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000
FXUS63 KGRR 231850
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS WITH LOCALIZED FOG TO THE AREA. A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. A LOT OF SUNNY
AND WARM DAYS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOMEWHAT COOL NIGHTS WITH SOME VERY
LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING HOLDING TIGHT OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC AND HOLDING UP THE PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRY TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA BY THU...
HOWEVER IT WILL GET STOPPED IN ITS TRACKS BY THE BOTTLENECK BEING
CREATED BY THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. AS IT HOLDS UP...THE STRONG UPPER LOW
COMING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MID-WEEK WILL ONLY REINFORCE THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA AND HELP THE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE. WE WILL
SEE DRY AIR HOLD IN OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP OUR CHCS OF RAIN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM NEAR ZERO.

PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK MAINLY DUE TO THE NEARLY
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS COMBINING WITH THE WARM GROUND
AND INLAND BODIES OF WATER. THIS IS VERY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY NOTICEABLE IMPACTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...GIVEN
THE WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.  A LOW THAT FORMS OVER THE GULF OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY TRACK IN OUR DIRECTION NEXT WEEK.  THE HIGH
RES EURO HAS IT IN OUR REGION BY MID WEEK...WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT
TRACK IT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.  THE HIGH RES EURO IS TRENDING
FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM.  IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND THE EURO ENDS
UP BEING CORRECT...TUESDAY WOULD END UP BEING A WET DAY.  FOR
NOW...I WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS GOING FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FORECASTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION IS SHOWN BEHIND THE
FRONT.  WE WILL LIKELY WARM UP FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS
GULF MOISTURE STARTS STREAMING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT.
AS OF NOW...THE IMPACTS TO THE TAFS SITES LOOKS LIMITED. WE WILL
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS POTENTIAL RISK LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  I DID MAINTAIN THE MVFR FOG FOR KJXN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

NO MARINE ISSUES EXPECTED THE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL SEE WINDS REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS ARE RUNNING AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE...AND WILL ONLY DROP THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ






000
FXUS63 KGRR 231850
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS WITH LOCALIZED FOG TO THE AREA. A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. A LOT OF SUNNY
AND WARM DAYS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOMEWHAT COOL NIGHTS WITH SOME VERY
LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING HOLDING TIGHT OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC AND HOLDING UP THE PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRY TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA BY THU...
HOWEVER IT WILL GET STOPPED IN ITS TRACKS BY THE BOTTLENECK BEING
CREATED BY THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. AS IT HOLDS UP...THE STRONG UPPER LOW
COMING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MID-WEEK WILL ONLY REINFORCE THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA AND HELP THE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE. WE WILL
SEE DRY AIR HOLD IN OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP OUR CHCS OF RAIN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM NEAR ZERO.

PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK MAINLY DUE TO THE NEARLY
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS COMBINING WITH THE WARM GROUND
AND INLAND BODIES OF WATER. THIS IS VERY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY NOTICEABLE IMPACTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...GIVEN
THE WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.  A LOW THAT FORMS OVER THE GULF OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY TRACK IN OUR DIRECTION NEXT WEEK.  THE HIGH
RES EURO HAS IT IN OUR REGION BY MID WEEK...WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT
TRACK IT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.  THE HIGH RES EURO IS TRENDING
FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM.  IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND THE EURO ENDS
UP BEING CORRECT...TUESDAY WOULD END UP BEING A WET DAY.  FOR
NOW...I WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS GOING FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FORECASTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION IS SHOWN BEHIND THE
FRONT.  WE WILL LIKELY WARM UP FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS
GULF MOISTURE STARTS STREAMING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT.
AS OF NOW...THE IMPACTS TO THE TAFS SITES LOOKS LIMITED. WE WILL
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS POTENTIAL RISK LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  I DID MAINTAIN THE MVFR FOG FOR KJXN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

NO MARINE ISSUES EXPECTED THE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL SEE WINDS REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS ARE RUNNING AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE...AND WILL ONLY DROP THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 231701
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
101 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

A SLOW MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE ONLY ISSUE OF CONCERN IS WILL THERE BE PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT? OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

I PUT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY SINCE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT..SKIES CLEAR AND WITH THE
LONGER HOURS OF DARKNESS THERE IS MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP. DEW POINTS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S... SO IT WILL BE
EASY TO COOL TO THE DEW POINT GIVEN THAT.

ALSO GIVEN THE SUNNY...DRY WEATHER I INCREASED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1 TO 2 DEGREES FOR BOTH TODAY...WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTROLS THE WEATHER TODAY BUT THEN A WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SINCE THROUGH 700 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL... THERE IS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER TROUGH TO WORK WITH SO
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EVEN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A SURFACE
AND UPPER HIGH WILL REST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...WHILE AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD ACROSS MO
AND INTO KS.  THIS LOW OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION ONLY HELPS TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE
RIDGE DOES SHOW SOME WEAKENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE COMES INTO IT.  HOWEVER IT APPEARS DOUBTFUL THAT THIS WAVE WILL
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS STOUT.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE WARMEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD
COINCIDE WITH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 BEING COMMONPLACE.
MONDAY SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT.
AS OF NOW...THE IMPACTS TO THE TAFS SITES LOOKS LIMITED. WE WILL
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS POTENTIAL RISK LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  I DID MAINTAIN THE MVFR FOG FOR KJXN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

NO ISSUES WORTHY OF NOTE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW
FALL ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 231701
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
101 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

A SLOW MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE ONLY ISSUE OF CONCERN IS WILL THERE BE PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT? OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

I PUT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY SINCE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT..SKIES CLEAR AND WITH THE
LONGER HOURS OF DARKNESS THERE IS MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP. DEW POINTS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S... SO IT WILL BE
EASY TO COOL TO THE DEW POINT GIVEN THAT.

ALSO GIVEN THE SUNNY...DRY WEATHER I INCREASED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1 TO 2 DEGREES FOR BOTH TODAY...WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTROLS THE WEATHER TODAY BUT THEN A WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SINCE THROUGH 700 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL... THERE IS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER TROUGH TO WORK WITH SO
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EVEN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A SURFACE
AND UPPER HIGH WILL REST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...WHILE AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD ACROSS MO
AND INTO KS.  THIS LOW OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION ONLY HELPS TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE
RIDGE DOES SHOW SOME WEAKENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE COMES INTO IT.  HOWEVER IT APPEARS DOUBTFUL THAT THIS WAVE WILL
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS STOUT.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE WARMEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD
COINCIDE WITH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 BEING COMMONPLACE.
MONDAY SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT.
AS OF NOW...THE IMPACTS TO THE TAFS SITES LOOKS LIMITED. WE WILL
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS POTENTIAL RISK LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  I DID MAINTAIN THE MVFR FOG FOR KJXN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

NO ISSUES WORTHY OF NOTE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW
FALL ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 231143
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
743 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

A SLOW MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE ONLY ISSUE OF CONCERN IS WILL THERE BE PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT? OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

I PUT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY SINCE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT..SKIES CLEAR AND WITH THE
LONGER HOURS OF DARKNESS THERE IS MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP. DEW POINTS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S... SO IT WILL BE
EASY TO COOL TO THE DEW POINT GIVEN THAT.

ALSO GIVEN THE SUNNY...DRY WEATHER I INCREASED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1 TO 2 DEGREES FOR BOTH TODAY...WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTROLS THE WEATHER TODAY BUT THEN A WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SINCE THROUGH 700 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL... THERE IS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER TROUGH TO WORK WITH SO
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EVEN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A SURFACE
AND UPPER HIGH WILL REST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...WHILE AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD ACROSS MO
AND INTO KS.  THIS LOW OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION ONLY HELPS TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE
RIDGE DOES SHOW SOME WEAKENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE COMES INTO IT.  HOWEVER IT APPEARS DOUBTFUL THAT THIS WAVE WILL
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS STOUT.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE WARMEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD
COINCIDE WITH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 BEING COMMONPLACE.
MONDAY SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DURING
THE NIGHT TIME HOURS BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON (AS SEEN ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP AND NAM).

SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING (SHOWN BY CROSSING
OF TEMP AND DEW POINT NEAR THE GROUND ON THOSE SAME MODELS
SOUNDINGS). I PUT THE FOG ONLY AT THE SITES THAT GET THE MOST
FREQUENTLY REPORT FOG BUT IT MAY IMPACT NEARLY ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. LATE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT THAT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

NO ISSUES WORTHY OF NOTE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW
FALL ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 231143
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
743 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

A SLOW MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE ONLY ISSUE OF CONCERN IS WILL THERE BE PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT? OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

I PUT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY SINCE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT..SKIES CLEAR AND WITH THE
LONGER HOURS OF DARKNESS THERE IS MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP. DEW POINTS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S... SO IT WILL BE
EASY TO COOL TO THE DEW POINT GIVEN THAT.

ALSO GIVEN THE SUNNY...DRY WEATHER I INCREASED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1 TO 2 DEGREES FOR BOTH TODAY...WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTROLS THE WEATHER TODAY BUT THEN A WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SINCE THROUGH 700 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL... THERE IS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER TROUGH TO WORK WITH SO
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EVEN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A SURFACE
AND UPPER HIGH WILL REST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...WHILE AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD ACROSS MO
AND INTO KS.  THIS LOW OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION ONLY HELPS TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE
RIDGE DOES SHOW SOME WEAKENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE COMES INTO IT.  HOWEVER IT APPEARS DOUBTFUL THAT THIS WAVE WILL
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS STOUT.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE WARMEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD
COINCIDE WITH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 BEING COMMONPLACE.
MONDAY SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DURING
THE NIGHT TIME HOURS BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON (AS SEEN ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP AND NAM).

SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING (SHOWN BY CROSSING
OF TEMP AND DEW POINT NEAR THE GROUND ON THOSE SAME MODELS
SOUNDINGS). I PUT THE FOG ONLY AT THE SITES THAT GET THE MOST
FREQUENTLY REPORT FOG BUT IT MAY IMPACT NEARLY ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. LATE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT THAT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

NO ISSUES WORTHY OF NOTE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW
FALL ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 230712
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
312 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

A SLOW MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE ONLY ISSUE OF CONCERN IS WILL THERE BE PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT? OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

I PUT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY SINCE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT..SKIES CLEAR AND WITH THE
LONGER HOURS OF DARKNESS THERE IS MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP. DEW POINTS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S... SO IT WILL BE
EASY TO COOL TO THE DEW POINT GIVEN THAT.

ALSO GIVEN THE SUNNY...DRY WEATHER I INCREASED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1 TO 2 DEGREES FOR BOTH TODAY...WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTROLS THE WEATHER TODAY BUT THEN A WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SINCE THROUGH 700 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL... THERE IS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER TROUGH TO WORK WITH SO
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EVEN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A SURFACE
AND UPPER HIGH WILL REST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...WHILE AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD ACROSS MO
AND INTO KS.  THIS LOW OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION ONLY HELPS TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE
RIDGE DOES SHOW SOME WEAKENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE COMES INTO IT.  HOWEVER IT APPEARS DOUBTFUL THAT THIS WAVE WILL
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS STOUT.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE WARMEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD
COINCIDE WITH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 BEING COMMONPLACE.
MONDAY SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING IN.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS WILL NOT
BECOME MUCH OF AN IMPACT AND WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN 7 KNOTS
OR LESS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

NO ISSUES WORTHY OF NOTE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW
FALL ON AREA RIVERS.


&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 230712
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
312 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

A SLOW MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE ONLY ISSUE OF CONCERN IS WILL THERE BE PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT? OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

I PUT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY SINCE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT..SKIES CLEAR AND WITH THE
LONGER HOURS OF DARKNESS THERE IS MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP. DEW POINTS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S... SO IT WILL BE
EASY TO COOL TO THE DEW POINT GIVEN THAT.

ALSO GIVEN THE SUNNY...DRY WEATHER I INCREASED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1 TO 2 DEGREES FOR BOTH TODAY...WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTROLS THE WEATHER TODAY BUT THEN A WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SINCE THROUGH 700 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL... THERE IS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER TROUGH TO WORK WITH SO
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EVEN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A SURFACE
AND UPPER HIGH WILL REST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...WHILE AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD ACROSS MO
AND INTO KS.  THIS LOW OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION ONLY HELPS TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE
RIDGE DOES SHOW SOME WEAKENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE COMES INTO IT.  HOWEVER IT APPEARS DOUBTFUL THAT THIS WAVE WILL
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS STOUT.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE WARMEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD
COINCIDE WITH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 BEING COMMONPLACE.
MONDAY SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING IN.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS WILL NOT
BECOME MUCH OF AN IMPACT AND WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN 7 KNOTS
OR LESS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

NO ISSUES WORTHY OF NOTE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW
FALL ON AREA RIVERS.


&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 230516
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
116 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
LIKELY RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A TROUGH TRIES TO APPROACH THE AREA
ON WED...HOWEVER IT GETS STOPPED AS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN SLOWS UP
WITH A STRONG RIDGE EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. AN
EXTENSION OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER OUR AREA
IN BETWEEN TROUGHS OVER BOTH THE SE CONUS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WE WILL SEE MAX TEMPS WARM INTO THE 70S ON TUE AND HOLD THROUGH WED.
THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AFTER TODAY AND WE SEE MILDER TEMPS
ALOFT MOVE IN. WE HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
LIKELY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE NIGHT TIME. SOME
ISOLATED FOG IS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT NEAR LOW SPOTS AND INLAND BODIES
OF WATER AS IS TYPICAL AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER IT WOULD BE
SO LOCALIZED THAT IT WILL NOT REQUIRE A MENTION IN THE FCST AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HEIGHT FALLS BEGINNING BY
SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND PLAINS UPPER LOW OPENS UP
PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS LEAVE
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD SO WE WILL
LEAVE OUT PRECIP FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS WILL NOT
BECOME MUCH OF AN IMPACT AND WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN 7 KNOTS
OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

NO MARINE CONCERNS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT WEEK. WAVES CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MOST RECENT WIND EVENT FROM
YESTERDAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING
THE WEATHER.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

SLIGHT RISES ARE STILL OCCURRING AT SOME RIVER GAGES...BUT ALL ARE
WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY THAT WAY. DRY
WEATHER WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND NO HYDRO
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 230516
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
116 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
LIKELY RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A TROUGH TRIES TO APPROACH THE AREA
ON WED...HOWEVER IT GETS STOPPED AS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN SLOWS UP
WITH A STRONG RIDGE EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. AN
EXTENSION OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER OUR AREA
IN BETWEEN TROUGHS OVER BOTH THE SE CONUS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WE WILL SEE MAX TEMPS WARM INTO THE 70S ON TUE AND HOLD THROUGH WED.
THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AFTER TODAY AND WE SEE MILDER TEMPS
ALOFT MOVE IN. WE HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
LIKELY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE NIGHT TIME. SOME
ISOLATED FOG IS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT NEAR LOW SPOTS AND INLAND BODIES
OF WATER AS IS TYPICAL AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER IT WOULD BE
SO LOCALIZED THAT IT WILL NOT REQUIRE A MENTION IN THE FCST AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HEIGHT FALLS BEGINNING BY
SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND PLAINS UPPER LOW OPENS UP
PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS LEAVE
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD SO WE WILL
LEAVE OUT PRECIP FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS WILL NOT
BECOME MUCH OF AN IMPACT AND WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN 7 KNOTS
OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

NO MARINE CONCERNS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT WEEK. WAVES CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MOST RECENT WIND EVENT FROM
YESTERDAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING
THE WEATHER.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

SLIGHT RISES ARE STILL OCCURRING AT SOME RIVER GAGES...BUT ALL ARE
WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY THAT WAY. DRY
WEATHER WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND NO HYDRO
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ








000
FXUS63 KGRR 230001
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
801 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
LIKELY RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A TROUGH TRIES TO APPROACH THE AREA
ON WED...HOWEVER IT GETS STOPPED AS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN SLOWS UP
WITH A STRONG RIDGE EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. AN
EXTENSION OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER OUR AREA
IN BETWEEN TROUGHS OVER BOTH THE SE CONUS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WE WILL SEE MAX TEMPS WARM INTO THE 70S ON TUE AND HOLD THROUGH WED.
THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AFTER TODAY AND WE SEE MILDER TEMPS
ALOFT MOVE IN. WE HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
LIKELY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE NIGHT TIME. SOME
ISOLATED FOG IS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT NEAR LOW SPOTS AND INLAND BODIES
OF WATER AS IS TYPICAL AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER IT WOULD BE
SO LOCALIZED THAT IT WILL NOT REQUIRE A MENTION IN THE FCST AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HEIGHT FALLS BEGINNING BY
SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND PLAINS UPPER LOW OPENS UP
PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS LEAVE
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD SO WE WILL
LEAVE OUT PRECIP FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 801 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. THE ONLY ISSUE MAY BE SOME LIGHT...PATCHY FOG
TOWARDS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. DID NOT FEEL THE THREAT WAS
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THESE TAFS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
LITTLE MVFR FOG TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE FAIR WEATHER. IT WILL BE SITUATED
ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

NO MARINE CONCERNS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT WEEK. WAVES CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MOST RECENT WIND EVENT FROM
YESTERDAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING
THE WEATHER.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

SLIGHT RISES ARE STILL OCCURRING AT SOME RIVER GAGES...BUT ALL ARE
WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY THAT WAY. DRY
WEATHER WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND NO HYDRO
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 221855
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
LIKELY RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A TROUGH TRIES TO APPROACH THE AREA
ON WED...HOWEVER IT GETS STOPPED AS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN SLOWS UP
WITH A STRONG RIDGE EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. AN
EXTENSION OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER OUR AREA
INBETWEEN TROUGHS OVER BOTH THE SE CONUS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WE WILL SEE MAX TEMPS WARM INTO THE 70S ON TUE AND HOLD THROUGH WED.
THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AFTER TODAY AND WE SEE MILDER TEMPS
ALOFT MOVE IN. WE HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
LIKELY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE NIGHT TIME. SOME
ISOLATED FOG IS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT NEAR LOW SPOTS AND INLAND BODIES
OF WATER AS IS TYPICAL AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER IT WOULD BE
SO LOCALIZED THAT IT WILL NOT REQUIRE A MENTION IN THE FCST AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HEIGHT FALLS BEGINNING BY
SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND PLAINS UPPER LOW OPENS UP
PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS LEAVE
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD SO WE WILL
LEAVE OUT PRECIP FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

WE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SHALLOW FOG WILL FORM BY
DAYBREAK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS...MOST LIKELY AT JXN AND AZO AND ANY PLACE NEAR RIVER
VALLEYS OR INLAND LAKES. VFR IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH WEST
WINDS BLO 10 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

NO MARINE CONCERNS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT WEEK. WAVES CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MOST RECENT WIND EVENT FROM
YESTERDAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING
THE WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

SLIGHT RISES ARE STILL OCCURRING AT SOME RIVER GAGES...BUT ALL ARE
WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY THAT WAY. DRY
WEATHER WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND NO HYDRO
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 221855
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
LIKELY RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A TROUGH TRIES TO APPROACH THE AREA
ON WED...HOWEVER IT GETS STOPPED AS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN SLOWS UP
WITH A STRONG RIDGE EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. AN
EXTENSION OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER OUR AREA
INBETWEEN TROUGHS OVER BOTH THE SE CONUS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WE WILL SEE MAX TEMPS WARM INTO THE 70S ON TUE AND HOLD THROUGH WED.
THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AFTER TODAY AND WE SEE MILDER TEMPS
ALOFT MOVE IN. WE HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
LIKELY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE NIGHT TIME. SOME
ISOLATED FOG IS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT NEAR LOW SPOTS AND INLAND BODIES
OF WATER AS IS TYPICAL AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER IT WOULD BE
SO LOCALIZED THAT IT WILL NOT REQUIRE A MENTION IN THE FCST AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HEIGHT FALLS BEGINNING BY
SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND PLAINS UPPER LOW OPENS UP
PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS LEAVE
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD SO WE WILL
LEAVE OUT PRECIP FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

WE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SHALLOW FOG WILL FORM BY
DAYBREAK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS...MOST LIKELY AT JXN AND AZO AND ANY PLACE NEAR RIVER
VALLEYS OR INLAND LAKES. VFR IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH WEST
WINDS BLO 10 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

NO MARINE CONCERNS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT WEEK. WAVES CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MOST RECENT WIND EVENT FROM
YESTERDAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING
THE WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

SLIGHT RISES ARE STILL OCCURRING AT SOME RIVER GAGES...BUT ALL ARE
WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY THAT WAY. DRY
WEATHER WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND NO HYDRO
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ






000
FXUS63 KGRR 221734
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
134 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. AFTER THAT
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL TODAY BUT WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID
WEEK AND CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

ONCE THE POLAR JET CORE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND REMAIN SO FOR SOME TIME TO COME.

WE START OUT WITH AN EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET AROUND 45 N THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR JAPAN TO ALMOST THE WEST COST OF THE UNITED
STATES (00Z MONDAY). OVER TIME THIS BREAKS DOWN INTO THREE
SEPARATE UPPER WAVES... ALL OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THAT RESULTS
IN SPLIT FLOW AND RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN
WILL BE VERY SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE STRETCH OF DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY MID WEEK...BUT THEN IT RETROGRADES AND BUILDS BACK OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING ALSO
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.  THEN BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AGAIN.  THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER
SOUTHERN FLOW AND TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE CORE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER US ON SATURDAY WHEN A FEW AREAS MAY SEE
HIGHS AROUND 80...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

WE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SHALLOW FOG WILL FORM BY
DAYBREAK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS...MOST LIKELY AT JXN AND AZO AND ANY PLACE NEAR RIVER
VALLEYS OR INLAND LAKES. VFR IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH WEST
WINDS BLO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

I CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TILL NOON TO ALLOW THE WAVE
HEIGHTS TO COME DOWN BELOW 4 FEET. THE SOUTH THIRD OF OUR NEAR
SHORE WILL BE LAST PLACE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

WITH NO RAIN FORECAST AND RIVERS WELL WITHING THEIR BANKS...
LITTLE TO WORRY ABOUT HERE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 221734
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
134 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. AFTER THAT
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL TODAY BUT WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID
WEEK AND CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

ONCE THE POLAR JET CORE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND REMAIN SO FOR SOME TIME TO COME.

WE START OUT WITH AN EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET AROUND 45 N THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR JAPAN TO ALMOST THE WEST COST OF THE UNITED
STATES (00Z MONDAY). OVER TIME THIS BREAKS DOWN INTO THREE
SEPARATE UPPER WAVES... ALL OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THAT RESULTS
IN SPLIT FLOW AND RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN
WILL BE VERY SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE STRETCH OF DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY MID WEEK...BUT THEN IT RETROGRADES AND BUILDS BACK OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING ALSO
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.  THEN BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AGAIN.  THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER
SOUTHERN FLOW AND TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE CORE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER US ON SATURDAY WHEN A FEW AREAS MAY SEE
HIGHS AROUND 80...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

WE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SHALLOW FOG WILL FORM BY
DAYBREAK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS...MOST LIKELY AT JXN AND AZO AND ANY PLACE NEAR RIVER
VALLEYS OR INLAND LAKES. VFR IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH WEST
WINDS BLO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

I CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TILL NOON TO ALLOW THE WAVE
HEIGHTS TO COME DOWN BELOW 4 FEET. THE SOUTH THIRD OF OUR NEAR
SHORE WILL BE LAST PLACE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

WITH NO RAIN FORECAST AND RIVERS WELL WITHING THEIR BANKS...
LITTLE TO WORRY ABOUT HERE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 221119
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
719 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. AFTER THAT
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL TODAY BUT WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID
WEEK AND CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

ONCE THE POLAR JET CORE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND REMAIN SO FOR SOME TIME TO COME.

WE START OUT WITH AN EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET AROUND 45 N THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR JAPAN TO ALMOST THE WEST COST OF THE UNITED
STATES (00Z MONDAY). OVER TIME THIS BREAKS DOWN INTO THREE
SEPARATE UPPER WAVES... ALL OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THAT RESULTS
IN SPLIT FLOW AND RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN
WILL BE VERY SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE STRETCH OF DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY MID WEEK...BUT THEN IT RETROGRADES AND BUILDS BACK OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING ALSO
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.  THEN BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AGAIN.  THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER
SOUTHERN FLOW AND TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE CORE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER US ON SATURDAY WHEN A FEW AREAS MAY SEE
HIGHS AROUND 80...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
LEAVING ONLY JXN AND LAN WITH AN OVERCAST. JXN WAS STILL MVFR
WHILE LAN WAS VFR AS OF 11Z. ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE CLEAR TO SCT
BY 15Z. MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST A CUMULUS CLOUD DECK NEAR 4000 FT
TODAY SO I PUT THAT IN THE TAF FORECASTS. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING.
LATER FORECAST WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS THAT ISSUE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

I CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TILL NOON TO ALLOW THE WAVE
HEIGHTS TO COME DOWN BELOW 4 FEET. THE SOUTH THIRD OF OUR NEAR
SHORE WILL BE LAST PLACE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

WITH NO RAIN FORECAST AND RIVERS WELL WITHING THEIR BANKS...
LITTLE TO WORRY ABOUT HERE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 221119
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
719 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. AFTER THAT
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL TODAY BUT WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID
WEEK AND CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

ONCE THE POLAR JET CORE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND REMAIN SO FOR SOME TIME TO COME.

WE START OUT WITH AN EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET AROUND 45 N THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR JAPAN TO ALMOST THE WEST COST OF THE UNITED
STATES (00Z MONDAY). OVER TIME THIS BREAKS DOWN INTO THREE
SEPARATE UPPER WAVES... ALL OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THAT RESULTS
IN SPLIT FLOW AND RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN
WILL BE VERY SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE STRETCH OF DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY MID WEEK...BUT THEN IT RETROGRADES AND BUILDS BACK OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING ALSO
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.  THEN BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AGAIN.  THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER
SOUTHERN FLOW AND TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE CORE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER US ON SATURDAY WHEN A FEW AREAS MAY SEE
HIGHS AROUND 80...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
LEAVING ONLY JXN AND LAN WITH AN OVERCAST. JXN WAS STILL MVFR
WHILE LAN WAS VFR AS OF 11Z. ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE CLEAR TO SCT
BY 15Z. MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST A CUMULUS CLOUD DECK NEAR 4000 FT
TODAY SO I PUT THAT IN THE TAF FORECASTS. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING.
LATER FORECAST WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS THAT ISSUE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

I CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TILL NOON TO ALLOW THE WAVE
HEIGHTS TO COME DOWN BELOW 4 FEET. THE SOUTH THIRD OF OUR NEAR
SHORE WILL BE LAST PLACE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

WITH NO RAIN FORECAST AND RIVERS WELL WITHING THEIR BANKS...
LITTLE TO WORRY ABOUT HERE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 220703
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
303 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. AFTER THAT
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL TODAY BUT WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID
WEEK AND CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

ONCE THE POLAR JET CORE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND REMAIN SO FOR SOME TIME TO COME.

WE START OUT WITH AN EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET AROUND 45 N THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR JAPAN TO ALMOST THE WEST COST OF THE UNITED
STATES (00Z MONDAY). OVER TIME THIS BREAKS DOWN INTO THREE
SEPARATE UPPER WAVES... ALL OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THAT RESULTS
IN SPLIT FLOW AND RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN
WILL BE VERY SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE STRETCH OF DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY MID WEEK...BUT THEN IT RETROGRADES AND BUILDS BACK OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING ALSO
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.  THEN BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AGAIN.  THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER
SOUTHERN FLOW AND TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE CORE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER US ON SATURDAY WHEN A FEW AREAS MAY SEE
HIGHS AROUND 80...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CEILINGS ARE MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT 00Z...BUT THERE ARE
SOME VFR SPOTS SHOWING UP. CLEARING IS EVEN MOVING INTO THE
LAKESHORE. WENT PESSIMISTIC THOUGH IN THE 00Z TAFS AS MODELS SHOW
MOISTURE ROTATING BACK IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT. THE WESTERN TAF SITES MAY BE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE THOUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH OVERALL IN HOW CLOUDS
EVOLVE. THE BOTTOM LINE THOUGH...WE ARE IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND DELTA
T/S OFF THE LAKE EVEN SUPPORT STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. ALL OF
THIS POINTS TOWARDS CLOUDS TRYING TO HANG IN. HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE THEN GOING VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH MUCH OF THE
GUSTINESS GONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 6-11 KNOTS
WILL TREND WESTERLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

I CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TILL NOON TO ALLOW THE WAVE
HEIGHTS TO COME DOWN BELOW 4 FEET. THE SOUTH THIRD OF OUR NEAR
SHORE WILL BE LAST PLACE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

WITH NO RAIN FORECAST AND RIVERS WELL WITHING THEIR BANKS...
LITTLE TO WORRY ABOUT HERE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 220703
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
303 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. AFTER THAT
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL TODAY BUT WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID
WEEK AND CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

ONCE THE POLAR JET CORE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND REMAIN SO FOR SOME TIME TO COME.

WE START OUT WITH AN EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET AROUND 45 N THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR JAPAN TO ALMOST THE WEST COST OF THE UNITED
STATES (00Z MONDAY). OVER TIME THIS BREAKS DOWN INTO THREE
SEPARATE UPPER WAVES... ALL OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THAT RESULTS
IN SPLIT FLOW AND RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN
WILL BE VERY SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE STRETCH OF DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY MID WEEK...BUT THEN IT RETROGRADES AND BUILDS BACK OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING ALSO
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.  THEN BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AGAIN.  THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER
SOUTHERN FLOW AND TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE CORE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER US ON SATURDAY WHEN A FEW AREAS MAY SEE
HIGHS AROUND 80...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CEILINGS ARE MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT 00Z...BUT THERE ARE
SOME VFR SPOTS SHOWING UP. CLEARING IS EVEN MOVING INTO THE
LAKESHORE. WENT PESSIMISTIC THOUGH IN THE 00Z TAFS AS MODELS SHOW
MOISTURE ROTATING BACK IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT. THE WESTERN TAF SITES MAY BE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE THOUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH OVERALL IN HOW CLOUDS
EVOLVE. THE BOTTOM LINE THOUGH...WE ARE IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND DELTA
T/S OFF THE LAKE EVEN SUPPORT STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. ALL OF
THIS POINTS TOWARDS CLOUDS TRYING TO HANG IN. HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE THEN GOING VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH MUCH OF THE
GUSTINESS GONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 6-11 KNOTS
WILL TREND WESTERLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

I CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TILL NOON TO ALLOW THE WAVE
HEIGHTS TO COME DOWN BELOW 4 FEET. THE SOUTH THIRD OF OUR NEAR
SHORE WILL BE LAST PLACE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

WITH NO RAIN FORECAST AND RIVERS WELL WITHING THEIR BANKS...
LITTLE TO WORRY ABOUT HERE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 220223
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1023 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE AREA TO
THE EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR A BIT
INLAND WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE UP NORTH. SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD ON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE TONIGHT. ANY
CLOUDS LEFT OVER ON MONDAY MORNING WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA THEN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

PLENTY OF STRATOCUMULUS REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 02Z.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE REMAINING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DELTA T/S OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN ARE ON THE ORDER OF +10C THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO
STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OFF THE LAKE IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. BOTTOM
LINE...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOLES IN THE OVERCAST MAY BECOME MORE COMMONPLACE LATE. THE BREAKS
THAT DEVELOP AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH LOW TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND AROUND 40
ELSEWHERE. LEFT IN SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
CWA...BUT NOT THINKING THIS WILL BE TOO BIG OF AN ISSUE GIVEN THE
CLOUDS AND WINDS THAT WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE ONLY REAL ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLOUD COVER TRENDS FOR
TONIGHT AND FROST POTENTIAL UP NORTH FOR TONIGHT.

THE RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THIS EVENING FROM NW TO SE. UPPER
LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
SE HALF OF THE CWFA AS OF 1830Z THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS STEADILY
ROTATING TO THE E/SE AND WILL MOVE OUT EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND WILL ROTATE
OUT.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME CLOUDS HOLDING ON ALONG THE LAKESHORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING...MORE CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE INLAND. H850 TEMPS OF AROUND 3-6C TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR ENOUGH OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS TO
REMAIN RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH A NNW FLOW EXPECTED. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING IN
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH AND KEEP THE
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE FCST.

THE INLAND CLEARING AND WINDS DIMINISHING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT. TEMPS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR
A CHANCE OF FROST UP NORTH. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH FROST TONIGHT LIES
IN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF WIND THAT REMAINS UP. IT
SEEMS THAT A WIDESPREAD FROST IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT WITH A FAIRLY
MOIST AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE AND SOME CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE FROM
LAKE EFFECT OVER NRN LOWER. WE CONTINUED THE PATCHY FROST WORDING
FOR NOW...AND WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FROST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FROM MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT LOOKS
VERY QUIET AND INCREASINGLY MILD. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WE WILL SEE THE EFFECTS FROM THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LOW
SLOWLY BUILD IN OVER THE AREA. WE WILL SEE TEMPS ALOFT RECOVER VERY
NICELY WHICH WILL HELP THE SFC TEMPS FOR THE AREA REBOUND INTO THE
70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. WITH DRY
SOUNDINGS AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURE RANGES
GREATER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH MAXES A BIT WARMER AND MINS A BIT
COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CEILINGS ARE MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT 00Z...BUT THERE ARE
SOME VFR SPOTS SHOWING UP. CLEARING IS EVEN MOVING INTO THE
LAKESHORE. WENT PESSIMISTIC THOUGH IN THE 00Z TAFS AS MODELS SHOW
MOISTURE ROTATING BACK IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT. THE WESTERN TAF SITES MAY BE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE THOUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH OVERALL IN HOW CLOUDS
EVOLVE. THE BOTTOM LINE THOUGH...WE ARE IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND DELTA
T/S OFF THE LAKE EVEN SUPPORT STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. ALL OF
THIS POINTS TOWARDS CLOUDS TRYING TO HANG IN. HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE THEN GOING VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH MUCH OF THE
GUSTINESS GONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 6-11 KNOTS
WILL TREND WESTERLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

ALLOWED THE GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE AND REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAIL OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. WAVES
WILL TAKE UNTIL MORNING TO SUBSIDE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

OBSERVED RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING HAS RANGED
FROM A QUARTER INCH TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST RISES
ARE ONGOING ON SOME RIVERS BUT ALL ARE STILL WELL BELOW BANKFULL.
SEVERAL GAGES HAVE REPORTED CRESTS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. ONLY
CONCERN ARE SOME OF THE CREEKS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MI...WHERE GENERALLY
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND WHERE LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. BEYOND TODAY...THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NO
HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JK








000
FXUS63 KGRR 220223
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1023 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE AREA TO
THE EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR A BIT
INLAND WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE UP NORTH. SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD ON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE TONIGHT. ANY
CLOUDS LEFT OVER ON MONDAY MORNING WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA THEN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

PLENTY OF STRATOCUMULUS REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 02Z.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE REMAINING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DELTA T/S OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN ARE ON THE ORDER OF +10C THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO
STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OFF THE LAKE IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. BOTTOM
LINE...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOLES IN THE OVERCAST MAY BECOME MORE COMMONPLACE LATE. THE BREAKS
THAT DEVELOP AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH LOW TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND AROUND 40
ELSEWHERE. LEFT IN SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
CWA...BUT NOT THINKING THIS WILL BE TOO BIG OF AN ISSUE GIVEN THE
CLOUDS AND WINDS THAT WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE ONLY REAL ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLOUD COVER TRENDS FOR
TONIGHT AND FROST POTENTIAL UP NORTH FOR TONIGHT.

THE RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THIS EVENING FROM NW TO SE. UPPER
LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
SE HALF OF THE CWFA AS OF 1830Z THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS STEADILY
ROTATING TO THE E/SE AND WILL MOVE OUT EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND WILL ROTATE
OUT.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME CLOUDS HOLDING ON ALONG THE LAKESHORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING...MORE CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE INLAND. H850 TEMPS OF AROUND 3-6C TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR ENOUGH OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS TO
REMAIN RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH A NNW FLOW EXPECTED. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING IN
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH AND KEEP THE
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE FCST.

THE INLAND CLEARING AND WINDS DIMINISHING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT. TEMPS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR
A CHANCE OF FROST UP NORTH. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH FROST TONIGHT LIES
IN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF WIND THAT REMAINS UP. IT
SEEMS THAT A WIDESPREAD FROST IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT WITH A FAIRLY
MOIST AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE AND SOME CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE FROM
LAKE EFFECT OVER NRN LOWER. WE CONTINUED THE PATCHY FROST WORDING
FOR NOW...AND WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FROST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FROM MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT LOOKS
VERY QUIET AND INCREASINGLY MILD. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WE WILL SEE THE EFFECTS FROM THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LOW
SLOWLY BUILD IN OVER THE AREA. WE WILL SEE TEMPS ALOFT RECOVER VERY
NICELY WHICH WILL HELP THE SFC TEMPS FOR THE AREA REBOUND INTO THE
70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. WITH DRY
SOUNDINGS AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURE RANGES
GREATER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH MAXES A BIT WARMER AND MINS A BIT
COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CEILINGS ARE MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT 00Z...BUT THERE ARE
SOME VFR SPOTS SHOWING UP. CLEARING IS EVEN MOVING INTO THE
LAKESHORE. WENT PESSIMISTIC THOUGH IN THE 00Z TAFS AS MODELS SHOW
MOISTURE ROTATING BACK IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT. THE WESTERN TAF SITES MAY BE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE THOUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH OVERALL IN HOW CLOUDS
EVOLVE. THE BOTTOM LINE THOUGH...WE ARE IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND DELTA
T/S OFF THE LAKE EVEN SUPPORT STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. ALL OF
THIS POINTS TOWARDS CLOUDS TRYING TO HANG IN. HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE THEN GOING VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH MUCH OF THE
GUSTINESS GONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 6-11 KNOTS
WILL TREND WESTERLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

ALLOWED THE GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE AND REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAIL OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. WAVES
WILL TAKE UNTIL MORNING TO SUBSIDE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

OBSERVED RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING HAS RANGED
FROM A QUARTER INCH TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST RISES
ARE ONGOING ON SOME RIVERS BUT ALL ARE STILL WELL BELOW BANKFULL.
SEVERAL GAGES HAVE REPORTED CRESTS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. ONLY
CONCERN ARE SOME OF THE CREEKS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MI...WHERE GENERALLY
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND WHERE LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. BEYOND TODAY...THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NO
HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JK







000
FXUS63 KGRR 220017
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
817 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE AREA TO
THE EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR A BIT
INLAND WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE UP NORTH. SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD ON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE TONIGHT. ANY
CLOUDS LEFT OVER ON MONDAY MORNING WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA THEN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE ONLY REAL ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLOUD COVER TRENDS FOR
TONIGHT AND FROST POTENTIAL UP NORTH FOR TONIGHT.

THE RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THIS EVENING FROM NW TO SE. UPPER
LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
SE HALF OF THE CWFA AS OF 1830Z THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS STEADILY
ROTATING TO THE E/SE AND WILL MOVE OUT EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND WILL ROTATE
OUT.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME CLOUDS HOLDING ON ALONG THE LAKESHORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING...MORE CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE INLAND. H850 TEMPS OF AROUND 3-6C TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR ENOUGH OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS TO
REMAIN RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH A NNW FLOW EXPECTED. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING IN
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH AND KEEP THE
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE FCST.

THE INLAND CLEARING AND WINDS DIMINISHING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT. TEMPS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR
A CHANCE OF FROST UP NORTH. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH FROST TONIGHT LIES
IN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF WIND THAT REMAINS UP. IT
SEEMS THAT A WIDESPREAD FROST IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT WITH A FAIRLY
MOIST AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE AND SOME CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE FROM
LAKE EFFECT OVER NRN LOWER. WE CONTINUED THE PATCHY FROST WORDING
FOR NOW...AND WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FROST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FROM MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT LOOKS
VERY QUIET AND INCREASINGLY MILD. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WE WILL SEE THE EFFECTS FROM THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LOW
SLOWLY BUILD IN OVER THE AREA. WE WILL SEE TEMPS ALOFT RECOVER VERY
NICELY WHICH WILL HELP THE SFC TEMPS FOR THE AREA REBOUND INTO THE
70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. WITH DRY
SOUNDINGS AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURE RANGES
GREATER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH MAXES A BIT WARMER AND MINS A BIT
COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CEILINGS ARE MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT 00Z...BUT THERE ARE
SOME VFR SPOTS SHOWING UP. CLEARING IS EVEN MOVING INTO THE
LAKESHORE. WENT PESSIMISTIC THOUGH IN THE 00Z TAFS AS MODELS SHOW
MOISTURE ROTATING BACK IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT. THE WESTERN TAF SITES MAY BE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE THOUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH OVERALL IN HOW CLOUDS
EVOLVE. THE BOTTOM LINE THOUGH...WE ARE IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND DELTA
T/S OFF THE LAKE EVEN SUPPORT STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. ALL OF
THIS POINTS TOWARDS CLOUDS TRYING TO HANG IN. HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE THEN GOING VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH MUCH OF THE
GUSTINESS GONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 6-11 KNOTS
WILL TREND WESTERLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

ALLOWED THE GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE AND REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAIL OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. WAVES
WILL TAKE UNTIL MORNING TO SUBSIDE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

OBSERVED RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING HAS RANGED
FROM A QUARTER INCH TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST RISES
ARE ONGOING ON SOME RIVERS BUT ALL ARE STILL WELL BELOW BANKFULL.
SEVERAL GAGES HAVE REPORTED CRESTS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. ONLY
CONCERN ARE SOME OF THE CREEKS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MI...WHERE GENERALLY
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND WHERE LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. BEYOND TODAY...THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NO
HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JK








000
FXUS63 KGRR 220017
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
817 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE AREA TO
THE EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR A BIT
INLAND WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE UP NORTH. SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD ON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE TONIGHT. ANY
CLOUDS LEFT OVER ON MONDAY MORNING WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA THEN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE ONLY REAL ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLOUD COVER TRENDS FOR
TONIGHT AND FROST POTENTIAL UP NORTH FOR TONIGHT.

THE RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THIS EVENING FROM NW TO SE. UPPER
LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
SE HALF OF THE CWFA AS OF 1830Z THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS STEADILY
ROTATING TO THE E/SE AND WILL MOVE OUT EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND WILL ROTATE
OUT.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME CLOUDS HOLDING ON ALONG THE LAKESHORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING...MORE CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE INLAND. H850 TEMPS OF AROUND 3-6C TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR ENOUGH OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS TO
REMAIN RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH A NNW FLOW EXPECTED. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING IN
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH AND KEEP THE
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE FCST.

THE INLAND CLEARING AND WINDS DIMINISHING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT. TEMPS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR
A CHANCE OF FROST UP NORTH. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH FROST TONIGHT LIES
IN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF WIND THAT REMAINS UP. IT
SEEMS THAT A WIDESPREAD FROST IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT WITH A FAIRLY
MOIST AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE AND SOME CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE FROM
LAKE EFFECT OVER NRN LOWER. WE CONTINUED THE PATCHY FROST WORDING
FOR NOW...AND WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FROST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FROM MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT LOOKS
VERY QUIET AND INCREASINGLY MILD. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WE WILL SEE THE EFFECTS FROM THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LOW
SLOWLY BUILD IN OVER THE AREA. WE WILL SEE TEMPS ALOFT RECOVER VERY
NICELY WHICH WILL HELP THE SFC TEMPS FOR THE AREA REBOUND INTO THE
70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. WITH DRY
SOUNDINGS AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURE RANGES
GREATER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH MAXES A BIT WARMER AND MINS A BIT
COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CEILINGS ARE MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT 00Z...BUT THERE ARE
SOME VFR SPOTS SHOWING UP. CLEARING IS EVEN MOVING INTO THE
LAKESHORE. WENT PESSIMISTIC THOUGH IN THE 00Z TAFS AS MODELS SHOW
MOISTURE ROTATING BACK IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT. THE WESTERN TAF SITES MAY BE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE THOUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH OVERALL IN HOW CLOUDS
EVOLVE. THE BOTTOM LINE THOUGH...WE ARE IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND DELTA
T/S OFF THE LAKE EVEN SUPPORT STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. ALL OF
THIS POINTS TOWARDS CLOUDS TRYING TO HANG IN. HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE THEN GOING VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH MUCH OF THE
GUSTINESS GONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 6-11 KNOTS
WILL TREND WESTERLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

ALLOWED THE GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE AND REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAIL OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. WAVES
WILL TAKE UNTIL MORNING TO SUBSIDE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

OBSERVED RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING HAS RANGED
FROM A QUARTER INCH TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST RISES
ARE ONGOING ON SOME RIVERS BUT ALL ARE STILL WELL BELOW BANKFULL.
SEVERAL GAGES HAVE REPORTED CRESTS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. ONLY
CONCERN ARE SOME OF THE CREEKS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MI...WHERE GENERALLY
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND WHERE LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. BEYOND TODAY...THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NO
HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JK







000
FXUS63 KGRR 220003
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
803 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE AREA TO
THE EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR A BIT
INLAND WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE UP NORTH. SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD ON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE TONIGHT. ANY
CLOUDS LEFT OVER ON MONDAY MORNING WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA THEN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE ONLY REAL ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLOUD COVER TRENDS FOR
TONIGHT AND FROST POTENTIAL UP NORTH FOR TONIGHT.

THE RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THIS EVENING FROM NW TO SE. UPPER
LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
SE HALF OF THE CWFA AS OF 1830Z THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS STEADILY
ROTATING TO THE E/SE AND WILL MOVE OUT EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND WILL ROTATE
OUT.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME CLOUDS HOLDING ON ALONG THE LAKESHORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING...MORE CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE INLAND. H850 TEMPS OF AROUND 3-6C TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR ENOUGH OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS TO
REMAIN RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH A NNW FLOW EXPECTED. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING IN
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH AND KEEP THE
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE FCST.

THE INLAND CLEARING AND WINDS DIMINISHING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT. TEMPS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR
A CHANCE OF FROST UP NORTH. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH FROST TONIGHT LIES
IN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF WIND THAT REMAINS UP. IT
SEEMS THAT A WIDESPREAD FROST IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT WITH A FAIRLY
MOIST AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE AND SOME CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE FROM
LAKE EFFECT OVER NRN LOWER. WE CONTINUED THE PATCHY FROST WORDING
FOR NOW...AND WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FROST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FROM MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT LOOKS
VERY QUIET AND INCREASINGLY MILD. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WE WILL SEE THE EFFECTS FROM THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LOW
SLOWLY BUILD IN OVER THE AREA. WE WILL SEE TEMPS ALOFT RECOVER VERY
NICELY WHICH WILL HELP THE SFC TEMPS FOR THE AREA REBOUND INTO THE
70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. WITH DRY
SOUNDINGS AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURE RANGES
GREATER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH MAXES A BIT WARMER AND MINS A BIT
COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RAIN ENDS AND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ALSO DECREASE TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS BY 06Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

ALLOWED THE GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE AND REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAIL OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. WAVES
WILL TAKE UNTIL MORNING TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

OBSERVED RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING HAS RANGED
FROM A QUARTER INCH TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST RISES
ARE ONGOING ON SOME RIVERS BUT ALL ARE STILL WELL BELOW BANKFULL.
SEVERAL GAGES HAVE REPORTED CRESTS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. ONLY
CONCERN ARE SOME OF THE CREEKS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MI...WHERE GENERALLY
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND WHERE LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. BEYOND TODAY...THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NO
HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JK







000
FXUS63 KGRR 220003
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
803 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE AREA TO
THE EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR A BIT
INLAND WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE UP NORTH. SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD ON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE TONIGHT. ANY
CLOUDS LEFT OVER ON MONDAY MORNING WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA THEN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE ONLY REAL ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLOUD COVER TRENDS FOR
TONIGHT AND FROST POTENTIAL UP NORTH FOR TONIGHT.

THE RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THIS EVENING FROM NW TO SE. UPPER
LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
SE HALF OF THE CWFA AS OF 1830Z THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS STEADILY
ROTATING TO THE E/SE AND WILL MOVE OUT EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND WILL ROTATE
OUT.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME CLOUDS HOLDING ON ALONG THE LAKESHORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING...MORE CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE INLAND. H850 TEMPS OF AROUND 3-6C TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR ENOUGH OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS TO
REMAIN RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH A NNW FLOW EXPECTED. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING IN
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH AND KEEP THE
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE FCST.

THE INLAND CLEARING AND WINDS DIMINISHING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT. TEMPS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR
A CHANCE OF FROST UP NORTH. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH FROST TONIGHT LIES
IN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF WIND THAT REMAINS UP. IT
SEEMS THAT A WIDESPREAD FROST IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT WITH A FAIRLY
MOIST AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE AND SOME CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE FROM
LAKE EFFECT OVER NRN LOWER. WE CONTINUED THE PATCHY FROST WORDING
FOR NOW...AND WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FROST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FROM MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT LOOKS
VERY QUIET AND INCREASINGLY MILD. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WE WILL SEE THE EFFECTS FROM THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LOW
SLOWLY BUILD IN OVER THE AREA. WE WILL SEE TEMPS ALOFT RECOVER VERY
NICELY WHICH WILL HELP THE SFC TEMPS FOR THE AREA REBOUND INTO THE
70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. WITH DRY
SOUNDINGS AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURE RANGES
GREATER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH MAXES A BIT WARMER AND MINS A BIT
COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RAIN ENDS AND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ALSO DECREASE TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS BY 06Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

ALLOWED THE GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE AND REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAIL OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. WAVES
WILL TAKE UNTIL MORNING TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

OBSERVED RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING HAS RANGED
FROM A QUARTER INCH TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST RISES
ARE ONGOING ON SOME RIVERS BUT ALL ARE STILL WELL BELOW BANKFULL.
SEVERAL GAGES HAVE REPORTED CRESTS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. ONLY
CONCERN ARE SOME OF THE CREEKS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MI...WHERE GENERALLY
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND WHERE LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. BEYOND TODAY...THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NO
HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JK








000
FXUS63 KGRR 211859
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE AREA TO
THE EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR A BIT
INLAND WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE UP NORTH. SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD ON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE TONIGHT. ANY
CLOUDS LEFT OVER ON MONDAY MORNING WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA THEN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE ONLY REAL ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLOUD COVER TRENDS FOR
TONIGHT AND FROST POTENTIAL UP NORTH FOR TONIGHT.

THE RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THIS EVENING FROM NW TO SE. UPPER
LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
SE HALF OF THE CWFA AS OF 1830Z THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS STEADILY
ROTATING TO THE E/SE AND WILL MOVE OUT EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND WILL ROTATE
OUT.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME CLOUDS HOLDING ON ALONG THE LAKESHORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING...MORE CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE INLAND. H850 TEMPS OF AROUND 3-6C TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR ENOUGH OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS TO
REMAIN RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH A NNW FLOW EXPECTED. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING IN
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH AND KEEP THE
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE FCST.

THE INLAND CLEARING AND WINDS DIMINISHING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT. TEMPS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR
A CHANCE OF FROST UP NORTH. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH FROST TONIGHT LIES
IN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF WIND THAT REMAINS UP. IT
SEEMS THAT A WIDESPREAD FROST IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT WITH A FAIRLY
MOIST AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE AND SOME CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE FROM
LAKE EFFECT OVER NRN LOWER. WE CONTINUED THE PATCHY FROST WORDING
FOR NOW...AND WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FROST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FROM MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT LOOKS
VERY QUIET AND INCREASINGLY MILD. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WE WILL SEE THE EFFECTS FROM THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LOW
SLOWLY BUILD IN OVER THE AREA. WE WILL SEE TEMPS ALOFT RECOVER VERY
NICELY WHICH WILL HELP THE SFC TEMPS FOR THE AREA REBOUND INTO THE
70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. WITH DRY
SOUNDINGS AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURE RANGES
GREATER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH MAXES A BIT WARMER AND MINS A BIT
COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RAIN ENDS AND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ALSO DECREASE TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS BY 06Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

WE WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING AS IS INTO THIS EVENING. IT HAS
BEEN VERIFYING WELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE COAST WITH 35 KNOTS BEING
OBSERVED WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. WAVES HAVE BEEN UP AROUND
10 FEET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING...AND COME DOWN
QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. AFTER THE WINDS
AND WAVES DIMINISH WITH THIS CURRENT EVENT...NO HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

OBSERVED RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING HAS RANGED
FROM A QUARTER INCH TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST RISES
ARE ONGOING ON SOME RIVERS BUT ALL ARE STILL WELL BELOW BANKFULL.
SEVERAL GAGES HAVE REPORTED CRESTS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. ONLY
CONCERN ARE SOME OF THE CREEKS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MI...WHERE GENERALLY
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND WHERE LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. BEYOND TODAY...THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NO
HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 211859
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE AREA TO
THE EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR A BIT
INLAND WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE UP NORTH. SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD ON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE TONIGHT. ANY
CLOUDS LEFT OVER ON MONDAY MORNING WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA THEN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE ONLY REAL ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLOUD COVER TRENDS FOR
TONIGHT AND FROST POTENTIAL UP NORTH FOR TONIGHT.

THE RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THIS EVENING FROM NW TO SE. UPPER
LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
SE HALF OF THE CWFA AS OF 1830Z THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS STEADILY
ROTATING TO THE E/SE AND WILL MOVE OUT EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND WILL ROTATE
OUT.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME CLOUDS HOLDING ON ALONG THE LAKESHORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING...MORE CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE INLAND. H850 TEMPS OF AROUND 3-6C TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR ENOUGH OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS TO
REMAIN RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH A NNW FLOW EXPECTED. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING IN
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH AND KEEP THE
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE FCST.

THE INLAND CLEARING AND WINDS DIMINISHING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT. TEMPS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR
A CHANCE OF FROST UP NORTH. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH FROST TONIGHT LIES
IN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF WIND THAT REMAINS UP. IT
SEEMS THAT A WIDESPREAD FROST IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT WITH A FAIRLY
MOIST AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE AND SOME CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE FROM
LAKE EFFECT OVER NRN LOWER. WE CONTINUED THE PATCHY FROST WORDING
FOR NOW...AND WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FROST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FROM MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT LOOKS
VERY QUIET AND INCREASINGLY MILD. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WE WILL SEE THE EFFECTS FROM THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LOW
SLOWLY BUILD IN OVER THE AREA. WE WILL SEE TEMPS ALOFT RECOVER VERY
NICELY WHICH WILL HELP THE SFC TEMPS FOR THE AREA REBOUND INTO THE
70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. WITH DRY
SOUNDINGS AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURE RANGES
GREATER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH MAXES A BIT WARMER AND MINS A BIT
COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RAIN ENDS AND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ALSO DECREASE TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS BY 06Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

WE WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING AS IS INTO THIS EVENING. IT HAS
BEEN VERIFYING WELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE COAST WITH 35 KNOTS BEING
OBSERVED WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. WAVES HAVE BEEN UP AROUND
10 FEET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING...AND COME DOWN
QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. AFTER THE WINDS
AND WAVES DIMINISH WITH THIS CURRENT EVENT...NO HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

OBSERVED RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING HAS RANGED
FROM A QUARTER INCH TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST RISES
ARE ONGOING ON SOME RIVERS BUT ALL ARE STILL WELL BELOW BANKFULL.
SEVERAL GAGES HAVE REPORTED CRESTS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. ONLY
CONCERN ARE SOME OF THE CREEKS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MI...WHERE GENERALLY
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND WHERE LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. BEYOND TODAY...THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NO
HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ






000
FXUS63 KGRR 211725
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
125 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT TONIGHT
AND ALLOW SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

WE HAVE UPDATED THE FCST THIS MORNING TO BUMP UP RAIN CHCS TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE IS A BATCH OF RAIN EXTENDING FROM MUSKEGON TO
MT. PLEASANT THAT IS AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW. THERE IS THEN
ANOTHER BATCH WRAPPING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW POISED TO
MOVE INTO THE NRN COUNTIES IN NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL ALL THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

A SMALL THUNDER THREAT STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE CWFA NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
SMALL HAIL OUT OF ANY ENHANCED SHOWER OR STORM WITH FREEZING
LEVELS AROUND 8K FEET OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE FORM OF A NON SEVERE AND WEAKENING
QLCS. NO SEVERE WX REPORTS WERE NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVED
ACROSS WI EARLIER TONIGHT. INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA IS WEAK BUT
STRONG SPEED SHEAR IS NOTED. THEREFORE ISOLATED MINI BOWS MAY RESULT
IN GUSTS TO AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT NO SEVERE
WX IS ANTICIPATED. KGRR RADAR TRENDS THE PAST HOUR OR SO ALREADY
INDICATE WEAKENING. BIG SABLE POINT REPORTED A PEAK GUST OF 41 MPH
AS THE STORMS CAME ONSHORE AFTER JUST AFTER 06Z EARLY THIS MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD BY 18Z. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY DUE TO INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE POOL OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH... HIGHEST RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

FAIR WX IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FCST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AS THE H5 TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY AND ADVECT DRIER AIR IN. SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE AT LEAST TEN DEGREES MILDER TUESDAY WHEN MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. MAX TEMPS DAILY WILL REACH THE 70S WITH
MIN TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE. THE MILDEST
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MILD AND
DRY WX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RAIN ENDS AND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ALSO DECREASE TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS BY 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

WE HAVE UPGRADED THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE TO A GALE WARNING THROUGH
00Z THIS EVENING PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER LOW IS HELPING TO MIX DOWN 30 TO 35
KNOT WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING WITH NW FLOW. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP A TAD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

CAN NOT RULE OUT WATERSPOUTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER LOW
NEARBY...HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY NEGATE THE THREAT
ENOUGH TO LEAVE A MENTION OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
SOME RISES IN AREA RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR BUT OTHER
THAN ISOLATED MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM TYPE ISSUES EARLY THIS
MORNING... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. IT IS
NOTED THAT THE GRAND RIVER AT JACKSON QUICKLY SPIKED UP TO ABOVE 12
FEET YESTERDAY EVENING BUT REMAINED BELOW ACTION STAGE AND THE RIVER
LEVEL THERE HAS ALREADY TRENDED BACK DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 211725
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
125 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT TONIGHT
AND ALLOW SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

WE HAVE UPDATED THE FCST THIS MORNING TO BUMP UP RAIN CHCS TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE IS A BATCH OF RAIN EXTENDING FROM MUSKEGON TO
MT. PLEASANT THAT IS AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW. THERE IS THEN
ANOTHER BATCH WRAPPING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW POISED TO
MOVE INTO THE NRN COUNTIES IN NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL ALL THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

A SMALL THUNDER THREAT STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE CWFA NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
SMALL HAIL OUT OF ANY ENHANCED SHOWER OR STORM WITH FREEZING
LEVELS AROUND 8K FEET OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE FORM OF A NON SEVERE AND WEAKENING
QLCS. NO SEVERE WX REPORTS WERE NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVED
ACROSS WI EARLIER TONIGHT. INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA IS WEAK BUT
STRONG SPEED SHEAR IS NOTED. THEREFORE ISOLATED MINI BOWS MAY RESULT
IN GUSTS TO AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT NO SEVERE
WX IS ANTICIPATED. KGRR RADAR TRENDS THE PAST HOUR OR SO ALREADY
INDICATE WEAKENING. BIG SABLE POINT REPORTED A PEAK GUST OF 41 MPH
AS THE STORMS CAME ONSHORE AFTER JUST AFTER 06Z EARLY THIS MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD BY 18Z. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY DUE TO INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE POOL OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH... HIGHEST RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

FAIR WX IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FCST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AS THE H5 TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY AND ADVECT DRIER AIR IN. SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE AT LEAST TEN DEGREES MILDER TUESDAY WHEN MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. MAX TEMPS DAILY WILL REACH THE 70S WITH
MIN TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE. THE MILDEST
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MILD AND
DRY WX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RAIN ENDS AND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ALSO DECREASE TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS BY 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

WE HAVE UPGRADED THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE TO A GALE WARNING THROUGH
00Z THIS EVENING PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER LOW IS HELPING TO MIX DOWN 30 TO 35
KNOT WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING WITH NW FLOW. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP A TAD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

CAN NOT RULE OUT WATERSPOUTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER LOW
NEARBY...HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY NEGATE THE THREAT
ENOUGH TO LEAVE A MENTION OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
SOME RISES IN AREA RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR BUT OTHER
THAN ISOLATED MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM TYPE ISSUES EARLY THIS
MORNING... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. IT IS
NOTED THAT THE GRAND RIVER AT JACKSON QUICKLY SPIKED UP TO ABOVE 12
FEET YESTERDAY EVENING BUT REMAINED BELOW ACTION STAGE AND THE RIVER
LEVEL THERE HAS ALREADY TRENDED BACK DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...NJJ








000
FXUS63 KGRR 211506
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1106 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT TONIGHT
AND ALLOW SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

WE HAVE UPDATED THE FCST THIS MORNING TO BUMP UP RAIN CHCS TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE IS A BATCH OF RAIN EXTENDING FROM MUSKEGON TO
MT. PLEASANT THAT IS AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW. THERE IS THEN
ANOTHER BATCH WRAPPING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW POISED TO
MOVE INTO THE NRN COUNTIES IN NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL ALL THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

A SMALL THUNDER THREAT STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE CWFA NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
SMALL HAIL OUT OF ANY ENHANCED SHOWER OR STORM WITH FREEZING
LEVELS AROUND 8K FEET OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE FORM OF A NON SEVERE AND WEAKENING
QLCS. NO SEVERE WX REPORTS WERE NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVED
ACROSS WI EARLIER TONIGHT. INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA IS WEAK BUT
STRONG SPEED SHEAR IS NOTED. THEREFORE ISOLATED MINI BOWS MAY RESULT
IN GUSTS TO AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT NO SEVERE
WX IS ANTICIPATED. KGRR RADAR TRENDS THE PAST HOUR OR SO ALREADY
INDICATE WEAKENING. BIG SABLE POINT REPORTED A PEAK GUST OF 41 MPH
AS THE STORMS CAME ONSHORE AFTER JUST AFTER 06Z EARLY THIS MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD BY 18Z. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY DUE TO INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE POOL OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH... HIGHEST RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

FAIR WX IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FCST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AS THE H5 TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY AND ADVECT DRIER AIR IN. SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE AT LEAST TEN DEGREES MILDER TUESDAY WHEN MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. MAX TEMPS DAILY WILL REACH THE 70S WITH
MIN TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE. THE MILDEST
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MILD AND
DRY WX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOW
CEILING AND SHOWERS...THIS WILL LARGELY BE FROM 14Z TILL 18Z. ALSO
DURING THIS TIME THE MIXING HEIGHT INCREASES AND THAT SHOULD MIX
DOWN WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. BEHIND THE TROUGH EXPECT A
PERIOD OF VFR CIGS INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT WRAP AROUND LOW
CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN SO MVFR CIGS WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL. WINDS
SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

WE HAVE UPGRADED THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE TO A GALE WARNING THROUGH
00Z THIS EVENING PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER LOW IS HELPING TO MIX DOWN 30 TO 35
KNOT WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING WITH NW FLOW. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP A TAD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

CAN NOT RULE OUT WATERSPOUTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER LOW
NEARBY...HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY NEGATE THE THREAT
ENOUGH TO LEAVE A MENTION OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
SOME RISES IN AREA RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR BUT OTHER
THAN ISOLATED MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM TYPE ISSUES EARLY THIS
MORNING... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. IT IS
NOTED THAT THE GRAND RIVER AT JACKSON QUICKLY SPIKED UP TO ABOVE 12
FEET YESTERDAY EVENING BUT REMAINED BELOW ACTION STAGE AND THE RIVER
LEVEL THERE HAS ALREADY TRENDED BACK DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 211506
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1106 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT TONIGHT
AND ALLOW SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

WE HAVE UPDATED THE FCST THIS MORNING TO BUMP UP RAIN CHCS TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE IS A BATCH OF RAIN EXTENDING FROM MUSKEGON TO
MT. PLEASANT THAT IS AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW. THERE IS THEN
ANOTHER BATCH WRAPPING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW POISED TO
MOVE INTO THE NRN COUNTIES IN NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL ALL THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

A SMALL THUNDER THREAT STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE CWFA NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
SMALL HAIL OUT OF ANY ENHANCED SHOWER OR STORM WITH FREEZING
LEVELS AROUND 8K FEET OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE FORM OF A NON SEVERE AND WEAKENING
QLCS. NO SEVERE WX REPORTS WERE NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVED
ACROSS WI EARLIER TONIGHT. INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA IS WEAK BUT
STRONG SPEED SHEAR IS NOTED. THEREFORE ISOLATED MINI BOWS MAY RESULT
IN GUSTS TO AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT NO SEVERE
WX IS ANTICIPATED. KGRR RADAR TRENDS THE PAST HOUR OR SO ALREADY
INDICATE WEAKENING. BIG SABLE POINT REPORTED A PEAK GUST OF 41 MPH
AS THE STORMS CAME ONSHORE AFTER JUST AFTER 06Z EARLY THIS MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD BY 18Z. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY DUE TO INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE POOL OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH... HIGHEST RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

FAIR WX IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FCST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AS THE H5 TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY AND ADVECT DRIER AIR IN. SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE AT LEAST TEN DEGREES MILDER TUESDAY WHEN MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. MAX TEMPS DAILY WILL REACH THE 70S WITH
MIN TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE. THE MILDEST
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MILD AND
DRY WX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOW
CEILING AND SHOWERS...THIS WILL LARGELY BE FROM 14Z TILL 18Z. ALSO
DURING THIS TIME THE MIXING HEIGHT INCREASES AND THAT SHOULD MIX
DOWN WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. BEHIND THE TROUGH EXPECT A
PERIOD OF VFR CIGS INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT WRAP AROUND LOW
CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN SO MVFR CIGS WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL. WINDS
SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

WE HAVE UPGRADED THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE TO A GALE WARNING THROUGH
00Z THIS EVENING PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER LOW IS HELPING TO MIX DOWN 30 TO 35
KNOT WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING WITH NW FLOW. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP A TAD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

CAN NOT RULE OUT WATERSPOUTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER LOW
NEARBY...HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY NEGATE THE THREAT
ENOUGH TO LEAVE A MENTION OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
SOME RISES IN AREA RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR BUT OTHER
THAN ISOLATED MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM TYPE ISSUES EARLY THIS
MORNING... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. IT IS
NOTED THAT THE GRAND RIVER AT JACKSON QUICKLY SPIKED UP TO ABOVE 12
FEET YESTERDAY EVENING BUT REMAINED BELOW ACTION STAGE AND THE RIVER
LEVEL THERE HAS ALREADY TRENDED BACK DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...NJJ








000
FXUS63 KGRR 211143
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
743 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT TONIGHT
AND ALLOW SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE FORM OF A NON SEVERE AND WEAKENING
QLCS. NO SEVERE WX REPORTS WERE NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVED
ACROSS WI EARLIER TONIGHT. INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA IS WEAK BUT
STRONG SPEED SHEAR IS NOTED. THEREFORE ISOLATED MINI BOWS MAY RESULT
IN GUSTS TO AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT NO SEVERE
WX IS ANTICIPATED. KGRR RADAR TRENDS THE PAST HOUR OR SO ALREADY
INDICATE WEAKENING. BIG SABLE POINT REPORTED A PEAK GUST OF 41 MPH
AS THE STORMS CAME ONSHORE AFTER JUST AFTER 06Z EARLY THIS MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD BY 18Z. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY DUE TO INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE POOL OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH... HIGHEST RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

FAIR WX IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FCST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AS THE H5 TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY AND ADVECT DRIER AIR IN. SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE AT LEAST TEN DEGREES MILDER TUESDAY WHEN MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. MAX TEMPS DAILY WILL REACH THE 70S WITH
MIN TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE. THE MILDEST
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MILD AND
DRY WX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOW
CEILING AND SHOWERS...THIS WILL LARGELY BE FROM 14Z TILL 18Z. ALSO
DURING THIS TIME THE MIXING HEIGHT INCREASES AND THAT SHOULD MIX
DOWN WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. BEHIND THE TROUGH EXPECT A
PERIOD OF VFR CIGS INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT WRAP AROUND LOW
CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN SO MVFR CIGS WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL. WINDS
SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
TO 20 TO 30 KTS CAUSING WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 TO 8
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY FLIRT
WITH GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL STICK WITH THE THINKING OF
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT AND CONTINUE TO COVER THIS WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AS WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
SOME RISES IN AREA RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR BUT OTHER
THAN ISOLATED MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM TYPE ISSUES EARLY THIS
MORNING... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. IT IS
NOTED THAT THE GRAND RIVER AT JACKSON QUICKLY SPIKED UP TO ABOVE 12
FEET YESTERDAY EVENING BUT REMAINED BELOW ACTION STAGE AND THE RIVER
LEVEL THERE HAS ALREADY TRENDED BACK DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 211143
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
743 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT TONIGHT
AND ALLOW SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE FORM OF A NON SEVERE AND WEAKENING
QLCS. NO SEVERE WX REPORTS WERE NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVED
ACROSS WI EARLIER TONIGHT. INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA IS WEAK BUT
STRONG SPEED SHEAR IS NOTED. THEREFORE ISOLATED MINI BOWS MAY RESULT
IN GUSTS TO AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT NO SEVERE
WX IS ANTICIPATED. KGRR RADAR TRENDS THE PAST HOUR OR SO ALREADY
INDICATE WEAKENING. BIG SABLE POINT REPORTED A PEAK GUST OF 41 MPH
AS THE STORMS CAME ONSHORE AFTER JUST AFTER 06Z EARLY THIS MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD BY 18Z. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY DUE TO INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE POOL OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH... HIGHEST RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

FAIR WX IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FCST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AS THE H5 TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY AND ADVECT DRIER AIR IN. SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE AT LEAST TEN DEGREES MILDER TUESDAY WHEN MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. MAX TEMPS DAILY WILL REACH THE 70S WITH
MIN TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE. THE MILDEST
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MILD AND
DRY WX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOW
CEILING AND SHOWERS...THIS WILL LARGELY BE FROM 14Z TILL 18Z. ALSO
DURING THIS TIME THE MIXING HEIGHT INCREASES AND THAT SHOULD MIX
DOWN WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. BEHIND THE TROUGH EXPECT A
PERIOD OF VFR CIGS INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT WRAP AROUND LOW
CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN SO MVFR CIGS WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL. WINDS
SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
TO 20 TO 30 KTS CAUSING WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 TO 8
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY FLIRT
WITH GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL STICK WITH THE THINKING OF
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT AND CONTINUE TO COVER THIS WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AS WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
SOME RISES IN AREA RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR BUT OTHER
THAN ISOLATED MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM TYPE ISSUES EARLY THIS
MORNING... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. IT IS
NOTED THAT THE GRAND RIVER AT JACKSON QUICKLY SPIKED UP TO ABOVE 12
FEET YESTERDAY EVENING BUT REMAINED BELOW ACTION STAGE AND THE RIVER
LEVEL THERE HAS ALREADY TRENDED BACK DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 210657
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT TONIGHT
AND ALLOW SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE FORM OF A NON SEVERE AND WEAKENING
QLCS. NO SEVERE WX REPORTS WERE NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVED
ACROSS WI EARLIER TONIGHT. INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA IS WEAK BUT
STRONG SPEED SHEAR IS NOTED. THEREFORE ISOLATED MINI BOWS MAY RESULT
IN GUSTS TO AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT NO SEVERE
WX IS ANTICIPATED. KGRR RADAR TRENDS THE PAST HOUR OR SO ALREADY
INDICATE WEAKENING. BIG SABLE POINT REPORTED A PEAK GUST OF 41 MPH
AS THE STORMS CAME ONSHORE AFTER JUST AFTER 06Z EARLY THIS MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD BY 18Z. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY DUE TO INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE POOL OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH... HIGHEST RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

FAIR WX IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FCST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AS THE H5 TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY AND ADVECT DRIER AIR IN. SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE AT LEAST TEN DEGREES MILDER TUESDAY WHEN MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. MAX TEMPS DAILY WILL REACH THE 70S WITH
MIN TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE. THE MILDEST
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MILD AND
DRY WX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO PRIMARILY
MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUD COVER AND SOME
PATCHY FOG. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM. PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY
EVENING AS CLEARING DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
TO 20 TO 30 KTS CAUSING WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 TO 8
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY FLIRT
WITH GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL STICK WITH THE THINKING OF
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT AND CONTINUE TO COVER THIS WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AS WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
SOME RISES IN AREA RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR BUT OTHER
THAN ISOLATED MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM TYPE ISSUES EARLY THIS
MORNING... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. IT IS
NOTED THAT THE GRAND RIVER AT JACKSON QUICKLY SPIKED UP TO ABOVE 12
FEET YESTERDAY EVENING BUT REMAINED BELOW ACTION STAGE AND THE RIVER
LEVEL THERE HAS ALREADY TRENDED BACK DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 210657
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT TONIGHT
AND ALLOW SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE FORM OF A NON SEVERE AND WEAKENING
QLCS. NO SEVERE WX REPORTS WERE NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVED
ACROSS WI EARLIER TONIGHT. INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA IS WEAK BUT
STRONG SPEED SHEAR IS NOTED. THEREFORE ISOLATED MINI BOWS MAY RESULT
IN GUSTS TO AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT NO SEVERE
WX IS ANTICIPATED. KGRR RADAR TRENDS THE PAST HOUR OR SO ALREADY
INDICATE WEAKENING. BIG SABLE POINT REPORTED A PEAK GUST OF 41 MPH
AS THE STORMS CAME ONSHORE AFTER JUST AFTER 06Z EARLY THIS MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD BY 18Z. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY DUE TO INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE POOL OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH... HIGHEST RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

FAIR WX IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FCST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AS THE H5 TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY AND ADVECT DRIER AIR IN. SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE AT LEAST TEN DEGREES MILDER TUESDAY WHEN MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. MAX TEMPS DAILY WILL REACH THE 70S WITH
MIN TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE. THE MILDEST
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MILD AND
DRY WX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO PRIMARILY
MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUD COVER AND SOME
PATCHY FOG. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM. PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY
EVENING AS CLEARING DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
TO 20 TO 30 KTS CAUSING WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 TO 8
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY FLIRT
WITH GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL STICK WITH THE THINKING OF
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT AND CONTINUE TO COVER THIS WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AS WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
SOME RISES IN AREA RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR BUT OTHER
THAN ISOLATED MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM TYPE ISSUES EARLY THIS
MORNING... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. IT IS
NOTED THAT THE GRAND RIVER AT JACKSON QUICKLY SPIKED UP TO ABOVE 12
FEET YESTERDAY EVENING BUT REMAINED BELOW ACTION STAGE AND THE RIVER
LEVEL THERE HAS ALREADY TRENDED BACK DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS









000
FXUS63 KGRR 210313
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1115 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 915 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY LATE
IN THE DAY WITH PATCH FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASANT WEEK EXPECTED WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE NEXT
SHOT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COMING FROM THE AREA OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY IN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THESE SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LIGHTNING ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

RADAR TRENDS SHOW STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA.
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED A BIT WITH LI/S NEAR -2C. HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE. THAT CINH
DECREASES TOWARD THE FAR SRN CWA. IF WE`RE GOING TO SEE SVR STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE OVER THE FAR SRN CWA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
THE GREATEST SHEAR IS...NEAR 50 KTS. MID LEVEL JET MOVING IN WILL
ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. SPC HAS PLACED THE SRN ROW OF
COUNTIES IN A SVR WATCH INTO THE EVENING. THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL
LAST THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH
RANGE ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH BY AFTERNOON SETTING THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS OVER
THE FAR NE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS THERE IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. WITH DRY
SOUNDINGS AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURE RANGES
GREATER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH MAXES A BIT WARMER AND MINS A BIT
COOLER. MADE SOME TWEAKS IN THAT DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO PRIMARILY
MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUD COVER AND SOME
PATCHY FOG. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM. PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY
EVENING AS CLEARING DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CONTINUED WITH THE SCA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY BUT REMAIN JUST BELOW GALES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY GIVEN QPF OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...ANY LOCALLY PERSISTENT CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO SMALL STREAM
AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES. PER NCRFC ENSEMBLE QPF RIVER
SCENARIOS...SOME OF THE SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MI MAY APPROACH BANKFULL IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACHIEVE THE MAX
EXPECTED /95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE INTERVAL/ QPF THRESHOLD.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MACZKO
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...93









000
FXUS63 KGRR 210313
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1115 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 915 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY LATE
IN THE DAY WITH PATCH FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASANT WEEK EXPECTED WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE NEXT
SHOT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COMING FROM THE AREA OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY IN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THESE SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LIGHTNING ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

RADAR TRENDS SHOW STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA.
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED A BIT WITH LI/S NEAR -2C. HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE. THAT CINH
DECREASES TOWARD THE FAR SRN CWA. IF WE`RE GOING TO SEE SVR STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE OVER THE FAR SRN CWA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
THE GREATEST SHEAR IS...NEAR 50 KTS. MID LEVEL JET MOVING IN WILL
ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. SPC HAS PLACED THE SRN ROW OF
COUNTIES IN A SVR WATCH INTO THE EVENING. THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL
LAST THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH
RANGE ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH BY AFTERNOON SETTING THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS OVER
THE FAR NE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS THERE IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. WITH DRY
SOUNDINGS AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURE RANGES
GREATER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH MAXES A BIT WARMER AND MINS A BIT
COOLER. MADE SOME TWEAKS IN THAT DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO PRIMARILY
MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUD COVER AND SOME
PATCHY FOG. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM. PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY
EVENING AS CLEARING DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CONTINUED WITH THE SCA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY BUT REMAIN JUST BELOW GALES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY GIVEN QPF OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...ANY LOCALLY PERSISTENT CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO SMALL STREAM
AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES. PER NCRFC ENSEMBLE QPF RIVER
SCENARIOS...SOME OF THE SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MI MAY APPROACH BANKFULL IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACHIEVE THE MAX
EXPECTED /95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE INTERVAL/ QPF THRESHOLD.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MACZKO
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...93








000
FXUS63 KGRR 210112
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
912 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 915 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY LATE
IN THE DAY WITH PATCH FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASANT WEEK EXPECTED WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE NEXT
SHOT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COMING FROM THE AREA OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY IN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THESE SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LIGHTNING ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

RADAR TRENDS SHOW STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA.
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED A BIT WITH LI/S NEAR -2C. HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE. THAT CINH
DECREASES TOWARD THE FAR SRN CWA. IF WE`RE GOING TO SEE SVR STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE OVER THE FAR SRN CWA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
THE GREATEST SHEAR IS...NEAR 50 KTS. MID LEVEL JET MOVING IN WILL
ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. SPC HAS PLACED THE SRN ROW OF
COUNTIES IN A SVR WATCH INTO THE EVENING. THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL
LAST THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH
RANGE ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH BY AFTERNOON SETTING THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS OVER
THE FAR NE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS THERE IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. WITH DRY
SOUNDINGS AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURE RANGES
GREATER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH MAXES A BIT WARMER AND MINS A BIT
COOLER. MADE SOME TWEAKS IN THAT DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS STILL AFFECTING OUR EASTERNMOST TERMINALS KLAN AND KJXN WILL
MOVE OUT BY MID EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP THAT MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS
TO DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN STAY PRIMARILY MVFR THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CONTINUED WITH THE SCA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY BUT REMAIN JUST BELOW GALES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY GIVEN QPF OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...ANY LOCALLY PERSISTENT CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO SMALL STREAM
AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES. PER NCRFC ENSEMBLE QPF RIVER
SCENARIOS...SOME OF THE SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MI MAY APPROACH BANKFULL IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACHIEVE THE MAX
EXPECTED /95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE INTERVAL/ QPF THRESHOLD.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MACZKO
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...93








000
FXUS63 KGRR 210112
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
912 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 915 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY LATE
IN THE DAY WITH PATCH FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASANT WEEK EXPECTED WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE NEXT
SHOT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COMING FROM THE AREA OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY IN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THESE SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LIGHTNING ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

RADAR TRENDS SHOW STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA.
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED A BIT WITH LI/S NEAR -2C. HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE. THAT CINH
DECREASES TOWARD THE FAR SRN CWA. IF WE`RE GOING TO SEE SVR STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE OVER THE FAR SRN CWA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
THE GREATEST SHEAR IS...NEAR 50 KTS. MID LEVEL JET MOVING IN WILL
ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. SPC HAS PLACED THE SRN ROW OF
COUNTIES IN A SVR WATCH INTO THE EVENING. THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL
LAST THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH
RANGE ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH BY AFTERNOON SETTING THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS OVER
THE FAR NE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS THERE IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. WITH DRY
SOUNDINGS AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURE RANGES
GREATER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH MAXES A BIT WARMER AND MINS A BIT
COOLER. MADE SOME TWEAKS IN THAT DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS STILL AFFECTING OUR EASTERNMOST TERMINALS KLAN AND KJXN WILL
MOVE OUT BY MID EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP THAT MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS
TO DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN STAY PRIMARILY MVFR THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CONTINUED WITH THE SCA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY BUT REMAIN JUST BELOW GALES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY GIVEN QPF OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...ANY LOCALLY PERSISTENT CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO SMALL STREAM
AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES. PER NCRFC ENSEMBLE QPF RIVER
SCENARIOS...SOME OF THE SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MI MAY APPROACH BANKFULL IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACHIEVE THE MAX
EXPECTED /95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE INTERVAL/ QPF THRESHOLD.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MACZKO
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...93









000
FXUS63 KGRR 202331
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
730 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT TRIGGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE CLEARING DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY. AS
SKIES CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF US-10.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED TO REFLECT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLATION.
ALSO CLEANED UP PCPN GRIDS AND REFLECT LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
EVENING. STILL LOOKING AT PCPN MOVING BACK IN AFTER 06Z WITH THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

RADAR TRENDS SHOW STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA.
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED A BIT WITH LI/S NEAR -2C. HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE. THAT CINH
DECREASES TOWARD THE FAR SRN CWA. IF WE`RE GOING TO SEE SVR STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE OVER THE FAR SRN CWA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
THE GREATEST SHEAR IS...NEAR 50 KTS. MID LEVEL JET MOVING IN WILL
ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. SPC HAS PLACED THE SRN ROW OF
COUNTIES IN A SVR WATCH INTO THE EVENING. THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL
LAST THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH
RANGE ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH BY AFTERNOON SETTING THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS OVER
THE FAR NE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS THERE IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. WITH DRY
SOUNDINGS AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURE RANGES
GREATER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH MAXES A BIT WARMER AND MINS A BIT
COOLER. MADE SOME TWEAKS IN THAT DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS STILL AFFECTING OUR EASTERNMOST TERMINALS KLAN AND KJXN WILL
MOVE OUT BY MID EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP THAT MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS
TO DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN STAY PRIMARILY MVFR THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CONTINUED WITH THE SCA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY BUT REMAIN JUST BELOW GALES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY GIVEN QPF OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...ANY LOCALLY PERSISTENT CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO SMALL STREAM
AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES. PER NCRFC ENSEMBLE QPF RIVER
SCENARIOS...SOME OF THE SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MI MAY APPROACH BANKFULL IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACHIEVE THE MAX
EXPECTED /95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE INTERVAL/ QPF THRESHOLD.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...93











000
FXUS63 KGRR 202331
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
730 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT TRIGGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE CLEARING DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY. AS
SKIES CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF US-10.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED TO REFLECT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLATION.
ALSO CLEANED UP PCPN GRIDS AND REFLECT LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
EVENING. STILL LOOKING AT PCPN MOVING BACK IN AFTER 06Z WITH THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

RADAR TRENDS SHOW STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA.
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED A BIT WITH LI/S NEAR -2C. HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE. THAT CINH
DECREASES TOWARD THE FAR SRN CWA. IF WE`RE GOING TO SEE SVR STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE OVER THE FAR SRN CWA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
THE GREATEST SHEAR IS...NEAR 50 KTS. MID LEVEL JET MOVING IN WILL
ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. SPC HAS PLACED THE SRN ROW OF
COUNTIES IN A SVR WATCH INTO THE EVENING. THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL
LAST THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH
RANGE ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH BY AFTERNOON SETTING THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS OVER
THE FAR NE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS THERE IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. WITH DRY
SOUNDINGS AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURE RANGES
GREATER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH MAXES A BIT WARMER AND MINS A BIT
COOLER. MADE SOME TWEAKS IN THAT DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS STILL AFFECTING OUR EASTERNMOST TERMINALS KLAN AND KJXN WILL
MOVE OUT BY MID EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP THAT MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS
TO DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN STAY PRIMARILY MVFR THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CONTINUED WITH THE SCA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY BUT REMAIN JUST BELOW GALES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY GIVEN QPF OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...ANY LOCALLY PERSISTENT CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO SMALL STREAM
AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES. PER NCRFC ENSEMBLE QPF RIVER
SCENARIOS...SOME OF THE SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MI MAY APPROACH BANKFULL IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACHIEVE THE MAX
EXPECTED /95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE INTERVAL/ QPF THRESHOLD.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...93










000
FXUS63 KGRR 202242
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
642 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT TRIGGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE CLEARING DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY. AS
SKIES CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF US-10.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED TO REFLECT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLATION.
ALSO CLEANED UP PCPN GRIDS AND REFLECT LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
EVENING. STILL LOOKING AT PCPN MOVING BACK IN AFTER 06Z WITH THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

RADAR TRENDS SHOW STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA.
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED A BIT WITH LI/S NEAR -2C. HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE. THAT CINH
DECREASES TOWARD THE FAR SRN CWA. IF WE`RE GOING TO SEE SVR STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE OVER THE FAR SRN CWA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
THE GREATEST SHEAR IS...NEAR 50 KTS. MID LEVEL JET MOVING IN WILL
ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. SPC HAS PLACED THE SRN ROW OF
COUNTIES IN A SVR WATCH INTO THE EVENING. THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL
LAST THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH
RANGE ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH BY AFTERNOON SETTING THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS OVER
THE FAR NE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS THERE IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. WITH DRY
SOUNDINGS AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURE RANGES
GREATER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH MAXES A BIT WARMER AND MINS A BIT
COOLER. MADE SOME TWEAKS IN THAT DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 02Z TO 04Z WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE COULD BE
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS BUT
THE SPECIFICS IN TIMING AND LOCATION CANNOT BE PINNED DOWN UNTIL
THE STORMS ACTUALLY FORM. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING.

AFTER 04Z...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR THEN SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS BY 12Z SUNDAY AS LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK MOVES IN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CONTINUED WITH THE SCA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY BUT REMAIN JUST BELOW GALES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY GIVEN QPF OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...ANY LOCALLY PERSISTENT CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO SMALL STREAM
AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES. PER NCRFC ENSEMBLE QPF RIVER
SCENARIOS...SOME OF THE SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MI MAY APPROACH BANKFULL IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACHIEVE THE MAX
EXPECTED /95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE INTERVAL/ QPF THRESHOLD.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...93








000
FXUS63 KGRR 202242
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
642 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT TRIGGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE CLEARING DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY. AS
SKIES CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF US-10.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED TO REFLECT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLATION.
ALSO CLEANED UP PCPN GRIDS AND REFLECT LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
EVENING. STILL LOOKING AT PCPN MOVING BACK IN AFTER 06Z WITH THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

RADAR TRENDS SHOW STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA.
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED A BIT WITH LI/S NEAR -2C. HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE. THAT CINH
DECREASES TOWARD THE FAR SRN CWA. IF WE`RE GOING TO SEE SVR STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE OVER THE FAR SRN CWA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
THE GREATEST SHEAR IS...NEAR 50 KTS. MID LEVEL JET MOVING IN WILL
ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. SPC HAS PLACED THE SRN ROW OF
COUNTIES IN A SVR WATCH INTO THE EVENING. THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL
LAST THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH
RANGE ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH BY AFTERNOON SETTING THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS OVER
THE FAR NE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS THERE IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. WITH DRY
SOUNDINGS AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURE RANGES
GREATER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH MAXES A BIT WARMER AND MINS A BIT
COOLER. MADE SOME TWEAKS IN THAT DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 02Z TO 04Z WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE COULD BE
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS BUT
THE SPECIFICS IN TIMING AND LOCATION CANNOT BE PINNED DOWN UNTIL
THE STORMS ACTUALLY FORM. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING.

AFTER 04Z...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR THEN SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS BY 12Z SUNDAY AS LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK MOVES IN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CONTINUED WITH THE SCA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY BUT REMAIN JUST BELOW GALES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY GIVEN QPF OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...ANY LOCALLY PERSISTENT CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO SMALL STREAM
AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES. PER NCRFC ENSEMBLE QPF RIVER
SCENARIOS...SOME OF THE SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MI MAY APPROACH BANKFULL IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACHIEVE THE MAX
EXPECTED /95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE INTERVAL/ QPF THRESHOLD.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...93







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