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000
FXUS63 KGRR 010312
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1112 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREAS WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
MAINLY DRY.  THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS HOWEVER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWER CHANCES APPEAR TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  IT SHOULD
STAY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A FEW TEMPERATURES NEAR 90.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT WE ARE WATCHING FOG FORMATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. CONDITIONS SO FAR TONIGHT ARE HIGHLY
VARIABLE RANGING FROM A 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY IN A FEW SPOTS TO 10
MILES IN LANSING. NOT CONVINCED AT THIS POINT THAT ALL AREAS ARE
GOING TO SEE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES TO THE POINT WHERE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED. AN ADVISORY IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THOUGH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH RIGHT NOW.

TWO THINGS THAT MAY CHANGE CONDITIONS JUST A BIT TONIGHT ARE WINDS
IN THE 1000-3000FT LAYER THAT INCREASE TO 10-20 KNOTS. THIS MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO TEMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING TO THE POINT WHERE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DOES NOT FORM. THE OTHER FACTOR IS THAT WE
HAD A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HAVE TENDED
TO DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER JUST A BIT.

BOTTOM LINE...AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH THAT MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO TUESDAY...BUT THEN IT
SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN.  A SHORT WAVE TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE RIDGE
WED/WED NIGHT THAT COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE.  THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
IN THE MEANTIME...BUT ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH.  AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A BIT MORE MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO LESS AREAS OF DENSE
FOG.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE MAINLY IN THE MID 80S...
WITH A FEW UPPER 80S WELL INLAND.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE INDIANA
UPPER LOW MAY CREEP INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE 20
POPS IN CASE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MOVES IN.  INCREASED MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS PRODUCE A
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE INTO WEDNESDAY COULD PRODUCE DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 131.  THEN THERE IS NOT GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW SUCCESSFUL THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BUT IT
WOULD SEEM THAT THIS RIDGE WEAKNESS AND SHORT WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO AN
MCS MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.  ADDED CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS MCS TO IMPACT THE NW CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
DAILY RISK OF RAIN IS QUITE LOW WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED.

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH AND A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND STALLING.
THIS ILL-DEFINED SFC BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE SITUATED NW-SE OR N-S
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG IT... OR THE
LAKE BREEZE... COULD FOCUS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS.

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE RIDGE DOES BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT ON LABOR DAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE SHOWER AND TSTM POTENTIAL MAY
INCREASE AS THIS HAPPENS... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHEN
(AND IF) THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 900 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

STRATUS AND FOG WERE WIDESPREAD LAST NIGHT AND EXPECTING SOMEWHAT
OF A REPEAT PERFORMANCE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN
MOST LOCATIONS AT 01Z...WITH SOME MVFR VSBY FOG ALREADY SHOWING
UP. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AGAIN LESS THAN 10 DEGREES F THIS
EVENING AND FOG SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT BY MIDNIGHT.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT IS WILL A LITTLE BIT MORE WIND ALOFT
(10-20KTS AT 1000-2000FT)...AND SOME DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON RESULT IN LESS FOG/STRATUS.

DECIDED TO KEEP WITH THE GOING FORECAST OF EXPECTING THE RETURN OF
IFR CONDITIONS. THINKING WE WILL SEE VISIBILITIES DIP AT LEAST TO
AROUND 1 MILE WITH STRATUS CLOUDS BELOW 1000FT. NOT SURE WE WILL
DROP TO LIFR OR BELOW AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS
POTENTIAL FOR IT.

FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD LIFT FAIRLY QUICK ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

RATHER QUIET REGIME ON THE LAKE WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD.  THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN A BIT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND SSW WINDS SHOULD
PICK UP.  IT CAUSE THE LAKE TO BECOME A BIT ROUGH WITH SOME 2-3 FOOT
WAVES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR A
SHOWER IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION FROM MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS/JK
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 010312
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1112 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREAS WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
MAINLY DRY.  THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS HOWEVER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWER CHANCES APPEAR TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  IT SHOULD
STAY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A FEW TEMPERATURES NEAR 90.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT WE ARE WATCHING FOG FORMATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. CONDITIONS SO FAR TONIGHT ARE HIGHLY
VARIABLE RANGING FROM A 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY IN A FEW SPOTS TO 10
MILES IN LANSING. NOT CONVINCED AT THIS POINT THAT ALL AREAS ARE
GOING TO SEE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES TO THE POINT WHERE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED. AN ADVISORY IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THOUGH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH RIGHT NOW.

TWO THINGS THAT MAY CHANGE CONDITIONS JUST A BIT TONIGHT ARE WINDS
IN THE 1000-3000FT LAYER THAT INCREASE TO 10-20 KNOTS. THIS MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO TEMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING TO THE POINT WHERE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DOES NOT FORM. THE OTHER FACTOR IS THAT WE
HAD A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HAVE TENDED
TO DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER JUST A BIT.

BOTTOM LINE...AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH THAT MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO TUESDAY...BUT THEN IT
SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN.  A SHORT WAVE TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE RIDGE
WED/WED NIGHT THAT COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE.  THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
IN THE MEANTIME...BUT ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH.  AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A BIT MORE MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO LESS AREAS OF DENSE
FOG.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE MAINLY IN THE MID 80S...
WITH A FEW UPPER 80S WELL INLAND.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE INDIANA
UPPER LOW MAY CREEP INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE 20
POPS IN CASE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MOVES IN.  INCREASED MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS PRODUCE A
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE INTO WEDNESDAY COULD PRODUCE DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 131.  THEN THERE IS NOT GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW SUCCESSFUL THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BUT IT
WOULD SEEM THAT THIS RIDGE WEAKNESS AND SHORT WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO AN
MCS MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.  ADDED CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS MCS TO IMPACT THE NW CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
DAILY RISK OF RAIN IS QUITE LOW WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED.

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH AND A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND STALLING.
THIS ILL-DEFINED SFC BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE SITUATED NW-SE OR N-S
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG IT... OR THE
LAKE BREEZE... COULD FOCUS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS.

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE RIDGE DOES BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT ON LABOR DAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE SHOWER AND TSTM POTENTIAL MAY
INCREASE AS THIS HAPPENS... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHEN
(AND IF) THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 900 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

STRATUS AND FOG WERE WIDESPREAD LAST NIGHT AND EXPECTING SOMEWHAT
OF A REPEAT PERFORMANCE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN
MOST LOCATIONS AT 01Z...WITH SOME MVFR VSBY FOG ALREADY SHOWING
UP. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AGAIN LESS THAN 10 DEGREES F THIS
EVENING AND FOG SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT BY MIDNIGHT.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT IS WILL A LITTLE BIT MORE WIND ALOFT
(10-20KTS AT 1000-2000FT)...AND SOME DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON RESULT IN LESS FOG/STRATUS.

DECIDED TO KEEP WITH THE GOING FORECAST OF EXPECTING THE RETURN OF
IFR CONDITIONS. THINKING WE WILL SEE VISIBILITIES DIP AT LEAST TO
AROUND 1 MILE WITH STRATUS CLOUDS BELOW 1000FT. NOT SURE WE WILL
DROP TO LIFR OR BELOW AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS
POTENTIAL FOR IT.

FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD LIFT FAIRLY QUICK ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

RATHER QUIET REGIME ON THE LAKE WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD.  THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN A BIT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND SSW WINDS SHOULD
PICK UP.  IT CAUSE THE LAKE TO BECOME A BIT ROUGH WITH SOME 2-3 FOOT
WAVES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR A
SHOWER IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION FROM MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS/JK
MARINE...JK





000
FXUS63 KGRR 010312
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1112 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREAS WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
MAINLY DRY.  THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS HOWEVER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWER CHANCES APPEAR TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  IT SHOULD
STAY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A FEW TEMPERATURES NEAR 90.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT WE ARE WATCHING FOG FORMATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. CONDITIONS SO FAR TONIGHT ARE HIGHLY
VARIABLE RANGING FROM A 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY IN A FEW SPOTS TO 10
MILES IN LANSING. NOT CONVINCED AT THIS POINT THAT ALL AREAS ARE
GOING TO SEE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES TO THE POINT WHERE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED. AN ADVISORY IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THOUGH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH RIGHT NOW.

TWO THINGS THAT MAY CHANGE CONDITIONS JUST A BIT TONIGHT ARE WINDS
IN THE 1000-3000FT LAYER THAT INCREASE TO 10-20 KNOTS. THIS MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO TEMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING TO THE POINT WHERE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DOES NOT FORM. THE OTHER FACTOR IS THAT WE
HAD A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HAVE TENDED
TO DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER JUST A BIT.

BOTTOM LINE...AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH THAT MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO TUESDAY...BUT THEN IT
SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN.  A SHORT WAVE TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE RIDGE
WED/WED NIGHT THAT COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE.  THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
IN THE MEANTIME...BUT ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH.  AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A BIT MORE MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO LESS AREAS OF DENSE
FOG.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE MAINLY IN THE MID 80S...
WITH A FEW UPPER 80S WELL INLAND.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE INDIANA
UPPER LOW MAY CREEP INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE 20
POPS IN CASE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MOVES IN.  INCREASED MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS PRODUCE A
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE INTO WEDNESDAY COULD PRODUCE DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 131.  THEN THERE IS NOT GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW SUCCESSFUL THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BUT IT
WOULD SEEM THAT THIS RIDGE WEAKNESS AND SHORT WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO AN
MCS MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.  ADDED CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS MCS TO IMPACT THE NW CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
DAILY RISK OF RAIN IS QUITE LOW WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED.

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH AND A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND STALLING.
THIS ILL-DEFINED SFC BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE SITUATED NW-SE OR N-S
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG IT... OR THE
LAKE BREEZE... COULD FOCUS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS.

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE RIDGE DOES BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT ON LABOR DAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE SHOWER AND TSTM POTENTIAL MAY
INCREASE AS THIS HAPPENS... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHEN
(AND IF) THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 900 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

STRATUS AND FOG WERE WIDESPREAD LAST NIGHT AND EXPECTING SOMEWHAT
OF A REPEAT PERFORMANCE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN
MOST LOCATIONS AT 01Z...WITH SOME MVFR VSBY FOG ALREADY SHOWING
UP. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AGAIN LESS THAN 10 DEGREES F THIS
EVENING AND FOG SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT BY MIDNIGHT.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT IS WILL A LITTLE BIT MORE WIND ALOFT
(10-20KTS AT 1000-2000FT)...AND SOME DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON RESULT IN LESS FOG/STRATUS.

DECIDED TO KEEP WITH THE GOING FORECAST OF EXPECTING THE RETURN OF
IFR CONDITIONS. THINKING WE WILL SEE VISIBILITIES DIP AT LEAST TO
AROUND 1 MILE WITH STRATUS CLOUDS BELOW 1000FT. NOT SURE WE WILL
DROP TO LIFR OR BELOW AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS
POTENTIAL FOR IT.

FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD LIFT FAIRLY QUICK ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

RATHER QUIET REGIME ON THE LAKE WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD.  THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN A BIT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND SSW WINDS SHOULD
PICK UP.  IT CAUSE THE LAKE TO BECOME A BIT ROUGH WITH SOME 2-3 FOOT
WAVES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR A
SHOWER IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION FROM MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS/JK
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 010101
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
901 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREAS WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
MAINLY DRY.  THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS HOWEVER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWER CHANCES APPEAR TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  IT SHOULD
STAY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A FEW TEMPERATURES NEAR 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO TUESDAY...BUT THEN IT
SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN.  A SHORT WAVE TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE RIDGE
WED/WED NIGHT THAT COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE.  THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
IN THE MEANTIME...BUT ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH.  AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A BIT MORE MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO LESS AREAS OF DENSE
FOG.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE MAINLY IN THE MID 80S...
WITH A FEW UPPER 80S WELL INLAND.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE INDIANA
UPPER LOW MAY CREEP INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE 20
POPS IN CASE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MOVES IN.  INCREASED MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS PRODUCE A
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE INTO WEDNESDAY COULD PRODUCE DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 131.  THEN THERE IS NOT GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW SUCCESSFUL THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BUT IT
WOULD SEEM THAT THIS RIDGE WEAKNESS AND SHORT WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO AN
MCS MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.  ADDED CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS MCS TO IMPACT THE NW CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
DAILY RISK OF RAIN IS QUITE LOW WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED.

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH AND A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND STALLING.
THIS ILL-DEFINED SFC BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE SITUATED NW-SE OR N-S
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG IT... OR THE
LAKE BREEZE... COULD FOCUS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS.

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE RIDGE DOES BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT ON LABOR DAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE SHOWER AND TSTM POTENTIAL MAY
INCREASE AS THIS HAPPENS... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHEN
(AND IF) THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 900 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

STRATUS AND FOG WERE WIDESPREAD LAST NIGHT AND EXPECTING SOMEWHAT
OF A REPEAT PERFORMANCE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN
MOST LOCATIONS AT 01Z...WITH SOME MVFR VSBY FOG ALREADY SHOWING
UP. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AGAIN LESS THAN 10 DEGREES F THIS
EVENING AND FOG SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT BY MIDNIGHT.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT IS WILL A LITTLE BIT MORE WIND ALOFT
(10-20KTS AT 1000-2000FT)...AND SOME DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON RESULT IN LESS FOG/STRATUS.

DECIDED TO KEEP WITH THE GOING FORECAST OF EXPECTING THE RETURN OF
IFR CONDITIONS. THINKING WE WILL SEE VISIBILITIES DIP AT LEAST TO
AROUND 1 MILE WITH STRATUS CLOUDS BELOW 1000FT. NOT SURE WE WILL
DROP TO LIFR OR BELOW AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS
POTENTIAL FOR IT.

FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD LIFT FAIRLY QUICK ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

RATHER QUIET REGIME ON THE LAKE WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD.  THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN A BIT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND SSW WINDS SHOULD
PICK UP.  IT CAUSE THE LAKE TO BECOME A BIT ROUGH WITH SOME 2-3 FOOT
WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR A
SHOWER IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION FROM MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS/JK
MARINE...JK





000
FXUS63 KGRR 010101
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
901 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREAS WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
MAINLY DRY.  THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS HOWEVER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWER CHANCES APPEAR TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  IT SHOULD
STAY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A FEW TEMPERATURES NEAR 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO TUESDAY...BUT THEN IT
SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN.  A SHORT WAVE TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE RIDGE
WED/WED NIGHT THAT COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE.  THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
IN THE MEANTIME...BUT ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH.  AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A BIT MORE MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO LESS AREAS OF DENSE
FOG.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE MAINLY IN THE MID 80S...
WITH A FEW UPPER 80S WELL INLAND.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE INDIANA
UPPER LOW MAY CREEP INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE 20
POPS IN CASE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MOVES IN.  INCREASED MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS PRODUCE A
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE INTO WEDNESDAY COULD PRODUCE DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 131.  THEN THERE IS NOT GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW SUCCESSFUL THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BUT IT
WOULD SEEM THAT THIS RIDGE WEAKNESS AND SHORT WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO AN
MCS MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.  ADDED CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS MCS TO IMPACT THE NW CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
DAILY RISK OF RAIN IS QUITE LOW WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED.

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH AND A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND STALLING.
THIS ILL-DEFINED SFC BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE SITUATED NW-SE OR N-S
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG IT... OR THE
LAKE BREEZE... COULD FOCUS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS.

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE RIDGE DOES BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT ON LABOR DAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE SHOWER AND TSTM POTENTIAL MAY
INCREASE AS THIS HAPPENS... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHEN
(AND IF) THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 900 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

STRATUS AND FOG WERE WIDESPREAD LAST NIGHT AND EXPECTING SOMEWHAT
OF A REPEAT PERFORMANCE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN
MOST LOCATIONS AT 01Z...WITH SOME MVFR VSBY FOG ALREADY SHOWING
UP. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AGAIN LESS THAN 10 DEGREES F THIS
EVENING AND FOG SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT BY MIDNIGHT.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT IS WILL A LITTLE BIT MORE WIND ALOFT
(10-20KTS AT 1000-2000FT)...AND SOME DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON RESULT IN LESS FOG/STRATUS.

DECIDED TO KEEP WITH THE GOING FORECAST OF EXPECTING THE RETURN OF
IFR CONDITIONS. THINKING WE WILL SEE VISIBILITIES DIP AT LEAST TO
AROUND 1 MILE WITH STRATUS CLOUDS BELOW 1000FT. NOT SURE WE WILL
DROP TO LIFR OR BELOW AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS
POTENTIAL FOR IT.

FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD LIFT FAIRLY QUICK ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

RATHER QUIET REGIME ON THE LAKE WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD.  THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN A BIT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND SSW WINDS SHOULD
PICK UP.  IT CAUSE THE LAKE TO BECOME A BIT ROUGH WITH SOME 2-3 FOOT
WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR A
SHOWER IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION FROM MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS/JK
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 311927
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREAS WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
MAINLY DRY.  THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS HOWEVER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWER CHANCES APPEAR TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  IT SHOULD
STAY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A FEW TEMPERATURES NEAR 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO TUESDAY...BUT THEN IT
SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN.  A SHORT WAVE TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE RIDGE
WED/WED NIGHT THAT COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE.  THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
IN THE MEANTIME...BUT ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH.  AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A BIT MORE MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO LESS AREAS OF DENSE
FOG.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE MAINLY IN THE MID 80S...
WITH A FEW UPPER 80S WELL INLAND.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE INDIANA
UPPER LOW MAY CREEP INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE 20
POPS IN CASE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MOVES IN.  INCREASED MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS PRODUCE A
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE INTO WEDNESDAY COULD PRODUCE DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 131.  THEN THERE IS NOT GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW SUCCESSFUL THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BUT IT
WOULD SEEM THAT THIS RIDGE WEAKNESS AND SHORT WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO AN
MCS MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.  ADDED CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS MCS TO IMPACT THE NW CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
DAILY RISK OF RAIN IS QUITE LOW WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED.

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH AND A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND STALLING.
THIS ILL-DEFINED SFC BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE SITUATED NW-SE OR N-S
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG IT... OR THE
LAKE BREEZE... COULD FOCUS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS.

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE RIDGE DOES BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT ON LABOR DAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE SHOWER AND TSTM POTENTIAL MAY
INCREASE AS THIS HAPPENS... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHEN
(AND IF) THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A REPEAT OF IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE
AS AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPING FOG TONIGHT...SHOWING DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS AND A BIT MORE WIND JUST ABOVE THE SFC. HOWEVER
SINCE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC REGIME AND AIR MASS IS LARGELY
UNCHANGED... DECIDED TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND FCST IFR FOG AT
ALL THE TAF SITES FROM 09Z TO 14Z. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE MORNING DUE TO THE
SHALLOW NATURE OF THE FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

RATHER QUIET REGIME ON THE LAKE WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD.  THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN A BIT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND SSW WINDS SHOULD
PICK UP.  IT CAUSE THE LAKE TO BECOME A BIT ROUGH WITH SOME 2-3 FOOT
WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR A
SHOWER IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION FROM MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS/JK
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 311927
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREAS WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
MAINLY DRY.  THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS HOWEVER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWER CHANCES APPEAR TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  IT SHOULD
STAY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A FEW TEMPERATURES NEAR 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO TUESDAY...BUT THEN IT
SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN.  A SHORT WAVE TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE RIDGE
WED/WED NIGHT THAT COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE.  THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
IN THE MEANTIME...BUT ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH.  AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A BIT MORE MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO LESS AREAS OF DENSE
FOG.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE MAINLY IN THE MID 80S...
WITH A FEW UPPER 80S WELL INLAND.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE INDIANA
UPPER LOW MAY CREEP INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE 20
POPS IN CASE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MOVES IN.  INCREASED MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS PRODUCE A
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE INTO WEDNESDAY COULD PRODUCE DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 131.  THEN THERE IS NOT GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW SUCCESSFUL THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BUT IT
WOULD SEEM THAT THIS RIDGE WEAKNESS AND SHORT WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO AN
MCS MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.  ADDED CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS MCS TO IMPACT THE NW CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
DAILY RISK OF RAIN IS QUITE LOW WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED.

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH AND A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND STALLING.
THIS ILL-DEFINED SFC BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE SITUATED NW-SE OR N-S
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG IT... OR THE
LAKE BREEZE... COULD FOCUS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS.

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE RIDGE DOES BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT ON LABOR DAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE SHOWER AND TSTM POTENTIAL MAY
INCREASE AS THIS HAPPENS... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHEN
(AND IF) THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A REPEAT OF IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE
AS AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPING FOG TONIGHT...SHOWING DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS AND A BIT MORE WIND JUST ABOVE THE SFC. HOWEVER
SINCE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC REGIME AND AIR MASS IS LARGELY
UNCHANGED... DECIDED TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND FCST IFR FOG AT
ALL THE TAF SITES FROM 09Z TO 14Z. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE MORNING DUE TO THE
SHALLOW NATURE OF THE FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

RATHER QUIET REGIME ON THE LAKE WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD.  THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN A BIT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND SSW WINDS SHOULD
PICK UP.  IT CAUSE THE LAKE TO BECOME A BIT ROUGH WITH SOME 2-3 FOOT
WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR A
SHOWER IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION FROM MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS/JK
MARINE...JK





000
FXUS63 KGRR 311756
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS MORNING WITH FAIR AND WARM
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND BUT MOST PLACES WILL
STAY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FOG CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN SPACE AND TIME WHICH IS
TYPICAL IN THIS SITUATION WHERE LOW STRATUS IS ALSO PRESENT. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG
FORM AND PERSIST...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING. EXPECT MORE
OF THE SAME TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RH PROFILES AND WINDS ARE
SIMILAR.

AS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STORMS TO FIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE MOVES UP
FROM THE SOUTH. DESPITE OVERALL RIDGING IN CONTROL...THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING A SMALL UPPER LOW...APPARENTLY THE
REMNANT OR REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOWS THAT PINCHED OFF FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WERE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS A COUPLE DAYS AGO.
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND POPS PRETTY CLOSELY ON TUESDAY. DECIDED TO
HAVE WEDNESDAY DRY AS THE REMNANT LOW IS OUT OF THE PICTURE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LATE THIS WEEK AND
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES DAILY
WITH MINS IN THE 60S. IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER HUMID WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S.

DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE THIS WEEK WHEN INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

NO STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS EXIST FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
OCCUR THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FCST PERIOD BUT MESOSCALE PROCESSES
SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A REPEAT OF IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE
AS AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPING FOG TONIGHT...SHOWING DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS AND A BIT MORE WIND JUST ABOVE THE SFC. HOWEVER
SINCE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC REGIME AND AIR MASS IS LARGELY
UNCHANGED... DECIDED TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND FCST IFR FOG AT
ALL THE TAF SITES FROM 09Z TO 14Z. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE MORNING DUE TO THE
SHALLOW NATURE OF THE FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...OSTUNO




000
FXUS63 KGRR 311756
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS MORNING WITH FAIR AND WARM
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND BUT MOST PLACES WILL
STAY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FOG CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN SPACE AND TIME WHICH IS
TYPICAL IN THIS SITUATION WHERE LOW STRATUS IS ALSO PRESENT. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG
FORM AND PERSIST...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING. EXPECT MORE
OF THE SAME TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RH PROFILES AND WINDS ARE
SIMILAR.

AS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STORMS TO FIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE MOVES UP
FROM THE SOUTH. DESPITE OVERALL RIDGING IN CONTROL...THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING A SMALL UPPER LOW...APPARENTLY THE
REMNANT OR REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOWS THAT PINCHED OFF FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WERE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS A COUPLE DAYS AGO.
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND POPS PRETTY CLOSELY ON TUESDAY. DECIDED TO
HAVE WEDNESDAY DRY AS THE REMNANT LOW IS OUT OF THE PICTURE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LATE THIS WEEK AND
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES DAILY
WITH MINS IN THE 60S. IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER HUMID WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S.

DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE THIS WEEK WHEN INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

NO STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS EXIST FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
OCCUR THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FCST PERIOD BUT MESOSCALE PROCESSES
SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A REPEAT OF IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE
AS AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPING FOG TONIGHT...SHOWING DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS AND A BIT MORE WIND JUST ABOVE THE SFC. HOWEVER
SINCE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC REGIME AND AIR MASS IS LARGELY
UNCHANGED... DECIDED TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND FCST IFR FOG AT
ALL THE TAF SITES FROM 09Z TO 14Z. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE MORNING DUE TO THE
SHALLOW NATURE OF THE FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 311756
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS MORNING WITH FAIR AND WARM
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND BUT MOST PLACES WILL
STAY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FOG CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN SPACE AND TIME WHICH IS
TYPICAL IN THIS SITUATION WHERE LOW STRATUS IS ALSO PRESENT. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG
FORM AND PERSIST...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING. EXPECT MORE
OF THE SAME TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RH PROFILES AND WINDS ARE
SIMILAR.

AS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STORMS TO FIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE MOVES UP
FROM THE SOUTH. DESPITE OVERALL RIDGING IN CONTROL...THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING A SMALL UPPER LOW...APPARENTLY THE
REMNANT OR REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOWS THAT PINCHED OFF FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WERE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS A COUPLE DAYS AGO.
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND POPS PRETTY CLOSELY ON TUESDAY. DECIDED TO
HAVE WEDNESDAY DRY AS THE REMNANT LOW IS OUT OF THE PICTURE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LATE THIS WEEK AND
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES DAILY
WITH MINS IN THE 60S. IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER HUMID WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S.

DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE THIS WEEK WHEN INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

NO STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS EXIST FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
OCCUR THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FCST PERIOD BUT MESOSCALE PROCESSES
SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A REPEAT OF IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE
AS AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPING FOG TONIGHT...SHOWING DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS AND A BIT MORE WIND JUST ABOVE THE SFC. HOWEVER
SINCE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC REGIME AND AIR MASS IS LARGELY
UNCHANGED... DECIDED TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND FCST IFR FOG AT
ALL THE TAF SITES FROM 09Z TO 14Z. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE MORNING DUE TO THE
SHALLOW NATURE OF THE FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 311756
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS MORNING WITH FAIR AND WARM
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND BUT MOST PLACES WILL
STAY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FOG CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN SPACE AND TIME WHICH IS
TYPICAL IN THIS SITUATION WHERE LOW STRATUS IS ALSO PRESENT. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG
FORM AND PERSIST...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING. EXPECT MORE
OF THE SAME TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RH PROFILES AND WINDS ARE
SIMILAR.

AS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STORMS TO FIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE MOVES UP
FROM THE SOUTH. DESPITE OVERALL RIDGING IN CONTROL...THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING A SMALL UPPER LOW...APPARENTLY THE
REMNANT OR REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOWS THAT PINCHED OFF FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WERE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS A COUPLE DAYS AGO.
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND POPS PRETTY CLOSELY ON TUESDAY. DECIDED TO
HAVE WEDNESDAY DRY AS THE REMNANT LOW IS OUT OF THE PICTURE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LATE THIS WEEK AND
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES DAILY
WITH MINS IN THE 60S. IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER HUMID WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S.

DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE THIS WEEK WHEN INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

NO STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS EXIST FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
OCCUR THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FCST PERIOD BUT MESOSCALE PROCESSES
SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A REPEAT OF IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE
AS AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPING FOG TONIGHT...SHOWING DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS AND A BIT MORE WIND JUST ABOVE THE SFC. HOWEVER
SINCE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC REGIME AND AIR MASS IS LARGELY
UNCHANGED... DECIDED TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND FCST IFR FOG AT
ALL THE TAF SITES FROM 09Z TO 14Z. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE MORNING DUE TO THE
SHALLOW NATURE OF THE FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...OSTUNO




000
FXUS63 KGRR 311148
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
748 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS MORNING WITH FAIR AND WARM
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND BUT MOST PLACES WILL
STAY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FOG CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN SPACE AND TIME WHICH IS
TYPICAL IN THIS SITUATION WHERE LOW STRATUS IS ALSO PRESENT. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG
FORM AND PERSIST...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING. EXPECT MORE
OF THE SAME TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RH PROFILES AND WINDS ARE
SIMILAR.

AS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STORMS TO FIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE MOVES UP
FROM THE SOUTH. DESPITE OVERALL RIDGING IN CONTROL...THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING A SMALL UPPER LOW...APPARENTLY THE
REMNANT OR REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOWS THAT PINCHED OFF FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WERE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS A COUPLE DAYS AGO.
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND POPS PRETTY CLOSELY ON TUESDAY. DECIDED TO
HAVE WEDNESDAY DRY AS THE REMNANT LOW IS OUT OF THE PICTURE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LATE THIS WEEK AND
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES DAILY
WITH MINS IN THE 60S. IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER HUMID WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S.

DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE THIS WEEK WHEN INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

NO STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS EXIST FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
OCCUR THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FCST PERIOD BUT MESOSCALE PROCESSES
SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY CLEARING OUT THIS MORNING. AREAS
OF IFR AND LIFR SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY 18Z.
EXPECT MORE FOG TO FORM TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR ONCE
AGAIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BLO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ043>046-
     050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 311148
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
748 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS MORNING WITH FAIR AND WARM
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND BUT MOST PLACES WILL
STAY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FOG CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN SPACE AND TIME WHICH IS
TYPICAL IN THIS SITUATION WHERE LOW STRATUS IS ALSO PRESENT. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG
FORM AND PERSIST...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING. EXPECT MORE
OF THE SAME TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RH PROFILES AND WINDS ARE
SIMILAR.

AS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STORMS TO FIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE MOVES UP
FROM THE SOUTH. DESPITE OVERALL RIDGING IN CONTROL...THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING A SMALL UPPER LOW...APPARENTLY THE
REMNANT OR REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOWS THAT PINCHED OFF FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WERE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS A COUPLE DAYS AGO.
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND POPS PRETTY CLOSELY ON TUESDAY. DECIDED TO
HAVE WEDNESDAY DRY AS THE REMNANT LOW IS OUT OF THE PICTURE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LATE THIS WEEK AND
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES DAILY
WITH MINS IN THE 60S. IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER HUMID WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S.

DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE THIS WEEK WHEN INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

NO STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS EXIST FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
OCCUR THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FCST PERIOD BUT MESOSCALE PROCESSES
SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY CLEARING OUT THIS MORNING. AREAS
OF IFR AND LIFR SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY 18Z.
EXPECT MORE FOG TO FORM TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR ONCE
AGAIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BLO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ043>046-
     050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...OSTUNO




000
FXUS63 KGRR 311148
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
748 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS MORNING WITH FAIR AND WARM
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND BUT MOST PLACES WILL
STAY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FOG CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN SPACE AND TIME WHICH IS
TYPICAL IN THIS SITUATION WHERE LOW STRATUS IS ALSO PRESENT. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG
FORM AND PERSIST...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING. EXPECT MORE
OF THE SAME TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RH PROFILES AND WINDS ARE
SIMILAR.

AS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STORMS TO FIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE MOVES UP
FROM THE SOUTH. DESPITE OVERALL RIDGING IN CONTROL...THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING A SMALL UPPER LOW...APPARENTLY THE
REMNANT OR REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOWS THAT PINCHED OFF FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WERE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS A COUPLE DAYS AGO.
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND POPS PRETTY CLOSELY ON TUESDAY. DECIDED TO
HAVE WEDNESDAY DRY AS THE REMNANT LOW IS OUT OF THE PICTURE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LATE THIS WEEK AND
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES DAILY
WITH MINS IN THE 60S. IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER HUMID WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S.

DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE THIS WEEK WHEN INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

NO STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS EXIST FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
OCCUR THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FCST PERIOD BUT MESOSCALE PROCESSES
SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY CLEARING OUT THIS MORNING. AREAS
OF IFR AND LIFR SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY 18Z.
EXPECT MORE FOG TO FORM TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR ONCE
AGAIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BLO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ043>046-
     050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 311148
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
748 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS MORNING WITH FAIR AND WARM
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND BUT MOST PLACES WILL
STAY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FOG CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN SPACE AND TIME WHICH IS
TYPICAL IN THIS SITUATION WHERE LOW STRATUS IS ALSO PRESENT. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG
FORM AND PERSIST...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING. EXPECT MORE
OF THE SAME TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RH PROFILES AND WINDS ARE
SIMILAR.

AS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STORMS TO FIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE MOVES UP
FROM THE SOUTH. DESPITE OVERALL RIDGING IN CONTROL...THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING A SMALL UPPER LOW...APPARENTLY THE
REMNANT OR REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOWS THAT PINCHED OFF FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WERE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS A COUPLE DAYS AGO.
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND POPS PRETTY CLOSELY ON TUESDAY. DECIDED TO
HAVE WEDNESDAY DRY AS THE REMNANT LOW IS OUT OF THE PICTURE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LATE THIS WEEK AND
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES DAILY
WITH MINS IN THE 60S. IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER HUMID WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S.

DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE THIS WEEK WHEN INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

NO STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS EXIST FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
OCCUR THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FCST PERIOD BUT MESOSCALE PROCESSES
SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY CLEARING OUT THIS MORNING. AREAS
OF IFR AND LIFR SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY 18Z.
EXPECT MORE FOG TO FORM TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR ONCE
AGAIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BLO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ043>046-
     050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...OSTUNO




000
FXUS63 KGRR 310727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS MORNING WITH FAIR AND WARM
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND BUT MOST PLACES WILL
STAY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FOG CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN SPACE AND TIME WHICH IS
TYPICAL IN THIS SITUATION WHERE LOW STRATUS IS ALSO PRESENT. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG
FORM AND PERSIST...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING. EXPECT MORE
OF THE SAME TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RH PROFILES AND WINDS ARE
SIMILAR.

AS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STORMS TO FIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE MOVES UP
FROM THE SOUTH. DESPITE OVERALL RIDGING IN CONTROL...THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING A SMALL UPPER LOW...APPARENTLY THE
REMNANT OR REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOWS THAT PINCHED OFF FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WERE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS A COUPLE DAYS AGO.
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND POPS PRETTY CLOSELY ON TUESDAY. DECIDED TO
HAVE WEDNESDAY DRY AS THE REMNANT LOW IS OUT OF THE PICTURE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LATE THIS WEEK AND
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES DAILY
WITH MINS IN THE 60S. IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER HUMID WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S.

DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE THIS WEEK WHEN INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

NO STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS EXIST FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
OCCUR THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FCST PERIOD BUT MESOSCALE PROCESSES
SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONDITIONS GENERALLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR AND CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO PRIMARILY IFR/LIFR THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS AS FOG BECOMES MORE DENSE AND
WIDESPREAD.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING
AS FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AND CIGS IMPROVE. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR THEN CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ043>046-
     050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...OSTUNO




000
FXUS63 KGRR 310727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS MORNING WITH FAIR AND WARM
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND BUT MOST PLACES WILL
STAY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FOG CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN SPACE AND TIME WHICH IS
TYPICAL IN THIS SITUATION WHERE LOW STRATUS IS ALSO PRESENT. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG
FORM AND PERSIST...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING. EXPECT MORE
OF THE SAME TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RH PROFILES AND WINDS ARE
SIMILAR.

AS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STORMS TO FIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE MOVES UP
FROM THE SOUTH. DESPITE OVERALL RIDGING IN CONTROL...THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING A SMALL UPPER LOW...APPARENTLY THE
REMNANT OR REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOWS THAT PINCHED OFF FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WERE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS A COUPLE DAYS AGO.
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND POPS PRETTY CLOSELY ON TUESDAY. DECIDED TO
HAVE WEDNESDAY DRY AS THE REMNANT LOW IS OUT OF THE PICTURE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LATE THIS WEEK AND
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES DAILY
WITH MINS IN THE 60S. IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER HUMID WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S.

DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE THIS WEEK WHEN INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

NO STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS EXIST FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
OCCUR THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FCST PERIOD BUT MESOSCALE PROCESSES
SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONDITIONS GENERALLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR AND CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO PRIMARILY IFR/LIFR THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS AS FOG BECOMES MORE DENSE AND
WIDESPREAD.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING
AS FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AND CIGS IMPROVE. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR THEN CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ043>046-
     050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 310514
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
114 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BECOME VERY WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE TIME DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM...BUT THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN TIER AS
FOG IS QUICKLY BECOMING DENSE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO
OVERNIGHT. WILL WATCH THE NORTHERN TIER TO SEE IF THEY WILL NEED
INCLUSION AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EACH
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOWER/STORM CHCS FOR TUE.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THUS FAR WITH A LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA...AND THE
DECENT THICKNESS OF THE STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS ARE
TRYING TO MIX OUT AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR AS THE MOISTURE THICKNESS
DIMINISHES. WE ARE ALSO SEEING A FEATURE COME IN FROM THE NW THAT
LOOKS TO HELP MORE WITH DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVER. WE EXPECT MORE
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH MID EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS START TO
REFORM AND SOME FOG DEVELOPS IN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT WIND
REGIME.

WE EXPECT THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS TO MIX OUT A BIT QUICKER ON MON AS
IT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE. WE WILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF ANY CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 80S WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C.

FOG POTENTIAL MON NIGHT LOOKS TO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS THIS MORNING
OR WHAT IS EXPECTED MON MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER KEEPING THINGS MIXED A LITTLE BETTER...AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE NOW WILL HAVE MIXED OUT BETTER ON MON AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SMALL CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUE. THE MODELS ARE ALL
HOLDING ON TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE ACROSS INDIANA THAT WAS LEFT BY THE
CURRENTLY DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH
INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA ALONG WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE ON
A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. CAPE PROFILES ON FCST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
LIMITED AS ARE WIND FIELDS ALOFT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
LABOR DAY WEEKEND DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
U.S. FEATURING A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE BULK
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS OR
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING EACH DAY.

WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE... PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE FROM MESO/MICRO SCALE
EFFECTS SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS/STAGNANT PATTERN AND LONGER NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONDITIONS GENERALLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR AND CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO PRIMARILY IFR/LIFR THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS AS FOG BECOMES MORE DENSE AND
WIDESPREAD.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING
AS FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AND CIGS IMPROVE. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR THEN CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK FOR
MARINE INTERESTS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH MON/THU-FRI LOOKING LIKE WINDS COULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH A VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE THOSE DAYS.

WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME FOG ISSUES IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ043>046-
     050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KGRR 310514
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
114 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BECOME VERY WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE TIME DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM...BUT THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN TIER AS
FOG IS QUICKLY BECOMING DENSE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO
OVERNIGHT. WILL WATCH THE NORTHERN TIER TO SEE IF THEY WILL NEED
INCLUSION AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EACH
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOWER/STORM CHCS FOR TUE.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THUS FAR WITH A LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA...AND THE
DECENT THICKNESS OF THE STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS ARE
TRYING TO MIX OUT AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR AS THE MOISTURE THICKNESS
DIMINISHES. WE ARE ALSO SEEING A FEATURE COME IN FROM THE NW THAT
LOOKS TO HELP MORE WITH DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVER. WE EXPECT MORE
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH MID EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS START TO
REFORM AND SOME FOG DEVELOPS IN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT WIND
REGIME.

WE EXPECT THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS TO MIX OUT A BIT QUICKER ON MON AS
IT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE. WE WILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF ANY CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 80S WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C.

FOG POTENTIAL MON NIGHT LOOKS TO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS THIS MORNING
OR WHAT IS EXPECTED MON MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER KEEPING THINGS MIXED A LITTLE BETTER...AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE NOW WILL HAVE MIXED OUT BETTER ON MON AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SMALL CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUE. THE MODELS ARE ALL
HOLDING ON TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE ACROSS INDIANA THAT WAS LEFT BY THE
CURRENTLY DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH
INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA ALONG WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE ON
A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. CAPE PROFILES ON FCST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
LIMITED AS ARE WIND FIELDS ALOFT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
LABOR DAY WEEKEND DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
U.S. FEATURING A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE BULK
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS OR
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING EACH DAY.

WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE... PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE FROM MESO/MICRO SCALE
EFFECTS SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS/STAGNANT PATTERN AND LONGER NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONDITIONS GENERALLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR AND CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO PRIMARILY IFR/LIFR THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS AS FOG BECOMES MORE DENSE AND
WIDESPREAD.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING
AS FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AND CIGS IMPROVE. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR THEN CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK FOR
MARINE INTERESTS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH MON/THU-FRI LOOKING LIKE WINDS COULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH A VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE THOSE DAYS.

WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME FOG ISSUES IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ043>046-
     050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 310514
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
114 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BECOME VERY WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE TIME DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM...BUT THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN TIER AS
FOG IS QUICKLY BECOMING DENSE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO
OVERNIGHT. WILL WATCH THE NORTHERN TIER TO SEE IF THEY WILL NEED
INCLUSION AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EACH
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOWER/STORM CHCS FOR TUE.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THUS FAR WITH A LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA...AND THE
DECENT THICKNESS OF THE STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS ARE
TRYING TO MIX OUT AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR AS THE MOISTURE THICKNESS
DIMINISHES. WE ARE ALSO SEEING A FEATURE COME IN FROM THE NW THAT
LOOKS TO HELP MORE WITH DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVER. WE EXPECT MORE
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH MID EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS START TO
REFORM AND SOME FOG DEVELOPS IN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT WIND
REGIME.

WE EXPECT THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS TO MIX OUT A BIT QUICKER ON MON AS
IT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE. WE WILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF ANY CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 80S WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C.

FOG POTENTIAL MON NIGHT LOOKS TO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS THIS MORNING
OR WHAT IS EXPECTED MON MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER KEEPING THINGS MIXED A LITTLE BETTER...AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE NOW WILL HAVE MIXED OUT BETTER ON MON AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SMALL CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUE. THE MODELS ARE ALL
HOLDING ON TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE ACROSS INDIANA THAT WAS LEFT BY THE
CURRENTLY DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH
INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA ALONG WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE ON
A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. CAPE PROFILES ON FCST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
LIMITED AS ARE WIND FIELDS ALOFT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
LABOR DAY WEEKEND DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
U.S. FEATURING A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE BULK
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS OR
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING EACH DAY.

WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE... PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE FROM MESO/MICRO SCALE
EFFECTS SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS/STAGNANT PATTERN AND LONGER NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONDITIONS GENERALLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR AND CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO PRIMARILY IFR/LIFR THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS AS FOG BECOMES MORE DENSE AND
WIDESPREAD.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING
AS FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AND CIGS IMPROVE. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR THEN CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK FOR
MARINE INTERESTS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH MON/THU-FRI LOOKING LIKE WINDS COULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH A VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE THOSE DAYS.

WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME FOG ISSUES IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ043>046-
     050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 310426
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1226 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BECOME VERY WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE TIME DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM...BUT THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NOW ABOUT 5 DEGREES F OR LESS AS OF
930PM...AND CORRESPONDINGLY FOG IS ALREADY FORMING. VISIBILITIES
APPROACHING 1 MILE ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL
SITES...WITH STRATUS BELOW 1000FT SHOWING UP AS WELL.

GIVEN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT
AHEAD OF US...THINKING THE GOING FORECAST OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPING IS SOLID. THREAT FOR DENSE FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HOIST ANY HEADLINE YET.
WE WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EACH
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOWER/STORM CHCS FOR TUE.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THUS FAR WITH A LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA...AND THE
DECENT THICKNESS OF THE STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS ARE
TRYING TO MIX OUT AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR AS THE MOISTURE THICKNESS
DIMINISHES. WE ARE ALSO SEEING A FEATURE COME IN FROM THE NW THAT
LOOKS TO HELP MORE WITH DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVER. WE EXPECT MORE
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH MID EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS START TO
REFORM AND SOME FOG DEVELOPS IN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT WIND
REGIME.

WE EXPECT THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS TO MIX OUT A BIT QUICKER ON MON AS
IT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE. WE WILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF ANY CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 80S WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C.

FOG POTENTIAL MON NIGHT LOOKS TO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS THIS MORNING
OR WHAT IS EXPECTED MON MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER KEEPING THINGS MIXED A LITTLE BETTER...AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE NOW WILL HAVE MIXED OUT BETTER ON MON AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SMALL CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUE. THE MODELS ARE ALL
HOLDING ON TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE ACROSS INDIANA THAT WAS LEFT BY THE
CURRENTLY DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH
INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA ALONG WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE ON
A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. CAPE PROFILES ON FCST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
LIMITED AS ARE WIND FIELDS ALOFT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
LABOR DAY WEEKEND DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
U.S. FEATURING A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE BULK
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS OR
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING EACH DAY.

WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE... PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE FROM MESO/MICRO SCALE
EFFECTS SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS/STAGNANT PATTERN AND LONGER NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONDITIONS GENERALLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR AND CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO PRIMARILY IFR/LIFR THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS AS FOG BECOMES MORE DENSE AND
WIDESPREAD.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING
AS FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AND CIGS IMPROVE. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR THEN CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK FOR
MARINE INTERESTS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH MON/THU-FRI LOOKING LIKE WINDS COULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH A VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE THOSE DAYS.

WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME FOG ISSUES IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 310426
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1226 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BECOME VERY WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE TIME DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM...BUT THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NOW ABOUT 5 DEGREES F OR LESS AS OF
930PM...AND CORRESPONDINGLY FOG IS ALREADY FORMING. VISIBILITIES
APPROACHING 1 MILE ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL
SITES...WITH STRATUS BELOW 1000FT SHOWING UP AS WELL.

GIVEN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT
AHEAD OF US...THINKING THE GOING FORECAST OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPING IS SOLID. THREAT FOR DENSE FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HOIST ANY HEADLINE YET.
WE WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EACH
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOWER/STORM CHCS FOR TUE.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THUS FAR WITH A LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA...AND THE
DECENT THICKNESS OF THE STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS ARE
TRYING TO MIX OUT AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR AS THE MOISTURE THICKNESS
DIMINISHES. WE ARE ALSO SEEING A FEATURE COME IN FROM THE NW THAT
LOOKS TO HELP MORE WITH DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVER. WE EXPECT MORE
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH MID EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS START TO
REFORM AND SOME FOG DEVELOPS IN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT WIND
REGIME.

WE EXPECT THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS TO MIX OUT A BIT QUICKER ON MON AS
IT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE. WE WILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF ANY CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 80S WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C.

FOG POTENTIAL MON NIGHT LOOKS TO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS THIS MORNING
OR WHAT IS EXPECTED MON MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER KEEPING THINGS MIXED A LITTLE BETTER...AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE NOW WILL HAVE MIXED OUT BETTER ON MON AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SMALL CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUE. THE MODELS ARE ALL
HOLDING ON TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE ACROSS INDIANA THAT WAS LEFT BY THE
CURRENTLY DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH
INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA ALONG WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE ON
A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. CAPE PROFILES ON FCST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
LIMITED AS ARE WIND FIELDS ALOFT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
LABOR DAY WEEKEND DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
U.S. FEATURING A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE BULK
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS OR
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING EACH DAY.

WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE... PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE FROM MESO/MICRO SCALE
EFFECTS SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS/STAGNANT PATTERN AND LONGER NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONDITIONS GENERALLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR AND CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO PRIMARILY IFR/LIFR THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS AS FOG BECOMES MORE DENSE AND
WIDESPREAD.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING
AS FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AND CIGS IMPROVE. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR THEN CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK FOR
MARINE INTERESTS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH MON/THU-FRI LOOKING LIKE WINDS COULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH A VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE THOSE DAYS.

WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME FOG ISSUES IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KGRR 310426
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1226 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BECOME VERY WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE TIME DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM...BUT THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NOW ABOUT 5 DEGREES F OR LESS AS OF
930PM...AND CORRESPONDINGLY FOG IS ALREADY FORMING. VISIBILITIES
APPROACHING 1 MILE ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL
SITES...WITH STRATUS BELOW 1000FT SHOWING UP AS WELL.

GIVEN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT
AHEAD OF US...THINKING THE GOING FORECAST OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPING IS SOLID. THREAT FOR DENSE FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HOIST ANY HEADLINE YET.
WE WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EACH
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOWER/STORM CHCS FOR TUE.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THUS FAR WITH A LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA...AND THE
DECENT THICKNESS OF THE STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS ARE
TRYING TO MIX OUT AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR AS THE MOISTURE THICKNESS
DIMINISHES. WE ARE ALSO SEEING A FEATURE COME IN FROM THE NW THAT
LOOKS TO HELP MORE WITH DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVER. WE EXPECT MORE
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH MID EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS START TO
REFORM AND SOME FOG DEVELOPS IN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT WIND
REGIME.

WE EXPECT THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS TO MIX OUT A BIT QUICKER ON MON AS
IT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE. WE WILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF ANY CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 80S WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C.

FOG POTENTIAL MON NIGHT LOOKS TO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS THIS MORNING
OR WHAT IS EXPECTED MON MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER KEEPING THINGS MIXED A LITTLE BETTER...AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE NOW WILL HAVE MIXED OUT BETTER ON MON AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SMALL CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUE. THE MODELS ARE ALL
HOLDING ON TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE ACROSS INDIANA THAT WAS LEFT BY THE
CURRENTLY DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH
INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA ALONG WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE ON
A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. CAPE PROFILES ON FCST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
LIMITED AS ARE WIND FIELDS ALOFT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
LABOR DAY WEEKEND DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
U.S. FEATURING A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE BULK
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS OR
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING EACH DAY.

WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE... PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE FROM MESO/MICRO SCALE
EFFECTS SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS/STAGNANT PATTERN AND LONGER NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONDITIONS GENERALLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR AND CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO PRIMARILY IFR/LIFR THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS AS FOG BECOMES MORE DENSE AND
WIDESPREAD.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING
AS FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AND CIGS IMPROVE. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR THEN CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK FOR
MARINE INTERESTS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH MON/THU-FRI LOOKING LIKE WINDS COULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH A VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE THOSE DAYS.

WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME FOG ISSUES IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 310426
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1226 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BECOME VERY WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE TIME DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM...BUT THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NOW ABOUT 5 DEGREES F OR LESS AS OF
930PM...AND CORRESPONDINGLY FOG IS ALREADY FORMING. VISIBILITIES
APPROACHING 1 MILE ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL
SITES...WITH STRATUS BELOW 1000FT SHOWING UP AS WELL.

GIVEN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT
AHEAD OF US...THINKING THE GOING FORECAST OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPING IS SOLID. THREAT FOR DENSE FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HOIST ANY HEADLINE YET.
WE WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EACH
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOWER/STORM CHCS FOR TUE.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THUS FAR WITH A LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA...AND THE
DECENT THICKNESS OF THE STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS ARE
TRYING TO MIX OUT AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR AS THE MOISTURE THICKNESS
DIMINISHES. WE ARE ALSO SEEING A FEATURE COME IN FROM THE NW THAT
LOOKS TO HELP MORE WITH DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVER. WE EXPECT MORE
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH MID EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS START TO
REFORM AND SOME FOG DEVELOPS IN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT WIND
REGIME.

WE EXPECT THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS TO MIX OUT A BIT QUICKER ON MON AS
IT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE. WE WILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF ANY CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 80S WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C.

FOG POTENTIAL MON NIGHT LOOKS TO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS THIS MORNING
OR WHAT IS EXPECTED MON MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER KEEPING THINGS MIXED A LITTLE BETTER...AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE NOW WILL HAVE MIXED OUT BETTER ON MON AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SMALL CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUE. THE MODELS ARE ALL
HOLDING ON TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE ACROSS INDIANA THAT WAS LEFT BY THE
CURRENTLY DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH
INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA ALONG WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE ON
A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. CAPE PROFILES ON FCST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
LIMITED AS ARE WIND FIELDS ALOFT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
LABOR DAY WEEKEND DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
U.S. FEATURING A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE BULK
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS OR
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING EACH DAY.

WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE... PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE FROM MESO/MICRO SCALE
EFFECTS SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS/STAGNANT PATTERN AND LONGER NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONDITIONS GENERALLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR AND CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO PRIMARILY IFR/LIFR THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS AS FOG BECOMES MORE DENSE AND
WIDESPREAD.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING
AS FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AND CIGS IMPROVE. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR THEN CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK FOR
MARINE INTERESTS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH MON/THU-FRI LOOKING LIKE WINDS COULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH A VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE THOSE DAYS.

WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME FOG ISSUES IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KGRR 310158
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
958 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BECOME VERY WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE TIME DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM...BUT THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NOW ABOUT 5 DEGREES F OR LESS AS OF
930PM...AND CORRESPONDINGLY FOG IS ALREADY FORMING. VISIBILITIES
APPROACHING 1 MILE ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL
SITES...WITH STRATUS BELOW 1000FT SHOWING UP AS WELL.

GIVEN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT
AHEAD OF US...THINKING THE GOING FORECAST OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPING IS SOLID. THREAT FOR DENSE FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HOIST ANY HEADLINE YET.
WE WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS.

LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 60 IN MANY AREAS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EACH
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOWER/STORM CHCS FOR TUE.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THUS FAR WITH A LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA...AND THE
DECENT THICKNESS OF THE STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS ARE
TRYING TO MIX OUT AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR AS THE MOISTURE THICKNESS
DIMINISHES. WE ARE ALSO SEEING A FEATURE COME IN FROM THE NW THAT
LOOKS TO HELP MORE WITH DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVER. WE EXPECT MORE
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH MID EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS START TO
REFORM AND SOME FOG DEVELOPS IN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT WIND
REGIME.

WE EXPECT THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS TO MIX OUT A BIT QUICKER ON MON AS
IT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE. WE WILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF ANY CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 80S WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C.

FOG POTENTIAL MON NIGHT LOOKS TO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS THIS MORNING
OR WHAT IS EXPECTED MON MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER KEEPING THINGS MIXED A LITTLE BETTER...AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE NOW WILL HAVE MIXED OUT BETTER ON MON AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SMALL CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUE. THE MODELS ARE ALL
HOLDING ON TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE ACROSS INDIANA THAT WAS LEFT BY THE
CURRENTLY DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH
INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA ALONG WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE ON
A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. CAPE PROFILES ON FCST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
LIMITED AS ARE WIND FIELDS ALOFT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
LABOR DAY WEEKEND DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
U.S. FEATURING A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE BULK
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS OR
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING EACH DAY.

WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE... PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE FROM MESO/MICRO SCALE
EFFECTS SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS/STAGNANT PATTERN AND LONGER NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECTING A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF THE STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT.
MOST OBSERVATION SITES CURRENTLY HAVE A TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREAD OF 10 DEGREES OR LESS AND IT WON/T TAKE MUCH FOR THE
READINGS TO CONVERGE AFTER SUNSET.

LOOKING FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z AND
05Z...WITH STRATUS SHOWING UP AFTER 08Z OR SO. LOOKING FOR THE
WORST OF THE CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z....WHERE IFR SHOULD BE
PREVALENT. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS IS MEDIUM AT THIS
POINT...BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE COURSE OF
MONDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME OF THE STRATUS HANGING ON INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS THOUGH. MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING VFR WEATHER.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK FOR
MARINE INTERESTS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH MON/THU-FRI LOOKING LIKE WINDS COULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH A VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE THOSE DAYS.

WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME FOG ISSUES IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 310158
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
958 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BECOME VERY WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE TIME DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM...BUT THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NOW ABOUT 5 DEGREES F OR LESS AS OF
930PM...AND CORRESPONDINGLY FOG IS ALREADY FORMING. VISIBILITIES
APPROACHING 1 MILE ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL
SITES...WITH STRATUS BELOW 1000FT SHOWING UP AS WELL.

GIVEN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT
AHEAD OF US...THINKING THE GOING FORECAST OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPING IS SOLID. THREAT FOR DENSE FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HOIST ANY HEADLINE YET.
WE WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS.

LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 60 IN MANY AREAS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EACH
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOWER/STORM CHCS FOR TUE.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THUS FAR WITH A LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA...AND THE
DECENT THICKNESS OF THE STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS ARE
TRYING TO MIX OUT AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR AS THE MOISTURE THICKNESS
DIMINISHES. WE ARE ALSO SEEING A FEATURE COME IN FROM THE NW THAT
LOOKS TO HELP MORE WITH DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVER. WE EXPECT MORE
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH MID EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS START TO
REFORM AND SOME FOG DEVELOPS IN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT WIND
REGIME.

WE EXPECT THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS TO MIX OUT A BIT QUICKER ON MON AS
IT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE. WE WILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF ANY CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 80S WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C.

FOG POTENTIAL MON NIGHT LOOKS TO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS THIS MORNING
OR WHAT IS EXPECTED MON MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER KEEPING THINGS MIXED A LITTLE BETTER...AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE NOW WILL HAVE MIXED OUT BETTER ON MON AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SMALL CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUE. THE MODELS ARE ALL
HOLDING ON TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE ACROSS INDIANA THAT WAS LEFT BY THE
CURRENTLY DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH
INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA ALONG WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE ON
A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. CAPE PROFILES ON FCST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
LIMITED AS ARE WIND FIELDS ALOFT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
LABOR DAY WEEKEND DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
U.S. FEATURING A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE BULK
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS OR
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING EACH DAY.

WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE... PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE FROM MESO/MICRO SCALE
EFFECTS SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS/STAGNANT PATTERN AND LONGER NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECTING A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF THE STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT.
MOST OBSERVATION SITES CURRENTLY HAVE A TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREAD OF 10 DEGREES OR LESS AND IT WON/T TAKE MUCH FOR THE
READINGS TO CONVERGE AFTER SUNSET.

LOOKING FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z AND
05Z...WITH STRATUS SHOWING UP AFTER 08Z OR SO. LOOKING FOR THE
WORST OF THE CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z....WHERE IFR SHOULD BE
PREVALENT. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS IS MEDIUM AT THIS
POINT...BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE COURSE OF
MONDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME OF THE STRATUS HANGING ON INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS THOUGH. MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING VFR WEATHER.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK FOR
MARINE INTERESTS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH MON/THU-FRI LOOKING LIKE WINDS COULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH A VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE THOSE DAYS.

WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME FOG ISSUES IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KGRR 310158
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
958 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BECOME VERY WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE TIME DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM...BUT THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NOW ABOUT 5 DEGREES F OR LESS AS OF
930PM...AND CORRESPONDINGLY FOG IS ALREADY FORMING. VISIBILITIES
APPROACHING 1 MILE ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL
SITES...WITH STRATUS BELOW 1000FT SHOWING UP AS WELL.

GIVEN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT
AHEAD OF US...THINKING THE GOING FORECAST OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPING IS SOLID. THREAT FOR DENSE FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HOIST ANY HEADLINE YET.
WE WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS.

LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 60 IN MANY AREAS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EACH
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOWER/STORM CHCS FOR TUE.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THUS FAR WITH A LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA...AND THE
DECENT THICKNESS OF THE STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS ARE
TRYING TO MIX OUT AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR AS THE MOISTURE THICKNESS
DIMINISHES. WE ARE ALSO SEEING A FEATURE COME IN FROM THE NW THAT
LOOKS TO HELP MORE WITH DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVER. WE EXPECT MORE
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH MID EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS START TO
REFORM AND SOME FOG DEVELOPS IN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT WIND
REGIME.

WE EXPECT THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS TO MIX OUT A BIT QUICKER ON MON AS
IT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE. WE WILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF ANY CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 80S WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C.

FOG POTENTIAL MON NIGHT LOOKS TO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS THIS MORNING
OR WHAT IS EXPECTED MON MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER KEEPING THINGS MIXED A LITTLE BETTER...AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE NOW WILL HAVE MIXED OUT BETTER ON MON AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SMALL CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUE. THE MODELS ARE ALL
HOLDING ON TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE ACROSS INDIANA THAT WAS LEFT BY THE
CURRENTLY DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH
INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA ALONG WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE ON
A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. CAPE PROFILES ON FCST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
LIMITED AS ARE WIND FIELDS ALOFT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
LABOR DAY WEEKEND DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
U.S. FEATURING A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE BULK
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS OR
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING EACH DAY.

WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE... PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE FROM MESO/MICRO SCALE
EFFECTS SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS/STAGNANT PATTERN AND LONGER NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECTING A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF THE STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT.
MOST OBSERVATION SITES CURRENTLY HAVE A TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREAD OF 10 DEGREES OR LESS AND IT WON/T TAKE MUCH FOR THE
READINGS TO CONVERGE AFTER SUNSET.

LOOKING FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z AND
05Z...WITH STRATUS SHOWING UP AFTER 08Z OR SO. LOOKING FOR THE
WORST OF THE CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z....WHERE IFR SHOULD BE
PREVALENT. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS IS MEDIUM AT THIS
POINT...BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE COURSE OF
MONDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME OF THE STRATUS HANGING ON INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS THOUGH. MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING VFR WEATHER.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK FOR
MARINE INTERESTS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH MON/THU-FRI LOOKING LIKE WINDS COULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH A VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE THOSE DAYS.

WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME FOG ISSUES IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 310158
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
958 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BECOME VERY WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE TIME DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM...BUT THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NOW ABOUT 5 DEGREES F OR LESS AS OF
930PM...AND CORRESPONDINGLY FOG IS ALREADY FORMING. VISIBILITIES
APPROACHING 1 MILE ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL
SITES...WITH STRATUS BELOW 1000FT SHOWING UP AS WELL.

GIVEN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT
AHEAD OF US...THINKING THE GOING FORECAST OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPING IS SOLID. THREAT FOR DENSE FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HOIST ANY HEADLINE YET.
WE WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS.

LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 60 IN MANY AREAS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EACH
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOWER/STORM CHCS FOR TUE.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THUS FAR WITH A LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA...AND THE
DECENT THICKNESS OF THE STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS ARE
TRYING TO MIX OUT AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR AS THE MOISTURE THICKNESS
DIMINISHES. WE ARE ALSO SEEING A FEATURE COME IN FROM THE NW THAT
LOOKS TO HELP MORE WITH DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVER. WE EXPECT MORE
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH MID EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS START TO
REFORM AND SOME FOG DEVELOPS IN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT WIND
REGIME.

WE EXPECT THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS TO MIX OUT A BIT QUICKER ON MON AS
IT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE. WE WILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF ANY CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 80S WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C.

FOG POTENTIAL MON NIGHT LOOKS TO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS THIS MORNING
OR WHAT IS EXPECTED MON MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER KEEPING THINGS MIXED A LITTLE BETTER...AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE NOW WILL HAVE MIXED OUT BETTER ON MON AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SMALL CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUE. THE MODELS ARE ALL
HOLDING ON TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE ACROSS INDIANA THAT WAS LEFT BY THE
CURRENTLY DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH
INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA ALONG WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE ON
A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. CAPE PROFILES ON FCST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
LIMITED AS ARE WIND FIELDS ALOFT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
LABOR DAY WEEKEND DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
U.S. FEATURING A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE BULK
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS OR
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING EACH DAY.

WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE... PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE FROM MESO/MICRO SCALE
EFFECTS SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS/STAGNANT PATTERN AND LONGER NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECTING A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF THE STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT.
MOST OBSERVATION SITES CURRENTLY HAVE A TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREAD OF 10 DEGREES OR LESS AND IT WON/T TAKE MUCH FOR THE
READINGS TO CONVERGE AFTER SUNSET.

LOOKING FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z AND
05Z...WITH STRATUS SHOWING UP AFTER 08Z OR SO. LOOKING FOR THE
WORST OF THE CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z....WHERE IFR SHOULD BE
PREVALENT. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS IS MEDIUM AT THIS
POINT...BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE COURSE OF
MONDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME OF THE STRATUS HANGING ON INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS THOUGH. MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING VFR WEATHER.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK FOR
MARINE INTERESTS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH MON/THU-FRI LOOKING LIKE WINDS COULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH A VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE THOSE DAYS.

WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME FOG ISSUES IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KGRR 310005
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BECOME VERY WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE TIME DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM...BUT THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EACH
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOWER/STORM CHCS FOR TUE.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THUS FAR WITH A LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA...AND THE
DECENT THICKNESS OF THE STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS ARE
TRYING TO MIX OUT AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR AS THE MOISTURE THICKNESS
DIMINISHES. WE ARE ALSO SEEING A FEATURE COME IN FROM THE NW THAT
LOOKS TO HELP MORE WITH DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVER. WE EXPECT MORE
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH MID EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS START TO
REFORM AND SOME FOG DEVELOPS IN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT WIND
REGIME.

WE EXPECT THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS TO MIX OUT A BIT QUICKER ON MON AS
IT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE. WE WILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF ANY CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 80S WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C.

FOG POTENTIAL MON NIGHT LOOKS TO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS THIS MORNING
OR WHAT IS EXPECTED MON MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER KEEPING THINGS MIXED A LITTLE BETTER...AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE NOW WILL HAVE MIXED OUT BETTER ON MON AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SMALL CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUE. THE MODELS ARE ALL
HOLDING ON TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE ACROSS INDIANA THAT WAS LEFT BY THE
CURRENTLY DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH
INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA ALONG WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE ON
A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. CAPE PROFILES ON FCST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
LIMITED AS ARE WIND FIELDS ALOFT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
LABOR DAY WEEKEND DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
U.S. FEATURING A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE BULK
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS OR
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING EACH DAY.

WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE... PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE FROM MESO/MICRO SCALE
EFFECTS SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS/STAGNANT PATTERN AND LONGER NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECTING A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF THE STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT.
MOST OBSERVATION SITES CURRENTLY HAVE A TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREAD OF 10 DEGREES OR LESS AND IT WON/T TAKE MUCH FOR THE
READINGS TO CONVERGE AFTER SUNSET.

LOOKING FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z AND
05Z...WITH STRATUS SHOWING UP AFTER 08Z OR SO. LOOKING FOR THE
WORST OF THE CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z....WHERE IFR SHOULD BE
PREVALENT. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS IS MEDIUM AT THIS
POINT...BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE COURSE OF
MONDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME OF THE STRATUS HANGING ON INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS THOUGH. MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING VFR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK FOR
MARINE INTERESTS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH MON/THU-FRI LOOKING LIKE WINDS COULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH A VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE THOSE DAYS.

WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME FOG ISSUES IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KGRR 310005
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BECOME VERY WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE TIME DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM...BUT THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EACH
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOWER/STORM CHCS FOR TUE.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THUS FAR WITH A LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA...AND THE
DECENT THICKNESS OF THE STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS ARE
TRYING TO MIX OUT AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR AS THE MOISTURE THICKNESS
DIMINISHES. WE ARE ALSO SEEING A FEATURE COME IN FROM THE NW THAT
LOOKS TO HELP MORE WITH DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVER. WE EXPECT MORE
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH MID EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS START TO
REFORM AND SOME FOG DEVELOPS IN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT WIND
REGIME.

WE EXPECT THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS TO MIX OUT A BIT QUICKER ON MON AS
IT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE. WE WILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF ANY CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 80S WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C.

FOG POTENTIAL MON NIGHT LOOKS TO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS THIS MORNING
OR WHAT IS EXPECTED MON MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER KEEPING THINGS MIXED A LITTLE BETTER...AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE NOW WILL HAVE MIXED OUT BETTER ON MON AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SMALL CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUE. THE MODELS ARE ALL
HOLDING ON TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE ACROSS INDIANA THAT WAS LEFT BY THE
CURRENTLY DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH
INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA ALONG WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE ON
A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. CAPE PROFILES ON FCST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
LIMITED AS ARE WIND FIELDS ALOFT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
LABOR DAY WEEKEND DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
U.S. FEATURING A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE BULK
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS OR
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING EACH DAY.

WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE... PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE FROM MESO/MICRO SCALE
EFFECTS SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS/STAGNANT PATTERN AND LONGER NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECTING A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF THE STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT.
MOST OBSERVATION SITES CURRENTLY HAVE A TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREAD OF 10 DEGREES OR LESS AND IT WON/T TAKE MUCH FOR THE
READINGS TO CONVERGE AFTER SUNSET.

LOOKING FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z AND
05Z...WITH STRATUS SHOWING UP AFTER 08Z OR SO. LOOKING FOR THE
WORST OF THE CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z....WHERE IFR SHOULD BE
PREVALENT. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS IS MEDIUM AT THIS
POINT...BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE COURSE OF
MONDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME OF THE STRATUS HANGING ON INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS THOUGH. MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING VFR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK FOR
MARINE INTERESTS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH MON/THU-FRI LOOKING LIKE WINDS COULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH A VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE THOSE DAYS.

WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME FOG ISSUES IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 310005
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BECOME VERY WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE TIME DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM...BUT THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EACH
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOWER/STORM CHCS FOR TUE.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THUS FAR WITH A LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA...AND THE
DECENT THICKNESS OF THE STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS ARE
TRYING TO MIX OUT AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR AS THE MOISTURE THICKNESS
DIMINISHES. WE ARE ALSO SEEING A FEATURE COME IN FROM THE NW THAT
LOOKS TO HELP MORE WITH DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVER. WE EXPECT MORE
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH MID EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS START TO
REFORM AND SOME FOG DEVELOPS IN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT WIND
REGIME.

WE EXPECT THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS TO MIX OUT A BIT QUICKER ON MON AS
IT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE. WE WILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF ANY CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 80S WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C.

FOG POTENTIAL MON NIGHT LOOKS TO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS THIS MORNING
OR WHAT IS EXPECTED MON MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER KEEPING THINGS MIXED A LITTLE BETTER...AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE NOW WILL HAVE MIXED OUT BETTER ON MON AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SMALL CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUE. THE MODELS ARE ALL
HOLDING ON TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE ACROSS INDIANA THAT WAS LEFT BY THE
CURRENTLY DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH
INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA ALONG WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE ON
A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. CAPE PROFILES ON FCST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
LIMITED AS ARE WIND FIELDS ALOFT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
LABOR DAY WEEKEND DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
U.S. FEATURING A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE BULK
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS OR
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING EACH DAY.

WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE... PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE FROM MESO/MICRO SCALE
EFFECTS SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS/STAGNANT PATTERN AND LONGER NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECTING A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF THE STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT.
MOST OBSERVATION SITES CURRENTLY HAVE A TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREAD OF 10 DEGREES OR LESS AND IT WON/T TAKE MUCH FOR THE
READINGS TO CONVERGE AFTER SUNSET.

LOOKING FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z AND
05Z...WITH STRATUS SHOWING UP AFTER 08Z OR SO. LOOKING FOR THE
WORST OF THE CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z....WHERE IFR SHOULD BE
PREVALENT. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS IS MEDIUM AT THIS
POINT...BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE COURSE OF
MONDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME OF THE STRATUS HANGING ON INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS THOUGH. MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING VFR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK FOR
MARINE INTERESTS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH MON/THU-FRI LOOKING LIKE WINDS COULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH A VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE THOSE DAYS.

WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME FOG ISSUES IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KGRR 301915
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BECOME VERY WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE TIME DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM...BUT THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EACH
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOWER/STORM CHCS FOR TUE.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THUS FAR WITH A LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA...AND THE
DECENT THICKNESS OF THE STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS ARE
TRYING TO MIX OUT AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR AS THE MOISTURE THICKNESS
DIMINISHES. WE ARE ALSO SEEING A FEATURE COME IN FROM THE NW THAT
LOOKS TO HELP MORE WITH DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVER. WE EXPECT MORE
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH MID EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS START TO
REFORM AND SOME FOG DEVELOPS IN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT WIND
REGIME.

WE EXPECT THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS TO MIX OUT A BIT QUICKER ON MON AS
IT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE. WE WILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF ANY CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 80S WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C.

FOG POTENTIAL MON NIGHT LOOKS TO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS THIS MORNING
OR WHAT IS EXPECTED MON MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER KEEPING THINGS MIXED A LITTLE BETTER...AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE NOW WILL HAVE MIXED OUT BETTER ON MON AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SMALL CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUE. THE MODELS ARE ALL
HOLDING ON TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE ACROSS INDIANA THAT WAS LEFT BY THE
CURRENTLY DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH
INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA ALONG WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE ON
A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. CAPE PROFILES ON FCST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
LIMITED AS ARE WIND FIELDS ALOFT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
LABOR DAY WEEKEND DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
U.S. FEATURING A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE BULK
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS OR
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING EACH DAY.

WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE... PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE FROM MESO/MICRO SCALE
EFFECTS SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS/STAGNANT PATTERN AND LONGER NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NUMEROUS MVFR CIGS OF 1500-2500 FT ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED BY MORE FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE A GOOD BET AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY 08Z-14Z... WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR EXPECTED TOWARD 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK FOR
MARINE INTERESTS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH MON/THU-FRI LOOKING LIKE WINDS COULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH A VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE THOSE DAYS.

WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME FOG ISSUES IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KGRR 301915
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BECOME VERY WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE TIME DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM...BUT THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EACH
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOWER/STORM CHCS FOR TUE.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THUS FAR WITH A LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA...AND THE
DECENT THICKNESS OF THE STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS ARE
TRYING TO MIX OUT AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR AS THE MOISTURE THICKNESS
DIMINISHES. WE ARE ALSO SEEING A FEATURE COME IN FROM THE NW THAT
LOOKS TO HELP MORE WITH DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVER. WE EXPECT MORE
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH MID EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS START TO
REFORM AND SOME FOG DEVELOPS IN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT WIND
REGIME.

WE EXPECT THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS TO MIX OUT A BIT QUICKER ON MON AS
IT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE. WE WILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF ANY CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 80S WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C.

FOG POTENTIAL MON NIGHT LOOKS TO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS THIS MORNING
OR WHAT IS EXPECTED MON MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER KEEPING THINGS MIXED A LITTLE BETTER...AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE NOW WILL HAVE MIXED OUT BETTER ON MON AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SMALL CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUE. THE MODELS ARE ALL
HOLDING ON TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE ACROSS INDIANA THAT WAS LEFT BY THE
CURRENTLY DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH
INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA ALONG WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE ON
A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. CAPE PROFILES ON FCST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
LIMITED AS ARE WIND FIELDS ALOFT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
LABOR DAY WEEKEND DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
U.S. FEATURING A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE BULK
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS OR
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING EACH DAY.

WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE... PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE FROM MESO/MICRO SCALE
EFFECTS SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS/STAGNANT PATTERN AND LONGER NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NUMEROUS MVFR CIGS OF 1500-2500 FT ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED BY MORE FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE A GOOD BET AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY 08Z-14Z... WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR EXPECTED TOWARD 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK FOR
MARINE INTERESTS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH MON/THU-FRI LOOKING LIKE WINDS COULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH A VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE THOSE DAYS.

WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME FOG ISSUES IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 301915
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BECOME VERY WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE TIME DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM...BUT THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

OUR MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EACH
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOWER/STORM CHCS FOR TUE.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THUS FAR WITH A LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA...AND THE
DECENT THICKNESS OF THE STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS ARE
TRYING TO MIX OUT AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR AS THE MOISTURE THICKNESS
DIMINISHES. WE ARE ALSO SEEING A FEATURE COME IN FROM THE NW THAT
LOOKS TO HELP MORE WITH DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVER. WE EXPECT MORE
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH MID EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS START TO
REFORM AND SOME FOG DEVELOPS IN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT WIND
REGIME.

WE EXPECT THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS TO MIX OUT A BIT QUICKER ON MON AS
IT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE. WE WILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF ANY CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 80S WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C.

FOG POTENTIAL MON NIGHT LOOKS TO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS THIS MORNING
OR WHAT IS EXPECTED MON MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER KEEPING THINGS MIXED A LITTLE BETTER...AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE NOW WILL HAVE MIXED OUT BETTER ON MON AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SMALL CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUE. THE MODELS ARE ALL
HOLDING ON TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE ACROSS INDIANA THAT WAS LEFT BY THE
CURRENTLY DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH
INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA ALONG WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE ON
A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. CAPE PROFILES ON FCST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
LIMITED AS ARE WIND FIELDS ALOFT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
LABOR DAY WEEKEND DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
U.S. FEATURING A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE BULK
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS OR
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING EACH DAY.

WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE... PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE FROM MESO/MICRO SCALE
EFFECTS SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS/STAGNANT PATTERN AND LONGER NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NUMEROUS MVFR CIGS OF 1500-2500 FT ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED BY MORE FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE A GOOD BET AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY 08Z-14Z... WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR EXPECTED TOWARD 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK FOR
MARINE INTERESTS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH MON/THU-FRI LOOKING LIKE WINDS COULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH A VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE THOSE DAYS.

WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME FOG ISSUES IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW THIS WEEK. THERE SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KGRR 301743
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
143 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AND AREAS OF
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON. FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
ENDING TODAY AND CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.

WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES THIS MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END BY AFTERNOON AND LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE.

EVEN AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH ON
TUESDAY AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY.

WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED WITH TIME AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT
OF QPF SUGGESTING AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. MAX TEMPS
WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES DAILY WITH MIN TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. IT WILL BE RATHER HUMID THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FCST PERIOD AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WE CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DAILY MID TO LATE WEEK MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT
MOST DAYS WILL LACK A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
OCCUR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE AND RESULTING
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE DAILY. HOWEVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE VERY WARM TO HOT AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NUMEROUS MVFR CIGS OF 1500-2500 FT ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED BY MORE FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE A GOOD BET AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY 08Z-14Z... WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR EXPECTED TOWARD 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THIS MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST LOCATIONS SAW LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.  MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LARGELY DRY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63/JK MARINE...JK
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 301743
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
143 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AND AREAS OF
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON. FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
ENDING TODAY AND CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.

WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES THIS MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END BY AFTERNOON AND LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE.

EVEN AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH ON
TUESDAY AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY.

WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED WITH TIME AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT
OF QPF SUGGESTING AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. MAX TEMPS
WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES DAILY WITH MIN TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. IT WILL BE RATHER HUMID THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FCST PERIOD AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WE CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DAILY MID TO LATE WEEK MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT
MOST DAYS WILL LACK A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
OCCUR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE AND RESULTING
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE DAILY. HOWEVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE VERY WARM TO HOT AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NUMEROUS MVFR CIGS OF 1500-2500 FT ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED BY MORE FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE A GOOD BET AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY 08Z-14Z... WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR EXPECTED TOWARD 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THIS MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST LOCATIONS SAW LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.  MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LARGELY DRY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63/JK MARINE...JK
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 301743
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
143 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AND AREAS OF
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON. FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
ENDING TODAY AND CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.

WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES THIS MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END BY AFTERNOON AND LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE.

EVEN AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH ON
TUESDAY AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY.

WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED WITH TIME AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT
OF QPF SUGGESTING AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. MAX TEMPS
WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES DAILY WITH MIN TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. IT WILL BE RATHER HUMID THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FCST PERIOD AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WE CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DAILY MID TO LATE WEEK MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT
MOST DAYS WILL LACK A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
OCCUR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE AND RESULTING
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE DAILY. HOWEVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE VERY WARM TO HOT AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NUMEROUS MVFR CIGS OF 1500-2500 FT ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED BY MORE FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE A GOOD BET AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY 08Z-14Z... WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR EXPECTED TOWARD 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THIS MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST LOCATIONS SAW LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.  MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LARGELY DRY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63/JK MARINE...JK
MARINE...OSTUNO




000
FXUS63 KGRR 301743
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
143 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AND AREAS OF
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON. FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
ENDING TODAY AND CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.

WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES THIS MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END BY AFTERNOON AND LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE.

EVEN AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH ON
TUESDAY AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY.

WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED WITH TIME AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT
OF QPF SUGGESTING AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. MAX TEMPS
WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES DAILY WITH MIN TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. IT WILL BE RATHER HUMID THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FCST PERIOD AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WE CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DAILY MID TO LATE WEEK MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT
MOST DAYS WILL LACK A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
OCCUR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE AND RESULTING
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE DAILY. HOWEVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE VERY WARM TO HOT AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NUMEROUS MVFR CIGS OF 1500-2500 FT ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED BY MORE FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE A GOOD BET AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY 08Z-14Z... WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR EXPECTED TOWARD 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THIS MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST LOCATIONS SAW LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.  MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LARGELY DRY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63/JK MARINE...JK
MARINE...OSTUNO




000
FXUS63 KGRR 301140
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
740 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AND AREAS OF
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON. FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
ENDING TODAY AND CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.

WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES THIS MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END BY AFTERNOON AND LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE.

EVEN AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH ON
TUESDAY AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY.

WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED WITH TIME AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT
OF QPF SUGGESTING AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. MAX TEMPS
WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES DAILY WITH MIN TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. IT WILL BE RATHER HUMID THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FCST PERIOD AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WE CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DAILY MID TO LATE WEEK MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT
MOST DAYS WILL LACK A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
OCCUR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE AND RESULTING
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE DAILY. HOWEVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE VERY WARM TO HOT AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING IFR AND PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR BY 16Z AND THEN VFR BY
18Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
FOG FORMING AGAIN BY 06Z AND MORE IFR AND LIFR BY 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST LOCATIONS SAW LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.  MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LARGELY DRY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63/JK MARINE...JK
MARINE...OSTUNO




000
FXUS63 KGRR 301140
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
740 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AND AREAS OF
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON. FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
ENDING TODAY AND CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.

WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES THIS MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END BY AFTERNOON AND LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE.

EVEN AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH ON
TUESDAY AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY.

WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED WITH TIME AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT
OF QPF SUGGESTING AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. MAX TEMPS
WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES DAILY WITH MIN TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. IT WILL BE RATHER HUMID THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FCST PERIOD AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WE CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DAILY MID TO LATE WEEK MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT
MOST DAYS WILL LACK A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
OCCUR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE AND RESULTING
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE DAILY. HOWEVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE VERY WARM TO HOT AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING IFR AND PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR BY 16Z AND THEN VFR BY
18Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
FOG FORMING AGAIN BY 06Z AND MORE IFR AND LIFR BY 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST LOCATIONS SAW LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.  MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LARGELY DRY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63/JK MARINE...JK
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 300647
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AND AREAS OF
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON. FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
ENDING TODAY AND CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.

WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES THIS MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END BY AFTERNOON AND LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE.

EVEN AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH ON
TUESDAY AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY.

WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED WITH TIME AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT
OF QPF SUGGESTING AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. MAX TEMPS
WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES DAILY WITH MIN TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. IT WILL BE RATHER HUMID THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FCST PERIOD AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WE CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DAILY MID TO LATE WEEK MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT
MOST DAYS WILL LACK A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
OCCUR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE AND RESULTING
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE DAILY. HOWEVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE VERY WARM TO HOT AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO
PRIMARILY IFR WITH SOME LIFR DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS
TODAY DUE TO LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS MAINLY SE OF KGRR.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR MID TO LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AS FOG DISSIPATES AND CIGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST LOCATIONS SAW LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.  MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LARGELY DRY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63/JK MARINE...JK
MARINE...OSTUNO




000
FXUS63 KGRR 300647
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AND AREAS OF
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON. FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
ENDING TODAY AND CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.

WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES THIS MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END BY AFTERNOON AND LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE.

EVEN AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH ON
TUESDAY AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY.

WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED WITH TIME AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT
OF QPF SUGGESTING AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. MAX TEMPS
WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES DAILY WITH MIN TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. IT WILL BE RATHER HUMID THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FCST PERIOD AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WE CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DAILY MID TO LATE WEEK MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT
MOST DAYS WILL LACK A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
OCCUR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE AND RESULTING
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE DAILY. HOWEVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE VERY WARM TO HOT AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO
PRIMARILY IFR WITH SOME LIFR DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS
TODAY DUE TO LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS MAINLY SE OF KGRR.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR MID TO LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AS FOG DISSIPATES AND CIGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST LOCATIONS SAW LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.  MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LARGELY DRY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63/JK MARINE...JK
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 300427
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1227 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END OVERNIGHT...BUT ONE CAN
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG BY SUNDAY MORNING.  AFTER THE FOG BURNS
OFF...THE REST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.  MONDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

THE REST OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MOSTLY DRY...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
IT SHOULD BE A WARM WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO FEATURE SOME
HIGHER POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS I
DOWNPLAYED THE RISK DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY AROUND. SO FAR THE
CELLS HAVE REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW. I DID FEATURE FOG DEVELOPING
WITH THE VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AFTER SOME SUNDAY MORNING FOG...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS
QUIET.

A WEAKENING FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH SOME LEFT OVER
SHOWERS AND STORMS RIDING ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.  THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE EVENING...MAINTAINING THE SHOWERS...BUT THEN
IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE
EXITING THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLEARING
BEHIND THE PCPN TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS
HIGH...SO EXPECT FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  BUT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BECOME TOO DENSE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA.

CLEARING ON SUNDAY MAY BE SLOW AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.  THE THINKING
IS THE HIGH SUN ANGLE WITH HELP BURN THESE CLOUDS OFF.  BUT IT MAY
TAKE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...AND PERHAPS NOT
UNTIL THE EVENING FOR THE SE CWA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A GRADUALLY WARMING
TREND AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN.  HIGHS SUNDAY UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80...AND WITH MORE SUNSHINE MONDAY WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE THEME OF THE LONG TERM IS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER/STORM EACH DAY. MOST OF THE TIME WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT
OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALL OCCUR
AS WE STILL EXPECT UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE ERN PORTION OF
NORTH AMERICA AS A STRONG TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT.

TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY WITH H850
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR STORM IS A BIT LOWER FOR MID WEEK COMPARED TO THE FCST
YESTERDAY AS THE WAVE OF INTEREST IS SHOWN TO DAMPEN OUT QUICKER AND
BE LESS OF A FACTOR. WE WILL HAVE A GENERAL SRLY FLOW IN PLACE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ADVECTING FAIRLY MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY COULD BUILD AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EACH DAY THAT A
SHOWER/STORM COULD POP WITH ANY KIND OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARY THAT MAY
BE PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO
PRIMARILY IFR WITH SOME LIFR DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS
TODAY DUE TO LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS MAINLY SE OF KGRR.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR MID TO LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AS FOG DISSIPATES AND CIGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. MOIST LOW LEVELS COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
CAMS JUST BEFORE SUNSET DID NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. WILL
KEEP THE AREAS OF FOG GOING FOR NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK SO WINDS AND RESULTING WAVES SHOULD REMAIN LOW
INTO MONDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST LOCATIONS SAW LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.  MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LARGELY DRY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63/JK MARINE...JK
MARINE...MJS





000
FXUS63 KGRR 300427
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1227 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END OVERNIGHT...BUT ONE CAN
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG BY SUNDAY MORNING.  AFTER THE FOG BURNS
OFF...THE REST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.  MONDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

THE REST OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MOSTLY DRY...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
IT SHOULD BE A WARM WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO FEATURE SOME
HIGHER POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS I
DOWNPLAYED THE RISK DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY AROUND. SO FAR THE
CELLS HAVE REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW. I DID FEATURE FOG DEVELOPING
WITH THE VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AFTER SOME SUNDAY MORNING FOG...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS
QUIET.

A WEAKENING FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH SOME LEFT OVER
SHOWERS AND STORMS RIDING ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.  THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE EVENING...MAINTAINING THE SHOWERS...BUT THEN
IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE
EXITING THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLEARING
BEHIND THE PCPN TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS
HIGH...SO EXPECT FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  BUT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BECOME TOO DENSE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA.

CLEARING ON SUNDAY MAY BE SLOW AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.  THE THINKING
IS THE HIGH SUN ANGLE WITH HELP BURN THESE CLOUDS OFF.  BUT IT MAY
TAKE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...AND PERHAPS NOT
UNTIL THE EVENING FOR THE SE CWA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A GRADUALLY WARMING
TREND AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN.  HIGHS SUNDAY UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80...AND WITH MORE SUNSHINE MONDAY WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE THEME OF THE LONG TERM IS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER/STORM EACH DAY. MOST OF THE TIME WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT
OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALL OCCUR
AS WE STILL EXPECT UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE ERN PORTION OF
NORTH AMERICA AS A STRONG TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT.

TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY WITH H850
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR STORM IS A BIT LOWER FOR MID WEEK COMPARED TO THE FCST
YESTERDAY AS THE WAVE OF INTEREST IS SHOWN TO DAMPEN OUT QUICKER AND
BE LESS OF A FACTOR. WE WILL HAVE A GENERAL SRLY FLOW IN PLACE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ADVECTING FAIRLY MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY COULD BUILD AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EACH DAY THAT A
SHOWER/STORM COULD POP WITH ANY KIND OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARY THAT MAY
BE PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO
PRIMARILY IFR WITH SOME LIFR DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS
TODAY DUE TO LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS MAINLY SE OF KGRR.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR MID TO LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AS FOG DISSIPATES AND CIGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. MOIST LOW LEVELS COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
CAMS JUST BEFORE SUNSET DID NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. WILL
KEEP THE AREAS OF FOG GOING FOR NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK SO WINDS AND RESULTING WAVES SHOULD REMAIN LOW
INTO MONDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST LOCATIONS SAW LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.  MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LARGELY DRY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63/JK MARINE...JK
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 300427
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1227 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END OVERNIGHT...BUT ONE CAN
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG BY SUNDAY MORNING.  AFTER THE FOG BURNS
OFF...THE REST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.  MONDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

THE REST OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MOSTLY DRY...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
IT SHOULD BE A WARM WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO FEATURE SOME
HIGHER POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS I
DOWNPLAYED THE RISK DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY AROUND. SO FAR THE
CELLS HAVE REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW. I DID FEATURE FOG DEVELOPING
WITH THE VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AFTER SOME SUNDAY MORNING FOG...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS
QUIET.

A WEAKENING FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH SOME LEFT OVER
SHOWERS AND STORMS RIDING ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.  THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE EVENING...MAINTAINING THE SHOWERS...BUT THEN
IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE
EXITING THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLEARING
BEHIND THE PCPN TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS
HIGH...SO EXPECT FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  BUT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BECOME TOO DENSE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA.

CLEARING ON SUNDAY MAY BE SLOW AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.  THE THINKING
IS THE HIGH SUN ANGLE WITH HELP BURN THESE CLOUDS OFF.  BUT IT MAY
TAKE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...AND PERHAPS NOT
UNTIL THE EVENING FOR THE SE CWA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A GRADUALLY WARMING
TREND AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN.  HIGHS SUNDAY UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80...AND WITH MORE SUNSHINE MONDAY WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE THEME OF THE LONG TERM IS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER/STORM EACH DAY. MOST OF THE TIME WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT
OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALL OCCUR
AS WE STILL EXPECT UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE ERN PORTION OF
NORTH AMERICA AS A STRONG TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT.

TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY WITH H850
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR STORM IS A BIT LOWER FOR MID WEEK COMPARED TO THE FCST
YESTERDAY AS THE WAVE OF INTEREST IS SHOWN TO DAMPEN OUT QUICKER AND
BE LESS OF A FACTOR. WE WILL HAVE A GENERAL SRLY FLOW IN PLACE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ADVECTING FAIRLY MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY COULD BUILD AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EACH DAY THAT A
SHOWER/STORM COULD POP WITH ANY KIND OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARY THAT MAY
BE PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO
PRIMARILY IFR WITH SOME LIFR DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS
TODAY DUE TO LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS MAINLY SE OF KGRR.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR MID TO LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AS FOG DISSIPATES AND CIGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. MOIST LOW LEVELS COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
CAMS JUST BEFORE SUNSET DID NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. WILL
KEEP THE AREAS OF FOG GOING FOR NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK SO WINDS AND RESULTING WAVES SHOULD REMAIN LOW
INTO MONDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST LOCATIONS SAW LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.  MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LARGELY DRY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63/JK MARINE...JK
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 300211
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1011 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END OVERNIGHT...BUT ONE CAN
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG BY SUNDAY MORNING.  AFTER THE FOG BURNS
OFF...THE REST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.  MONDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

THE REST OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MOSTLY DRY...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
IT SHOULD BE A WARM WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO FEATURE SOME
HIGHER POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS I
DOWNPLAYED THE RISK DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY AROUND. SO FAR THE
CELLS HAVE REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW. I DID FEATURE FOG DEVELOPING
WITH THE VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AFTER SOME SUNDAY MORNING FOG...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS
QUIET.

A WEAKENING FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH SOME LEFT OVER
SHOWERS AND STORMS RIDING ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.  THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE EVENING...MAINTAINING THE SHOWERS...BUT THEN
IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE
EXITING THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLEARING
BEHIND THE PCPN TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS
HIGH...SO EXPECT FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  BUT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BECOME TOO DENSE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA.

CLEARING ON SUNDAY MAY BE SLOW AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.  THE THINKING
IS THE HIGH SUN ANGLE WITH HELP BURN THESE CLOUDS OFF.  BUT IT MAY
TAKE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...AND PERHAPS NOT
UNTIL THE EVENING FOR THE SE CWA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A GRADUALLY WARMING
TREND AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN.  HIGHS SUNDAY UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80...AND WITH MORE SUNSHINE MONDAY WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE THEME OF THE LONG TERM IS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER/STORM EACH DAY. MOST OF THE TIME WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT
OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALL OCCUR
AS WE STILL EXPECT UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE ERN PORTION OF
NORTH AMERICA AS A STRONG TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT.

TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY WITH H850
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR STORM IS A BIT LOWER FOR MID WEEK COMPARED TO THE FCST
YESTERDAY AS THE WAVE OF INTEREST IS SHOWN TO DAMPEN OUT QUICKER AND
BE LESS OF A FACTOR. WE WILL HAVE A GENERAL SRLY FLOW IN PLACE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ADVECTING FAIRLY MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY COULD BUILD AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EACH DAY THAT A
SHOWER/STORM COULD POP WITH ANY KIND OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARY THAT MAY
BE PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY HIGH AND WE WILL BE COOLING OFF
GRADUALLY TONIGHT. THUS I FEATURED THE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOPING SOONER. IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE
WE SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT. AVIATORS WITH FLIGHT PLANS TONIGHT SHOULD
MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE AROUND TO
START THE NIGHT...BUT THE RISK FOR THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. MOIST LOW LEVELS COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
CAMS JUST BEFORE SUNSET DID NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. WILL
KEEP THE AREAS OF FOG GOING FOR NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK SO WINDS AND RESULTING WAVES SHOULD REMAIN LOW
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST LOCATIONS SAW LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.  MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LARGELY DRY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63/JK MARINE...JK
MARINE...MJS





000
FXUS63 KGRR 300211
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1011 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END OVERNIGHT...BUT ONE CAN
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG BY SUNDAY MORNING.  AFTER THE FOG BURNS
OFF...THE REST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.  MONDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

THE REST OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MOSTLY DRY...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
IT SHOULD BE A WARM WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO FEATURE SOME
HIGHER POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS I
DOWNPLAYED THE RISK DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY AROUND. SO FAR THE
CELLS HAVE REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW. I DID FEATURE FOG DEVELOPING
WITH THE VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AFTER SOME SUNDAY MORNING FOG...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS
QUIET.

A WEAKENING FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH SOME LEFT OVER
SHOWERS AND STORMS RIDING ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.  THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE EVENING...MAINTAINING THE SHOWERS...BUT THEN
IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE
EXITING THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLEARING
BEHIND THE PCPN TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS
HIGH...SO EXPECT FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  BUT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BECOME TOO DENSE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA.

CLEARING ON SUNDAY MAY BE SLOW AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.  THE THINKING
IS THE HIGH SUN ANGLE WITH HELP BURN THESE CLOUDS OFF.  BUT IT MAY
TAKE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...AND PERHAPS NOT
UNTIL THE EVENING FOR THE SE CWA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A GRADUALLY WARMING
TREND AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN.  HIGHS SUNDAY UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80...AND WITH MORE SUNSHINE MONDAY WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE THEME OF THE LONG TERM IS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER/STORM EACH DAY. MOST OF THE TIME WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT
OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALL OCCUR
AS WE STILL EXPECT UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE ERN PORTION OF
NORTH AMERICA AS A STRONG TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT.

TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY WITH H850
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR STORM IS A BIT LOWER FOR MID WEEK COMPARED TO THE FCST
YESTERDAY AS THE WAVE OF INTEREST IS SHOWN TO DAMPEN OUT QUICKER AND
BE LESS OF A FACTOR. WE WILL HAVE A GENERAL SRLY FLOW IN PLACE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ADVECTING FAIRLY MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY COULD BUILD AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EACH DAY THAT A
SHOWER/STORM COULD POP WITH ANY KIND OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARY THAT MAY
BE PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY HIGH AND WE WILL BE COOLING OFF
GRADUALLY TONIGHT. THUS I FEATURED THE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOPING SOONER. IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE
WE SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT. AVIATORS WITH FLIGHT PLANS TONIGHT SHOULD
MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE AROUND TO
START THE NIGHT...BUT THE RISK FOR THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. MOIST LOW LEVELS COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
CAMS JUST BEFORE SUNSET DID NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. WILL
KEEP THE AREAS OF FOG GOING FOR NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK SO WINDS AND RESULTING WAVES SHOULD REMAIN LOW
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST LOCATIONS SAW LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.  MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LARGELY DRY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63/JK MARINE...JK
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 292346
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
746 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END OVERNIGHT...BUT ONE CAN
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG BY SUNDAY MORNING.  AFTER THE FOG BURNS
OFF...THE REST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.  MONDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

THE REST OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MOSTLY DRY...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
IT SHOULD BE A WARM WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AFTER SOME SUNDAY MORNING FOG...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS
QUIET.

A WEAKENING FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH SOME LEFT OVER
SHOWERS AND STORMS RIDING ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.  THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE EVENING...MAINTAINING THE SHOWERS...BUT THEN
IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE
EXITING THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLEARING
BEHIND THE PCPN TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS
HIGH...SO EXPECT FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  BUT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BECOME TOO DENSE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA.

CLEARING ON SUNDAY MAY BE SLOW AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.  THE THINKING
IS THE HIGH SUN ANGLE WITH HELP BURN THESE CLOUDS OFF.  BUT IT MAY
TAKE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...AND PERHAPS NOT
UNTIL THE EVENING FOR THE SE CWA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A GRADUALLY WARMING
TREND AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN.  HIGHS SUNDAY UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80...AND WITH MORE SUNSHINE MONDAY WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE THEME OF THE LONG TERM IS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER/STORM EACH DAY. MOST OF THE TIME WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT
OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALL OCCUR
AS WE STILL EXPECT UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE ERN PORTION OF
NORTH AMERICA AS A STRONG TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT.

TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY WITH H850
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR STORM IS A BIT LOWER FOR MID WEEK COMPARED TO THE FCST
YESTERDAY AS THE WAVE OF INTEREST IS SHOWN TO DAMPEN OUT QUICKER AND
BE LESS OF A FACTOR. WE WILL HAVE A GENERAL SRLY FLOW IN PLACE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ADVECTING FAIRLY MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY COULD BUILD AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EACH DAY THAT A
SHOWER/STORM COULD POP WITH ANY KIND OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARY THAT MAY
BE PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY HIGH AND WE WILL BE COOLING OFF
GRADUALLY TONIGHT. THUS I FEATURED THE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOPING SOONER. IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE
WE SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT. AVIATORS WITH FLIGHT PLANS TONIGHT SHOULD
MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE AROUND TO
START THE NIGHT...BUT THE RISK FOR THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AFTER THE RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING THE
LAKE WILL BECOME QUIET.  WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS KEEPING
WAVES ON THE LOW SIDE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST LOCATIONS SAW LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.  MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LARGELY DRY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63/JK MARINE...JK





000
FXUS63 KGRR 292346
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
746 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END OVERNIGHT...BUT ONE CAN
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG BY SUNDAY MORNING.  AFTER THE FOG BURNS
OFF...THE REST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.  MONDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

THE REST OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MOSTLY DRY...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
IT SHOULD BE A WARM WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AFTER SOME SUNDAY MORNING FOG...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS
QUIET.

A WEAKENING FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH SOME LEFT OVER
SHOWERS AND STORMS RIDING ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.  THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE EVENING...MAINTAINING THE SHOWERS...BUT THEN
IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE
EXITING THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLEARING
BEHIND THE PCPN TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS
HIGH...SO EXPECT FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  BUT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BECOME TOO DENSE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA.

CLEARING ON SUNDAY MAY BE SLOW AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.  THE THINKING
IS THE HIGH SUN ANGLE WITH HELP BURN THESE CLOUDS OFF.  BUT IT MAY
TAKE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...AND PERHAPS NOT
UNTIL THE EVENING FOR THE SE CWA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A GRADUALLY WARMING
TREND AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN.  HIGHS SUNDAY UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80...AND WITH MORE SUNSHINE MONDAY WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE THEME OF THE LONG TERM IS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER/STORM EACH DAY. MOST OF THE TIME WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT
OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALL OCCUR
AS WE STILL EXPECT UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE ERN PORTION OF
NORTH AMERICA AS A STRONG TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT.

TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY WITH H850
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR STORM IS A BIT LOWER FOR MID WEEK COMPARED TO THE FCST
YESTERDAY AS THE WAVE OF INTEREST IS SHOWN TO DAMPEN OUT QUICKER AND
BE LESS OF A FACTOR. WE WILL HAVE A GENERAL SRLY FLOW IN PLACE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ADVECTING FAIRLY MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY COULD BUILD AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EACH DAY THAT A
SHOWER/STORM COULD POP WITH ANY KIND OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARY THAT MAY
BE PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY HIGH AND WE WILL BE COOLING OFF
GRADUALLY TONIGHT. THUS I FEATURED THE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOPING SOONER. IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE
WE SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT. AVIATORS WITH FLIGHT PLANS TONIGHT SHOULD
MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE AROUND TO
START THE NIGHT...BUT THE RISK FOR THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AFTER THE RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING THE
LAKE WILL BECOME QUIET.  WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS KEEPING
WAVES ON THE LOW SIDE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST LOCATIONS SAW LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.  MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LARGELY DRY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63/JK MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291904
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END OVERNIGHT...BUT ONE CAN
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG BY SUNDAY MORNING.  AFTER THE FOG BURNS
OFF...THE REST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.  MONDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

THE REST OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MOSTLY DRY...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
IT SHOULD BE A WARM WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AFTER SOME SUNDAY MORNING FOG...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS
QUIET.

A WEAKENING FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH SOME LEFT OVER
SHOWERS AND STORMS RIDING ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.  THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE EVENING...MAINTAINING THE SHOWERS...BUT THEN
IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE
EXITING THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLEARING
BEHIND THE PCPN TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS
HIGH...SO EXPECT FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  BUT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BECOME TOO DENSE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA.

CLEARING ON SUNDAY MAY BE SLOW AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.  THE THINKING
IS THE HIGH SUN ANGLE WITH HELP BURN THESE CLOUDS OFF.  BUT IT MAY
TAKE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...AND PERHAPS NOT
UNTIL THE EVENING FOR THE SE CWA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A GRADUALLY WARMING
TREND AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN.  HIGHS SUNDAY UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80...AND WITH MORE SUNSHINE MONDAY WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE THEME OF THE LONG TERM IS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER/STORM EACH DAY. MOST OF THE TIME WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT
OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALL OCCUR
AS WE STILL EXPECT UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE ERN PORTION OF
NORTH AMERICA AS A STRONG TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT.

TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY WITH H850
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR STORM IS A BIT LOWER FOR MID WEEK COMPARED TO THE FCST
YESTERDAY AS THE WAVE OF INTEREST IS SHOWN TO DAMPEN OUT QUICKER AND
BE LESS OF A FACTOR. WE WILL HAVE A GENERAL SRLY FLOW IN PLACE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ADVECTING FAIRLY MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY COULD BUILD AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EACH DAY THAT A
SHOWER/STORM COULD POP WITH ANY KIND OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARY THAT MAY
BE PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN AS THIS OCCURS...CIGS ARE LOWERING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS WI IS STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
A WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING CIGS TO CONTINUE TO
LOWER...AND SOME FOG TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP WITH LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT ALL SITES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND WILL LAST
THROUGH SUNRISE SUN MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AFTER THE RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING THE
LAKE WILL BECOME QUIET.  WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS KEEPING
WAVES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST LOCATIONS SAW LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.  MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LARGELY DRY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63/JK MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291904
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END OVERNIGHT...BUT ONE CAN
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG BY SUNDAY MORNING.  AFTER THE FOG BURNS
OFF...THE REST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.  MONDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

THE REST OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MOSTLY DRY...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
IT SHOULD BE A WARM WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AFTER SOME SUNDAY MORNING FOG...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS
QUIET.

A WEAKENING FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH SOME LEFT OVER
SHOWERS AND STORMS RIDING ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.  THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE EVENING...MAINTAINING THE SHOWERS...BUT THEN
IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE
EXITING THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLEARING
BEHIND THE PCPN TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS
HIGH...SO EXPECT FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  BUT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BECOME TOO DENSE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA.

CLEARING ON SUNDAY MAY BE SLOW AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.  THE THINKING
IS THE HIGH SUN ANGLE WITH HELP BURN THESE CLOUDS OFF.  BUT IT MAY
TAKE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...AND PERHAPS NOT
UNTIL THE EVENING FOR THE SE CWA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A GRADUALLY WARMING
TREND AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN.  HIGHS SUNDAY UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80...AND WITH MORE SUNSHINE MONDAY WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE THEME OF THE LONG TERM IS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER/STORM EACH DAY. MOST OF THE TIME WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT
OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALL OCCUR
AS WE STILL EXPECT UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE ERN PORTION OF
NORTH AMERICA AS A STRONG TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT.

TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY WITH H850
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR STORM IS A BIT LOWER FOR MID WEEK COMPARED TO THE FCST
YESTERDAY AS THE WAVE OF INTEREST IS SHOWN TO DAMPEN OUT QUICKER AND
BE LESS OF A FACTOR. WE WILL HAVE A GENERAL SRLY FLOW IN PLACE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ADVECTING FAIRLY MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY COULD BUILD AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EACH DAY THAT A
SHOWER/STORM COULD POP WITH ANY KIND OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARY THAT MAY
BE PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN AS THIS OCCURS...CIGS ARE LOWERING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS WI IS STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
A WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING CIGS TO CONTINUE TO
LOWER...AND SOME FOG TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP WITH LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT ALL SITES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND WILL LAST
THROUGH SUNRISE SUN MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AFTER THE RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING THE
LAKE WILL BECOME QUIET.  WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS KEEPING
WAVES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST LOCATIONS SAW LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.  MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LARGELY DRY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63/JK MARINE...JK





000
FXUS63 KGRR 291904
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END OVERNIGHT...BUT ONE CAN
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG BY SUNDAY MORNING.  AFTER THE FOG BURNS
OFF...THE REST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.  MONDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

THE REST OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MOSTLY DRY...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
IT SHOULD BE A WARM WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AFTER SOME SUNDAY MORNING FOG...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS
QUIET.

A WEAKENING FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH SOME LEFT OVER
SHOWERS AND STORMS RIDING ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.  THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE EVENING...MAINTAINING THE SHOWERS...BUT THEN
IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE
EXITING THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLEARING
BEHIND THE PCPN TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS
HIGH...SO EXPECT FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  BUT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BECOME TOO DENSE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA.

CLEARING ON SUNDAY MAY BE SLOW AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.  THE THINKING
IS THE HIGH SUN ANGLE WITH HELP BURN THESE CLOUDS OFF.  BUT IT MAY
TAKE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...AND PERHAPS NOT
UNTIL THE EVENING FOR THE SE CWA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A GRADUALLY WARMING
TREND AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN.  HIGHS SUNDAY UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80...AND WITH MORE SUNSHINE MONDAY WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE THEME OF THE LONG TERM IS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER/STORM EACH DAY. MOST OF THE TIME WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT
OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALL OCCUR
AS WE STILL EXPECT UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE ERN PORTION OF
NORTH AMERICA AS A STRONG TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT.

TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY WITH H850
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR STORM IS A BIT LOWER FOR MID WEEK COMPARED TO THE FCST
YESTERDAY AS THE WAVE OF INTEREST IS SHOWN TO DAMPEN OUT QUICKER AND
BE LESS OF A FACTOR. WE WILL HAVE A GENERAL SRLY FLOW IN PLACE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ADVECTING FAIRLY MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY COULD BUILD AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EACH DAY THAT A
SHOWER/STORM COULD POP WITH ANY KIND OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARY THAT MAY
BE PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN AS THIS OCCURS...CIGS ARE LOWERING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS WI IS STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
A WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING CIGS TO CONTINUE TO
LOWER...AND SOME FOG TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP WITH LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT ALL SITES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND WILL LAST
THROUGH SUNRISE SUN MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AFTER THE RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING THE
LAKE WILL BECOME QUIET.  WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS KEEPING
WAVES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST LOCATIONS SAW LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.  MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LARGELY DRY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63/JK MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291904
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END OVERNIGHT...BUT ONE CAN
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG BY SUNDAY MORNING.  AFTER THE FOG BURNS
OFF...THE REST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.  MONDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

THE REST OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MOSTLY DRY...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
IT SHOULD BE A WARM WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AFTER SOME SUNDAY MORNING FOG...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS
QUIET.

A WEAKENING FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH SOME LEFT OVER
SHOWERS AND STORMS RIDING ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.  THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE EVENING...MAINTAINING THE SHOWERS...BUT THEN
IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE
EXITING THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLEARING
BEHIND THE PCPN TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS
HIGH...SO EXPECT FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  BUT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BECOME TOO DENSE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA.

CLEARING ON SUNDAY MAY BE SLOW AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.  THE THINKING
IS THE HIGH SUN ANGLE WITH HELP BURN THESE CLOUDS OFF.  BUT IT MAY
TAKE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...AND PERHAPS NOT
UNTIL THE EVENING FOR THE SE CWA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A GRADUALLY WARMING
TREND AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN.  HIGHS SUNDAY UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80...AND WITH MORE SUNSHINE MONDAY WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE THEME OF THE LONG TERM IS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER/STORM EACH DAY. MOST OF THE TIME WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT
OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALL OCCUR
AS WE STILL EXPECT UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE ERN PORTION OF
NORTH AMERICA AS A STRONG TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT.

TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY WITH H850
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR STORM IS A BIT LOWER FOR MID WEEK COMPARED TO THE FCST
YESTERDAY AS THE WAVE OF INTEREST IS SHOWN TO DAMPEN OUT QUICKER AND
BE LESS OF A FACTOR. WE WILL HAVE A GENERAL SRLY FLOW IN PLACE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ADVECTING FAIRLY MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY COULD BUILD AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EACH DAY THAT A
SHOWER/STORM COULD POP WITH ANY KIND OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARY THAT MAY
BE PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN AS THIS OCCURS...CIGS ARE LOWERING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS WI IS STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
A WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING CIGS TO CONTINUE TO
LOWER...AND SOME FOG TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP WITH LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT ALL SITES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND WILL LAST
THROUGH SUNRISE SUN MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AFTER THE RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING THE
LAKE WILL BECOME QUIET.  WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS KEEPING
WAVES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST LOCATIONS SAW LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.  MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LARGELY DRY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63/JK MARINE...JK





000
FXUS63 KGRR 291739
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOWERED MAX TEMPS GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND RAIN. GENERALLY
UPPER 60S NW TO MID 70S SE.

THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AROUND A QUARTER INCH
OF RAIN BY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

BUMPED UP POPS FOR TODAY BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS THAT
BRING THE AXIS OF STEADIER RAIN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW CENTERED IN IOWA. THE FRONT
SLOWLY DISSIPATES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST WITH
SHOWERS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION IS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

HEIGHTS BUILD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. KEPT THAT AREA DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN DON`T LOOK VERY GOOD NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DO.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGD BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THAT MEANS A
COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS
WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME ENCROACHING ON LOWER MICHIGAN. IT
ALSO MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. H8 TEMPS WARM FROM AROUND 16C TO 18C
WHICH PUTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE MODELS SHOW ONE SHORT WAVE MAKING AN ATTEMPT AT PLOWING THROUGH
THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE/LL INCLUDE LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS BUT NOT REAL EXCITED ABOUT THIS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PRETTY MUCH IN CONTROL OF SW LWR MI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN AS THIS OCCURS...CIGS ARE LOWERING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS WI IS STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
A WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING CIGS TO CONTINUE TO
LOWER...AND SOME FOG TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP WITH LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT ALL SITES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND WILL LAST
THROUGH SUNRISE SUN MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN LAST NIGHT INTO TODAY.
THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...OSTUNO




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291739
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOWERED MAX TEMPS GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND RAIN. GENERALLY
UPPER 60S NW TO MID 70S SE.

THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AROUND A QUARTER INCH
OF RAIN BY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

BUMPED UP POPS FOR TODAY BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS THAT
BRING THE AXIS OF STEADIER RAIN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW CENTERED IN IOWA. THE FRONT
SLOWLY DISSIPATES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST WITH
SHOWERS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION IS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

HEIGHTS BUILD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. KEPT THAT AREA DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN DON`T LOOK VERY GOOD NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DO.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGD BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THAT MEANS A
COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS
WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME ENCROACHING ON LOWER MICHIGAN. IT
ALSO MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. H8 TEMPS WARM FROM AROUND 16C TO 18C
WHICH PUTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE MODELS SHOW ONE SHORT WAVE MAKING AN ATTEMPT AT PLOWING THROUGH
THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE/LL INCLUDE LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS BUT NOT REAL EXCITED ABOUT THIS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PRETTY MUCH IN CONTROL OF SW LWR MI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN AS THIS OCCURS...CIGS ARE LOWERING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS WI IS STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
A WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING CIGS TO CONTINUE TO
LOWER...AND SOME FOG TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP WITH LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT ALL SITES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND WILL LAST
THROUGH SUNRISE SUN MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN LAST NIGHT INTO TODAY.
THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 291733
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
133 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOWERED MAX TEMPS GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND RAIN. GENERALLY
UPPER 60S NW TO MID 70S SE.

THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AROUND A QUARTER INCH
OF RAIN BY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

BUMPED UP POPS FOR TODAY BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS THAT
BRING THE AXIS OF STEADIER RAIN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW CENTERED IN IOWA. THE FRONT
SLOWLY DISSIPATES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST WITH
SHOWERS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION IS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

HEIGHTS BUILD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. KEPT THAT AREA DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN DON`T LOOK VERY GOOD NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DO.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGD BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THAT MEANS A
COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS
WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME ENCROACHING ON LOWER MICHIGAN. IT
ALSO MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. H8 TEMPS WARM FROM AROUND 16C TO 18C
WHICH PUTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE MODELS SHOW ONE SHORT WAVE MAKING AN ATTEMPT AT PLOWING THROUGH
THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE/LL INCLUDE LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS BUT NOT REAL EXCITED ABOUT THIS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PRETTY MUCH IN CONTROL OF SW LWR MI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN AS THIS OCCURS...CIGS ARE LOWERING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS WI IS STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
A WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING CIGS TO CONTINUE TO
LOWER...AND SOME FOG TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP WITH LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT ALL SITES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND WILL LAST
THROUGH SUNRISE SUN MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...OSTUNO




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291733
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
133 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOWERED MAX TEMPS GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND RAIN. GENERALLY
UPPER 60S NW TO MID 70S SE.

THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AROUND A QUARTER INCH
OF RAIN BY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

BUMPED UP POPS FOR TODAY BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS THAT
BRING THE AXIS OF STEADIER RAIN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW CENTERED IN IOWA. THE FRONT
SLOWLY DISSIPATES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST WITH
SHOWERS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION IS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

HEIGHTS BUILD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. KEPT THAT AREA DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN DON`T LOOK VERY GOOD NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DO.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGD BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THAT MEANS A
COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS
WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME ENCROACHING ON LOWER MICHIGAN. IT
ALSO MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. H8 TEMPS WARM FROM AROUND 16C TO 18C
WHICH PUTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE MODELS SHOW ONE SHORT WAVE MAKING AN ATTEMPT AT PLOWING THROUGH
THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE/LL INCLUDE LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS BUT NOT REAL EXCITED ABOUT THIS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PRETTY MUCH IN CONTROL OF SW LWR MI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN AS THIS OCCURS...CIGS ARE LOWERING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS WI IS STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
A WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING CIGS TO CONTINUE TO
LOWER...AND SOME FOG TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP WITH LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT ALL SITES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND WILL LAST
THROUGH SUNRISE SUN MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 291516
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1116 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOWERED MAX TEMPS GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND RAIN. GENERALLY
UPPER 60S NW TO MID 70S SE.

THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AROUND A QUARTER INCH
OF RAIN BY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

BUMPED UP POPS FOR TODAY BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS THAT
BRING THE AXIS OF STEADIER RAIN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW CENTERED IN IOWA. THE FRONT
SLOWLY DISSIPATES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST WITH
SHOWERS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION IS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

HEIGHTS BUILD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. KEPT THAT AREA DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN DON`T LOOK VERY GOOD NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DO.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGD BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THAT MEANS A
COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS
WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME ENCROACHING ON LOWER MICHIGAN. IT
ALSO MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. H8 TEMPS WARM FROM AROUND 16C TO 18C
WHICH PUTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE MODELS SHOW ONE SHORT WAVE MAKING AN ATTEMPT AT PLOWING THROUGH
THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE/LL INCLUDE LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS BUT NOT REAL EXCITED ABOUT THIS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PRETTY MUCH IN CONTROL OF SW LWR MI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND SOME MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED BY
THIS EVENING...FALLING TO IFR LATER TONIGHT AND PERHAPS LIFR. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 291516
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1116 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOWERED MAX TEMPS GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND RAIN. GENERALLY
UPPER 60S NW TO MID 70S SE.

THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AROUND A QUARTER INCH
OF RAIN BY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

BUMPED UP POPS FOR TODAY BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS THAT
BRING THE AXIS OF STEADIER RAIN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW CENTERED IN IOWA. THE FRONT
SLOWLY DISSIPATES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST WITH
SHOWERS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION IS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

HEIGHTS BUILD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. KEPT THAT AREA DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN DON`T LOOK VERY GOOD NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DO.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGD BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THAT MEANS A
COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS
WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME ENCROACHING ON LOWER MICHIGAN. IT
ALSO MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. H8 TEMPS WARM FROM AROUND 16C TO 18C
WHICH PUTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE MODELS SHOW ONE SHORT WAVE MAKING AN ATTEMPT AT PLOWING THROUGH
THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE/LL INCLUDE LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS BUT NOT REAL EXCITED ABOUT THIS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PRETTY MUCH IN CONTROL OF SW LWR MI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND SOME MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED BY
THIS EVENING...FALLING TO IFR LATER TONIGHT AND PERHAPS LIFR. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...OSTUNO




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291156
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
739 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

BUMPED UP POPS FOR TODAY BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS THAT
BRING THE AXIS OF STEADIER RAIN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW CENTERED IN IOWA. THE FRONT
SLOWLY DISSIPATES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST WITH
SHOWERS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION IS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

HEIGHTS BUILD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. KEPT THAT AREA DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN DON`T LOOK VERY GOOD NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DO.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGD BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THAT MEANS A
COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS
WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME ENCROACHING ON LOWER MICHIGAN. IT
ALSO MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. H8 TEMPS WARM FROM AROUND 16C TO 18C
WHICH PUTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE MODELS SHOW ONE SHORT WAVE MAKING AN ATTEMPT AT PLOWING THROUGH
THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE/LL INCLUDE LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS BUT NOT REAL EXCITED ABOUT THIS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PRETTY MUCH IN CONTROL OF SW LWR MI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND SOME MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED BY
THIS EVENING...FALLING TO IFR LATER TONIGHT AND PERHAPS LIFR. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 291156
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
739 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

BUMPED UP POPS FOR TODAY BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS THAT
BRING THE AXIS OF STEADIER RAIN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW CENTERED IN IOWA. THE FRONT
SLOWLY DISSIPATES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST WITH
SHOWERS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION IS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

HEIGHTS BUILD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. KEPT THAT AREA DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN DON`T LOOK VERY GOOD NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DO.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGD BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THAT MEANS A
COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS
WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME ENCROACHING ON LOWER MICHIGAN. IT
ALSO MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. H8 TEMPS WARM FROM AROUND 16C TO 18C
WHICH PUTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE MODELS SHOW ONE SHORT WAVE MAKING AN ATTEMPT AT PLOWING THROUGH
THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE/LL INCLUDE LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS BUT NOT REAL EXCITED ABOUT THIS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PRETTY MUCH IN CONTROL OF SW LWR MI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND SOME MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED BY
THIS EVENING...FALLING TO IFR LATER TONIGHT AND PERHAPS LIFR. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 291156
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
739 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

BUMPED UP POPS FOR TODAY BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS THAT
BRING THE AXIS OF STEADIER RAIN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW CENTERED IN IOWA. THE FRONT
SLOWLY DISSIPATES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST WITH
SHOWERS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION IS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

HEIGHTS BUILD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. KEPT THAT AREA DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN DON`T LOOK VERY GOOD NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DO.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGD BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THAT MEANS A
COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS
WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME ENCROACHING ON LOWER MICHIGAN. IT
ALSO MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. H8 TEMPS WARM FROM AROUND 16C TO 18C
WHICH PUTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE MODELS SHOW ONE SHORT WAVE MAKING AN ATTEMPT AT PLOWING THROUGH
THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE/LL INCLUDE LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS BUT NOT REAL EXCITED ABOUT THIS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PRETTY MUCH IN CONTROL OF SW LWR MI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND SOME MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED BY
THIS EVENING...FALLING TO IFR LATER TONIGHT AND PERHAPS LIFR. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...OSTUNO




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291156
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
739 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

BUMPED UP POPS FOR TODAY BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS THAT
BRING THE AXIS OF STEADIER RAIN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW CENTERED IN IOWA. THE FRONT
SLOWLY DISSIPATES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST WITH
SHOWERS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION IS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

HEIGHTS BUILD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. KEPT THAT AREA DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN DON`T LOOK VERY GOOD NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DO.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGD BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THAT MEANS A
COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS
WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME ENCROACHING ON LOWER MICHIGAN. IT
ALSO MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. H8 TEMPS WARM FROM AROUND 16C TO 18C
WHICH PUTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE MODELS SHOW ONE SHORT WAVE MAKING AN ATTEMPT AT PLOWING THROUGH
THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE/LL INCLUDE LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS BUT NOT REAL EXCITED ABOUT THIS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PRETTY MUCH IN CONTROL OF SW LWR MI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND SOME MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED BY
THIS EVENING...FALLING TO IFR LATER TONIGHT AND PERHAPS LIFR. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...OSTUNO




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291139
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
739 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

BUMPED UP POPS FOR TODAY BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS THAT
BRING THE AXIS OF STEADIER RAIN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW CENTERED IN IOWA. THE FRONT
SLOWLY DISSIPATES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST WITH
SHOWERS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION IS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

HEIGHTS BUILD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. KEPT THAT AREA DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN DON`T LOOK VERY GOOD NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DO.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGD BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THAT MEANS A
COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS
WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME ENCROACHING ON LOWER MICHIGAN. IT
ALSO MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. H8 TEMPS WARM FROM AROUND 16C TO 18C
WHICH PUTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE MODELS SHOW ONE SHORT WAVE MAKING AN ATTEMPT AT PLOWING THROUGH
THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE/LL INCLUDE LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS BUT NOT REAL EXCITED ABOUT THIS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PRETTY MUCH IN CONTROL OF SW LWR MI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND SOME MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED
BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS
TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...OSTUNO




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291139
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
739 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

BUMPED UP POPS FOR TODAY BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS THAT
BRING THE AXIS OF STEADIER RAIN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW CENTERED IN IOWA. THE FRONT
SLOWLY DISSIPATES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST WITH
SHOWERS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION IS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

HEIGHTS BUILD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. KEPT THAT AREA DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN DON`T LOOK VERY GOOD NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DO.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGD BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THAT MEANS A
COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS
WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME ENCROACHING ON LOWER MICHIGAN. IT
ALSO MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. H8 TEMPS WARM FROM AROUND 16C TO 18C
WHICH PUTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE MODELS SHOW ONE SHORT WAVE MAKING AN ATTEMPT AT PLOWING THROUGH
THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE/LL INCLUDE LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS BUT NOT REAL EXCITED ABOUT THIS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PRETTY MUCH IN CONTROL OF SW LWR MI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND SOME MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED
BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS
TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 290729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

BUMPED UP POPS FOR TODAY BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS THAT
BRING THE AXIS OF STEADIER RAIN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW CENTERED IN IOWA. THE FRONT
SLOWLY DISSIPATES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST WITH
SHOWERS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION IS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

HEIGHTS BUILD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. KEPT THAT AREA DRY FOR NOW.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN DON`T LOOK VERY GOOD NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DO.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGD BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THAT MEANS A
COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS
WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME ENCROACHING ON LOWER MICHIGAN. IT
ALSO MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. H8 TEMPS WARM FROM AROUND 16C TO 18C
WHICH PUTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE MODELS SHOW ONE SHORT WAVE MAKING AN ATTEMPT AT PLOWING THROUGH
THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE/LL INCLUDE LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS BUT NOT REAL EXCITED ABOUT THIS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PRETTY MUCH IN CONTROL OF SW LWR MI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LIGHT RAIN IS SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
WHILE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...VSBYS MAY DROP TO AROUND
5SM -SHRA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. PCPN WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...OSTUNO




000
FXUS63 KGRR 290729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

BUMPED UP POPS FOR TODAY BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS THAT
BRING THE AXIS OF STEADIER RAIN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW CENTERED IN IOWA. THE FRONT
SLOWLY DISSIPATES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST WITH
SHOWERS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION IS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

HEIGHTS BUILD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. KEPT THAT AREA DRY FOR NOW.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN DON`T LOOK VERY GOOD NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DO.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGD BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THAT MEANS A
COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS
WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME ENCROACHING ON LOWER MICHIGAN. IT
ALSO MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. H8 TEMPS WARM FROM AROUND 16C TO 18C
WHICH PUTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE MODELS SHOW ONE SHORT WAVE MAKING AN ATTEMPT AT PLOWING THROUGH
THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE/LL INCLUDE LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS BUT NOT REAL EXCITED ABOUT THIS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PRETTY MUCH IN CONTROL OF SW LWR MI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LIGHT RAIN IS SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
WHILE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...VSBYS MAY DROP TO AROUND
5SM -SHRA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. PCPN WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 290729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

BUMPED UP POPS FOR TODAY BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS THAT
BRING THE AXIS OF STEADIER RAIN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW CENTERED IN IOWA. THE FRONT
SLOWLY DISSIPATES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST WITH
SHOWERS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION IS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

HEIGHTS BUILD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. KEPT THAT AREA DRY FOR NOW.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN DON`T LOOK VERY GOOD NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DO.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGD BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THAT MEANS A
COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS
WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME ENCROACHING ON LOWER MICHIGAN. IT
ALSO MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. H8 TEMPS WARM FROM AROUND 16C TO 18C
WHICH PUTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE MODELS SHOW ONE SHORT WAVE MAKING AN ATTEMPT AT PLOWING THROUGH
THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE/LL INCLUDE LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS BUT NOT REAL EXCITED ABOUT THIS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PRETTY MUCH IN CONTROL OF SW LWR MI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LIGHT RAIN IS SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
WHILE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...VSBYS MAY DROP TO AROUND
5SM -SHRA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. PCPN WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...OSTUNO




000
FXUS63 KGRR 290537
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
137 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PERIODS OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE
DIMINISHING SATURDAY EVENING.  MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER.  TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH
DAY.  RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A LARGE AREA RAIN COVERED MUCH OF WISCONSIN INTO IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL ARRIVE INTO SW MI LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY.  OVERALL THE SYSTEM LOOKS WEAKER NOW...WITH LESS JET
DYNAMICS...SO RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.

A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  A LOW LEVEL JET IS NOW PROGGED TO NOSE
INTO NORTHERN LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AND IT/S ENHANCEMENT
TO THE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA.  HOWEVER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES OVER SW MI THIS EVENING AND
DOES NOT EXIT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.  SO THE UPPER FORCING SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE PCPN PATTERN INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING.  I INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE POSITION OF
THE UPPER JET.  THEN I ALSO INCREASED POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH.  OVERALL...
RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD MAINLY BE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.

THE FRONT GRADUALLY WASHES OUT NEAR THE MI/IN BORDER SUNDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY KEEP A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE SE CWA.  ELSEWHERE SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MILD...HOWEVER I DID LOWERED MAX TEMPS FOR
SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT. HIGHS SHOULD BE
AROUND 70 IN MOST PLACES...75 TO 80 ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

E CONTINUE TO EXPECT A CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FCST BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL CHCS OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FCST...BUT NOTHING MAJOR LOOKS TO BE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WE WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM ON MON AND TUE WITH WARM AND MAINLY
DRY DAYS FOR THE STATE. UPPER RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
AREA AS A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE PACIFIC NW
AND THE CANADIAN WEST COAST. H850 TEMPS OF MID TEENS C WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WARM
TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD CAP ANY PCPN FROM OCCURRING.

WED THROUGH THU...AND POTENTIALLY INTO FRI WE WILL SEE TEMPS
STABILIZE A BIT AND SOME SMALL CHCS FOR CONVECTION DEVELOP. WE WILL
SEE A SHORT WAVE BE EJECTED FROM THE WRN TROUGH AND TRY TO KNOCK
DOWN THE RIDGE A BIT DURING THIS TIME. H850 TEMPS WILL HOLD OR
SLIGHTLY DROP WITH THE SLIGHT LOWERING OF UPPER HEIGHTS WITH THE
TROUGH. THE CHCS FOR RAIN DO NOT LOOK BIG RIGHT NOW AND WOULD BE
MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE WITH A CAP ERODING A BIT.

ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES BY THE AREA...THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD
ONCE AGAIN AS THE WRN TROUGH IS REINFORCED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPS ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN PCPN CHCS. THIS
COULD TAKE PLACE AS EARLY AS FRI...OR OCCUR JUST AFTER THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LIGHT RAIN IS SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
WHILE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...VSBYS MAY DROP TO AROUND
5SM -SHRA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. PCPN WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OTHER THEN THE CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...THE LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY CALM.  WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 290537
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
137 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PERIODS OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE
DIMINISHING SATURDAY EVENING.  MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER.  TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH
DAY.  RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A LARGE AREA RAIN COVERED MUCH OF WISCONSIN INTO IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL ARRIVE INTO SW MI LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY.  OVERALL THE SYSTEM LOOKS WEAKER NOW...WITH LESS JET
DYNAMICS...SO RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.

A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  A LOW LEVEL JET IS NOW PROGGED TO NOSE
INTO NORTHERN LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AND IT/S ENHANCEMENT
TO THE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA.  HOWEVER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES OVER SW MI THIS EVENING AND
DOES NOT EXIT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.  SO THE UPPER FORCING SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE PCPN PATTERN INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING.  I INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE POSITION OF
THE UPPER JET.  THEN I ALSO INCREASED POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH.  OVERALL...
RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD MAINLY BE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.

THE FRONT GRADUALLY WASHES OUT NEAR THE MI/IN BORDER SUNDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY KEEP A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE SE CWA.  ELSEWHERE SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MILD...HOWEVER I DID LOWERED MAX TEMPS FOR
SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT. HIGHS SHOULD BE
AROUND 70 IN MOST PLACES...75 TO 80 ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

E CONTINUE TO EXPECT A CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FCST BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL CHCS OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FCST...BUT NOTHING MAJOR LOOKS TO BE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WE WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM ON MON AND TUE WITH WARM AND MAINLY
DRY DAYS FOR THE STATE. UPPER RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
AREA AS A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE PACIFIC NW
AND THE CANADIAN WEST COAST. H850 TEMPS OF MID TEENS C WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WARM
TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD CAP ANY PCPN FROM OCCURRING.

WED THROUGH THU...AND POTENTIALLY INTO FRI WE WILL SEE TEMPS
STABILIZE A BIT AND SOME SMALL CHCS FOR CONVECTION DEVELOP. WE WILL
SEE A SHORT WAVE BE EJECTED FROM THE WRN TROUGH AND TRY TO KNOCK
DOWN THE RIDGE A BIT DURING THIS TIME. H850 TEMPS WILL HOLD OR
SLIGHTLY DROP WITH THE SLIGHT LOWERING OF UPPER HEIGHTS WITH THE
TROUGH. THE CHCS FOR RAIN DO NOT LOOK BIG RIGHT NOW AND WOULD BE
MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE WITH A CAP ERODING A BIT.

ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES BY THE AREA...THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD
ONCE AGAIN AS THE WRN TROUGH IS REINFORCED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPS ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN PCPN CHCS. THIS
COULD TAKE PLACE AS EARLY AS FRI...OR OCCUR JUST AFTER THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LIGHT RAIN IS SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
WHILE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...VSBYS MAY DROP TO AROUND
5SM -SHRA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. PCPN WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OTHER THEN THE CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...THE LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY CALM.  WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK





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