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000
FXUS63 KGRR 301134
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
734 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY RAIN AT FIRST.
SNOW WILL MIX IN FURTHER NORTH LATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SNOW
EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAINLY RAIN WILL BE COMMON
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE INDIANA BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-96 WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE
NORTH OF M-20.

DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL
RETURN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PRECIP POTENTIAL AND PRECIP
TYPE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING. THE CLIPPER IS CHARACTERIZED BY A MODEST H500-H300 PV
ANOMALY SLIPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA IN THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM APPROXIMATELY
CHICAGO TO TOLEDO OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AS PRECIP MOVES IN AND THE COLUMN BEGINS TO SATURATE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE MORE COMMON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-96.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 06Z. AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-96.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS
IN. FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED WITH A RUN
AT 60 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SFC LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
ON THURSDAY. LOWERED POPS AND QPF FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
THE WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SFC
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...SO LEFT THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A REINFORCING COLD SHOT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME RAIN AND SNOW
WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS EVENING AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TODAY AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DECREASE BLO 10
KNOTS AND BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS AND GO NORTH OR NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TODAY AT 10-20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AND TURN SOUTHERLY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. 2-4
FOOT WAVES EXPECTED TODAY SUBSIDING TO 1-3 FEET THIS EVENING. A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY SNOW
NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...EBW







000
FXUS63 KGRR 301134
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
734 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY RAIN AT FIRST.
SNOW WILL MIX IN FURTHER NORTH LATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SNOW
EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAINLY RAIN WILL BE COMMON
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE INDIANA BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-96 WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE
NORTH OF M-20.

DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL
RETURN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PRECIP POTENTIAL AND PRECIP
TYPE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING. THE CLIPPER IS CHARACTERIZED BY A MODEST H500-H300 PV
ANOMALY SLIPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA IN THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM APPROXIMATELY
CHICAGO TO TOLEDO OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AS PRECIP MOVES IN AND THE COLUMN BEGINS TO SATURATE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE MORE COMMON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-96.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 06Z. AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-96.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS
IN. FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED WITH A RUN
AT 60 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SFC LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
ON THURSDAY. LOWERED POPS AND QPF FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
THE WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SFC
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...SO LEFT THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A REINFORCING COLD SHOT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME RAIN AND SNOW
WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS EVENING AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TODAY AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DECREASE BLO 10
KNOTS AND BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS AND GO NORTH OR NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TODAY AT 10-20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AND TURN SOUTHERLY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. 2-4
FOOT WAVES EXPECTED TODAY SUBSIDING TO 1-3 FEET THIS EVENING. A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY SNOW
NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...EBW







000
FXUS63 KGRR 301134
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
734 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY RAIN AT FIRST.
SNOW WILL MIX IN FURTHER NORTH LATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SNOW
EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAINLY RAIN WILL BE COMMON
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE INDIANA BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-96 WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE
NORTH OF M-20.

DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL
RETURN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PRECIP POTENTIAL AND PRECIP
TYPE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING. THE CLIPPER IS CHARACTERIZED BY A MODEST H500-H300 PV
ANOMALY SLIPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA IN THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM APPROXIMATELY
CHICAGO TO TOLEDO OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AS PRECIP MOVES IN AND THE COLUMN BEGINS TO SATURATE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE MORE COMMON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-96.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 06Z. AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-96.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS
IN. FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED WITH A RUN
AT 60 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SFC LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
ON THURSDAY. LOWERED POPS AND QPF FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
THE WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SFC
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...SO LEFT THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A REINFORCING COLD SHOT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME RAIN AND SNOW
WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS EVENING AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TODAY AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DECREASE BLO 10
KNOTS AND BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS AND GO NORTH OR NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TODAY AT 10-20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AND TURN SOUTHERLY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. 2-4
FOOT WAVES EXPECTED TODAY SUBSIDING TO 1-3 FEET THIS EVENING. A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY SNOW
NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...EBW








000
FXUS63 KGRR 301134
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
734 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY RAIN AT FIRST.
SNOW WILL MIX IN FURTHER NORTH LATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SNOW
EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAINLY RAIN WILL BE COMMON
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE INDIANA BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-96 WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE
NORTH OF M-20.

DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL
RETURN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PRECIP POTENTIAL AND PRECIP
TYPE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING. THE CLIPPER IS CHARACTERIZED BY A MODEST H500-H300 PV
ANOMALY SLIPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA IN THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM APPROXIMATELY
CHICAGO TO TOLEDO OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AS PRECIP MOVES IN AND THE COLUMN BEGINS TO SATURATE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE MORE COMMON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-96.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 06Z. AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-96.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS
IN. FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED WITH A RUN
AT 60 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SFC LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
ON THURSDAY. LOWERED POPS AND QPF FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
THE WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SFC
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...SO LEFT THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A REINFORCING COLD SHOT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME RAIN AND SNOW
WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS EVENING AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TODAY AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DECREASE BLO 10
KNOTS AND BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS AND GO NORTH OR NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TODAY AT 10-20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AND TURN SOUTHERLY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. 2-4
FOOT WAVES EXPECTED TODAY SUBSIDING TO 1-3 FEET THIS EVENING. A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY SNOW
NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...EBW








000
FXUS63 KGRR 300823
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
423 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY RAIN AT FIRST.
SNOW WILL MIX IN FURTHER NORTH LATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SNOW
EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAINLY RAIN WILL BE COMMON
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE INDIANA BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-96 WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE
NORTH OF M-20.

DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL
RETURN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PRECIP POTENTIAL AND PRECIP
TYPE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING. THE CLIPPER IS CHARACTERIZED BY A MODEST H500-H300 PV
ANOMALY SLIPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA IN THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM APPROXIMATELY
CHICAGO TO TOLEDO OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AS PRECIP MOVES IN AND THE COLUMN BEGINS TO SATURATE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE MORE COMMON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-96.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 06Z. AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-96.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS
IN. FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED WITH A RUN
AT 60 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SFC LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
ON THURSDAY. LOWERED POPS AND QPF FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
THE WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SFC
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...SO LEFT THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A REINFORCING COLD SHOT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST...WITH VFR WEATHER
NOT INTO KMKG AND SOON KGRR. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES. THE WIND WILL ALSO BE ON THE DOWNWARD
TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE VALUES BECOME WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING LOW WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECASTS SUPPORT A RAIN EVENT FOR
THE TAF SITES. THE INITIAL LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ACT
TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 06S DESPITE THE FALLING RAIN. IF
TEMPERATURES END UP A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER...WE COULD END UP WITH
A SNOW EVENT AND IMPACTS FOR KGRR...KMKG AND POSSIBLY KLAN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TODAY AT 10-20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AND TURN SOUTHERLY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. 2-4
FOOT WAVES EXPECTED TODAY SUBSIDING TO 1-3 FEET THIS EVENING. A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY SNOW
NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...EBW







000
FXUS63 KGRR 300823
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
423 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY RAIN AT FIRST.
SNOW WILL MIX IN FURTHER NORTH LATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SNOW
EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAINLY RAIN WILL BE COMMON
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE INDIANA BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-96 WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE
NORTH OF M-20.

DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL
RETURN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PRECIP POTENTIAL AND PRECIP
TYPE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING. THE CLIPPER IS CHARACTERIZED BY A MODEST H500-H300 PV
ANOMALY SLIPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA IN THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM APPROXIMATELY
CHICAGO TO TOLEDO OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AS PRECIP MOVES IN AND THE COLUMN BEGINS TO SATURATE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE MORE COMMON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-96.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 06Z. AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-96.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS
IN. FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED WITH A RUN
AT 60 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SFC LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
ON THURSDAY. LOWERED POPS AND QPF FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
THE WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SFC
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...SO LEFT THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A REINFORCING COLD SHOT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST...WITH VFR WEATHER
NOT INTO KMKG AND SOON KGRR. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES. THE WIND WILL ALSO BE ON THE DOWNWARD
TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE VALUES BECOME WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING LOW WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECASTS SUPPORT A RAIN EVENT FOR
THE TAF SITES. THE INITIAL LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ACT
TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 06S DESPITE THE FALLING RAIN. IF
TEMPERATURES END UP A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER...WE COULD END UP WITH
A SNOW EVENT AND IMPACTS FOR KGRR...KMKG AND POSSIBLY KLAN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TODAY AT 10-20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AND TURN SOUTHERLY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. 2-4
FOOT WAVES EXPECTED TODAY SUBSIDING TO 1-3 FEET THIS EVENING. A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY SNOW
NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...EBW








000
FXUS63 KGRR 300737
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
337 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY RAIN AT FIRST.
SNOW WILL MIX IN FURTHER NORTH LATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SNOW
EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAINLY RAIN WILL BE COMMON
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE INDIANA BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-96 WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE
NORTH OF M-20.

DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL
RETURN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PRECIP POTENTIAL AND PRECIP
TYPE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING. THE CLIPPER IS CHARACTERIZED BY A MODEST H500-H300 PV
ANOMALY SLIPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA IN THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM APPROXIMATELY
CHICAGO TO TOLEDO OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AS PRECIP MOVES IN AND THE COLUMN BEGINS TO SATURATE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE MORE COMMON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-96.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 06Z. AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-96.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS
IN. FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED WITH A RUN
AT 60 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SFC LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
ON THURSDAY. LOWERED POPS AND QPF FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
THE WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SFC
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...SO LEFT THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A REINFORCING COLD SHOT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST...WITH VFR WEATHER
NOT INTO KMKG AND SOON KGRR. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES. THE WIND WILL ALSO BE ON THE DOWNWARD
TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE VALUES BECOME WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING LOW WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECASTS SUPPORT A RAIN EVENT FOR
THE TAF SITES. THE INITIAL LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ACT
TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 06S DESPITE THE FALLING RAIN. IF
TEMPERATURES END UP A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER...WE COULD END UP WITH
A SNOW EVENT AND IMPACTS FOR KGRR...KMKG AND POSSIBLY KLAN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NEARSHORE MARINE FORECASTS BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND MANISTEE WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW...MONDAY MARCH 30TH. THE MARINE SECTION OF THE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL START UP THEN AS WELL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99







000
FXUS63 KGRR 300737
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
337 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY RAIN AT FIRST.
SNOW WILL MIX IN FURTHER NORTH LATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SNOW
EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAINLY RAIN WILL BE COMMON
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE INDIANA BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-96 WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE
NORTH OF M-20.

DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL
RETURN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PRECIP POTENTIAL AND PRECIP
TYPE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING. THE CLIPPER IS CHARACTERIZED BY A MODEST H500-H300 PV
ANOMALY SLIPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA IN THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM APPROXIMATELY
CHICAGO TO TOLEDO OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AS PRECIP MOVES IN AND THE COLUMN BEGINS TO SATURATE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE MORE COMMON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-96.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 06Z. AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-96.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS
IN. FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED WITH A RUN
AT 60 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SFC LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
ON THURSDAY. LOWERED POPS AND QPF FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
THE WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SFC
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...SO LEFT THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A REINFORCING COLD SHOT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST...WITH VFR WEATHER
NOT INTO KMKG AND SOON KGRR. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES. THE WIND WILL ALSO BE ON THE DOWNWARD
TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE VALUES BECOME WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING LOW WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECASTS SUPPORT A RAIN EVENT FOR
THE TAF SITES. THE INITIAL LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ACT
TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 06S DESPITE THE FALLING RAIN. IF
TEMPERATURES END UP A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER...WE COULD END UP WITH
A SNOW EVENT AND IMPACTS FOR KGRR...KMKG AND POSSIBLY KLAN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NEARSHORE MARINE FORECASTS BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND MANISTEE WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW...MONDAY MARCH 30TH. THE MARINE SECTION OF THE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL START UP THEN AS WELL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99








000
FXUS63 KGRR 300737
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
337 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY RAIN AT FIRST.
SNOW WILL MIX IN FURTHER NORTH LATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SNOW
EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAINLY RAIN WILL BE COMMON
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE INDIANA BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-96 WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE
NORTH OF M-20.

DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL
RETURN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PRECIP POTENTIAL AND PRECIP
TYPE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING. THE CLIPPER IS CHARACTERIZED BY A MODEST H500-H300 PV
ANOMALY SLIPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA IN THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM APPROXIMATELY
CHICAGO TO TOLEDO OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AS PRECIP MOVES IN AND THE COLUMN BEGINS TO SATURATE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE MORE COMMON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-96.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 06Z. AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-96.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS
IN. FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED WITH A RUN
AT 60 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SFC LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
ON THURSDAY. LOWERED POPS AND QPF FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
THE WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SFC
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...SO LEFT THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A REINFORCING COLD SHOT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST...WITH VFR WEATHER
NOT INTO KMKG AND SOON KGRR. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES. THE WIND WILL ALSO BE ON THE DOWNWARD
TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE VALUES BECOME WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING LOW WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECASTS SUPPORT A RAIN EVENT FOR
THE TAF SITES. THE INITIAL LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ACT
TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 06S DESPITE THE FALLING RAIN. IF
TEMPERATURES END UP A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER...WE COULD END UP WITH
A SNOW EVENT AND IMPACTS FOR KGRR...KMKG AND POSSIBLY KLAN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NEARSHORE MARINE FORECASTS BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND MANISTEE WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW...MONDAY MARCH 30TH. THE MARINE SECTION OF THE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL START UP THEN AS WELL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99








000
FXUS63 KGRR 300737
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
337 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY RAIN AT FIRST.
SNOW WILL MIX IN FURTHER NORTH LATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SNOW
EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAINLY RAIN WILL BE COMMON
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE INDIANA BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-96 WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE
NORTH OF M-20.

DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL
RETURN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PRECIP POTENTIAL AND PRECIP
TYPE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING. THE CLIPPER IS CHARACTERIZED BY A MODEST H500-H300 PV
ANOMALY SLIPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA IN THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM APPROXIMATELY
CHICAGO TO TOLEDO OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AS PRECIP MOVES IN AND THE COLUMN BEGINS TO SATURATE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE MORE COMMON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-96.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 06Z. AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-96.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS
IN. FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED WITH A RUN
AT 60 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SFC LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
ON THURSDAY. LOWERED POPS AND QPF FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
THE WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SFC
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...SO LEFT THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A REINFORCING COLD SHOT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST...WITH VFR WEATHER
NOT INTO KMKG AND SOON KGRR. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES. THE WIND WILL ALSO BE ON THE DOWNWARD
TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE VALUES BECOME WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING LOW WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECASTS SUPPORT A RAIN EVENT FOR
THE TAF SITES. THE INITIAL LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ACT
TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 06S DESPITE THE FALLING RAIN. IF
TEMPERATURES END UP A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER...WE COULD END UP WITH
A SNOW EVENT AND IMPACTS FOR KGRR...KMKG AND POSSIBLY KLAN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NEARSHORE MARINE FORECASTS BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND MANISTEE WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW...MONDAY MARCH 30TH. THE MARINE SECTION OF THE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL START UP THEN AS WELL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99







000
FXUS63 KGRR 300332
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1132 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A
MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND EVEN A BIT OF SLEET BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM UP WILL OCCUR INTO MID
WEEK AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
EVENT AND THE NEXT ONE SET TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

THE ONGOING EVENT HAS CAME IN WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND
SLEET...WHICH IS GRADUALLY TRYING TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE
MIXTURE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE AS IT WORKS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE DRY AIR IN PLACE HAS RESULTED IN COOLING OF THE PROFILE.
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO GO OVER TO MAINLY RAIN THIS EVENING AS MORE
MOIST AIR IS PULLED IN. A SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL PIVOT THROUGH
THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE. RAIN
AND RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPES.

AS FOR OUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EVENT...THE SHORTWAVE IS JUST
COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH
THE EXACT TRACK THAT IT TAKES ACROSS OUR AREA. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WOULD PUT THE BETTER PRECIPITATION AXIS THROUGH OUR CWA.
AT THIS POINT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
LATER FORECAST WILL BETTER DEFINE THE DETAILS AS THE TRACK ZEROS IN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS DEALING WITH THE SYSTEM IN
THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WILL DETERMINE WHEN THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE...AND IF WE CAN
SNEAK IN A WARM DAY IN ON THU BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE AREA WILL START OUT WITH A DRY AND MILD DAY ON WED. SFC RIDGING
WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
MOVING OVERHEAD. H850 TEMPS OF 4 TO 8C WILL BE ADVECTING IN DURING
THE DAY.

THE UNCERTAIN PORTION OF THE FCST THEN COMES FOR THE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH AT SOME POINT.
FASTER SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS RESULT FROM A NRN STREAM TROUGH
DOMINATING WITH A MORE FLAT AND FASTER FLOW ALOFT. SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF HAVE PHASING BETWEEN THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM AND A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.
THE FRONT WOULD COME THROUGH THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE SLOWER
SOLUTION.

WE HAVE FOCUSED THE PCPN CHCS ON THU AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE CORE OF
THE PCPN POTENTIAL. IT COULD BE EARLY OR LATE...BUT THU LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST BET. WE HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S AS A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. IF THE EURO IS CORRECT WITH A LATER
TIMING...70 STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE.

WE EXPECT THAT THE FRONT AND PCPN WILL NOW CLEAR THE AREA THU
NIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY ON FRI. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
DIVING IN FROM THE NW WILL THEN COME IN ON SAT. THIS WILL BRING A
CHC OF PCPN...WHICH COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF
THE DAY DUE TO WARMING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH ON SUN
BRINGING A SMALL CHC OF PCPN AND WARMER TEMPS BACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST...WITH VFR WEATHER
NOT INTO KMKG AND SOON KGRR. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES. THE WIND WILL ALSO BE ON THE DOWNWARD
TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE VALUES BECOME WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING LOW WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECASTS SUPPORT A RAIN EVENT FOR
THE TAF SITES. THE INITIAL LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ACT
TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 06S DESPITE THE FALLING RAIN. IF
TEMPERATURES END UP A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER...WE COULD END UP WITH
A SNOW EVENT AND IMPACTS FOR KGRR...KMKG AND POSSIBLY KLAN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NEARSHORE MARINE FORECASTS BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND MANISTEE WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW...MONDAY MARCH 30TH. THE MARINE SECTION OF THE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL START UP THEN AS WELL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99








000
FXUS63 KGRR 300332
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1132 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A
MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND EVEN A BIT OF SLEET BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM UP WILL OCCUR INTO MID
WEEK AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
EVENT AND THE NEXT ONE SET TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

THE ONGOING EVENT HAS CAME IN WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND
SLEET...WHICH IS GRADUALLY TRYING TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE
MIXTURE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE AS IT WORKS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE DRY AIR IN PLACE HAS RESULTED IN COOLING OF THE PROFILE.
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO GO OVER TO MAINLY RAIN THIS EVENING AS MORE
MOIST AIR IS PULLED IN. A SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL PIVOT THROUGH
THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE. RAIN
AND RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPES.

AS FOR OUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EVENT...THE SHORTWAVE IS JUST
COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH
THE EXACT TRACK THAT IT TAKES ACROSS OUR AREA. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WOULD PUT THE BETTER PRECIPITATION AXIS THROUGH OUR CWA.
AT THIS POINT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
LATER FORECAST WILL BETTER DEFINE THE DETAILS AS THE TRACK ZEROS IN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS DEALING WITH THE SYSTEM IN
THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WILL DETERMINE WHEN THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE...AND IF WE CAN
SNEAK IN A WARM DAY IN ON THU BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE AREA WILL START OUT WITH A DRY AND MILD DAY ON WED. SFC RIDGING
WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
MOVING OVERHEAD. H850 TEMPS OF 4 TO 8C WILL BE ADVECTING IN DURING
THE DAY.

THE UNCERTAIN PORTION OF THE FCST THEN COMES FOR THE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH AT SOME POINT.
FASTER SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS RESULT FROM A NRN STREAM TROUGH
DOMINATING WITH A MORE FLAT AND FASTER FLOW ALOFT. SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF HAVE PHASING BETWEEN THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM AND A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.
THE FRONT WOULD COME THROUGH THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE SLOWER
SOLUTION.

WE HAVE FOCUSED THE PCPN CHCS ON THU AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE CORE OF
THE PCPN POTENTIAL. IT COULD BE EARLY OR LATE...BUT THU LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST BET. WE HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S AS A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. IF THE EURO IS CORRECT WITH A LATER
TIMING...70 STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE.

WE EXPECT THAT THE FRONT AND PCPN WILL NOW CLEAR THE AREA THU
NIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY ON FRI. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
DIVING IN FROM THE NW WILL THEN COME IN ON SAT. THIS WILL BRING A
CHC OF PCPN...WHICH COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF
THE DAY DUE TO WARMING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH ON SUN
BRINGING A SMALL CHC OF PCPN AND WARMER TEMPS BACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST...WITH VFR WEATHER
NOT INTO KMKG AND SOON KGRR. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES. THE WIND WILL ALSO BE ON THE DOWNWARD
TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE VALUES BECOME WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING LOW WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECASTS SUPPORT A RAIN EVENT FOR
THE TAF SITES. THE INITIAL LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ACT
TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 06S DESPITE THE FALLING RAIN. IF
TEMPERATURES END UP A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER...WE COULD END UP WITH
A SNOW EVENT AND IMPACTS FOR KGRR...KMKG AND POSSIBLY KLAN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NEARSHORE MARINE FORECASTS BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND MANISTEE WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW...MONDAY MARCH 30TH. THE MARINE SECTION OF THE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL START UP THEN AS WELL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99







000
FXUS63 KGRR 292304
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
704 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A
MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND EVEN A BIT OF SLEET BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM UP WILL OCCUR INTO MID
WEEK AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
EVENT AND THE NEXT ONE SET TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

THE ONGOING EVENT HAS CAME IN WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND
SLEET...WHICH IS GRADUALLY TRYING TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE
MIXTURE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE AS IT WORKS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE DRY AIR IN PLACE HAS RESULTED IN COOLING OF THE PROFILE.
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO GO OVER TO MAINLY RAIN THIS EVENING AS MORE
MOIST AIR IS PULLED IN. A SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL PIVOT THROUGH
THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE. RAIN
AND RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPES.

AS FOR OUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EVENT...THE SHORTWAVE IS JUST
COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH
THE EXACT TRACK THAT IT TAKES ACROSS OUR AREA. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WOULD PUT THE BETTER PRECIPITATION AXIS THROUGH OUR CWA.
AT THIS POINT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
LATER FORECAST WILL BETTER DEFINE THE DETAILS AS THE TRACK ZEROS IN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS DEALING WITH THE SYSTEM IN
THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WILL DETERMINE WHEN THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE...AND IF WE CAN
SNEAK IN A WARM DAY IN ON THU BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE AREA WILL START OUT WITH A DRY AND MILD DAY ON WED. SFC RIDGING
WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
MOVING OVERHEAD. H850 TEMPS OF 4 TO 8C WILL BE ADVECTING IN DURING
THE DAY.

THE UNCERTAIN PORTION OF THE FCST THEN COMES FOR THE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH AT SOME POINT.
FASTER SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS RESULT FROM A NRN STREAM TROUGH
DOMINATING WITH A MORE FLAT AND FASTER FLOW ALOFT. SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF HAVE PHASING BETWEEN THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM AND A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.
THE FRONT WOULD COME THROUGH THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE SLOWER
SOLUTION.

WE HAVE FOCUSED THE PCPN CHCS ON THU AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE CORE OF
THE PCPN POTENTIAL. IT COULD BE EARLY OR LATE...BUT THU LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST BET. WE HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S AS A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. IF THE EURO IS CORRECT WITH A LATER
TIMING...70 STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE.

WE EXPECT THAT THE FRONT AND PCPN WILL NOW CLEAR THE AREA THU
NIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY ON FRI. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
DIVING IN FROM THE NW WILL THEN COME IN ON SAT. THIS WILL BRING A
CHC OF PCPN...WHICH COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF
THE DAY DUE TO WARMING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH ON SUN
BRINGING A SMALL CHC OF PCPN AND WARMER TEMPS BACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOWER CEILINGS THIS EVENING.

LOWER CLOUDS WERE ADVECTING IN FROM WI THIS EVENING. THUS THE
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO LOWER. WILL BRING THEM DOWN INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR SOUTHWEST MI TAF SITES. LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE COULD
ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CEILINGS. SKIES WERE CLEARING IN WESTERN
WI...WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING BY MIDNIGHT
IN KMKG.

THE WIND WILL SETTLE DOWN AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. THE WIND WILL VEER
WITH TIME BECOMING WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NEARSHORE MARINE FORECASTS BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND MANISTEE WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW...MONDAY MARCH 30TH. THE MARINE SECTION OF THE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL START UP THEN AS WELL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99







000
FXUS63 KGRR 292304
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
704 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A
MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND EVEN A BIT OF SLEET BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM UP WILL OCCUR INTO MID
WEEK AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
EVENT AND THE NEXT ONE SET TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

THE ONGOING EVENT HAS CAME IN WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND
SLEET...WHICH IS GRADUALLY TRYING TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE
MIXTURE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE AS IT WORKS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE DRY AIR IN PLACE HAS RESULTED IN COOLING OF THE PROFILE.
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO GO OVER TO MAINLY RAIN THIS EVENING AS MORE
MOIST AIR IS PULLED IN. A SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL PIVOT THROUGH
THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE. RAIN
AND RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPES.

AS FOR OUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EVENT...THE SHORTWAVE IS JUST
COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH
THE EXACT TRACK THAT IT TAKES ACROSS OUR AREA. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WOULD PUT THE BETTER PRECIPITATION AXIS THROUGH OUR CWA.
AT THIS POINT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
LATER FORECAST WILL BETTER DEFINE THE DETAILS AS THE TRACK ZEROS IN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS DEALING WITH THE SYSTEM IN
THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WILL DETERMINE WHEN THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE...AND IF WE CAN
SNEAK IN A WARM DAY IN ON THU BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE AREA WILL START OUT WITH A DRY AND MILD DAY ON WED. SFC RIDGING
WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
MOVING OVERHEAD. H850 TEMPS OF 4 TO 8C WILL BE ADVECTING IN DURING
THE DAY.

THE UNCERTAIN PORTION OF THE FCST THEN COMES FOR THE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH AT SOME POINT.
FASTER SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS RESULT FROM A NRN STREAM TROUGH
DOMINATING WITH A MORE FLAT AND FASTER FLOW ALOFT. SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF HAVE PHASING BETWEEN THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM AND A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.
THE FRONT WOULD COME THROUGH THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE SLOWER
SOLUTION.

WE HAVE FOCUSED THE PCPN CHCS ON THU AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE CORE OF
THE PCPN POTENTIAL. IT COULD BE EARLY OR LATE...BUT THU LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST BET. WE HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S AS A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. IF THE EURO IS CORRECT WITH A LATER
TIMING...70 STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE.

WE EXPECT THAT THE FRONT AND PCPN WILL NOW CLEAR THE AREA THU
NIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY ON FRI. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
DIVING IN FROM THE NW WILL THEN COME IN ON SAT. THIS WILL BRING A
CHC OF PCPN...WHICH COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF
THE DAY DUE TO WARMING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH ON SUN
BRINGING A SMALL CHC OF PCPN AND WARMER TEMPS BACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOWER CEILINGS THIS EVENING.

LOWER CLOUDS WERE ADVECTING IN FROM WI THIS EVENING. THUS THE
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO LOWER. WILL BRING THEM DOWN INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR SOUTHWEST MI TAF SITES. LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE COULD
ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CEILINGS. SKIES WERE CLEARING IN WESTERN
WI...WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING BY MIDNIGHT
IN KMKG.

THE WIND WILL SETTLE DOWN AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. THE WIND WILL VEER
WITH TIME BECOMING WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NEARSHORE MARINE FORECASTS BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND MANISTEE WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW...MONDAY MARCH 30TH. THE MARINE SECTION OF THE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL START UP THEN AS WELL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99








000
FXUS63 KGRR 292304
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
704 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A
MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND EVEN A BIT OF SLEET BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM UP WILL OCCUR INTO MID
WEEK AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
EVENT AND THE NEXT ONE SET TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

THE ONGOING EVENT HAS CAME IN WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND
SLEET...WHICH IS GRADUALLY TRYING TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE
MIXTURE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE AS IT WORKS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE DRY AIR IN PLACE HAS RESULTED IN COOLING OF THE PROFILE.
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO GO OVER TO MAINLY RAIN THIS EVENING AS MORE
MOIST AIR IS PULLED IN. A SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL PIVOT THROUGH
THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE. RAIN
AND RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPES.

AS FOR OUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EVENT...THE SHORTWAVE IS JUST
COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH
THE EXACT TRACK THAT IT TAKES ACROSS OUR AREA. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WOULD PUT THE BETTER PRECIPITATION AXIS THROUGH OUR CWA.
AT THIS POINT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
LATER FORECAST WILL BETTER DEFINE THE DETAILS AS THE TRACK ZEROS IN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS DEALING WITH THE SYSTEM IN
THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WILL DETERMINE WHEN THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE...AND IF WE CAN
SNEAK IN A WARM DAY IN ON THU BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE AREA WILL START OUT WITH A DRY AND MILD DAY ON WED. SFC RIDGING
WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
MOVING OVERHEAD. H850 TEMPS OF 4 TO 8C WILL BE ADVECTING IN DURING
THE DAY.

THE UNCERTAIN PORTION OF THE FCST THEN COMES FOR THE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH AT SOME POINT.
FASTER SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS RESULT FROM A NRN STREAM TROUGH
DOMINATING WITH A MORE FLAT AND FASTER FLOW ALOFT. SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF HAVE PHASING BETWEEN THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM AND A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.
THE FRONT WOULD COME THROUGH THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE SLOWER
SOLUTION.

WE HAVE FOCUSED THE PCPN CHCS ON THU AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE CORE OF
THE PCPN POTENTIAL. IT COULD BE EARLY OR LATE...BUT THU LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST BET. WE HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S AS A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. IF THE EURO IS CORRECT WITH A LATER
TIMING...70 STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE.

WE EXPECT THAT THE FRONT AND PCPN WILL NOW CLEAR THE AREA THU
NIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY ON FRI. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
DIVING IN FROM THE NW WILL THEN COME IN ON SAT. THIS WILL BRING A
CHC OF PCPN...WHICH COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF
THE DAY DUE TO WARMING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH ON SUN
BRINGING A SMALL CHC OF PCPN AND WARMER TEMPS BACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOWER CEILINGS THIS EVENING.

LOWER CLOUDS WERE ADVECTING IN FROM WI THIS EVENING. THUS THE
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO LOWER. WILL BRING THEM DOWN INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR SOUTHWEST MI TAF SITES. LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE COULD
ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CEILINGS. SKIES WERE CLEARING IN WESTERN
WI...WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING BY MIDNIGHT
IN KMKG.

THE WIND WILL SETTLE DOWN AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. THE WIND WILL VEER
WITH TIME BECOMING WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NEARSHORE MARINE FORECASTS BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND MANISTEE WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW...MONDAY MARCH 30TH. THE MARINE SECTION OF THE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL START UP THEN AS WELL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99







000
FXUS63 KGRR 292304
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
704 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A
MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND EVEN A BIT OF SLEET BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM UP WILL OCCUR INTO MID
WEEK AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
EVENT AND THE NEXT ONE SET TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

THE ONGOING EVENT HAS CAME IN WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND
SLEET...WHICH IS GRADUALLY TRYING TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE
MIXTURE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE AS IT WORKS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE DRY AIR IN PLACE HAS RESULTED IN COOLING OF THE PROFILE.
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO GO OVER TO MAINLY RAIN THIS EVENING AS MORE
MOIST AIR IS PULLED IN. A SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL PIVOT THROUGH
THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE. RAIN
AND RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPES.

AS FOR OUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EVENT...THE SHORTWAVE IS JUST
COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH
THE EXACT TRACK THAT IT TAKES ACROSS OUR AREA. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WOULD PUT THE BETTER PRECIPITATION AXIS THROUGH OUR CWA.
AT THIS POINT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
LATER FORECAST WILL BETTER DEFINE THE DETAILS AS THE TRACK ZEROS IN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS DEALING WITH THE SYSTEM IN
THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WILL DETERMINE WHEN THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE...AND IF WE CAN
SNEAK IN A WARM DAY IN ON THU BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE AREA WILL START OUT WITH A DRY AND MILD DAY ON WED. SFC RIDGING
WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
MOVING OVERHEAD. H850 TEMPS OF 4 TO 8C WILL BE ADVECTING IN DURING
THE DAY.

THE UNCERTAIN PORTION OF THE FCST THEN COMES FOR THE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH AT SOME POINT.
FASTER SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS RESULT FROM A NRN STREAM TROUGH
DOMINATING WITH A MORE FLAT AND FASTER FLOW ALOFT. SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF HAVE PHASING BETWEEN THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM AND A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.
THE FRONT WOULD COME THROUGH THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE SLOWER
SOLUTION.

WE HAVE FOCUSED THE PCPN CHCS ON THU AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE CORE OF
THE PCPN POTENTIAL. IT COULD BE EARLY OR LATE...BUT THU LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST BET. WE HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S AS A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. IF THE EURO IS CORRECT WITH A LATER
TIMING...70 STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE.

WE EXPECT THAT THE FRONT AND PCPN WILL NOW CLEAR THE AREA THU
NIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY ON FRI. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
DIVING IN FROM THE NW WILL THEN COME IN ON SAT. THIS WILL BRING A
CHC OF PCPN...WHICH COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF
THE DAY DUE TO WARMING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH ON SUN
BRINGING A SMALL CHC OF PCPN AND WARMER TEMPS BACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOWER CEILINGS THIS EVENING.

LOWER CLOUDS WERE ADVECTING IN FROM WI THIS EVENING. THUS THE
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO LOWER. WILL BRING THEM DOWN INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR SOUTHWEST MI TAF SITES. LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE COULD
ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CEILINGS. SKIES WERE CLEARING IN WESTERN
WI...WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING BY MIDNIGHT
IN KMKG.

THE WIND WILL SETTLE DOWN AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. THE WIND WILL VEER
WITH TIME BECOMING WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NEARSHORE MARINE FORECASTS BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND MANISTEE WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW...MONDAY MARCH 30TH. THE MARINE SECTION OF THE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL START UP THEN AS WELL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99








000
FXUS63 KGRR 291930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A
MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND EVEN A BIT OF SLEET BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM UP WILL OCCUR INTO MID
WEEK AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
EVENT AND THE NEXT ONE SET TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

THE ONGOING EVENT HAS CAME IN WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND
SLEET...WHICH IS GRADUALLY TRYING TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE
MIXTURE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE AS IT WORKS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE DRY AIR IN PLACE HAS RESULTED IN COOLING OF THE PROFILE.
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO GO OVER TO MAINLY RAIN THIS EVENING AS MORE
MOIST AIR IS PULLED IN. A SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL PIVOT THROUGH
THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE. RAIN
AND RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPES.

AS FOR OUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EVENT...THE SHORTWAVE IS JUST
COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH
THE EXACT TRACK THAT IT TAKES ACROSS OUR AREA. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WOULD PUT THE BETTER PRECIPITATION AXIS THROUGH OUR CWA.
AT THIS POINT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
LATER FORECAST WILL BETTER DEFINE THE DETAILS AS THE TRACK ZEROS IN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS DEALING WITH THE SYSTEM IN
THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WILL DETERMINE WHEN THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE...AND IF WE CAN
SNEAK IN A WARM DAY IN ON THU BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE AREA WILL START OUT WITH A DRY AND MILD DAY ON WED. SFC RIDGING
WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
MOVING OVERHEAD. H850 TEMPS OF 4 TO 8C WILL BE ADVECTING IN DURING
THE DAY.

THE UNCERTAIN PORTION OF THE FCST THEN COMES FOR THE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH AT SOME POINT.
FASTER SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS RESULT FROM A NRN STREAM TROUGH
DOMINATING WITH A MORE FLAT AND FASTER FLOW ALOFT. SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF HAVE PHASING BETWEEN THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM AND A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.
THE FRONT WOULD COME THROUGH THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE SLOWER
SOLUTION.

WE HAVE FOCUSED THE PCPN CHCS ON THU AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE CORE OF
THE PCPN POTENTIAL. IT COULD BE EARLY OR LATE...BUT THU LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST BET. WE HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S AS A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. IF THE EURO IS CORRECT WITH A LATER
TIMING...70 STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE.

WE EXPECT THAT THE FRONT AND PCPN WILL NOW CLEAR THE AREA THU
NIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY ON FRI. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
DIVING IN FROM THE NW WILL THEN COME IN ON SAT. THIS WILL BRING A
CHC OF PCPN...WHICH COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF
THE DAY DUE TO WARMING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH ON SUN
BRINGING A SMALL CHC OF PCPN AND WARMER TEMPS BACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WITH THE 18Z FCSTS WILL BE THE FIRST 12
HOURS OR SO WITH LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN EXPECTED. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE INITIAL BAND OF PCPN HAS REACHED KMKG AS OF 1740Z.
THIS STARTED AS RAIN AND SLEET/PL AT KMKE AND WE EXPECT THE SAME
HERE. GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WE EXPECT THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN AT KMKG AND KGRR FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO AS THE AIR COOLS OFF WHILE MOISTENING UP. FURTHER SOUTH A
SUFFICIENT WARM LAYER AT THE SFC SHOULD KEEP MOST PCPN RAIN. PCPN
MAY DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE BEHIND THE FIRST BAND...AND AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY BAND THAT WILL COME THROUGH. THE SECONDARY BAND SHOULD
BE ALL RAIN FOR ALL OF THE TERMINALS.

PCPN SHOULD END LATE IN THE EVENING OR VERY EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR.

WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN UP INTO THE 30 KNOT RANGE INTO 02-04Z. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NEARSHORE MARINE FORECASTS BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND MANISTEE WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW...MONDAY MARCH 30TH. THE MARINE SECTION OF THE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL START UP THEN AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99







000
FXUS63 KGRR 291930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A
MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND EVEN A BIT OF SLEET BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM UP WILL OCCUR INTO MID
WEEK AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
EVENT AND THE NEXT ONE SET TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

THE ONGOING EVENT HAS CAME IN WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND
SLEET...WHICH IS GRADUALLY TRYING TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE
MIXTURE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE AS IT WORKS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE DRY AIR IN PLACE HAS RESULTED IN COOLING OF THE PROFILE.
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO GO OVER TO MAINLY RAIN THIS EVENING AS MORE
MOIST AIR IS PULLED IN. A SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL PIVOT THROUGH
THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE. RAIN
AND RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPES.

AS FOR OUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EVENT...THE SHORTWAVE IS JUST
COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH
THE EXACT TRACK THAT IT TAKES ACROSS OUR AREA. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WOULD PUT THE BETTER PRECIPITATION AXIS THROUGH OUR CWA.
AT THIS POINT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
LATER FORECAST WILL BETTER DEFINE THE DETAILS AS THE TRACK ZEROS IN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS DEALING WITH THE SYSTEM IN
THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WILL DETERMINE WHEN THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE...AND IF WE CAN
SNEAK IN A WARM DAY IN ON THU BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE AREA WILL START OUT WITH A DRY AND MILD DAY ON WED. SFC RIDGING
WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
MOVING OVERHEAD. H850 TEMPS OF 4 TO 8C WILL BE ADVECTING IN DURING
THE DAY.

THE UNCERTAIN PORTION OF THE FCST THEN COMES FOR THE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH AT SOME POINT.
FASTER SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS RESULT FROM A NRN STREAM TROUGH
DOMINATING WITH A MORE FLAT AND FASTER FLOW ALOFT. SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF HAVE PHASING BETWEEN THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM AND A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.
THE FRONT WOULD COME THROUGH THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE SLOWER
SOLUTION.

WE HAVE FOCUSED THE PCPN CHCS ON THU AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE CORE OF
THE PCPN POTENTIAL. IT COULD BE EARLY OR LATE...BUT THU LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST BET. WE HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S AS A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. IF THE EURO IS CORRECT WITH A LATER
TIMING...70 STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE.

WE EXPECT THAT THE FRONT AND PCPN WILL NOW CLEAR THE AREA THU
NIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY ON FRI. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
DIVING IN FROM THE NW WILL THEN COME IN ON SAT. THIS WILL BRING A
CHC OF PCPN...WHICH COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF
THE DAY DUE TO WARMING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH ON SUN
BRINGING A SMALL CHC OF PCPN AND WARMER TEMPS BACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WITH THE 18Z FCSTS WILL BE THE FIRST 12
HOURS OR SO WITH LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN EXPECTED. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE INITIAL BAND OF PCPN HAS REACHED KMKG AS OF 1740Z.
THIS STARTED AS RAIN AND SLEET/PL AT KMKE AND WE EXPECT THE SAME
HERE. GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WE EXPECT THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN AT KMKG AND KGRR FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO AS THE AIR COOLS OFF WHILE MOISTENING UP. FURTHER SOUTH A
SUFFICIENT WARM LAYER AT THE SFC SHOULD KEEP MOST PCPN RAIN. PCPN
MAY DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE BEHIND THE FIRST BAND...AND AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY BAND THAT WILL COME THROUGH. THE SECONDARY BAND SHOULD
BE ALL RAIN FOR ALL OF THE TERMINALS.

PCPN SHOULD END LATE IN THE EVENING OR VERY EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR.

WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN UP INTO THE 30 KNOT RANGE INTO 02-04Z. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NEARSHORE MARINE FORECASTS BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND MANISTEE WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW...MONDAY MARCH 30TH. THE MARINE SECTION OF THE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL START UP THEN AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99








000
FXUS63 KGRR 291930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A
MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND EVEN A BIT OF SLEET BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM UP WILL OCCUR INTO MID
WEEK AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
EVENT AND THE NEXT ONE SET TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

THE ONGOING EVENT HAS CAME IN WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND
SLEET...WHICH IS GRADUALLY TRYING TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE
MIXTURE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE AS IT WORKS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE DRY AIR IN PLACE HAS RESULTED IN COOLING OF THE PROFILE.
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO GO OVER TO MAINLY RAIN THIS EVENING AS MORE
MOIST AIR IS PULLED IN. A SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL PIVOT THROUGH
THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE. RAIN
AND RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPES.

AS FOR OUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EVENT...THE SHORTWAVE IS JUST
COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH
THE EXACT TRACK THAT IT TAKES ACROSS OUR AREA. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WOULD PUT THE BETTER PRECIPITATION AXIS THROUGH OUR CWA.
AT THIS POINT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
LATER FORECAST WILL BETTER DEFINE THE DETAILS AS THE TRACK ZEROS IN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS DEALING WITH THE SYSTEM IN
THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WILL DETERMINE WHEN THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE...AND IF WE CAN
SNEAK IN A WARM DAY IN ON THU BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE AREA WILL START OUT WITH A DRY AND MILD DAY ON WED. SFC RIDGING
WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
MOVING OVERHEAD. H850 TEMPS OF 4 TO 8C WILL BE ADVECTING IN DURING
THE DAY.

THE UNCERTAIN PORTION OF THE FCST THEN COMES FOR THE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH AT SOME POINT.
FASTER SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS RESULT FROM A NRN STREAM TROUGH
DOMINATING WITH A MORE FLAT AND FASTER FLOW ALOFT. SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF HAVE PHASING BETWEEN THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM AND A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.
THE FRONT WOULD COME THROUGH THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE SLOWER
SOLUTION.

WE HAVE FOCUSED THE PCPN CHCS ON THU AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE CORE OF
THE PCPN POTENTIAL. IT COULD BE EARLY OR LATE...BUT THU LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST BET. WE HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S AS A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. IF THE EURO IS CORRECT WITH A LATER
TIMING...70 STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE.

WE EXPECT THAT THE FRONT AND PCPN WILL NOW CLEAR THE AREA THU
NIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY ON FRI. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
DIVING IN FROM THE NW WILL THEN COME IN ON SAT. THIS WILL BRING A
CHC OF PCPN...WHICH COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF
THE DAY DUE TO WARMING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH ON SUN
BRINGING A SMALL CHC OF PCPN AND WARMER TEMPS BACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WITH THE 18Z FCSTS WILL BE THE FIRST 12
HOURS OR SO WITH LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN EXPECTED. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE INITIAL BAND OF PCPN HAS REACHED KMKG AS OF 1740Z.
THIS STARTED AS RAIN AND SLEET/PL AT KMKE AND WE EXPECT THE SAME
HERE. GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WE EXPECT THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN AT KMKG AND KGRR FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO AS THE AIR COOLS OFF WHILE MOISTENING UP. FURTHER SOUTH A
SUFFICIENT WARM LAYER AT THE SFC SHOULD KEEP MOST PCPN RAIN. PCPN
MAY DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE BEHIND THE FIRST BAND...AND AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY BAND THAT WILL COME THROUGH. THE SECONDARY BAND SHOULD
BE ALL RAIN FOR ALL OF THE TERMINALS.

PCPN SHOULD END LATE IN THE EVENING OR VERY EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR.

WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN UP INTO THE 30 KNOT RANGE INTO 02-04Z. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NEARSHORE MARINE FORECASTS BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND MANISTEE WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW...MONDAY MARCH 30TH. THE MARINE SECTION OF THE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL START UP THEN AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99







000
FXUS63 KGRR 291930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A
MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND EVEN A BIT OF SLEET BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM UP WILL OCCUR INTO MID
WEEK AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
EVENT AND THE NEXT ONE SET TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

THE ONGOING EVENT HAS CAME IN WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND
SLEET...WHICH IS GRADUALLY TRYING TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE
MIXTURE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE AS IT WORKS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE DRY AIR IN PLACE HAS RESULTED IN COOLING OF THE PROFILE.
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO GO OVER TO MAINLY RAIN THIS EVENING AS MORE
MOIST AIR IS PULLED IN. A SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL PIVOT THROUGH
THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE. RAIN
AND RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPES.

AS FOR OUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EVENT...THE SHORTWAVE IS JUST
COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH
THE EXACT TRACK THAT IT TAKES ACROSS OUR AREA. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WOULD PUT THE BETTER PRECIPITATION AXIS THROUGH OUR CWA.
AT THIS POINT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
LATER FORECAST WILL BETTER DEFINE THE DETAILS AS THE TRACK ZEROS IN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS DEALING WITH THE SYSTEM IN
THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WILL DETERMINE WHEN THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE...AND IF WE CAN
SNEAK IN A WARM DAY IN ON THU BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE AREA WILL START OUT WITH A DRY AND MILD DAY ON WED. SFC RIDGING
WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
MOVING OVERHEAD. H850 TEMPS OF 4 TO 8C WILL BE ADVECTING IN DURING
THE DAY.

THE UNCERTAIN PORTION OF THE FCST THEN COMES FOR THE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH AT SOME POINT.
FASTER SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS RESULT FROM A NRN STREAM TROUGH
DOMINATING WITH A MORE FLAT AND FASTER FLOW ALOFT. SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF HAVE PHASING BETWEEN THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM AND A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.
THE FRONT WOULD COME THROUGH THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE SLOWER
SOLUTION.

WE HAVE FOCUSED THE PCPN CHCS ON THU AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE CORE OF
THE PCPN POTENTIAL. IT COULD BE EARLY OR LATE...BUT THU LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST BET. WE HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S AS A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. IF THE EURO IS CORRECT WITH A LATER
TIMING...70 STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE.

WE EXPECT THAT THE FRONT AND PCPN WILL NOW CLEAR THE AREA THU
NIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY ON FRI. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
DIVING IN FROM THE NW WILL THEN COME IN ON SAT. THIS WILL BRING A
CHC OF PCPN...WHICH COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF
THE DAY DUE TO WARMING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH ON SUN
BRINGING A SMALL CHC OF PCPN AND WARMER TEMPS BACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WITH THE 18Z FCSTS WILL BE THE FIRST 12
HOURS OR SO WITH LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN EXPECTED. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE INITIAL BAND OF PCPN HAS REACHED KMKG AS OF 1740Z.
THIS STARTED AS RAIN AND SLEET/PL AT KMKE AND WE EXPECT THE SAME
HERE. GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WE EXPECT THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN AT KMKG AND KGRR FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO AS THE AIR COOLS OFF WHILE MOISTENING UP. FURTHER SOUTH A
SUFFICIENT WARM LAYER AT THE SFC SHOULD KEEP MOST PCPN RAIN. PCPN
MAY DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE BEHIND THE FIRST BAND...AND AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY BAND THAT WILL COME THROUGH. THE SECONDARY BAND SHOULD
BE ALL RAIN FOR ALL OF THE TERMINALS.

PCPN SHOULD END LATE IN THE EVENING OR VERY EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR.

WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN UP INTO THE 30 KNOT RANGE INTO 02-04Z. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NEARSHORE MARINE FORECASTS BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND MANISTEE WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW...MONDAY MARCH 30TH. THE MARINE SECTION OF THE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL START UP THEN AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99








000
FXUS63 KGRR 291744
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
144 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND IT WILL
ALSO BECOME RATHER WINDY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. EXPECTING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP WILL BE RAIN
ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE A
RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY SNOW ACCUMULATION AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
PUSHED TO NEAR 40 EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE TEENS HOWEVER SO THERE WILL BE WET BULB AFFECTS COOLING
AIR TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S AFTER THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION.
HAVE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GRIDS OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH.

HIGH TEMPS IN MOST AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE 39 TO 44 DEGREE RANGE.
IT WILL BE WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES. THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE FOUND UP ALONG THE LAKESHORE NEAR BIG AND LITTLE SABLE
POINTS. GUSTS ARE NOW UP TO 44 MPH AT THE BIG SABLE POINT
OBSERVATION SITE IN LUDINGTON STATE PARK. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.

A SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WILL WORK
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING BETWEEN 600PM AND 1000PM. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING/SECOND UPPER
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGES INVOLVE DETERMINING POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW LATER TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST SHORT RANGE 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE PCPN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHT SNOW AND MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR SOUTHERN FCST AREA NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96
AS THERMAL PROFILES MODERATE.

AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH
RELATIVELY HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA. HOWEVER IMPACTS WILL
BE VERY MINIMAL GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE OF PCPN AND TEMPS EVEN UP
NORTH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S SUCH THAT SOME MELTING WILL
OCCUR.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 40 MPH RANGE. A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE ESPECIALLY FROM KMKG NORTH TO
KLDM. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

PCPN WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS MONDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW NEAR TO MAINLY NE OF KGRR.

IT IS NOTED THAT 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH WITH
PCPN PLACEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO INTO KGRR/KLAN WHEREAS
00Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LIGHT SNOW WOULD ONLY AFFECT OUR
FAR NORTH TO NE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AFTER A LENGTHY STRETCH OF CHILLY WEATHER... A COUPLE OF MILD
SPRING-LIKE DAYS ARE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY... WITH READINGS
LIKELY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 60 ON THURSDAY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA... WHICH EDGES IN FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE SFC FRONT THAN THE GFS AND HAS
RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS THE RAIN
ARRIVING AS EARLY AS 06Z THURSDAY AND EXITING ALREADY AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY. THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE CRITICAL
BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR.

THE OTHER BIG DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG IT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD DRY AIR
BEHIND IT. IF THE SLOWER ECWMF IDEA OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS
CORRECT...WE COULD SEE OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WITH THE 18Z FCSTS WILL BE THE FIRST 12
HOURS OR SO WITH LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN EXPECTED. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE INITIAL BAND OF PCPN HAS REACHED KMKG AS OF 1740Z.
THIS STARTED AS RAIN AND SLEET/PL AT KMKE AND WE EXPECT THE SAME
HERE. GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WE EXPECT THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN AT KMKG AND KGRR FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO AS THE AIR COOLS OFF WHILE MOISTENING UP. FURTHER SOUTH A
SUFFICIENT WARM LAYER AT THE SFC SHOULD KEEP MOST PCPN RAIN. PCPN
MAY DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE BEHIND THE FIRST BAND...AND AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY BAND THAT WILL COME THROUGH. THE SECONDARY BAND SHOULD
BE ALL RAIN FOR ALL OF THE TERMINALS.

PCPN SHOULD END LATE IN THE EVENING OR VERY EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR.

WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN UP INTO THE 30 KNOT RANGE INTO 02-04Z. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NEARSHORE MARINE FORECASTS BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND MANISTEE WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW...MONDAY MARCH 30TH. THE MARINE SECTION OF THE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL START UP THEN AS WELL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99







000
FXUS63 KGRR 291744
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
144 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND IT WILL
ALSO BECOME RATHER WINDY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. EXPECTING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP WILL BE RAIN
ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE A
RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY SNOW ACCUMULATION AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
PUSHED TO NEAR 40 EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE TEENS HOWEVER SO THERE WILL BE WET BULB AFFECTS COOLING
AIR TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S AFTER THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION.
HAVE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GRIDS OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH.

HIGH TEMPS IN MOST AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE 39 TO 44 DEGREE RANGE.
IT WILL BE WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES. THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE FOUND UP ALONG THE LAKESHORE NEAR BIG AND LITTLE SABLE
POINTS. GUSTS ARE NOW UP TO 44 MPH AT THE BIG SABLE POINT
OBSERVATION SITE IN LUDINGTON STATE PARK. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.

A SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WILL WORK
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING BETWEEN 600PM AND 1000PM. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING/SECOND UPPER
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGES INVOLVE DETERMINING POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW LATER TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST SHORT RANGE 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE PCPN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHT SNOW AND MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR SOUTHERN FCST AREA NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96
AS THERMAL PROFILES MODERATE.

AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH
RELATIVELY HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA. HOWEVER IMPACTS WILL
BE VERY MINIMAL GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE OF PCPN AND TEMPS EVEN UP
NORTH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S SUCH THAT SOME MELTING WILL
OCCUR.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 40 MPH RANGE. A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE ESPECIALLY FROM KMKG NORTH TO
KLDM. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

PCPN WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS MONDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW NEAR TO MAINLY NE OF KGRR.

IT IS NOTED THAT 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH WITH
PCPN PLACEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO INTO KGRR/KLAN WHEREAS
00Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LIGHT SNOW WOULD ONLY AFFECT OUR
FAR NORTH TO NE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AFTER A LENGTHY STRETCH OF CHILLY WEATHER... A COUPLE OF MILD
SPRING-LIKE DAYS ARE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY... WITH READINGS
LIKELY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 60 ON THURSDAY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA... WHICH EDGES IN FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE SFC FRONT THAN THE GFS AND HAS
RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS THE RAIN
ARRIVING AS EARLY AS 06Z THURSDAY AND EXITING ALREADY AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY. THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE CRITICAL
BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR.

THE OTHER BIG DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG IT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD DRY AIR
BEHIND IT. IF THE SLOWER ECWMF IDEA OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS
CORRECT...WE COULD SEE OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WITH THE 18Z FCSTS WILL BE THE FIRST 12
HOURS OR SO WITH LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN EXPECTED. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE INITIAL BAND OF PCPN HAS REACHED KMKG AS OF 1740Z.
THIS STARTED AS RAIN AND SLEET/PL AT KMKE AND WE EXPECT THE SAME
HERE. GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WE EXPECT THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN AT KMKG AND KGRR FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO AS THE AIR COOLS OFF WHILE MOISTENING UP. FURTHER SOUTH A
SUFFICIENT WARM LAYER AT THE SFC SHOULD KEEP MOST PCPN RAIN. PCPN
MAY DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE BEHIND THE FIRST BAND...AND AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY BAND THAT WILL COME THROUGH. THE SECONDARY BAND SHOULD
BE ALL RAIN FOR ALL OF THE TERMINALS.

PCPN SHOULD END LATE IN THE EVENING OR VERY EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR.

WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN UP INTO THE 30 KNOT RANGE INTO 02-04Z. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NEARSHORE MARINE FORECASTS BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND MANISTEE WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW...MONDAY MARCH 30TH. THE MARINE SECTION OF THE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL START UP THEN AS WELL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99








000
FXUS63 KGRR 291744
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
144 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND IT WILL
ALSO BECOME RATHER WINDY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. EXPECTING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP WILL BE RAIN
ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE A
RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY SNOW ACCUMULATION AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
PUSHED TO NEAR 40 EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE TEENS HOWEVER SO THERE WILL BE WET BULB AFFECTS COOLING
AIR TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S AFTER THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION.
HAVE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GRIDS OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH.

HIGH TEMPS IN MOST AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE 39 TO 44 DEGREE RANGE.
IT WILL BE WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES. THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE FOUND UP ALONG THE LAKESHORE NEAR BIG AND LITTLE SABLE
POINTS. GUSTS ARE NOW UP TO 44 MPH AT THE BIG SABLE POINT
OBSERVATION SITE IN LUDINGTON STATE PARK. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.

A SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WILL WORK
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING BETWEEN 600PM AND 1000PM. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING/SECOND UPPER
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGES INVOLVE DETERMINING POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW LATER TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST SHORT RANGE 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE PCPN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHT SNOW AND MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR SOUTHERN FCST AREA NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96
AS THERMAL PROFILES MODERATE.

AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH
RELATIVELY HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA. HOWEVER IMPACTS WILL
BE VERY MINIMAL GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE OF PCPN AND TEMPS EVEN UP
NORTH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S SUCH THAT SOME MELTING WILL
OCCUR.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 40 MPH RANGE. A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE ESPECIALLY FROM KMKG NORTH TO
KLDM. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

PCPN WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS MONDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW NEAR TO MAINLY NE OF KGRR.

IT IS NOTED THAT 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH WITH
PCPN PLACEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO INTO KGRR/KLAN WHEREAS
00Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LIGHT SNOW WOULD ONLY AFFECT OUR
FAR NORTH TO NE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AFTER A LENGTHY STRETCH OF CHILLY WEATHER... A COUPLE OF MILD
SPRING-LIKE DAYS ARE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY... WITH READINGS
LIKELY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 60 ON THURSDAY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA... WHICH EDGES IN FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE SFC FRONT THAN THE GFS AND HAS
RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS THE RAIN
ARRIVING AS EARLY AS 06Z THURSDAY AND EXITING ALREADY AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY. THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE CRITICAL
BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR.

THE OTHER BIG DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG IT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD DRY AIR
BEHIND IT. IF THE SLOWER ECWMF IDEA OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS
CORRECT...WE COULD SEE OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WITH THE 18Z FCSTS WILL BE THE FIRST 12
HOURS OR SO WITH LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN EXPECTED. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE INITIAL BAND OF PCPN HAS REACHED KMKG AS OF 1740Z.
THIS STARTED AS RAIN AND SLEET/PL AT KMKE AND WE EXPECT THE SAME
HERE. GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WE EXPECT THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN AT KMKG AND KGRR FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO AS THE AIR COOLS OFF WHILE MOISTENING UP. FURTHER SOUTH A
SUFFICIENT WARM LAYER AT THE SFC SHOULD KEEP MOST PCPN RAIN. PCPN
MAY DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE BEHIND THE FIRST BAND...AND AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY BAND THAT WILL COME THROUGH. THE SECONDARY BAND SHOULD
BE ALL RAIN FOR ALL OF THE TERMINALS.

PCPN SHOULD END LATE IN THE EVENING OR VERY EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR.

WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN UP INTO THE 30 KNOT RANGE INTO 02-04Z. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NEARSHORE MARINE FORECASTS BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND MANISTEE WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW...MONDAY MARCH 30TH. THE MARINE SECTION OF THE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL START UP THEN AS WELL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99







000
FXUS63 KGRR 291744
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
144 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND IT WILL
ALSO BECOME RATHER WINDY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. EXPECTING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP WILL BE RAIN
ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE A
RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY SNOW ACCUMULATION AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
PUSHED TO NEAR 40 EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE TEENS HOWEVER SO THERE WILL BE WET BULB AFFECTS COOLING
AIR TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S AFTER THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION.
HAVE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GRIDS OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH.

HIGH TEMPS IN MOST AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE 39 TO 44 DEGREE RANGE.
IT WILL BE WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES. THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE FOUND UP ALONG THE LAKESHORE NEAR BIG AND LITTLE SABLE
POINTS. GUSTS ARE NOW UP TO 44 MPH AT THE BIG SABLE POINT
OBSERVATION SITE IN LUDINGTON STATE PARK. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.

A SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WILL WORK
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING BETWEEN 600PM AND 1000PM. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING/SECOND UPPER
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGES INVOLVE DETERMINING POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW LATER TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST SHORT RANGE 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE PCPN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHT SNOW AND MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR SOUTHERN FCST AREA NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96
AS THERMAL PROFILES MODERATE.

AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH
RELATIVELY HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA. HOWEVER IMPACTS WILL
BE VERY MINIMAL GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE OF PCPN AND TEMPS EVEN UP
NORTH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S SUCH THAT SOME MELTING WILL
OCCUR.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 40 MPH RANGE. A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE ESPECIALLY FROM KMKG NORTH TO
KLDM. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

PCPN WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS MONDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW NEAR TO MAINLY NE OF KGRR.

IT IS NOTED THAT 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH WITH
PCPN PLACEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO INTO KGRR/KLAN WHEREAS
00Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LIGHT SNOW WOULD ONLY AFFECT OUR
FAR NORTH TO NE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AFTER A LENGTHY STRETCH OF CHILLY WEATHER... A COUPLE OF MILD
SPRING-LIKE DAYS ARE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY... WITH READINGS
LIKELY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 60 ON THURSDAY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA... WHICH EDGES IN FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE SFC FRONT THAN THE GFS AND HAS
RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS THE RAIN
ARRIVING AS EARLY AS 06Z THURSDAY AND EXITING ALREADY AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY. THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE CRITICAL
BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR.

THE OTHER BIG DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG IT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD DRY AIR
BEHIND IT. IF THE SLOWER ECWMF IDEA OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS
CORRECT...WE COULD SEE OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WITH THE 18Z FCSTS WILL BE THE FIRST 12
HOURS OR SO WITH LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN EXPECTED. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE INITIAL BAND OF PCPN HAS REACHED KMKG AS OF 1740Z.
THIS STARTED AS RAIN AND SLEET/PL AT KMKE AND WE EXPECT THE SAME
HERE. GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WE EXPECT THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN AT KMKG AND KGRR FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO AS THE AIR COOLS OFF WHILE MOISTENING UP. FURTHER SOUTH A
SUFFICIENT WARM LAYER AT THE SFC SHOULD KEEP MOST PCPN RAIN. PCPN
MAY DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE BEHIND THE FIRST BAND...AND AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY BAND THAT WILL COME THROUGH. THE SECONDARY BAND SHOULD
BE ALL RAIN FOR ALL OF THE TERMINALS.

PCPN SHOULD END LATE IN THE EVENING OR VERY EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR.

WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN UP INTO THE 30 KNOT RANGE INTO 02-04Z. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NEARSHORE MARINE FORECASTS BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND MANISTEE WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW...MONDAY MARCH 30TH. THE MARINE SECTION OF THE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL START UP THEN AS WELL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99








000
FXUS63 KGRR 291634
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1234 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND IT WILL
ALSO BECOME RATHER WINDY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. EXPECTING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP WILL BE RAIN
ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE A
RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY SNOW ACCUMULATION AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
PUSHED TO NEAR 40 EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE TEENS HOWEVER SO THERE WILL BE WET BULB AFFECTS COOLING
AIR TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S AFTER THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION.
HAVE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GRIDS OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH.

HIGH TEMPS IN MOST AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE 39 TO 44 DEGREE RANGE.
IT WILL BE WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES. THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE FOUND UP ALONG THE LAKESHORE NEAR BIG AND LITTLE SABLE
POINTS. GUSTS ARE NOW UP TO 44 MPH AT THE BIG SABLE POINT
OBSERVATION SITE IN LUDINGTON STATE PARK. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.

A SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WILL WORK
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING BETWEEN 600PM AND 1000PM. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING/SECOND UPPER
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGES INVOLVE DETERMINING POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW LATER TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST SHORT RANGE 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE PCPN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHT SNOW AND MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR SOUTHERN FCST AREA NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96
AS THERMAL PROFILES MODERATE.

AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH
RELATIVELY HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA. HOWEVER IMPACTS WILL
BE VERY MINIMAL GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE OF PCPN AND TEMPS EVEN UP
NORTH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S SUCH THAT SOME MELTING WILL
OCCUR.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 40 MPH RANGE. A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE ESPECIALLY FROM KMKG NORTH TO
KLDM. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

PCPN WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS MONDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW NEAR TO MAINLY NE OF KGRR.

IT IS NOTED THAT 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH WITH
PCPN PLACEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO INTO KGRR/KLAN WHEREAS
00Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LIGHT SNOW WOULD ONLY AFFECT OUR
FAR NORTH TO NE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AFTER A LENGTHY STRETCH OF CHILLY WEATHER... A COUPLE OF MILD
SPRING-LIKE DAYS ARE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY... WITH READINGS
LIKELY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 60 ON THURSDAY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA... WHICH EDGES IN FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE SFC FRONT THAN THE GFS AND HAS
RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS THE RAIN
ARRIVING AS EARLY AS 06Z THURSDAY AND EXITING ALREADY AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY. THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE CRITICAL
BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR.

THE OTHER BIG DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG IT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD DRY AIR
BEHIND IT. IF THE SLOWER ECWMF IDEA OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS
CORRECT...WE COULD SEE OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN AT
MKG AND POSSIBLY GRR AS WELL AS IT BEGINS.

CIGS/VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT MOD LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE TODAY INTO THE EVENING DUE TO
STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SPEEDS OF 20-25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE SFC WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS. WINDS AT 2-3K FT
AGL WILL BE AROUND 50-55 KTS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE TURNING WESTERLY.

THERE WILL BE A MOD ICING THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE
RAIN... FROM ROUGHLY 2000 FT TO 18000 FT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NEARSHORE MARINE FORECASTS BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND MANISTEE WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW...MONDAY MARCH 30TH. THE MARINE SECTION OF THE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL START UP THEN AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99








000
FXUS63 KGRR 291634
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1234 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND IT WILL
ALSO BECOME RATHER WINDY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. EXPECTING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP WILL BE RAIN
ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE A
RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY SNOW ACCUMULATION AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
PUSHED TO NEAR 40 EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE TEENS HOWEVER SO THERE WILL BE WET BULB AFFECTS COOLING
AIR TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S AFTER THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION.
HAVE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GRIDS OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH.

HIGH TEMPS IN MOST AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE 39 TO 44 DEGREE RANGE.
IT WILL BE WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES. THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE FOUND UP ALONG THE LAKESHORE NEAR BIG AND LITTLE SABLE
POINTS. GUSTS ARE NOW UP TO 44 MPH AT THE BIG SABLE POINT
OBSERVATION SITE IN LUDINGTON STATE PARK. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.

A SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WILL WORK
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING BETWEEN 600PM AND 1000PM. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING/SECOND UPPER
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGES INVOLVE DETERMINING POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW LATER TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST SHORT RANGE 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE PCPN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHT SNOW AND MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR SOUTHERN FCST AREA NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96
AS THERMAL PROFILES MODERATE.

AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH
RELATIVELY HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA. HOWEVER IMPACTS WILL
BE VERY MINIMAL GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE OF PCPN AND TEMPS EVEN UP
NORTH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S SUCH THAT SOME MELTING WILL
OCCUR.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 40 MPH RANGE. A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE ESPECIALLY FROM KMKG NORTH TO
KLDM. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

PCPN WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS MONDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW NEAR TO MAINLY NE OF KGRR.

IT IS NOTED THAT 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH WITH
PCPN PLACEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO INTO KGRR/KLAN WHEREAS
00Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LIGHT SNOW WOULD ONLY AFFECT OUR
FAR NORTH TO NE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AFTER A LENGTHY STRETCH OF CHILLY WEATHER... A COUPLE OF MILD
SPRING-LIKE DAYS ARE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY... WITH READINGS
LIKELY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 60 ON THURSDAY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA... WHICH EDGES IN FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE SFC FRONT THAN THE GFS AND HAS
RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS THE RAIN
ARRIVING AS EARLY AS 06Z THURSDAY AND EXITING ALREADY AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY. THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE CRITICAL
BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR.

THE OTHER BIG DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG IT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD DRY AIR
BEHIND IT. IF THE SLOWER ECWMF IDEA OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS
CORRECT...WE COULD SEE OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN AT
MKG AND POSSIBLY GRR AS WELL AS IT BEGINS.

CIGS/VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT MOD LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE TODAY INTO THE EVENING DUE TO
STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SPEEDS OF 20-25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE SFC WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS. WINDS AT 2-3K FT
AGL WILL BE AROUND 50-55 KTS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE TURNING WESTERLY.

THERE WILL BE A MOD ICING THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE
RAIN... FROM ROUGHLY 2000 FT TO 18000 FT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NEARSHORE MARINE FORECASTS BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND MANISTEE WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW...MONDAY MARCH 30TH. THE MARINE SECTION OF THE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL START UP THEN AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99








000
FXUS63 KGRR 291634
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1234 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND IT WILL
ALSO BECOME RATHER WINDY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. EXPECTING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP WILL BE RAIN
ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE A
RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY SNOW ACCUMULATION AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
PUSHED TO NEAR 40 EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE TEENS HOWEVER SO THERE WILL BE WET BULB AFFECTS COOLING
AIR TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S AFTER THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION.
HAVE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GRIDS OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH.

HIGH TEMPS IN MOST AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE 39 TO 44 DEGREE RANGE.
IT WILL BE WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES. THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE FOUND UP ALONG THE LAKESHORE NEAR BIG AND LITTLE SABLE
POINTS. GUSTS ARE NOW UP TO 44 MPH AT THE BIG SABLE POINT
OBSERVATION SITE IN LUDINGTON STATE PARK. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.

A SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WILL WORK
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING BETWEEN 600PM AND 1000PM. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING/SECOND UPPER
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGES INVOLVE DETERMINING POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW LATER TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST SHORT RANGE 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE PCPN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHT SNOW AND MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR SOUTHERN FCST AREA NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96
AS THERMAL PROFILES MODERATE.

AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH
RELATIVELY HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA. HOWEVER IMPACTS WILL
BE VERY MINIMAL GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE OF PCPN AND TEMPS EVEN UP
NORTH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S SUCH THAT SOME MELTING WILL
OCCUR.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 40 MPH RANGE. A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE ESPECIALLY FROM KMKG NORTH TO
KLDM. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

PCPN WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS MONDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW NEAR TO MAINLY NE OF KGRR.

IT IS NOTED THAT 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH WITH
PCPN PLACEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO INTO KGRR/KLAN WHEREAS
00Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LIGHT SNOW WOULD ONLY AFFECT OUR
FAR NORTH TO NE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AFTER A LENGTHY STRETCH OF CHILLY WEATHER... A COUPLE OF MILD
SPRING-LIKE DAYS ARE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY... WITH READINGS
LIKELY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 60 ON THURSDAY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA... WHICH EDGES IN FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE SFC FRONT THAN THE GFS AND HAS
RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS THE RAIN
ARRIVING AS EARLY AS 06Z THURSDAY AND EXITING ALREADY AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY. THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE CRITICAL
BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR.

THE OTHER BIG DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG IT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD DRY AIR
BEHIND IT. IF THE SLOWER ECWMF IDEA OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS
CORRECT...WE COULD SEE OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN AT
MKG AND POSSIBLY GRR AS WELL AS IT BEGINS.

CIGS/VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT MOD LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE TODAY INTO THE EVENING DUE TO
STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SPEEDS OF 20-25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE SFC WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS. WINDS AT 2-3K FT
AGL WILL BE AROUND 50-55 KTS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE TURNING WESTERLY.

THERE WILL BE A MOD ICING THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE
RAIN... FROM ROUGHLY 2000 FT TO 18000 FT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NEARSHORE MARINE FORECASTS BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND MANISTEE WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW...MONDAY MARCH 30TH. THE MARINE SECTION OF THE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL START UP THEN AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99









000
FXUS63 KGRR 291158
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
758 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND IT WILL
ALSO BECOME RATHER WINDY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGES INVOLVE DETERMINING POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW LATER TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST SHORT RANGE 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE PCPN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHT SNOW AND MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR SOUTHERN FCST AREA NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96
AS THERMAL PROFILES MODERATE.

AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH
RELATIVELY HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA. HOWEVER IMPACTS WILL
BE VERY MINIMAL GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE OF PCPN AND TEMPS EVEN UP
NORTH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S SUCH THAT SOME MELTING WILL
OCCUR.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 40 MPH RANGE. A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE ESPECIALLY FROM KMKG NORTH TO
KLDM. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

PCPN WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS MONDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW NEAR TO MAINLY NE OF KGRR.

IT IS NOTED THAT 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH WITH
PCPN PLACEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO INTO KGRR/KLAN WHEREAS
00Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LIGHT SNOW WOULD ONLY AFFECT OUR
FAR NORTH TO NE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AFTER A LENGTHY STRETCH OF CHILLY WEATHER... A COUPLE OF MILD
SPRING-LIKE DAYS ARE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY... WITH READINGS
LIKELY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 60 ON THURSDAY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA... WHICH EDGES IN FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE SFC FRONT THAN THE GFS AND HAS
RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS THE RAIN
ARRIVING AS EARLY AS 06Z THURSDAY AND EXITING ALREADY AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY. THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE CRITICAL
BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR.

THE OTHER BIG DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG IT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD DRY AIR
BEHIND IT. IF THE SLOWER ECWMF IDEA OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS
CORRECT...WE COULD SEE OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN AT
MKG AND POSSIBLY GRR AS WELL AS IT BEGINS.

CIGS/VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT MOD LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE TODAY INTO THE EVENING DUE TO
STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SPEEDS OF 20-25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE SFC WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS. WINDS AT 2-3K FT
AGL WILL BE AROUND 50-55 KTS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE TURNING WESTERLY.

THERE WILL BE A MOD ICING THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE
RAIN... FROM ROUGHLY 2000 FT TO 18000 FT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THIS SECTION WILL RESUME ON MONDAY MARCH 30TH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99







000
FXUS63 KGRR 291158
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
758 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND IT WILL
ALSO BECOME RATHER WINDY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGES INVOLVE DETERMINING POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW LATER TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST SHORT RANGE 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE PCPN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHT SNOW AND MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR SOUTHERN FCST AREA NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96
AS THERMAL PROFILES MODERATE.

AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH
RELATIVELY HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA. HOWEVER IMPACTS WILL
BE VERY MINIMAL GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE OF PCPN AND TEMPS EVEN UP
NORTH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S SUCH THAT SOME MELTING WILL
OCCUR.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 40 MPH RANGE. A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE ESPECIALLY FROM KMKG NORTH TO
KLDM. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

PCPN WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS MONDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW NEAR TO MAINLY NE OF KGRR.

IT IS NOTED THAT 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH WITH
PCPN PLACEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO INTO KGRR/KLAN WHEREAS
00Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LIGHT SNOW WOULD ONLY AFFECT OUR
FAR NORTH TO NE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AFTER A LENGTHY STRETCH OF CHILLY WEATHER... A COUPLE OF MILD
SPRING-LIKE DAYS ARE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY... WITH READINGS
LIKELY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 60 ON THURSDAY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA... WHICH EDGES IN FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE SFC FRONT THAN THE GFS AND HAS
RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS THE RAIN
ARRIVING AS EARLY AS 06Z THURSDAY AND EXITING ALREADY AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY. THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE CRITICAL
BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR.

THE OTHER BIG DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG IT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD DRY AIR
BEHIND IT. IF THE SLOWER ECWMF IDEA OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS
CORRECT...WE COULD SEE OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN AT
MKG AND POSSIBLY GRR AS WELL AS IT BEGINS.

CIGS/VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT MOD LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE TODAY INTO THE EVENING DUE TO
STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SPEEDS OF 20-25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE SFC WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS. WINDS AT 2-3K FT
AGL WILL BE AROUND 50-55 KTS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE TURNING WESTERLY.

THERE WILL BE A MOD ICING THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE
RAIN... FROM ROUGHLY 2000 FT TO 18000 FT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THIS SECTION WILL RESUME ON MONDAY MARCH 30TH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99








000
FXUS63 KGRR 291158
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
758 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND IT WILL
ALSO BECOME RATHER WINDY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGES INVOLVE DETERMINING POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW LATER TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST SHORT RANGE 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE PCPN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHT SNOW AND MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR SOUTHERN FCST AREA NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96
AS THERMAL PROFILES MODERATE.

AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH
RELATIVELY HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA. HOWEVER IMPACTS WILL
BE VERY MINIMAL GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE OF PCPN AND TEMPS EVEN UP
NORTH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S SUCH THAT SOME MELTING WILL
OCCUR.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 40 MPH RANGE. A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE ESPECIALLY FROM KMKG NORTH TO
KLDM. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

PCPN WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS MONDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW NEAR TO MAINLY NE OF KGRR.

IT IS NOTED THAT 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH WITH
PCPN PLACEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO INTO KGRR/KLAN WHEREAS
00Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LIGHT SNOW WOULD ONLY AFFECT OUR
FAR NORTH TO NE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AFTER A LENGTHY STRETCH OF CHILLY WEATHER... A COUPLE OF MILD
SPRING-LIKE DAYS ARE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY... WITH READINGS
LIKELY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 60 ON THURSDAY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA... WHICH EDGES IN FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE SFC FRONT THAN THE GFS AND HAS
RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS THE RAIN
ARRIVING AS EARLY AS 06Z THURSDAY AND EXITING ALREADY AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY. THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE CRITICAL
BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR.

THE OTHER BIG DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG IT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD DRY AIR
BEHIND IT. IF THE SLOWER ECWMF IDEA OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS
CORRECT...WE COULD SEE OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN AT
MKG AND POSSIBLY GRR AS WELL AS IT BEGINS.

CIGS/VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT MOD LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE TODAY INTO THE EVENING DUE TO
STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SPEEDS OF 20-25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE SFC WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS. WINDS AT 2-3K FT
AGL WILL BE AROUND 50-55 KTS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE TURNING WESTERLY.

THERE WILL BE A MOD ICING THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE
RAIN... FROM ROUGHLY 2000 FT TO 18000 FT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THIS SECTION WILL RESUME ON MONDAY MARCH 30TH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...99








000
FXUS63 KGRR 290730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND IT WILL
ALSO BECOME RATHER WINDY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGES INVOLVE DETERMINING POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW LATER TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST SHORT RANGE 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE PCPN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHT SNOW AND MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR SOUTHERN FCST AREA NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96
AS THERMAL PROFILES MODERATE.

AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH
RELATIVELY HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA. HOWEVER IMPACTS WILL
BE VERY MINIMAL GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE OF PCPN AND TEMPS EVEN UP
NORTH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S SUCH THAT SOME MELTING WILL
OCCUR.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 40 MPH RANGE. A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE ESPECIALLY FROM KMKG NORTH TO
KLDM.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

PCPN WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS MONDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW NEAR TO MAINLY NE OF KGRR.

IT IS NOTED THAT 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH WITH
PCPN PLACEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO INTO KGRR/KLAN WHEREAS
00Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LIGHT SNOW WOULD ONLY AFFECT OUR
FAR NORTH TO NE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AFTER A LENGTHY STRETCH OF CHILLY WEATHER... A COUPLE OF MILD
SPRING-LIKE DAYS ARE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY... WITH READINGS
LIKELY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 60 ON THURSDAY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF
A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA... WHICH EDGES IN FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE SFC FRONT THAN THE GFS AND HAS
RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS THE RAIN
ARRIVING AS EARLY AS 06Z THURSDAY AND EXITING ALREADY AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY. THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE CRITICAL
BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 70 DEGREES ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR.

THE OTHER BIG DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG IT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR
BEHIND IT. IF THE SLOWER ECWMF IDEA OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS
CORRECT...WE COULD SEE OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ALSO HOW STRONG THE WIND GUSTS GO.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR KMKG SUN
AFTERNOON MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. COULD GO IFR IF IT ENDS UP
SLIGHTLY COLDER. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR KGRR AS IT WILL BE A CLOSE
CALL...KEPT IT RAIN FOR NOW.

WIND LOOKS STRONG AS WELL WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY TOPPING 40 KNOTS
FOR KGRR AND KMKG. ABOVE 30 KNOTS LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF SITES LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

IFR LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST IN THE EVENING
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLIMBS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS










000
FXUS63 KGRR 290730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND IT WILL
ALSO BECOME RATHER WINDY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGES INVOLVE DETERMINING POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW LATER TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST SHORT RANGE 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE PCPN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHT SNOW AND MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR SOUTHERN FCST AREA NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96
AS THERMAL PROFILES MODERATE.

AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH
RELATIVELY HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA. HOWEVER IMPACTS WILL
BE VERY MINIMAL GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE OF PCPN AND TEMPS EVEN UP
NORTH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S SUCH THAT SOME MELTING WILL
OCCUR.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 40 MPH RANGE. A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE ESPECIALLY FROM KMKG NORTH TO
KLDM.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

PCPN WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS MONDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW NEAR TO MAINLY NE OF KGRR.

IT IS NOTED THAT 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH WITH
PCPN PLACEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO INTO KGRR/KLAN WHEREAS
00Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LIGHT SNOW WOULD ONLY AFFECT OUR
FAR NORTH TO NE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AFTER A LENGTHY STRETCH OF CHILLY WEATHER... A COUPLE OF MILD
SPRING-LIKE DAYS ARE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY... WITH READINGS
LIKELY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 60 ON THURSDAY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF
A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA... WHICH EDGES IN FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE SFC FRONT THAN THE GFS AND HAS
RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS THE RAIN
ARRIVING AS EARLY AS 06Z THURSDAY AND EXITING ALREADY AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY. THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE CRITICAL
BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 70 DEGREES ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR.

THE OTHER BIG DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG IT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR
BEHIND IT. IF THE SLOWER ECWMF IDEA OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS
CORRECT...WE COULD SEE OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ALSO HOW STRONG THE WIND GUSTS GO.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR KMKG SUN
AFTERNOON MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. COULD GO IFR IF IT ENDS UP
SLIGHTLY COLDER. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR KGRR AS IT WILL BE A CLOSE
CALL...KEPT IT RAIN FOR NOW.

WIND LOOKS STRONG AS WELL WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY TOPPING 40 KNOTS
FOR KGRR AND KMKG. ABOVE 30 KNOTS LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF SITES LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

IFR LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST IN THE EVENING
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLIMBS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS











000
FXUS63 KGRR 290349
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A QUIET NIGHT TO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH
WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
COME TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ON THE ORDER OF AN
INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY BRING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW TO
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN. THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL
FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TWO MAIN ITEMS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE PRECIPITATION EVENT FROM
MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING EVENT STILL HAVE RAIN AND
SNOW IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY FROM INTERSTATE 96 NORTHWARD. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL WARM READINGS INTO THE 40S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN MIDDAY. DRY AIR IN
PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL WET BULB TEMPERATURES DOWN AFTER THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY BE JUST WARM ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN. HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AN INCH OR LESS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT FROM ANY SNOW THAT
OCCURS AND GROUND TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP A BIT.

MONDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL INDICATIONS THAT A SWATH OF SNOW WILL BE PUT DOWN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN GIVEN
TEMPERATURES NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THERE ARE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS TO FOCUS ON DURING THE LONG TERM. THE
FIRST IS A CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE ALL A BIT DIFFERENT IN STORM TRACK WITH THE CLIPPER. THE
NAM IS THE WARMEST AND FARTHEST NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE COLDEST
AND FARTHEST SOUTH. WE/LL USE A BLEND FOR PCPN TYPE UNTIL THE STORM
TRACK BECOMES MORE FIRM. IT/S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO
OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG US-10 EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM AND PCPN
MIXES WITH AND THEN CHANGES OVER TO RAIN. WE/LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS SYSTEM SINCE  A CONTINUED SOUTHERN TREND IN TRACK COULD MEAN
MORE SNOW AND POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS.

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO
THE CWA...BUT THE BIGGER STORM MAY COME FRIDAY.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS MOVING FARTHER SOUTH THEN YESTERDAY. SO
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE DIMINISHING. THE GFS STARTED
SOUTH AND IS NOW MOVING NORTH. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
WE/LL SEE QUITE A BIT OF PCPN. THE QUESTION IS WHAT KIND. FOR NOW IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE TYPE WILL BE RAIN...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ALSO HOW STRONG THE WIND GUSTS GO.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR KMKG SUN
AFTERNOON MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. COULD GO IFR IF IT ENDS UP
SLIGHTLY COLDER. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR KGRR AS IT WILL BE A CLOSE
CALL...KEPT IT RAIN FOR NOW.

WIND LOOKS STRONG AS WELL WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY TOPPING 40 KNOTS
FOR KGRR AND KMKG. ABOVE 30 KNOTS LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF SITES LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

IFR LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST IN THE EVENING
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLIMBS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 282328
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
728 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A QUIET NIGHT TO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH
WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
COME TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ON THE ORDER OF AN
INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY BRING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW TO
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN. THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL
FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TWO MAIN ITEMS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE PRECIPITATION EVENT FROM
MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING EVENT STILL HAVE RAIN AND
SNOW IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY FROM INTERSTATE 96 NORTHWARD. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL WARM READINGS INTO THE 40S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN MIDDAY. DRY AIR IN
PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL WET BULB TEMPERATURES DOWN AFTER THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY BE JUST WARM ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN. HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AN INCH OR LESS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT FROM ANY SNOW THAT
OCCURS AND GROUND TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP A BIT.

MONDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL INDICATIONS THAT A SWATH OF SNOW WILL BE PUT DOWN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN GIVEN
TEMPERATURES NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THERE ARE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS TO FOCUS ON DURING THE LONG TERM. THE
FIRST IS A CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE ALL A BIT DIFFERENT IN STORM TRACK WITH THE CLIPPER. THE
NAM IS THE WARMEST AND FARTHEST NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE COLDEST
AND FARTHEST SOUTH. WE/LL USE A BLEND FOR PCPN TYPE UNTIL THE STORM
TRACK BECOMES MORE FIRM. IT/S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO
OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG US-10 EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM AND PCPN
MIXES WITH AND THEN CHANGES OVER TO RAIN. WE/LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS SYSTEM SINCE  A CONTINUED SOUTHERN TREND IN TRACK COULD MEAN
MORE SNOW AND POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS.

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO
THE CWA...BUT THE BIGGER STORM MAY COME FRIDAY.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS MOVING FARTHER SOUTH THEN YESTERDAY. SO
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE DIMINISHING. THE GFS STARTED
SOUTH AND IS NOW MOVING NORTH. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
WE/LL SEE QUITE A BIT OF PCPN. THE QUESTION IS WHAT KIND. FOR NOW IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE TYPE WILL BE RAIN...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR WEATHER LIKELY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST AROUND THAT TIME BEGINNING IN KMKG
FIRST WILL SUPPORT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT THE
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN...HOWEVER THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS COULD
SUPPORT SNOW. I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD IT TO THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME...BUT IT SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT LOWERING CLOUD BASES AT LEAST DOWN TO THE MVFR LEVEL. A
SMALL RISK FOR IFR EXISTS.

IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS LIKELY
AND POSSIBLY OVER 30 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 282328
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
728 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A QUIET NIGHT TO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH
WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
COME TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ON THE ORDER OF AN
INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY BRING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW TO
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN. THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL
FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TWO MAIN ITEMS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE PRECIPITATION EVENT FROM
MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING EVENT STILL HAVE RAIN AND
SNOW IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY FROM INTERSTATE 96 NORTHWARD. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL WARM READINGS INTO THE 40S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN MIDDAY. DRY AIR IN
PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL WET BULB TEMPERATURES DOWN AFTER THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY BE JUST WARM ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN. HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AN INCH OR LESS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT FROM ANY SNOW THAT
OCCURS AND GROUND TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP A BIT.

MONDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL INDICATIONS THAT A SWATH OF SNOW WILL BE PUT DOWN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN GIVEN
TEMPERATURES NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THERE ARE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS TO FOCUS ON DURING THE LONG TERM. THE
FIRST IS A CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE ALL A BIT DIFFERENT IN STORM TRACK WITH THE CLIPPER. THE
NAM IS THE WARMEST AND FARTHEST NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE COLDEST
AND FARTHEST SOUTH. WE/LL USE A BLEND FOR PCPN TYPE UNTIL THE STORM
TRACK BECOMES MORE FIRM. IT/S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO
OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG US-10 EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM AND PCPN
MIXES WITH AND THEN CHANGES OVER TO RAIN. WE/LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS SYSTEM SINCE  A CONTINUED SOUTHERN TREND IN TRACK COULD MEAN
MORE SNOW AND POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS.

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO
THE CWA...BUT THE BIGGER STORM MAY COME FRIDAY.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS MOVING FARTHER SOUTH THEN YESTERDAY. SO
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE DIMINISHING. THE GFS STARTED
SOUTH AND IS NOW MOVING NORTH. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
WE/LL SEE QUITE A BIT OF PCPN. THE QUESTION IS WHAT KIND. FOR NOW IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE TYPE WILL BE RAIN...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR WEATHER LIKELY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST AROUND THAT TIME BEGINNING IN KMKG
FIRST WILL SUPPORT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT THE
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN...HOWEVER THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS COULD
SUPPORT SNOW. I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD IT TO THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME...BUT IT SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT LOWERING CLOUD BASES AT LEAST DOWN TO THE MVFR LEVEL. A
SMALL RISK FOR IFR EXISTS.

IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS LIKELY
AND POSSIBLY OVER 30 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 281930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
315 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A QUIET NIGHT TO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH
WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
COME TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ON THE ORDER OF AN
INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY BRING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW TO
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN. THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL
FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TWO MAIN ITEMS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE PRECIPITATION EVENT FROM
MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING EVENT STILL HAVE RAIN AND
SNOW IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY FROM INTERSTATE 96 NORTHWARD. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL WARM READINGS INTO THE 40S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN MIDDAY. DRY AIR IN
PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL WET BULB TEMPERATURES DOWN AFTER THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY BE JUST WARM ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN. HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AN INCH OR LESS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT FROM ANY SNOW THAT
OCCURS AND GROUND TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP A BIT.

MONDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL INDICATIONS THAT A SWATH OF SNOW WILL BE PUT DOWN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN GIVEN
TEMPERATURES NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THERE ARE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS TO FOCUS ON DURING THE LONG TERM. THE
FIRST IS A CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE ALL A BIT DIFFERENT IN STORM TRACK WITH THE CLIPPER. THE
NAM IS THE WARMEST AND FARTHEST NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE COLDEST
AND FARTHEST SOUTH. WE/LL USE A BLEND FOR PCPN TYPE UNTIL THE STORM
TRACK BECOMES MORE FIRM. IT/S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO
OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG US-10 EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM AND PCPN
MIXES WITH AND THEN CHANGES OVER TO RAIN. WE/LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS SYSTEM SINCE  A CONTINUED SOUTHERN TREND IN TRACK COULD MEAN
MORE SNOW AND POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS.

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO
THE CWA...BUT THE BIGGER STORM MAY COME FRIDAY.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS MOVING FARTHER SOUTH THEN YESTERDAY. SO
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE DIMINISHING. THE GFS STARTED
SOUTH AND IS NOW MOVING NORTH. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
WE/LL SEE QUITE A BIT OF PCPN. THE QUESTION IS WHAT KIND. FOR NOW IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE TYPE WILL BE RAIN...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AT KMKG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...CAS










000
FXUS63 KGRR 281741
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
141 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FAIR BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
TOWARD THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO INVOLVE
DETERMINING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN OVERALL SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WILL
MOVE IN FROM WNW TO ESE MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CRITICAL THICKNESS TOOLS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF
LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FCST AREA BUT THERMAL
PROFILES WILL MOST LIKELY MODERATE SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH FOR PLAIN
RAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FCST
AREA.

MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHT WET
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST OF OUR
FCST AREA WITH RAPID MELTING AS MAX TEMPS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY ACROSS
RELATIVELY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA MAY RECEIVE
UP TO AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IF PCPN TYPE STAYS MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. PCPN WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY BUT IT WILL
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S IN SPITE OF ALL THE SUN AFTER A VERY COLD
START TO THE DAY TODAY. FAIR AND COLD WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE PCPN GRADUALLY MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY AND PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A CLIPPER MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY... BUT THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TRACK IS STILL A
LITTLE UNCLEAR. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN PRECIP TYPES... WITH A
POTENTIAL SWATH OF 1-3 INCHES NORTH OF THE SFC LOW AND MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FALLING ALONG AND SOUTH SOUTH OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THE MAIN SNOW THREAT MONDAY NIGHT IS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 WITH A
LOW TRACK FROM ROUGHLY MKE TO DETROIT.

A SFC HIGH THAT COMES IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LEADS TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WARM
ADVECTION KICKS IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND THESE TWO
DAYS SHOULD BE THE MILDEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO PERHAPS AROUND 60. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE STATE.

FRIDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY INTERESTING AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A NEGATIVE
TILT SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKING TOWARD SRN LWR MI IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SOLUTION COULD BRING A THUNDER THREAT TO THE
AREA BUT CURRENTLY THE GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA SO FCST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AT KMKG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RIVERS ARE COMFORTABLY BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING. THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM HAD LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON
RIVER LEVELS. PRECIPITATION ON THE WAY FOR SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN WEDNESDAY... SO FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...CAS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 281741
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
141 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FAIR BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
TOWARD THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO INVOLVE
DETERMINING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN OVERALL SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WILL
MOVE IN FROM WNW TO ESE MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CRITICAL THICKNESS TOOLS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF
LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FCST AREA BUT THERMAL
PROFILES WILL MOST LIKELY MODERATE SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH FOR PLAIN
RAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FCST
AREA.

MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHT WET
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST OF OUR
FCST AREA WITH RAPID MELTING AS MAX TEMPS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY ACROSS
RELATIVELY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA MAY RECEIVE
UP TO AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IF PCPN TYPE STAYS MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. PCPN WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY BUT IT WILL
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S IN SPITE OF ALL THE SUN AFTER A VERY COLD
START TO THE DAY TODAY. FAIR AND COLD WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE PCPN GRADUALLY MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY AND PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A CLIPPER MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY... BUT THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TRACK IS STILL A
LITTLE UNCLEAR. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN PRECIP TYPES... WITH A
POTENTIAL SWATH OF 1-3 INCHES NORTH OF THE SFC LOW AND MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FALLING ALONG AND SOUTH SOUTH OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THE MAIN SNOW THREAT MONDAY NIGHT IS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 WITH A
LOW TRACK FROM ROUGHLY MKE TO DETROIT.

A SFC HIGH THAT COMES IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LEADS TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WARM
ADVECTION KICKS IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND THESE TWO
DAYS SHOULD BE THE MILDEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO PERHAPS AROUND 60. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE STATE.

FRIDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY INTERESTING AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A NEGATIVE
TILT SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKING TOWARD SRN LWR MI IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SOLUTION COULD BRING A THUNDER THREAT TO THE
AREA BUT CURRENTLY THE GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA SO FCST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AT KMKG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RIVERS ARE COMFORTABLY BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING. THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM HAD LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON
RIVER LEVELS. PRECIPITATION ON THE WAY FOR SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN WEDNESDAY... SO FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...CAS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 281741
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
141 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FAIR BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
TOWARD THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO INVOLVE
DETERMINING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN OVERALL SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WILL
MOVE IN FROM WNW TO ESE MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CRITICAL THICKNESS TOOLS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF
LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FCST AREA BUT THERMAL
PROFILES WILL MOST LIKELY MODERATE SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH FOR PLAIN
RAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FCST
AREA.

MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHT WET
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST OF OUR
FCST AREA WITH RAPID MELTING AS MAX TEMPS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY ACROSS
RELATIVELY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA MAY RECEIVE
UP TO AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IF PCPN TYPE STAYS MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. PCPN WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY BUT IT WILL
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S IN SPITE OF ALL THE SUN AFTER A VERY COLD
START TO THE DAY TODAY. FAIR AND COLD WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE PCPN GRADUALLY MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY AND PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A CLIPPER MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY... BUT THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TRACK IS STILL A
LITTLE UNCLEAR. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN PRECIP TYPES... WITH A
POTENTIAL SWATH OF 1-3 INCHES NORTH OF THE SFC LOW AND MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FALLING ALONG AND SOUTH SOUTH OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THE MAIN SNOW THREAT MONDAY NIGHT IS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 WITH A
LOW TRACK FROM ROUGHLY MKE TO DETROIT.

A SFC HIGH THAT COMES IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LEADS TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WARM
ADVECTION KICKS IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND THESE TWO
DAYS SHOULD BE THE MILDEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO PERHAPS AROUND 60. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE STATE.

FRIDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY INTERESTING AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A NEGATIVE
TILT SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKING TOWARD SRN LWR MI IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SOLUTION COULD BRING A THUNDER THREAT TO THE
AREA BUT CURRENTLY THE GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA SO FCST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AT KMKG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RIVERS ARE COMFORTABLY BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING. THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM HAD LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON
RIVER LEVELS. PRECIPITATION ON THE WAY FOR SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN WEDNESDAY... SO FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...CAS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 281741
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
141 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FAIR BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
TOWARD THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO INVOLVE
DETERMINING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN OVERALL SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WILL
MOVE IN FROM WNW TO ESE MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CRITICAL THICKNESS TOOLS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF
LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FCST AREA BUT THERMAL
PROFILES WILL MOST LIKELY MODERATE SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH FOR PLAIN
RAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FCST
AREA.

MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHT WET
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST OF OUR
FCST AREA WITH RAPID MELTING AS MAX TEMPS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY ACROSS
RELATIVELY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA MAY RECEIVE
UP TO AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IF PCPN TYPE STAYS MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. PCPN WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY BUT IT WILL
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S IN SPITE OF ALL THE SUN AFTER A VERY COLD
START TO THE DAY TODAY. FAIR AND COLD WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE PCPN GRADUALLY MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY AND PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A CLIPPER MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY... BUT THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TRACK IS STILL A
LITTLE UNCLEAR. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN PRECIP TYPES... WITH A
POTENTIAL SWATH OF 1-3 INCHES NORTH OF THE SFC LOW AND MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FALLING ALONG AND SOUTH SOUTH OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THE MAIN SNOW THREAT MONDAY NIGHT IS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 WITH A
LOW TRACK FROM ROUGHLY MKE TO DETROIT.

A SFC HIGH THAT COMES IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LEADS TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WARM
ADVECTION KICKS IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND THESE TWO
DAYS SHOULD BE THE MILDEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO PERHAPS AROUND 60. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE STATE.

FRIDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY INTERESTING AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A NEGATIVE
TILT SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKING TOWARD SRN LWR MI IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SOLUTION COULD BRING A THUNDER THREAT TO THE
AREA BUT CURRENTLY THE GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA SO FCST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AT KMKG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RIVERS ARE COMFORTABLY BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING. THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM HAD LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON
RIVER LEVELS. PRECIPITATION ON THE WAY FOR SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN WEDNESDAY... SO FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...CAS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 281148
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
748 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FAIR BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
TOWARD THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO INVOLVE
DETERMINING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN OVERALL SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WILL
MOVE IN FROM WNW TO ESE MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CRITICAL THICKNESS TOOLS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF
LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FCST AREA BUT THERMAL
PROFILES WILL MOST LIKELY MODERATE SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH FOR PLAIN
RAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FCST
AREA.

MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHT WET
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST OF OUR
FCST AREA WITH RAPID MELTING AS MAX TEMPS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY ACROSS
RELATIVELY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA MAY RECEIVE
UP TO AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IF PCPN TYPE STAYS MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. PCPN WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY BUT IT WILL
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S IN SPITE OF ALL THE SUN AFTER A VERY COLD
START TO THE DAY TODAY. FAIR AND COLD WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE PCPN GRADUALLY MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY AND PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A CLIPPER MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY... BUT THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TRACK IS STILL A
LITTLE UNCLEAR. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN PRECIP TYPES... WITH A
POTENTIAL SWATH OF 1-3 INCHES NORTH OF THE SFC LOW AND MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FALLING ALONG AND SOUTH SOUTH OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THE MAIN SNOW THREAT MONDAY NIGHT IS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 WITH A
LOW TRACK FROM ROUGHLY MKE TO DETROIT.

A SFC HIGH THAT COMES IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LEADS TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WARM
ADVECTION KICKS IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND THESE TWO
DAYS SHOULD BE THE MILDEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO PERHAPS AROUND 60. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE STATE.

FRIDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY INTERESTING AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A NEGATIVE
TILT SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKING TOWARD SRN LWR MI IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SOLUTION COULD BRING A THUNDER THREAT TO THE
AREA BUT CURRENTLY THE GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA SO FCST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
DUE TO VERY DRY AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE. NORTH SFC WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS TODAY... BECOMING SOUTH AT 5-10 KTS LATE TONIGHT BUT A
BIT STRONGER AT MKG. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12,000 FT ARRIVING
LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RIVERS ARE COMFORTABLY BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING. THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM HAD LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON
RIVER LEVELS. PRECIPITATION ON THE WAY FOR SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN WEDNESDAY... SO FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 281148
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
748 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FAIR BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
TOWARD THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO INVOLVE
DETERMINING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN OVERALL SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WILL
MOVE IN FROM WNW TO ESE MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CRITICAL THICKNESS TOOLS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF
LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FCST AREA BUT THERMAL
PROFILES WILL MOST LIKELY MODERATE SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH FOR PLAIN
RAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FCST
AREA.

MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHT WET
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST OF OUR
FCST AREA WITH RAPID MELTING AS MAX TEMPS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY ACROSS
RELATIVELY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA MAY RECEIVE
UP TO AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IF PCPN TYPE STAYS MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. PCPN WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY BUT IT WILL
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S IN SPITE OF ALL THE SUN AFTER A VERY COLD
START TO THE DAY TODAY. FAIR AND COLD WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE PCPN GRADUALLY MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY AND PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A CLIPPER MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY... BUT THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TRACK IS STILL A
LITTLE UNCLEAR. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN PRECIP TYPES... WITH A
POTENTIAL SWATH OF 1-3 INCHES NORTH OF THE SFC LOW AND MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FALLING ALONG AND SOUTH SOUTH OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THE MAIN SNOW THREAT MONDAY NIGHT IS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 WITH A
LOW TRACK FROM ROUGHLY MKE TO DETROIT.

A SFC HIGH THAT COMES IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LEADS TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WARM
ADVECTION KICKS IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND THESE TWO
DAYS SHOULD BE THE MILDEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO PERHAPS AROUND 60. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE STATE.

FRIDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY INTERESTING AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A NEGATIVE
TILT SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKING TOWARD SRN LWR MI IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SOLUTION COULD BRING A THUNDER THREAT TO THE
AREA BUT CURRENTLY THE GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA SO FCST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
DUE TO VERY DRY AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE. NORTH SFC WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS TODAY... BECOMING SOUTH AT 5-10 KTS LATE TONIGHT BUT A
BIT STRONGER AT MKG. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12,000 FT ARRIVING
LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RIVERS ARE COMFORTABLY BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING. THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM HAD LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON
RIVER LEVELS. PRECIPITATION ON THE WAY FOR SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN WEDNESDAY... SO FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS









000
FXUS63 KGRR 281148
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
748 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FAIR BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
TOWARD THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO INVOLVE
DETERMINING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN OVERALL SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WILL
MOVE IN FROM WNW TO ESE MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CRITICAL THICKNESS TOOLS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF
LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FCST AREA BUT THERMAL
PROFILES WILL MOST LIKELY MODERATE SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH FOR PLAIN
RAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FCST
AREA.

MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHT WET
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST OF OUR
FCST AREA WITH RAPID MELTING AS MAX TEMPS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY ACROSS
RELATIVELY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA MAY RECEIVE
UP TO AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IF PCPN TYPE STAYS MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. PCPN WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY BUT IT WILL
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S IN SPITE OF ALL THE SUN AFTER A VERY COLD
START TO THE DAY TODAY. FAIR AND COLD WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE PCPN GRADUALLY MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY AND PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A CLIPPER MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY... BUT THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TRACK IS STILL A
LITTLE UNCLEAR. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN PRECIP TYPES... WITH A
POTENTIAL SWATH OF 1-3 INCHES NORTH OF THE SFC LOW AND MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FALLING ALONG AND SOUTH SOUTH OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THE MAIN SNOW THREAT MONDAY NIGHT IS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 WITH A
LOW TRACK FROM ROUGHLY MKE TO DETROIT.

A SFC HIGH THAT COMES IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LEADS TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WARM
ADVECTION KICKS IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND THESE TWO
DAYS SHOULD BE THE MILDEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO PERHAPS AROUND 60. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE STATE.

FRIDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY INTERESTING AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A NEGATIVE
TILT SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKING TOWARD SRN LWR MI IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SOLUTION COULD BRING A THUNDER THREAT TO THE
AREA BUT CURRENTLY THE GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA SO FCST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
DUE TO VERY DRY AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE. NORTH SFC WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS TODAY... BECOMING SOUTH AT 5-10 KTS LATE TONIGHT BUT A
BIT STRONGER AT MKG. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12,000 FT ARRIVING
LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RIVERS ARE COMFORTABLY BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING. THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM HAD LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON
RIVER LEVELS. PRECIPITATION ON THE WAY FOR SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN WEDNESDAY... SO FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 280730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FAIR BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
TOWARD THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO INVOLVE
DETERMINING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN OVERALL SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WILL
MOVE IN FROM WNW TO ESE MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CRITICAL THICKNESS TOOLS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF
LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FCST AREA BUT THERMAL
PROFILES WILL MOST LIKELY MODERATE SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH FOR PLAIN
RAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FCST
AREA.

MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHT WET
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST OF OUR
FCST AREA WITH RAPID MELTING AS MAX TEMPS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY ACROSS
RELATIVELY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA MAY RECEIVE
UP TO AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IF PCPN TYPE STAYS MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. PCPN WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY BUT IT WILL
REMAIN UNSEASOSONABLY COLD. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S IN SPITE OF ALL THE SUN AFTER A VERY COLD
START TO THE DAY TODAY. FAIR AND COLD WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE PCPN GRADUALLY MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY AND PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A CLIPPER MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY... BUT THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TRACK IS STILL A
LITTLE UNCLEAR. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN PRECIP TYPES... WITH A
POTENTIAL SWATH OF 1-3 INCHES NORTH OF THE SFC LOW AND MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FALLING ALONG AND SOUTH SOUTH OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THE MAIN SNOW THREAT MONDAY NIGHT IS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 WITH A
LOW TRACK FROM ROUGHLY MKE TO DETROIT.

A SFC HIGH THAT COMES IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LEADS TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WARM
ADVECTION KICKS IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND THESE TWO
DAYS SHOULD BE THE MILDEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO PERHAPS AROUND 60. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE STATE.

FRIDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY INTERESTING AS THE ECWMF SHOWS A NEGATIVE
TILT SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKING TOWARD SRN LWR MI IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SOLUTION COULD BRING A THUNDER THREAT TO THE
AREA BUT CURRENTLY THE GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA SO FCST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AOB 10 KNOTS THEN GO WEST OR SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RIVERS ARE COMFORTABLY BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING. THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM HAD LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON
RIVER LEVELS. PRECIPITATION ON THE WAY FOR SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN WEDNESDAY... SO FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS









000
FXUS63 KGRR 280730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FAIR BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
TOWARD THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO INVOLVE
DETERMINING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN OVERALL SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WILL
MOVE IN FROM WNW TO ESE MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CRITICAL THICKNESS TOOLS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF
LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FCST AREA BUT THERMAL
PROFILES WILL MOST LIKELY MODERATE SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH FOR PLAIN
RAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FCST
AREA.

MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHT WET
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST OF OUR
FCST AREA WITH RAPID MELTING AS MAX TEMPS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY ACROSS
RELATIVELY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA MAY RECEIVE
UP TO AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IF PCPN TYPE STAYS MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. PCPN WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY BUT IT WILL
REMAIN UNSEASOSONABLY COLD. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S IN SPITE OF ALL THE SUN AFTER A VERY COLD
START TO THE DAY TODAY. FAIR AND COLD WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE PCPN GRADUALLY MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY AND PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A CLIPPER MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY... BUT THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TRACK IS STILL A
LITTLE UNCLEAR. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN PRECIP TYPES... WITH A
POTENTIAL SWATH OF 1-3 INCHES NORTH OF THE SFC LOW AND MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FALLING ALONG AND SOUTH SOUTH OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THE MAIN SNOW THREAT MONDAY NIGHT IS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 WITH A
LOW TRACK FROM ROUGHLY MKE TO DETROIT.

A SFC HIGH THAT COMES IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LEADS TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WARM
ADVECTION KICKS IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND THESE TWO
DAYS SHOULD BE THE MILDEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO PERHAPS AROUND 60. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE STATE.

FRIDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY INTERESTING AS THE ECWMF SHOWS A NEGATIVE
TILT SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKING TOWARD SRN LWR MI IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SOLUTION COULD BRING A THUNDER THREAT TO THE
AREA BUT CURRENTLY THE GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA SO FCST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AOB 10 KNOTS THEN GO WEST OR SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RIVERS ARE COMFORTABLY BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING. THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM HAD LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON
RIVER LEVELS. PRECIPITATION ON THE WAY FOR SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN WEDNESDAY... SO FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 280343
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1143 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IT LOOKS LIKE WINTER ISN`T QUITE DONE WITH WEST MICHIGAN YET.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
POTENTIALLY PUTTING DOWN AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF GRAND
RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY MID WEEK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SUNDAY.

THE 12Z MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY/S MODELS VIS A VIS
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
ECMWF/GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PCPN WILL BEGIN CLOSER TO
NOON ACROSS THE CWA RATHER THAN EARLIER SUNDAY MORNING. WE LOOKED AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND IT CERTAINLY
APPEARS AS THOUGH PCPN WILL BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND THEN
MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO RAIN OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE NORTHEAST 6
COUNTIES PLUS MONTCALM MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW PERSIST A BIT LONGER. EVEN
THERE THOUGH WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TOWARD 40 LATE IN THE DAY THE
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED. IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO BUT OTHER LOCATIONS MAY
NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS. DRIVING THIS SYSTEM IS A
COMPACT BUT FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY INITIALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM
WHICH WILL LEAD TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF THE COLUMN BUT LIFT FROM
THE SHORT WAVE WILL AID IN PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THE PCPN WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.

OUTSIDE OF SUNDAY...TONIGHT LOOKS VERY COLD AS WINDS DIMINISH AND
SKIES CLEAR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR 0 OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AND
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS MID WEEK. THAT MEANS THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S TUESDAY THEN CLIMB TO NEAR
60 BY NEXT FRIDAY.

AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS WE EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SYSTEMS
MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THIS OCCURS DURING THE LING TERM. A
COMPACT LITTLE CLIPPER IS PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN CWA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING MIXED RAIN AND SNOW TO THE CWA. THEN
LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

A BIGGER STORM WITH INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL AFFECT
THE CWA FRIDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY A SOUTH FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. WE/LL LIKELY SEE RAIN DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT WET SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN NORTH OF M-46 BUT THAT/S NOT CERTAIN YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AOB 10 KNOTS THEN GO WEST OR SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RIVERS ARE COMFORTABLY BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING. THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM HAD LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON
RIVER LEVELS. PRECIPITATION ON THE WAY FOR SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN WEDNESDAY... SO FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 280343
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1143 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IT LOOKS LIKE WINTER ISN`T QUITE DONE WITH WEST MICHIGAN YET.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
POTENTIALLY PUTTING DOWN AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF GRAND
RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY MID WEEK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SUNDAY.

THE 12Z MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY/S MODELS VIS A VIS
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
ECMWF/GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PCPN WILL BEGIN CLOSER TO
NOON ACROSS THE CWA RATHER THAN EARLIER SUNDAY MORNING. WE LOOKED AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND IT CERTAINLY
APPEARS AS THOUGH PCPN WILL BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND THEN
MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO RAIN OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE NORTHEAST 6
COUNTIES PLUS MONTCALM MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW PERSIST A BIT LONGER. EVEN
THERE THOUGH WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TOWARD 40 LATE IN THE DAY THE
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED. IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO BUT OTHER LOCATIONS MAY
NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS. DRIVING THIS SYSTEM IS A
COMPACT BUT FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY INITIALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM
WHICH WILL LEAD TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF THE COLUMN BUT LIFT FROM
THE SHORT WAVE WILL AID IN PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THE PCPN WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.

OUTSIDE OF SUNDAY...TONIGHT LOOKS VERY COLD AS WINDS DIMINISH AND
SKIES CLEAR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR 0 OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AND
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS MID WEEK. THAT MEANS THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S TUESDAY THEN CLIMB TO NEAR
60 BY NEXT FRIDAY.

AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS WE EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SYSTEMS
MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THIS OCCURS DURING THE LING TERM. A
COMPACT LITTLE CLIPPER IS PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN CWA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING MIXED RAIN AND SNOW TO THE CWA. THEN
LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

A BIGGER STORM WITH INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL AFFECT
THE CWA FRIDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY A SOUTH FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. WE/LL LIKELY SEE RAIN DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT WET SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN NORTH OF M-46 BUT THAT/S NOT CERTAIN YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AOB 10 KNOTS THEN GO WEST OR SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RIVERS ARE COMFORTABLY BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING. THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM HAD LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON
RIVER LEVELS. PRECIPITATION ON THE WAY FOR SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN WEDNESDAY... SO FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 272352
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
752 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IT LOOKS LIKE WINTER ISN`T QUITE DONE WITH WEST MICHIGAN YET.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
POTENTIALLY PUTTING DOWN AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF GRAND
RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY MID WEEK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SUNDAY.

THE 12Z MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY/S MODELS VIS A VIS
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
ECMWF/GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PCPN WILL BEGIN CLOSER TO
NOON ACROSS THE CWA RATHER THAN EARLIER SUNDAY MORNING. WE LOOKED AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND IT CERTAINLY
APPEARS AS THOUGH PCPN WILL BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND THEN
MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO RAIN OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE NORTHEAST 6
COUNTIES PLUS MONTCALM MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW PERSIST A BIT LONGER. EVEN
THERE THOUGH WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TOWARD 40 LATE IN THE DAY THE
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED. IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO BUT OTHER LOCATIONS MAY
NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS. DRIVING THIS SYSTEM IS A
COMPACT BUT FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY INITIALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM
WHICH WILL LEAD TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF THE COLUMN BUT LIFT FROM
THE SHORT WAVE WILL AID IN PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THE PCPN WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.

OUTSIDE OF SUNDAY...TONIGHT LOOKS VERY COLD AS WINDS DIMINISH AND
SKIES CLEAR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR 0 OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AND
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS MID WEEK. THAT MEANS THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S TUESDAY THEN CLIMB TO NEAR
60 BY NEXT FRIDAY.

AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS WE EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SYSTEMS
MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THIS OCCURS DURING THE LING TERM. A
COMPACT LITTLE CLIPPER IS PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN CWA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING MIXED RAIN AND SNOW TO THE CWA. THEN
LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

A BIGGER STORM WITH INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL AFFECT
THE CWA FRIDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY A SOUTH FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. WE/LL LIKELY SEE RAIN DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT WET SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN NORTH OF M-46 BUT THAT/S NOT CERTAIN YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS...TURNING NORTH AND DECREASING
TO AROUND 5 KNOTS BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RIVERS ARE COMFORTABLY BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING. THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM HAD LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON
RIVER LEVELS. PRECIPITATION ON THE WAY FOR SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN WEDNESDAY... SO FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 272352
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
752 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IT LOOKS LIKE WINTER ISN`T QUITE DONE WITH WEST MICHIGAN YET.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
POTENTIALLY PUTTING DOWN AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF GRAND
RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY MID WEEK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SUNDAY.

THE 12Z MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY/S MODELS VIS A VIS
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
ECMWF/GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PCPN WILL BEGIN CLOSER TO
NOON ACROSS THE CWA RATHER THAN EARLIER SUNDAY MORNING. WE LOOKED AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND IT CERTAINLY
APPEARS AS THOUGH PCPN WILL BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND THEN
MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO RAIN OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE NORTHEAST 6
COUNTIES PLUS MONTCALM MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW PERSIST A BIT LONGER. EVEN
THERE THOUGH WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TOWARD 40 LATE IN THE DAY THE
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED. IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO BUT OTHER LOCATIONS MAY
NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS. DRIVING THIS SYSTEM IS A
COMPACT BUT FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY INITIALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM
WHICH WILL LEAD TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF THE COLUMN BUT LIFT FROM
THE SHORT WAVE WILL AID IN PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THE PCPN WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.

OUTSIDE OF SUNDAY...TONIGHT LOOKS VERY COLD AS WINDS DIMINISH AND
SKIES CLEAR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR 0 OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AND
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS MID WEEK. THAT MEANS THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S TUESDAY THEN CLIMB TO NEAR
60 BY NEXT FRIDAY.

AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS WE EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SYSTEMS
MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THIS OCCURS DURING THE LING TERM. A
COMPACT LITTLE CLIPPER IS PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN CWA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING MIXED RAIN AND SNOW TO THE CWA. THEN
LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

A BIGGER STORM WITH INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL AFFECT
THE CWA FRIDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY A SOUTH FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. WE/LL LIKELY SEE RAIN DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT WET SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN NORTH OF M-46 BUT THAT/S NOT CERTAIN YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS...TURNING NORTH AND DECREASING
TO AROUND 5 KNOTS BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RIVERS ARE COMFORTABLY BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING. THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM HAD LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON
RIVER LEVELS. PRECIPITATION ON THE WAY FOR SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN WEDNESDAY... SO FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 271929
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IT LOOKS LIKE WINTER ISN`T QUITE DONE WITH WEST MICHIGAN YET.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
POTENTIALLY PUTTING DOWN AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF GRAND
RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY MID WEEK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SUNDAY.

THE 12Z MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY/S MODELS VIS A VIS
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
ECMWF/GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PCPN WILL BEGIN CLOSER TO
NOON ACROSS THE CWA RATHER THAN EARLIER SUNDAY MORNING. WE LOOKED AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND IT CERTAINLY
APPEARS AS THOUGH PCPN WILL BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND THEN
MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO RAIN OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE NORTHEAST 6
COUNTIES PLUS MONTCALM MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW PERSIST A BIT LONGER. EVEN
THERE THOUGH WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TOWARD 40 LATE IN THE DAY THE
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED. IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO BUT OTHER LOCATIONS MAY
NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS. DRIVING THIS SYSTEM IS A
COMPACT BUT FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY INITIALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM
WHICH WILL LEAD TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF THE COLUMN BUT LIFT FROM
THE SHORT WAVE WILL AID IN PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THE PCPN WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.

OUTSIDE OF SUNDAY...TONIGHT LOOKS VERY COLD AS WINDS DIMINISH AND
SKIES CLEAR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR 0 OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AND
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS MID WEEK. THAT MEANS THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S TUESDAY THEN CLIMB TO NEAR
60 BY NEXT FRIDAY.

AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS WE EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SYSTEMS
MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THIS OCCURS DURING THE LING TERM. A
COMPACT LITTLE CLIPPER IS PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN CWA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING MIXED RAIN AND SNOW TO THE CWA. THEN
LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

A BIGGER STORM WITH INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL AFFECT
THE CWA FRIDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY A SOUTH FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. WE/LL LIKELY SEE RAIN DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT WET SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN NORTH OF M-46 BUT THAT/S NOT CERTAIN YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIMITED AVIATION CONCERNS THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE MAIN ITEM OF NOTE WILL BE
GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 12 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS WE MOVE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL OCCUR IN NORTHERLY FLOW INTO TONIGHT...BUT
THAT WILL KEEP THOUGH TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN TAF SITES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RIVERS ARE COMFORTABLY BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING. THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM HAD LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON
RIVER LEVELS. PRECIPITATION ON THE WAY FOR SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN WEDNESDAY... SO FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS











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