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000
FXUS63 KGRR 230526
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
126 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA. A
WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLOUDS WITH IT OTHER THAN A CHANCE
OF A RAIN SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
NEXT WEEK ON TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE
ELEVATED WITH AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP IN PLACE. MOST OF
THE STRATUS CLOUDS THAT WERE EAST OF HWY 131 EARLIER HAVE
DISSIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO MAJOR FCST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST PERIOD.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MINOR ISSUES TO DEAL WITH INCLUDING POSSIBLE
STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND THEN THE CHC OF RAIN FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI WITH A WEAKENING FRONT.

WE HAVE ADDED SOME STRATUS CLOUD COVER TO THE FCST FOR TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT/THIS
MORNING. STRATUS HAS BEEN PESKY TODAY IN HOLDING ON AND NOT MIXING
OUT AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. THIS IS LIKELY TO THE CONTINUED FLOW OFF
OF LAKE HURON AND WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING IN
OVER THE AREA. THE STRATUS HAS SHOWN A QUICKER DISSIPATION OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR TWO...AND WE EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO
SUNSET. SOME REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER THE EAST UNTIL THE WIND
FLOW CHANGES AND THE TRAJECTORY IS NOT OFF OF LAKE HURON FOR THE
AREA.

WE HAVE LEFT IN THE CHC OF RAIN FOR THU NIGHT...BUT IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN. A DECENT UPPER
TROUGH/SFC FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL APPROACH THE AREA
ON THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL HEAD INTO
CANADA AND CLOSE OFF UP THERE. DOWN IN THE U.S....THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED AND HELP TO DAMPEN THE TROUGH OUT
DOWN HERE. LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DISSIPATES AS IT APPROACHES...
HELPING TO DISSIPATE ANY RAINFALL. SOME OF IT COULD SNEAK IN BEFORE
IT TOTALLY DRIES UP...BUT IT WILL NOT AFFECT THE AREA IN A
SIGNIFICANT WAY.

WE WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS HOLD ON OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDS ON. THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. IF WE CAN GET
RID OF THE CLOUDS SOON ENOUGH...60 WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH H850 TEMPS AROUND 10C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE LONG TERM. THE FIRST IS A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY. THE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE NEAR HUDSON BAY SO WE/RE NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS WITH IT. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
DRY BUT WILL DROP HIGHS 5 DEGREES OR SO FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE DYNAMIC AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS WILL MOVE
TOWARD WESTERN WISCONSIN BY MONDAY. SOME WARM ADVECTION TYPE PCPN
MAY DEVELOP MONDAY BUT DOESN/T LOOK TOO SIGNIFICANT AS THE LOW IS
FILLING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO
COME MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY WHEN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM BECAUSE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A TRAILING LOW OVER OKLAHOMA AND SLOWS THE FRONT UP A BIT.
THE TRAILING LOW ALSO PUSHES MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOO WHICH
SHOULD ENHANCE PCPN POTENTIAL. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THE MAIN
BATCH OF PCPN WOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY VS EARLIER TUESDAY WITH THE
GFS. TOOK A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR NOW...BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THINGS SLOW DOWN.

TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS APPROACHING 70 SEEM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN CWA LATE
MONDAY WITH 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WIDE MIX OF CONDITIONS WAS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z...FROM VFR
TO IFR. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR...BUT THERE WERE PATCHES OF
STRATUS AROUND. ONE PATCH WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER...NEAR
Y70...WITH ANOTHER PATCH OVER NW OH. BOTH AREAS WERE MOVING SLOWLY
WEST.  THERE WAS ALSO PATCHES OF FOG AROUND WHICH SHOULD EXPAND SOMEWHAT.

TRENDED THE TAFS MAINLY MVFR...BUT EXPECT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
IFR AROUND THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS
TO DISSIPATE.

BY LATE THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SHOWERS WILL
MOVE IN...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOR WESTERN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEADLINES TO BE NEEDED THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL COME UP SOME LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING WAVE MOVING IN. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH CRITERIA
UP TOWARD LUDINGTON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND AND WAVE
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT POSSIBLE SET OF HEADLINES WOULD BE FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT TIME FRAME ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THAT TIME. RIVERS ARE RUNNING AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. THE DRY WEATHER WILL ONLY
ALLOW THEM TO DROP OFF MORE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ








000
FXUS63 KGRR 230246
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1046 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA. A
WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLOUDS WITH IT OTHER THAN A CHANCE
OF A RAIN SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
NEXT WEEK ON TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE
ELEVATED WITH AN IDEAL RADATIONAL COOLING SET UP IN PLACE. MOST OF
THE STRATUS CLOUDS THAT WERE EAST OF HWY 131 EARLIER HAVE
DISSIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO MAJOR FCST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST PERIOD.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MINOR ISSUES TO DEAL WITH INCLUDING POSSIBLE
STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND THEN THE CHC OF RAIN FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI WITH A WEAKENING FRONT.

WE HAVE ADDED SOME STRATUS CLOUD COVER TO THE FCST FOR TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT/THIS
MORNING. STRATUS HAS BEEN PESKY TODAY IN HOLDING ON AND NOT MIXING
OUT AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. THIS IS LIKELY TO THE CONTINUED FLOW OFF
OF LAKE HURON AND WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING IN
OVER THE AREA. THE STRATUS HAS SHOWN A QUICKER DISSIPATION OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR TWO...AND WE EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO
SUNSET. SOME REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER THE EAST UNTIL THE WIND
FLOW CHANGES AND THE TRAJECTORY IS NOT OFF OF LAKE HURON FOR THE
AREA.

WE HAVE LEFT IN THE CHC OF RAIN FOR THU NIGHT...BUT IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN. A DECENT UPPER
TROUGH/SFC FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL APPROACH THE AREA
ON THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL HEAD INTO
CANADA AND CLOSE OFF UP THERE. DOWN IN THE U.S....THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED AND HELP TO DAMPEN THE TROUGH OUT
DOWN HERE. LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DISSIPATES AS IT APPROACHES...
HELPING TO DISSIPATE ANY RAINFALL. SOME OF IT COULD SNEAK IN BEFORE
IT TOTALLY DRIES UP...BUT IT WILL NOT AFFECT THE AREA IN A
SIGNIFICANT WAY.

WE WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS HOLD ON OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDS ON. THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. IF WE CAN GET
RID OF THE CLOUDS SOON ENOUGH...60 WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH H850 TEMPS AROUND 10C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE LONG TERM. THE FIRST IS A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY. THE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE NEAR HUDSON BAY SO WE/RE NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS WITH IT. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
DRY BUT WILL DROP HIGHS 5 DEGREES OR SO FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE DYNAMIC AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS WILL MOVE
TOWARD WESTERN WISCONSIN BY MONDAY. SOME WARM ADVECTION TYPE PCPN
MAY DEVELOP MONDAY BUT DOESN/T LOOK TOO SIGNIFICANT AS THE LOW IS
FILLING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO
COME MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY WHEN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM BECAUSE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A TRAILING LOW OVER OKLAHOMA AND SLOWS THE FRONT UP A BIT.
THE TRAILING LOW ALSO PUSHES MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOO WHICH
SHOULD ENHANCE PCPN POTENTIAL. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THE MAIN
BATCH OF PCPN WOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY VS EARLIER TUESDAY WITH THE
GFS. TOOK A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR NOW...BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THINGS SLOW DOWN.

TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS APPROACHING 70 SEEM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN CWA LATE
MONDAY WITH 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 803 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

STUBBORN BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK WITH BASES AROUND 2000 FT CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE AREA FROM BTL TO LAN TO MBS. WILL FCST THESE CLOUDS
DISSIPATING BY 03Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE NIGHTTIME HAS
SETTLED IN AND LACK OF MIXING UNDER THE SFC RIDGE COULD MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY GET RID OF THIS STRATUS TONIGHT.

THE OTHER ISSUE FOR LATER TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW AREAS
OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP. CURRENTLY THE SFC DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND FCST LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN LOWER 30S. TIME OF YEAR AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIME
UNDER THE SFC RIDGE SUGGESTS THAT NOCTURNAL STRATUS/FOG HAS A
DECENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z AND LINGERING THROUGH
14-15Z.

THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF THE CURRENT CLOUD DECK EAST OF GRR DOES
NOT DISSIPATE... THEN THE BTL-LAN-MBS CORRIDOR WOULD NOT BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE FOG AND LOWER BASED STRATUS.

SHOULD ANY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BE PRESENT THURSDAY MORNING... THE
TREND SHOULD BE FOR VFR TO DEVELOP EVERYWHERE BY 18Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEADLINES TO BE NEEDED THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL COME UP SOME LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING WAVE MOVING IN. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH CRITERIA
UP TOWARD LUDINGTON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND AND WAVE
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT POSSIBLE SET OF HEADLINES WOULD BE FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT TIME FRAME ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THAT TIME. RIVERS ARE RUNNING AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. THE DRY WEATHER WILL ONLY
ALLOW THEM TO DROP OFF MORE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ








000
FXUS63 KGRR 230003
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
803 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA. A
WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLOUDS WITH IT OTHER THAN A CHANCE
OF A RAIN SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
NEXT WEEK ON TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO MAJOR FCST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST PERIOD.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MINOR ISSUES TO DEAL WITH INCLUDING POSSIBLE
STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND THEN THE CHC OF RAIN FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI WITH A WEAKENING FRONT.

WE HAVE ADDED SOME STRATUS CLOUD COVER TO THE FCST FOR TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT/THIS
MORNING. STRATUS HAS BEEN PESKY TODAY IN HOLDING ON AND NOT MIXING
OUT AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. THIS IS LIKELY TO THE CONTINUED FLOW OFF
OF LAKE HURON AND WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING IN
OVER THE AREA. THE STRATUS HAS SHOWN A QUICKER DISSIPATION OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR TWO...AND WE EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO
SUNSET. SOME REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER THE EAST UNTIL THE WIND
FLOW CHANGES AND THE TRAJECTORY IS NOT OFF OF LAKE HURON FOR THE
AREA.

WE HAVE LEFT IN THE CHC OF RAIN FOR THU NIGHT...BUT IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN. A DECENT UPPER
TROUGH/SFC FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL APPROACH THE AREA
ON THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL HEAD INTO
CANADA AND CLOSE OFF UP THERE. DOWN IN THE U.S....THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED AND HELP TO DAMPEN THE TROUGH OUT
DOWN HERE. LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DISSIPATES AS IT APPROACHES...
HELPING TO DISSIPATE ANY RAINFALL. SOME OF IT COULD SNEAK IN BEFORE
IT TOTALLY DRIES UP...BUT IT WILL NOT AFFECT THE AREA IN A
SIGNIFICANT WAY.

WE WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS HOLD ON OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDS ON. THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. IF WE CAN GET
RID OF THE CLOUDS SOON ENOUGH...60 WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH H850 TEMPS AROUND 10C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE LONG TERM. THE FIRST IS A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY. THE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE NEAR HUDSON BAY SO WE/RE NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS WITH IT. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
DRY BUT WILL DROP HIGHS 5 DEGREES OR SO FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE DYNAMIC AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS WILL MOVE
TOWARD WESTERN WISCONSIN BY MONDAY. SOME WARM ADVECTION TYPE PCPN
MAY DEVELOP MONDAY BUT DOESN/T LOOK TOO SIGNIFICANT AS THE LOW IS
FILLING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO
COME MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY WHEN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM BECAUSE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A TRAILING LOW OVER OKLAHOMA AND SLOWS THE FRONT UP A BIT.
THE TRAILING LOW ALSO PUSHES MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOO WHICH
SHOULD ENHANCE PCPN POTENTIAL. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THE MAIN
BATCH OF PCPN WOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY VS EARLIER TUESDAY WITH THE
GFS. TOOK A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR NOW...BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THINGS SLOW DOWN.

TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS APPROACHING 70 SEEM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN CWA LATE
MONDAY WITH 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 803 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

STUBBORN BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK WITH BASES AROUND 2000 FT CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE AREA FROM BTL TO LAN TO MBS. WILL FCST THESE CLOUDS
DISSIPATING BY 03Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE NIGHTTIME HAS
SETTLED IN AND LACK OF MIXING UNDER THE SFC RIDGE COULD MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY GET RID OF THIS STRATUS TONIGHT.

THE OTHER ISSUE FOR LATER TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW AREAS
OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP. CURRENTLY THE SFC DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND FCST LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN LOWER 30S. TIME OF YEAR AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIME
UNDER THE SFC RIDGE SUGGESTS THAT NOCTURNAL STRATUS/FOG HAS A
DECENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z AND LINGERING THROUGH
14-15Z.

THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF THE CURRENT CLOUD DECK EAST OF GRR DOES
NOT DISSIPATE... THEN THE BTL-LAN-MBS CORRIDOR WOULD NOT BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE FOG AND LOWER BASED STRATUS.

SHOULD ANY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BE PRESENT THURSDAY MORNING... THE
TREND SHOULD BE FOR VFR TO DEVELOP EVERYWHERE BY 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEADLINES TO BE NEEDED THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL COME UP SOME LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING WAVE MOVING IN. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH CRITERIA
UP TOWARD LUDINGTON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND AND WAVE
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT POSSIBLE SET OF HEADLINES WOULD BE FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT TIME FRAME ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THAT TIME. RIVERS ARE RUNNING AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. THE DRY WEATHER WILL ONLY
ALLOW THEM TO DROP OFF MORE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ








000
FXUS63 KGRR 230003
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
803 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA. A
WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLOUDS WITH IT OTHER THAN A CHANCE
OF A RAIN SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
NEXT WEEK ON TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO MAJOR FCST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST PERIOD.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MINOR ISSUES TO DEAL WITH INCLUDING POSSIBLE
STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND THEN THE CHC OF RAIN FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI WITH A WEAKENING FRONT.

WE HAVE ADDED SOME STRATUS CLOUD COVER TO THE FCST FOR TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT/THIS
MORNING. STRATUS HAS BEEN PESKY TODAY IN HOLDING ON AND NOT MIXING
OUT AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. THIS IS LIKELY TO THE CONTINUED FLOW OFF
OF LAKE HURON AND WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING IN
OVER THE AREA. THE STRATUS HAS SHOWN A QUICKER DISSIPATION OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR TWO...AND WE EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO
SUNSET. SOME REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER THE EAST UNTIL THE WIND
FLOW CHANGES AND THE TRAJECTORY IS NOT OFF OF LAKE HURON FOR THE
AREA.

WE HAVE LEFT IN THE CHC OF RAIN FOR THU NIGHT...BUT IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN. A DECENT UPPER
TROUGH/SFC FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL APPROACH THE AREA
ON THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL HEAD INTO
CANADA AND CLOSE OFF UP THERE. DOWN IN THE U.S....THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED AND HELP TO DAMPEN THE TROUGH OUT
DOWN HERE. LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DISSIPATES AS IT APPROACHES...
HELPING TO DISSIPATE ANY RAINFALL. SOME OF IT COULD SNEAK IN BEFORE
IT TOTALLY DRIES UP...BUT IT WILL NOT AFFECT THE AREA IN A
SIGNIFICANT WAY.

WE WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS HOLD ON OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDS ON. THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. IF WE CAN GET
RID OF THE CLOUDS SOON ENOUGH...60 WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH H850 TEMPS AROUND 10C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE LONG TERM. THE FIRST IS A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY. THE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE NEAR HUDSON BAY SO WE/RE NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS WITH IT. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
DRY BUT WILL DROP HIGHS 5 DEGREES OR SO FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE DYNAMIC AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS WILL MOVE
TOWARD WESTERN WISCONSIN BY MONDAY. SOME WARM ADVECTION TYPE PCPN
MAY DEVELOP MONDAY BUT DOESN/T LOOK TOO SIGNIFICANT AS THE LOW IS
FILLING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO
COME MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY WHEN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM BECAUSE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A TRAILING LOW OVER OKLAHOMA AND SLOWS THE FRONT UP A BIT.
THE TRAILING LOW ALSO PUSHES MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOO WHICH
SHOULD ENHANCE PCPN POTENTIAL. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THE MAIN
BATCH OF PCPN WOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY VS EARLIER TUESDAY WITH THE
GFS. TOOK A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR NOW...BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THINGS SLOW DOWN.

TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS APPROACHING 70 SEEM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN CWA LATE
MONDAY WITH 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 803 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

STUBBORN BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK WITH BASES AROUND 2000 FT CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE AREA FROM BTL TO LAN TO MBS. WILL FCST THESE CLOUDS
DISSIPATING BY 03Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE NIGHTTIME HAS
SETTLED IN AND LACK OF MIXING UNDER THE SFC RIDGE COULD MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY GET RID OF THIS STRATUS TONIGHT.

THE OTHER ISSUE FOR LATER TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW AREAS
OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP. CURRENTLY THE SFC DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND FCST LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN LOWER 30S. TIME OF YEAR AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIME
UNDER THE SFC RIDGE SUGGESTS THAT NOCTURNAL STRATUS/FOG HAS A
DECENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z AND LINGERING THROUGH
14-15Z.

THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF THE CURRENT CLOUD DECK EAST OF GRR DOES
NOT DISSIPATE... THEN THE BTL-LAN-MBS CORRIDOR WOULD NOT BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE FOG AND LOWER BASED STRATUS.

SHOULD ANY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BE PRESENT THURSDAY MORNING... THE
TREND SHOULD BE FOR VFR TO DEVELOP EVERYWHERE BY 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEADLINES TO BE NEEDED THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL COME UP SOME LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING WAVE MOVING IN. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH CRITERIA
UP TOWARD LUDINGTON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND AND WAVE
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT POSSIBLE SET OF HEADLINES WOULD BE FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT TIME FRAME ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THAT TIME. RIVERS ARE RUNNING AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. THE DRY WEATHER WILL ONLY
ALLOW THEM TO DROP OFF MORE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ








000
FXUS63 KGRR 221925
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA. A
WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLOUDS WITH IT OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF A RAIN
SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
NEXT WEEK ON TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO MAJOR FCST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST PERIOD.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MINOR ISSUES TO DEAL WITH INCLUDING POSSIBLE
STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND THEN THE CHC OF RAIN FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI WITH A WEAKENING FRONT.

WE HAVE ADDED SOME STRATUS CLOUD COVER TO THE FCST FOR TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT/THIS
MORNING. STRATUS HAS BEEN PESKY TODAY IN HOLDING ON AND NOT MIXING
OUT AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. THIS IS LIKELY TO THE CONTINUED FLOW OFF
OF LAKE HURON AND WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING IN
OVER THE AREA. THE STRATUS HAS SHOWN A QUICKER DISSIPATION OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR TWO...AND WE EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO
SUNSET. SOME REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER THE EAST UNTIL THE WIND
FLOW CHANGES AND THE TRAJECTORY IS NOT OFF OF LAKE HURON FOR THE
AREA.

WE HAVE LEFT IN THE CHC OF RAIN FOR THU NIGHT...BUT IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN. A DECENT UPPER
TROUGH/SFC FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL APPROACH THE AREA
ON THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL HEAD INTO
CANADA AND CLOSE OFF UP THERE. DOWN IN THE U.S....THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED AND HELP TO DAMPEN THE TROUGH OUT
DOWN HERE. LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DISSIPATES AS IT APPROACHES...
HELPING TO DISSIPATE ANY RAINFALL. SOME OF IT COULD SNEAK IN BEFORE
IT TOTALLY DRIES UP...BUT IT WILL NOT AFFECT THE AREA IN A
SIGNIFICANT WAY.

WE WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS HOLD ON OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDS ON. THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. IF WE CAN GET
RID OF THE CLOUDS SOON ENOUGH...60 WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH H850 TEMPS AROUND 10C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE LONG TERM. THE FIRST IS A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY. THE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE NEAR HUDSON BAY SO WE/RE NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS WITH IT. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
DRY BUT WILL DROP HIGHS 5 DEGREES OR SO FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE DYNAMIC AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS WILL MOVE
TOWARD WESTERN WISCONSIN BY MONDAY. SOME WARM ADVECTION TYPE PCPN
MAY DEVELOP MONDAY BUT DOESN/T LOOK TOO SIGNIFICANT AS THE LOW IS
FILLING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO
COME MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY WHEN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM BECAUSE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A TRAILING LOW OVER OKLAHOMA AND SLOWS THE FRONT UP A BIT.
THE TRAILING LOW ALSO PUSHES MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOO WHICH
SHOULD ENHANCE PCPN POTENTIAL. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THE MAIN
BATCH OF PCPN WOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY VS EARLIER TUESDAY WITH THE
GFS. TOOK A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR NOW...BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THINGS SLOW DOWN.

TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS APPROACHING 70 SEEM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN CWA LATE
MONDAY WITH 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN ISSUES THE STRATOCU AFFECTING ALL OF THE TAF SITES EXCEPT
KMKG. AS TEMP WARM ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE THE STRATOCU DISSIPATE FROM
THE EAST AND WEST. SO LANSING SHOULD BE THE LAST TO CLEAR AND KGRR
THE FIRST. WE SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEADLINES TO BE NEEDED THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL COME UP SOME LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING WAVE MOVING IN. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH CRITERIA
UP TOWARD LUDINGTON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND AND WAVE
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT POSSIBLE SET OF HEADLINES WOULD BE FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT TIME FRAME ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THAT TIME. RIVERS ARE RUNNING AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. THE DRY WEATHER WILL ONLY
ALLOW THEM TO DROP OFF MORE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 221715
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
115 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH VERY LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN. IN FACT...THE BULK OF
THE NEXT 5 DAYS SHOULD BE DRY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN CONTROL MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
60S SHOULD BE ACHIEVED FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. WE COULD PUSH TOWARDS 70 DEGREES NEXT
MONDAY. OVERALL...MAINLY DRY AND RATHER BENIGN AUTUMN WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH CLOUD TRENDS TODAY AND
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT BEING THE MAIN FOCUS.

REGARDING CLOUDS...STRATOCUMULUS HAS PUSHED INTO THE CWA FROM THE
EAST IN A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. DELTA T/S OFF OF LAKE
HURON ON IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS C...WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR LAKE CLOUDS. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR THEY PUSH INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND HOW PREVALENT THEY BECOME THROUGH THE DAY. FEEL
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE INROADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE PRE
DAWN HOURS...POSSIBLY REACHING GRAND RAPIDS AND KALAMAZOO. AFTER
SUNRISE THOUGH...WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN EROSION TO THE CLOUDS DUE TO
MIXING AND THE FACT THAT RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER WITH
TIME. SKIES WILL VARY FROM MAINLY CLEAR TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN AT
DAYBREAK TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG U.S. 127. THE TREND SHOULD BE
TOWARDS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN ALL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
STRATOCU ERODES. LOCATIONS TOWARDS KJXN SHOULD SEE THE MOST CLOUDS
THIS MORNING.

CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS EXIST THURSDAY NIGHT. FEEL THE BULK OF ANY
LIGHT RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRI. HAVE 30/40 PCT CHANCES
IN THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING...TAPERING TO 20 PCT OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO THINKING SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS...TAPERING TO SPRINKLES THEN ENDING. SKIES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TIME.

EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FAIR WX FRIDAY
NIGHT AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH DRY SATURDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE WX PATTERN AND
PRODUCE FAIR WX SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD REACH THE 60S.

MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MILDEST DAY AS STRONG SW FLOW WAA DEVELOPS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP TO BOOST
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. A FAIRLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN ISSUES THE STRATOCU AFFECTING ALL OF THE TAF SITES EXCEPT
KMKG. AS TEMP WARM ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE THE STRATOCU DISSIPATE FROM
THE EAST AND WEST. SO LANSING SHOULD BE THE LAST TO CLEAR AND KGRR
THE FIRST. WE SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WE LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 200 AM...AS THE FLOW HAS
SHIFTED OFF SHORE...OUT OF THE EAST. NEARSHORE WAVE BUOYS AT
LUDINGTON AND PORT SHELDON CONFIRM CONDITIONS FALLING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 2 FEET AT 200 AM.

FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH A RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
COME UP BRIEFLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. WE MAY SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A TIME THURSDAY EVENING NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO ROLL WITH A HEADLINE...GIVEN THE
BRIEF PERIOD (21Z THURS - 05Z FRI) AND THE FACT THAT WAVES ONLY LOOK
TO REACH THE 3-4 FOOT RANGE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH RIVERS CURRENTLY AT LOW FLOWS
AND LITTLE IF ANY RAIN FORECAST FROM NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 221715
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
115 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH VERY LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN. IN FACT...THE BULK OF
THE NEXT 5 DAYS SHOULD BE DRY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN CONTROL MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
60S SHOULD BE ACHIEVED FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. WE COULD PUSH TOWARDS 70 DEGREES NEXT
MONDAY. OVERALL...MAINLY DRY AND RATHER BENIGN AUTUMN WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH CLOUD TRENDS TODAY AND
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT BEING THE MAIN FOCUS.

REGARDING CLOUDS...STRATOCUMULUS HAS PUSHED INTO THE CWA FROM THE
EAST IN A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. DELTA T/S OFF OF LAKE
HURON ON IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS C...WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR LAKE CLOUDS. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR THEY PUSH INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND HOW PREVALENT THEY BECOME THROUGH THE DAY. FEEL
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE INROADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE PRE
DAWN HOURS...POSSIBLY REACHING GRAND RAPIDS AND KALAMAZOO. AFTER
SUNRISE THOUGH...WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN EROSION TO THE CLOUDS DUE TO
MIXING AND THE FACT THAT RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER WITH
TIME. SKIES WILL VARY FROM MAINLY CLEAR TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN AT
DAYBREAK TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG U.S. 127. THE TREND SHOULD BE
TOWARDS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN ALL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
STRATOCU ERODES. LOCATIONS TOWARDS KJXN SHOULD SEE THE MOST CLOUDS
THIS MORNING.

CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS EXIST THURSDAY NIGHT. FEEL THE BULK OF ANY
LIGHT RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRI. HAVE 30/40 PCT CHANCES
IN THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING...TAPERING TO 20 PCT OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO THINKING SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS...TAPERING TO SPRINKLES THEN ENDING. SKIES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TIME.

EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FAIR WX FRIDAY
NIGHT AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH DRY SATURDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE WX PATTERN AND
PRODUCE FAIR WX SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD REACH THE 60S.

MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MILDEST DAY AS STRONG SW FLOW WAA DEVELOPS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP TO BOOST
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. A FAIRLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN ISSUES THE STRATOCU AFFECTING ALL OF THE TAF SITES EXCEPT
KMKG. AS TEMP WARM ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE THE STRATOCU DISSIPATE FROM
THE EAST AND WEST. SO LANSING SHOULD BE THE LAST TO CLEAR AND KGRR
THE FIRST. WE SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WE LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 200 AM...AS THE FLOW HAS
SHIFTED OFF SHORE...OUT OF THE EAST. NEARSHORE WAVE BUOYS AT
LUDINGTON AND PORT SHELDON CONFIRM CONDITIONS FALLING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 2 FEET AT 200 AM.

FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH A RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
COME UP BRIEFLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. WE MAY SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A TIME THURSDAY EVENING NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO ROLL WITH A HEADLINE...GIVEN THE
BRIEF PERIOD (21Z THURS - 05Z FRI) AND THE FACT THAT WAVES ONLY LOOK
TO REACH THE 3-4 FOOT RANGE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH RIVERS CURRENTLY AT LOW FLOWS
AND LITTLE IF ANY RAIN FORECAST FROM NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 221144
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
744 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH VERY LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN. IN FACT...THE BULK OF
THE NEXT 5 DAYS SHOULD BE DRY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN CONTROL MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
60S SHOULD BE ACHIEVED FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. WE COULD PUSH TOWARDS 70 DEGREES NEXT
MONDAY. OVERALL...MAINLY DRY AND RATHER BENIGN AUTUMN WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH CLOUD TRENDS TODAY AND
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT BEING THE MAIN FOCUS.

REGARDING CLOUDS...STRATOCUMULUS HAS PUSHED INTO THE CWA FROM THE
EAST IN A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. DELTA T/S OFF OF LAKE
HURON ON IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS C...WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR LAKE CLOUDS. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR THEY PUSH INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND HOW PREVALENT THEY BECOME THROUGH THE DAY. FEEL
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE INROADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE PRE
DAWN HOURS...POSSIBLY REACHING GRAND RAPIDS AND KALAMAZOO. AFTER
SUNRISE THOUGH...WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN EROSION TO THE CLOUDS DUE TO
MIXING AND THE FACT THAT RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER WITH
TIME. SKIES WILL VARY FROM MAINLY CLEAR TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN AT
DAYBREAK TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG U.S. 127. THE TREND SHOULD BE
TOWARDS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN ALL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
STRATOCU ERODES. LOCATIONS TOWARDS KJXN SHOULD SEE THE MOST CLOUDS
THIS MORNING.

CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS EXIST THURSDAY NIGHT. FEEL THE BULK OF ANY
LIGHT RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRI. HAVE 30/40 PCT CHANCES
IN THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING...TAPERING TO 20 PCT OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO THINKING SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS...TAPERING TO SPRINKLES THEN ENDING. SKIES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TIME.

EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FAIR WX FRIDAY
NIGHT AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH DRY SATURDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE WX PATTERN AND
PRODUCE FAIR WX SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD REACH THE 60S.

MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MILDEST DAY AS STRONG SW FLOW WAA DEVELOPS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP TO BOOST
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. A FAIRLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO NUDGE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA
WITH ORIGINS OFF OF LAKE HURON. FEEL THE MAXIMUM EXTENT TO THE
WEST WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING A
PUSH INTO KMKG...KGRR AND KAZO. MVFR CEILINGS WILL IMPACT KLAN
AND KJXN THE MOST WITH CEILINGS HANGING ON POSSIBLY INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS. BY 18Z OR SO...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AS
THE CEILINGS GRADUALLY ERODE. VFR WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 10 KNOTS THE ENTIRE TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WE LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 200 AM...AS THE FLOW HAS
SHIFTED OFF SHORE...OUT OF THE EAST. NEARSHORE WAVE BUOYS AT
LUDINGTON AND PORT SHELDON CONFIRM CONDITIONS FALLING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 2 FEET AT 200 AM.

FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH A RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
COME UP BRIEFLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. WE MAY SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A TIME THURSDAY EVENING NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO ROLL WITH A HEADLINE...GIVEN THE
BRIEF PERIOD (21Z THURS - 05Z FRI) AND THE FACT THAT WAVES ONLY LOOK
TO REACH THE 3-4 FOOT RANGE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH RIVERS CURRENTLY AT LOW FLOWS
AND LITTLE IF ANY RAIN FORECAST FROM NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 220729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH VERY LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN. IN FACT...THE BULK OF
THE NEXT 5 DAYS SHOULD BE DRY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN CONTROL MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
60S SHOULD BE ACHIEVED FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. WE COULD PUSH TOWARDS 70 DEGREES NEXT
MONDAY. OVERALL...MAINLY DRY AND RATHER BENIGN AUTUMN WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH CLOUD TRENDS TODAY AND
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT BEING THE MAIN FOCUS.

REGARDING CLOUDS...STRATOCUMULUS HAS PUSHED INTO THE CWA FROM THE
EAST IN A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. DELTA T/S OFF OF LAKE
HURON ON IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS C...WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR LAKE CLOUDS. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR THEY PUSH INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND HOW PREVALENT THEY BECOME THROUGH THE DAY. FEEL
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE INROADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE PRE
DAWN HOURS...POSSIBLY REACHING GRAND RAPIDS AND KALAMAZOO. AFTER
SUNRISE THOUGH...WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN EROSION TO THE CLOUDS DUE TO
MIXING AND THE FACT THAT RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER WITH
TIME. SKIES WILL VARY FROM MAINLY CLEAR TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN AT
DAYBREAK TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG U.S. 127. THE TREND SHOULD BE
TOWARDS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN ALL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
STRATOCU ERODES. LOCATIONS TOWARDS KJXN SHOULD SEE THE MOST CLOUDS
THIS MORNING.

CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS EXIST THURSDAY NIGHT. FEEL THE BULK OF ANY
LIGHT RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRI. HAVE 30/40 PCT CHANCES
IN THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING...TAPERING TO 20 PCT OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO THINKING SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS...TAPERING TO SPRINKLES THEN ENDING. SKIES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TIME.

EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FAIR WX FRIDAY
NIGHT AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH DRY SATURDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE WX PATTERN AND
PRODUCE FAIR WX SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD REACH THE 60S.

MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MILDEST DAY AS STRONG SW FLOW WAA DEVELOPS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP TO BOOST
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. A FAIRLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY MAINLY AT OUR
EASTERNMOST TERMINALS (KLAN/KJXN) DUE TO LOW CLOUDS WHICH MAY DRIFT
IN FROM THE NE. WINDS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NE TO
EAST AOB 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WE LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 200 AM...AS THE FLOW HAS
SHIFTED OFF SHORE...OUT OF THE EAST. NEARSHORE WAVE BUOYS AT
LUDINGTON AND PORT SHELDON CONFIRM CONDITIONS FALLING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 2 FEET AT 200 AM.

FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH A RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
COME UP BRIEFLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. WE MAY SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A TIME THURSDAY EVENING NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO ROLL WITH A HEADLINE...GIVEN THE
BRIEF PERIOD (21Z THURS - 05Z FRI) AND THE FACT THAT WAVES ONLY LOOK
TO REACH THE 3-4 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH RIVERS CURRENTLY AT LOW FLOWS
AND LITTLE IF ANY RAIN FORECAST FROM NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE











000
FXUS63 KGRR 220344
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FROM THE NORTH AND THAT WILL
RESULT IN COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOK MAINLY
DRY. HOWEVER A WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY AND MAINLY DEAL WITH CLOUDS.

LATEST VIS LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS CLEARING RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTH AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOOK FOR THIS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST. THE ONLY ISSUES IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE
HURON TONIGHT. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS.
H95 RH
VALUES SUGGEST THAT 80 PERCENT OR HIGHER VALUES WILL REMAIN EAST OF
US-127...PERHAPS JUST CLIPPING THE EASTERN COUNTIES. MAINLY SUNNY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LACKING HOWEVER AND CHANCES FOR
PCPN ARE PRETTY LOW.

TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TONIGHT NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS AND LOWER
TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A CONSIDERABLE
WARM UP AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  SUBSIDENCE WILL ACT TO
KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WE GO THROUGH THE PERIOD.  BY SUNDAY...MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD REACH THE 60S.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL USE MOST OF ITS ENERGY UP IN CANADA. HERE IN
MI WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS AND THE WARMUP WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED
UNTIL LATER AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR MONDAY AS MODELS SHOW A LOW LEVEL JET
ARRIVING.  NEW HIGH RES EURO HAS 850 LIFTED INDEX VALUES DOWN TO - 3
DEG C 12Z MON ALONG THE LAKESHORE.  THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST
WITH THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...BUT BY 18Z 750 MB LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ARE DOWN TO -1 DEG C  AROUND MUSKEGON.  AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
RISK FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.  I WILL KEEP THE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING FOR MONDAY GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY MAINLY AT OUR
EASTERNMOST TERMINALS (KLAN/KJXN) DUE TO LOW CLOUDS WHICH MAY DRIFT
IN FROM THE NE. WINDS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NE TO
EAST AOB 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WAVES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO ISSUES WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93









000
FXUS63 KGRR 220344
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FROM THE NORTH AND THAT WILL
RESULT IN COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOK MAINLY
DRY. HOWEVER A WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY AND MAINLY DEAL WITH CLOUDS.

LATEST VIS LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS CLEARING RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTH AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOOK FOR THIS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST. THE ONLY ISSUES IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE
HURON TONIGHT. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS.
H95 RH
VALUES SUGGEST THAT 80 PERCENT OR HIGHER VALUES WILL REMAIN EAST OF
US-127...PERHAPS JUST CLIPPING THE EASTERN COUNTIES. MAINLY SUNNY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LACKING HOWEVER AND CHANCES FOR
PCPN ARE PRETTY LOW.

TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TONIGHT NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS AND LOWER
TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A CONSIDERABLE
WARM UP AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  SUBSIDENCE WILL ACT TO
KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WE GO THROUGH THE PERIOD.  BY SUNDAY...MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD REACH THE 60S.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL USE MOST OF ITS ENERGY UP IN CANADA. HERE IN
MI WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS AND THE WARMUP WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED
UNTIL LATER AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR MONDAY AS MODELS SHOW A LOW LEVEL JET
ARRIVING.  NEW HIGH RES EURO HAS 850 LIFTED INDEX VALUES DOWN TO - 3
DEG C 12Z MON ALONG THE LAKESHORE.  THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST
WITH THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...BUT BY 18Z 750 MB LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ARE DOWN TO -1 DEG C  AROUND MUSKEGON.  AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
RISK FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.  I WILL KEEP THE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING FOR MONDAY GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY MAINLY AT OUR
EASTERNMOST TERMINALS (KLAN/KJXN) DUE TO LOW CLOUDS WHICH MAY DRIFT
IN FROM THE NE. WINDS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NE TO
EAST AOB 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WAVES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO ISSUES WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93









000
FXUS63 KGRR 212342
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
742 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FROM THE NORTH AND THAT WILL
RESULT IN COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOK MAINLY
DRY. HOWEVER A WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY AND MAINLY DEAL WITH CLOUDS.

LATEST VIS LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS CLEARING RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTH AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOOK FOR THIS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST. THE ONLY ISSUES IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE
HURON TONIGHT. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS.
H95 RH
VALUES SUGGEST THAT 80 PERCENT OR HIGHER VALUES WILL REMAIN EAST OF
US-127...PERHAPS JUST CLIPPING THE EASTERN COUNTIES. MAINLY SUNNY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LACKING HOWEVER AND CHANCES FOR
PCPN ARE PRETTY LOW.

TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TONIGHT NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS AND LOWER
TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A CONSIDERABLE
WARM UP AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  SUBSIDENCE WILL ACT TO
KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WE GO THROUGH THE PERIOD.  BY SUNDAY...MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD REACH THE 60S.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL USE MOST OF ITS ENERGY UP IN CANADA. HERE IN
MI WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS AND THE WARMUP WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED
UNTIL LATER AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR MONDAY AS MODELS SHOW A LOW LEVEL JET
ARRIVING.  NEW HIGH RES EURO HAS 850 LIFTED INDEX VALUES DOWN TO - 3
DEG C 12Z MON ALONG THE LAKESHORE.  THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST
WITH THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...BUT BY 18Z 750 MB LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ARE DOWN TO -1 DEG C  AROUND MUSKEGON.  AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
RISK FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.  I WILL KEEP THE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING FOR MONDAY GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY AIR IS WORKING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RATHER RAPID IMPROVEMENT. SOUTHERN TAF
SITES...KAZO...KBTL AND KJXN WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT. VFR
IS MAINLY EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SNEAK IN AROUND KLAN AND KJXN. THIS COULD
LEAD TO A BRIEF MVFR BKN DECK AROUND DAWN WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVEN
THIS COULD BE A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC. LATER UPDATES MAY CONSIDER
REMOVING THIS FROM THE TAFS IF DRY AIR WINS OUT IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WAVES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO ISSUES WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...JAM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93








000
FXUS63 KGRR 211916
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FROM THE NORTH AND THAT WILL
RESULT IN COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOK MAINLY
DRY. HOWEVER A WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY AND MAINLY DEAL WITH CLOUDS.

LATEST VIS LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS CLEARING RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTH AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOOK FOR THIS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST. THE ONLY ISSUES IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE
HURON TONIGHT. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS.
H95 RH
VALUES SUGGEST THAT 80 PERCENT OR HIGHER VALUES WILL REMAIN EAST OF
US-127...PERHAPS JUST CLIPPING THE EASTERN COUNTIES. MAINLY SUNNY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LACKING HOWEVER AND CHANCES FOR
PCPN ARE PRETTY LOW.

TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TONIGHT NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS AND LOWER
TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU.



.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A CONSIDERABLE
WARM UP AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  SUBSIDENCE WILL ACT TO
KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WE GO THROUGH THE PERIOD.  BY SUNDAY...MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD REACH THE 60S.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL USE MOST OF ITS ENERGY UP IN CANADA. HERE IN
MI WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS AND THE WARMUP WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED
UNTIL LATER AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR MONDAY AS MODELS SHOW A LOW LEVEL JET
ARRIVING.  NEW HIGH RES EURO HAS 850 LIFTED INDEX VALUES DOWN TO - 3
DEG C 12Z MON ALONG THE LAKESHORE.  THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST
WITH THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...BUT BY 18Z 750 MB LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ARE DOWN TO -1 DEG C  AROUND MUSKEGON.  AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
RISK FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.  I WILL KEEP THE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING FOR MONDAY GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A DRIER AIRMASS WAS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVING FROM MVFR TO VFR BETWEEN KGRR AND KFFX.
BY 22Z IT APPEARS ALL TAF SITES WILL END UP VFR. SOME CU COULD
REDEVELOP WED...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT CLOUD BASES WILL
END UP VFR AS WELL.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WAVES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO ISSUES WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93











000
FXUS63 KGRR 211755
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
155 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

RATHER QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THE BULK OF THE TIME. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS
WEEK WARMING INTO THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VERY LITTLE TO BE CONCERNED WITH WEATHER WISE IN THE SHORT TERM...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLOUDS. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
THE CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EAST
TODAY.

NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SOME SPRINKLES TO AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM CLARE...TO IONIA TO
BATTLE CREEK. BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARDS U.S. 127. DELTA T/S WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TODAY WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING AROUND -1C
OVER LAKE HURON.

REGARDING CLOUDS WENT A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WE KEEP A NORTHEAST FLOW AND DELTA T/S OF AT LEAST 10 DEGREE C OFF
OF LAKE HURON THROUGH MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. NAM12 RH PROGS IN THE
950-900MB LAYER BEAR THIS OUT. LOOKING FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY...TRYING TO TREND PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
THE EAST MAY HANG ON TO CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND EVEN LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY BASED ON THE FLOW REGIME OFF OF LAKE HURON.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 50S ON THURSDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE THAT DAY AND
WARMER 850MB TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FAIR AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COME THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AND FAIR WX WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND FIVE TO AS MUCH AS
FIFTEEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MILDEST WEATHER WILL COME SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A DRIER AIRMASS WAS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVING FROM MVFR TO VFR BETWEEN KGRR AND KFFX.
BY 22Z IT APPEARS ALL TAF SITES WILL END UP VFR. SOME CU COULD
REDEVELOP WED...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT CLOUD BASES WILL
END UP VFR AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FROM ST. JOE TO MANISTEE INTO
TONIGHT. WE SHORTENED THE END TIME OF THE ADVISORY UP TO 06Z...AND
IT MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED EARLY AT THE MID EVENING UPDATE.
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING WINDS TO 30 KNOTS IN
SPOTS AND WAVES OF 4 TO 7 FEET. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NOT
THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK...WITH THE SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
TURNING MORE OFF SHORE WITH TIME. THE NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING TRY
TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. QUIET
CONDITIONS OUT ON THE LAKE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE REGION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS THIS WEEK. RIVER LEVELS ARE ALL WITHIN BANK AND
VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OR SO.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 211148
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
748 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

RATHER QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THE BULK OF THE TIME. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS
WEEK WARMING INTO THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VERY LITTLE TO BE CONCERNED WITH WEATHER WISE IN THE SHORT TERM...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLOUDS. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
THE CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EAST
TODAY.

NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SOME SPRINKLES TO AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM CLARE...TO IONIA TO
BATTLE CREEK. BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARDS U.S. 127. DELTA T/S WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TODAY WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING AROUND -1C
OVER LAKE HURON.

REGARDING CLOUDS WENT A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WE KEEP A NORTHEAST FLOW AND DELTA T/S OF AT LEAST 10 DEGREE C OFF
OF LAKE HURON THROUGH MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. NAM12 RH PROGS IN THE
950-900MB LAYER BEAR THIS OUT. LOOKING FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY...TRYING TO TREND PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
THE EAST MAY HANG ON TO CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND EVEN LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY BASED ON THE FLOW REGIME OFF OF LAKE HURON.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 50S ON THURSDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE THAT DAY AND
WARMER 850MB TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FAIR AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COME THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AND FAIR WX WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND FIVE TO AS MUCH AS
FIFTEEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MILDEST WEATHER WILL COME SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER
PENINSULA WITH SOME IFR SPRINKLED IN AS WELL ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FEEL THE IFR CEILINGS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT FOG WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE STATE BY
AROUND 15Z. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF MVFR
CEILINGS PERSISTING. WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OCCURRING AND EVEN
A TREND TOWARD VFR...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS KMKG. A NORTH-NORTHEAST
FLOW MAY KEEP THE MVFR CEILINGS IN THROUGH THE EVENING AT KLAN AND
KJXN. A TREND TOWARD VFR IS EXPECT AT ALL SITES FROM THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CAVEAT THOUGH IS THE FACT THAT A
NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND MAY TRY TO GENERATE MVFR CEILINGS OFF OF LAKE
HURON RIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...KLAN AND KJXN WOULD BE MOST
IMPACTED. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY TODAY AT 10-15 KNOTS...TURNING
EAST AND DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FROM ST. JOE TO MANISTEE INTO
TONIGHT. WE SHORTENED THE END TIME OF THE ADVISORY UP TO 06Z...AND
IT MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED EARLY AT THE MID EVENING UPDATE.
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING WINDS TO 30 KNOTS IN
SPOTS AND WAVES OF 4 TO 7 FEET. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NOT
THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK...WITH THE SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
TURNING MORE OFF SHORE WITH TIME. THE NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING TRY
TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. QUIET
CONDITIONS OUT ON THE LAKE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE REGION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS THIS WEEK. RIVER LEVELS ARE ALL WITHIN BANK AND
VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OR SO.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 211148
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
748 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

RATHER QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THE BULK OF THE TIME. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS
WEEK WARMING INTO THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VERY LITTLE TO BE CONCERNED WITH WEATHER WISE IN THE SHORT TERM...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLOUDS. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
THE CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EAST
TODAY.

NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SOME SPRINKLES TO AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM CLARE...TO IONIA TO
BATTLE CREEK. BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARDS U.S. 127. DELTA T/S WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TODAY WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING AROUND -1C
OVER LAKE HURON.

REGARDING CLOUDS WENT A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WE KEEP A NORTHEAST FLOW AND DELTA T/S OF AT LEAST 10 DEGREE C OFF
OF LAKE HURON THROUGH MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. NAM12 RH PROGS IN THE
950-900MB LAYER BEAR THIS OUT. LOOKING FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY...TRYING TO TREND PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
THE EAST MAY HANG ON TO CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND EVEN LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY BASED ON THE FLOW REGIME OFF OF LAKE HURON.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 50S ON THURSDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE THAT DAY AND
WARMER 850MB TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FAIR AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COME THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AND FAIR WX WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND FIVE TO AS MUCH AS
FIFTEEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MILDEST WEATHER WILL COME SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER
PENINSULA WITH SOME IFR SPRINKLED IN AS WELL ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FEEL THE IFR CEILINGS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT FOG WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE STATE BY
AROUND 15Z. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF MVFR
CEILINGS PERSISTING. WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OCCURRING AND EVEN
A TREND TOWARD VFR...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS KMKG. A NORTH-NORTHEAST
FLOW MAY KEEP THE MVFR CEILINGS IN THROUGH THE EVENING AT KLAN AND
KJXN. A TREND TOWARD VFR IS EXPECT AT ALL SITES FROM THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CAVEAT THOUGH IS THE FACT THAT A
NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND MAY TRY TO GENERATE MVFR CEILINGS OFF OF LAKE
HURON RIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...KLAN AND KJXN WOULD BE MOST
IMPACTED. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY TODAY AT 10-15 KNOTS...TURNING
EAST AND DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FROM ST. JOE TO MANISTEE INTO
TONIGHT. WE SHORTENED THE END TIME OF THE ADVISORY UP TO 06Z...AND
IT MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED EARLY AT THE MID EVENING UPDATE.
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING WINDS TO 30 KNOTS IN
SPOTS AND WAVES OF 4 TO 7 FEET. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NOT
THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK...WITH THE SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
TURNING MORE OFF SHORE WITH TIME. THE NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING TRY
TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. QUIET
CONDITIONS OUT ON THE LAKE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE REGION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS THIS WEEK. RIVER LEVELS ARE ALL WITHIN BANK AND
VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OR SO.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 211148
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
748 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

RATHER QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THE BULK OF THE TIME. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS
WEEK WARMING INTO THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VERY LITTLE TO BE CONCERNED WITH WEATHER WISE IN THE SHORT TERM...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLOUDS. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
THE CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EAST
TODAY.

NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SOME SPRINKLES TO AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM CLARE...TO IONIA TO
BATTLE CREEK. BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARDS U.S. 127. DELTA T/S WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TODAY WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING AROUND -1C
OVER LAKE HURON.

REGARDING CLOUDS WENT A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WE KEEP A NORTHEAST FLOW AND DELTA T/S OF AT LEAST 10 DEGREE C OFF
OF LAKE HURON THROUGH MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. NAM12 RH PROGS IN THE
950-900MB LAYER BEAR THIS OUT. LOOKING FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY...TRYING TO TREND PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
THE EAST MAY HANG ON TO CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND EVEN LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY BASED ON THE FLOW REGIME OFF OF LAKE HURON.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 50S ON THURSDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE THAT DAY AND
WARMER 850MB TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FAIR AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COME THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AND FAIR WX WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND FIVE TO AS MUCH AS
FIFTEEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MILDEST WEATHER WILL COME SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER
PENINSULA WITH SOME IFR SPRINKLED IN AS WELL ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FEEL THE IFR CEILINGS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT FOG WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE STATE BY
AROUND 15Z. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF MVFR
CEILINGS PERSISTING. WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OCCURRING AND EVEN
A TREND TOWARD VFR...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS KMKG. A NORTH-NORTHEAST
FLOW MAY KEEP THE MVFR CEILINGS IN THROUGH THE EVENING AT KLAN AND
KJXN. A TREND TOWARD VFR IS EXPECT AT ALL SITES FROM THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CAVEAT THOUGH IS THE FACT THAT A
NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND MAY TRY TO GENERATE MVFR CEILINGS OFF OF LAKE
HURON RIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...KLAN AND KJXN WOULD BE MOST
IMPACTED. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY TODAY AT 10-15 KNOTS...TURNING
EAST AND DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FROM ST. JOE TO MANISTEE INTO
TONIGHT. WE SHORTENED THE END TIME OF THE ADVISORY UP TO 06Z...AND
IT MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED EARLY AT THE MID EVENING UPDATE.
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING WINDS TO 30 KNOTS IN
SPOTS AND WAVES OF 4 TO 7 FEET. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NOT
THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK...WITH THE SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
TURNING MORE OFF SHORE WITH TIME. THE NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING TRY
TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. QUIET
CONDITIONS OUT ON THE LAKE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE REGION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS THIS WEEK. RIVER LEVELS ARE ALL WITHIN BANK AND
VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OR SO.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 211148
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
748 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

RATHER QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THE BULK OF THE TIME. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS
WEEK WARMING INTO THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VERY LITTLE TO BE CONCERNED WITH WEATHER WISE IN THE SHORT TERM...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLOUDS. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
THE CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EAST
TODAY.

NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SOME SPRINKLES TO AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM CLARE...TO IONIA TO
BATTLE CREEK. BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARDS U.S. 127. DELTA T/S WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TODAY WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING AROUND -1C
OVER LAKE HURON.

REGARDING CLOUDS WENT A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WE KEEP A NORTHEAST FLOW AND DELTA T/S OF AT LEAST 10 DEGREE C OFF
OF LAKE HURON THROUGH MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. NAM12 RH PROGS IN THE
950-900MB LAYER BEAR THIS OUT. LOOKING FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY...TRYING TO TREND PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
THE EAST MAY HANG ON TO CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND EVEN LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY BASED ON THE FLOW REGIME OFF OF LAKE HURON.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 50S ON THURSDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE THAT DAY AND
WARMER 850MB TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FAIR AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COME THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AND FAIR WX WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND FIVE TO AS MUCH AS
FIFTEEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MILDEST WEATHER WILL COME SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER
PENINSULA WITH SOME IFR SPRINKLED IN AS WELL ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FEEL THE IFR CEILINGS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT FOG WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE STATE BY
AROUND 15Z. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF MVFR
CEILINGS PERSISTING. WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OCCURRING AND EVEN
A TREND TOWARD VFR...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS KMKG. A NORTH-NORTHEAST
FLOW MAY KEEP THE MVFR CEILINGS IN THROUGH THE EVENING AT KLAN AND
KJXN. A TREND TOWARD VFR IS EXPECT AT ALL SITES FROM THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CAVEAT THOUGH IS THE FACT THAT A
NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND MAY TRY TO GENERATE MVFR CEILINGS OFF OF LAKE
HURON RIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...KLAN AND KJXN WOULD BE MOST
IMPACTED. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY TODAY AT 10-15 KNOTS...TURNING
EAST AND DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FROM ST. JOE TO MANISTEE INTO
TONIGHT. WE SHORTENED THE END TIME OF THE ADVISORY UP TO 06Z...AND
IT MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED EARLY AT THE MID EVENING UPDATE.
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING WINDS TO 30 KNOTS IN
SPOTS AND WAVES OF 4 TO 7 FEET. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NOT
THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK...WITH THE SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
TURNING MORE OFF SHORE WITH TIME. THE NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING TRY
TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. QUIET
CONDITIONS OUT ON THE LAKE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE REGION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS THIS WEEK. RIVER LEVELS ARE ALL WITHIN BANK AND
VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OR SO.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 210729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

RATHER QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THE BULK OF THE TIME. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS
WEEK WARMING INTO THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VERY LITTLE TO BE CONCERNED WITH WEATHER WISE IN THE SHORT TERM...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLOUDS. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
THE CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EAST
TODAY.

NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SOME SPRINKLES TO AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM CLARE...TO IONIA TO
BATTLE CREEK. BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARDS U.S. 127. DELTA T/S WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TODAY WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING AROUND -1C
OVER LAKE HURON.

REGARDING CLOUDS WENT A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WE KEEP A NORTHEAST FLOW AND DELTA T/S OF AT LEAST 10 DEGREE C OFF
OF LAKE HURON THROUGH MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. NAM12 RH PROGS IN THE
950-900MB LAYER BEAR THIS OUT. LOOKING FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY...TRYING TO TREND PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
THE EAST MAY HANG ON TO CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND EVEN LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY BASED ON THE FLOW REGIME OFF OF LAKE HURON.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 50S ON THURSDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE THAT DAY AND
WARMER 850MB TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FAIR AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COME THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AND FAIR WX WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND FIVE TO AS MUCH AS
FIFTEEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MILDEST WEATHER WILL COME SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO MAINLY
MVFR OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOWERING CIGS AS LOWER CLOUDS ADVECT IN AND
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT KMKG. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL STAY
OUT OF THE NNW MAINLY AOB 10 KTS.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM MAINLY MVFR TUESDAY MORNING
TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TO AROUND
10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
TUESDAY EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR AND WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDE TO AOB 10
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FROM ST. JOE TO MANISTEE INTO
TONIGHT. WE SHORTENED THE END TIME OF THE ADVISORY UP TO 06Z...AND
IT MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED EARLY AT THE MID EVENING UPDATE.
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING WINDS TO 30 KNOTS IN
SPOTS AND WAVES OF 4 TO 7 FEET. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NOT
THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK...WITH THE SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
TURNING MORE OFF SHORE WITH TIME. THE NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING TRY
TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. QUIET
CONDITIONS OUT ON THE LAKE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS THIS WEEK. RIVER LEVELS ARE ALL WITHIN BANK AND
VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OR SO.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 210353
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1155 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IT/S GRIP OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WILL BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY TUESDAY. WE LOOKING AT SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY. THE MAIN STORY IS THE UPPER LOW
MOVING OVER LAKE HURON. THIS LOW WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY TO MOVE OUT
OF THE PICTURE. TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WEST THROUGH MANITOBA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF US-127 AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY.

UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WE/LL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDINESS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS ENCOURAGE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALSO LOOK FAIR AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH HOW WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL GO.  I SUSPECT WE WILL SEE SOME 70S AT SOME POINT...MOST LIKELY
MONDAY.

TRENDS IN THE MODELS SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.  WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SHOWN TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AS A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND TRACKS INTO
MICHIGAN ON MONDAY.  925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE TEENS...WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY.  ASSUMING WE MIX TO THAT LEVEL...WE WOULD
LIKELY REACH 70.  FOR NOW I BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERABLY...TAKING THEM INTO THE 60S.

I DID ADD THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE THUNDER RISK.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.  A WEAKENING MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  TRENDS SHOWS THIS FEATURE ARRIVING SOONER...SO IF IT DID
PRECIPITATE...THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY.  THE MOISTURE IN THE
DGZ IS DECREASING AS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH.  WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR
NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO MAINLY
MVFR OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOWERING CIGS AS LOWER CLOUDS ADVECT IN AND
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT KMKG. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL STAY
OUT OF THE NNW MAINLY AOB 10 KTS.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM MAINLY MVFR TUESDAY MORNING
TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TO AROUND
10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
TUESDAY EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR AND WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDE TO AOB 10
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93








000
FXUS63 KGRR 210353
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1155 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IT/S GRIP OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WILL BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY TUESDAY. WE LOOKING AT SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY. THE MAIN STORY IS THE UPPER LOW
MOVING OVER LAKE HURON. THIS LOW WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY TO MOVE OUT
OF THE PICTURE. TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WEST THROUGH MANITOBA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF US-127 AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY.

UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WE/LL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDINESS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS ENCOURAGE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALSO LOOK FAIR AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH HOW WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL GO.  I SUSPECT WE WILL SEE SOME 70S AT SOME POINT...MOST LIKELY
MONDAY.

TRENDS IN THE MODELS SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.  WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SHOWN TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AS A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND TRACKS INTO
MICHIGAN ON MONDAY.  925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE TEENS...WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY.  ASSUMING WE MIX TO THAT LEVEL...WE WOULD
LIKELY REACH 70.  FOR NOW I BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERABLY...TAKING THEM INTO THE 60S.

I DID ADD THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE THUNDER RISK.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.  A WEAKENING MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  TRENDS SHOWS THIS FEATURE ARRIVING SOONER...SO IF IT DID
PRECIPITATE...THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY.  THE MOISTURE IN THE
DGZ IS DECREASING AS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH.  WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR
NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO MAINLY
MVFR OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOWERING CIGS AS LOWER CLOUDS ADVECT IN AND
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT KMKG. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL STAY
OUT OF THE NNW MAINLY AOB 10 KTS.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM MAINLY MVFR TUESDAY MORNING
TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TO AROUND
10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
TUESDAY EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR AND WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDE TO AOB 10
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93








000
FXUS63 KGRR 202357
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
757 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IT/S GRIP OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WILL BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY TUESDAY. WE LOOKING AT SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY. THE MAIN STORY IS THE UPPER LOW
MOVING OVER LAKE HURON. THIS LOW WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY TO MOVE OUT
OF THE PICTURE. TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WEST THROUGH MANITOBA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF US-127 AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY.

UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WE/LL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDINESS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS ENCOURAGE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALSO LOOK FAIR AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH HOW WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL GO.  I SUSPECT WE WILL SEE SOME 70S AT SOME POINT...MOST LIKELY
MONDAY.

TRENDS IN THE MODELS SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.  WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SHOWN TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AS A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND TRACKS INTO
MICHIGAN ON MONDAY.  925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE TEENS...WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY.  ASSUMING WE MIX TO THAT LEVEL...WE WOULD
LIKELY REACH 70.  FOR NOW I BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERABLY...TAKING THEM INTO THE 60S.

I DID ADD THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE THUNDER RISK.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.  A WEAKENING MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  TRENDS SHOWS THIS FEATURE ARRIVING SOONER...SO IF IT DID
PRECIPITATE...THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY.  THE MOISTURE IN THE
DGZ IS DECREASING AS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH.  WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR
NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THERE ARE TWO MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS PACKAGE...LOWERING CEILINGS
AND WIND GUSTS. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS PRETTY THICK IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL MAKE A SLOW SOUTHWARD
TREND AS THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ROTATE EAST OF THE AREA. THE
TOUGHEST PART WAS THE CALL ON WHETHER TO BRIEFLY GO IFR IN THE
LATE NIGHT AND PRE DAWN HOURS. THAT CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER
LOW...SO I STUCK WITH LOWER MVFR VALUES FOR CONSISTENCY. SOME
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TONIGHT IN THIS
PATTERN. WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING BEFORE RELAXING A BIT LATER TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH GUSTS FALL
OUT OF THE PICTURE...BREEZING CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY TOMORROW
WHICH HELPS TO BRING IN SOME DRY AIR AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
GETTING BACK TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...JAM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93







000
FXUS63 KGRR 202357
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
757 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IT/S GRIP OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WILL BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY TUESDAY. WE LOOKING AT SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY. THE MAIN STORY IS THE UPPER LOW
MOVING OVER LAKE HURON. THIS LOW WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY TO MOVE OUT
OF THE PICTURE. TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WEST THROUGH MANITOBA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF US-127 AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY.

UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WE/LL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDINESS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS ENCOURAGE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALSO LOOK FAIR AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH HOW WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL GO.  I SUSPECT WE WILL SEE SOME 70S AT SOME POINT...MOST LIKELY
MONDAY.

TRENDS IN THE MODELS SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.  WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SHOWN TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AS A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND TRACKS INTO
MICHIGAN ON MONDAY.  925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE TEENS...WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY.  ASSUMING WE MIX TO THAT LEVEL...WE WOULD
LIKELY REACH 70.  FOR NOW I BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERABLY...TAKING THEM INTO THE 60S.

I DID ADD THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE THUNDER RISK.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.  A WEAKENING MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  TRENDS SHOWS THIS FEATURE ARRIVING SOONER...SO IF IT DID
PRECIPITATE...THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY.  THE MOISTURE IN THE
DGZ IS DECREASING AS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH.  WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR
NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THERE ARE TWO MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS PACKAGE...LOWERING CEILINGS
AND WIND GUSTS. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS PRETTY THICK IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL MAKE A SLOW SOUTHWARD
TREND AS THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ROTATE EAST OF THE AREA. THE
TOUGHEST PART WAS THE CALL ON WHETHER TO BRIEFLY GO IFR IN THE
LATE NIGHT AND PRE DAWN HOURS. THAT CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER
LOW...SO I STUCK WITH LOWER MVFR VALUES FOR CONSISTENCY. SOME
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TONIGHT IN THIS
PATTERN. WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING BEFORE RELAXING A BIT LATER TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH GUSTS FALL
OUT OF THE PICTURE...BREEZING CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY TOMORROW
WHICH HELPS TO BRING IN SOME DRY AIR AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
GETTING BACK TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...JAM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93








000
FXUS63 KGRR 201914
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IT/S GRIP OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WILL BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY TUESDAY. WE LOOKING AT SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY. THE MAIN STORY IS THE UPPER LOW
MOVING OVER LAKE HURON. THIS LOW WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY TO MOVE OUT
OF THE PICTURE. TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WEST THROUGH MANITOBA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF US-127 AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY.

UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WE/LL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDINESS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS ENCOURAGE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALSO LOOK FAIR AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH HOW WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL GO.  I SUSPECT WE WILL SEE SOME 70S AT SOME POINT...MOST LIKELY
MONDAY.

TRENDS IN THE MODELS SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.  WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SHOWN TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AS A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND TRACKS INTO
MICHIGAN ON MONDAY.  925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE TEENS...WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY.  ASSUMING WE MIX TO THAT LEVEL...WE WOULD
LIKELY REACH 70.  FOR NOW I BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERABLY...TAKING THEM INTO THE 60S.

I DID ADD THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE THUNDER RISK.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.  A WEAKENING MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  TRENDS SHOWS THIS FEATURE ARRIVING SOONER...SO IF IT DID
PRECIPITATE...THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY.  THE MOISTURE IN THE
DGZ IS DECREASING AS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH.  WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR
NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI WAS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. IN ADDITION LOWER CLOUD BASES WERE NOTED WITH MANY
SITES UNDER 2K FEET. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF KJXN BY
20Z. A PATCH OF CLEARING WAS SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND GENERALLY
VFR CLOUDS WERE NOTED TOWARD KMKG AND KFFX. THIS SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE GO INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL. MVFR
CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A LOW RISK FOR IFR. NOT MUCH
CHANGES INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CLOUDS TO PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93











000
FXUS63 KGRR 201914
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IT/S GRIP OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WILL BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY TUESDAY. WE LOOKING AT SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY. THE MAIN STORY IS THE UPPER LOW
MOVING OVER LAKE HURON. THIS LOW WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY TO MOVE OUT
OF THE PICTURE. TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WEST THROUGH MANITOBA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF US-127 AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY.

UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WE/LL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDINESS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS ENCOURAGE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALSO LOOK FAIR AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH HOW WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL GO.  I SUSPECT WE WILL SEE SOME 70S AT SOME POINT...MOST LIKELY
MONDAY.

TRENDS IN THE MODELS SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.  WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SHOWN TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AS A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND TRACKS INTO
MICHIGAN ON MONDAY.  925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE TEENS...WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY.  ASSUMING WE MIX TO THAT LEVEL...WE WOULD
LIKELY REACH 70.  FOR NOW I BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERABLY...TAKING THEM INTO THE 60S.

I DID ADD THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE THUNDER RISK.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.  A WEAKENING MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  TRENDS SHOWS THIS FEATURE ARRIVING SOONER...SO IF IT DID
PRECIPITATE...THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY.  THE MOISTURE IN THE
DGZ IS DECREASING AS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH.  WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR
NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI WAS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. IN ADDITION LOWER CLOUD BASES WERE NOTED WITH MANY
SITES UNDER 2K FEET. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF KJXN BY
20Z. A PATCH OF CLEARING WAS SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND GENERALLY
VFR CLOUDS WERE NOTED TOWARD KMKG AND KFFX. THIS SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE GO INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL. MVFR
CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A LOW RISK FOR IFR. NOT MUCH
CHANGES INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CLOUDS TO PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93










000
FXUS63 KGRR 201741
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
141 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MODIFIED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. ALSO ADDED SOME DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATOCU
PUSHES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. RH PROFILES SHOW SOME LIFT IN
THE CLOUD LAYER AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

I ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST NEAR AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE RAP13 SHOWS VERTICAL TOTAL ARE AROUND 30C NEAR THE CONVECTION
CROSSING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 735 AM THIS MORNING. OUR TOTAL
LIGHTNING TRACKER IS SHOWING A HIGH FREQUENCY OF IN- CLOUD
LIGHTING WITH THESE STORMS (6-10 PER MINUTES). RAP SOUNDING IN
FRONT OF THE CONVECTION (UPPER WAVE ) SHOW 300 TO 400 J/KG OF
CAPE. THE LATEST SPC SREF 3 HOUR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY SHOWS THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS GOES ALONG WITH THIS IDEA TOO. SO ALL
OF THIS TELLS ME THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL KEPT MOVING EAST ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA SO THAT
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY
IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. ONCE THAT IS DONE WE DO GET INTO ANOTHER COLD POOL
OF AIR THAT TYPICALLY LEADS TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWER WHICH WOULD
OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WHAT BRINGS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS
UNDER THE 500 MB COLD POOL. SO THAT RESULTS IN VERTICAL TOTALS
NEAR 28C. THE 850 MB LI FALLS TO NEAR -1C OVER THE I-69 AREA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING. WE ALSO HAVE
THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET COMING INTO PLAY AT THIS TIME TO
HELP THE CAUSE. HOWEVER I DID NOT GO FOR THIS BECAUSE WHEN I
ACTUALLY LOOKED AT MODEL SOUNDINGS (RAP AND NAM) THERE IS AN
INVERSION NEAR 850 MB THAT WILL HARD TO OVERCOME. EVEN IF THAT CAN
BE OVERCOME THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW. SO MY SPIN WAS TO GO WITH
CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND CALL THAT GOOD.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ONCE WE GET INTO THE 850
COLD POOL OF AIR TONIGHT. FOR A SHORT TIME... 6 PM TILL
MIDNIGHT... WE HAVE A MOIST LAYER TO NEAR 10000 FT WITH NORTH
WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION. THAT SHOULD RESULT OF IN LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE (NORTH WINDS) AND MAYBE TOUCHING THE POINTS
AND EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES. THAT DOES NOT
LAST LONG... WINDS BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH
THAT SHOWERS OFF SHORE. BY 8 AM TUESDAY THE UPPER JET PASSES OVER
AHEAD AN INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH TO NEAR 4000 FT AGL. SO WHAT EVER
THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDS.

WITH THE UPPER JET TO OUR EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS ANOTHER
BELOW FREEZING NIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR AND DRY WX. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS
WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO LACKING IN MOISTURE AND
SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI WAS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. IN ADDITION LOWER CLOUD BASES WERE NOTED WITH MANY
SITES UNDER 2K FEET. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF KJXN BY
20Z. A PATCH OF CLEARING WAS SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND GENERALLY
VFR CLOUDS WERE NOTED TOWARD KMKG AND KFFX. THIS SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE GO INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL. MVFR
CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A LOW RISK FOR IFR. NOT MUCH
CHANGES INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CLOUDS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WITH THE CORE OF WINDS TO 40 KNOTS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE... WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A TIME TILL THE COLD AIR POOL
AT MID LEVEL MOVES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN I WOULD EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO I WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS AND CALL THAT GOOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND (ECMWF AND GFS ) SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY
FALL OVER TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 201448
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1048 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MODIFIED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. ALSO ADDED SOME DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATOCU
PUSHES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. RH PROFILES SHOW SOME LIFT IN
THE CLOUD LAYER AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

I ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST NEAR AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE RAP13 SHOWS VERTICAL TOTAL ARE AROUND 30C NEAR THE CONVECTION
CROSSING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 735 AM THIS MORNING. OUR TOTAL
LIGHTNING TRACKER IS SHOWING A HIGH FREQUENCY OF IN- CLOUD
LIGHTING WITH THESE STORMS (6-10 PER MINUTES). RAP SOUNDING IN
FRONT OF THE CONVECTION (UPPER WAVE ) SHOW 300 TO 400 J/KG OF
CAPE. THE LATEST SPC SREF 3 HOUR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY SHOWS THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS GOES ALONG WITH THIS IDEA TOO. SO ALL
OF THIS TELLS ME THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL KEPT MOVING EAST ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA SO THAT
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY
IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. ONCE THAT IS DONE WE DO GET INTO ANOTHER COLD POOL
OF AIR THAT TYPICALLY LEADS TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWER WHICH WOULD
OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WHAT BRINGS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS
UNDER THE 500 MB COLD POOL. SO THAT RESULTS IN VERTICAL TOTALS
NEAR 28C. THE 850 MB LI FALLS TO NEAR -1C OVER THE I-69 AREA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING. WE ALSO HAVE
THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET COMING INTO PLAY AT THIS TIME TO
HELP THE CAUSE. HOWEVER I DID NOT GO FOR THIS BECAUSE WHEN I
ACTUALLY LOOKED AT MODEL SOUNDINGS (RAP AND NAM) THERE IS AN
INVERSION NEAR 850 MB THAT WILL HARD TO OVERCOME. EVEN IF THAT CAN
BE OVERCOME THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW. SO MY SPIN WAS TO GO WITH
CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND CALL THAT GOOD.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ONCE WE GET INTO THE 850
COLD POOL OF AIR TONIGHT. FOR A SHORT TIME... 6 PM TILL
MIDNIGHT... WE HAVE A MOIST LAYER TO NEAR 10000 FT WITH NORTH
WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION. THAT SHOULD RESULT OF IN LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE (NORTH WINDS) AND MAYBE TOUCHING THE POINTS
AND EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES. THAT DOES NOT
LAST LONG... WINDS BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH
THAT SHOWERS OFF SHORE. BY 8 AM TUESDAY THE UPPER JET PASSES OVER
AHEAD AN INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH TO NEAR 4000 FT AGL. SO WHAT EVER
THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDS.

WITH THE UPPER JET TO OUR EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS ANOTHER
BELOW FREEZING NIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR AND DRY WX. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS
WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO LACKING IN MOISTURE AND
SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENTLY THE THERMAL RIDGE AT LOW LEVELS IS CROSSING SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT IS HELPING TO KEEP THE CEILINGS WELL ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER ONCE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON I WOULD EXPECT
EXTENSIVE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD OVER ALL OF OUR TAF SITES. THOSE
LOWER CEILING WILL LAST INTO THE DAY TIME HOURS OF TUESDAY.

MEANWHILE...I PUT VCTS IN THE I-94 TAFS FOR THE CONVECTION THAT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ONLY TAF SITE I
ACTUALLY PUT SHOWERS IN THE TAF MKG. THAT WAS FOR EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR NORTH WIND LAKE EFFECT BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z. AFTER THAT
THE WINDS TURN MORE NORTH NORTHEAST AND THAT WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS
OFF SHORE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WITH THE CORE OF WINDS TO 40 KNOTS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE... WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A TIME TILL THE COLD AIR POOL
AT MID LEVEL MOVES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN I WOULD EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO I WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS AND CALL THAT GOOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND (ECMWF AND GFS ) SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY
FALL OVER TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 201153
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
753 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

I ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST NEAR AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE RAP13 SHOWS VERTICAL TOTAL ARE AROUND 30C NEAR THE CONVECTION
CROSSING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 735 AM THIS MORNING. OUR TOTAL
LIGHTNING TRACKER IS SHOWING A HIGH FREQUENCY OF IN- CLOUD
LIGHTING WITH THESE STORMS (6-10 PER MINUTES). RAP SOUNDING IN
FRONT OF THE CONVECTION (UPPER WAVE ) SHOW 300 TO 400 J/KG OF
CAPE. THE LATEST SPC SREF 3 HOUR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY SHOWS THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS GOES ALONG WITH THIS IDEA TOO. SO ALL
OF THIS TELLS ME THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL KEPT MOVING EAST ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA SO THAT
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY
IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. ONCE THAT IS DONE WE DO GET INTO ANOTHER COLD POOL
OF AIR THAT TYPICALLY LEADS TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWER WHICH WOULD
OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WHAT BRINGS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS
UNDER THE 500 MB COLD POOL. SO THAT RESULTS IN VERTICAL TOTALS
NEAR 28C. THE 850 MB LI FALLS TO NEAR -1C OVER THE I-69 AREA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING. WE ALSO HAVE
THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET COMING INTO PLAY AT THIS TIME TO
HELP THE CAUSE. HOWEVER I DID NOT GO FOR THIS BECAUSE WHEN I
ACTUALLY LOOKED AT MODEL SOUNDINGS (RAP AND NAM) THERE IS AN
INVERSION NEAR 850 MB THAT WILL HARD TO OVERCOME. EVEN IF THAT CAN
BE OVERCOME THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW. SO MY SPIN WAS TO GO WITH
CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND CALL THAT GOOD.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ONCE WE GET INTO THE 850
COLD POOL OF AIR TONIGHT. FOR A SHORT TIME... 6 PM TILL
MIDNIGHT... WE HAVE A MOIST LAYER TO NEAR 10000 FT WITH NORTH
WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION. THAT SHOULD RESULT OF IN LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE (NORTH WINDS) AND MAYBE TOUCHING THE POINTS
AND EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES. THAT DOES NOT
LAST LONG... WINDS BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH
THAT SHOWERS OFF SHORE. BY 8 AM TUESDAY THE UPPER JET PASSES OVER
AHEAD AN INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH TO NEAR 4000 FT AGL. SO WHAT EVER
THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDS.

WITH THE UPPER JET TO OUR EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS ANOTHER
BELOW FREEZING NIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR AND DRY WX. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS
WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO LACKING IN MOISTURE AND
SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENTLY THE THERMAL RIDGE AT LOW LEVELS IS CROSSING SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT IS HELPING TO KEEP THE CEILINGS WELL ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER ONCE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON I WOULD EXPECT
EXTENSIVE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD OVER ALL OF OUR TAF SITES. THOSE
LOWER CEILING WILL LAST INTO THE DAY TIME HOURS OF TUESDAY.

MEANWHILE...I PUT VCTS IN THE I-94 TAFS FOR THE CONVECTION THAT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ONLY TAF SITE I
ACTUALLY PUT SHOWERS IN THE TAF MKG. THAT WAS FOR EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR NORTH WIND LAKE EFFECT BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z. AFTER THAT
THE WINDS TURN MORE NORTH NORTHEAST AND THAT WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS
OFF SHORE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WITH THE CORE OF WINDS TO 40 KNOTS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE... WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A TIME TILL THE COLD AIR POOL
AT MID LEVEL MOVES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN I WOULD EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO I WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS AND CALL THAT GOOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND (ECMWF AND GFS ) SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY
FALL OVER TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 201153
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
753 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

I ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST NEAR AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE RAP13 SHOWS VERTICAL TOTAL ARE AROUND 30C NEAR THE CONVECTION
CROSSING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 735 AM THIS MORNING. OUR TOTAL
LIGHTNING TRACKER IS SHOWING A HIGH FREQUENCY OF IN- CLOUD
LIGHTING WITH THESE STORMS (6-10 PER MINUTES). RAP SOUNDING IN
FRONT OF THE CONVECTION (UPPER WAVE ) SHOW 300 TO 400 J/KG OF
CAPE. THE LATEST SPC SREF 3 HOUR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY SHOWS THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS GOES ALONG WITH THIS IDEA TOO. SO ALL
OF THIS TELLS ME THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL KEPT MOVING EAST ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA SO THAT
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY
IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. ONCE THAT IS DONE WE DO GET INTO ANOTHER COLD POOL
OF AIR THAT TYPICALLY LEADS TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWER WHICH WOULD
OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WHAT BRINGS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS
UNDER THE 500 MB COLD POOL. SO THAT RESULTS IN VERTICAL TOTALS
NEAR 28C. THE 850 MB LI FALLS TO NEAR -1C OVER THE I-69 AREA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING. WE ALSO HAVE
THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET COMING INTO PLAY AT THIS TIME TO
HELP THE CAUSE. HOWEVER I DID NOT GO FOR THIS BECAUSE WHEN I
ACTUALLY LOOKED AT MODEL SOUNDINGS (RAP AND NAM) THERE IS AN
INVERSION NEAR 850 MB THAT WILL HARD TO OVERCOME. EVEN IF THAT CAN
BE OVERCOME THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW. SO MY SPIN WAS TO GO WITH
CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND CALL THAT GOOD.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ONCE WE GET INTO THE 850
COLD POOL OF AIR TONIGHT. FOR A SHORT TIME... 6 PM TILL
MIDNIGHT... WE HAVE A MOIST LAYER TO NEAR 10000 FT WITH NORTH
WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION. THAT SHOULD RESULT OF IN LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE (NORTH WINDS) AND MAYBE TOUCHING THE POINTS
AND EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES. THAT DOES NOT
LAST LONG... WINDS BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH
THAT SHOWERS OFF SHORE. BY 8 AM TUESDAY THE UPPER JET PASSES OVER
AHEAD AN INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH TO NEAR 4000 FT AGL. SO WHAT EVER
THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDS.

WITH THE UPPER JET TO OUR EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS ANOTHER
BELOW FREEZING NIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR AND DRY WX. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS
WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO LACKING IN MOISTURE AND
SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENTLY THE THERMAL RIDGE AT LOW LEVELS IS CROSSING SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT IS HELPING TO KEEP THE CEILINGS WELL ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER ONCE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON I WOULD EXPECT
EXTENSIVE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD OVER ALL OF OUR TAF SITES. THOSE
LOWER CEILING WILL LAST INTO THE DAY TIME HOURS OF TUESDAY.

MEANWHILE...I PUT VCTS IN THE I-94 TAFS FOR THE CONVECTION THAT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ONLY TAF SITE I
ACTUALLY PUT SHOWERS IN THE TAF MKG. THAT WAS FOR EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR NORTH WIND LAKE EFFECT BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z. AFTER THAT
THE WINDS TURN MORE NORTH NORTHEAST AND THAT WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS
OFF SHORE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WITH THE CORE OF WINDS TO 40 KNOTS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE... WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A TIME TILL THE COLD AIR POOL
AT MID LEVEL MOVES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN I WOULD EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO I WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS AND CALL THAT GOOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND (ECMWF AND GFS ) SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY
FALL OVER TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 200727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA SO THAT
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY
IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. ONCE THAT IS DONE WE DO GET INTO ANOTHER COLD POOL
OF AIR THAT TYPICALLY LEADS TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWER WHICH WOULD
OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WHAT BRINGS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS
UNDER THE 500 MB COLD POOL. SO THAT RESULTS IN VERTICAL TOTALS
NEAR 28C. THE 850 MB LI FALLS TO NEAR -1C OVER THE I-69 AREA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING. WE ALSO HAVE
THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET COMING INTO PLAY AT THIS TIME TO
HELP THE CAUSE. HOWEVER I DID NOT GO FOR THIS BECAUSE WHEN I
ACTUALLY LOOKED AT MODEL SOUNDINGS (RAP AND NAM) THERE IS AN
INVERSION NEAR 850 MB THAT WILL HARD TO OVERCOME. EVEN IF THAT CAN
BE OVERCOME THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW. SO MY SPIN WAS TO GO WITH
CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND CALL THAT GOOD.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ONCE WE GET INTO THE 850
COLD POOL OF AIR TONIGHT. FOR A SHORT TIME... 6 PM TILL
MIDNIGHT... WE HAVE A MOIST LAYER TO NEAR 10000 FT WITH NORTH
WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION. THAT SHOULD RESULT OF IN LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE (NORTH WINDS) AND MAYBE TOUCHING THE POINTS
AND EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES. THAT DOES NOT
LAST LONG... WINDS BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH
THAT SHOWERS OFF SHORE. BY 8 AM TUESDAY THE UPPER JET PASSES OVER
AHEAD AN INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH TO NEAR 4000 FT AGL. SO WHAT EVER
THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDS.

WITH THE UPPER JET TO OUR EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS ANOTHER
BELOW FREEZING NIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR AND DRY WX. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS
WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO LACKING IN MOISTURE AND
SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
MAY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AROUND TO AFTER DAYBREAK AS SHOWERS
BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN LIKELY FOR MOST OF MONDAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LK MI SHORELINE INCLUDING
KMKG BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WITH THE CORE OF WINDS TO 40 KNOTS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE... WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A TIME TILL THE COLD AIR POOL
AT MID LEVEL MOVES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN I WOULD EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO I WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS AND CALL THAT GOOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND (ECMWF AND GFS ) SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY
FALL OVER TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 200727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA SO THAT
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY
IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. ONCE THAT IS DONE WE DO GET INTO ANOTHER COLD POOL
OF AIR THAT TYPICALLY LEADS TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWER WHICH WOULD
OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WHAT BRINGS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS
UNDER THE 500 MB COLD POOL. SO THAT RESULTS IN VERTICAL TOTALS
NEAR 28C. THE 850 MB LI FALLS TO NEAR -1C OVER THE I-69 AREA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING. WE ALSO HAVE
THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET COMING INTO PLAY AT THIS TIME TO
HELP THE CAUSE. HOWEVER I DID NOT GO FOR THIS BECAUSE WHEN I
ACTUALLY LOOKED AT MODEL SOUNDINGS (RAP AND NAM) THERE IS AN
INVERSION NEAR 850 MB THAT WILL HARD TO OVERCOME. EVEN IF THAT CAN
BE OVERCOME THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW. SO MY SPIN WAS TO GO WITH
CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND CALL THAT GOOD.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ONCE WE GET INTO THE 850
COLD POOL OF AIR TONIGHT. FOR A SHORT TIME... 6 PM TILL
MIDNIGHT... WE HAVE A MOIST LAYER TO NEAR 10000 FT WITH NORTH
WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION. THAT SHOULD RESULT OF IN LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE (NORTH WINDS) AND MAYBE TOUCHING THE POINTS
AND EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES. THAT DOES NOT
LAST LONG... WINDS BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH
THAT SHOWERS OFF SHORE. BY 8 AM TUESDAY THE UPPER JET PASSES OVER
AHEAD AN INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH TO NEAR 4000 FT AGL. SO WHAT EVER
THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDS.

WITH THE UPPER JET TO OUR EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS ANOTHER
BELOW FREEZING NIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR AND DRY WX. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS
WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO LACKING IN MOISTURE AND
SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
MAY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AROUND TO AFTER DAYBREAK AS SHOWERS
BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN LIKELY FOR MOST OF MONDAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LK MI SHORELINE INCLUDING
KMKG BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WITH THE CORE OF WINDS TO 40 KNOTS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE... WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A TIME TILL THE COLD AIR POOL
AT MID LEVEL MOVES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN I WOULD EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO I WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS AND CALL THAT GOOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND (ECMWF AND GFS ) SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY
FALL OVER TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








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