Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KGRR 011150
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
750 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WE/LL SEE A DECREASING PRECIPITATION TREND
TODAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 50S. MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS TODAY.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER IL/IN MOVING EAST. MUCH
OF THE PCPN NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CWA.
WE/VE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE DAY BUT ADDED THE MENTION OF
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AS BUFKIT OMEGA PROFILES SHOWED SOME LIFT IN
THE CLOUD LAYER.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CWA AND WE/LL SEE SHOWERS MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-96. THIS SHORT WAVE IS A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM AND WILL BE
GONE BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND PROVIDE FOR QUITE A BIT OF
SUNSHINE.

TODAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT... WITH THE BULK OF
SHOWERS OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A PLEASANT DAY WITH UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE REGION AND -3C AIR AT H8 POURING IN ON THE HEELS OF
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN
THE 50S WITH SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE UNDER THE UPR LOW
AFTER THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVE
EAST.

THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH TROUGHING PERSISTING
ALOFT. SOME POP UP SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF GRR... CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW/COLD POOL WHICH WILL BE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE FINALLY TURN THE CORNER TOWARD WARMER WEATHER BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGE AND WARMING ALOFT SPREAD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST... LEADING TO TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LATEST 00Z MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS 70-
75 NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FT
AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE/MIST REDUCING SFC VSBYS TO 1-3 MILES. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CIG HEIGHTS AND VSBYS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINING IFR TO MVFR.

CONDITIONS LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR AGAIN TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
SLUG OF RAIN IMPACTS SRN LWR MI. LIFR MOST LIKELY AT AZO/BTL/JXN.

MKG MAY HAVE HIGHER CIGS/VSBYS THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS TODAY DUE
TO DOWNSLOPING NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW... AND TONIGHT SINCE THEY
ARE ONLY CLIPPED BY THE NRN FRINGE OF THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES
TODAY...HIGHEST OUT TOWARD THE 5 MILE POINT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED...
WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04





000
FXUS63 KGRR 010729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WE/LL SEE A DECREASING PRECIPITATION TREND
TODAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 50S. MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS TODAY.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER IL/IN MOVING EAST. MUCH
OF THE PCPN NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CWA.
WE/VE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE DAY BUT ADDED THE MENTION OF
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AS BUFKIT OMEGA PROFILES SHOWED SOME LIFT IN
THE CLOUD LAYER.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CWA AND WE/LL SEE SHOWERS MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-96. THIS SHORT WAVE IS A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM AND WILL BE
GONE BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND PROVIDE FOR QUITE A BIT OF
SUNSHINE.

TODAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT... WITH THE BULK OF
SHOWERS OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A PLEASANT DAY WITH UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE REGION AND -3C AIR AT H8 POURING IN ON THE HEELS OF
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN
THE 50S WITH SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE UNDER THE UPR LOW
AFTER THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVE
EAST.

THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH TROUGHING PERSISTING
ALOFT. SOME POP UP SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF GRR... CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW/COLD POOL WHICH WILL BE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE FINALLY TURN THE CORNER TOWARD WARMER WEATHER BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGE AND WARMING ALOFT SPREAD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST... LEADING TO TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LATEST 00Z MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS 70-
75 NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CEILINGS AND VISBYS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD NORTH BECOMING WIDESPREAD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE EAST AOB 10 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES
TODAY...HIGHEST OUT TOWARD THE 5 MILE POINT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED...
WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04





000
FXUS63 KGRR 010353
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1153 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIEST FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR INTERSTATE 94. ALL
AREAS WILL SEE RAIN HOWEVER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OFF TO OUR SOUTH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TONIGHT/S RAIN.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DAMP WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 40S THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY TOP OUT
IN THE 50S AGAIN. WE WILL PUSH TO NEAR 60 ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CENTERED ON CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD TURN PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN.

AS FOR THE CHANCES FOR RAIN...HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT
AS AN 850MB WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A
ZONE OF CONVERGENCE IS SEEN ALONG I-94 AT 850MB/S WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME DECENT RAIN RATES FOR A TIME. AN 850MB LLJ INTERSECTS THE
WARM FRONT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE STATE.
THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS OVERNIGHT WITH A GENERAL LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE (I-96).

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION OVERALL...BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS. HAVE 40-50 PCT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOWS. RAIN SHOULD RAMP
UP AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SWEEP BY THE AREA. RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A BIT QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM.  I ADDED POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE RUNNING INTO SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.  WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE A GRAY AND CHILLY DAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND MAINLY DRY.  H8 TEMPS REMAIN
IN THE 0C TO +5C RANGE SO NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...ALTHOUGH SATURDAY
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE AIR MASS SLOWLY MODERATES. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOW BUT WE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL TYPE
SHOWERS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
THURSDAY WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CEILINGS AND VISBYS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD NORTH BECOMING WIDESPREAD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE EAST AOB 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONSIDERED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW FOR
WIND...AS EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP A BIT. A FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT IS IN PLACE BETWEEN A LOW JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND A 1030MB
HIGH OVER ONTARIO. THINKING WE WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA THOUGH
IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE. GIVEN AN OFF SHORE WIND...WAVES WILL NOT BE
AN ISSUE...NEARLY FLAT AT THE SHORE WITH 2-3 FOOTERS NEAR THE 5 MILE
MARK. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED...
WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 010353
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1153 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIEST FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR INTERSTATE 94. ALL
AREAS WILL SEE RAIN HOWEVER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OFF TO OUR SOUTH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TONIGHT/S RAIN.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DAMP WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 40S THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY TOP OUT
IN THE 50S AGAIN. WE WILL PUSH TO NEAR 60 ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CENTERED ON CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD TURN PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN.

AS FOR THE CHANCES FOR RAIN...HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT
AS AN 850MB WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A
ZONE OF CONVERGENCE IS SEEN ALONG I-94 AT 850MB/S WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME DECENT RAIN RATES FOR A TIME. AN 850MB LLJ INTERSECTS THE
WARM FRONT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE STATE.
THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS OVERNIGHT WITH A GENERAL LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE (I-96).

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION OVERALL...BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS. HAVE 40-50 PCT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOWS. RAIN SHOULD RAMP
UP AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SWEEP BY THE AREA. RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A BIT QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM.  I ADDED POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE RUNNING INTO SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.  WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE A GRAY AND CHILLY DAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND MAINLY DRY.  H8 TEMPS REMAIN
IN THE 0C TO +5C RANGE SO NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...ALTHOUGH SATURDAY
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE AIR MASS SLOWLY MODERATES. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOW BUT WE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL TYPE
SHOWERS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
THURSDAY WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CEILINGS AND VISBYS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD NORTH BECOMING WIDESPREAD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE EAST AOB 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONSIDERED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW FOR
WIND...AS EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP A BIT. A FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT IS IN PLACE BETWEEN A LOW JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND A 1030MB
HIGH OVER ONTARIO. THINKING WE WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA THOUGH
IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE. GIVEN AN OFF SHORE WIND...WAVES WILL NOT BE
AN ISSUE...NEARLY FLAT AT THE SHORE WITH 2-3 FOOTERS NEAR THE 5 MILE
MARK. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED...
WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 302347
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
747 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIEST FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR INTERSTATE 94. ALL
AREAS WILL SEE RAIN HOWEVER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OFF TO OUR SOUTH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TONIGHT/S RAIN.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DAMP WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 40S THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY TOP OUT
IN THE 50S AGAIN. WE WILL PUSH TO NEAR 60 ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CENTERED ON CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD TURN PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN.

AS FOR THE CHANCES FOR RAIN...HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT
AS AN 850MB WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A
ZONE OF CONVERGENCE IS SEEN ALONG I-94 AT 850MB/S WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME DECENT RAIN RATES FOR A TIME. AN 850MB LLJ INTERSECTS THE
WARM FRONT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE STATE.
THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS OVERNIGHT WITH A GENERAL LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE (I-96).

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION OVERALL...BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS. HAVE 40-50 PCT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOWS. RAIN SHOULD RAMP
UP AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SWEEP BY THE AREA. RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A BIT QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM.  I ADDED POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE RUNNING INTO SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.  WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE A GRAY AND CHILLY DAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND MAINLY DRY.  H8 TEMPS REMAIN
IN THE 0C TO +5C RANGE SO NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...ALTHOUGH SATURDAY
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE AIR MASS SLOWLY MODERATES. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOW BUT WE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL TYPE
SHOWERS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
THURSDAY WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

AS RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING...CEILINGS AND VISBYS
WILL LOWER AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTH FOLLOWED BY
IFR. EXPECT IFR TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE EAST AOB 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONSIDERED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW FOR
WIND...AS EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP A BIT. A FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT IS IN PLACE BETWEEN A LOW JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND A 1030MB
HIGH OVER ONTARIO. THINKING WE WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA THOUGH
IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE. GIVEN AN OFF SHORE WIND...WAVES WILL NOT BE
AN ISSUE...NEARLY FLAT AT THE SHORE WITH 2-3 FOOTERS NEAR THE 5 MILE
MARK. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED...
WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 302347
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
747 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIEST FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR INTERSTATE 94. ALL
AREAS WILL SEE RAIN HOWEVER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OFF TO OUR SOUTH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TONIGHT/S RAIN.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DAMP WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 40S THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY TOP OUT
IN THE 50S AGAIN. WE WILL PUSH TO NEAR 60 ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CENTERED ON CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD TURN PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN.

AS FOR THE CHANCES FOR RAIN...HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT
AS AN 850MB WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A
ZONE OF CONVERGENCE IS SEEN ALONG I-94 AT 850MB/S WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME DECENT RAIN RATES FOR A TIME. AN 850MB LLJ INTERSECTS THE
WARM FRONT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE STATE.
THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS OVERNIGHT WITH A GENERAL LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE (I-96).

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION OVERALL...BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS. HAVE 40-50 PCT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOWS. RAIN SHOULD RAMP
UP AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SWEEP BY THE AREA. RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A BIT QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM.  I ADDED POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE RUNNING INTO SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.  WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE A GRAY AND CHILLY DAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND MAINLY DRY.  H8 TEMPS REMAIN
IN THE 0C TO +5C RANGE SO NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...ALTHOUGH SATURDAY
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE AIR MASS SLOWLY MODERATES. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOW BUT WE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL TYPE
SHOWERS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
THURSDAY WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

AS RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING...CEILINGS AND VISBYS
WILL LOWER AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTH FOLLOWED BY
IFR. EXPECT IFR TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE EAST AOB 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONSIDERED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW FOR
WIND...AS EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP A BIT. A FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT IS IN PLACE BETWEEN A LOW JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND A 1030MB
HIGH OVER ONTARIO. THINKING WE WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA THOUGH
IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE. GIVEN AN OFF SHORE WIND...WAVES WILL NOT BE
AN ISSUE...NEARLY FLAT AT THE SHORE WITH 2-3 FOOTERS NEAR THE 5 MILE
MARK. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED...
WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 301928
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIEST FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR INTERSTATE 94. ALL
AREAS WILL SEE RAIN HOWEVER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OFF TO OUR SOUTH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TONIGHT/S RAIN.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DAMP WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 40S THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY TOP OUT
IN THE 50S AGAIN. WE WILL PUSH TO NEAR 60 ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CENTERED ON CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD TURN PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN.

AS FOR THE CHANCES FOR RAIN...HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT
AS AN 850MB WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A
ZONE OF CONVERGENCE IS SEEN ALONG I-94 AT 850MB/S WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME DECENT RAIN RATES FOR A TIME. AN 850MB LLJ INTERSECTS THE
WARM FRONT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE STATE.
THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS OVERNIGHT WITH A GENERAL LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE (I-96).

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION OVERALL...BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS. HAVE 40-50 PCT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOWS. RAIN SHOULD RAMP
UP AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SWEEP BY THE AREA. RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A BIT QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM.  I ADDED POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE RUNNING INTO SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.  WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE A GRAY AND CHILLY DAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND MAINLY DRY.  H8 TEMPS REMAIN
IN THE 0C TO +5C RANGE SO NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...ALTHOUGH SATURDAY
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE AIR MASS SLOWLY MODERATES. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOW BUT WE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL TYPE
SHOWERS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
THURSDAY WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONDITIONS WERE VFR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE THE RULE AS
WE APPROACH THE EVENING. THE SYSTEM WAS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
SO THE I-94 TAF SITES WILL COME DOWN SOONER. EXPECT MVFR BY
21-22Z...AND IFR OR EVEN LIFR DEVELOPING 00-02Z. IT WILL OCCUR
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FOR THE I-96 TAF SITES...WITH MVFR BY 23-00Z AND
IFR BY 01-03Z.

ONCE THE LOWER CONDITIONS ARRIVE IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE IFR/LIFR
WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE GET TOWARD MID DAY SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE MIXING
SEEMS LIGHT SO THIS COULD BE A VERY SLOW PROCESS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONSIDERED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW FOR
WIND...AS EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP A BIT. A FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT IS IN PLACE BETWEEN A LOW JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND A 1030MB
HIGH OVER ONTARIO. THINKING WE WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA THOUGH
IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE. GIVEN AN OFF SHORE WIND...WAVES WILL NOT BE
AN ISSUE...NEARLY FLAT AT THE SHORE WITH 2-3 FOOTERS NEAR THE 5 MILE
MARK. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED...
WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 301756
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
156 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE IN THE DAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS WEEKEND RISING TO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST GOING AS PLANNED TODAY WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING IN
FROM THE SOUTH. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOTED IN THE MODELS IN A
ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. AN 850MB WARM FRONT WHICH SETS UP THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOLD
IN THE 50S IN MANY AREAS GIVEN THE THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
IT WILL FEEL A BIT COOLER WITH A STIFF BREEZE FROM THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND GENERATE LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN GOOD SATURATION WHICH WILL OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR AT THE SFC. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
BY 18Z AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
ROUGHLY A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AND AROUND
A HALF INCH SOUTH OF THERE. SHOWERS FALLING INTO THE DRY AIR TODAY
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME WET BULBING AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

A CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND WE/LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE COLD FRONT PRESSING SOUTH
FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY... BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. THE MAIN CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IT TURNS COLDER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPR TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES. BY FRIDAY AN
OMEGA PATTERN IS PROGGED ALOFT WITH LARGE UPPER LOWS OVER THE ERN
AND WRN U.S. AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION.

CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW REGARDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWING IT CLOSE BY
OVER THE ERN GRTLKS RGN BUT THE GFS SENDING IT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC RGN. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE
WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING... ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
131 IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONDITIONS WERE VFR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE THE RULE AS
WE APPROACH THE EVENING. THE SYSTEM WAS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
SO THE I-94 TAF SITES WILL COME DOWN SOONER. EXPECT MVFR BY
21-22Z...AND IFR OR EVEN LIFR DEVELOPING 00-02Z. IT WILL OCCUR
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FOR THE I-96 TAF SITES...WITH MVFR BY 23-00Z AND
IFR BY 01-03Z.

ONCE THE LOWER CONDITIONS ARRIVE IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE IFR/LIFR
WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE GET TOWARD MID DAY SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE MIXING
SEEMS LIGHT SO THIS COULD BE A VERY SLOW PROCESS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WHILE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT WAVE
HEIGHTS... THE WIND SPEEDS COULD STILL APPROACH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 22 KTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED...
WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04





000
FXUS63 KGRR 301718
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE IN THE DAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS WEEKEND RISING TO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST GOING AS PLANNED TODAY WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING IN
FROM THE SOUTH. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOTED IN THE MODELS IN A
ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. AN 850MB WARM FRONT WHICH SETS UP THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOLD
IN THE 50S IN MANY AREAS GIVEN THE THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
IT WILL FEEL A BIT COOLER WITH A STIFF BREEZE FROM THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND GENERATE LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN GOOD SATURATION WHICH WILL OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR AT THE SFC. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
BY 18Z AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
ROUGHLY A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AND AROUND
A HALF INCH SOUTH OF THERE. SHOWERS FALLING INTO THE DRY AIR TODAY
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME WET BULBING AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

A CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND WE/LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE COLD FRONT PRESSING SOUTH
FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY... BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. THE MAIN CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IT TURNS COLDER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPR TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES. BY FRIDAY AN
OMEGA PATTERN IS PROGGED ALOFT WITH LARGE UPPER LOWS OVER THE ERN
AND WRN U.S. AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION.

CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW REGARDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWING IT CLOSE BY
OVER THE ERN GRTLKS RGN BUT THE GFS SENDING IT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC RGN. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE
WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING... ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
131 IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z... THEN RAIN AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR REGION: MVFR SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD 20Z OR
SO... FOLLOWED BY IFR AFTER 00Z. LIFR POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.

FOR THE I-96 CORRIDOR REGION: THE MVFR SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD 00Z
WITH IFR PROBABLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WHILE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT WAVE
HEIGHTS... THE WIND SPEEDS COULD STILL APPROACH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 22 KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED...
WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.


&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04





000
FXUS63 KGRR 301626
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1226 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE IN THE DAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS WEEKEND RISING TO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST GOING AS PLANNED TODAY WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING IN
FROM THE SOUTH. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOTED IN THE MODELS IN A
ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. AN 850MB WARM FRONT WHICH SETS UP THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOLD
IN THE 50S IN MANY AREAS GIVEN THE THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
IT WILL FEEL A BIT COOLER WITH A STIFF BREEZE FROM THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND GENERATE LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN GOOD SATURATION WHICH WILL OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR AT THE SFC. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
BY 18Z AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
ROUGHLY A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AND AROUND
A HALF INCH SOUTH OF THERE. SHOWERS FALLING INTO THE DRY AIR TODAY
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME WET BULBING AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

A CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND WE/LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE COLD FRONT PRESSING SOUTH
FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY... BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. THE MAIN CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IT TURNS COLDER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPR TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES. BY FRIDAY AN
OMEGA PATTERN IS PROGGED ALOFT WITH LARGE UPPER LOWS OVER THE ERN
AND WRN U.S. AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION.

CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW REGARDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWING IT CLOSE BY
OVER THE ERN GRTLKS RGN BUT THE GFS SENDING IT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC RGN. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE
WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING... ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
131 IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z... THEN RAIN AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR REGION: MVFR SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD 20Z OR
SO... FOLLOWED BY IFR AFTER 00Z. LIFR POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.

FOR THE I-96 CORRIDOR REGION: THE MVFR SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD 00Z
WITH IFR PROBABLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WHILE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT WAVE
HEIGHTS... THE WIND SPEEDS COULD STILL APPROACH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 22 KTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A SMALLER
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04





000
FXUS63 KGRR 301154
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
754 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE IN THE DAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS WEEKEND RISING TO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND GENERATE LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN GOOD SATURATION WHICH WILL OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR AT THE SFC. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
BY 18Z AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
ROUGHLY A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AND AROUND
A HALF INCH SOUTH OF THERE. SHOWERS FALLING INTO THE DRY AIR TODAY
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME WET BULBING AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

A CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND WE/LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE COLD FRONT PRESSING SOUTH
FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY... BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. THE MAIN CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IT TURNS COLDER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPR TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES. BY FRIDAY AN
OMEGA PATTERN IS PROGGED ALOFT WITH LARGE UPPER LOWS OVER THE ERN
AND WRN U.S. AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION.

CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW REGARDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWING IT CLOSE BY
OVER THE ERN GRTLKS RGN BUT THE GFS SENDING IT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC RGN. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE
WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING... ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
131 IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z... THEN RAIN AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR REGION: MVFR SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD 20Z OR
SO... FOLLOWED BY IFR AFTER 00Z. LIFR POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.

FOR THE I-96 CORRIDOR REGION: THE MVFR SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD 00Z
WITH IFR PROBABLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WHILE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT WAVE
HEIGHTS... THE WIND SPEEDS COULD STILL APPROACH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 22 KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A SMALLER
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04





000
FXUS63 KGRR 300729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS
WEEKEND RISING TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND GENERATE LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN GOOD SATURATION WHICH WILL OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR AT THE SFC. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
BY 18Z AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
ROUGHLY A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AND AROUND
A HALF INCH SOUTH OF THERE. SHOWERS FALLING INTO THE DRY AIR TODAY
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME WET BULBING AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

A CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND WE/LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE COLD FRONT PRESSING SOUTH
ON TUESDAY... BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND
MILD WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. THE MAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IT TURNS COLDER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPR TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES. BY FRIDAY AN
OMEGA PATTERN IS PROGGED ALOFT WITH LARGE UPPER LOWS OVER THE ERN
AND WRN U.S. AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION.

CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW REGARDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWING IT CLOSE BY
OVER THE ERN GRTLKS RGN BUT THE GFS SENDING IT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC RGN. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE WILL
SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING... ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THEN CEILINGS LOWER TO
AROUND 2500 FEET AGL SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NO MARINE ISSUES DUE TO LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A SMALLER
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04





000
FXUS63 KGRR 300351
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1151 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL BE FROM NEAR FREEZING NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH AND WEST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. ANOTHER STORM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HEAD
THIS WAY FOR SATURDAY. IT WILL BRING INCREASINGLY STRONG EAST
WINDS...INCREASING CLOUDS AND FINALLY RAIN... THAT MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY DURING THE DAY
INTO MONDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THERE ARE TWO MAIN ISSUES AS I SEE IT... THE RISK FOR
FROST/FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR THEN HOW MUCH
RAIN WILL FALL SATURDAY NIGHT?

AS FOR THE FROST/FREEZE ISSUE TONIGHT SKIES ARE ALREADY CLEARING
AS DRY AIR FROM THE CANADIAN SHIELD MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
MIXING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO TRYING
TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THIS AREA...FARTHER HELPING THAT CAUSE. DEW
POINTS HAVE FALLEN TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH OF GRAND
RAPIDS AND WILL FALL INTO THE 20S NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS THIS
EVENING AS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FEED IN ON EAST NORTHEAST
WINDS. WHAT SHOULD HELP PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST OR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS THE WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM TONIGHT.
WINDS BETWEEN 1000 FT AND 3000 FT ABOVE THE GROUND ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS BY MIDNIGHT. THAT MIXING WILL HELP KEEP THE
AIR NEAR THE GROUND MIXED SO TEMPERATURES CAN NOT FALL AS THEY
OTHERWISE WOULD. THIS WILL LIMIT LOWS TO LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH AND WEST OF GRAND RAPIDS.

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT FOR THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
FINALLY THE OPERATIONAL GFS AGREES WITH IT`S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND
BRINGS THE RAIN IN. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96 SHOULD
SEE AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS ANOTHER ISENTROPIC LIFT
EVENT. ALL AREAS WILL SEE RAIN..BUT NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE THE
LEAST AMOUNT.

A WAVE ON THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE SOME CLEARLY FINALLY OCCURS.

$$

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH ONLY ONE DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN.

WE SHOULD REMAIN IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.  H8 TEMPS VARY FROM 0C TO
+5C...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY BIG SWINGS IN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD LARGELY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND
LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-96 EACH NIGHT EXCEPT TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE ONLY DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHEN A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SHOULD PASS
THROUGH ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT.  NOT AN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
SYSTEM WITH MINIMAL GULF MOISTURE...BUT THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE NOT ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST
JUST YET HOWEVER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK FOR MORE QUIET BUT COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THEN CEILINGS LOWER TO
AROUND 2500 FEET AGL SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

WE MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR WIND SPEED SATURDAY
NIGHT IF THIS SYSTEM IS A TOUCH STRONG THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WINDS SHOULD FROM THE EAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A SMALLER
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM





000
FXUS63 KGRR 292342
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
742 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL BE FROM NEAR FREEZING NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH AND WEST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. ANOTHER STORM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HEAD
THIS WAY FOR SATURDAY. IT WILL BRING INCREASINGLY STRONG EAST
WINDS...INCREASING CLOUDS AND FINALLY RAIN... THAT MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY DURING THE DAY
INTO MONDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THERE ARE TWO MAIN ISSUES AS I SEE IT... THE RISK FOR
FROST/FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR THEN HOW MUCH
RAIN WILL FALL SATURDAY NIGHT?

AS FOR THE FROST/FREEZE ISSUE TONIGHT SKIES ARE ALREADY CLEARING
AS DRY AIR FROM THE CANADIAN SHIELD MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
MIXING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO TRYING
TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THIS AREA...FARTHER HELPING THAT CAUSE. DEW
POINTS HAVE FALLEN TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH OF GRAND
RAPIDS AND WILL FALL INTO THE 20S NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS THIS
EVENING AS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FEED IN ON EAST NORTHEAST
WINDS. WHAT SHOULD HELP PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST OR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS THE WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM TONIGHT.
WINDS BETWEEN 1000 FT AND 3000 FT ABOVE THE GROUND ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS BY MIDNIGHT. THAT MIXING WILL HELP KEEP THE
AIR NEAR THE GROUND MIXED SO TEMPERATURES CAN NOT FALL AS THEY
OTHERWISE WOULD. THIS WILL LIMIT LOWS TO LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH AND WEST OF GRAND RAPIDS.

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT FOR THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
FINALLY THE OPERATIONAL GFS AGREES WITH IT`S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND
BRINGS THE RAIN IN. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96 SHOULD
SEE AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS ANOTHER ISENTROPIC LIFT
EVENT. ALL AREAS WILL SEE RAIN..BUT NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE THE
LEAST AMOUNT.

A WAVE ON THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE SOME CLEARLY FINALLY OCCURS.

$$

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH ONLY ONE DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN.

WE SHOULD REMAIN IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.  H8 TEMPS VARY FROM 0C TO
+5C...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY BIG SWINGS IN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD LARGELY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND
LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-96 EACH NIGHT EXCEPT TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE ONLY DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHEN A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SHOULD PASS
THROUGH ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT.  NOT AN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
SYSTEM WITH MINIMAL GULF MOISTURE...BUT THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE NOT ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST
JUST YET HOWEVER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK FOR MORE QUIET BUT COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND 3000 FEET AGL THIS EVENING AND INTO
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH,

EAST WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

WE MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR WIND SPEED SATURDAY
NIGHT IF THIS SYSTEM IS A TOUCH STRONG THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WINDS SHOULD FROM THE EAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A SMALLER
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM





000
FXUS63 KGRR 291928
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL BE FROM NEAR FREEZING NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH AND WEST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. ANOTHER STORM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HEAD
THIS WAY FOR SATURDAY. IT WILL BRING INCREASINGLY STRONG EAST
WINDS...INCREASING CLOUDS AND FINALLY RAIN... THAT MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY DURING THE DAY
INTO MONDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THERE ARE TWO MAIN ISSUES AS I SEE IT... THE RISK FOR
FROST/FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR THEN HOW MUCH
RAIN WILL FALL SATURDAY NIGHT?

AS FOR THE FROST/FREEZE ISSUE TONIGHT SKIES ARE ALREADY CLEARING
AS DRY AIR FROM THE CANADIAN SHIELD MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
MIXING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO TRYING
TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THIS AREA...FARTHER HELPING THAT CAUSE. DEW
POINTS HAVE FALLEN TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH OF GRAND
RAPIDS AND WILL FALL INTO THE 20S NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS THIS
EVENING AS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FEED IN ON EAST NORTHEAST
WINDS. WHAT SHOULD HELP PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST OR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS THE WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM TONIGHT.
WINDS BETWEEN 1000 FT AND 3000 FT ABOVE THE GROUND ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS BY MIDNIGHT. THAT MIXING WILL HELP KEEP THE
AIR NEAR THE GROUND MIXED SO TEMPERATURES CAN NOT FALL AS THEY
OTHERWISE WOULD. THIS WILL LIMIT LOWS TO LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH AND WEST OF GRAND RAPIDS.

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT FOR THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
FINALLY THE OPERATIONAL GFS AGREES WITH IT`S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND
BRINGS THE RAIN IN. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96 SHOULD
SEE AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS ANOTHER ISENTROPIC LIFT
EVENT. ALL AREAS WILL SEE RAIN..BUT NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE THE
LEAST AMOUNT.

A WAVE ON THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE SOME CLEARLY FINALLY OCCURS.

$$

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH ONLY ONE DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN.

WE SHOULD REMAIN IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.  H8 TEMPS VARY FROM 0C TO
+5C...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY BIG SWINGS IN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD LARGELY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND
LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-96 EACH NIGHT EXCEPT TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE ONLY DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHEN A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SHOULD PASS
THROUGH ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT.  NOT AN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
SYSTEM WITH MINIMAL GULF MOISTURE...BUT THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE NOT ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST
JUST YET HOWEVER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK FOR MORE QUIET BUT COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE REGION WAS STILL SEEING LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER CEILINGS WERE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR. DRIER AIR WILL VERY
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL HELP LIFT ALL CEILINGS TO
VFR BY 19-20Z. EVEN THOUGH MOST AREAS WON/T LOSE THE LOW CLOUDS
INTO TONIGHT...WE STILL EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

WE SHOULD FINALLY LOSE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS BY
SATURDAY MORNING 11-14Z...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING ON
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS AN OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTH AS ANOTHER RAIN SYSTEM HEADS OUR WAY. MVFR WILL POSSIBLY
DEVELOP ALONG I-94 INTO THE MID AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME IFR
COULD BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 00Z SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

WE MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR WIND SPEED SATURDAY
NIGHT IF THIS SYSTEM IS A TOUCH STRONG THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WINDS SHOULD FROM THE EAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A SMALLER
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM





000
FXUS63 KGRR 291728
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
128 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL LINGER TODAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND AND BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE AREA OF RAIN (MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS) IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THAT WILL PULL EAST OF THE AREA
BY NOON OR SO. THAT WILL END THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR AT
LEAST 36 HOURS.

THE MAJOR ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL THERE BE A FREEZE NEAR AND NORTH
OF ROUTE 10? IF SKIES CAN CLEAR THIS EVENING THERE IS AT LEAST
SOME CONCERN THAT TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO NEAR FREEZING OVER
NORTHERN AREA TONIGHT. THE LATEST NAM12 SHOWS DEW POINTS FORECAST
TO FALL TO BELOW FREEZING OVER AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF ROUTE 10 BY
THIS EVENING. WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON...SEEMS THERE WOULD BE DECENT
CHANCE TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO NEAR FREEZING IN THOSE LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT. WHAT IS AGAINST THAT IS THERE WILL BE A 10 TO 20 KNOTS
OF WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER... THAT SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING THAT LOW. STILL THIS NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED. SEEMS TO ME WITH THE OUTFLOW OFF THE CANADIAN SHIELD INTO
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM... THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO CLEAR THE SKIES THIS EVENING SO THE FREEZE ISSUE
IS AT LEAST A CONCERN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 802 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SNOW THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF ROUGHLY HIGHWAY M20.
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP AND SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S WILL ALLOW
THIS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE TEMPS WARM. ALSO
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THIS SAME AREA PER LATEST
RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
PERSISTENT NE WINDS ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MIDDLE 50S.

DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. HOWEVER A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WILL MOVE NE
INTO THE LWR OH VALLEY REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY NEAR TO SOUTH OF
I-96 LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
MIDDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE NW BUILDS IN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER ON MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOMEWHAT COOL ON MONDAY... BUT GUIDANCE TEMPS
CONTINUE TO TREND UP FOR TUESDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE SNEAKS IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF UPR TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA.
WE SHOULD SEE READINGS PUSHING 70 TUESDAY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
THEN THE SFC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH LWR MI LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPR TROUGH AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
IMPACTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER THE UPR TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SET UP
TO OUR EAST AND MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED. SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN... BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH SFC DEW PTS ONLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE REGION WAS STILL SEEING LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER CEILINGS WERE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR. DRIER AIR WILL VERY
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL HELP LIFT ALL CEILINGS TO
VFR BY 19-20Z. EVEN THOUGH MOST AREAS WON/T LOSE THE LOW CLOUDS
INTO TONIGHT...WE STILL EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

WE SHOULD FINALLY LOSE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS BY
SATURDAY MORNING 11-14Z...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING ON
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS AN OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTH AS ANOTHER RAIN SYSTEM HEADS OUR WAY. MVFR WILL POSSIBLY
DEVELOP ALONG I-94 INTO THE MID AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME IFR
COULD BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONTINUED ENE WINDS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL WAVE ACTION TODAY AND
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA INTO
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A SMALLER
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...LAURENS





000
FXUS63 KGRR 291658
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1258 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL LINGER TODAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND AND BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE AREA OF RAIN (MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS) IS
ASSOICATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THAT WILL PULL EAST OF THE AREA
BY NOON OR SO. THAT WILL END THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR AT
LEAST 36 HOURS.

THE MAJOR ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL THERE BE A FREEZE NEAR AND NORTH
OF ROUTE 10? IF SKIES CAN CLEAR THIS EVENING THERE IS AT LEAST
SOME CONCERN THAT TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO NEAR FREEZING OVER
NORTHERN AREA TONIGHT. THE LATEST NAM12 SHOWS DEW POINTS FORECAST
TO FALL TO BELOW FREEZING OVER AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF ROUTE 10 BY
THIS EVENING. WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON...SEEMS THERE WOULD BE DECENT
CHANCE TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO NEAR FREEZING IN THOSE LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT. WHAT IS AGAINST THAT IS THERE WILL BE A 10 TO 20 KNOTS
OF WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER... THAT SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING THAT LOW. STILL THIS NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED. SEEMS TO ME WITH THE OUTFLOW OFF THE CANADIAN SHIELD INTO
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM... THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO CLEAR THE SKIES THIS EVENING SO THE FREEZE ISSUE
IS AT LEAST A CONCERN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 802 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SNOW THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF ROUGHLY HIGHWAY M20.
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP AND SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S WILL ALLOW
THIS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE TEMPS WARM. ALSO
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THIS SAME AREA PER LATEST
RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
PERSISTENT NE WINDS ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MIDDLE 50S.

DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. HOWEVER A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WILL MOVE NE
INTO THE LWR OH VALLEY REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY NEAR TO SOUTH OF
I-96 LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
MIDDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE NW BUILDS IN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER ON MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOMEWHAT COOL ON MONDAY... BUT GUIDANCE TEMPS
CONTINUE TO TREND UP FOR TUESDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE SNEAKS IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF UPR TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA.
WE SHOULD SEE READINGS PUSHING 70 TUESDAY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
THEN THE SFC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH LWR MI LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPR TROUGH AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
IMPACTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER THE UPR TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SET UP
TO OUR EAST AND MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED. SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN... BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH SFC DEW PTS ONLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY LEADING TO BRIEF VSBYS REDUCTIONS OF 4-5
MILES. SHOWERS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
LEVELS. VFR LIKELY TONIGHT AS CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONTINUED ENE WINDS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL WAVE ACTION TODAY AND
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A SMALLER
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...LAURENS





000
FXUS63 KGRR 291508
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1108 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL LINGER TODAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND AND BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE AREA OF RAIN (MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS) IS
ASSOICATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THAT WILL PULL EAST OF THE AREA
BY NOON OR SO. THAT WILL END THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR AT
LEAST 36 HOURS.

THE MAJOR ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL THERE BE A FREEZE NEAR AND NORTH
OF ROUTE 10? IF SKIES CAN CLEAR THIS EVENING THERE IS AT LEAST
SOME CONCERN THAT TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO NEAR FREEZING OVER
NORTHERN AREA TONIGHT. THE LATEST NAM12 SHOWS DEW POINTS FORECAST
TO FALL TO BELOW FREEZING OVER AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF ROUTE 10 BY
THIS EVENING. WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON...SEEMS THERE WOULD BE DECENT
CHANCE TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO NEAR FREEZING IN THOSE LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT. WHAT IS AGAINST THAT IS THERE WILL BE A 10 TO 20 KNOTS
OF WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER... THAT SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING THAT LOW. STILL THIS NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED. SEEMS TO ME WITH THE OUTFLOW OFF THE CANADIAN SHIELD INTO
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM... THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO CLEAR THE SKIES THIS EVENING SO THE FREEZE ISSUE
IS AT LEAST A CONCERN.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 802 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SNOW THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF ROUGHLY HIGHWAY M20.
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP AND SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S WILL ALLOW
THIS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE TEMPS WARM. ALSO
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THIS SAME AREA PER LATEST
RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
PERSISTENT NE WINDS ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MIDDLE 50S.

DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. HOWEVER A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WILL MOVE NE
INTO THE LWR OH VALLEY REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY NEAR TO SOUTH OF
I-96 LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
MIDDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE NW BUILDS IN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER ON MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOMEWHAT COOL ON MONDAY... BUT GUIDANCE TEMPS
CONTINUE TO TREND UP FOR TUESDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE SNEAKS IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF UPR TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA.
WE SHOULD SEE READINGS PUSHING 70 TUESDAY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
THEN THE SFC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH LWR MI LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPR TROUGH AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
IMPACTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER THE UPR TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SET UP
TO OUR EAST AND MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED. SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN... BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH SFC DEW PTS ONLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY LEADING TO BRIEF VSBYS REDUCTIONS OF 4-5
MILES. SHOWERS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
LEVELS. VFR LIKELY TONIGHT AS CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONTINUED ENE WINDS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL WAVE ACTION TODAY AND
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA INTO
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
WILL ACT TO KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A
SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...LAURENS





000
FXUS63 KGRR 291202
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
802 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL LINGER TODAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND AND BRING SOME SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SNOW THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF ROUGHLY HIGHWAY M20.
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP AND SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S WILL ALLOW
THIS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE TEMPS WARM. ALSO
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THIS SAME AREA PER LATEST
RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
PERSISTENT NE WINDS ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MIDDLE 50S.

DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. HOWEVER A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WILL MOVE NE
INTO THE LWR OH VALLEY REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY NEAR TO SOUTH OF
I-96 LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
MIDDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE NW BUILDS IN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER ON MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOMEWHAT COOL ON MONDAY... BUT GUIDANCE TEMPS
CONTINUE TO TREND UP FOR TUESDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE SNEAKS IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF UPR TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA.
WE SHOULD SEE READINGS PUSHING 70 TUESDAY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
THEN THE SFC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH LWR MI LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPR TROUGH AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
IMPACTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER THE UPR TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SET UP
TO OUR EAST AND MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED. SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN... BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH SFC DEW PTS ONLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY LEADING TO BRIEF VSBYS REDUCTIONS OF 4-5
MILES. SHOWERS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
LEVELS. VFR LIKELY TONIGHT AS CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONTINUED ENE WINDS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL WAVE ACTION TODAY AND
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA INTO
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
WILL ACT TO KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A
SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...LAURENS





000
FXUS63 KGRR 291202
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
802 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL LINGER TODAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND AND BRING SOME SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SNOW THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF ROUGHLY HIGHWAY M20.
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP AND SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S WILL ALLOW
THIS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE TEMPS WARM. ALSO
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THIS SAME AREA PER LATEST
RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
PERSISTENT NE WINDS ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MIDDLE 50S.

DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. HOWEVER A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WILL MOVE NE
INTO THE LWR OH VALLEY REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY NEAR TO SOUTH OF
I-96 LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
MIDDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE NW BUILDS IN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER ON MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOMEWHAT COOL ON MONDAY... BUT GUIDANCE TEMPS
CONTINUE TO TREND UP FOR TUESDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE SNEAKS IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF UPR TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA.
WE SHOULD SEE READINGS PUSHING 70 TUESDAY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
THEN THE SFC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH LWR MI LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPR TROUGH AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
IMPACTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER THE UPR TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SET UP
TO OUR EAST AND MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED. SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN... BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH SFC DEW PTS ONLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY LEADING TO BRIEF VSBYS REDUCTIONS OF 4-5
MILES. SHOWERS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
LEVELS. VFR LIKELY TONIGHT AS CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONTINUED ENE WINDS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL WAVE ACTION TODAY AND
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA INTO
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
WILL ACT TO KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A
SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...LAURENS





000
FXUS63 KGRR 291137
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
737 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL LINGER TODAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND AND BRING SOME SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
PERSISTENT NE WINDS ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MIDDLE 50S.

DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. HOWEVER A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WILL MOVE NE
INTO THE LWR OH VALLEY REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY NEAR TO SOUTH OF
I-96 LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
MIDDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE NW BUILDS IN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER ON MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOMEWHAT COOL ON MONDAY... BUT GUIDANCE TEMPS
CONTINUE TO TREND UP FOR TUESDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE SNEAKS IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF UPR TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA.
WE SHOULD SEE READINGS PUSHING 70 TUESDAY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
THEN THE SFC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH LWR MI LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPR TROUGH AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
IMPACTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER THE UPR TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SET UP
TO OUR EAST AND MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED. SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN... BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH SFC DEW PTS ONLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY LEADING TO BRIEF VSBYS REDUCTIONS OF 4-5
MILES. SHOWERS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
LEVELS. VFR LIKELY TONIGHT AS CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONTINUED ENE WINDS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL WAVE ACTION TODAY AND
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA INTO
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
WILL ACT TO KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A
SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...LAURENS





000
FXUS63 KGRR 290727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL LINGER TODAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND AND BRING SOME SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
PERISTENT NE WINDS ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MIDDLE 50S.

DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. HOWEVER A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WILL MOVE NE
INTO THE LWR OH VALLEY REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY NEAR TO SOUTH OF
I-96 LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
MIDDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE NW BUILDS IN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER ON MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOMEWHAT COOL ON MONDAY... BUT GUIDANCE TEMPS
CONTINUE TO TREND UP FOR TUESDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE SNEAKS IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF UPR TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA.
WE SHOULD SEE READINGS PUSHING 70 TUESDAY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
THEN THE SFC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH LWR MI LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPR TROUGH AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
IMPACTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER THE UPR TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SET UP
TO OUR EAST AND MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED. SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN... BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH SFC DEW PTS ONLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST AOB 10 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONTINUED ENE WINDS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL WAVE ACTION TODAY AND
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
WILL ACT TO KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A
SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...LAURENS





000
FXUS63 KGRR 290353
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1153 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

A SLOWING WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BUILD SOUTH JUST ENOUGH TO CLEAR THE SKIES
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THAT WILL NOT LAST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO AREA SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

LITTLE QUESTION ITS BEEN A CHILLY LATE APRIL DAY... AND THERE IS
LITTLE QUESTION THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
RAIN FROM INITIAL PUSH OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD COME TO AN END
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THAT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. THAT SHOULD ALL MOVE OUT BY NOONISH.

THE REAL QUESTION IS CAN WE GET SOME CLEARING BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM
MOVING OUT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN? IT DOES LOOK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH RIDGING BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM MOVING OUT AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL FROST POSSIBLE.

FINALLY THE NEXT ISSUE IS JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN GETS WITH
THE NEXT SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH NEARLY ALL OF IT`S
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE ECMWF AND NAM AND SREF IN THAT IT KEEPS
THE RAIN SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED TO THE LAST 2
SYSTEMS... AND HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN GOT GIVEN BOTH OF THEM HAD
TO DEAL WITH THE CANADIAN BLOCK TOO... I BELIEVE THE RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
LAYERED CLOUDS COMING IN WITH THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

WE WILL SEE A THREAT OF RAIN REMAIN ON SUN/SUN NIGHT...HOWEVER IT
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY FOR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. THE MAIN
PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY SUN. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WAITING THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED INVERTED SFC TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH.

WE SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DRY WEATHER FOR MON AND TUE...HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE A CHC OF A SHOWER TUE AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT BUILD IN FOR MON AND TUE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A CHC OF A POP UP SHOWER ON TUE WITH SOME DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...AND SOMEWHAT OF A TROUGH COMING THROUGH PER THE GFS.

THE BETTER CHC OF RAIN WILL COME BEGINNING LATE TUE AND CONTINUE
INTO WED. THIS OCCURS AS A LARGER AMPLITUDE RIDGE TAKES SHAPE WELL
WEST OF THE AREA...AND A NNW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY STOUT SHORT WAVE TO DROP THROUGH AND BRING A
DECENT CHC OF RAIN. IN FACT ADDITIONAL WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE AREA WHILE THE NNW FLOW REMAINS...AT LEAST INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST AOB 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE PERSISTANT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY FROM 5 TO
15 MPH WILL RESULT IN NO NEED FOR ANY MARINE HEADLINES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
WILL ACT TO KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A
SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM





000
FXUS63 KGRR 282355
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
755 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

A SLOWING WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BUILD SOUTH JUST ENOUGH TO CLEAR THE SKIES
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THAT WILL NOT LAST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO AREA SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

LITTLE QUESTION ITS BEEN A CHILLY LATE APRIL DAY... AND THERE IS
LITTLE QUESTION THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
RAIN FROM INITIAL PUSH OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD COME TO AN END
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THAT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. THAT SHOULD ALL MOVE OUT BY NOONISH.

THE REAL QUESTION IS CAN WE GET SOME CLEARING BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM
MOVING OUT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN? IT DOES LOOK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH RIDGING BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM MOVING OUT AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL FROST POSSIBLE.

FINALLY THE NEXT ISSUE IS JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN GETS WITH
THE NEXT SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH NEARLY ALL OF IT`S
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE ECMWF AND NAM AND SREF IN THAT IT KEEPS
THE RAIN SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED TO THE LAST 2
SYSTEMS... AND HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN GOT GIVEN BOTH OF THEM HAD
TO DEAL WITH THE CANADIAN BLOCK TOO... I BELIEVE THE RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
LAYERED CLOUDS COMING IN WITH THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

WE WILL SEE A THREAT OF RAIN REMAIN ON SUN/SUN NIGHT...HOWEVER IT
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY FOR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. THE MAIN
PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY SUN. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WAITING THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED INVERTED SFC TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH.

WE SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DRY WEATHER FOR MON AND TUE...HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE A CHC OF A SHOWER TUE AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT BUILD IN FOR MON AND TUE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A CHC OF A POP UP SHOWER ON TUE WITH SOME DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...AND SOMEWHAT OF A TROUGH COMING THROUGH PER THE GFS.

THE BETTER CHC OF RAIN WILL COME BEGINNING LATE TUE AND CONTINUE
INTO WED. THIS OCCURS AS A LARGER AMPLITUDE RIDGE TAKES SHAPE WELL
WEST OF THE AREA...AND A NNW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY STOUT SHORT WAVE TO DROP THROUGH AND BRING A
DECENT CHC OF RAIN. IN FACT ADDITIONAL WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE AREA WHILE THE NNW FLOW REMAINS...AT LEAST INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SOME IFR IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS WELL WITH
CEILINGS DROPPING TO AROUND 800 FEET NEAR AZO.

WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST AOB 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE PERSISTANT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY FROM 5 TO
15 MPH WILL RESULT IN NO NEED FOR ANY MARINE HEADLINES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
WILL ACT TO KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A
SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM





000
FXUS63 KGRR 282355
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
755 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

A SLOWING WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BUILD SOUTH JUST ENOUGH TO CLEAR THE SKIES
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THAT WILL NOT LAST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO AREA SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

LITTLE QUESTION ITS BEEN A CHILLY LATE APRIL DAY... AND THERE IS
LITTLE QUESTION THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
RAIN FROM INITIAL PUSH OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD COME TO AN END
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THAT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. THAT SHOULD ALL MOVE OUT BY NOONISH.

THE REAL QUESTION IS CAN WE GET SOME CLEARING BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM
MOVING OUT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN? IT DOES LOOK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH RIDGING BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM MOVING OUT AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL FROST POSSIBLE.

FINALLY THE NEXT ISSUE IS JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN GETS WITH
THE NEXT SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH NEARLY ALL OF IT`S
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE ECMWF AND NAM AND SREF IN THAT IT KEEPS
THE RAIN SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED TO THE LAST 2
SYSTEMS... AND HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN GOT GIVEN BOTH OF THEM HAD
TO DEAL WITH THE CANADIAN BLOCK TOO... I BELIEVE THE RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
LAYERED CLOUDS COMING IN WITH THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

WE WILL SEE A THREAT OF RAIN REMAIN ON SUN/SUN NIGHT...HOWEVER IT
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY FOR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. THE MAIN
PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY SUN. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WAITING THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED INVERTED SFC TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH.

WE SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DRY WEATHER FOR MON AND TUE...HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE A CHC OF A SHOWER TUE AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT BUILD IN FOR MON AND TUE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A CHC OF A POP UP SHOWER ON TUE WITH SOME DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...AND SOMEWHAT OF A TROUGH COMING THROUGH PER THE GFS.

THE BETTER CHC OF RAIN WILL COME BEGINNING LATE TUE AND CONTINUE
INTO WED. THIS OCCURS AS A LARGER AMPLITUDE RIDGE TAKES SHAPE WELL
WEST OF THE AREA...AND A NNW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY STOUT SHORT WAVE TO DROP THROUGH AND BRING A
DECENT CHC OF RAIN. IN FACT ADDITIONAL WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE AREA WHILE THE NNW FLOW REMAINS...AT LEAST INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SOME IFR IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS WELL WITH
CEILINGS DROPPING TO AROUND 800 FEET NEAR AZO.

WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST AOB 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE PERSISTANT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY FROM 5 TO
15 MPH WILL RESULT IN NO NEED FOR ANY MARINE HEADLINES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
WILL ACT TO KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A
SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM





000
FXUS63 KGRR 281926
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
326 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

A SLOWING WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BUILD SOUTH JUST ENOUGH TO CLEAR THE SKIES
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THAT WILL NOT LAST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO AREA SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

LITTLE QUESTION ITS BEEN A CHILLY LATE APRIL DAY... AND THERE IS
LITTLE QUESTION THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
RAIN FROM INITIAL PUSH OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD COME TO AN END
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THAT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. THAT SHOULD ALL MOVE OUT BY NOONISH.

THE REAL QUESTION IS CAN WE GET SOME CLEARING BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM
MOVING OUT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN? IT DOES LOOK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH RIDGING BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM MOVING OUT AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL FROST POSSIBLE.

FINALLY THE NEXT ISSUE IS JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN GETS WITH
THE NEXT SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH NEARLY ALL OF IT`S
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE ECMWF AND NAM AND SREF IN THAT IT KEEPS
THE RAIN SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED TO THE LAST 2
SYSTEMS... AND HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN GOT GIVEN BOTH OF THEM HAD
TO DEAL WITH THE CANADIAN BLOCK TOO... I BELIEVE THE RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
LAYERED CLOUDS COMING IN WITH THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

WE WILL SEE A THREAT OF RAIN REMAIN ON SUN/SUN NIGHT...HOWEVER IT
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY FOR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. THE MAIN
PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY SUN. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WAITING THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED INVERTED SFC TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH.

WE SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DRY WEATHER FOR MON AND TUE...HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE A CHC OF A SHOWER TUE AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT BUILD IN FOR MON AND TUE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A CHC OF A POP UP SHOWER ON TUE WITH SOME DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...AND SOMEWHAT OF A TROUGH COMING THROUGH PER THE GFS.

THE BETTER CHC OF RAIN WILL COME BEGINNING LATE TUE AND CONTINUE
INTO WED. THIS OCCURS AS A LARGER AMPLITUDE RIDGE TAKES SHAPE WELL
WEST OF THE AREA...AND A NNW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY STOUT SHORT WAVE TO DROP THROUGH AND BRING A
DECENT CHC OF RAIN. IN FACT ADDITIONAL WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE AREA WHILE THE NNW FLOW REMAINS...AT LEAST INTO THU.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RAIN SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...ARE NOW SHIFTING NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AS OF 1730Z. VFR
CONDITIONS THAT WERE IN PLACE ARE NOW IN THE PROCESS OF CHANGING TO
MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WE EXPECT THE MVFR CONDITIONS
TO MOVE OVER THE I-96 TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITHOUT MUCH
RAIN.

MORE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE ALSO SHOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS SNEAK UP
TO AT LEAST THE I-94 TERMINALS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST
INTO FRI MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TOWARD AND
AFTER 18Z FRI.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE PERSISTANT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY FROM 5 TO
15 MPH WILL RESULT IN NO NEED FOR ANY MARINE HEADLINES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
WILL ACT TO KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A
SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM





000
FXUS63 KGRR 281800
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
200 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BRING FAIR WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

KGRR/RGNL RADAR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS GRADUALLY MOVING IN FROM THE SW. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOWERS AND BRISK
ENE WINDS THAT WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE 40S.

SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96. DECIDED TO
REMOVE MENTION OF ANY TSTORMS FROM THE FCST DUE TO INSUFFICIENT
SFC OR ELEVATED INSTABILITY OR STRONGER FORCING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO OCCUR.

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING OVER OUR EASTERN FCST AREA BEFORE ENDING. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WX FRIDAY AFTN THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD OF THE WX PATTERN.
HOWEVER THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHC OF MORE RAIN SHOWERS AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. EASTERLY WINDS
AND LOW SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 30S WILL MAKE THIS ANOTHER COOL RAIN
EVENT.

MONDAY WOULD APPEAR TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PLEASANT/DRY
WEATHER WITH SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA SLIDES
SOUTHWARD. TUESDAY MAY BE NICE AS WELL... AND SOMEWHAT WARM...
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE ADVERTISING A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN
U.S. AND PARTICULARLY OVER THE GRTLKS REGION TOWARD MIDWEEK...
DOWNSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WRN UNITED STATES.

THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION ON TUESDAY PRECEDING THIS
INCOMING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT HOLDS
OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE LONG TERM WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND FROM LK MI
WITHIN WARM SECTOR OF SOUTHWARD DROPPING SFC CYCLONE.

CHILLY AND SHOWERY WEATHER LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET NEXT WEDNESDAY
UNDERNEATH COLD POOL/UPR LOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RAIN SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...ARE NOW SHIFTING NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AS OF 1730Z. VFR
CONDITIONS THAT WERE IN PLACE ARE NOW IN THE PROCESS OF CHANGING TO
MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WE EXPECT THE MVFR CONDITIONS
TO MOVE OVER THE I-96 TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITHOUT MUCH
RAIN.

MORE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE ALSO SHOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS SNEAK UP
TO AT LEAST THE I-94 TERMINALS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST
INTO FRI MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TOWARD AND
AFTER 18Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
WILL ACT TO KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A
SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...LAURENS





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities