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000
FXUS63 KGRR 230219
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1019 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL START OUT NICE ON SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER.  BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE WET PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK...BEFORE DRYING
OUT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IT LOOKS SOMEWHAT DENSE ON SATELLITE. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE FROM THE NORTHWEST THOUGH...SO THINKING SOME OF THE CLOUD
WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST. GIVEN WE ARE ONLY AN HOUR AFTER SUNSET
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL LET THE FORECAST PLAY OUT AND GIVE IT A
CHANCE TO VERIFY. THE DRY AIR WILL ONLY NEED A FEW HOURS OF
CLEARING LATE TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LIKE A ROCK. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
REACH FORECAST VALUES UP THERE...WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE
FREEZE WARNING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
96...AND A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE FAR NE COUNTIES.  CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S...AND THERE MAY BE
A FEW 20S FAR NE.

QUIET WEATHER INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THEN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.  WE WILL SEE TEMPS REBOUND INTO
THE LOW AND MID 70S FOR SAT AND SUN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES OVER
BEHIND THE HIGH.

ADDED A 20 POP TO AREAS NORTH OF I-96 SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL SEE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING
NORTHWARD.  ALSO SEEING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH SUPPORTS
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.

THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO CENTRAL LOWER SUNDAY...AND SOUTHWEST LOWER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS THE TIMING USED TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS.  INSTABILITY
NEVER BECOMES STRONG AS THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND.  SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
WILL FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EACH DAY... THE WHOLE WEEK CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH
SEVERAL DRY PERIODS INBETWEEN THE SCATTERED CONVECTION.

AFTER THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE MONDAY... OFFERING A
HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS... WE STAY IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER ON THE DAILY COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SFC FRONT LOOKS RATHER WEAK AND
ILL DEFINED.

THE GFS/ECMWF DO SEEM TO AGREE ON A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
PERHAPS THIS FEATURE WILL OFFER A MORE WIDESPREAD/HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF RAIN... IF THE CURRENT SOLUTION HOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 15000FT SHOULD BE
THE ONLY CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN LOW TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKE OVER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAY
UNDER 20 KTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE START OF A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. RISES ON AREA
RIVERS CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043>046-
     051-052-057>059-067.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ039-040.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 230219
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1019 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL START OUT NICE ON SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER.  BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE WET PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK...BEFORE DRYING
OUT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IT LOOKS SOMEWHAT DENSE ON SATELLITE. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE FROM THE NORTHWEST THOUGH...SO THINKING SOME OF THE CLOUD
WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST. GIVEN WE ARE ONLY AN HOUR AFTER SUNSET
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL LET THE FORECAST PLAY OUT AND GIVE IT A
CHANCE TO VERIFY. THE DRY AIR WILL ONLY NEED A FEW HOURS OF
CLEARING LATE TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LIKE A ROCK. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
REACH FORECAST VALUES UP THERE...WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE
FREEZE WARNING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
96...AND A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE FAR NE COUNTIES.  CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S...AND THERE MAY BE
A FEW 20S FAR NE.

QUIET WEATHER INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THEN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.  WE WILL SEE TEMPS REBOUND INTO
THE LOW AND MID 70S FOR SAT AND SUN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES OVER
BEHIND THE HIGH.

ADDED A 20 POP TO AREAS NORTH OF I-96 SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL SEE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING
NORTHWARD.  ALSO SEEING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH SUPPORTS
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.

THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO CENTRAL LOWER SUNDAY...AND SOUTHWEST LOWER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS THE TIMING USED TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS.  INSTABILITY
NEVER BECOMES STRONG AS THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND.  SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
WILL FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EACH DAY... THE WHOLE WEEK CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH
SEVERAL DRY PERIODS INBETWEEN THE SCATTERED CONVECTION.

AFTER THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE MONDAY... OFFERING A
HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS... WE STAY IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER ON THE DAILY COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SFC FRONT LOOKS RATHER WEAK AND
ILL DEFINED.

THE GFS/ECMWF DO SEEM TO AGREE ON A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
PERHAPS THIS FEATURE WILL OFFER A MORE WIDESPREAD/HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF RAIN... IF THE CURRENT SOLUTION HOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 15000FT SHOULD BE
THE ONLY CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN LOW TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKE OVER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAY
UNDER 20 KTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE START OF A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. RISES ON AREA
RIVERS CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043>046-
     051-052-057>059-067.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ039-040.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...JK





000
FXUS63 KGRR 230017
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
817 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL START OUT NICE ON SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER.  BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE WET PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK...BEFORE DRYING
OUT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
96...AND A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE FAR NE COUNTIES.  CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S...AND THERE MAY BE
A FEW 20S FAR NE.

QUIET WEATHER INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THEN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.  WE WILL SEE TEMPS REBOUND INTO
THE LOW AND MID 70S FOR SAT AND SUN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES OVER
BEHIND THE HIGH.

ADDED A 20 POP TO AREAS NORTH OF I-96 SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL SEE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING
NORTHWARD.  ALSO SEEING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH SUPPORTS
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.

THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO CENTRAL LOWER SUNDAY...AND SOUTHWEST LOWER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS THE TIMING USED TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS.  INSTABILITY
NEVER BECOMES STRONG AS THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND.  SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
WILL FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EACH DAY... THE WHOLE WEEK CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH
SEVERAL DRY PERIODS INBETWEEN THE SCATTERED CONVECTION.

AFTER THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE MONDAY... OFFERING A
HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS... WE STAY IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER ON THE DAILY COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SFC FRONT LOOKS RATHER WEAK AND
ILL DEFINED.

THE GFS/ECMWF DO SEEM TO AGREE ON A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
PERHAPS THIS FEATURE WILL OFFER A MORE WIDESPREAD/HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF RAIN... IF THE CURRENT SOLUTION HOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 15000FT SHOULD BE
THE ONLY CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN LOW TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKE OVER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAY
UNDER 20 KTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE START OF A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. RISES ON AREA
RIVERS CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ037-038-043>046-051-052-057>059-067.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ039-040.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 230017
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
817 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL START OUT NICE ON SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER.  BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE WET PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK...BEFORE DRYING
OUT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
96...AND A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE FAR NE COUNTIES.  CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S...AND THERE MAY BE
A FEW 20S FAR NE.

QUIET WEATHER INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THEN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.  WE WILL SEE TEMPS REBOUND INTO
THE LOW AND MID 70S FOR SAT AND SUN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES OVER
BEHIND THE HIGH.

ADDED A 20 POP TO AREAS NORTH OF I-96 SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL SEE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING
NORTHWARD.  ALSO SEEING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH SUPPORTS
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.

THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO CENTRAL LOWER SUNDAY...AND SOUTHWEST LOWER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS THE TIMING USED TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS.  INSTABILITY
NEVER BECOMES STRONG AS THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND.  SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
WILL FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EACH DAY... THE WHOLE WEEK CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH
SEVERAL DRY PERIODS INBETWEEN THE SCATTERED CONVECTION.

AFTER THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE MONDAY... OFFERING A
HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS... WE STAY IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER ON THE DAILY COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SFC FRONT LOOKS RATHER WEAK AND
ILL DEFINED.

THE GFS/ECMWF DO SEEM TO AGREE ON A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
PERHAPS THIS FEATURE WILL OFFER A MORE WIDESPREAD/HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF RAIN... IF THE CURRENT SOLUTION HOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 15000FT SHOULD BE
THE ONLY CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN LOW TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKE OVER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAY
UNDER 20 KTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE START OF A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. RISES ON AREA
RIVERS CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ037-038-043>046-051-052-057>059-067.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ039-040.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...JK





000
FXUS63 KGRR 230017
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
817 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL START OUT NICE ON SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER.  BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE WET PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK...BEFORE DRYING
OUT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
96...AND A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE FAR NE COUNTIES.  CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S...AND THERE MAY BE
A FEW 20S FAR NE.

QUIET WEATHER INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THEN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.  WE WILL SEE TEMPS REBOUND INTO
THE LOW AND MID 70S FOR SAT AND SUN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES OVER
BEHIND THE HIGH.

ADDED A 20 POP TO AREAS NORTH OF I-96 SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL SEE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING
NORTHWARD.  ALSO SEEING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH SUPPORTS
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.

THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO CENTRAL LOWER SUNDAY...AND SOUTHWEST LOWER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS THE TIMING USED TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS.  INSTABILITY
NEVER BECOMES STRONG AS THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND.  SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
WILL FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EACH DAY... THE WHOLE WEEK CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH
SEVERAL DRY PERIODS INBETWEEN THE SCATTERED CONVECTION.

AFTER THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE MONDAY... OFFERING A
HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS... WE STAY IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER ON THE DAILY COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SFC FRONT LOOKS RATHER WEAK AND
ILL DEFINED.

THE GFS/ECMWF DO SEEM TO AGREE ON A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
PERHAPS THIS FEATURE WILL OFFER A MORE WIDESPREAD/HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF RAIN... IF THE CURRENT SOLUTION HOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 15000FT SHOULD BE
THE ONLY CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN LOW TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKE OVER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAY
UNDER 20 KTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE START OF A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. RISES ON AREA
RIVERS CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ037-038-043>046-051-052-057>059-067.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ039-040.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...JK





000
FXUS63 KGRR 230017
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
817 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL START OUT NICE ON SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER.  BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE WET PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK...BEFORE DRYING
OUT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
96...AND A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE FAR NE COUNTIES.  CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S...AND THERE MAY BE
A FEW 20S FAR NE.

QUIET WEATHER INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THEN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.  WE WILL SEE TEMPS REBOUND INTO
THE LOW AND MID 70S FOR SAT AND SUN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES OVER
BEHIND THE HIGH.

ADDED A 20 POP TO AREAS NORTH OF I-96 SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL SEE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING
NORTHWARD.  ALSO SEEING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH SUPPORTS
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.

THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO CENTRAL LOWER SUNDAY...AND SOUTHWEST LOWER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS THE TIMING USED TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS.  INSTABILITY
NEVER BECOMES STRONG AS THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND.  SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
WILL FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EACH DAY... THE WHOLE WEEK CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH
SEVERAL DRY PERIODS INBETWEEN THE SCATTERED CONVECTION.

AFTER THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE MONDAY... OFFERING A
HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS... WE STAY IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER ON THE DAILY COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SFC FRONT LOOKS RATHER WEAK AND
ILL DEFINED.

THE GFS/ECMWF DO SEEM TO AGREE ON A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
PERHAPS THIS FEATURE WILL OFFER A MORE WIDESPREAD/HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF RAIN... IF THE CURRENT SOLUTION HOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 15000FT SHOULD BE
THE ONLY CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN LOW TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKE OVER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAY
UNDER 20 KTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE START OF A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. RISES ON AREA
RIVERS CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ037-038-043>046-051-052-057>059-067.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ039-040.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 221930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL START OUT NICE ON SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER.  BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE WET PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK...BEFORE DRYING
OUT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
96...AND A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE FAR NE COUNTIES.  CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S...AND THERE MAY BE
A FEW 20S FAR NE.

QUIET WEATHER INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THEN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.  WE WILL SEE TEMPS REBOUND INTO
THE LOW AND MID 70S FOR SAT AND SUN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES OVER
BEHIND THE HIGH.

ADDED A 20 POP TO AREAS NORTH OF I-96 SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL SEE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING
NORTHWARD.  ALSO SEEING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH SUPPORTS
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.

THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO CENTRAL LOWER SUNDAY...AND SOUTHWEST LOWER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS THE TIMING USED TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS.  INSTABILITY
NEVER BECOMES STRONG AS THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND.  SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
WILL FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EACH DAY... THE WHOLE WEEK CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH
SEVERAL DRY PERIODS INBETWEEN THE SCATTERED CONVECTION.

AFTER THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE MONDAY... OFFERING A
HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS... WE STAY IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER ON THE DAILY COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
CONVECTION ESPECIALY SINCE THE SFC FRONT LOOKS RATHER WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED.

THE GFS/ECMWF DO SEEM TO AGREE ON A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
PERHAPS THIS FEATURE WILL OFFER A MORE WIDESPREAD/HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF RAIN... IF THE CURRENT SOLUTION HOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS DOMINATING OUR
WEATHER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT VFR WEATHER/CLR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
GUST TO 20 KTS THROUGH SUNSET THEN GO CALM TONIGHT. BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO AROUND 10
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN LOW TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKE OVER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAY
UNDER 20 KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE START OF A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. RISES ON AREA
RIVERS CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ037-038-043>046-051-052-057>059-067.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ039-040.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...JK





000
FXUS63 KGRR 221930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL START OUT NICE ON SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER.  BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE WET PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK...BEFORE DRYING
OUT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
96...AND A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE FAR NE COUNTIES.  CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S...AND THERE MAY BE
A FEW 20S FAR NE.

QUIET WEATHER INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THEN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.  WE WILL SEE TEMPS REBOUND INTO
THE LOW AND MID 70S FOR SAT AND SUN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES OVER
BEHIND THE HIGH.

ADDED A 20 POP TO AREAS NORTH OF I-96 SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL SEE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING
NORTHWARD.  ALSO SEEING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH SUPPORTS
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.

THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO CENTRAL LOWER SUNDAY...AND SOUTHWEST LOWER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS THE TIMING USED TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS.  INSTABILITY
NEVER BECOMES STRONG AS THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND.  SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
WILL FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EACH DAY... THE WHOLE WEEK CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH
SEVERAL DRY PERIODS INBETWEEN THE SCATTERED CONVECTION.

AFTER THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE MONDAY... OFFERING A
HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS... WE STAY IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER ON THE DAILY COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
CONVECTION ESPECIALY SINCE THE SFC FRONT LOOKS RATHER WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED.

THE GFS/ECMWF DO SEEM TO AGREE ON A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
PERHAPS THIS FEATURE WILL OFFER A MORE WIDESPREAD/HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF RAIN... IF THE CURRENT SOLUTION HOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS DOMINATING OUR
WEATHER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT VFR WEATHER/CLR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
GUST TO 20 KTS THROUGH SUNSET THEN GO CALM TONIGHT. BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO AROUND 10
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN LOW TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKE OVER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAY
UNDER 20 KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE START OF A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. RISES ON AREA
RIVERS CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ037-038-043>046-051-052-057>059-067.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ039-040.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 221754
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
154 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN ON
SUNDAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS ON MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK
WILL SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. MAY NEED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND A FROST
ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST THE ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THERE.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN RESULT IN WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS SO THERE IS
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE RAINS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS LIMITED BY LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS MILD AND WET. A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A 40 KT LLJ CROSSING THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE MOST PCPN
OVER THE NRN CWA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER THE CWA
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE QUASI
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUGGY FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS DOMINATING OUR
WEATHER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT VFR WEATHER/CLR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
GUST TO 20 KTS THROUGH SUNSET THEN GO CALM TONIGHT. BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO AROUND 10
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY AND SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO 25 KNOTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE START OF A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. RISES ON AREA
RIVERS CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 221754
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
154 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN ON
SUNDAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS ON MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK
WILL SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. MAY NEED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND A FROST
ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST THE ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THERE.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN RESULT IN WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS SO THERE IS
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE RAINS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS LIMITED BY LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS MILD AND WET. A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A 40 KT LLJ CROSSING THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE MOST PCPN
OVER THE NRN CWA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER THE CWA
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE QUASI
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUGGY FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS DOMINATING OUR
WEATHER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT VFR WEATHER/CLR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
GUST TO 20 KTS THROUGH SUNSET THEN GO CALM TONIGHT. BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO AROUND 10
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY AND SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO 25 KNOTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE START OF A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. RISES ON AREA
RIVERS CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...OSTUNO




000
FXUS63 KGRR 221754
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
154 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN ON
SUNDAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS ON MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK
WILL SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. MAY NEED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND A FROST
ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST THE ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THERE.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN RESULT IN WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS SO THERE IS
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE RAINS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS LIMITED BY LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS MILD AND WET. A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A 40 KT LLJ CROSSING THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE MOST PCPN
OVER THE NRN CWA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER THE CWA
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE QUASI
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUGGY FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS DOMINATING OUR
WEATHER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT VFR WEATHER/CLR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
GUST TO 20 KTS THROUGH SUNSET THEN GO CALM TONIGHT. BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO AROUND 10
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY AND SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO 25 KNOTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE START OF A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. RISES ON AREA
RIVERS CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...OSTUNO




000
FXUS63 KGRR 221626
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN ON
SUNDAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS ON MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK
WILL SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. MAY NEED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND A FROST
ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST THE ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THERE.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN RESULT IN WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS SO THERE IS
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE RAINS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS LIMITED BY LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS MILD AND WET. A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A 40 KT LLJ CROSSING THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE MOST PCPN
OVER THE NRN CWA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER THE CWA
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE QUASI
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUGGY FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHWEST TODAY AOB 10 KNOTS AND SHOULD GO CALM AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY AND SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO 25 KNOTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE START OF A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. RISES ON AREA
RIVERS CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 221626
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN ON
SUNDAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS ON MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK
WILL SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. MAY NEED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND A FROST
ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST THE ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THERE.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN RESULT IN WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS SO THERE IS
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE RAINS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS LIMITED BY LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS MILD AND WET. A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A 40 KT LLJ CROSSING THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE MOST PCPN
OVER THE NRN CWA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER THE CWA
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE QUASI
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUGGY FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHWEST TODAY AOB 10 KNOTS AND SHOULD GO CALM AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY AND SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO 25 KNOTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE START OF A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. RISES ON AREA
RIVERS CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...OSTUNO




000
FXUS63 KGRR 221626
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN ON
SUNDAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS ON MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK
WILL SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. MAY NEED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND A FROST
ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST THE ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THERE.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN RESULT IN WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS SO THERE IS
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE RAINS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS LIMITED BY LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS MILD AND WET. A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A 40 KT LLJ CROSSING THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE MOST PCPN
OVER THE NRN CWA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER THE CWA
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE QUASI
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUGGY FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHWEST TODAY AOB 10 KNOTS AND SHOULD GO CALM AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY AND SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO 25 KNOTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE START OF A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. RISES ON AREA
RIVERS CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...OSTUNO




000
FXUS63 KGRR 221626
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN ON
SUNDAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS ON MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK
WILL SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. MAY NEED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND A FROST
ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST THE ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THERE.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN RESULT IN WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS SO THERE IS
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE RAINS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS LIMITED BY LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS MILD AND WET. A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A 40 KT LLJ CROSSING THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE MOST PCPN
OVER THE NRN CWA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER THE CWA
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE QUASI
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUGGY FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHWEST TODAY AOB 10 KNOTS AND SHOULD GO CALM AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY AND SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO 25 KNOTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE START OF A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. RISES ON AREA
RIVERS CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 221105
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
705 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN ON
SUNDAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS ON MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK
WILL SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. MAY NEED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND A FROST
ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST THE ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THERE.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN RESULT IN WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS SO THERE IS
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE RAINS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS LIMITED BY LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS MILD AND WET. A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A 40 KT LLJ CROSSING THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE MOST PCPN
OVER THE NRN CWA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER THE CWA
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE QUASI
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUGGY FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHWEST TODAY AOB 10 KNOTS AND SHOULD GO CALM AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY AND SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO 25 KNOTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 220719
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
319 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN ON
SUNDAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS ON MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK
WILL SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. MAY NEED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND A FROST
ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST THE ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THERE.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN RESULT IN WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS SO THERE IS
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE RAINS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS LIMITED BY LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS MILD AND WET. A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A 40 KT LLJ CROSSING THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE MOST PCPN
OVER THE NRN CWA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER THE CWA
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE QUASI
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUGGY FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 09Z. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY AND SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...OSTUNO




000
FXUS63 KGRR 220719
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
319 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN ON
SUNDAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS ON MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK
WILL SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. MAY NEED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND A FROST
ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST THE ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THERE.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN RESULT IN WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS SO THERE IS
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE RAINS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS LIMITED BY LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS MILD AND WET. A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A 40 KT LLJ CROSSING THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE MOST PCPN
OVER THE NRN CWA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER THE CWA
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE QUASI
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUGGY FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 09Z. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY AND SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...OSTUNO





000
FXUS63 KGRR 220719
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
319 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN ON
SUNDAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS ON MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK
WILL SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. MAY NEED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND A FROST
ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST THE ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THERE.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN RESULT IN WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS SO THERE IS
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE RAINS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS LIMITED BY LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS MILD AND WET. A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A 40 KT LLJ CROSSING THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE MOST PCPN
OVER THE NRN CWA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER THE CWA
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE QUASI
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUGGY FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 09Z. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY AND SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...OSTUNO




000
FXUS63 KGRR 220523
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
123 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH A COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND
60...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS EVEN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FROST SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARMER AND WETTER
PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST FORMATION IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF FROST ARE MORE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 9K FEET. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S. ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...CONFIRMED BY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR. A
SIMILAR AIRMASS YESTERDAY EVENING RESULTED IN A RAIN/SLEET MIX
MAINLY IN THE CHICAGO AREA. BUT PRECIP THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY NOT
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WET-BULBING.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THEY VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO
SET UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN.

ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
GOOD FROST CONDITIONS TO SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST RETURN
FLOW FINALLY SETS UP SATURDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THAT WE WILL FINALLY SEE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW RETREATS
AND WE GET INTO DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY
AWAY FROM LK MI... WITH PERHAPS 80 DEGREES AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID
FROM MONDAY ON.

PROLONGED WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WITH A FLOW OFF THE GULF AND A
QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. HOWEVER THE TIMING/LOCATION/DURATION OF
CONVECTIVE EPISODES AND DAILY POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT IS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE SFC WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 09Z. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

WAVES WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECASTED...MAINLY DUE TO THE
STRONGER FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE UPDATED FORECAST
REFLECTS THESE HIGHER VALUES. NO HEADLINE AS THE VALUES WERE BELOW
CRITERIA PLUS WITH THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THE WIND VALUES DROP OFF BEHIND IT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 220523
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
123 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH A COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND
60...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS EVEN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FROST SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARMER AND WETTER
PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST FORMATION IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF FROST ARE MORE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 9K FEET. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S. ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...CONFIRMED BY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR. A
SIMILAR AIRMASS YESTERDAY EVENING RESULTED IN A RAIN/SLEET MIX
MAINLY IN THE CHICAGO AREA. BUT PRECIP THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY NOT
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WET-BULBING.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THEY VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO
SET UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN.

ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
GOOD FROST CONDITIONS TO SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST RETURN
FLOW FINALLY SETS UP SATURDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THAT WE WILL FINALLY SEE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW RETREATS
AND WE GET INTO DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY
AWAY FROM LK MI... WITH PERHAPS 80 DEGREES AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID
FROM MONDAY ON.

PROLONGED WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WITH A FLOW OFF THE GULF AND A
QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. HOWEVER THE TIMING/LOCATION/DURATION OF
CONVECTIVE EPISODES AND DAILY POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT IS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE SFC WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 09Z. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

WAVES WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECASTED...MAINLY DUE TO THE
STRONGER FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE UPDATED FORECAST
REFLECTS THESE HIGHER VALUES. NO HEADLINE AS THE VALUES WERE BELOW
CRITERIA PLUS WITH THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THE WIND VALUES DROP OFF BEHIND IT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...MJS





000
FXUS63 KGRR 220523
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
123 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH A COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND
60...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS EVEN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FROST SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARMER AND WETTER
PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST FORMATION IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF FROST ARE MORE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 9K FEET. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S. ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...CONFIRMED BY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR. A
SIMILAR AIRMASS YESTERDAY EVENING RESULTED IN A RAIN/SLEET MIX
MAINLY IN THE CHICAGO AREA. BUT PRECIP THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY NOT
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WET-BULBING.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THEY VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO
SET UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN.

ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
GOOD FROST CONDITIONS TO SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST RETURN
FLOW FINALLY SETS UP SATURDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THAT WE WILL FINALLY SEE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW RETREATS
AND WE GET INTO DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY
AWAY FROM LK MI... WITH PERHAPS 80 DEGREES AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID
FROM MONDAY ON.

PROLONGED WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WITH A FLOW OFF THE GULF AND A
QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. HOWEVER THE TIMING/LOCATION/DURATION OF
CONVECTIVE EPISODES AND DAILY POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT IS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE SFC WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 09Z. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

WAVES WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECASTED...MAINLY DUE TO THE
STRONGER FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE UPDATED FORECAST
REFLECTS THESE HIGHER VALUES. NO HEADLINE AS THE VALUES WERE BELOW
CRITERIA PLUS WITH THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THE WIND VALUES DROP OFF BEHIND IT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...MJS





000
FXUS63 KGRR 220523
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
123 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH A COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND
60...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS EVEN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FROST SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARMER AND WETTER
PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST FORMATION IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF FROST ARE MORE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 9K FEET. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S. ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...CONFIRMED BY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR. A
SIMILAR AIRMASS YESTERDAY EVENING RESULTED IN A RAIN/SLEET MIX
MAINLY IN THE CHICAGO AREA. BUT PRECIP THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY NOT
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WET-BULBING.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THEY VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO
SET UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN.

ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
GOOD FROST CONDITIONS TO SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST RETURN
FLOW FINALLY SETS UP SATURDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THAT WE WILL FINALLY SEE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW RETREATS
AND WE GET INTO DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY
AWAY FROM LK MI... WITH PERHAPS 80 DEGREES AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID
FROM MONDAY ON.

PROLONGED WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WITH A FLOW OFF THE GULF AND A
QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. HOWEVER THE TIMING/LOCATION/DURATION OF
CONVECTIVE EPISODES AND DAILY POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT IS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE SFC WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 09Z. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

WAVES WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECASTED...MAINLY DUE TO THE
STRONGER FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE UPDATED FORECAST
REFLECTS THESE HIGHER VALUES. NO HEADLINE AS THE VALUES WERE BELOW
CRITERIA PLUS WITH THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THE WIND VALUES DROP OFF BEHIND IT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 220115
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
915 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH A COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND
60...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS EVEN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FROST SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARMER AND WETTER
PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST FORMATION IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF FROST ARE MORE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 9K FEET. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S. ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...CONFIRMED BY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR. A
SIMILAR AIRMASS YESTERDAY EVENING RESULTED IN A RAIN/SLEET MIX
MAINLY IN THE CHICAGO AREA. BUT PRECIP THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY NOT
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WET-BULBING.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THEY VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO
SET UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN.

ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
GOOD FROST CONDITIONS TO SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST RETURN
FLOW FINALLY SETS UP SATURDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THAT WE WILL FINALLY SEE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW RETREATS
AND WE GET INTO DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY
AWAY FROM LK MI... WITH PERHAPS 80 DEGREES AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID
FROM MONDAY ON.

PROLONGED WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WITH A FLOW OFF THE GULF AND A
QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. HOWEVER THE TIMING/LOCATION/DURATION OF
CONVECTIVE EPISODES AND DAILY POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT IS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE SFC WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

BAND OF SHOWERS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT. VFR WEATHER IS FORECASTED TO
PREVAIL...AND A FEW GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE
PASSAGE OF THESE SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
THAT WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

WAVES WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECASTED...MAINLY DUE TO THE
STRONGER FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE UPDATED FORECAST
REFLECTS THESE HIGHER VALUES. NO HEADLINE AS THE VALUES WERE BELOW
CRITERIA PLUS WITH THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THE WIND VALUES DROP OFF BEHIND IT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...MJS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 212328
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
728 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH A COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND
60...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS EVEN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FROST SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARMER AND WETTER
PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST FORMATION IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF FROST ARE MORE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 9K FEET. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S. ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...CONFIRMED BY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR. A
SIMILAR AIRMASS YESTERDAY EVENING RESULTED IN A RAIN/SLEET MIX
MAINLY IN THE CHICAGO AREA. BUT PRECIP THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY NOT
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WET-BULBING.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THEY VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO
SET UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN.

ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
GOOD FROST CONDITIONS TO SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST RETURN
FLOW FINALLY SETS UP SATURDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THAT WE WILL FINALLY SEE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW RETREATS
AND WE GET INTO DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY
AWAY FROM LK MI... WITH PERHAPS 80 DEGREES AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID
FROM MONDAY ON.

PROLONGED WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WITH A FLOW OFF THE GULF AND A
QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. HOWEVER THE TIMING/LOCATION/DURATION OF
CONVECTIVE EPISODES AND DAILY POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT IS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE SFC WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

BAND OF SHOWERS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT. VFR WEATHER IS FORECASTED TO
PREVAIL...AND A FEW GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE
PASSAGE OF THESE SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
THAT WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WAVES IN
THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
AND VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL
BE 1 TO 2 FEET. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH
WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT
STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SATURDAY IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...EBW





000
FXUS63 KGRR 212328
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
728 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH A COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND
60...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS EVEN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FROST SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARMER AND WETTER
PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST FORMATION IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF FROST ARE MORE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 9K FEET. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S. ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...CONFIRMED BY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR. A
SIMILAR AIRMASS YESTERDAY EVENING RESULTED IN A RAIN/SLEET MIX
MAINLY IN THE CHICAGO AREA. BUT PRECIP THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY NOT
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WET-BULBING.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THEY VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO
SET UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN.

ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
GOOD FROST CONDITIONS TO SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST RETURN
FLOW FINALLY SETS UP SATURDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THAT WE WILL FINALLY SEE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW RETREATS
AND WE GET INTO DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY
AWAY FROM LK MI... WITH PERHAPS 80 DEGREES AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID
FROM MONDAY ON.

PROLONGED WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WITH A FLOW OFF THE GULF AND A
QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. HOWEVER THE TIMING/LOCATION/DURATION OF
CONVECTIVE EPISODES AND DAILY POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT IS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE SFC WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

BAND OF SHOWERS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT. VFR WEATHER IS FORECASTED TO
PREVAIL...AND A FEW GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE
PASSAGE OF THESE SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
THAT WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WAVES IN
THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
AND VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL
BE 1 TO 2 FEET. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH
WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT
STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SATURDAY IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...EBW




000
FXUS63 KGRR 212328
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
728 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH A COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND
60...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS EVEN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FROST SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARMER AND WETTER
PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST FORMATION IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF FROST ARE MORE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 9K FEET. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S. ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...CONFIRMED BY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR. A
SIMILAR AIRMASS YESTERDAY EVENING RESULTED IN A RAIN/SLEET MIX
MAINLY IN THE CHICAGO AREA. BUT PRECIP THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY NOT
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WET-BULBING.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THEY VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO
SET UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN.

ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
GOOD FROST CONDITIONS TO SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST RETURN
FLOW FINALLY SETS UP SATURDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THAT WE WILL FINALLY SEE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW RETREATS
AND WE GET INTO DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY
AWAY FROM LK MI... WITH PERHAPS 80 DEGREES AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID
FROM MONDAY ON.

PROLONGED WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WITH A FLOW OFF THE GULF AND A
QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. HOWEVER THE TIMING/LOCATION/DURATION OF
CONVECTIVE EPISODES AND DAILY POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT IS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE SFC WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

BAND OF SHOWERS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT. VFR WEATHER IS FORECASTED TO
PREVAIL...AND A FEW GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE
PASSAGE OF THESE SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
THAT WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WAVES IN
THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
AND VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL
BE 1 TO 2 FEET. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH
WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT
STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SATURDAY IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...EBW




000
FXUS63 KGRR 212328
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
728 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH A COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND
60...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS EVEN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FROST SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARMER AND WETTER
PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST FORMATION IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF FROST ARE MORE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 9K FEET. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S. ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...CONFIRMED BY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR. A
SIMILAR AIRMASS YESTERDAY EVENING RESULTED IN A RAIN/SLEET MIX
MAINLY IN THE CHICAGO AREA. BUT PRECIP THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY NOT
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WET-BULBING.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THEY VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO
SET UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN.

ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
GOOD FROST CONDITIONS TO SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST RETURN
FLOW FINALLY SETS UP SATURDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THAT WE WILL FINALLY SEE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW RETREATS
AND WE GET INTO DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY
AWAY FROM LK MI... WITH PERHAPS 80 DEGREES AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID
FROM MONDAY ON.

PROLONGED WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WITH A FLOW OFF THE GULF AND A
QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. HOWEVER THE TIMING/LOCATION/DURATION OF
CONVECTIVE EPISODES AND DAILY POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT IS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE SFC WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

BAND OF SHOWERS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT. VFR WEATHER IS FORECASTED TO
PREVAIL...AND A FEW GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE
PASSAGE OF THESE SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
THAT WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WAVES IN
THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
AND VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL
BE 1 TO 2 FEET. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH
WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT
STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SATURDAY IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...EBW





000
FXUS63 KGRR 211929
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH A COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND
60...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS EVEN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FROST SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARMER AND WETTER
PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST FORMATION IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF FROST ARE MORE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 9K FEET. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S. ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...CONFIRMED BY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR. A
SIMILAR AIRMASS YESTERDAY EVENING RESULTED IN A RAIN/SLEET MIX
MAINLY IN THE CHICAGO AREA. BUT PRECIP THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY NOT
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WET-BULBING.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THEY VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO
SET UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN.

ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
GOOD FROST CONDITIONS TO SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST RETURN
FLOW FINALLY SETS UP SATURDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THAT WE WILL FINALLY SEE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW RETREATS
AND WE GET INTO DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY
AWAY FROM LK MI... WITH PERHAPS 80 DEGREES AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID
FROM MONDAY ON.

PROLONGED WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WITH A FLOW OFF THE GULF AND A
QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. HOWEVER THE TIMING/LOCATION/DURATION OF
CONVECTIVE EPISODES AND DAILY POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT IS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE SFC WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AREA OF CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 12,000 FT WILL MOVE OUT
THIS AFTERNOON... AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE
BASES BETWEEN 6000 AND 10,000 FT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES BUT NO REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS. CLEAR SKIES
WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS BAND OF CLOUDS FOR LATER NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING AND TURNING NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WAVES IN
THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
AND VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL
BE 1 TO 2 FEET. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH
WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT
STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SATURDAY IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...EBW





000
FXUS63 KGRR 211929
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH A COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND
60...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS EVEN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FROST SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARMER AND WETTER
PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST FORMATION IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF FROST ARE MORE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 9K FEET. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S. ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...CONFIRMED BY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR. A
SIMILAR AIRMASS YESTERDAY EVENING RESULTED IN A RAIN/SLEET MIX
MAINLY IN THE CHICAGO AREA. BUT PRECIP THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY NOT
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WET-BULBING.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THEY VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO
SET UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN.

ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
GOOD FROST CONDITIONS TO SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST RETURN
FLOW FINALLY SETS UP SATURDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THAT WE WILL FINALLY SEE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW RETREATS
AND WE GET INTO DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY
AWAY FROM LK MI... WITH PERHAPS 80 DEGREES AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID
FROM MONDAY ON.

PROLONGED WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WITH A FLOW OFF THE GULF AND A
QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. HOWEVER THE TIMING/LOCATION/DURATION OF
CONVECTIVE EPISODES AND DAILY POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT IS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE SFC WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AREA OF CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 12,000 FT WILL MOVE OUT
THIS AFTERNOON... AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE
BASES BETWEEN 6000 AND 10,000 FT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES BUT NO REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS. CLEAR SKIES
WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS BAND OF CLOUDS FOR LATER NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING AND TURNING NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WAVES IN
THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
AND VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL
BE 1 TO 2 FEET. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH
WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT
STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SATURDAY IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...EBW




000
FXUS63 KGRR 211929
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH A COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND
60...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS EVEN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FROST SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARMER AND WETTER
PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST FORMATION IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF FROST ARE MORE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 9K FEET. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S. ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...CONFIRMED BY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR. A
SIMILAR AIRMASS YESTERDAY EVENING RESULTED IN A RAIN/SLEET MIX
MAINLY IN THE CHICAGO AREA. BUT PRECIP THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY NOT
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WET-BULBING.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THEY VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO
SET UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN.

ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
GOOD FROST CONDITIONS TO SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST RETURN
FLOW FINALLY SETS UP SATURDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THAT WE WILL FINALLY SEE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW RETREATS
AND WE GET INTO DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY
AWAY FROM LK MI... WITH PERHAPS 80 DEGREES AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID
FROM MONDAY ON.

PROLONGED WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WITH A FLOW OFF THE GULF AND A
QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. HOWEVER THE TIMING/LOCATION/DURATION OF
CONVECTIVE EPISODES AND DAILY POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT IS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE SFC WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AREA OF CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 12,000 FT WILL MOVE OUT
THIS AFTERNOON... AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE
BASES BETWEEN 6000 AND 10,000 FT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES BUT NO REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS. CLEAR SKIES
WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS BAND OF CLOUDS FOR LATER NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING AND TURNING NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WAVES IN
THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
AND VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL
BE 1 TO 2 FEET. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH
WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT
STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SATURDAY IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...EBW





000
FXUS63 KGRR 211929
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH A COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND
60...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS EVEN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FROST SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARMER AND WETTER
PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST FORMATION IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF FROST ARE MORE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 9K FEET. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S. ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...CONFIRMED BY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR. A
SIMILAR AIRMASS YESTERDAY EVENING RESULTED IN A RAIN/SLEET MIX
MAINLY IN THE CHICAGO AREA. BUT PRECIP THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY NOT
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WET-BULBING.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THEY VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO
SET UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN.

ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
GOOD FROST CONDITIONS TO SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST RETURN
FLOW FINALLY SETS UP SATURDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THAT WE WILL FINALLY SEE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW RETREATS
AND WE GET INTO DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY
AWAY FROM LK MI... WITH PERHAPS 80 DEGREES AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID
FROM MONDAY ON.

PROLONGED WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WITH A FLOW OFF THE GULF AND A
QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. HOWEVER THE TIMING/LOCATION/DURATION OF
CONVECTIVE EPISODES AND DAILY POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT IS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE SFC WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AREA OF CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 12,000 FT WILL MOVE OUT
THIS AFTERNOON... AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE
BASES BETWEEN 6000 AND 10,000 FT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES BUT NO REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS. CLEAR SKIES
WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS BAND OF CLOUDS FOR LATER NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING AND TURNING NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WAVES IN
THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
AND VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL
BE 1 TO 2 FEET. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH
WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT
STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SATURDAY IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...EBW




000
FXUS63 KGRR 211753
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
153 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER A MILD
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF FROST ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
AND SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON SHOWER POTENTIAL LATER TODAY ALONG WITH FROST
POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO REACH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND INTO THE STRAITS AREA BY 18Z
TODAY. THE ONLY MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS IN THE MID LEVELS...H500 TO
H800...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN INVERTED V SHAPE.

WHILE ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO WISCONSIN...SOME
OF THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
AS THEY PROGRESS ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING LDM BETWEEN 21Z-00Z
AND GRR BY 03Z OR SO. GIVEN THE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
DOWN LOW...SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED IT APPEARS. THE HI
RES CAMS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY FIZZLES AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER THAN THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL LOWER. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE AND WITH CAA
UNDERWAY THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE AREAS OF FROST MAINLY FOR THE
ROUTE 10 CORRIDOR. SATURDAY MORNING MAY FEATURE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FROST UNFORTUNATELY FOR AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF A BIG RAPIDS TO MOUNT
PLEASANT LINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY WHEN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH WITH
IT...BUT A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK SO THUNDER THREAT IS LIMITED.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES EAST. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES THE
MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE UNDERDONE BUT
WERE LEFT ALONE FOR NOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
THOSE DAYS COULD BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AREA OF CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 12,000 FT WILL MOVE OUT
THIS AFTERNOON... AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE
BASES BETWEEN 6000 AND 10,000 FT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES BUT NO REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS. CLEAR SKIES
WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS BAND OF CLOUDS FOR LATER NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING AND TURNING NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION NOR FOG IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SOME WAVES COULD APPROACH 2 TO 3 FEET AT TIMES
TODAY BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...HOVING




000
FXUS63 KGRR 211753
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
153 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER A MILD
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF FROST ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
AND SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON SHOWER POTENTIAL LATER TODAY ALONG WITH FROST
POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO REACH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND INTO THE STRAITS AREA BY 18Z
TODAY. THE ONLY MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS IN THE MID LEVELS...H500 TO
H800...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN INVERTED V SHAPE.

WHILE ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO WISCONSIN...SOME
OF THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
AS THEY PROGRESS ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING LDM BETWEEN 21Z-00Z
AND GRR BY 03Z OR SO. GIVEN THE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
DOWN LOW...SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED IT APPEARS. THE HI
RES CAMS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY FIZZLES AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER THAN THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL LOWER. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE AND WITH CAA
UNDERWAY THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE AREAS OF FROST MAINLY FOR THE
ROUTE 10 CORRIDOR. SATURDAY MORNING MAY FEATURE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FROST UNFORTUNATELY FOR AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF A BIG RAPIDS TO MOUNT
PLEASANT LINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY WHEN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH WITH
IT...BUT A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK SO THUNDER THREAT IS LIMITED.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES EAST. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES THE
MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE UNDERDONE BUT
WERE LEFT ALONE FOR NOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
THOSE DAYS COULD BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AREA OF CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 12,000 FT WILL MOVE OUT
THIS AFTERNOON... AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE
BASES BETWEEN 6000 AND 10,000 FT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES BUT NO REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS. CLEAR SKIES
WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS BAND OF CLOUDS FOR LATER NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING AND TURNING NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION NOR FOG IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SOME WAVES COULD APPROACH 2 TO 3 FEET AT TIMES
TODAY BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...HOVING





000
FXUS63 KGRR 211753
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
153 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER A MILD
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF FROST ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
AND SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON SHOWER POTENTIAL LATER TODAY ALONG WITH FROST
POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO REACH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND INTO THE STRAITS AREA BY 18Z
TODAY. THE ONLY MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS IN THE MID LEVELS...H500 TO
H800...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN INVERTED V SHAPE.

WHILE ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO WISCONSIN...SOME
OF THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
AS THEY PROGRESS ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING LDM BETWEEN 21Z-00Z
AND GRR BY 03Z OR SO. GIVEN THE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
DOWN LOW...SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED IT APPEARS. THE HI
RES CAMS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY FIZZLES AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER THAN THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL LOWER. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE AND WITH CAA
UNDERWAY THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE AREAS OF FROST MAINLY FOR THE
ROUTE 10 CORRIDOR. SATURDAY MORNING MAY FEATURE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FROST UNFORTUNATELY FOR AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF A BIG RAPIDS TO MOUNT
PLEASANT LINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY WHEN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH WITH
IT...BUT A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK SO THUNDER THREAT IS LIMITED.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES EAST. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES THE
MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE UNDERDONE BUT
WERE LEFT ALONE FOR NOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
THOSE DAYS COULD BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AREA OF CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 12,000 FT WILL MOVE OUT
THIS AFTERNOON... AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE
BASES BETWEEN 6000 AND 10,000 FT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES BUT NO REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS. CLEAR SKIES
WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS BAND OF CLOUDS FOR LATER NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING AND TURNING NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION NOR FOG IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SOME WAVES COULD APPROACH 2 TO 3 FEET AT TIMES
TODAY BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...HOVING




000
FXUS63 KGRR 211640
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER A MILD
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF FROST ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
AND SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON SHOWER POTENTIAL LATER TODAY ALONG WITH FROST
POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO REACH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND INTO THE STRAITS AREA BY 18Z
TODAY. THE ONLY MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS IN THE MID LEVELS...H500 TO
H800...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN INVERTED V SHAPE.

WHILE ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO WISCONSIN...SOME
OF THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
AS THEY PROGRESS ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING LDM BETWEEN 21Z-00Z
AND GRR BY 03Z OR SO. GIVEN THE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
DOWN LOW...SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED IT APPEARS. THE HI
RES CAMS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY FIZZLES AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER THAN THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL LOWER. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE AND WITH CAA
UNDERWAY THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE AREAS OF FROST MAINLY FOR THE
ROUTE 10 CORRIDOR. SATURDAY MORNING MAY FEATURE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FROST UNFORTUNATELY FOR AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF A BIG RAPIDS TO MOUNT
PLEASANT LINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY WHEN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH WITH
IT...BUT A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK SO THUNDER THREAT IS LIMITED.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES EAST. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES THE
MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE UNDERDONE BUT
WERE LEFT ALONE FOR NOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
THOSE DAYS COULD BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 711 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION NOR FOG IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SOME WAVES COULD APPROACH 2 TO 3 FEET AT TIMES
TODAY BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...HOVING





000
FXUS63 KGRR 211640
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER A MILD
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF FROST ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
AND SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON SHOWER POTENTIAL LATER TODAY ALONG WITH FROST
POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO REACH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND INTO THE STRAITS AREA BY 18Z
TODAY. THE ONLY MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS IN THE MID LEVELS...H500 TO
H800...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN INVERTED V SHAPE.

WHILE ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO WISCONSIN...SOME
OF THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
AS THEY PROGRESS ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING LDM BETWEEN 21Z-00Z
AND GRR BY 03Z OR SO. GIVEN THE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
DOWN LOW...SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED IT APPEARS. THE HI
RES CAMS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY FIZZLES AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER THAN THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL LOWER. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE AND WITH CAA
UNDERWAY THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE AREAS OF FROST MAINLY FOR THE
ROUTE 10 CORRIDOR. SATURDAY MORNING MAY FEATURE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FROST UNFORTUNATELY FOR AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF A BIG RAPIDS TO MOUNT
PLEASANT LINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY WHEN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH WITH
IT...BUT A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK SO THUNDER THREAT IS LIMITED.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES EAST. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES THE
MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE UNDERDONE BUT
WERE LEFT ALONE FOR NOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
THOSE DAYS COULD BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 711 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION NOR FOG IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SOME WAVES COULD APPROACH 2 TO 3 FEET AT TIMES
TODAY BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...HOVING




000
FXUS63 KGRR 211640
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER A MILD
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF FROST ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
AND SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON SHOWER POTENTIAL LATER TODAY ALONG WITH FROST
POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO REACH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND INTO THE STRAITS AREA BY 18Z
TODAY. THE ONLY MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS IN THE MID LEVELS...H500 TO
H800...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN INVERTED V SHAPE.

WHILE ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO WISCONSIN...SOME
OF THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
AS THEY PROGRESS ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING LDM BETWEEN 21Z-00Z
AND GRR BY 03Z OR SO. GIVEN THE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
DOWN LOW...SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED IT APPEARS. THE HI
RES CAMS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY FIZZLES AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER THAN THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL LOWER. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE AND WITH CAA
UNDERWAY THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE AREAS OF FROST MAINLY FOR THE
ROUTE 10 CORRIDOR. SATURDAY MORNING MAY FEATURE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FROST UNFORTUNATELY FOR AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF A BIG RAPIDS TO MOUNT
PLEASANT LINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY WHEN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH WITH
IT...BUT A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK SO THUNDER THREAT IS LIMITED.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES EAST. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES THE
MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE UNDERDONE BUT
WERE LEFT ALONE FOR NOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
THOSE DAYS COULD BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 711 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION NOR FOG IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SOME WAVES COULD APPROACH 2 TO 3 FEET AT TIMES
TODAY BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...HOVING





000
FXUS63 KGRR 211640
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER A MILD
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF FROST ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
AND SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON SHOWER POTENTIAL LATER TODAY ALONG WITH FROST
POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO REACH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND INTO THE STRAITS AREA BY 18Z
TODAY. THE ONLY MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS IN THE MID LEVELS...H500 TO
H800...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN INVERTED V SHAPE.

WHILE ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO WISCONSIN...SOME
OF THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
AS THEY PROGRESS ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING LDM BETWEEN 21Z-00Z
AND GRR BY 03Z OR SO. GIVEN THE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
DOWN LOW...SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED IT APPEARS. THE HI
RES CAMS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY FIZZLES AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER THAN THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL LOWER. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE AND WITH CAA
UNDERWAY THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE AREAS OF FROST MAINLY FOR THE
ROUTE 10 CORRIDOR. SATURDAY MORNING MAY FEATURE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FROST UNFORTUNATELY FOR AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF A BIG RAPIDS TO MOUNT
PLEASANT LINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY WHEN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH WITH
IT...BUT A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK SO THUNDER THREAT IS LIMITED.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES EAST. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES THE
MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE UNDERDONE BUT
WERE LEFT ALONE FOR NOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
THOSE DAYS COULD BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 711 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION NOR FOG IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SOME WAVES COULD APPROACH 2 TO 3 FEET AT TIMES
TODAY BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...HOVING




000
FXUS63 KGRR 211111
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
711 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER A MILD
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF FROST ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
AND SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON SHOWER POTENTIAL LATER TODAY ALONG WITH FROST
POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO REACH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND INTO THE STRAITS AREA BY 18Z
TODAY. THE ONLY MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS IN THE MID LEVELS...H500 TO
H800...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN INVERTED V SHAPE.

WHILE ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO WISCONSIN...SOME
OF THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
AS THEY PROGRESS ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING LDM BETWEEN 21Z-00Z
AND GRR BY 03Z OR SO. GIVEN THE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
DOWN LOW...SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED IT APPEARS. THE HI
RES CAMS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY FIZZLES AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER THAN THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL LOWER. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE AND WITH CAA
UNDERWAY THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE AREAS OF FROST MAINLY FOR THE
ROUTE 10 CORRIDOR. SATURDAY MORNING MAY FEATURE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FROST UNFORTUNATELY FOR AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF A BIG RAPIDS TO MOUNT
PLEASANT LINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY WHEN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH WITH
IT...BUT A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK SO THUNDER THREAT IS LIMITED.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES EAST. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES THE
MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE UNDERDONE BUT
WERE LEFT ALONE FOR NOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
THOSE DAYS COULD BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 711 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION NOR FOG IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SOME WAVES COULD APPROACH 2 TO 3 FEET AT TIMES
TODAY BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...HOVING




000
FXUS63 KGRR 211111
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
711 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER A MILD
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF FROST ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
AND SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON SHOWER POTENTIAL LATER TODAY ALONG WITH FROST
POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO REACH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND INTO THE STRAITS AREA BY 18Z
TODAY. THE ONLY MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS IN THE MID LEVELS...H500 TO
H800...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN INVERTED V SHAPE.

WHILE ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO WISCONSIN...SOME
OF THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
AS THEY PROGRESS ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING LDM BETWEEN 21Z-00Z
AND GRR BY 03Z OR SO. GIVEN THE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
DOWN LOW...SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED IT APPEARS. THE HI
RES CAMS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY FIZZLES AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER THAN THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL LOWER. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE AND WITH CAA
UNDERWAY THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE AREAS OF FROST MAINLY FOR THE
ROUTE 10 CORRIDOR. SATURDAY MORNING MAY FEATURE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FROST UNFORTUNATELY FOR AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF A BIG RAPIDS TO MOUNT
PLEASANT LINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY WHEN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH WITH
IT...BUT A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK SO THUNDER THREAT IS LIMITED.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES EAST. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES THE
MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE UNDERDONE BUT
WERE LEFT ALONE FOR NOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
THOSE DAYS COULD BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 711 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION NOR FOG IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SOME WAVES COULD APPROACH 2 TO 3 FEET AT TIMES
TODAY BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...HOVING





000
FXUS63 KGRR 211111
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
711 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER A MILD
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF FROST ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
AND SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON SHOWER POTENTIAL LATER TODAY ALONG WITH FROST
POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO REACH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND INTO THE STRAITS AREA BY 18Z
TODAY. THE ONLY MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS IN THE MID LEVELS...H500 TO
H800...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN INVERTED V SHAPE.

WHILE ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO WISCONSIN...SOME
OF THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
AS THEY PROGRESS ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING LDM BETWEEN 21Z-00Z
AND GRR BY 03Z OR SO. GIVEN THE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
DOWN LOW...SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED IT APPEARS. THE HI
RES CAMS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY FIZZLES AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER THAN THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL LOWER. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE AND WITH CAA
UNDERWAY THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE AREAS OF FROST MAINLY FOR THE
ROUTE 10 CORRIDOR. SATURDAY MORNING MAY FEATURE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FROST UNFORTUNATELY FOR AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF A BIG RAPIDS TO MOUNT
PLEASANT LINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY WHEN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH WITH
IT...BUT A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK SO THUNDER THREAT IS LIMITED.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES EAST. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES THE
MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE UNDERDONE BUT
WERE LEFT ALONE FOR NOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
THOSE DAYS COULD BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 711 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION NOR FOG IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SOME WAVES COULD APPROACH 2 TO 3 FEET AT TIMES
TODAY BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...HOVING




000
FXUS63 KGRR 210726
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
326 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER A MILD
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF FROST ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
AND SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON SHOWER POTENTIAL LATER TODAY ALONG WITH FROST
POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO REACH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND INTO THE STRAITS AREA BY 18Z
TODAY. THE ONLY MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS IN THE MID LEVELS...H500 TO
H800...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN INVERTED V SHAPE.

WHILE ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO WISCONSIN...SOME
OF THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
AS THEY PROGRESS ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING LDM BETWEEN 21Z-00Z
AND GRR BY 03Z OR SO. GIVEN THE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
DOWN LOW...SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED IT APPEARS. THE HI
RES CAMS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY FIZZLES AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER THAN THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL LOWER. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE AND WITH CAA
UNDERWAY THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE AREAS OF FROST MAINLY FOR THE
ROUTE 10 CORRIDOR. SATURDAY MORNING MAY FEATURE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FROST UNFORTUNATELY FOR AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF A BIG RAPIDS TO MOUNT
PLEASANT LINE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY WHEN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH WITH
IT...BUT A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK SO THUNDER THREAT IS LIMITED.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES EAST. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES THE
MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE UNDERDONE BUT
WERE LEFT ALONE FOR NOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
THOSE DAYS COULD BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE RAIN IS PULLING AWAY FROM KJXN AT THIS TIME AND WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF THIS SITE BY 06Z. THUS TONIGHTS TAFS WILL BE DRY WITH VFR
WEATHER EVEN INTO THU.

A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING. SOME
INSTABILITY IS SHOWING UP FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF KMKG AND KGRR.
THUS TAF SITES WILL NOT FEATURE THUNDER...ONLY VCSH. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASSES
SOMETIMES SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IF SHOWERS DO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION NOR FOG IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SOME WAVES COULD APPROACH 2 TO 3 FEET AT TIMES
TODAY BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...HOVING




000
FXUS63 KGRR 210726
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
326 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER A MILD
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF FROST ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
AND SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON SHOWER POTENTIAL LATER TODAY ALONG WITH FROST
POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO REACH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND INTO THE STRAITS AREA BY 18Z
TODAY. THE ONLY MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS IN THE MID LEVELS...H500 TO
H800...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN INVERTED V SHAPE.

WHILE ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO WISCONSIN...SOME
OF THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
AS THEY PROGRESS ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING LDM BETWEEN 21Z-00Z
AND GRR BY 03Z OR SO. GIVEN THE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
DOWN LOW...SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED IT APPEARS. THE HI
RES CAMS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY FIZZLES AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER THAN THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL LOWER. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE AND WITH CAA
UNDERWAY THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE AREAS OF FROST MAINLY FOR THE
ROUTE 10 CORRIDOR. SATURDAY MORNING MAY FEATURE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FROST UNFORTUNATELY FOR AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF A BIG RAPIDS TO MOUNT
PLEASANT LINE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY WHEN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH WITH
IT...BUT A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK SO THUNDER THREAT IS LIMITED.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES EAST. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES THE
MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE UNDERDONE BUT
WERE LEFT ALONE FOR NOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
THOSE DAYS COULD BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE RAIN IS PULLING AWAY FROM KJXN AT THIS TIME AND WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF THIS SITE BY 06Z. THUS TONIGHTS TAFS WILL BE DRY WITH VFR
WEATHER EVEN INTO THU.

A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING. SOME
INSTABILITY IS SHOWING UP FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF KMKG AND KGRR.
THUS TAF SITES WILL NOT FEATURE THUNDER...ONLY VCSH. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASSES
SOMETIMES SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IF SHOWERS DO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION NOR FOG IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SOME WAVES COULD APPROACH 2 TO 3 FEET AT TIMES
TODAY BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...HOVING





000
FXUS63 KGRR 210726
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
326 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER A MILD
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF FROST ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
AND SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON SHOWER POTENTIAL LATER TODAY ALONG WITH FROST
POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO REACH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND INTO THE STRAITS AREA BY 18Z
TODAY. THE ONLY MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS IN THE MID LEVELS...H500 TO
H800...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN INVERTED V SHAPE.

WHILE ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO WISCONSIN...SOME
OF THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
AS THEY PROGRESS ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING LDM BETWEEN 21Z-00Z
AND GRR BY 03Z OR SO. GIVEN THE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
DOWN LOW...SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED IT APPEARS. THE HI
RES CAMS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY FIZZLES AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER THAN THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL LOWER. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE AND WITH CAA
UNDERWAY THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE AREAS OF FROST MAINLY FOR THE
ROUTE 10 CORRIDOR. SATURDAY MORNING MAY FEATURE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FROST UNFORTUNATELY FOR AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF A BIG RAPIDS TO MOUNT
PLEASANT LINE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY WHEN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH WITH
IT...BUT A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK SO THUNDER THREAT IS LIMITED.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES EAST. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES THE
MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE UNDERDONE BUT
WERE LEFT ALONE FOR NOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
THOSE DAYS COULD BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE RAIN IS PULLING AWAY FROM KJXN AT THIS TIME AND WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF THIS SITE BY 06Z. THUS TONIGHTS TAFS WILL BE DRY WITH VFR
WEATHER EVEN INTO THU.

A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING. SOME
INSTABILITY IS SHOWING UP FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF KMKG AND KGRR.
THUS TAF SITES WILL NOT FEATURE THUNDER...ONLY VCSH. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASSES
SOMETIMES SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IF SHOWERS DO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION NOR FOG IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SOME WAVES COULD APPROACH 2 TO 3 FEET AT TIMES
TODAY BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...HOVING




000
FXUS63 KGRR 210726
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
326 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER A MILD
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF FROST ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
AND SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON SHOWER POTENTIAL LATER TODAY ALONG WITH FROST
POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO REACH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND INTO THE STRAITS AREA BY 18Z
TODAY. THE ONLY MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS IN THE MID LEVELS...H500 TO
H800...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN INVERTED V SHAPE.

WHILE ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO WISCONSIN...SOME
OF THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
AS THEY PROGRESS ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING LDM BETWEEN 21Z-00Z
AND GRR BY 03Z OR SO. GIVEN THE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
DOWN LOW...SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED IT APPEARS. THE HI
RES CAMS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY FIZZLES AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER THAN THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL LOWER. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE AND WITH CAA
UNDERWAY THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE AREAS OF FROST MAINLY FOR THE
ROUTE 10 CORRIDOR. SATURDAY MORNING MAY FEATURE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FROST UNFORTUNATELY FOR AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF A BIG RAPIDS TO MOUNT
PLEASANT LINE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY WHEN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH WITH
IT...BUT A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK SO THUNDER THREAT IS LIMITED.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES EAST. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES THE
MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE UNDERDONE BUT
WERE LEFT ALONE FOR NOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
THOSE DAYS COULD BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE RAIN IS PULLING AWAY FROM KJXN AT THIS TIME AND WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF THIS SITE BY 06Z. THUS TONIGHTS TAFS WILL BE DRY WITH VFR
WEATHER EVEN INTO THU.

A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING. SOME
INSTABILITY IS SHOWING UP FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF KMKG AND KGRR.
THUS TAF SITES WILL NOT FEATURE THUNDER...ONLY VCSH. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASSES
SOMETIMES SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IF SHOWERS DO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION NOR FOG IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SOME WAVES COULD APPROACH 2 TO 3 FEET AT TIMES
TODAY BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...HOVING





000
FXUS63 KGRR 210314
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1114 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH FROST A GOOD BET EACH NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG INTERSTATE 94 THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. AFTER A DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON
THURSDAY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARMER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK RISING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

ADDED CHANCE OF A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET TO THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA PER NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A
RAIN/SLEET MIX IN THE CHICAGO AREA. AFTER THE PRECIP MOVED
IN...SOUTH HAVEN DROPPED TO 41 DEGREES REPORTING UP. THE FORECAST
IS DRY AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS WAS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI TONIGHT AND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG INTERSTATE 94
THIS EVENING AFTER ALL. HI-RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE RAIN MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS
WOULD AGREE. THAT SAID DRY AIR OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL TRY TO ERODE
IT AS IT MOVES IN. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
GRR CWA ARE IN EXCESS OF 20F IN MOST AREAS. PRECIP IS JUST TOO CLOSE
AT THIS POINT TO IGNORE. HAVE 20 PCT WORDING ALONG I-94 FOR NOW. WE
WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF IT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA AS WELL AS IF IT
TRENDS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS I-96 WHICH THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
AS WELL.

OPTED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES ALONG U.S. 10. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT UP THERE OVERNIGHT
WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. VERY COLD READINGS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT
UP THERE AND THE AIR MASS HAS NOT CHANGED. FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS UP THERE AS
WELL...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS KICKING OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ONTARIO. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS. WILL CARRY 30 PCT CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL TREND WARMER AND MORE
HUMID THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
SATURDAY...AND LOWER MICHIGAN WILL FINALLY START TO WARM UP AFTER A
COOL WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE WARMER STILL ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND EURO.
THE 12Z EURO KEEPS SW LOWER MI MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SW CWA SUNDAY EVENING. THE
GFS IS MUCH WETTER SUNDAY. I WOULD DEFINITELY FAVOR A DRY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THERE OF COURSE. CONFIDENCE
IN SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-96 ALONG
WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. 80
DEGREES SEEMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE RAIN IS PULLING AWAY FROM KJXN AT THIS TIME AND WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF THIS SITE BY 06Z. THUS TONIGHTS TAFS WILL BE DRY WITH VFR
WEATHER EVEN INTO THU.

A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING. SOME
INSTABILITY IS SHOWING UP FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF KMKG AND KGRR.
THUS TAF SITES WILL NOT FEATURE THUNDER...ONLY VCSH. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASSES
SOMETIMES SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IF SHOWERS DO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT THIS EVENING FROM HOLLAND SOUTH AND THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN BOTH CASES EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WAVES MAY RISE INTO THE 2-3 FOOT
RANGE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ037>040.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EBW
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 210314
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1114 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH FROST A GOOD BET EACH NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG INTERSTATE 94 THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. AFTER A DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON
THURSDAY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARMER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK RISING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

ADDED CHANCE OF A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET TO THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA PER NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A
RAIN/SLEET MIX IN THE CHICAGO AREA. AFTER THE PRECIP MOVED
IN...SOUTH HAVEN DROPPED TO 41 DEGREES REPORTING UP. THE FORECAST
IS DRY AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS WAS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI TONIGHT AND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG INTERSTATE 94
THIS EVENING AFTER ALL. HI-RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE RAIN MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS
WOULD AGREE. THAT SAID DRY AIR OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL TRY TO ERODE
IT AS IT MOVES IN. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
GRR CWA ARE IN EXCESS OF 20F IN MOST AREAS. PRECIP IS JUST TOO CLOSE
AT THIS POINT TO IGNORE. HAVE 20 PCT WORDING ALONG I-94 FOR NOW. WE
WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF IT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA AS WELL AS IF IT
TRENDS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS I-96 WHICH THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
AS WELL.

OPTED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES ALONG U.S. 10. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT UP THERE OVERNIGHT
WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. VERY COLD READINGS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT
UP THERE AND THE AIR MASS HAS NOT CHANGED. FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS UP THERE AS
WELL...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS KICKING OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ONTARIO. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS. WILL CARRY 30 PCT CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL TREND WARMER AND MORE
HUMID THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
SATURDAY...AND LOWER MICHIGAN WILL FINALLY START TO WARM UP AFTER A
COOL WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE WARMER STILL ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND EURO.
THE 12Z EURO KEEPS SW LOWER MI MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SW CWA SUNDAY EVENING. THE
GFS IS MUCH WETTER SUNDAY. I WOULD DEFINITELY FAVOR A DRY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THERE OF COURSE. CONFIDENCE
IN SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-96 ALONG
WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. 80
DEGREES SEEMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE RAIN IS PULLING AWAY FROM KJXN AT THIS TIME AND WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF THIS SITE BY 06Z. THUS TONIGHTS TAFS WILL BE DRY WITH VFR
WEATHER EVEN INTO THU.

A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING. SOME
INSTABILITY IS SHOWING UP FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF KMKG AND KGRR.
THUS TAF SITES WILL NOT FEATURE THUNDER...ONLY VCSH. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASSES
SOMETIMES SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IF SHOWERS DO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT THIS EVENING FROM HOLLAND SOUTH AND THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN BOTH CASES EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WAVES MAY RISE INTO THE 2-3 FOOT
RANGE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ037>040.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EBW
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 202310
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
710 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH FROST A GOOD BET EACH NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG INTERSTATE 94 THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. AFTER A DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON
THURSDAY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARMER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK RISING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

ADDED CHANCE OF A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET TO THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA PER NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A
RAIN/SLEET MIX IN THE CHICAGO AREA. AFTER THE PRECIP MOVED
IN...SOUTH HAVEN DROPPED TO 41 DEGREES REPORTING UP. THE FORECAST
IS DRY AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS WAS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI TONIGHT AND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG INTERSTATE 94
THIS EVENING AFTER ALL. HI-RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE RAIN MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS
WOULD AGREE. THAT SAID DRY AIR OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL TRY TO ERODE
IT AS IT MOVES IN. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
GRR CWA ARE IN EXCESS OF 20F IN MOST AREAS. PRECIP IS JUST TOO CLOSE
AT THIS POINT TO IGNORE. HAVE 20 PCT WORDING ALONG I-94 FOR NOW. WE
WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF IT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA AS WELL AS IF IT
TRENDS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS I-96 WHICH THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
AS WELL.

OPTED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES ALONG U.S. 10. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT UP THERE OVERNIGHT
WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. VERY COLD READINGS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT
UP THERE AND THE AIR MASS HAS NOT CHANGED. FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS UP THERE AS
WELL...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS KICKING OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ONTARIO. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS. WILL CARRY 30 PCT CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL TREND WARMER AND MORE
HUMID THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
SATURDAY...AND LOWER MICHIGAN WILL FINALLY START TO WARM UP AFTER A
COOL WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE WARMER STILL ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND EURO.
THE 12Z EURO KEEPS SW LOWER MI MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SW CWA SUNDAY EVENING. THE
GFS IS MUCH WETTER SUNDAY. I WOULD DEFINITELY FAVOR A DRY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THERE OF COURSE. CONFIDENCE
IN SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-96 ALONG
WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. 80
DEGREES SEEMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...WENT WITH MORE RAIN IN THE TAFS FOR THIS
EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...HOWEVER KLWA EARLIER DID GO IFR WITH LIKELY GS. THE IS
LOOKING VFR WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT THIS EVENING FROM HOLLAND SOUTH AND THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN BOTH CASES EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WAVES MAY RISE INTO THE 2-3 FOOT
RANGE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ037>040.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EBW
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 202310
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
710 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH FROST A GOOD BET EACH NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG INTERSTATE 94 THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. AFTER A DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON
THURSDAY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARMER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK RISING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

ADDED CHANCE OF A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET TO THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA PER NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A
RAIN/SLEET MIX IN THE CHICAGO AREA. AFTER THE PRECIP MOVED
IN...SOUTH HAVEN DROPPED TO 41 DEGREES REPORTING UP. THE FORECAST
IS DRY AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS WAS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI TONIGHT AND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG INTERSTATE 94
THIS EVENING AFTER ALL. HI-RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE RAIN MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS
WOULD AGREE. THAT SAID DRY AIR OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL TRY TO ERODE
IT AS IT MOVES IN. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
GRR CWA ARE IN EXCESS OF 20F IN MOST AREAS. PRECIP IS JUST TOO CLOSE
AT THIS POINT TO IGNORE. HAVE 20 PCT WORDING ALONG I-94 FOR NOW. WE
WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF IT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA AS WELL AS IF IT
TRENDS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS I-96 WHICH THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
AS WELL.

OPTED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES ALONG U.S. 10. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT UP THERE OVERNIGHT
WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. VERY COLD READINGS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT
UP THERE AND THE AIR MASS HAS NOT CHANGED. FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS UP THERE AS
WELL...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS KICKING OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ONTARIO. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS. WILL CARRY 30 PCT CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL TREND WARMER AND MORE
HUMID THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
SATURDAY...AND LOWER MICHIGAN WILL FINALLY START TO WARM UP AFTER A
COOL WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE WARMER STILL ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND EURO.
THE 12Z EURO KEEPS SW LOWER MI MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SW CWA SUNDAY EVENING. THE
GFS IS MUCH WETTER SUNDAY. I WOULD DEFINITELY FAVOR A DRY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THERE OF COURSE. CONFIDENCE
IN SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-96 ALONG
WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. 80
DEGREES SEEMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...WENT WITH MORE RAIN IN THE TAFS FOR THIS
EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...HOWEVER KLWA EARLIER DID GO IFR WITH LIKELY GS. THE IS
LOOKING VFR WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT THIS EVENING FROM HOLLAND SOUTH AND THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN BOTH CASES EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WAVES MAY RISE INTO THE 2-3 FOOT
RANGE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ037>040.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EBW
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 202310
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
710 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH FROST A GOOD BET EACH NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG INTERSTATE 94 THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. AFTER A DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON
THURSDAY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARMER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK RISING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

ADDED CHANCE OF A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET TO THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA PER NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A
RAIN/SLEET MIX IN THE CHICAGO AREA. AFTER THE PRECIP MOVED
IN...SOUTH HAVEN DROPPED TO 41 DEGREES REPORTING UP. THE FORECAST
IS DRY AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS WAS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI TONIGHT AND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG INTERSTATE 94
THIS EVENING AFTER ALL. HI-RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE RAIN MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS
WOULD AGREE. THAT SAID DRY AIR OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL TRY TO ERODE
IT AS IT MOVES IN. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
GRR CWA ARE IN EXCESS OF 20F IN MOST AREAS. PRECIP IS JUST TOO CLOSE
AT THIS POINT TO IGNORE. HAVE 20 PCT WORDING ALONG I-94 FOR NOW. WE
WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF IT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA AS WELL AS IF IT
TRENDS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS I-96 WHICH THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
AS WELL.

OPTED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES ALONG U.S. 10. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT UP THERE OVERNIGHT
WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. VERY COLD READINGS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT
UP THERE AND THE AIR MASS HAS NOT CHANGED. FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS UP THERE AS
WELL...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS KICKING OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ONTARIO. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS. WILL CARRY 30 PCT CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL TREND WARMER AND MORE
HUMID THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
SATURDAY...AND LOWER MICHIGAN WILL FINALLY START TO WARM UP AFTER A
COOL WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE WARMER STILL ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND EURO.
THE 12Z EURO KEEPS SW LOWER MI MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SW CWA SUNDAY EVENING. THE
GFS IS MUCH WETTER SUNDAY. I WOULD DEFINITELY FAVOR A DRY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THERE OF COURSE. CONFIDENCE
IN SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-96 ALONG
WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. 80
DEGREES SEEMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...WENT WITH MORE RAIN IN THE TAFS FOR THIS
EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...HOWEVER KLWA EARLIER DID GO IFR WITH LIKELY GS. THE IS
LOOKING VFR WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT THIS EVENING FROM HOLLAND SOUTH AND THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN BOTH CASES EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WAVES MAY RISE INTO THE 2-3 FOOT
RANGE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ037>040.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EBW
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 202204
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
604 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH FROST A GOOD BET EACH NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG INTERSTATE 94 THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. AFTER A DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON
THURSDAY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARMER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK RISING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

ADDED CHANCE OF A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET TO THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA PER NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A
RAIN/SLEET MIX IN THE CHICAGO AREA. AFTER THE PRECIP MOVED
IN...SOUTH HAVEN DROPPED TO 41 DEGREES REPORTING UP. THE FORECAST
IS DRY AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS WAS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI TONIGHT AND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG INTERSTATE 94
THIS EVENING AFTER ALL. HI-RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE RAIN MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS
WOULD AGREE. THAT SAID DRY AIR OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL TRY TO ERODE
IT AS IT MOVES IN. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
GRR CWA ARE IN EXCESS OF 20F IN MOST AREAS. PRECIP IS JUST TOO CLOSE
AT THIS POINT TO IGNORE. HAVE 20 PCT WORDING ALONG I-94 FOR NOW. WE
WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF IT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA AS WELL AS IF IT
TRENDS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS I-96 WHICH THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
AS WELL.

OPTED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES ALONG U.S. 10. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT UP THERE OVERNIGHT
WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. VERY COLD READINGS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT
UP THERE AND THE AIR MASS HAS NOT CHANGED. FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS UP THERE AS
WELL...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS KICKING OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ONTARIO. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS. WILL CARRY 30 PCT CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL TREND WARMER AND MORE
HUMID THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
SATURDAY...AND LOWER MICHIGAN WILL FINALLY START TO WARM UP AFTER A
COOL WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE WARMER STILL ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND EURO.
THE 12Z EURO KEEPS SW LOWER MI MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SW CWA SUNDAY EVENING. THE
GFS IS MUCH WETTER SUNDAY. I WOULD DEFINITELY FAVOR A DRY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THERE OF COURSE. CONFIDENCE
IN SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-96 ALONG
WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. 80
DEGREES SEEMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 23Z
THIS EVENING...BASED BETWEEN 5 KFT AND 7KFT. SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 5 KFT ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AT AZO/BTL/JXN.

IN ADDITION...A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAINLY BETWEEN 23Z AND 04Z THIS EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE SOMEWHAT AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN. FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...SO INCLUDED VCSH AT
AZO/BTL. BOTTOM LINE...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY AT
AZO/BTL/JXN AFTER 23Z...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT THIS EVENING FROM HOLLAND SOUTH AND THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN BOTH CASES EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WAVES MAY RISE INTO THE 2-3 FOOT
RANGE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ037>040.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EBW
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 202204
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
604 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH FROST A GOOD BET EACH NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG INTERSTATE 94 THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. AFTER A DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON
THURSDAY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARMER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK RISING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

ADDED CHANCE OF A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET TO THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA PER NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A
RAIN/SLEET MIX IN THE CHICAGO AREA. AFTER THE PRECIP MOVED
IN...SOUTH HAVEN DROPPED TO 41 DEGREES REPORTING UP. THE FORECAST
IS DRY AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS WAS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI TONIGHT AND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG INTERSTATE 94
THIS EVENING AFTER ALL. HI-RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE RAIN MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS
WOULD AGREE. THAT SAID DRY AIR OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL TRY TO ERODE
IT AS IT MOVES IN. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
GRR CWA ARE IN EXCESS OF 20F IN MOST AREAS. PRECIP IS JUST TOO CLOSE
AT THIS POINT TO IGNORE. HAVE 20 PCT WORDING ALONG I-94 FOR NOW. WE
WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF IT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA AS WELL AS IF IT
TRENDS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS I-96 WHICH THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
AS WELL.

OPTED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES ALONG U.S. 10. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT UP THERE OVERNIGHT
WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. VERY COLD READINGS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT
UP THERE AND THE AIR MASS HAS NOT CHANGED. FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS UP THERE AS
WELL...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS KICKING OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ONTARIO. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS. WILL CARRY 30 PCT CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL TREND WARMER AND MORE
HUMID THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
SATURDAY...AND LOWER MICHIGAN WILL FINALLY START TO WARM UP AFTER A
COOL WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE WARMER STILL ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND EURO.
THE 12Z EURO KEEPS SW LOWER MI MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SW CWA SUNDAY EVENING. THE
GFS IS MUCH WETTER SUNDAY. I WOULD DEFINITELY FAVOR A DRY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THERE OF COURSE. CONFIDENCE
IN SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-96 ALONG
WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. 80
DEGREES SEEMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 23Z
THIS EVENING...BASED BETWEEN 5 KFT AND 7KFT. SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 5 KFT ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AT AZO/BTL/JXN.

IN ADDITION...A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAINLY BETWEEN 23Z AND 04Z THIS EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE SOMEWHAT AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN. FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...SO INCLUDED VCSH AT
AZO/BTL. BOTTOM LINE...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY AT
AZO/BTL/JXN AFTER 23Z...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT THIS EVENING FROM HOLLAND SOUTH AND THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN BOTH CASES EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WAVES MAY RISE INTO THE 2-3 FOOT
RANGE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ037>040.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EBW
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 201930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH FROST A GOOD BET EACH NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG INTERSTATE 94 THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. AFTER A DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON
THURSDAY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARMER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK RISING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS WAS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI TONIGHT AND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG INTERSTATE 94
THIS EVENING AFTER ALL. HI-RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE RAIN MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS
WOULD AGREE. THAT SAID DRY AIR OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL TRY TO ERODE
IT AS IT MOVES IN. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
GRR CWA ARE IN EXCESS OF 20F IN MOST AREAS. PRECIP IS JUST TOO CLOSE
AT THIS POINT TO IGNORE. HAVE 20 PCT WORDING ALONG I-94 FOR NOW. WE
WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF IT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA AS WELL AS IF IT
TRENDS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS I-96 WHICH THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
AS WELL.

OPTED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES ALONG U.S. 10. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT UP THERE OVERNIGHT
WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. VERY COLD READINGS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT
UP THERE AND THE AIR MASS HAS NOT CHANGED. FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS UP THERE AS
WELL...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS KICKING OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ONTARIO. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS. WILL CARRY 30 PCT CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL TREND WARMER AND MORE
HUMID THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
SATURDAY...AND LOWER MICHIGAN WILL FINALLY START TO WARM UP AFTER A
COOL WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE WARMER STILL ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND EURO.
THE 12Z EURO KEEPS SW LOWER MI MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SW CWA SUNDAY EVENING. THE
GFS IS MUCH WETTER SUNDAY. I WOULD DEFINITELY FAVOR A DRY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THERE OF COURSE. CONFIDENCE
IS SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-96 ALONG
WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. 80 DEGREES
SEEMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 23Z
THIS EVENING...BASED BETWEEN 5 KFT AND 7KFT. SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 5 KFT ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AT AZO/BTL/JXN.

IN ADDITION...A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAINLY BETWEEN 23Z AND 04Z THIS EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE SOMEWHAT AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN. FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...SO INCLUDED VCSH AT
AZO/BTL. BOTTOM LINE...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY AT
AZO/BTL/JXN AFTER 23Z...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT THIS EVENING FROM HOLLAND SOUTH AND THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN BOTH CASES EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WAVES MAY RISE INTO THE 2-3 FOOT
RANGE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ037>040.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 201930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH FROST A GOOD BET EACH NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG INTERSTATE 94 THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. AFTER A DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON
THURSDAY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARMER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK RISING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS WAS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI TONIGHT AND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG INTERSTATE 94
THIS EVENING AFTER ALL. HI-RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE RAIN MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS
WOULD AGREE. THAT SAID DRY AIR OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL TRY TO ERODE
IT AS IT MOVES IN. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
GRR CWA ARE IN EXCESS OF 20F IN MOST AREAS. PRECIP IS JUST TOO CLOSE
AT THIS POINT TO IGNORE. HAVE 20 PCT WORDING ALONG I-94 FOR NOW. WE
WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF IT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA AS WELL AS IF IT
TRENDS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS I-96 WHICH THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
AS WELL.

OPTED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES ALONG U.S. 10. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT UP THERE OVERNIGHT
WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. VERY COLD READINGS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT
UP THERE AND THE AIR MASS HAS NOT CHANGED. FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS UP THERE AS
WELL...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS KICKING OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ONTARIO. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS. WILL CARRY 30 PCT CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL TREND WARMER AND MORE
HUMID THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
SATURDAY...AND LOWER MICHIGAN WILL FINALLY START TO WARM UP AFTER A
COOL WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE WARMER STILL ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND EURO.
THE 12Z EURO KEEPS SW LOWER MI MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SW CWA SUNDAY EVENING. THE
GFS IS MUCH WETTER SUNDAY. I WOULD DEFINITELY FAVOR A DRY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THERE OF COURSE. CONFIDENCE
IS SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-96 ALONG
WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. 80 DEGREES
SEEMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 23Z
THIS EVENING...BASED BETWEEN 5 KFT AND 7KFT. SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 5 KFT ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AT AZO/BTL/JXN.

IN ADDITION...A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAINLY BETWEEN 23Z AND 04Z THIS EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE SOMEWHAT AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN. FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...SO INCLUDED VCSH AT
AZO/BTL. BOTTOM LINE...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY AT
AZO/BTL/JXN AFTER 23Z...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT THIS EVENING FROM HOLLAND SOUTH AND THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN BOTH CASES EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WAVES MAY RISE INTO THE 2-3 FOOT
RANGE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ037>040.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 201930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH FROST A GOOD BET EACH NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG INTERSTATE 94 THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. AFTER A DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON
THURSDAY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARMER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK RISING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS WAS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI TONIGHT AND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG INTERSTATE 94
THIS EVENING AFTER ALL. HI-RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE RAIN MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS
WOULD AGREE. THAT SAID DRY AIR OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL TRY TO ERODE
IT AS IT MOVES IN. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
GRR CWA ARE IN EXCESS OF 20F IN MOST AREAS. PRECIP IS JUST TOO CLOSE
AT THIS POINT TO IGNORE. HAVE 20 PCT WORDING ALONG I-94 FOR NOW. WE
WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF IT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA AS WELL AS IF IT
TRENDS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS I-96 WHICH THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
AS WELL.

OPTED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES ALONG U.S. 10. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT UP THERE OVERNIGHT
WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. VERY COLD READINGS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT
UP THERE AND THE AIR MASS HAS NOT CHANGED. FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS UP THERE AS
WELL...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS KICKING OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ONTARIO. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS. WILL CARRY 30 PCT CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL TREND WARMER AND MORE
HUMID THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
SATURDAY...AND LOWER MICHIGAN WILL FINALLY START TO WARM UP AFTER A
COOL WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE WARMER STILL ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND EURO.
THE 12Z EURO KEEPS SW LOWER MI MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SW CWA SUNDAY EVENING. THE
GFS IS MUCH WETTER SUNDAY. I WOULD DEFINITELY FAVOR A DRY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THERE OF COURSE. CONFIDENCE
IS SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-96 ALONG
WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. 80 DEGREES
SEEMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 23Z
THIS EVENING...BASED BETWEEN 5 KFT AND 7KFT. SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 5 KFT ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AT AZO/BTL/JXN.

IN ADDITION...A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAINLY BETWEEN 23Z AND 04Z THIS EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE SOMEWHAT AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN. FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...SO INCLUDED VCSH AT
AZO/BTL. BOTTOM LINE...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY AT
AZO/BTL/JXN AFTER 23Z...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT THIS EVENING FROM HOLLAND SOUTH AND THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN BOTH CASES EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WAVES MAY RISE INTO THE 2-3 FOOT
RANGE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ037>040.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 201930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH FROST A GOOD BET EACH NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG INTERSTATE 94 THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. AFTER A DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON
THURSDAY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARMER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK RISING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS WAS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI TONIGHT AND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG INTERSTATE 94
THIS EVENING AFTER ALL. HI-RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE RAIN MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS
WOULD AGREE. THAT SAID DRY AIR OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL TRY TO ERODE
IT AS IT MOVES IN. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
GRR CWA ARE IN EXCESS OF 20F IN MOST AREAS. PRECIP IS JUST TOO CLOSE
AT THIS POINT TO IGNORE. HAVE 20 PCT WORDING ALONG I-94 FOR NOW. WE
WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF IT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA AS WELL AS IF IT
TRENDS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS I-96 WHICH THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
AS WELL.

OPTED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES ALONG U.S. 10. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT UP THERE OVERNIGHT
WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. VERY COLD READINGS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT
UP THERE AND THE AIR MASS HAS NOT CHANGED. FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS UP THERE AS
WELL...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS KICKING OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ONTARIO. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS. WILL CARRY 30 PCT CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL TREND WARMER AND MORE
HUMID THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
SATURDAY...AND LOWER MICHIGAN WILL FINALLY START TO WARM UP AFTER A
COOL WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE WARMER STILL ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND EURO.
THE 12Z EURO KEEPS SW LOWER MI MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SW CWA SUNDAY EVENING. THE
GFS IS MUCH WETTER SUNDAY. I WOULD DEFINITELY FAVOR A DRY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THERE OF COURSE. CONFIDENCE
IS SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-96 ALONG
WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. 80 DEGREES
SEEMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 23Z
THIS EVENING...BASED BETWEEN 5 KFT AND 7KFT. SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 5 KFT ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AT AZO/BTL/JXN.

IN ADDITION...A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAINLY BETWEEN 23Z AND 04Z THIS EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE SOMEWHAT AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN. FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...SO INCLUDED VCSH AT
AZO/BTL. BOTTOM LINE...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY AT
AZO/BTL/JXN AFTER 23Z...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT THIS EVENING FROM HOLLAND SOUTH AND THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN BOTH CASES EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WAVES MAY RISE INTO THE 2-3 FOOT
RANGE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ037>040.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 201754
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
154 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS A
SERIES OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS COME THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THAT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. A WARM UP
IS EXPECTED TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SKIES IN
MOST AREAS WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TIME. DILEMMA IS WHETHER
OR NOT WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE. MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE TRYING TO BRING LIGHT RETURNS
INTO ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GRR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
AT THIS POINT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING AS WE
BELIEVE THE DRY AIR IS GOING TO WIN OUT. PRECIP UPSTREAM IS LIGHT
AND MAINLY FALLING OUT OF A MID DECK ON THE LEADING EDGE. IF THE
SYSTEM OVERPERFORMS IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES ALONG
I-94 BETWEEN 800PM AND MIDNIGHT OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LITTLE QUESTION THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN... ANOTHER DIGGING POLAR JET CORE FROM NORTHERN
CANADA WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS JUST MOIST LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
BEYOND THAT A CANADIAN HIGH MOVES IN BY MID MORNING FRIDAY
ASSURING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES. SOME FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING WE HAVE A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
CAUSING AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. IT IS CURRENTLY HEADING EASTWARD AND WOULD NORMALLY
BRING RAIN TO OUR AREA TODAY.  HOWEVER THIS TIME WE HAVE A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED  POLAR JET CORE
HEADING FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL FORCE THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM SOUTH OF MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS TODAY WITH AREAS NEAR
I-94 SEEING THE THICKER CLOUDS WHILE AREA NORTH OF I-96 WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MORE SUNSHINE. EVEN SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT WARM
TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS SO NORTHERN AREA COULD SEE A
LITTLE PATCHY FROST.

MEANWHILE A CLOSED...COLD CORE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY NEAR BAFFIN`SISLAND
DROPS SOUTHWARD...REACHING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO CREATE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CLEARING WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

TWO MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED...FIRST IS THE FROST THREAT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN STORMY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREEZING TEMPS UP NORTH AND SOME FROST
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

ONCE THE HIGH DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT...RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS
WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNING BY MONDAY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG STALLED FRONT
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS.
OVERALL THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 23Z
THIS EVENING...BASED BETWEEN 5 KFT AND 7KFT. SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 5 KFT ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AT AZO/BTL/JXN.

IN ADDITION...A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAINLY BETWEEN 23Z AND 04Z THIS EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE SOMEWHAT AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN. FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...SO INCLUDED VCSH AT
AZO/BTL. BOTTOM LINE...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY AT
AZO/BTL/JXN AFTER 23Z...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A CORE OF WIND THAT THE HRRR IS
TRYING TO DEVELOP DOWN THE SHORELINE SOUTH OF HOLLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANNELING/FUNNELING DOWN THE SHORELINE
BLUFFS ARE LIKELY THE REASON FOR THE WIND THAT IS SHOWING UP IN
THE MODELS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS OR SO DEVELOP WHICH
WILL LIKELY KICK THE WAVE FIELD UP A BIT. THINKING WE WILL STAY
BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT WORTH WATCHING THE SOUTH HAVEN PIER AND
BUOY OBS BETWEEN 300PM AND 900PM OR SO.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 201754
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
154 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS A
SERIES OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS COME THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THAT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. A WARM UP
IS EXPECTED TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SKIES IN
MOST AREAS WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TIME. DILEMMA IS WHETHER
OR NOT WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE. MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE TRYING TO BRING LIGHT RETURNS
INTO ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GRR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
AT THIS POINT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING AS WE
BELIEVE THE DRY AIR IS GOING TO WIN OUT. PRECIP UPSTREAM IS LIGHT
AND MAINLY FALLING OUT OF A MID DECK ON THE LEADING EDGE. IF THE
SYSTEM OVERPERFORMS IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES ALONG
I-94 BETWEEN 800PM AND MIDNIGHT OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LITTLE QUESTION THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN... ANOTHER DIGGING POLAR JET CORE FROM NORTHERN
CANADA WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS JUST MOIST LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
BEYOND THAT A CANADIAN HIGH MOVES IN BY MID MORNING FRIDAY
ASSURING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES. SOME FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING WE HAVE A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
CAUSING AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. IT IS CURRENTLY HEADING EASTWARD AND WOULD NORMALLY
BRING RAIN TO OUR AREA TODAY.  HOWEVER THIS TIME WE HAVE A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED  POLAR JET CORE
HEADING FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL FORCE THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM SOUTH OF MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS TODAY WITH AREAS NEAR
I-94 SEEING THE THICKER CLOUDS WHILE AREA NORTH OF I-96 WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MORE SUNSHINE. EVEN SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT WARM
TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS SO NORTHERN AREA COULD SEE A
LITTLE PATCHY FROST.

MEANWHILE A CLOSED...COLD CORE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY NEAR BAFFIN`SISLAND
DROPS SOUTHWARD...REACHING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO CREATE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CLEARING WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

TWO MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED...FIRST IS THE FROST THREAT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN STORMY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREEZING TEMPS UP NORTH AND SOME FROST
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

ONCE THE HIGH DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT...RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS
WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNING BY MONDAY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG STALLED FRONT
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS.
OVERALL THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 23Z
THIS EVENING...BASED BETWEEN 5 KFT AND 7KFT. SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 5 KFT ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AT AZO/BTL/JXN.

IN ADDITION...A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAINLY BETWEEN 23Z AND 04Z THIS EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE SOMEWHAT AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN. FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...SO INCLUDED VCSH AT
AZO/BTL. BOTTOM LINE...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY AT
AZO/BTL/JXN AFTER 23Z...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A CORE OF WIND THAT THE HRRR IS
TRYING TO DEVELOP DOWN THE SHORELINE SOUTH OF HOLLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANNELING/FUNNELING DOWN THE SHORELINE
BLUFFS ARE LIKELY THE REASON FOR THE WIND THAT IS SHOWING UP IN
THE MODELS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS OR SO DEVELOP WHICH
WILL LIKELY KICK THE WAVE FIELD UP A BIT. THINKING WE WILL STAY
BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT WORTH WATCHING THE SOUTH HAVEN PIER AND
BUOY OBS BETWEEN 300PM AND 900PM OR SO.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 201754
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
154 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS A
SERIES OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS COME THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THAT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. A WARM UP
IS EXPECTED TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SKIES IN
MOST AREAS WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TIME. DILEMMA IS WHETHER
OR NOT WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE. MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE TRYING TO BRING LIGHT RETURNS
INTO ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GRR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
AT THIS POINT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING AS WE
BELIEVE THE DRY AIR IS GOING TO WIN OUT. PRECIP UPSTREAM IS LIGHT
AND MAINLY FALLING OUT OF A MID DECK ON THE LEADING EDGE. IF THE
SYSTEM OVERPERFORMS IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES ALONG
I-94 BETWEEN 800PM AND MIDNIGHT OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LITTLE QUESTION THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN... ANOTHER DIGGING POLAR JET CORE FROM NORTHERN
CANADA WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS JUST MOIST LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
BEYOND THAT A CANADIAN HIGH MOVES IN BY MID MORNING FRIDAY
ASSURING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES. SOME FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING WE HAVE A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
CAUSING AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. IT IS CURRENTLY HEADING EASTWARD AND WOULD NORMALLY
BRING RAIN TO OUR AREA TODAY.  HOWEVER THIS TIME WE HAVE A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED  POLAR JET CORE
HEADING FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL FORCE THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM SOUTH OF MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS TODAY WITH AREAS NEAR
I-94 SEEING THE THICKER CLOUDS WHILE AREA NORTH OF I-96 WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MORE SUNSHINE. EVEN SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT WARM
TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS SO NORTHERN AREA COULD SEE A
LITTLE PATCHY FROST.

MEANWHILE A CLOSED...COLD CORE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY NEAR BAFFIN`SISLAND
DROPS SOUTHWARD...REACHING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO CREATE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CLEARING WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

TWO MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED...FIRST IS THE FROST THREAT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN STORMY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREEZING TEMPS UP NORTH AND SOME FROST
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

ONCE THE HIGH DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT...RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS
WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNING BY MONDAY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG STALLED FRONT
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS.
OVERALL THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 23Z
THIS EVENING...BASED BETWEEN 5 KFT AND 7KFT. SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 5 KFT ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AT AZO/BTL/JXN.

IN ADDITION...A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAINLY BETWEEN 23Z AND 04Z THIS EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE SOMEWHAT AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN. FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...SO INCLUDED VCSH AT
AZO/BTL. BOTTOM LINE...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY AT
AZO/BTL/JXN AFTER 23Z...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A CORE OF WIND THAT THE HRRR IS
TRYING TO DEVELOP DOWN THE SHORELINE SOUTH OF HOLLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANNELING/FUNNELING DOWN THE SHORELINE
BLUFFS ARE LIKELY THE REASON FOR THE WIND THAT IS SHOWING UP IN
THE MODELS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS OR SO DEVELOP WHICH
WILL LIKELY KICK THE WAVE FIELD UP A BIT. THINKING WE WILL STAY
BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT WORTH WATCHING THE SOUTH HAVEN PIER AND
BUOY OBS BETWEEN 300PM AND 900PM OR SO.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 201754
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
154 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS A
SERIES OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS COME THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THAT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. A WARM UP
IS EXPECTED TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SKIES IN
MOST AREAS WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TIME. DILEMMA IS WHETHER
OR NOT WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE. MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE TRYING TO BRING LIGHT RETURNS
INTO ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GRR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
AT THIS POINT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING AS WE
BELIEVE THE DRY AIR IS GOING TO WIN OUT. PRECIP UPSTREAM IS LIGHT
AND MAINLY FALLING OUT OF A MID DECK ON THE LEADING EDGE. IF THE
SYSTEM OVERPERFORMS IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES ALONG
I-94 BETWEEN 800PM AND MIDNIGHT OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LITTLE QUESTION THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN... ANOTHER DIGGING POLAR JET CORE FROM NORTHERN
CANADA WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS JUST MOIST LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
BEYOND THAT A CANADIAN HIGH MOVES IN BY MID MORNING FRIDAY
ASSURING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES. SOME FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING WE HAVE A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
CAUSING AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. IT IS CURRENTLY HEADING EASTWARD AND WOULD NORMALLY
BRING RAIN TO OUR AREA TODAY.  HOWEVER THIS TIME WE HAVE A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED  POLAR JET CORE
HEADING FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL FORCE THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM SOUTH OF MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS TODAY WITH AREAS NEAR
I-94 SEEING THE THICKER CLOUDS WHILE AREA NORTH OF I-96 WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MORE SUNSHINE. EVEN SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT WARM
TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS SO NORTHERN AREA COULD SEE A
LITTLE PATCHY FROST.

MEANWHILE A CLOSED...COLD CORE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY NEAR BAFFIN`SISLAND
DROPS SOUTHWARD...REACHING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO CREATE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CLEARING WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

TWO MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED...FIRST IS THE FROST THREAT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN STORMY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREEZING TEMPS UP NORTH AND SOME FROST
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

ONCE THE HIGH DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT...RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS
WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNING BY MONDAY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG STALLED FRONT
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS.
OVERALL THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 23Z
THIS EVENING...BASED BETWEEN 5 KFT AND 7KFT. SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 5 KFT ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AT AZO/BTL/JXN.

IN ADDITION...A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAINLY BETWEEN 23Z AND 04Z THIS EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE SOMEWHAT AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN. FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...SO INCLUDED VCSH AT
AZO/BTL. BOTTOM LINE...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY AT
AZO/BTL/JXN AFTER 23Z...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A CORE OF WIND THAT THE HRRR IS
TRYING TO DEVELOP DOWN THE SHORELINE SOUTH OF HOLLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANNELING/FUNNELING DOWN THE SHORELINE
BLUFFS ARE LIKELY THE REASON FOR THE WIND THAT IS SHOWING UP IN
THE MODELS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS OR SO DEVELOP WHICH
WILL LIKELY KICK THE WAVE FIELD UP A BIT. THINKING WE WILL STAY
BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT WORTH WATCHING THE SOUTH HAVEN PIER AND
BUOY OBS BETWEEN 300PM AND 900PM OR SO.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 201608
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1208 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS A
SERIES OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS COME THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THAT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. A WARM UP
IS EXPECTED TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SKIES IN
MOST AREAS WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TIME. DILEMMA IS WHETHER
OR NOT WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE. MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE TRYING TO BRING LIGHT RETURNS
INTO ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GRR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
AT THIS POINT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING AS WE
BELIEVE THE DRY AIR IS GOING TO WIN OUT. PRECIP UPSTREAM IS LIGHT
AND MAINLY FALLING OUT OF A MID DECK ON THE LEADING EDGE. IF THE
SYSTEM OVERPERFORMS IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES ALONG
I-94 BETWEEN 800PM AND MIDNIGHT OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LITTLE QUESTION THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN... ANOTHER DIGGING POLAR JET CORE FROM NORTHERN
CANADA WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS JUST MOIST LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
BEYOND THAT A CANADIAN HIGH MOVES IN BY MID MORNING FRIDAY
ASSURING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES. SOME FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING WE HAVE A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
CAUSING AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. IT IS CURRENTLY HEADING EASTWARD AND WOULD NORMALLY
BRING RAIN TO OUR AREA TODAY.  HOWEVER THIS TIME WE HAVE A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED  POLAR JET CORE
HEADING FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL FORCE THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM SOUTH OF MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS TODAY WITH AREAS NEAR
I-94 SEEING THE THICKER CLOUDS WHILE AREA NORTH OF I-96 WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MORE SUNSHINE. EVEN SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT WARM
TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS SO NORTHERN AREA COULD SEE A
LITTLE PATCHY FROST.

MEANWHILE A CLOSED...COLD CORE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY NEAR BAFFIN`SISLAND
DROPS SOUTHWARD...REACHING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO CREATE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CLEARING WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

TWO MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED...FIRST IS THE FROST THREAT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN STORMY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREEZING TEMPS UP NORTH AND SOME FROST
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

ONCE THE HIGH DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT...RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS
WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNING BY MONDAY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG STALLED FRONT
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS.
OVERALL THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

SOME MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR JXN THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS AROUND
2500 FEET AGL AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A CORE OF WIND THAT THE HRRR IS
TRYING TO DEVELOP DOWN THE SHORELINE SOUTH OF HOLLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANNELING/FUNNELING DOWN THE SHORELINE
BLUFFS ARE LIKELY THE REASON FOR THE WIND THAT IS SHOWING UP IN
THE MODELS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS OR SO DEVELOP WHICH
WILL LIKELY KICK THE WAVE FIELD UP A BIT. THINKING WE WILL STAY
BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT WORTH WATCHING THE SOUTH HAVEN PIER AND
BUOY OBS BETWEEN 300PM AND 900PM OR SO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 201608
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1208 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS A
SERIES OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS COME THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THAT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. A WARM UP
IS EXPECTED TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SKIES IN
MOST AREAS WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TIME. DILEMMA IS WHETHER
OR NOT WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE. MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE TRYING TO BRING LIGHT RETURNS
INTO ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GRR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
AT THIS POINT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING AS WE
BELIEVE THE DRY AIR IS GOING TO WIN OUT. PRECIP UPSTREAM IS LIGHT
AND MAINLY FALLING OUT OF A MID DECK ON THE LEADING EDGE. IF THE
SYSTEM OVERPERFORMS IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES ALONG
I-94 BETWEEN 800PM AND MIDNIGHT OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LITTLE QUESTION THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN... ANOTHER DIGGING POLAR JET CORE FROM NORTHERN
CANADA WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS JUST MOIST LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
BEYOND THAT A CANADIAN HIGH MOVES IN BY MID MORNING FRIDAY
ASSURING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES. SOME FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING WE HAVE A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
CAUSING AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. IT IS CURRENTLY HEADING EASTWARD AND WOULD NORMALLY
BRING RAIN TO OUR AREA TODAY.  HOWEVER THIS TIME WE HAVE A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED  POLAR JET CORE
HEADING FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL FORCE THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM SOUTH OF MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS TODAY WITH AREAS NEAR
I-94 SEEING THE THICKER CLOUDS WHILE AREA NORTH OF I-96 WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MORE SUNSHINE. EVEN SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT WARM
TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS SO NORTHERN AREA COULD SEE A
LITTLE PATCHY FROST.

MEANWHILE A CLOSED...COLD CORE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY NEAR BAFFIN`SISLAND
DROPS SOUTHWARD...REACHING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO CREATE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CLEARING WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

TWO MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED...FIRST IS THE FROST THREAT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN STORMY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREEZING TEMPS UP NORTH AND SOME FROST
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

ONCE THE HIGH DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT...RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS
WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNING BY MONDAY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG STALLED FRONT
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS.
OVERALL THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

SOME MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR JXN THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS AROUND
2500 FEET AGL AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A CORE OF WIND THAT THE HRRR IS
TRYING TO DEVELOP DOWN THE SHORELINE SOUTH OF HOLLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANNELING/FUNNELING DOWN THE SHORELINE
BLUFFS ARE LIKELY THE REASON FOR THE WIND THAT IS SHOWING UP IN
THE MODELS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS OR SO DEVELOP WHICH
WILL LIKELY KICK THE WAVE FIELD UP A BIT. THINKING WE WILL STAY
BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT WORTH WATCHING THE SOUTH HAVEN PIER AND
BUOY OBS BETWEEN 300PM AND 900PM OR SO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 201539
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS A
SERIES OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS COME THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THAT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. A WARM UP
IS EXPECTED TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LITTLE QUESTION THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN... ANOTHER DIGGING POLAR JET CORE FROM NORTHERN
CANADA WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS JUST MOIST LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
BEYOND THAT A CANADIAN HIGH MOVES IN BY MID MORNING FRIDAY
ASSURING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES. SOME FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING WE HAVE A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
CAUSING AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. IT IS CURRENTLY HEADING EASTWARD AND WOULD NORMALLY
BRING RAIN TO OUR AREA TODAY.  HOWEVER THIS TIME WE HAVE A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED  POLAR JET CORE
HEADING FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL FORCE THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM SOUTH OF MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS TODAY WITH AREAS NEAR
I-94 SEEING THE THICKER CLOUDS WHILE AREA NORTH OF I-96 WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MORE SUNSHINE. EVEN SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT WARM
TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS SO NORTHERN AREA COULD SEE A
LITTLE PATCHY FROST.

MEANWHILE A CLOSED...COLD CORE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY NEAR BAFFIN`SISLAND
DROPS SOUTHWARD...REACHING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO CREATE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CLEARING WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

TWO MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED...FIRST IS THE FROST THREAT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN STORMY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREEZING TEMPS UP NORTH AND SOME FROST
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

ONCE THE HIGH DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT...RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS
WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNING BY MONDAY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG STALLED FRONT
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS.
OVERALL THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

SOME MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR JXN THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS AROUND
2500 FEET AGL AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NOT MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT HERE. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND I DO NOT SEE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
TILL AT LEAST SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO REAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVERS ARE STABLE
OR SLOWLY FALLING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT MEANDERING A BIT...MAY PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KGRR 201125
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
725 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS A
SERIES OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS COME THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THAT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. A WARM UP
IS EXPECTED TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LITTLE QUESTION THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN... ANOTHER DIGGING POLAR JET CORE FROM NORTHERN
CANADA WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS JUST MOIST LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
BEYOND THAT A CANADIAN HIGH MOVES IN BY MID MORNING FRIDAY
ASSURING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES. SOME FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING WE HAVE A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
CAUSING AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. IT IS CURRENTLY HEADING EASTWARD AND WOULD NORMALLY
BRING RAIN TO OUR AREA TODAY.  HOWEVER THIS TIME WE HAVE A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED  POLAR JET CORE
HEADING FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL FORCE THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM SOUTH OF MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS TODAY WITH AREAS NEAR
I-94 SEEING THE THICKER CLOUDS WHILE AREA NORTH OF I-96 WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MORE SUNSHINE. EVEN SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT WARM
TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS SO NORTHERN AREA COULD SEE A
LITTLE PATCHY FROST.

MEANWHILE A CLOSED...COLD CORE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY NEAR BAFFIN`SISLAND
DROPS SOUTHWARD...REACHING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO CREATE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CLEARING WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

TWO MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED...FIRST IS THE FROST THREAT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN STORMY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREEZING TEMPS UP NORTH AND SOME FROST
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

ONCE THE HIGH DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT...RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS
WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNING BY MONDAY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG STALLED FRONT
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS.
OVERALL THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

SOME MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR JXN THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS AROUND
2500 FEET AGL AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NOT MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT HERE. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND I DO NOT SEE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
TILL AT LEAST SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

IN GENERAL...RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE
GRADUALLY FALLING. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE WITH LIMITED
QPF THIS WEEK. FAIR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL BE LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ050-056>059-
     064>067-071>074.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-051-052.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW/CAS
MARINE...WDM





000
FXUS63 KGRR 201125
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
725 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS A
SERIES OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS COME THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THAT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. A WARM UP
IS EXPECTED TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LITTLE QUESTION THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN... ANOTHER DIGGING POLAR JET CORE FROM NORTHERN
CANADA WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS JUST MOIST LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
BEYOND THAT A CANADIAN HIGH MOVES IN BY MID MORNING FRIDAY
ASSURING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES. SOME FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING WE HAVE A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
CAUSING AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. IT IS CURRENTLY HEADING EASTWARD AND WOULD NORMALLY
BRING RAIN TO OUR AREA TODAY.  HOWEVER THIS TIME WE HAVE A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED  POLAR JET CORE
HEADING FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL FORCE THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM SOUTH OF MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS TODAY WITH AREAS NEAR
I-94 SEEING THE THICKER CLOUDS WHILE AREA NORTH OF I-96 WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MORE SUNSHINE. EVEN SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT WARM
TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS SO NORTHERN AREA COULD SEE A
LITTLE PATCHY FROST.

MEANWHILE A CLOSED...COLD CORE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY NEAR BAFFIN`SISLAND
DROPS SOUTHWARD...REACHING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO CREATE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CLEARING WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

TWO MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED...FIRST IS THE FROST THREAT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN STORMY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREEZING TEMPS UP NORTH AND SOME FROST
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

ONCE THE HIGH DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT...RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS
WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNING BY MONDAY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG STALLED FRONT
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS.
OVERALL THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

SOME MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR JXN THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS AROUND
2500 FEET AGL AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NOT MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT HERE. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND I DO NOT SEE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
TILL AT LEAST SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

IN GENERAL...RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE
GRADUALLY FALLING. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE WITH LIMITED
QPF THIS WEEK. FAIR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL BE LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ050-056>059-
     064>067-071>074.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-051-052.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW/CAS
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KGRR 201125
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
725 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS A
SERIES OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS COME THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THAT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. A WARM UP
IS EXPECTED TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LITTLE QUESTION THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN... ANOTHER DIGGING POLAR JET CORE FROM NORTHERN
CANADA WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS JUST MOIST LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
BEYOND THAT A CANADIAN HIGH MOVES IN BY MID MORNING FRIDAY
ASSURING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES. SOME FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING WE HAVE A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
CAUSING AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. IT IS CURRENTLY HEADING EASTWARD AND WOULD NORMALLY
BRING RAIN TO OUR AREA TODAY.  HOWEVER THIS TIME WE HAVE A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED  POLAR JET CORE
HEADING FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL FORCE THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM SOUTH OF MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS TODAY WITH AREAS NEAR
I-94 SEEING THE THICKER CLOUDS WHILE AREA NORTH OF I-96 WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MORE SUNSHINE. EVEN SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT WARM
TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS SO NORTHERN AREA COULD SEE A
LITTLE PATCHY FROST.

MEANWHILE A CLOSED...COLD CORE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY NEAR BAFFIN`SISLAND
DROPS SOUTHWARD...REACHING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO CREATE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CLEARING WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

TWO MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED...FIRST IS THE FROST THREAT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN STORMY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREEZING TEMPS UP NORTH AND SOME FROST
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

ONCE THE HIGH DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT...RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS
WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNING BY MONDAY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG STALLED FRONT
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS.
OVERALL THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

SOME MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR JXN THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS AROUND
2500 FEET AGL AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NOT MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT HERE. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND I DO NOT SEE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
TILL AT LEAST SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

IN GENERAL...RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE
GRADUALLY FALLING. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE WITH LIMITED
QPF THIS WEEK. FAIR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL BE LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ050-056>059-
     064>067-071>074.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-051-052.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW/CAS
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KGRR 201125
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
725 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS A
SERIES OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS COME THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THAT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. A WARM UP
IS EXPECTED TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LITTLE QUESTION THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN... ANOTHER DIGGING POLAR JET CORE FROM NORTHERN
CANADA WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS JUST MOIST LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
BEYOND THAT A CANADIAN HIGH MOVES IN BY MID MORNING FRIDAY
ASSURING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES. SOME FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING WE HAVE A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
CAUSING AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. IT IS CURRENTLY HEADING EASTWARD AND WOULD NORMALLY
BRING RAIN TO OUR AREA TODAY.  HOWEVER THIS TIME WE HAVE A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED  POLAR JET CORE
HEADING FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL FORCE THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM SOUTH OF MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS TODAY WITH AREAS NEAR
I-94 SEEING THE THICKER CLOUDS WHILE AREA NORTH OF I-96 WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MORE SUNSHINE. EVEN SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT WARM
TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS SO NORTHERN AREA COULD SEE A
LITTLE PATCHY FROST.

MEANWHILE A CLOSED...COLD CORE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY NEAR BAFFIN`SISLAND
DROPS SOUTHWARD...REACHING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO CREATE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CLEARING WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

TWO MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED...FIRST IS THE FROST THREAT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN STORMY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREEZING TEMPS UP NORTH AND SOME FROST
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

ONCE THE HIGH DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT...RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS
WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNING BY MONDAY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG STALLED FRONT
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS.
OVERALL THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

SOME MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR JXN THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS AROUND
2500 FEET AGL AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NOT MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT HERE. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND I DO NOT SEE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
TILL AT LEAST SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

IN GENERAL...RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE
GRADUALLY FALLING. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE WITH LIMITED
QPF THIS WEEK. FAIR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL BE LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ050-056>059-
     064>067-071>074.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-051-052.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW/CAS
MARINE...WDM





000
FXUS63 KGRR 200726 CCA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS A
SERIES OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS COME THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THAT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. A WARM UP
IS EXPECTED TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LITTLE QUESTION THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN... ANOTHER DIGGING POLAR JET CORE FROM NORTHERN
CANADA WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS JUST MOIST LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
BEYOND THAT A CANADIAN HIGH MOVES IN BY MID MORNING FRIDAY
ASSURING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT COOLER TEMPEATURES. SOME FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING WE HAVE A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
CAUSING AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. IT IS CURRENTLY HEADING EASTWARD AND WOULD NORMALLY
BRING RAIN TO OUR AREA TODAY.  HOWEVER THIS TIME WE HAVE A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED  POLAR JET CORE
HEADING FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL FORCE THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM SOUTH OF MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS TODAY WITH AREAS NEAR
I-94 SEEING THE THICKER CLOUDS WHILE AREA NORTH OF I-96 WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MORE SUNSHINE. EVEN SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT WARM
TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS SO NORTHERN AREA COULD SEE A
LITTLE PATCHY FROST.

MEANWHILE A CLOSED...COLD CORE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY NEAR BAFFIN`SISLAND
DROPS SOUTHWARD...REACHING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO CREATE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CLEARING WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

TWO MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED...FIRST IS THE FROST THREAT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN STORMY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREEZING TEMPS UP NORTH AND SOME FROST
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

ONCE THE HIGH DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT...A RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNING BY MONDAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING
AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG STALLED WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE OVERALL PATTERN
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. OVERALL
THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES
KAZO...KBTL AND KJXN LATER WED AFTN INTO THE EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...EVEN IF THEY DO OCCUR...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AS
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INITIALL REMAIN LIMITED. OTHERWISE THE
TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST MI SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING WINDS INTO WED
AND RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NOT MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT HERE. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND I DO NOT SEE THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TILL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

IN GENERAL...RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE
GRADUALLY FALLING. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE WITH LIMITED
QPF THIS WEEK. FAIR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL BE LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ050-056>059-
     064>067-071>074.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-051-052.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW/CAS
MARINE...WDM





000
FXUS63 KGRR 200726 CCA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS A
SERIES OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS COME THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THAT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. A WARM UP
IS EXPECTED TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LITTLE QUESTION THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN... ANOTHER DIGGING POLAR JET CORE FROM NORTHERN
CANADA WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS JUST MOIST LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
BEYOND THAT A CANADIAN HIGH MOVES IN BY MID MORNING FRIDAY
ASSURING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT COOLER TEMPEATURES. SOME FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING WE HAVE A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
CAUSING AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. IT IS CURRENTLY HEADING EASTWARD AND WOULD NORMALLY
BRING RAIN TO OUR AREA TODAY.  HOWEVER THIS TIME WE HAVE A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED  POLAR JET CORE
HEADING FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL FORCE THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM SOUTH OF MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS TODAY WITH AREAS NEAR
I-94 SEEING THE THICKER CLOUDS WHILE AREA NORTH OF I-96 WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MORE SUNSHINE. EVEN SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT WARM
TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS SO NORTHERN AREA COULD SEE A
LITTLE PATCHY FROST.

MEANWHILE A CLOSED...COLD CORE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY NEAR BAFFIN`SISLAND
DROPS SOUTHWARD...REACHING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO CREATE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CLEARING WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

TWO MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED...FIRST IS THE FROST THREAT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN STORMY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREEZING TEMPS UP NORTH AND SOME FROST
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

ONCE THE HIGH DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT...A RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNING BY MONDAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING
AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG STALLED WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE OVERALL PATTERN
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. OVERALL
THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES
KAZO...KBTL AND KJXN LATER WED AFTN INTO THE EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...EVEN IF THEY DO OCCUR...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AS
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INITIALL REMAIN LIMITED. OTHERWISE THE
TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST MI SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING WINDS INTO WED
AND RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NOT MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT HERE. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND I DO NOT SEE THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TILL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

IN GENERAL...RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE
GRADUALLY FALLING. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE WITH LIMITED
QPF THIS WEEK. FAIR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL BE LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ050-056>059-
     064>067-071>074.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-051-052.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW/CAS
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KGRR 200726
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS A
SERIES OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS COME THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THAT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. A WARM UP
IS EXPECTED TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LITTLE QUESTION THE PRECIPITATION FRONT NEXT SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN ANOTHER
DIGGING POLAR JET CORE WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. IT LOOKS JUST MOIST
ENOUGH TO GET A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEYOND
THAT A CANADIAN HIGH MOVES IN BY MID MORNING FRIDAY ASSURING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT COOLER TEMPEATURES.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

TWO MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED...FIRST IS THE FROST THREAT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN STORMY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREEZING TEMPS UP NORTH AND SOME FROST
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

ONCE THE HIGH DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT...A RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNING BY MONDAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING
AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG STALLED WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE OVERALL PATTERN
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. OVERALL
THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES
KAZO...KBTL AND KJXN LATER WED AFTN INTO THE EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...EVEN IF THEY DO OCCUR...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AS
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INITIALL REMAIN LIMITED. OTHERWISE THE
TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST MI SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING WINDS INTO WED
AND RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

NOT MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT HERE. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND I DO NOT SEE THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TILL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

IN GENERAL...RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE
GRADUALLY FALLING. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE WITH LIMITED
QPF THIS WEEK. FAIR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL BE LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ050-056>059-
     064>067-071>074.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-051-052.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW/CAS
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KGRR 200317
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1117 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

A COOL AIR MASS HAS SETTLED INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND FROST
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY TONIGHT. A
FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND A
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE REMAINING AREAS OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THIS
WEEK...WITH A WARMUP AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ALONG
WITH THE WARMER AIR WILL COME CHANCES FOR RAIN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WAS ON WHETHER TO EXPAND A FROST
HEADLINE INTO THE COUNTIES THAT WERE NOT COVERED BY THE FREEZE
WARNING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER. DECIDED TO DO THAT...SO A FROST
ADVISORY IS NOW IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESSENTIALLY FROM INTERSTATE 96 TO THE SOUTH. DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH THE DEW
POINT CURRENTLY AT GRAND RAPIDS AT 31 DEGREES. THINKING THE
STRATOCUMULUS WILL FADE WITH THE SETTING SUN THIS EVENING WHICH
SHOULD SET UP OK RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. ONE ITEM OF CONCERN IS A
CORE OF WIND THAT IS SEEN IN NAM CROSS SECTIONS IN BUFKIT.
STILL...GIVEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND VERY
DRY/COOL AIR ALREADY IN PLACE FELT HEADLINES WERE WARRANTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE QUIET. WE HAVE A DRY
FORECAST IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
SHORTWAVE THAT SLIDES BY THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BUT HAVE SIDED WITH THE DRY ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.
THE PRECIP SHOULD MISS US JUST TO THE SOUTH. ALSO ON THURSDAY...A
WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER PENINSULA WITH SOME SPOTTY
PRECIP AMOUNTS BEING KICKED OUT BY THE MODELS. MOISTURE IS NOT ALL
THAT DEEP IN THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT TIME FRAME SO AM
OPTING FOR DRY.

IT WILL BE COOL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NO MAJOR WARM ADVECTION
PUSH AT 850MB/S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR WET
WEATHER AND GUSTY WINDS GOING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF SATURDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES TO THE
EAST AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
EXTEND OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...GIVING WAY TO SOUTHERLY INFLUENCE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE SOMEWHAT OF A SIMILAR TRACK TO LAST WEEKENDS
SYSTEM...THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.

THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY
NIGHTS RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RESULTING ISENTROPIC
LIFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRANSITIONS FROM A CLOSED LOW TO A SHORT WAVE THAT IS EVENTUALLY
CONSUMED AROUND THE MAIN CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE HUDSON BAY. THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS HINGED UP OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY. WE MAY VERY WELL SEE A LULL
IN ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WE LOSE THE LIFT.

GOING INTO MEMORIAL DAY IS WHERE WE SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY
WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT SO IMPRESSIVE...AN 850MB JET CORE OF 40-50KTS MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WOULD
USUALLY TRIGGER SOME CONCERN...BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF LIMITING
FACTORS TO ANY REAL ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE BEST LIFT WOULD REMAIN
NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHILE THE BEST CAPE STAYS SOUTHEAST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE CREEP CLOSER TO
MONDAY IF CONDITIONS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. OTHERWISE...IT SEEMS
THE HOLIDAY WILL HAVE SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES
KAZO...KBTL AND KJXN LATER WED AFTN INTO THE EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...EVEN IF THEY DO OCCUR...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AS
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INITIALL REMAIN LIMITED. OTHERWISE THE
TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST MI SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING WINDS INTO WED
AND RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. AS A RESULT THE WAVES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

IN GENERAL...RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE
GRADUALLY FALLING. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE WITH LIMITED
QPF THIS WEEK. FAIR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL BE LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ050-056>059-
     064>067-071>074.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-
     051-052.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW/CAS
MARINE...MJS





000
FXUS63 KGRR 200317
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1117 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

A COOL AIR MASS HAS SETTLED INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND FROST
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY TONIGHT. A
FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND A
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE REMAINING AREAS OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THIS
WEEK...WITH A WARMUP AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ALONG
WITH THE WARMER AIR WILL COME CHANCES FOR RAIN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WAS ON WHETHER TO EXPAND A FROST
HEADLINE INTO THE COUNTIES THAT WERE NOT COVERED BY THE FREEZE
WARNING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER. DECIDED TO DO THAT...SO A FROST
ADVISORY IS NOW IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESSENTIALLY FROM INTERSTATE 96 TO THE SOUTH. DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH THE DEW
POINT CURRENTLY AT GRAND RAPIDS AT 31 DEGREES. THINKING THE
STRATOCUMULUS WILL FADE WITH THE SETTING SUN THIS EVENING WHICH
SHOULD SET UP OK RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. ONE ITEM OF CONCERN IS A
CORE OF WIND THAT IS SEEN IN NAM CROSS SECTIONS IN BUFKIT.
STILL...GIVEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND VERY
DRY/COOL AIR ALREADY IN PLACE FELT HEADLINES WERE WARRANTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE QUIET. WE HAVE A DRY
FORECAST IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
SHORTWAVE THAT SLIDES BY THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BUT HAVE SIDED WITH THE DRY ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.
THE PRECIP SHOULD MISS US JUST TO THE SOUTH. ALSO ON THURSDAY...A
WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER PENINSULA WITH SOME SPOTTY
PRECIP AMOUNTS BEING KICKED OUT BY THE MODELS. MOISTURE IS NOT ALL
THAT DEEP IN THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT TIME FRAME SO AM
OPTING FOR DRY.

IT WILL BE COOL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NO MAJOR WARM ADVECTION
PUSH AT 850MB/S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR WET
WEATHER AND GUSTY WINDS GOING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF SATURDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES TO THE
EAST AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
EXTEND OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...GIVING WAY TO SOUTHERLY INFLUENCE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE SOMEWHAT OF A SIMILAR TRACK TO LAST WEEKENDS
SYSTEM...THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.

THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY
NIGHTS RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RESULTING ISENTROPIC
LIFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRANSITIONS FROM A CLOSED LOW TO A SHORT WAVE THAT IS EVENTUALLY
CONSUMED AROUND THE MAIN CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE HUDSON BAY. THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS HINGED UP OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY. WE MAY VERY WELL SEE A LULL
IN ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WE LOSE THE LIFT.

GOING INTO MEMORIAL DAY IS WHERE WE SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY
WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT SO IMPRESSIVE...AN 850MB JET CORE OF 40-50KTS MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WOULD
USUALLY TRIGGER SOME CONCERN...BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF LIMITING
FACTORS TO ANY REAL ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE BEST LIFT WOULD REMAIN
NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHILE THE BEST CAPE STAYS SOUTHEAST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE CREEP CLOSER TO
MONDAY IF CONDITIONS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. OTHERWISE...IT SEEMS
THE HOLIDAY WILL HAVE SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES
KAZO...KBTL AND KJXN LATER WED AFTN INTO THE EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...EVEN IF THEY DO OCCUR...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AS
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INITIALL REMAIN LIMITED. OTHERWISE THE
TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST MI SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING WINDS INTO WED
AND RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. AS A RESULT THE WAVES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

IN GENERAL...RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE
GRADUALLY FALLING. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE WITH LIMITED
QPF THIS WEEK. FAIR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL BE LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ050-056>059-
     064>067-071>074.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-
     051-052.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW/CAS
MARINE...MJS




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