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000
FXUS63 KGRR 270359
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1159 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO MINNESOTA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA PINWHEELING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LARGE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL SLING CLOUDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DIURNAL
CUMULUS FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A COLD POCKET
ALOFT... PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 131.

ON TUESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING... SLIGHT WARMING
ALOFT... AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
CLOUDINESS THAN ON MONDAY.

FROST POTENTIAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH TONIGHT WITH SFC WINDS
HOLDING UP AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND... BUT WILL MENTION
SOME PATCHY FROST. FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE 70S BY THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
MOST PART...THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER THE WEEKEND MAY BE
WET.

A DIGGING SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LARGELY MISS
SW LWR MI WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. DRY WX
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL PULL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION
OF THOSE TWO WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY SUNDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS SUNDAY AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME CAPE WITH LI/S AROUND -2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MI AS
OF 04Z AND THIS SOUTHWARD TREND CONTINUES TOWARD 10Z. STILL SOME
INDICATIONS THAT CIGS AROUND 1500 FT OR A BIT LOWER ARE POSSIBLE
FOR ESPECIALLY GRR AND LAN BUT POSSIBLY THE OTHER TERMINALS AS
WELL AROUND SUNRISE. NO IFR IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WILL LAST LONGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LOWER MI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SOME SCATTERING IS
EXPECTED WEST TOWARD GRR...MKG...AND AZO ESPECIALLY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF WHITEHALL THROUGH
MID EVENING WITH NNW WINDS 15-25 KTS... BUT WILL LET THE ADVISORY
RIDE FOR NOW. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST... NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 270359
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1159 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO MINNESOTA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA PINWHEELING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LARGE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL SLING CLOUDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DIURNAL
CUMULUS FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A COLD POCKET
ALOFT... PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 131.

ON TUESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING... SLIGHT WARMING
ALOFT... AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
CLOUDINESS THAN ON MONDAY.

FROST POTENTIAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH TONIGHT WITH SFC WINDS
HOLDING UP AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND... BUT WILL MENTION
SOME PATCHY FROST. FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE 70S BY THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
MOST PART...THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER THE WEEKEND MAY BE
WET.

A DIGGING SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LARGELY MISS
SW LWR MI WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. DRY WX
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL PULL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION
OF THOSE TWO WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY SUNDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS SUNDAY AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME CAPE WITH LI/S AROUND -2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MI AS
OF 04Z AND THIS SOUTHWARD TREND CONTINUES TOWARD 10Z. STILL SOME
INDICATIONS THAT CIGS AROUND 1500 FT OR A BIT LOWER ARE POSSIBLE
FOR ESPECIALLY GRR AND LAN BUT POSSIBLY THE OTHER TERMINALS AS
WELL AROUND SUNRISE. NO IFR IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WILL LAST LONGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LOWER MI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SOME SCATTERING IS
EXPECTED WEST TOWARD GRR...MKG...AND AZO ESPECIALLY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF WHITEHALL THROUGH
MID EVENING WITH NNW WINDS 15-25 KTS... BUT WILL LET THE ADVISORY
RIDE FOR NOW. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST... NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 270359
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1159 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO MINNESOTA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA PINWHEELING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LARGE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL SLING CLOUDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DIURNAL
CUMULUS FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A COLD POCKET
ALOFT... PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 131.

ON TUESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING... SLIGHT WARMING
ALOFT... AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
CLOUDINESS THAN ON MONDAY.

FROST POTENTIAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH TONIGHT WITH SFC WINDS
HOLDING UP AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND... BUT WILL MENTION
SOME PATCHY FROST. FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE 70S BY THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
MOST PART...THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER THE WEEKEND MAY BE
WET.

A DIGGING SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LARGELY MISS
SW LWR MI WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. DRY WX
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL PULL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION
OF THOSE TWO WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY SUNDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS SUNDAY AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME CAPE WITH LI/S AROUND -2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MI AS
OF 04Z AND THIS SOUTHWARD TREND CONTINUES TOWARD 10Z. STILL SOME
INDICATIONS THAT CIGS AROUND 1500 FT OR A BIT LOWER ARE POSSIBLE
FOR ESPECIALLY GRR AND LAN BUT POSSIBLY THE OTHER TERMINALS AS
WELL AROUND SUNRISE. NO IFR IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WILL LAST LONGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LOWER MI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SOME SCATTERING IS
EXPECTED WEST TOWARD GRR...MKG...AND AZO ESPECIALLY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF WHITEHALL THROUGH
MID EVENING WITH NNW WINDS 15-25 KTS... BUT WILL LET THE ADVISORY
RIDE FOR NOW. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST... NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 270359
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1159 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO MINNESOTA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA PINWHEELING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LARGE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL SLING CLOUDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DIURNAL
CUMULUS FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A COLD POCKET
ALOFT... PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 131.

ON TUESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING... SLIGHT WARMING
ALOFT... AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
CLOUDINESS THAN ON MONDAY.

FROST POTENTIAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH TONIGHT WITH SFC WINDS
HOLDING UP AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND... BUT WILL MENTION
SOME PATCHY FROST. FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE 70S BY THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
MOST PART...THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER THE WEEKEND MAY BE
WET.

A DIGGING SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LARGELY MISS
SW LWR MI WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. DRY WX
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL PULL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION
OF THOSE TWO WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY SUNDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS SUNDAY AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME CAPE WITH LI/S AROUND -2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MI AS
OF 04Z AND THIS SOUTHWARD TREND CONTINUES TOWARD 10Z. STILL SOME
INDICATIONS THAT CIGS AROUND 1500 FT OR A BIT LOWER ARE POSSIBLE
FOR ESPECIALLY GRR AND LAN BUT POSSIBLY THE OTHER TERMINALS AS
WELL AROUND SUNRISE. NO IFR IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WILL LAST LONGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LOWER MI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SOME SCATTERING IS
EXPECTED WEST TOWARD GRR...MKG...AND AZO ESPECIALLY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF WHITEHALL THROUGH
MID EVENING WITH NNW WINDS 15-25 KTS... BUT WILL LET THE ADVISORY
RIDE FOR NOW. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST... NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 262340
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
740 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO MINNESOTA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA PINWHEELING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LARGE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL SLING CLOUDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DIURNAL
CUMULUS FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A COLD POCKET
ALOFT... PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 131.

ON TUESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING... SLIGHT WARMING
ALOFT... AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
CLOUDINESS THAN ON MONDAY.

FROST POTENTIAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH TONIGHT WITH SFC WINDS
HOLDING UP AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND... BUT WILL MENTION
SOME PATCHY FROST. FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE 70S BY THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
MOST PART...THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER THE WEEKEND MAY BE
WET.

A DIGGING SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LARGELY MISS
SW LWR MI WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. DRY WX
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL PULL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION
OF THOSE TWO WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY SUNDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS SUNDAY AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME CAPE WITH LI/S AROUND -2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

MAIN ITEM TO WATCH OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF IFR
CIGS NORTH OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND HURON. RAP...NAM...AND GFS MODELS
ALL INDICATING THIS CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN LOWER MI OVERNIGHT BEFORE THINNING OUT A BIT AS IT ENTERS
SOUTHERN LOWER MI. CURRENT CIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO OF 500 FT TO
1500 FT SHOULD LIFT A BIT AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS SOUTH
INTO MICHIGAN...BUT STILL THINKING GRR AND LANSING MAY SEE NEAR-
IFR CIGS OF 1200 TO 1500 FT. SEEMS LIKE THE GREATER RISK FOR IFR
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI MONDAY MORNING. BREEZY NW WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY THOUGH GUSTS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
20 KTS OR LOWER (EXCEPTION COULD BE MKG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS).


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF WHITEHALL THROUGH
MID EVENING WITH NNW WINDS 15-25 KTS... BUT WILL LET THE ADVISORY
RIDE FOR NOW. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST... NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 262340
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
740 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO MINNESOTA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA PINWHEELING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LARGE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL SLING CLOUDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DIURNAL
CUMULUS FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A COLD POCKET
ALOFT... PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 131.

ON TUESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING... SLIGHT WARMING
ALOFT... AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
CLOUDINESS THAN ON MONDAY.

FROST POTENTIAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH TONIGHT WITH SFC WINDS
HOLDING UP AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND... BUT WILL MENTION
SOME PATCHY FROST. FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE 70S BY THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
MOST PART...THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER THE WEEKEND MAY BE
WET.

A DIGGING SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LARGELY MISS
SW LWR MI WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. DRY WX
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL PULL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION
OF THOSE TWO WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY SUNDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS SUNDAY AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME CAPE WITH LI/S AROUND -2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

MAIN ITEM TO WATCH OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF IFR
CIGS NORTH OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND HURON. RAP...NAM...AND GFS MODELS
ALL INDICATING THIS CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN LOWER MI OVERNIGHT BEFORE THINNING OUT A BIT AS IT ENTERS
SOUTHERN LOWER MI. CURRENT CIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO OF 500 FT TO
1500 FT SHOULD LIFT A BIT AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS SOUTH
INTO MICHIGAN...BUT STILL THINKING GRR AND LANSING MAY SEE NEAR-
IFR CIGS OF 1200 TO 1500 FT. SEEMS LIKE THE GREATER RISK FOR IFR
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI MONDAY MORNING. BREEZY NW WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY THOUGH GUSTS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
20 KTS OR LOWER (EXCEPTION COULD BE MKG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS).


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF WHITEHALL THROUGH
MID EVENING WITH NNW WINDS 15-25 KTS... BUT WILL LET THE ADVISORY
RIDE FOR NOW. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST... NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 261954 CCA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO MINNESOTA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA PINWHEELING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LARGE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL SLING CLOUDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DIURNAL
CUMULUS FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A COLD POCKET
ALOFT... PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 131.

ON TUESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING... SLIGHT WARMING
ALOFT... AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
CLOUDINESS THAN ON MONDAY.

FROST POTENTIAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH TONIGHT WITH SFC WINDS
HOLDING UP AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND... BUT WILL MENTION
SOME PATCHY FROST. FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE 70S BY THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
MOST PART...THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER THE WEEKEND MAY BE
WET.

A DIGGING SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LARGELY MISS
SW LWR MI WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. DRY WX
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL PULL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION
OF THOSE TWO WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY SUNDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS SUNDAY AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME CAPE WITH LI/S AROUND -2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SCATTERED CU WILL DISSIPATE A BIT TOWARD SUNSET AND THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOO. LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL PUSH
STRATOCU SWWD TOWARD THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND CIGS WILL LIKELY
FALL TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 08-10Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF WHITEHALL THROUGH
MID EVENING WITH NNW WINDS 15-25 KTS... BUT WILL LET THE ADVISORY
RIDE FOR NOW. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST... NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE














000
FXUS63 KGRR 261954 CCA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO MINNESOTA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA PINWHEELING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LARGE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL SLING CLOUDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DIURNAL
CUMULUS FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A COLD POCKET
ALOFT... PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 131.

ON TUESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING... SLIGHT WARMING
ALOFT... AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
CLOUDINESS THAN ON MONDAY.

FROST POTENTIAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH TONIGHT WITH SFC WINDS
HOLDING UP AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND... BUT WILL MENTION
SOME PATCHY FROST. FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE 70S BY THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
MOST PART...THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER THE WEEKEND MAY BE
WET.

A DIGGING SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LARGELY MISS
SW LWR MI WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. DRY WX
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL PULL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION
OF THOSE TWO WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY SUNDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS SUNDAY AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME CAPE WITH LI/S AROUND -2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SCATTERED CU WILL DISSIPATE A BIT TOWARD SUNSET AND THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOO. LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL PUSH
STRATOCU SWWD TOWARD THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND CIGS WILL LIKELY
FALL TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 08-10Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF WHITEHALL THROUGH
MID EVENING WITH NNW WINDS 15-25 KTS... BUT WILL LET THE ADVISORY
RIDE FOR NOW. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST... NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE













000
FXUS63 KGRR 261930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO MINNESOTA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA PINWHEELING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LARGE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL SLING CLOUDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DIURNAL
CUMULUS FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A COLD POCKET
ALOFT... PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 131.

ON TUESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING... SLIGHT WARMING
ALOFT... AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
CLOUDINESS THAN ON MONDAY.

FROST POTENTIAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH TONIGHT WITH SFC WINDS
HOLDING UP AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND... BUT WILL MENTION
SOME PATCHY FROST. FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTD DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE 70S BY THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
MOST PART...THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER THE WEEKEND MAY BE
WET.

A DIGGING SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LARGELY MISS
SW LWR MI WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. DRY WX
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL PULL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION
OF THOSE TWO WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY SUNDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS SUNDAY AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME CAPE WITH LI/S AROUND -2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SCATTERED CU WILL DISSIPATE A BIT TOWARD SUNSET AND THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOO. LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL PUSH
STRATOCU SWWD TOWARD THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND CIGS WILL LIKELY
FALL TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 08-10Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF WHITEHALL THROUGH
MID EVENING WITH NNW WINDS 15-25 KTS... BUT WILL LET THE ADVISORY
RIDE FOR NOW. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST... NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE











000
FXUS63 KGRR 261930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO MINNESOTA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA PINWHEELING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LARGE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL SLING CLOUDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DIURNAL
CUMULUS FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A COLD POCKET
ALOFT... PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 131.

ON TUESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING... SLIGHT WARMING
ALOFT... AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
CLOUDINESS THAN ON MONDAY.

FROST POTENTIAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH TONIGHT WITH SFC WINDS
HOLDING UP AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND... BUT WILL MENTION
SOME PATCHY FROST. FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTD DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE 70S BY THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
MOST PART...THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER THE WEEKEND MAY BE
WET.

A DIGGING SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LARGELY MISS
SW LWR MI WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. DRY WX
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL PULL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION
OF THOSE TWO WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY SUNDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS SUNDAY AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME CAPE WITH LI/S AROUND -2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SCATTERED CU WILL DISSIPATE A BIT TOWARD SUNSET AND THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOO. LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL PUSH
STRATOCU SWWD TOWARD THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND CIGS WILL LIKELY
FALL TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 08-10Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF WHITEHALL THROUGH
MID EVENING WITH NNW WINDS 15-25 KTS... BUT WILL LET THE ADVISORY
RIDE FOR NOW. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST... NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE











000
FXUS63 KGRR 261930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO MINNESOTA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA PINWHEELING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LARGE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL SLING CLOUDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DIURNAL
CUMULUS FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A COLD POCKET
ALOFT... PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 131.

ON TUESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING... SLIGHT WARMING
ALOFT... AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
CLOUDINESS THAN ON MONDAY.

FROST POTENTIAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH TONIGHT WITH SFC WINDS
HOLDING UP AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND... BUT WILL MENTION
SOME PATCHY FROST. FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTD DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE 70S BY THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
MOST PART...THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER THE WEEKEND MAY BE
WET.

A DIGGING SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LARGELY MISS
SW LWR MI WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. DRY WX
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL PULL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION
OF THOSE TWO WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY SUNDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS SUNDAY AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME CAPE WITH LI/S AROUND -2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SCATTERED CU WILL DISSIPATE A BIT TOWARD SUNSET AND THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOO. LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL PUSH
STRATOCU SWWD TOWARD THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND CIGS WILL LIKELY
FALL TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 08-10Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF WHITEHALL THROUGH
MID EVENING WITH NNW WINDS 15-25 KTS... BUT WILL LET THE ADVISORY
RIDE FOR NOW. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST... NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE










000
FXUS63 KGRR 261930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO MINNESOTA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA PINWHEELING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LARGE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL SLING CLOUDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DIURNAL
CUMULUS FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A COLD POCKET
ALOFT... PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 131.

ON TUESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING... SLIGHT WARMING
ALOFT... AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
CLOUDINESS THAN ON MONDAY.

FROST POTENTIAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH TONIGHT WITH SFC WINDS
HOLDING UP AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND... BUT WILL MENTION
SOME PATCHY FROST. FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTD DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE 70S BY THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
MOST PART...THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER THE WEEKEND MAY BE
WET.

A DIGGING SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LARGELY MISS
SW LWR MI WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. DRY WX
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL PULL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION
OF THOSE TWO WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY SUNDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS SUNDAY AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME CAPE WITH LI/S AROUND -2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SCATTERED CU WILL DISSIPATE A BIT TOWARD SUNSET AND THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOO. LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL PUSH
STRATOCU SWWD TOWARD THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND CIGS WILL LIKELY
FALL TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 08-10Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF WHITEHALL THROUGH
MID EVENING WITH NNW WINDS 15-25 KTS... BUT WILL LET THE ADVISORY
RIDE FOR NOW. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST... NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE










000
FXUS63 KGRR 261740
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
140 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND BRING PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH A SFC RIDGE IN
CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTN
INTO THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN LWR MI.

HOWEVER A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRY
WX SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THAT WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE 30S. FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT SEEMS LOW OVERALL
GIVEN PARTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OVERNIGHT.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. ANY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE MAIN MESSAGES ARE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
MODERATING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NUDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY WITH 60S EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH 70S A
DECENT BET NEXT WEEKEND.

TWO TIME FRAMES OF CONCERN IN REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...THE FIRST BEING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE SECOND BEING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
PIVOTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
KICKING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM IS KEEPING
THINGS DRY. GIVEN A DRY SURFACE PATTERN (HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE) AND
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ROLL WITH A DRY FORECAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...A SHORTWAVE AT 500MB/S AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEKEND EITHER...BUT HAVE SOME POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...20-30 PCT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SCATTERED CU WILL DISSIPATE A BIT TOWARD SUNSET AND THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOO. LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL PUSH
STRATOCU SWWD TOWARD THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND CIGS WILL LIKELY
FALL TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 08-10Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF WHITEHALL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LATEST HIRES MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS
LAKE BREEZE WITH SUSTAINED NNW WINDS AROUND 20 KTS DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET. THIS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
THE WAVES TO 3 TO 5 FEET. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST... NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 261740
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
140 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND BRING PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH A SFC RIDGE IN
CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTN
INTO THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN LWR MI.

HOWEVER A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRY
WX SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THAT WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE 30S. FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT SEEMS LOW OVERALL
GIVEN PARTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OVERNIGHT.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. ANY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE MAIN MESSAGES ARE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
MODERATING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NUDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY WITH 60S EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH 70S A
DECENT BET NEXT WEEKEND.

TWO TIME FRAMES OF CONCERN IN REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...THE FIRST BEING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE SECOND BEING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
PIVOTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
KICKING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM IS KEEPING
THINGS DRY. GIVEN A DRY SURFACE PATTERN (HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE) AND
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ROLL WITH A DRY FORECAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...A SHORTWAVE AT 500MB/S AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEKEND EITHER...BUT HAVE SOME POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...20-30 PCT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SCATTERED CU WILL DISSIPATE A BIT TOWARD SUNSET AND THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOO. LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL PUSH
STRATOCU SWWD TOWARD THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND CIGS WILL LIKELY
FALL TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 08-10Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF WHITEHALL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LATEST HIRES MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS
LAKE BREEZE WITH SUSTAINED NNW WINDS AROUND 20 KTS DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET. THIS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
THE WAVES TO 3 TO 5 FEET. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST... NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 261740
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
140 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND BRING PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH A SFC RIDGE IN
CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTN
INTO THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN LWR MI.

HOWEVER A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRY
WX SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THAT WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE 30S. FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT SEEMS LOW OVERALL
GIVEN PARTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OVERNIGHT.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. ANY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE MAIN MESSAGES ARE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
MODERATING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NUDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY WITH 60S EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH 70S A
DECENT BET NEXT WEEKEND.

TWO TIME FRAMES OF CONCERN IN REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...THE FIRST BEING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE SECOND BEING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
PIVOTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
KICKING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM IS KEEPING
THINGS DRY. GIVEN A DRY SURFACE PATTERN (HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE) AND
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ROLL WITH A DRY FORECAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...A SHORTWAVE AT 500MB/S AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEKEND EITHER...BUT HAVE SOME POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...20-30 PCT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SCATTERED CU WILL DISSIPATE A BIT TOWARD SUNSET AND THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOO. LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL PUSH
STRATOCU SWWD TOWARD THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND CIGS WILL LIKELY
FALL TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 08-10Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF WHITEHALL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LATEST HIRES MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS
LAKE BREEZE WITH SUSTAINED NNW WINDS AROUND 20 KTS DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET. THIS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
THE WAVES TO 3 TO 5 FEET. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST... NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 261740
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
140 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND BRING PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH A SFC RIDGE IN
CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTN
INTO THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN LWR MI.

HOWEVER A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRY
WX SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THAT WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE 30S. FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT SEEMS LOW OVERALL
GIVEN PARTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OVERNIGHT.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. ANY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE MAIN MESSAGES ARE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
MODERATING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NUDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY WITH 60S EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH 70S A
DECENT BET NEXT WEEKEND.

TWO TIME FRAMES OF CONCERN IN REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...THE FIRST BEING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE SECOND BEING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
PIVOTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
KICKING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM IS KEEPING
THINGS DRY. GIVEN A DRY SURFACE PATTERN (HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE) AND
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ROLL WITH A DRY FORECAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...A SHORTWAVE AT 500MB/S AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEKEND EITHER...BUT HAVE SOME POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...20-30 PCT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SCATTERED CU WILL DISSIPATE A BIT TOWARD SUNSET AND THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOO. LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL PUSH
STRATOCU SWWD TOWARD THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND CIGS WILL LIKELY
FALL TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 08-10Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF WHITEHALL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LATEST HIRES MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS
LAKE BREEZE WITH SUSTAINED NNW WINDS AROUND 20 KTS DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET. THIS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
THE WAVES TO 3 TO 5 FEET. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST... NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 261459
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND BRING PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH A SFC RIDGE IN
CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTN
INTO THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN LWR MI.

HOWEVER A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRY
WX SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THAT WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE 30S. FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT SEEMS LOW OVERALL
GIVEN PARTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OVERNIGHT.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. ANY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE MAIN MESSAGES ARE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
MODERATING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NUDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY WITH 60S EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH 70S A
DECENT BET NEXT WEEKEND.

TWO TIME FRAMES OF CONCERN IN REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...THE FIRST BEING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE SECOND BEING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
PIVOTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
KICKING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM IS KEEPING
THINGS DRY. GIVEN A DRY SURFACE PATTERN (HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE) AND
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ROLL WITH A DRY FORECAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...A SHORTWAVE AT 500MB/S AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEKEND EITHER...BUT HAVE SOME POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...20-30 PCT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
SOME BROKEN CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5000FT. SKIES MAY
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN BASES ABOVE 5000FT.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-20
KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF WHITEHALL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LATEST HIRES MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS
LAKE BREEZE WITH SUSTAINED NNW WINDS AROUND 20 KTS DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET. THIS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
THE WAVES TO 3 TO 5 FEET. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST... NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE






000
FXUS63 KGRR 261459
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND BRING PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH A SFC RIDGE IN
CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTN
INTO THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN LWR MI.

HOWEVER A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRY
WX SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THAT WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE 30S. FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT SEEMS LOW OVERALL
GIVEN PARTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OVERNIGHT.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. ANY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE MAIN MESSAGES ARE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
MODERATING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NUDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY WITH 60S EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH 70S A
DECENT BET NEXT WEEKEND.

TWO TIME FRAMES OF CONCERN IN REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...THE FIRST BEING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE SECOND BEING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
PIVOTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
KICKING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM IS KEEPING
THINGS DRY. GIVEN A DRY SURFACE PATTERN (HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE) AND
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ROLL WITH A DRY FORECAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...A SHORTWAVE AT 500MB/S AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEKEND EITHER...BUT HAVE SOME POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...20-30 PCT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
SOME BROKEN CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5000FT. SKIES MAY
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN BASES ABOVE 5000FT.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-20
KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF WHITEHALL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LATEST HIRES MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS
LAKE BREEZE WITH SUSTAINED NNW WINDS AROUND 20 KTS DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET. THIS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
THE WAVES TO 3 TO 5 FEET. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST... NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 261459
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND BRING PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH A SFC RIDGE IN
CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTN
INTO THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN LWR MI.

HOWEVER A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRY
WX SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THAT WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE 30S. FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT SEEMS LOW OVERALL
GIVEN PARTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OVERNIGHT.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. ANY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE MAIN MESSAGES ARE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
MODERATING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NUDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY WITH 60S EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH 70S A
DECENT BET NEXT WEEKEND.

TWO TIME FRAMES OF CONCERN IN REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...THE FIRST BEING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE SECOND BEING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
PIVOTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
KICKING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM IS KEEPING
THINGS DRY. GIVEN A DRY SURFACE PATTERN (HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE) AND
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ROLL WITH A DRY FORECAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...A SHORTWAVE AT 500MB/S AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEKEND EITHER...BUT HAVE SOME POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...20-30 PCT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
SOME BROKEN CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5000FT. SKIES MAY
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN BASES ABOVE 5000FT.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-20
KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF WHITEHALL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LATEST HIRES MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS
LAKE BREEZE WITH SUSTAINED NNW WINDS AROUND 20 KTS DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET. THIS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
THE WAVES TO 3 TO 5 FEET. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST... NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 261459
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND BRING PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH A SFC RIDGE IN
CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTN
INTO THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN LWR MI.

HOWEVER A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRY
WX SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THAT WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE 30S. FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT SEEMS LOW OVERALL
GIVEN PARTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OVERNIGHT.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. ANY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE MAIN MESSAGES ARE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
MODERATING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NUDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY WITH 60S EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH 70S A
DECENT BET NEXT WEEKEND.

TWO TIME FRAMES OF CONCERN IN REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...THE FIRST BEING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE SECOND BEING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
PIVOTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
KICKING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM IS KEEPING
THINGS DRY. GIVEN A DRY SURFACE PATTERN (HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE) AND
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ROLL WITH A DRY FORECAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...A SHORTWAVE AT 500MB/S AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEKEND EITHER...BUT HAVE SOME POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...20-30 PCT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
SOME BROKEN CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5000FT. SKIES MAY
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN BASES ABOVE 5000FT.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-20
KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF WHITEHALL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LATEST HIRES MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS
LAKE BREEZE WITH SUSTAINED NNW WINDS AROUND 20 KTS DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET. THIS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
THE WAVES TO 3 TO 5 FEET. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST... NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE






000
FXUS63 KGRR 261433
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1033 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND BRING PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH A SFC RIDGE IN
CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTN
INTO THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN LWR MI.

HOWEVER A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRY
WX SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THAT WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE 30S. FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT SEEMS LOW OVERALL
GIVEN PARTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OVERNIGHT.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. ANY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE MAIN MESSAGES ARE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
MODERATING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NUDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY WITH 60S EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH 70S A
DECENT BET NEXT WEEKEND.

TWO TIME FRAMES OF CONCERN IN REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...THE FIRST BEING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE SECOND BEING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
PIVOTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
KICKING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM IS KEEPING
THINGS DRY. GIVEN A DRY SURFACE PATTERN (HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE) AND
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ROLL WITH A DRY FORECAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...A SHORTWAVE AT 500MB/S AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEKEND EITHER...BUT HAVE SOME POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...20-30 PCT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
SOME BROKEN CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5000FT. SKIES MAY
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN BASES ABOVE 5000FT.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-20
KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF WHITEHALL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LATEST HIRES MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS
LAKE BREEZE WITH SUSTAINED NNW WINDS AROUND 20 KTS DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET. THIS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
THE WAVES TO 3 TO 5 FEET. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 261433
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1033 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND BRING PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH A SFC RIDGE IN
CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTN
INTO THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN LWR MI.

HOWEVER A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRY
WX SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THAT WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE 30S. FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT SEEMS LOW OVERALL
GIVEN PARTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OVERNIGHT.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. ANY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE MAIN MESSAGES ARE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
MODERATING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NUDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY WITH 60S EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH 70S A
DECENT BET NEXT WEEKEND.

TWO TIME FRAMES OF CONCERN IN REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...THE FIRST BEING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE SECOND BEING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
PIVOTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
KICKING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM IS KEEPING
THINGS DRY. GIVEN A DRY SURFACE PATTERN (HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE) AND
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ROLL WITH A DRY FORECAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...A SHORTWAVE AT 500MB/S AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEKEND EITHER...BUT HAVE SOME POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...20-30 PCT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
SOME BROKEN CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5000FT. SKIES MAY
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN BASES ABOVE 5000FT.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-20
KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF WHITEHALL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LATEST HIRES MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS
LAKE BREEZE WITH SUSTAINED NNW WINDS AROUND 20 KTS DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET. THIS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
THE WAVES TO 3 TO 5 FEET. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 261141
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
741 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND BRING PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH A SFC RIDGE IN
CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTN
INTO THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN LWR MI.

HOWEVER A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRY
WX SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THAT WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE 30S. FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT SEEMS LOW OVERALL
GIVEN PARTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OVERNIGHT.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. ANY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE MAIN MESSAGES ARE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
MODERATING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NUDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY WITH 60S EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH 70S A
DECENT BET NEXT WEEKEND.

TWO TIME FRAMES OF CONCERN IN REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...THE FIRST BEING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE SECOND BEING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
PIVOTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
KICKING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM IS KEEPING
THINGS DRY. GIVEN A DRY SURFACE PATTERN (HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE) AND
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ROLL WITH A DRY FORECAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...A SHORTWAVE AT 500MB/S AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEKEND EITHER...BUT HAVE SOME POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...20-30 PCT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
SOME BROKEN CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5000FT. SKIES MAY
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN BASES ABOVE 5000FT.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-20
KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS MAINLY
OVER OUR SOUTHERN NEARSHORE ZONES. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY VERY BRIEFLY
FLIRT WITH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SOUTH OF HOLLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED 2 TO 4 FEET THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 261141
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
741 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND BRING PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH A SFC RIDGE IN
CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTN
INTO THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN LWR MI.

HOWEVER A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRY
WX SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THAT WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE 30S. FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT SEEMS LOW OVERALL
GIVEN PARTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OVERNIGHT.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. ANY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE MAIN MESSAGES ARE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
MODERATING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NUDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY WITH 60S EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH 70S A
DECENT BET NEXT WEEKEND.

TWO TIME FRAMES OF CONCERN IN REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...THE FIRST BEING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE SECOND BEING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
PIVOTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
KICKING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM IS KEEPING
THINGS DRY. GIVEN A DRY SURFACE PATTERN (HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE) AND
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ROLL WITH A DRY FORECAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...A SHORTWAVE AT 500MB/S AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEKEND EITHER...BUT HAVE SOME POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...20-30 PCT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
SOME BROKEN CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5000FT. SKIES MAY
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN BASES ABOVE 5000FT.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-20
KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS MAINLY
OVER OUR SOUTHERN NEARSHORE ZONES. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY VERY BRIEFLY
FLIRT WITH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SOUTH OF HOLLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED 2 TO 4 FEET THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...LAURENS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 261141
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
741 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND BRING PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH A SFC RIDGE IN
CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTN
INTO THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN LWR MI.

HOWEVER A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRY
WX SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THAT WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE 30S. FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT SEEMS LOW OVERALL
GIVEN PARTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OVERNIGHT.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. ANY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE MAIN MESSAGES ARE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
MODERATING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NUDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY WITH 60S EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH 70S A
DECENT BET NEXT WEEKEND.

TWO TIME FRAMES OF CONCERN IN REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...THE FIRST BEING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE SECOND BEING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
PIVOTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
KICKING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM IS KEEPING
THINGS DRY. GIVEN A DRY SURFACE PATTERN (HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE) AND
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ROLL WITH A DRY FORECAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...A SHORTWAVE AT 500MB/S AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEKEND EITHER...BUT HAVE SOME POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...20-30 PCT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
SOME BROKEN CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5000FT. SKIES MAY
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN BASES ABOVE 5000FT.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-20
KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS MAINLY
OVER OUR SOUTHERN NEARSHORE ZONES. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY VERY BRIEFLY
FLIRT WITH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SOUTH OF HOLLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED 2 TO 4 FEET THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...LAURENS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 261141
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
741 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND BRING PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH A SFC RIDGE IN
CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTN
INTO THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN LWR MI.

HOWEVER A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRY
WX SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THAT WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE 30S. FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT SEEMS LOW OVERALL
GIVEN PARTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OVERNIGHT.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. ANY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE MAIN MESSAGES ARE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
MODERATING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NUDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY WITH 60S EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH 70S A
DECENT BET NEXT WEEKEND.

TWO TIME FRAMES OF CONCERN IN REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...THE FIRST BEING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE SECOND BEING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
PIVOTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
KICKING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM IS KEEPING
THINGS DRY. GIVEN A DRY SURFACE PATTERN (HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE) AND
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ROLL WITH A DRY FORECAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...A SHORTWAVE AT 500MB/S AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEKEND EITHER...BUT HAVE SOME POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...20-30 PCT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
SOME BROKEN CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5000FT. SKIES MAY
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN BASES ABOVE 5000FT.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-20
KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS MAINLY
OVER OUR SOUTHERN NEARSHORE ZONES. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY VERY BRIEFLY
FLIRT WITH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SOUTH OF HOLLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED 2 TO 4 FEET THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 260728
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE UPCCOMING WEEK AND BRING PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH A SFC RIDGE IN
CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTN
INTO THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN LWR MI.

HOWEVER A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRY
WX SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THAT WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE 30S. FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT SEEMS LOW OVERALL
GIVEN PARTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OVERNIGHT.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. ANY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE MAIN MESSAGES ARE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
MODERATING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NUDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY WITH 60S EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH 70S A
DECENT BET NEXT WEEKEND.

TWO TIME FRAMES OF CONCERN IN REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...THE FIRST BEING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE SECOND BEING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
PIVOTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
KICKING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM IS KEEPING
THINGS DRY. GIVEN A DRY SURFACE PATTERN (HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE) AND
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ROLL WITH A DRY FORECAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...A SHORTWAVE AT 500MB/S AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEKEND EITHER...BUT HAVE SOME POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...20-30 PCT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. I DID REFLECT GUSTS IN THE
FORECAST SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR KMKG...KAZO...KBTL AND KGRR. LAKE
BREEZE COULD MOVE INLAND RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT AND GUSTS OVER
20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS MAINLY
OVER OUR SOUTHERN NEARSHORE ZONES. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY VERY BRIEFLY
FLIRT WITH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SOUTH OF HOLLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED 2 TO 4 FEET THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 260728
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE UPCCOMING WEEK AND BRING PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH A SFC RIDGE IN
CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTN
INTO THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN LWR MI.

HOWEVER A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRY
WX SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THAT WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE 30S. FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT SEEMS LOW OVERALL
GIVEN PARTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OVERNIGHT.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. ANY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE MAIN MESSAGES ARE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
MODERATING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NUDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY WITH 60S EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH 70S A
DECENT BET NEXT WEEKEND.

TWO TIME FRAMES OF CONCERN IN REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...THE FIRST BEING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE SECOND BEING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
PIVOTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
KICKING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM IS KEEPING
THINGS DRY. GIVEN A DRY SURFACE PATTERN (HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE) AND
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ROLL WITH A DRY FORECAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...A SHORTWAVE AT 500MB/S AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEKEND EITHER...BUT HAVE SOME POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...20-30 PCT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. I DID REFLECT GUSTS IN THE
FORECAST SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR KMKG...KAZO...KBTL AND KGRR. LAKE
BREEZE COULD MOVE INLAND RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT AND GUSTS OVER
20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS MAINLY
OVER OUR SOUTHERN NEARSHORE ZONES. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY VERY BRIEFLY
FLIRT WITH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SOUTH OF HOLLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED 2 TO 4 FEET THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 260728
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE UPCCOMING WEEK AND BRING PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH A SFC RIDGE IN
CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTN
INTO THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN LWR MI.

HOWEVER A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRY
WX SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THAT WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE 30S. FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT SEEMS LOW OVERALL
GIVEN PARTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OVERNIGHT.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WX MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. ANY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF OUR FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE MAIN MESSAGES ARE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
MODERATING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NUDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY WITH 60S EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH 70S A
DECENT BET NEXT WEEKEND.

TWO TIME FRAMES OF CONCERN IN REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...THE FIRST BEING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE SECOND BEING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
PIVOTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
KICKING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM IS KEEPING
THINGS DRY. GIVEN A DRY SURFACE PATTERN (HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE) AND
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ROLL WITH A DRY FORECAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...A SHORTWAVE AT 500MB/S AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEKEND EITHER...BUT HAVE SOME POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...20-30 PCT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. I DID REFLECT GUSTS IN THE
FORECAST SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR KMKG...KAZO...KBTL AND KGRR. LAKE
BREEZE COULD MOVE INLAND RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT AND GUSTS OVER
20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS MAINLY
OVER OUR SOUTHERN NEARSHORE ZONES. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY VERY BRIEFLY
FLIRT WITH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SOUTH OF HOLLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED 2 TO 4 FEET THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...LAURENS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 260312
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1112 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
OUR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE FROST POTENTIAL AT NIGHT
AND THE EXTENT OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS.

DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT SINCE GUIDANCE
INDICATES WINDS HOLDING UP AT 5 TO 10 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FROST HOWEVER IF/WHERE WINDS DO MANAGE
TO CALM OUT LATE TONIGHT SOME PATCHY FROST IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

ITS A SIMILAR MARGINAL SCENARIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE WINDS HOLDING UP... ALTHOUGH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE OF
THE WINDS CALMING OUT ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS GETS
CLOSER.

WITH SHORTWAVES STILL SWINGING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE
UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST... WILL NOT GET TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD
COVER FCST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO ANY CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES THEMSELVES... SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS
ALSO LIKELY DUE TO CHILLY H8 TEMPS ALOFT OF 0C TO -3C. CUMULUS
SCHEMES ARE STRONGEST EAST OF HWY 131 SO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE INLAND AREAS.

IN THE NEAR TERM... STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SOUTH OF A SAUGATUCK TO BATTLE CREEK LINE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION WILL SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL REACH 70 BY THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WHICH
IS WHERE MOST OF THE PCPN WILL BE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
POINT TOWARD A TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
TUESDAY. IT/S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A SPRINKLE FROM THIS BUT MORE
LIKELY WE/LL BE DRY. THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROLONG THE DRYNESS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AS THE HIGH TO
THE SOUTH MOVES EAST. SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH AND SO THE FRONT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. I DID REFLECT GUSTS IN THE
FORECAST SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR KMKG...KAZO...KBTL AND KGRR. LAKE
BREEZE COULD MOVE INLAND RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT AND GUSTS OVER
20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

INCREASING NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 260312
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1112 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
OUR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE FROST POTENTIAL AT NIGHT
AND THE EXTENT OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS.

DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT SINCE GUIDANCE
INDICATES WINDS HOLDING UP AT 5 TO 10 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FROST HOWEVER IF/WHERE WINDS DO MANAGE
TO CALM OUT LATE TONIGHT SOME PATCHY FROST IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

ITS A SIMILAR MARGINAL SCENARIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE WINDS HOLDING UP... ALTHOUGH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE OF
THE WINDS CALMING OUT ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS GETS
CLOSER.

WITH SHORTWAVES STILL SWINGING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE
UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST... WILL NOT GET TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD
COVER FCST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO ANY CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES THEMSELVES... SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS
ALSO LIKELY DUE TO CHILLY H8 TEMPS ALOFT OF 0C TO -3C. CUMULUS
SCHEMES ARE STRONGEST EAST OF HWY 131 SO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE INLAND AREAS.

IN THE NEAR TERM... STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SOUTH OF A SAUGATUCK TO BATTLE CREEK LINE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION WILL SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL REACH 70 BY THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WHICH
IS WHERE MOST OF THE PCPN WILL BE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
POINT TOWARD A TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
TUESDAY. IT/S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A SPRINKLE FROM THIS BUT MORE
LIKELY WE/LL BE DRY. THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROLONG THE DRYNESS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AS THE HIGH TO
THE SOUTH MOVES EAST. SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH AND SO THE FRONT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. I DID REFLECT GUSTS IN THE
FORECAST SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR KMKG...KAZO...KBTL AND KGRR. LAKE
BREEZE COULD MOVE INLAND RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT AND GUSTS OVER
20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

INCREASING NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 252300
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
700 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
OUR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE FROST POTENTIAL AT NIGHT
AND THE EXTENT OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS.

DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT SINCE GUIDANCE
INDICATES WINDS HOLDING UP AT 5 TO 10 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FROST HOWEVER IF/WHERE WINDS DO MANAGE
TO CALM OUT LATE TONIGHT SOME PATCHY FROST IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

ITS A SIMILAR MARGINAL SCENARIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE WINDS HOLDING UP... ALTHOUGH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE OF
THE WINDS CALMING OUT ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS GETS
CLOSER.

WITH SHORTWAVES STILL SWINGING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE
UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST... WILL NOT GET TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD
COVER FCST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO ANY CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES THEMSELVES... SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS
ALSO LIKELY DUE TO CHILLY H8 TEMPS ALOFT OF 0C TO -3C. CUMULUS
SCHEMES ARE STRONGEST EAST OF HWY 131 SO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE INLAND AREAS.

IN THE NEAR TERM... STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SOUTH OF A SAUGATUCK TO BATTLE CREEK LINE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION WILL SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL REACH 70 BY THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WHICH
IS WHERE MOST OF THE PCPN WILL BE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
POINT TOWARD A TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
TUESDAY. IT/S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A SPRINKLE FROM THIS BUT MORE
LIKELY WE/LL BE DRY. THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROLONG THE DRYNESS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AS THE HIGH TO
THE SOUTH MOVES EAST. SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH AND SO THE FRONT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES AS A DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS IN
FROM NORTHERN LOWER MI.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

INCREASING NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 252300
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
700 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
OUR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE FROST POTENTIAL AT NIGHT
AND THE EXTENT OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS.

DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT SINCE GUIDANCE
INDICATES WINDS HOLDING UP AT 5 TO 10 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FROST HOWEVER IF/WHERE WINDS DO MANAGE
TO CALM OUT LATE TONIGHT SOME PATCHY FROST IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

ITS A SIMILAR MARGINAL SCENARIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE WINDS HOLDING UP... ALTHOUGH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE OF
THE WINDS CALMING OUT ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS GETS
CLOSER.

WITH SHORTWAVES STILL SWINGING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE
UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST... WILL NOT GET TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD
COVER FCST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO ANY CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES THEMSELVES... SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS
ALSO LIKELY DUE TO CHILLY H8 TEMPS ALOFT OF 0C TO -3C. CUMULUS
SCHEMES ARE STRONGEST EAST OF HWY 131 SO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE INLAND AREAS.

IN THE NEAR TERM... STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SOUTH OF A SAUGATUCK TO BATTLE CREEK LINE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION WILL SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL REACH 70 BY THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WHICH
IS WHERE MOST OF THE PCPN WILL BE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
POINT TOWARD A TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
TUESDAY. IT/S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A SPRINKLE FROM THIS BUT MORE
LIKELY WE/LL BE DRY. THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROLONG THE DRYNESS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AS THE HIGH TO
THE SOUTH MOVES EAST. SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH AND SO THE FRONT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES AS A DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS IN
FROM NORTHERN LOWER MI.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

INCREASING NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 251956 CCA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
OUR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE FROST POTENTIAL AT NIGHT
AND THE EXTENT OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS.

DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT SINCE GUIDANCE
INDICATES WINDS HOLDING UP AT 5 TO 10 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FROST HOWEVER IF/WHERE WINDS DO MANAGE
TO CALM OUT LATE TONIGHT SOME PATCHY FROST IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

ITS A SIMILAR MARGINAL SCENARIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE WINDS HOLDING UP... ALTHOUGH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE OF
THE WINDS CALMING OUT ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS GETS
CLOSER.

WITH SHORTWAVES STILL SWINGING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE
UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST... WILL NOT GET TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD
COVER FCST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO ANY CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES THEMSELVES... SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS
ALSO LIKELY DUE TO CHILLY H8 TEMPS ALOFT OF 0C TO -3C. CUMULUS
SCHEMES ARE STRONGEST EAST OF HWY 131 SO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE INLAND AREAS.

IN THE NEAR TERM... STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SOUTH OF A SAUGATUCK TO BATTLE CREEK LINE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION WILL SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL REACH 70 BY THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WHICH
IS WHERE MOST OF THE PCPN WILL BE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
POINT TOWARD A TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
TUESDAY. IT/S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A SPRINKLE FROM THIS BUT MORE
LIKELY WE/LL BE DRY. THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROLONG THE DRYNESS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AS THE HIGH TO
THE SOUTH MOVES EAST. SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH AND SO THE FRONT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER...SOME
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE RAIN FALLING ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA. THOSE SITES SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
TONIGHT. VFR CIGS AROUND 5K FT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOWER SUNDAY
MORNING FROM ONTARIO.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

INCREASING NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE













000
FXUS63 KGRR 251956 CCA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
OUR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE FROST POTENTIAL AT NIGHT
AND THE EXTENT OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS.

DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT SINCE GUIDANCE
INDICATES WINDS HOLDING UP AT 5 TO 10 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FROST HOWEVER IF/WHERE WINDS DO MANAGE
TO CALM OUT LATE TONIGHT SOME PATCHY FROST IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

ITS A SIMILAR MARGINAL SCENARIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE WINDS HOLDING UP... ALTHOUGH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE OF
THE WINDS CALMING OUT ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS GETS
CLOSER.

WITH SHORTWAVES STILL SWINGING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE
UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST... WILL NOT GET TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD
COVER FCST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO ANY CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES THEMSELVES... SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS
ALSO LIKELY DUE TO CHILLY H8 TEMPS ALOFT OF 0C TO -3C. CUMULUS
SCHEMES ARE STRONGEST EAST OF HWY 131 SO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE INLAND AREAS.

IN THE NEAR TERM... STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SOUTH OF A SAUGATUCK TO BATTLE CREEK LINE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION WILL SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL REACH 70 BY THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WHICH
IS WHERE MOST OF THE PCPN WILL BE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
POINT TOWARD A TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
TUESDAY. IT/S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A SPRINKLE FROM THIS BUT MORE
LIKELY WE/LL BE DRY. THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROLONG THE DRYNESS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AS THE HIGH TO
THE SOUTH MOVES EAST. SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH AND SO THE FRONT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER...SOME
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE RAIN FALLING ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA. THOSE SITES SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
TONIGHT. VFR CIGS AROUND 5K FT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOWER SUNDAY
MORNING FROM ONTARIO.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

INCREASING NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE














000
FXUS63 KGRR 251956 CCA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
OUR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE FROST POTENTIAL AT NIGHT
AND THE EXTENT OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS.

DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT SINCE GUIDANCE
INDICATES WINDS HOLDING UP AT 5 TO 10 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FROST HOWEVER IF/WHERE WINDS DO MANAGE
TO CALM OUT LATE TONIGHT SOME PATCHY FROST IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

ITS A SIMILAR MARGINAL SCENARIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE WINDS HOLDING UP... ALTHOUGH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE OF
THE WINDS CALMING OUT ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS GETS
CLOSER.

WITH SHORTWAVES STILL SWINGING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE
UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST... WILL NOT GET TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD
COVER FCST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO ANY CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES THEMSELVES... SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS
ALSO LIKELY DUE TO CHILLY H8 TEMPS ALOFT OF 0C TO -3C. CUMULUS
SCHEMES ARE STRONGEST EAST OF HWY 131 SO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE INLAND AREAS.

IN THE NEAR TERM... STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SOUTH OF A SAUGATUCK TO BATTLE CREEK LINE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION WILL SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL REACH 70 BY THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WHICH
IS WHERE MOST OF THE PCPN WILL BE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
POINT TOWARD A TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
TUESDAY. IT/S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A SPRINKLE FROM THIS BUT MORE
LIKELY WE/LL BE DRY. THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROLONG THE DRYNESS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AS THE HIGH TO
THE SOUTH MOVES EAST. SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH AND SO THE FRONT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER...SOME
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE RAIN FALLING ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA. THOSE SITES SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
TONIGHT. VFR CIGS AROUND 5K FT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOWER SUNDAY
MORNING FROM ONTARIO.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

INCREASING NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE














000
FXUS63 KGRR 251956 CCA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
OUR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE FROST POTENTIAL AT NIGHT
AND THE EXTENT OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS.

DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT SINCE GUIDANCE
INDICATES WINDS HOLDING UP AT 5 TO 10 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FROST HOWEVER IF/WHERE WINDS DO MANAGE
TO CALM OUT LATE TONIGHT SOME PATCHY FROST IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

ITS A SIMILAR MARGINAL SCENARIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE WINDS HOLDING UP... ALTHOUGH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE OF
THE WINDS CALMING OUT ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS GETS
CLOSER.

WITH SHORTWAVES STILL SWINGING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE
UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST... WILL NOT GET TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD
COVER FCST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO ANY CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES THEMSELVES... SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS
ALSO LIKELY DUE TO CHILLY H8 TEMPS ALOFT OF 0C TO -3C. CUMULUS
SCHEMES ARE STRONGEST EAST OF HWY 131 SO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE INLAND AREAS.

IN THE NEAR TERM... STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SOUTH OF A SAUGATUCK TO BATTLE CREEK LINE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION WILL SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL REACH 70 BY THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WHICH
IS WHERE MOST OF THE PCPN WILL BE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
POINT TOWARD A TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
TUESDAY. IT/S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A SPRINKLE FROM THIS BUT MORE
LIKELY WE/LL BE DRY. THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROLONG THE DRYNESS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AS THE HIGH TO
THE SOUTH MOVES EAST. SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH AND SO THE FRONT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER...SOME
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE RAIN FALLING ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA. THOSE SITES SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
TONIGHT. VFR CIGS AROUND 5K FT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOWER SUNDAY
MORNING FROM ONTARIO.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

INCREASING NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE













000
FXUS63 KGRR 251930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
OUR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE FROST POTENTIAL AT NIGHT
AND THE EXTENT OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS.

DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT SINCE GUIDANCE
INDICATES WINDS HOLDING UP AT 5 TO 10 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FROST HOWEVER IF/WHERE WINDS DO MANAGE
TO CALM OUT LATE TONIGHT SOME PATCHY FROST IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
ITS A SIMILAR MARGINAL SCENARIO ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE WINDS HOLDING UP.

WITH SHORTWAVES STILL SWINGING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE
UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST... WILL NOT GET TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD
COVER FCST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO ANY CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES THEMSELVES... SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS
ALSO LIKELY DUE TO CHILLY H8 TEMPS ALOFT OF 0C TO -3C. CUMULUS
SCHEMES ARE STRONGEST EAST OF HWY 131 SO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE INLAND AREAS.

IN THE NEAR TERM... STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SOUTH OF A SAUGATUCK TO BATTLE CREEK LINE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION WILL SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL REACH 70 BY THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WHICH
IS WHERE MOST OF THE PCPN WILL BE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
POINT TOWARD A TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
TUESDAY. IT/S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A SPRINKLE FROM THIS BUT MORE
LIKELY WE/LL BE DRY. THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROLONG THE DRYNESS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AS THE HIGH TO
THE SOUTH MOVES EAST. SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH AND SO THE FRONT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER...SOME
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE RAIN FALLING ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA. THOSE SITES SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
TONIGHT. VFR CIGS AROUND 5K FT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOWER SUNDAY
MORNING FROM ONTARIO.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

INCREASING NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE










000
FXUS63 KGRR 251930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
OUR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE FROST POTENTIAL AT NIGHT
AND THE EXTENT OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS.

DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT SINCE GUIDANCE
INDICATES WINDS HOLDING UP AT 5 TO 10 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FROST HOWEVER IF/WHERE WINDS DO MANAGE
TO CALM OUT LATE TONIGHT SOME PATCHY FROST IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
ITS A SIMILAR MARGINAL SCENARIO ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE WINDS HOLDING UP.

WITH SHORTWAVES STILL SWINGING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE
UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST... WILL NOT GET TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD
COVER FCST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO ANY CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES THEMSELVES... SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS
ALSO LIKELY DUE TO CHILLY H8 TEMPS ALOFT OF 0C TO -3C. CUMULUS
SCHEMES ARE STRONGEST EAST OF HWY 131 SO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE INLAND AREAS.

IN THE NEAR TERM... STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SOUTH OF A SAUGATUCK TO BATTLE CREEK LINE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION WILL SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL REACH 70 BY THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WHICH
IS WHERE MOST OF THE PCPN WILL BE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
POINT TOWARD A TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
TUESDAY. IT/S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A SPRINKLE FROM THIS BUT MORE
LIKELY WE/LL BE DRY. THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROLONG THE DRYNESS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AS THE HIGH TO
THE SOUTH MOVES EAST. SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH AND SO THE FRONT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER...SOME
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE RAIN FALLING ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA. THOSE SITES SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
TONIGHT. VFR CIGS AROUND 5K FT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOWER SUNDAY
MORNING FROM ONTARIO.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

INCREASING NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE











000
FXUS63 KGRR 251745
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
145 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
A COOL AND NICE DAY TO THE AREA.

THE FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. SOME
CLOUDS MAY ROTATE IN FROM THE NE ON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY JUST EAST OF THE STATE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEN
COME ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR
AVERAGE...AND POTENTIALLY ABOVE AVERAGE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON LIMITED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY HOLLAND TO JACKSON. LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
IDEA.

THE CLOUD FCST IS A BIT TRICKY NORTH OF I-96 AS LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGE SHOWS SOME THINNING TAKING PLACE IN THE MID CLOUD DECK. WILL
HAVE SKIES BECOMING PTLY TO MSTLY SUNNY UP NORTH BUT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-96. WARMEST HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WEST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND NORTH OF I-96 WHERE
READINGS MAY APPROACH LATER TODAY 60 DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
CLEARING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DEALING WITH THE RAIN
CHCS DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM TRYING TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

THE TREND IN THE LATEST DATA ALL POINTS TOWARD ALMOST ALL
OF THE RAIN MISSING THE CWFA AFTER THE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE AREA ON THE WRN
FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR MAINE HAS TRENDED QUICKER/STRONGER AND
IS DEFLECTING THE PLAINS LOW FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE LIMIT IN NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOW IN THE
PLAINS. WE HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94.

ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL SEE A QUIET AND DRY
PERIOD SETTLE IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
MILDER DAY ON SUN WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS WITH SOME FROST AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINES FOR LOCATIONS IN THE GROWING SEASON ALREADY AS TEMPS WILL
BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S. ENOUGH WIND MAY REMAIN UP SUN NIGHT TO
PREVENT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

WE ARE WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL TO POSSIBLY NEED TO ADD SOME LOW
CHCS OF PCPN IN FOR THE DAY ON MON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTH
THROUGH THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE ON MON. SOME MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT IN ALSO WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW IN
NATURE...SO WE ARE THINKING THAT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER RIGHT
NOW FOR THE ERN SECTION OF THE CWFA IS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE UNEVENTFUL WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARDS HIGHER HEIGHTS AND EVEN RIDGING BY NEXT
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM FROM AROUND ZERO C MONDAY
NIGHT...TO NEAR +10 C NEXT FRI/SAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
FROM AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 70 BY NEXT SATURDAY. NEXT
SUNDAY/S HIGHS COULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH BOTH THE ECWMF AND
THE GFS INDICATING +12 C AT 850MB/S.

HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN ALL FORECAST PERIODS EXCEPT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ECWMF STILL BRINGS IN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE...70-80PCT IN THE
1000-700MB LAYER. ONLY HAVE A 20PCT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WED
AND WED NIGHT AT THIS POINT. WE WILL WATCH TRENDS WITH THIS WEAK
SYSTEM AND NUDGE PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ACCORDINGLY.
OVERALL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE LONG
TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OR FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER...SOME
INTERMITTANT MVFR CIGS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE RAIN FALLING ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA. THOSE SITES SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
TONIGHT. VFR CIGS AROUND 5K FT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOWER SUNDAY
MORNING FROM ONTARIO.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL HAVE
BREEZY CONDITIONS HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST A NOTCH BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH MON. WINDS
SHOULD TEND TO DROP OFF TOWARD THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 251557
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
A COOL AND NICE DAY TO THE AREA.

THE FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. SOME
CLOUDS MAY ROTATE IN FROM THE NE ON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY JUST EAST OF THE STATE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEN
COME ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR
AVERAGE...AND POTENTIALLY ABOVE AVERAGE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON LIMITED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY HOLLAND TO JACKSON. LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
IDEA.

THE CLOUD FCST IS A BIT TRICKY NORTH OF I-96 AS LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGE SHOWS SOME THINNING TAKING PLACE IN THE MID CLOUD DECK. WILL
HAVE SKIES BECOMING PTLY TO MSTLY SUNNY UP NORTH BUT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-96. WARMEST HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WEST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND NORTH OF I-96 WHERE
READINGS MAY APPROACH LATER TODAY 60 DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
CLEARING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DEALING WITH THE RAIN
CHCS DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM TRYING TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

THE TREND IN THE LATEST DATA ALL POINTS TOWARD ALMOST ALL
OF THE RAIN MISSING THE CWFA AFTER THE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE AREA ON THE WRN
FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR MAINE HAS TRENDED QUICKER/STRONGER AND
IS DEFLECTING THE PLAINS LOW FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE LIMIT IN NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOW IN THE
PLAINS. WE HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94.

ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL SEE A QUIET AND DRY
PERIOD SETTLE IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
MILDER DAY ON SUN WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS WITH SOME FROST AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINES FOR LOCATIONS IN THE GROWING SEASON ALREADY AS TEMPS WILL
BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S. ENOUGH WIND MAY REMAIN UP SUN NIGHT TO
PREVENT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

WE ARE WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL TO POSSIBLY NEED TO ADD SOME LOW
CHCS OF PCPN IN FOR THE DAY ON MON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTH
THROUGH THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE ON MON. SOME MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT IN ALSO WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW IN
NATURE...SO WE ARE THINKING THAT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER RIGHT
NOW FOR THE ERN SECTION OF THE CWFA IS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE UNEVENTFUL WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARDS HIGHER HEIGHTS AND EVEN RIDGING BY NEXT
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM FROM AROUND ZERO C MONDAY
NIGHT...TO NEAR +10 C NEXT FRI/SAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
FROM AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 70 BY NEXT SATURDAY. NEXT
SUNDAY/S HIGHS COULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH BOTH THE ECWMF AND
THE GFS INDICATING +12 C AT 850MB/S.

HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN ALL FORECAST PERIODS EXCEPT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ECWMF STILL BRINGS IN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE...70-80PCT IN THE
1000-700MB LAYER. ONLY HAVE A 20PCT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WED
AND WED NIGHT AT THIS POINT. WE WILL WATCH TRENDS WITH THIS WEAK
SYSTEM AND NUDGE PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ACCORDINGLY.
OVERALL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE LONG
TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OR FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE TAF SITES TODAY. CEILINGS OF 4000-7000FT AT DAYBREAK SHOULD
LIFT TO 8000-10000FT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SCATTER AND CLEAR
THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 8-15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BECOMING
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUBSIDING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL HAVE
BREEZY CONDITIONS HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST A NOTCH BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH MON. WINDS
SHOULD TEND TO DROP OFF TOWARD THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 251557
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
A COOL AND NICE DAY TO THE AREA.

THE FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. SOME
CLOUDS MAY ROTATE IN FROM THE NE ON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY JUST EAST OF THE STATE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEN
COME ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR
AVERAGE...AND POTENTIALLY ABOVE AVERAGE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON LIMITED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY HOLLAND TO JACKSON. LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
IDEA.

THE CLOUD FCST IS A BIT TRICKY NORTH OF I-96 AS LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGE SHOWS SOME THINNING TAKING PLACE IN THE MID CLOUD DECK. WILL
HAVE SKIES BECOMING PTLY TO MSTLY SUNNY UP NORTH BUT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-96. WARMEST HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WEST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND NORTH OF I-96 WHERE
READINGS MAY APPROACH LATER TODAY 60 DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
CLEARING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DEALING WITH THE RAIN
CHCS DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM TRYING TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

THE TREND IN THE LATEST DATA ALL POINTS TOWARD ALMOST ALL
OF THE RAIN MISSING THE CWFA AFTER THE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE AREA ON THE WRN
FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR MAINE HAS TRENDED QUICKER/STRONGER AND
IS DEFLECTING THE PLAINS LOW FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE LIMIT IN NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOW IN THE
PLAINS. WE HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94.

ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL SEE A QUIET AND DRY
PERIOD SETTLE IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
MILDER DAY ON SUN WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS WITH SOME FROST AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINES FOR LOCATIONS IN THE GROWING SEASON ALREADY AS TEMPS WILL
BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S. ENOUGH WIND MAY REMAIN UP SUN NIGHT TO
PREVENT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

WE ARE WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL TO POSSIBLY NEED TO ADD SOME LOW
CHCS OF PCPN IN FOR THE DAY ON MON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTH
THROUGH THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE ON MON. SOME MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT IN ALSO WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW IN
NATURE...SO WE ARE THINKING THAT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER RIGHT
NOW FOR THE ERN SECTION OF THE CWFA IS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE UNEVENTFUL WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARDS HIGHER HEIGHTS AND EVEN RIDGING BY NEXT
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM FROM AROUND ZERO C MONDAY
NIGHT...TO NEAR +10 C NEXT FRI/SAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
FROM AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 70 BY NEXT SATURDAY. NEXT
SUNDAY/S HIGHS COULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH BOTH THE ECWMF AND
THE GFS INDICATING +12 C AT 850MB/S.

HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN ALL FORECAST PERIODS EXCEPT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ECWMF STILL BRINGS IN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE...70-80PCT IN THE
1000-700MB LAYER. ONLY HAVE A 20PCT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WED
AND WED NIGHT AT THIS POINT. WE WILL WATCH TRENDS WITH THIS WEAK
SYSTEM AND NUDGE PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ACCORDINGLY.
OVERALL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE LONG
TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OR FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE TAF SITES TODAY. CEILINGS OF 4000-7000FT AT DAYBREAK SHOULD
LIFT TO 8000-10000FT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SCATTER AND CLEAR
THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 8-15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BECOMING
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUBSIDING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL HAVE
BREEZY CONDITIONS HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST A NOTCH BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH MON. WINDS
SHOULD TEND TO DROP OFF TOWARD THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ






000
FXUS63 KGRR 251546
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1146 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
A COOL AND NICE DAY TO THE AREA.

THE FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. SOME
CLOUDS MAY ROTATE IN FROM THE NE ON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY JUST EAST OF THE STATE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEN
COME ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR
AVERAGE...AND POTENTIALLY ABOVE AVERAGE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON LIMITED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY HOLLAND TO JACKSON. LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
IDEA.

THE CLOUD FCST IS A BIT TRICKY NORTH OF I-96 AS LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGE SHOWS SOME THINNING TAKING PLACE IN THE MID CLOUD DECK. WILL
HAVE SKIES BECOMING PTLY TO MSTLY SUNNY UP NORTH BUT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-96. WARMEST HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WEST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND NORTH OF I-96 WHERE
READINGS MAY APPROACH LATER TODAY 60 DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
CLEARING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DEALING WITH THE RAIN
CHCS DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM TRYING TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

THE TREND IN THE LATEST DATA ALL POINTS TOWARD ALMOST ALL
OF THE RAIN MISSING THE CWFA AFTER THE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE AREA ON THE WRN
FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR MAINE HAS TRENDED QUICKER/STRONGER AND
IS DEFLECTING THE PLAINS LOW FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE LIMIT IN NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOW IN THE
PLAINS. WE HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94.

ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL SEE A QUIET AND DRY
PERIOD SETTLE IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
MILDER DAY ON SUN WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS WITH SOME FROST AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINES FOR LOCATIONS IN THE GROWING SEASON ALREADY AS TEMPS WILL
BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S. ENOUGH WIND MAY REMAIN UP SUN NIGHT TO
PREVENT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

WE ARE WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL TO POSSIBLY NEED TO ADD SOME LOW
CHCS OF PCPN IN FOR THE DAY ON MON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTH
THROUGH THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE ON MON. SOME MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT IN ALSO WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW IN
NATURE...SO WE ARE THINKING THAT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER RIGHT
NOW FOR THE ERN SECTION OF THE CWFA IS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE UNEVENTFUL WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARDS HIGHER HEIGHTS AND EVEN RIDGING BY NEXT
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM FROM AROUND ZERO C MONDAY
NIGHT...TO NEAR +10 C NEXT FRI/SAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
FROM AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 70 BY NEXT SATURDAY. NEXT
SUNDAY/S HIGHS COULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH BOTH THE ECWMF AND
THE GFS INDICATING +12 C AT 850MB/S.

HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN ALL FORECAST PERIODS EXCEPT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ECWMF STILL BRINGS IN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE...70-80PCT IN THE
1000-700MB LAYER. ONLY HAVE A 20PCT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WED
AND WED NIGHT AT THIS POINT. WE WILL WATCH TRENDS WITH THIS WEAK
SYSTEM AND NUDGE PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ACCORDINGLY.
OVERALL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE LONG
TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OR FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE TAF SITES TODAY. CEILINGS OF 4000-7000FT AT DAYBREAK SHOULD
LIFT TO 8000-10000FT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SCATTER AND CLEAR
THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 8-15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BECOMING
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUBSIDING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL HAVE
BREEZY CONDITIONS HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST A NOTCH BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH MON. WINDS
SHOULD TEND TO DROP OFF TOWARD THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 251546
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1146 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
A COOL AND NICE DAY TO THE AREA.

THE FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. SOME
CLOUDS MAY ROTATE IN FROM THE NE ON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY JUST EAST OF THE STATE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEN
COME ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR
AVERAGE...AND POTENTIALLY ABOVE AVERAGE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON LIMITED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY HOLLAND TO JACKSON. LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
IDEA.

THE CLOUD FCST IS A BIT TRICKY NORTH OF I-96 AS LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGE SHOWS SOME THINNING TAKING PLACE IN THE MID CLOUD DECK. WILL
HAVE SKIES BECOMING PTLY TO MSTLY SUNNY UP NORTH BUT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-96. WARMEST HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WEST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND NORTH OF I-96 WHERE
READINGS MAY APPROACH LATER TODAY 60 DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
CLEARING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DEALING WITH THE RAIN
CHCS DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM TRYING TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

THE TREND IN THE LATEST DATA ALL POINTS TOWARD ALMOST ALL
OF THE RAIN MISSING THE CWFA AFTER THE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE AREA ON THE WRN
FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR MAINE HAS TRENDED QUICKER/STRONGER AND
IS DEFLECTING THE PLAINS LOW FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE LIMIT IN NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOW IN THE
PLAINS. WE HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94.

ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL SEE A QUIET AND DRY
PERIOD SETTLE IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
MILDER DAY ON SUN WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS WITH SOME FROST AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINES FOR LOCATIONS IN THE GROWING SEASON ALREADY AS TEMPS WILL
BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S. ENOUGH WIND MAY REMAIN UP SUN NIGHT TO
PREVENT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

WE ARE WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL TO POSSIBLY NEED TO ADD SOME LOW
CHCS OF PCPN IN FOR THE DAY ON MON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTH
THROUGH THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE ON MON. SOME MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT IN ALSO WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW IN
NATURE...SO WE ARE THINKING THAT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER RIGHT
NOW FOR THE ERN SECTION OF THE CWFA IS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE UNEVENTFUL WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARDS HIGHER HEIGHTS AND EVEN RIDGING BY NEXT
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM FROM AROUND ZERO C MONDAY
NIGHT...TO NEAR +10 C NEXT FRI/SAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
FROM AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 70 BY NEXT SATURDAY. NEXT
SUNDAY/S HIGHS COULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH BOTH THE ECWMF AND
THE GFS INDICATING +12 C AT 850MB/S.

HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN ALL FORECAST PERIODS EXCEPT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ECWMF STILL BRINGS IN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE...70-80PCT IN THE
1000-700MB LAYER. ONLY HAVE A 20PCT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WED
AND WED NIGHT AT THIS POINT. WE WILL WATCH TRENDS WITH THIS WEAK
SYSTEM AND NUDGE PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ACCORDINGLY.
OVERALL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE LONG
TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OR FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE TAF SITES TODAY. CEILINGS OF 4000-7000FT AT DAYBREAK SHOULD
LIFT TO 8000-10000FT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SCATTER AND CLEAR
THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 8-15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BECOMING
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUBSIDING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL HAVE
BREEZY CONDITIONS HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST A NOTCH BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH MON. WINDS
SHOULD TEND TO DROP OFF TOWARD THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ








000
FXUS63 KGRR 251154
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
754 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
A COOL AND NICE DAY TO THE AREA.

THE FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. SOME
CLOUDS MAY ROTATE IN FROM THE NE ON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY JUST EAST OF THE STATE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEN
COME ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR
AVERAGE...AND POTENTIALLY ABOVE AVERAGE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DEALING WITH THE RAIN
CHCS DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM TRYING TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

THE TREND IN THE LATEST DATA ALL POINTS TOWARD ALMOST ALL
OF THE RAIN MISSING THE CWFA AFTER THE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE AREA ON THE WRN
FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR MAINE HAS TRENDED QUICKER/STRONGER AND
IS DEFLECTING THE PLAINS LOW FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE LIMIT IN NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOW IN THE
PLAINS. WE HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94.

ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL SEE A QUIET AND DRY
PERIOD SETTLE IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
MILDER DAY ON SUN WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS WITH SOME FROST AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINES FOR LOCATIONS IN THE GROWING SEASON ALREADY AS TEMPS WILL
BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S. ENOUGH WIND MAY REMAIN UP SUN NIGHT TO
PREVENT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

WE ARE WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL TO POSSIBLY NEED TO ADD SOME LOW
CHCS OF PCPN IN FOR THE DAY ON MON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTH
THROUGH THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE ON MON. SOME MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT IN ALSO WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW IN
NATURE...SO WE ARE THINKING THAT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER RIGHT
NOW FOR THE ERN SECTION OF THE CWFA IS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE UNEVENTFUL WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARDS HIGHER HEIGHTS AND EVEN RIDGING BY NEXT
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM FROM AROUND ZERO C MONDAY
NIGHT...TO NEAR +10 C NEXT FRI/SAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
FROM AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 70 BY NEXT SATURDAY. NEXT
SUNDAY/S HIGHS COULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH BOTH THE ECWMF AND
THE GFS INDICATING +12 C AT 850MB/S.

HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN ALL FORECAST PERIODS EXCEPT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ECWMF STILL BRINGS IN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE...70-80PCT IN THE
1000-700MB LAYER. ONLY HAVE A 20PCT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WED
AND WED NIGHT AT THIS POINT. WE WILL WATCH TRENDS WITH THIS WEAK
SYSTEM AND NUDGE PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ACCORDINGLY.
OVERALL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE LONG
TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OR FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE TAF SITES TODAY. CEILINGS OF 4000-7000FT AT DAYBREAK SHOULD
LIFT TO 8000-10000FT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SCATTER AND CLEAR
THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 8-15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BECOMING
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUBSIDING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL HAVE
BREEZY CONDITIONS HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST A NOTCH BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH MON. WINDS
SHOULD TEND TO DROP OFF TOWARD THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 251154
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
754 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
A COOL AND NICE DAY TO THE AREA.

THE FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. SOME
CLOUDS MAY ROTATE IN FROM THE NE ON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY JUST EAST OF THE STATE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEN
COME ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR
AVERAGE...AND POTENTIALLY ABOVE AVERAGE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DEALING WITH THE RAIN
CHCS DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM TRYING TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

THE TREND IN THE LATEST DATA ALL POINTS TOWARD ALMOST ALL
OF THE RAIN MISSING THE CWFA AFTER THE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE AREA ON THE WRN
FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR MAINE HAS TRENDED QUICKER/STRONGER AND
IS DEFLECTING THE PLAINS LOW FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE LIMIT IN NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOW IN THE
PLAINS. WE HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94.

ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL SEE A QUIET AND DRY
PERIOD SETTLE IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
MILDER DAY ON SUN WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS WITH SOME FROST AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINES FOR LOCATIONS IN THE GROWING SEASON ALREADY AS TEMPS WILL
BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S. ENOUGH WIND MAY REMAIN UP SUN NIGHT TO
PREVENT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

WE ARE WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL TO POSSIBLY NEED TO ADD SOME LOW
CHCS OF PCPN IN FOR THE DAY ON MON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTH
THROUGH THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE ON MON. SOME MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT IN ALSO WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW IN
NATURE...SO WE ARE THINKING THAT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER RIGHT
NOW FOR THE ERN SECTION OF THE CWFA IS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE UNEVENTFUL WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARDS HIGHER HEIGHTS AND EVEN RIDGING BY NEXT
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM FROM AROUND ZERO C MONDAY
NIGHT...TO NEAR +10 C NEXT FRI/SAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
FROM AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 70 BY NEXT SATURDAY. NEXT
SUNDAY/S HIGHS COULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH BOTH THE ECWMF AND
THE GFS INDICATING +12 C AT 850MB/S.

HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN ALL FORECAST PERIODS EXCEPT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ECWMF STILL BRINGS IN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE...70-80PCT IN THE
1000-700MB LAYER. ONLY HAVE A 20PCT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WED
AND WED NIGHT AT THIS POINT. WE WILL WATCH TRENDS WITH THIS WEAK
SYSTEM AND NUDGE PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ACCORDINGLY.
OVERALL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE LONG
TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OR FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE TAF SITES TODAY. CEILINGS OF 4000-7000FT AT DAYBREAK SHOULD
LIFT TO 8000-10000FT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SCATTER AND CLEAR
THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 8-15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BECOMING
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUBSIDING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL HAVE
BREEZY CONDITIONS HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST A NOTCH BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH MON. WINDS
SHOULD TEND TO DROP OFF TOWARD THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ








000
FXUS63 KGRR 251154
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
754 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
A COOL AND NICE DAY TO THE AREA.

THE FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. SOME
CLOUDS MAY ROTATE IN FROM THE NE ON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY JUST EAST OF THE STATE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEN
COME ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR
AVERAGE...AND POTENTIALLY ABOVE AVERAGE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DEALING WITH THE RAIN
CHCS DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM TRYING TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

THE TREND IN THE LATEST DATA ALL POINTS TOWARD ALMOST ALL
OF THE RAIN MISSING THE CWFA AFTER THE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE AREA ON THE WRN
FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR MAINE HAS TRENDED QUICKER/STRONGER AND
IS DEFLECTING THE PLAINS LOW FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE LIMIT IN NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOW IN THE
PLAINS. WE HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94.

ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL SEE A QUIET AND DRY
PERIOD SETTLE IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
MILDER DAY ON SUN WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS WITH SOME FROST AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINES FOR LOCATIONS IN THE GROWING SEASON ALREADY AS TEMPS WILL
BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S. ENOUGH WIND MAY REMAIN UP SUN NIGHT TO
PREVENT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

WE ARE WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL TO POSSIBLY NEED TO ADD SOME LOW
CHCS OF PCPN IN FOR THE DAY ON MON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTH
THROUGH THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE ON MON. SOME MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT IN ALSO WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW IN
NATURE...SO WE ARE THINKING THAT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER RIGHT
NOW FOR THE ERN SECTION OF THE CWFA IS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE UNEVENTFUL WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARDS HIGHER HEIGHTS AND EVEN RIDGING BY NEXT
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM FROM AROUND ZERO C MONDAY
NIGHT...TO NEAR +10 C NEXT FRI/SAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
FROM AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 70 BY NEXT SATURDAY. NEXT
SUNDAY/S HIGHS COULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH BOTH THE ECWMF AND
THE GFS INDICATING +12 C AT 850MB/S.

HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN ALL FORECAST PERIODS EXCEPT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ECWMF STILL BRINGS IN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE...70-80PCT IN THE
1000-700MB LAYER. ONLY HAVE A 20PCT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WED
AND WED NIGHT AT THIS POINT. WE WILL WATCH TRENDS WITH THIS WEAK
SYSTEM AND NUDGE PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ACCORDINGLY.
OVERALL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE LONG
TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OR FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE TAF SITES TODAY. CEILINGS OF 4000-7000FT AT DAYBREAK SHOULD
LIFT TO 8000-10000FT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SCATTER AND CLEAR
THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 8-15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BECOMING
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUBSIDING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL HAVE
BREEZY CONDITIONS HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST A NOTCH BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH MON. WINDS
SHOULD TEND TO DROP OFF TOWARD THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 250728
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
A COOL AND NICE DAY TO THE AREA.

THE FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. SOME
CLOUDS MAY ROTATE IN FROM THE NE ON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY JUST EAST OF THE STATE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEN
COME ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR
AVERAGE...AND POTENTIALLY ABOVE AVERAGE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DEALING WITH THE RAIN
CHCS DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM TRYING TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

THE TREND IN THE LATEST DATA ALL POINTS TOWARD ALMOST ALL
OF THE RAIN MISSING THE CWFA AFTER THE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE AREA ON THE WRN
FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR MAINE HAS TRENDED QUICKER/STRONGER AND
IS DEFLECTING THE PLAINS LOW FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE LIMIT IN NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOW IN THE
PLAINS. WE HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94.

ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL SEE A QUIET AND DRY
PERIOD SETTLE IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
MILDER DAY ON SUN WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS WITH SOME FROST AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINES FOR LOCATIONS IN THE GROWING SEASON ALREADY AS TEMPS WILL
BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S. ENOUGH WIND MAY REMAIN UP SUN NIGHT TO
PREVENT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

WE ARE WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL TO POSSIBLY NEED TO ADD SOME LOW
CHCS OF PCPN IN FOR THE DAY ON MON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTH
THROUGH THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE ON MON. SOME MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT IN ALSO WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW IN
NATURE...SO WE ARE THINKING THAT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER RIGHT
NOW FOR THE ERN SECTION OF THE CWFA IS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE UNEVENTFUL WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARDS HIGHER HEIGHTS AND EVEN RIDGING BY NEXT
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM FROM AROUND ZERO C MONDAY
NIGHT...TO NEAR +10 C NEXT FRI/SAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
FROM AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 70 BY NEXT SATURDAY. NEXT
SUNDAY/S HIGHS COULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH BOTH THE ECWMF AND
THE GFS INDICATING +12 C AT 850MB/S.

HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN ALL FORECAST PERIODS EXCEPT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ECWMF STILL BRINGS IN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE...70-80PCT IN THE
1000-700MB LAYER. ONLY HAVE A 20PCT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WED
AND WED NIGHT AT THIS POINT. WE WILL WATCH TRENDS WITH THIS WEAK
SYSTEM AND NUDGE PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ACCORDINGLY.
OVERALL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE LONG
TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OR FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE RAIN THAT IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MI WILL LARGELY LEAD
TO VFR CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR COULD DEVELOP...MAINLY
TOWARD KAZO AND POSSIBLY KBTL. AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT THE RAIN
WILL PULL AWAY...LEADING TO A PRIMARILY DRY SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED NOT TOO FAR SOUTH...ROUGHLY
TO THE MI/IN BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE SHOULD BE
MONITORED AS THEY WILL TRY TO LIFT NORTH...BUT THE DRY AIRMASS
ARRIVING FROM ONTARIO WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STORMS SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL HAVE
BREEZY CONDITIONS HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST A NOTCH BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH MON. WINDS
SHOULD TEND TO DROP OFF TOWARD THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ






000
FXUS63 KGRR 250728
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
A COOL AND NICE DAY TO THE AREA.

THE FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. SOME
CLOUDS MAY ROTATE IN FROM THE NE ON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY JUST EAST OF THE STATE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEN
COME ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR
AVERAGE...AND POTENTIALLY ABOVE AVERAGE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DEALING WITH THE RAIN
CHCS DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM TRYING TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

THE TREND IN THE LATEST DATA ALL POINTS TOWARD ALMOST ALL
OF THE RAIN MISSING THE CWFA AFTER THE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE AREA ON THE WRN
FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR MAINE HAS TRENDED QUICKER/STRONGER AND
IS DEFLECTING THE PLAINS LOW FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE LIMIT IN NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOW IN THE
PLAINS. WE HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94.

ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL SEE A QUIET AND DRY
PERIOD SETTLE IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
MILDER DAY ON SUN WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS WITH SOME FROST AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINES FOR LOCATIONS IN THE GROWING SEASON ALREADY AS TEMPS WILL
BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S. ENOUGH WIND MAY REMAIN UP SUN NIGHT TO
PREVENT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

WE ARE WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL TO POSSIBLY NEED TO ADD SOME LOW
CHCS OF PCPN IN FOR THE DAY ON MON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTH
THROUGH THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE ON MON. SOME MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT IN ALSO WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW IN
NATURE...SO WE ARE THINKING THAT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER RIGHT
NOW FOR THE ERN SECTION OF THE CWFA IS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE UNEVENTFUL WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARDS HIGHER HEIGHTS AND EVEN RIDGING BY NEXT
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM FROM AROUND ZERO C MONDAY
NIGHT...TO NEAR +10 C NEXT FRI/SAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
FROM AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 70 BY NEXT SATURDAY. NEXT
SUNDAY/S HIGHS COULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH BOTH THE ECWMF AND
THE GFS INDICATING +12 C AT 850MB/S.

HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN ALL FORECAST PERIODS EXCEPT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ECWMF STILL BRINGS IN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE...70-80PCT IN THE
1000-700MB LAYER. ONLY HAVE A 20PCT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WED
AND WED NIGHT AT THIS POINT. WE WILL WATCH TRENDS WITH THIS WEAK
SYSTEM AND NUDGE PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ACCORDINGLY.
OVERALL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE LONG
TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OR FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE RAIN THAT IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MI WILL LARGELY LEAD
TO VFR CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR COULD DEVELOP...MAINLY
TOWARD KAZO AND POSSIBLY KBTL. AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT THE RAIN
WILL PULL AWAY...LEADING TO A PRIMARILY DRY SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED NOT TOO FAR SOUTH...ROUGHLY
TO THE MI/IN BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE SHOULD BE
MONITORED AS THEY WILL TRY TO LIFT NORTH...BUT THE DRY AIRMASS
ARRIVING FROM ONTARIO WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STORMS SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL HAVE
BREEZY CONDITIONS HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST A NOTCH BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH MON. WINDS
SHOULD TEND TO DROP OFF TOWARD THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 250325
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1125 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH UPON WEST MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED MOST PLACES. THE
STEADIER RAIN WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THEN
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WE HAVE UPDATED THE FCST THIS EVENING TO FEATURE HIGHER CHCS OF
RAIN FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-96. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A
BANDED AREA OF RAIN MOVING IN ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWFA.
A LOT OF THIS IS LIKELY ALOFT WITH THE DRIER AIR INITIALLY IN
PLACE. HOWEVER IT IS INTENSE ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME OF IT WILL
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WITH SOME LIGHT...YET MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING AS WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME OF
THE RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES FROM MUSKEGON TO KALAMAZOO BY LATE EVENING.

THEN THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF LOW LOW TRACKING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REACHES THE SOUTHERN ZONES. QPF SHOULD BE A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING SATURDAY EVENING WITH SFC RIDGING
NOSING DOWN ONCE AGAIN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...ALTHOUGH THIS AIRMASS
IS NOT AS COLD AS THE LAST ONE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME FROST
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE HOLDS SWAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER QUIET WITH A SLIGHT
WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BLOCKED PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE MUCH OF SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK...GIVING US THE CHILLY WEATHER...WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN
BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  A NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE ALLOWING SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE
PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS BY TUESDAY.

HOWEVER THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN RATHER QUICKLY WITH BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY WEDNESDAY.  THIS
SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.  DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH FEEL WE WILL REMAIN DRY
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST SHOWERS.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS COMES
THROUGH...BUT THESE LOOK RATHER MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE RAIN THAT IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MI WILL LARGELY LEAD
TO VFR CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR COULD DEVELOP...MAINLY
TOWARD KAZO AND POSSIBLY KBTL. AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT THE RAIN
WILL PULL AWAY...LEADING TO A PRIMARILY DRY SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED NOT TOO FAR SOUTH...ROUGHLY
TO THE MI/IN BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE SHOULD BE
MONITORED AS THEY WILL TRY TO LIFT NORTH...BUT THE DRY AIRMASS
ARRIVING FROM ONTARIO WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STORMS SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...OSTUNO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 250325
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1125 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH UPON WEST MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED MOST PLACES. THE
STEADIER RAIN WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THEN
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WE HAVE UPDATED THE FCST THIS EVENING TO FEATURE HIGHER CHCS OF
RAIN FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-96. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A
BANDED AREA OF RAIN MOVING IN ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWFA.
A LOT OF THIS IS LIKELY ALOFT WITH THE DRIER AIR INITIALLY IN
PLACE. HOWEVER IT IS INTENSE ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME OF IT WILL
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WITH SOME LIGHT...YET MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING AS WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME OF
THE RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES FROM MUSKEGON TO KALAMAZOO BY LATE EVENING.

THEN THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF LOW LOW TRACKING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REACHES THE SOUTHERN ZONES. QPF SHOULD BE A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING SATURDAY EVENING WITH SFC RIDGING
NOSING DOWN ONCE AGAIN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...ALTHOUGH THIS AIRMASS
IS NOT AS COLD AS THE LAST ONE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME FROST
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE HOLDS SWAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER QUIET WITH A SLIGHT
WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BLOCKED PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE MUCH OF SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK...GIVING US THE CHILLY WEATHER...WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN
BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  A NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE ALLOWING SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE
PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS BY TUESDAY.

HOWEVER THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN RATHER QUICKLY WITH BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY WEDNESDAY.  THIS
SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.  DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH FEEL WE WILL REMAIN DRY
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST SHOWERS.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS COMES
THROUGH...BUT THESE LOOK RATHER MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE RAIN THAT IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MI WILL LARGELY LEAD
TO VFR CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR COULD DEVELOP...MAINLY
TOWARD KAZO AND POSSIBLY KBTL. AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT THE RAIN
WILL PULL AWAY...LEADING TO A PRIMARILY DRY SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED NOT TOO FAR SOUTH...ROUGHLY
TO THE MI/IN BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE SHOULD BE
MONITORED AS THEY WILL TRY TO LIFT NORTH...BUT THE DRY AIRMASS
ARRIVING FROM ONTARIO WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STORMS SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...OSTUNO








000
FXUS63 KGRR 250325
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1125 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH UPON WEST MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED MOST PLACES. THE
STEADIER RAIN WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THEN
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WE HAVE UPDATED THE FCST THIS EVENING TO FEATURE HIGHER CHCS OF
RAIN FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-96. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A
BANDED AREA OF RAIN MOVING IN ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWFA.
A LOT OF THIS IS LIKELY ALOFT WITH THE DRIER AIR INITIALLY IN
PLACE. HOWEVER IT IS INTENSE ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME OF IT WILL
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WITH SOME LIGHT...YET MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING AS WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME OF
THE RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES FROM MUSKEGON TO KALAMAZOO BY LATE EVENING.

THEN THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF LOW LOW TRACKING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REACHES THE SOUTHERN ZONES. QPF SHOULD BE A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING SATURDAY EVENING WITH SFC RIDGING
NOSING DOWN ONCE AGAIN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...ALTHOUGH THIS AIRMASS
IS NOT AS COLD AS THE LAST ONE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME FROST
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE HOLDS SWAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER QUIET WITH A SLIGHT
WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BLOCKED PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE MUCH OF SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK...GIVING US THE CHILLY WEATHER...WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN
BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  A NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE ALLOWING SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE
PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS BY TUESDAY.

HOWEVER THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN RATHER QUICKLY WITH BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY WEDNESDAY.  THIS
SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.  DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH FEEL WE WILL REMAIN DRY
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST SHOWERS.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS COMES
THROUGH...BUT THESE LOOK RATHER MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE RAIN THAT IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MI WILL LARGELY LEAD
TO VFR CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR COULD DEVELOP...MAINLY
TOWARD KAZO AND POSSIBLY KBTL. AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT THE RAIN
WILL PULL AWAY...LEADING TO A PRIMARILY DRY SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED NOT TOO FAR SOUTH...ROUGHLY
TO THE MI/IN BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE SHOULD BE
MONITORED AS THEY WILL TRY TO LIFT NORTH...BUT THE DRY AIRMASS
ARRIVING FROM ONTARIO WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STORMS SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...OSTUNO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 250100
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
900 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH UPON WEST MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED MOST PLACES. THE
STEADIER RAIN WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THEN
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WE HAVE UPDATED THE FCST THIS EVENING TO FEATURE HIGHER CHCS OF
RAIN FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-96. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A
BANDED AREA OF RAIN MOVING IN ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWFA.
A LOT OF THIS IS LIKELY ALOFT WITH THE DRIER AIR INITIALLY IN
PLACE. HOWEVER IT IS INTENSE ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME OF IT WILL
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WITH SOME LIGHT...YET MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING AS WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME OF
THE RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES FROM MUSKEGON TO KALAMAZOO BY LATE EVENING.

THEN THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF LOW LOW TRACKING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REACHES THE SOUTHERN ZONES. QPF SHOULD BE A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING SATURDAY EVENING WITH SFC RIDGING
NOSING DOWN ONCE AGAIN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...ALTHOUGH THIS AIRMASS
IS NOT AS COLD AS THE LAST ONE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME FROST
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE HOLDS SWAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER QUIET WITH A SLIGHT
WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BLOCKED PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE MUCH OF SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK...GIVING US THE CHILLY WEATHER...WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN
BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  A NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE ALLOWING SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE
PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS BY TUESDAY.

HOWEVER THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN RATHER QUICKLY WITH BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY WEDNESDAY.  THIS
SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.  DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH FEEL WE WILL REMAIN DRY
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST SHOWERS.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS COMES
THROUGH...BUT THESE LOOK RATHER MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR WEATHER EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE MOVING IN OVERNIGHT...BUT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...OSTUNO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 250100
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
900 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH UPON WEST MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED MOST PLACES. THE
STEADIER RAIN WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THEN
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WE HAVE UPDATED THE FCST THIS EVENING TO FEATURE HIGHER CHCS OF
RAIN FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-96. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A
BANDED AREA OF RAIN MOVING IN ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWFA.
A LOT OF THIS IS LIKELY ALOFT WITH THE DRIER AIR INITIALLY IN
PLACE. HOWEVER IT IS INTENSE ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME OF IT WILL
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WITH SOME LIGHT...YET MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING AS WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME OF
THE RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES FROM MUSKEGON TO KALAMAZOO BY LATE EVENING.

THEN THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF LOW LOW TRACKING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REACHES THE SOUTHERN ZONES. QPF SHOULD BE A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING SATURDAY EVENING WITH SFC RIDGING
NOSING DOWN ONCE AGAIN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...ALTHOUGH THIS AIRMASS
IS NOT AS COLD AS THE LAST ONE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME FROST
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE HOLDS SWAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER QUIET WITH A SLIGHT
WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BLOCKED PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE MUCH OF SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK...GIVING US THE CHILLY WEATHER...WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN
BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  A NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE ALLOWING SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE
PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS BY TUESDAY.

HOWEVER THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN RATHER QUICKLY WITH BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY WEDNESDAY.  THIS
SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.  DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH FEEL WE WILL REMAIN DRY
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST SHOWERS.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS COMES
THROUGH...BUT THESE LOOK RATHER MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR WEATHER EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE MOVING IN OVERNIGHT...BUT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...OSTUNO








000
FXUS63 KGRR 242247
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
647 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH UPON WEST MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED MOST PLACES. THE
STEADIER RAIN WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THEN
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING AS WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME OF
THE RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES FROM MUSKEGON TO KALAMAZOO BY LATE EVENING.

THEN THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF LOW LOW TRACKING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REACHES THE SOUTHERN ZONES. QPF SHOULD BE A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING SATURDAY EVENING WITH SFC RIDGING
NOSING DOWN ONCE AGAIN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...ALTHOUGH THIS AIRMASS
IS NOT AS COLD AS THE LAST ONE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME FROST
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE HOLDS SWAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER QUIET WITH A SLIGHT
WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BLOCKED PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE MUCH OF SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK...GIVING US THE CHILLY WEATHER...WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN
BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  A NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE ALLOWING SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE
PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS BY TUESDAY.

HOWEVER THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN RATHER QUICKLY WITH BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY WEDNESDAY.  THIS
SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.  DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH FEEL WE WILL REMAIN DRY
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST SHOWERS.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS COMES
THROUGH...BUT THESE LOOK RATHER MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR WEATHER EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE MOVING IN OVERNIGHT...BUT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...OSTUNO









000
FXUS63 KGRR 242247
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
647 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH UPON WEST MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED MOST PLACES. THE
STEADIER RAIN WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THEN
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING AS WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME OF
THE RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES FROM MUSKEGON TO KALAMAZOO BY LATE EVENING.

THEN THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF LOW LOW TRACKING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REACHES THE SOUTHERN ZONES. QPF SHOULD BE A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING SATURDAY EVENING WITH SFC RIDGING
NOSING DOWN ONCE AGAIN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...ALTHOUGH THIS AIRMASS
IS NOT AS COLD AS THE LAST ONE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME FROST
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE HOLDS SWAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER QUIET WITH A SLIGHT
WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BLOCKED PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE MUCH OF SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK...GIVING US THE CHILLY WEATHER...WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN
BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  A NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE ALLOWING SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE
PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS BY TUESDAY.

HOWEVER THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN RATHER QUICKLY WITH BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY WEDNESDAY.  THIS
SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.  DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH FEEL WE WILL REMAIN DRY
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST SHOWERS.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS COMES
THROUGH...BUT THESE LOOK RATHER MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR WEATHER EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE MOVING IN OVERNIGHT...BUT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...OSTUNO








000
FXUS63 KGRR 242247
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
647 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH UPON WEST MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED MOST PLACES. THE
STEADIER RAIN WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THEN
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING AS WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME OF
THE RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES FROM MUSKEGON TO KALAMAZOO BY LATE EVENING.

THEN THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF LOW LOW TRACKING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REACHES THE SOUTHERN ZONES. QPF SHOULD BE A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING SATURDAY EVENING WITH SFC RIDGING
NOSING DOWN ONCE AGAIN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...ALTHOUGH THIS AIRMASS
IS NOT AS COLD AS THE LAST ONE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME FROST
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE HOLDS SWAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER QUIET WITH A SLIGHT
WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BLOCKED PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE MUCH OF SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK...GIVING US THE CHILLY WEATHER...WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN
BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  A NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE ALLOWING SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE
PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS BY TUESDAY.

HOWEVER THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN RATHER QUICKLY WITH BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY WEDNESDAY.  THIS
SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.  DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH FEEL WE WILL REMAIN DRY
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST SHOWERS.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS COMES
THROUGH...BUT THESE LOOK RATHER MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR WEATHER EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE MOVING IN OVERNIGHT...BUT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...OSTUNO








000
FXUS63 KGRR 241927
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH UPON WEST MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED MOST PLACES. THE
STEADIER RAIN WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THEN
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING AS WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME OF
THE RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES FROM MUSKEGON TO KALAMAZOO BY LATE EVENING.

THEN THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF LOW LOW TRACKING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REACHES THE SOUTHERN ZONES. QPF SHOULD BE A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING SATURDAY EVENING WITH SFC RIDGING
NOSING DOWN ONCE AGAIN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...ALTHOUGH THIS AIRMASS
IS NOT AS COLD AS THE LAST ONE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME FROST
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE HOLDS SWAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER QUIET WITH A SLIGHT
WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BLOCKED PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE MUCH OF SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK...GIVING US THE CHILLY WEATHER...WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN
BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  A NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE ALLOWING SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE
PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS BY TUESDAY.

HOWEVER THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN RATHER QUICKLY WITH BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY WEDNESDAY.  THIS
SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.  DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH FEEL WE WILL REMAIN DRY
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST SHOWERS.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS COMES
THROUGH...BUT THESE LOOK RATHER MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING
AFTER 04Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH CEILINGS
AND VISBYS REMAINING LARGELY VFR. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...OSTUNO






000
FXUS63 KGRR 241927
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH UPON WEST MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED MOST PLACES. THE
STEADIER RAIN WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THEN
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING AS WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME OF
THE RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES FROM MUSKEGON TO KALAMAZOO BY LATE EVENING.

THEN THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF LOW LOW TRACKING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REACHES THE SOUTHERN ZONES. QPF SHOULD BE A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING SATURDAY EVENING WITH SFC RIDGING
NOSING DOWN ONCE AGAIN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...ALTHOUGH THIS AIRMASS
IS NOT AS COLD AS THE LAST ONE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME FROST
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE HOLDS SWAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER QUIET WITH A SLIGHT
WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BLOCKED PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE MUCH OF SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK...GIVING US THE CHILLY WEATHER...WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN
BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  A NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE ALLOWING SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE
PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS BY TUESDAY.

HOWEVER THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN RATHER QUICKLY WITH BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY WEDNESDAY.  THIS
SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.  DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH FEEL WE WILL REMAIN DRY
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST SHOWERS.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS COMES
THROUGH...BUT THESE LOOK RATHER MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING
AFTER 04Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH CEILINGS
AND VISBYS REMAINING LARGELY VFR. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 241927
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH UPON WEST MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED MOST PLACES. THE
STEADIER RAIN WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THEN
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING AS WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME OF
THE RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES FROM MUSKEGON TO KALAMAZOO BY LATE EVENING.

THEN THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF LOW LOW TRACKING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REACHES THE SOUTHERN ZONES. QPF SHOULD BE A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING SATURDAY EVENING WITH SFC RIDGING
NOSING DOWN ONCE AGAIN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...ALTHOUGH THIS AIRMASS
IS NOT AS COLD AS THE LAST ONE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME FROST
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE HOLDS SWAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER QUIET WITH A SLIGHT
WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BLOCKED PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE MUCH OF SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK...GIVING US THE CHILLY WEATHER...WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN
BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  A NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE ALLOWING SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE
PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS BY TUESDAY.

HOWEVER THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN RATHER QUICKLY WITH BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY WEDNESDAY.  THIS
SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.  DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH FEEL WE WILL REMAIN DRY
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST SHOWERS.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS COMES
THROUGH...BUT THESE LOOK RATHER MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING
AFTER 04Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH CEILINGS
AND VISBYS REMAINING LARGELY VFR. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 241725
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
125 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AREA WILL SEE QUITE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL TRY AND BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL GENERALLY STAY
SOUTH OF I-96...WITH MOST RAIN OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.

THE AREA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

OUR ONE AND ONLY WEATHER FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME RAIN FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR MAINLY THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWFA. THE FCST THIS MORNING HAS TIGHTENED THE
GRADIENT OF RAIN CHCS UP A BIT...RESULTING IN DROPPING RAIN CHCS UP
NORTH.

NO WORRY ABOUT RAIN CHCS TODAY. WE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER
RIDGING TO OUR WEST TODAY...WITH SFC RIDGING OVERHEAD. WE WILL START
OUT WITH QUITE A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...SO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ONLY BRING SOME THIN CLOUDS TO THE AREA.

SOME RAIN CHCS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SW CORNER OF THE CWFA. RAIN OCCURRING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
TRY MOVING INTO THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP OUT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING LOW FROM THE ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS STATES. MOST OF THE
MODELS DO NOT QUITE BRING THE GOOD MOISTURE RETURN/TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. RAIN THAT TRIES TO MOVE IN WILL ENCOUNTER A DRY AIR
MASS...SO MUCH OF IT WILL EVAPORATE.

THERE WILL BE A SECOND PUSH OF RAIN THAT TRIES TO COME IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS OCCURS AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS E/NE OUT OF THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW WOULD NORMALLY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA AND
GIVE THE AREA A NICE SOAKING. HOWEVER AS IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA...A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND SHUNT
THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING RAIN UP INTO THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWFA BEFORE IT WOULD STOP
AND THEN PUSH SE. A GOOD FEED OF DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE E/NE
WILL ALSO EAT AWAY AT LIGHT RAIN ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN
SHIELD...AND CREATE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE RAIN.

THE RAIN WILL THEN PULL ENTIRELY AWAY FROM THE AREA SAT EVENING AS
THE NRN TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. NRLY FLOW WILL THEN DOMINATE WITH
COOL AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SUN. MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING ON SUN...OTHERWISE SOME CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE
NEEDED WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNEVENTFUL. GFS AND THE ECMWF
OPERATIONAL 00Z RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS IN A DEEP UPPER LOW
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WHERE THE ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH MUCH LESS TROUGHING. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH
THE ECMWF.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM...AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THE BULK OF THE TIME. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
LIMITED MOISTURE OVER ANY SIZABLE DEPTH. FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN
THE DRY FORECAST GIVEN THAT FACT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WOULD BE THE TWO FORECAST PERIODS THAT I COULD SEE POTENTIALLY
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT RAIN...GIVEN A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE DIVING OUR
DIRECTION IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. ECMWF 1000-700MB RH SHOWS
MOISTURE DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST VIA THE ECMWF TO
BE IN THE 0 TO +6C RANGE MUCH OF THE TIME WHICH SHOULD YIELD
SEASONABLE READINGS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW 60S COMMON NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING
AFTER 04Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH CEILINGS
AND VSBYS REMAINING LARGELY VFR. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WE ANTICIPATE THAT NO MARINE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL THEN START TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY...AND THEN BEHIND IT ON SUNDAY. WE BELIEVE THAT
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES UP TO 4 FT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 241725
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
125 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AREA WILL SEE QUITE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL TRY AND BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL GENERALLY STAY
SOUTH OF I-96...WITH MOST RAIN OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.

THE AREA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

OUR ONE AND ONLY WEATHER FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME RAIN FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR MAINLY THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWFA. THE FCST THIS MORNING HAS TIGHTENED THE
GRADIENT OF RAIN CHCS UP A BIT...RESULTING IN DROPPING RAIN CHCS UP
NORTH.

NO WORRY ABOUT RAIN CHCS TODAY. WE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER
RIDGING TO OUR WEST TODAY...WITH SFC RIDGING OVERHEAD. WE WILL START
OUT WITH QUITE A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...SO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ONLY BRING SOME THIN CLOUDS TO THE AREA.

SOME RAIN CHCS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SW CORNER OF THE CWFA. RAIN OCCURRING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
TRY MOVING INTO THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP OUT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING LOW FROM THE ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS STATES. MOST OF THE
MODELS DO NOT QUITE BRING THE GOOD MOISTURE RETURN/TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. RAIN THAT TRIES TO MOVE IN WILL ENCOUNTER A DRY AIR
MASS...SO MUCH OF IT WILL EVAPORATE.

THERE WILL BE A SECOND PUSH OF RAIN THAT TRIES TO COME IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS OCCURS AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS E/NE OUT OF THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW WOULD NORMALLY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA AND
GIVE THE AREA A NICE SOAKING. HOWEVER AS IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA...A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND SHUNT
THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING RAIN UP INTO THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWFA BEFORE IT WOULD STOP
AND THEN PUSH SE. A GOOD FEED OF DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE E/NE
WILL ALSO EAT AWAY AT LIGHT RAIN ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN
SHIELD...AND CREATE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE RAIN.

THE RAIN WILL THEN PULL ENTIRELY AWAY FROM THE AREA SAT EVENING AS
THE NRN TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. NRLY FLOW WILL THEN DOMINATE WITH
COOL AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SUN. MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING ON SUN...OTHERWISE SOME CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE
NEEDED WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNEVENTFUL. GFS AND THE ECMWF
OPERATIONAL 00Z RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS IN A DEEP UPPER LOW
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WHERE THE ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH MUCH LESS TROUGHING. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH
THE ECMWF.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM...AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THE BULK OF THE TIME. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
LIMITED MOISTURE OVER ANY SIZABLE DEPTH. FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN
THE DRY FORECAST GIVEN THAT FACT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WOULD BE THE TWO FORECAST PERIODS THAT I COULD SEE POTENTIALLY
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT RAIN...GIVEN A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE DIVING OUR
DIRECTION IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. ECMWF 1000-700MB RH SHOWS
MOISTURE DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST VIA THE ECMWF TO
BE IN THE 0 TO +6C RANGE MUCH OF THE TIME WHICH SHOULD YIELD
SEASONABLE READINGS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW 60S COMMON NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING
AFTER 04Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH CEILINGS
AND VSBYS REMAINING LARGELY VFR. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WE ANTICIPATE THAT NO MARINE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL THEN START TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY...AND THEN BEHIND IT ON SUNDAY. WE BELIEVE THAT
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES UP TO 4 FT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ








000
FXUS63 KGRR 241725
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
125 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AREA WILL SEE QUITE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL TRY AND BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL GENERALLY STAY
SOUTH OF I-96...WITH MOST RAIN OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.

THE AREA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

OUR ONE AND ONLY WEATHER FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME RAIN FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR MAINLY THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWFA. THE FCST THIS MORNING HAS TIGHTENED THE
GRADIENT OF RAIN CHCS UP A BIT...RESULTING IN DROPPING RAIN CHCS UP
NORTH.

NO WORRY ABOUT RAIN CHCS TODAY. WE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER
RIDGING TO OUR WEST TODAY...WITH SFC RIDGING OVERHEAD. WE WILL START
OUT WITH QUITE A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...SO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ONLY BRING SOME THIN CLOUDS TO THE AREA.

SOME RAIN CHCS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SW CORNER OF THE CWFA. RAIN OCCURRING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
TRY MOVING INTO THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP OUT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING LOW FROM THE ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS STATES. MOST OF THE
MODELS DO NOT QUITE BRING THE GOOD MOISTURE RETURN/TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. RAIN THAT TRIES TO MOVE IN WILL ENCOUNTER A DRY AIR
MASS...SO MUCH OF IT WILL EVAPORATE.

THERE WILL BE A SECOND PUSH OF RAIN THAT TRIES TO COME IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS OCCURS AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS E/NE OUT OF THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW WOULD NORMALLY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA AND
GIVE THE AREA A NICE SOAKING. HOWEVER AS IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA...A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND SHUNT
THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING RAIN UP INTO THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWFA BEFORE IT WOULD STOP
AND THEN PUSH SE. A GOOD FEED OF DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE E/NE
WILL ALSO EAT AWAY AT LIGHT RAIN ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN
SHIELD...AND CREATE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE RAIN.

THE RAIN WILL THEN PULL ENTIRELY AWAY FROM THE AREA SAT EVENING AS
THE NRN TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. NRLY FLOW WILL THEN DOMINATE WITH
COOL AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SUN. MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING ON SUN...OTHERWISE SOME CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE
NEEDED WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNEVENTFUL. GFS AND THE ECMWF
OPERATIONAL 00Z RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS IN A DEEP UPPER LOW
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WHERE THE ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH MUCH LESS TROUGHING. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH
THE ECMWF.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM...AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THE BULK OF THE TIME. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
LIMITED MOISTURE OVER ANY SIZABLE DEPTH. FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN
THE DRY FORECAST GIVEN THAT FACT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WOULD BE THE TWO FORECAST PERIODS THAT I COULD SEE POTENTIALLY
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT RAIN...GIVEN A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE DIVING OUR
DIRECTION IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. ECMWF 1000-700MB RH SHOWS
MOISTURE DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST VIA THE ECMWF TO
BE IN THE 0 TO +6C RANGE MUCH OF THE TIME WHICH SHOULD YIELD
SEASONABLE READINGS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW 60S COMMON NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING
AFTER 04Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH CEILINGS
AND VSBYS REMAINING LARGELY VFR. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WE ANTICIPATE THAT NO MARINE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL THEN START TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY...AND THEN BEHIND IT ON SUNDAY. WE BELIEVE THAT
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES UP TO 4 FT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 241427
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AREA WILL SEE QUITE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL TRY AND BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL GENERALLY STAY
SOUTH OF I-96...WITH MOST RAIN OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.

THE AREA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

OUR ONE AND ONLY WEATHER FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME RAIN FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR MAINLY THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWFA. THE FCST THIS MORNING HAS TIGHTENED THE
GRADIENT OF RAIN CHCS UP A BIT...RESULTING IN DROPPING RAIN CHCS UP
NORTH.

NO WORRY ABOUT RAIN CHCS TODAY. WE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER
RIDGING TO OUR WEST TODAY...WITH SFC RIDGING OVERHEAD. WE WILL START
OUT WITH QUITE A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...SO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ONLY BRING SOME THIN CLOUDS TO THE AREA.

SOME RAIN CHCS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SW CORNER OF THE CWFA. RAIN OCCURRING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
TRY MOVING INTO THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP OUT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING LOW FROM THE ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS STATES. MOST OF THE
MODELS DO NOT QUITE BRING THE GOOD MOISTURE RETURN/TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. RAIN THAT TRIES TO MOVE IN WILL ENCOUNTER A DRY AIR
MASS...SO MUCH OF IT WILL EVAPORATE.

THERE WILL BE A SECOND PUSH OF RAIN THAT TRIES TO COME IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS OCCURS AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS E/NE OUT OF THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW WOULD NORMALLY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA AND
GIVE THE AREA A NICE SOAKING. HOWEVER AS IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA...A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND SHUNT
THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING RAIN UP INTO THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWFA BEFORE IT WOULD STOP
AND THEN PUSH SE. A GOOD FEED OF DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE E/NE
WILL ALSO EAT AWAY AT LIGHT RAIN ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN
SHIELD...AND CREATE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE RAIN.

THE RAIN WILL THEN PULL ENTIRELY AWAY FROM THE AREA SAT EVENING AS
THE NRN TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. NRLY FLOW WILL THEN DOMINATE WITH
COOL AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SUN. MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING ON SUN...OTHERWISE SOME CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE
NEEDED WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNEVENTFUL. GFS AND THE ECMWF
OPERATIONAL 00Z RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS IN A DEEP UPPER LOW
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WHERE THE ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH MUCH LESS TROUGHING. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH
THE ECMWF.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM...AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THE BULK OF THE TIME. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
LIMITED MOISTURE OVER ANY SIZABLE DEPTH. FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN
THE DRY FORECAST GIVEN THAT FACT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WOULD BE THE TWO FORECAST PERIODS THAT I COULD SEE POTENTIALLY
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT RAIN...GIVEN A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE DIVING OUR
DIRECTION IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. ECWMF 1000-700MB RH SHOWS
MOISTURE DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST VIA THE ECMWF TO
BE IN THE 0 TO +6C RANGE MUCH OF THE TIME WHICH SHOULD YIELD
SEASONABLE READINGS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW 60S COMMON NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID CLOUDS WITH BASES
ABOVE 10000FT WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...LOWERING TO AROUND 8000FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TONIGHT...CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER SLIGHTLY INTO THE 4000-7000FT
RANGE.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE LATE TONIGHT...AFFECTING KAZO AND KBTL. AT THIS POINT
USED VCSH WORDING AS TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WE ANTICIPATE THAT NO MARINE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL THEN START TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY...AND THEN BEHIND IT ON SUNDAY. WE BELIEVE THAT
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES UP TO 4 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ






000
FXUS63 KGRR 241427
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AREA WILL SEE QUITE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL TRY AND BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL GENERALLY STAY
SOUTH OF I-96...WITH MOST RAIN OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.

THE AREA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

OUR ONE AND ONLY WEATHER FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME RAIN FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR MAINLY THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWFA. THE FCST THIS MORNING HAS TIGHTENED THE
GRADIENT OF RAIN CHCS UP A BIT...RESULTING IN DROPPING RAIN CHCS UP
NORTH.

NO WORRY ABOUT RAIN CHCS TODAY. WE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER
RIDGING TO OUR WEST TODAY...WITH SFC RIDGING OVERHEAD. WE WILL START
OUT WITH QUITE A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...SO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ONLY BRING SOME THIN CLOUDS TO THE AREA.

SOME RAIN CHCS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SW CORNER OF THE CWFA. RAIN OCCURRING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
TRY MOVING INTO THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP OUT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING LOW FROM THE ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS STATES. MOST OF THE
MODELS DO NOT QUITE BRING THE GOOD MOISTURE RETURN/TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. RAIN THAT TRIES TO MOVE IN WILL ENCOUNTER A DRY AIR
MASS...SO MUCH OF IT WILL EVAPORATE.

THERE WILL BE A SECOND PUSH OF RAIN THAT TRIES TO COME IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS OCCURS AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS E/NE OUT OF THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW WOULD NORMALLY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA AND
GIVE THE AREA A NICE SOAKING. HOWEVER AS IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA...A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND SHUNT
THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING RAIN UP INTO THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWFA BEFORE IT WOULD STOP
AND THEN PUSH SE. A GOOD FEED OF DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE E/NE
WILL ALSO EAT AWAY AT LIGHT RAIN ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN
SHIELD...AND CREATE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE RAIN.

THE RAIN WILL THEN PULL ENTIRELY AWAY FROM THE AREA SAT EVENING AS
THE NRN TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. NRLY FLOW WILL THEN DOMINATE WITH
COOL AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SUN. MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING ON SUN...OTHERWISE SOME CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE
NEEDED WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNEVENTFUL. GFS AND THE ECMWF
OPERATIONAL 00Z RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS IN A DEEP UPPER LOW
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WHERE THE ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH MUCH LESS TROUGHING. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH
THE ECMWF.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM...AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THE BULK OF THE TIME. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
LIMITED MOISTURE OVER ANY SIZABLE DEPTH. FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN
THE DRY FORECAST GIVEN THAT FACT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WOULD BE THE TWO FORECAST PERIODS THAT I COULD SEE POTENTIALLY
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT RAIN...GIVEN A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE DIVING OUR
DIRECTION IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. ECWMF 1000-700MB RH SHOWS
MOISTURE DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST VIA THE ECMWF TO
BE IN THE 0 TO +6C RANGE MUCH OF THE TIME WHICH SHOULD YIELD
SEASONABLE READINGS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW 60S COMMON NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID CLOUDS WITH BASES
ABOVE 10000FT WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...LOWERING TO AROUND 8000FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TONIGHT...CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER SLIGHTLY INTO THE 4000-7000FT
RANGE.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE LATE TONIGHT...AFFECTING KAZO AND KBTL. AT THIS POINT
USED VCSH WORDING AS TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WE ANTICIPATE THAT NO MARINE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL THEN START TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY...AND THEN BEHIND IT ON SUNDAY. WE BELIEVE THAT
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES UP TO 4 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 241427
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AREA WILL SEE QUITE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL TRY AND BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL GENERALLY STAY
SOUTH OF I-96...WITH MOST RAIN OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.

THE AREA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

OUR ONE AND ONLY WEATHER FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME RAIN FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR MAINLY THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWFA. THE FCST THIS MORNING HAS TIGHTENED THE
GRADIENT OF RAIN CHCS UP A BIT...RESULTING IN DROPPING RAIN CHCS UP
NORTH.

NO WORRY ABOUT RAIN CHCS TODAY. WE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER
RIDGING TO OUR WEST TODAY...WITH SFC RIDGING OVERHEAD. WE WILL START
OUT WITH QUITE A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...SO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ONLY BRING SOME THIN CLOUDS TO THE AREA.

SOME RAIN CHCS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SW CORNER OF THE CWFA. RAIN OCCURRING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
TRY MOVING INTO THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP OUT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING LOW FROM THE ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS STATES. MOST OF THE
MODELS DO NOT QUITE BRING THE GOOD MOISTURE RETURN/TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. RAIN THAT TRIES TO MOVE IN WILL ENCOUNTER A DRY AIR
MASS...SO MUCH OF IT WILL EVAPORATE.

THERE WILL BE A SECOND PUSH OF RAIN THAT TRIES TO COME IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS OCCURS AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS E/NE OUT OF THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW WOULD NORMALLY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA AND
GIVE THE AREA A NICE SOAKING. HOWEVER AS IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA...A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND SHUNT
THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING RAIN UP INTO THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWFA BEFORE IT WOULD STOP
AND THEN PUSH SE. A GOOD FEED OF DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE E/NE
WILL ALSO EAT AWAY AT LIGHT RAIN ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN
SHIELD...AND CREATE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE RAIN.

THE RAIN WILL THEN PULL ENTIRELY AWAY FROM THE AREA SAT EVENING AS
THE NRN TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. NRLY FLOW WILL THEN DOMINATE WITH
COOL AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SUN. MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING ON SUN...OTHERWISE SOME CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE
NEEDED WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNEVENTFUL. GFS AND THE ECMWF
OPERATIONAL 00Z RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS IN A DEEP UPPER LOW
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WHERE THE ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH MUCH LESS TROUGHING. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH
THE ECMWF.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM...AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THE BULK OF THE TIME. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
LIMITED MOISTURE OVER ANY SIZABLE DEPTH. FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN
THE DRY FORECAST GIVEN THAT FACT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WOULD BE THE TWO FORECAST PERIODS THAT I COULD SEE POTENTIALLY
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT RAIN...GIVEN A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE DIVING OUR
DIRECTION IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. ECWMF 1000-700MB RH SHOWS
MOISTURE DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST VIA THE ECMWF TO
BE IN THE 0 TO +6C RANGE MUCH OF THE TIME WHICH SHOULD YIELD
SEASONABLE READINGS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW 60S COMMON NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID CLOUDS WITH BASES
ABOVE 10000FT WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...LOWERING TO AROUND 8000FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TONIGHT...CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER SLIGHTLY INTO THE 4000-7000FT
RANGE.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE LATE TONIGHT...AFFECTING KAZO AND KBTL. AT THIS POINT
USED VCSH WORDING AS TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WE ANTICIPATE THAT NO MARINE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL THEN START TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY...AND THEN BEHIND IT ON SUNDAY. WE BELIEVE THAT
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES UP TO 4 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ






000
FXUS63 KGRR 241427
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AREA WILL SEE QUITE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL TRY AND BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL GENERALLY STAY
SOUTH OF I-96...WITH MOST RAIN OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.

THE AREA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

OUR ONE AND ONLY WEATHER FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME RAIN FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR MAINLY THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWFA. THE FCST THIS MORNING HAS TIGHTENED THE
GRADIENT OF RAIN CHCS UP A BIT...RESULTING IN DROPPING RAIN CHCS UP
NORTH.

NO WORRY ABOUT RAIN CHCS TODAY. WE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER
RIDGING TO OUR WEST TODAY...WITH SFC RIDGING OVERHEAD. WE WILL START
OUT WITH QUITE A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...SO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ONLY BRING SOME THIN CLOUDS TO THE AREA.

SOME RAIN CHCS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SW CORNER OF THE CWFA. RAIN OCCURRING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
TRY MOVING INTO THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP OUT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING LOW FROM THE ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS STATES. MOST OF THE
MODELS DO NOT QUITE BRING THE GOOD MOISTURE RETURN/TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. RAIN THAT TRIES TO MOVE IN WILL ENCOUNTER A DRY AIR
MASS...SO MUCH OF IT WILL EVAPORATE.

THERE WILL BE A SECOND PUSH OF RAIN THAT TRIES TO COME IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS OCCURS AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS E/NE OUT OF THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW WOULD NORMALLY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA AND
GIVE THE AREA A NICE SOAKING. HOWEVER AS IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA...A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND SHUNT
THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING RAIN UP INTO THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWFA BEFORE IT WOULD STOP
AND THEN PUSH SE. A GOOD FEED OF DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE E/NE
WILL ALSO EAT AWAY AT LIGHT RAIN ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN
SHIELD...AND CREATE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE RAIN.

THE RAIN WILL THEN PULL ENTIRELY AWAY FROM THE AREA SAT EVENING AS
THE NRN TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. NRLY FLOW WILL THEN DOMINATE WITH
COOL AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SUN. MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING ON SUN...OTHERWISE SOME CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE
NEEDED WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNEVENTFUL. GFS AND THE ECMWF
OPERATIONAL 00Z RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS IN A DEEP UPPER LOW
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WHERE THE ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH MUCH LESS TROUGHING. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH
THE ECMWF.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM...AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THE BULK OF THE TIME. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
LIMITED MOISTURE OVER ANY SIZABLE DEPTH. FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN
THE DRY FORECAST GIVEN THAT FACT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WOULD BE THE TWO FORECAST PERIODS THAT I COULD SEE POTENTIALLY
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT RAIN...GIVEN A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE DIVING OUR
DIRECTION IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. ECWMF 1000-700MB RH SHOWS
MOISTURE DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST VIA THE ECMWF TO
BE IN THE 0 TO +6C RANGE MUCH OF THE TIME WHICH SHOULD YIELD
SEASONABLE READINGS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW 60S COMMON NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID CLOUDS WITH BASES
ABOVE 10000FT WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...LOWERING TO AROUND 8000FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TONIGHT...CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER SLIGHTLY INTO THE 4000-7000FT
RANGE.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE LATE TONIGHT...AFFECTING KAZO AND KBTL. AT THIS POINT
USED VCSH WORDING AS TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WE ANTICIPATE THAT NO MARINE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL THEN START TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY...AND THEN BEHIND IT ON SUNDAY. WE BELIEVE THAT
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES UP TO 4 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 241122
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
722 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AREA WILL SEE QUITE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL TRY AND BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL GENERALLY STAY
SOUTH OF I-96...WITH MOST RAIN OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.

THE AREA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

OUR ONE AND ONLY WEATHER FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME RAIN FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR MAINLY THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWFA. THE FCST THIS MORNING HAS TIGHTENED THE
GRADIENT OF RAIN CHCS UP A BIT...RESULTING IN DROPPING RAIN CHCS UP
NORTH.

NO WORRY ABOUT RAIN CHCS TODAY. WE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER
RIDGING TO OUR WEST TODAY...WITH SFC RIDGING OVERHEAD. WE WILL START
OUT WITH QUITE A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...SO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ONLY BRING SOME THIN CLOUDS TO THE AREA.

SOME RAIN CHCS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SW CORNER OF THE CWFA. RAIN OCCURRING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
TRY MOVING INTO THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP OUT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING LOW FROM THE ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS STATES. MOST OF THE
MODELS DO NOT QUITE BRING THE GOOD MOISTURE RETURN/TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. RAIN THAT TRIES TO MOVE IN WILL ENCOUNTER A DRY AIR
MASS...SO MUCH OF IT WILL EVAPORATE.

THERE WILL BE A SECOND PUSH OF RAIN THAT TRIES TO COME IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS OCCURS AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS E/NE OUT OF THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW WOULD NORMALLY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA AND
GIVE THE AREA A NICE SOAKING. HOWEVER AS IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA...A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND SHUNT
THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING RAIN UP INTO THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWFA BEFORE IT WOULD STOP
AND THEN PUSH SE. A GOOD FEED OF DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE E/NE
WILL ALSO EAT AWAY AT LIGHT RAIN ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN
SHIELD...AND CREATE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE RAIN.

THE RAIN WILL THEN PULL ENTIRELY AWAY FROM THE AREA SAT EVENING AS
THE NRN TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. NRLY FLOW WILL THEN DOMINATE WITH
COOL AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SUN. MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING ON SUN...OTHERWISE SOME CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE
NEEDED WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNEVENTFUL. GFS AND THE ECMWF
OPERATIONAL 00Z RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS IN A DEEP UPPER LOW
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WHERE THE ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH MUCH LESS TROUGHING. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH
THE ECMWF.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM...AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THE BULK OF THE TIME. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
LIMITED MOISTURE OVER ANY SIZABLE DEPTH. FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN
THE DRY FORECAST GIVEN THAT FACT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WOULD BE THE TWO FORECAST PERIODS THAT I COULD SEE POTENTIALLY
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT RAIN...GIVEN A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE DIVING OUR
DIRECTION IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. ECWMF 1000-700MB RH SHOWS
MOISTURE DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST VIA THE ECMWF TO
BE IN THE 0 TO +6C RANGE MUCH OF THE TIME WHICH SHOULD YIELD
SEASONABLE READINGS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW 60S COMMON NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID CLOUDS WITH BASES
ABOVE 10000FT WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...LOWERING TO AROUND 8000FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TONIGHT...CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER SLIGHTLY INTO THE 4000-7000FT
RANGE.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE LATE TONIGHT...AFFECTING KAZO AND KBTL. AT THIS POINT
USED VCSH WORDING AS TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WE ANTICIPATE THAT NO MARINE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL THEN START TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY...AND THEN BEHIND IT ON SUNDAY. WE BELIEVE THAT
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES UP TO 4 FT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CORRECTED AT 1258 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RIVER LEVELS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY FALLING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING BY OFF TO OUR SOUTH. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. BUT DRY
WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DUE TO SATURDAY RAINFALL...BUT RIVER FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ050-056>058-
     064>066-071>073.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...NJJ








000
FXUS63 KGRR 241122
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
722 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AREA WILL SEE QUITE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL TRY AND BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL GENERALLY STAY
SOUTH OF I-96...WITH MOST RAIN OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.

THE AREA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

OUR ONE AND ONLY WEATHER FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME RAIN FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR MAINLY THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWFA. THE FCST THIS MORNING HAS TIGHTENED THE
GRADIENT OF RAIN CHCS UP A BIT...RESULTING IN DROPPING RAIN CHCS UP
NORTH.

NO WORRY ABOUT RAIN CHCS TODAY. WE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER
RIDGING TO OUR WEST TODAY...WITH SFC RIDGING OVERHEAD. WE WILL START
OUT WITH QUITE A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...SO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ONLY BRING SOME THIN CLOUDS TO THE AREA.

SOME RAIN CHCS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SW CORNER OF THE CWFA. RAIN OCCURRING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
TRY MOVING INTO THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP OUT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING LOW FROM THE ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS STATES. MOST OF THE
MODELS DO NOT QUITE BRING THE GOOD MOISTURE RETURN/TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. RAIN THAT TRIES TO MOVE IN WILL ENCOUNTER A DRY AIR
MASS...SO MUCH OF IT WILL EVAPORATE.

THERE WILL BE A SECOND PUSH OF RAIN THAT TRIES TO COME IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS OCCURS AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS E/NE OUT OF THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW WOULD NORMALLY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA AND
GIVE THE AREA A NICE SOAKING. HOWEVER AS IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA...A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND SHUNT
THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING RAIN UP INTO THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWFA BEFORE IT WOULD STOP
AND THEN PUSH SE. A GOOD FEED OF DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE E/NE
WILL ALSO EAT AWAY AT LIGHT RAIN ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN
SHIELD...AND CREATE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE RAIN.

THE RAIN WILL THEN PULL ENTIRELY AWAY FROM THE AREA SAT EVENING AS
THE NRN TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. NRLY FLOW WILL THEN DOMINATE WITH
COOL AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SUN. MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING ON SUN...OTHERWISE SOME CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE
NEEDED WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNEVENTFUL. GFS AND THE ECMWF
OPERATIONAL 00Z RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS IN A DEEP UPPER LOW
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WHERE THE ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH MUCH LESS TROUGHING. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH
THE ECMWF.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM...AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THE BULK OF THE TIME. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
LIMITED MOISTURE OVER ANY SIZABLE DEPTH. FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN
THE DRY FORECAST GIVEN THAT FACT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WOULD BE THE TWO FORECAST PERIODS THAT I COULD SEE POTENTIALLY
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT RAIN...GIVEN A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE DIVING OUR
DIRECTION IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. ECWMF 1000-700MB RH SHOWS
MOISTURE DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST VIA THE ECMWF TO
BE IN THE 0 TO +6C RANGE MUCH OF THE TIME WHICH SHOULD YIELD
SEASONABLE READINGS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW 60S COMMON NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID CLOUDS WITH BASES
ABOVE 10000FT WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...LOWERING TO AROUND 8000FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TONIGHT...CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER SLIGHTLY INTO THE 4000-7000FT
RANGE.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE LATE TONIGHT...AFFECTING KAZO AND KBTL. AT THIS POINT
USED VCSH WORDING AS TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WE ANTICIPATE THAT NO MARINE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL THEN START TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY...AND THEN BEHIND IT ON SUNDAY. WE BELIEVE THAT
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES UP TO 4 FT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CORRECTED AT 1258 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RIVER LEVELS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY FALLING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING BY OFF TO OUR SOUTH. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. BUT DRY
WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DUE TO SATURDAY RAINFALL...BUT RIVER FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ050-056>058-
     064>066-071>073.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 241122
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
722 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AREA WILL SEE QUITE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL TRY AND BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL GENERALLY STAY
SOUTH OF I-96...WITH MOST RAIN OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.

THE AREA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

OUR ONE AND ONLY WEATHER FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME RAIN FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR MAINLY THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWFA. THE FCST THIS MORNING HAS TIGHTENED THE
GRADIENT OF RAIN CHCS UP A BIT...RESULTING IN DROPPING RAIN CHCS UP
NORTH.

NO WORRY ABOUT RAIN CHCS TODAY. WE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER
RIDGING TO OUR WEST TODAY...WITH SFC RIDGING OVERHEAD. WE WILL START
OUT WITH QUITE A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...SO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ONLY BRING SOME THIN CLOUDS TO THE AREA.

SOME RAIN CHCS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SW CORNER OF THE CWFA. RAIN OCCURRING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
TRY MOVING INTO THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP OUT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING LOW FROM THE ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS STATES. MOST OF THE
MODELS DO NOT QUITE BRING THE GOOD MOISTURE RETURN/TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. RAIN THAT TRIES TO MOVE IN WILL ENCOUNTER A DRY AIR
MASS...SO MUCH OF IT WILL EVAPORATE.

THERE WILL BE A SECOND PUSH OF RAIN THAT TRIES TO COME IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS OCCURS AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS E/NE OUT OF THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW WOULD NORMALLY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA AND
GIVE THE AREA A NICE SOAKING. HOWEVER AS IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA...A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND SHUNT
THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING RAIN UP INTO THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWFA BEFORE IT WOULD STOP
AND THEN PUSH SE. A GOOD FEED OF DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE E/NE
WILL ALSO EAT AWAY AT LIGHT RAIN ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN
SHIELD...AND CREATE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE RAIN.

THE RAIN WILL THEN PULL ENTIRELY AWAY FROM THE AREA SAT EVENING AS
THE NRN TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. NRLY FLOW WILL THEN DOMINATE WITH
COOL AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SUN. MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING ON SUN...OTHERWISE SOME CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE
NEEDED WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNEVENTFUL. GFS AND THE ECMWF
OPERATIONAL 00Z RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS IN A DEEP UPPER LOW
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WHERE THE ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH MUCH LESS TROUGHING. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH
THE ECMWF.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM...AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THE BULK OF THE TIME. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
LIMITED MOISTURE OVER ANY SIZABLE DEPTH. FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN
THE DRY FORECAST GIVEN THAT FACT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WOULD BE THE TWO FORECAST PERIODS THAT I COULD SEE POTENTIALLY
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT RAIN...GIVEN A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE DIVING OUR
DIRECTION IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. ECWMF 1000-700MB RH SHOWS
MOISTURE DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST VIA THE ECMWF TO
BE IN THE 0 TO +6C RANGE MUCH OF THE TIME WHICH SHOULD YIELD
SEASONABLE READINGS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW 60S COMMON NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID CLOUDS WITH BASES
ABOVE 10000FT WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...LOWERING TO AROUND 8000FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TONIGHT...CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER SLIGHTLY INTO THE 4000-7000FT
RANGE.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE LATE TONIGHT...AFFECTING KAZO AND KBTL. AT THIS POINT
USED VCSH WORDING AS TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WE ANTICIPATE THAT NO MARINE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL THEN START TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY...AND THEN BEHIND IT ON SUNDAY. WE BELIEVE THAT
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES UP TO 4 FT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CORRECTED AT 1258 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RIVER LEVELS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY FALLING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING BY OFF TO OUR SOUTH. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. BUT DRY
WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DUE TO SATURDAY RAINFALL...BUT RIVER FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ050-056>058-
     064>066-071>073.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...NJJ








000
FXUS63 KGRR 241122
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
722 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AREA WILL SEE QUITE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL TRY AND BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL GENERALLY STAY
SOUTH OF I-96...WITH MOST RAIN OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.

THE AREA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

OUR ONE AND ONLY WEATHER FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME RAIN FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR MAINLY THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWFA. THE FCST THIS MORNING HAS TIGHTENED THE
GRADIENT OF RAIN CHCS UP A BIT...RESULTING IN DROPPING RAIN CHCS UP
NORTH.

NO WORRY ABOUT RAIN CHCS TODAY. WE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER
RIDGING TO OUR WEST TODAY...WITH SFC RIDGING OVERHEAD. WE WILL START
OUT WITH QUITE A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...SO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ONLY BRING SOME THIN CLOUDS TO THE AREA.

SOME RAIN CHCS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SW CORNER OF THE CWFA. RAIN OCCURRING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
TRY MOVING INTO THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP OUT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING LOW FROM THE ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS STATES. MOST OF THE
MODELS DO NOT QUITE BRING THE GOOD MOISTURE RETURN/TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. RAIN THAT TRIES TO MOVE IN WILL ENCOUNTER A DRY AIR
MASS...SO MUCH OF IT WILL EVAPORATE.

THERE WILL BE A SECOND PUSH OF RAIN THAT TRIES TO COME IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS OCCURS AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS E/NE OUT OF THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW WOULD NORMALLY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA AND
GIVE THE AREA A NICE SOAKING. HOWEVER AS IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA...A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND SHUNT
THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING RAIN UP INTO THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWFA BEFORE IT WOULD STOP
AND THEN PUSH SE. A GOOD FEED OF DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE E/NE
WILL ALSO EAT AWAY AT LIGHT RAIN ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN
SHIELD...AND CREATE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE RAIN.

THE RAIN WILL THEN PULL ENTIRELY AWAY FROM THE AREA SAT EVENING AS
THE NRN TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. NRLY FLOW WILL THEN DOMINATE WITH
COOL AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SUN. MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING ON SUN...OTHERWISE SOME CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE
NEEDED WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNEVENTFUL. GFS AND THE ECMWF
OPERATIONAL 00Z RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS IN A DEEP UPPER LOW
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WHERE THE ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH MUCH LESS TROUGHING. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH
THE ECMWF.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM...AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THE BULK OF THE TIME. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
LIMITED MOISTURE OVER ANY SIZABLE DEPTH. FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN
THE DRY FORECAST GIVEN THAT FACT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WOULD BE THE TWO FORECAST PERIODS THAT I COULD SEE POTENTIALLY
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT RAIN...GIVEN A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE DIVING OUR
DIRECTION IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. ECWMF 1000-700MB RH SHOWS
MOISTURE DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST VIA THE ECMWF TO
BE IN THE 0 TO +6C RANGE MUCH OF THE TIME WHICH SHOULD YIELD
SEASONABLE READINGS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW 60S COMMON NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID CLOUDS WITH BASES
ABOVE 10000FT WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...LOWERING TO AROUND 8000FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TONIGHT...CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER SLIGHTLY INTO THE 4000-7000FT
RANGE.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE LATE TONIGHT...AFFECTING KAZO AND KBTL. AT THIS POINT
USED VCSH WORDING AS TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WE ANTICIPATE THAT NO MARINE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL THEN START TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY...AND THEN BEHIND IT ON SUNDAY. WE BELIEVE THAT
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES UP TO 4 FT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CORRECTED AT 1258 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RIVER LEVELS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY FALLING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING BY OFF TO OUR SOUTH. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. BUT DRY
WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DUE TO SATURDAY RAINFALL...BUT RIVER FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ050-056>058-
     064>066-071>073.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 240729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AREA WILL SEE QUITE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL TRY AND BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL GENERALLY STAY
SOUTH OF I-96...WITH MOST RAIN OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.

THE AREA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

OUR ONE AND ONLY WEATHER FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME RAIN FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR MAINLY THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWFA. THE FCST THIS MORNING HAS TIGHTENED THE
GRADIENT OF RAIN CHCS UP A BIT...RESULTING IN DROPPING RAIN CHCS UP
NORTH.

NO WORRY ABOUT RAIN CHCS TODAY. WE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER
RIDGING TO OUR WEST TODAY...WITH SFC RIDGING OVERHEAD. WE WILL START
OUT WITH QUITE A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...SO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ONLY BRING SOME THIN CLOUDS TO THE AREA.

SOME RAIN CHCS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SW CORNER OF THE CWFA. RAIN OCCURRING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
TRY MOVING INTO THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP OUT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING LOW FROM THE ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS STATES. MOST OF THE
MODELS DO NOT QUITE BRING THE GOOD MOISTURE RETURN/TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. RAIN THAT TRIES TO MOVE IN WILL ENCOUNTER A DRY AIR
MASS...SO MUCH OF IT WILL EVAPORATE.

THERE WILL BE A SECOND PUSH OF RAIN THAT TRIES TO COME IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS OCCURS AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS E/NE OUT OF THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW WOULD NORMALLY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA AND
GIVE THE AREA A NICE SOAKING. HOWEVER AS IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA...A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND SHUNT
THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING RAIN UP INTO THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWFA BEFORE IT WOULD STOP
AND THEN PUSH SE. A GOOD FEED OF DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE E/NE
WILL ALSO EAT AWAY AT LIGHT RAIN ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN
SHIELD...AND CREATE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE RAIN.

THE RAIN WILL THEN PULL ENTIRELY AWAY FROM THE AREA SAT EVENING AS
THE NRN TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. NRLY FLOW WILL THEN DOMINATE WITH
COOL AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SUN. MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING ON SUN...OTHERWISE SOME CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE
NEEDED WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNEVENTFUL. GFS AND THE ECMWF
OPERATIONAL 00Z RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS IN A DEEP UPPER LOW
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WHERE THE ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH MUCH LESS TROUGHING. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH
THE ECMWF.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM...AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THE BULK OF THE TIME. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
LIMITED MOISTURE OVER ANY SIZEABLE DEPTH. FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN
THE DRY FORECAST GIVEN THAT FACT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WOULD BE THE TWO FORECAST PERIODS THAT I COULD SEE POTENTIALLY
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT RAIN...GIVEN A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE DIVING OUR
DIRECTION IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. ECWMF 1000-700MB RH SHOWS
MOISTURE DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST VIA THE ECMWF TO
BE IN THE 0 TO +6C RANGE MUCH OF THE TIME WHICH SHOULD YIELD
SEASONABLE READINGS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW 60S COMMON NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AN
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVER
LAND. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WE ANTICIPATE THAT NO MARINE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL THEN START TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY...AND THEN BEHIND IT ON SUNDAY. WE BELIEVE THAT
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES UP TO 4 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CORRECTED AT 1258 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RIVER LEVELS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOSTLY FALLING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING BY OFF TO OUR SOUTH. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. BUT DRY
WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DUE TO SATURDAY RAINFALL...BUT RIVER FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ050-056>058-
     064>066-071>073.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...NJJ










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