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000
FXUS63 KGRR 130456
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1156 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THIS EVENING WILL BRING SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN THE COLDEST WEEKEND OF THE WINTER. THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER
AREAS EAST OF US-131 WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING BUT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ILL CONTINUE ALONG LAKE SHORE TONIGHT. SATURDAY POLAR HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL END THE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTH
OF MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THAT WILL
BRING US THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
SEE LOW BELOW ZERO.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE COLD AIR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. A BIG WARM UP FOLLOWS THAT FOR FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

RADAR SHOWS MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FALLING
WEST OF US-131 ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. HEAVIEST SNOW IS OVER
ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES...RIGHT WHERE THE WARNING IS. THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR BARRY, KENT, NEWAYGO COUNTIES EXPIRED
EARLIER LEAVING HEADLINES ALONG THE LAKE SHORE PLUS KALAMAZOO AND
LAKE COUNTIES. WE/LL LEAVE THE REST OF THE HEADLINES AS IS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP WIND
CHILLS OUT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

I HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO ANY OF OUR HEADLINES AS OUR GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GREAT. WE WILL SEE THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND IT
IS FOR THAT REASON I WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. NEARLY EVERY
REPORTING STATION THAT HAS BEEN HIT BY THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS SEEN 1/4SM +SN WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS CROSS I-96/I-196 AROUND 6 PM AND I-94 AROUND 8 PM. ONCE
THIS PASSES THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL END NEAR AND EAST OF US-131.

MEANWHILE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...THEY TWO WILL HAVE THESE SNOW
SHOWER BUT FOR THOSE NEAR US-31 TO THE LAKE SHORE... IT IS ONLY
AFTER THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINS.
INVERSION HEIGHT RISE TO NEARLY 10000 FT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AND
THE DGZ IS STILL IN THE CLOUDS WITH CONSIDERABLE LIFT. ALSO
THETA-E DECREASES WITH HEIGHT TO 8000 FT AND THERE IS NEARLY 300
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. ALL THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW OVER A 1/4 INCH OF QPF
FROM SOUTH HAVEN SOUTH TONIGHT. GIVEN ALL OF THIS I HAVE TO
BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES OVERNIGHT IN THE WARNING
COUNTIES NEAR AND WEST OF US-31. THOSE CLOSE TO US-131 WILL SEE
VERY LITTLE AFTER 10 PM. THE ADVISORY COUNTIES NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE WILL LIKELY SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY THIS ALL SLOWLY QUIETS DOWN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA DECREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HENCE
THE SURFACE WIND. SINCE THE SUN IS GETTING STRONGER NOW AS IT IS
MID FEBRUARY... WE WILL SEE SURFACE HEATING CAUSE THE SNOW
SHOWERS TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS OF SATURDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH EAST OF US-31.

SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WE WILL SEE A
LAND BREEZE SET UP AND THAT WILL CLEAR THE SKY NEARLY TO THE LAKE
SHORE. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF WINTER.
WINDS WILL GO NEAR CALM AND EVEN THE WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A GREAT SET-UP FOR
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. I WENT 5 DEGREES BELOW MOS ACROSS THE CWA
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES IN FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM... IT IS A WARM
ADVECTION LIFT EVENT SO WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. I PUT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A LIGHT SNOW WITH MOST AREAS ONE TO TWO INCHES BY
SUNRISE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY LINGER TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE SOME COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

IT IS NOTED THAT A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE GULF COAST SYSTEM MONDAY WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY
AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. PCPN
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY WELL SE OF OUR AREA ACROSS OHIO AND
FURTHER EAST.

TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW WAA DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF PCPN FRIDAY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AND
ON SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS INLAND. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO CHANGES IN THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALES LOOK GOOD BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ICE IN
THE NEAR SHORE... FREEZING SPRAY IS ASSURED... AND WITH THOSE SORT
OF WINDS AND TEMPTERS THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IDEA LOOKS GREAT.
AGAIN... ALL OF THIS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

RIVER GAUGES THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS
OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE BUILD UP. IT IS ALSO EVIDENT THAT THE GRAND
RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP HAS A BIT MORE ICE FLOWING DOWNSTREAM THAN WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND UP
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WHEN WE FINALLY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LONG TERM FORECASTS SUGGEST WE MAY
EVEN SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

FLUCTUATIONS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY TO MAKE NOTE OF THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE EVENT
THAT THICKER ICE BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-050-056-072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM





000
FXUS63 KGRR 130456
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1156 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THIS EVENING WILL BRING SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN THE COLDEST WEEKEND OF THE WINTER. THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER
AREAS EAST OF US-131 WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING BUT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ILL CONTINUE ALONG LAKE SHORE TONIGHT. SATURDAY POLAR HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL END THE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTH
OF MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THAT WILL
BRING US THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
SEE LOW BELOW ZERO.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE COLD AIR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. A BIG WARM UP FOLLOWS THAT FOR FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

RADAR SHOWS MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FALLING
WEST OF US-131 ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. HEAVIEST SNOW IS OVER
ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES...RIGHT WHERE THE WARNING IS. THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR BARRY, KENT, NEWAYGO COUNTIES EXPIRED
EARLIER LEAVING HEADLINES ALONG THE LAKE SHORE PLUS KALAMAZOO AND
LAKE COUNTIES. WE/LL LEAVE THE REST OF THE HEADLINES AS IS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP WIND
CHILLS OUT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

I HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO ANY OF OUR HEADLINES AS OUR GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GREAT. WE WILL SEE THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND IT
IS FOR THAT REASON I WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. NEARLY EVERY
REPORTING STATION THAT HAS BEEN HIT BY THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS SEEN 1/4SM +SN WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS CROSS I-96/I-196 AROUND 6 PM AND I-94 AROUND 8 PM. ONCE
THIS PASSES THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL END NEAR AND EAST OF US-131.

MEANWHILE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...THEY TWO WILL HAVE THESE SNOW
SHOWER BUT FOR THOSE NEAR US-31 TO THE LAKE SHORE... IT IS ONLY
AFTER THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINS.
INVERSION HEIGHT RISE TO NEARLY 10000 FT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AND
THE DGZ IS STILL IN THE CLOUDS WITH CONSIDERABLE LIFT. ALSO
THETA-E DECREASES WITH HEIGHT TO 8000 FT AND THERE IS NEARLY 300
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. ALL THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW OVER A 1/4 INCH OF QPF
FROM SOUTH HAVEN SOUTH TONIGHT. GIVEN ALL OF THIS I HAVE TO
BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES OVERNIGHT IN THE WARNING
COUNTIES NEAR AND WEST OF US-31. THOSE CLOSE TO US-131 WILL SEE
VERY LITTLE AFTER 10 PM. THE ADVISORY COUNTIES NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE WILL LIKELY SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY THIS ALL SLOWLY QUIETS DOWN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA DECREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HENCE
THE SURFACE WIND. SINCE THE SUN IS GETTING STRONGER NOW AS IT IS
MID FEBRUARY... WE WILL SEE SURFACE HEATING CAUSE THE SNOW
SHOWERS TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS OF SATURDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH EAST OF US-31.

SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WE WILL SEE A
LAND BREEZE SET UP AND THAT WILL CLEAR THE SKY NEARLY TO THE LAKE
SHORE. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF WINTER.
WINDS WILL GO NEAR CALM AND EVEN THE WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A GREAT SET-UP FOR
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. I WENT 5 DEGREES BELOW MOS ACROSS THE CWA
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES IN FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM... IT IS A WARM
ADVECTION LIFT EVENT SO WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. I PUT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A LIGHT SNOW WITH MOST AREAS ONE TO TWO INCHES BY
SUNRISE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY LINGER TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE SOME COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

IT IS NOTED THAT A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE GULF COAST SYSTEM MONDAY WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY
AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. PCPN
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY WELL SE OF OUR AREA ACROSS OHIO AND
FURTHER EAST.

TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW WAA DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF PCPN FRIDAY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AND
ON SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS INLAND. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO CHANGES IN THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALES LOOK GOOD BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ICE IN
THE NEAR SHORE... FREEZING SPRAY IS ASSURED... AND WITH THOSE SORT
OF WINDS AND TEMPTERS THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IDEA LOOKS GREAT.
AGAIN... ALL OF THIS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

RIVER GAUGES THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS
OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE BUILD UP. IT IS ALSO EVIDENT THAT THE GRAND
RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP HAS A BIT MORE ICE FLOWING DOWNSTREAM THAN WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND UP
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WHEN WE FINALLY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LONG TERM FORECASTS SUGGEST WE MAY
EVEN SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

FLUCTUATIONS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY TO MAKE NOTE OF THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE EVENT
THAT THICKER ICE BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-050-056-072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM





000
FXUS63 KGRR 130456
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1156 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THIS EVENING WILL BRING SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN THE COLDEST WEEKEND OF THE WINTER. THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER
AREAS EAST OF US-131 WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING BUT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ILL CONTINUE ALONG LAKE SHORE TONIGHT. SATURDAY POLAR HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL END THE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTH
OF MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THAT WILL
BRING US THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
SEE LOW BELOW ZERO.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE COLD AIR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. A BIG WARM UP FOLLOWS THAT FOR FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

RADAR SHOWS MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FALLING
WEST OF US-131 ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. HEAVIEST SNOW IS OVER
ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES...RIGHT WHERE THE WARNING IS. THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR BARRY, KENT, NEWAYGO COUNTIES EXPIRED
EARLIER LEAVING HEADLINES ALONG THE LAKE SHORE PLUS KALAMAZOO AND
LAKE COUNTIES. WE/LL LEAVE THE REST OF THE HEADLINES AS IS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP WIND
CHILLS OUT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

I HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO ANY OF OUR HEADLINES AS OUR GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GREAT. WE WILL SEE THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND IT
IS FOR THAT REASON I WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. NEARLY EVERY
REPORTING STATION THAT HAS BEEN HIT BY THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS SEEN 1/4SM +SN WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS CROSS I-96/I-196 AROUND 6 PM AND I-94 AROUND 8 PM. ONCE
THIS PASSES THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL END NEAR AND EAST OF US-131.

MEANWHILE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...THEY TWO WILL HAVE THESE SNOW
SHOWER BUT FOR THOSE NEAR US-31 TO THE LAKE SHORE... IT IS ONLY
AFTER THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINS.
INVERSION HEIGHT RISE TO NEARLY 10000 FT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AND
THE DGZ IS STILL IN THE CLOUDS WITH CONSIDERABLE LIFT. ALSO
THETA-E DECREASES WITH HEIGHT TO 8000 FT AND THERE IS NEARLY 300
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. ALL THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW OVER A 1/4 INCH OF QPF
FROM SOUTH HAVEN SOUTH TONIGHT. GIVEN ALL OF THIS I HAVE TO
BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES OVERNIGHT IN THE WARNING
COUNTIES NEAR AND WEST OF US-31. THOSE CLOSE TO US-131 WILL SEE
VERY LITTLE AFTER 10 PM. THE ADVISORY COUNTIES NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE WILL LIKELY SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY THIS ALL SLOWLY QUIETS DOWN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA DECREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HENCE
THE SURFACE WIND. SINCE THE SUN IS GETTING STRONGER NOW AS IT IS
MID FEBRUARY... WE WILL SEE SURFACE HEATING CAUSE THE SNOW
SHOWERS TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS OF SATURDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH EAST OF US-31.

SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WE WILL SEE A
LAND BREEZE SET UP AND THAT WILL CLEAR THE SKY NEARLY TO THE LAKE
SHORE. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF WINTER.
WINDS WILL GO NEAR CALM AND EVEN THE WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A GREAT SET-UP FOR
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. I WENT 5 DEGREES BELOW MOS ACROSS THE CWA
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES IN FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM... IT IS A WARM
ADVECTION LIFT EVENT SO WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. I PUT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A LIGHT SNOW WITH MOST AREAS ONE TO TWO INCHES BY
SUNRISE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY LINGER TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE SOME COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

IT IS NOTED THAT A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE GULF COAST SYSTEM MONDAY WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY
AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. PCPN
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY WELL SE OF OUR AREA ACROSS OHIO AND
FURTHER EAST.

TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW WAA DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF PCPN FRIDAY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AND
ON SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS INLAND. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO CHANGES IN THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALES LOOK GOOD BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ICE IN
THE NEAR SHORE... FREEZING SPRAY IS ASSURED... AND WITH THOSE SORT
OF WINDS AND TEMPTERS THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IDEA LOOKS GREAT.
AGAIN... ALL OF THIS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

RIVER GAUGES THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS
OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE BUILD UP. IT IS ALSO EVIDENT THAT THE GRAND
RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP HAS A BIT MORE ICE FLOWING DOWNSTREAM THAN WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND UP
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WHEN WE FINALLY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LONG TERM FORECASTS SUGGEST WE MAY
EVEN SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

FLUCTUATIONS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY TO MAKE NOTE OF THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE EVENT
THAT THICKER ICE BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-050-056-072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KGRR 130222
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
922 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THIS EVENING WILL BRING SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN THE COLDEST WEEKEND OF THE WINTER. THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER
AREAS EAST OF US-131 WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING BUT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ILL CONTINUE ALONG LAKE SHORE TONIGHT. SATURDAY POLAR HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL END THE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTH
OF MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THAT WILL
BRING US THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
SEE LOW BELOW ZERO.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE COLD AIR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. A BIG WARM UP FOLLOWS THAT FOR FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

RADAR SHOWS MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FALLING
WEST OF US-131 ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. HEAVIEST SNOW IS OVER
ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES...RIGHT WHERE THE WARNING IS. THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR BARRY, KENT, NEWAYGO COUNTIES EXPIRED
EARLIER LEAVING HEADLINGS ALING THE LAKE SHORE PLUS KALAMAZOO AND
LAKE COUNTIES. WE/LL LEAVE THE REST OF THE HEADLINES AS IS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP WIND
CHILLS OUT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

I HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO ANY OF OUR HEADLINES AS OUR GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GREAT. WE WILL SEE THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND IT
IS FOR THAT REASON I WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. NEARLY EVERY
REPORTING STATION THAT HAS BEEN HIT BY THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS SEEN 1/4SM +SN WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS CROSS I-96/I-196 AROUND 6 PM AND I-94 AROUND 8 PM. ONCE
THIS PASSES THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL END NEAR AND EAST OF US-131.

MEANWHILE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...THEY TWO WILL HAVE THESE SNOW
SHOWER BUT FOR THOSE NEAR US-31 TO THE LAKE SHORE... IT IS ONLY
AFTER THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINS.
INVERSION HEIGHT RISE TO NEARLY 10000 FT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AND
THE DGZ IS STILL IN THE CLOUDS WITH CONSIDERABLE LIFT. ALSO
THETA-E DECREASES WITH HEIGHT TO 8000 FT AND THERE IS NEARLY 300
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. ALL THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW OVER A 1/4 INCH OF QPF
FROM SOUTH HAVEN SOUTH TONIGHT. GIVEN ALL OF THIS I HAVE TO
BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES OVERNIGHT IN THE WARNING
COUNTIES NEAR AND WEST OF US-31. THOSE CLOSE TO US-131 WILL SEE
VERY LITTLE AFTER 10 PM. THE ADVISORY COUNTIES NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE WILL LIKELY SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY THIS ALL SLOWLY QUIETS DOWN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA DECREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HENCE
THE SURFACE WIND. SINCE THE SUN IS GETTING STRONGER NOW AS IT IS
MID FEBRUARY... WE WILL SEE SURFACE HEATING CAUSE THE SNOW
SHOWERS TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS OF SATURDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH EAST OF US-31.

SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WE WILL SEE A
LAND BREEZE SET UP AND THAT WILL CLEAR THE SKY NEARLY TO THE LAKE
SHORE. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF WINTER.
WINDS WILL GO NEAR CALM AND EVEN THE WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A GREAT SET-UP FOR
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. I WENT 5 DEGREES BELOW MOS ACROSS THE CWA
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES IN FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM... IT IS A WARM
ADVECTION LIFT EVENT SO WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. I PUT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A LIGHT SNOW WITH MOST AREAS ONE TO TWO INCHES BY
SUNRISE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY LINGER TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE SOME COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

IT IS NOTED THAT A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE GULF COAST SYSTEM MONDAY WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY
AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. PCPN
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY WELL SE OF OUR AREA ACROSS OHIO AND
FURTHER EAST.

TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW WAA DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF PCPN FRIDAY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING ISOLATED IFR AND LIFR TO ALL OF SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN THE MOSTLY VFR AND MVFR
INLAND AND IFR NEAR THE LAKE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO CHANGES IN THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALES LOOK GOOD BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ICE IN
THE NEAR SHORE... FREEZING SPRAY IS ASSURED... AND WITH THOSE SORT
OF WINDS AND TEMPTERS THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IDEA LOOKS GREAT.
AGAIN... ALL OF THIS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

RIVER GAUGES THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS
OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE BUILD UP. IT IS ALSO EVIDENT THAT THE GRAND
RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP HAS A BIT MORE ICE FLOWING DOWNSTREAM THAN WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND UP
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WHEN WE FINALLY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LONG TERM FORECASTS SUGGEST WE MAY
EVEN SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

FLUCTUATIONS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY TO MAKE NOTE OF THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE EVENT
THAT THICKER ICE BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-050-056-072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM





000
FXUS63 KGRR 122355
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
655 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THIS EVENING WILL BRING SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN THE COLDEST WEEKEND OF THE WINTER. THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER
AREAS EAST OF US-131 WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING BUT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ILL CONTINUE ALONG LAKE SHORE TONIGHT. SATURDAY POLAR HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL END THE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTH
OF MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THAT WILL
BRING US THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
SEE LOW BELOW ZERO.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE COLD AIR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. A BIG WARM UP FOLLOWS THAT FOR FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

I HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO ANY OF OUR HEADLINES AS OUR GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GREAT. WE WILL SEE THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND IT
IS FOR THAT REASON I WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. NEARLY EVERY
REPORTING STATION THAT HAS BEEN HIT BY THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS SEEN 1/4SM +SN WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS CROSS I-96/I-196 AROUND 6 PM AND I-94 AROUND 8 PM. ONCE
THIS PASSES THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL END NEAR AND EAST OF US-131.

MEANWHILE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...THEY TWO WILL HAVE THESE SNOW
SHOWER BUT FOR THOSE NEAR US-31 TO THE LAKE SHORE... IT IS ONLY
AFTER THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINS.
INVERSION HEIGHT RISE TO NEARLY 10000 FT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AND
THE DGZ IS STILL IN THE CLOUDS WITH CONSIDERABLE LIFT. ALSO
THETA-E DECREASES WITH HEIGHT TO 8000 FT AND THERE IS NEARLY 300
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. ALL THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW OVER A 1/4 INCH OF QPF
FROM SOUTH HAVEN SOUTH TONIGHT. GIVEN ALL OF THIS I HAVE TO
BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES OVERNIGHT IN THE WARNING
COUNTIES NEAR AND WEST OF US-31. THOSE CLOSE TO US-131 WILL SEE
VERY LITTLE AFTER 10 PM. THE ADVISORY COUNTIES NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE WILL LIKELY SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY THIS ALL SLOWLY QUIETS DOWN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA DECREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HENCE
THE SURFACE WIND. SINCE THE SUN IS GETTING STRONGER NOW AS IT IS
MID FEBRUARY... WE WILL SEE SURFACE HEATING CAUSE THE SNOW
SHOWERS TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS OF SATURDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH EAST OF US-31.

SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WE WILL SEE A
LAND BREEZE SET UP AND THAT WILL CLEAR THE SKY NEARLY TO THE LAKE
SHORE. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF WINTER.
WINDS WILL GO NEAR CALM AND EVEN THE WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A GREAT SET-UP FOR
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. I WENT 5 DEGREES BELOW MOS ACROSS THE CWA
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES IN FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM... IT IS A WARM
ADVECTION LIFT EVENT SO WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. I PUT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A LIGHT SNOW WITH MOST AREAS ONE TO TWO INCHES BY
SUNRISE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY LINGER TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE SOME COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

IT IS NOTED THAT A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE GULF COAST SYSTEM MONDAY WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY
AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. PCPN
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY WELL SE OF OUR AREA ACROSS OHIO AND
FURTHER EAST.

TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW WAA DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF PCPN FRIDAY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING ISOLATED IFR AND LIFR TO ALL OF SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN THE MOSTLY VFR AND MVFR
INLAND AND IFR NEAR THE LAKE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO CHANGES IN THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALES LOOK GOOD BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ICE IN
THE NEAR SHORE... FREEZING SPRAY IS ASSURED... AND WITH THOSE SORT
OF WINDS AND TEMPTERS THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IDEA LOOKS GREAT.
AGAIN... ALL OF THIS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

RIVER GAUGES THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS
OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE BUILD UP. IT IS ALSO EVIDENT THAT THE GRAND
RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP HAS A BIT MORE ICE FLOWING DOWNSTREAM THAN WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND UP
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WHEN WE FINALLY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LONG TERM FORECASTS SUGGEST WE MAY
EVEN SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

FLUCTUATIONS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY TO MAKE NOTE OF THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE EVENT
THAT THICKER ICE BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ044-
     057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-050-056-072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM





000
FXUS63 KGRR 122355
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
655 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THIS EVENING WILL BRING SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN THE COLDEST WEEKEND OF THE WINTER. THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER
AREAS EAST OF US-131 WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING BUT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ILL CONTINUE ALONG LAKE SHORE TONIGHT. SATURDAY POLAR HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL END THE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTH
OF MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THAT WILL
BRING US THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
SEE LOW BELOW ZERO.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE COLD AIR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. A BIG WARM UP FOLLOWS THAT FOR FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

I HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO ANY OF OUR HEADLINES AS OUR GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GREAT. WE WILL SEE THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND IT
IS FOR THAT REASON I WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. NEARLY EVERY
REPORTING STATION THAT HAS BEEN HIT BY THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS SEEN 1/4SM +SN WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS CROSS I-96/I-196 AROUND 6 PM AND I-94 AROUND 8 PM. ONCE
THIS PASSES THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL END NEAR AND EAST OF US-131.

MEANWHILE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...THEY TWO WILL HAVE THESE SNOW
SHOWER BUT FOR THOSE NEAR US-31 TO THE LAKE SHORE... IT IS ONLY
AFTER THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINS.
INVERSION HEIGHT RISE TO NEARLY 10000 FT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AND
THE DGZ IS STILL IN THE CLOUDS WITH CONSIDERABLE LIFT. ALSO
THETA-E DECREASES WITH HEIGHT TO 8000 FT AND THERE IS NEARLY 300
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. ALL THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW OVER A 1/4 INCH OF QPF
FROM SOUTH HAVEN SOUTH TONIGHT. GIVEN ALL OF THIS I HAVE TO
BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES OVERNIGHT IN THE WARNING
COUNTIES NEAR AND WEST OF US-31. THOSE CLOSE TO US-131 WILL SEE
VERY LITTLE AFTER 10 PM. THE ADVISORY COUNTIES NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE WILL LIKELY SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY THIS ALL SLOWLY QUIETS DOWN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA DECREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HENCE
THE SURFACE WIND. SINCE THE SUN IS GETTING STRONGER NOW AS IT IS
MID FEBRUARY... WE WILL SEE SURFACE HEATING CAUSE THE SNOW
SHOWERS TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS OF SATURDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH EAST OF US-31.

SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WE WILL SEE A
LAND BREEZE SET UP AND THAT WILL CLEAR THE SKY NEARLY TO THE LAKE
SHORE. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF WINTER.
WINDS WILL GO NEAR CALM AND EVEN THE WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A GREAT SET-UP FOR
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. I WENT 5 DEGREES BELOW MOS ACROSS THE CWA
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES IN FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM... IT IS A WARM
ADVECTION LIFT EVENT SO WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. I PUT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A LIGHT SNOW WITH MOST AREAS ONE TO TWO INCHES BY
SUNRISE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY LINGER TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE SOME COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

IT IS NOTED THAT A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE GULF COAST SYSTEM MONDAY WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY
AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. PCPN
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY WELL SE OF OUR AREA ACROSS OHIO AND
FURTHER EAST.

TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW WAA DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF PCPN FRIDAY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING ISOLATED IFR AND LIFR TO ALL OF SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN THE MOSTLY VFR AND MVFR
INLAND AND IFR NEAR THE LAKE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO CHANGES IN THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALES LOOK GOOD BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ICE IN
THE NEAR SHORE... FREEZING SPRAY IS ASSURED... AND WITH THOSE SORT
OF WINDS AND TEMPTERS THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IDEA LOOKS GREAT.
AGAIN... ALL OF THIS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

RIVER GAUGES THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS
OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE BUILD UP. IT IS ALSO EVIDENT THAT THE GRAND
RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP HAS A BIT MORE ICE FLOWING DOWNSTREAM THAN WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND UP
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WHEN WE FINALLY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LONG TERM FORECASTS SUGGEST WE MAY
EVEN SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

FLUCTUATIONS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY TO MAKE NOTE OF THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE EVENT
THAT THICKER ICE BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ044-
     057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-050-056-072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM





000
FXUS63 KGRR 122005
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
305 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THIS EVENING WILL BRING SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN THE COLDEST WEEKEND OF THE WINTER. THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER
AREAS EAST OF US-131 WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING BUT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ILL CONTINUE ALONG LAKE SHORE TONIGHT. SATURDAY POLAR HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL END THE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TH EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTH OF
MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THAT WILL
BRING US THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
SEE LOW BELOW ZERO.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE COLD AIR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. A BIG WARM UP FOLLOWS THAT FOR FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

I HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO ANY OF OUR HEADLINES AS OUR GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GREAT. WE WILL SEE THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND IT
IS FOR THAT REASON I WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. NEARLY EVERY
REPORTING STATION THAT HAS BEEN HIT BY THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS SEEN 1/4SM +SN WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS CROSS I-96/I-196 AROUND 6 PM AND I-94 AROUND 8 PM. ONCE
THIS PASSES THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL END NEAR AND EAST OF US-131.

MEANWHILE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...THEY TWO WILL HAVE THESE SNOW
SHOWER BUT FOR THOSE NEAR US-31 TO THE LAKE SHORE... IT IS ONLY
AFTER THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINS.
INVERSION HEIGHT RISE TO NEARLY 10000 FT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AND
THE DGZ IS STILL IN THE CLOUDS WITH CONSIDERABLE LIFT. ALSO
THETA-E DECREASES WITH HEIGHT TO 8000 FT AND THERE IS NEARLY 300
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. ALL THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW OVER A 1/4 INCH OF QPF
FROM SOUTH HAVEN SOUTH TONIGHT. GIVEN ALL OF THIS I HAVE TO
BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES OVERNIGHT IN THE WARNING
COUNTIES NEAR AND WEST OF US-31. THOSE CLOSE TO US-131 WILL SEE
VERY LITTLE AFTER 10 PM. THE ADVISORY COUNTIES NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE WILL LIKELY SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY THIS ALL SLOWLY QUIETS DOWN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA DECREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HENCE
THE SURFACE WIND. SINCE THE SUN IS GETTING STRONGER NOW AS IT IS
MID FEBRUARY... WE WILL SEE SURFACE HEATING CAUSE THE SNOW
SHOWERS TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS OF SATURDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH EAST OF US-31.

SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WE WILL SEE A
LAND BREEZE SET UP AND THAT WILL CLEAR THE SKY NEARLY TO THE LAKE
SHORE. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF WINTER.
WINDS WILL GO NEAR CALM AND EVEN THE WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A GREAT SET-UP FOR
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. I WENT 5 DEGREES BELOW MOS ACROSS THE CWA
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES IN FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM... IT IS A WARM
ADVECTION LIFT EVENT SO WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. I PUT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A LIGHT SNOW WITH MOST AREAS ONE TO TWO INCHES BY
SUNRISE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI HEB 12 2016

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY LINGER TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE SOME COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

IT IS NOTED THAT A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE GULF COAST SYSTEM MONDAY WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY
AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. PCPN
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY WELL SE OF OUR AREA ACROSS OHIO AND
FURTHER EAST.

TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW WAA DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF PCPN FRIDAY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

A MIX OF MVFR... IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISBYS IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF PREDOMINANTLY LIFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

NW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT LATE TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
KMKG AND PERHAPS THE KAZO TERMINALS WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES
ANTICIPATED FURTHER INLAND.

CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMKG AND KAZO WHERE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER DUE TO NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. ANOTHER NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WITH A CONNECTION
TO LAKE SUPERIOR TOMORROW WILL STAY NORTH OF KGRR/KLAN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO CHANGES IN THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALES LOOK GOOD BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ICE IN
THE NEAR SHORE... FREEZING SPRAY IS ASSURED... AND WITH THOSE SORT
OF WINDS AND TEMPTERS THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IDEA LOOKS GREAT.
AGAIN... ALL OF THIS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

RIVER GAUGES THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS
OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE BUILD UP. IT IS ALSO EVIDENT THAT THE GRAND
RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP HAS A BIT MORE ICE FLOWING DOWNSTREAM THAN WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND UP
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WHEN WE FINALLY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LONG TERM FORECASTS SUGGEST WE MAY
EVEN SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

FLUCTUATIONS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY TO MAKE NOTE OF THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE EVENT
THAT THICKER ICE BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ044-
     057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-050-056-072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM





000
FXUS63 KGRR 122000
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THIS EVENING WILL BRING SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN THE COLDEST WEEKEND OF THE WINTER. THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER
AREAS EAST OF US-131 WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING BUT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ILL CONTINUE ALONG LAKE SHORE TONIGHT. SATURDAY POLAR HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL END THE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TH EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTH OF
MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THAT WILL
BRING US THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
SEE LOW BELOW ZERO.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE COLD AIR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. A BIG WARM UP FOLLOWS THAT FOR FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

I HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO ANY OF OUR HEADLINES AS OUR GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GREAT. WE WILL SEE THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND IT
IS FOR THAT REASON I WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. NEARLY EVERY
REPORTING STATION THAT HAS BEEN HIT BY THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS SEEN 1/4SM +SN WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODLES CONITUNE TO BRING THIS BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS CROSS I-96/I-196 AROUND 6 PM AND I-94 AROUND 8 PM. ONCE
THIS PASSES THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL END NEAR AND EAST OF US-131.

MEANWHILE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...THEY TWO WILL HAVE THESE SNOW
SHOWER BUT FOR THOSE NEAR US-31 TO THE LAKE SHORE... IT IS ONLY
AFTER THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINS.
INVESION HEIGHT RISE TO NEARLY 10000 FT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AND
THE DGZ IS STILL IN THE CLOUDS WITH CONSIDEDABLE LIFT. ALSO
THETA-E DECREASES WITH HEIGHT TO 8000 FT AND THERE IS NEARLY 300
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. ALL THE HIGH RESOULTION MODELS SHOW OVER A 1/4 INCH OF QPF
FROM SOUTH HAVEN SOUTH TONIGHT. GIVEN ALL OF THIS I HAVE TO
BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES OVERNIGHT IN THE WARNING
COUNTIES NEAR AND WEST OF US-31. THOSE CLOSE TO US-131 WILL SEE
VERY LITTLE AFTER 10 PM. THE ADVIOSRY COUNTIES NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
WILL LIKELY SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY THIS ALL SLOWLY QUIETS DOWN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA DECREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HENCE
THE SURFACE WIND. SINCE THE SUN IS GETTING STRONGER NOW AS IT IS
MID FEBRUARY... WE WILL SEE SURFACE HEATING CAUSE THE SNOW SHOWERS
TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS OF SATURDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSLTY LESS THAN A HALF INCH EAST OF US-31.

SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WE WILL SEE A
LAND BREEZE SET UP AND THAT WILL CLEAR THE SKY NEARLY TO THE LAKE
SHORE. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST NIGTH OF WINTER.
WINDS WILL GO NEAR CALM AND EVEN THE WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A GREAT SET-UP FOR
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. I WENT 5 DEGREES BELOW MOS ACROSS THE CWA
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES IN FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM... IT IS A WARM
ADVECTION LIFT EVENT SO WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. I PUT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A LIGHT SNOW WITH MOST AREAS ONE TO TWO INCHES BY
SUNRISE MONDAY.



.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY LINGER TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE SOME COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

IT IS NOTED THAT A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE GULF COAST SYSTEM MONDAY WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY
AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. PCPN WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY WELL SE OF OUR AREA ACROSS OHIO AND FURTHER
EAST.

TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW WAA DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF PCPN FRIDAY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NORTH
OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

A MIX OF MVFR... IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISBYS IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF PREDOMINANTLY LIFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

NW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT LATE TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
KMKG AND PERHAPS THE KAZO TERMINALS WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES
ANTICIPATED FURTHER INLAND.

CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMKG AND KAZO WHERE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER DUE TO NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. ANOTHER NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WITH A CONNECTION
TO LAKE SUPERIOR TOMORROW WILL STAY NORTH OF KGRR/KLAN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO CHANGES IN THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALES LOOK GOOD BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ICE IN
THE NEAR SHORE... FREEZING SPRAY IS ASSURED... AND WITH THOSE SORT
OF WINDS AND TEMPATURES THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IDEA LOOKS GREAT.
AGAIN... ALL OF THIS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND
CONTINUES AT MAPLE RAPIDS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP THE
ADVISORY AT THAT LOCATION.

THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS ON THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP SHOW
SMALL...THIN PIECES OF ICE FLOWING IN THE RIVER. A FEW RIVER
GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GET COLDER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE LATE IN THE WINTER
SEASON AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT ICE DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LONG PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ASIDE FROM ANY LOCAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THAT
OCCURS...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. EVEN THIS WILL NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RIVER FLUCTUATION DUE TO ICE IN THE EVENT THAT THICK ICE DEVELOPS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ044-
     057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-050-056-072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM




000
FXUS63 KGRR 122000
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THIS EVENING WILL BRING SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN THE COLDEST WEEKEND OF THE WINTER. THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER
AREAS EAST OF US-131 WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING BUT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ILL CONTINUE ALONG LAKE SHORE TONIGHT. SATURDAY POLAR HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL END THE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TH EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTH OF
MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THAT WILL
BRING US THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
SEE LOW BELOW ZERO.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE COLD AIR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. A BIG WARM UP FOLLOWS THAT FOR FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

I HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO ANY OF OUR HEADLINES AS OUR GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GREAT. WE WILL SEE THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND IT
IS FOR THAT REASON I WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. NEARLY EVERY
REPORTING STATION THAT HAS BEEN HIT BY THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS SEEN 1/4SM +SN WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODLES CONITUNE TO BRING THIS BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS CROSS I-96/I-196 AROUND 6 PM AND I-94 AROUND 8 PM. ONCE
THIS PASSES THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL END NEAR AND EAST OF US-131.

MEANWHILE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...THEY TWO WILL HAVE THESE SNOW
SHOWER BUT FOR THOSE NEAR US-31 TO THE LAKE SHORE... IT IS ONLY
AFTER THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINS.
INVESION HEIGHT RISE TO NEARLY 10000 FT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AND
THE DGZ IS STILL IN THE CLOUDS WITH CONSIDEDABLE LIFT. ALSO
THETA-E DECREASES WITH HEIGHT TO 8000 FT AND THERE IS NEARLY 300
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. ALL THE HIGH RESOULTION MODELS SHOW OVER A 1/4 INCH OF QPF
FROM SOUTH HAVEN SOUTH TONIGHT. GIVEN ALL OF THIS I HAVE TO
BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES OVERNIGHT IN THE WARNING
COUNTIES NEAR AND WEST OF US-31. THOSE CLOSE TO US-131 WILL SEE
VERY LITTLE AFTER 10 PM. THE ADVIOSRY COUNTIES NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
WILL LIKELY SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY THIS ALL SLOWLY QUIETS DOWN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA DECREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HENCE
THE SURFACE WIND. SINCE THE SUN IS GETTING STRONGER NOW AS IT IS
MID FEBRUARY... WE WILL SEE SURFACE HEATING CAUSE THE SNOW SHOWERS
TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS OF SATURDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSLTY LESS THAN A HALF INCH EAST OF US-31.

SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WE WILL SEE A
LAND BREEZE SET UP AND THAT WILL CLEAR THE SKY NEARLY TO THE LAKE
SHORE. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST NIGTH OF WINTER.
WINDS WILL GO NEAR CALM AND EVEN THE WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A GREAT SET-UP FOR
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. I WENT 5 DEGREES BELOW MOS ACROSS THE CWA
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES IN FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM... IT IS A WARM
ADVECTION LIFT EVENT SO WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. I PUT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A LIGHT SNOW WITH MOST AREAS ONE TO TWO INCHES BY
SUNRISE MONDAY.



.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY LINGER TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE SOME COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

IT IS NOTED THAT A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE GULF COAST SYSTEM MONDAY WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY
AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. PCPN WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY WELL SE OF OUR AREA ACROSS OHIO AND FURTHER
EAST.

TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW WAA DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF PCPN FRIDAY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NORTH
OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

A MIX OF MVFR... IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISBYS IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF PREDOMINANTLY LIFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

NW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT LATE TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
KMKG AND PERHAPS THE KAZO TERMINALS WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES
ANTICIPATED FURTHER INLAND.

CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMKG AND KAZO WHERE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER DUE TO NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. ANOTHER NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WITH A CONNECTION
TO LAKE SUPERIOR TOMORROW WILL STAY NORTH OF KGRR/KLAN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO CHANGES IN THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALES LOOK GOOD BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ICE IN
THE NEAR SHORE... FREEZING SPRAY IS ASSURED... AND WITH THOSE SORT
OF WINDS AND TEMPATURES THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IDEA LOOKS GREAT.
AGAIN... ALL OF THIS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND
CONTINUES AT MAPLE RAPIDS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP THE
ADVISORY AT THAT LOCATION.

THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS ON THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP SHOW
SMALL...THIN PIECES OF ICE FLOWING IN THE RIVER. A FEW RIVER
GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GET COLDER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE LATE IN THE WINTER
SEASON AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT ICE DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LONG PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ASIDE FROM ANY LOCAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THAT
OCCURS...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. EVEN THIS WILL NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RIVER FLUCTUATION DUE TO ICE IN THE EVENT THAT THICK ICE DEVELOPS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ044-
     057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-050-056-072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM





000
FXUS63 KGRR 121614
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1114 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE UP AND WILL MOVE DOWN THE
LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. A BAND OF SHOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE LAKE SHORE SOUTH OF HOLLAND.

VERY COLD AIR RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER AIR IN THE 30S ARRIVES MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR A BAND OF SNOW SQUALLS FORECAST BY NEARLY
ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TO TRACK SOUTH...JUST AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT. CURRENTLY WE CAN SEE THIS BAND ON OUR MRM RADAR
PRODUCT WHICH AT 1045 AM...WAS JUST CROSSING THE BIG MAC BRIDGE.
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT AND AS THIS SQUALL MOVES THROUGH YOUR AREA EXPECT
ABOUT 15 TO 30 MINUTES OF HEAVY SNOW...WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH AND
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. THIS WILL REACH THE INTERSTATE 96 AREA
BETWEEN 530 PM AND 630 PM. IT WILL THEN REACH THE I-94 AREA
BETWEEN 8 PM AND 9 PM. I WOULD NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF
SNOW FROM THIS BUT THE LOW VISIBILITIES...TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 35 MPH WILL MAKE THIS DANGEROUS TO
BE OUTSIDE AT THAT TIME.

OTHEWISE THE OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WE WILL SEE SNOW
CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT BUT
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 7 PM WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 1 TO 2
INCH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE GOING FORECAST IS STILL MAINLY ON TRACK AND THE HEADLINES ARE
UNCHANGED. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO BACK OFF ON ACCUMS
INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SFC CHART SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT STRETCHING WEST ACROSS THE
UP. THIS FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. LATEST
HRRR SHOWS A BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG I-96
BY 9 AM OR SO AND THEN MOVING SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE PCPN
FROM MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DEVELOP. H8 TEMPS
FALL FROM -18C AROUND 18Z TO -26C BY 06Z TONIGHT. INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKE WILL BE EXTREME BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED A BIT. WITH
THAT IN MIND WE BACKED OFF ACCUMS A BIT ESPECIALLY EAST OF US-131.
STILL THINK THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL SOUTH OF HOLLAND ALONG THE
LAKE SHORE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL BELOW 0
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE BELOW 0 MUCH OF SATURDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
ONLY CLIMB TO THE MID TEENS. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS BELOW 0 IN MANY
LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND AS SKIES WILL CLEAR.

THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL SPREAD SNOW TOWARD THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BUT MUCH OF IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LONG TERM PERIOD STILL LOOKS FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL BY FEBRUARY
STANDARDS. THE FLOW IS ZONAL IN NATURE WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. THERE IS A SURGE OF COLDER
AIR MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH IS IT NOT TERRIBLY COLD (850MB TEMPS MINUS
MID TEENS C). OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY LOCKED IN ON AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...MORE OF
A WEAK TROUGH. HAVE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...30-50
PCT. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS...INCH OR LESS BUT NOT MUCH MORE
THAN THAT.

BEYOND THAT...AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PRIOR AFD/S...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRYING TO PHASE IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PHASING SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD
OCCURRING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A STRONG LOW FORMING IN NEW
ENGLAND. THE AFFECTS ON OUR AREA SHOULD BE LIMITED. HAVE SOME SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY-THURSDAY ON THE ORDER
OF 20-30 PCT. THE COLD AIR THAT IS TUGGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH MID WEEK IS DUE TO THE WRAPPED UP LOW ON THE EAST COAST. IT
APPEARS THERE IS A WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT IN CHECK THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

A MIX OF MVFR... IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISBYS IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF PREDOMINANTLY LIFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

NW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT LATE TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
KMKG AND PERHAPS THE KAZO TERMINALS WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES
ANTICIPATED FURTHER INLAND.

CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMKG AND KAZO WHERE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER DUE TO NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. ANOTHER NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WITH A CONNECTION
TO LAKE SUPERIOR TOMORROW WILL STAY NORTH OF KGRR/KLAN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. GALES TO 40 KNOTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR WILL
ALSO RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND
CONTINUES AT MAPLE RAPIDS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP THE
ADVISORY AT THAT LOCATION.

THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS ON THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP SHOW
SMALL...THIN PIECES OF ICE FLOWING IN THE RIVER. A FEW RIVER
GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GET COLDER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE LATE IN THE WINTER
SEASON AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT ICE DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LONG PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ASIDE FROM ANY LOCAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THAT
OCCURS...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. EVEN THIS WILL NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RIVER FLUCTUATION DUE TO ICE IN THE EVENT THAT THICK ICE DEVELOPS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ044-
     057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-050-056-072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04





000
FXUS63 KGRR 121614
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1114 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE UP AND WILL MOVE DOWN THE
LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. A BAND OF SHOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE LAKE SHORE SOUTH OF HOLLAND.

VERY COLD AIR RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER AIR IN THE 30S ARRIVES MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR A BAND OF SNOW SQUALLS FORECAST BY NEARLY
ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TO TRACK SOUTH...JUST AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT. CURRENTLY WE CAN SEE THIS BAND ON OUR MRM RADAR
PRODUCT WHICH AT 1045 AM...WAS JUST CROSSING THE BIG MAC BRIDGE.
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT AND AS THIS SQUALL MOVES THROUGH YOUR AREA EXPECT
ABOUT 15 TO 30 MINUTES OF HEAVY SNOW...WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH AND
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. THIS WILL REACH THE INTERSTATE 96 AREA
BETWEEN 530 PM AND 630 PM. IT WILL THEN REACH THE I-94 AREA
BETWEEN 8 PM AND 9 PM. I WOULD NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF
SNOW FROM THIS BUT THE LOW VISIBILITIES...TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 35 MPH WILL MAKE THIS DANGEROUS TO
BE OUTSIDE AT THAT TIME.

OTHEWISE THE OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WE WILL SEE SNOW
CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT BUT
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 7 PM WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 1 TO 2
INCH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE GOING FORECAST IS STILL MAINLY ON TRACK AND THE HEADLINES ARE
UNCHANGED. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO BACK OFF ON ACCUMS
INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SFC CHART SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT STRETCHING WEST ACROSS THE
UP. THIS FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. LATEST
HRRR SHOWS A BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG I-96
BY 9 AM OR SO AND THEN MOVING SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE PCPN
FROM MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DEVELOP. H8 TEMPS
FALL FROM -18C AROUND 18Z TO -26C BY 06Z TONIGHT. INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKE WILL BE EXTREME BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED A BIT. WITH
THAT IN MIND WE BACKED OFF ACCUMS A BIT ESPECIALLY EAST OF US-131.
STILL THINK THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL SOUTH OF HOLLAND ALONG THE
LAKE SHORE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL BELOW 0
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE BELOW 0 MUCH OF SATURDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
ONLY CLIMB TO THE MID TEENS. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS BELOW 0 IN MANY
LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND AS SKIES WILL CLEAR.

THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL SPREAD SNOW TOWARD THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BUT MUCH OF IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LONG TERM PERIOD STILL LOOKS FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL BY FEBRUARY
STANDARDS. THE FLOW IS ZONAL IN NATURE WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. THERE IS A SURGE OF COLDER
AIR MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH IS IT NOT TERRIBLY COLD (850MB TEMPS MINUS
MID TEENS C). OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY LOCKED IN ON AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...MORE OF
A WEAK TROUGH. HAVE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...30-50
PCT. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS...INCH OR LESS BUT NOT MUCH MORE
THAN THAT.

BEYOND THAT...AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PRIOR AFD/S...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRYING TO PHASE IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PHASING SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD
OCCURRING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A STRONG LOW FORMING IN NEW
ENGLAND. THE AFFECTS ON OUR AREA SHOULD BE LIMITED. HAVE SOME SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY-THURSDAY ON THE ORDER
OF 20-30 PCT. THE COLD AIR THAT IS TUGGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH MID WEEK IS DUE TO THE WRAPPED UP LOW ON THE EAST COAST. IT
APPEARS THERE IS A WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT IN CHECK THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

A MIX OF MVFR... IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISBYS IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF PREDOMINANTLY LIFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

NW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT LATE TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
KMKG AND PERHAPS THE KAZO TERMINALS WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES
ANTICIPATED FURTHER INLAND.

CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMKG AND KAZO WHERE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER DUE TO NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. ANOTHER NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WITH A CONNECTION
TO LAKE SUPERIOR TOMORROW WILL STAY NORTH OF KGRR/KLAN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. GALES TO 40 KNOTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR WILL
ALSO RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND
CONTINUES AT MAPLE RAPIDS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP THE
ADVISORY AT THAT LOCATION.

THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS ON THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP SHOW
SMALL...THIN PIECES OF ICE FLOWING IN THE RIVER. A FEW RIVER
GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GET COLDER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE LATE IN THE WINTER
SEASON AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT ICE DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LONG PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ASIDE FROM ANY LOCAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THAT
OCCURS...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. EVEN THIS WILL NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RIVER FLUCTUATION DUE TO ICE IN THE EVENT THAT THICK ICE DEVELOPS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ044-
     057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-050-056-072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04





000
FXUS63 KGRR 121614
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1114 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE UP AND WILL MOVE DOWN THE
LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. A BAND OF SHOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE LAKE SHORE SOUTH OF HOLLAND.

VERY COLD AIR RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER AIR IN THE 30S ARRIVES MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR A BAND OF SNOW SQUALLS FORECAST BY NEARLY
ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TO TRACK SOUTH...JUST AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT. CURRENTLY WE CAN SEE THIS BAND ON OUR MRM RADAR
PRODUCT WHICH AT 1045 AM...WAS JUST CROSSING THE BIG MAC BRIDGE.
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT AND AS THIS SQUALL MOVES THROUGH YOUR AREA EXPECT
ABOUT 15 TO 30 MINUTES OF HEAVY SNOW...WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH AND
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. THIS WILL REACH THE INTERSTATE 96 AREA
BETWEEN 530 PM AND 630 PM. IT WILL THEN REACH THE I-94 AREA
BETWEEN 8 PM AND 9 PM. I WOULD NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF
SNOW FROM THIS BUT THE LOW VISIBILITIES...TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 35 MPH WILL MAKE THIS DANGEROUS TO
BE OUTSIDE AT THAT TIME.

OTHEWISE THE OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WE WILL SEE SNOW
CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT BUT
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 7 PM WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 1 TO 2
INCH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE GOING FORECAST IS STILL MAINLY ON TRACK AND THE HEADLINES ARE
UNCHANGED. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO BACK OFF ON ACCUMS
INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SFC CHART SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT STRETCHING WEST ACROSS THE
UP. THIS FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. LATEST
HRRR SHOWS A BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG I-96
BY 9 AM OR SO AND THEN MOVING SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE PCPN
FROM MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DEVELOP. H8 TEMPS
FALL FROM -18C AROUND 18Z TO -26C BY 06Z TONIGHT. INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKE WILL BE EXTREME BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED A BIT. WITH
THAT IN MIND WE BACKED OFF ACCUMS A BIT ESPECIALLY EAST OF US-131.
STILL THINK THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL SOUTH OF HOLLAND ALONG THE
LAKE SHORE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL BELOW 0
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE BELOW 0 MUCH OF SATURDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
ONLY CLIMB TO THE MID TEENS. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS BELOW 0 IN MANY
LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND AS SKIES WILL CLEAR.

THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL SPREAD SNOW TOWARD THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BUT MUCH OF IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LONG TERM PERIOD STILL LOOKS FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL BY FEBRUARY
STANDARDS. THE FLOW IS ZONAL IN NATURE WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. THERE IS A SURGE OF COLDER
AIR MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH IS IT NOT TERRIBLY COLD (850MB TEMPS MINUS
MID TEENS C). OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY LOCKED IN ON AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...MORE OF
A WEAK TROUGH. HAVE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...30-50
PCT. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS...INCH OR LESS BUT NOT MUCH MORE
THAN THAT.

BEYOND THAT...AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PRIOR AFD/S...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRYING TO PHASE IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PHASING SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD
OCCURRING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A STRONG LOW FORMING IN NEW
ENGLAND. THE AFFECTS ON OUR AREA SHOULD BE LIMITED. HAVE SOME SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY-THURSDAY ON THE ORDER
OF 20-30 PCT. THE COLD AIR THAT IS TUGGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH MID WEEK IS DUE TO THE WRAPPED UP LOW ON THE EAST COAST. IT
APPEARS THERE IS A WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT IN CHECK THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

A MIX OF MVFR... IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISBYS IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF PREDOMINANTLY LIFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

NW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT LATE TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
KMKG AND PERHAPS THE KAZO TERMINALS WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES
ANTICIPATED FURTHER INLAND.

CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMKG AND KAZO WHERE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER DUE TO NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. ANOTHER NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WITH A CONNECTION
TO LAKE SUPERIOR TOMORROW WILL STAY NORTH OF KGRR/KLAN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. GALES TO 40 KNOTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR WILL
ALSO RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND
CONTINUES AT MAPLE RAPIDS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP THE
ADVISORY AT THAT LOCATION.

THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS ON THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP SHOW
SMALL...THIN PIECES OF ICE FLOWING IN THE RIVER. A FEW RIVER
GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GET COLDER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE LATE IN THE WINTER
SEASON AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT ICE DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LONG PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ASIDE FROM ANY LOCAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THAT
OCCURS...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. EVEN THIS WILL NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RIVER FLUCTUATION DUE TO ICE IN THE EVENT THAT THICK ICE DEVELOPS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ044-
     057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-050-056-072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 121558
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1058 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE UP AND WILL MOVE DOWN THE
LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. A BAND OF SHOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE LAKE SHORE SOUTH OF HOLLAND.

VERY COLD AIR RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER AIR IN THE 30S ARRIVES MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR A BAND OF SNOW SQUALLS FORECAST BY NEARLY
ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TO TRACK SOUTH...JUST AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT. CURRENTLY WE CAN SEE THIS BAND ON OUR MRM RADAR
PRODUCT WHICH AT 1045 AM...WAS JUST CROSSING THE BIG MAC BRIDGE.
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT AND AS THIS SQUALL MOVES THROUGH YOUR AREA EXPECT
ABOUT 15 TO 30 MINUTES OF HEAVY SNOW...WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH AND
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. THIS WILL REACH THE INTERSTATE 96 AREA
BETWEEN 530 PM AND 630 PM. IT WILL THEN REACH THE I-94 AREA
BETWEEN 8 PM AND 9 PM. I WOULD NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF
SNOW FROM THIS BUT THE LOW VISIBILITIES...TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 35 MPH WILL MAKE THIS DANGEROUS TO
BE OUTSIDE AT THAT TIME.

OTHEWISE THE OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WE WILL SEE SNOW
CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT BUT
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 7 PM WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 1 TO 2
INCH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE GOING FORECAST IS STILL MAINLY ON TRACK AND THE HEADLINES ARE
UNCHANGED. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO BACK OFF ON ACCUMS
INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SFC CHART SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT STRETCHING WEST ACROSS THE
UP. THIS FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. LATEST
HRRR SHOWS A BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG I-96
BY 9 AM OR SO AND THEN MOVING SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE PCPN
FROM MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DEVELOP. H8 TEMPS
FALL FROM -18C AROUND 18Z TO -26C BY 06Z TONIGHT. INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKE WILL BE EXTREME BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED A BIT. WITH
THAT IN MIND WE BACKED OFF ACCUMS A BIT ESPECIALLY EAST OF US-131.
STILL THINK THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL SOUTH OF HOLLAND ALONG THE
LAKE SHORE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL BELOW 0
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE BELOW 0 MUCH OF SATURDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
ONLY CLIMB TO THE MID TEENS. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS BELOW 0 IN MANY
LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND AS SKIES WILL CLEAR.

THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL SPREAD SNOW TOWARD THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BUT MUCH OF IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LONG TERM PERIOD STILL LOOKS FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL BY FEBRUARY
STANDARDS. THE FLOW IS ZONAL IN NATURE WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. THERE IS A SURGE OF COLDER
AIR MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH IS IT NOT TERRIBLY COLD (850MB TEMPS MINUS
MID TEENS C). OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY LOCKED IN ON AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...MORE OF
A WEAK TROUGH. HAVE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...30-50
PCT. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS...INCH OR LESS BUT NOT MUCH MORE
THAN THAT.

BEYOND THAT...AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PRIOR AFD/S...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRYING TO PHASE IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PHASING SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD
OCCURRING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A STRONG LOW FORMING IN NEW
ENGLAND. THE AFFECTS ON OUR AREA SHOULD BE LIMITED. HAVE SOME SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY-THURSDAY ON THE ORDER
OF 20-30 PCT. THE COLD AIR THAT IS TUGGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH MID WEEK IS DUE TO THE WRAPPED UP LOW ON THE EAST COAST. IT
APPEARS THERE IS A WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT IN CHECK THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE TODAY
BRINGING WITH IT A BURST OF SNOW. THE SNOW WILL BE ENHANCED OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE
AREAS OF SNOW. WITHIN THE SNOW...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES WITH EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SPOTTY IFR.

WINDS WILL RAMP UP THIS MORNING AND BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
30 KNOTS BY MIDDAY AND LASTING INTO THE EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT KMKG...KAZO AND KGRR ESPECIALLY.

TONIGHT...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND MOST TAF SITES
WILL GO VFR AS THE SNOW BAND WILL BE HUGGING THE LAKESHORE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. GALES TO 40 KNOTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR WILL
ALSO RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND
CONTINUES AT MAPLE RAPIDS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP THE
ADVISORY AT THAT LOCATION.

THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS ON THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP SHOW
SMALL...THIN PIECES OF ICE FLOWING IN THE RIVER. A FEW RIVER
GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GET COLDER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE LATE IN THE WINTER
SEASON AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT ICE DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LONG PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ASIDE FROM ANY LOCAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THAT
OCCURS...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. EVEN THIS WILL NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RIVER FLUCTUATION DUE TO ICE IN THE EVENT THAT THICK ICE DEVELOPS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ044-
     057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-050-056-072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04





000
FXUS63 KGRR 121234
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
734 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE UP AND WILL MOVE DOWN THE
LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. A BAND OF SHOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE LAKE SHORE SOUTH OF HOLLAND.

VERY COLD AIR RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER AIR IN THE 30S ARRIVES MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE GOING FORECAST IS STILL MAINLY ON TRACK AND THE HEADLINES ARE
UNCHANGED. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO BACK OFF ON ACCUMS
INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SFC CHART SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT STRETCHING WEST ACROSS THE
UP. THIS FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. LATEST
HRRR SHOWS A BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG I-96
BY 9 AM OR SO AND THEN MOVING SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE PCPN
FROM MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DEVELOP. H8 TEMPS
FALL FROM -18C AROUND 18Z TO -26C BY 06Z TONIGHT. INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKE WILL BE EXTREME BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED A BIT. WITH
THAT IN MIND WE BACKED OFF ACCUMS A BIT ESPECIALLY EAST OF US-131.
STILL THINK THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL SOUTH OF HOLLAND ALONG THE
LAKE SHORE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL BELOW 0
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE BELOW 0 MUCH OF SATURDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
ONLY CLIMB TO THE MID TEENS. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS BELOW 0 IN MANY
LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND AS SKIES WILL CLEAR.

THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL SPREAD SNOW TOWARD THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BUT MUCH OF IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LONG TERM PERIOD STILL LOOKS FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL BY FEBRUARY
STANDARDS. THE FLOW IS ZONAL IN NATURE WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. THERE IS A SURGE OF COLDER
AIR MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH IS IT NOT TERRIBLY COLD (850MB TEMPS MINUS
MID TEENS C). OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY LOCKED IN ON AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...MORE OF
A WEAK TROUGH. HAVE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...30-50
PCT. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS...INCH OR LESS BUT NOT MUCH MORE
THAN THAT.

BEYOND THAT...AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PRIOR AFD/S...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRYING TO PHASE IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PHASING SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD
OCCURRING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A STRONG LOW FORMING IN NEW
ENGLAND. THE AFFECTS ON OUR AREA SHOULD BE LIMITED. HAVE SOME SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY-THURSDAY ON THE ORDER
OF 20-30 PCT. THE COLD AIR THAT IS TUGGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH MID WEEK IS DUE TO THE WRAPPED UP LOW ON THE EAST COAST. IT
APPEARS THERE IS A WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT IN CHECK THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE TODAY
BRINGING WITH IT A BURST OF SNOW. THE SNOW WILL BE ENHANCED OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE
AREAS OF SNOW. WITHIN THE SNOW...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES WITH EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SPOTTY IFR.

WINDS WILL RAMP UP THIS MORNING AND BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
30 KNOTS BY MIDDAY AND LASTING INTO THE EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT KMKG...KAZO AND KGRR ESPECIALLY.

TONIGHT...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND MOST TAF SITES
WILL GO VFR AS THE SNOW BAND WILL BE HUGGING THE LAKESHORE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. GALES TO 40 KNOTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR WILL
ALSO RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND
CONTINUES AT MAPLE RAPIDS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP THE
ADVISORY AT THAT LOCATION.

THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS ON THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP SHOW
SMALL...THIN PIECES OF ICE FLOWING IN THE RIVER. A FEW RIVER
GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GET COLDER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE LATE IN THE WINTER
SEASON AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT ICE DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LONG PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ASIDE FROM ANY LOCAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THAT
OCCURS...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. EVEN THIS WILL NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RIVER FLUCTUATION DUE TO ICE IN THE EVENT THAT THICK ICE DEVELOPS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ044-
     057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-050-056-072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04





000
FXUS63 KGRR 120825
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE UP AND WILL MOVE DOWN THE
LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. A BAND OF SHOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE LAKE SHORE SOUTH OF HOLLAND.

VERY COLD AIR RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER AIR IN THE 30S ARRIVES MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE GOING FORECAST IS STILL MAINLY ON TRACK AND THE HEADLINES ARE
UNCHANGED. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO BACK OFF ON ACCUMS
INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SFC CHART SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT STRETCHING WEST ACROSS THE
UP. THIS FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. LATEST
HRRR SHOWS A BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG I-96
BY 9 AM OR SO AND THEN MOVING SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE PCPN
FROM MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DEVELOP. H8 TEMPS
FALL FROM -18C AROUND 18Z TO -26C BY 06Z TONIGHT. INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKE WILL BE EXTREME BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED A BIT. WITH
THAT IN MIND WE BACKED OFF ACCUMS A BIT ESPECIALLY EAST OF US-131.
STILL THINK THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL SOUTH OF HOLLAND ALONG THE
LAKE SHORE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL BELOW 0
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE BELOW 0 MUCH OF SATURDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
ONLY CLIMB TO THE MID TEENS. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS BELOW 0 IN MANY
LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND AS SKIES WILL CLEAR.

THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL SPREAD SNOW TOWARD THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BUT MUCH OF IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LONG TERM PERIOD STILL LOOKS FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL BY FEBRUARY
STANDARDS. THE FLOW IS ZONAL IN NATURE WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. THERE IS A SURGE OF COLDER
AIR MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH IS IT NOT TERRIBLY COLD (850MB TEMPS MINUS
MID TEENS C). OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY LOCKED IN ON AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...MORE OF
A WEAK TROUGH. HAVE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...30-50
PCT. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS...INCH OR LESS BUT NOT MUCH MORE
THAN THAT.

BEYOND THAT...AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PRIOR AFD/S...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRYING TO PHASE IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PHASING SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD
OCCURRING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A STRONG LOW FORMING IN NEW
ENGLAND. THE AFFECTS ON OUR AREA SHOULD BE LIMITED. HAVE SOME SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY-THURSDAY ON THE ORDER
OF 20-30 PCT. THE COLD AIR THAT IS TUGGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH MID WEEK IS DUE TO THE WRAPPED UP LOW ON THE EAST COAST. IT
APPEARS THERE IS A WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT IN CHECK THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR AFTER
12Z FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
AS AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. SPOTTY IFR
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN HEAVIER SNOW. THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...LAN...JXN...AND BTL SHOULD BE ABLE TO IMPROVE TO VFR
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO. MVFR WILL LINGER AT MKG.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS THROUGH LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS GO NORTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. GALES TO 40 KNOTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR WILL
ALSO RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND
CONTINUES AT MAPLE RAPIDS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP THE
ADVISORY AT THAT LOCATION.

THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS ON THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP SHOW
SMALL...THIN PIECES OF ICE FLOWING IN THE RIVER. A FEW RIVER
GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GET COLDER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE LATE IN THE WINTER
SEASON AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT ICE DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LONG PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ASIDE FROM ANY LOCAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THAT
OCCURS...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. EVEN THIS WILL NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RIVER FLUCTUATION DUE TO ICE IN THE EVENT THAT THICK ICE DEVELOPS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ044-057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04





000
FXUS63 KGRR 120825
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE UP AND WILL MOVE DOWN THE
LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. A BAND OF SHOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE LAKE SHORE SOUTH OF HOLLAND.

VERY COLD AIR RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER AIR IN THE 30S ARRIVES MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE GOING FORECAST IS STILL MAINLY ON TRACK AND THE HEADLINES ARE
UNCHANGED. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO BACK OFF ON ACCUMS
INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SFC CHART SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT STRETCHING WEST ACROSS THE
UP. THIS FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. LATEST
HRRR SHOWS A BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG I-96
BY 9 AM OR SO AND THEN MOVING SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE PCPN
FROM MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DEVELOP. H8 TEMPS
FALL FROM -18C AROUND 18Z TO -26C BY 06Z TONIGHT. INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKE WILL BE EXTREME BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED A BIT. WITH
THAT IN MIND WE BACKED OFF ACCUMS A BIT ESPECIALLY EAST OF US-131.
STILL THINK THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL SOUTH OF HOLLAND ALONG THE
LAKE SHORE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL BELOW 0
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE BELOW 0 MUCH OF SATURDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
ONLY CLIMB TO THE MID TEENS. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS BELOW 0 IN MANY
LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND AS SKIES WILL CLEAR.

THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL SPREAD SNOW TOWARD THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BUT MUCH OF IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LONG TERM PERIOD STILL LOOKS FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL BY FEBRUARY
STANDARDS. THE FLOW IS ZONAL IN NATURE WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. THERE IS A SURGE OF COLDER
AIR MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH IS IT NOT TERRIBLY COLD (850MB TEMPS MINUS
MID TEENS C). OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY LOCKED IN ON AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...MORE OF
A WEAK TROUGH. HAVE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...30-50
PCT. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS...INCH OR LESS BUT NOT MUCH MORE
THAN THAT.

BEYOND THAT...AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PRIOR AFD/S...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRYING TO PHASE IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PHASING SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD
OCCURRING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A STRONG LOW FORMING IN NEW
ENGLAND. THE AFFECTS ON OUR AREA SHOULD BE LIMITED. HAVE SOME SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY-THURSDAY ON THE ORDER
OF 20-30 PCT. THE COLD AIR THAT IS TUGGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH MID WEEK IS DUE TO THE WRAPPED UP LOW ON THE EAST COAST. IT
APPEARS THERE IS A WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT IN CHECK THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR AFTER
12Z FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
AS AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. SPOTTY IFR
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN HEAVIER SNOW. THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...LAN...JXN...AND BTL SHOULD BE ABLE TO IMPROVE TO VFR
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO. MVFR WILL LINGER AT MKG.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS THROUGH LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS GO NORTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. GALES TO 40 KNOTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR WILL
ALSO RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND
CONTINUES AT MAPLE RAPIDS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP THE
ADVISORY AT THAT LOCATION.

THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS ON THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP SHOW
SMALL...THIN PIECES OF ICE FLOWING IN THE RIVER. A FEW RIVER
GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GET COLDER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE LATE IN THE WINTER
SEASON AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT ICE DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LONG PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ASIDE FROM ANY LOCAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THAT
OCCURS...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. EVEN THIS WILL NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RIVER FLUCTUATION DUE TO ICE IN THE EVENT THAT THICK ICE DEVELOPS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ044-057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04





000
FXUS63 KGRR 120825
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE UP AND WILL MOVE DOWN THE
LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. A BAND OF SHOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE LAKE SHORE SOUTH OF HOLLAND.

VERY COLD AIR RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER AIR IN THE 30S ARRIVES MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE GOING FORECAST IS STILL MAINLY ON TRACK AND THE HEADLINES ARE
UNCHANGED. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO BACK OFF ON ACCUMS
INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SFC CHART SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT STRETCHING WEST ACROSS THE
UP. THIS FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. LATEST
HRRR SHOWS A BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG I-96
BY 9 AM OR SO AND THEN MOVING SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE PCPN
FROM MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DEVELOP. H8 TEMPS
FALL FROM -18C AROUND 18Z TO -26C BY 06Z TONIGHT. INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKE WILL BE EXTREME BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED A BIT. WITH
THAT IN MIND WE BACKED OFF ACCUMS A BIT ESPECIALLY EAST OF US-131.
STILL THINK THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL SOUTH OF HOLLAND ALONG THE
LAKE SHORE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL BELOW 0
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE BELOW 0 MUCH OF SATURDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
ONLY CLIMB TO THE MID TEENS. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS BELOW 0 IN MANY
LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND AS SKIES WILL CLEAR.

THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL SPREAD SNOW TOWARD THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BUT MUCH OF IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LONG TERM PERIOD STILL LOOKS FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL BY FEBRUARY
STANDARDS. THE FLOW IS ZONAL IN NATURE WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. THERE IS A SURGE OF COLDER
AIR MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH IS IT NOT TERRIBLY COLD (850MB TEMPS MINUS
MID TEENS C). OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY LOCKED IN ON AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...MORE OF
A WEAK TROUGH. HAVE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...30-50
PCT. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS...INCH OR LESS BUT NOT MUCH MORE
THAN THAT.

BEYOND THAT...AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PRIOR AFD/S...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRYING TO PHASE IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PHASING SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD
OCCURRING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A STRONG LOW FORMING IN NEW
ENGLAND. THE AFFECTS ON OUR AREA SHOULD BE LIMITED. HAVE SOME SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY-THURSDAY ON THE ORDER
OF 20-30 PCT. THE COLD AIR THAT IS TUGGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH MID WEEK IS DUE TO THE WRAPPED UP LOW ON THE EAST COAST. IT
APPEARS THERE IS A WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT IN CHECK THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR AFTER
12Z FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
AS AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. SPOTTY IFR
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN HEAVIER SNOW. THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...LAN...JXN...AND BTL SHOULD BE ABLE TO IMPROVE TO VFR
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO. MVFR WILL LINGER AT MKG.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS THROUGH LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS GO NORTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE. UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. GALES TO 40 KNOTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR WILL
ALSO RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND
CONTINUES AT MAPLE RAPIDS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP THE
ADVISORY AT THAT LOCATION.

THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS ON THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP SHOW
SMALL...THIN PIECES OF ICE FLOWING IN THE RIVER. A FEW RIVER
GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GET COLDER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE LATE IN THE WINTER
SEASON AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT ICE DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LONG PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ASIDE FROM ANY LOCAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THAT
OCCURS...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. EVEN THIS WILL NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RIVER FLUCTUATION DUE TO ICE IN THE EVENT THAT THICK ICE DEVELOPS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ044-057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 120452
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1152 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
CORRECTED AT 442 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION BUT LOWS WILL BE COLD... MOSTLY BETWEEN 10
AND 15 ABOVE. AN ARCTIC FRONT COMES THROUGH FRIDAY AND IT WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND INCREASED WINDS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MEASURABLE SNOW BY EVENING. AS THE ARCTIC AIR COMES IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER... LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE LAKE SHORE WITH
AREAS SOUTH OF HOLLAND AND WEST OF US-31 SEEING THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE WIND AND SNOW ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY COLD WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES.

A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW... BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO NEAR FREEZING.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT.
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SNOW
FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
CORRECTED AT 442 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

I HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN
COUNTIES FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVER A
FOOT OF SNOW POSSIBLE LOCALLY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS CAUSING
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. I HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES FOR THE SAME TIME
PERIOD BUT SNOWFALL THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE.
FOR THE SECOND ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND... I ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SINCE BOTH THE
MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES WILL BE IMPACTED BY IT.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT STARTING TO DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE. HOWEVER SNOW WILL QUICKLY REFORM AS
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IN COMBINATION WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING IN CREATE SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR I-96. NONE OF THIS
WILL ACCUMULATE TO MUCH THOUGH. MORE LIKE NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT GETS INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS JUMP TO 8000 FT WHILE THE DGZ INCREASES IN DEPTH
TO NEARLY 6000 FT. WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT...
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND DEEP DGZ IT WOULD SEEM WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD
OF AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. HENCE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SECOND ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW.

BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WE HAVE 8000 FT INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THETA-E DECREASES
WITH HEIGHT TO 8000 FT WHILE THERE IS UP TO 200 J/KG OF CAPE AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN ON NORTH NORTHWEST
WINDS. THIS WILL SET UP A DOMINANT SNOW BAND FROM NEAR SOUTH HAVEN
TO AROUND BLOOMINGDALE ( MORE OR LESS) THAT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT. I EXPECT HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH
GUSTY WINDS DURING THIS TIME... HENCE THE WARNING.

ALL OF THIS SLOWLY DIMINISHES SATURDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES SETTING UP EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. TEMPS WILL
MODERATE AND RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

IT IS NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION MONDAY AND TAKES IT
NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHILE ALSO INDICATE THIS SYSTEM
COULD STRENGTHEN. A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE GLOBAL GEM... UKMET AND GFS ALL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY WELL SE OF OUR REGION.

HOWEVER IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK DEEPENS WITH PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS THEN THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR THAT
STRENGTHENING SYSTEM TO IMPACT LWR MI. SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS
CLOSELY AS 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT FAR SOUTH TO SE LWR MI MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR AFTER
12Z FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
AS AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. SPOTTY IFR
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN HEAVIER SNOW. THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...LAN...JXN...AND BTL SHOULD BE ABLE TO IMPROVE TO VFR
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO. MVFR WILL LINGER AT MKG.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS THROUGH LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS GO NORTHWEST.



&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM FRIDAY AND
IS FOLLOWED BY A GALE WATCH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY
DUE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY REACH GALE
FORCE AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO DEVELOP
WITH THE STRONG NW FLOW CAA AND FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND
CONTINUES AT MAPLE RAPIDS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP THE
ADVISORY AT THAT LOCATION.

THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS ON THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP SHOW
SMALL...THIN PIECES OF ICE FLOWING IN THE RIVER. A FEW RIVER
GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GET COLDER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE LATE IN THE WINTER
SEASON AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT ICE DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LONG PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ASIDE FROM ANY LOCAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THAT
OCCURS...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. EVEN THIS WILL NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RIVER FLUCTUATION DUE TO ICE IN THE EVENT THAT THICK ICE DEVELOPS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ044-
     057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-072.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...LAURENS





000
FXUS63 KGRR 120452
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1152 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
CORRECTED AT 442 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION BUT LOWS WILL BE COLD... MOSTLY BETWEEN 10
AND 15 ABOVE. AN ARCTIC FRONT COMES THROUGH FRIDAY AND IT WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND INCREASED WINDS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MEASURABLE SNOW BY EVENING. AS THE ARCTIC AIR COMES IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER... LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE LAKE SHORE WITH
AREAS SOUTH OF HOLLAND AND WEST OF US-31 SEEING THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE WIND AND SNOW ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY COLD WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES.

A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW... BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO NEAR FREEZING.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT.
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SNOW
FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
CORRECTED AT 442 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

I HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN
COUNTIES FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVER A
FOOT OF SNOW POSSIBLE LOCALLY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS CAUSING
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. I HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES FOR THE SAME TIME
PERIOD BUT SNOWFALL THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE.
FOR THE SECOND ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND... I ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SINCE BOTH THE
MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES WILL BE IMPACTED BY IT.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT STARTING TO DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE. HOWEVER SNOW WILL QUICKLY REFORM AS
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IN COMBINATION WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING IN CREATE SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR I-96. NONE OF THIS
WILL ACCUMULATE TO MUCH THOUGH. MORE LIKE NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT GETS INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS JUMP TO 8000 FT WHILE THE DGZ INCREASES IN DEPTH
TO NEARLY 6000 FT. WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT...
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND DEEP DGZ IT WOULD SEEM WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD
OF AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. HENCE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SECOND ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW.

BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WE HAVE 8000 FT INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THETA-E DECREASES
WITH HEIGHT TO 8000 FT WHILE THERE IS UP TO 200 J/KG OF CAPE AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN ON NORTH NORTHWEST
WINDS. THIS WILL SET UP A DOMINANT SNOW BAND FROM NEAR SOUTH HAVEN
TO AROUND BLOOMINGDALE ( MORE OR LESS) THAT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT. I EXPECT HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH
GUSTY WINDS DURING THIS TIME... HENCE THE WARNING.

ALL OF THIS SLOWLY DIMINISHES SATURDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES SETTING UP EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. TEMPS WILL
MODERATE AND RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

IT IS NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION MONDAY AND TAKES IT
NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHILE ALSO INDICATE THIS SYSTEM
COULD STRENGTHEN. A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE GLOBAL GEM... UKMET AND GFS ALL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY WELL SE OF OUR REGION.

HOWEVER IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK DEEPENS WITH PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS THEN THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR THAT
STRENGTHENING SYSTEM TO IMPACT LWR MI. SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS
CLOSELY AS 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT FAR SOUTH TO SE LWR MI MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR AFTER
12Z FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
AS AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. SPOTTY IFR
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN HEAVIER SNOW. THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...LAN...JXN...AND BTL SHOULD BE ABLE TO IMPROVE TO VFR
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO. MVFR WILL LINGER AT MKG.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS THROUGH LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS GO NORTHWEST.



&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM FRIDAY AND
IS FOLLOWED BY A GALE WATCH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY
DUE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY REACH GALE
FORCE AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO DEVELOP
WITH THE STRONG NW FLOW CAA AND FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND
CONTINUES AT MAPLE RAPIDS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP THE
ADVISORY AT THAT LOCATION.

THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS ON THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP SHOW
SMALL...THIN PIECES OF ICE FLOWING IN THE RIVER. A FEW RIVER
GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GET COLDER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE LATE IN THE WINTER
SEASON AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT ICE DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LONG PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ASIDE FROM ANY LOCAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THAT
OCCURS...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. EVEN THIS WILL NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RIVER FLUCTUATION DUE TO ICE IN THE EVENT THAT THICK ICE DEVELOPS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ044-
     057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-072.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...LAURENS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 120231
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
931 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
CORRECTED AT 442 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION BUT LOWS WILL BE COLD... MOSTLY BETWEEN 10
AND 15 ABOVE. AN ARCTIC FRONT COMES THROUGH FRIDAY AND IT WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND INCREASED WINDS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MEASURABLE SNOW BY EVENING. AS THE ARCTIC AIR COMES IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER... LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE LAKE SHORE WITH
AREAS SOUTH OF HOLLAND AND WEST OF US-31 SEEING THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE WIND AND SNOW ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY COLD WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES.

A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW... BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO NEAR FREEZING.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT.
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SNOW
FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
CORRECTED AT 442 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

I HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN
COUNTIES FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVER A
FOOT OF SNOW POSSIBLE LOCALLY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS CAUSING
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. I HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES FOR THE SAME TIME
PERIOD BUT SNOWFALL THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE.
FOR THE SECOND ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND... I ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SINCE BOTH THE
MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES WILL BE IMPACTED BY IT.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT STARTING TO DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE. HOWEVER SNOW WILL QUICKLY REFORM AS
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IN COMBINATION WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING IN CREATE SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR I-96. NONE OF THIS
WILL ACCUMULATE TO MUCH THOUGH. MORE LIKE NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT GETS INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS JUMP TO 8000 FT WHILE THE DGZ INCREASES IN DEPTH
TO NEARLY 6000 FT. WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT...
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND DEEP DGZ IT WOULD SEEM WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD
OF AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. HENCE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SECOND ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW.

BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WE HAVE 8000 FT INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THETA-E DECREASES
WITH HEIGHT TO 8000 FT WHILE THERE IS UP TO 200 J/KG OF CAPE AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN ON NORTH NORTHWEST
WINDS. THIS WILL SET UP A DOMINANT SNOW BAND FROM NEAR SOUTH HAVEN
TO AROUND BLOOMINGDALE ( MORE OR LESS) THAT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT. I EXPECT HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH
GUSTY WINDS DURING THIS TIME... HENCE THE WARNING.

ALL OF THIS SLOWLY DIMINISHES SATURDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES SETTING UP EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. TEMPS WILL
MODERATE AND RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

IT IS NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION MONDAY AND TAKES IT
NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHILE ALSO INDICATE THIS SYSTEM
COULD STRENGTHEN. A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE GLOBAL GEM... UKMET AND GFS ALL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY WELL SE OF OUR REGION.

HOWEVER IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK DEEPENS WITH PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS THEN THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR THAT
STRENGTHENING SYSTEM TO IMPACT LWR MI. SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS
CLOSELY AS 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT FAR SOUTH TO SE LWR MI MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING...BUT IS RESULTING IN VERY SPOTTY MVFR. THE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP BETWEEN 11-15Z FRIDAY...AND CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR ONCE AGAIN. IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL AT KMKG DUE TO HEAVIER SNOW. WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KTS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM FRIDAY AND
IS FOLLOWED BY A GALE WATCH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY
DUE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY REACH GALE
FORCE AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO DEVELOP
WITH THE STRONG NW FLOW CAA AND FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND
CONTINUES AT MAPLE RAPIDS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP THE
ADVISORY AT THAT LOCATION.

THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS ON THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP SHOW
SMALL...THIN PIECES OF ICE FLOWING IN THE RIVER. A FEW RIVER
GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GET COLDER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE LATE IN THE WINTER
SEASON AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT ICE DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LONG PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ASIDE FROM ANY LOCAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THAT
OCCURS...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. EVEN THIS WILL NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RIVER FLUCTUATION DUE TO ICE IN THE EVENT THAT THICK ICE DEVELOPS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ044-
     057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-072.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...LAURENS





000
FXUS63 KGRR 112349
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
649 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
CORRECTED AT 442 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION BUT LOWS WILL BE COLD... MOSTLY BETWEEN 10
AND 15 ABOVE. AN ARCTIC FRONT COMES THROUGH FRIDAY AND IT WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND INCREASED WINDS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MEASURABLE SNOW BY EVENING. AS THE ARCTIC AIR COMES IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER... LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE LAKE SHORE WITH
AREAS SOUTH OF HOLLAND AND WEST OF US-31 SEEING THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE WIND AND SNOW ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY COLD WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES.

A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW... BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO NEAR FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
CORRECTED AT 442 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

I HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN
COUNTIES FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVER A
FOOT OF SNOW POSSIBLE LOCALLY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS CAUSING
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. I HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES FOR THE SAME TIME
PERIOD BUT SNOWFALL THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE.
FOR THE SECOND ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND... I ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SINCE BOTH THE
MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES WILL BE IMPACTED BY IT.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT STARTING TO DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE. HOWEVER SNOW WILL QUICKLY REFORM AS
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IN COMBINATION WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING IN CREATE SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR I-96. NONE OF THIS
WILL ACCUMULATE TO MUCH THOUGH. MORE LIKE NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT GETS INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS JUMP TO 8000 FT WHILE THE DGZ INCREASES IN DEPTH
TO NEARLY 6000 FT. WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT...
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND DEEP DGZ IT WOULD SEEM WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD
OF AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. HENCE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SECOND ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW.

BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WE HAVE 8000 FT INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THETA-E DECREASES
WITH HEIGHT TO 8000 FT WHILE THERE IS UP TO 200 J/KG OF CAPE AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN ON NORTH NORTHWEST
WINDS. THIS WILL SET UP A DOMINANT SNOW BAND FROM NEAR SOUTH HAVEN
TO AROUND BLOOMINGDALE ( MORE OR LESS) THAT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT. I EXPECT HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH
GUSTY WINDS DURING THIS TIME... HENCE THE WARNING.

ALL OF THIS SLOWLY DIMINISHES SATURDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES SETTING UP EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. TEMPS WILL
MODERATE AND RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

IT IS NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION MONDAY AND TAKES IT
NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHILE ALSO INDICATE THIS SYSTEM
COULD STRENGTHEN. A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE GLOBAL GEM... UKMET AND GFS ALL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY WELL SE OF OUR REGION.

HOWEVER IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK DEEPENS WITH PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS THEN THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR THAT
STRENGTHENING SYSTEM TO IMPACT LWR MI. SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS
CLOSELY AS 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT FAR SOUTH TO SE LWR MI MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING...BUT IS RESULTING IN VERY SPOTTY MVFR. THE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP BETWEEN 11-15Z FRIDAY...AND CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR ONCE AGAIN. IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL AT KMKG DUE TO HEAVIER SNOW. WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KTS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM FRIDAY AND
IS FOLLOWED BY A GALE WATCH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY
DUE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY REACH GALE
FORCE AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO DEVELOP
WITH THE STRONG NW FLOW CAA AND FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND
CONTINUES AT MAPLE RAPIDS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP THE
ADVISORY AT THAT LOCATION.

THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS ON THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP SHOW
SMALL...THIN PIECES OF ICE FLOWING IN THE RIVER. A FEW RIVER
GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GET COLDER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE LATE IN THE WINTER
SEASON AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT ICE DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LONG PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ASIDE FROM ANY LOCAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THAT
OCCURS...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. EVEN THIS WILL NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RIVER FLUCTUATION DUE TO ICE IN THE EVENT THAT THICK ICE DEVELOPS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ044-
     057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-072.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...LAURENS





000
FXUS63 KGRR 112349
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
649 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
CORRECTED AT 442 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION BUT LOWS WILL BE COLD... MOSTLY BETWEEN 10
AND 15 ABOVE. AN ARCTIC FRONT COMES THROUGH FRIDAY AND IT WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND INCREASED WINDS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MEASURABLE SNOW BY EVENING. AS THE ARCTIC AIR COMES IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER... LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE LAKE SHORE WITH
AREAS SOUTH OF HOLLAND AND WEST OF US-31 SEEING THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE WIND AND SNOW ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY COLD WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES.

A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW... BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO NEAR FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
CORRECTED AT 442 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

I HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN
COUNTIES FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVER A
FOOT OF SNOW POSSIBLE LOCALLY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS CAUSING
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. I HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES FOR THE SAME TIME
PERIOD BUT SNOWFALL THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE.
FOR THE SECOND ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND... I ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SINCE BOTH THE
MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES WILL BE IMPACTED BY IT.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT STARTING TO DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE. HOWEVER SNOW WILL QUICKLY REFORM AS
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IN COMBINATION WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING IN CREATE SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR I-96. NONE OF THIS
WILL ACCUMULATE TO MUCH THOUGH. MORE LIKE NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT GETS INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS JUMP TO 8000 FT WHILE THE DGZ INCREASES IN DEPTH
TO NEARLY 6000 FT. WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT...
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND DEEP DGZ IT WOULD SEEM WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD
OF AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. HENCE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SECOND ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW.

BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WE HAVE 8000 FT INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THETA-E DECREASES
WITH HEIGHT TO 8000 FT WHILE THERE IS UP TO 200 J/KG OF CAPE AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN ON NORTH NORTHWEST
WINDS. THIS WILL SET UP A DOMINANT SNOW BAND FROM NEAR SOUTH HAVEN
TO AROUND BLOOMINGDALE ( MORE OR LESS) THAT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT. I EXPECT HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH
GUSTY WINDS DURING THIS TIME... HENCE THE WARNING.

ALL OF THIS SLOWLY DIMINISHES SATURDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES SETTING UP EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. TEMPS WILL
MODERATE AND RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

IT IS NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION MONDAY AND TAKES IT
NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHILE ALSO INDICATE THIS SYSTEM
COULD STRENGTHEN. A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE GLOBAL GEM... UKMET AND GFS ALL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY WELL SE OF OUR REGION.

HOWEVER IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK DEEPENS WITH PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS THEN THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR THAT
STRENGTHENING SYSTEM TO IMPACT LWR MI. SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS
CLOSELY AS 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT FAR SOUTH TO SE LWR MI MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING...BUT IS RESULTING IN VERY SPOTTY MVFR. THE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP BETWEEN 11-15Z FRIDAY...AND CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR ONCE AGAIN. IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL AT KMKG DUE TO HEAVIER SNOW. WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KTS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM FRIDAY AND
IS FOLLOWED BY A GALE WATCH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY
DUE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY REACH GALE
FORCE AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO DEVELOP
WITH THE STRONG NW FLOW CAA AND FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND
CONTINUES AT MAPLE RAPIDS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP THE
ADVISORY AT THAT LOCATION.

THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS ON THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP SHOW
SMALL...THIN PIECES OF ICE FLOWING IN THE RIVER. A FEW RIVER
GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GET COLDER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE LATE IN THE WINTER
SEASON AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT ICE DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LONG PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ASIDE FROM ANY LOCAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THAT
OCCURS...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. EVEN THIS WILL NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RIVER FLUCTUATION DUE TO ICE IN THE EVENT THAT THICK ICE DEVELOPS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ044-
     057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-072.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...LAURENS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 112142 CCA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
442 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
CORRECTED SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
CORRECTED AT 442 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION BUT LOWS WILL BE COLD... MOSTLY BETWEEN 10
AND 15 ABOVE. AN ARCTIC FRONT COMES THROUGH FRIDAY AND IT WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND INCREASED WINDS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MEASURABLE SNOW BY EVENING. AS THE ARCTIC AIR COMES IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER... LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE LAKE SHORE WITH
AREAS SOUTH OF HOLLAND AND WEST OF US-31 SEEING THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE WIND AND SNOW ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY COLD WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES.

A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW... BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO NEAR FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
CORRECTED AT 442 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

I HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN
COUNTIES FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVER A
FOOT OF SNOW POSSIBLE LOCALLY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS CAUSING
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. I HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES FOR THE SAME TIME
PERIOD BUT SNOWFALL THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE.
FOR THE SECOND ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND... I ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SINCE BOTH THE
MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES WILL BE IMPACTED BY IT.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT STARTING TO DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE. HOWEVER SNOW WILL QUICKLY REFORM AS
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IN COMBINATION WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING IN CREATE SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR I-96. NONE OF THIS
WILL ACCUMULATE TO MUCH THOUGH. MORE LIKE NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT GETS INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS JUMP TO 8000 FT WHILE THE DGZ INCREASES IN DEPTH
TO NEARLY 6000 FT. WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT...
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND DEEP DGZ IT WOULD SEEM WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD
OF AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. HENCE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SECOND ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW.

BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WE HAVE 8000 FT INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THETA-E DECREASES
WITH HEIGHT TO 8000 FT WHILE THERE IS UP TO 200 J/KG OF CAPE AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN ON NORTH NORTHWEST
WINDS. THIS WILL SET UP A DOMINANT SNOW BAND FROM NEAR SOUTH HAVEN
TO AROUND BLOOMINGDALE ( MORE OR LESS) THAT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT. I EXPECT HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH
GUSTY WINDS DURING THIS TIME... HENCE THE WARNING.

ALL OF THIS SLOWLY DIMINISHES SATURDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES SETTING UP EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. TEMPS WILL
MODERATE AND RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

IT IS NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION MONDAY AND TAKES IT
NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHILE ALSO INDICATE THIS SYSTEM
COULD STRENGTHEN. A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE GLOBAL GEM... UKMET AND GFS ALL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY WELL SE OF OUR REGION.

HOWEVER IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK DEEPENS WITH PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS THEN THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR THAT
STRENGTHENING SYSTEM TO IMPACT LWR MI. SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS
CLOSELY AS 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT FAR SOUTH TO SE LWR MI MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOP. CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE TO IFR AT KMKG WHERE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM FRIDAY AND
IS FOLLOWED BY A GALE WATCH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY
DUE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY REACH GALE
FORCE AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO DEVELOP
WITH THE STRONG NW FLOW CAA AND FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND
CONTINUES AT MAPLE RAPIDS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP THE
ADVISORY AT THAT LOCATION.

THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS ON THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP SHOW
SMALL...THIN PIECES OF ICE FLOWING IN THE RIVER. A FEW RIVER
GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GET COLDER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE LATE IN THE WINTER
SEASON AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT ICE DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LONG PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ASIDE FROM ANY LOCAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THAT
OCCURS...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. EVEN THIS WILL NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RIVER FLUCTUATION DUE TO ICE IN THE EVENT THAT THICK ICE DEVELOPS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ044-
     057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-072.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...LAURENS





000
FXUS63 KGRR 112028
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION BUT LOWS WILL BE COLD... MOSTLY BETWEEN 10
AND 15 ABOVE. AN ARCTIC FRONT COMES THROUGH FRIDAY AND IT WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND INCREASED WINDS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MEASURABLE SNOW BY EVENING. AS THE ARCTIC AIR COMES IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER... LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE LAKE SHORE WITH
AREAS SOUTH OF HOLLAND AND WEST OF US-31 SEEING THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WITH CONSIERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE WIND AND SNOW
ALONG THE LAKE SHORE SUBISDE BY SATURDAY EVENING BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES.

A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO NEAR FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

I HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN
COUNTIES FROM MID MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVER A
FOOT OF SNOW POSSIBLE LOCALLY ACCOMANIED BY GUSTY WINDS CAUSING
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ALSO I HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES FOR THE SAME TIME
PERIOD BUT SNOWFALL THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE.
FOR THE SECOND ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVIOSRY FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SINCE BOTH THE
MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTE WILL BE IMPACTED BY IT.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT STARTING TO DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING... THE SNOW
SNOWS WILL MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE. HOWEVER THEY WILL QUICKLY
REFORM AS SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IN
COMBINATION WITH THE TROUGH MOVING IN CREATE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
NEAR I-96. NONE OF THIS WILL ACCUMULATE TO MUCH THROUGH. MORE LIKE
NUSSICNES LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT GETS INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY THE
INVERSION HEIGHT JUMP TO 8000 FT WHILE THE DGZ INCREASES IN DEPTH
TO NEARLY 6000 FT. WITH THE LIFT ASSOCATED WITH THE ARCTIC
FRONT... THE DEEP MOISTURE AND DEEP DGZ IT WOULD SEEM WE SHOULD
SEE A PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT. HENCE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVIOSRY OF THE SECOND ROW OF
COUNTIES INLAND DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

BEIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WE HAVE 8000 FT INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THETA-E DECREASES
WITH HEIGHT TO 8000 FT WHILE THERE IS UP TO 200 J/KG OF CAPE AS
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN ON NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL SET UP A DOMANANT SNOW BAND FROM NEAR
SOUTH HAVEN TO AROUND BLOOMINGDALE ( MORE OR LESS) THAT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONALY A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT. I EXPCET HEAVY
SNOWFALL WITH GUSTS WINDS... DURING THIS TIME. HENCE THE WARNING.

ALL OF THIS SLOWLY DIMINISHES SATURDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES SETTING UP EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. TEMPS WILL
MODERATE AND RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

IT IS NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION MONDAY AND TAKES IT
NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHILE ALSO INDICATE THIS SYSTEM
COULD STRENGTHEN. A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE GLOBAL GEM... UKMET AND GFS ALL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY WELL SE OF OUR REGION.

HOWEVER IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK DEEPENS WITH PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS THEN THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR THAT
STRENGTHENING SYSTEM TO IMPACT LWR MI. SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS
CLOSELY AS 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT FAR SOUTH TO SE LWR MI MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOP. CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE TO IFR AT KMKG WHERE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM FRIDAY AND
IS FOLLOWED BY A GALE WATCH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY
DUE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY REACH GALE
FORCE AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO DEVELOP
WITH THE STRONG NW FLOW CAA AND FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND
CONTINUES AT MAPLE RAPIDS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP THE
ADVISORY AT THAT LOCATION.

THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS ON THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP SHOW
SMALL...THIN PIECES OF ICE FLOWING IN THE RIVER. A FEW RIVER
GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GET COLDER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE LATE IN THE WINTER
SEASON AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT ICE DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LONG PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ASIDE FROM ANY LOCAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THAT
OCCURS...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. EVEN THIS WILL NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RIVER FLUCTUATION DUE TO ICE IN THE EVENT THAT THICK ICE DEVELOPS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ044-
     057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-072.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...LAURENS





000
FXUS63 KGRR 111908
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
208 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SNOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END.  ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.  THE LULL IN THE SNOW WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND FLARING UP THE SNOW
AGAIN.  WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO INCREASE CAUSING BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  TRAVEL
IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF U.S. 131.  THE SNOW AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING BITTER
COLD...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH MORE SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 25 TO 30 NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TO BEST COORDINATE MESSAGING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LOCAL
MEDIA...WE WILL EXPIRE THE CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES SHORTLY.

HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL QUITE CONCERNED ABOUT THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE AND THERE IS ALREADY GOOD FORECAST CERTAINTY THAT VERY
SIMILAR RISKS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD BE REALIZED FOR SIMILAR
AREAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED AND COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WILL ALLOW THE HEADLINES TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE
FEELING IS THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THEM AT 10AM.  ANOTHER
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN
MORE HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

INVERSION LEVELS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN THIS MORNING AND THE THAT
TEND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN THE INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW BANDS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  AND AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST...FORCING THE MAIN BAND
INLAND AS IT WEAKENS.  BOTTOM LINE...LAKESHORE AREAS WILL SEE UP TO
ANOTHER 3 INCHES...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  THEN THE SNOW WEAKENS AND
PUSHES INLAND.  ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE
HEADLINE AREA.

TONIGHT WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW WITH INVERSIONS DROPPING AS LOW
AS 4K FEET.  HOWEVER AN ARCTIC FRONT AND IT/S UPPER WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT. SO EXPECT THE SNOW TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
09Z.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY...BUT THEN IT TURNS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131 SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT IT
SEEMS LIKE A 2-4 INCH TYPE SNOWFALL AS THE SNOW FLAKE SIZE BECOMES
SMALL INTO FRIDAY WITH THE DGZ NEAR THE GROUND...NOT ALLOWING FOR
MUCH ACCUMS.  HOWEVER EXPECT WE WILL NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT
AS THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.  GIVEN THE NEW SNOW
AND THE FRESH POWDERY SNOW WE HAVE ALREADY ON THE GROUND...
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CAUSE IMPACTS.

THE WIND AND SNOW SHOULD SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER
WIND CHILLS WILL STAY ZERO TO 10 BELOW IN SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PATTERN SHIFTS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS IN PLACE AND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IT SHIFTS TO A FLATTER WEST-
NORTHWEST ZONAL FLOW. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US...IS AFTER A COLD
WEEKEND WE WILL MODERATE QUITE A BIT INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL INTO THE
LOWER 30S NEXT TUES/WED.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING AT LEAST...AS THE FLOW TRIES TO HANG ON OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS DURING THE EVENING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS INLAND. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE DIPPING TOWARDS -10F SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
SHORTWAVE/S ZIPPING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER POSSIBLY ON WEDNESDAY. NOT CONFIDENT IN THE
TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE/S...AND HAVE JOINED WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES IN FORECASTING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALMOST EVERY
FORECAST PERIOD EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.

BOTTOM LINE...PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE LONG
TERM...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. AFTER SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER OVER THE WEEKEND WE MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOP. CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE TO IFR AT KMKG WHERE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM FRIDAY AND
IS FOLLOWED BY A GALE WATCH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY
DUE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY REACH GALE
FORCE AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO DEVELOP
WITH THE STRONG NW FLOW CAA AND FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND
CONTINUES AT MAPLE RAPIDS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP THE
ADVISORY AT THAT LOCATION.

THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS ON THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP SHOW
SMALL...THIN PIECES OF ICE FLOWING IN THE RIVER. A FEW RIVER
GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GET COLDER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE LATE IN THE WINTER
SEASON AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT ICE DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LONG PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ASIDE FROM ANY LOCAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THAT
OCCURS...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. EVEN THIS WILL NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RIVER FLUCTUATION DUE TO ICE IN THE EVENT THAT THICK ICE DEVELOPS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ044-
     057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-072.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...LAURENS





000
FXUS63 KGRR 111908
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
208 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SNOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END.  ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.  THE LULL IN THE SNOW WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND FLARING UP THE SNOW
AGAIN.  WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO INCREASE CAUSING BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  TRAVEL
IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF U.S. 131.  THE SNOW AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING BITTER
COLD...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH MORE SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 25 TO 30 NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TO BEST COORDINATE MESSAGING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LOCAL
MEDIA...WE WILL EXPIRE THE CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES SHORTLY.

HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL QUITE CONCERNED ABOUT THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE AND THERE IS ALREADY GOOD FORECAST CERTAINTY THAT VERY
SIMILAR RISKS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD BE REALIZED FOR SIMILAR
AREAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED AND COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WILL ALLOW THE HEADLINES TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE
FEELING IS THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THEM AT 10AM.  ANOTHER
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN
MORE HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

INVERSION LEVELS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN THIS MORNING AND THE THAT
TEND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN THE INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW BANDS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  AND AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST...FORCING THE MAIN BAND
INLAND AS IT WEAKENS.  BOTTOM LINE...LAKESHORE AREAS WILL SEE UP TO
ANOTHER 3 INCHES...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  THEN THE SNOW WEAKENS AND
PUSHES INLAND.  ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE
HEADLINE AREA.

TONIGHT WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW WITH INVERSIONS DROPPING AS LOW
AS 4K FEET.  HOWEVER AN ARCTIC FRONT AND IT/S UPPER WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT. SO EXPECT THE SNOW TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
09Z.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY...BUT THEN IT TURNS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131 SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT IT
SEEMS LIKE A 2-4 INCH TYPE SNOWFALL AS THE SNOW FLAKE SIZE BECOMES
SMALL INTO FRIDAY WITH THE DGZ NEAR THE GROUND...NOT ALLOWING FOR
MUCH ACCUMS.  HOWEVER EXPECT WE WILL NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT
AS THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.  GIVEN THE NEW SNOW
AND THE FRESH POWDERY SNOW WE HAVE ALREADY ON THE GROUND...
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CAUSE IMPACTS.

THE WIND AND SNOW SHOULD SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER
WIND CHILLS WILL STAY ZERO TO 10 BELOW IN SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PATTERN SHIFTS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS IN PLACE AND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IT SHIFTS TO A FLATTER WEST-
NORTHWEST ZONAL FLOW. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US...IS AFTER A COLD
WEEKEND WE WILL MODERATE QUITE A BIT INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL INTO THE
LOWER 30S NEXT TUES/WED.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING AT LEAST...AS THE FLOW TRIES TO HANG ON OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS DURING THE EVENING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS INLAND. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE DIPPING TOWARDS -10F SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
SHORTWAVE/S ZIPPING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER POSSIBLY ON WEDNESDAY. NOT CONFIDENT IN THE
TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE/S...AND HAVE JOINED WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES IN FORECASTING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALMOST EVERY
FORECAST PERIOD EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.

BOTTOM LINE...PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE LONG
TERM...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. AFTER SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER OVER THE WEEKEND WE MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOP. CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE TO IFR AT KMKG WHERE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM FRIDAY AND
IS FOLLOWED BY A GALE WATCH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY
DUE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY REACH GALE
FORCE AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO DEVELOP
WITH THE STRONG NW FLOW CAA AND FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND
CONTINUES AT MAPLE RAPIDS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP THE
ADVISORY AT THAT LOCATION.

THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS ON THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP SHOW
SMALL...THIN PIECES OF ICE FLOWING IN THE RIVER. A FEW RIVER
GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GET COLDER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE LATE IN THE WINTER
SEASON AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT ICE DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LONG PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ASIDE FROM ANY LOCAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THAT
OCCURS...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. EVEN THIS WILL NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RIVER FLUCTUATION DUE TO ICE IN THE EVENT THAT THICK ICE DEVELOPS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ044-
     057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-072.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...LAURENS





000
FXUS63 KGRR 111908
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
208 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SNOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END.  ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.  THE LULL IN THE SNOW WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND FLARING UP THE SNOW
AGAIN.  WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO INCREASE CAUSING BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  TRAVEL
IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF U.S. 131.  THE SNOW AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING BITTER
COLD...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH MORE SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 25 TO 30 NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TO BEST COORDINATE MESSAGING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LOCAL
MEDIA...WE WILL EXPIRE THE CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES SHORTLY.

HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL QUITE CONCERNED ABOUT THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE AND THERE IS ALREADY GOOD FORECAST CERTAINTY THAT VERY
SIMILAR RISKS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD BE REALIZED FOR SIMILAR
AREAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED AND COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WILL ALLOW THE HEADLINES TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE
FEELING IS THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THEM AT 10AM.  ANOTHER
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN
MORE HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

INVERSION LEVELS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN THIS MORNING AND THE THAT
TEND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN THE INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW BANDS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  AND AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST...FORCING THE MAIN BAND
INLAND AS IT WEAKENS.  BOTTOM LINE...LAKESHORE AREAS WILL SEE UP TO
ANOTHER 3 INCHES...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  THEN THE SNOW WEAKENS AND
PUSHES INLAND.  ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE
HEADLINE AREA.

TONIGHT WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW WITH INVERSIONS DROPPING AS LOW
AS 4K FEET.  HOWEVER AN ARCTIC FRONT AND IT/S UPPER WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT. SO EXPECT THE SNOW TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
09Z.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY...BUT THEN IT TURNS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131 SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT IT
SEEMS LIKE A 2-4 INCH TYPE SNOWFALL AS THE SNOW FLAKE SIZE BECOMES
SMALL INTO FRIDAY WITH THE DGZ NEAR THE GROUND...NOT ALLOWING FOR
MUCH ACCUMS.  HOWEVER EXPECT WE WILL NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT
AS THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.  GIVEN THE NEW SNOW
AND THE FRESH POWDERY SNOW WE HAVE ALREADY ON THE GROUND...
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CAUSE IMPACTS.

THE WIND AND SNOW SHOULD SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER
WIND CHILLS WILL STAY ZERO TO 10 BELOW IN SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PATTERN SHIFTS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS IN PLACE AND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IT SHIFTS TO A FLATTER WEST-
NORTHWEST ZONAL FLOW. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US...IS AFTER A COLD
WEEKEND WE WILL MODERATE QUITE A BIT INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL INTO THE
LOWER 30S NEXT TUES/WED.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING AT LEAST...AS THE FLOW TRIES TO HANG ON OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS DURING THE EVENING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS INLAND. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE DIPPING TOWARDS -10F SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
SHORTWAVE/S ZIPPING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER POSSIBLY ON WEDNESDAY. NOT CONFIDENT IN THE
TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE/S...AND HAVE JOINED WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES IN FORECASTING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALMOST EVERY
FORECAST PERIOD EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.

BOTTOM LINE...PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE LONG
TERM...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. AFTER SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER OVER THE WEEKEND WE MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOP. CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE TO IFR AT KMKG WHERE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM FRIDAY AND
IS FOLLOWED BY A GALE WATCH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY
DUE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY REACH GALE
FORCE AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO DEVELOP
WITH THE STRONG NW FLOW CAA AND FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND
CONTINUES AT MAPLE RAPIDS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP THE
ADVISORY AT THAT LOCATION.

THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS ON THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP SHOW
SMALL...THIN PIECES OF ICE FLOWING IN THE RIVER. A FEW RIVER
GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GET COLDER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE LATE IN THE WINTER
SEASON AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT ICE DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LONG PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ASIDE FROM ANY LOCAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THAT
OCCURS...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. EVEN THIS WILL NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RIVER FLUCTUATION DUE TO ICE IN THE EVENT THAT THICK ICE DEVELOPS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ044-
     057-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ037-038-043-050-056-072.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...LAURENS




000
FXUS63 KGRR 111716
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1216 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SNOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END.  ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.  THE LULL IN THE SNOW WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND FLARING UP THE SNOW
AGAIN.  WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO INCREASE CAUSING BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  TRAVEL
IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF U.S. 131.  THE SNOW AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING BITTER
COLD...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH MORE SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 25 TO 30 NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TO BEST COORDINATE MESSAGING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LOCAL
MEDIA...WE WILL EXPIRE THE CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES SHORTLY.

HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL QUITE CONCERNED ABOUT THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE AND THERE IS ALREADY GOOD FORECAST CERTAINTY THAT VERY
SIMILAR RISKS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD BE REALIZED FOR SIMILAR
AREAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED AND COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WILL ALLOW THE HEADLINES TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE
FEELING IS THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THEM AT 10AM.  ANOTHER
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN
MORE HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

INVERSION LEVELS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN THIS MORNING AND THE THAT
TEND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN THE INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW BANDS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  AND AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST...FORCING THE MAIN BAND
INLAND AS IT WEAKENS.  BOTTOM LINE...LAKESHORE AREAS WILL SEE UP TO
ANOTHER 3 INCHES...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  THEN THE SNOW WEAKENS AND
PUSHES INLAND.  ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE
HEADLINE AREA.

TONIGHT WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW WITH INVERSIONS DROPPING AS LOW
AS 4K FEET.  HOWEVER AN ARCTIC FRONT AND IT/S UPPER WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT. SO EXPECT THE SNOW TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
09Z.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY...BUT THEN IT TURNS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131 SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT IT
SEEMS LIKE A 2-4 INCH TYPE SNOWFALL AS THE SNOW FLAKE SIZE BECOMES
SMALL INTO FRIDAY WITH THE DGZ NEAR THE GROUND...NOT ALLOWING FOR
MUCH ACCUMS.  HOWEVER EXPECT WE WILL NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT
AS THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.  GIVEN THE NEW SNOW
AND THE FRESH POWDERY SNOW WE HAVE ALREADY ON THE GROUND...
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CAUSE IMPACTS.

THE WIND AND SNOW SHOULD SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER
WIND CHILLS WILL STAY ZERO TO 10 BELOW IN SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PATTERN SHIFTS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS IN PLACE AND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IT SHIFTS TO A FLATTER WEST-
NORTHWEST ZONAL FLOW. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US...IS AFTER A COLD
WEEKEND WE WILL MODERATE QUITE A BIT INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL INTO THE
LOWER 30S NEXT TUES/WED.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING AT LEAST...AS THE FLOW TRIES TO HANG ON OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS DURING THE EVENING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS INLAND. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE DIPPING TOWARDS -10F SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
SHORTWAVE/S ZIPPING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER POSSIBLY ON WEDNESDAY. NOT CONFIDENT IN THE
TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE/S...AND HAVE JOINED WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES IN FORECASTING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALMOST EVERY
FORECAST PERIOD EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.

BOTTOM LINE...PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE LONG
TERM...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. AFTER SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER OVER THE WEEKEND WE MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOP. CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE TO IFR AT KMKG WHERE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

GALES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THEN


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND
CONTINUES AT MAPLE RAPIDS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP THE
ADVISORY AT THAT LOCATION.

THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS ON THE GRAND RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP SHOW
SMALL...THIN PIECES OF ICE FLOWING IN THE RIVER. A FEW RIVER
GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GET COLDER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE LATE IN THE WINTER
SEASON AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT ICE DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LONG PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ASIDE FROM ANY LOCAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THAT
OCCURS...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. EVEN THIS WILL NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RIVER FLUCTUATION DUE TO ICE IN THE EVENT THAT THICK ICE DEVELOPS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK





000
FXUS63 KGRR 111608
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1108 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SNOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END.  ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.  THE LULL IN THE SNOW WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND FLARING UP THE SNOW
AGAIN.  WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO INCREASE CAUSING BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  TRAVEL
IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF U.S. 131.  THE SNOW AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING BITTER
COLD...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH MORE SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 25 TO 30 NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TO BEST COORDINATE MESSAGING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LOCAL
MEDIA...WE WILL EXPIRE THE CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES SHORTLY.

HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL QUITE CONCERNED ABOUT THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE AND THERE IS ALREADY GOOD FORECAST CERTAINTY THAT VERY
SIMILAR RISKS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD BE REALIZED FOR SIMILAR
AREAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED AND COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WILL ALLOW THE HEADLINES TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE
FEELING IS THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THEM AT 10AM.  ANOTHER
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN
MORE HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

INVERSION LEVELS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN THIS MORNING AND THE THAT
TEND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN THE INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW BANDS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  AND AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST...FORCING THE MAIN BAND
INLAND AS IT WEAKENS.  BOTTOM LINE...LAKESHORE AREAS WILL SEE UP TO
ANOTHER 3 INCHES...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  THEN THE SNOW WEAKENS AND
PUSHES INLAND.  ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE
HEADLINE AREA.

TONIGHT WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW WITH INVERSIONS DROPPING AS LOW
AS 4K FEET.  HOWEVER AN ARCTIC FRONT AND IT/S UPPER WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT. SO EXPECT THE SNOW TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
09Z.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY...BUT THEN IT TURNS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131 SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT IT
SEEMS LIKE A 2-4 INCH TYPE SNOWFALL AS THE SNOW FLAKE SIZE BECOMES
SMALL INTO FRIDAY WITH THE DGZ NEAR THE GROUND...NOT ALLOWING FOR
MUCH ACCUMS.  HOWEVER EXPECT WE WILL NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT
AS THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.  GIVEN THE NEW SNOW
AND THE FRESH POWDERY SNOW WE HAVE ALREADY ON THE GROUND...
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CAUSE IMPACTS.

THE WIND AND SNOW SHOULD SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER
WIND CHILLS WILL STAY ZERO TO 10 BELOW IN SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PATTERN SHIFTS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS IN PLACE AND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IT SHIFTS TO A FLATTER WEST-
NORTHWEST ZONAL FLOW. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US...IS AFTER A COLD
WEEKEND WE WILL MODERATE QUITE A BIT INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL INTO THE
LOWER 30S NEXT TUES/WED.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING AT LEAST...AS THE FLOW TRIES TO HANG ON OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS DURING THE EVENING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS INLAND. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE DIPPING TOWARDS -10F SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
SHORTWAVE/S ZIPPING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER POSSIBLY ON WEDNESDAY. NOT CONFIDENT IN THE
TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE/S...AND HAVE JOINED WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES IN FORECASTING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALMOST EVERY
FORECAST PERIOD EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.

BOTTOM LINE...PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE LONG
TERM...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. AFTER SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER OVER THE WEEKEND WE MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOP. CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE TO IFR AT KMKG WHERE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

GALES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THEN


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK





000
FXUS63 KGRR 111608
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1108 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SNOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END.  ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.  THE LULL IN THE SNOW WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND FLARING UP THE SNOW
AGAIN.  WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO INCREASE CAUSING BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  TRAVEL
IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF U.S. 131.  THE SNOW AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING BITTER
COLD...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH MORE SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 25 TO 30 NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TO BEST COORDINATE MESSAGING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LOCAL
MEDIA...WE WILL EXPIRE THE CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES SHORTLY.

HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL QUITE CONCERNED ABOUT THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE AND THERE IS ALREADY GOOD FORECAST CERTAINTY THAT VERY
SIMILAR RISKS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD BE REALIZED FOR SIMILAR
AREAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED AND COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WILL ALLOW THE HEADLINES TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE
FEELING IS THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THEM AT 10AM.  ANOTHER
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN
MORE HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

INVERSION LEVELS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN THIS MORNING AND THE THAT
TEND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN THE INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW BANDS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  AND AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST...FORCING THE MAIN BAND
INLAND AS IT WEAKENS.  BOTTOM LINE...LAKESHORE AREAS WILL SEE UP TO
ANOTHER 3 INCHES...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  THEN THE SNOW WEAKENS AND
PUSHES INLAND.  ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE
HEADLINE AREA.

TONIGHT WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW WITH INVERSIONS DROPPING AS LOW
AS 4K FEET.  HOWEVER AN ARCTIC FRONT AND IT/S UPPER WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT. SO EXPECT THE SNOW TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
09Z.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY...BUT THEN IT TURNS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131 SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT IT
SEEMS LIKE A 2-4 INCH TYPE SNOWFALL AS THE SNOW FLAKE SIZE BECOMES
SMALL INTO FRIDAY WITH THE DGZ NEAR THE GROUND...NOT ALLOWING FOR
MUCH ACCUMS.  HOWEVER EXPECT WE WILL NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT
AS THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.  GIVEN THE NEW SNOW
AND THE FRESH POWDERY SNOW WE HAVE ALREADY ON THE GROUND...
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CAUSE IMPACTS.

THE WIND AND SNOW SHOULD SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER
WIND CHILLS WILL STAY ZERO TO 10 BELOW IN SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PATTERN SHIFTS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS IN PLACE AND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IT SHIFTS TO A FLATTER WEST-
NORTHWEST ZONAL FLOW. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US...IS AFTER A COLD
WEEKEND WE WILL MODERATE QUITE A BIT INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL INTO THE
LOWER 30S NEXT TUES/WED.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING AT LEAST...AS THE FLOW TRIES TO HANG ON OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS DURING THE EVENING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS INLAND. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE DIPPING TOWARDS -10F SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
SHORTWAVE/S ZIPPING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER POSSIBLY ON WEDNESDAY. NOT CONFIDENT IN THE
TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE/S...AND HAVE JOINED WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES IN FORECASTING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALMOST EVERY
FORECAST PERIOD EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.

BOTTOM LINE...PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE LONG
TERM...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. AFTER SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER OVER THE WEEKEND WE MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOP. CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE TO IFR AT KMKG WHERE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

GALES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THEN


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK





000
FXUS63 KGRR 111608
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1108 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SNOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END.  ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.  THE LULL IN THE SNOW WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND FLARING UP THE SNOW
AGAIN.  WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO INCREASE CAUSING BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  TRAVEL
IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF U.S. 131.  THE SNOW AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING BITTER
COLD...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH MORE SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 25 TO 30 NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TO BEST COORDINATE MESSAGING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LOCAL
MEDIA...WE WILL EXPIRE THE CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES SHORTLY.

HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL QUITE CONCERNED ABOUT THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE AND THERE IS ALREADY GOOD FORECAST CERTAINTY THAT VERY
SIMILAR RISKS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD BE REALIZED FOR SIMILAR
AREAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED AND COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WILL ALLOW THE HEADLINES TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE
FEELING IS THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THEM AT 10AM.  ANOTHER
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN
MORE HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

INVERSION LEVELS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN THIS MORNING AND THE THAT
TEND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN THE INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW BANDS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  AND AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST...FORCING THE MAIN BAND
INLAND AS IT WEAKENS.  BOTTOM LINE...LAKESHORE AREAS WILL SEE UP TO
ANOTHER 3 INCHES...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  THEN THE SNOW WEAKENS AND
PUSHES INLAND.  ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE
HEADLINE AREA.

TONIGHT WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW WITH INVERSIONS DROPPING AS LOW
AS 4K FEET.  HOWEVER AN ARCTIC FRONT AND IT/S UPPER WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT. SO EXPECT THE SNOW TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
09Z.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY...BUT THEN IT TURNS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131 SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT IT
SEEMS LIKE A 2-4 INCH TYPE SNOWFALL AS THE SNOW FLAKE SIZE BECOMES
SMALL INTO FRIDAY WITH THE DGZ NEAR THE GROUND...NOT ALLOWING FOR
MUCH ACCUMS.  HOWEVER EXPECT WE WILL NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT
AS THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.  GIVEN THE NEW SNOW
AND THE FRESH POWDERY SNOW WE HAVE ALREADY ON THE GROUND...
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CAUSE IMPACTS.

THE WIND AND SNOW SHOULD SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER
WIND CHILLS WILL STAY ZERO TO 10 BELOW IN SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PATTERN SHIFTS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS IN PLACE AND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IT SHIFTS TO A FLATTER WEST-
NORTHWEST ZONAL FLOW. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US...IS AFTER A COLD
WEEKEND WE WILL MODERATE QUITE A BIT INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL INTO THE
LOWER 30S NEXT TUES/WED.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING AT LEAST...AS THE FLOW TRIES TO HANG ON OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS DURING THE EVENING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS INLAND. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE DIPPING TOWARDS -10F SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
SHORTWAVE/S ZIPPING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER POSSIBLY ON WEDNESDAY. NOT CONFIDENT IN THE
TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE/S...AND HAVE JOINED WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES IN FORECASTING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALMOST EVERY
FORECAST PERIOD EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.

BOTTOM LINE...PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE LONG
TERM...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. AFTER SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER OVER THE WEEKEND WE MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOP. CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE TO IFR AT KMKG WHERE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

GALES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THEN


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 111450
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
950 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SNOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END.  ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.  THE LULL IN THE SNOW WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND FLARING UP THE SNOW
AGAIN.  WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO INCREASE CAUSING BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  TRAVEL
IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF U.S. 131.  THE SNOW AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING BITTER
COLD...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH MORE SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 25 TO 30 NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TO BEST COORDINATE MESSAGING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LOCAL
MEDIA...WE WILL EXPIRE THE CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES SHORTLY.

HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL QUITE CONCERNED ABOUT THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE AND THERE IS ALREADY GOOD FORECAST CERTAINTY THAT VERY
SIMILAR RISKS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD BE REALIZED FOR SIMILAR
AREAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED AND COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WILL ALLOW THE HEADLINES TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE
FEELING IS THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THEM AT 10AM.  ANOTHER
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN
MORE HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

INVERSION LEVELS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN THIS MORNING AND THE THAT
TEND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN THE INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW BANDS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  AND AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST...FORCING THE MAIN BAND
INLAND AS IT WEAKENS.  BOTTOM LINE...LAKESHORE AREAS WILL SEE UP TO
ANOTHER 3 INCHES...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  THEN THE SNOW WEAKENS AND
PUSHES INLAND.  ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE
HEADLINE AREA.

TONIGHT WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW WITH INVERSIONS DROPPING AS LOW
AS 4K FEET.  HOWEVER AN ARCTIC FRONT AND IT/S UPPER WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT. SO EXPECT THE SNOW TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
09Z.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY...BUT THEN IT TURNS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131 SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT IT
SEEMS LIKE A 2-4 INCH TYPE SNOWFALL AS THE SNOW FLAKE SIZE BECOMES
SMALL INTO FRIDAY WITH THE DGZ NEAR THE GROUND...NOT ALLOWING FOR
MUCH ACCUMS.  HOWEVER EXPECT WE WILL NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT
AS THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.  GIVEN THE NEW SNOW
AND THE FRESH POWDERY SNOW WE HAVE ALREADY ON THE GROUND...
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CAUSE IMPACTS.

THE WIND AND SNOW SHOULD SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER
WIND CHILLS WILL STAY ZERO TO 10 BELOW IN SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PATTERN SHIFTS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS IN PLACE AND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IT SHIFTS TO A FLATTER WEST-
NORTHWEST ZONAL FLOW. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US...IS AFTER A COLD
WEEKEND WE WILL MODERATE QUITE A BIT INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL INTO THE
LOWER 30S NEXT TUES/WED.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING AT LEAST...AS THE FLOW TRIES TO HANG ON OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS DURING THE EVENING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS INLAND. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE DIPPING TOWARDS -10F SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
SHORTWAVE/S ZIPPING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER POSSIBLY ON WEDNESDAY. NOT CONFIDENT IN THE
TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE/S...AND HAVE JOINED WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES IN FORECASTING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALMOST EVERY
FORECAST PERIOD EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.

BOTTOM LINE...PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE LONG
TERM...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. AFTER SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER OVER THE WEEKEND WE MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT BOTH ENDS OF THE TAF
PERIOD...THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z. THESE BAND
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND TODAY AS THE FLOW GOES MORE WESTERLY
FROM ITS CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST IT WILL PUSH THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO PLACES LIKE KMKG AND
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THERE AT TIMES THIS MORNING. FURTHER
INLAND TOWARDS KLAN AND KJXN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES
AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED.

BOTTOM LINE INTERVALS OF SCT-BKN CONDITIONS AS THE CLOUDS PUSH
INLAND OFF THE LAKE TODAY. WEATHER DETERIORATES LATE TONIGHT AS
THE LAKE SNOWS REGENERATE. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARDS
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 8-12 KNOT RANGE MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST TODAY AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

GALES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THEN


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ056-064-
     071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037-
     038-043-050-072.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 111450
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
950 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SNOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END.  ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.  THE LULL IN THE SNOW WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND FLARING UP THE SNOW
AGAIN.  WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO INCREASE CAUSING BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  TRAVEL
IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF U.S. 131.  THE SNOW AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING BITTER
COLD...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH MORE SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 25 TO 30 NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TO BEST COORDINATE MESSAGING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LOCAL
MEDIA...WE WILL EXPIRE THE CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES SHORTLY.

HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL QUITE CONCERNED ABOUT THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE AND THERE IS ALREADY GOOD FORECAST CERTAINTY THAT VERY
SIMILAR RISKS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD BE REALIZED FOR SIMILAR
AREAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED AND COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WILL ALLOW THE HEADLINES TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE
FEELING IS THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THEM AT 10AM.  ANOTHER
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN
MORE HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

INVERSION LEVELS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN THIS MORNING AND THE THAT
TEND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN THE INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW BANDS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  AND AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST...FORCING THE MAIN BAND
INLAND AS IT WEAKENS.  BOTTOM LINE...LAKESHORE AREAS WILL SEE UP TO
ANOTHER 3 INCHES...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  THEN THE SNOW WEAKENS AND
PUSHES INLAND.  ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE
HEADLINE AREA.

TONIGHT WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW WITH INVERSIONS DROPPING AS LOW
AS 4K FEET.  HOWEVER AN ARCTIC FRONT AND IT/S UPPER WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT. SO EXPECT THE SNOW TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
09Z.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY...BUT THEN IT TURNS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131 SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT IT
SEEMS LIKE A 2-4 INCH TYPE SNOWFALL AS THE SNOW FLAKE SIZE BECOMES
SMALL INTO FRIDAY WITH THE DGZ NEAR THE GROUND...NOT ALLOWING FOR
MUCH ACCUMS.  HOWEVER EXPECT WE WILL NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT
AS THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.  GIVEN THE NEW SNOW
AND THE FRESH POWDERY SNOW WE HAVE ALREADY ON THE GROUND...
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CAUSE IMPACTS.

THE WIND AND SNOW SHOULD SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER
WIND CHILLS WILL STAY ZERO TO 10 BELOW IN SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PATTERN SHIFTS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS IN PLACE AND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IT SHIFTS TO A FLATTER WEST-
NORTHWEST ZONAL FLOW. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US...IS AFTER A COLD
WEEKEND WE WILL MODERATE QUITE A BIT INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL INTO THE
LOWER 30S NEXT TUES/WED.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING AT LEAST...AS THE FLOW TRIES TO HANG ON OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS DURING THE EVENING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS INLAND. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE DIPPING TOWARDS -10F SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
SHORTWAVE/S ZIPPING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER POSSIBLY ON WEDNESDAY. NOT CONFIDENT IN THE
TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE/S...AND HAVE JOINED WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES IN FORECASTING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALMOST EVERY
FORECAST PERIOD EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.

BOTTOM LINE...PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE LONG
TERM...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. AFTER SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER OVER THE WEEKEND WE MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT BOTH ENDS OF THE TAF
PERIOD...THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z. THESE BAND
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND TODAY AS THE FLOW GOES MORE WESTERLY
FROM ITS CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST IT WILL PUSH THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO PLACES LIKE KMKG AND
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THERE AT TIMES THIS MORNING. FURTHER
INLAND TOWARDS KLAN AND KJXN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES
AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED.

BOTTOM LINE INTERVALS OF SCT-BKN CONDITIONS AS THE CLOUDS PUSH
INLAND OFF THE LAKE TODAY. WEATHER DETERIORATES LATE TONIGHT AS
THE LAKE SNOWS REGENERATE. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARDS
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 8-12 KNOT RANGE MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST TODAY AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

GALES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THEN


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ056-064-
     071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037-
     038-043-050-072.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK





000
FXUS63 KGRR 111450
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
950 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SNOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END.  ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.  THE LULL IN THE SNOW WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND FLARING UP THE SNOW
AGAIN.  WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO INCREASE CAUSING BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  TRAVEL
IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF U.S. 131.  THE SNOW AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING BITTER
COLD...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH MORE SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 25 TO 30 NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TO BEST COORDINATE MESSAGING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LOCAL
MEDIA...WE WILL EXPIRE THE CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES SHORTLY.

HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL QUITE CONCERNED ABOUT THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE AND THERE IS ALREADY GOOD FORECAST CERTAINTY THAT VERY
SIMILAR RISKS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD BE REALIZED FOR SIMILAR
AREAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED AND COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WILL ALLOW THE HEADLINES TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE
FEELING IS THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THEM AT 10AM.  ANOTHER
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN
MORE HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

INVERSION LEVELS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN THIS MORNING AND THE THAT
TEND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN THE INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW BANDS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  AND AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST...FORCING THE MAIN BAND
INLAND AS IT WEAKENS.  BOTTOM LINE...LAKESHORE AREAS WILL SEE UP TO
ANOTHER 3 INCHES...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  THEN THE SNOW WEAKENS AND
PUSHES INLAND.  ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE
HEADLINE AREA.

TONIGHT WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW WITH INVERSIONS DROPPING AS LOW
AS 4K FEET.  HOWEVER AN ARCTIC FRONT AND IT/S UPPER WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT. SO EXPECT THE SNOW TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
09Z.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY...BUT THEN IT TURNS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131 SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT IT
SEEMS LIKE A 2-4 INCH TYPE SNOWFALL AS THE SNOW FLAKE SIZE BECOMES
SMALL INTO FRIDAY WITH THE DGZ NEAR THE GROUND...NOT ALLOWING FOR
MUCH ACCUMS.  HOWEVER EXPECT WE WILL NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT
AS THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.  GIVEN THE NEW SNOW
AND THE FRESH POWDERY SNOW WE HAVE ALREADY ON THE GROUND...
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CAUSE IMPACTS.

THE WIND AND SNOW SHOULD SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER
WIND CHILLS WILL STAY ZERO TO 10 BELOW IN SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PATTERN SHIFTS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS IN PLACE AND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IT SHIFTS TO A FLATTER WEST-
NORTHWEST ZONAL FLOW. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US...IS AFTER A COLD
WEEKEND WE WILL MODERATE QUITE A BIT INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL INTO THE
LOWER 30S NEXT TUES/WED.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING AT LEAST...AS THE FLOW TRIES TO HANG ON OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS DURING THE EVENING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS INLAND. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE DIPPING TOWARDS -10F SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
SHORTWAVE/S ZIPPING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER POSSIBLY ON WEDNESDAY. NOT CONFIDENT IN THE
TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE/S...AND HAVE JOINED WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES IN FORECASTING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALMOST EVERY
FORECAST PERIOD EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.

BOTTOM LINE...PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE LONG
TERM...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. AFTER SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER OVER THE WEEKEND WE MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT BOTH ENDS OF THE TAF
PERIOD...THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z. THESE BAND
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND TODAY AS THE FLOW GOES MORE WESTERLY
FROM ITS CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST IT WILL PUSH THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO PLACES LIKE KMKG AND
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THERE AT TIMES THIS MORNING. FURTHER
INLAND TOWARDS KLAN AND KJXN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES
AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED.

BOTTOM LINE INTERVALS OF SCT-BKN CONDITIONS AS THE CLOUDS PUSH
INLAND OFF THE LAKE TODAY. WEATHER DETERIORATES LATE TONIGHT AS
THE LAKE SNOWS REGENERATE. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARDS
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 8-12 KNOT RANGE MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST TODAY AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

GALES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THEN


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ056-064-
     071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037-
     038-043-050-072.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK





000
FXUS63 KGRR 111158
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
658 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SNOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END.  ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.  THE LULL IN THE SNOW WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND FLARING UP THE SNOW
AGAIN.  WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO INCREASE CAUSING BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  TRAVEL
IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF U.S. 131.  THE SNOW AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING BITTER
COLD...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH MORE SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 25 TO 30 NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WILL ALLOW THE HEADLINES TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE
FEELING IS THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THEM AT 10AM.  ANOTHER
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN
MORE HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

INVERSION LEVELS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN THIS MORNING AND THE THAT
TEND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN THE INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW BANDS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  AND AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST...FORCING THE MAIN BAND
INLAND AS IT WEAKENS.  BOTTOM LINE...LAKESHORE AREAS WILL SEE UP TO
ANOTHER 3 INCHES...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  THEN THE SNOW WEAKENS AND
PUSHES INLAND.  ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE
HEADLINE AREA.

TONIGHT WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW WITH INVERSIONS DROPPING AS LOW
AS 4K FEET.  HOWEVER AN ARCTIC FRONT AND IT/S UPPER WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT. SO EXPECT THE SNOW TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
09Z.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY...BUT THEN IT TURNS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131 SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT IT
SEEMS LIKE A 2-4 INCH TYPE SNOWFALL AS THE SNOW FLAKE SIZE BECOMES
SMALL INTO FRIDAY WITH THE DGZ NEAR THE GROUND...NOT ALLOWING FOR
MUCH ACCUMS.  HOWEVER EXPECT WE WILL NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT
AS THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.  GIVEN THE NEW SNOW
AND THE FRESH POWDERY SNOW WE HAVE ALREADY ON THE GROUND...
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CAUSE IMPACTS.

THE WIND AND SNOW SHOULD SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER
WIND CHILLS WILL STAY ZERO TO 10 BELOW IN SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PATTERN SHIFTS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS IN PLACE AND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IT SHIFTS TO A FLATTER WEST-
NORTHWEST ZONAL FLOW. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US...IS AFTER A COLD
WEEKEND WE WILL MODERATE QUITE A BIT INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL INTO THE
LOWER 30S NEXT TUES/WED.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING AT LEAST...AS THE FLOW TRIES TO HANG ON OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS DURING THE EVENING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS INLAND. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE DIPPING TOWARDS -10F SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
SHORTWAVE/S ZIPPING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER POSSIBLY ON WEDNESDAY. NOT CONFIDENT IN THE
TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE/S...AND HAVE JOINED WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES IN FORECASTING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALMOST EVERY
FORECAST PERIOD EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.

BOTTOM LINE...PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE LONG
TERM...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. AFTER SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER OVER THE WEEKEND WE MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT BOTH ENDS OF THE TAF
PERIOD...THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z. THESE BAND
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND TODAY AS THE FLOW GOES MORE WESTERLY
FROM ITS CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST IT WILL PUSH THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO PLACES LIKE KMKG AND
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THERE AT TIMES THIS MORNING. FURTHER
INLAND TOWARDS KLAN AND KJXN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES
AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED.

BOTTOM LINE INTERVALS OF SCT-BKN CONDITIONS AS THE CLOUDS PUSH
INLAND OFF THE LAKE TODAY. WEATHER DETERIORATES LATE TONIGHT AS
THE LAKE SNOWS REGENERATE. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARDS
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 8-12 KNOT RANGE MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST TODAY AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

GALES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THEN


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ056-064-
     071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037-
     038-043-050-072.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 111158
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
658 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SNOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END.  ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.  THE LULL IN THE SNOW WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND FLARING UP THE SNOW
AGAIN.  WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO INCREASE CAUSING BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  TRAVEL
IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF U.S. 131.  THE SNOW AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING BITTER
COLD...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH MORE SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 25 TO 30 NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WILL ALLOW THE HEADLINES TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE
FEELING IS THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THEM AT 10AM.  ANOTHER
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN
MORE HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

INVERSION LEVELS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN THIS MORNING AND THE THAT
TEND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN THE INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW BANDS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  AND AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST...FORCING THE MAIN BAND
INLAND AS IT WEAKENS.  BOTTOM LINE...LAKESHORE AREAS WILL SEE UP TO
ANOTHER 3 INCHES...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  THEN THE SNOW WEAKENS AND
PUSHES INLAND.  ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE
HEADLINE AREA.

TONIGHT WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW WITH INVERSIONS DROPPING AS LOW
AS 4K FEET.  HOWEVER AN ARCTIC FRONT AND IT/S UPPER WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT. SO EXPECT THE SNOW TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
09Z.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY...BUT THEN IT TURNS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131 SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT IT
SEEMS LIKE A 2-4 INCH TYPE SNOWFALL AS THE SNOW FLAKE SIZE BECOMES
SMALL INTO FRIDAY WITH THE DGZ NEAR THE GROUND...NOT ALLOWING FOR
MUCH ACCUMS.  HOWEVER EXPECT WE WILL NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT
AS THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.  GIVEN THE NEW SNOW
AND THE FRESH POWDERY SNOW WE HAVE ALREADY ON THE GROUND...
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CAUSE IMPACTS.

THE WIND AND SNOW SHOULD SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER
WIND CHILLS WILL STAY ZERO TO 10 BELOW IN SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PATTERN SHIFTS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS IN PLACE AND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IT SHIFTS TO A FLATTER WEST-
NORTHWEST ZONAL FLOW. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US...IS AFTER A COLD
WEEKEND WE WILL MODERATE QUITE A BIT INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL INTO THE
LOWER 30S NEXT TUES/WED.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING AT LEAST...AS THE FLOW TRIES TO HANG ON OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS DURING THE EVENING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS INLAND. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE DIPPING TOWARDS -10F SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
SHORTWAVE/S ZIPPING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER POSSIBLY ON WEDNESDAY. NOT CONFIDENT IN THE
TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE/S...AND HAVE JOINED WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES IN FORECASTING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALMOST EVERY
FORECAST PERIOD EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.

BOTTOM LINE...PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE LONG
TERM...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. AFTER SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER OVER THE WEEKEND WE MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT BOTH ENDS OF THE TAF
PERIOD...THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z. THESE BAND
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND TODAY AS THE FLOW GOES MORE WESTERLY
FROM ITS CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST IT WILL PUSH THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO PLACES LIKE KMKG AND
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THERE AT TIMES THIS MORNING. FURTHER
INLAND TOWARDS KLAN AND KJXN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES
AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED.

BOTTOM LINE INTERVALS OF SCT-BKN CONDITIONS AS THE CLOUDS PUSH
INLAND OFF THE LAKE TODAY. WEATHER DETERIORATES LATE TONIGHT AS
THE LAKE SNOWS REGENERATE. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARDS
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 8-12 KNOT RANGE MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST TODAY AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

GALES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THEN


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ056-064-
     071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037-
     038-043-050-072.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK





000
FXUS63 KGRR 110830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SNOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END.  ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.  THE LULL IN THE SNOW WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND FLARING UP THE SNOW
AGAIN.  WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO INCREASE CAUSING BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  TRAVEL
IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF U.S. 131.  THE SNOW AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING BITTER
COLD...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH MORE SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 25 TO 30 NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WILL ALLOW THE HEADLINES TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE
FEELING IS THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THEM AT 10AM.  ANOTHER
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN
MORE HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

INVERSION LEVELS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN THIS MORNING AND THE THAT
TEND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN THE INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW BANDS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  AND AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST...FORCING THE MAIN BAND
INLAND AS IT WEAKENS.  BOTTOM LINE...LAKESHORE AREAS WILL SEE UP TO
ANOTHER 3 INCHES...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  THEN THE SNOW WEAKENS AND
PUSHES INLAND.  ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE
HEADLINE AREA.

TONIGHT WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW WITH INVERSIONS DROPPING AS LOW
AS 4K FEET.  HOWEVER AN ARCTIC FRONT AND IT/S UPPER WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT. SO EXPECT THE SNOW TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
09Z.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY...BUT THEN IT TURNS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131 SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT IT
SEEMS LIKE A 2-4 INCH TYPE SNOWFALL AS THE SNOW FLAKE SIZE BECOMES
SMALL INTO FRIDAY WITH THE DGZ NEAR THE GROUND...NOT ALLOWING FOR
MUCH ACCUMS.  HOWEVER EXPECT WE WILL NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT
AS THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.  GIVEN THE NEW SNOW
AND THE FRESH POWDERY SNOW WE HAVE ALREADY ON THE GROUND...
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CAUSE IMPACTS.

THE WIND AND SNOW SHOULD SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER
WIND CHILLS WILL STAY ZERO TO 10 BELOW IN SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PATTERN SHIFTS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS IN PLACE AND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IT SHIFTS TO A FLATTER WEST-
NORTHWEST ZONAL FLOW. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US...IS AFTER A COLD
WEEKEND WE WILL MODERATE QUITE A BIT INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL INTO THE
LOWER 30S NEXT TUES/WED.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING AT LEAST...AS THE FLOW TRIES TO HANG ON OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS DURING THE EVENING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS INLAND. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE DIPPING TOWARDS -10F SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
SHORTWAVE/S ZIPPING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER POSSIBLY ON WEDNESDAY. NOT CONFIDENT IN THE
TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE/S...AND HAVE JOINED WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES IN FORECASTING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALMOST EVERY
FORECAST PERIOD EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.

BOTTOM LINE...PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE LONG
TERM...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. AFTER SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER OVER THE WEEKEND WE MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LK MI SHORELINE. MKG COULD SEE
SOME BRIEF DROPS IN VSBYS... BUT EVEN THERE THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS
SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD BACK INLAND
AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE TAF
SITES SHOULD BECOME MVFR AS THIS OCCURS ALTHOUGH SOME IFR VSBYS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AT MKG AND AZO.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016


GALES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THEN

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ056-064-
     071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037-
     038-043-050-072.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK




000
FXUS63 KGRR 110830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SNOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END.  ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.  THE LULL IN THE SNOW WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND FLARING UP THE SNOW
AGAIN.  WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO INCREASE CAUSING BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  TRAVEL
IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF U.S. 131.  THE SNOW AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING BITTER
COLD...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH MORE SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 25 TO 30 NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WILL ALLOW THE HEADLINES TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE
FEELING IS THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THEM AT 10AM.  ANOTHER
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN
MORE HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

INVERSION LEVELS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN THIS MORNING AND THE THAT
TEND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN THE INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW BANDS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  AND AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST...FORCING THE MAIN BAND
INLAND AS IT WEAKENS.  BOTTOM LINE...LAKESHORE AREAS WILL SEE UP TO
ANOTHER 3 INCHES...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  THEN THE SNOW WEAKENS AND
PUSHES INLAND.  ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE
HEADLINE AREA.

TONIGHT WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW WITH INVERSIONS DROPPING AS LOW
AS 4K FEET.  HOWEVER AN ARCTIC FRONT AND IT/S UPPER WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT. SO EXPECT THE SNOW TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
09Z.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY...BUT THEN IT TURNS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131 SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT IT
SEEMS LIKE A 2-4 INCH TYPE SNOWFALL AS THE SNOW FLAKE SIZE BECOMES
SMALL INTO FRIDAY WITH THE DGZ NEAR THE GROUND...NOT ALLOWING FOR
MUCH ACCUMS.  HOWEVER EXPECT WE WILL NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT
AS THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.  GIVEN THE NEW SNOW
AND THE FRESH POWDERY SNOW WE HAVE ALREADY ON THE GROUND...
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CAUSE IMPACTS.

THE WIND AND SNOW SHOULD SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER
WIND CHILLS WILL STAY ZERO TO 10 BELOW IN SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PATTERN SHIFTS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS IN PLACE AND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IT SHIFTS TO A FLATTER WEST-
NORTHWEST ZONAL FLOW. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US...IS AFTER A COLD
WEEKEND WE WILL MODERATE QUITE A BIT INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL INTO THE
LOWER 30S NEXT TUES/WED.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING AT LEAST...AS THE FLOW TRIES TO HANG ON OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS DURING THE EVENING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS INLAND. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE DIPPING TOWARDS -10F SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
SHORTWAVE/S ZIPPING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER POSSIBLY ON WEDNESDAY. NOT CONFIDENT IN THE
TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE/S...AND HAVE JOINED WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES IN FORECASTING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALMOST EVERY
FORECAST PERIOD EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.

BOTTOM LINE...PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE LONG
TERM...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. AFTER SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER OVER THE WEEKEND WE MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LK MI SHORELINE. MKG COULD SEE
SOME BRIEF DROPS IN VSBYS... BUT EVEN THERE THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS
SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD BACK INLAND
AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE TAF
SITES SHOULD BECOME MVFR AS THIS OCCURS ALTHOUGH SOME IFR VSBYS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AT MKG AND AZO.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016


GALES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THEN

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ056-064-
     071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037-
     038-043-050-072.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK





000
FXUS63 KGRR 110830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SNOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END.  ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.  THE LULL IN THE SNOW WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND FLARING UP THE SNOW
AGAIN.  WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO INCREASE CAUSING BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  TRAVEL
IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF U.S. 131.  THE SNOW AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING BITTER
COLD...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH MORE SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 25 TO 30 NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WILL ALLOW THE HEADLINES TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE
FEELING IS THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THEM AT 10AM.  ANOTHER
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN
MORE HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

INVERSION LEVELS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN THIS MORNING AND THE THAT
TEND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN THE INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW BANDS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  AND AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST...FORCING THE MAIN BAND
INLAND AS IT WEAKENS.  BOTTOM LINE...LAKESHORE AREAS WILL SEE UP TO
ANOTHER 3 INCHES...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  THEN THE SNOW WEAKENS AND
PUSHES INLAND.  ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE
HEADLINE AREA.

TONIGHT WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW WITH INVERSIONS DROPPING AS LOW
AS 4K FEET.  HOWEVER AN ARCTIC FRONT AND IT/S UPPER WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT. SO EXPECT THE SNOW TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
09Z.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY...BUT THEN IT TURNS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131 SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT IT
SEEMS LIKE A 2-4 INCH TYPE SNOWFALL AS THE SNOW FLAKE SIZE BECOMES
SMALL INTO FRIDAY WITH THE DGZ NEAR THE GROUND...NOT ALLOWING FOR
MUCH ACCUMS.  HOWEVER EXPECT WE WILL NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT
AS THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.  GIVEN THE NEW SNOW
AND THE FRESH POWDERY SNOW WE HAVE ALREADY ON THE GROUND...
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CAUSE IMPACTS.

THE WIND AND SNOW SHOULD SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER
WIND CHILLS WILL STAY ZERO TO 10 BELOW IN SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PATTERN SHIFTS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS IN PLACE AND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IT SHIFTS TO A FLATTER WEST-
NORTHWEST ZONAL FLOW. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US...IS AFTER A COLD
WEEKEND WE WILL MODERATE QUITE A BIT INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL INTO THE
LOWER 30S NEXT TUES/WED.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING AT LEAST...AS THE FLOW TRIES TO HANG ON OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS DURING THE EVENING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS INLAND. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE DIPPING TOWARDS -10F SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
SHORTWAVE/S ZIPPING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER POSSIBLY ON WEDNESDAY. NOT CONFIDENT IN THE
TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE/S...AND HAVE JOINED WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES IN FORECASTING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALMOST EVERY
FORECAST PERIOD EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.

BOTTOM LINE...PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE LONG
TERM...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. AFTER SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER OVER THE WEEKEND WE MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LK MI SHORELINE. MKG COULD SEE
SOME BRIEF DROPS IN VSBYS... BUT EVEN THERE THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS
SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD BACK INLAND
AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE TAF
SITES SHOULD BECOME MVFR AS THIS OCCURS ALTHOUGH SOME IFR VSBYS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AT MKG AND AZO.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016


GALES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THEN

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ056-064-
     071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037-
     038-043-050-072.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK





000
FXUS63 KGRR 110454
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1154 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
A LARGE POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER MICHIGAN ON
SUNDAY DIMINISHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER BUT IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COLD. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

WILL REALIGN THE HEADLINES...KEEPING JUST THE SW PORTION OF THE
CWA IN THE WARNING.

LAND BREEZE EFFECTS SHOULD KICK IN THROUGH THE NIGHT...KEEPING
THE MAIN SNOW BANDS OFFSHORE AND THEN MOVING INLAND OVER SW OTTAWA
AND INTO ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES

WILL DOWNGRADE THE REST OF THE COUNTIES TO AN ADVISORY AS LESS
INTENSE SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THESE REGION.

ALSO OF LESS IMPACT WILL BE THE WIND OVERNIGHT AS IT WILL ONLY
STAY AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NO CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THURSDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALL AS DOES THE MOISTURE DEPTH. THE ARCTIC FRONT COMING THROUGH
ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT
THE ENTIRE CWA AS IT COMES THROUGH. THEN WE GO BACK TO NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON MOVES IN.

LAST WEEK IN MY DISCUSSIONS I QUESTIONED IF THE MJO BEING IN
PHASE 4 TO 5 (WARM FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES) OR THE
STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT (COLD FOR LOWER MICHIGAN) MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM NORTHERN ASIA WOULD BE ABLE TO TRUMP THE IMPACT OF
THE MJO. WELL...CLEARLY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
WINTER THIS WEEK...THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION THE STRATOSPHERIC
WARMING EVENT DID INDEED TAKE PRECEDENCE OVER THE MJO FOR OUR
AREA.

AS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT THAT IS ONGOING THE SUN HAS CAUSED
THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR. ONCE THE SUN SETS THEY
WILL BECOME LESS SO AND BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE. IT
IS DURING THE NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS FROM
WHAT REMAINS OF THIS EVENT. ALL THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
STRONG LIFT IN THE DGZ NEAR THE LAKE SHORE AS THE COLDEST AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION IN MY MIND WE HAVE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL YET TO SEE. THUS I KEEP THE HEADLINES AS IS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT THE LIKELY COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL
AFFECT THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BEFORE WE SEE A MODERATION IN TEMPS
AND A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKE SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEK.

WE WILL HAVE SEEN THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE COMPROMISED ON
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FOR SAT. IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE
NNW AND SHIFTING TO THE NNE BY SAT NIGHT. THIS OCCURS AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN FAIRLY QUICK AND THE UPPER JET LIFTING NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT TO THE LAKESHORE ON SAT...AND
THEN SHIFT IT OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT
CLEARING SKIES FOR SAT NIGHT AND LOWS HAVING A GOOD CHC OF GOING
BELOW ZERO.

WE WILL THEN SEE TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BEGINNING ON SUN AND
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THU. THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL FLATTEN
OUT A BIT ONCE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND KICKS EAST. THIS WILL
BRING A COUPLE OF TROUGHS THROUGH THE AREA. ONE LOOKS TO MOVE IN
STARTING LATE SUN INTO MON...AND ANOTHER LOOKS TO MOVE IN TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THE TIMING ON THESE SMALLER WAVES IS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC
AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN. FOR NOW WE HAVE
GONE WITH PCPN CHCS FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED AND MODERATING TEMPS
INTO THE 30S.

IT APPEARS THE BIGGER SYSTEM POISED TO THE AFFECT THE SE U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH AS THE SRN STREAM DIGS FAIRLY
STRONG...AND WITH OUR ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. WE WILL WATCH THE TRENDS
WITH THIS...IN CASE IT WERE TO APPROACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LK MI SHORELINE. MKG COULD SEE
SOME BRIEF DROPS IN VSBYS... BUT EVEN THERE THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS
SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD BACK INLAND
AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE TAF
SITES SHOULD BECOME MVFR AS THIS OCCURS ALTHOUGH SOME IFR VSBYS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AT MKG AND AZO.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MARINE HEADLINES FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL COVER THINGS WELL THROUGH THU MORNING
BEFORE WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH.

THE NEXT SET OF HEADLINES NEEDED WILL LIKELY COME BEGINNING FOR
FRIDAY AND LAST INTO SAT WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ056-064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-050-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KGRR 110250
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
950 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
A LARGE POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER MICHIGAN ON
SUNDAY DIMINISHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER BUT IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COLD. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

WILL REALIGN THE HEADLINES...KEEPING JUST THE SW PORTION OF THE
CWA IN THE WARNING.

LAND BREEZE EFFECTS SHOULD KICK IN THROUGH THE NIGHT...KEEPING
THE MAIN SNOW BANDS OFFSHORE AND THEN MOVING INLAND OVER SW OTTAWA
AND INTO ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES

WILL DOWNGRADE THE REST OF THE COUNTIES TO AN ADVISORY AS LESS
INTENSE SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THESE REGION.

ALSO OF LESS IMPACT WILL BE THE WIND OVERNIGHT AS IT WILL ONLY
STAY AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NO CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THURSDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALL AS DOES THE MOISTURE DEPTH. THE ARCTIC FRONT COMING THROUGH
ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT
THE ENTIRE CWA AS IT COMES THROUGH. THEN WE GO BACK TO NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON MOVES IN.

LAST WEEK IN MY DISCUSSIONS I QUESTIONED IF THE MJO BEING IN
PHASE 4 TO 5 (WARM FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES) OR THE
STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT (COLD FOR LOWER MICHIGAN) MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM NORTHERN ASIA WOULD BE ABLE TO TRUMP THE IMPACT OF
THE MJO. WELL...CLEARLY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
WINTER THIS WEEK...THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION THE STRATOSPHERIC
WARMING EVENT DID INDEED TAKE PRECEDENCE OVER THE MJO FOR OUR
AREA.

AS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT THAT IS ONGOING THE SUN HAS CAUSED
THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR. ONCE THE SUN SETS THEY
WILL BECOME LESS SO AND BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE. IT
IS DURING THE NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS FROM
WHAT REMAINS OF THIS EVENT. ALL THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
STRONG LIFT IN THE DGZ NEAR THE LAKE SHORE AS THE COLDEST AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION IN MY MIND WE HAVE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL YET TO SEE. THUS I KEEP THE HEADLINES AS IS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT THE LIKELY COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL
AFFECT THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BEFORE WE SEE A MODERATION IN TEMPS
AND A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKE SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEK.

WE WILL HAVE SEEN THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE COMPROMISED ON
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FOR SAT. IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE
NNW AND SHIFTING TO THE NNE BY SAT NIGHT. THIS OCCURS AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN FAIRLY QUICK AND THE UPPER JET LIFTING NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT TO THE LAKESHORE ON SAT...AND
THEN SHIFT IT OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT
CLEARING SKIES FOR SAT NIGHT AND LOWS HAVING A GOOD CHC OF GOING
BELOW ZERO.

WE WILL THEN SEE TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BEGINNING ON SUN AND
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THU. THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL FLATTEN
OUT A BIT ONCE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND KICKS EAST. THIS WILL
BRING A COUPLE OF TROUGHS THROUGH THE AREA. ONE LOOKS TO MOVE IN
STARTING LATE SUN INTO MON...AND ANOTHER LOOKS TO MOVE IN TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THE TIMING ON THESE SMALLER WAVES IS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC
AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN. FOR NOW WE HAVE
GONE WITH PCPN CHCS FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED AND MODERATING TEMPS
INTO THE 30S.

IT APPEARS THE BIGGER SYSTEM POISED TO THE AFFECT THE SE U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH AS THE SRN STREAM DIGS FAIRLY
STRONG...AND WITH OUR ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. WE WILL WATCH THE TRENDS
WITH THIS...IN CASE IT WERE TO APPROACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR WEATHER IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE SNOW SHOWERS BECOME LIMITED TO MAINLY JUST THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. SOME BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MKG
BUT THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE
TERMINAL THERE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

ON THURSDAY THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD BACK INLAND
AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
TAF SITES SHOULD BECOME MVFR AS THIS OCCURS ALTHOUGH SOME IFR
VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AT MKG AND AZO.

WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY... GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MARINE HEADLINES FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL COVER THINGS WELL THROUGH THU MORNING
BEFORE WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH.

THE NEXT SET OF HEADLINES NEEDED WILL LIKELY COME BEGINNING FOR
FRIDAY AND LAST INTO SAT WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ056-064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-050-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KGRR 110250
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
950 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
A LARGE POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER MICHIGAN ON
SUNDAY DIMINISHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER BUT IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COLD. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

WILL REALIGN THE HEADLINES...KEEPING JUST THE SW PORTION OF THE
CWA IN THE WARNING.

LAND BREEZE EFFECTS SHOULD KICK IN THROUGH THE NIGHT...KEEPING
THE MAIN SNOW BANDS OFFSHORE AND THEN MOVING INLAND OVER SW OTTAWA
AND INTO ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES

WILL DOWNGRADE THE REST OF THE COUNTIES TO AN ADVISORY AS LESS
INTENSE SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THESE REGION.

ALSO OF LESS IMPACT WILL BE THE WIND OVERNIGHT AS IT WILL ONLY
STAY AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NO CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THURSDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALL AS DOES THE MOISTURE DEPTH. THE ARCTIC FRONT COMING THROUGH
ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT
THE ENTIRE CWA AS IT COMES THROUGH. THEN WE GO BACK TO NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON MOVES IN.

LAST WEEK IN MY DISCUSSIONS I QUESTIONED IF THE MJO BEING IN
PHASE 4 TO 5 (WARM FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES) OR THE
STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT (COLD FOR LOWER MICHIGAN) MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM NORTHERN ASIA WOULD BE ABLE TO TRUMP THE IMPACT OF
THE MJO. WELL...CLEARLY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
WINTER THIS WEEK...THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION THE STRATOSPHERIC
WARMING EVENT DID INDEED TAKE PRECEDENCE OVER THE MJO FOR OUR
AREA.

AS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT THAT IS ONGOING THE SUN HAS CAUSED
THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR. ONCE THE SUN SETS THEY
WILL BECOME LESS SO AND BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE. IT
IS DURING THE NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS FROM
WHAT REMAINS OF THIS EVENT. ALL THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
STRONG LIFT IN THE DGZ NEAR THE LAKE SHORE AS THE COLDEST AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION IN MY MIND WE HAVE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL YET TO SEE. THUS I KEEP THE HEADLINES AS IS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT THE LIKELY COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL
AFFECT THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BEFORE WE SEE A MODERATION IN TEMPS
AND A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKE SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEK.

WE WILL HAVE SEEN THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE COMPROMISED ON
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FOR SAT. IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE
NNW AND SHIFTING TO THE NNE BY SAT NIGHT. THIS OCCURS AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN FAIRLY QUICK AND THE UPPER JET LIFTING NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT TO THE LAKESHORE ON SAT...AND
THEN SHIFT IT OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT
CLEARING SKIES FOR SAT NIGHT AND LOWS HAVING A GOOD CHC OF GOING
BELOW ZERO.

WE WILL THEN SEE TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BEGINNING ON SUN AND
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THU. THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL FLATTEN
OUT A BIT ONCE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND KICKS EAST. THIS WILL
BRING A COUPLE OF TROUGHS THROUGH THE AREA. ONE LOOKS TO MOVE IN
STARTING LATE SUN INTO MON...AND ANOTHER LOOKS TO MOVE IN TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THE TIMING ON THESE SMALLER WAVES IS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC
AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN. FOR NOW WE HAVE
GONE WITH PCPN CHCS FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED AND MODERATING TEMPS
INTO THE 30S.

IT APPEARS THE BIGGER SYSTEM POISED TO THE AFFECT THE SE U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH AS THE SRN STREAM DIGS FAIRLY
STRONG...AND WITH OUR ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. WE WILL WATCH THE TRENDS
WITH THIS...IN CASE IT WERE TO APPROACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR WEATHER IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE SNOW SHOWERS BECOME LIMITED TO MAINLY JUST THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. SOME BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MKG
BUT THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE
TERMINAL THERE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

ON THURSDAY THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD BACK INLAND
AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
TAF SITES SHOULD BECOME MVFR AS THIS OCCURS ALTHOUGH SOME IFR
VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AT MKG AND AZO.

WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY... GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MARINE HEADLINES FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL COVER THINGS WELL THROUGH THU MORNING
BEFORE WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH.

THE NEXT SET OF HEADLINES NEEDED WILL LIKELY COME BEGINNING FOR
FRIDAY AND LAST INTO SAT WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ056-064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-050-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 110250
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
950 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
A LARGE POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER MICHIGAN ON
SUNDAY DIMINISHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER BUT IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COLD. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

WILL REALIGN THE HEADLINES...KEEPING JUST THE SW PORTION OF THE
CWA IN THE WARNING.

LAND BREEZE EFFECTS SHOULD KICK IN THROUGH THE NIGHT...KEEPING
THE MAIN SNOW BANDS OFFSHORE AND THEN MOVING INLAND OVER SW OTTAWA
AND INTO ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES

WILL DOWNGRADE THE REST OF THE COUNTIES TO AN ADVISORY AS LESS
INTENSE SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THESE REGION.

ALSO OF LESS IMPACT WILL BE THE WIND OVERNIGHT AS IT WILL ONLY
STAY AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NO CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THURSDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALL AS DOES THE MOISTURE DEPTH. THE ARCTIC FRONT COMING THROUGH
ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT
THE ENTIRE CWA AS IT COMES THROUGH. THEN WE GO BACK TO NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON MOVES IN.

LAST WEEK IN MY DISCUSSIONS I QUESTIONED IF THE MJO BEING IN
PHASE 4 TO 5 (WARM FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES) OR THE
STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT (COLD FOR LOWER MICHIGAN) MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM NORTHERN ASIA WOULD BE ABLE TO TRUMP THE IMPACT OF
THE MJO. WELL...CLEARLY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
WINTER THIS WEEK...THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION THE STRATOSPHERIC
WARMING EVENT DID INDEED TAKE PRECEDENCE OVER THE MJO FOR OUR
AREA.

AS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT THAT IS ONGOING THE SUN HAS CAUSED
THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR. ONCE THE SUN SETS THEY
WILL BECOME LESS SO AND BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE. IT
IS DURING THE NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS FROM
WHAT REMAINS OF THIS EVENT. ALL THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
STRONG LIFT IN THE DGZ NEAR THE LAKE SHORE AS THE COLDEST AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION IN MY MIND WE HAVE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL YET TO SEE. THUS I KEEP THE HEADLINES AS IS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT THE LIKELY COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL
AFFECT THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BEFORE WE SEE A MODERATION IN TEMPS
AND A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKE SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEK.

WE WILL HAVE SEEN THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE COMPROMISED ON
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FOR SAT. IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE
NNW AND SHIFTING TO THE NNE BY SAT NIGHT. THIS OCCURS AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN FAIRLY QUICK AND THE UPPER JET LIFTING NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT TO THE LAKESHORE ON SAT...AND
THEN SHIFT IT OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT
CLEARING SKIES FOR SAT NIGHT AND LOWS HAVING A GOOD CHC OF GOING
BELOW ZERO.

WE WILL THEN SEE TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BEGINNING ON SUN AND
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THU. THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL FLATTEN
OUT A BIT ONCE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND KICKS EAST. THIS WILL
BRING A COUPLE OF TROUGHS THROUGH THE AREA. ONE LOOKS TO MOVE IN
STARTING LATE SUN INTO MON...AND ANOTHER LOOKS TO MOVE IN TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THE TIMING ON THESE SMALLER WAVES IS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC
AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN. FOR NOW WE HAVE
GONE WITH PCPN CHCS FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED AND MODERATING TEMPS
INTO THE 30S.

IT APPEARS THE BIGGER SYSTEM POISED TO THE AFFECT THE SE U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH AS THE SRN STREAM DIGS FAIRLY
STRONG...AND WITH OUR ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. WE WILL WATCH THE TRENDS
WITH THIS...IN CASE IT WERE TO APPROACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR WEATHER IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE SNOW SHOWERS BECOME LIMITED TO MAINLY JUST THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. SOME BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MKG
BUT THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE
TERMINAL THERE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

ON THURSDAY THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD BACK INLAND
AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
TAF SITES SHOULD BECOME MVFR AS THIS OCCURS ALTHOUGH SOME IFR
VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AT MKG AND AZO.

WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY... GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MARINE HEADLINES FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL COVER THINGS WELL THROUGH THU MORNING
BEFORE WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH.

THE NEXT SET OF HEADLINES NEEDED WILL LIKELY COME BEGINNING FOR
FRIDAY AND LAST INTO SAT WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ056-064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-050-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KGRR 102350
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
650 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
A LARGE POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER MICHIGAN ON
SUNDAY DIMINISHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER BUT IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COLD. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NO CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THURSDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALL AS DOES THE MOISTURE DEPTH. THE ARCTIC FRONT COMING THROUGH
ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT
THE ENTIRE CWA AS IT COMES THROUGH. THEN WE GO BACK TO NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON MOVES IN.

LAST WEEK IN MY DISCUSSIONS I QUESTIONED IF THE MJO BEING IN
PHASE 4 TO 5 (WARM FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES) OR THE
STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT (COLD FOR LOWER MICHIGAN) MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM NORTHERN ASIA WOULD BE ABLE TO TRUMP THE IMPACT OF
THE MJO. WELL...CLEARLY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
WINTER THIS WEEK...THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION THE STRATOSPHERIC
WARMING EVENT DID INDEED TAKE PRECEDENCE OVER THE MJO FOR OUR
AREA.

AS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT THAT IS ONGOING THE SUN HAS CAUSED
THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR. ONCE THE SUN SETS THEY
WILL BECOME LESS SO AND BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE. IT
IS DURING THE NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS FROM
WHAT REMAINS OF THIS EVENT. ALL THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
STRONG LIFT IN THE DGZ NEAR THE LAKE SHORE AS THE COLDEST AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION IN MY MIND WE HAVE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL YET TO SEE. THUS I KEEP THE HEADLINES AS IS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT THE LIKELY COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL
AFFECT THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BEFORE WE SEE A MODERATION IN TEMPS
AND A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKE SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEK.

WE WILL HAVE SEEN THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE COMPROMISED ON
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FOR SAT. IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE
NNW AND SHIFTING TO THE NNE BY SAT NIGHT. THIS OCCURS AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN FAIRLY QUICK AND THE UPPER JET LIFTING NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT TO THE LAKESHORE ON SAT...AND
THEN SHIFT IT OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT
CLEARING SKIES FOR SAT NIGHT AND LOWS HAVING A GOOD CHC OF GOING
BELOW ZERO.

WE WILL THEN SEE TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BEGINNING ON SUN AND
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THU. THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL FLATTEN
OUT A BIT ONCE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND KICKS EAST. THIS WILL
BRING A COUPLE OF TROUGHS THROUGH THE AREA. ONE LOOKS TO MOVE IN
STARTING LATE SUN INTO MON...AND ANOTHER LOOKS TO MOVE IN TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THE TIMING ON THESE SMALLER WAVES IS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC
AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN. FOR NOW WE HAVE
GONE WITH PCPN CHCS FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED AND MODERATING TEMPS
INTO THE 30S.

IT APPEARS THE BIGGER SYSTEM POISED TO THE AFFECT THE SE U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH AS THE SRN STREAM DIGS FAIRLY
STRONG...AND WITH OUR ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. WE WILL WATCH THE TRENDS
WITH THIS...IN CASE IT WERE TO APPROACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR WEATHER IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE SNOW SHOWERS BECOME LIMITED TO MAINLY JUST THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. SOME BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MKG
BUT THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE
TERMINAL THERE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

ON THURSDAY THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD BACK INLAND
AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
TAF SITES SHOULD BECOME MVFR AS THIS OCCURS ALTHOUGH SOME IFR
VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AT MKG AND AZO.

WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY... GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MARINE HEADLINES FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL COVER THINGS WELL THROUGH THU MORNING
BEFORE WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH.

THE NEXT SET OF HEADLINES NEEDED WILL LIKELY COME BEGINNING FOR
FRIDAY AND LAST INTO SAT WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-056-
     064-071-072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ038-050.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KGRR 102350
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
650 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
A LARGE POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER MICHIGAN ON
SUNDAY DIMINISHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER BUT IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COLD. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NO CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THURSDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALL AS DOES THE MOISTURE DEPTH. THE ARCTIC FRONT COMING THROUGH
ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT
THE ENTIRE CWA AS IT COMES THROUGH. THEN WE GO BACK TO NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON MOVES IN.

LAST WEEK IN MY DISCUSSIONS I QUESTIONED IF THE MJO BEING IN
PHASE 4 TO 5 (WARM FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES) OR THE
STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT (COLD FOR LOWER MICHIGAN) MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM NORTHERN ASIA WOULD BE ABLE TO TRUMP THE IMPACT OF
THE MJO. WELL...CLEARLY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
WINTER THIS WEEK...THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION THE STRATOSPHERIC
WARMING EVENT DID INDEED TAKE PRECEDENCE OVER THE MJO FOR OUR
AREA.

AS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT THAT IS ONGOING THE SUN HAS CAUSED
THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR. ONCE THE SUN SETS THEY
WILL BECOME LESS SO AND BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE. IT
IS DURING THE NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS FROM
WHAT REMAINS OF THIS EVENT. ALL THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
STRONG LIFT IN THE DGZ NEAR THE LAKE SHORE AS THE COLDEST AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION IN MY MIND WE HAVE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL YET TO SEE. THUS I KEEP THE HEADLINES AS IS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT THE LIKELY COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL
AFFECT THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BEFORE WE SEE A MODERATION IN TEMPS
AND A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKE SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEK.

WE WILL HAVE SEEN THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE COMPROMISED ON
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FOR SAT. IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE
NNW AND SHIFTING TO THE NNE BY SAT NIGHT. THIS OCCURS AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN FAIRLY QUICK AND THE UPPER JET LIFTING NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT TO THE LAKESHORE ON SAT...AND
THEN SHIFT IT OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT
CLEARING SKIES FOR SAT NIGHT AND LOWS HAVING A GOOD CHC OF GOING
BELOW ZERO.

WE WILL THEN SEE TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BEGINNING ON SUN AND
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THU. THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL FLATTEN
OUT A BIT ONCE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND KICKS EAST. THIS WILL
BRING A COUPLE OF TROUGHS THROUGH THE AREA. ONE LOOKS TO MOVE IN
STARTING LATE SUN INTO MON...AND ANOTHER LOOKS TO MOVE IN TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THE TIMING ON THESE SMALLER WAVES IS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC
AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN. FOR NOW WE HAVE
GONE WITH PCPN CHCS FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED AND MODERATING TEMPS
INTO THE 30S.

IT APPEARS THE BIGGER SYSTEM POISED TO THE AFFECT THE SE U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH AS THE SRN STREAM DIGS FAIRLY
STRONG...AND WITH OUR ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. WE WILL WATCH THE TRENDS
WITH THIS...IN CASE IT WERE TO APPROACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR WEATHER IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE SNOW SHOWERS BECOME LIMITED TO MAINLY JUST THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. SOME BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MKG
BUT THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE
TERMINAL THERE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

ON THURSDAY THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD BACK INLAND
AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
TAF SITES SHOULD BECOME MVFR AS THIS OCCURS ALTHOUGH SOME IFR
VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AT MKG AND AZO.

WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY... GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MARINE HEADLINES FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL COVER THINGS WELL THROUGH THU MORNING
BEFORE WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH.

THE NEXT SET OF HEADLINES NEEDED WILL LIKELY COME BEGINNING FOR
FRIDAY AND LAST INTO SAT WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-056-
     064-071-072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ038-050.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 102350
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
650 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
A LARGE POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER MICHIGAN ON
SUNDAY DIMINISHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER BUT IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COLD. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NO CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THURSDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALL AS DOES THE MOISTURE DEPTH. THE ARCTIC FRONT COMING THROUGH
ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT
THE ENTIRE CWA AS IT COMES THROUGH. THEN WE GO BACK TO NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON MOVES IN.

LAST WEEK IN MY DISCUSSIONS I QUESTIONED IF THE MJO BEING IN
PHASE 4 TO 5 (WARM FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES) OR THE
STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT (COLD FOR LOWER MICHIGAN) MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM NORTHERN ASIA WOULD BE ABLE TO TRUMP THE IMPACT OF
THE MJO. WELL...CLEARLY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
WINTER THIS WEEK...THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION THE STRATOSPHERIC
WARMING EVENT DID INDEED TAKE PRECEDENCE OVER THE MJO FOR OUR
AREA.

AS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT THAT IS ONGOING THE SUN HAS CAUSED
THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR. ONCE THE SUN SETS THEY
WILL BECOME LESS SO AND BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE. IT
IS DURING THE NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS FROM
WHAT REMAINS OF THIS EVENT. ALL THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
STRONG LIFT IN THE DGZ NEAR THE LAKE SHORE AS THE COLDEST AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION IN MY MIND WE HAVE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL YET TO SEE. THUS I KEEP THE HEADLINES AS IS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT THE LIKELY COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL
AFFECT THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BEFORE WE SEE A MODERATION IN TEMPS
AND A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKE SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEK.

WE WILL HAVE SEEN THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE COMPROMISED ON
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FOR SAT. IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE
NNW AND SHIFTING TO THE NNE BY SAT NIGHT. THIS OCCURS AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN FAIRLY QUICK AND THE UPPER JET LIFTING NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT TO THE LAKESHORE ON SAT...AND
THEN SHIFT IT OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT
CLEARING SKIES FOR SAT NIGHT AND LOWS HAVING A GOOD CHC OF GOING
BELOW ZERO.

WE WILL THEN SEE TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BEGINNING ON SUN AND
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THU. THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL FLATTEN
OUT A BIT ONCE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND KICKS EAST. THIS WILL
BRING A COUPLE OF TROUGHS THROUGH THE AREA. ONE LOOKS TO MOVE IN
STARTING LATE SUN INTO MON...AND ANOTHER LOOKS TO MOVE IN TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THE TIMING ON THESE SMALLER WAVES IS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC
AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN. FOR NOW WE HAVE
GONE WITH PCPN CHCS FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED AND MODERATING TEMPS
INTO THE 30S.

IT APPEARS THE BIGGER SYSTEM POISED TO THE AFFECT THE SE U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH AS THE SRN STREAM DIGS FAIRLY
STRONG...AND WITH OUR ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. WE WILL WATCH THE TRENDS
WITH THIS...IN CASE IT WERE TO APPROACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR WEATHER IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE SNOW SHOWERS BECOME LIMITED TO MAINLY JUST THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. SOME BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MKG
BUT THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE
TERMINAL THERE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

ON THURSDAY THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD BACK INLAND
AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
TAF SITES SHOULD BECOME MVFR AS THIS OCCURS ALTHOUGH SOME IFR
VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AT MKG AND AZO.

WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY... GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MARINE HEADLINES FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL COVER THINGS WELL THROUGH THU MORNING
BEFORE WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH.

THE NEXT SET OF HEADLINES NEEDED WILL LIKELY COME BEGINNING FOR
FRIDAY AND LAST INTO SAT WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-056-
     064-071-072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ038-050.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KGRR 102024
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
A LARGE POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER MICHIGAN ON
SUNDAY DIMINISHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER BUT IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COLD. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NO CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THURSDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALL AS DOES THE MOISTURE DEPTH. THE ARCTIC FRONT COMING THROUGH
ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT
THE ENTIRE CWA AS IT COMES THROUGH. THEN WE GO BACK TO NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON MOVES IN.

LAST WEEK IN MY DISCUSSIONS I QUESTIONED IF THE MJO BEING IN
PHASE 4 TO 5 (WARM FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES) OR THE
STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT (COLD FOR LOWER MICHIGAN) MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM NORTHERN ASIA WOULD BE ABLE TO TRUMP THE IMPACT OF
THE MJO. WELL...CLEARLY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
WINTER THIS WEEK...THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION THE STRATOSPHERIC
WARMING EVENT DID INDEED TAKE PRECEDENCE OVER THE MJO FOR OUR
AREA.

AS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT THAT IS ONGOING SNOW EVENT THE SUN
HAS CAUSED THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR. ONCE THE SUN
SETS THEY WILL BECOME LESS SO AND BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE LAKE
SHORE. IT IS DURING THE NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE THE LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS FROM WHAT REMAINS OF THIS EVENT. ALL THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW STRONG LIFT IN THE DGZ NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
AS THE COLDEST AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION
IN MY MIND WE HAVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL YET TO SEE. THUS I KEEP
THE HEADLINES AS IS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT THE LIKELY COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL
AFFECT THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BEFORE WE SEE A MODERATION IN TEMPS
AND A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKE SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEK.

WE WILL HAVE SEEN THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE COMPROMISED ON
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FOR SAT. IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE
NNW AND SHIFTING TO THE NNE BY SAT NIGHT. THIS OCCURS AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN FAIRLY QUICK AND THE UPPER JET LIFTING NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT TO THE LAKESHORE ON SAT...AND
THEN SHIFT IT OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT
CLEARING SKIES FOR SAT NIGHT AND LOWS HAVING A GOOD CHC OF GOING
BELOW ZERO.

WE WILL THEN SEE TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BEGINNING ON SUN AND
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THU. THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL FLATTEN
OUT A BIT ONCE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND KICKS EAST. THIS WILL
BRING A COUPLE OF TROUGHS THROUGH THE AREA. ONE LOOKS TO MOVE IN
STARTING LATE SUN INTO MON...AND ANOTHER LOOKS TO MOVE IN TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THE TIMING ON THESE SMALLER WAVES IS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC
AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN. FOR NOW WE HAVE
GONE WITH PCPN CHCS FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED AND MODERATING TEMPS
INTO THE 30S.

IT APPEARS THE BIGGER SYSTEM POISED TO THE AFFECT THE SE U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH AS THE SRN STREAM DIGS FAIRLY
STRONG...AND WITH OUR ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. WE WILL WATCH THE TRENDS
WITH THIS...IN CASE IT WERE TO APPROACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MOST TERMINALS ARE SEEING PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
SPOTTY IFR WITH CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. KMKG AND KAZO ARE SEEING MORE PREVAILING IFR-LIFR IN
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. WE EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE NNW THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH A
BIT...WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE LOWER CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORE. WE EXPECT INLAND LOCATIONS MAY GO TO VFR WITH SOME
CLEARING EVEN POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE FROM A MORE WRLY DIRECTION ON THU WHICH
SHOULD DRIVE SNOW SHOWERS INLAND ONCE AGAIN. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD NOT BE AS INTENSE AS TODAY...BUT WILL DROP CONDITIONS TO
MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MARINE HEADLINES FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL COVER THINGS WELL THROUGH THU MORNING
BEFORE WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH.

THE NEXT SET OF HEADLINES NEEDED WILL LIKELY COME BEGINNING FOR
FRIDAY AND LAST INTO SAT WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-056-
     064-071-072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ038-050.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KGRR 101757
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1257 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WITH UP
TO AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY.  MOST
AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY FRIDAY BRINGING MORE SNOW.  HOWEVER AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THIS SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER.  IT WILL REMAIN
COLD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN COLD...THEN WE SEE A SLIGHTLY WARM UP FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOULD MOVE IN FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE UPDATED ZONE FORECAST AND WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KALAMAZOO
COUNTY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

I WILL VERY SHORTLY PUT KALAMAZOO COUNTY IN A WINTER STORM
WARNING SINCE WE HAVE HAD A REPORT OF 9 INCHES IN ALAMO IN
NORTHWEST KALAMAZOO COUNTY. RADAR DATA (STORM TOTAL SNOW DEPTH
FROM 88D) SHOWS THAT SNOW BAND EXTENDED FROM PORT SHELDON THROUGH
HOLLAND...TO JUST WEST OF THE CITY OF ALLEGAN THROUGH ALAMO. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODEL SUGGEST THE SNOW BANDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT WESTERN KALAMAZOO COUNTY THE REST OF THE DAY.
BASED ON THAT...IT MAKES SENSE TO ADD THEM TO THE WARNING...SO I
WILL AND I WILL RUN THE WARNING TO MATCH THE OTHERS... 10 AM
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE HEADLINES.

INVERSION LEVELS DROP A BIT TODAY AS LAST NIGHTS SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST. HOWEVER EVEN AT 7K FEET THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT BANDS.  OVERALL EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.  THE FLOW
REMAINS 330-335 THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  SO THE HEAVIER BANDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES...AND ALL OF VAN BUREN COUNTY.  SOME AREAS MAY
PICK AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES OF SNOW...AND LOCALLY MORE.  WINDS
WILL ALSO REMAIN A FACTOR...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING FOR MUCH OF
TODAY.  MEANWHILE INLAND AREAS WILL ONLY SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
WITH ACCUMS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.

EXPECT THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THE HEADLINES AND BIT EARLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.

THE INVERSION LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4K FEET FOR A BIT THURSDAY
NIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING THE SNOW WILL COMPLETE END...BUT THE INTENSITY
WILL DROP OFF.

THE LAKE EFFECT WILL PERK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER
MOVING IN.  HOWEVER THE INVERSION LEVELS SEEM TO ONLY BUMP UP A
BIT...SO EXPECTING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW.  GENERALLY TWO INCHES OR LESS
FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN AN INCH INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

PATTERN STARTS OUT QUITE AMPLIFIED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. VERY COLD AIR WILL
BE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN THIS TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO HIT
-26C TO -27C AT 700AM SAT. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO F. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN THE VERY COLD
AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACT.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE DIFFICULT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ONE OF A FAST ZONAL NATURE.
TIMING SHORTWAVE/S IN A ZONAL FLOW AT DAY 5 AND 6 IS A TOUGH CALL.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH OUR AREA
THOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS 30-
50 PCT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE SURFACE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ARE WEAK WITH THE ECMWF. THE SYSTEM IS A BIT MORE
DEVELOPED IN THE GFS. AT THIS POINT...SIDING WITH THE WEAKER ECMWF
AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. TUESDAY ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OUT AT DAY 7 IN A ZONAL
REGIME. HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

AFTER A COLD WEEKEND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MOST TERMINALS ARE SEEING PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
SPOTTY IFR WITH CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. KMKG AND KAZO ARE SEEING MORE PREVAILING IFR-LIFR IN
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. WE EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE NNW THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH A
BIT...WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE LOWER CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORE. WE EXPECT INLAND LOCATIONS MAY GO TO VFR WITH SOME
CLEARING EVEN POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE FROM A MORE WRLY DIRECTION ON THU WHICH
SHOULD DRIVE SNOW SHOWERS INLAND ONCE AGAIN. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD NOT BE AS INTENSE AS TODAY...BUT WILL DROP CONDITIONS TO
MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

WE HAVE ENDED THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-056-
     064-071-072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ038-050.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KGRR 101757
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1257 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WITH UP
TO AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY.  MOST
AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY FRIDAY BRINGING MORE SNOW.  HOWEVER AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THIS SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER.  IT WILL REMAIN
COLD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN COLD...THEN WE SEE A SLIGHTLY WARM UP FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOULD MOVE IN FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE UPDATED ZONE FORECAST AND WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KALAMAZOO
COUNTY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

I WILL VERY SHORTLY PUT KALAMAZOO COUNTY IN A WINTER STORM
WARNING SINCE WE HAVE HAD A REPORT OF 9 INCHES IN ALAMO IN
NORTHWEST KALAMAZOO COUNTY. RADAR DATA (STORM TOTAL SNOW DEPTH
FROM 88D) SHOWS THAT SNOW BAND EXTENDED FROM PORT SHELDON THROUGH
HOLLAND...TO JUST WEST OF THE CITY OF ALLEGAN THROUGH ALAMO. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODEL SUGGEST THE SNOW BANDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT WESTERN KALAMAZOO COUNTY THE REST OF THE DAY.
BASED ON THAT...IT MAKES SENSE TO ADD THEM TO THE WARNING...SO I
WILL AND I WILL RUN THE WARNING TO MATCH THE OTHERS... 10 AM
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE HEADLINES.

INVERSION LEVELS DROP A BIT TODAY AS LAST NIGHTS SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST. HOWEVER EVEN AT 7K FEET THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT BANDS.  OVERALL EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.  THE FLOW
REMAINS 330-335 THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  SO THE HEAVIER BANDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES...AND ALL OF VAN BUREN COUNTY.  SOME AREAS MAY
PICK AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES OF SNOW...AND LOCALLY MORE.  WINDS
WILL ALSO REMAIN A FACTOR...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING FOR MUCH OF
TODAY.  MEANWHILE INLAND AREAS WILL ONLY SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
WITH ACCUMS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.

EXPECT THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THE HEADLINES AND BIT EARLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.

THE INVERSION LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4K FEET FOR A BIT THURSDAY
NIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING THE SNOW WILL COMPLETE END...BUT THE INTENSITY
WILL DROP OFF.

THE LAKE EFFECT WILL PERK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER
MOVING IN.  HOWEVER THE INVERSION LEVELS SEEM TO ONLY BUMP UP A
BIT...SO EXPECTING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW.  GENERALLY TWO INCHES OR LESS
FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN AN INCH INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

PATTERN STARTS OUT QUITE AMPLIFIED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. VERY COLD AIR WILL
BE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN THIS TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO HIT
-26C TO -27C AT 700AM SAT. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO F. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN THE VERY COLD
AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACT.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE DIFFICULT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ONE OF A FAST ZONAL NATURE.
TIMING SHORTWAVE/S IN A ZONAL FLOW AT DAY 5 AND 6 IS A TOUGH CALL.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH OUR AREA
THOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS 30-
50 PCT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE SURFACE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ARE WEAK WITH THE ECMWF. THE SYSTEM IS A BIT MORE
DEVELOPED IN THE GFS. AT THIS POINT...SIDING WITH THE WEAKER ECMWF
AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. TUESDAY ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OUT AT DAY 7 IN A ZONAL
REGIME. HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

AFTER A COLD WEEKEND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MOST TERMINALS ARE SEEING PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
SPOTTY IFR WITH CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. KMKG AND KAZO ARE SEEING MORE PREVAILING IFR-LIFR IN
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. WE EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE NNW THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH A
BIT...WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE LOWER CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORE. WE EXPECT INLAND LOCATIONS MAY GO TO VFR WITH SOME
CLEARING EVEN POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE FROM A MORE WRLY DIRECTION ON THU WHICH
SHOULD DRIVE SNOW SHOWERS INLAND ONCE AGAIN. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD NOT BE AS INTENSE AS TODAY...BUT WILL DROP CONDITIONS TO
MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

WE HAVE ENDED THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-056-
     064-071-072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ038-050.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KGRR 101733
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WITH UP
TO AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY.  MOST
AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY FRIDAY BRINGING MORE SNOW.  HOWEVER AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THIS SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER.  IT WILL REMAIN
COLD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN COLD...THEN WE SEE A SLIGHTLY WARM UP FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOULD MOVE IN FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE UPDATED ZONE FORECAST AND WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KALAMAZOO
COUNTY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

I WILL VERY SHORTLY PUT KALAMAZOO COUNTY IN A WINTER STORM
WARNING SINCE WE HAVE HAD A REPORT OF 9 INCHES IN ALAMO IN
NORTHWEST KALAMAZOO COUNTY. RADAR DATA (STORM TOTAL SNOW DEPTH
FROM 88D) SHOWS THAT SNOW BAND EXTENDED FROM PORT SHELDON THROUGH
HOLLAND...TO JUST WEST OF THE CITY OF ALLEGAN THROUGH ALAMO. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODEL SUGGEST THE SNOW BANDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT WESTERN KALAMAZOO COUNTY THE REST OF THE DAY.
BASED ON THAT...IT MAKES SENSE TO ADD THEM TO THE WARNING...SO I
WILL AND I WILL RUN THE WARNING TO MATCH THE OTHERS... 10 AM
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED HEB 10 2016

WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE HEADLINES.

INVERSION LEVELS DROP A BIT TODAY AS LAST NIGHTS SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST. HOWEVER EVEN AT 7K FEET THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT BANDS.  OVERALL EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.  THE FLOW
REMAINS 330-335 THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  SO THE HEAVIER BANDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES...AND ALL OF VAN BUREN COUNTY.  SOME AREAS MAY
PICK AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES OF SNOW...AND LOCALLY MORE.  WINDS
WILL ALSO REMAIN A FACTOR...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING FOR MUCH OF
TODAY.  MEANWHILE INLAND AREAS WILL ONLY SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
WITH ACCUMS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.

EXPECT THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THE HEADLINES AND BIT EARLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.

THE INVERSION LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4K FEET FOR A BIT THURSDAY
NIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING THE SNOW WILL COMPLETE END...BUT THE INTENSITY
WILL DROP OFF.

THE LAKE EFFECT WILL PERK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER
MOVING IN.  HOWEVER THE INVERSION LEVELS SEEM TO ONLY BUMP UP A
BIT...SO EXPECTING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW.  GENERALLY TWO INCHES OR LESS
FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN AN INCH INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

PATTERN STARTS OUT QUITE AMPLIFIED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. VERY COLD AIR WILL
BE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN THIS TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO HIT
-26C TO -27C AT 700AM SAT. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO F. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN THE VERY COLD
AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACT.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE DIFFICULT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ONE OF A FAST ZONAL NATURE.
TIMING SHORTWAVE/S IN A ZONAL FLOW AT DAY 5 AND 6 IS A TOUGH CALL.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH OUR AREA
THOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS 30-
50 PCT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE SURFACE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ARE WEAK WITH THE ECMWF. THE SYSTEM IS A BIT MORE
DEVELOPED IN THE GFS. AT THIS POINT...SIDING WITH THE WEAKER ECMWF
AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. TUESDAY ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OUT AT DAY 7 IN A ZONAL
REGIME. HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

AFTER A COLD WEEKEND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

STEADY STATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO MOST OF
TONIGHT. THE WAY THE BANDS WILL BE SITUATED IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW...KLAN...KBTL AND KJXN WILL NOT BE AFFECTED TOO MUCH. THERE
WILL BE SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR AT THESE INLAND TAF SITES TODAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VFR.

THE BANDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT KAZO THE MOST AS THE BAND SHIFTS IN
AND OUT OF THAT TAF SITE. MVFR WILL BE LIKELY THERE WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS.

KMKG AND KGRR WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL...BUT CONDITIONS WILL
BE VARYING MORE VFR TO MVFR.

A NORTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON PLACE TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

WE HAVE ENDED THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVIOSRY UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-056-
     064-071-072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ038-050.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KGRR 101450
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
950 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WITH UP
TO AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY.  MOST
AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY FRIDAY BRINGING MORE SNOW.  HOWEVER AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THIS SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER.  IT WILL REMAIN
COLD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN COLD...THEN WE SEE A SLIGHTLY WARM UP FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOULD MOVE IN FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE UPDATED ZONE FORECAST AND WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KALAMAZOO
COUNTY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

I WILL VERY SHORTLY PUT KALAMAZOO COUNTY IN A WINTER STORM
WARNING SINCE WE HAVE HAD A REPORT OF 9 INCHES IN ALAMO IN
NORTHWEST KALAMAZOO COUNTY. RADAR DATA (STORM TOTAL SNOW DEPTH
FROM 88D) SHOWS THAT SNOW BAND EXTENDED FROM PORT SHELDON THROUGH
HOLLAND...TO JUST WEST OF THE CITY OF ALLEGAN THROUGH ALAMO. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODEL SUGGEST THE SNOW BANDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT WESTERN KALAMAZOO COUNTY THE REST OF THE DAY.
BASED ON THAT...IT MAKES SENSE TO ADD THEM TO THE WARNING...SO I
WILL AND I WILL RUN THE WARNING TO MATCH THE OTHERS... 10 AM
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED HEB 10 2016

WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE HEADLINES.

INVERSION LEVELS DROP A BIT TODAY AS LAST NIGHTS SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST. HOWEVER EVEN AT 7K FEET THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT BANDS.  OVERALL EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.  THE FLOW
REMAINS 330-335 THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  SO THE HEAVIER BANDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES...AND ALL OF VAN BUREN COUNTY.  SOME AREAS MAY
PICK AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES OF SNOW...AND LOCALLY MORE.  WINDS
WILL ALSO REMAIN A FACTOR...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING FOR MUCH OF
TODAY.  MEANWHILE INLAND AREAS WILL ONLY SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
WITH ACCUMS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.

EXPECT THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THE HEADLINES AND BIT EARLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.

THE INVERSION LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4K FEET FOR A BIT THURSDAY
NIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING THE SNOW WILL COMPLETE END...BUT THE INTENSITY
WILL DROP OFF.

THE LAKE EFFECT WILL PERK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER
MOVING IN.  HOWEVER THE INVERSION LEVELS SEEM TO ONLY BUMP UP A
BIT...SO EXPECTING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW.  GENERALLY TWO INCHES OR LESS
FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN AN INCH INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

PATTERN STARTS OUT QUITE AMPLIFIED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. VERY COLD AIR WILL
BE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN THIS TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO HIT
-26C TO -27C AT 700AM SAT. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO F. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN THE VERY COLD
AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACT.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE DIFFICULT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ONE OF A FAST ZONAL NATURE.
TIMING SHORTWAVE/S IN A ZONAL FLOW AT DAY 5 AND 6 IS A TOUGH CALL.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH OUR AREA
THOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS 30-
50 PCT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE SURFACE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ARE WEAK WITH THE ECMWF. THE SYSTEM IS A BIT MORE
DEVELOPED IN THE GFS. AT THIS POINT...SIDING WITH THE WEAKER ECMWF
AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. TUESDAY ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OUT AT DAY 7 IN A ZONAL
REGIME. HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

AFTER A COLD WEEKEND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

STEADY STATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO MOST OF
TONIGHT. THE WAY THE BANDS WILL BE SITUATED IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW...KLAN...KBTL AND KJXN WILL NOT BE AFFECTED TOO MUCH. THERE
WILL BE SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR AT THESE INLAND TAF SITES TODAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VFR.

THE BANDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT KAZO THE MOST AS THE BAND SHIFTS IN
AND OUT OF THAT TAF SITE. MVFR WILL BE LIKELY THERE WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS.

KMKG AND KGRR WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL...BUT CONDITIONS WILL
BE VARYING MORE VFR TO MVFR.

A NORTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON PLACE TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

WE HAVE ENDED THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVIOSRY UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT AS
EXPECTED. REALISTICALLY...THE RATE AT WHICH IT IS FALLING MAY
ALLOW IT TO BE DROPPED BY FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORY THEN SHIFTS TO
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON...POSSIBLY LEADING TO ICE BUILD UP
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME COOLER EACH DAY THIS WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW FREEZING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR SEEMS TO MAKE IT
IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS AND SOME AREAS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY ASSIST IN ICE FORMATION FOR STREAMS AND RIVERS...BECOMING
MORE OF A FOCUS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF RUNOFF. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL STAY HUGGED ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BORDERING COUNTIES AND OTHER AREAS TYPICAL OF
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL JUST BE A DELAYED CONCERN IF ADDITIONAL
LIQUID MOISTURE IS RECEIVED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. AS FOR NOW...THE
TOTALS OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK ARE ONLY LOCALLY HIGH NEAR THE
LAKE WITH AREA WIDE AVERAGES STAYING RELATIVELY LOW WHEN
CONSIDERING THE EPISODIC NATURE OF THE EVENT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-056-
     064-071-072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ038-050.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KGRR 101422
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
922 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WITH UP
TO AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY.  MOST
AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY FRIDAY BRINGING MORE SNOW.  HOWEVER AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THIS SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER.  IT WILL REMAIN
COLD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN COLD...THEN WE SEE A SLIGHTLY WARM UP FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOULD MOVE IN FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

I WILL VERY SHORTLY PUT KALAMAZOO COUNTY IN A WINTER STORM
WARNING SINCE WE HAVE HAD A REPORT OF 9 INCHES IN ALAMO IN
NORTHWEST KALAMAZOO COUNTY. RADAR DATA (STORM TOTAL SNOW DEPTH
FROM 88D) SHOWS THAT SNOW BAND EXTENDED FROM PORT SHELDON THROUGH
HOLLAND...TO JUST WEST OF THE CITY OF ALLEGAN THROUGH ALAMO. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODEL SUGGEST THE SNOW BANDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT WESTERN KALAMAZOO COUNTY THE REST OF THE DAY.
BASED ON THAT...IT MAKES SENSE TO ADD THEM TO THE WARNING...SO I
WILL AND I WILL RUN THE WARNING TO MATCH THE OTHERS... 10 AM
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED HEB 10 2016

WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE HEADLINES.

INVERSION LEVELS DROP A BIT TODAY AS LAST NIGHTS SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST. HOWEVER EVEN AT 7K FEET THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT BANDS.  OVERALL EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.  THE FLOW
REMAINS 330-335 THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  SO THE HEAVIER BANDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES...AND ALL OF VAN BUREN COUNTY.  SOME AREAS MAY
PICK AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES OF SNOW...AND LOCALLY MORE.  WINDS
WILL ALSO REMAIN A FACTOR...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING FOR MUCH OF
TODAY.  MEANWHILE INLAND AREAS WILL ONLY SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
WITH ACCUMS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.

EXPECT THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THE HEADLINES AND BIT EARLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.

THE INVERSION LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4K FEET FOR A BIT THURSDAY
NIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING THE SNOW WILL COMPLETE END...BUT THE INTENSITY
WILL DROP OFF.

THE LAKE EFFECT WILL PERK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER
MOVING IN.  HOWEVER THE INVERSION LEVELS SEEM TO ONLY BUMP UP A
BIT...SO EXPECTING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW.  GENERALLY TWO INCHES OR LESS
FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN AN INCH INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

PATTERN STARTS OUT QUITE AMPLIFIED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. VERY COLD AIR WILL
BE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN THIS TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO HIT
-26C TO -27C AT 700AM SAT. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO F. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN THE VERY COLD
AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACT.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE DIFFICULT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ONE OF A FAST ZONAL NATURE.
TIMING SHORTWAVE/S IN A ZONAL FLOW AT DAY 5 AND 6 IS A TOUGH CALL.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH OUR AREA
THOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS 30-
50 PCT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE SURFACE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ARE WEAK WITH THE ECMWF. THE SYSTEM IS A BIT MORE
DEVELOPED IN THE GFS. AT THIS POINT...SIDING WITH THE WEAKER ECMWF
AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. TUESDAY ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OUT AT DAY 7 IN A ZONAL
REGIME. HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

AFTER A COLD WEEKEND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

STEADY STATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO MOST OF
TONIGHT. THE WAY THE BANDS WILL BE SITUATED IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW...KLAN...KBTL AND KJXN WILL NOT BE AFFECTED TOO MUCH. THERE
WILL BE SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR AT THESE INLAND TAF SITES TODAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VFR.

THE BANDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT KAZO THE MOST AS THE BAND SHIFTS IN
AND OUT OF THAT TAF SITE. MVFR WILL BE LIKELY THERE WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS.

KMKG AND KGRR WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL...BUT CONDITIONS WILL
BE VARYING MORE VFR TO MVFR.

A NORTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON PLACE TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

GALE FORCE WIND NORTH OF WHITEHALL WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT AS
EXPECTED. REALISTICALLY...THE RATE AT WHICH IT IS FALLING MAY
ALLOW IT TO BE DROPPED BY FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORY THEN SHIFTS TO
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON...POSSIBLY LEADING TO ICE BUILD UP
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME COOLER EACH DAY THIS WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW FREEZING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR SEEMS TO MAKE IT
IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS AND SOME AREAS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY ASSIST IN ICE FORMATION FOR STREAMS AND RIVERS...BECOMING
MORE OF A FOCUS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF RUNOFF. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL STAY HUGGED ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BORDERING COUNTIES AND OTHER AREAS TYPICAL OF
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL JUST BE A DELAYED CONCERN IF ADDITIONAL
LIQUID MOISTURE IS RECEIVED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. AS FOR NOW...THE
TOTALS OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK ARE ONLY LOCALLY HIGH NEAR THE
LAKE WITH AREA WIDE AVERAGES STAYING RELATIVELY LOW WHEN
CONSIDERING THE EPISODIC NATURE OF THE EVENT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-056-
     064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ038-050-
     072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ848-849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK





000
FXUS63 KGRR 101220
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
720 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WITH UP
TO AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY.  MOST
AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY FRIDAY BRINGING MORE SNOW.  HOWEVER AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THIS SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER.  IT WILL REMAIN
COLD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN COLD...THEN WE SEE A SLIGHTLY WARM UP FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOULD MOVE IN FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE HEADLINES.

INVERSION LEVELS DROP A BIT TODAY AS LAST NIGHTS SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST. HOWEVER EVEN AT 7K FEET THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT BANDS.  OVERALL EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.  THE FLOW
REMAINS 330-335 THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  SO THE HEAVIER BANDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES...AND ALL OF VAN BUREN COUNTY.  SOME AREAS MAY
PICK AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES OF SNOW...AND LOCALLY MORE.  WINDS
WILL ALSO REMAIN A FACTOR...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING FOR MUCH OF
TODAY.  MEANWHILE INLAND AREAS WILL ONLY SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
WITH ACCUMS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.

EXPECT THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THE HEADLINES AND BIT EARLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.

THE INVERSION LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4K FEET FOR A BIT THURSDAY
NIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING THE SNOW WILL COMPLETE END...BUT THE INTENSITY
WILL DROP OFF.

THE LAKE EFFECT WILL PERK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER
MOVING IN.  HOWEVER THE INVERSION LEVELS SEEM TO ONLY BUMP UP A
BIT...SO EXPECTING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW.  GENERALLY TWO INCHES OR LESS
FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN AN INCH INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

PATTERN STARTS OUT QUITE AMPLIFIED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. VERY COLD AIR WILL
BE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN THIS TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO HIT
-26C TO -27C AT 700AM SAT. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO F. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN THE VERY COLD
AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACT.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE DIFFICULT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ONE OF A FAST ZONAL NATURE.
TIMING SHORTWAVE/S IN A ZONAL FLOW AT DAY 5 AND 6 IS A TOUGH CALL.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH OUR AREA
THOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS 30-
50 PCT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE SURFACE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ARE WEAK WITH THE ECMWF. THE SYSTEM IS A BIT MORE
DEVELOPED IN THE GFS. AT THIS POINT...SIDING WITH THE WEAKER ECMWF
AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. TUESDAY ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OUT AT DAY 7 IN A ZONAL
REGIME. HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

AFTER A COLD WEEKEND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

STEADY STATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO MOST OF
TONIGHT. THE WAY THE BANDS WILL BE SITUATED IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW...KLAN...KBTL AND KJXN WILL NOT BE AFFECTED TOO MUCH. THERE
WILL BE SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR AT THESE INLAND TAF SITES TODAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VFR.

THE BANDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT KAZO THE MOST AS THE BAND SHIFTS IN
AND OUT OF THAT TAF SITE. MVFR WILL BE LIKELY THERE WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS.

KMKG AND KGRR WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL...BUT CONDITIONS WILL
BE VARYING MORE VFR TO MVFR.

A NORTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON PLACE TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

GALE FORCE WIND NORTH OF WHITEHALL WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT AS
EXPECTED. REALISTICALLY...THE RATE AT WHICH IT IS FALLING MAY
ALLOW IT TO BE DROPPED BY FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORY THEN SHIFTS TO
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON...POSSIBLY LEADING TO ICE BUILD UP
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME COOLER EACH DAY THIS WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW FREEZING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR SEEMS TO MAKE IT
IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS AND SOME AREAS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY ASSIST IN ICE FORMATION FOR STREAMS AND RIVERS...BECOMING
MORE OF A FOCUS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF RUNOFF. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL STAY HUGGED ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BORDERING COUNTIES AND OTHER AREAS TYPICAL OF
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL JUST BE A DELAYED CONCERN IF ADDITIONAL
LIQUID MOISTURE IS RECEIVED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. AS FOR NOW...THE
TOTALS OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK ARE ONLY LOCALLY HIGH NEAR THE
LAKE WITH AREA WIDE AVERAGES STAYING RELATIVELY LOW WHEN
CONSIDERING THE EPISODIC NATURE OF THE EVENT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-056-
     064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ038-050-
     072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ848-849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK





000
FXUS63 KGRR 100830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
309 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WITH UP
TO AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY.  MOST
AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY FRIDAY BRINGING MORE SNOW.  HOWEVER AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THIS SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER.  IT WILL REMAIN
COLD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN COLD...THEN WE SEE A SLIGHTLY WARM UP FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOULD MOVE IN FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE HEADLINES.

INVERSION LEVELS DROP A BIT TODAY AS LAST NIGHTS SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST. HOWEVER EVEN AT 7K FEET THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT BANDS.  OVERALL EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.  THE FLOW
REMAINS 330-335 THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  SO THE HEAVIER BANDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES...AND ALL OF VAN BUREN COUNTY.  SOME AREAS MAY
PICK AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES OF SNOW...AND LOCALLY MORE.  WINDS
WILL ALSO REMAIN A FACTOR...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING FOR MUCH OF
TODAY.  MEANWHILE INLAND AREAS WILL ONLY SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
WITH ACCUMS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.

EXPECT THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THE HEADLINES AND BIT EARLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.

THE INVERSION LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4K FEET FOR A BIT THURSDAY
NIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING THE SNOW WILL COMPLETE END...BUT THE INTENSITY
WILL DROP OFF.

THE LAKE EFFECT WILL PERK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER
MOVING IN.  HOWEVER THE INVERSION LEVELS SEEM TO ONLY BUMP UP A
BIT...SO EXPECTING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW.  GENERALLY TWO INCHES OR LESS
FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN AN INCH INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

PATTERN STARTS OUT QUITE AMPLIFIED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. VERY COLD AIR WILL
BE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN THIS TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO HIT
-26C TO -27C AT 700AM SAT. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO F. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN THE VERY COLD
AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACT.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE DIFFICULT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ONE OF A FAST ZONAL NATURE.
TIMING SHORTWAVE/S IN A ZONAL FLOW AT DAY 5 AND 6 IS A TOUGH CALL.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH OUR AREA
THOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS 30-
50 PCT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE SURFACE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ARE WEAK WITH THE ECMWF. THE SYSTEM IS A BIT MORE
DEVELOPED IN THE GFS. AT THIS POINT...SIDING WITH THE WEAKER ECMWF
AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. TUESDAY ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OUT AT DAY 7 IN A ZONAL
REGIME. HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

AFTER A COLD WEEKEND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER
OCNL IFR VSBYS WILL OCCASIONALLY IMPACT MKG AND AZO DUE TO
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

GALE FORCE WIND NORTH OF WHITEHALL WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT AS
EXPECTED. REALISTICALLY...THE RATE AT WHICH IT IS FALLING MAY
ALLOW IT TO BE DROPPED BY FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORY THEN SHIFTS TO
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON...POSSIBLY LEADING TO ICE BUILD UP
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME COOLER EACH DAY THIS WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW FREEZING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR SEEMS TO MAKE IT
IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS AND SOME AREAS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY ASSIST IN ICE FORMATION FOR STREAMS AND RIVERS...BECOMING
MORE OF A FOCUS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF RUNOFF. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL STAY HUGGED ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BORDERING COUNTIES AND OTHER AREAS TYPICAL OF
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL JUST BE A DELAYED CONCERN IF ADDITIONAL
LIQUID MOISTURE IS RECEIVED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. AS FOR NOW...THE
TOTALS OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK ARE ONLY LOCALLY HIGH NEAR THE
LAKE WITH AREA WIDE AVERAGES STAYING RELATIVELY LOW WHEN
CONSIDERING THE EPISODIC NATURE OF THE EVENT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-056-
     064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ038-050-
     072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ848-849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK





000
FXUS63 KGRR 100830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
309 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WITH UP
TO AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY.  MOST
AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY FRIDAY BRINGING MORE SNOW.  HOWEVER AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THIS SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER.  IT WILL REMAIN
COLD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN COLD...THEN WE SEE A SLIGHTLY WARM UP FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOULD MOVE IN FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE HEADLINES.

INVERSION LEVELS DROP A BIT TODAY AS LAST NIGHTS SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST. HOWEVER EVEN AT 7K FEET THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT BANDS.  OVERALL EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.  THE FLOW
REMAINS 330-335 THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  SO THE HEAVIER BANDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES...AND ALL OF VAN BUREN COUNTY.  SOME AREAS MAY
PICK AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES OF SNOW...AND LOCALLY MORE.  WINDS
WILL ALSO REMAIN A FACTOR...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING FOR MUCH OF
TODAY.  MEANWHILE INLAND AREAS WILL ONLY SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
WITH ACCUMS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.

EXPECT THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THE HEADLINES AND BIT EARLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.

THE INVERSION LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4K FEET FOR A BIT THURSDAY
NIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING THE SNOW WILL COMPLETE END...BUT THE INTENSITY
WILL DROP OFF.

THE LAKE EFFECT WILL PERK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER
MOVING IN.  HOWEVER THE INVERSION LEVELS SEEM TO ONLY BUMP UP A
BIT...SO EXPECTING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW.  GENERALLY TWO INCHES OR LESS
FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN AN INCH INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

PATTERN STARTS OUT QUITE AMPLIFIED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. VERY COLD AIR WILL
BE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN THIS TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO HIT
-26C TO -27C AT 700AM SAT. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO F. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN THE VERY COLD
AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACT.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE DIFFICULT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ONE OF A FAST ZONAL NATURE.
TIMING SHORTWAVE/S IN A ZONAL FLOW AT DAY 5 AND 6 IS A TOUGH CALL.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH OUR AREA
THOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS 30-
50 PCT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE SURFACE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ARE WEAK WITH THE ECMWF. THE SYSTEM IS A BIT MORE
DEVELOPED IN THE GFS. AT THIS POINT...SIDING WITH THE WEAKER ECMWF
AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. TUESDAY ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OUT AT DAY 7 IN A ZONAL
REGIME. HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

AFTER A COLD WEEKEND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER
OCNL IFR VSBYS WILL OCCASIONALLY IMPACT MKG AND AZO DUE TO
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

GALE FORCE WIND NORTH OF WHITEHALL WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT AS
EXPECTED. REALISTICALLY...THE RATE AT WHICH IT IS FALLING MAY
ALLOW IT TO BE DROPPED BY FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORY THEN SHIFTS TO
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON...POSSIBLY LEADING TO ICE BUILD UP
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME COOLER EACH DAY THIS WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW FREEZING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR SEEMS TO MAKE IT
IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS AND SOME AREAS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY ASSIST IN ICE FORMATION FOR STREAMS AND RIVERS...BECOMING
MORE OF A FOCUS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF RUNOFF. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL STAY HUGGED ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BORDERING COUNTIES AND OTHER AREAS TYPICAL OF
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL JUST BE A DELAYED CONCERN IF ADDITIONAL
LIQUID MOISTURE IS RECEIVED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. AS FOR NOW...THE
TOTALS OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK ARE ONLY LOCALLY HIGH NEAR THE
LAKE WITH AREA WIDE AVERAGES STAYING RELATIVELY LOW WHEN
CONSIDERING THE EPISODIC NATURE OF THE EVENT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-056-
     064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ038-050-
     072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ848-849.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK





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