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000
FXUS63 KGRR 271200
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
700 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 AND ONE TO THREE
INCHES WEST OF US-131. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
LINGER WEST OF US-131 THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
TWO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ANTICIPATED MAINLY FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MI WILL RESULT
IN DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS
NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 WILL ONLY RECEIVE UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW
TODAY AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF
US-131. ONLY MINOR TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WEST OF
US-131 AND MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
WEST OF US-131 BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CAUSES PCPN TO END
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER
AN INCH SOUTH OF I-96.

DRY WX WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF MILD AS LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LIQUID PRECIP
SUNDAY AS CLOUD TOPS ARE ONLY AROUND 4000 FEET AGL. SOME LIFT IS
NOTED IN THE STRATUS WHICH WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE.

THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
ABLE TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
EVENING...THEN DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY. INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH
AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN LATER IN THE DAY AND THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.

WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING AREAS OF IFR ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR AND MVFR ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WE WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
MID MORNING TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THERE ARE STILL FOUR RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. THOSE RIVERS
WILL CREST TODAY BEFORE RIVER LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL AS ANY LIGHT
PCPN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. ANY PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 270827
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 AND ONE TO THREE
INCHES WEST OF US-131. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
LINGER WEST OF US-131 THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
TWO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ANTICIPATED MAINLY FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MI WILL RESULT
IN DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS
NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 WILL ONLY RECEIVE UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW
TODAY AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF
US-131. ONLY MINOR TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WEST OF
US-131 AND MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
WEST OF US-131 BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CAUSES PCPN TO END
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER
AN INCH SOUTH OF I-96.

DRY WX WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF MILD AS LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LIQUID PRECIP
SUNDAY AS CLOUD TOPS ARE ONLY AROUND 4000 FEET AGL. SOME LIFT IS
NOTED IN THE STRATUS WHICH WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE.

THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
ABLE TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
EVENING...THEN DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY. INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH
AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN LATER IN THE DAY AND THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.

WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAF SITES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE A RISK FOR
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW
BANDS TO MIGRATE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE OR EVEN PUSH OFFSHORE.
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A TREND TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSE TO THE IMPACT SNOW BANDS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WE WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
MID MORNING TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THERE ARE STILL FOUR RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. THOSE RIVERS
WILL CREST TODAY BEFORE RIVER LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL AS ANY LIGHT
PCPN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. ANY PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS









000
FXUS63 KGRR 270827
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 AND ONE TO THREE
INCHES WEST OF US-131. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
LINGER WEST OF US-131 THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
TWO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ANTICIPATED MAINLY FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MI WILL RESULT
IN DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS
NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 WILL ONLY RECEIVE UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW
TODAY AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF
US-131. ONLY MINOR TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WEST OF
US-131 AND MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
WEST OF US-131 BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CAUSES PCPN TO END
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER
AN INCH SOUTH OF I-96.

DRY WX WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF MILD AS LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LIQUID PRECIP
SUNDAY AS CLOUD TOPS ARE ONLY AROUND 4000 FEET AGL. SOME LIFT IS
NOTED IN THE STRATUS WHICH WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE.

THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
ABLE TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
EVENING...THEN DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY. INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH
AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN LATER IN THE DAY AND THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.

WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAF SITES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE A RISK FOR
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW
BANDS TO MIGRATE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE OR EVEN PUSH OFFSHORE.
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A TREND TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSE TO THE IMPACT SNOW BANDS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WE WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
MID MORNING TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THERE ARE STILL FOUR RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. THOSE RIVERS
WILL CREST TODAY BEFORE RIVER LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL AS ANY LIGHT
PCPN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. ANY PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 270449
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ENTIRE LAKESHORE WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN
MAINLY SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN / WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
HOLLAND BUT UNLIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY TRAVEL LOOKS OKAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS.

COLD AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH FLURRIES LIKELY AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE
AT THIS TIME WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR COMBO OF LAKE-EFFECT AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT OPTED OUT FOR NOW. OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
WITH MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
(1 TO 3 INCHES) SOUTHWEST ALLEGAN COUNTY...VAN BUREN COUNTY AND
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. JUST DONT THINK THE SNOW
INTENSITY OR TIME DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE ENOUGH
IMPACT WISE...STILL THERE WILL ISOLATED SPOTS WITH SLICK ROADS AND
BRIEFLY POOR VISIBILITY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH SFC COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INITIATE THE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS THURSDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ANTICYCLONIC BY EVENING AND AS A RESULT MOISTURE / LIFT ONLY
BRIEFLY GET TO 10 KFT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING BACK
TOWARDS 5KFT BY EVENING. ALSO WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM WNW EARLY TO NNW BY EVENING WITH SNOW BANDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY BECOMING MAINLY SHORE
PARALLEL BY EVENING.

FRIDAY/S OVERRUNING EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT. GOOD
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF H85 FRONTAL INTERSECTION. GFS/ECMWF/FIM BLEND WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHEST AMOUNTS (2 TO 3 INCH) RANGE WOULD BE NORTH OF
I-96. MOST OF THE DEEPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
FRIDAY EVENING AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE/LL SEE TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.

WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AS A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ZONAL FLOW USUALLY MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WE/LL
SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND. A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF STATES SATURDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED THOUGH SO CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 BUT CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 40. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL HANG ON A BIT
LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAF SITES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE A RISK FOR
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW
BANDS TO MIGRATE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE OR EVEN PUSH OFFSHORE.
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A TREND TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSE TO THE IMPACT SNOW BANDS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY WITH
NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. GUST TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY
FOR THURSDAY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGH CHOP.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FIRST AND FOREMOST...RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN TIME.
THE ADVISORIES THAT REMAIN SHOULD ONLY REACH LOW END CRITERIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY REAL PROBLEMS.

THE SECOND ITEM TO NOTE IS THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THESE EVENTS
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
TO CHANGE SOME OF THE LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR LUDINGTON...BALDWIN AND REED
CITY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONCERN. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN
BANK RISES NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...COBB








000
FXUS63 KGRR 270449
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ENTIRE LAKESHORE WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN
MAINLY SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN / WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
HOLLAND BUT UNLIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY TRAVEL LOOKS OKAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS.

COLD AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH FLURRIES LIKELY AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE
AT THIS TIME WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR COMBO OF LAKE-EFFECT AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT OPTED OUT FOR NOW. OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
WITH MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
(1 TO 3 INCHES) SOUTHWEST ALLEGAN COUNTY...VAN BUREN COUNTY AND
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. JUST DONT THINK THE SNOW
INTENSITY OR TIME DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE ENOUGH
IMPACT WISE...STILL THERE WILL ISOLATED SPOTS WITH SLICK ROADS AND
BRIEFLY POOR VISIBILITY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH SFC COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INITIATE THE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS THURSDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ANTICYCLONIC BY EVENING AND AS A RESULT MOISTURE / LIFT ONLY
BRIEFLY GET TO 10 KFT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING BACK
TOWARDS 5KFT BY EVENING. ALSO WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM WNW EARLY TO NNW BY EVENING WITH SNOW BANDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY BECOMING MAINLY SHORE
PARALLEL BY EVENING.

FRIDAY/S OVERRUNING EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT. GOOD
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF H85 FRONTAL INTERSECTION. GFS/ECMWF/FIM BLEND WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHEST AMOUNTS (2 TO 3 INCH) RANGE WOULD BE NORTH OF
I-96. MOST OF THE DEEPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
FRIDAY EVENING AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE/LL SEE TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.

WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AS A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ZONAL FLOW USUALLY MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WE/LL
SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND. A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF STATES SATURDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED THOUGH SO CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 BUT CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 40. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL HANG ON A BIT
LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAF SITES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE A RISK FOR
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW
BANDS TO MIGRATE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE OR EVEN PUSH OFFSHORE.
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A TREND TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSE TO THE IMPACT SNOW BANDS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY WITH
NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. GUST TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY
FOR THURSDAY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGH CHOP.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FIRST AND FOREMOST...RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN TIME.
THE ADVISORIES THAT REMAIN SHOULD ONLY REACH LOW END CRITERIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY REAL PROBLEMS.

THE SECOND ITEM TO NOTE IS THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THESE EVENTS
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
TO CHANGE SOME OF THE LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR LUDINGTON...BALDWIN AND REED
CITY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONCERN. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN
BANK RISES NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...COBB







000
FXUS63 KGRR 270449
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ENTIRE LAKESHORE WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN
MAINLY SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN / WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
HOLLAND BUT UNLIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY TRAVEL LOOKS OKAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS.

COLD AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH FLURRIES LIKELY AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE
AT THIS TIME WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR COMBO OF LAKE-EFFECT AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT OPTED OUT FOR NOW. OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
WITH MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
(1 TO 3 INCHES) SOUTHWEST ALLEGAN COUNTY...VAN BUREN COUNTY AND
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. JUST DONT THINK THE SNOW
INTENSITY OR TIME DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE ENOUGH
IMPACT WISE...STILL THERE WILL ISOLATED SPOTS WITH SLICK ROADS AND
BRIEFLY POOR VISIBILITY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH SFC COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INITIATE THE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS THURSDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ANTICYCLONIC BY EVENING AND AS A RESULT MOISTURE / LIFT ONLY
BRIEFLY GET TO 10 KFT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING BACK
TOWARDS 5KFT BY EVENING. ALSO WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM WNW EARLY TO NNW BY EVENING WITH SNOW BANDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY BECOMING MAINLY SHORE
PARALLEL BY EVENING.

FRIDAY/S OVERRUNING EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT. GOOD
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF H85 FRONTAL INTERSECTION. GFS/ECMWF/FIM BLEND WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHEST AMOUNTS (2 TO 3 INCH) RANGE WOULD BE NORTH OF
I-96. MOST OF THE DEEPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
FRIDAY EVENING AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE/LL SEE TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.

WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AS A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ZONAL FLOW USUALLY MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WE/LL
SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND. A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF STATES SATURDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED THOUGH SO CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 BUT CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 40. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL HANG ON A BIT
LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAF SITES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE A RISK FOR
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW
BANDS TO MIGRATE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE OR EVEN PUSH OFFSHORE.
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A TREND TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSE TO THE IMPACT SNOW BANDS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY WITH
NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. GUST TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY
FOR THURSDAY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGH CHOP.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FIRST AND FOREMOST...RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN TIME.
THE ADVISORIES THAT REMAIN SHOULD ONLY REACH LOW END CRITERIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY REAL PROBLEMS.

THE SECOND ITEM TO NOTE IS THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THESE EVENTS
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
TO CHANGE SOME OF THE LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR LUDINGTON...BALDWIN AND REED
CITY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONCERN. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN
BANK RISES NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...COBB







000
FXUS63 KGRR 270449
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ENTIRE LAKESHORE WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN
MAINLY SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN / WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
HOLLAND BUT UNLIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY TRAVEL LOOKS OKAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS.

COLD AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH FLURRIES LIKELY AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE
AT THIS TIME WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR COMBO OF LAKE-EFFECT AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT OPTED OUT FOR NOW. OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
WITH MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
(1 TO 3 INCHES) SOUTHWEST ALLEGAN COUNTY...VAN BUREN COUNTY AND
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. JUST DONT THINK THE SNOW
INTENSITY OR TIME DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE ENOUGH
IMPACT WISE...STILL THERE WILL ISOLATED SPOTS WITH SLICK ROADS AND
BRIEFLY POOR VISIBILITY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH SFC COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INITIATE THE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS THURSDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ANTICYCLONIC BY EVENING AND AS A RESULT MOISTURE / LIFT ONLY
BRIEFLY GET TO 10 KFT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING BACK
TOWARDS 5KFT BY EVENING. ALSO WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM WNW EARLY TO NNW BY EVENING WITH SNOW BANDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY BECOMING MAINLY SHORE
PARALLEL BY EVENING.

FRIDAY/S OVERRUNING EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT. GOOD
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF H85 FRONTAL INTERSECTION. GFS/ECMWF/FIM BLEND WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHEST AMOUNTS (2 TO 3 INCH) RANGE WOULD BE NORTH OF
I-96. MOST OF THE DEEPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
FRIDAY EVENING AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE/LL SEE TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.

WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AS A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ZONAL FLOW USUALLY MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WE/LL
SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND. A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF STATES SATURDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED THOUGH SO CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 BUT CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 40. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL HANG ON A BIT
LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAF SITES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE A RISK FOR
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW
BANDS TO MIGRATE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE OR EVEN PUSH OFFSHORE.
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A TREND TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KAZO WILL BE CLOSE TO THE IMPACT SNOW BANDS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY WITH
NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. GUST TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY
FOR THURSDAY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGH CHOP.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FIRST AND FOREMOST...RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN TIME.
THE ADVISORIES THAT REMAIN SHOULD ONLY REACH LOW END CRITERIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY REAL PROBLEMS.

THE SECOND ITEM TO NOTE IS THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THESE EVENTS
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
TO CHANGE SOME OF THE LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR LUDINGTON...BALDWIN AND REED
CITY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONCERN. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN
BANK RISES NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...COBB








000
FXUS63 KGRR 262340
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
640 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ENTIRE LAKESHORE WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN
MAINLY SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN / WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
HOLLAND BUT UNLIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY TRAVEL LOOKS OKAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS.

COLD AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH FLURRIES LIKELY AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE
AT THIS TIME WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR COMBO OF LAKE-EFFECT AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT OPTED OUT FOR NOW. OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
WITH MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
(1 TO 3 INCHES) SOUTHWEST ALLEGAN COUNTY...VAN BUREN COUNTY AND
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. JUST DONT THINK THE SNOW
INTENSITY OR TIME DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE ENOUGH
IMPACT WISE...STILL THERE WILL ISOLATED SPOTS WITH SLICK ROADS AND
BRIEFLY POOR VISIBILITY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH SFC COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INITIATE THE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS THURSDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ANTICYCLONIC BY EVENING AND AS A RESULT MOISTURE / LIFT ONLY
BRIEFLY GET TO 10 KFT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING BACK
TOWARDS 5KFT BY EVENING. ALSO WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM WNW EARLY TO NNW BY EVENING WITH SNOW BANDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY BECOMING MAINLY SHORE
PARALLEL BY EVENING.

FRIDAY/S OVERRUNING EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT. GOOD
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF H85 FRONTAL INTERSECTION. GFS/ECMWF/FIM BLEND WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHEST AMOUNTS (2 TO 3 INCH) RANGE WOULD BE NORTH OF
I-96. MOST OF THE DEEPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
FRIDAY EVENING AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE/LL SEE TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.

WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AS A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ZONAL FLOW USUALLY MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WE/LL
SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND. A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF STATES SATURDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED THOUGH SO CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 BUT CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 40. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL HANG ON A BIT
LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. HOWEVER LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAF SITES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE A RISK FOR
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW
BANDS TO MIGRATE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE OR EVEN PUSH OFFSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY WITH
NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. GUST TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY
FOR THURSDAY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGH CHOP.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FIRST AND FOREMOST...RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN TIME.
THE ADVISORIES THAT REMAIN SHOULD ONLY REACH LOW END CRITERIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY REAL PROBLEMS.

THE SECOND ITEM TO NOTE IS THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THESE EVENTS
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
TO CHANGE SOME OF THE LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR LUDINGTON...BALDWIN AND REED
CITY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONCERN. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN
BANK RISES NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...COBB







000
FXUS63 KGRR 262340
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
640 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ENTIRE LAKESHORE WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN
MAINLY SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN / WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
HOLLAND BUT UNLIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY TRAVEL LOOKS OKAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS.

COLD AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH FLURRIES LIKELY AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE
AT THIS TIME WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR COMBO OF LAKE-EFFECT AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT OPTED OUT FOR NOW. OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
WITH MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
(1 TO 3 INCHES) SOUTHWEST ALLEGAN COUNTY...VAN BUREN COUNTY AND
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. JUST DONT THINK THE SNOW
INTENSITY OR TIME DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE ENOUGH
IMPACT WISE...STILL THERE WILL ISOLATED SPOTS WITH SLICK ROADS AND
BRIEFLY POOR VISIBILITY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH SFC COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INITIATE THE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS THURSDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ANTICYCLONIC BY EVENING AND AS A RESULT MOISTURE / LIFT ONLY
BRIEFLY GET TO 10 KFT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING BACK
TOWARDS 5KFT BY EVENING. ALSO WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM WNW EARLY TO NNW BY EVENING WITH SNOW BANDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY BECOMING MAINLY SHORE
PARALLEL BY EVENING.

FRIDAY/S OVERRUNING EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT. GOOD
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF H85 FRONTAL INTERSECTION. GFS/ECMWF/FIM BLEND WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHEST AMOUNTS (2 TO 3 INCH) RANGE WOULD BE NORTH OF
I-96. MOST OF THE DEEPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
FRIDAY EVENING AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE/LL SEE TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.

WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AS A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ZONAL FLOW USUALLY MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WE/LL
SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND. A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF STATES SATURDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED THOUGH SO CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 BUT CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 40. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL HANG ON A BIT
LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING TO PREVAIL. HOWEVER LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAF SITES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE A RISK FOR
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW
BANDS TO MIGRATE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE OR EVEN PUSH OFFSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY WITH
NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. GUST TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY
FOR THURSDAY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGH CHOP.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FIRST AND FOREMOST...RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN TIME.
THE ADVISORIES THAT REMAIN SHOULD ONLY REACH LOW END CRITERIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY REAL PROBLEMS.

THE SECOND ITEM TO NOTE IS THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THESE EVENTS
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
TO CHANGE SOME OF THE LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR LUDINGTON...BALDWIN AND REED
CITY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONCERN. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN
BANK RISES NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...COBB








000
FXUS63 KGRR 262013
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
313 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE THANKGIVING
HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ENTIRE LAKESHORE WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN
MAINLY SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN / WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
HOLLAND BUT UNLIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY TRAVEL LOOKS OKAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS.

COLD AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH FLURRIES LIKELY AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE
AT THIS TIME WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR COMBO OF LAKE-EFFECT AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT OPTED OUT FOR NOW. OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
WITH MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
(1 TO 3 INCHES) SOUTWEST ALLEGAN COUNTY...VAN BUREN COUNTY AND
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. JUST DONT THINK THE SNOW
INTENSITY OR TIME DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE ENOUGH
IMPACT WISE...STILL THERE WILL ISOLATED SPOTS WITH SLICK ROADS AND
BRIEFLY POOR VISIBILITY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH SFC COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INITIATE THE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS THURSDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ANTICYCLONIC BY EVENING AND AS A RESULT MOISTURE / LIFT ONLY
BRIEFLY GET TO 10 KFT THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING BACK
TOWARDS 5KFT BY EVENING. ALSO WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM WNW EARLY TO NNW BY EVENING WITH SNOW BANDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY BECOMING MAINLY SHORE
PARALLEL BY EVENING.

FRIDAY/S OVERRUNING EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT. GOOD
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF H85 FRONTAL INTERSECTION. GFS/ECMWF/FIM BLEND WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHEST AMOUNTS (2 TO 3 INCH) RANGE WOULD BE NORTH OF
I-96. MOST OF THE DEEPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
FRIDAY EVENING AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE/LL SEE TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.

WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AS A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ZONAL FLOW USUALLY MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WE/LL
SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND. A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF STATES SATURDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED THOUGH SO CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 BUT CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 40. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL HANG ON A BIT
LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE AT KGRR/KMKG WHERE CIGS ARE JUST ABOVE 3K FT. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL ADVECT SOME DRIER AIR AND HIGHER CIGS IN THIS EVENING
BRIEFLY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WE SEE CIGS FALL AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP.

LOOK FOR WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS...TO MOVE FROM SELY THROUGH
NORTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY NWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014
STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY WITH
NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. GUST TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY
FOR THURSDAY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGH CHOP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FIRST AND FOREMOST...RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN TIME.
THE ADVISORIES THAT REMAIN SHOULD ONLY REACH LOW END CRITERIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY REAL PROBLEMS.

THE SECOND ITEM TO NOTE IS THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THESE EVENTS
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
TO CHANGE SOME OF THE LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR LUDINGTON...BALDWIN AND REED
CITY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONCERN. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN
BANK RISES NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...COBB







000
FXUS63 KGRR 261736
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1236 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE THANKGIVING
HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE NORTH OF WHITEHALL / WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY
MORNING...AND SOUTH OF GRAND HAVEN / WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BUT
UNLIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY TRAVEL LOOKS OKAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS.

COLD AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH FLURRIES LIKELY AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE
AT THIS TIME WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DRY WX WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD WITH
MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 30S. DRY
WX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NW BRINGS LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING VERY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM NEAR TO EAST OF US-131. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED MAINLY WEST OF
US-131 IN AN AREA OF DEEPER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND 1000-850
MB CONVERGENCE. HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THAT 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE THURSDAY ARE MOST PROBABLE NEAR TO NW OF A LINE FROM
KMKG TO KRQB... THOUGH MOST AMOUNTS SHOULD END UP IN THE 1-2 RATHER
THAN 1-3 INCH RANGE EVEN NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FOR
FRIDAY AND BRING SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW. SOME LARGE SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE DISCREPANCIES ARISE FOR FRIDAY WITH THE 00Z NAM SHOWING
VIRTUALLY ALL ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR FCST AREA.
HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS SUGGESTS ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA.

THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW FRIDAY. THEREFORE WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY THAT IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH FEATURES
LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL
BE FINE TUNED ACCORDINGLY AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW FAST
MOVING RIPPLES IN THE FLOW BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ALONG WITH SOME GENERALLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL AFTER THAT.

A BURST OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD EITHER END OR CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT RAIN BY SATURDAY. A SFC LOW
TRACKS WELL NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION.
MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OR NO POPS SEEMS
THE WAY TO GO. SINCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST
THEY WERE LEFT THERE. PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE LIQUID FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE A MIX IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY PRECIP SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
BE LIGHT WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END BY TUESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE AND SFC RIDGING ARE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE AT KGRR/KMKG WHERE CIGS ARE JUST ABOVE 3K FT. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL ADVECT SOME DRIER AIR AND HIGHER CIGS IN THIS EVENING
BRIEFLY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WE SEE CIGS FALL AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP.

LOOK FOR WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS...TO MOVE FROM SELY THROUGH
NORTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY NWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

RATHER MINIMAL WIND AND WAVE ACTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME NNW AND INCREASE THURSDAY
LEADING TO INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS THAT WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN AN SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FIRST AND FOREMOST...RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN TIME.
THE ADVISORIES THAT REMAIN SHOULD ONLY REACH LOW END CRITERIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY REAL PROBLEMS.

THE SECOND ITEM TO NOTE IS THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THESE EVENTS
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
TO CHANGE SOME OF THE LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR LUDINGTON...BALDWIN AND REED
CITY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONCERN. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN
BANK RISES NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 261708
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1208 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...SYNOPSIS AND HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE THANKGIVING
HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE NORTH OF WHITEHALL / WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY
MORNING...AND SOUTH OF GRAND HAVEN / WEST OF ROUTE 131 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BUT
UNLIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY TRAVEL LOOKS OKAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS.

COLD AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH FLURRIES LIKELY AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE
AT THIS TIME WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DRY WX WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD WITH
MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 30S. DRY
WX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NW BRINGS LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING VERY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM NEAR TO EAST OF US-131. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED MAINLY WEST OF
US-131 IN AN AREA OF DEEPER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND 1000-850
MB CONVERGENCE. HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THAT 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE THURSDAY ARE MOST PROBABLE NEAR TO NW OF A LINE FROM
KMKG TO KRQB... THOUGH MOST AMOUNTS SHOULD END UP IN THE 1-2 RATHER
THAN 1-3 INCH RANGE EVEN NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FOR
FRIDAY AND BRING SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW. SOME LARGE SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE DISCREPANCIES ARISE FOR FRIDAY WITH THE 00Z NAM SHOWING
VIRTUALLY ALL ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR FCST AREA.
HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS SUGGESTS ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA.

THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW FRIDAY. THEREFORE WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY THAT IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH FEATURES
LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL
BE FINE TUNED ACCORDINGLY AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW FAST
MOVING RIPPLES IN THE FLOW BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ALONG WITH SOME GENERALLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL AFTER THAT.

A BURST OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD EITHER END OR CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT RAIN BY SATURDAY. A SFC LOW
TRACKS WELL NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION.
MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OR NO POPS SEEMS
THE WAY TO GO. SINCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST
THEY WERE LEFT THERE. PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE LIQUID FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE A MIX IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY PRECIP SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
BE LIGHT WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END BY TUESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE AND SFC RIDGING ARE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

EXPECT CEILINGS AROUND 2000 TO 2500 FEET AGL WITH TOPS AROUND 4000
FEET TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. SOME SNOW WILL MOVE IN LATE
TONIGHT WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

RATHER MINIMAL WIND AND WAVE ACTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME NNW AND INCREASE THURSDAY
LEADING TO INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS THAT WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN AN SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FIRST AND FOREMOST...RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN TIME.
THE ADVISORIES THAT REMAIN SHOULD ONLY REACH LOW END CRITERIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY REAL PROBLEMS.

THE SECOND ITEM TO NOTE IS THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THESE EVENTS
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
TO CHANGE SOME OF THE LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR LUDINGTON...BALDWIN AND REED
CITY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONCERN. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN
BANK RISES NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 261639
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1139 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW VERY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR
TO EAST OF US-131 THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT BUT LOCATIONS
CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WILL SEE ONE TO AS MUCH AS
THREE INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING POTENTIAL
FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DRY WX WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD WITH
MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 30S. DRY
WX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NW BRINGS LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING VERY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM NEAR TO EAST OF US-131. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED MAINLY WEST OF
US-131 IN AN AREA OF DEEPER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND 1000-850
MB CONVERGENCE. HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THAT 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE THURSDAY ARE MOST PROBABLE NEAR TO NW OF A LINE FROM
KMKG TO KRQB... THOUGH MOST AMOUNTS SHOULD END UP IN THE 1-2 RATHER
THAN 1-3 INCH RANGE EVEN NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FOR
FRIDAY AND BRING SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW. SOME LARGE SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE DISCREPANCIES ARISE FOR FRIDAY WITH THE 00Z NAM SHOWING
VIRTUALLY ALL ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR FCST AREA.
HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS SUGGESTS ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA.

THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW FRIDAY. THEREFORE WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY THAT IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH FEATURES
LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL
BE FINE TUNED ACCORDINGLY AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW FAST
MOVING RIPPLES IN THE FLOW BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ALONG WITH SOME GENERALLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL AFTER THAT.

A BURST OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD EITHER END OR CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT RAIN BY SATURDAY. A SFC LOW
TRACKS WELL NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION.
MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OR NO POPS SEEMS
THE WAY TO GO. SINCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST
THEY WERE LEFT THERE. PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE LIQUID FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE A MIX IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY PRECIP SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
BE LIGHT WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END BY TUESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE AND SFC RIDGING ARE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

EXPECT CEILINGS AROUND 2000 TO 2500 FEET AGL WITH TOPS AROUND 4000
FEET TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. SOME SNOW WILL MOVE IN LATE
TONIGHT WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

RATHER MINIMAL WIND AND WAVE ACTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME NNW AND INCREASE THURSDAY
LEADING TO INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS THAT WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN AN SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FIRST AND FOREMOST...RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN TIME.
THE ADVISORIES THAT REMAIN SHOULD ONLY REACH LOW END CRITERIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY REAL PROBLEMS.

THE SECOND ITEM TO NOTE IS THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THESE EVENTS
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
TO CHANGE SOME OF THE LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR LUDINGTON...BALDWIN AND REED
CITY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONCERN. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN
BANK RISES NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...LAURENS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 261155
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
655 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW VERY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR
TO EAST OF US-131 THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT BUT LOCATIONS
CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WILL SEE ONE TO AS MUCH AS
THREE INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING POTENTIAL
FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DRY WX WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD WITH
MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 30S. DRY
WX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NW BRINGS LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING VERY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM NEAR TO EAST OF US-131. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED MAINLY WEST OF
US-131 IN AN AREA OF DEEPER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND 1000-850
MB CONVERGENCE. HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THAT 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE THURSDAY ARE MOST PROBABLE NEAR TO NW OF A LINE FROM
KMKG TO KRQB... THOUGH MOST AMOUNTS SHOULD END UP IN THE 1-2 RATHER
THAN 1-3 INCH RANGE EVEN NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FOR
FRIDAY AND BRING SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW. SOME LARGE SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE DISCREPANCIES ARISE FOR FRIDAY WITH THE 00Z NAM SHOWING
VIRTUALLY ALL ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR FCST AREA.
HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS SUGGESTS ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA.

THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW FRIDAY. THEREFORE WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY THAT IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH FEATURES
LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL
BE FINE TUNED ACCORDINGLY AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW FAST
MOVING RIPPLES IN THE FLOW BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ALONG WITH SOME GENERALLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL AFTER THAT.

A BURST OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD EITHER END OR CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT RAIN BY SATURDAY. A SFC LOW
TRACKS WELL NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION.
MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OR NO POPS SEEMS
THE WAY TO GO. SINCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST
THEY WERE LEFT THERE. PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE LIQUID FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE A MIX IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY PRECIP SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
BE LIGHT WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END BY TUESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE AND SFC RIDGING ARE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

EXPECT CEILINGS AROUND 2000 TO 2500 FEET AGL WITH TOPS AROUND 4000
FEET TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. SOME SNOW WILL MOVE IN LATE
TONIGHT WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

RATHER MINIMAL WIND AND WAVE ACTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME NNW AND INCREASE THURSDAY
LEADING TO INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS THAT WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN AN SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT. MANY LOCATIONS
HAVE REACHED THEIR PEAK BUT SOME RIVER LEVELS WILL NOT CREST UNTIL
TONIGHT. ANY PCPN TONIGHT THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW AND QUITE LIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO AFFECT ON
AREA RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 261155
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
655 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW VERY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR
TO EAST OF US-131 THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT BUT LOCATIONS
CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WILL SEE ONE TO AS MUCH AS
THREE INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING POTENTIAL
FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DRY WX WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD WITH
MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 30S. DRY
WX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NW BRINGS LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING VERY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM NEAR TO EAST OF US-131. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED MAINLY WEST OF
US-131 IN AN AREA OF DEEPER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND 1000-850
MB CONVERGENCE. HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THAT 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE THURSDAY ARE MOST PROBABLE NEAR TO NW OF A LINE FROM
KMKG TO KRQB... THOUGH MOST AMOUNTS SHOULD END UP IN THE 1-2 RATHER
THAN 1-3 INCH RANGE EVEN NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FOR
FRIDAY AND BRING SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW. SOME LARGE SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE DISCREPANCIES ARISE FOR FRIDAY WITH THE 00Z NAM SHOWING
VIRTUALLY ALL ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR FCST AREA.
HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS SUGGESTS ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA.

THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW FRIDAY. THEREFORE WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY THAT IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH FEATURES
LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL
BE FINE TUNED ACCORDINGLY AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW FAST
MOVING RIPPLES IN THE FLOW BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ALONG WITH SOME GENERALLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL AFTER THAT.

A BURST OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD EITHER END OR CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT RAIN BY SATURDAY. A SFC LOW
TRACKS WELL NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION.
MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OR NO POPS SEEMS
THE WAY TO GO. SINCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST
THEY WERE LEFT THERE. PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE LIQUID FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE A MIX IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY PRECIP SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
BE LIGHT WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END BY TUESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE AND SFC RIDGING ARE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

EXPECT CEILINGS AROUND 2000 TO 2500 FEET AGL WITH TOPS AROUND 4000
FEET TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. SOME SNOW WILL MOVE IN LATE
TONIGHT WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

RATHER MINIMAL WIND AND WAVE ACTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME NNW AND INCREASE THURSDAY
LEADING TO INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS THAT WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN AN SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT. MANY LOCATIONS
HAVE REACHED THEIR PEAK BUT SOME RIVER LEVELS WILL NOT CREST UNTIL
TONIGHT. ANY PCPN TONIGHT THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW AND QUITE LIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO AFFECT ON
AREA RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 260827
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW VERY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR
TO EAST OF US-131 THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT BUT LOCATIONS
CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WILL SEE ONE TO AS MUCH AS
THREE INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING POTENTIAL
FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DRY WX WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD WITH
MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 30S. DRY
WX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NW BRINGS LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING VERY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM NEAR TO EAST OF US-131. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED MAINLY WEST OF
US-131 IN AN AREA OF DEEPER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND 1000-850
MB CONVERGENCE. HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THAT 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE THURSDAY ARE MOST PROBABLE NEAR TO NW OF A LINE FROM
KMKG TO KRQB... THOUGH MOST AMOUNTS SHOULD END UP IN THE 1-2 RATHER
THAN 1-3 INCH RANGE EVEN NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FOR
FRIDAY AND BRING SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW. SOME LARGE SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE DISCREPANCIES ARISE FOR FRIDAY WITH THE 00Z NAM SHOWING
VIRTUALLY ALL ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR FCST AREA.
HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS SUGGESTS ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA.

THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW FRIDAY. THEREFORE WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY THAT IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH FEATURES
LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL
BE FINE TUNED ACCORDINGLY AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW FAST
MOVING RIPPLES IN THE FLOW BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ALONG WITH SOME GENERALLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL AFTER THAT.

A BURST OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD EITHER END OR CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT RAIN BY SATURDAY. A SFC LOW
TRACKS WELL NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION.
MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OR NO POPS SEEMS
THE WAY TO GO. SINCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST
THEY WERE LEFT THERE. PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE LIQUID FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE A MIX IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY PRECIP SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
BE LIGHT WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END BY TUESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE AND SFC RIDGING ARE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

CONDITIONS WILL NOT REALLY CHANGE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...AS WE ARE
EXPECTING VFR TO PERSIST. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE MOVING IN TOWARD
MKG AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...SO TRENDED CIGS DOWN AS
THAT OCCURS. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES DEVELOP AT MKG
AND GRR BY 12Z THURSDAY...JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

RATHER MINIMAL WIND AND WAVE ACTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME NNW AND INCREASE THURSDAY
LEADING TO INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS THAT WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN AN SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT. MANY LOCATIONS
HAVE REACHED THEIR PEAK BUT SOME RIVER LEVELS WILL NOT CREST UNTIL
TONIGHT. ANY PCPN TONIGHT THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW AND QUITE LIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO AFFECT ON
AREA RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS










000
FXUS63 KGRR 260827
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW VERY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR
TO EAST OF US-131 THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT BUT LOCATIONS
CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WILL SEE ONE TO AS MUCH AS
THREE INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING POTENTIAL
FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DRY WX WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD WITH
MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 30S. DRY
WX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NW BRINGS LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING VERY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM NEAR TO EAST OF US-131. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED MAINLY WEST OF
US-131 IN AN AREA OF DEEPER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND 1000-850
MB CONVERGENCE. HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THAT 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE THURSDAY ARE MOST PROBABLE NEAR TO NW OF A LINE FROM
KMKG TO KRQB... THOUGH MOST AMOUNTS SHOULD END UP IN THE 1-2 RATHER
THAN 1-3 INCH RANGE EVEN NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FOR
FRIDAY AND BRING SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW. SOME LARGE SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE DISCREPANCIES ARISE FOR FRIDAY WITH THE 00Z NAM SHOWING
VIRTUALLY ALL ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR FCST AREA.
HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS SUGGESTS ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA.

THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW FRIDAY. THEREFORE WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY THAT IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH FEATURES
LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL
BE FINE TUNED ACCORDINGLY AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW FAST
MOVING RIPPLES IN THE FLOW BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ALONG WITH SOME GENERALLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL AFTER THAT.

A BURST OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD EITHER END OR CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT RAIN BY SATURDAY. A SFC LOW
TRACKS WELL NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION.
MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OR NO POPS SEEMS
THE WAY TO GO. SINCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST
THEY WERE LEFT THERE. PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE LIQUID FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE A MIX IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY PRECIP SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
BE LIGHT WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END BY TUESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE AND SFC RIDGING ARE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

CONDITIONS WILL NOT REALLY CHANGE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...AS WE ARE
EXPECTING VFR TO PERSIST. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE MOVING IN TOWARD
MKG AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...SO TRENDED CIGS DOWN AS
THAT OCCURS. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES DEVELOP AT MKG
AND GRR BY 12Z THURSDAY...JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

RATHER MINIMAL WIND AND WAVE ACTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME NNW AND INCREASE THURSDAY
LEADING TO INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS THAT WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN AN SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT. MANY LOCATIONS
HAVE REACHED THEIR PEAK BUT SOME RIVER LEVELS WILL NOT CREST UNTIL
TONIGHT. ANY PCPN TONIGHT THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW AND QUITE LIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO AFFECT ON
AREA RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS











000
FXUS63 KGRR 260446
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1146 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN WINTER PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAINLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. THEN...A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW....AND SLEET IS EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH WE ONLY ADVERTISE ABOUT 3 INCH TOTALS NEAR
THE LAKESHORE DURING THIS PERIOD THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS
EVENT TO OVER-PERFORM GIVEN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THERE TO BE A DEEP SATURATED MIXED LAYER THROUGH THE
DGZ UP TO AROUND 10000 FT. THERE ARE TWO OFFSETTING FACTORS
HOWEVER. 1) FAIRLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING THAT
MAY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. 2) DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH NON-LAMINAR FLOW DURING DAYTIME HEATING THAT
WILL LIKELY PREVENT PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS FROM OCCURRING AND
CONCENTRATING SNOWFALL.

NONETHELESS...BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES AND RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE
AND COULD STILL IMPACT THANKSGIVING TRAVEL. SNOW SHOULD SHUT OFF
RATHER QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC
WITH A SHARP SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

WIDE TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM. A
GENERAL ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEK AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN
PRODUCING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.

FRIDAY WILL START OFF WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL AND WE MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES NEWD.
SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN.
SATURDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. A CLIPPER IS THEN PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN SUNDAY. THIS
MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OR MIXED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BUT MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA NEAR THE LOW. COLDER TEMPS ARE
THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR MOVES IN
TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. ANOTHER SHOT OF WARMER AIR
TUESDAY MAY RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

CONDITIONS WILL NOT REALLY CHANGE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...AS WE ARE
EXPECTING VFR TO PERSIST. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE MOVING IN TOWARD
MKG AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...SO TRENDED CIGS DOWN AS
THAT OCCURS. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES DEVELOP AT MKG
AND GRR BY 12Z THURSDAY...JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST LOCAL RUN OF THE GLERL WAVE MODEL SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TIMING THEREFORE STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR A LATE EVENING
CANCELLATION/EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON AREA RIVERS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MANY LOCATION HAVE REACHED THEIR PEAK AND ARE BEGINNING
THEIR DECLINE...WHILE A FEW OTHERS WILL SEE CRESTS OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO. THERE ARE A FEW CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEK BUT IT MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND MAINLY
IN THE LIGHTER VARIETY. PRECIPITATION IS ALSO SPREAD OUT OVER
THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE
LITTLE...IF ANY...AFFECT ON AREA RIVERS. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AS WE GET LATER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...TJT








000
FXUS63 KGRR 260446
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1146 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN WINTER PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAINLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. THEN...A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW....AND SLEET IS EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH WE ONLY ADVERTISE ABOUT 3 INCH TOTALS NEAR
THE LAKESHORE DURING THIS PERIOD THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS
EVENT TO OVER-PERFORM GIVEN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THERE TO BE A DEEP SATURATED MIXED LAYER THROUGH THE
DGZ UP TO AROUND 10000 FT. THERE ARE TWO OFFSETTING FACTORS
HOWEVER. 1) FAIRLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING THAT
MAY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. 2) DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH NON-LAMINAR FLOW DURING DAYTIME HEATING THAT
WILL LIKELY PREVENT PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS FROM OCCURRING AND
CONCENTRATING SNOWFALL.

NONETHELESS...BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES AND RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE
AND COULD STILL IMPACT THANKSGIVING TRAVEL. SNOW SHOULD SHUT OFF
RATHER QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC
WITH A SHARP SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

WIDE TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM. A
GENERAL ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEK AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN
PRODUCING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.

FRIDAY WILL START OFF WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL AND WE MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES NEWD.
SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN.
SATURDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. A CLIPPER IS THEN PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN SUNDAY. THIS
MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OR MIXED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BUT MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA NEAR THE LOW. COLDER TEMPS ARE
THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR MOVES IN
TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. ANOTHER SHOT OF WARMER AIR
TUESDAY MAY RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

CONDITIONS WILL NOT REALLY CHANGE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...AS WE ARE
EXPECTING VFR TO PERSIST. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE MOVING IN TOWARD
MKG AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...SO TRENDED CIGS DOWN AS
THAT OCCURS. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES DEVELOP AT MKG
AND GRR BY 12Z THURSDAY...JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST LOCAL RUN OF THE GLERL WAVE MODEL SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TIMING THEREFORE STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR A LATE EVENING
CANCELLATION/EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON AREA RIVERS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MANY LOCATION HAVE REACHED THEIR PEAK AND ARE BEGINNING
THEIR DECLINE...WHILE A FEW OTHERS WILL SEE CRESTS OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO. THERE ARE A FEW CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEK BUT IT MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND MAINLY
IN THE LIGHTER VARIETY. PRECIPITATION IS ALSO SPREAD OUT OVER
THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE
LITTLE...IF ANY...AFFECT ON AREA RIVERS. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AS WE GET LATER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...TJT







000
FXUS63 KGRR 252334
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
634 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN WINTER PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAINLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. THEN...A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW....AND SLEET IS EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH WE ONLY ADVERTISE ABOUT 3 INCH TOTALS NEAR
THE LAKESHORE DURING THIS PERIOD THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS
EVENT TO OVER-PERFORM GIVEN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THERE TO BE A DEEP SATURATED MIXED LAYER THROUGH THE
DGZ UP TO AROUND 10000 FT. THERE ARE TWO OFFSETTING FACTORS
HOWEVER. 1) FAIRLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING THAT
MAY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. 2) DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH NON-LAMINAR FLOW DURING DAYTIME HEATING THAT
WILL LIKELY PREVENT PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS FROM OCCURRING AND
CONCENTRATING SNOWFALL.

NONETHELESS...BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES AND RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE
AND COULD STILL IMPACT THANKSGIVING TRAVEL. SNOW SHOULD SHUT OFF
RATHER QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC
WITH A SHARP SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

WIDE TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM. A
GENERAL ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEK AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN
PRODUCING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.

FRIDAY WILL START OFF WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL AND WE MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES NEWD.
SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN.
SATURDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. A CLIPPER IS THEN PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN SUNDAY. THIS
MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OR MIXED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BUT MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA NEAR THE LOW. COLDER TEMPS ARE
THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR MOVES IN
TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. ANOTHER SHOT OF WARMER AIR
TUESDAY MAY RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE STRATOCUMULUS ISN`T GOING ANYWHERE FOR THIS SET OF TAFS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN CIGS IS EXPECTED. WINDS MAY GO CALM BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z BEFORE A LIGHT SE WIND (OR JUST LIGHT AND VARIABLE) DEVELOPS.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST LOCAL RUN OF THE GLERL WAVE MODEL SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TIMING THEREFORE STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR A LATE EVENING
CANCELLATION/EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON AREA RIVERS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MANY LOCATION HAVE REACHED THEIR PEAK AND ARE BEGINNING
THEIR DECLINE...WHILE A FEW OTHERS WILL SEE CRESTS OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO. THERE ARE A FEW CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEK BUT IT MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND MAINLY
IN THE LIGHTER VARIETY. PRECIPITATION IS ALSO SPREAD OUT OVER
THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE
LITTLE...IF ANY...AFFECT ON AREA RIVERS. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AS WE GET LATER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...TJT







000
FXUS63 KGRR 252334
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
634 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN WINTER PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAINLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. THEN...A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW....AND SLEET IS EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH WE ONLY ADVERTISE ABOUT 3 INCH TOTALS NEAR
THE LAKESHORE DURING THIS PERIOD THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS
EVENT TO OVER-PERFORM GIVEN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THERE TO BE A DEEP SATURATED MIXED LAYER THROUGH THE
DGZ UP TO AROUND 10000 FT. THERE ARE TWO OFFSETTING FACTORS
HOWEVER. 1) FAIRLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING THAT
MAY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. 2) DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH NON-LAMINAR FLOW DURING DAYTIME HEATING THAT
WILL LIKELY PREVENT PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS FROM OCCURRING AND
CONCENTRATING SNOWFALL.

NONETHELESS...BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES AND RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE
AND COULD STILL IMPACT THANKSGIVING TRAVEL. SNOW SHOULD SHUT OFF
RATHER QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC
WITH A SHARP SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

WIDE TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM. A
GENERAL ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEK AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN
PRODUCING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.

FRIDAY WILL START OFF WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL AND WE MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES NEWD.
SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN.
SATURDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. A CLIPPER IS THEN PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN SUNDAY. THIS
MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OR MIXED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BUT MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA NEAR THE LOW. COLDER TEMPS ARE
THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR MOVES IN
TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. ANOTHER SHOT OF WARMER AIR
TUESDAY MAY RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE STRATOCUMULUS ISN`T GOING ANYWHERE FOR THIS SET OF TAFS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN CIGS IS EXPECTED. WINDS MAY GO CALM BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z BEFORE A LIGHT SE WIND (OR JUST LIGHT AND VARIABLE) DEVELOPS.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST LOCAL RUN OF THE GLERL WAVE MODEL SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TIMING THEREFORE STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR A LATE EVENING
CANCELLATION/EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON AREA RIVERS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MANY LOCATION HAVE REACHED THEIR PEAK AND ARE BEGINNING
THEIR DECLINE...WHILE A FEW OTHERS WILL SEE CRESTS OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO. THERE ARE A FEW CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEK BUT IT MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND MAINLY
IN THE LIGHTER VARIETY. PRECIPITATION IS ALSO SPREAD OUT OVER
THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE
LITTLE...IF ANY...AFFECT ON AREA RIVERS. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AS WE GET LATER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...TJT








000
FXUS63 KGRR 252020
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN WINTER PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAINLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. THEN...A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW....AND SLEET IS EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH WE ONLY ADVERTISE ABOUT 3 INCH TOTALS NEAR
THE LAKESHORE DURING THIS PERIOD THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS
EVENT TO OVER-PERFORM GIVEN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THERE TO BE A DEEP SATURATED MIXED LAYER THROUGH THE
DGZ UP TO AROUND 10000 FT. THERE ARE TWO OFFSETTING FACTORS
HOWEVER. 1) FAIRLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING THAT
MAY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. 2) DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH NON-LAMINAR FLOW DURING DAYTIME HEATING THAT
WILL LIKELY PREVENT PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS FROM OCCURRING AND
CONCENTRATING SNOWFALL.

NONETHELESS...BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES AND RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE
AND COULD STILL IMPACT THANKSGIVING TRAVEL. SNOW SHOULD SHUT OFF
RATHER QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC
WITH A SHARP SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

WIDE TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM. A
GENERAL ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEK AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN
PRODUCING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.

FRIDAY WILL START OFF WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL AND WE MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES NEWD.
SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN.
SATURDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. A CLIPPER IS THEN PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN SUNDAY. THIS
MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OR MIXED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BUT MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA NEAR THE LOW. COLDER TEMPS ARE
THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR MOVES IN
TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. ANOTHER SHOT OF WARMER AIR
TUESDAY MAY RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR SHOWS SHSN ACTIVITY DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING AT
KMKG/KGRR. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE PCPN END SOONER. CIGS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 1500-2500 FT RANGE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
RISING ABOVE 3 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST LOCAL RUN OF THE GLERL WAVE MODEL SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TIMING THEREFORE STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR A LATE EVENING
CANCELLATION/EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON AREA RIVERS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MANY LOCATION HAVE REACHED THEIR PEAK AND ARE BEGINNING
THEIR DECLINE...WHILE A FEW OTHERS WILL SEE CRESTS OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO. THERE ARE A FEW CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEK BUT IT MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND MAINLY
IN THE LIGHTER VARIETY. PRECIPITATION IS ALSO SPREAD OUT OVER
THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE
LITTLE...IF ANY...AFFECT ON AREA RIVERS. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AS WE GET LATER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...TJT








000
FXUS63 KGRR 252020
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN WINTER PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAINLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. THEN...A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW....AND SLEET IS EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH WE ONLY ADVERTISE ABOUT 3 INCH TOTALS NEAR
THE LAKESHORE DURING THIS PERIOD THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS
EVENT TO OVER-PERFORM GIVEN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THERE TO BE A DEEP SATURATED MIXED LAYER THROUGH THE
DGZ UP TO AROUND 10000 FT. THERE ARE TWO OFFSETTING FACTORS
HOWEVER. 1) FAIRLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING THAT
MAY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. 2) DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH NON-LAMINAR FLOW DURING DAYTIME HEATING THAT
WILL LIKELY PREVENT PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS FROM OCCURRING AND
CONCENTRATING SNOWFALL.

NONETHELESS...BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES AND RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE
AND COULD STILL IMPACT THANKSGIVING TRAVEL. SNOW SHOULD SHUT OFF
RATHER QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC
WITH A SHARP SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

WIDE TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM. A
GENERAL ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEK AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN
PRODUCING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.

FRIDAY WILL START OFF WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL AND WE MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES NEWD.
SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN.
SATURDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. A CLIPPER IS THEN PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN SUNDAY. THIS
MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OR MIXED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BUT MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA NEAR THE LOW. COLDER TEMPS ARE
THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR MOVES IN
TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. ANOTHER SHOT OF WARMER AIR
TUESDAY MAY RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR SHOWS SHSN ACTIVITY DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING AT
KMKG/KGRR. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE PCPN END SOONER. CIGS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 1500-2500 FT RANGE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
RISING ABOVE 3 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST LOCAL RUN OF THE GLERL WAVE MODEL SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TIMING THEREFORE STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR A LATE EVENING
CANCELLATION/EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON AREA RIVERS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MANY LOCATION HAVE REACHED THEIR PEAK AND ARE BEGINNING
THEIR DECLINE...WHILE A FEW OTHERS WILL SEE CRESTS OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO. THERE ARE A FEW CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEK BUT IT MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND MAINLY
IN THE LIGHTER VARIETY. PRECIPITATION IS ALSO SPREAD OUT OVER
THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE
LITTLE...IF ANY...AFFECT ON AREA RIVERS. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AS WE GET LATER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...TJT









000
FXUS63 KGRR 251955
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
255 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. SOME RESIDUAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...BEFORE IT WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THIS
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

WILL BE CAN CELLING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHORTLY. AREA OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL CROSSING THE GRAND RAPIDS VICINITY AT THIS TIME
HAS PRODUCED VISIBILITIES JUST UNDER A MILE AND LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN UPPER
POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS FEATURE WILL USHER THE ENHANCED SNOW AREA OUT OF
THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED AFTERWARDS. TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
WITH AIR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR FREEZING. ROAD SENSORS AT
LUDINGTON/REED CITY ALREADY INDICATE SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW FREEZING AND CLIMBING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS DETERMINING
THE FATE OF THE EXISTING HEADLINES THIS MORNING. WE WILL BE SHAVING
OFF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY WHERE SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT TO
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WE WILL BE HOLDING ON TO
THE ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE MORE FOR THE SNOW
IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE VS. AMOUNTS.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SNOW THIS
MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE DEFORMATION COMPONENT OF THE SNOW IS
DIMINISHING FOR OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WHAT IS LEFT IS A LITTLE
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIMITED LAKE EFFECT. WE DO EXPECT ANOTHER
LIMITED BURST OF SNOW THIS MORNING TOWARD 12Z AND THEN DIMINISHING
TOWARD NOON. THIS BURST WILL BE THE RESULT OF ONE MORE SHORT WAVE
ACROSS CENTRAL WI MOVING IN...ALONG WITH A SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTH TO ABOUT I-96 BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WE CONSIDERED CAN CELLING THE ENTIRE ADVISORY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
WE DECIDED TO KEEP IT WHERE THERE IS ENOUGH SNOW FALLING SINCE IT
WILL IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ALONG WITH ICY ROADS IN ADDITION TO
THE EXPECTED BRIEF BURST OF SNOW IN THE VICINITY OF RUSH HOUR. IT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING ONCE THE
EXPECTED BURST OF SNOW PASSES THROUGH.

WE EXPECT THAT WE WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FCST BY WED. WE WILL SEE
RIDGING BUILD IN BY WED...AND THE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS SW
OF THE AREA. THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW ACTUALLY BECOMES MORE SERLY AS
A SFC LOW MOVES BY TO OUR SW. WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME CLEARING DURING THE DAY ON WED BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
EVENTUALLY MOVE BACK IN LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER
SHORT WAVE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

LAKE EFFECT WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE NW
SECTION OF THE CWFA AS THE SFC LOW TO OUR SW MOVES AWAY AND THE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BECOMES SWRLY. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL
INITIALLY BE LIMITED...HOWEVER THEY WILL RISE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
THE SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY NW ON
THANKSGIVING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WNW FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME
RELATIVELY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LIKE 1 TO 3 OR 2 TO 4 INCHES
FOR THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS. INLAND AREAS COULD SEE A DUSTING OF
SNOW AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW FAST
MOVING RIPPLES IN THE FLOW BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ALONG WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE START TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY THEN COOLING BACK DOWN AGAIN BY MONDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS. A BURST OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION...SO I WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW. THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BUT IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
PRECIP IS CLEAR OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH IT IS COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHEAST AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE BLO 5 KFT...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR SHOWS SHSN ACTIVITY DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING AT
KMKG/KGRR. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE PCPN END SOONER. CIGS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 1500-2500 FT RANGE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
RISING ABOVE 3K FT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING MARINE OFFICES...WE WILL BE
CAN CELLING THE GALE WARNING A LITTLE EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE
REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN UNTIL 04Z THIS
EVENING. LATEST OBS ALONG THE COAST ALL HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE
CRITERIA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
TODAY...WITH WAVES LAGGING THE DROP IN WIND BY A FEW HOURS.

THE NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MARINE WILL BE THE DAY ON THU. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY TYPE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON AREA RIVERS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MANY LOCATION HAVE REACHED THEIR PEAK AND ARE BEGINNING
THEIR DECLINE...WHILE A FEW OTHERS WILL SEE CRESTS OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO. THERE ARE A FEW CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEK BUT IT MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND MAINLY
IN THE LIGHTER VARIETY. PRECIPITATION IS ALSO SPREAD OUT OVER
THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE
LITTLE...IF ANY...AFFECT ON AREA RIVERS. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AS WE GET LATER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ








000
FXUS63 KGRR 251955
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
255 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. SOME RESIDUAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...BEFORE IT WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THIS
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

WILL BE CAN CELLING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHORTLY. AREA OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL CROSSING THE GRAND RAPIDS VICINITY AT THIS TIME
HAS PRODUCED VISIBILITIES JUST UNDER A MILE AND LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN UPPER
POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS FEATURE WILL USHER THE ENHANCED SNOW AREA OUT OF
THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED AFTERWARDS. TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
WITH AIR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR FREEZING. ROAD SENSORS AT
LUDINGTON/REED CITY ALREADY INDICATE SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW FREEZING AND CLIMBING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS DETERMINING
THE FATE OF THE EXISTING HEADLINES THIS MORNING. WE WILL BE SHAVING
OFF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY WHERE SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT TO
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WE WILL BE HOLDING ON TO
THE ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE MORE FOR THE SNOW
IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE VS. AMOUNTS.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SNOW THIS
MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE DEFORMATION COMPONENT OF THE SNOW IS
DIMINISHING FOR OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WHAT IS LEFT IS A LITTLE
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIMITED LAKE EFFECT. WE DO EXPECT ANOTHER
LIMITED BURST OF SNOW THIS MORNING TOWARD 12Z AND THEN DIMINISHING
TOWARD NOON. THIS BURST WILL BE THE RESULT OF ONE MORE SHORT WAVE
ACROSS CENTRAL WI MOVING IN...ALONG WITH A SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTH TO ABOUT I-96 BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WE CONSIDERED CAN CELLING THE ENTIRE ADVISORY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
WE DECIDED TO KEEP IT WHERE THERE IS ENOUGH SNOW FALLING SINCE IT
WILL IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ALONG WITH ICY ROADS IN ADDITION TO
THE EXPECTED BRIEF BURST OF SNOW IN THE VICINITY OF RUSH HOUR. IT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING ONCE THE
EXPECTED BURST OF SNOW PASSES THROUGH.

WE EXPECT THAT WE WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FCST BY WED. WE WILL SEE
RIDGING BUILD IN BY WED...AND THE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS SW
OF THE AREA. THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW ACTUALLY BECOMES MORE SERLY AS
A SFC LOW MOVES BY TO OUR SW. WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME CLEARING DURING THE DAY ON WED BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
EVENTUALLY MOVE BACK IN LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER
SHORT WAVE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

LAKE EFFECT WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE NW
SECTION OF THE CWFA AS THE SFC LOW TO OUR SW MOVES AWAY AND THE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BECOMES SWRLY. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL
INITIALLY BE LIMITED...HOWEVER THEY WILL RISE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
THE SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY NW ON
THANKSGIVING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WNW FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME
RELATIVELY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LIKE 1 TO 3 OR 2 TO 4 INCHES
FOR THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS. INLAND AREAS COULD SEE A DUSTING OF
SNOW AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW FAST
MOVING RIPPLES IN THE FLOW BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ALONG WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE START TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY THEN COOLING BACK DOWN AGAIN BY MONDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS. A BURST OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION...SO I WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW. THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BUT IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
PRECIP IS CLEAR OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH IT IS COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHEAST AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE BLO 5 KFT...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR SHOWS SHSN ACTIVITY DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING AT
KMKG/KGRR. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE PCPN END SOONER. CIGS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 1500-2500 FT RANGE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
RISING ABOVE 3K FT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING MARINE OFFICES...WE WILL BE
CAN CELLING THE GALE WARNING A LITTLE EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE
REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN UNTIL 04Z THIS
EVENING. LATEST OBS ALONG THE COAST ALL HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE
CRITERIA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
TODAY...WITH WAVES LAGGING THE DROP IN WIND BY A FEW HOURS.

THE NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MARINE WILL BE THE DAY ON THU. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY TYPE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON AREA RIVERS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MANY LOCATION HAVE REACHED THEIR PEAK AND ARE BEGINNING
THEIR DECLINE...WHILE A FEW OTHERS WILL SEE CRESTS OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO. THERE ARE A FEW CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEK BUT IT MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND MAINLY
IN THE LIGHTER VARIETY. PRECIPITATION IS ALSO SPREAD OUT OVER
THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE
LITTLE...IF ANY...AFFECT ON AREA RIVERS. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AS WE GET LATER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 251746
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1246 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. SOME RESIDUAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...BEFORE IT WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THIS
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

WILL BE CAN CELLING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHORTLY. AREA OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL CROSSING THE GRAND RAPIDS VICINITY AT THIS TIME
HAS PRODUCED VISIBILITIES JUST UNDER A MILE AND LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN UPPER
POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS FEATURE WILL USHER THE ENHANCED SNOW AREA OUT OF
THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED AFTERWARDS. TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
WITH AIR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR FREEZING. ROAD SENSORS AT
LUDINGTON/REED CITY ALREADY INDICATE SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW FREEZING AND CLIMBING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS DETERMINING
THE FATE OF THE EXISTING HEADLINES THIS MORNING. WE WILL BE SHAVING
OFF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY WHERE SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT TO
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WE WILL BE HOLDING ON TO
THE ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE MORE FOR THE SNOW
IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE VS. AMOUNTS.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SNOW THIS
MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE DEFORMATION COMPONENT OF THE SNOW IS
DIMINISHING FOR OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WHAT IS LEFT IS A LITTLE
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIMITED LAKE EFFECT. WE DO EXPECT ANOTHER
LIMITED BURST OF SNOW THIS MORNING TOWARD 12Z AND THEN DIMINISHING
TOWARD NOON. THIS BURST WILL BE THE RESULT OF ONE MORE SHORT WAVE
ACROSS CENTRAL WI MOVING IN...ALONG WITH A SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTH TO ABOUT I-96 BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WE CONSIDERED CAN CELLING THE ENTIRE ADVISORY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
WE DECIDED TO KEEP IT WHERE THERE IS ENOUGH SNOW FALLING SINCE IT
WILL IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ALONG WITH ICY ROADS IN ADDITION TO
THE EXPECTED BRIEF BURST OF SNOW IN THE VICINITY OF RUSH HOUR. IT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING ONCE THE
EXPECTED BURST OF SNOW PASSES THROUGH.

WE EXPECT THAT WE WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FCST BY WED. WE WILL SEE
RIDGING BUILD IN BY WED...AND THE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS SW
OF THE AREA. THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW ACTUALLY BECOMES MORE SERLY AS
A SFC LOW MOVES BY TO OUR SW. WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME CLEARING DURING THE DAY ON WED BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
EVENTUALLY MOVE BACK IN LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER
SHORT WAVE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

LAKE EFFECT WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE NW
SECTION OF THE CWFA AS THE SFC LOW TO OUR SW MOVES AWAY AND THE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BECOMES SWRLY. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL
INITIALLY BE LIMITED...HOWEVER THEY WILL RISE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
THE SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY NW ON
THANKSGIVING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WNW FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME
RELATIVELY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LIKE 1 TO 3 OR 2 TO 4 INCHES
FOR THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS. INLAND AREAS COULD SEE A DUSTING OF
SNOW AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW FAST
MOVING RIPPLES IN THE FLOW BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ALONG WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE START TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY THEN COOLING BACK DOWN AGAIN BY MONDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS. A BURST OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION...SO I WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW. THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BUT IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
PRECIP IS CLEAR OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH IT IS COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHEAST AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE BLO 5 KFT...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR SHOWS SHSN ACTIVITY DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING AT
KMKG/KGRR. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE PCPN END SOONER. CIGS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 1500-2500 FT RANGE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
RISING ABOVE 3K FT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING MARINE OFFICES...WE WILL BE
CAN CELLING THE GALE WARNING A LITTLE EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE
REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN UNTIL 04Z THIS
EVENING. LATEST OBS ALONG THE COAST ALL HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE
CRITERIA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
TODAY...WITH WAVES LAGGING THE DROP IN WIND BY A FEW HOURS.

THE NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MARINE WILL BE THE DAY ON THU. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY TYPE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE RAIN AND MELTED SNOW FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FLOWS ON THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE 10 ADVISORIES IN EFFECT...AND NO WARNINGS. THE NEXT
FEW DAYS SHOULD ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO GRADUALLY STABILIZE WITH ONLY
LIMITED PCPN EXPECTED. WITH ANY PCPN BEING IN THE FORM OF SNOW THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...NO REAL RUNOFF IS EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 251746
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1246 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. SOME RESIDUAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...BEFORE IT WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THIS
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

WILL BE CAN CELLING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHORTLY. AREA OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL CROSSING THE GRAND RAPIDS VICINITY AT THIS TIME
HAS PRODUCED VISIBILITIES JUST UNDER A MILE AND LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN UPPER
POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS FEATURE WILL USHER THE ENHANCED SNOW AREA OUT OF
THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED AFTERWARDS. TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
WITH AIR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR FREEZING. ROAD SENSORS AT
LUDINGTON/REED CITY ALREADY INDICATE SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW FREEZING AND CLIMBING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS DETERMINING
THE FATE OF THE EXISTING HEADLINES THIS MORNING. WE WILL BE SHAVING
OFF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY WHERE SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT TO
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WE WILL BE HOLDING ON TO
THE ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE MORE FOR THE SNOW
IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE VS. AMOUNTS.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SNOW THIS
MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE DEFORMATION COMPONENT OF THE SNOW IS
DIMINISHING FOR OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WHAT IS LEFT IS A LITTLE
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIMITED LAKE EFFECT. WE DO EXPECT ANOTHER
LIMITED BURST OF SNOW THIS MORNING TOWARD 12Z AND THEN DIMINISHING
TOWARD NOON. THIS BURST WILL BE THE RESULT OF ONE MORE SHORT WAVE
ACROSS CENTRAL WI MOVING IN...ALONG WITH A SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTH TO ABOUT I-96 BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WE CONSIDERED CAN CELLING THE ENTIRE ADVISORY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
WE DECIDED TO KEEP IT WHERE THERE IS ENOUGH SNOW FALLING SINCE IT
WILL IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ALONG WITH ICY ROADS IN ADDITION TO
THE EXPECTED BRIEF BURST OF SNOW IN THE VICINITY OF RUSH HOUR. IT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING ONCE THE
EXPECTED BURST OF SNOW PASSES THROUGH.

WE EXPECT THAT WE WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FCST BY WED. WE WILL SEE
RIDGING BUILD IN BY WED...AND THE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS SW
OF THE AREA. THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW ACTUALLY BECOMES MORE SERLY AS
A SFC LOW MOVES BY TO OUR SW. WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME CLEARING DURING THE DAY ON WED BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
EVENTUALLY MOVE BACK IN LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER
SHORT WAVE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

LAKE EFFECT WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE NW
SECTION OF THE CWFA AS THE SFC LOW TO OUR SW MOVES AWAY AND THE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BECOMES SWRLY. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL
INITIALLY BE LIMITED...HOWEVER THEY WILL RISE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
THE SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY NW ON
THANKSGIVING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WNW FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME
RELATIVELY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LIKE 1 TO 3 OR 2 TO 4 INCHES
FOR THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS. INLAND AREAS COULD SEE A DUSTING OF
SNOW AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW FAST
MOVING RIPPLES IN THE FLOW BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ALONG WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE START TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY THEN COOLING BACK DOWN AGAIN BY MONDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS. A BURST OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION...SO I WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW. THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BUT IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
PRECIP IS CLEAR OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH IT IS COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHEAST AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE BLO 5 KFT...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR SHOWS SHSN ACTIVITY DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING AT
KMKG/KGRR. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE PCPN END SOONER. CIGS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 1500-2500 FT RANGE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
RISING ABOVE 3K FT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING MARINE OFFICES...WE WILL BE
CAN CELLING THE GALE WARNING A LITTLE EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE
REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN UNTIL 04Z THIS
EVENING. LATEST OBS ALONG THE COAST ALL HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE
CRITERIA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
TODAY...WITH WAVES LAGGING THE DROP IN WIND BY A FEW HOURS.

THE NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MARINE WILL BE THE DAY ON THU. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY TYPE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE RAIN AND MELTED SNOW FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FLOWS ON THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE 10 ADVISORIES IN EFFECT...AND NO WARNINGS. THE NEXT
FEW DAYS SHOULD ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO GRADUALLY STABILIZE WITH ONLY
LIMITED PCPN EXPECTED. WITH ANY PCPN BEING IN THE FORM OF SNOW THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...NO REAL RUNOFF IS EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ








000
FXUS63 KGRR 251556
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1056 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. SOME RESIDUAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...BEFORE IT WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THIS
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

WILL BE CAN CELLING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHORTLY. AREA OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL CROSSING THE GRAND RAPIDS VICINITY AT THIS TIME
HAS PRODUCED VISIBILITIES JUST UNDER A MILE AND LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN UPPER
POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS FEATURE WILL USHER THE ENHANCED SNOW AREA OUT OF
THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED AFTERWARDS. TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
WITH AIR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR FREEZING. ROAD SENSORS AT
LUDINGTON/REED CITY ALREADY INDICATE SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW FREEZING AND CLIMBING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS DETERMINING
THE FATE OF THE EXISTING HEADLINES THIS MORNING. WE WILL BE SHAVING
OFF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY WHERE SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT TO
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WE WILL BE HOLDING ON TO
THE ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE MORE FOR THE SNOW
IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE VS. AMOUNTS.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SNOW THIS
MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE DEFORMATION COMPONENT OF THE SNOW IS
DIMINISHING FOR OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WHAT IS LEFT IS A LITTLE
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIMITED LAKE EFFECT. WE DO EXPECT ANOTHER
LIMITED BURST OF SNOW THIS MORNING TOWARD 12Z AND THEN DIMINISHING
TOWARD NOON. THIS BURST WILL BE THE RESULT OF ONE MORE SHORT WAVE
ACROSS CENTRAL WI MOVING IN...ALONG WITH A SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTH TO ABOUT I-96 BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WE CONSIDERED CAN CELLING THE ENTIRE ADVISORY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
WE DECIDED TO KEEP IT WHERE THERE IS ENOUGH SNOW FALLING SINCE IT
WILL IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ALONG WITH ICY ROADS IN ADDITION TO
THE EXPECTED BRIEF BURST OF SNOW IN THE VICINITY OF RUSH HOUR. IT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING ONCE THE
EXPECTED BURST OF SNOW PASSES THROUGH.

WE EXPECT THAT WE WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FCST BY WED. WE WILL SEE
RIDGING BUILD IN BY WED...AND THE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS SW
OF THE AREA. THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW ACTUALLY BECOMES MORE SERLY AS
A SFC LOW MOVES BY TO OUR SW. WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME CLEARING DURING THE DAY ON WED BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
EVENTUALLY MOVE BACK IN LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER
SHORT WAVE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

LAKE EFFECT WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE NW
SECTION OF THE CWFA AS THE SFC LOW TO OUR SW MOVES AWAY AND THE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BECOMES SWRLY. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL
INITIALLY BE LIMITED...HOWEVER THEY WILL RISE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
THE SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY NW ON
THANKSGIVING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WNW FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME
RELATIVELY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LIKE 1 TO 3 OR 2 TO 4 INCHES
FOR THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS. INLAND AREAS COULD SEE A DUSTING OF
SNOW AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW FAST
MOVING RIPPLES IN THE FLOW BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ALONG WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE START TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY THEN COOLING BACK DOWN AGAIN BY MONDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS. A BURST OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION...SO I WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW. THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BUT IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
PRECIP IS CLEAR OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH IT IS COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHEAST AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE BLO 5 KFT...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 20
KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH 18Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING MARINE OFFICES...WE WILL BE
CAN CELLING THE GALE WARNING A LITTLE EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE
REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN UNTIL 04Z THIS
EVENING. LATEST OBS ALONG THE COAST ALL HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE
CRITERIA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
TODAY...WITH WAVES LAGGING THE DROP IN WIND BY A FEW HOURS.

THE NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MARINE WILL BE THE DAY ON THU. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY TYPE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE RAIN AND MELTED SNOW FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FLOWS ON THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE 10 ADVISORIES IN EFFECT...AND NO WARNINGS. THE NEXT
FEW DAYS SHOULD ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO GRADUALLY STABILIZE WITH ONLY
LIMITED PCPN EXPECTED. WITH ANY PCPN BEING IN THE FORM OF SNOW THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...NO REAL RUNOFF IS EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ037>039-043>045-050-051-056-057.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ








000
FXUS63 KGRR 251556
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1056 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. SOME RESIDUAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...BEFORE IT WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THIS
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

WILL BE CAN CELLING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHORTLY. AREA OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL CROSSING THE GRAND RAPIDS VICINITY AT THIS TIME
HAS PRODUCED VISIBILITIES JUST UNDER A MILE AND LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN UPPER
POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS FEATURE WILL USHER THE ENHANCED SNOW AREA OUT OF
THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED AFTERWARDS. TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
WITH AIR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR FREEZING. ROAD SENSORS AT
LUDINGTON/REED CITY ALREADY INDICATE SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW FREEZING AND CLIMBING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS DETERMINING
THE FATE OF THE EXISTING HEADLINES THIS MORNING. WE WILL BE SHAVING
OFF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY WHERE SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT TO
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WE WILL BE HOLDING ON TO
THE ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE MORE FOR THE SNOW
IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE VS. AMOUNTS.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SNOW THIS
MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE DEFORMATION COMPONENT OF THE SNOW IS
DIMINISHING FOR OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WHAT IS LEFT IS A LITTLE
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIMITED LAKE EFFECT. WE DO EXPECT ANOTHER
LIMITED BURST OF SNOW THIS MORNING TOWARD 12Z AND THEN DIMINISHING
TOWARD NOON. THIS BURST WILL BE THE RESULT OF ONE MORE SHORT WAVE
ACROSS CENTRAL WI MOVING IN...ALONG WITH A SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTH TO ABOUT I-96 BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WE CONSIDERED CAN CELLING THE ENTIRE ADVISORY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
WE DECIDED TO KEEP IT WHERE THERE IS ENOUGH SNOW FALLING SINCE IT
WILL IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ALONG WITH ICY ROADS IN ADDITION TO
THE EXPECTED BRIEF BURST OF SNOW IN THE VICINITY OF RUSH HOUR. IT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING ONCE THE
EXPECTED BURST OF SNOW PASSES THROUGH.

WE EXPECT THAT WE WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FCST BY WED. WE WILL SEE
RIDGING BUILD IN BY WED...AND THE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS SW
OF THE AREA. THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW ACTUALLY BECOMES MORE SERLY AS
A SFC LOW MOVES BY TO OUR SW. WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME CLEARING DURING THE DAY ON WED BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
EVENTUALLY MOVE BACK IN LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER
SHORT WAVE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

LAKE EFFECT WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE NW
SECTION OF THE CWFA AS THE SFC LOW TO OUR SW MOVES AWAY AND THE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BECOMES SWRLY. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL
INITIALLY BE LIMITED...HOWEVER THEY WILL RISE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
THE SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY NW ON
THANKSGIVING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WNW FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME
RELATIVELY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LIKE 1 TO 3 OR 2 TO 4 INCHES
FOR THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS. INLAND AREAS COULD SEE A DUSTING OF
SNOW AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW FAST
MOVING RIPPLES IN THE FLOW BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ALONG WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE START TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY THEN COOLING BACK DOWN AGAIN BY MONDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS. A BURST OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION...SO I WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW. THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BUT IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
PRECIP IS CLEAR OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH IT IS COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHEAST AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE BLO 5 KFT...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 20
KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH 18Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING MARINE OFFICES...WE WILL BE
CAN CELLING THE GALE WARNING A LITTLE EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE
REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN UNTIL 04Z THIS
EVENING. LATEST OBS ALONG THE COAST ALL HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE
CRITERIA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
TODAY...WITH WAVES LAGGING THE DROP IN WIND BY A FEW HOURS.

THE NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MARINE WILL BE THE DAY ON THU. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY TYPE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE RAIN AND MELTED SNOW FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FLOWS ON THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE 10 ADVISORIES IN EFFECT...AND NO WARNINGS. THE NEXT
FEW DAYS SHOULD ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO GRADUALLY STABILIZE WITH ONLY
LIMITED PCPN EXPECTED. WITH ANY PCPN BEING IN THE FORM OF SNOW THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...NO REAL RUNOFF IS EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ037>039-043>045-050-051-056-057.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 251124
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
624 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. SOME RESIDUAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...BEFORE IT WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THIS
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS DETERMINING
THE FATE OF THE EXISTING HEADLINES THIS MORNING. WE WILL BE SHAVING
OFF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY WHERE SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT TO
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WE WILL BE HOLDING ON TO
THE ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE MORE FOR THE SNOW
IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE VS. AMOUNTS.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SNOW THIS
MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE DEFORMATION COMPONENT OF THE SNOW IS
DIMINISHING FOR OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WHAT IS LEFT IS A LITTLE
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIMITED LAKE EFFECT. WE DO EXPECT ANOTHER
LIMITED BURST OF SNOW THIS MORNING TOWARD 12Z AND THEN DIMINISHING
TOWARD NOON. THIS BURST WILL BE THE RESULT OF ONE MORE SHORT WAVE
ACROSS CENTRAL WI MOVING IN...ALONG WITH A SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTH TO ABOUT I-96 BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WE CONSIDERED CANCELLING THE ENTIRE ADVISORY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
WE DECIDED TO KEEP IT WHERE THERE IS ENOUGH SNOW FALLING SINCE IT
WILL IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ALONG WITH ICY ROADS IN ADDITION TO
THE EXPECTED BRIEF BURST OF SNOW IN THE VICINITY OF RUSH HOUR. IT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING ONCE THE
EXPECTED BURST OF SNOW PASSES THROUGH.

WE EXPECT THAT WE WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FCST BY WED. WE WILL SEE
RIDGING BUILD IN BY WED...AND THE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS SW
OF THE AREA. THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW ACTUALLY BECOMES MORE SERLY AS
A SFC LOW MOVES BY TO OUR SW. WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME CLEARING DURING THE DAY ON WED BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
EVENTUALLY MOVE BACK IN LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER
SHORT WAVE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

LAKE EFFECT WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE NW
SECTION OF THE CWFA AS THE SFC LOW TO OUR SW MOVES AWAY AND THE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BECOMES SWRLY. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL
INITIALLY BE LIMITED...HOWEVER THEY WILL RISE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
THE SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY NW ON
THANKSGIVING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WNW FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME
RELATIVELY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LIKE 1 TO 3 OR 2 TO 4 INCHES
FOR THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS. INLAND AREAS COULD SEE A DUSTING OF
SNOW AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW FAST
MOVING RIPPLES IN THE FLOW BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ALONG WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE START TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY THEN COOLING BACK DOWN AGAIN BY MONDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS. A BURST OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION...SO I WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW. THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BUT IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
PRECIP IS CLEAR OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH IT IS COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHEAST AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE BLO 5 KFT...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 20
KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING MARINE OFFICES...WE WILL BE
CANCELLING THE GALE WARNING A LITTLE EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE
REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN UNTIL 04Z THIS
EVENING. LATEST OBS ALONG THE COAST ALL HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE
CRITERIA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
TODAY...WITH WAVES LAGGING THE DROP IN WIND BY A FEW HOURS.

THE NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MARINE WILL BE THE DAY ON THU. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY TYPE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE RAIN AND MELTED SNOW FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FLOWS ON THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE 10 ADVISORIES IN EFFECT...AND NO WARNINGS. THE NEXT
FEW DAYS SHOULD ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO GRADUALLY STABILIZE WITH ONLY
LIMITED PCPN EXPECTED. WITH ANY PCPN BEING IN THE FORM OF SNOW THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...NO REAL RUNOFF IS EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ037>039-043>045-050-051-056-057.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 250824
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. SOME RESIDUAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...BEFORE IT WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THIS
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS DETERMINING
THE FATE OF THE EXISTING HEADLINES THIS MORNING. WE WILL BE SHAVING
OFF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY WHERE SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT TO
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WE WILL BE HOLDING ON TO
THE ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE MORE FOR THE SNOW
IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE VS. AMOUNTS.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SNOW THIS
MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE DEFORMATION COMPONENT OF THE SNOW IS
DIMINISHING FOR OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WHAT IS LEFT IS A LITTLE
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIMITED LAKE EFFECT. WE DO EXPECT ANOTHER
LIMITED BURST OF SNOW THIS MORNING TOWARD 12Z AND THEN DIMINISHING
TOWARD NOON. THIS BURST WILL BE THE RESULT OF ONE MORE SHORT WAVE
ACROSS CENTRAL WI MOVING IN...ALONG WITH A SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTH TO ABOUT I-96 BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WE CONSIDERED CANCELLING THE ENTIRE ADVISORY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
WE DECIDED TO KEEP IT WHERE THERE IS ENOUGH SNOW FALLING SINCE IT
WILL IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ALONG WITH ICY ROADS IN ADDITION TO
THE EXPECTED BRIEF BURST OF SNOW IN THE VICINITY OF RUSH HOUR. IT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING ONCE THE
EXPECTED BURST OF SNOW PASSES THROUGH.

WE EXPECT THAT WE WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FCST BY WED. WE WILL SEE
RIDGING BUILD IN BY WED...AND THE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS SW
OF THE AREA. THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW ACTUALLY BECOMES MORE SERLY AS
A SFC LOW MOVES BY TO OUR SW. WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME CLEARING DURING THE DAY ON WED BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
EVENTUALLY MOVE BACK IN LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER
SHORT WAVE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

LAKE EFFECT WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE NW
SECTION OF THE CWFA AS THE SFC LOW TO OUR SW MOVES AWAY AND THE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BECOMES SWRLY. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL
INITIALLY BE LIMITED...HOWEVER THEY WILL RISE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
THE SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY NW ON
THANKSGIVING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WNW FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME
RELATIVELY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LIKE 1 TO 3 OR 2 TO 4 INCHES
FOR THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS. INLAND AREAS COULD SEE A DUSTING OF
SNOW AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW FAST
MOVING RIPPLES IN THE FLOW BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ALONG WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE START TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY THEN COOLING BACK DOWN AGAIN BY MONDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS. A BURST OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION...SO I WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW. THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BUT IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
PRECIP IS CLEAR OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH IT IS COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHEAST AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE BLO 5 KFT...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE IMPACTS OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUE TO BE FELT.
KGRR AND KMKG ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE LOWEST CONDITIONS GIVEN
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ADDED LAKE MOISTURE. ELSEWHERE IT
LOOKS LIKE PRIM ARLY AN MVFR NIGHT.

THE RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET HAS DIMINISHED AS COLDER CLOUD
TOPS WERE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LAKE EFFECT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR KMKG
CLOSELY AS THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE CLOSEST TO THAT AIRPORT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING MARINE OFFICES...WE WILL BE
CANCELLING THE GALE WARNING A LITTLE EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE
REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN UNTIL 04Z THIS
EVENING. LATEST OBS ALONG THE COAST ALL HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE
CRITERIA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
TODAY...WITH WAVES LAGGING THE DROP IN WIND BY A FEW HOURS.

THE NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MARINE WILL BE THE DAY ON THU. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY TYPE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE RAIN AND MELTED SNOW FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FLOWS ON THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE 10 ADVISORIES IN EFFECT...AND NO WARNINGS. THE NEXT
FEW DAYS SHOULD ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO GRADUALLY STABILIZE WITH ONLY
LIMITED PCPN EXPECTED. WITH ANY PCPN BEING IN THE FORM OF SNOW THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...NO REAL RUNOFF IS EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ037>039-043>045-050-051-056-057.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ






000
FXUS63 KGRR 250824
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. SOME RESIDUAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...BEFORE IT WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THIS
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS DETERMINING
THE FATE OF THE EXISTING HEADLINES THIS MORNING. WE WILL BE SHAVING
OFF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY WHERE SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT TO
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WE WILL BE HOLDING ON TO
THE ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE MORE FOR THE SNOW
IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE VS. AMOUNTS.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SNOW THIS
MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE DEFORMATION COMPONENT OF THE SNOW IS
DIMINISHING FOR OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WHAT IS LEFT IS A LITTLE
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIMITED LAKE EFFECT. WE DO EXPECT ANOTHER
LIMITED BURST OF SNOW THIS MORNING TOWARD 12Z AND THEN DIMINISHING
TOWARD NOON. THIS BURST WILL BE THE RESULT OF ONE MORE SHORT WAVE
ACROSS CENTRAL WI MOVING IN...ALONG WITH A SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTH TO ABOUT I-96 BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WE CONSIDERED CANCELLING THE ENTIRE ADVISORY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
WE DECIDED TO KEEP IT WHERE THERE IS ENOUGH SNOW FALLING SINCE IT
WILL IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ALONG WITH ICY ROADS IN ADDITION TO
THE EXPECTED BRIEF BURST OF SNOW IN THE VICINITY OF RUSH HOUR. IT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING ONCE THE
EXPECTED BURST OF SNOW PASSES THROUGH.

WE EXPECT THAT WE WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FCST BY WED. WE WILL SEE
RIDGING BUILD IN BY WED...AND THE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS SW
OF THE AREA. THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW ACTUALLY BECOMES MORE SERLY AS
A SFC LOW MOVES BY TO OUR SW. WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME CLEARING DURING THE DAY ON WED BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
EVENTUALLY MOVE BACK IN LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER
SHORT WAVE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

LAKE EFFECT WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE NW
SECTION OF THE CWFA AS THE SFC LOW TO OUR SW MOVES AWAY AND THE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BECOMES SWRLY. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL
INITIALLY BE LIMITED...HOWEVER THEY WILL RISE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
THE SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY NW ON
THANKSGIVING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WNW FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME
RELATIVELY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LIKE 1 TO 3 OR 2 TO 4 INCHES
FOR THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS. INLAND AREAS COULD SEE A DUSTING OF
SNOW AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW FAST
MOVING RIPPLES IN THE FLOW BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ALONG WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE START TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY THEN COOLING BACK DOWN AGAIN BY MONDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS. A BURST OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION...SO I WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW. THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BUT IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
PRECIP IS CLEAR OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH IT IS COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHEAST AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE BLO 5 KFT...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE IMPACTS OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUE TO BE FELT.
KGRR AND KMKG ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE LOWEST CONDITIONS GIVEN
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ADDED LAKE MOISTURE. ELSEWHERE IT
LOOKS LIKE PRIM ARLY AN MVFR NIGHT.

THE RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET HAS DIMINISHED AS COLDER CLOUD
TOPS WERE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LAKE EFFECT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR KMKG
CLOSELY AS THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE CLOSEST TO THAT AIRPORT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING MARINE OFFICES...WE WILL BE
CANCELLING THE GALE WARNING A LITTLE EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE
REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN UNTIL 04Z THIS
EVENING. LATEST OBS ALONG THE COAST ALL HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE
CRITERIA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
TODAY...WITH WAVES LAGGING THE DROP IN WIND BY A FEW HOURS.

THE NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MARINE WILL BE THE DAY ON THU. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY TYPE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE RAIN AND MELTED SNOW FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FLOWS ON THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE 10 ADVISORIES IN EFFECT...AND NO WARNINGS. THE NEXT
FEW DAYS SHOULD ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO GRADUALLY STABILIZE WITH ONLY
LIMITED PCPN EXPECTED. WITH ANY PCPN BEING IN THE FORM OF SNOW THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...NO REAL RUNOFF IS EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ037>039-043>045-050-051-056-057.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 250437
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1137 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A TURN TOWARD WINTER WEATHER SETS BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH SNOW ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW MAY
FALL. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND FURTHER SOUTH...BUT THE TUESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE AFFECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST MICHIGAN WITH
FALLING SNOW AND POTENTIALLY SLIPPERY ROADS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BURST OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL COME THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE WIND SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ENDING BY AROUND 1100PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE FCST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING...AND NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED TO THE HEADLINES THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN AS IS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR NOW...AND WE EXPECT THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP IT ON
SCHEDULE THIS EVENING BY 10 PM EST/03Z.

RADAR INDICATES THAT THE SNOW HAS MIGRATED INTO ITS POSITION THAT
SHOULD HOLD INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE POSITION IT HAS MIGRATED
INTO LINES UP VERY WELL WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT IS
IN EFFECT. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW RATES HAVE OCCURRED YET...AND
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH TEMPS REMAINING A
NOTCH ABOVE FREEZING.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE SEE THE GENERAL
DEFORMATION CONTINUE WITH INTERVALS OF ENHANCEMENT AS SHORT WAVES
RIDE THROUGH THE AREA. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT CONTINUES TO BE
EXPECTED WITH DELTA T/S IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DECIDED NOT TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS IT STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK. COLD AIR IS SWEEPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...WITH GRR ALREADY SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
IS SHIFTING NORTH WITH THE LOW HOWEVER...AND EXPECT THE DEFORMATION
ZONE TO SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
HEAVIEST SNOWS SHOULD FALL ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...OR
ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF A MUSKEGON TO CLARE LINE. THESE AREAS COULD SEE
4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF ON TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW HIGHER REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS SOMEWHAT STATIONARY ACROSS THIS AREA VERSUS
IT PIVOTING AROUND A BIT. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN SNOW TOTALS AS
WELL...WITH ABOUT A 1000 FOOT RISE FROM THE LAKE SURFACE TO THE HIGH
GROUND IN OSCEOLA COUNTY.

A LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT KICKS IN AS WELL...WITH DELTA T/S INCREASING
TO ABOVE 13 DEGREES C AROUND 01Z THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
DEEPEST MOISTURE...DEFORMATION ZONE AND BEST LIFT/CONVERGENCE ALL
SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA...INCLUDING LUDINGTON...
PENTWATER...BALDWIN...BIG RAPIDS...REED CITY AND CLARE.

FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECTING A BURST OF SNOW TO SWEEP NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH LAKE
SNOWS KICKING IN AFTER DARK. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MORE ON THE
ORDER OF 2 TO 5 INCHES.

WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO ALLEGAN AND
POSSIBLY VAN BUREN AND BARRY COUNTIES...BUT WILL NOT DO THAT YET.
WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY COME DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND THE
EVENING SHIFT COULD ADD ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS THEY SEE FIT. NOT
A SLAM DUNK BY ANY MEANS THAT THESE COUNTIES WILL NEED A WINTER
HEADLINE...BUT ALLEGAN WOULD SEEM MOST LIKELY.

THE LAKE SNOWS TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED
AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE PEELS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW.

NEXT CHANCE FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN
LAKE EFFECT BEGINS TO RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN. DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS IN
WITH A SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH SURGE OF COLDER AIR AT 850MB/S.

WIND ADVISORY AREA SEEMS TO BE WORKING OUT OK...WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WE/LL BE TRANSITIONING FROM A HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW TO A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THAT USUALLY MEANS A COUPLE OF
THINGS. THE FIRST IS THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT AND STAY WELL
NORTH OF THE CWA.  THE SECOND THING THAT USUALLY HAPPENS IS THAT
SYSTEMS MOVE QUICKLY AND REGULARLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH OF
THOSE LOOK TO OCCUR.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE AIR
WILL STILL BE COLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 ON THANKSGIVING. THE LAKE
EFFECT WILL WIND DOWN FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MOVES EAST.
WARMER AIR WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL LEAD TO SOME RAIN SATURDAY
BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND PCPN
CHANGES BACK TO SNOW. THE CORE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER
WILL STAY IN CANADA DUE TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR NORTH AGAIN BY TUESDAY.

SO...VERY CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE IMPACTS OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUE TO BE FELT.
KGRR AND KMKG ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE LOWEST CONDITIONS GIVEN
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ADDED LAKE MOISTURE. ELSEWHERE IT
LOOKS LIKE PRIM ARLY AN MVFR NIGHT.

THE RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET HAS DIMINISHED AS COLDER CLOUD
TOPS WERE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LAKE EFFECT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR KMKG
CLOSELY AS THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE CLOSEST TO THAT AIRPORT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

CONTINUED THE GALE WARNING IN THE SOUTHERN 5 ZONES (SOUTH OF
PENTWATER) AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONE
(NORTH OF PENTWATER). GALES MAY BE A BIT TOUGH TO GET OFF SHORE OF
OCEANA COUNTY...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE SO LEFT IT AS IS. THE MUSKEGON
GLERL SITE HAS IT 40 KNOTS...WHILE THE PIER OB AT HOLLAND HAS IT 44
KNOTS. GALES SHOULD TONE DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
PERSISTING LIKELY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO DOWNGRADE THE GALE TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
THEN EXTEND IT OUT INTO TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL HAS RANGED FROM 1 TO SLIGHTLY OVER 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH A SNOWPACK THAT
COMPLETELY MELTED. RIVER RESPONSES HAVE BEEN NOTABLE TODAY WITH
SHARP RISES ON SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS AND STEADY RISES ON MAIN
STEM RIVERS INCLUDING THE GRAND RIVER AND MUSKEGON RIVER. ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED YET THIS EVENING FOR EXPECTED CRESTS ABOVE
BANKFULL...CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED IMPACTS TO AREAS IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE RIVERS. THIS INCLUDES STANDING WATER ON RIVER EDGES
AND WATER SPILLING ONTO ADJACENT ROADWAYS AND PARKING LOTS.

WE ARE EXPECTING A CREST ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO BEGIN WORKING ITS
WAY DOWNSTREAM FROM EVART BY MIDWEEK. THIS MAY AFFECT AREAS ALONG
THE MUSKEGON RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF ROGERS POND AND ALSO CROTON/HARDY
DAMS. RISES BETWEEN BANKFULL AND FLOOD STAGE ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE
LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF EVART. ON THE GRAND...A CREST OF 14.5 FEET
IS FORECAST AT IONIA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS ONE FOOT ABOVE
BANKFULL. THIS CREST WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO KENT COUNTY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY OUT TO LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM AT THIS TIME.

ANY ICE THAT WAS PRESENT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD HAVE
MELTED OR BLOWN OUT WITH THE HIGH VOLUME OF WATER THE RIVERS ARE
EXPERIENCING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE TO FORM FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK GIVEN THESE HIGH FLOWS AND TEMPERATURES NOT BEING COLD
ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL ICE FORMATION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-050-051-056-057.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>848.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...DUKE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 250148
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
848 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A TURN TOWARD WINTER WEATHER SETS BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH SNOW ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW MAY
FALL. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND FURTHER SOUTH...BUT THE TUESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE AFFECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST MICHIGAN WITH
FALLING SNOW AND POTENTIALLY SLIPPERY ROADS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BURST OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL COME THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE WIND SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ENDING BY AROUND 1100PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE FCST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING...AND NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED TO THE HEADLINES THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN AS IS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR NOW...AND WE EXPECT THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP IT ON
SCHEDULE THIS EVENING BY 10 PM EST/03Z.

RADAR INDICATES THAT THE SNOW HAS MIGRATED INTO ITS POSITION THAT
SHOULD HOLD INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE POSITION IT HAS MIGRATED
INTO LINES UP VERY WELL WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT IS
IN EFFECT. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW RATES HAVE OCCURRED YET...AND
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH TEMPS REMAINING A
NOTCH ABOVE FREEZING.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE SEE THE GENERAL
DEFORMATION CONTINUE WITH INTERVALS OF ENHANCEMENT AS SHORT WAVES
RIDE THROUGH THE AREA. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT CONTINUES TO BE
EXPECTED WITH DELTA T/S IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DECIDED NOT TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS IT STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK. COLD AIR IS SWEEPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...WITH GRR ALREADY SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
IS SHIFTING NORTH WITH THE LOW HOWEVER...AND EXPECT THE DEFORMATION
ZONE TO SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
HEAVIEST SNOWS SHOULD FALL ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...OR
ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF A MUSKEGON TO CLARE LINE. THESE AREAS COULD SEE
4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF ON TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW HIGHER REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS SOMEWHAT STATIONARY ACROSS THIS AREA VERSUS
IT PIVOTING AROUND A BIT. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN SNOW TOTALS AS
WELL...WITH ABOUT A 1000 FOOT RISE FROM THE LAKE SURFACE TO THE HIGH
GROUND IN OSCEOLA COUNTY.

A LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT KICKS IN AS WELL...WITH DELTA T/S INCREASING
TO ABOVE 13 DEGREES C AROUND 01Z THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
DEEPEST MOISTURE...DEFORMATION ZONE AND BEST LIFT/CONVERGENCE ALL
SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA...INCLUDING LUDINGTON...
PENTWATER...BALDWIN...BIG RAPIDS...REED CITY AND CLARE.

FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECTING A BURST OF SNOW TO SWEEP NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH LAKE
SNOWS KICKING IN AFTER DARK. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MORE ON THE
ORDER OF 2 TO 5 INCHES.

WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO ALLEGAN AND
POSSIBLY VAN BUREN AND BARRY COUNTIES...BUT WILL NOT DO THAT YET.
WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY COME DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND THE
EVENING SHIFT COULD ADD ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS THEY SEE FIT. NOT
A SLAM DUNK BY ANY MEANS THAT THESE COUNTIES WILL NEED A WINTER
HEADLINE...BUT ALLEGAN WOULD SEEM MOST LIKELY.

THE LAKE SNOWS TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED
AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE PEELS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW.

NEXT CHANCE FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN
LAKE EFFECT BEGINS TO RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN. DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS IN
WITH A SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH SURGE OF COLDER AIR AT 850MB/S.

WIND ADVISORY AREA SEEMS TO BE WORKING OUT OK...WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WE/LL BE TRANSITIONING FROM A HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW TO A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THAT USUALLY MEANS A COUPLE OF
THINGS. THE FIRST IS THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT AND STAY WELL
NORTH OF THE CWA.  THE SECOND THING THAT USUALLY HAPPENS IS THAT
SYSTEMS MOVE QUICKLY AND REGULARLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH OF
THOSE LOOK TO OCCUR.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE AIR
WILL STILL BE COLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 ON THANKSGIVING. THE LAKE
EFFECT WILL WIND DOWN FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MOVES EAST.
WARMER AIR WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL LEAD TO SOME RAIN SATURDAY
BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND PCPN
CHANGES BACK TO SNOW. THE CORE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER
WILL STAY IN CANADA DUE TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR NORTH AGAIN BY TUESDAY.

SO...VERY CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IMPACTS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...BUT VALUES WILL BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING.
A RISK FOR IFR WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THE SNOW COULD IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY FOR
KGRR AND KMKG. THE SNOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES LATER
TUESDAY MORNING AND MORE SO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A RISK FOR ICING EXISTS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
KMKG TO KRQB LINE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

CONTINUED THE GALE WARNING IN THE SOUTHERN 5 ZONES (SOUTH OF
PENTWATER) AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONE
(NORTH OF PENTWATER). GALES MAY BE A BIT TOUGH TO GET OFF SHORE OF
OCEANA COUNTY...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE SO LEFT IT AS IS. THE MUSKEGON
GLERL SITE HAS IT 40 KNOTS...WHILE THE PIER OB AT HOLLAND HAS IT 44
KNOTS. GALES SHOULD TONE DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
PERSISTING LIKELY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO DOWNGRADE THE GALE TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
THEN EXTEND IT OUT INTO TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL HAS RANGED FROM 1 TO SLIGHTLY OVER 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH A SNOWPACK THAT
COMPLETELY MELTED. RIVER RESPONSES HAVE BEEN NOTABLE TODAY WITH
SHARP RISES ON SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS AND STEADY RISES ON MAIN
STEM RIVERS INCLUDING THE GRAND RIVER AND MUSKEGON RIVER. ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED YET THIS EVENING FOR EXPECTED CRESTS ABOVE
BANKFULL...CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED IMPACTS TO AREAS IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE RIVERS. THIS INCLUDES STANDING WATER ON RIVER EDGES
AND WATER SPILLING ONTO ADJACENT ROADWAYS AND PARKING LOTS.

WE ARE EXPECTING A CREST ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO BEGIN WORKING ITS
WAY DOWNSTREAM FROM EVART BY MIDWEEK. THIS MAY AFFECT AREAS ALONG
THE MUSKEGON RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF ROGERS POND AND ALSO CROTON/HARDY
DAMS. RISES BETWEEN BANKFULL AND FLOOD STAGE ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE
LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF EVART. ON THE GRAND...A CREST OF 14.5 FEET
IS FORECAST AT IONIA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS ONE FOOT ABOVE
BANKFULL. THIS CREST WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO KENT COUNTY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY OUT TO LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM AT THIS TIME.

ANY ICE THAT WAS PRESENT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD HAVE
MELTED OR BLOWN OUT WITH THE HIGH VOLUME OF WATER THE RIVERS ARE
EXPERIENCING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE TO FORM FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK GIVEN THESE HIGH FLOWS AND TEMPERATURES NOT BEING COLD
ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL ICE FORMATION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ052-058-059-
     064>067-071>074.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-050-051-056-057.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>848.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...DUKE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 250148
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
848 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A TURN TOWARD WINTER WEATHER SETS BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH SNOW ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW MAY
FALL. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND FURTHER SOUTH...BUT THE TUESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE AFFECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST MICHIGAN WITH
FALLING SNOW AND POTENTIALLY SLIPPERY ROADS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BURST OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL COME THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE WIND SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ENDING BY AROUND 1100PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE FCST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING...AND NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED TO THE HEADLINES THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN AS IS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR NOW...AND WE EXPECT THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP IT ON
SCHEDULE THIS EVENING BY 10 PM EST/03Z.

RADAR INDICATES THAT THE SNOW HAS MIGRATED INTO ITS POSITION THAT
SHOULD HOLD INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE POSITION IT HAS MIGRATED
INTO LINES UP VERY WELL WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT IS
IN EFFECT. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW RATES HAVE OCCURRED YET...AND
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH TEMPS REMAINING A
NOTCH ABOVE FREEZING.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE SEE THE GENERAL
DEFORMATION CONTINUE WITH INTERVALS OF ENHANCEMENT AS SHORT WAVES
RIDE THROUGH THE AREA. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT CONTINUES TO BE
EXPECTED WITH DELTA T/S IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DECIDED NOT TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS IT STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK. COLD AIR IS SWEEPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...WITH GRR ALREADY SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
IS SHIFTING NORTH WITH THE LOW HOWEVER...AND EXPECT THE DEFORMATION
ZONE TO SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
HEAVIEST SNOWS SHOULD FALL ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...OR
ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF A MUSKEGON TO CLARE LINE. THESE AREAS COULD SEE
4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF ON TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW HIGHER REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS SOMEWHAT STATIONARY ACROSS THIS AREA VERSUS
IT PIVOTING AROUND A BIT. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN SNOW TOTALS AS
WELL...WITH ABOUT A 1000 FOOT RISE FROM THE LAKE SURFACE TO THE HIGH
GROUND IN OSCEOLA COUNTY.

A LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT KICKS IN AS WELL...WITH DELTA T/S INCREASING
TO ABOVE 13 DEGREES C AROUND 01Z THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
DEEPEST MOISTURE...DEFORMATION ZONE AND BEST LIFT/CONVERGENCE ALL
SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA...INCLUDING LUDINGTON...
PENTWATER...BALDWIN...BIG RAPIDS...REED CITY AND CLARE.

FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECTING A BURST OF SNOW TO SWEEP NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH LAKE
SNOWS KICKING IN AFTER DARK. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MORE ON THE
ORDER OF 2 TO 5 INCHES.

WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO ALLEGAN AND
POSSIBLY VAN BUREN AND BARRY COUNTIES...BUT WILL NOT DO THAT YET.
WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY COME DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND THE
EVENING SHIFT COULD ADD ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS THEY SEE FIT. NOT
A SLAM DUNK BY ANY MEANS THAT THESE COUNTIES WILL NEED A WINTER
HEADLINE...BUT ALLEGAN WOULD SEEM MOST LIKELY.

THE LAKE SNOWS TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED
AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE PEELS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW.

NEXT CHANCE FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN
LAKE EFFECT BEGINS TO RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN. DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS IN
WITH A SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH SURGE OF COLDER AIR AT 850MB/S.

WIND ADVISORY AREA SEEMS TO BE WORKING OUT OK...WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WE/LL BE TRANSITIONING FROM A HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW TO A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THAT USUALLY MEANS A COUPLE OF
THINGS. THE FIRST IS THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT AND STAY WELL
NORTH OF THE CWA.  THE SECOND THING THAT USUALLY HAPPENS IS THAT
SYSTEMS MOVE QUICKLY AND REGULARLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH OF
THOSE LOOK TO OCCUR.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE AIR
WILL STILL BE COLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 ON THANKSGIVING. THE LAKE
EFFECT WILL WIND DOWN FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MOVES EAST.
WARMER AIR WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL LEAD TO SOME RAIN SATURDAY
BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND PCPN
CHANGES BACK TO SNOW. THE CORE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER
WILL STAY IN CANADA DUE TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR NORTH AGAIN BY TUESDAY.

SO...VERY CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IMPACTS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...BUT VALUES WILL BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING.
A RISK FOR IFR WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THE SNOW COULD IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY FOR
KGRR AND KMKG. THE SNOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES LATER
TUESDAY MORNING AND MORE SO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A RISK FOR ICING EXISTS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
KMKG TO KRQB LINE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

CONTINUED THE GALE WARNING IN THE SOUTHERN 5 ZONES (SOUTH OF
PENTWATER) AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONE
(NORTH OF PENTWATER). GALES MAY BE A BIT TOUGH TO GET OFF SHORE OF
OCEANA COUNTY...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE SO LEFT IT AS IS. THE MUSKEGON
GLERL SITE HAS IT 40 KNOTS...WHILE THE PIER OB AT HOLLAND HAS IT 44
KNOTS. GALES SHOULD TONE DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
PERSISTING LIKELY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO DOWNGRADE THE GALE TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
THEN EXTEND IT OUT INTO TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL HAS RANGED FROM 1 TO SLIGHTLY OVER 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH A SNOWPACK THAT
COMPLETELY MELTED. RIVER RESPONSES HAVE BEEN NOTABLE TODAY WITH
SHARP RISES ON SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS AND STEADY RISES ON MAIN
STEM RIVERS INCLUDING THE GRAND RIVER AND MUSKEGON RIVER. ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED YET THIS EVENING FOR EXPECTED CRESTS ABOVE
BANKFULL...CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED IMPACTS TO AREAS IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE RIVERS. THIS INCLUDES STANDING WATER ON RIVER EDGES
AND WATER SPILLING ONTO ADJACENT ROADWAYS AND PARKING LOTS.

WE ARE EXPECTING A CREST ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO BEGIN WORKING ITS
WAY DOWNSTREAM FROM EVART BY MIDWEEK. THIS MAY AFFECT AREAS ALONG
THE MUSKEGON RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF ROGERS POND AND ALSO CROTON/HARDY
DAMS. RISES BETWEEN BANKFULL AND FLOOD STAGE ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE
LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF EVART. ON THE GRAND...A CREST OF 14.5 FEET
IS FORECAST AT IONIA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS ONE FOOT ABOVE
BANKFULL. THIS CREST WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO KENT COUNTY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY OUT TO LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM AT THIS TIME.

ANY ICE THAT WAS PRESENT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD HAVE
MELTED OR BLOWN OUT WITH THE HIGH VOLUME OF WATER THE RIVERS ARE
EXPERIENCING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE TO FORM FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK GIVEN THESE HIGH FLOWS AND TEMPERATURES NOT BEING COLD
ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL ICE FORMATION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ052-058-059-
     064>067-071>074.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-050-051-056-057.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>848.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...DUKE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 242338
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
638 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A TURN TOWARD WINTER WEATHER SETS BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH SNOW ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW MAY
FALL. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND FURTHER SOUTH...BUT THE TUESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE AFFECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST MICHIGAN WITH
FALLING SNOW AND POTENTIALLY SLIPPERY ROADS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BURST OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL COME THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE WIND SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ENDING BY AROUND 1100PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DECIDED NOT TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS IT STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK. COLD AIR IS SWEEPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...WITH GRR ALREADY SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
IS SHIFTING NORTH WITH THE LOW HOWEVER...AND EXPECT THE DEFORMATION
ZONE TO SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
HEAVIEST SNOWS SHOULD FALL ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...OR
ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF A MUSKEGON TO CLARE LINE. THESE AREAS COULD SEE
4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF ON TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW HIGHER REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS SOMEWHAT STATIONARY ACROSS THIS AREA VERSUS
IT PIVOTING AROUND A BIT. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN SNOW TOTALS AS
WELL...WITH ABOUT A 1000 FOOT RISE FROM THE LAKE SURFACE TO THE HIGH
GROUND IN OSCEOLA COUNTY.

A LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT KICKS IN AS WELL...WITH DELTA T/S INCREASING
TO ABOVE 13 DEGREES C AROUND 01Z THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
DEEPEST MOISTURE...DEFORMATION ZONE AND BEST LIFT/CONVERGENCE ALL
SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA...INCLUDING LUDINGTON...
PENTWATER...BALDWIN...BIG RAPIDS...REED CITY AND CLARE.

FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECTING A BURST OF SNOW TO SWEEP NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH LAKE
SNOWS KICKING IN AFTER DARK. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MORE ON THE
ORDER OF 2 TO 5 INCHES.

WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO ALLEGAN AND
POSSIBLY VAN BUREN AND BARRY COUNTIES...BUT WILL NOT DO THAT YET.
WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY COME DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND THE
EVENING SHIFT COULD ADD ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS THEY SEE FIT. NOT
A SLAM DUNK BY ANY MEANS THAT THESE COUNTIES WILL NEED A WINTER
HEADLINE...BUT ALLEGAN WOULD SEEM MOST LIKELY.

THE LAKE SNOWS TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED
AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE PEELS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW.

NEXT CHANCE FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN
LAKE EFFECT BEGINS TO RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN. DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS IN
WITH A SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH SURGE OF COLDER AIR AT 850MB/S.

WIND ADVISORY AREA SEEMS TO BE WORKING OUT OK...WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WE/LL BE TRANSITIONING FROM A HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW TO A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THAT USUALLY MEANS A COUPLE OF
THINGS. THE FIRST IS THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT AND STAY WELL
NORTH OF THE CWA.  THE SECOND THING THAT USUALLY HAPPENS IS THAT
SYSTEMS MOVE QUICKLY AND REGULARLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH OF
THOSE LOOK TO OCCUR.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE AIR
WILL STILL BE COLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 ON THANKSGIVING. THE LAKE
EFFECT WILL WIND DOWN FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MOVES EAST.
WARMER AIR WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL LEAD TO SOME RAIN SATURDAY
BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND PCPN
CHANGES BACK TO SNOW. THE CORE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER
WILL STAY IN CANADA DUE TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR NORTH AGAIN BY TUESDAY.

SO...VERY CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IMPACTS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...BUT VALUES WILL BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING.
A RISK FOR IFR WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THE SNOW COULD IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY FOR
KGRR AND KMKG. THE SNOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES LATER
TUESDAY MORNING AND MORE SO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A RISK FOR ICING EXISTS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
KMKG TO KRQB LINE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

CONTINUED THE GALE WARNING IN THE SOUTHERN 5 ZONES (SOUTH OF
PENTWATER) AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONE
(NORTH OF PENTWATER). GALES MAY BE A BIT TOUGH TO GET OFF SHORE OF
OCEANA COUNTY...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE SO LEFT IT AS IS. THE MUSKEGON
GLERL SITE HAS IT 40 KNOTS...WHILE THE PIER OB AT HOLLAND HAS IT 44
KNOTS. GALES SHOULD TONE DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
PERSISTING LIKELY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO DOWNGRADE THE GALE TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
THEN EXTEND IT OUT INTO TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL HAS RANGED FROM 1 TO SLIGHTLY OVER 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH A SNOWPACK THAT
COMPLETELY MELTED. RIVER RESPONSES HAVE BEEN NOTABLE TODAY WITH
SHARP RISES ON SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS AND STEADY RISES ON MAIN
STEM RIVERS INCLUDING THE GRAND RIVER AND MUSKEGON RIVER. ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED YET THIS EVENING FOR EXPECTED CRESTS ABOVE
BANKFULL...CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED IMPACTS TO AREAS IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE RIVERS. THIS INCLUDES STANDING WATER ON RIVER EDGES
AND WATER SPILLING ONTO ADJACENT ROADWAYS AND PARKING LOTS.

WE ARE EXPECTING A CREST ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO BEGIN WORKING ITS
WAY DOWNSTREAM FROM EVART BY MIDWEEK. THIS MAY AFFECT AREAS ALONG
THE MUSKEGON RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF ROGERS POND AND ALSO CROTON/HARDY
DAMS. RISES BETWEEN BANKFULL AND FLOOD STAGE ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE
LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF EVART. ON THE GRAND...A CREST OF 14.5 FEET
IS FORECAST AT IONIA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS ONE FOOT ABOVE
BANKFULL. THIS CREST WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO KENT COUNTY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY OUT TO LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM AT THIS TIME.

ANY ICE THAT WAS PRESENT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD HAVE
MELTED OR BLOWN OUT WITH THE HIGH VOLUME OF WATER THE RIVERS ARE
EXPERIENCING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE TO FORM FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK GIVEN THESE HIGH FLOWS AND TEMPERATURES NOT BEING COLD
ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL ICE FORMATION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ052-058-059-
     064>067-071>074.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-050-051-056-057.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>848.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...DUKE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 242338
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
638 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A TURN TOWARD WINTER WEATHER SETS BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH SNOW ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW MAY
FALL. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND FURTHER SOUTH...BUT THE TUESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE AFFECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST MICHIGAN WITH
FALLING SNOW AND POTENTIALLY SLIPPERY ROADS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BURST OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL COME THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE WIND SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ENDING BY AROUND 1100PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DECIDED NOT TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS IT STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK. COLD AIR IS SWEEPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...WITH GRR ALREADY SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
IS SHIFTING NORTH WITH THE LOW HOWEVER...AND EXPECT THE DEFORMATION
ZONE TO SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
HEAVIEST SNOWS SHOULD FALL ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...OR
ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF A MUSKEGON TO CLARE LINE. THESE AREAS COULD SEE
4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF ON TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW HIGHER REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS SOMEWHAT STATIONARY ACROSS THIS AREA VERSUS
IT PIVOTING AROUND A BIT. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN SNOW TOTALS AS
WELL...WITH ABOUT A 1000 FOOT RISE FROM THE LAKE SURFACE TO THE HIGH
GROUND IN OSCEOLA COUNTY.

A LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT KICKS IN AS WELL...WITH DELTA T/S INCREASING
TO ABOVE 13 DEGREES C AROUND 01Z THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
DEEPEST MOISTURE...DEFORMATION ZONE AND BEST LIFT/CONVERGENCE ALL
SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA...INCLUDING LUDINGTON...
PENTWATER...BALDWIN...BIG RAPIDS...REED CITY AND CLARE.

FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECTING A BURST OF SNOW TO SWEEP NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH LAKE
SNOWS KICKING IN AFTER DARK. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MORE ON THE
ORDER OF 2 TO 5 INCHES.

WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO ALLEGAN AND
POSSIBLY VAN BUREN AND BARRY COUNTIES...BUT WILL NOT DO THAT YET.
WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY COME DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND THE
EVENING SHIFT COULD ADD ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS THEY SEE FIT. NOT
A SLAM DUNK BY ANY MEANS THAT THESE COUNTIES WILL NEED A WINTER
HEADLINE...BUT ALLEGAN WOULD SEEM MOST LIKELY.

THE LAKE SNOWS TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED
AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE PEELS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW.

NEXT CHANCE FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN
LAKE EFFECT BEGINS TO RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN. DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS IN
WITH A SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH SURGE OF COLDER AIR AT 850MB/S.

WIND ADVISORY AREA SEEMS TO BE WORKING OUT OK...WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WE/LL BE TRANSITIONING FROM A HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW TO A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THAT USUALLY MEANS A COUPLE OF
THINGS. THE FIRST IS THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT AND STAY WELL
NORTH OF THE CWA.  THE SECOND THING THAT USUALLY HAPPENS IS THAT
SYSTEMS MOVE QUICKLY AND REGULARLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH OF
THOSE LOOK TO OCCUR.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE AIR
WILL STILL BE COLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 ON THANKSGIVING. THE LAKE
EFFECT WILL WIND DOWN FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MOVES EAST.
WARMER AIR WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL LEAD TO SOME RAIN SATURDAY
BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND PCPN
CHANGES BACK TO SNOW. THE CORE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER
WILL STAY IN CANADA DUE TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR NORTH AGAIN BY TUESDAY.

SO...VERY CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IMPACTS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...BUT VALUES WILL BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING.
A RISK FOR IFR WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THE SNOW COULD IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY FOR
KGRR AND KMKG. THE SNOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES LATER
TUESDAY MORNING AND MORE SO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A RISK FOR ICING EXISTS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
KMKG TO KRQB LINE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

CONTINUED THE GALE WARNING IN THE SOUTHERN 5 ZONES (SOUTH OF
PENTWATER) AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONE
(NORTH OF PENTWATER). GALES MAY BE A BIT TOUGH TO GET OFF SHORE OF
OCEANA COUNTY...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE SO LEFT IT AS IS. THE MUSKEGON
GLERL SITE HAS IT 40 KNOTS...WHILE THE PIER OB AT HOLLAND HAS IT 44
KNOTS. GALES SHOULD TONE DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
PERSISTING LIKELY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO DOWNGRADE THE GALE TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
THEN EXTEND IT OUT INTO TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL HAS RANGED FROM 1 TO SLIGHTLY OVER 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH A SNOWPACK THAT
COMPLETELY MELTED. RIVER RESPONSES HAVE BEEN NOTABLE TODAY WITH
SHARP RISES ON SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS AND STEADY RISES ON MAIN
STEM RIVERS INCLUDING THE GRAND RIVER AND MUSKEGON RIVER. ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED YET THIS EVENING FOR EXPECTED CRESTS ABOVE
BANKFULL...CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED IMPACTS TO AREAS IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE RIVERS. THIS INCLUDES STANDING WATER ON RIVER EDGES
AND WATER SPILLING ONTO ADJACENT ROADWAYS AND PARKING LOTS.

WE ARE EXPECTING A CREST ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO BEGIN WORKING ITS
WAY DOWNSTREAM FROM EVART BY MIDWEEK. THIS MAY AFFECT AREAS ALONG
THE MUSKEGON RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF ROGERS POND AND ALSO CROTON/HARDY
DAMS. RISES BETWEEN BANKFULL AND FLOOD STAGE ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE
LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF EVART. ON THE GRAND...A CREST OF 14.5 FEET
IS FORECAST AT IONIA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS ONE FOOT ABOVE
BANKFULL. THIS CREST WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO KENT COUNTY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY OUT TO LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM AT THIS TIME.

ANY ICE THAT WAS PRESENT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD HAVE
MELTED OR BLOWN OUT WITH THE HIGH VOLUME OF WATER THE RIVERS ARE
EXPERIENCING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE TO FORM FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK GIVEN THESE HIGH FLOWS AND TEMPERATURES NOT BEING COLD
ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL ICE FORMATION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ052-058-059-
     064>067-071>074.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-050-051-056-057.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>848.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...DUKE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 242033
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A TURN TOWARD WINTER WEATHER SETS BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH SNOW ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW MAY
FALL. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND FURTHER SOUTH...BUT THE TUESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE AFFECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST MICHIGAN WITH
FALLING SNOW AND POTENTIALLY SLIPPERY ROADS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BURST OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL COME THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE WIND SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ENDING BY AROUND 1100PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DECIDED NOT TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS IT STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK. COLD AIR IS SWEEPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...WITH GRR ALREADY SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
IS SHIFTING NORTH WITH THE LOW HOWEVER...AND EXPECT THE DEFORMATION
ZONE TO SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
HEAVIEST SNOWS SHOULD FALL ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...OR
ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF A MUSKEGON TO CLARE LINE. THESE AREAS COULD SEE
4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF ON TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW HIGHER REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS SOMEWHAT STATIONARY ACROSS THIS AREA VERSUS
IT PIVOTING AROUND A BIT. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN SNOW TOTALS AS
WELL...WITH ABOUT A 1000 FOOT RISE FROM THE LAKE SURFACE TO THE HIGH
GROUND IN OSCEOLA COUNTY.

A LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT KICKS IN AS WELL...WITH DELTA T/S INCREASING
TO ABOVE 13 DEGREES C AROUND 01Z THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
DEEPEST MOISTURE...DEFORMATION ZONE AND BEST LIFT/CONVERGENCE ALL
SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA...INCLUDING LUDINGTON...
PENTWATER...BALDWIN...BIG RAPIDS...REED CITY AND CLARE.

FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECTING A BURST OF SNOW TO SWEEP NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH LAKE
SNOWS KICKING IN AFTER DARK. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MORE ON THE
ORDER OF 2 TO 5 INCHES.

WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO ALLEGAN AND
POSSIBLY VAN BUREN AND BARRY COUNTIES...BUT WILL NOT DO THAT YET.
WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY COME DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND THE
EVENING SHIFT COULD ADD ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS THEY SEE FIT. NOT
A SLAM DUNK BY ANY MEANS THAT THESE COUNTIES WILL NEED A WINTER
HEADLINE...BUT ALLEGAN WOULD SEEM MOST LIKELY.

THE LAKE SNOWS TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED
AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE PEELS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW.

NEXT CHANCE FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN
LAKE EFFECT BEGINS TO RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN. DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS IN
WITH A SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH SURGE OF COLDER AIR AT 850MB/S.

WIND ADVISORY AREA SEEMS TO BE WORKING OUT OK...WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WE/LL BE TRANSITIONING FROM A HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW TO A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THAT USUALLY MEANS A COUPLE OF
THINGS. THE FIRST IS THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT AND STAY WELL
NORTH OF THE CWA.  THE SECOND THING THAT USUALLY HAPPENS IS THAT
SYSTEMS MOVE QUICKLY AND REGULARLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH OF
THOSE LOOK TO OCCUR.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE AIR
WILL STILL BE COLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 ON THANKSGIVING. THE LAKE
EFFECT WILL WIND DOWN FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MOVES EAST.
WARMER AIR WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL LEAD TO SOME RAIN SATURDAY
BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND PCPN
CHANGES BACK TO SNOW. THE CORE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER
WILL STAY IN CANADA DUE TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR NORTH AGAIN BY TUESDAY.

SO...VERY CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WSW
AND WON/T DIMINISH UNTIL MID EVENING. SHRA WILL TRANSITION TO SHSN
THIS AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. VSBYS WILL
REMAIN BLO 5SM THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KLAN/KJXN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

CONTINUED THE GALE WARNING IN THE SOUTHERN 5 ZONES (SOUTH OF
PENTWATER) AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONE
(NORTH OF PENTWATER). GALES MAY BE A BIT TOUGH TO GET OFF SHORE OF
OCEANA COUNTY...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE SO LEFT IT AS IS. THE MUSKEGON
GLERL SITE HAS IT 40 KNOTS...WHILE THE PIER OB AT HOLLAND HAS IT 44
KNOTS. GALES SHOULD TONE DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
PERSISTING LIKELY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO DOWNGRADE THE GALE TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
THEN EXTEND IT OUT INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL HAS RANGED FROM 1 TO SLIGHTLY OVER 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH A SNOWPACK THAT
COMPLETELY MELTED. RIVER RESPONSES HAVE BEEN NOTABLE TODAY WITH
SHARP RISES ON SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS AND STEADY RISES ON MAIN
STEM RIVERS INCLUDING THE GRAND RIVER AND MUSKEGON RIVER. ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED YET THIS EVENING FOR EXPECTED CRESTS ABOVE
BANKFULL...CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED IMPACTS TO AREAS IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE RIVERS. THIS INCLUDES STANDING WATER ON RIVER EDGES
AND WATER SPILLING ONTO ADJACENT ROADWAYS AND PARKING LOTS.

WE ARE EXPECTING A CREST ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO BEGIN WORKING ITS
WAY DOWNSTREAM FROM EVART BY MIDWEEK. THIS MAY AFFECT AREAS ALONG
THE MUSKEGON RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF ROGERS POND AND ALSO CROTON/HARDY
DAMS. RISES BETWEEN BANKFULL AND FLOOD STAGE ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE
LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF EVART. ON THE GRAND...A CREST OF 14.5 FEET
IS FORECAST AT IONIA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS ONE FOOT ABOVE
BANKFULL. THIS CREST WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO KENT COUNTY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY OUT TO LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM AT THIS TIME.

ANY ICE THAT WAS PRESENT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD HAVE
MELTED OR BLOWN OUT WITH THE HIGH VOLUME OF WATER THE RIVERS ARE
EXPERIENCING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE TO FORM FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK GIVEN THESE HIGH FLOWS AND TEMPERATURES NOT BEING COLD
ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL ICE FORMATION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ052-058-059-
     064>067-071>074.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-050-051-056-057.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>848.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...DUKE










000
FXUS63 KGRR 242033
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A TURN TOWARD WINTER WEATHER SETS BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH SNOW ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW MAY
FALL. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND FURTHER SOUTH...BUT THE TUESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE AFFECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST MICHIGAN WITH
FALLING SNOW AND POTENTIALLY SLIPPERY ROADS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BURST OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL COME THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE WIND SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ENDING BY AROUND 1100PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DECIDED NOT TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS IT STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK. COLD AIR IS SWEEPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...WITH GRR ALREADY SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
IS SHIFTING NORTH WITH THE LOW HOWEVER...AND EXPECT THE DEFORMATION
ZONE TO SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
HEAVIEST SNOWS SHOULD FALL ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...OR
ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF A MUSKEGON TO CLARE LINE. THESE AREAS COULD SEE
4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF ON TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW HIGHER REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS SOMEWHAT STATIONARY ACROSS THIS AREA VERSUS
IT PIVOTING AROUND A BIT. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN SNOW TOTALS AS
WELL...WITH ABOUT A 1000 FOOT RISE FROM THE LAKE SURFACE TO THE HIGH
GROUND IN OSCEOLA COUNTY.

A LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT KICKS IN AS WELL...WITH DELTA T/S INCREASING
TO ABOVE 13 DEGREES C AROUND 01Z THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
DEEPEST MOISTURE...DEFORMATION ZONE AND BEST LIFT/CONVERGENCE ALL
SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA...INCLUDING LUDINGTON...
PENTWATER...BALDWIN...BIG RAPIDS...REED CITY AND CLARE.

FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECTING A BURST OF SNOW TO SWEEP NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH LAKE
SNOWS KICKING IN AFTER DARK. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MORE ON THE
ORDER OF 2 TO 5 INCHES.

WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO ALLEGAN AND
POSSIBLY VAN BUREN AND BARRY COUNTIES...BUT WILL NOT DO THAT YET.
WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY COME DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND THE
EVENING SHIFT COULD ADD ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS THEY SEE FIT. NOT
A SLAM DUNK BY ANY MEANS THAT THESE COUNTIES WILL NEED A WINTER
HEADLINE...BUT ALLEGAN WOULD SEEM MOST LIKELY.

THE LAKE SNOWS TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY AS THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED
AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE PEELS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW.

NEXT CHANCE FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN
LAKE EFFECT BEGINS TO RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN. DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS IN
WITH A SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH SURGE OF COLDER AIR AT 850MB/S.

WIND ADVISORY AREA SEEMS TO BE WORKING OUT OK...WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WE/LL BE TRANSITIONING FROM A HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW TO A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THAT USUALLY MEANS A COUPLE OF
THINGS. THE FIRST IS THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT AND STAY WELL
NORTH OF THE CWA.  THE SECOND THING THAT USUALLY HAPPENS IS THAT
SYSTEMS MOVE QUICKLY AND REGULARLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH OF
THOSE LOOK TO OCCUR.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE AIR
WILL STILL BE COLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 ON THANKSGIVING. THE LAKE
EFFECT WILL WIND DOWN FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MOVES EAST.
WARMER AIR WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL LEAD TO SOME RAIN SATURDAY
BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND PCPN
CHANGES BACK TO SNOW. THE CORE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER
WILL STAY IN CANADA DUE TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR NORTH AGAIN BY TUESDAY.

SO...VERY CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WSW
AND WON/T DIMINISH UNTIL MID EVENING. SHRA WILL TRANSITION TO SHSN
THIS AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. VSBYS WILL
REMAIN BLO 5SM THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KLAN/KJXN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

CONTINUED THE GALE WARNING IN THE SOUTHERN 5 ZONES (SOUTH OF
PENTWATER) AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONE
(NORTH OF PENTWATER). GALES MAY BE A BIT TOUGH TO GET OFF SHORE OF
OCEANA COUNTY...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE SO LEFT IT AS IS. THE MUSKEGON
GLERL SITE HAS IT 40 KNOTS...WHILE THE PIER OB AT HOLLAND HAS IT 44
KNOTS. GALES SHOULD TONE DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
PERSISTING LIKELY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO DOWNGRADE THE GALE TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
THEN EXTEND IT OUT INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL HAS RANGED FROM 1 TO SLIGHTLY OVER 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH A SNOWPACK THAT
COMPLETELY MELTED. RIVER RESPONSES HAVE BEEN NOTABLE TODAY WITH
SHARP RISES ON SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS AND STEADY RISES ON MAIN
STEM RIVERS INCLUDING THE GRAND RIVER AND MUSKEGON RIVER. ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED YET THIS EVENING FOR EXPECTED CRESTS ABOVE
BANKFULL...CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED IMPACTS TO AREAS IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE RIVERS. THIS INCLUDES STANDING WATER ON RIVER EDGES
AND WATER SPILLING ONTO ADJACENT ROADWAYS AND PARKING LOTS.

WE ARE EXPECTING A CREST ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO BEGIN WORKING ITS
WAY DOWNSTREAM FROM EVART BY MIDWEEK. THIS MAY AFFECT AREAS ALONG
THE MUSKEGON RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF ROGERS POND AND ALSO CROTON/HARDY
DAMS. RISES BETWEEN BANKFULL AND FLOOD STAGE ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE
LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF EVART. ON THE GRAND...A CREST OF 14.5 FEET
IS FORECAST AT IONIA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS ONE FOOT ABOVE
BANKFULL. THIS CREST WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO KENT COUNTY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY OUT TO LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM AT THIS TIME.

ANY ICE THAT WAS PRESENT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD HAVE
MELTED OR BLOWN OUT WITH THE HIGH VOLUME OF WATER THE RIVERS ARE
EXPERIENCING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE TO FORM FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK GIVEN THESE HIGH FLOWS AND TEMPERATURES NOT BEING COLD
ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL ICE FORMATION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ052-058-059-
     064>067-071>074.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-050-051-056-057.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>848.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...DUKE











000
FXUS63 KGRR 241745
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1245 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

RAIN ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH A BIT IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING. INTERVALS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE ALL RAIN CHANGES TO
SNOW FAIRLY RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE AREA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING TO THE NORTHWEST
TOWARD LUDINGTON.

WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE SNOW FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THANKSGIVING AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

NO CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE AS THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO
HAVE THINGS WELL IN HAND. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ABOUT TO SURGE
INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ALONG INTERSTATE 94 FROM THE
SOUTH. GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE GRR FORECAST AREA OR ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO
ALMA LINE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS INTO THE 50-55 MPH RANGE
FROM BATTLE CREEK TO LANSING AND JACKSON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGARDING SNOW WILL BE LEAVING THE FORECAST AMOUNTS ALONE AS THEY
SEEM TO BE IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE COMING IN.
WILL LOOK AT THIS CLOSER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THOUGH. STILL
LOOKING LIKE WE SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE 21Z-00Z
TIME FRAME...BECOMING ALL SNOW PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER 00Z/7PM. A
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY OVER ABOUT OUR NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.
THAT HEAVY SNOW OCCURS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE
DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE AREA FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE DRY SLOT TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO THE FCST AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. WE ARE SEEING THE MODERATE RAIN THAT FELL LAST EVENING SHIFT
OUT OF THE AREA AS THE CORE OF THE LLJ AHEAD OF THE LOW SHIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA
BORDER...KEEPING PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SRN IL AS OF 08Z THIS
MORNING WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR THE AREA THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE WINDS ARE LIGHT RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE
CWFA. THE BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS SRN IL IS WITH A SFC WAVE THAT WILL
MOVE UP INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES BY...THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE AS THE STRONGER GRADIENT MOVES IN. MODELS
INDICATE THAT 40 KNOTS OR SO AROUND 2K FT WILL BE VERY ABLE TO BE
MIXED DOWN WITH THE GOOD MIXING DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.

WE WILL SEE ALL RAIN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM SW TO
NE AFTER 21Z AND ALMOST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TOWARD 00Z. WE WILL
SEE THE BAND OF PCPN COMING UP AHEAD OF THE SRN IL WAVE MOVE NORTH
AND ALMOST BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA. THIS
OCCURS INITIALLY WITH AN INITIAL DEFORMATION BAND FROM THE UPPER
WAVE COMING IN FROM THE SW. WE WILL THEN SEE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
WITH THE PARENT TROUGH ROTATE IN ACROSS THE AREA AND FAVOR THE NW
COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN. BY THIS TIME...IT WILL BE SNOWING AND WILL
ACCUMULATE.

THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA FROM THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TUE AFTERNOON WHEN A THIRD SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE
SAME FASHION. WE ARE LOOKING AT A PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW EVENT WITH
SOME ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES DUE TO A SW FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE. DELTA
T/S WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE DEEP OVER THE
AREA. WHAT WILL KEEP THIS FROM BEING A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT WILL
BE AN INVERSION THAT FLUCTUATES FROM 5-8K FT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG...BUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HILLS
OF CENTRAL LOWER COULD ALSO HELP TOTALS A BIT. SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE LAKESHORE WHERE WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE STRONGER.

AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PULLS OUT TUE AFTERNOON...WE WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH. THERE COULD BE SOME DECENT BANDS MOVE
THROUGH GRR TUE MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WNW BEFORE
EVERYTHING ENDS LATE TUE. AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER TOWARD GRR...HOWEVER
THE TUE MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE IMPACTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THANKSGIVING DAY... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
MINIMAL TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WILL THE CLIPPER LOW ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE SYNOPTIC SNOW POTENTIAL WITH
THAT SYSTEM NOW LOOKS QUITE LOW.

H8 AIR AROUND -15C IS STILL PROGGED TO COME INTO THE AREA VIA
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS AS H5 SHORTWAVE PIVOTS
THROUGH... SO A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND WEST AND HIGHWAY 131. SURFACE RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION
ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH AT THAT
TIME.

AFTER THANKSGIVING DAY... THE UPPER FLOW GOES FLAT/ZONAL WITH 100 KT
PACIFIC JET SHOOTING ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO
MILDER TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ACROSS SW MI TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW.

LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A NRN PLAINS LOW... SO WE MAY NEED TO BOOST
HIGHS INTO THE 40S IF THIS TREND REMAINS. THAT SAME SYSTEM DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES
EAST... BUT NOT MUCH QPF ALONG THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGING
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WSW
AND WON/T DIMINISH UNTIL MID EVENING. SHRA WILL TRANSITION TO SHSN
THIS AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO LOWER MICHGIAN. VSBYS WILL
REMAIN BLO 5SM THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KLAN/KJXN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GALES WILL DEVELOP SOUTH
OF PENTWATER LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 12 FEET DURING THE PEAK OF THE
EVENT LATER TODAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.00 TO 1.50 HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AND UP TO ANOTHER 0.50 IS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY. MANY OF THE SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES SUCH AS THE MACATAWA RIVER AT ZEELAND AND PLASTER CREEK
IN GRAND RAPIDS HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANT RISES OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
RAIN... SUGGESTING SOME IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH
WATER OVER ROADS/PARKING LOTS IN SPOTS. PLENTY OF STANDING WATER
WILL BE NOTICEABLE AS WELL TODAY IN ANY LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

ON THE LARGER RIVERS/TRIBUTARIES... RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR EXPECTED BANKFULL STAGES AT THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS: THE LOOKING GLASS RIVER AT EAGLE... SYCAMORE CREEK AT
HOLT... THE FLAT RIVER AT SMYRNA... AND THE ROGUE RIVER AT
ROCKFORD.

BASED ON THE RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN... ADDITIONAL RIVER
ADVISORIES FOR BANKFULL STAGES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS
MORNING FOR AT LEAST THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: THE PERE MARQUETTE AT
SCOTTVILLE... THE WHITE RIVER AT WHITEHALL... AND MAPLE RIVER AT
MAPLE RAPIDS... THE THORNAPPLE AT HASTINGS... AND THE GRAND RIVER AT
IONIA. THE RESPONSE AT THESE LOCATIONS IS MORE DELAYED THAN THE
ABOVE LOCATIONS... WITH BANKFULL STAGES PROBABLY NOT OCCURRING
UNTIL 1-3 DAYS FROM NOW.

NO RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGES AT THIS
POINT... BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS RAINFALL HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED WITH A
BIT MORE TO COME... AND ALL THE SNOW PACK HAS MELTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ052-058-059-
     064>067-071>074.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-050-051-056-057.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>848.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 241745
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1245 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

RAIN ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH A BIT IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING. INTERVALS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE ALL RAIN CHANGES TO
SNOW FAIRLY RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE AREA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING TO THE NORTHWEST
TOWARD LUDINGTON.

WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE SNOW FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THANKSGIVING AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

NO CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE AS THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO
HAVE THINGS WELL IN HAND. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ABOUT TO SURGE
INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ALONG INTERSTATE 94 FROM THE
SOUTH. GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE GRR FORECAST AREA OR ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO
ALMA LINE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS INTO THE 50-55 MPH RANGE
FROM BATTLE CREEK TO LANSING AND JACKSON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGARDING SNOW WILL BE LEAVING THE FORECAST AMOUNTS ALONE AS THEY
SEEM TO BE IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE COMING IN.
WILL LOOK AT THIS CLOSER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THOUGH. STILL
LOOKING LIKE WE SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE 21Z-00Z
TIME FRAME...BECOMING ALL SNOW PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER 00Z/7PM. A
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY OVER ABOUT OUR NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.
THAT HEAVY SNOW OCCURS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE
DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE AREA FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE DRY SLOT TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO THE FCST AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. WE ARE SEEING THE MODERATE RAIN THAT FELL LAST EVENING SHIFT
OUT OF THE AREA AS THE CORE OF THE LLJ AHEAD OF THE LOW SHIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA
BORDER...KEEPING PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SRN IL AS OF 08Z THIS
MORNING WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR THE AREA THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE WINDS ARE LIGHT RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE
CWFA. THE BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS SRN IL IS WITH A SFC WAVE THAT WILL
MOVE UP INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES BY...THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE AS THE STRONGER GRADIENT MOVES IN. MODELS
INDICATE THAT 40 KNOTS OR SO AROUND 2K FT WILL BE VERY ABLE TO BE
MIXED DOWN WITH THE GOOD MIXING DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.

WE WILL SEE ALL RAIN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM SW TO
NE AFTER 21Z AND ALMOST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TOWARD 00Z. WE WILL
SEE THE BAND OF PCPN COMING UP AHEAD OF THE SRN IL WAVE MOVE NORTH
AND ALMOST BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA. THIS
OCCURS INITIALLY WITH AN INITIAL DEFORMATION BAND FROM THE UPPER
WAVE COMING IN FROM THE SW. WE WILL THEN SEE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
WITH THE PARENT TROUGH ROTATE IN ACROSS THE AREA AND FAVOR THE NW
COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN. BY THIS TIME...IT WILL BE SNOWING AND WILL
ACCUMULATE.

THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA FROM THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TUE AFTERNOON WHEN A THIRD SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE
SAME FASHION. WE ARE LOOKING AT A PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW EVENT WITH
SOME ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES DUE TO A SW FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE. DELTA
T/S WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE DEEP OVER THE
AREA. WHAT WILL KEEP THIS FROM BEING A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT WILL
BE AN INVERSION THAT FLUCTUATES FROM 5-8K FT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG...BUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HILLS
OF CENTRAL LOWER COULD ALSO HELP TOTALS A BIT. SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE LAKESHORE WHERE WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE STRONGER.

AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PULLS OUT TUE AFTERNOON...WE WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH. THERE COULD BE SOME DECENT BANDS MOVE
THROUGH GRR TUE MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WNW BEFORE
EVERYTHING ENDS LATE TUE. AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER TOWARD GRR...HOWEVER
THE TUE MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE IMPACTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THANKSGIVING DAY... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
MINIMAL TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WILL THE CLIPPER LOW ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE SYNOPTIC SNOW POTENTIAL WITH
THAT SYSTEM NOW LOOKS QUITE LOW.

H8 AIR AROUND -15C IS STILL PROGGED TO COME INTO THE AREA VIA
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS AS H5 SHORTWAVE PIVOTS
THROUGH... SO A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND WEST AND HIGHWAY 131. SURFACE RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION
ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH AT THAT
TIME.

AFTER THANKSGIVING DAY... THE UPPER FLOW GOES FLAT/ZONAL WITH 100 KT
PACIFIC JET SHOOTING ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO
MILDER TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ACROSS SW MI TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW.

LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A NRN PLAINS LOW... SO WE MAY NEED TO BOOST
HIGHS INTO THE 40S IF THIS TREND REMAINS. THAT SAME SYSTEM DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES
EAST... BUT NOT MUCH QPF ALONG THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGING
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WSW
AND WON/T DIMINISH UNTIL MID EVENING. SHRA WILL TRANSITION TO SHSN
THIS AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO LOWER MICHGIAN. VSBYS WILL
REMAIN BLO 5SM THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KLAN/KJXN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GALES WILL DEVELOP SOUTH
OF PENTWATER LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 12 FEET DURING THE PEAK OF THE
EVENT LATER TODAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.00 TO 1.50 HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AND UP TO ANOTHER 0.50 IS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY. MANY OF THE SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES SUCH AS THE MACATAWA RIVER AT ZEELAND AND PLASTER CREEK
IN GRAND RAPIDS HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANT RISES OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
RAIN... SUGGESTING SOME IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH
WATER OVER ROADS/PARKING LOTS IN SPOTS. PLENTY OF STANDING WATER
WILL BE NOTICEABLE AS WELL TODAY IN ANY LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

ON THE LARGER RIVERS/TRIBUTARIES... RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR EXPECTED BANKFULL STAGES AT THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS: THE LOOKING GLASS RIVER AT EAGLE... SYCAMORE CREEK AT
HOLT... THE FLAT RIVER AT SMYRNA... AND THE ROGUE RIVER AT
ROCKFORD.

BASED ON THE RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN... ADDITIONAL RIVER
ADVISORIES FOR BANKFULL STAGES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS
MORNING FOR AT LEAST THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: THE PERE MARQUETTE AT
SCOTTVILLE... THE WHITE RIVER AT WHITEHALL... AND MAPLE RIVER AT
MAPLE RAPIDS... THE THORNAPPLE AT HASTINGS... AND THE GRAND RIVER AT
IONIA. THE RESPONSE AT THESE LOCATIONS IS MORE DELAYED THAN THE
ABOVE LOCATIONS... WITH BANKFULL STAGES PROBABLY NOT OCCURRING
UNTIL 1-3 DAYS FROM NOW.

NO RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGES AT THIS
POINT... BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS RAINFALL HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED WITH A
BIT MORE TO COME... AND ALL THE SNOW PACK HAS MELTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ052-058-059-
     064>067-071>074.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-050-051-056-057.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>848.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 241649
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

RAIN ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH A BIT IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING. INTERVALS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE ALL RAIN CHANGES TO
SNOW FAIRLY RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE AREA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING TO THE NORTHWEST
TOWARD LUDINGTON.

WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE SNOW FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THANKSGIVING AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

NO CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE AS THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO
HAVE THINGS WELL IN HAND. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ABOUT TO SURGE
INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ALONG INTERSTATE 94 FROM THE
SOUTH. GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE GRR FORECAST AREA OR ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO
ALMA LINE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS INTO THE 50-55 MPH RANGE
FROM BATTLE CREEK TO LANSING AND JACKSON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGARDING SNOW WILL BE LEAVING THE FORECAST AMOUNTS ALONE AS THEY
SEEM TO BE IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE COMING IN.
WILL LOOK AT THIS CLOSER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THOUGH. STILL
LOOKING LIKE WE SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE 21Z-00Z
TIME FRAME...BECOMING ALL SNOW PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER 00Z/7PM. A
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY OVER ABOUT OUR NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.
THAT HEAVY SNOW OCCURS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE
DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE AREA FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE DRY SLOT TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO THE FCST AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. WE ARE SEEING THE MODERATE RAIN THAT FELL LAST EVENING SHIFT
OUT OF THE AREA AS THE CORE OF THE LLJ AHEAD OF THE LOW SHIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA
BORDER...KEEPING PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SRN IL AS OF 08Z THIS
MORNING WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR THE AREA THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE WINDS ARE LIGHT RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE
CWFA. THE BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS SRN IL IS WITH A SFC WAVE THAT WILL
MOVE UP INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES BY...THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE AS THE STRONGER GRADIENT MOVES IN. MODELS
INDICATE THAT 40 KNOTS OR SO AROUND 2K FT WILL BE VERY ABLE TO BE
MIXED DOWN WITH THE GOOD MIXING DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.

WE WILL SEE ALL RAIN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM SW TO
NE AFTER 21Z AND ALMOST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TOWARD 00Z. WE WILL
SEE THE BAND OF PCPN COMING UP AHEAD OF THE SRN IL WAVE MOVE NORTH
AND ALMOST BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA. THIS
OCCURS INITIALLY WITH AN INITIAL DEFORMATION BAND FROM THE UPPER
WAVE COMING IN FROM THE SW. WE WILL THEN SEE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
WITH THE PARENT TROUGH ROTATE IN ACROSS THE AREA AND FAVOR THE NW
COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN. BY THIS TIME...IT WILL BE SNOWING AND WILL
ACCUMULATE.

THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA FROM THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TUE AFTERNOON WHEN A THIRD SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE
SAME FASHION. WE ARE LOOKING AT A PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW EVENT WITH
SOME ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES DUE TO A SW FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE. DELTA
T/S WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE DEEP OVER THE
AREA. WHAT WILL KEEP THIS FROM BEING A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT WILL
BE AN INVERSION THAT FLUCTUATES FROM 5-8K FT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG...BUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HILLS
OF CENTRAL LOWER COULD ALSO HELP TOTALS A BIT. SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE LAKESHORE WHERE WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE STRONGER.

AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PULLS OUT TUE AFTERNOON...WE WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH. THERE COULD BE SOME DECENT BANDS MOVE
THROUGH GRR TUE MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WNW BEFORE
EVERYTHING ENDS LATE TUE. AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER TOWARD GRR...HOWEVER
THE TUE MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE IMPACTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THANKSGIVING DAY... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
MINIMAL TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WILL THE CLIPPER LOW ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE SYNOPTIC SNOW POTENTIAL WITH
THAT SYSTEM NOW LOOKS QUITE LOW.

H8 AIR AROUND -15C IS STILL PROGGED TO COME INTO THE AREA VIA
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS AS H5 SHORTWAVE PIVOTS
THROUGH... SO A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND WEST AND HIGHWAY 131. SURFACE RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION
ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH AT THAT
TIME.

AFTER THANKSGIVING DAY... THE UPPER FLOW GOES FLAT/ZONAL WITH 100 KT
PACIFIC JET SHOOTING ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO
MILDER TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ACROSS SW MI TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW.

LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A NRN PLAINS LOW... SO WE MAY NEED TO BOOST
HIGHS INTO THE 40S IF THIS TREND REMAINS. THAT SAME SYSTEM DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES
EAST... BUT NOT MUCH QPF ALONG THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGING
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING THIS
MORNING. SNOW DEVELOPING AT MKG AND GRR AFTER 21Z KEEPING
CONDITIONS IFR INTO TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR. CANT RULE OUT A
TSTM THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE TAFS.

BIG INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR.
THOSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD
STILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 KTS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GALES WILL DEVELOP SOUTH
OF PENTWATER LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 12 FEET DURING THE PEAK OF THE
EVENT LATER TODAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.00 TO 1.50 HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AND UP TO ANOTHER 0.50 IS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY. MANY OF THE SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES SUCH AS THE MACATAWA RIVER AT ZEELAND AND PLASTER CREEK
IN GRAND RAPIDS HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANT RISES OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
RAIN... SUGGESTING SOME IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH
WATER OVER ROADS/PARKING LOTS IN SPOTS. PLENTY OF STANDING WATER
WILL BE NOTICEABLE AS WELL TODAY IN ANY LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

ON THE LARGER RIVERS/TRIBUTARIES... RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR EXPECTED BANKFULL STAGES AT THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS: THE LOOKING GLASS RIVER AT EAGLE... SYCAMORE CREEK AT
HOLT... THE FLAT RIVER AT SMYRNA... AND THE ROGUE RIVER AT
ROCKFORD.

BASED ON THE RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN... ADDITIONAL RIVER
ADVISORIES FOR BANKFULL STAGES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS
MORNING FOR AT LEAST THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: THE PERE MARQUETTE AT
SCOTTVILLE... THE WHITE RIVER AT WHITEHALL... AND MAPLE RIVER AT
MAPLE RAPIDS... THE THORNAPPLE AT HASTINGS... AND THE GRAND RIVER AT
IONIA. THE RESPONSE AT THESE LOCATIONS IS MORE DELAYED THAN THE
ABOVE LOCATIONS... WITH BANKFULL STAGES PROBABLY NOT OCCURRING
UNTIL 1-3 DAYS FROM NOW.

NO RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGES AT THIS
POINT... BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS RAINFALL HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED WITH A
BIT MORE TO COME... AND ALL THE SNOW PACK HAS MELTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ052-058-059-
     064>067-071>074.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-050-051-056-057.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>848.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 241649
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

RAIN ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH A BIT IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING. INTERVALS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE ALL RAIN CHANGES TO
SNOW FAIRLY RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE AREA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING TO THE NORTHWEST
TOWARD LUDINGTON.

WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE SNOW FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THANKSGIVING AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

NO CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE AS THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO
HAVE THINGS WELL IN HAND. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ABOUT TO SURGE
INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ALONG INTERSTATE 94 FROM THE
SOUTH. GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE GRR FORECAST AREA OR ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO
ALMA LINE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS INTO THE 50-55 MPH RANGE
FROM BATTLE CREEK TO LANSING AND JACKSON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGARDING SNOW WILL BE LEAVING THE FORECAST AMOUNTS ALONE AS THEY
SEEM TO BE IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE COMING IN.
WILL LOOK AT THIS CLOSER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THOUGH. STILL
LOOKING LIKE WE SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE 21Z-00Z
TIME FRAME...BECOMING ALL SNOW PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER 00Z/7PM. A
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY OVER ABOUT OUR NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.
THAT HEAVY SNOW OCCURS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE
DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE AREA FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE DRY SLOT TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO THE FCST AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. WE ARE SEEING THE MODERATE RAIN THAT FELL LAST EVENING SHIFT
OUT OF THE AREA AS THE CORE OF THE LLJ AHEAD OF THE LOW SHIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA
BORDER...KEEPING PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SRN IL AS OF 08Z THIS
MORNING WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR THE AREA THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE WINDS ARE LIGHT RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE
CWFA. THE BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS SRN IL IS WITH A SFC WAVE THAT WILL
MOVE UP INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES BY...THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE AS THE STRONGER GRADIENT MOVES IN. MODELS
INDICATE THAT 40 KNOTS OR SO AROUND 2K FT WILL BE VERY ABLE TO BE
MIXED DOWN WITH THE GOOD MIXING DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.

WE WILL SEE ALL RAIN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM SW TO
NE AFTER 21Z AND ALMOST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TOWARD 00Z. WE WILL
SEE THE BAND OF PCPN COMING UP AHEAD OF THE SRN IL WAVE MOVE NORTH
AND ALMOST BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA. THIS
OCCURS INITIALLY WITH AN INITIAL DEFORMATION BAND FROM THE UPPER
WAVE COMING IN FROM THE SW. WE WILL THEN SEE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
WITH THE PARENT TROUGH ROTATE IN ACROSS THE AREA AND FAVOR THE NW
COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN. BY THIS TIME...IT WILL BE SNOWING AND WILL
ACCUMULATE.

THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA FROM THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TUE AFTERNOON WHEN A THIRD SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE
SAME FASHION. WE ARE LOOKING AT A PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW EVENT WITH
SOME ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES DUE TO A SW FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE. DELTA
T/S WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE DEEP OVER THE
AREA. WHAT WILL KEEP THIS FROM BEING A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT WILL
BE AN INVERSION THAT FLUCTUATES FROM 5-8K FT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG...BUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HILLS
OF CENTRAL LOWER COULD ALSO HELP TOTALS A BIT. SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE LAKESHORE WHERE WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE STRONGER.

AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PULLS OUT TUE AFTERNOON...WE WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH. THERE COULD BE SOME DECENT BANDS MOVE
THROUGH GRR TUE MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WNW BEFORE
EVERYTHING ENDS LATE TUE. AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER TOWARD GRR...HOWEVER
THE TUE MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE IMPACTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THANKSGIVING DAY... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
MINIMAL TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WILL THE CLIPPER LOW ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE SYNOPTIC SNOW POTENTIAL WITH
THAT SYSTEM NOW LOOKS QUITE LOW.

H8 AIR AROUND -15C IS STILL PROGGED TO COME INTO THE AREA VIA
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS AS H5 SHORTWAVE PIVOTS
THROUGH... SO A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND WEST AND HIGHWAY 131. SURFACE RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION
ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH AT THAT
TIME.

AFTER THANKSGIVING DAY... THE UPPER FLOW GOES FLAT/ZONAL WITH 100 KT
PACIFIC JET SHOOTING ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO
MILDER TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ACROSS SW MI TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW.

LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A NRN PLAINS LOW... SO WE MAY NEED TO BOOST
HIGHS INTO THE 40S IF THIS TREND REMAINS. THAT SAME SYSTEM DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES
EAST... BUT NOT MUCH QPF ALONG THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGING
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING THIS
MORNING. SNOW DEVELOPING AT MKG AND GRR AFTER 21Z KEEPING
CONDITIONS IFR INTO TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR. CANT RULE OUT A
TSTM THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE TAFS.

BIG INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR.
THOSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD
STILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 KTS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GALES WILL DEVELOP SOUTH
OF PENTWATER LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 12 FEET DURING THE PEAK OF THE
EVENT LATER TODAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.00 TO 1.50 HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AND UP TO ANOTHER 0.50 IS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY. MANY OF THE SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES SUCH AS THE MACATAWA RIVER AT ZEELAND AND PLASTER CREEK
IN GRAND RAPIDS HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANT RISES OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
RAIN... SUGGESTING SOME IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH
WATER OVER ROADS/PARKING LOTS IN SPOTS. PLENTY OF STANDING WATER
WILL BE NOTICEABLE AS WELL TODAY IN ANY LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

ON THE LARGER RIVERS/TRIBUTARIES... RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR EXPECTED BANKFULL STAGES AT THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS: THE LOOKING GLASS RIVER AT EAGLE... SYCAMORE CREEK AT
HOLT... THE FLAT RIVER AT SMYRNA... AND THE ROGUE RIVER AT
ROCKFORD.

BASED ON THE RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN... ADDITIONAL RIVER
ADVISORIES FOR BANKFULL STAGES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS
MORNING FOR AT LEAST THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: THE PERE MARQUETTE AT
SCOTTVILLE... THE WHITE RIVER AT WHITEHALL... AND MAPLE RIVER AT
MAPLE RAPIDS... THE THORNAPPLE AT HASTINGS... AND THE GRAND RIVER AT
IONIA. THE RESPONSE AT THESE LOCATIONS IS MORE DELAYED THAN THE
ABOVE LOCATIONS... WITH BANKFULL STAGES PROBABLY NOT OCCURRING
UNTIL 1-3 DAYS FROM NOW.

NO RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGES AT THIS
POINT... BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS RAINFALL HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED WITH A
BIT MORE TO COME... AND ALL THE SNOW PACK HAS MELTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ052-058-059-
     064>067-071>074.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-050-051-056-057.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>848.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE








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