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000
FXUS63 KGRR 310728
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST TODAY WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND COLD AIR WILL RUSH
IN. RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL MIX WITH SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDY AND COLD HALLOWEEN WEATHER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE WIND ADVISORY. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS WISCONSIN
AT 07Z SHOW GUSTS FROM 25 TO 32 KNOTS IN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THIS AREA WILL BE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY
WHEN SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW SOME STRONGER WINDS TO
REACH THE SFC.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF TODAY. A BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ATTM WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS BACK IN WISCONSIN AND THE MICHIGAN
UPPER PENINSULA. THESE SHOULD FILL IN THIS MORNING AS SHARP UPPER
TROUGH AXIS DIGS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND H5 LOW CUTS OFF.
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDER THREAT TODAY IS DEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT
FROM THE FORECAST...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW ANY SFC HEATING
TO PRODUCE SOME UPDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON. SO THERE COULD BE SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS OF SNOW OR GRAUPEL THAT WOULD WHITEN THE GROUND IN
A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGH GROUND UP NORTH.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE AS FLOW
GOES NORTH AND NORTHEAST. QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER TO FOLLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

WE ARE WATCHING A COUPLE OF POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS THAT COULD
PRODUCING MINOR IMPACTS TO THE AREA. ONE COMES IN DURING THE MON
NIGHT AND TUE TIME FRAME...AND THE OTHER COMES IN DURING THE WED
NIGHT AND THU TIME FRAME.

THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT QUIET WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. AS THIS SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA...WE WILL SEE
THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF THE WRN U.S. COAST.
THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...AND MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY ON TUE.
THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA A DECENT SHOT OF SOME RAINFALL.

WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WX THEN FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE AREA. THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN WILL COME WED NIGHT
AND THU. A JET STREAK COMING IN FROM OFF OF THE PACIFIC WILL HELP TO
DIG ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL NOT BE AS FAR
SOUTH...AND WILL NOT HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF IT UNTIL THE
TROUGH IS EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM JUSTIFIES HAVING A CHC OF
SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE... HOWEVER THE CHCS WILL BE KEPT LOW FOR
THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z THIS
MORNING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL
THEN IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS ARE PROGRESSING SE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER CIGS WILL FORM OVERHEAD WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS AROUND THE AREA WITH
CIGS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND THE LOW END OF MVFR THROUGH 12Z. CIGS
WILL REMAIN LOW WITH SHOWERS AROUND. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
WILL GUST WELL INTO THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE THROUGH SUNSET TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS. SHOWERS SHOULD THEN MOVE OUT AT
MOST LOCATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR AND THEN CLEAR OUT WITH THE NORTH WIND AND
LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE GALE WARNING. EXPECT NORTH GALES ALONG THE
NEARSHORE TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN QUICK
DECREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES AND CONDITIONS BECOMING FAIRLY CALM BY
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

QPF THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
THE RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO






000
FXUS63 KGRR 310536
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
136 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY.  RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.  THEN AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY.  BY FRIDAY EVENING MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW ON GRASSY AREAS.  WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE STRONG INTO
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...AND 45
MPH INLAND.  THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY 40 TO 45.  ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID WEEK.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY...INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL
BE DELAYED A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. HIGH POPS STILL WARRANTED.
INCOMING GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. CLOSE CALL FOR WARNING CRITERIA WINDS ON THE LAKESHORE.
UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS LOWER POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BE COMING INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING
AS COLD ADVECTION POURS IN BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT.  WILL BE
HOISTING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AS TREE LIMBS COULD COME DOWN
ALONG WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  RAIN WILL SPREAD IN WITH THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE ON FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ENHANCED BY THE LAKE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS H8 TEMPS DIP TO AROUND -4C
BY 12Z FRI.

EXPECT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY AS H8 TEMPS CONTINUE DOWNWARD TOWARD -8C BY FRIDAY
EVENING.  THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...CONTINUES TO SHOW A
DEFORMATION ZONE COMING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD
COME IN AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT AS THE PCPN INTENSIFIES EXPECT IT
TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.  LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER AS WINDS PIVOT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST.  A QUICK BURST OF
SNOW WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE MAY PUT DOWN UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW.
THE FAVORED AREAS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 10 REGION.  AND ALSO
OVER THE SE CWA AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.  THE SE
CWA MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMING OFF OF LAKE HURON
FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THE WIND...MIXING SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY.  WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 30
MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.  IT SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER INLAND...BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH US INTO
ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM FRIDAY/S ACTIVE WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN A COLD NIGHT...WHERE LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE 20S IN MANY AREAS. THE FAR NORTHEAST UP TOWARDS
CLARE WILL SEE LOWS AROUND 20.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CREST THE RIDGE ACROSS CANADA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH AROUND 40 DEGREES WHICH WILL BE 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. READINGS WILL PUSH BACK TO NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z THIS
MORNING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL
THEN IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS ARE PROGRESSING SE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER CIGS WILL FORM OVERHEAD WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS AROUND THE AREA WITH
CIGS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND THE LOW END OF MVFR THROUGH 12Z. CIGS
WILL REMAIN LOW WITH SHOWERS AROUND. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
WILL GUST WELL INTO THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE THROUGH SUNSET TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS. SHOWERS SHOULD THEN MOVE OUT AT
MOST LOCATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR AND THEN CLEAR OUT WITH THE NORTH WIND AND
LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

CLOSE CALL FOR STORM CRITERIA WINDS. STILL A LOT OF GUIDANCE
COMING IN. THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH MAKES ADDS TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE FORECAST. WILL
MAINTAIN THE HIGH END GALE. AS FOR THE TIMING....STILL LOOKS LIKE
CLOSE TO 8 AM FOR THE START OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED...THE PERIOD OF PCPN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...MJS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 310225
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1025 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY.  RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.  THEN AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY.  BY FRIDAY EVENING MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW ON GRASSY AREAS.  WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE STRONG INTO
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...AND 45
MPH INLAND.  THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY 40 TO 45.  ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID WEEK.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY...INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL
BE DELAYED A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. HIGH POPS STILL WARRANTED.
INCOMING GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. CLOSE CALL FOR WARNING CRITERIA WINDS ON THE LAKESHORE.
UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS LOWER POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BE COMING INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING
AS COLD ADVECTION POURS IN BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT.  WILL BE
HOISTING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AS TREE LIMBS COULD COME DOWN
ALONG WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  RAIN WILL SPREAD IN WITH THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE ON FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ENHANCED BY THE LAKE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS H8 TEMPS DIP TO AROUND -4C
BY 12Z FRI.

EXPECT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY AS H8 TEMPS CONTINUE DOWNWARD TOWARD -8C BY FRIDAY
EVENING.  THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...CONTINUES TO SHOW A
DEFORMATION ZONE COMING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD
COME IN AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT AS THE PCPN INTENSIFIES EXPECT IT
TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.  LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER AS WINDS PIVOT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST.  A QUICK BURST OF
SNOW WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE MAY PUT DOWN UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW.
THE FAVORED AREAS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 10 REGION.  AND ALSO
OVER THE SE CWA AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.  THE SE
CWA MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMING OFF OF LAKE HURON
FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THE WIND...MIXING SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY.  WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 30
MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.  IT SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER INLAND...BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH US INTO
ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM FRIDAY/S ACTIVE WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN A COLD NIGHT...WHERE LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE 20S IN MANY AREAS. THE FAR NORTHEAST UP TOWARDS
CLARE WILL SEE LOWS AROUND 20.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CREST THE RIDGE ACROSS CANADA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH AROUND 40 DEGREES WHICH WILL BE 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. READINGS WILL PUSH BACK TO NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

IMPACTS TO AVIATORS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD IN SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN.

CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR LEVEL...MAINLY
AFTER 06Z WITH RAIN MOVING IN. THERE IS A RISK FOR IFR AFTER
06Z...BUT I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD IT TO THE 06Z TO 12Z
PERIOD. AFTER 12Z...THERE IS SOME IFR IN THE FORECAST WITH
VISIBILITIES LOWERING. CLOUD BASES COULD LOWER INTO THAT CATEGORY
AS WELL. THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW
DURING THE DAY AS WINDS INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. GUSTS OVER 40 KT
ARE LIKELY FOR LAKESHORE AIRPORTS WITH INLAND VALUES OVER 32 KNOTS
EXPECTED.

THERE IS A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT THE RISK IS TOO LOW FOR KMKG TO ADD
IT TO THE FORECAST.

I DID DECREASE THE PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

CLOSE CALL FOR STORM CRITERIA WINDS. STILL A LOT OF GUIDANCE
COMING IN. THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH MAKES ADDS TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE FORECAST. WILL
MAINTAIN THE HIGH END GALE. AS FOR THE TIMING....STILL LOOKS LIKE
CLOSE TO 8 AM FOR THE START OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED...THE PERIOD OF PCPN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...MJS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 302321
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
721 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY.  RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.  THEN AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY.  BY FRIDAY EVENING MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW ON GRASSY AREAS.  WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE STRONG INTO
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...AND 45
MPH INLAND.  THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY 40 TO 45.  ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID WEEK.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY...INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BE COMING INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING
AS COLD ADVECTION POURS IN BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT.  WILL BE
HOISTING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AS TREE LIMBS COULD COME DOWN
ALONG WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  RAIN WILL SPREAD IN WITH THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE ON FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ENHANCED BY THE LAKE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS H8 TEMPS DIP TO AROUND -4C
BY 12Z FRI.

EXPECT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY AS H8 TEMPS CONTINUE DOWNWARD TOWARD -8C BY FRIDAY
EVENING.  THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...CONTINUES TO SHOW A
DEFORMATION ZONE COMING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD
COME IN AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT AS THE PCPN INTENSIFIES EXPECT IT
TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.  LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER AS WINDS PIVOT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST.  A QUICK BURST OF
SNOW WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE MAY PUT DOWN UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW.
THE FAVORED AREAS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 10 REGION.  AND ALSO
OVER THE SE CWA AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.  THE SE
CWA MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMING OFF OF LAKE HURON
FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THE WIND...MIXING SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY.  WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 30
MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.  IT SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER INLAND...BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH US INTO
ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM FRIDAY/S ACTIVE WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN A COLD NIGHT...WHERE LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE 20S IN MANY AREAS. THE FAR NORTHEAST UP TOWARDS
CLARE WILL SEE LOWS AROUND 20.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CREST THE RIDGE ACROSS CANADA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH AROUND 40 DEGREES WHICH WILL BE 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. READINGS WILL PUSH BACK TO NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

IMPACTS TO AVIATORS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD IN SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN.

CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR LEVEL...MAINLY
AFTER 06Z WITH RAIN MOVING IN. THERE IS A RISK FOR IFR AFTER
06Z...BUT I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD IT TO THE 06Z TO 12Z
PERIOD. AFTER 12Z...THERE IS SOME IFR IN THE FORECAST WITH
VISIBILITIES LOWERING. CLOUD BASES COULD LOWER INTO THAT CATEGORY
AS WELL. THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW
DURING THE DAY AS WINDS INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. GUSTS OVER 40 KT
ARE LIKELY FOR LAKESHORE AIRPORTS WITH INLAND VALUES OVER 32 KNOTS
EXPECTED.

THERE IS A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT THE RISK IS TOO LOW FOR KMKG TO ADD
IT TO THE FORECAST.

I DID DECREASE THE PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING WHICH GOES INTO AFFECT EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.  GUST APPROACHING STORM FORCE IS EXPECTED FURTHER OFFSHORE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED...THE PERIOD OF PCPN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK








000
FXUS63 KGRR 301938
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY.  RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.  THEN AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY.  BY FRIDAY EVENING MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW ON GRASSY AREAS.  WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE STRONG INTO
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...AND 45
MPH INLAND.  THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY 40 TO 45.  ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID WEEK.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY...INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BE COMING INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING
AS COLD ADVECTION POURS IN BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT.  WILL BE
HOISTING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AS TREE LIMBS COULD COME DOWN
ALONG WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  RAIN WILL SPREAD IN WITH THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE ON FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ENHANCED BY THE LAKE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS H8 TEMPS DIP TO AROUND -4C
BY 12Z FRI.

EXPECT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY AS H8 TEMPS CONTINUE DOWNWARD TOWARD -8C BY FRIDAY
EVENING.  THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...CONTINUES TO SHOW A
DEFORMATION ZONE COMING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD
COME IN AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT AS THE PCPN INTENSIFIES EXPECT IT
TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.  LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER AS WINDS PIVOT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST.  A QUICK BURST OF
SNOW WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE MAY PUT DOWN UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW.
THE FAVORED AREAS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 10 REGION.  AND ALSO
OVER THE SE CWA AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.  THE SE
CWA MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMING OFF OF LAKE HURON
FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THE WIND...MIXING SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY.  WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 30
MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.  IT SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER INLAND...BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH US INTO
ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM FRIDAY/S ACTIVE WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN A COLD NIGHT...WHERE LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE 20S IN MANY AREAS. THE FAR NORTHEAST UP TOWARDS
CLARE WILL SEE LOWS AROUND 20.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CREST THE RIDGE ACROSS CANADA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH AROUND 40 DEGREES WHICH WILL BE 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. READINGS WILL PUSH BACK TO NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. IN
ADDITION...FRIDAY MORNING STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH VARIABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS IN THE 3100-5000FT RANGE.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PUSH IN QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 04Z
AND 09Z TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN AFTER 04Z WITH AVIATION
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TRENDING TO IFR AFTER 12Z DUE TO LIMITED
VISIBILITIES. SNOW WILL BEGIN MIXING IN AFTER 15Z.

WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING...BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THE WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA...SO IMPACTING KMKG AROUND 12Z AND HITTING KJXN AROUND 17Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS TO IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING WHICH GOES INTO AFFECT EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.  GUST APPROACHING STORM FORCE IS EXPECTED FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED...THE PERIOD OF PCPN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK











000
FXUS63 KGRR 301835
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
235 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE ON HALLOWEEN
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. NORTH WINDS
GUSTING OVER 40 MPH COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE DAY. ALSO
MANY AREAS WILL SEE THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON THE GRASS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATER TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96 AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.

INITIAL THOUGHTS ON THE FRIDAY FORECAST. WILL STRONGLY CONSIDER A
WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTS TO 45 MPH
SEEM PLAUSIBLE INLAND...AND MAYBE 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT...ALONG WITH WIND
CHILL READINGS DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S. DEFORMATION RAIN AND SNOW
PUSHES IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW.  STILL
THINK ANY ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AS 00Z MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON THE INTENSE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
THE COLD TEMPERATURES... ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST TASTE OF
WINTER. HOWEVER THE SNOW POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TOO.

P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS CHALLENGING. THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
MOVES IN RATHER QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AND LOOKS TO ARRIVE WHILE THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS STILL OVERHEAD.
THIS COULD MAKE THINGS VERY INTERESTING AS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z WHILE THERE IS EVEN SOME SEMBLANCE
OF A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE OVERHEAD.

IF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE PRECIP RATES OCCUR ON FRIDAY... WHICH LOOKS
QUITE POSSIBLE...SOME QUICK WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL WOULD BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION
NEAR/NORTH OF U.S. 10... BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ACCUMULATIONS
ELSEWHERE. ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE WARMTH OF THE GROUND THIS
EARLY IN THE SEASON... BUT HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RATES COULD EASILY
OVERCOME THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO FAIR SKIES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND GIVE US A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE
OF RAIN. INSTABILITY IS LOW SO THUNDER ISN/T EXPECTED. A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM. A STRONG FETCH OFF THE
GULF WILL RIDE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE`LL START TO DRY OUT
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES BY. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ISN/T
COMING OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA SO WE WON/T SEE MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE
DROP BEHIND IT.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY TO
THE LOWER 50S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. IN
ADDITION...FRIDAY MORNING STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH VARIABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS IN THE 3100-5000FT RANGE.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PUSH IN QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 04Z
AND 09Z TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN AFTER 04Z WITH AVIATION
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TRENDING TO IFR AFTER 12Z DUE TO LIMITED
VISIBILITIES. SNOW WILL BEGIN MIXING IN AFTER 15Z.

WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING...BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THE WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA...SO IMPACTING KMKG AROUND 12Z AND HITTING KJXN AROUND 17Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS TO IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS AT TIMES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE GALE WARNING FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES
NEEDED THERE. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS COULD
OCCUR... WHICH IS STORM WARNING CRITERIA... HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE
EVENT SHOULD BE A GALE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHATEVER QPF WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK WILL BE LIGHT SO IT SHOULD HAVE
NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...MEADE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 301520
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1120 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE ON HALLOWEEN
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. NORTH WINDS
GUSTING OVER 40 MPH COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE DAY. ALSO
MANY AREAS WILL SEE THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON THE GRASS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATER TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96 AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.

INITIAL THOUGHTS ON THE FRIDAY FORECAST. WILL STRONGLY CONSIDER A
WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTS TO 45 MPH
SEEM PLAUSIBLE INLAND...AND MAYBE 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT...ALONG WITH WIND
CHILL READINGS DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S. DEFORMATION RAIN AND SNOW
PUSHES IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW.  STILL
THINK ANY ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AS 00Z MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON THE INTENSE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
THE COLD TEMPERATURES... ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST TASTE OF
WINTER. HOWEVER THE SNOW POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TOO.

P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS CHALLENGING. THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
MOVES IN RATHER QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AND LOOKS TO ARRIVE WHILE THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS STILL OVERHEAD.
THIS COULD MAKE THINGS VERY INTERESTING AS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z WHILE THERE IS EVEN SOME SEMBLANCE
OF A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE OVERHEAD.

IF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE PRECIP RATES OCCUR ON FRIDAY... WHICH LOOKS
QUITE POSSIBLE...SOME QUICK WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL WOULD BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION
NEAR/NORTH OF U.S. 10... BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ACCUMULATIONS
ELSEWHERE. ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE WARMTH OF THE GROUND THIS
EARLY IN THE SEASON... BUT HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RATES COULD EASILY
OVERCOME THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO FAIR SKIES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND GIVE US A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE
OF RAIN. INSTABILITY IS LOW SO THUNDER ISN/T EXPECTED. A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM. A STRONG FETCH OFF THE
GULF WILL RIDE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE`LL START TO DRY OUT
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES BY. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ISN/T
COMING OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA SO WE WON/T SEE MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE
DROP BEHIND IT.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY TO
THE LOWER 50S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CIGS AROUND 3500-4000 FT ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
AFTER 06Z AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY LOOK FOR CIGS TO LOWER
INTO MVFR CATEGORY WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.

THE OUTLOOK BEYOND 12Z FRIDAY IS FOR SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS
INCLUDING NORTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS
DESCENDING BELOW 1000 FT AGL. THIS WILL SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR OCNL
REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE GALE WARNING FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES
NEEDED THERE. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS COULD
OCCUR... WHICH IS STORM WARNING CRITERIA... HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE
EVENT SHOULD BE A GALE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHATEVER QPF WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK WILL BE LIGHT SO IT SHOULD HAVE
NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...MEADE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 301145
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
745 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE ON HALLOWEEN
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. NORTH WINDS
GUSTING OVER 40 MPH COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE DAY. ALSO
MANY AREAS WILL SEE THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON THE GRASS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AS 00Z MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON THE INTENSE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
THE COLD TEMPERATURES... ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST TASTE OF
WINTER. HOWEVER THE SNOW POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TOO.

P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS CHALLENGING. THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
MOVES IN RATHER QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AND LOOKS TO ARRIVE WHILE THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS STILL OVERHEAD.
THIS COULD MAKE THINGS VERY INTERESTING AS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z WHILE THERE IS EVEN SOME SEMBLANCE
OF A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE OVERHEAD.

IF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE PRECIP RATES OCCUR ON FRIDAY... WHICH LOOKS
QUITE POSSIBLE...SOME QUICK WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL WOULD BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION
NEAR/NORTH OF U.S. 10... BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ACCUMULATIONS
ELSEWHERE. ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE WARMTH OF THE GROUND THIS
EARLY IN THE SEASON... BUT HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RATES COULD EASILY
OVERCOME THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO FAIR SKIES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND GIVE US A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE
OF RAIN. INSTABILITY IS LOW SO THUNDER ISN/T EXPECTED. A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM. A STRONG FETCH OFF THE
GULF WILL RIDE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE`LL START TO DRY OUT
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES BY. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ISN/T
COMING OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA SO WE WON/T SEE MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE
DROP BEHIND IT.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY TO
THE LOWER 50S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CIGS AROUND 3500-4000 FT ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
AFTER 06Z AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY LOOK FOR CIGS TO LOWER
INTO MVFR CATEGORY WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.

THE OUTLOOK BEYOND 12Z FRIDAY IS FOR SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS
INCLUDING NORTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS
DESCENDING BELOW 1000 FT AGL. THIS WILL SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR OCNL
REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE GALE WARNING FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES
NEEDED THERE. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS COULD
OCCUR... WHICH IS STORM WARNING CRITERIA... HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE
EVENT SHOULD BE A GALE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHATEVER QPF WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK WILL BE LIGHT SO IT SHOULD HAVE
NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...MEADE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 300730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE ON HALLOWEEN
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. NORTH WINDS
GUSTING OVER 40 MPH COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL CREATE
WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE DAY. ALSO MANY AREAS
WILL SEE THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON THE GRASS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AS 00Z MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON THE INTENSE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
THE COLD TEMPERATURES... ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST TASTE OF
WINTER. HOWEVER THE SNOW POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TOO.

P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS CHALLENGING. THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
MOVES IN RATHER QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AND LOOKS TO ARRIVE WHILE THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS STILL OVERHEAD.
THIS COULD MAKE THINGS VERY INTERESTING AS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z WHILE THERE IS EVEN SOME SEMBLANCE
OF A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE OVERHEAD.

IF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE PRECIP RATES OCCUR ON FRIDAY... WHICH LOOKS
QUITE POSSIBLE...SOME QUICK WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL WOULD BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION
NEAR/NORTH OF U.S. 10... BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ACCUMULATIONS
ELSEWHERE. ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE WARMTH OF THE GROUND THIS
EARLY IN THE SEASON... BUT HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RATES COULD EASILY
OVERCOME THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO FAIR SKIES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND GIVE US A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE
OF RAIN. INSTABILITY IS LOW SO THUNDER ISN/T EXPECTED. A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM. A STRONG FETCH OFF THE
GULF WILL RIDE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE`LL START TO DRY OUT
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES BY. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ISN/T
COMING OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA SO WE WON/T SEE MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE
DROP BEHIND IT.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY TO
THE LOWER 50S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z FRIDAY RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE GALE WARNING FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES
NEEDED THERE. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS COULD
OCCUR... WHICH IS STORM WARNING CRITERIA... HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE
EVENT SHOULD BE A GALE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHATEVER QPF WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK WILL BE LIGHT SO IT SHOULD HAVE
NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...MEADE











000
FXUS63 KGRR 300552
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
152 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THAT WILL
LIKELY CHANCE TO ALL SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END
BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY ON HALLOWEEN TOO. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE SEASON TO DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ON FRIDAY. A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME
ALL SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS BY LATER AFTERNOON. SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS AREA POSSIBLE FRIDAY...MOST OF THAT BEING NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 96.

THE PHASING OF A STRONGLY DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM RESULTS IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. THERE
IS MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO BRING BETWEEN .25 AND .50
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE CWA. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE
WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SINCE THE MODELS
OVERALL DO NOT HANDLE ARCTIC ORIGIN WAVES ALL THAT WELL THE STRONG
GFS/ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER WAY TO GO.

AS FOR THE QUESTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE... I LOOK AT THE HEIGHT
OF THE 0C ISOTHERM IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AS MY PRIMARY TOOL. THIS
SHOWS THE HEIGHT FALLING TO NEAR 1000 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING SO
WITH IT THAT CLOSE TO THE GROUND I HAVE TO BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SNOW BY THEN. SINCE THAT IS TOWARD THE
END OF THE EVENT... ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED. AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. I
WOULD THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WOULD BE THE
LIMIT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS.

ONE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS EVENT IS THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN. THE GFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
SHOWS AS MUCH AS 300 J/KG OVER OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND
INTO AREAS SOUTH OF GRAND RAPIDS BY 18Z FRIDAY. I ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST FOR AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF GRAND
RAPIDS TO COVER THIS ISSUE.

THE OTHER CONSIDERATION IS THE WIND... THERE IS 50 TO 60 KNOTS IN
THE 1000 TO 2000 AGL LAYER BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND
GIVEN THIS IS DURING THE DAY AND THERE IS STRONG COLD ADVECTION...
I HAVE TO BELIEVE A LOT OF THIS WILL MIX TO THE GROUND SO I WOULD
THINK A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED. TO EARLY FOR THAT YET
THROUGH. I DID INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH FOR NOW THROUGH.

IN THE SHORT TERM THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS CAUSING THE SHOWERS IS
LEAVING THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW OPEN CELL CU TO OUR NORTH MOVING SOUTH AND
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTH THIS EVENING SO ALL OF THE
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING TONIGHT
INLAND OF US-131. TOWARD MORNING WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY SO THE
LAKE CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE INLAND SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WE BEGIN ON SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD ALONG
WITH VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE. AN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY SLIDES
IN FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING THAT A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES EXPECTED. FEEL THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL LIKELY KEEP LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND OVER IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MI.

A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS THROUGH GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WHICH IS THE TIME FRAME WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH.
HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL...IN THE LOWER
50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z FRIDAY RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 500 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

I HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS AND WAVES ARE
DIMINISHING IN THE NEAR SHORE AND WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN TONIGHT
I WOULD EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. I EXPECT WINDS OF GALE FORCE TO
FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SO I ADDED THOSE TO THE FORECAST TOO.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHATEVER QPF WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK WILL BE LIGHT SO IT SHOULD HAVE
NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 292311
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
711 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THAT WILL
LIKELY CHANCE TO ALL SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END
BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY ON HALLOWEEN TOO. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE SEASON TO DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ON FRIDAY. A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME
ALL SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS BY LATER AFTERNOON. SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS AREA POSSIBLE FRIDAY...MOST OF THAT BEING NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 96.

THE PHASING OF A STRONGLY DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM RESULTS IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. THERE
IS MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO BRING BETWEEN .25 AND .50
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE CWA. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE
WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SINCE THE MODELS
OVERALL DO NOT HANDLE ARCTIC ORIGIN WAVES ALL THAT WELL THE STRONG
GFS/ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER WAY TO GO.

AS FOR THE QUESTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE... I LOOK AT THE HEIGHT
OF THE 0C ISOTHERM IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AS MY PRIMARY TOOL. THIS
SHOWS THE HEIGHT FALLING TO NEAR 1000 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING SO
WITH IT THAT CLOSE TO THE GROUND I HAVE TO BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SNOW BY THEN. SINCE THAT IS TOWARD THE
END OF THE EVENT... ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED. AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. I
WOULD THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WOULD BE THE
LIMIT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS.

ONE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS EVENT IS THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN. THE GFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
SHOWS AS MUCH AS 300 J/KG OVER OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND
INTO AREAS SOUTH OF GRAND RAPIDS BY 18Z FRIDAY. I ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST FOR AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF GRAND
RAPIDS TO COVER THIS ISSUE.

THE OTHER CONSIDERATION IS THE WIND... THERE IS 50 TO 60 KNOTS IN
THE 1000 TO 2000 AGL LAYER BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND
GIVEN THIS IS DURING THE DAY AND THERE IS STRONG COLD ADVECTION...
I HAVE TO BELIEVE A LOT OF THIS WILL MIX TO THE GROUND SO I WOULD
THINK A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED. TO EARLY FOR THAT YET
THROUGH. I DID INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH FOR NOW THROUGH.

IN THE SHORT TERM THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS CAUSING THE SHOWERS IS
LEAVING THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW OPEN CELL CU TO OUR NORTH MOVING SOUTH AND
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTH THIS EVENING SO ALL OF THE
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING TONIGHT
INLAND OF US-131. TOWARD MORNING WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY SO THE
LAKE CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE INLAND SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WE BEGIN ON SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD ALONG
WITH VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE. AN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY SLIDES
IN FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING THAT A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES EXPECTED. FEEL THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL LIKELY KEEP LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND OVER IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MI.

A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS THROUGH GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WHICH IS THE TIME FRAME WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH.
HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL...IN THE LOWER
50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR WEATHER TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
MVFR CLOUDS AS A RESULT OF LAKE MOISTURE COULD OCCUR NEAR THE
LAKESHORE...BUT BASED ON TRENDS...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE EXPANDED.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH.

LOOKING AHEAD...A FAST MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES THU NIGHT
INTO FRI WITH IMPACTS LIKELY TO AVIATORS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 500 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

I HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS AND WAVES ARE
DIMINISHING IN THE NEAR SHORE AND WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN TONIGHT
I WOULD EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. I EXPECT WINDS OF GALE FORCE TO
FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SO I ADDED THOSE TO THE FORECAST TOO.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHATEVER QPF WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK WILL BE LIGHT SO IT SHOULD HAVE
NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 292100
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
500 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THAT WILL
LIKELY CHANCE TO ALL SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END
BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY ON HALLOWEEN TOO. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE SEASON TO DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ON FRIDAY. A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME
ALL SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS BY LATER AFTERNOON. SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS AREA POSSIBLE FRIDAY...MOST OF THAT BEING NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 96.

THE PHASING OF A STRONGLY DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM RESULTS IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. THERE
IS MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO BRING BETWEEN .25 AND .50
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE CWA. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE
WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SINCE THE MODELS
OVERALL DO NOT HANDLE ARCTIC ORIGIN WAVES ALL THAT WELL THE STRONG
GFS/ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER WAY TO GO.

AS FOR THE QUESTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE... I LOOK AT THE HEIGHT
OF THE 0C ISOTHERM IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AS MY PRIMARY TOOL. THIS
SHOWS THE HEIGHT FALLING TO NEAR 1000 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING SO
WITH IT THAT CLOSE TO THE GROUND I HAVE TO BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SNOW BY THEN. SINCE THAT IS TOWARD THE
END OF THE EVENT... ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED. AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. I
WOULD THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WOULD BE THE
LIMIT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS.

ONE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS EVENT IS THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN. THE GFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
SHOWS AS MUCH AS 300 J/KG OVER OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND
INTO AREAS SOUTH OF GRAND RAPIDS BY 18Z FRIDAY. I ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST FOR AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF GRAND
RAPIDS TO COVER THIS ISSUE.

THE OTHER CONSIDERATION IS THE WIND... THERE IS 50 TO 60 KNOTS IN
THE 1000 TO 2000 AGL LAYER BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND
GIVEN THIS IS DURING THE DAY AND THERE IS STRONG COLD ADVECTION...
I HAVE TO BELIEVE A LOT OF THIS WILL MIX TO THE GROUND SO I WOULD
THINK A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED. TO EARLY FOR THAT YET
THROUGH. I DID INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH FOR NOW THROUGH.

IN THE SHORT TERM THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS CAUSING THE SHOWERS IS
LEAVING THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW OPEN CELL CU TO OUR NORTH MOVING SOUTH AND
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTH THIS EVENING SO ALL OF THE
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING TONIGHT
INLAND OF US-131. TOWARD MORNING WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY SO THE
LAKE CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE INLAND SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WE BEGIN ON SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD ALONG
WITH VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE. AN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY SLIDES
IN FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING THAT A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES EXPECTED. FEEL THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL LIKELY KEEP LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND OVER IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MI.

A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS THROUGH GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WHICH IS THE TIME FRAME WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH.
HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL...IN THE LOWER
50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

CEILINGS AROUND 3000FT ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH A
VARIANCE BOTH ABOVE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AND BELOW INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE FIRST FOUR HOURS AS THE
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY. OVERNIGHT...FELT THAT MVFR
CEILINGS MAY BE MORE PREVALENT TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH VFR
INLAND.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR LAKE GENERATED CLOUDS
ALL THE WAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...THE QUESTION IS WILL THEY BE
ABOVE OR BELOW 3000FT. DECIDED TO GO MORE PESSIMISTICALLY TOWARDS
LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND TIME OF DAY.
THE HOLES IN THE OVERCAST UPSTREAM THOUGH ARE A BIT CONCERNING.
FEEL SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...SO NO REAL RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITIES. A
NORTHWEST WIND OF 8-16 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 500 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

I HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS AND WAVES ARE
DIMINISHING IN THE NEAR SHORE AND WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN TONIGHT
I WOULD EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. I EXPECT WINDS OF GALE FORCE TO
FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SO I ADDED THOSE TO THE FORECAST TOO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHATEVER QPF WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK WILL BE LIGHT SO IT SHOULD HAVE
NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 291953 CCA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
347 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THAT WILL
LIKELY CHANCE TO ALL SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END
BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY ON HALLOWEEN TOO. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE SEASON TO DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ON FRIDAY. A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME
ALL SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS BY LATER AFTERNOON. SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS AREA POSSIBLE FRIDAY...MOST OF THAT BEING NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 96.

THE PHASING OF A STRONGLY DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM RESULTS IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. THERE
IS MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO BRING BETWEEN .25 AND .50
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE CWA. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE
WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SINCE THE MODELS
OVERALL DO NOT HANDLE ARCTIC ORIGIN WAVES ALL THAT WELL THE STRONG
GFS/ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER WAY TO GO.

AS FOR THE QUESTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE... I LOOK AT THE HEIGHT
OF THE 0C ISOTHERM IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AS MY PRIMARY TOOL. THIS
SHOWS THE HEIGHT FALLING TO NEAR 1000 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING SO
WITH IT THAT CLOSE TO THE GROUND I HAVE TO BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SNOW BY THEN. SINCE THAT IS TOWARD THE
END OF THE EVENT... ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED. AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. I
WOULD THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WOULD BE THE
LIMIT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS.

ONE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS EVENT IS THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN. THE GFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
SHOWS AS MUCH AS 300 J/KG OVER OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND
INTO AREAS SOUTH OF GRAND RAPIDS BY 18Z FRIDAY. I ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST FOR AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF GRAND
RAPIDS TO COVER THIS ISSUE.

THE OTHER CONSIDERATION IS THE WIND... THERE IS 50 TO 60 KNOTS IN
THE 1000 TO 2000 AGL LAYER BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND
GIVEN THIS IS DURING THE DAY AND THERE IS STRONG COLD ADVECTION...
I HAVE TO BELIEVE A LOT OF THIS WILL MIX TO THE GROUND SO I WOULD
THINK A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED. TO EARLY FOR THAT YET
THROUGH. I DID INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH FOR NOW THROUGH.

IN THE SHORT TERM THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS CAUSING THE SHOWERS IS
LEAVING THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW OPEN CELL CU TO OUR NORTH MOVING SOUTH AND
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTH THIS EVENING SO ALL OF THE
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING TONIGHT
INLAND OF US-131. TOWARD MORNING WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY SO THE
LAKE CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE INLAND SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
THURSDAY.



.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WE BEGIN ON SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD ALONG
WITH VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE. AN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY SLIDES
IN FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING THAT A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES EXPECTED. FEEL THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL LIKELY KEEP LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND OVER IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MI.

A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS THROUGH GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WHICH IS THE TIME FRAME WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH.
HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL...IN THE LOWER
50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

CEILINGS AROUND 3000FT ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH A
VARIANCE BOTH ABOVE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AND BELOW INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE FIRST FOUR HOURS AS THE
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY. OVERNIGHT...FELT THAT MVFR
CEILINGS MAY BE MORE PREVALENT TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH VFR
INLAND.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR LAKE GENERATED CLOUDS
ALL THE WAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...THE QUESTION IS WILL THEY BE
ABOVE OR BELOW 3000FT. DECIDED TO GO MORE PESSIMISTICALLY TOWARDS
LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND TIME OF DAY.
THE HOLES IN THE OVERCAST UPSTREAM THOUGH ARE A BIT CONCERNING.
FEEL SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...SO NO REAL RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITIES. A
NORTHWEST WIND OF 8-16 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

I DID NOT CHANGE THE HEADLINES AT ALL. I DO BELIEVE WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING IN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AROUND 5 PM AS SUGGESTED IN THE FORECAST.

THE GALE WARNING MAY BE UPGRADED TO A STORM WARNING BUT I THROUGH
IT GOOD TO WAIT FROM ONE MORE SET OF MODEL RUNS (MIDNIGHT SHIFTS)
TO BE SURE IF WE ISSUE THE STORM WARNING... IT WILL NOT BE DROPPED
AGAIN LATER.

THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE NEAR SHORE AREAS
FRIDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN. MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SPC SREF 3 HOUR CALIBRATED
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FROM THE 09Z RUN SHOWS THIS NICELY BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z. SO I ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NEAR SHORE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHATEVER QPF WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK WILL BE LIGHT SO IT SHOULD HAVE
NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM










000
FXUS63 KGRR 291943
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THAT WILL
LIKELY CHANCE TO ALL SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END
BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY ON HALLOWEEN TOO. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE SEASON TO DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ON FRIDAY. A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME
ALL SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS BY LATER AFTERNOON. SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS AREA POSSIBLE FRIDAY...MOST OF THAT BEING NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 96.

THE PHASING OF A STRONGLY DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM RESULTS IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. THERE
IS MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO BRING BETWEEN .25 AND .50
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE CWA. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE
WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SINCE THE MODELS
OVERALL DO NOT HANDLE ARCTIC ORIGIN WAVES ALL THAT WELL THE STRONG
GFS/ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER WAY TO GO.

AS FOR THE QUESTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE... I LOOK AT THE HEIGHT
OF THE 0C ISOTHERM IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AS MY PRIMARY TOOL. THIS
SHOWS THE HEIGHT FALLING TO NEAR 1000 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING SO
WITH IT THAT CLOSE TO THE GROUND I HAVE TO BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SNOW BY THEN. SINCE THAT IS TOWARD THE
END OF THE EVENT... ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED. AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. I
WOULD THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WOULD BE THE
LIMIT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS.

THE OTHER CONSIDERATION IS THE WIND... THERE IS 50 TO 60 KNOTS IN
THE 1000 TO 2000 AGL LAYER BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND
GIVEN THIS IS DURING THE DAY AND THERE IS STRONG COLD ADVECTION...
I HAVE TO BELIEVE A LOT OF THIS WILL MIX TO THE GROUND SO I WOULD
THINK A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED. TO EARLY FOR THAT YET
THROUGH. I DID INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH FOR NOW THROUGH.

IN THE SHORT TERM THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS CAUSING THE SHOWERS IS
LEAVING THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW OPEN CELL CU TO OUR NORTH MOVING SOUTH AND
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTH THIS EVENING SO ALL OF THE
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING TONIGHT
INLAND OF US-131. TOWARD MORNING WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY SO THE
LAKE CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE INLAND SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
THURSDAY.



.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WE BEGIN ON SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD ALONG
WITH VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE. AN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY SLIDES
IN FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING THAT A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES EXPECTED. FEEL THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL LIKELY KEEP LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND OVER IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MI.

A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS THROUGH GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WHICH IS THE TIME FRAME WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH.
HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL...IN THE LOWER
50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

CEILINGS AROUND 3000FT ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH A
VARIANCE BOTH ABOVE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AND BELOW INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE FIRST FOUR HOURS AS THE
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY. OVERNIGHT...FELT THAT MVFR
CEILINGS MAY BE MORE PREVALENT TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH VFR
INLAND.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR LAKE GENERATED CLOUDS
ALL THE WAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...THE QUESTION IS WILL THEY BE
ABOVE OR BELOW 3000FT. DECIDED TO GO MORE PESSIMISTICALLY TOWARDS
LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND TIME OF DAY.
THE HOLES IN THE OVERCAST UPSTREAM THOUGH ARE A BIT CONCERNING.
FEEL SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...SO NO REAL RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITIES. A
NORTHWEST WIND OF 8-16 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

I DID NOT CHANGE THE HEADLINES AT ALL. I DO BELIEVE WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING IN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AROUND 5 PM AS SUGGESTED IN THE FORECAST.

THE GALE WARNING MAY BE UPGRADED TO A STORM WARNING BUT I THROUGH
IT GOOD TO WAIT FROM ONE MORE SET OF MODEL RUNS (MIDNIGHT SHIFTS)
TO BE SURE IF WE ISSUE THE STORM WARNING... IT WILL NOT BE DROPPED
AGAIN LATER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHATEVER QPF WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK WILL BE LIGHT SO IT SHOULD HAVE
NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 291809
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
209 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE HALLOWEEN WHEN A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT
BLASTS SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST OVER 40 MPH
AND OUR FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON MAY BE SEEN. THE COLD AIR
WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

I INCREASED THE POP TO CONDITIONAL OVER THE WESTERN CWA AS MOST
LOCATIONS WERE AND STILL ARE GETTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE
SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT OF MID LEVEL POCKET OF COLD AIR MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. ALL OF THIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND END THE
PRECIPITATION. WARM ADVECTION AT LOW TO MID LEVELS SETS IN BY
EARLY THIS EVENING WILL HELP END WHATEVER PRECIPITATION REMAINS BY
MID EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE COLD BLAST ON HALLOWEEN DAY IS THE MAIN FOCUS. INTENSE PV
ANOMALY IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE LOWER GRTLKS REGION ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE NOT
GOING WITH A PARTICULARLY STRONG SFC LOW. REGARDLESS... THE WINDS
CRANK UP CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT WITH TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOWER GRTLKS RGN SFC LOW AND THE SFC HIGH OVER
MINNESOTA.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS OVER 40
KTS AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND
FALLING TREE LIMBS ARE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS THE SNOW POTENTIAL ON HALLOWEEN... THE DGZ LOOKS PRETTY
HIGH ABOVE 7K FT. ALSO THE NORTH FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ABRUPT DRYING IN SW MI. HAVE KEPT A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FCST BUT AM LEANING TOWARD MOSTLY
RAIN BASED ON SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 40. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF U.S. 10 WHERE SNOW MAY BE MORE
PERSISTENT AND HAVE A CHANCE OF STICKING TO THE GRASS.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND -3C WILL
LEAD TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. IT
WILL BE BREEZY ALTHOUGH NOT AS BAD AS YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HALLOWEEN STORM MOVES AWAY FROM LOWER MICHIGAN.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWN WIND FROM
THE POINTS ON THE WESTERN CWA...AND A FEW SHSN OVER THE EASTERN CWA
DOWNWIND FROM LAKE HURON. 30KT NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY
BLOW SOME SHSN INLAND. WE INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE NE CWA FOR
THAT POSSIBILITY.

WE/LL SEE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRY WEATHER AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER
MICHIGAN BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY. THE SYSTEM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WON/T BE NEARLY AS DYNAMIC AS THE SYSTEM THIS
FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD SUFFICE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 AFTER WHICH A
WARMING TREND WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

CEILINGS AROUND 3000FT ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH A
VARIANCE BOTH ABOVE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AND BELOW INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE FIRST FOUR HOURS AS THE
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY. OVERNIGHT...FELT THAT MVFR
CEILINGS MAY BE MORE PREVALENT TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH VFR
INLAND.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR LAKE GENERATED CLOUDS
ALL THE WAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...THE QUESTION IS WILL THEY BE
ABOVE OR BELOW 3000FT. DECIDED TO GO MORE PESSIMISTICALLY TOWARDS
LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND TIME OF DAY.
THE HOLES IN THE OVERCAST UPSTREAM THOUGH ARE A BIT CONCERNING.
FEEL SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...SO NO REAL RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITIES. A
NORTHWEST WIND OF 8-16 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHILE SOMEWHAT UNCONVENTIONAL... WILL ISSUE GALE WARNING ALREADY FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO CAUSE HYDRO ISSUES AND NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY WX ANTICIPATED TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE HYDRO ISSUES SINCE BASIN AVG QPF
AMOUNTS OF ONLY UNDER A HALF OF AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...MEADE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 291524
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1124 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE HALLOWEEN WHEN A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT
BLASTS SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST OVER 40 MPH
AND OUR FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON MAY BE SEEN. THE COLD AIR
WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

I INCREASED THE POP TO CONDITIONAL OVER THE WESTERN CWA AS MOST
LOCATIONS WERE AND STILL ARE GETTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE
SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT OF MID LEVEL POCKET OF COLD AIR MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. ALL OF THIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND END THE
PRECIPITATION. WARM ADVECTION AT LOW TO MID LEVELS SETS IN BY
EARLY THIS EVENING WILL HELP END WHATEVER PRECIPITATION REMAINS BY
MID EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE COLD BLAST ON HALLOWEEN DAY IS THE MAIN FOCUS. INTENSE PV
ANOMALY IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE LOWER GRTLKS REGION ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE NOT
GOING WITH A PARTICULARLY STRONG SFC LOW. REGARDLESS... THE WINDS
CRANK UP CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT WITH TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOWER GRTLKS RGN SFC LOW AND THE SFC HIGH OVER
MINNESOTA.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS OVER 40
KTS AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND
FALLING TREE LIMBS ARE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS THE SNOW POTENTIAL ON HALLOWEEN... THE DGZ LOOKS PRETTY
HIGH ABOVE 7K FT. ALSO THE NORTH FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ABRUPT DRYING IN SW MI. HAVE KEPT A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FCST BUT AM LEANING TOWARD MOSTLY
RAIN BASED ON SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 40. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF U.S. 10 WHERE SNOW MAY BE MORE
PERSISTENT AND HAVE A CHANCE OF STICKING TO THE GRASS.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND -3C WILL
LEAD TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. IT
WILL BE BREEZY ALTHOUGH NOT AS BAD AS YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HALLOWEEN STORM MOVES AWAY FROM LOWER MICHIGAN.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWN WIND FROM
THE POINTS ON THE WESTERN CWA...AND A FEW SHSN OVER THE EASTERN CWA
DOWNWIND FROM LAKE HURON. 30KT NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY
BLOW SOME SHSN INLAND. WE INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE NE CWA FOR
THAT POSSIBILITY.

WE/LL SEE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRY WEATHER AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER
MICHIGAN BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY. THE SYSTEM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WON/T BE NEARLY AS DYNAMIC AS THE SYSTEM THIS
FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD SUFFICE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 AFTER WHICH A
WARMING TREND WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

CIGS OF 2500-3500 FT EXPECTED TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TOWARD 00Z. CIGS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY AOA
4000 FT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHILE SOMEWHAT UNCONVENTIONAL... WILL ISSUE GALE WARNING ALREADY FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO CAUSE HYDRO ISSUES AND NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY WX ANTICIPATED TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE HYDRO ISSUES SINCE BASIN AVG QPF
AMOUNTS OF ONLY UNDER A HALF OF AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...MEADE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 291140
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
740 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE HALLOWEEN WHEN A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT
BLASTS SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST OVER 40 MPH
AND OUR FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON MAY BE SEEN. THE COLD AIR
WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE COLD BLAST ON HALLOWEEN DAY IS THE MAIN FOCUS. INTENSE PV
ANOMALY IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE LOWER GRTLKS REGION ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE NOT
GOING WITH A PARTICULARLY STRONG SFC LOW. REGARDLESS... THE WINDS
CRANK UP CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT WITH TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOWER GRTLKS RGN SFC LOW AND THE SFC HIGH OVER
MINNESOTA.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS OVER 40
KTS AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND
FALLING TREE LIMBS ARE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS THE SNOW POTENTIAL ON HALLOWEEN... THE DGZ LOOKS PRETTY
HIGH ABOVE 7K FT. ALSO THE NORTH FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ABRUPT DRYING IN SW MI. HAVE KEPT A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FCST BUT AM LEANING TOWARD MOSTLY
RAIN BASED ON SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 40. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF U.S. 10 WHERE SNOW MAY BE MORE
PERSISTENT AND HAVE A CHANCE OF STICKING TO THE GRASS.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND -3C WILL
LEAD TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. IT
WILL BE BREEZY ALTHOUGH NOT AS BAD AS YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HALLOWEEN STORM MOVES AWAY FROM LOWER MICHIGAN.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWN WIND FROM
THE POINTS ON THE WESTERN CWA...AND A FEW SHSN OVER THE EASTERN CWA
DOWNWIND FROM LAKE HURON. 30KT NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY
BLOW SOME SHSN INLAND. WE INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE NE CWA FOR
THAT POSSIBILITY.

WE/LL SEE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRY WEATHER AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER
MICHIGAN BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY. THE SYSTEM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WON/T BE NEARLY AS DYNAMIC AS THE SYSTEM THIS
FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD SUFFICE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 AFTER WHICH A
WARMING TREND WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

CIGS OF 2500-3500 FT EXPECTED TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TOWARD 00Z. CIGS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY AOA
4000 FT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHILE SOMEWHAT UNCONVENTIONAL... WILL ISSUE GALE WARNING ALREADY FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO CAUSE HYDRO ISSUES AND NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY WX ANTICIPATED TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE HYDRO ISSUES SINCE BASIN AVG QPF
AMOUNTS OF ONLY UNDER A HALF OF AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...MEADE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 290730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE HALLOWEEN WHEN A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT
BLASTS SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST OVER 40 MPH
AND OUR FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON MAY BE SEEN. THE COLD AIR
WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE COLD BLAST ON HALLOWEEN DAY IS THE MAIN FOCUS. INTENSE PV
ANOMALY IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE LOWER GRTLKS REGION ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE NOT
GOING WITH A PARTICULARLY STRONG SFC LOW. REGARDLESS... THE WINDS
CRANK UP CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT WITH TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOWER GRTLKS RGN SFC LOW AND THE SFC HIGH OVER
MINNESOTA.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS OVER 40
KTS AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND
FALLING TREE LIMBS ARE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS THE SNOW POTENTIAL ON HALLOWEEN... THE DGZ LOOKS PRETTY
HIGH ABOVE 7K FT. ALSO THE NORTH FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ABRUPT DRYING IN SW MI. HAVE KEPT A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FCST BUT AM LEANING TOWARD MOSTLY
RAIN BASED ON SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 40. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF U.S. 10 WHERE SNOW MAY BE MORE
PERSISTENT AND HAVE A CHANCE OF STICKING TO THE GRASS.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND -3C WILL
LEAD TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. IT
WILL BE BREEZY ALTHOUGH NOT AS BAD AS YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HALLOWEEN STORM MOVES AWAY FROM LOWER MICHIGAN.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWN WIND FROM
THE POINTS ON THE WESTERN CWA...AND A FEW SHSN OVER THE EASTERN CWA
DOWNWIND FROM LAKE HURON. 30KT NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY
BLOW SOME SHSN INLAND. WE INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE NE CWA FOR
THAT POSSIBILITY.

WE/LL SEE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRY WEATHER AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER
MICHIGAN BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY. THE SYSTEM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WON/T BE NEARLY AS DYNAMIC AS THE SYSTEM THIS
FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD SUFFICE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 AFTER WHICH A
WARMING TREND WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHILE SOMEWHAT UNCONVENTIONAL... WILL ISSUE GALE WARNING ALREADY FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

RAINFALL LAST NIGHT WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE HYDRO
ISSUES AND NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY WX ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PCPN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
HYDRO ISSUES SINCE BASIN AVG QPF AMOUNTS OF ONLY UNDER A HALF OF
AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING FRIDAY 8 AM TO SATURDAY 8 AM FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...MEADE











000
FXUS63 KGRR 290538
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
138 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AVERAGING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN FOR HALLOWEEN WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MIDDLE 30S UP NORTH TO LOWER 40S NEAR TO SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 96. THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ARE ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. THE UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL STICK AROUND SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES UNDERGO A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK
GOOD FOR LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. LOOKING UPSTREAM...SHOWERS APPEAR LIGHT
AND ISOLATED ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THESE WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WSW TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. EXTENSIVE LOW
CLOUD COVER OFF TO THE WNW ACROSS WI WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
TONIGHT.

SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW/DEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH H8
TEMPS OF -3 TO -4 C LEADING TO NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.

A FEW SPRINKLES MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DRY WX
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NW AND BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN
WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA TOWARD 12Z
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON HALLOWEEN.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HAZARD WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH...WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT HALLOWEEN DECORATIONS AND TRICK OR
TREATING. WE COULD SEE SNOW MIX IN WITH RAIN ON HALLOWEEN... BUT
THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WOULD BE IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S DURING THE DAYTIME WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
ARE LIMITING FACTORS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
RAIN OR SNOW ASIDE...EXPECT NASTY TRICK OR TREATING CONDITIONS WITH
WIND CHILLS PLUMMETING INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY EVENING.

THERE HAS BEEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
THE HALLOWEEN SYSTEM. A STRONG PV ANOMALY WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGING QUICKLY TAKES HOLD
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR SKIES...BUT STILL QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE 50S EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BRISK WEST WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AND COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE LAKE WATERS WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS
TO CONTINUE TO BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 5 TO 8 FEET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z GLERL WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE FINALLY SUBSIDING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY
EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

RAINFALL LAST NIGHT WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE HYDRO
ISSUES AND NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY WX ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PCPN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
HYDRO ISSUES SINCE BASIN AVG QPF AMOUNTS OF ONLY UNDER A HALF OF
AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 290233
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1033 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AVERAGING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN FOR HALLOWEEN WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MIDDLE 30S UP NORTH TO LOWER 40S NEAR TO SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 96. THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ARE ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. THE UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL STICK AROUND SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES UNDERGO A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK
GOOD FOR LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. LOOKING UPSTREAM...SHOWERS APPEAR LIGHT
AND ISOLATED ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THESE WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WSW TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. EXTENSIVE LOW
CLOUD COVER OFF TO THE WNW ACROSS WI WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
TONIGHT.

SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW/DEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH H8
TEMPS OF -3 TO -4 C LEADING TO NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.

A FEW SPRINKLES MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DRY WX
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NW AND BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN
WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA TOWARD 12Z
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON HALLOWEEN.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HAZARD WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH...WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT HALLOWEEN DECORATIONS AND TRICK OR
TREATING. WE COULD SEE SNOW MIX IN WITH RAIN ON HALLOWEEN... BUT
THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WOULD BE IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S DURING THE DAYTIME WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
ARE LIMITING FACTORS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
RAIN OR SNOW ASIDE...EXPECT NASTY TRICK OR TREATING CONDITIONS WITH
WIND CHILLS PLUMMETING INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY EVENING.

THERE HAS BEEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
THE HALLOWEEN SYSTEM. A STRONG PV ANOMALY WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGING QUICKLY TAKES HOLD
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR SKIES...BUT STILL QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE 50S EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING THEN
SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT. STRATUS DECK WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3000 TO
3500 FEET AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TOPS WILL
BE AROUND 5000 FEET TONIGHT AND AROUND 9000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BRISK WEST WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AND COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE LAKE WATERS WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS
TO CONTINUE TO BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 5 TO 8 FEET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z GLERL WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE FINALLY SUBSIDING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY
EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

RAINFALL LAST NIGHT WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE HYDRO
ISSUES AND NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY WX ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PCPN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
HYDRO ISSUES SINCE BASIN AVG QPF AMOUNTS OF ONLY UNDER A HALF OF
AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 282347
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
747 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AVERAGING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN FOR HALLOWEEN WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MIDDLE 30S UP NORTH TO LOWER 40S NEAR TO SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 96. THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ARE ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. THE UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL STICK AROUND SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES UNDERGO A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WSW TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. EXTENSIVE LOW
CLOUD COVER OFF TO THE WNW ACROSS WI WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
TONIGHT.

SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW/DEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH H8
TEMPS OF -3 TO -4 C LEADING TO NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.

A FEW SPRINKLES MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DRY WX
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NW AND BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN
WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA TOWARD 12Z
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON HALLOWEEN.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HAZARD WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH...WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT HALLOWEEN DECORATIONS AND TRICK OR
TREATING. WE COULD SEE SNOW MIX IN WITH RAIN ON HALLOWEEN... BUT
THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WOULD BE IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S DURING THE DAYTIME WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
ARE LIMITING FACTORS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
RAIN OR SNOW ASIDE...EXPECT NASTY TRICK OR TREATING CONDITIONS WITH
WIND CHILLS PLUMMETING INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY EVENING.

THERE HAS BEEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
THE HALLOWEEN SYSTEM. A STRONG PV ANOMALY WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGING QUICKLY TAKES HOLD
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR SKIES...BUT STILL QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE 50S EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING THEN
SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT. STRATUS DECK WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3000 TO
3500 FEET AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TOPS WILL
BE AROUND 5000 FEET TONIGHT AND AROUND 9000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BRISK WEST WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AND COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE LAKE WATERS WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS
TO CONTINUE TO BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 5 TO 8 FEET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z GLERL WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE FINALLY SUBSIDING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY
EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

RAINFALL LAST NIGHT WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE HYDRO
ISSUES AND NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY WX ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PCPN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
HYDRO ISSUES SINCE BASIN AVG QPF AMOUNTS OF ONLY UNDER A HALF OF
AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 281928
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AVERAGING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN FOR HALLOWEEN WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MIDDLE 30S UP NORTH TO LOWER 40S NEAR TO SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 96. THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ARE ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. THE UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL STICK AROUND SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES UNDERGO A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WSW TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. EXTENSIVE LOW
CLOUD COVER OFF TO THE WNW ACROSS WI WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
TONIGHT.

SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW/DEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH H8
TEMPS OF -3 TO -4 C LEADING TO NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.

A FEW SPRINKLES MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DRY WX
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NW AND BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN
WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA TOWARD 12Z
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON HALLOWEEN.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HAZARD WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH...WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT HALLOWEEN DECORATIONS AND TRICK OR
TREATING. WE COULD SEE SNOW MIX IN WITH RAIN ON HALLOWEEN... BUT
THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WOULD BE IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S DURING THE DAYTIME WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
ARE LIMITING FACTORS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
RAIN OR SNOW ASIDE...EXPECT NASTY TRICK OR TREATING CONDITIONS WITH
WIND CHILLS PLUMMETING INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY EVENING.

THERE HAS BEEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
THE HALLOWEEN SYSTEM. A STRONG PV ANOMALY WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGING QUICKLY TAKES HOLD
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR SKIES...BUT STILL QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE 50S EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT ABOUT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z THIS
EVENING. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000-4000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WE ALREADY SEE CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FT
AGL OVER WI BASED ON SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS. THIS SHOULD
SPREAD EAST OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
AT OR ABOVE 3000 FT AGL WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF DROPPING BELOW FUEL
ALTERNATES OF 2000 FT. HAVE LOWERED WIND SPEEDS AND REMOVED GUSTS
TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BRISK WEST WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AND COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE LAKE WATERS WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS
TO CONTINUE TO BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 5 TO 8 FEET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z GLERL WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE FINALLY SUBSIDING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

RAINFALL LAST NIGHT WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE HYDRO
ISSUES AND NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY WX ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PCPN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGHT TO CAUSE
HYDRO ISSUES SINCE BASIN AVG QFP AMOUNTS OF ONLY UNDER A HALF OF
AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS









000
FXUS63 KGRR 281746
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
146 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND BE FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER WITH HIGHS AROUND 50.

VERY CHILLY AIR WILL ARRIVE ON HALLOWEEN AND WE MAY SEE OUR FIRST
SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ALONG WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS. THE COLD AIR
WILL STICK AROUND ON SATURDAY THEN A MODERATING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR
AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THIS AREA WITH MUCH LOWER
POPS NORTH OF GRR. THE COVERAGE OF TSTMS SHOULD BE QUITE LOW WITH MU
CAPES GENERALLY UNDER 500 J/KG.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRY SLOT THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT
WILL LEAD TO SOME SUNSHINE BUT THE DEEPER MIXING AND COLD ADVECTION
WILL ALSO PROMOTE SOME RATHER GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH. WE HAVE
ACTUALLY SEEN A FEW OCCURRENCES OF STRONGER GUSTS ALREADY EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD AND THE SHOWERS
HELPING TO BRIEFLY MIX THIS DOWN.

LESS WIND ON WEDNESDAY BUT SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 2K AND 5K DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -3C AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE SO A MORE TYPICAL OCTOBER DAY WITH EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 131.

SFC RIDGE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS IS
TYPICAL IN MICHIGAN IN LATE OCTOBER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND
THE STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A
SOLUTION IN WHICH H8 TEMPS FALL TO -8C BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO RELY ON THE TIMING OF TWO SHORT
WAVES PHASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST IS A WAVE THAT MOVES
IN OFF THE PACIFIC ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE SECOND AND STRONGER WAVE MOVES SOUTH
FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND THE TIME THE
FIRST WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI. THE RESULT IS A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW THAT MOVES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SEWD ACROSS
LAKE HURON. STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WITH THE LOW. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WE SHOULD SEE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE MORNING WITH MOSTLY 30S IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT/S GOING TO FEEL REALLY CHILLY TOO WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND. THERE COULD BE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE COAST...BUT NORTH WIND AND SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL PROHIBIT
ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVERHEAD LEADING TO FAIR SKIES FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TEMPS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT ABOUT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000-4000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. WE ALREADY SEE CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FT AGL OVER WI
BASED ON SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS. THIS SHOULD SPREAD EAST
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 3000 FT AGL WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF DROPPING BELOW FUEL
ALTERNATES OF 2000 FT. HAVE LOWERED WIND SPEEDS AND REMOVED GUSTS
TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

STRONG WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WAVES TO 8 FEET WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. A
SIGNIFICANT NORTH FLOW EVENT IS LOOKING LIKELY FOR HALLOWEEN WITH
GALES A GOOD BET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

THE OVERALL TREND THIS WEEKEND HAS BEEN TO GRADUALLY STEP BACK ON
PRECIP TOTALS. IT SEEMS THAT THE CHANCES FOR ANY HIGHER TOTALS
IS LOW AND WOULD BE THE OUTLIER. I SUPPOSE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
WOULD EXCEED HALF AN INCH OR SO IF AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...JUST AS THEY HAD IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY FLOODING ISSUES.
RIVERS ARE ALREADY RUNNING WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS. WITH RECENT
DRY WEATHER ANY INCOMING PRECIP WOULD JUST BE BENEFICIAL AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 281145
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
745 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND BE FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER WITH HIGHS AROUND 50.

VERY CHILLY AIR WILL ARRIVE ON HALLOWEEN AND WE MAY SEE OUR FIRST
SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ALONG WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS. THE COLD AIR
WILL STICK AROUND ON SATURDAY THEN A MODERATING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR
AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THIS AREA WITH MUCH LOWER
POPS NORTH OF GRR. THE COVERAGE OF TSTMS SHOULD BE QUITE LOW WITH MU
CAPES GENERALLY UNDER 500 J/KG.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRY SLOT THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT
WILL LEAD TO SOME SUNSHINE BUT THE DEEPER MIXING AND COLD ADVECTION
WILL ALSO PROMOTE SOME RATHER GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH. WE HAVE
ACTUALLY SEEN A FEW OCCURRENCES OF STRONGER GUSTS ALREADY EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD AND THE SHOWERS
HELPING TO BRIEFLY MIX THIS DOWN.

LESS WIND ON WEDNESDAY BUT SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 2K AND 5K DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -3C AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE SO A MORE TYPICAL OCTOBER DAY WITH EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 131.

SFC RIDGE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS IS
TYPICAL IN MICHIGAN IN LATE OCTOBER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND
THE STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A
SOLUTION IN WHICH H8 TEMPS FALL TO -8C BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO RELY ON THE TIMING OF TWO SHORT
WAVES PHASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST IS A WAVE THAT MOVES
IN OFF THE PACIFIC ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE SECOND AND STRONGER WAVE MOVES SOUTH
FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND THE TIME THE
FIRST WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI. THE RESULT IS A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW THAT MOVES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SEWD ACROSS
LAKE HURON. STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WITH THE LOW. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WE SHOULD SEE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE MORNING WITH MOSTLY 30S IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT/S GOING TO FEEL REALLY CHILLY TOO WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND. THERE COULD BE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE COAST...BUT NORTH WIND AND SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL PROHIBIT
ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVERHEAD LEADING TO FAIR SKIES FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TEMPS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS THE
SFC COLD FRONT PRESSES EAST THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY TSTMS/CBS IN THE TAFS BUT A STORM
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THROUGH 15Z MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF GRR.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH FROPA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
THIS MORNING BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z AND 18Z. HOWEVER SFC WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME AND GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 30-35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AFTER 18Z. THE WINDS SHOULD
RELAX AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

STRONG WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WAVES TO 8 FEET WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. A
SIGNIFICANT NORTH FLOW EVENT IS LOOKING LIKELY FOR HALLOWEEN WITH
GALES A GOOD BET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

THE OVERALL TREND THIS WEEKEND HAS BEEN TO GRADUALLY STEP BACK ON
PRECIP TOTALS. IT SEEMS THAT THE CHANCES FOR ANY HIGHER TOTALS
IS LOW AND WOULD BE THE OUTLIER. I SUPPOSE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
WOULD EXCEED HALF AN INCH OR SO IF AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...JUST AS THEY HAD IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY FLOODING ISSUES.
RIVERS ARE ALREADY RUNNING WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS. WITH RECENT
DRY WEATHER ANY INCOMING PRECIP WOULD JUST BE BENEFICIAL AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE








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