Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KGRR 201930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/FIREWEATHER

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

EXPECT ONE MORE WARM DAY MONDAY WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 70 INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN BEFORE A COLD FRONT USHERS IN COLDER AIR AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN COOL
BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE STILL ON TRACK FOR A MONDAY EVENING FRONTAL
PASSAGE... WITH A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TOTAL QPF CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF THE
LUDINGTON AREA. ACTUALLY LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR COULD EVEN
STAY DRY UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY.

INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT SOME SKINNY CAPE IS PRESENT IN THE FCST
SOUNDINGS WITH MU CAPES UP TO 700 J/KG. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTAINING GUSTY
WINDS LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS CONVECTION
ENCOUNTERS OUR DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. INVERTED-V LOOKING
SOUNDINGS MAY BE PRESENT AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT/SPEED OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SUSPECT WE WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCU CLOUDS POURING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT IN COOL/CYCLONIC FLOW. HOWEVER DECREASING CLOUDS
SHOULD FOLLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS PROBABLY BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WX WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO A CONTINUED CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND AND SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN KMKG MONDAY
MORNING AND A LITTLE FURTHER SE INTO KGRR AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. THE
SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 18Z
MONDAY. CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A HIGH FIRE DANGER EXISTS OVER THE BULK OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AND MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20 PCT.
WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WITH
WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS.

HOWEVER SINCE WE ARE IN PRE GREEN UP MODE AND THE FINE FUELS ON
THE GROUND ARE EXTREMELY DRY... FIRES COULD SPREAD EASILY.

COORDINATED THE HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH THE DNR AND FOREST SERVICE
THIS MORNING. ISSUED A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON THE HIGH
FIRE DANGER WITH CALLS TO ACTIONS. SOCIAL MEDIA AND NWS GRR
HOMEPAGE ALSO USED TO GET THE WORD OUT.

AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY REDEVELOP ON MONDAY BEFORE THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT ARRIVE. HOWEVER DEW POINTS SHOULD BE
RISING THROUGH THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO MIN RH VALUES SHOULD
NOT BE AS LOW AS TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

MINOR FLOODING EXISTS ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT CROTON AND EVART.
THE DOWNWARD TREND CONTINUES ON ALL AREA RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES.
WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE ADVISORIES DROP OFF THE LIST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...LOCAL IMPACTS MAY STILL BE EVIDENT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG THE MUSKEGON RIVER.

LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
BEST CHANCES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10.
THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THATS
WHEN RAIN IS MORE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ADVERSE
AFFECTS ON RIVERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATER IN THE
WORK WEEK BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
FIRE WEATHER...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM











000
FXUS63 KGRR 201652
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1255 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY
AND MONDAY YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 70S BEFORE COOLER AIR FOLLOWS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND CHANCES
FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THESE SHOWERS
COINCIDE WITH THE LOCATION OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MODEL TRENDS
OVER THE PAST 24 HRS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THAT WON/T AFFECT TODAY/S FORECAST MUCH. STILL
EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE SOUTHERN
2/3 OF THE CWA. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CHC POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NRN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS JUST TIMING THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE CWA.
LIKELY POPS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA TONIGHT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE CWA MONDAY. THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE A BIT
MORE AMBITIOUS WITH INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF LOWER ELEVATED LI/S
MONDAY OVER THE NW CWA. WE ADDED SOME THUNDER TO THE NW CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IT/S IN THIS AREA THAT MUCAPE CLIMBS TO 600 J/KG AFTER
18Z JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW CROSSING CENTRAL LOWER.

COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WASN/T A DEEP LOW TO BEGIN WITH SO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
50S TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH RES EURO LOOKS WEAKER WITH THIS
FEATURE.  WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THEN.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PICK UP SOME GULF MOISTURE AND CONTAIN LIFT
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PRECIPITATION.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A RAIN
SHOWER...SO LIKELY POPS WILL BE FORECASTED.  GFS SHOWS WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT HIGH RES EURO KEEPS THE INSTABILITY SOUTH.  THIS
IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON THE THUNDER THREAT
TO ADD IT TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL MAINTAIN A LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS THEN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE
FORECAST WILL BE KEPT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND AND SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN KMKG MONDAY
MORNING AND A LITTLE FURTHER SE INTO KGRR AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. THE
SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 18Z
MONDAY. CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1127 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGH FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE
LOWER 70S WITH DEW PTS OF 25-35. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO 20 TO 25 PCT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON DURING PK HEATING...
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MUSKEGON TO MT PLEASANT WHERE
ONLY HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS ARE PRESENT.

WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY 10-15 MPH ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE AS DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS. CONDITIONS COULD
APPROACH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS
ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS.

HOWEVER SINCE WE ARE IN PRE GREEN UP MODE AND THE FINE FUELS ON
THE GROUND ARE EXTREMELY DRY... FIRES COULD SPREAD EASILY.
YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPS WERE ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND THERE WERE SOME
REPORTS OF GRASS FIRES WHICH SPREAD QUICKLY.

COORDINATED THE HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH THE DNR AND FOREST SERVICE
THIS MORNING. ISSUED A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON THE HIGH
FIRE DANGER WITH CALLS TO ACTIONS. SOCIAL MEDIA AND NWS GRR
HOMEPAGE ALSO USED TO GET THE WORD OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

MINOR FLOODING EXISTS ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT CROTON AND EVART.
THE DOWNWARD TREND CONTINUES ON ALL AREA RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES.
WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE ADVISORIES DROP OFF THE LIST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...LOCAL IMPACTS MAY STILL BE EVIDENT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG THE MUSKEGON RIVER.

LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
BEST CHANCES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10.
THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THATS
WHEN RAIN IS MORE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ADVERSE
AFFECTS ON RIVERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATER IN THE
WORK WEEK BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...LAURENS
FIRE WEATHER...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM









000
FXUS63 KGRR 201553
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1153 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY
AND MONDAY YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 70S BEFORE COOLER AIR FOLLOWS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND CHANCES
FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THESE SHOWERS
COINCIDE WITH THE LOCATION OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MODEL TRENDS
OVER THE PAST 24 HRS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THAT WON/T AFFECT TODAY/S FORECAST MUCH. STILL
EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE SOUTHERN
2/3 OF THE CWA. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CHC POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NRN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS JUST TIMING THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE CWA.
LIKELY POPS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA TONIGHT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE CWA MONDAY. THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE A BIT
MORE AMBITIOUS WITH INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF LOWER ELEVATED LI/S
MONDAY OVER THE NW CWA. WE ADDED SOME THUNDER TO THE NW CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IT/S IN THIS AREA THAT MUCAPE CLIMBS TO 600 J/KG AFTER
18Z JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW CROSSING CENTRAL LOWER.

COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WASN/T A DEEP LOW TO BEGIN WITH SO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
50S TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH RES EURO LOOKS WEAKER WITH THIS
FEATURE.  WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THEN.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PICK UP SOME GULF MOISTURE AND CONTAIN LIFT
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PRECIPITATION.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A RAIN
SHOWER...SO LIKELY POPS WILL BE FORECASTED.  GFS SHOWS WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT HIGH RES EURO KEEPS THE INSTABILITY SOUTH.  THIS
IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON THE THUNDER THREAT
TO ADD IT TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL MAINTAIN A LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS THEN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE
FORECAST WILL BE KEPT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS PREVAILS. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT
IT IS LOCATED ABOVE 10000 FT...SO SOME CLOUDINESS THERE. WIND
VALUES WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTHEAST TODAY...BUT AS WE WARM UP...THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE. MOST OF
THE TIME ANY GUSTS WILL BE UNDER 20 KNOTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1127 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGH FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE
LOWER 70S WITH DEW PTS OF 25-35. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO 20 TO 25 PCT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON DURING PK HEATING...
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MUSKEGON TO MT PLEASANT WHERE
ONLY HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS ARE PRESENT.

WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY 10-15 MPH ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE AS DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS. CONDITIONS COULD
APPROACH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS
ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS.

HOWEVER SINCE WE ARE IN PRE GREEN UP MODE AND THE FINE FUELS ON
THE GROUND ARE EXTREMELY DRY... FIRES COULD SPREAD EASILY.
YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPS WERE ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND THERE WERE SOME
REPORTS OF GRASS FIRES WHICH SPREAD QUICKLY.

COORDINATED THE HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH THE DNR AND FOREST SERVICE
THIS MORNING. ISSUED A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON THE HIGH
FIRE DANGER WITH CALLS TO ACTIONS. SOCIAL MEDIA AND NWS GRR
HOMEPAGE ALSO USED TO GET THE WORD OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

MINOR FLOODING EXISTS ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT CROTON AND EVART.
THE DOWNWARD TREND CONTINUES ON ALL AREA RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES.
WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE ADVISORIES DROP OFF THE LIST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...LOCAL IMPACTS MAY STILL BE EVIDENT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG THE MUSKEGON RIVER.

LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
BEST CHANCES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10.
THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THATS
WHEN RAIN IS MORE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ADVERSE
AFFECTS ON RIVERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATER IN THE
WORK WEEK BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
FIRE WEATHER...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 201527
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1127 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
FIRE WEATHER

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY
AND MONDAY YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 70S BEFORE COOLER AIR FOLLOWS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND CHANCES
FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THESE SHOWERS
COINCIDE WITH THE LOCATION OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MODEL TRENDS
OVER THE PAST 24 HRS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THAT WON/T AFFECT TODAY/S FORECAST MUCH. STILL
EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE SOUTHERN
2/3 OF THE CWA. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CHC POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NRN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS JUST TIMING THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE CWA.
LIKELY POPS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA TONIGHT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE CWA MONDAY. THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE A BIT
MORE AMBITIOUS WITH INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF LOWER ELEVATED LI/S
MONDAY OVER THE NW CWA. WE ADDED SOME THUNDER TO THE NW CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IT/S IN THIS AREA THAT MUCAPE CLIMBS TO 600 J/KG AFTER
18Z JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW CROSSING CENTRAL LOWER.

COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WASN/T A DEEP LOW TO BEGIN WITH SO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
50S TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH RES EURO LOOKS WEAKER WITH THIS
FEATURE.  WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THEN.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PICK UP SOME GULF MOISTURE AND CONTAIN LIFT
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PRECIPITATION.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A RAIN
SHOWER...SO LIKELY POPS WILL BE FORECASTED.  GFS SHOWS WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT HIGH RES EURO KEEPS THE INSTABILITY SOUTH.  THIS
IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON THE THUNDER THREAT
TO ADD IT TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL MAINTAIN A LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS THEN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE
FORECAST WILL BE KEPT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS PREVAILS. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT
IT IS LOCATED ABOVE 10000 FT...SO SOME CLOUDINESS THERE. WIND
VALUES WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTHEAST TODAY...BUT AS WE WARM UP...THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE. MOST OF
THE TIME ANY GUSTS WILL BE UNDER 20 KNOTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1127 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGH FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE
LOWER 70S WITH DEW PTS OF 25-35. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO 20 TO 25 PCT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON DURING PK HEATING...
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MUSKEGON TO MT PLEASANT WHERE
ONLY HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS ARE PRESENT.

WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY 10-15 MPH ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE AS DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS. CONDITIONS COULD
APPROACH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS
ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS.

HOWEVER SINCE WE ARE IN PRE GREEN UP MODE AND THE FINE FUELS ON
THE GROUND ARE EXTREMELY DRY... FIRES COULD SPREAD EASILY.
YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPS WERE ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND THERE WERE SOME
REPORTS OF GRASS FIRES WHICH SPREAD QUICKLY.

COORDINATED THE HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH THE DNR AND FOREST SERVICE
THIS MORNING. ISSUED A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON THE HIGH
FIRE DANGER WITH CALLS TO ACTIONS. SOCIAL MEDIA AND NWS GRR
HOMEPAGE ALSO USED TO GET THE WORD OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER...
OTHERWISE MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ON AREA RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES. LOCAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MUSKEGON
RIVER FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH MECOSTA...NEWAYGO...AND
MUSKEGON COUNTIES. WITH A RECEDING TREND...THE IMPACTS WILL BE LESS
AND LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALL AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. QPF AMOUNTS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT
CHANGE THE FALLING RIVER LEVELS MUCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
FIRE WEATHER...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...HOVING








000
FXUS63 KGRR 201006
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
606 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY
AND MONDAY YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 70S BEFORE COOLER AIR FOLLOWS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND CHANCES
FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THESE SHOWERS
COINCIDE WITH THE LOCATION OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MODEL TRENDS
OVER THE PAST 24 HRS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THAT WON/T AFFECT TODAY/S FORECAST MUCH. STILL
EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE SOUTHERN
2/3 OF THE CWA. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CHC POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NRN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS JUST TIMING THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE CWA.
LIKELY POPS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA TONIGHT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE CWA MONDAY. THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE A BIT
MORE AMBITIOUS WITH INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF LOWER ELEVATED LI/S
MONDAY OVER THE NW CWA. WE ADDED SOME THUNDER TO THE NW CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IT/S IN THIS AREA THAT MUCAPE CLIMBS TO 600 J/KG AFTER
18Z JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW CROSSING CENTRAL LOWER.

COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WASN/T A DEEP LOW TO BEGIN WITH SO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
50S TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH RES EURO LOOKS WEAKER WITH THIS
FEATURE.  WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THEN.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PICK UP SOME GULF MOISTURE AND CONTAIN LIFT
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PRECIPITATION.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A RAIN
SHOWER...SO LIKELY POPS WILL BE FORECASTED.  GFS SHOWS WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT HIGH RES EURO KEEPS THE INSTABILITY SOUTH.  THIS
IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON THE THUNDER THREAT
TO ADD IT TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL MAINTAIN A LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS THEN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE
FORECAST WILL BE KEPT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS PREVAILS. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT
IT IS LOCATED ABOVE 10000 FT...SO SOME CLOUDINESS THERE. WIND
VALUES WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTHEAST TODAY...BUT AS WE WARM UP...THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE. MOST OF
THE TIME ANY GUSTS WILL BE UNDER 20 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER...
OTHERWISE MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ON AREA RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES. LOCAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MUSKEGON
RIVER FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH MECOSTA...NEWAYGO...AND
MUSKEGON COUNTIES. WITH A RECEDING TREND...THE IMPACTS WILL BE LESS
AND LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALL AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. QPF AMOUNTS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT
CHANGE THE FALLING RIVER LEVELS MUCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...HOVING








000
FXUS63 KGRR 200716
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY
AND MONDAY YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 70S BEFORE COOLER AIR FOLLOWS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND CHANCES
FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THESE SHOWERS
COINCIDE WITH THE LOCATION OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MODEL TRENDS
OVER THE PAST 24 HRS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THAT WON/T AFFECT TODAY/S FORECAST MUCH. STILL
EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE SOUTHERN
2/3 OF THE CWA. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CHC POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NRN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS JUST TIMING THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE CWA.
LIKELY POPS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA TONIGHT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE CWA MONDAY. THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE A BIT
MORE AMBITIOUS WITH INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF LOWER ELEVATED LI/S
MONDAY OVER THE NW CWA. WE ADDED SOME THUNDER TO THE NW CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IT/S IN THIS AREA THAT MUCAPE CLIMBS TO 600 J/KG AFTER
18Z JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW CROSSING CENTRAL LOWER.

COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WASN/T A DEEP LOW TO BEGIN WITH SO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
50S TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH RES EURO LOOKS WEAKER WITH THIS
FEATURE.  WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THEN.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PICK UP SOME GULF MOISTURE AND CONTAIN LIFT
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PRECIPITATION.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A RAIN
SHOWER...SO LIKELY POPS WILL BE FORECASTED.  GFS SHOWS WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT HIGH RES EURO KEEPS THE INSTABILITY SOUTH.  THIS
IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON THE THUNDER THREAT
TO ADD IT TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.  SO WILL MAINTAIN A LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS THEN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE
FORECAST WILL BE KEPT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM 500 FT TO
1500 FT AGL OVERNIGHT BUT GIVEN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT SURFACE WINDS
SEEMS THE SHEAR IS NOT ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT LLWS. WINDS INCREASE
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SKIES STAY CLEAR BELOW 12000 FT AGL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER...
OTHERWISE MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ON AREA RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES. LOCAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MUSKEGON
RIVER FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH MECOSTA...NEWAYGO...AND
MUSKEGON COUNTIES. WITH A RECEDING TREND...THE IMPACTS WILL BE LESS
AND LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALL AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. QPF AMOUNTS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT
CHANGE THE FALLING RIVER LEVELS MUCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...HOVING











000
FXUS63 KGRR 200338
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1138 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL FEATURE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND
OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY PRODUCE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AREAWIDE WILL COME ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CLIPPING AREAS
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MUSKEGON TO MT PLEASANT. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS
LINE SHOULD STAY DRY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SEND HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S.

GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF FROPA OVER THE NW CWFA AROUND 00Z
TUESDAY AND IN THE SE CWFA AROUND 06Z TUESDAY. WILL CARRY A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT... ALTHOUGH MODEL
CONSENSUS QPF IS GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS AND THE RAIN
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE HIGH RIVER LEVELS.

STILL NOT ENOUGH CONVINCING EVIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO ADD THUNDER TO
THE FCST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. SFC DEWPTS STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MU CAPES UP TO
500 J/KG IS INDICATED. STILL SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IN LATER FCSTS.

SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
MONDAY AS WELL BEFORE FROPA DUE TO AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES AROUND 25
PCT AND PRE GREEN UP CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
WITH SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE SMALL SCALE FEATURES. THE FORECAST IS
MOST SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH WILL PICK UP WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOOKING TOO STABLE TO
INTRODUCE THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING IN WITH THE COLD FRONT... GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF
DECENT LIFT AND GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THIS IS A LOW
PROBABILITY... SO DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. THERE SHOULD BE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY... AS THE LOW MEANDERS BY
JUST TO THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM AND RISE TO
NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VALUES WILL FALL BACK
BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60 DEGREES AND NORMAL
LOWS ARE AROUND 40 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM 500 FT TO
1500 FT AGL OVERNIGHT BUT GIVEN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT SURFACE WINDS
SEEMS THE SHEAR IS NOT ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT LLWS. WINDS INCREASE
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SKIES STAY CLEAR BELOW 12000 FT AGL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER...
OTHERWISE MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ON AREA RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES. LOCAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MUSKEGON
RIVER FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH MECOSTA...NEWAYGO...AND
MUSKEGON COUNTIES. WITH A RECEDING TREND...THE IMPACTS WILL BE LESS
AND LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALL AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. QPF AMOUNTS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT
CHANGE THE FALLING RIVER LEVELS MUCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...HOVING








000
FXUS63 KGRR 192244
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
644 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL FEATURE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND
OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY PRODUCE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AREAWIDE WILL COME ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CLIPPING AREAS
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MUSKEGON TO MT PLEASANT. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS
LINE SHOULD STAY DRY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SEND HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S.

GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF FROPA OVER THE NW CWFA AROUND 00Z
TUESDAY AND IN THE SE CWFA AROUND 06Z TUESDAY. WILL CARRY A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT... ALTHOUGH MODEL
CONSENSUS QPF IS GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS AND THE RAIN
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE HIGH RIVER LEVELS.

STILL NOT ENOUGH CONVINCING EVIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO ADD THUNDER TO
THE FCST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. SFC DEWPTS STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MU CAPES UP TO
500 J/KG IS INDICATED. STILL SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IN LATER FCSTS.

SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
MONDAY AS WELL BEFORE FROPA DUE TO AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES AROUND 25
PCT AND PRE GREEN UP CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
WITH SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE SMALL SCALE FEATURES. THE FORECAST IS
MOST SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH WILL PICK UP WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOOKING TOO STABLE TO
INTRODUCE THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING IN WITH THE COLD FRONT... GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF
DECENT LIFT AND GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THIS IS A LOW
PROBABILITY... SO DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. THERE SHOULD BE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY... AS THE LOW MEANDERS BY
JUST TO THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM AND RISE TO
NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VALUES WILL FALL BACK
BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60 DEGREES AND NORMAL
LOWS ARE AROUND 40 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

I EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AT ALL OF OUR
TAF SITES. THE BAND OF FRONTAL RELATED RAIN AND THE ASSOCIATED
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR TAF
SITES SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY WE
COULD SEE THE SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

OTHER THAN THAT... THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR WIND SHEAR ISSUES OVER
NIGHT AS WINDS NEAR 1000 FT AGL SHOULD BE SOUTH AROUND 25 KNOTS
BUT WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS. ON
SUNDAY THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOT AT
MOST OF THE TAF SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER...
OTHERWISE MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ON AREA RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES. LOCAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MUSKEGON
RIVER FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH MECOSTA...NEWAYGO...AND
MUSKEGON COUNTIES. WITH A RECEDING TREND...THE IMPACTS WILL BE LESS
AND LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALL AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. QPF AMOUNTS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT
CHANGE THE FALLING RIVER LEVELS MUCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...HOVING








000
FXUS63 KGRR 191930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL FEATURE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND
OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY PRODUCE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AREAWIDE WILL COME ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CLIPPING AREAS
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MUSKEGON TO MT PLEASANT. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS
LINE SHOULD STAY DRY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SEND HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S.

GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF FROPA OVER THE NW CWFA AROUND 00Z
TUESDAY AND IN THE SE CWFA AROUND 06Z TUESDAY. WILL CARRY A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT... ALTHOUGH MODEL
CONSENSUS QPF IS GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS AND THE RAIN
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE HIGH RIVER LEVELS.

STILL NOT ENOUGH CONVINCING EVIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO ADD THUNDER TO
THE FCST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. SFC DEWPTS STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MU CAPES UP TO
500 J/KG IS INDICATED. STILL SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IN LATER FCSTS.

SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
MONDAY AS WELL BEFORE FROPA DUE TO AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES AROUND 25
PCT AND PRE GREEN UP CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
WITH SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE SMALL SCALE FEATURES. THE FORECAST IS
MOST SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH WILL PICK UP WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOOKING TOO STABLE TO
INTRODUCE THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING IN WITH THE COLD FRONT... GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF
DECENT LIFT AND GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THIS IS A LOW
PROBABILITY... SO DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. THERE SHOULD BE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY... AS THE LOW MEANDERS BY
JUST TO THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM AND RISE TO
NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VALUES WILL FALL BACK
BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60 DEGREES AND NORMAL
LOWS ARE AROUND 40 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER...
OTHERWISE MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ON AREA RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES. LOCAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MUSKEGON
RIVER FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH MECOSTA...NEWAYGO...AND
MUSKEGON COUNTIES. WITH A RECEDING TREND...THE IMPACTS WILL BE LESS
AND LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALL AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. QPF AMOUNTS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT
CHANGE THE FALLING RIVER LEVELS MUCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...63
HYDROLOGY...HOVING











000
FXUS63 KGRR 191709
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
109 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY AND BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE
COOLER WEATHER IN THE 50S RETURNS TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
MOVING ENE. THAT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT AS IT DRAGS A
COLD FRONT EAST WARD. QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS AND THOSE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA SUNDAY. WE/LL
STILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE SUNDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TO PUSH
TEMPS TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE CWA. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME WEAKNESS IN THE STABILITY
FIELD NOTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED LI/S DON/T FALL
BELOW 0C...THERE IS SOME MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT THUNDER IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL TAKE A
LOOK AT LATER MODEL RUNS.

GIVEN THE INCREASE IN TEMPS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES...THE FIRE DANGER
WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS PLANTS AND TREES HAVE NOT
GREENED UP YET. HOWEVER WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH PAST
15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION TO MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LIFT...THE ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD BE SCATTERED.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SENDING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM STAYS WITH SOUTHWEST LOWER MI RIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH AT SOME POINT THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.  WITH MODELS
TRENDING FASTER WITH THE FRONT...LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO I DID BUMP UP POPS THEN.  VERY LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY IS SHOWN IN THE MODELS...SO I WILL KEEP IT AT SHOWERS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVING IN WITH THE COLD FRONT GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF DECENT LIFT
AND GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

RIVER FLOODING HAS BY NO MEANS ENDED ACROSS THE MUSKEGON RIVER.
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES...WITH EVART FINALLY FALLING
BELOW MAJOR FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TONIGHT / EARLY SATURDAY. THE
CROTON DAM CONTINUES TO STEADILY RELEASE LESS FLOW DOWNSTREAM...AND
SHOULD FALL BELOW MODERATE FLOOD BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH WATER
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TRAVEL AROUND THE RIVER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WILL STILL BE AFFECTING MANY PROPERTIES THAT HAVE
ALREADY FLOODED. NO RISES ARE FORESEEN ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AREAL FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGHOUT NEWAYGO COUNTY...WHICH HAS NOT
RECOVERED FROM HIGH WATER IMPACTS TO THE ROAD SYSTEMS. AS
SUCH...THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COUNTY FOR SOME
WATER COVERED ROADS THAT ARE IMPEDING TRAVEL.

ELSEWHERE...RIVER FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED CONSIDERABLY ON THE PERE
MARQUETTE...WHITE...AND CHIPPEWA RIVERS. THE GRAND RIVER IS
RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL AT THIS TIME BUT NO SERIOUS IMPACTS TO
HOMES OR PROPERTIES ARE OCCURRING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...63
HYDROLOGY...HOVING








000
FXUS63 KGRR 191047
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
647 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY AND BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE
COOLER WEATHER IN THE 50S RETURNS TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
MOVING ENE. THAT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT AS IT DRAGS A
COLD FRONT EAST WARD. QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS AND THOSE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA SUNDAY. WE/LL
STILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE SUNDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TO PUSH
TEMPS TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE CWA. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME WEAKNESS IN THE STABILITY
FIELD NOTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED LI/S DON/T FALL
BELOW 0C...THERE IS SOME MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT THUNDER IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL TAKE A
LOOK AT LATER MODEL RUNS.

GIVEN THE INCREASE IN TEMPS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES...THE FIRE DANGER
WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS PLANTS AND TREES HAVE NOT
GREENED UP YET. HOWEVER WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH PAST
15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION TO MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LIFT...THE ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD BE SCATTERED.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SENDING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM STAYS WITH SOUTHWEST LOWER MI RIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH AT SOME POINT THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.  WITH MODELS
TRENDING FASTER WITH THE FRONT...LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO I DID BUMP UP POPS THEN.  VERY LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY IS SHOWN IN THE MODELS...SO I WILL KEEP IT AT SHOWERS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVING IN WITH THE COLD FRONT GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF DECENT LIFT
AND GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

QUIET WEATHER IN THE AVIATION FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY. THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER VFR FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

RIVER FLOODING HAS BY NO MEANS ENDED ACROSS THE MUSKEGON RIVER.
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES...WITH EVART FINALLY FALLING
BELOW MAJOR FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TONIGHT / EARLY SATURDAY. THE
CROTON DAM CONTINUES TO STEADILY RELEASE LESS FLOW DOWNSTREAM...AND
SHOULD FALL BELOW MODERATE FLOOD BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH WATER
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TRAVEL AROUND THE RIVER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WILL STILL BE AFFECTING MANY PROPERTIES THAT HAVE
ALREADY FLOODED. NO RISES ARE FORESEEN ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AREAL FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGHOUT NEWAYGO COUNTY...WHICH HAS NOT
RECOVERED FROM HIGH WATER IMPACTS TO THE ROAD SYSTEMS. AS
SUCH...THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COUNTY FOR SOME
WATER COVERED ROADS THAT ARE IMPEDING TRAVEL.

ELSEWHERE...RIVER FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED CONSIDERABLY ON THE PERE
MARQUETTE...WHITE...AND CHIPPEWA RIVERS. THE GRAND RIVER IS
RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL AT THIS TIME BUT NO SERIOUS IMPACTS TO
HOMES OR PROPERTIES ARE OCCURRING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...HOVING








000
FXUS63 KGRR 190721
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY AND BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE
COOLER WEATHER IN THE 50S RETURNS TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
MOVING ENE. THAT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT AS IT DRAGS A
COLD FRONT EAST WARD. QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS AND THOSE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA SUNDAY. WE/LL
STILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE SUNDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TO PUSH
TEMPS TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE CWA. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME WEAKNESS IN THE STABILITY
FIELD NOTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED LI/S DON/T FALL
BELOW 0C...THERE IS SOME MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT THUNDER IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL TAKE A
LOOK AT LATER MODEL RUNS.

GIVEN THE INCREASE IN TEMPS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES...THE FIRE DANGER
WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS PLANTS AND TREES HAVE NOT
GREENED UP YET. HOWEVER WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH PAST
15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION TO MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LIFT...THE ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD BE SCATTERED.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SENDING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM STAYS WITH SOUTHWEST LOWER MI RIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH AT SOME POINT THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.  WITH MODELS
TRENDING FASTER WITH THE FRONT...LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO I DID BUMP UP POPS THEN.  VERY LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY IS SHOWN IN THE MODELS...SO I WILL KEEP IT AT SHOWERS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVING IN WITH THE COLD FRONT GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF DECENT LIFT
AND GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS FROM
THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL FOR THE MOST PART STAY
CLEAR.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

RIVER FLOODING HAS BY NO MEANS ENDED ACROSS THE MUSKEGON RIVER.
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES...WITH EVART FINALLY FALLING
BELOW MAJOR FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TONIGHT / EARLY SATURDAY. THE
CROTON DAM CONTINUES TO STEADILY RELEASE LESS FLOW DOWNSTREAM...AND
SHOULD FALL BELOW MODERATE FLOOD BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH WATER
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TRAVEL AROUND THE RIVER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WILL STILL BE AFFECTING MANY PROPERTIES THAT HAVE
ALREADY FLOODED. NO RISES ARE FORESEEN ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AREAL FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGHOUT NEWAYGO COUNTY...WHICH HAS NOT
RECOVERED FROM HIGH WATER IMPACTS TO THE ROAD SYSTEMS. AS
SUCH...THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COUNTY FOR SOME
WATER COVERED ROADS THAT ARE IMPEDING TRAVEL.

ELSEWHERE...RIVER FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED CONSIDERABLY ON THE PERE
MARQUETTE...WHITE...AND CHIPPEWA RIVERS. THE GRAND RIVER IS
RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL AT THIS TIME BUT NO SERIOUS IMPACTS TO
HOMES OR PROPERTIES ARE OCCURRING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...HOVING











000
FXUS63 KGRR 190349
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A PLEASANT WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60
SATURDAY AND NEAR 70 ON EASTER SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MONDAY WILL BE RATHER MILD AS WELL... WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREAWIDE. HOWEVER COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM. COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS OF 30 DEGREES OR MORE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TYPICALLY IN THIS REGIME WE SEE CAN SEE LOWS 5 DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE AND HIGHS 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS. THIS MAY DRIVE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES DOWN BELOW 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS... POSSIBLY CREATING A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE RISK.

FOR THE MOST PART THE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS IS GOOD NEWS AS SOME FLOODING STILL CONTINUES ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER.  IF SHOWERS DO OCCUR ALONG THE U.S. 10 CORRIDOR...
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

WE CONTINUE TO TO WATCH TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS IN THE LONG TERM. THE
FIRST SYSTEM IS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...WHILE THE OTHER
IS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WE HAVE NOT REALLY MADE ANY CHANGES TO
THE FIRST SYSTEM. WE ARE NOW SIDING WITH THE COOLER SOLUTION FOR THE
SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...SO WE HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWN A
BIT FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SOME DRY AND WARM WEATHER EARLY ON
MON...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SE YOU GO. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
START OUT THE DAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS A SRN STREAM WAVE AND NRN
STREAM WAVE BOTH MOVE INTO THE AREA. IT WILL BE AT THIS TIME THAT
RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL LAST INTO EARLY TUE
UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL THEN
FILTER INTO THE AREA.

WE WILL SEE A DRY AND COOL PERIOD THEN FOR LATER TUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. WE WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL USHER IN COOL AIR WITH THE
NRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC RIDGE. THIS AIR WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS
COLD AS THIS PAST TUE...AS HIGH SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 50S.

YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THAT WE MAY BE HEADED FOR ANOTHER MAJOR WARM
UP FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE WARM UP HAS BEEN
REDUCED DRASTICALLY...AS WE NOW BELIEVE IT WILL BE COOLER AND MORE
WET. WE ARE FOLLOWING THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS MINUS THE GFS
SUITE WHERE THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKER AND THE WARM AIR WILL NOT
MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

IT SEEMS THAT THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH A
STRONGER UPPER LOW. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE EXHIBITING ITS COMMON BIAS
OF HAVING TOO STRONG OF AN UPPER LOW DUE TO ABNORMALLY STRONG SHORT
WAVES LIKELY DUE TO CONVECTION. THE OTHER MODELS AND EURO ENSEMBLE
FAVOR A WEAKER LOW AND FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH WOULD END UP COOLER. WE
HAVE NOT ENTIRELY BOUGHT INTO THIS YET...BUT HAVE TRENDED THE FCST
COOLER AND WETTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS FROM
THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL FOR THE MOST PART STAY CLEAR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS WITH WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH. FIRES COULD SPREAD EASILY SINCE GREEN UP HAS NOT
YET OCCURRED AND THE FINE FUELS ON THE GROUND ARE DRY EVEN THOUGH
SOILS ARE MOIST FROM RECENT RAINS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

RIVER FLOODING HAS BY NO MEANS ENDED ACROSS THE MUSKEGON RIVER.
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES...WITH EVART FINALLY FALLING
BELOW MAJOR FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TONIGHT / EARLY SATURDAY. THE
CROTON DAM CONTINUES TO STEADILY RELEASE LESS FLOW DOWNSTREAM...AND
SHOULD FALL BELOW MODERATE FLOOD BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH WATER
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TRAVEL AROUND THE RIVER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WILL STILL BE AFFECTING MANY PROPERTIES THAT HAVE
ALREADY FLOODED. NO RISES ARE FORESEEN ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AREAL FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGHOUT NEWAYGO COUNTY...WHICH HAS NOT
RECOVERED FROM HIGH WATER IMPACTS TO THE ROAD SYSTEMS. AS
SUCH...THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COUNTY FOR SOME
WATER COVERED ROADS THAT ARE IMPEDING TRAVEL.

ELSEWHERE...RIVER FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED CONSIDERABLY ON THE PERE
MARQUETTE...WHITE...AND CHIPPEWA RIVERS. THE GRAND RIVER IS
RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL AT THIS TIME BUT NO SERIOUS IMPACTS TO
HOMES OR PROPERTIES ARE OCCURRING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
FIRE WEATHER...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...HOVING








000
FXUS63 KGRR 182253
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
653 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A PLEASANT WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60
SATURDAY AND NEAR 70 ON EASTER SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MONDAY WILL BE RATHER MILD AS WELL... WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREAWIDE. HOWEVER COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM. COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS OF 30 DEGREES OR MORE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TYPICALLY IN THIS REGIME WE SEE CAN SEE LOWS 5 DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE AND HIGHS 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS. THIS MAY DRIVE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES DOWN BELOW 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS... POSSIBLY CREATING A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE RISK.

FOR THE MOST PART THE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS IS GOOD NEWS AS SOME FLOODING STILL CONTINUES ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER.  IF SHOWERS DO OCCUR ALONG THE U.S. 10 CORRIDOR...
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

WE CONTINUE TO TO WATCH TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS IN THE LONG TERM. THE
FIRST SYSTEM IS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...WHILE THE OTHER
IS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WE HAVE NOT REALLY MADE ANY CHANGES TO
THE FIRST SYSTEM. WE ARE NOW SIDING WITH THE COOLER SOLUTION FOR THE
SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...SO WE HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWN A
BIT FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SOME DRY AND WARM WEATHER EARLY ON
MON...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SE YOU GO. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
START OUT THE DAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS A SRN STREAM WAVE AND NRN
STREAM WAVE BOTH MOVE INTO THE AREA. IT WILL BE AT THIS TIME THAT
RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL LAST INTO EARLY TUE
UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL THEN
FILTER INTO THE AREA.

WE WILL SEE A DRY AND COOL PERIOD THEN FOR LATER TUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. WE WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL USHER IN COOL AIR WITH THE
NRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC RIDGE. THIS AIR WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS
COLD AS THIS PAST TUE...AS HIGH SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 50S.

YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THAT WE MAY BE HEADED FOR ANOTHER MAJOR WARM
UP FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE WARM UP HAS BEEN
REDUCED DRASTICALLY...AS WE NOW BELIEVE IT WILL BE COOLER AND MORE
WET. WE ARE FOLLOWING THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS MINUS THE GFS
SUITE WHERE THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKER AND THE WARM AIR WILL NOT
MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

IT SEEMS THAT THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH A
STRONGER UPPER LOW. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE EXHIBITING ITS COMMON BIAS
OF HAVING TOO STRONG OF AN UPPER LOW DUE TO ABNORMALLY STRONG SHORT
WAVES LIKELY DUE TO CONVECTION. THE OTHER MODELS AND EURO ENSEMBLE
FAVOR A WEAKER LOW AND FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH WOULD END UP COOLER. WE
HAVE NOT ENTIRELY BOUGHT INTO THIS YET...BUT HAVE TRENDED THE FCST
COOLER AND WETTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AFTER DARK THEN
SLOWLY TURN TO THE EAST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS WITH WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH. FIRES COULD SPREAD EASILY SINCE GREEN UP HAS NOT
YET OCCURRED AND THE FINE FUELS ON THE GROUND ARE DRY EVEN THOUGH
SOILS ARE MOIST FROM RECENT RAINS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

RIVER FLOODING HAS BY NO MEANS ENDED ACROSS THE MUSKEGON RIVER.
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES...WITH EVART FINALLY FALLING
BELOW MAJOR FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TONIGHT / EARLY SATURDAY. THE
CROTON DAM CONTINUES TO STEADILY RELEASE LESS FLOW DOWNSTREAM...AND
SHOULD FALL BELOW MODERATE FLOOD BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH WATER
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TRAVEL AROUND THE RIVER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WILL STILL BE AFFECTING MANY PROPERTIES THAT HAVE
ALREADY FLOODED. NO RISES ARE FORESEEN ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AREAL FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGHOUT NEWAYGO COUNTY...WHICH HAS NOT
RECOVERED FROM HIGH WATER IMPACTS TO THE ROAD SYSTEMS. AS
SUCH...THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COUNTY FOR SOME
WATER COVERED ROADS THAT ARE IMPEDING TRAVEL.

ELSEWHERE...RIVER FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED CONSIDERABLY ON THE PERE
MARQUETTE...WHITE...AND CHIPPEWA RIVERS. THE GRAND RIVER IS
RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL AT THIS TIME BUT NO SERIOUS IMPACTS TO
HOMES OR PROPERTIES ARE OCCURRING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
FIRE WEATHER...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...HOVING








000
FXUS63 KGRR 181930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A PLEASANT WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60
SATURDAY AND NEAR 70 ON EASTER SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MONDAY WILL BE RATHER MILD AS WELL... WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREAWIDE. HOWEVER COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM. COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS OF 30 DEGREES OR MORE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TYPICALLY IN THIS REGIME WE SEE CAN SEE LOWS 5 DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE AND HIGHS 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS. THIS MAY DRIVE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES DOWN BELOW 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS... POSSIBLY CREATING A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE RISK.

FOR THE MOST PART THE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS IS GOOD NEWS AS SOME FLOODING STILL CONTINUES ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER.  IF SHOWERS DO OCCUR ALONG THE U.S. 10 CORRIDOR...
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

WE CONTINUE TO TO WATCH TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS IN THE LONG TERM. THE
FIRST SYSTEM IS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...WHILE THE OTHER
IS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WE HAVE NOT REALLY MADE ANY CHANGES TO
THE FIRST SYSTEM. WE ARE NOW SIDING WITH THE COOLER SOLUTION FOR THE
SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...SO WE HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWN A
BIT FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SOME DRY AND WARM WEATHER EARLY ON
MON...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SE YOU GO. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
START OUT THE DAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS A SRN STREAM WAVE AND NRN
STREAM WAVE BOTH MOVE INTO THE AREA. IT WILL BE AT THIS TIME THAT
RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL LAST INTO EARLY TUE
UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL THEN
FILTER INTO THE AREA.

WE WILL SEE A DRY AND COOL PERIOD THEN FOR LATER TUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. WE WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL USHER IN COOL AIR WITH THE
NRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC RIDGE. THIS AIR WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS
COLD AS THIS PAST TUE...AS HIGH SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 50S.

YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THAT WE MAY BE HEADED FOR ANOTHER MAJOR WARM
UP FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE WARM UP HAS BEEN
REDUCED DRASTICALLY...AS WE NOW BELIEVE IT WILL BE COOLER AND MORE
WET. WE ARE FOLLOWING THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS MINUS THE GFS
SUITE WHERE THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKER AND THE WARM AIR WILL NOT
MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

IT SEEMS THAT THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH A
STRONGER UPPER LOW. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE EXHIBITING ITS COMMON BIAS
OF HAVING TOO STRONG OF AN UPPER LOW DUE TO ABNORMALLY STRONG SHORT
WAVES LIKELY DUE TO CONVECTION. THE OTHER MODELS AND EURO ENSEMBLE
FAVOR A WEAKER LOW AND FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH WOULD END UP COOLER. WE
HAVE NOT ENTIRELY BOUGHT INTO THIS YET...BUT HAVE TRENDED THE FCST
COOLER AND WETTER.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WITH VFR EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND LIKELY WELL BEYOND. DIURNAL
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COOLER AIR MOVING IN. THESE CLOUDS ARE 3500 FT AND ABOVE AT THE
TERMINALS...AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO LIFT HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT SCT CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE LAKE...AND MORE BKN INLAND.

DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH STEADILY THIS EVENING...AND SKIES
SHOULD GO CLEAR. NNW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NE OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY SE ON SAT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SAT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS WITH WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH. FIRES COULD SPREAD EASILY SINCE GREEN UP HAS NOT
YET OCCURRED AND THE FINE FUELS ON THE GROUND ARE DRY EVEN THOUGH
SOILS ARE MOIST FROM RECENT RAINS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

RIVER FLOODING HAS BY NO MEANS ENDED ACROSS THE MUSKEGON RIVER.
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES...WITH EVART FINALLY FALLING
BELOW MAJOR FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TONIGHT / EARLY SATURDAY. THE
CROTON DAM CONTINUES TO STEADILY RELEASE LESS FLOW DOWNSTREAM...AND
SHOULD FALL BELOW MODERATE FLOOD BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH WATER
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TRAVEL AROUND THE RIVER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WILL STILL BE AFFECTING MANY PROPERTIES THAT HAVE
ALREADY FLOODED. NO RISES ARE FORESEEN ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AREAL FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGHOUT NEWAYGO COUNTY...WHICH HAS NOT
RECOVERED FROM HIGH WATER IMPACTS TO THE ROAD SYSTEMS. AS
SUCH...THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COUNTY FOR SOME
WATER COVERED ROADS THAT ARE IMPEDING TRAVEL.

ELSEWHERE...RIVER FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED CONSIDERABLY ON THE PERE
MARQUETTE...WHITE...AND CHIPPEWA RIVERS. THE GRAND RIVER IS
RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL AT THIS TIME BUT NO SERIOUS IMPACTS TO
HOMES OR PROPERTIES ARE OCCURRING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
FIRE WEATHER...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...HOVING











000
FXUS63 KGRR 181725
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
125 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY BRINGING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AND BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. IT WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR
THE 70 DEGREE MARK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OF
ANY SIGNIFICANCE WILL NOT COME UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS OVER OUR SE FCST AREA BEFORE ENDING.
OTHERWISE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW LATER
TODAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

IT WILL BECOME MILD SUNDAY WITH SOME SUN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WARM
AIR ADVECTION HELPING TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96. THERE IS JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES SUNDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL STAY NORTH TO
NW OF OUR FCST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR FCST AREA DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER UP THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT IN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR
THIS EVENT AND THUNDER POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO AVOID IN THE
FORECAST.

WEAK SFC TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT
WASHES OUT WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK SFC RIDGING. THE RIDGING
MOVES EAST BY THURSDAY WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW ARRIVING AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY. MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL SFC LOW ARRIVES...WHICH APPEARS TO BE PAST THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WITH VFR EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND LIKELY WELL BEYOND. DIURNAL
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COOLER AIR MOVING IN. THESE CLOUDS ARE 3500 FT AND ABOVE AT THE
TERMINALS...AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO LIFT HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT SCT CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE LAKE...AND MORE BKN INLAND.

DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH STEADILY THIS EVENING...AND SKIES
SHOULD GO CLEAR. NNW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NE OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY SE ON SAT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SAT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

RIVER FLOODING HAS BY NO MEANS ENDED ACROSS THE MUSKEGON RIVER.
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES...WITH EVART FINALLY FALLING
BELOW MAJOR FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TONIGHT / EARLY SATURDAY. THE
CROTON DAM CONTINUES TO STEADILY RELEASE LESS FLOW DOWNSTREAM...AND
SHOULD FALL BELOW MODERATE FLOOD BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH WATER
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TRAVEL AROUND THE RIVER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WILL STILL BE AFFECTING MANY PROPERTIES THAT HAVE
ALREADY FLOODED. NO RISES ARE FORESEEN ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AREAL FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGHOUT NEWAYGO COUNTY...WHICH HAS NOT
RECOVERED FROM HIGH WATER IMPACTS TO THE ROAD SYSTEMS. AS
SUCH...THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COUNTY FOR SOME
WATER COVERED ROADS THAT ARE IMPEDING TRAVEL.

ELSEWHERE...RIVER FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED CONSIDERABLY ON THE PERE
MARQUETTE...WHITE...AND CHIPPEWA RIVERS. THE GRAND RIVER IS
RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL AT THIS TIME BUT NO SERIOUS IMPACTS TO
HOMES OR PROPERTIES ARE OCCURRING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...HOVING








000
FXUS63 KGRR 181711
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
111 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY BRINGING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AND BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. IT WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR
THE 70 DEGREE MARK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OF
ANY SIGNIFICANCE WILL NOT COME UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS OVER OUR SE FCST AREA BEFORE ENDING.
OTHERWISE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW LATER
TODAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

IT WILL BECOME MILD SUNDAY WITH SOME SUN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WARM
AIR ADVECTION HELPING TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96. THERE IS JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES SUNDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL STAY NORTH TO
NW OF OUR FCST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR FCST AREA DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER UP THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT IN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR
THIS EVENT AND THUNDER POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO AVOID IN THE
FORECAST.

WEAK SFC TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT
WASHES OUT WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK SFC RIDGING. THE RIDGING
MOVES EAST BY THURSDAY WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW ARRIVING AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY. MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL SFC LOW ARRIVES...WHICH APPEARS TO BE PAST THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WITH VFR EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND LIKELY WELL BEYOND. DIURNAL
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COOLER AIR MOVING IN. THESE CLOUDS ARE 3500 FT AND ABOVE AT THE
TERMINALS...AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO LIFT HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT SCT CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE LAKE...AND MORE BKN INLAND.

DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH STEADILY THIS EVENING...AND SKIES
SHOULD GO CLEAR. NNW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NE OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY SE ON SAT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SAT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

NUMEROUS AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WERE CANCELED TODAY BASED ON
UPDATED REPORTS FROM ROAD COMMISSIONS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS THAT
CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVING. FOR NEWAYGO...OSCEOLA...AND ISABELLA
COUNTIES THE AREA FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL WIDESPREAD
IMPROVEMENT IN ROAD CONDITIONS OCCURS DUE TO A RECESSION OF THE
FLOOD WATERS.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER CONTINUES WITH A
SLOW RECESSION FORECASTED. EVART WILL HOLD ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE CROTON WILL HOLD ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. AS SUCH...SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE PROPERTIES ALONG THE MUSKEGON
RIVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND UNFORTUNATELY. THE CROTON DAM
OPERATION CONTINUES TO REDUCE FLOWS DOWNSTREAM...LEADING TO A SLOW
AND STEADY DECLINE IN RIVER LEVELS FOR INTERESTS IN NEWAYGO AND
MUSKEGON COUNTIES. THE GOOD NEWS IS NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS IN
SIGHT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO THE RIVER RECESSION WILL CONTINUE.

THE PERE MARQUETTE AND CHIPPEWA RIVERS CONTINUE TO HOLD BETWEEN
MINOR AND MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WITH BOTH RIVERS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IMPACTS FROM FLOOD
WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THEN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...HOVING








000
FXUS63 KGRR 181148
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
748 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY BRINGING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AND BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. IT WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR
THE 70 DEGREE MARK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OF
ANY SIGNIFICANCE WILL NOT COME UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS OVER OUR SE FCST AREA BEFORE ENDING.
OTHERWISE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW LATER
TODAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

IT WILL BECOME MILD SUNDAY WITH SOME SUN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WARM
AIR ADVECTION HELPING TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96. THERE IS JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES SUNDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL STAY NORTH TO
NW OF OUR FCST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR FCST AREA DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER UP THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT IN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR
THIS EVENT AND THUNDER POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO AVOID IN THE
FORECAST.

WEAK SFC TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT
WASHES OUT WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK SFC RIDGING. THE RIDGING
MOVES EAST BY THURSDAY WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW ARRIVING AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY. MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL SFC LOW ARRIVES...WHICH APPEARS TO BE PAST THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

PATCHY IFR WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN INCLUDING BTL. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS
TODAY DECREASING TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

NUMEROUS AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WERE CANCELED TODAY BASED ON
UPDATED REPORTS FROM ROAD COMMISSIONS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS THAT
CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVING. FOR NEWAYGO...OSCEOLA...AND ISABELLA
COUNTIES THE AREA FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL WIDESPREAD
IMPROVEMENT IN ROAD CONDITIONS OCCURS DUE TO A RECESSION OF THE
FLOOD WATERS.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER CONTINUES WITH A
SLOW RECESSION FORECASTED. EVART WILL HOLD ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE CROTON WILL HOLD ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. AS SUCH...SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE PROPERTIES ALONG THE MUSKEGON
RIVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND UNFORTUNATELY. THE CROTON DAM
OPERATION CONTINUES TO REDUCE FLOWS DOWNSTREAM...LEADING TO A SLOW
AND STEADY DECLINE IN RIVER LEVELS FOR INTERESTS IN NEWAYGO AND
MUSKEGON COUNTIES. THE GOOD NEWS IS NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS IN
SIGHT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO THE RIVER RECESSION WILL CONTINUE.

THE PERE MARQUETTE AND CHIPPEWA RIVERS CONTINUE TO HOLD BETWEEN
MINOR AND MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WITH BOTH RIVERS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IMPACTS FROM FLOOD
WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THEN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...HOVING








000
FXUS63 KGRR 180729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY BRINGING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AND BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. IT WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR
THE 70 DEGREE MARK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OF
ANY SIGNIFICANCE WILL NOT COME UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS OVER OUR SE FCST AREA BEFORE ENDING.
OTHERWISE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW LATER
TODAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

IT WILL BECOME MILD SUNDAY WITH SOME SUN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WARM
AIR ADVECTION HELPING TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96. THERE IS JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES SUNDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL STAY NORTH TO
NW OF OUR FCST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR FCST AREA DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER UP THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT IN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR
THIS EVENT AND THUNDER POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO AVOID IN THE
FORECAST.

WEAK SFC TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT
WASHES OUT WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK SFC RIDGING. THE RIDGING
MOVES EAST BY THURSDAY WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW ARRIVING AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY. MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL SFC LOW ARRIVES...WHICH APPEARS TO BE PAST THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT ALL TAF SITES AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE A GOOD SHARE OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A NARROW
BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z FROM NEAR AZO
ACROSS TO LAN. CEILING WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN. I WOULD EXPECT A AREA OF MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP NEAR
INTESTATE 94 AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ALL OF THIS SHOULD
MOVE OUT JUST AFTER SUNRISE LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

NUMEROUS AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WERE CANCELED TODAY BASED ON
UPDATED REPORTS FROM ROAD COMMISSIONS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS THAT
CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVING. FOR NEWAYGO...OSCEOLA...AND ISABELLA
COUNTIES THE AREA FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL WIDESPREAD
IMPROVEMENT IN ROAD CONDITIONS OCCURS DUE TO A RECESSION OF THE
FLOOD WATERS.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER CONTINUES WITH A
SLOW RECESSION FORECASTED. EVART WILL HOLD ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE CROTON WILL HOLD ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. AS SUCH...SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE PROPERTIES ALONG THE MUSKEGON
RIVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND UNFORTUNATELY. THE CROTON DAM
OPERATION CONTINUES TO REDUCE FLOWS DOWNSTREAM...LEADING TO A SLOW
AND STEADY DECLINE IN RIVER LEVELS FOR INTERESTS IN NEWAYGO AND
MUSKEGON COUNTIES. THE GOOD NEWS IS NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS IN
SIGHT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO THE RIVER RECESSION WILL CONTINUE.

THE PERE MARQUETTE AND CHIPPEWA RIVERS CONTINUE TO HOLD BETWEEN
MINOR AND MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WITH BOTH RIVERS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IMPACTS FROM FLOOD
WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THEN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...HOVING









000
FXUS63 KGRR 180345
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL GENERATE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS... MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF RAND RAPIDS. SKIES WILL TURN SUNNY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT A CHILLY NIGHT WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND... WITH 70 DEGREE
READINGS LIKELY ON EASTER SUNDAY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW IN DEPICTING THE
FLARE UP OF A NARROW BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF LWR MI.

MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST... WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75
INCHES...ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT BY 06Z. AT THE SAME
TIME... A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A PV ANOMALY PASSING THROUGH AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.

BASED ON THE CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS... FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BUMP POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR JXN/LAN/BTL AREAS.
ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.

MODELS ARE ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON DECREASING CLOUDS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WILL FCST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
LAN/JXN MAY SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS INTO MID AFTERNOON.

SFC RIDGE BRINGS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH STAYS TO OUR NORTH WHICH HELPS
KEEP THE EAST WINDS UP AT AROUND 5-10 MPH. THIS MAY KEEP SRN
SECTIONS A BIT ABOVE FREEZING BUT AREAS NORTH OF I-96 SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 20S.

WARMEST HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY... IN THE LOWER 60S... SHOULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING ALONG THE LK MI SHORELINE FROM MKG SOUTHWARD
THANKS TO SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

WE ARE LOOKING AT TWO SYSTEMS IN THE LONG TERM...ONE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND ANOTHER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A GENERALLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE
PERIOD.

EASTER SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE QUITE A NICE DAY FOR SRN
AREAS...WHILE NRN AREAS WILL BE COOLER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
EVEN A STORM. WE WILL SEE A FRONT DROP DOWN INTO NRN MI BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. AREAS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE INCREASINGLY MORE SUNSHINE TO THE SOUTH
AND A BETTER SHOT AT BEING IN THE 70S.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MORE SO ON MON. MILD AIR WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA INTO MON. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
BRING A CHC OF RAIN. ANOTHER WAVE DIVING IN FROM THE NW WILL HELP TO
EVENTUALLY PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. WE SHOULD
SEE RAIN CHCS ENDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING.

WE WILL SEE DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MID-WEEK WITH NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING. A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH COMES
ONSHORE ACROSS CA OFF OF THE PACIFIC. WARMER AIR WITH A INCREASING
CHC OF RAIN WILL THEN DEVELOP ON THU. THE STRONG SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE PLAINS BY THU WILL BE PUMPING MUCH WARMER AND MOIST AIR IN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT ALL TAF SITES AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE A GOOD SHARE OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A NARROW
BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z FROM NEAR AZO
ACROSS TO LAN. CEILING WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN. I WOULD EXPECT A AREA OF MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP NEAR
INTESTATE 94 AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ALL OF THIS SHOULD
MOVE OUT JUST AFTER SUNRISE LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

NUMEROUS AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WERE CANCELED TODAY BASED ON
UPDATED REPORTS FROM ROAD COMMISSIONS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS THAT
CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVING. FOR NEWAYGO...OSCEOLA...AND ISABELLA
COUNTIES THE AREA FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL WIDESPREAD
IMPROVEMENT IN ROAD CONDITIONS OCCURS DUE TO A RECESSION OF THE
FLOOD WATERS.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER CONTINUES WITH A
SLOW RECESSION FORECASTED. EVART WILL HOLD ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE CROTON WILL HOLD ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. AS SUCH...SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE PROPERTIES ALONG THE MUSKEGON
RIVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND UNFORTUNATELY. THE CROTON DAM
OPERATION CONTINUES TO REDUCE FLOWS DOWNSTREAM...LEADING TO A SLOW
AND STEADY DECLINE IN RIVER LEVELS FOR INTERESTS IN NEWAYGO AND
MUSKEGON COUNTIES. THE GOOD NEWS IS NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS IN
SIGHT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO THE RIVER RECESSION WILL CONTINUE.

THE PERE MARQUETTE AND CHIPPEWA RIVERS CONTINUE TO HOLD BETWEEN
MINOR AND MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WITH BOTH RIVERS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IMPACTS FROM FLOOD
WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THEN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...HOVING








000
FXUS63 KGRR 172241
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
641 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL GENERATE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS... MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF RAND RAPIDS. SKIES WILL TURN SUNNY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT A CHILLY NIGHT WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND... WITH 70 DEGREE
READINGS LIKELY ON EASTER SUNDAY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW IN DEPICTING THE
FLARE UP OF A NARROW BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF LWR MI.

MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST... WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75
INCHES...ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT BY 06Z. AT THE SAME
TIME... A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A PV ANOMALY PASSING THROUGH AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.

BASED ON THE CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS... FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BUMP POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR JXN/LAN/BTL AREAS.
ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.

MODELS ARE ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON DECREASING CLOUDS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WILL FCST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
LAN/JXN MAY SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS INTO MID AFTERNOON.

SFC RIDGE BRINGS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH STAYS TO OUR NORTH WHICH HELPS
KEEP THE EAST WINDS UP AT AROUND 5-10 MPH. THIS MAY KEEP SRN
SECTIONS A BIT ABOVE FREEZING BUT AREAS NORTH OF I-96 SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 20S.

WARMEST HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY... IN THE LOWER 60S... SHOULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING ALONG THE LK MI SHORELINE FROM MKG SOUTHWARD
THANKS TO SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

WE ARE LOOKING AT TWO SYSTEMS IN THE LONG TERM...ONE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND ANOTHER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A GENERALLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE
PERIOD.

EASTER SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE QUITE A NICE DAY FOR SRN
AREAS...WHILE NRN AREAS WILL BE COOLER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
EVEN A STORM. WE WILL SEE A FRONT DROP DOWN INTO NRN MI BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. AREAS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE INCREASINGLY MORE SUNSHINE TO THE SOUTH
AND A BETTER SHOT AT BEING IN THE 70S.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MORE SO ON MON. MILD AIR WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA INTO MON. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
BRING A CHC OF RAIN. ANOTHER WAVE DIVING IN FROM THE NW WILL HELP TO
EVENTUALLY PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. WE SHOULD
SEE RAIN CHCS ENDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING.

WE WILL SEE DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MID-WEEK WITH NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING. A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH COMES
ONSHORE ACROSS CA OFF OF THE PACIFIC. WARMER AIR WITH A INCREASING
CHC OF RAIN WILL THEN DEVELOP ON THU. THE STRONG SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE PLAINS BY THU WILL BE PUMPING MUCH WARMER AND MOIST AIR IN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

ALL TAF SITES WILL START OUT VFR THIS EVENING AND THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BY 01Z. LATER THIS EVENING AN AREA FOR RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LARGELY OVERHEAD FROM AZO TO LAN JUST AFTER
06Z. THE RAIN AREA SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF MKG AND GRR. THE LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME
FRAME FOR THE I-94/I-69 TAF SITES. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE
MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

NUMEROUS AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WERE CANCELED TODAY BASED ON
UPDATED REPORTS FROM ROAD COMMISSIONS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS THAT
CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVING. FOR NEWAYGO...OSCEOLA...AND ISABELLA
COUNTIES THE AREA FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL WIDESPREAD
IMPROVEMENT IN ROAD CONDITIONS OCCURS DUE TO A RECESSION OF THE
FLOOD WATERS.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER CONTINUES WITH A
SLOW RECESSION FORECASTED. EVART WILL HOLD ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE CROTON WILL HOLD ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. AS SUCH...SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE PROPERTIES ALONG THE MUSKEGON
RIVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND UNFORTUNATELY. THE CROTON DAM
OPERATION CONTINUES TO REDUCE FLOWS DOWNSTREAM...LEADING TO A SLOW
AND STEADY DECLINE IN RIVER LEVELS FOR INTERESTS IN NEWAYGO AND
MUSKEGON COUNTIES. THE GOOD NEWS IS NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS IN
SIGHT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO THE RIVER RECESSION WILL CONTINUE.

THE PERE MARQUETTE AND CHIPPEWA RIVERS CONTINUE TO HOLD BETWEEN
MINOR AND MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WITH BOTH RIVERS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IMPACTS FROM FLOOD
WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THEN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...HOVING








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities