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000
FXUS63 KGRR 301726
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
126 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON OCCASION...BRINGING CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY COME
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING.
AREAS FURTHER AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERALLY SEE THE BEST
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...
COMING CLOSER TO EXPECTED TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPDATE FEATURES SOME THICKER CLOUDS FOR THE LATER
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO LANSING LINE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND OF CLOUDS SHIFTING SOUTH.
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION.
HRRR RUC STILL TRIES TO DEVELOP A COUPLE OF CELLS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE VERY LOW POPS THAT ARE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE PATTERN OF A FEW OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. OUR
CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE THE BETTER THREAT OF PCPN
WILL OCCUR. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT THIS TIME AS
DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NEVER REALLY COINCIDE WITH EACH OTHER
THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DRIFT INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH. ENOUGH FORCING WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS OVERCOMING THE RELATIVE MIN
IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE CWFA THROUGH MID MORNING WHEN THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE.

THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND A STORM WILL COME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
TOWARD THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. A SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BE PRESSING THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOW
ACROSS THE U.P. AND WILL REACH THE SE CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD PEAK
HEATING. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN AS MUCH AS 700 J/KG OF CAPE TO THE
KJXN AREA AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. A FEW STORMS WITH SOME HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO
SHOULD LIMIT A SEVERE THREAT. AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE BUILD IN AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. A WRLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND OFF OF THE
LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.

THE NEXT CHC OF SOME SHOWERS WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THU. ANOTHER FRONT/SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS TO NRN AREAS.
THIS CHC WILL SPREAD SOUTH ON THU AN INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.

THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL HOLD IN FOR THU NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI. THE FRONT TRYING TO START DROPPING DOWN ON THU
WILL PRETTY MUCH STALL OUT AND REMAIN OVER THE CWFA. THERE IS NO
REAL SUPPORT TO BRING A GOOD CONCENTRATION OF STORMS TO THE AREA
ASIDE FROM THE WEAKENING FRONT ITSELF. CAPE VALUES INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE FOR FRI WITH DEW POINTS INCHING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPS
AROUND 80 OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DIMINISHES FROM INITIALLY LIMITED
VALUES TO START WITH...SO SEVERE WX IS NOT A BIG CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS INTO THE LONG TERM...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS DEEP. THE CORE WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CANADA BY THE LONG TERM. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME GENERAL
TROUGHING THAT PERSISTS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MUCH OF THE SAME PATTERN THAT IS
PRESENT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LINGER INTO THE LONG TERM. DIURNAL
FLARE UP IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SO...SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FADING. SATURDAY/S CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
WELL BEFORE ENDING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETTER INLAND AWAY FROM
THE COOLING AFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

A FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL OUT INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IN
THE VICINITY OF OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERNMOST TERMINALS (KAZO...
KBTL... KJXN AND KLAN).

THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING IS QUITE LOW AND THERE IS NOT ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON NEAR TO MAINLY EAST OF US-131.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN PLACES THIS AM ALONG THE LAKESHORE. WEBCAMS
SHOW THIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE FOG MOVING SOUTH. WILL
HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY...EVEN THOUGH SOME AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOVE CRITERIA. MAY CANCEL IT EARLY IF THE FOG DISSIPATES QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ845>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MJS






000
FXUS63 KGRR 301726
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
126 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON OCCASION...BRINGING CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY COME
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING.
AREAS FURTHER AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERALLY SEE THE BEST
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...
COMING CLOSER TO EXPECTED TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPDATE FEATURES SOME THICKER CLOUDS FOR THE LATER
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO LANSING LINE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND OF CLOUDS SHIFTING SOUTH.
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION.
HRRR RUC STILL TRIES TO DEVELOP A COUPLE OF CELLS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE VERY LOW POPS THAT ARE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE PATTERN OF A FEW OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. OUR
CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE THE BETTER THREAT OF PCPN
WILL OCCUR. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT THIS TIME AS
DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NEVER REALLY COINCIDE WITH EACH OTHER
THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DRIFT INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH. ENOUGH FORCING WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS OVERCOMING THE RELATIVE MIN
IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE CWFA THROUGH MID MORNING WHEN THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE.

THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND A STORM WILL COME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
TOWARD THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. A SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BE PRESSING THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOW
ACROSS THE U.P. AND WILL REACH THE SE CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD PEAK
HEATING. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN AS MUCH AS 700 J/KG OF CAPE TO THE
KJXN AREA AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. A FEW STORMS WITH SOME HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO
SHOULD LIMIT A SEVERE THREAT. AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE BUILD IN AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. A WRLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND OFF OF THE
LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.

THE NEXT CHC OF SOME SHOWERS WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THU. ANOTHER FRONT/SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS TO NRN AREAS.
THIS CHC WILL SPREAD SOUTH ON THU AN INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.

THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL HOLD IN FOR THU NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI. THE FRONT TRYING TO START DROPPING DOWN ON THU
WILL PRETTY MUCH STALL OUT AND REMAIN OVER THE CWFA. THERE IS NO
REAL SUPPORT TO BRING A GOOD CONCENTRATION OF STORMS TO THE AREA
ASIDE FROM THE WEAKENING FRONT ITSELF. CAPE VALUES INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE FOR FRI WITH DEW POINTS INCHING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPS
AROUND 80 OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DIMINISHES FROM INITIALLY LIMITED
VALUES TO START WITH...SO SEVERE WX IS NOT A BIG CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS INTO THE LONG TERM...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS DEEP. THE CORE WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CANADA BY THE LONG TERM. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME GENERAL
TROUGHING THAT PERSISTS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MUCH OF THE SAME PATTERN THAT IS
PRESENT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LINGER INTO THE LONG TERM. DIURNAL
FLARE UP IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SO...SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FADING. SATURDAY/S CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
WELL BEFORE ENDING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETTER INLAND AWAY FROM
THE COOLING AFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

A FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL OUT INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IN
THE VICINITY OF OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERNMOST TERMINALS (KAZO...
KBTL... KJXN AND KLAN).

THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING IS QUITE LOW AND THERE IS NOT ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON NEAR TO MAINLY EAST OF US-131.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN PLACES THIS AM ALONG THE LAKESHORE. WEBCAMS
SHOW THIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE FOG MOVING SOUTH. WILL
HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY...EVEN THOUGH SOME AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOVE CRITERIA. MAY CANCEL IT EARLY IF THE FOG DISSIPATES QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ845>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 301626
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1230 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON OCCASION...BRINGING CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY COME
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING.
AREAS FURTHER AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERALLY SEE THE BEST
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...
COMING CLOSER TO EXPECTED TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPDATE FEATURES SOME THICKER CLOUDS FOR THE LATER
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO LANSING LINE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND OF CLOUDS SHIFTING SOUTH.
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION.
HRRR RUC STILL TRIES TO DEVELOP A COUPLE OF CELLS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE VERY LOW POPS THAT ARE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE PATTERN OF A FEW OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. OUR
CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE THE BETTER THREAT OF PCPN
WILL OCCUR. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT THIS TIME AS
DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NEVER REALLY COINCIDE WITH EACH OTHER
THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DRIFT INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH. ENOUGH FORCING WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS OVERCOMING THE RELATIVE MIN
IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE CWFA THROUGH MID MORNING WHEN THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE.

THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND A STORM WILL COME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
TOWARD THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. A SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BE PRESSING THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOW
ACROSS THE U.P. AND WILL REACH THE SE CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD PEAK
HEATING. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN AS MUCH AS 700 J/KG OF CAPE TO THE
KJXN AREA AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. A FEW STORMS WITH SOME HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO
SHOULD LIMIT A SEVERE THREAT. AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE BUILD IN AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. A WRLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND OFF OF THE
LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.

THE NEXT CHC OF SOME SHOWERS WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THU. ANOTHER FRONT/SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS TO NRN AREAS.
THIS CHC WILL SPREAD SOUTH ON THU AN INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.

THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL HOLD IN FOR THU NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI. THE FRONT TRYING TO START DROPPING DOWN ON THU
WILL PRETTY MUCH STALL OUT AND REMAIN OVER THE CWFA. THERE IS NO
REAL SUPPORT TO BRING A GOOD CONCENTRATION OF STORMS TO THE AREA
ASIDE FROM THE WEAKENING FRONT ITSELF. CAPE VALUES INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE FOR FRI WITH DEW POINTS INCHING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPS
AROUND 80 OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DIMINISHES FROM INITIALLY LIMITED
VALUES TO START WITH...SO SEVERE WX IS NOT A BIG CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS INTO THE LONG TERM...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS DEEP. THE CORE WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CANADA BY THE LONG TERM. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME GENERAL
TROUGHING THAT PERSISTS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MUCH OF THE SAME PATTERN THAT IS
PRESENT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LINGER INTO THE LONG TERM. DIURNAL
FLARE UP IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SO...SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FADING. SATURDAY/S CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
WELL BEFORE ENDING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETTER INLAND AWAY FROM
THE COOLING AFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

A FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL OUT INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IN
THE VICINITY OF OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERNMOST TERMINALS (KAZO...
KBTL... KJXN AND KLAN).

THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING IS QUITE LOW AND THERE IS NOT ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON NEAR TO MAINLY EAST OF US-131.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN PLACES THIS AM ALONG THE LAKESHORE. WEBCAMS
SHOW THIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE FOG MOVING SOUTH. WILL
HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY...EVEN THOUGH SOME AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOVE CRITERIA. MAY CANCEL IT EARLY IF THE FOG DISSIPATES QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ845>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MJS











000
FXUS63 KGRR 301626
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1230 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON OCCASION...BRINGING CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY COME
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING.
AREAS FURTHER AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERALLY SEE THE BEST
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...
COMING CLOSER TO EXPECTED TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPDATE FEATURES SOME THICKER CLOUDS FOR THE LATER
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO LANSING LINE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND OF CLOUDS SHIFTING SOUTH.
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION.
HRRR RUC STILL TRIES TO DEVELOP A COUPLE OF CELLS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE VERY LOW POPS THAT ARE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE PATTERN OF A FEW OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. OUR
CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE THE BETTER THREAT OF PCPN
WILL OCCUR. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT THIS TIME AS
DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NEVER REALLY COINCIDE WITH EACH OTHER
THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DRIFT INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH. ENOUGH FORCING WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS OVERCOMING THE RELATIVE MIN
IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE CWFA THROUGH MID MORNING WHEN THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE.

THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND A STORM WILL COME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
TOWARD THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. A SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BE PRESSING THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOW
ACROSS THE U.P. AND WILL REACH THE SE CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD PEAK
HEATING. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN AS MUCH AS 700 J/KG OF CAPE TO THE
KJXN AREA AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. A FEW STORMS WITH SOME HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO
SHOULD LIMIT A SEVERE THREAT. AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE BUILD IN AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. A WRLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND OFF OF THE
LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.

THE NEXT CHC OF SOME SHOWERS WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THU. ANOTHER FRONT/SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS TO NRN AREAS.
THIS CHC WILL SPREAD SOUTH ON THU AN INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.

THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL HOLD IN FOR THU NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI. THE FRONT TRYING TO START DROPPING DOWN ON THU
WILL PRETTY MUCH STALL OUT AND REMAIN OVER THE CWFA. THERE IS NO
REAL SUPPORT TO BRING A GOOD CONCENTRATION OF STORMS TO THE AREA
ASIDE FROM THE WEAKENING FRONT ITSELF. CAPE VALUES INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE FOR FRI WITH DEW POINTS INCHING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPS
AROUND 80 OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DIMINISHES FROM INITIALLY LIMITED
VALUES TO START WITH...SO SEVERE WX IS NOT A BIG CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS INTO THE LONG TERM...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS DEEP. THE CORE WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CANADA BY THE LONG TERM. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME GENERAL
TROUGHING THAT PERSISTS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MUCH OF THE SAME PATTERN THAT IS
PRESENT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LINGER INTO THE LONG TERM. DIURNAL
FLARE UP IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SO...SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FADING. SATURDAY/S CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
WELL BEFORE ENDING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETTER INLAND AWAY FROM
THE COOLING AFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

A FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL OUT INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IN
THE VICINITY OF OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERNMOST TERMINALS (KAZO...
KBTL... KJXN AND KLAN).

THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING IS QUITE LOW AND THERE IS NOT ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON NEAR TO MAINLY EAST OF US-131.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN PLACES THIS AM ALONG THE LAKESHORE. WEBCAMS
SHOW THIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE FOG MOVING SOUTH. WILL
HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY...EVEN THOUGH SOME AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOVE CRITERIA. MAY CANCEL IT EARLY IF THE FOG DISSIPATES QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ845>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MJS












000
FXUS63 KGRR 301428
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1028 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON OCCASION...BRINGING CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY COME
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING.
AREAS FURTHER AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERALLY SEE THE BEST
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...
COMING CLOSER TO EXPECTED TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPDATE FEATURES SOME THICKER CLOUDS FOR THE LATER
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO LANSING LINE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND OF CLOUDS SHIFTING SOUTH.
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION.
HRRR RUC STILL TRIES TO DEVELOP A COUPLE OF CELLS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE VERY LOW POPS THAT ARE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE PATTERN OF A FEW OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. OUR
CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE THE BETTER THREAT OF PCPN
WILL OCCUR. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT THIS TIME AS
DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NEVER REALLY COINCIDE WITH EACH OTHER
THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DRIFT INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH. ENOUGH FORCING WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS OVERCOMING THE RELATIVE MIN
IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE CWFA THROUGH MID MORNING WHEN THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE.

THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND A STORM WILL COME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
TOWARD THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. A SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BE PRESSING THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOW
ACROSS THE U.P. AND WILL REACH THE SE CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD PEAK
HEATING. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN AS MUCH AS 700 J/KG OF CAPE TO THE
KJXN AREA AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. A FEW STORMS WITH SOME HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO
SHOULD LIMIT A SEVERE THREAT. AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE BUILD IN AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. A WRLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND OFF OF THE
LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.

THE NEXT CHC OF SOME SHOWERS WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THU. ANOTHER FRONT/SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS TO NRN AREAS.
THIS CHC WILL SPREAD SOUTH ON THU AN INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.

THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL HOLD IN FOR THU NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI. THE FRONT TRYING TO START DROPPING DOWN ON THU
WILL PRETTY MUCH STALL OUT AND REMAIN OVER THE CWFA. THERE IS NO
REAL SUPPORT TO BRING A GOOD CONCENTRATION OF STORMS TO THE AREA
ASIDE FROM THE WEAKENING FRONT ITSELF. CAPE VALUES INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE FOR FRI WITH DEW POINTS INCHING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPS
AROUND 80 OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DIMINISHES FROM INITIALLY LIMITED
VALUES TO START WITH...SO SEVERE WX IS NOT A BIG CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS INTO THE LONG TERM...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS DEEP. THE CORE WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CANADA BY THE LONG TERM. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME GENERAL
TROUGHING THAT PERSISTS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MUCH OF THE SAME PATTERN THAT IS
PRESENT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LINGER INTO THE LONG TERM. DIURNAL
FLARE UP IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SO...SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FADING. SATURDAY/S CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
WELL BEFORE ENDING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETTER INLAND AWAY FROM
THE COOLING AFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

A FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL OUT INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FOG WILL LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z TO 16Z. LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT PRESENT AT KLAN. THIS SHOULD LIFT
FAIRLY QUICK GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE AREAL
EXTENT OF THE STORMS TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...SO ONLY HAVE VCSH
MENTIONED AT THIS POINT.

AFTER THE MORNING FOG...GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN PLACES THIS AM ALONG THE LAKESHORE. WEBCAMS
SHOW THIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE FOG MOVING SOUTH. WILL
HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY...EVEN THOUGH SOME AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOVE CRITERIA. MAY CANCEL IT EARLY IF THE FOG DISSIPATES QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ845>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MJS









000
FXUS63 KGRR 301206
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
806 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON OCCASION...BRINGING CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY COME
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING.
AREAS FURTHER AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERALLY SEE THE BEST
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...
COMING CLOSER TO EXPECTED TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE PATTERN OF A FEW OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. OUR
CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE THE BETTER THREAT OF PCPN
WILL OCCUR. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT THIS TIME AS
DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NEVER REALLY COINCIDE WITH EACH OTHER
THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DRIFT INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH. ENOUGH FORCING WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS OVERCOMING THE RELATIVE MIN
IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE CWFA THROUGH MID MORNING WHEN THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE.

THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND A STORM WILL COME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
TOWARD THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. A SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BE PRESSING THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOW
ACROSS THE U.P. AND WILL REACH THE SE CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD PEAK
HEATING. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN AS MUCH AS 700 J/KG OF CAPE TO THE
KJXN AREA AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. A FEW STORMS WITH SOME HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO
SHOULD LIMIT A SEVERE THREAT. AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE BUILD IN AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. A WRLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND OFF OF THE
LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.

THE NEXT CHC OF SOME SHOWERS WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THU. ANOTHER FRONT/SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS TO NRN AREAS.
THIS CHC WILL SPREAD SOUTH ON THU AN INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.

THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL HOLD IN FOR THU NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI. THE FRONT TRYING TO START DROPPING DOWN ON THU
WILL PRETTY MUCH STALL OUT AND REMAIN OVER THE CWFA. THERE IS NO
REAL SUPPORT TO BRING A GOOD CONCENTRATION OF STORMS TO THE AREA
ASIDE FROM THE WEAKENING FRONT ITSELF. CAPE VALUES INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE FOR FRI WITH DEW POINTS INCHING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPS
AROUND 80 OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DIMINISHES FROM INITIALLY LIMITED
VALUES TO START WITH...SO SEVERE WX IS NOT A BIG CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS INTO THE LONG TERM...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS DEEP. THE CORE WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CANADA BY THE LONG TERM. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME GENERAL
TROUGHING THAT PERSISTS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MUCH OF THE SAME PATTERN THAT IS
PRESENT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LINGER INTO THE LONG TERM. DIURNAL
FLARE UP IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SO...SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FADING. SATURDAY/S CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
WELL BEFORE ENDING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETTER INLAND AWAY FROM
THE COOLING AFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

A FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL OUT INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FOG WILL LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z TO 16Z. LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT PRESENT AT KLAN. THIS SHOULD LIFT
FAIRLY QUICK GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE AREAL
EXTENT OF THE STORMS TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...SO ONLY HAVE VCSH
MENTIONED AT THIS POINT.

AFTER THE MORNING FOG...GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH HAVEN NORTH UP THE SHORE TO MANISTEE. WEBCAMS
SHOW THICK FOG AT LEAST AT HOLLAND AND MUSKEGON WITH OTHER CAMS
SHOWING SOME FOG AS WELL. THE COLD WATER THAT HAS BEEN BROUGHT TO
THE SURFACE FROM RECENT WAVE EVENTS HAS AIDED IN CREATING THICK
FOG. EXPECTING IT TO LIFT SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BUT WANT TO GIVE A BUFFER INTO THE
AFTERNOON JUST IN CASE IT HOLDS ON. WE CAN ALWAYS DROP IT EARLY IF
IT LIFTS QUICKER. FOG WILL LIKELY REMAIN A THREAT...AT LEAST OFF AND
ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE COLD WATER PERSISTS AND DEW
POINTS GRADUALLY INCREASE.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL NOT REALLY BE AN ISSUE...LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF
THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY 15 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ845>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...DUKE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 301206
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
806 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON OCCASION...BRINGING CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY COME
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING.
AREAS FURTHER AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERALLY SEE THE BEST
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...
COMING CLOSER TO EXPECTED TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE PATTERN OF A FEW OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. OUR
CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE THE BETTER THREAT OF PCPN
WILL OCCUR. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT THIS TIME AS
DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NEVER REALLY COINCIDE WITH EACH OTHER
THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DRIFT INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH. ENOUGH FORCING WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS OVERCOMING THE RELATIVE MIN
IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE CWFA THROUGH MID MORNING WHEN THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE.

THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND A STORM WILL COME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
TOWARD THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. A SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BE PRESSING THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOW
ACROSS THE U.P. AND WILL REACH THE SE CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD PEAK
HEATING. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN AS MUCH AS 700 J/KG OF CAPE TO THE
KJXN AREA AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. A FEW STORMS WITH SOME HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO
SHOULD LIMIT A SEVERE THREAT. AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE BUILD IN AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. A WRLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND OFF OF THE
LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.

THE NEXT CHC OF SOME SHOWERS WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THU. ANOTHER FRONT/SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS TO NRN AREAS.
THIS CHC WILL SPREAD SOUTH ON THU AN INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.

THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL HOLD IN FOR THU NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI. THE FRONT TRYING TO START DROPPING DOWN ON THU
WILL PRETTY MUCH STALL OUT AND REMAIN OVER THE CWFA. THERE IS NO
REAL SUPPORT TO BRING A GOOD CONCENTRATION OF STORMS TO THE AREA
ASIDE FROM THE WEAKENING FRONT ITSELF. CAPE VALUES INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE FOR FRI WITH DEW POINTS INCHING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPS
AROUND 80 OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DIMINISHES FROM INITIALLY LIMITED
VALUES TO START WITH...SO SEVERE WX IS NOT A BIG CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS INTO THE LONG TERM...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS DEEP. THE CORE WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CANADA BY THE LONG TERM. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME GENERAL
TROUGHING THAT PERSISTS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MUCH OF THE SAME PATTERN THAT IS
PRESENT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LINGER INTO THE LONG TERM. DIURNAL
FLARE UP IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SO...SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FADING. SATURDAY/S CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
WELL BEFORE ENDING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETTER INLAND AWAY FROM
THE COOLING AFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

A FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL OUT INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FOG WILL LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z TO 16Z. LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT PRESENT AT KLAN. THIS SHOULD LIFT
FAIRLY QUICK GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE AREAL
EXTENT OF THE STORMS TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...SO ONLY HAVE VCSH
MENTIONED AT THIS POINT.

AFTER THE MORNING FOG...GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH HAVEN NORTH UP THE SHORE TO MANISTEE. WEBCAMS
SHOW THICK FOG AT LEAST AT HOLLAND AND MUSKEGON WITH OTHER CAMS
SHOWING SOME FOG AS WELL. THE COLD WATER THAT HAS BEEN BROUGHT TO
THE SURFACE FROM RECENT WAVE EVENTS HAS AIDED IN CREATING THICK
FOG. EXPECTING IT TO LIFT SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BUT WANT TO GIVE A BUFFER INTO THE
AFTERNOON JUST IN CASE IT HOLDS ON. WE CAN ALWAYS DROP IT EARLY IF
IT LIFTS QUICKER. FOG WILL LIKELY REMAIN A THREAT...AT LEAST OFF AND
ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE COLD WATER PERSISTS AND DEW
POINTS GRADUALLY INCREASE.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL NOT REALLY BE AN ISSUE...LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF
THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY 15 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ845>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...DUKE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 301101
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
701 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON OCCASION...BRINGING CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY COME
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING.
AREAS FURTHER AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERALLY SEE THE BEST
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...
COMING CLOSER TO EXPECTED TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE PATTERN OF A FEW OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. OUR
CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE THE BETTER THREAT OF PCPN
WILL OCCUR. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT THIS TIME AS
DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NEVER REALLY COINCIDE WITH EACH OTHER
THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DRIFT INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH. ENOUGH FORCING WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS OVERCOMING THE RELATIVE MIN
IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE CWFA THROUGH MID MORNING WHEN THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE.

THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND A STORM WILL COME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
TOWARD THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. A SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BE PRESSING THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOW
ACROSS THE U.P. AND WILL REACH THE SE CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD PEAK
HEATING. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN AS MUCH AS 700 J/KG OF CAPE TO THE
KJXN AREA AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. A FEW STORMS WITH SOME HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO
SHOULD LIMIT A SEVERE THREAT. AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE BUILD IN AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. A WRLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND OFF OF THE
LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.

THE NEXT CHC OF SOME SHOWERS WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THU. ANOTHER FRONT/SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS TO NRN AREAS.
THIS CHC WILL SPREAD SOUTH ON THU AN INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.

THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL HOLD IN FOR THU NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI. THE FRONT TRYING TO START DROPPING DOWN ON THU
WILL PRETTY MUCH STALL OUT AND REMAIN OVER THE CWFA. THERE IS NO
REAL SUPPORT TO BRING A GOOD CONCENTRATION OF STORMS TO THE AREA
ASIDE FROM THE WEAKENING FRONT ITSELF. CAPE VALUES INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE FOR FRI WITH DEW POINTS INCHING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPS
AROUND 80 OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DIMINISHES FROM INITIALLY LIMITED
VALUES TO START WITH...SO SEVERE WX IS NOT A BIG CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS INTO THE LONG TERM...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS DEEP. THE CORE WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CANADA BY THE LONG TERM. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME GENERAL
TROUGHING THAT PERSISTS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MUCH OF THE SAME PATTERN THAT IS
PRESENT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LINGER INTO THE LONG TERM. DIURNAL
FLARE UP IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SO...SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FADING. SATURDAY/S CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
WELL BEFORE ENDING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETTER INLAND AWAY FROM
THE COOLING AFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

A FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL OUT INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN MY THINKING EXCEPT I ADDED SOME MVFR MIST IN
THE TAFS AROUND SUNRISE AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE GETTING CLOSE THE DEW POINT. THE SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA SHOULD BRING A BAND OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE CWA TOWARD
MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT LAST LONG.... ONCE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. ONLY A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH HAVEN NORTH UP THE SHORE TO MANISTEE. WEBCAMS
SHOW THICK FOG AT LEAST AT HOLLAND AND MUSKEGON WITH OTHER CAMS
SHOWING SOME FOG AS WELL. THE COLD WATER THAT HAS BEEN BROUGHT TO
THE SURFACE FROM RECENT WAVE EVENTS HAS AIDED IN CREATING THICK
FOG. EXPECTING IT TO LIFT SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BUT WANT TO GIVE A BUFFER INTO THE
AFTERNOON JUST IN CASE IT HOLDS ON. WE CAN ALWAYS DROP IT EARLY IF
IT LIFTS QUICKER. FOG WILL LIKELY REMAIN A THREAT...AT LEAST OFF AND
ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE COLD WATER PERSISTS AND DEW
POINTS GRADUALLY INCREASE.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL NOT REALLY BE AN ISSUE...LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF
THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY 15 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ845>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...DUKE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 301101
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
701 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON OCCASION...BRINGING CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY COME
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING.
AREAS FURTHER AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERALLY SEE THE BEST
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...
COMING CLOSER TO EXPECTED TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE PATTERN OF A FEW OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. OUR
CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE THE BETTER THREAT OF PCPN
WILL OCCUR. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT THIS TIME AS
DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NEVER REALLY COINCIDE WITH EACH OTHER
THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DRIFT INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH. ENOUGH FORCING WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS OVERCOMING THE RELATIVE MIN
IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE CWFA THROUGH MID MORNING WHEN THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE.

THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND A STORM WILL COME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
TOWARD THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. A SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BE PRESSING THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOW
ACROSS THE U.P. AND WILL REACH THE SE CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD PEAK
HEATING. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN AS MUCH AS 700 J/KG OF CAPE TO THE
KJXN AREA AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. A FEW STORMS WITH SOME HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO
SHOULD LIMIT A SEVERE THREAT. AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE BUILD IN AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. A WRLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND OFF OF THE
LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.

THE NEXT CHC OF SOME SHOWERS WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THU. ANOTHER FRONT/SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS TO NRN AREAS.
THIS CHC WILL SPREAD SOUTH ON THU AN INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.

THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL HOLD IN FOR THU NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI. THE FRONT TRYING TO START DROPPING DOWN ON THU
WILL PRETTY MUCH STALL OUT AND REMAIN OVER THE CWFA. THERE IS NO
REAL SUPPORT TO BRING A GOOD CONCENTRATION OF STORMS TO THE AREA
ASIDE FROM THE WEAKENING FRONT ITSELF. CAPE VALUES INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE FOR FRI WITH DEW POINTS INCHING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPS
AROUND 80 OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DIMINISHES FROM INITIALLY LIMITED
VALUES TO START WITH...SO SEVERE WX IS NOT A BIG CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS INTO THE LONG TERM...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS DEEP. THE CORE WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CANADA BY THE LONG TERM. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME GENERAL
TROUGHING THAT PERSISTS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MUCH OF THE SAME PATTERN THAT IS
PRESENT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LINGER INTO THE LONG TERM. DIURNAL
FLARE UP IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SO...SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FADING. SATURDAY/S CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
WELL BEFORE ENDING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETTER INLAND AWAY FROM
THE COOLING AFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

A FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL OUT INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN MY THINKING EXCEPT I ADDED SOME MVFR MIST IN
THE TAFS AROUND SUNRISE AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE GETTING CLOSE THE DEW POINT. THE SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA SHOULD BRING A BAND OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE CWA TOWARD
MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT LAST LONG.... ONCE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. ONLY A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH HAVEN NORTH UP THE SHORE TO MANISTEE. WEBCAMS
SHOW THICK FOG AT LEAST AT HOLLAND AND MUSKEGON WITH OTHER CAMS
SHOWING SOME FOG AS WELL. THE COLD WATER THAT HAS BEEN BROUGHT TO
THE SURFACE FROM RECENT WAVE EVENTS HAS AIDED IN CREATING THICK
FOG. EXPECTING IT TO LIFT SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BUT WANT TO GIVE A BUFFER INTO THE
AFTERNOON JUST IN CASE IT HOLDS ON. WE CAN ALWAYS DROP IT EARLY IF
IT LIFTS QUICKER. FOG WILL LIKELY REMAIN A THREAT...AT LEAST OFF AND
ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE COLD WATER PERSISTS AND DEW
POINTS GRADUALLY INCREASE.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL NOT REALLY BE AN ISSUE...LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF
THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY 15 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ845>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...DUKE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 300729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON OCCASION...BRINGING CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY COME
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING.
AREAS FURTHER AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERALLY SEE THE BEST
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...
COMING CLOSER TO EXPECTED TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE PATTERN OF A FEW OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. OUR
CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE THE BETTER THREAT OF PCPN
WILL OCCUR. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT THIS TIME AS
DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NEVER REALLY COINCIDE WITH EACH OTHER
THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DRIFT INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH. ENOUGH FORCING WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS OVERCOMING THE RELATIVE MIN
IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE CWFA THROUGH MID MORNING WHEN THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE.

THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND A STORM WILL COME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
TOWARD THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. A SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BE PRESSING THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOW
ACROSS THE U.P. AND WILL REACH THE SE CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD PEAK
HEATING. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN AS MUCH AS 700 J/KG OF CAPE TO THE
KJXN AREA AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. A FEW STORMS WITH SOME HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO
SHOULD LIMIT A SEVERE THREAT. AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE BUILD IN AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. A WRLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND OFF OF THE
LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.

THE NEXT CHC OF SOME SHOWERS WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THU. ANOTHER FRONT/SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS TO NRN AREAS.
THIS CHC WILL SPREAD SOUTH ON THU AN INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.

THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL HOLD IN FOR THU NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI. THE FRONT TRYING TO START DROPPING DOWN ON THU
WILL PRETTY MUCH STALL OUT AND REMAIN OVER THE CWFA. THERE IS NO
REAL SUPPORT TO BRING A GOOD CONCENTRATION OF STORMS TO THE AREA
ASIDE FROM THE WEAKENING FRONT ITSELF. CAPE VALUES INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE FOR FRI WITH DEW POINTS INCHING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPS
AROUND 80 OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DIMINISHES FROM INITIALLY LIMITED
VALUES TO START WITH...SO SEVERE WX IS NOT A BIG CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS INTO THE LONG TERM...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS DEEP. THE CORE WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CANADA BY THE LONG TERM. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME GENERAL
TROUGHING THAT PERSISTS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MUCH OF THE SAME PATTERN THAT IS
PRESENT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LINGER INTO THE LONG TERM. DIURNAL
FLARE UP IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SO...SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FADING. SATURDAY/S CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
WELL BEFORE ENDING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETTER INLAND AWAY FROM
THE COOLING AFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

A FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL OUT INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN MY THINKING EXCEPT I ADDED SOME MVFR MIST IN
THE TAFS AROUND SUNRISE AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE GETTING CLOSE THE DEW POINT. THE SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA SHOULD BRING A BAND OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE CWA TOWARD
MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT LAST LONG.... ONCE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. ONLY A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WINDS AND WAVES WILL NOT REALLY BE AN ISSUE...LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF
THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY 15 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONE THING THAT COULD IMPACT MARINERS
A BIT WILL BE AREAS OF FOG OUT OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THE COLDER
WATERS THAT HAVE SHOWN UP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO
UPWELLING ARE COMBINING WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS TO PRODUCE AREAS
OF FOG. THIS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY WHEN WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...NJJ






000
FXUS63 KGRR 300729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON OCCASION...BRINGING CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY COME
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING.
AREAS FURTHER AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERALLY SEE THE BEST
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...
COMING CLOSER TO EXPECTED TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE PATTERN OF A FEW OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. OUR
CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE THE BETTER THREAT OF PCPN
WILL OCCUR. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT THIS TIME AS
DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NEVER REALLY COINCIDE WITH EACH OTHER
THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DRIFT INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH. ENOUGH FORCING WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS OVERCOMING THE RELATIVE MIN
IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE CWFA THROUGH MID MORNING WHEN THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE.

THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND A STORM WILL COME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
TOWARD THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. A SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BE PRESSING THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOW
ACROSS THE U.P. AND WILL REACH THE SE CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD PEAK
HEATING. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN AS MUCH AS 700 J/KG OF CAPE TO THE
KJXN AREA AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. A FEW STORMS WITH SOME HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO
SHOULD LIMIT A SEVERE THREAT. AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE BUILD IN AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. A WRLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND OFF OF THE
LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.

THE NEXT CHC OF SOME SHOWERS WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THU. ANOTHER FRONT/SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS TO NRN AREAS.
THIS CHC WILL SPREAD SOUTH ON THU AN INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.

THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL HOLD IN FOR THU NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI. THE FRONT TRYING TO START DROPPING DOWN ON THU
WILL PRETTY MUCH STALL OUT AND REMAIN OVER THE CWFA. THERE IS NO
REAL SUPPORT TO BRING A GOOD CONCENTRATION OF STORMS TO THE AREA
ASIDE FROM THE WEAKENING FRONT ITSELF. CAPE VALUES INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE FOR FRI WITH DEW POINTS INCHING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPS
AROUND 80 OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DIMINISHES FROM INITIALLY LIMITED
VALUES TO START WITH...SO SEVERE WX IS NOT A BIG CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS INTO THE LONG TERM...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS DEEP. THE CORE WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CANADA BY THE LONG TERM. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME GENERAL
TROUGHING THAT PERSISTS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MUCH OF THE SAME PATTERN THAT IS
PRESENT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LINGER INTO THE LONG TERM. DIURNAL
FLARE UP IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SO...SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FADING. SATURDAY/S CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
WELL BEFORE ENDING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETTER INLAND AWAY FROM
THE COOLING AFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

A FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL OUT INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN MY THINKING EXCEPT I ADDED SOME MVFR MIST IN
THE TAFS AROUND SUNRISE AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE GETTING CLOSE THE DEW POINT. THE SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA SHOULD BRING A BAND OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE CWA TOWARD
MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT LAST LONG.... ONCE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. ONLY A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WINDS AND WAVES WILL NOT REALLY BE AN ISSUE...LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF
THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY 15 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONE THING THAT COULD IMPACT MARINERS
A BIT WILL BE AREAS OF FOG OUT OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THE COLDER
WATERS THAT HAVE SHOWN UP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO
UPWELLING ARE COMBINING WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS TO PRODUCE AREAS
OF FOG. THIS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY WHEN WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 300322
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1122 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL LINGER A FEW MORE DAYS BUT WILL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
THIS WEEK... PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. WE HAVE JUST PULLED OUT
THE THUNDER MENTION FROM THE FCST AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS LOST
AS EXPECTED. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF HWY 131
UNDERNEATH UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL ALOFT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET WITH AN OVERALL EASTWARD DRIFT BEFORE DISSIPATING.

WHILE THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN SPARED OF ANY DIURNAL
ACTIVITY DUE TO THE STABLE ONSHORE FLOW... THIS AREA IS STILL AT
RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AFTER 7-8 PM THIS EVENING AS THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LK MI IN A DECAYING MODE.

THE PROBABILITY/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS
LESS THAN TODAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR... DECREASING WEST AND NORTH OF GRR.

WHILE THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WILL CERTAINLY BE LESS
LATE AT NIGHT INTO MID MORNING OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS... FEEL SOME LOW
POPS MAY STILL BE WARRANTED OUTSIDE OF PK HEATING TIME. MODELS/WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES ROTATING
AROUND THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX. ANY ONE OF THESE FEATURES COULD STILL
TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT ANY TIME AS THEY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION... EVEN WITHOUT THE DIURNAL COMPONENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL THE SAME GENERAL WX PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURING A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OUT
WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN
SPITE OF THAT.

INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH COLD AIR ALOFT UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY LEAD TO A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL STILL BE SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND POOL OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD SHIFT NE TO QUEBEC. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT TO MUCH CHANGE IN MY THINKING EXPECT I ADDED SOME MVFR MIST IN
THE TAFS AROUND SUNRISE AS WINDS AREA LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE GETTING CLOSE THE DEW POINT. THE SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA SHOULD BRING A BAND OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE CWA TOWARD
MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT LAST LONG.... ONCE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. ONLY A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TWO NORTH FLOW UPWELLING/OVERTURNING EVENTS IN THE LAST WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN VERY COLD WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST PER BUOY READINGS. THIS IS ACTUALLY RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG AS SHOWN ON THE MUSKEGON WEB CAM DESPITE A COOL AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

SFC DEW PTS HOWEVER ARE IN THE MID 50S WHICH OVER 40 DEGREE WATER
WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS IS PROMOTING SOME FOG. HAVE ADDED THIS
THREAT TO THE NEARSHORE FCST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PERIODS OF
STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY MIX THE FOG
OUT AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE FOG IS
LOW... SO WILL NOT ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/WAVES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH
WOULD NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 300322
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1122 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL LINGER A FEW MORE DAYS BUT WILL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
THIS WEEK... PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. WE HAVE JUST PULLED OUT
THE THUNDER MENTION FROM THE FCST AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS LOST
AS EXPECTED. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF HWY 131
UNDERNEATH UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL ALOFT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET WITH AN OVERALL EASTWARD DRIFT BEFORE DISSIPATING.

WHILE THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN SPARED OF ANY DIURNAL
ACTIVITY DUE TO THE STABLE ONSHORE FLOW... THIS AREA IS STILL AT
RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AFTER 7-8 PM THIS EVENING AS THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LK MI IN A DECAYING MODE.

THE PROBABILITY/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS
LESS THAN TODAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR... DECREASING WEST AND NORTH OF GRR.

WHILE THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WILL CERTAINLY BE LESS
LATE AT NIGHT INTO MID MORNING OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS... FEEL SOME LOW
POPS MAY STILL BE WARRANTED OUTSIDE OF PK HEATING TIME. MODELS/WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES ROTATING
AROUND THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX. ANY ONE OF THESE FEATURES COULD STILL
TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT ANY TIME AS THEY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION... EVEN WITHOUT THE DIURNAL COMPONENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL THE SAME GENERAL WX PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURING A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OUT
WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN
SPITE OF THAT.

INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH COLD AIR ALOFT UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY LEAD TO A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL STILL BE SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND POOL OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD SHIFT NE TO QUEBEC. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT TO MUCH CHANGE IN MY THINKING EXPECT I ADDED SOME MVFR MIST IN
THE TAFS AROUND SUNRISE AS WINDS AREA LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE GETTING CLOSE THE DEW POINT. THE SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA SHOULD BRING A BAND OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE CWA TOWARD
MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT LAST LONG.... ONCE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. ONLY A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TWO NORTH FLOW UPWELLING/OVERTURNING EVENTS IN THE LAST WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN VERY COLD WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST PER BUOY READINGS. THIS IS ACTUALLY RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG AS SHOWN ON THE MUSKEGON WEB CAM DESPITE A COOL AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

SFC DEW PTS HOWEVER ARE IN THE MID 50S WHICH OVER 40 DEGREE WATER
WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS IS PROMOTING SOME FOG. HAVE ADDED THIS
THREAT TO THE NEARSHORE FCST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PERIODS OF
STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY MIX THE FOG
OUT AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE FOG IS
LOW... SO WILL NOT ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/WAVES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH
WOULD NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 300120
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
920 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL LINGER A FEW MORE DAYS BUT WILL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
THIS WEEK... PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. WE HAVE JUST PULLED OUT
THE THUNDER MENTION FROM THE FCST AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS LOST
AS EXPECTED. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF HWY 131
UNDERNEATH UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL ALOFT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET WITH AN OVERALL EASTWARD DRIFT BEFORE DISSIPATING.

WHILE THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN SPARED OF ANY DIURNAL
ACTIVITY DUE TO THE STABLE ONSHORE FLOW... THIS AREA IS STILL AT
RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AFTER 7-8 PM THIS EVENING AS THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LK MI IN A DECAYING MODE.

THE PROBABILITY/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS
LESS THAN TODAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR... DECREASING WEST AND NORTH OF GRR.

WHILE THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WILL CERTAINLY BE LESS
LATE AT NIGHT INTO MID MORNING OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS... FEEL SOME LOW
POPS MAY STILL BE WARRANTED OUTSIDE OF PK HEATING TIME. MODELS/WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES ROTATING
AROUND THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX. ANY ONE OF THESE FEATURES COULD STILL
TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT ANY TIME AS THEY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION... EVEN WITHOUT THE DIURNAL COMPONENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL THE SAME GENERAL WX PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURING A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OUT
WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN
SPITE OF THAT.

INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH COLD AIR ALOFT UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY LEAD TO A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL STILL BE SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND POOL OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD SHIFT NE TO QUEBEC. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 816 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE BOTTOM LINE TO THE FORECAST IS VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL MOSTLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TOO.

THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
OUT OF THE LANSING AND JACKSON AREA AND THE CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN...WHILE MAKING IT TO MID-LAKE DOES NOT APPEAR AS
THROUGH IT WILL GET MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN IT ALREADY HAS. ALL OF
THAT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES BY 02Z FOR SURE. I PUT VFR
CIGS IN THE TAFS SINCE THERE AS THERE IS A SHORTWAVE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THAT SHOULD BRING THOSE VFR CIGS IN AS THIS MOVES INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN BY 06Z. SO WHILE CURRENTLY THERE ARE NO CLOUDS WITH
CEILING BELOW 12000 FT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO ACTUALLY
MOVE IN I DO BELIEVE THEY WILL BY 06Z OR SO. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD
BE THROUGH THE AREA BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THAT WOULD DEAL TO
CLEARING SKIES BY LATE MORNING. THERE IS NOT NEARLY AS MUCH
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THERE WAS TODAY SO I DO NOT
THINK WE WILL BE SEEING CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LIKE WE DID
TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TWO NORTH FLOW UPWELLING/OVERTURNING EVENTS IN THE LAST WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN VERY COLD WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST PER BUOY READINGS. THIS IS ACTUALLY RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG AS SHOWN ON THE MUSKEGON WEB CAM DESPITE A COOL AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

SFC DEW PTS HOWEVER ARE IN THE MID 50S WHICH OVER 40 DEGREE WATER
WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS IS PROMOTING SOME FOG. HAVE ADDED THIS
THREAT TO THE NEARSHORE FCST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PERIODS OF
STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY MIX THE FOG
OUT AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE FOG IS
LOW... SO WILL NOT ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/WAVES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH
WOULD NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 300120
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
920 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL LINGER A FEW MORE DAYS BUT WILL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
THIS WEEK... PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. WE HAVE JUST PULLED OUT
THE THUNDER MENTION FROM THE FCST AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS LOST
AS EXPECTED. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF HWY 131
UNDERNEATH UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL ALOFT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET WITH AN OVERALL EASTWARD DRIFT BEFORE DISSIPATING.

WHILE THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN SPARED OF ANY DIURNAL
ACTIVITY DUE TO THE STABLE ONSHORE FLOW... THIS AREA IS STILL AT
RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AFTER 7-8 PM THIS EVENING AS THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LK MI IN A DECAYING MODE.

THE PROBABILITY/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS
LESS THAN TODAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR... DECREASING WEST AND NORTH OF GRR.

WHILE THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WILL CERTAINLY BE LESS
LATE AT NIGHT INTO MID MORNING OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS... FEEL SOME LOW
POPS MAY STILL BE WARRANTED OUTSIDE OF PK HEATING TIME. MODELS/WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES ROTATING
AROUND THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX. ANY ONE OF THESE FEATURES COULD STILL
TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT ANY TIME AS THEY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION... EVEN WITHOUT THE DIURNAL COMPONENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL THE SAME GENERAL WX PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURING A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OUT
WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN
SPITE OF THAT.

INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH COLD AIR ALOFT UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY LEAD TO A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL STILL BE SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND POOL OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD SHIFT NE TO QUEBEC. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 816 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE BOTTOM LINE TO THE FORECAST IS VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL MOSTLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TOO.

THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
OUT OF THE LANSING AND JACKSON AREA AND THE CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN...WHILE MAKING IT TO MID-LAKE DOES NOT APPEAR AS
THROUGH IT WILL GET MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN IT ALREADY HAS. ALL OF
THAT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES BY 02Z FOR SURE. I PUT VFR
CIGS IN THE TAFS SINCE THERE AS THERE IS A SHORTWAVE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THAT SHOULD BRING THOSE VFR CIGS IN AS THIS MOVES INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN BY 06Z. SO WHILE CURRENTLY THERE ARE NO CLOUDS WITH
CEILING BELOW 12000 FT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO ACTUALLY
MOVE IN I DO BELIEVE THEY WILL BY 06Z OR SO. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD
BE THROUGH THE AREA BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THAT WOULD DEAL TO
CLEARING SKIES BY LATE MORNING. THERE IS NOT NEARLY AS MUCH
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THERE WAS TODAY SO I DO NOT
THINK WE WILL BE SEEING CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LIKE WE DID
TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TWO NORTH FLOW UPWELLING/OVERTURNING EVENTS IN THE LAST WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN VERY COLD WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST PER BUOY READINGS. THIS IS ACTUALLY RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG AS SHOWN ON THE MUSKEGON WEB CAM DESPITE A COOL AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

SFC DEW PTS HOWEVER ARE IN THE MID 50S WHICH OVER 40 DEGREE WATER
WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS IS PROMOTING SOME FOG. HAVE ADDED THIS
THREAT TO THE NEARSHORE FCST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PERIODS OF
STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY MIX THE FOG
OUT AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE FOG IS
LOW... SO WILL NOT ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/WAVES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH
WOULD NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 300016
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
816 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL LINGER A FEW MORE DAYS BUT WILL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
THIS WEEK... PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF HWY 131
UNDERNEATH UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL ALOFT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET WITH AN OVERALL EASTWARD DRIFT BEFORE DISSIPATING.

WHILE THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN SPARED OF ANY DIURNAL
ACTIVITY DUE TO THE STABLE ONSHORE FLOW... THIS AREA IS STILL AT
RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AFTER 7-8 PM THIS EVENING AS THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LK MI IN A DECAYING MODE.

THE PROBABILITY/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS
LESS THAN TODAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR... DECREASING WEST AND NORTH OF GRR.

WHILE THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WILL CERTAINLY BE LESS
LATE AT NIGHT INTO MID MORNING OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS... FEEL SOME LOW
POPS MAY STILL BE WARRANTED OUTSIDE OF PK HEATING TIME. MODELS/WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES ROTATING
AROUND THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX. ANY ONE OF THESE FEATURES COULD STILL
TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT ANY TIME AS THEY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION... EVEN WITHOUT THE DIURNAL COMPONENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL THE SAME GENERAL WX PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURING A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OUT
WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN
SPITE OF THAT.

INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH COLD AIR ALOFT UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY LEAD TO A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL STILL BE SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND POOL OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD SHIFT NE TO QUEBEC. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 816 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE BOTTOM LINE TO THE FORECAST IS VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL MOSTLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TOO.

THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
OUT OF THE LANSING AND JACKSON AREA AND THE CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN...WHILE MAKING IT TO MID-LAKE DOES NOT APPEAR AS
THROUGH IT WILL GET MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN IT ALREADY HAS. ALL OF
THAT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES BY 02Z FOR SURE. I PUT VFR
CIGS IN THE TAFS SINCE THERE AS THERE IS A SHORTWAVE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THAT SHOULD BRING THOSE VFR CIGS IN AS THIS MOVES INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN BY 06Z. SO WHILE CURRENTLY THERE ARE NO CLOUDS WITH
CEILING BELOW 12000 FT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO ACTUALLY
MOVE IN I DO BELIEVE THEY WILL BY 06Z OR SO. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD
BE THROUGH THE AREA BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THAT WOULD DEAL TO
CLEARING SKIES BY LATE MORNING. THERE IS NOT NEARLY AS MUCH
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THERE WAS TODAY SO I DO NOT
THINK WE WILL BE SEEING CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LIKE WE DID
TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TWO NORTH FLOW UPWELLING/OVERTURNING EVENTS IN THE LAST WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN VERY COLD WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST PER BUOY READINGS. THIS IS ACTUALLY RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG AS SHOWN ON THE MUSKEGON WEB CAM DESPITE A COOL AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

SFC DEW PTS HOWEVER ARE IN THE MID 50S WHICH OVER 40 DEGREE WATER
WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS IS PROMOTING SOME FOG. HAVE ADDED THIS
THREAT TO THE NEARSHORE FCST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PERIODS OF
STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY MIX THE FOG
OUT AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE FOG IS
LOW... SO WILL NOT ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/WAVES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH
WOULD NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 300016
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
816 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL LINGER A FEW MORE DAYS BUT WILL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
THIS WEEK... PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF HWY 131
UNDERNEATH UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL ALOFT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET WITH AN OVERALL EASTWARD DRIFT BEFORE DISSIPATING.

WHILE THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN SPARED OF ANY DIURNAL
ACTIVITY DUE TO THE STABLE ONSHORE FLOW... THIS AREA IS STILL AT
RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AFTER 7-8 PM THIS EVENING AS THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LK MI IN A DECAYING MODE.

THE PROBABILITY/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS
LESS THAN TODAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR... DECREASING WEST AND NORTH OF GRR.

WHILE THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WILL CERTAINLY BE LESS
LATE AT NIGHT INTO MID MORNING OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS... FEEL SOME LOW
POPS MAY STILL BE WARRANTED OUTSIDE OF PK HEATING TIME. MODELS/WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES ROTATING
AROUND THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX. ANY ONE OF THESE FEATURES COULD STILL
TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT ANY TIME AS THEY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION... EVEN WITHOUT THE DIURNAL COMPONENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL THE SAME GENERAL WX PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURING A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OUT
WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN
SPITE OF THAT.

INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH COLD AIR ALOFT UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY LEAD TO A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL STILL BE SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND POOL OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD SHIFT NE TO QUEBEC. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 816 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE BOTTOM LINE TO THE FORECAST IS VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL MOSTLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TOO.

THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
OUT OF THE LANSING AND JACKSON AREA AND THE CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN...WHILE MAKING IT TO MID-LAKE DOES NOT APPEAR AS
THROUGH IT WILL GET MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN IT ALREADY HAS. ALL OF
THAT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES BY 02Z FOR SURE. I PUT VFR
CIGS IN THE TAFS SINCE THERE AS THERE IS A SHORTWAVE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THAT SHOULD BRING THOSE VFR CIGS IN AS THIS MOVES INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN BY 06Z. SO WHILE CURRENTLY THERE ARE NO CLOUDS WITH
CEILING BELOW 12000 FT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO ACTUALLY
MOVE IN I DO BELIEVE THEY WILL BY 06Z OR SO. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD
BE THROUGH THE AREA BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THAT WOULD DEAL TO
CLEARING SKIES BY LATE MORNING. THERE IS NOT NEARLY AS MUCH
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THERE WAS TODAY SO I DO NOT
THINK WE WILL BE SEEING CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LIKE WE DID
TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TWO NORTH FLOW UPWELLING/OVERTURNING EVENTS IN THE LAST WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN VERY COLD WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST PER BUOY READINGS. THIS IS ACTUALLY RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG AS SHOWN ON THE MUSKEGON WEB CAM DESPITE A COOL AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

SFC DEW PTS HOWEVER ARE IN THE MID 50S WHICH OVER 40 DEGREE WATER
WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS IS PROMOTING SOME FOG. HAVE ADDED THIS
THREAT TO THE NEARSHORE FCST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PERIODS OF
STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY MIX THE FOG
OUT AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE FOG IS
LOW... SO WILL NOT ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/WAVES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH
WOULD NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 291930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL LINGER A FEW MORE DAYS BUT WILL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
THIS WEEK... PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF HWY 131
UNDERNEATH UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL ALOFT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET WITH AN OVERALL EASTWARD DRIFT BEFORE DISSIPATING.

WHILE THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN SPARED OF ANY DIURNAL
ACTIVITY DUE TO THE STABLE ONSHORE FLOW... THIS AREA IS STILL AT
RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AFTER 7-8 PM THIS EVENING AS THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LK MI IN A DECAYING MODE.

THE PROBABILITY/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS
LESS THAN TODAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR... DECREASING WEST AND NORTH OF GRR.

WHILE THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WILL CERTAINLY BE LESS
LATE AT NIGHT INTO MID MORNING OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS... FEEL SOME LOW
POPS MAY STILL BE WARRANTED OUTSIDE OF PK HEATING TIME. MODELS/WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES ROTATING
AROUND THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX. ANY ONE OF THESE FEATURES COULD STILL
TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT ANY TIME AS THEY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION... EVEN WITHOUT THE DIURNAL COMPONENT.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL THE SAME GENERAL WX PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURING A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OUT
WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN
SPITE OF THAT.

INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH COLD AIR ALOFT UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY LEAD TO A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL STILL BE SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND POOL OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD SHIFT NE TO QUEBEC. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. CIGS WITH
CLOUD BASES OF 3500-5000FT ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY AT OUR EASTERN TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE ENDING.

A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
CONDITIONS TO BRIEFLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TWO NORTH FLOW UPWELLING/OVERTURNING EVENTS IN THE LAST WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN VERY COLD WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST PER BUOY READINGS. THIS IS ACTUALLY RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG AS SHOWN ON THE MUSKEGON WEB CAM DESPITE A COOL AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

SFC DEW PTS HOWEVER ARE IN THE MID 50S WHICH OVER 40 DEGREE WATER
WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS IS PROMOTING SOME FOG. HAVE ADDED THIS
THREAT TO THE NEARSHORE FCST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PERIODS OF
STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY MIX THE FOG
OUT AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE FOG IS
LOW... SO WILL NOT ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/WAVES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH
WOULD NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE










000
FXUS63 KGRR 291930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL LINGER A FEW MORE DAYS BUT WILL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
THIS WEEK... PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF HWY 131
UNDERNEATH UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL ALOFT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET WITH AN OVERALL EASTWARD DRIFT BEFORE DISSIPATING.

WHILE THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN SPARED OF ANY DIURNAL
ACTIVITY DUE TO THE STABLE ONSHORE FLOW... THIS AREA IS STILL AT
RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AFTER 7-8 PM THIS EVENING AS THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LK MI IN A DECAYING MODE.

THE PROBABILITY/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS
LESS THAN TODAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR... DECREASING WEST AND NORTH OF GRR.

WHILE THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WILL CERTAINLY BE LESS
LATE AT NIGHT INTO MID MORNING OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS... FEEL SOME LOW
POPS MAY STILL BE WARRANTED OUTSIDE OF PK HEATING TIME. MODELS/WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES ROTATING
AROUND THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX. ANY ONE OF THESE FEATURES COULD STILL
TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT ANY TIME AS THEY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION... EVEN WITHOUT THE DIURNAL COMPONENT.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL THE SAME GENERAL WX PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURING A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OUT
WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN
SPITE OF THAT.

INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH COLD AIR ALOFT UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY LEAD TO A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL STILL BE SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND POOL OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD SHIFT NE TO QUEBEC. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. CIGS WITH
CLOUD BASES OF 3500-5000FT ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY AT OUR EASTERN TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE ENDING.

A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
CONDITIONS TO BRIEFLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TWO NORTH FLOW UPWELLING/OVERTURNING EVENTS IN THE LAST WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN VERY COLD WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST PER BUOY READINGS. THIS IS ACTUALLY RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG AS SHOWN ON THE MUSKEGON WEB CAM DESPITE A COOL AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

SFC DEW PTS HOWEVER ARE IN THE MID 50S WHICH OVER 40 DEGREE WATER
WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS IS PROMOTING SOME FOG. HAVE ADDED THIS
THREAT TO THE NEARSHORE FCST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PERIODS OF
STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY MIX THE FOG
OUT AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE FOG IS
LOW... SO WILL NOT ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/WAVES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH
WOULD NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE HEALTHIER CELLS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE











000
FXUS63 KGRR 291628 CCA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1230 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A RELATIVELY COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR LATE JULY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE AREA
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE MANY
HOURS DURING EACH DAY FOR ANY ONE LOCATION THAT IT WILL NOT BE
RAINING.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND LAN/JXN SHOW ONLY
ABOUT 500-800 JOULES OF SKINNY CAPE TO WORK WITH. NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT JUST ENOUGH TO POP A FEW CELLS DURING PEAK HEATING.
IN ADDITION TO THE SMALL HAIL THREAT RELATED TO THE LOW FRZG
LVLS... A GUSTY WIND THREAT PROBABLY EXISTS AS WELL AS FCST SNDGS
HAVE INVERTED-V LOOK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE
CLOUD BASES AROUND 7K FT. THE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO BE
PROGGED EAST OF HWY 131 ON THE LAKE BREEZE SHADOW. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THE DIURNAL CUMULUS IS
ALREADY POPPING. MODERATE TO TOWERING CU SHOULD DEVELOP BY 2PM WITH
LITTLE TO TO CIN CURRENTLY PRESENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST WILL BE ON THE TRENDS FOR RAIN CHCS EACH
DAY AND WHAT IF ANY SEVERE CHCS WILL BE PRESENT. THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE/REGION. SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NNW AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW
OF THE LOW.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR MANISTEE AS OF 07Z
THIS MORNING HEADING TO THE SE. THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE DIRECTLY
RELATED TO A SHORT WAVE THAT IS COMING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. WE
WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 12-14Z WITH THIS AS
IT PROGRESSES SE OUT OF THE CWFA BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL THEN SEE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE QUITE A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SSE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. HI RES
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE
WILL BE ACROSS WI AND CENTRAL AND ERN LOWER MI. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WRLY WINDS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LIMIT CONVECTION THERE AS A RESULT.

WE AGREE WITH THE SWODY1 FROM SPC THAT THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED
IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS THIS AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY THIN CAPE PROFILES. THIS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH THE
UPPER LOW WOULD POINT TOWARD HAIL OCCURRING WITH THE STORMS...BUT
STAYING SUB-SEVERE WITH CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME WIND GUSTS...BUT LIMITED MID
LEVEL WINDS BELOW 40 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP WIND GUSTS SUB-SEVERE ALSO.

AFTER AN EXPECTED LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
WED MORNING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE SE ON WED
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH ARE OVER THE SE
CORNER OF THE CWFA DURING PEAK HEATING. THE LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WITH WRLY FLOW AGAIN.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION A LITTLE ELSEWHERE.
AGAIN. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME HAILERS WILL BE LIKELY.

WE WILL REPEAT THE SITUATION ON THU...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE LIMITED AS TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO WARM SLIGHTLY. WINDS
ALOFT ALSO DROP OFF A LITTLE...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WIND THREAT
A LITTLE MORE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT) OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48.
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED FROM ONT/QUE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY/MONDAY THE TROUGH
LIFTS OUT SOMEWHAT WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.

AT THE SURFACE VERY WEAK FEATURES TO KEY ON WITH OCCASIONAL TROUGHS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT AND VARY FROM THE GFS TO THE ECMWF.

AIR MASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED BY THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY THINKING
HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND 80
TO THE LOWER 80S.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCES INSTABILITY.
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE
THE GFS IS MORE WRAPPED UP WITH ITS SURFACE LOW AND DELAYS THIS
UNTIL TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE SMALL POPS...20 PCT IN THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO PLAY A BIT OF A MIDDLE
GROUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. CIGS WITH
CLOUD BASES OF 3500-5000FT ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY AT OUR EASTERN TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE ENDING.

A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
CONDITIONS TO BRIEFLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TWO NORTH FLOW UPWELLING/OVERTURNING EVENTS IN THE LAST WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN VERY COLD WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST PER BUOY READINGS. THIS IS ACTUALLY RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY
FOG AS SHOWN ON THE MUSKEGON WEB CAM DESPITE A COOL AND RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS. SFC DEW PTS HOWEVER ARE IN THE MID 50S WHICH OVER 40
DEGREE WATER WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS IS PROMOTING SOME FOG. WILL
THEREFORE ADD THIS THREAT TO THE NEARSHORE FCST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
MAY MIX THE FOG OUT AT TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 127 ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 291628 CCA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1230 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A RELATIVELY COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR LATE JULY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE AREA
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE MANY
HOURS DURING EACH DAY FOR ANY ONE LOCATION THAT IT WILL NOT BE
RAINING.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND LAN/JXN SHOW ONLY
ABOUT 500-800 JOULES OF SKINNY CAPE TO WORK WITH. NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT JUST ENOUGH TO POP A FEW CELLS DURING PEAK HEATING.
IN ADDITION TO THE SMALL HAIL THREAT RELATED TO THE LOW FRZG
LVLS... A GUSTY WIND THREAT PROBABLY EXISTS AS WELL AS FCST SNDGS
HAVE INVERTED-V LOOK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE
CLOUD BASES AROUND 7K FT. THE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO BE
PROGGED EAST OF HWY 131 ON THE LAKE BREEZE SHADOW. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THE DIURNAL CUMULUS IS
ALREADY POPPING. MODERATE TO TOWERING CU SHOULD DEVELOP BY 2PM WITH
LITTLE TO TO CIN CURRENTLY PRESENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST WILL BE ON THE TRENDS FOR RAIN CHCS EACH
DAY AND WHAT IF ANY SEVERE CHCS WILL BE PRESENT. THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE/REGION. SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NNW AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW
OF THE LOW.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR MANISTEE AS OF 07Z
THIS MORNING HEADING TO THE SE. THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE DIRECTLY
RELATED TO A SHORT WAVE THAT IS COMING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. WE
WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 12-14Z WITH THIS AS
IT PROGRESSES SE OUT OF THE CWFA BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL THEN SEE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE QUITE A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SSE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. HI RES
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE
WILL BE ACROSS WI AND CENTRAL AND ERN LOWER MI. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WRLY WINDS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LIMIT CONVECTION THERE AS A RESULT.

WE AGREE WITH THE SWODY1 FROM SPC THAT THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED
IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS THIS AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY THIN CAPE PROFILES. THIS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH THE
UPPER LOW WOULD POINT TOWARD HAIL OCCURRING WITH THE STORMS...BUT
STAYING SUB-SEVERE WITH CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME WIND GUSTS...BUT LIMITED MID
LEVEL WINDS BELOW 40 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP WIND GUSTS SUB-SEVERE ALSO.

AFTER AN EXPECTED LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
WED MORNING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE SE ON WED
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH ARE OVER THE SE
CORNER OF THE CWFA DURING PEAK HEATING. THE LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WITH WRLY FLOW AGAIN.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION A LITTLE ELSEWHERE.
AGAIN. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME HAILERS WILL BE LIKELY.

WE WILL REPEAT THE SITUATION ON THU...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE LIMITED AS TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO WARM SLIGHTLY. WINDS
ALOFT ALSO DROP OFF A LITTLE...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WIND THREAT
A LITTLE MORE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT) OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48.
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED FROM ONT/QUE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY/MONDAY THE TROUGH
LIFTS OUT SOMEWHAT WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.

AT THE SURFACE VERY WEAK FEATURES TO KEY ON WITH OCCASIONAL TROUGHS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT AND VARY FROM THE GFS TO THE ECMWF.

AIR MASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED BY THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY THINKING
HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND 80
TO THE LOWER 80S.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCES INSTABILITY.
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE
THE GFS IS MORE WRAPPED UP WITH ITS SURFACE LOW AND DELAYS THIS
UNTIL TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE SMALL POPS...20 PCT IN THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO PLAY A BIT OF A MIDDLE
GROUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. CIGS WITH
CLOUD BASES OF 3500-5000FT ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY AT OUR EASTERN TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE ENDING.

A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
CONDITIONS TO BRIEFLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TWO NORTH FLOW UPWELLING/OVERTURNING EVENTS IN THE LAST WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN VERY COLD WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST PER BUOY READINGS. THIS IS ACTUALLY RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY
FOG AS SHOWN ON THE MUSKEGON WEB CAM DESPITE A COOL AND RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS. SFC DEW PTS HOWEVER ARE IN THE MID 50S WHICH OVER 40
DEGREE WATER WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS IS PROMOTING SOME FOG. WILL
THEREFORE ADD THIS THREAT TO THE NEARSHORE FCST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
MAY MIX THE FOG OUT AT TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 127 ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 291601 CCA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A RELATIVELY COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR LATE JULY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE AREA
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE MANY
HOURS DURING EACH DAY FOR ANY ONE LOCATION THAT IT WILL NOT BE
RAINING.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND LAN/JXN SHOW ONLY
ABOUT 500-800 JOULES OF SKINNY CAPE TO WORK WITH. NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT JUST ENOUGH TO POP A FEW CELLS DURING PEAK HEATING.
IN ADDITION TO THE SMALL HAIL THREAT RELATED TO THE LOW FRZG
LVLS... A GUSTY WIND THREAT PROBABLY EXISTS AS WELL AS FCST SNDGS
HAVE INVERTED-V LOOK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE
CLOUD BASES AROUND 7K FT. THE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO BE
PROGGED EAST OF HWY 131 ON THE LAKE BREEZE SHADOW. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THE DIURNAL CUMULUS IS
ALREADY POPPING. MODERATE TO TOWERING CU SHOULD DEVELOP BY 2PM WITH
LITTLE TO TO CIN CURRENTLY PRESENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST WILL BE ON THE TRENDS FOR RAIN CHCS EACH
DAY AND WHAT IF ANY SEVERE CHCS WILL BE PRESENT. THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE/REGION. SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NNW AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW
OF THE LOW.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR MANISTEE AS OF 07Z
THIS MORNING HEADING TO THE SE. THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE DIRECTLY
RELATED TO A SHORT WAVE THAT IS COMING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. WE
WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 12-14Z WITH THIS AS
IT PROGRESSES SE OUT OF THE CWFA BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL THEN SEE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE QUITE A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SSE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. HI RES
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE
WILL BE ACROSS WI AND CENTRAL AND ERN LOWER MI. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WRLY WINDS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LIMIT CONVECTION THERE AS A RESULT.

WE AGREE WITH THE SWODY1 FROM SPC THAT THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED
IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS THIS AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY THIN CAPE PROFILES. THIS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH THE
UPPER LOW WOULD POINT TOWARD HAIL OCCURRING WITH THE STORMS...BUT
STAYING SUB-SEVERE WITH CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME WIND GUSTS...BUT LIMITED MID
LEVEL WINDS BELOW 40 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP WIND GUSTS SUB-SEVERE ALSO.

AFTER AN EXPECTED LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
WED MORNING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE SE ON WED
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH ARE OVER THE SE
CORNER OF THE CWFA DURING PEAK HEATING. THE LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WITH WRLY FLOW AGAIN.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION A LITTLE ELSEWHERE.
AGAIN. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME HAILERS WILL BE LIKELY.

WE WILL REPEAT THE SITUATION ON THU...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE LIMITED AS TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO WARM SLIGHTLY. WINDS
ALOFT ALSO DROP OFF A LITTLE...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WIND THREAT
A LITTLE MORE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT) OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48.
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED FROM ONT/QUE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY/MONDAY THE TROUGH
LIFTS OUT SOMEWHAT WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.

AT THE SURFACE VERY WEAK FEATURES TO KEY ON WITH OCCASIONAL TROUGHS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT AND VARY FROM THE GFS TO THE ECMWF.

AIR MASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED BY THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY THINKING
HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND 80
TO THE LOWER 80S.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCES INSTABILITY.
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE
THE GFS IS MORE WRAPPED UP WITH ITS SURFACE LOW AND DELAYS THIS
UNTIL TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE SMALL POPS...20 PCT IN THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO PLAY A BIT OF A MIDDLE
GROUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS OF
3500-5000FT ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME. A FLARE UP IN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT VCTS IN THE
TAFS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL. SO...HAVE VCSH IN THE TAFS FROM
17Z-02Z. ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN AT
LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TWO NORTH FLOW UPWELLING/OVERTURNING EVENTS IN THE LAST WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN VERY COLD WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST PER BUOY READINGS. THIS IS ACTUALLY RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY
FOG AS SHOWN ON THE MUSKEGON WEB CAM DESPITE A COOL AND RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS. SFC DEW PTS HOWEVER ARE IN THE MID 50S WHICH OVER 40
DEGREE WATER WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS IS PROMOTING SOME FOG. WILL
THEREFORE ADD THIS THREAT TO THE NEARSHORE FCST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
MAY MIX THE FOG OUT AT TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 127 ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE











000
FXUS63 KGRR 291601 CCA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A RELATIVELY COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR LATE JULY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE AREA
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE MANY
HOURS DURING EACH DAY FOR ANY ONE LOCATION THAT IT WILL NOT BE
RAINING.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND LAN/JXN SHOW ONLY
ABOUT 500-800 JOULES OF SKINNY CAPE TO WORK WITH. NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT JUST ENOUGH TO POP A FEW CELLS DURING PEAK HEATING.
IN ADDITION TO THE SMALL HAIL THREAT RELATED TO THE LOW FRZG
LVLS... A GUSTY WIND THREAT PROBABLY EXISTS AS WELL AS FCST SNDGS
HAVE INVERTED-V LOOK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE
CLOUD BASES AROUND 7K FT. THE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO BE
PROGGED EAST OF HWY 131 ON THE LAKE BREEZE SHADOW. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THE DIURNAL CUMULUS IS
ALREADY POPPING. MODERATE TO TOWERING CU SHOULD DEVELOP BY 2PM WITH
LITTLE TO TO CIN CURRENTLY PRESENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST WILL BE ON THE TRENDS FOR RAIN CHCS EACH
DAY AND WHAT IF ANY SEVERE CHCS WILL BE PRESENT. THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE/REGION. SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NNW AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW
OF THE LOW.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR MANISTEE AS OF 07Z
THIS MORNING HEADING TO THE SE. THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE DIRECTLY
RELATED TO A SHORT WAVE THAT IS COMING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. WE
WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 12-14Z WITH THIS AS
IT PROGRESSES SE OUT OF THE CWFA BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL THEN SEE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE QUITE A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SSE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. HI RES
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE
WILL BE ACROSS WI AND CENTRAL AND ERN LOWER MI. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WRLY WINDS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LIMIT CONVECTION THERE AS A RESULT.

WE AGREE WITH THE SWODY1 FROM SPC THAT THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED
IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS THIS AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY THIN CAPE PROFILES. THIS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH THE
UPPER LOW WOULD POINT TOWARD HAIL OCCURRING WITH THE STORMS...BUT
STAYING SUB-SEVERE WITH CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME WIND GUSTS...BUT LIMITED MID
LEVEL WINDS BELOW 40 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP WIND GUSTS SUB-SEVERE ALSO.

AFTER AN EXPECTED LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
WED MORNING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE SE ON WED
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH ARE OVER THE SE
CORNER OF THE CWFA DURING PEAK HEATING. THE LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WITH WRLY FLOW AGAIN.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION A LITTLE ELSEWHERE.
AGAIN. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME HAILERS WILL BE LIKELY.

WE WILL REPEAT THE SITUATION ON THU...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE LIMITED AS TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO WARM SLIGHTLY. WINDS
ALOFT ALSO DROP OFF A LITTLE...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WIND THREAT
A LITTLE MORE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT) OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48.
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED FROM ONT/QUE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY/MONDAY THE TROUGH
LIFTS OUT SOMEWHAT WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.

AT THE SURFACE VERY WEAK FEATURES TO KEY ON WITH OCCASIONAL TROUGHS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT AND VARY FROM THE GFS TO THE ECMWF.

AIR MASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED BY THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY THINKING
HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND 80
TO THE LOWER 80S.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCES INSTABILITY.
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE
THE GFS IS MORE WRAPPED UP WITH ITS SURFACE LOW AND DELAYS THIS
UNTIL TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE SMALL POPS...20 PCT IN THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO PLAY A BIT OF A MIDDLE
GROUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS OF
3500-5000FT ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME. A FLARE UP IN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT VCTS IN THE
TAFS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL. SO...HAVE VCSH IN THE TAFS FROM
17Z-02Z. ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN AT
LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TWO NORTH FLOW UPWELLING/OVERTURNING EVENTS IN THE LAST WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN VERY COLD WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST PER BUOY READINGS. THIS IS ACTUALLY RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY
FOG AS SHOWN ON THE MUSKEGON WEB CAM DESPITE A COOL AND RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS. SFC DEW PTS HOWEVER ARE IN THE MID 50S WHICH OVER 40
DEGREE WATER WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS IS PROMOTING SOME FOG. WILL
THEREFORE ADD THIS THREAT TO THE NEARSHORE FCST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
MAY MIX THE FOG OUT AT TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 127 ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE










000
FXUS63 KGRR 291555
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A RELATIVELY COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR LATE JULY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE AREA
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE MANY
HOURS DURING EACH DAY FOR ANY ONE LOCATION THAT IT WILL NOT BE
RAINING.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND LAN/JXN SHOW ONLY
ABOUT 500-800 JOULES OF SKINNY CAPE TO WORK WITH. NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT JUST ENOUGH TO POP A FEW CELLS DURING PEAK HEATING.
IN ADDITION TO THE SMALL HAIL THREAT RELATED TO THE LOW FRZG
LVLS... A GUSTY WIND THREAT PROBABLY EXISTS AS WELL AS FCST SNDGS
HAVE INVERTED-V LOOK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE
CLOUD BASES AROUND 7K FT. THE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO BE
PROGGED EAST OF HWY 131 ON THE LAKE BREEZE SHADOW. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THE DIURNAL CUMULUS IS
ALREADY POPPING. MDT TO TOWING CU SHOULD DEVELOP BY 2PM WITH
LITTLE TO TO CIN CURRENTLY PRESENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST WILL BE ON THE TRENDS FOR RAIN CHCS EACH
DAY AND WHAT IF ANY SEVERE CHCS WILL BE PRESENT. THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE/REGION. SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NNW AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW
OF THE LOW.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR MANISTEE AS OF 07Z
THIS MORNING HEADING TO THE SE. THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE DIRECTLY
RELATED TO A SHORT WAVE THAT IS COMING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. WE
WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 12-14Z WITH THIS AS
IT PROGRESSES SE OUT OF THE CWFA BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL THEN SEE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE QUITE A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SSE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. HI RES
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE
WILL BE ACROSS WI AND CENTRAL AND ERN LOWER MI. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WRLY WINDS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LIMIT CONVECTION THERE AS A RESULT.

WE AGREE WITH THE SWODY1 FROM SPC THAT THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED
IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS THIS AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY THIN CAPE PROFILES. THIS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH THE
UPPER LOW WOULD POINT TOWARD HAIL OCCURRING WITH THE STORMS...BUT
STAYING SUB-SEVERE WITH CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME WIND GUSTS...BUT LIMITED MID
LEVEL WINDS BELOW 40 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP WIND GUSTS SUB-SEVERE ALSO.

AFTER AN EXPECTED LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
WED MORNING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE SE ON WED
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH ARE OVER THE SE
CORNER OF THE CWFA DURING PEAK HEATING. THE LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WITH WRLY FLOW AGAIN.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION A LITTLE ELSEWHERE.
AGAIN. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME HAILERS WILL BE LIKELY.

WE WILL REPEAT THE SITUATION ON THU...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE LIMITED AS TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO WARM SLIGHTLY. WINDS
ALOFT ALSO DROP OFF A LITTLE...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WIND THREAT
A LITTLE MORE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT) OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48.
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED FROM ONT/QUE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY/MONDAY THE TROUGH
LIFTS OUT SOMEWHAT WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.

AT THE SURFACE VERY WEAK FEATURES TO KEY ON WITH OCCASIONAL TROUGHS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT AND VARY FROM THE GFS TO THE ECMWF.

AIR MASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED BY THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY THINKING
HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND 80
TO THE LOWER 80S.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCES INSTABILITY.
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE
THE GFS IS MORE WRAPPED UP WITH ITS SURFACE LOW AND DELAYS THIS
UNTIL TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE SMALL POPS...20 PCT IN THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO PLAY A BIT OF A MIDDLE
GROUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS OF
3500-5000FT ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME. A FLARE UP IN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT VCTS IN THE
TAFS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL. SO...HAVE VCSH IN THE TAFS FROM
17Z-02Z. ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN AT
LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TWO NORTH FLOW UPWELLING/OVERTURNING EVENTS IN THE LAST WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN VERY COLD WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST PER BUOY READINGS. THIS IS ACTUALLY RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY
FOG AS SHOWN ON THE MUSKEGON WEB CAM DESPITE A COOL AND RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS. SFC DEW PTS HOWEVER ARE IN THE MID 50S WHICH OVER 40
DEGREE WATER WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS IS PROMOTING SOME FOG. WILL
THEREFORE ADD THIS THREAT TO THE NEARSHORE FCST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
MAY MIX THE FOG OUT AT TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 127 ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 291555
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A RELATIVELY COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR LATE JULY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE AREA
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE MANY
HOURS DURING EACH DAY FOR ANY ONE LOCATION THAT IT WILL NOT BE
RAINING.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND LAN/JXN SHOW ONLY
ABOUT 500-800 JOULES OF SKINNY CAPE TO WORK WITH. NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT JUST ENOUGH TO POP A FEW CELLS DURING PEAK HEATING.
IN ADDITION TO THE SMALL HAIL THREAT RELATED TO THE LOW FRZG
LVLS... A GUSTY WIND THREAT PROBABLY EXISTS AS WELL AS FCST SNDGS
HAVE INVERTED-V LOOK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE
CLOUD BASES AROUND 7K FT. THE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO BE
PROGGED EAST OF HWY 131 ON THE LAKE BREEZE SHADOW. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THE DIURNAL CUMULUS IS
ALREADY POPPING. MDT TO TOWING CU SHOULD DEVELOP BY 2PM WITH
LITTLE TO TO CIN CURRENTLY PRESENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST WILL BE ON THE TRENDS FOR RAIN CHCS EACH
DAY AND WHAT IF ANY SEVERE CHCS WILL BE PRESENT. THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE/REGION. SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NNW AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW
OF THE LOW.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR MANISTEE AS OF 07Z
THIS MORNING HEADING TO THE SE. THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE DIRECTLY
RELATED TO A SHORT WAVE THAT IS COMING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. WE
WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 12-14Z WITH THIS AS
IT PROGRESSES SE OUT OF THE CWFA BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL THEN SEE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE QUITE A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SSE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. HI RES
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE
WILL BE ACROSS WI AND CENTRAL AND ERN LOWER MI. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WRLY WINDS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LIMIT CONVECTION THERE AS A RESULT.

WE AGREE WITH THE SWODY1 FROM SPC THAT THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED
IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS THIS AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY THIN CAPE PROFILES. THIS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH THE
UPPER LOW WOULD POINT TOWARD HAIL OCCURRING WITH THE STORMS...BUT
STAYING SUB-SEVERE WITH CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME WIND GUSTS...BUT LIMITED MID
LEVEL WINDS BELOW 40 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP WIND GUSTS SUB-SEVERE ALSO.

AFTER AN EXPECTED LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
WED MORNING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE SE ON WED
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH ARE OVER THE SE
CORNER OF THE CWFA DURING PEAK HEATING. THE LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WITH WRLY FLOW AGAIN.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION A LITTLE ELSEWHERE.
AGAIN. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME HAILERS WILL BE LIKELY.

WE WILL REPEAT THE SITUATION ON THU...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE LIMITED AS TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO WARM SLIGHTLY. WINDS
ALOFT ALSO DROP OFF A LITTLE...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WIND THREAT
A LITTLE MORE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT) OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48.
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED FROM ONT/QUE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY/MONDAY THE TROUGH
LIFTS OUT SOMEWHAT WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.

AT THE SURFACE VERY WEAK FEATURES TO KEY ON WITH OCCASIONAL TROUGHS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT AND VARY FROM THE GFS TO THE ECMWF.

AIR MASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED BY THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY THINKING
HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND 80
TO THE LOWER 80S.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCES INSTABILITY.
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE
THE GFS IS MORE WRAPPED UP WITH ITS SURFACE LOW AND DELAYS THIS
UNTIL TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE SMALL POPS...20 PCT IN THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO PLAY A BIT OF A MIDDLE
GROUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS OF
3500-5000FT ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME. A FLARE UP IN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT VCTS IN THE
TAFS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL. SO...HAVE VCSH IN THE TAFS FROM
17Z-02Z. ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN AT
LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TWO NORTH FLOW UPWELLING/OVERTURNING EVENTS IN THE LAST WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN VERY COLD WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST PER BUOY READINGS. THIS IS ACTUALLY RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY
FOG AS SHOWN ON THE MUSKEGON WEB CAM DESPITE A COOL AND RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS. SFC DEW PTS HOWEVER ARE IN THE MID 50S WHICH OVER 40
DEGREE WATER WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS IS PROMOTING SOME FOG. WILL
THEREFORE ADD THIS THREAT TO THE NEARSHORE FCST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
MAY MIX THE FOG OUT AT TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 127 ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 291145
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
745 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A RELATIVELY COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR LATE JULY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE AREA
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE MANY
HOURS DURING EACH DAY FOR ANY ONE LOCATION THAT IT WILL NOT BE
RAINING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST WILL BE ON THE TRENDS FOR RAIN CHCS EACH
DAY AND WHAT IF ANY SEVERE CHCS WILL BE PRESENT. THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE/REGION. SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NNW AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW
OF THE LOW.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR MANISTEE AS OF 07Z
THIS MORNING HEADING TO THE SE. THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE DIRECTLY
RELATED TO A SHORT WAVE THAT IS COMING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. WE
WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 12-14Z WITH THIS AS
IT PROGRESSES SE OUT OF THE CWFA BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL THEN SEE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE QUITE A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SSE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. HI RES
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE
WILL BE ACROSS WI AND CENTRAL AND ERN LOWER MI. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WRLY WINDS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LIMIT CONVECTION THERE AS A RESULT.

WE AGREE WITH THE SWODY1 FROM SPC THAT THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED
IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS THIS AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY THIN CAPE PROFILES. THIS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH THE
UPPER LOW WOULD POINT TOWARD HAIL OCCURRING WITH THE STORMS...BUT
STAYING SUB-SEVERE WITH CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME WIND GUSTS...BUT LIMITED MID
LEVEL WINDS BELOW 40 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP WIND GUSTS SUB-SEVERE ALSO.

AFTER AN EXPECTED LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
WED MORNING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE SE ON WED
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH ARE OVER THE SE
CORNER OF THE CWFA DURING PEAK HEATING. THE LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WITH WRLY FLOW AGAIN.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION A LITTLE ELSEWHERE.
AGAIN. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME HAILERS WILL BE LIKELY.

WE WILL REPEAT THE SITUATION ON THU...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE LIMITED AS TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO WARM SLIGHTLY. WINDS
ALOFT ALSO DROP OFF A LITTLE...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WIND THREAT
A LITTLE MORE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT) OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48.
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED FROM ONT/QUE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY/MONDAY THE TROUGH
LIFTS OUT SOMEWHAT WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.

AT THE SURFACE VERY WEAK FEATURES TO KEY ON WITH OCCASIONAL TROUGHS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT AND VARY FROM THE GFS TO THE ECMWF.

AIR MASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED BY THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY THINKING
HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND 80
TO THE LOWER 80S.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCES INSTABILITY.
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE
THE GFS IS MORE WRAPPED UP WITH ITS SURFACE LOW AND DELAYS THIS
UNTIL TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE SMALL POPS...20 PCT IN THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO PLAY A BIT OF A MIDDLE
GROUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS OF
3500-5000FT ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME. A FLARE UP IN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT VCTS IN THE
TAFS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL. SO...HAVE VCSH IN THE TAFS FROM
17Z-02Z. ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN AT
LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ALL MARINE HEADLINES HAVE NOW BEEN CANCELLED WITH THIS LAST EVENT AS
THE FINAL SOUTHERN ZONE HAS SEEN WAVES DROP DOWN TO AROUND 3 FT AT
THE ST. JOE BUOY. WE WILL SEE A LULL IN THE ACTION THIS MORNING
BEFORE WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD COME UP
SHORT OF NEEDING ANOTHER ADVISORY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 127 ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...NJJ








000
FXUS63 KGRR 291145
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
745 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A RELATIVELY COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR LATE JULY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE AREA
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE MANY
HOURS DURING EACH DAY FOR ANY ONE LOCATION THAT IT WILL NOT BE
RAINING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST WILL BE ON THE TRENDS FOR RAIN CHCS EACH
DAY AND WHAT IF ANY SEVERE CHCS WILL BE PRESENT. THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE/REGION. SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NNW AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW
OF THE LOW.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR MANISTEE AS OF 07Z
THIS MORNING HEADING TO THE SE. THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE DIRECTLY
RELATED TO A SHORT WAVE THAT IS COMING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. WE
WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 12-14Z WITH THIS AS
IT PROGRESSES SE OUT OF THE CWFA BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL THEN SEE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE QUITE A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SSE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. HI RES
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE
WILL BE ACROSS WI AND CENTRAL AND ERN LOWER MI. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WRLY WINDS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LIMIT CONVECTION THERE AS A RESULT.

WE AGREE WITH THE SWODY1 FROM SPC THAT THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED
IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS THIS AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY THIN CAPE PROFILES. THIS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH THE
UPPER LOW WOULD POINT TOWARD HAIL OCCURRING WITH THE STORMS...BUT
STAYING SUB-SEVERE WITH CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME WIND GUSTS...BUT LIMITED MID
LEVEL WINDS BELOW 40 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP WIND GUSTS SUB-SEVERE ALSO.

AFTER AN EXPECTED LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
WED MORNING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE SE ON WED
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH ARE OVER THE SE
CORNER OF THE CWFA DURING PEAK HEATING. THE LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WITH WRLY FLOW AGAIN.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION A LITTLE ELSEWHERE.
AGAIN. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME HAILERS WILL BE LIKELY.

WE WILL REPEAT THE SITUATION ON THU...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE LIMITED AS TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO WARM SLIGHTLY. WINDS
ALOFT ALSO DROP OFF A LITTLE...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WIND THREAT
A LITTLE MORE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT) OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48.
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED FROM ONT/QUE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY/MONDAY THE TROUGH
LIFTS OUT SOMEWHAT WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.

AT THE SURFACE VERY WEAK FEATURES TO KEY ON WITH OCCASIONAL TROUGHS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT AND VARY FROM THE GFS TO THE ECMWF.

AIR MASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED BY THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY THINKING
HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND 80
TO THE LOWER 80S.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCES INSTABILITY.
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE
THE GFS IS MORE WRAPPED UP WITH ITS SURFACE LOW AND DELAYS THIS
UNTIL TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE SMALL POPS...20 PCT IN THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO PLAY A BIT OF A MIDDLE
GROUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS OF
3500-5000FT ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME. A FLARE UP IN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT VCTS IN THE
TAFS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL. SO...HAVE VCSH IN THE TAFS FROM
17Z-02Z. ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN AT
LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ALL MARINE HEADLINES HAVE NOW BEEN CANCELLED WITH THIS LAST EVENT AS
THE FINAL SOUTHERN ZONE HAS SEEN WAVES DROP DOWN TO AROUND 3 FT AT
THE ST. JOE BUOY. WE WILL SEE A LULL IN THE ACTION THIS MORNING
BEFORE WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD COME UP
SHORT OF NEEDING ANOTHER ADVISORY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 127 ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 290728
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A RELATIVELY COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR LATE JULY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE AREA
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE MANY
HOURS DURING EACH DAY FOR ANY ONE LOCATION THAT IT WILL NOT BE
RAINING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST WILL BE ON THE TRENDS FOR RAIN CHCS EACH
DAY AND WHAT IF ANY SEVERE CHCS WILL BE PRESENT. THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE/REGION. SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NNW AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW
OF THE LOW.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR MANISTEE AS OF 07Z
THIS MORNING HEADING TO THE SE. THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE DIRECTLY
RELATED TO A SHORT WAVE THAT IS COMING IN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. WE
WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 12-14Z WITH THIS AS
IT PROGRESSES SE OUT OF THE CWFA BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL THEN SEE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE QUITE A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SSE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. HI RES
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE
WILL BE ACROSS WI AND CENTRAL AND ERN LOWER MI. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WRLY WINDS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LIMIT CONVECTION THERE AS A RESULT.

WE AGREE WITH THE SWODY1 FROM SPC THAT THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED
IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS THIS AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY THIN CAPE PROFILES. THIS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH THE
UPPER LOW WOULD POINT TOWARD HAIL OCCURRING WITH THE STORMS...BUT
STAYING SUB-SEVERE WITH CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME WIND GUSTS...BUT LIMITED MID
LEVEL WINDS BELOW 40 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP WIND GUSTS SUB-SEVERE ALSO.

AFTER AN EXPECTED LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
WED MORNING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE SE ON WED
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH ARE OVER THE SE
CORNER OF THE CWFA DURING PEAK HEATING. THE LAKE WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WITH WRLY FLOW AGAIN.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION A LITTLE ELSEWHERE.
AGAIN. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME HAILERS WILL BE LIKELY.

WE WILL REPEAT THE SITUATION ON THU...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE LIMITED AS TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO WARM SLIGHTLY. WINDS
ALOFT ALSO DROP OFF A LITTLE...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WIND THREAT
A LITTLE MORE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT) OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48.
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED FROM ONT/QUE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY/MONDAY THE TROUGH
LIFTS OUT SOMEWHAT WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.

AT THE SURFACE VERY WEAK FEATURES TO KEY ON WITH OCCASIONAL TROUGHS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT AND VARY FROM THE GFS TO THE ECMWF.

AIR MASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED BY THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY THINKING
HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND 80
TO THE LOWER 80S.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCES INSTABILITY.
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE
THE GFS IS MORE WRAPPED UP WITH ITS SURFACE LOW AND DELAYS THIS
UNTIL TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE SMALL POPS...20 PCT IN THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO PLAY A BIT OF A MIDDLE
GROUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN ARE COMING IN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED SO I DELAYED THE
ARRIVAL OF THOSE CLOUDS BY A FEW HOURS. THAT MEANS CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WIND MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.

MODEL SOUNDING LOOK RATHER UNSTABLE FOR TUESDAY DURING THE DAY.
GIVEN THE MOSTLY WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IT WOULD SEEM THE RISK
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LARGELY BE WEST OF US-131 SO I DO NOW HAVE
VCTS FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES EXCEPT GRR AND MKG. I ALSO INCREASE
THE CIGS TO VFR AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUD BASES AROUND 4000
FT AGL. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ALL MARINE HEADLINES HAVE NOW BEEN CANCELLED WITH THIS LAST EVENT AS
THE FINAL SOUTHERN ZONE HAS SEEN WAVES DROP DOWN TO AROUND 3 FT AT
THE ST. JOE BUOY. WE WILL SEE A LULL IN THE ACTION THIS MORNING
BEFORE WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD COME UP
SHORT OF NEEDING ANOTHER ADVISORY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 127 ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...NJJ






000
FXUS63 KGRR 290343
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1143 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE
RECOVERING TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY THIS WEEK... PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

HUDSON BAY VORTEX/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP COOL TEMPS LOCKED
IN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COLD TEMPS ALOFT OF AROUND -17C AT H5 WILL
SUPPORT DIURNAL FLARE UPS OF CONVECTION... ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 131 INLAND FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND
IN AREA OF BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW/LAKE BREEZE.

MODELS SHOW DECENT COVERAGE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND CLARE/MT PLEASANT/ALMA/LAN/JXN AREAS. GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE NAM... SHOWING 1000-1500 J/KG
SB CAPE WHILE NAM IS MORE LIKE 500-1000. EITHER WAY THAT IS ENOUGH
TO HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FCST. THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 9300 FT SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL (PEA TO
PERHAPS MARBLE SIZE) IN ANY STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER THE CAPE IS
THIN... ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM... SUGGESTING WEAK UPDRAFTS.

WILL HAVE LOWER POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
LESS (ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE). MODELS ALSO FOCUS BEST
SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94 DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY THAN WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING OUT AND DEAMPLIFYING AS
IT MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

HOWEVER THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH THE
WESTERN CONUS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF A
TROUGH OVER OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD AVERAGE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN ARE COMING IN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED SO I DELAYED THE
ARRIVAL OF THOSE CLOUDS BY A FEW HOURS. THAT MEANS CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WIND MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.

MODEL SOUNDING LOOK RATHER UNSTABLE FOR TUESDAY DURING THE DAY.
GIVEN THE MOSTLY WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IT WOULD SEEM THE RISK
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LARGELY BE WEST OF US-131 SO I DO NOW HAVE
VCTS FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES EXCEPT GRR AND MKG. I ALSO INCREASE
THE CIGS TO VFR AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUD BASES AROUND 4000
FT AGL. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE STEADY DROP IN WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY AS EXPECTED...AND WAVES ARE LAGGING...BUT FOLLOWING
SUIT. MOST OF THE NEARSHORE HAS DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...EXCEPT FOR THE ST. JOSEPH BUOY WHICH IS AT 5+ FT AT
0140Z SOUTH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. EVEN THIS BUOY IS COMING DOWN
STEADILY...AND WE EXPECT THAT IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO ENOUGH
THAT WE CAN CANCEL ALL MARINE HEADLINES BY 03Z.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 127 ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 290343
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1143 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE
RECOVERING TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY THIS WEEK... PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

HUDSON BAY VORTEX/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP COOL TEMPS LOCKED
IN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COLD TEMPS ALOFT OF AROUND -17C AT H5 WILL
SUPPORT DIURNAL FLARE UPS OF CONVECTION... ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 131 INLAND FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND
IN AREA OF BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW/LAKE BREEZE.

MODELS SHOW DECENT COVERAGE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND CLARE/MT PLEASANT/ALMA/LAN/JXN AREAS. GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE NAM... SHOWING 1000-1500 J/KG
SB CAPE WHILE NAM IS MORE LIKE 500-1000. EITHER WAY THAT IS ENOUGH
TO HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FCST. THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 9300 FT SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL (PEA TO
PERHAPS MARBLE SIZE) IN ANY STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER THE CAPE IS
THIN... ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM... SUGGESTING WEAK UPDRAFTS.

WILL HAVE LOWER POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
LESS (ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE). MODELS ALSO FOCUS BEST
SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94 DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY THAN WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING OUT AND DEAMPLIFYING AS
IT MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

HOWEVER THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH THE
WESTERN CONUS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF A
TROUGH OVER OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD AVERAGE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN ARE COMING IN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED SO I DELAYED THE
ARRIVAL OF THOSE CLOUDS BY A FEW HOURS. THAT MEANS CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WIND MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.

MODEL SOUNDING LOOK RATHER UNSTABLE FOR TUESDAY DURING THE DAY.
GIVEN THE MOSTLY WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IT WOULD SEEM THE RISK
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LARGELY BE WEST OF US-131 SO I DO NOW HAVE
VCTS FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES EXCEPT GRR AND MKG. I ALSO INCREASE
THE CIGS TO VFR AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUD BASES AROUND 4000
FT AGL. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE STEADY DROP IN WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY AS EXPECTED...AND WAVES ARE LAGGING...BUT FOLLOWING
SUIT. MOST OF THE NEARSHORE HAS DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...EXCEPT FOR THE ST. JOSEPH BUOY WHICH IS AT 5+ FT AT
0140Z SOUTH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. EVEN THIS BUOY IS COMING DOWN
STEADILY...AND WE EXPECT THAT IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO ENOUGH
THAT WE CAN CANCEL ALL MARINE HEADLINES BY 03Z.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 127 ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...NJJ








000
FXUS63 KGRR 290159
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
959 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE
RECOVERING TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY THIS WEEK... PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

HUDSON BAY VORTEX/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP COOL TEMPS LOCKED
IN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COLD TEMPS ALOFT OF AROUND -17C AT H5 WILL
SUPPORT DIURNAL FLARE UPS OF CONVECTION... ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 131 INLAND FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND
IN AREA OF BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW/LAKE BREEZE.

MODELS SHOW DECENT COVERAGE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND CLARE/MT PLEASANT/ALMA/LAN/JXN AREAS. GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE NAM... SHOWING 1000-1500 J/KG
SB CAPE WHILE NAM IS MORE LIKE 500-1000. EITHER WAY THAT IS ENOUGH
TO HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FCST. THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 9300 FT SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL (PEA TO
PERHAPS MARBLE SIZE) IN ANY STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER THE CAPE IS
THIN... ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM... SUGGESTING WEAK UPDRAFTS.

WILL HAVE LOWER POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
LESS (ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE). MODELS ALSO FOCUS BEST
SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94 DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY THAN WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING OUT AND DEAMPLIFYING AS
IT MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

HOWEVER THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH THE
WESTERN CONUS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF A
TROUGH OVER OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD AVERAGE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES BY 03Z OR SO AND
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT... MOSTLY LESS THAN 5 KNOT. VFR
CONDITIONS...SHOULD PREVAIL.

LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND AREA OF SHOWERS AND LOWER
CIGS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT 23Z IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND 09Z. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT
FOR NOW WENT WITH VCSH. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY HAVE SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. CIGS MAY BECOME MVFR AS THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS MOVE INTO THE AREA.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE STEADY DROP IN WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY AS EXPECTED...AND WAVES ARE LAGGING...BUT FOLLOWING
SUIT. MOST OF THE NEARSHORE HAS DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...EXCEPT FOR THE ST. JOSEPH BUOY WHICH IS AT 5+ FT AT
0140Z SOUTH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. EVEN THIS BUOY IS COMING DOWN
STEADILY...AND WE EXPECT THAT IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO ENOUGH
THAT WE CAN CANCEL ALL MARINE HEADLINES BY 03Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 127 ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...NJJ








000
FXUS63 KGRR 290159
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
959 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE
RECOVERING TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY THIS WEEK... PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

HUDSON BAY VORTEX/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP COOL TEMPS LOCKED
IN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COLD TEMPS ALOFT OF AROUND -17C AT H5 WILL
SUPPORT DIURNAL FLARE UPS OF CONVECTION... ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 131 INLAND FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND
IN AREA OF BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW/LAKE BREEZE.

MODELS SHOW DECENT COVERAGE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND CLARE/MT PLEASANT/ALMA/LAN/JXN AREAS. GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE NAM... SHOWING 1000-1500 J/KG
SB CAPE WHILE NAM IS MORE LIKE 500-1000. EITHER WAY THAT IS ENOUGH
TO HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FCST. THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 9300 FT SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL (PEA TO
PERHAPS MARBLE SIZE) IN ANY STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER THE CAPE IS
THIN... ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM... SUGGESTING WEAK UPDRAFTS.

WILL HAVE LOWER POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
LESS (ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE). MODELS ALSO FOCUS BEST
SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94 DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY THAN WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING OUT AND DEAMPLIFYING AS
IT MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

HOWEVER THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH THE
WESTERN CONUS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF A
TROUGH OVER OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD AVERAGE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES BY 03Z OR SO AND
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT... MOSTLY LESS THAN 5 KNOT. VFR
CONDITIONS...SHOULD PREVAIL.

LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND AREA OF SHOWERS AND LOWER
CIGS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT 23Z IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND 09Z. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT
FOR NOW WENT WITH VCSH. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY HAVE SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. CIGS MAY BECOME MVFR AS THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS MOVE INTO THE AREA.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE STEADY DROP IN WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY AS EXPECTED...AND WAVES ARE LAGGING...BUT FOLLOWING
SUIT. MOST OF THE NEARSHORE HAS DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...EXCEPT FOR THE ST. JOSEPH BUOY WHICH IS AT 5+ FT AT
0140Z SOUTH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. EVEN THIS BUOY IS COMING DOWN
STEADILY...AND WE EXPECT THAT IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO ENOUGH
THAT WE CAN CANCEL ALL MARINE HEADLINES BY 03Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 127 ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 282348
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
748 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE
RECOVERING TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY THIS WEEK... PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

HUDSON BAY VORTEX/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP COOL TEMPS LOCKED
IN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COLD TEMPS ALOFT OF AROUND -17C AT H5 WILL
SUPPORT DIURNAL FLARE UPS OF CONVECTION... ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 131 INLAND FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND
IN AREA OF BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW/LAKE BREEZE.

MODELS SHOW DECENT COVERAGE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND CLARE/MT PLEASANT/ALMA/LAN/JXN AREAS. GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE NAM... SHOWING 1000-1500 J/KG
SB CAPE WHILE NAM IS MORE LIKE 500-1000. EITHER WAY THAT IS ENOUGH
TO HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FCST. THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 9300 FT SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL (PEA TO
PERHAPS MARBLE SIZE) IN ANY STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER THE CAPE IS
THIN... ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM... SUGGESTING WEAK UPDRAFTS.

WILL HAVE LOWER POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
LESS (ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE). MODELS ALSO FOCUS BEST
SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94 DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY THAN WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING OUT AND DEAMPLIFYING AS
IT MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

HOWEVER THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH THE
WESTERN CONUS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF A
TROUGH OVER OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD AVERAGE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES BY 03Z OR SO AND
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT... MOSTLY LESS THAN 5 KNOT. VFR
CONDITIONS...SHOULD PREVAIL.

LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND AREA OF SHOWERS AND LOWER
CIGS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT 23Z IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND 09Z. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT
FOR NOW WENT WITH VCSH. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY HAVE SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. CIGS MAY BECOME MVFR AS THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

THERE HAS BEEN SOME 8-9 FOOTERS REPORTED OVER SOUTHERN LK MI TODAY
IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE SUBSIDING
CONSIDERABLY LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 127 ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 282348
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
748 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE
RECOVERING TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY THIS WEEK... PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

HUDSON BAY VORTEX/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP COOL TEMPS LOCKED
IN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COLD TEMPS ALOFT OF AROUND -17C AT H5 WILL
SUPPORT DIURNAL FLARE UPS OF CONVECTION... ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 131 INLAND FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND
IN AREA OF BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW/LAKE BREEZE.

MODELS SHOW DECENT COVERAGE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND CLARE/MT PLEASANT/ALMA/LAN/JXN AREAS. GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE NAM... SHOWING 1000-1500 J/KG
SB CAPE WHILE NAM IS MORE LIKE 500-1000. EITHER WAY THAT IS ENOUGH
TO HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FCST. THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 9300 FT SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL (PEA TO
PERHAPS MARBLE SIZE) IN ANY STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER THE CAPE IS
THIN... ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM... SUGGESTING WEAK UPDRAFTS.

WILL HAVE LOWER POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
LESS (ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE). MODELS ALSO FOCUS BEST
SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94 DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY THAN WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING OUT AND DEAMPLIFYING AS
IT MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

HOWEVER THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH THE
WESTERN CONUS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF A
TROUGH OVER OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD AVERAGE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES BY 03Z OR SO AND
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT... MOSTLY LESS THAN 5 KNOT. VFR
CONDITIONS...SHOULD PREVAIL.

LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND AREA OF SHOWERS AND LOWER
CIGS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT 23Z IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND 09Z. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT
FOR NOW WENT WITH VCSH. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY HAVE SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. CIGS MAY BECOME MVFR AS THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

THERE HAS BEEN SOME 8-9 FOOTERS REPORTED OVER SOUTHERN LK MI TODAY
IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE SUBSIDING
CONSIDERABLY LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 127 ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE







000
FXUS63 KGRR 281930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE
RECOVERING TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY THIS WEEK... PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

HUDSON BAY VORTEX/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP COOL TEMPS LOCKED
IN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COLD TEMPS ALOFT OF AROUND -17C AT H5 WILL
SUPPORT DIURNAL FLARE UPS OF CONVECTION... ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 131 INLAND FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND
IN AREA OF BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW/LAKE BREEZE.

MODELS SHOW DECENT COVERAGE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND CLARE/MT PLEASANT/ALMA/LAN/JXN AREAS. GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE NAM... SHOWING 1000-1500 J/KG
SB CAPE WHILE NAM IS MORE LIKE 500-1000. EITHER WAY THAT IS ENOUGH
TO HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FCST. THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 9300 FT SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL (PEA TO
PERHAPS MARBLE SIZE) IN ANY STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER THE CAPE IS
THIN... ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM... SUGGESTING WEAK UPDRAFTS.

WILL HAVE LOWER POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
LESS (ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE). MODELS ALSO FOCUS BEST
SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94 DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY THAN WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING OUT AND DEAMPLIFYING AS
IT MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

HOWEVER THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH THE
WESTERN CONUS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF A
TROUGH OVER OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD AVERAGE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A BROKEN
DECK OF MAINLY MID CLOUD COVER. NNW WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS
THIS AFTN BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

THERE HAS BEEN SOME 8-9 FOOTERS REPORTED OVER SOUTHERN LK MI TODAY
IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE SUBSIDING
CONSIDERABLY LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 127 ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE











000
FXUS63 KGRR 281930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE
RECOVERING TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY THIS WEEK... PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

HUDSON BAY VORTEX/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP COOL TEMPS LOCKED
IN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COLD TEMPS ALOFT OF AROUND -17C AT H5 WILL
SUPPORT DIURNAL FLARE UPS OF CONVECTION... ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 131 INLAND FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND
IN AREA OF BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW/LAKE BREEZE.

MODELS SHOW DECENT COVERAGE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND CLARE/MT PLEASANT/ALMA/LAN/JXN AREAS. GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE NAM... SHOWING 1000-1500 J/KG
SB CAPE WHILE NAM IS MORE LIKE 500-1000. EITHER WAY THAT IS ENOUGH
TO HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FCST. THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 9300 FT SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL (PEA TO
PERHAPS MARBLE SIZE) IN ANY STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER THE CAPE IS
THIN... ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM... SUGGESTING WEAK UPDRAFTS.

WILL HAVE LOWER POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
LESS (ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE). MODELS ALSO FOCUS BEST
SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94 DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY THAN WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING OUT AND DEAMPLIFYING AS
IT MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

HOWEVER THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH THE
WESTERN CONUS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF A
TROUGH OVER OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD AVERAGE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A BROKEN
DECK OF MAINLY MID CLOUD COVER. NNW WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS
THIS AFTN BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

THERE HAS BEEN SOME 8-9 FOOTERS REPORTED OVER SOUTHERN LK MI TODAY
IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE SUBSIDING
CONSIDERABLY LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 127 ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE










000
FXUS63 KGRR 281619
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1220 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FLOWING SOUTH FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BY TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SOME SOME SMALL HAIL. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL TAKE HIGHS TO THE
UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

COLD ADVECTION/CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN IS RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE
STRATUS THIS MORNING SO HAVE UPDATED THE FCST TO BE MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST PTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR FROM THE NORTH AND DEEPER MIXING. ALSO A LAKE SHADOW OF
CLEARER SKIES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE LK MI COAST. MEANWHILE
THE LAN/JXN AREAS MAY STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY THE BULK OF THE DAY WHERE
DIURNAL CU SCHEMES ARE STRONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THAT WILL
LIKELY GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE. AT THE SAME TIME MUCH COOLER AIR
ALOFT...H5 TEMPS FALLING TO -17C WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES. LI`S
NEAR -1C AND MUCAPE AROUND 700 J/KG COUPLED WITH THE COMBINATION OF
THE HEATING AND INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AND SOME
OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL.

COOL TEMPS ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY MAY RESULT IN SOME SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT TOO. HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY ARE NOT AS STRONG AS
TUESDAY SO OUR POPS ARE LOWER.

FOR TODAY WE/LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE. RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED BY 12Z. LATEST IR
LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND SO WE EXPECT
SOME SUNSHINE TODAY. VERY COOL WEATHER FOR LATE JULY THOUGH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS IT
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE THEME OF UPPER
TROUGHING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS CANADA...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME TROUGHING THAT
PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...THERE
ISN/T MUCH TO KEY ON. EXPECT SOME WEAK TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AROUND THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. HAVE POPS NEAR 30 PCT EACH
DAY DURING THE THURS-SAT TIME FRAME. HAVE SUNDAY DRY AT THIS POINT
BUT IT MAY BE ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME DIURNAL PRECIP AS WELL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A BROKEN
DECK OF MAINLY MID CLOUD COVER. NNW WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS
THIS AFTN BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. SCA AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
REMAIN IN EFFECT. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN NEARSHORE ZONES
IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE. HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...93










000
FXUS63 KGRR 281619
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1220 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FLOWING SOUTH FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BY TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SOME SOME SMALL HAIL. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL TAKE HIGHS TO THE
UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

COLD ADVECTION/CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN IS RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE
STRATUS THIS MORNING SO HAVE UPDATED THE FCST TO BE MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST PTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR FROM THE NORTH AND DEEPER MIXING. ALSO A LAKE SHADOW OF
CLEARER SKIES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE LK MI COAST. MEANWHILE
THE LAN/JXN AREAS MAY STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY THE BULK OF THE DAY WHERE
DIURNAL CU SCHEMES ARE STRONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THAT WILL
LIKELY GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE. AT THE SAME TIME MUCH COOLER AIR
ALOFT...H5 TEMPS FALLING TO -17C WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES. LI`S
NEAR -1C AND MUCAPE AROUND 700 J/KG COUPLED WITH THE COMBINATION OF
THE HEATING AND INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AND SOME
OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL.

COOL TEMPS ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY MAY RESULT IN SOME SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT TOO. HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY ARE NOT AS STRONG AS
TUESDAY SO OUR POPS ARE LOWER.

FOR TODAY WE/LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE. RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED BY 12Z. LATEST IR
LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND SO WE EXPECT
SOME SUNSHINE TODAY. VERY COOL WEATHER FOR LATE JULY THOUGH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS IT
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE THEME OF UPPER
TROUGHING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS CANADA...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME TROUGHING THAT
PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...THERE
ISN/T MUCH TO KEY ON. EXPECT SOME WEAK TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AROUND THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. HAVE POPS NEAR 30 PCT EACH
DAY DURING THE THURS-SAT TIME FRAME. HAVE SUNDAY DRY AT THIS POINT
BUT IT MAY BE ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME DIURNAL PRECIP AS WELL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A BROKEN
DECK OF MAINLY MID CLOUD COVER. NNW WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS
THIS AFTN BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. SCA AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
REMAIN IN EFFECT. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN NEARSHORE ZONES
IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE. HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...93











000
FXUS63 KGRR 281440
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1040 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FLOWING SOUTH FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BY TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SOME SOME SMALL HAIL. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL TAKE HIGHS TO THE
UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

COLD ADVECTION/CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN IS RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE
STRATUS THIS MORNING SO HAVE UPDATED THE FCST TO BE MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST PTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR FROM THE NORTH AND DEEPER MIXING. ALSO A LAKE SHADOW OF
CLEARER SKIES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE LK MI COAST. MEANWHILE
THE LAN/JXN AREAS MAY STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY THE BULK OF THE DAY WHERE
DIURNAL CU SCHEMES ARE STRONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THAT WILL
LIKELY GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE. AT THE SAME TIME MUCH COOLER AIR
ALOFT...H5 TEMPS FALLING TO -17C WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES. LI`S
NEAR -1C AND MUCAPE AROUND 700 J/KG COUPLED WITH THE COMBINATION OF
THE HEATING AND INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AND SOME
OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL.

COOL TEMPS ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY MAY RESULT IN SOME SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT TOO. HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY ARE NOT AS STRONG AS
TUESDAY SO OUR POPS ARE LOWER.

FOR TODAY WE/LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE. RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED BY 12Z. LATEST IR
LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND SO WE EXPECT
SOME SUNSHINE TODAY. VERY COOL WEATHER FOR LATE JULY THOUGH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS IT
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE THEME OF UPPER
TROUGHING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS CANADA...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME TROUGHING THAT
PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...THERE
ISN/T MUCH TO KEY ON. EXPECT SOME WEAK TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AROUND THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. HAVE POPS NEAR 30 PCT EACH
DAY DURING THE THURS-SAT TIME FRAME. HAVE SUNDAY DRY AT THIS POINT
BUT IT MAY BE ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME DIURNAL PRECIP AS WELL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SOME MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 15Z OR
SO...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE AFTER. CEILINGS IN THE
1000-3000FT RANGE THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT INTO THE 3500-5000FT
RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 5000FT
ARE EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM OF THE NORTH.
CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY TODAY WITH A GUSTY NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND OF 10-22 KNOTS. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. SCA AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
REMAIN IN EFFECT. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN NEARSHORE ZONES
IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE. HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...93








000
FXUS63 KGRR 281144
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
744 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FLOWING SOUTH FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BY TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SOME SOME SMALL HAIL. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL TAKE HIGHS TO THE
UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THAT WILL
LIKELY GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE. AT THE SAME TIME MUCH COOLER AIR
ALOFT...H5 TEMPS FALLING TO -17C WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES. LI`S
NEAR -1C AND MUCAPE AROUND 700 J/KG COUPLED WITH THE COMBINATION OF
THE HEATING AND INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AND SOME
OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL.

COOL TEMPS ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY MAY RESULT IN SOME SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT TOO. HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY ARE NOT AS STRONG AS
TUESDAY SO OUR POPS ARE LOWER.

FOR TODAY WE/LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE. RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED BY 12Z. LATEST IR
LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND SO WE EXPECT
SOME SUNSHINE TODAY. VERY COOL WEATHER FOR LATE JULY THOUGH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS IT
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE THEME OF UPPER
TROUGHING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS CANADA...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME TROUGHING THAT
PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...THERE
ISN/T MUCH TO KEY ON. EXPECT SOME WEAK TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AROUND THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. HAVE POPS NEAR 30 PCT EACH
DAY DURING THE THURS-SAT TIME FRAME. HAVE SUNDAY DRY AT THIS POINT
BUT IT MAY BE ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME DIURNAL PRECIP AS WELL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SOME MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 15Z OR
SO...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE AFTER. CEILINGS IN THE
1000-3000FT RANGE THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT INTO THE 3500-5000FT
RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 5000FT
ARE EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM OF THE NORTH.
CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY TODAY WITH A GUSTY NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND OF 10-22 KNOTS. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. SCA AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
REMAIN IN EFFECT. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN NEARSHORE ZONES
IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE. HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...93








000
FXUS63 KGRR 281144
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
744 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FLOWING SOUTH FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BY TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SOME SOME SMALL HAIL. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL TAKE HIGHS TO THE
UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THAT WILL
LIKELY GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE. AT THE SAME TIME MUCH COOLER AIR
ALOFT...H5 TEMPS FALLING TO -17C WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES. LI`S
NEAR -1C AND MUCAPE AROUND 700 J/KG COUPLED WITH THE COMBINATION OF
THE HEATING AND INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AND SOME
OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL.

COOL TEMPS ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY MAY RESULT IN SOME SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT TOO. HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY ARE NOT AS STRONG AS
TUESDAY SO OUR POPS ARE LOWER.

FOR TODAY WE/LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE. RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED BY 12Z. LATEST IR
LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND SO WE EXPECT
SOME SUNSHINE TODAY. VERY COOL WEATHER FOR LATE JULY THOUGH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS IT
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE THEME OF UPPER
TROUGHING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS CANADA...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME TROUGHING THAT
PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...THERE
ISN/T MUCH TO KEY ON. EXPECT SOME WEAK TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AROUND THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. HAVE POPS NEAR 30 PCT EACH
DAY DURING THE THURS-SAT TIME FRAME. HAVE SUNDAY DRY AT THIS POINT
BUT IT MAY BE ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME DIURNAL PRECIP AS WELL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SOME MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 15Z OR
SO...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE AFTER. CEILINGS IN THE
1000-3000FT RANGE THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT INTO THE 3500-5000FT
RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 5000FT
ARE EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM OF THE NORTH.
CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY TODAY WITH A GUSTY NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND OF 10-22 KNOTS. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. SCA AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
REMAIN IN EFFECT. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN NEARSHORE ZONES
IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE. HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...93







000
FXUS63 KGRR 280727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FLOWING SOUTH FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BY TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SOME SOME SMALL HAIL. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL TAKE HIGHS TO THE
UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THAT WILL
LIKELY GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE. AT THE SAME TIME MUCH COOLER AIR
ALOFT...H5 TEMPS FALLING TO -17C WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES. LI`S
NEAR -1C AND MUCAPE AROUND 700 J/KG COUPLED WITH THE COMBINATION OF
THE HEATING AND INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AND SOME
OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL.

COOL TEMPS ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY MAY RESULT IN SOME SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT TOO. HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY ARE NOT AS STRONG AS
TUESDAY SO OUR POPS ARE LOWER.

FOR TODAY WE/LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE. RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED BY 12Z. LATEST IR
LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND SO WE EXPECT
SOME SUNSHINE TODAY. VERY COOL WEATHER FOR LATE JULY THOUGH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS IT
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE THEME OF UPPER
TROUGHING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS CANADA...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME TROUGHING THAT
PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...THERE
ISN/T MUCH TO KEY ON. EXPECT SOME WEAK TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AROUND THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. HAVE POPS NEAR 30 PCT EACH
DAY DURING THE THURS-SAT TIME FRAME. HAVE SUNDAY DRY AT THIS POINT
BUT IT MAY BE ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME DIURNAL PRECIP AS WELL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH INCREASES CIGS HEIGHTS TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THAT TAF
SITES BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. SCA AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
REMAIN IN EFFECT. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN NEARSHORE ZONES
IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE. HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...93











000
FXUS63 KGRR 280727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FLOWING SOUTH FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BY TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SOME SOME SMALL HAIL. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL TAKE HIGHS TO THE
UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THAT WILL
LIKELY GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE. AT THE SAME TIME MUCH COOLER AIR
ALOFT...H5 TEMPS FALLING TO -17C WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES. LI`S
NEAR -1C AND MUCAPE AROUND 700 J/KG COUPLED WITH THE COMBINATION OF
THE HEATING AND INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AND SOME
OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL.

COOL TEMPS ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY MAY RESULT IN SOME SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT TOO. HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY ARE NOT AS STRONG AS
TUESDAY SO OUR POPS ARE LOWER.

FOR TODAY WE/LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE. RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED BY 12Z. LATEST IR
LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND SO WE EXPECT
SOME SUNSHINE TODAY. VERY COOL WEATHER FOR LATE JULY THOUGH WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS IT
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE THEME OF UPPER
TROUGHING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS CANADA...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME TROUGHING THAT
PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...THERE
ISN/T MUCH TO KEY ON. EXPECT SOME WEAK TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AROUND THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. HAVE POPS NEAR 30 PCT EACH
DAY DURING THE THURS-SAT TIME FRAME. HAVE SUNDAY DRY AT THIS POINT
BUT IT MAY BE ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME DIURNAL PRECIP AS WELL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH INCREASES CIGS HEIGHTS TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THAT TAF
SITES BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. SCA AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
REMAIN IN EFFECT. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN NEARSHORE ZONES
IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE. HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...93












000
FXUS63 KGRR 280347
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1147 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS THEN...SO I WENT
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP TUESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK GOING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. I FEATURED
SCT/WDLY SCT STORMS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WED AND THU. FOR
FRI AND SAT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...SO SOMEWHAT OF A LESSER
RISK FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH INCREASES CIGS HEIGHTS TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THAT TAF
SITES BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. THAT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 4 FEET. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SET OF
HEADLINES GOING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 280347
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1147 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS THEN...SO I WENT
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP TUESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK GOING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. I FEATURED
SCT/WDLY SCT STORMS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WED AND THU. FOR
FRI AND SAT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...SO SOMEWHAT OF A LESSER
RISK FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH INCREASES CIGS HEIGHTS TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THAT TAF
SITES BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. THAT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 4 FEET. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SET OF
HEADLINES GOING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 272359
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
759 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS THEN...SO I WENT
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP TUESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK GOING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. I FEATURED
SCT/WDLY SCT STORMS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WED AND THU. FOR
FRI AND SAT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...SO SOMEWHAT OF A LESSER
RISK FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE STORMS ARE EXITING THE AREA BUT NOW I AM WATCHING AN AREA OF
MVFR CIGS EXPANDING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. I
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BECOME MVFR BY 06Z OR SOONER. THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.
EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. THAT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 4 FEET. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SET OF
HEADLINES GOING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 272359
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
759 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS THEN...SO I WENT
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP TUESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK GOING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. I FEATURED
SCT/WDLY SCT STORMS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WED AND THU. FOR
FRI AND SAT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...SO SOMEWHAT OF A LESSER
RISK FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE STORMS ARE EXITING THE AREA BUT NOW I AM WATCHING AN AREA OF
MVFR CIGS EXPANDING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. I
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BECOME MVFR BY 06Z OR SOONER. THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.
EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. THAT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 4 FEET. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SET OF
HEADLINES GOING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 272325 AAB
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
725 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WE WILL SHORTLY DROP THE REMAINDER OF OUR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
AS THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THE AREA OF MIX
LAYER CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GRR
COUNTY WARNING AREA. ALSO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE CONVECTION
EARLIER HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE STORMS CURRENTLY NEAR LANSING. SO I
WOULD EXPECT THESE STORMS TO WEAKEN.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS THEN...SO I WENT
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP TUESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK GOING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. I FEATURED
SCT/WDLY SCT STORMS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WED AND THU. FOR
FRI AND SAT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...SO SOMEWHAT OF A LESSER
RISK FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 22-23Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
IF/WHEN ANY STRONGER CELLS IMPACT A TERMINAL... LOOK FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED BY
LOWERING CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ON MONDAY
THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY NOON ALTHOUGH GUSTY
NORTH SFC WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. THAT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 4 FEET. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SET OF
HEADLINES GOING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 272325 AAB
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
725 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WE WILL SHORTLY DROP THE REMAINDER OF OUR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
AS THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THE AREA OF MIX
LAYER CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GRR
COUNTY WARNING AREA. ALSO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE CONVECTION
EARLIER HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE STORMS CURRENTLY NEAR LANSING. SO I
WOULD EXPECT THESE STORMS TO WEAKEN.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS THEN...SO I WENT
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP TUESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK GOING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. I FEATURED
SCT/WDLY SCT STORMS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WED AND THU. FOR
FRI AND SAT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...SO SOMEWHAT OF A LESSER
RISK FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 22-23Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
IF/WHEN ANY STRONGER CELLS IMPACT A TERMINAL... LOOK FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED BY
LOWERING CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ON MONDAY
THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY NOON ALTHOUGH GUSTY
NORTH SFC WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. THAT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 4 FEET. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SET OF
HEADLINES GOING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 272146
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
546 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 545 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE BEST INSTABILITY...OVER 1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW
EAST OF US-131 AND THE AREA OF EFFECTIVE BULK WIND SHEAR OVER 30
KNOTS IS ALSO NOW EAST OF US-131. SO I EXPECT THE SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE MOSTLY EAST OF US-131 AFTER 6 PM. AS A RESULT I WILL DROP
THE WESTERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH BY 6 PM. MEANWHILE
WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTING I ADDITION STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 PM.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS THEN...SO I WENT
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP TUESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK GOING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. I FEATURED
SCT/WDLY SCT STORMS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WED AND THU. FOR
FRI AND SAT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...SO SOMEWHAT OF A LESSER
RISK FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 22-23Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
IF/WHEN ANY STRONGER CELLS IMPACT A TERMINAL... LOOK FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED BY
LOWERING CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ON MONDAY
THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY NOON ALTHOUGH GUSTY
NORTH SFC WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. THAT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 4 FEET. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SET OF
HEADLINES GOING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 271924
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS THEN...SO I WENT
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP TUESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK GOING.



.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. I FEATURED
SCT/WDLY SCT STORMS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WED AND THU. FOR
FRI AND SAT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...SO SOMEWHAT OF A LESSER
RISK FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 22-23Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
IF/WHEN ANY STRONGER CELLS IMPACT A TERMINAL... LOOK FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED BY
LOWERING CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ON MONDAY
THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY NOON ALTHOUGH GUSTY
NORTH SFC WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. THAT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 4 FEET. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SET OF
HEADLINES GOING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 271856
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
256 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS HAVE BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVING IN. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS CHARACTERIZED WITH 2000 J/KG ML CAPE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS GREATER THAN 35 KNOTS. THE CAPE IS HIGH IN THE -10
TO -30 DEG C LAYER. THUS THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS RISK EXISTS AS
WELL...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER MONDAY AND
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NOT MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUES FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS
GOING GIVEN THE CURRENT DESTABILIZATION AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL
WAVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96 AND HAVE CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER. HOWEVER HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY
UP OVER THE LK MI NEARSHORE AREA FOR NOW AS WEB CAMS AT THE COAST
STILL REVEAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG.

EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT TOWARD NOON. LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS
STILL SHOWING 2000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY 18Z WITH FAT
CAPE PROFILES. THE SIG HAIL PARAMETER FROM SPC MESO PAGE IS
ALREADY 1-1.5 WITH H7-H5 MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C.
THEREFORE THE GREATEST THREAT AT LEAST INITIALLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY.
OVERALL...OUR THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER...THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SHEAR VALUES.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ATTM. A FEW
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED AND PRODUCED 2 INCH HAIL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THOUGH AS THEY`VE
OUTRUN THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS IS PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LI`S AROUND -6C COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
40 KTS AND STRONG PVA SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS TODAY. FAVORED TIME FRAME IS FROM AROUND 11 AM
THROUGH 3-4 PM. FAVORED AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGH
LIKELY AND ABOVE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS TODAY. CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT COMING IN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING
AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY SO WE INCLUDED CHC
POPS FOR THAT. H5 TEMPS FALL 4C FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SO
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A BIT. WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL OUT
OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT COOLER AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
END UP BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACTUAL HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE FORECAST THEME OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
COMBINED WITH JULY SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL VORT LOBE IS
FORECAST TO SWING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...BRUSHING THE LOWER
PENINSULA.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EVEN INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S AS THE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT A WASH
OUT IN THE LONG TERM BY ANY MEANS...BUT A FLARE UP IN COVERAGE EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 22-23Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
IF/WHEN ANY STRONGER CELLS IMPACT A TERMINAL... LOOK FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED BY
LOWERING CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ON MONDAY
THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY NOON ALTHOUGH GUSTY
NORTH SFC WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WEBCAMS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FOG ON
THE LAKESHORE. THE ADVISORY FOR FOG WAS STRETCHED INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHIFT AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LATER TODAY WILL
BREAK UP THE FOG.

HIGH POTENTIAL FOR BEACH HAZARDS AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT INTO  MONDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...MJS
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 271856
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
256 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS HAVE BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVING IN. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS CHARACTERIZED WITH 2000 J/KG ML CAPE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS GREATER THAN 35 KNOTS. THE CAPE IS HIGH IN THE -10
TO -30 DEG C LAYER. THUS THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS RISK EXISTS AS
WELL...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER MONDAY AND
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NOT MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUES FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS
GOING GIVEN THE CURRENT DESTABILIZATION AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL
WAVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96 AND HAVE CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER. HOWEVER HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY
UP OVER THE LK MI NEARSHORE AREA FOR NOW AS WEB CAMS AT THE COAST
STILL REVEAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG.

EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT TOWARD NOON. LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS
STILL SHOWING 2000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY 18Z WITH FAT
CAPE PROFILES. THE SIG HAIL PARAMETER FROM SPC MESO PAGE IS
ALREADY 1-1.5 WITH H7-H5 MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C.
THEREFORE THE GREATEST THREAT AT LEAST INITIALLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY.
OVERALL...OUR THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER...THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SHEAR VALUES.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ATTM. A FEW
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED AND PRODUCED 2 INCH HAIL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THOUGH AS THEY`VE
OUTRUN THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS IS PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LI`S AROUND -6C COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
40 KTS AND STRONG PVA SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS TODAY. FAVORED TIME FRAME IS FROM AROUND 11 AM
THROUGH 3-4 PM. FAVORED AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGH
LIKELY AND ABOVE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS TODAY. CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT COMING IN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING
AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY SO WE INCLUDED CHC
POPS FOR THAT. H5 TEMPS FALL 4C FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SO
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A BIT. WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL OUT
OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT COOLER AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
END UP BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACTUAL HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE FORECAST THEME OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
COMBINED WITH JULY SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL VORT LOBE IS
FORECAST TO SWING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...BRUSHING THE LOWER
PENINSULA.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EVEN INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S AS THE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT A WASH
OUT IN THE LONG TERM BY ANY MEANS...BUT A FLARE UP IN COVERAGE EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 22-23Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
IF/WHEN ANY STRONGER CELLS IMPACT A TERMINAL... LOOK FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED BY
LOWERING CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ON MONDAY
THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY NOON ALTHOUGH GUSTY
NORTH SFC WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WEBCAMS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FOG ON
THE LAKESHORE. THE ADVISORY FOR FOG WAS STRETCHED INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHIFT AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LATER TODAY WILL
BREAK UP THE FOG.

HIGH POTENTIAL FOR BEACH HAZARDS AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT INTO  MONDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...MJS
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS








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