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000
FXUS63 KGRR 241800
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
200 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Hydro

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

High pressure will slip away from the region today but should
provide one more dry day. A persistent southerly flow of air will
bring very warm and humid conditions for the mid to late week period
along with a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

The sfc front remains to our west today and will be the primary
focus for convection. Will have a dry fcst with the exception of low
chance pops north of mkg late in the day as the front gets a bit
closer. Otherwise the stable southwest flow off lake michigan,
lack of any focus for convection, and capes of only a few hundred
joules support a dry fcst.

Even tonight as the front comes into the area the coverage of rain
should be minimal as diurnal component is lost, and will carry only
low chance pops. Actually the sfc front weakens overhead and becomes
rather ill-defined, then begins to rebound north as a warm front on
Wednesday. Better instability is progged on Wednesday with sfc based
capes near 2000 J/KG. However it`s unclear if the warm front will
still be in our area or will have lifted into nrn lower mi. Diurnal
convection should tend to favor the sfc convergence along this
boundary.

The best chance of showers and storms in the short term period is on
Wednesday night as a shortwave and 40 kt low level jet impact
the area. Will carry likely pops during this time. After this
activity moves out of the area Thursday morning, some scattered
diurnal convection could re-fire east of the lake breeze front in the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

Little change to the extended portion of the forecast.  The area
will remain warmer than normal, but periodic rains will be possible.

Upper ridging will still prevail over the eastern U.S. through the
weekend and into next week. This will continue to pump a warm and
moist air mass into the Great Lakes. This will keep daytime temps in
the upper 70s to mid 80s each day.  There should also be a period
from Thursday Night into Saturday where we should be rather humid,
with dew points expected to be in the 60s.

Showers and thunderstorms will be a possibility however through the
period.  The best chance of pcpn seems to be Friday and Saturday
when a northward moving low level jet sets up over the western Great
Lakes.  This will put Lower Michigan in an area of low level
convergence that will work with instability across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

The moisture will be gradually increasing through the period.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over in WI this
afternoon and evening. As they shift east...they are expected to
weaken. Thus I will only feature a VCSH for KMKG tonight. VFR
clouds will spread into the remainder of the taf sites through the
night. A small risk for fog exists tonight and Wednesday morning.
With Lake MI cold...fog could begin forming as the moist airmass
moves in. This risk will grow as the go through the remainder of
the week. For now...forecasted surface dewpoints into Wednesday
morning do not look high enough to support widespread fog near
KMKG. That could change by Thursday morning.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

Arrival of higher dew points over the cool lake michigan waters may
lead to areas of dense marine fog as we go through the week. Winds
and waves are expected to remain below advisory criteria in the
short term.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

Periodic showers and thunderstorms will move through the region
especially Wednesday night, Friday and Saturday. However, overall
rainfall amounts will likely be variable across the area. Some
locations may pick up well over an inch of rain through the
weekend, while other places much less. A good portion of the more
widespread rainfall could occur Wednesday night as a warm front
lifts through. Thursday and beyond will feature some diurnally
driven convection that could produce locally heavy rainfall...but
basin average rainfall is not expected to be excessive. Smaller
creeks and rivers could be susceptible to quick rises given this
setup. Main stem river flooding does not look likely.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Meade
SHORT TERM...Meade
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...Hoving
MARINE...Meade





000
FXUS63 KGRR 241150
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
750 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

High pressure will slip away from the region today but should
provide one more dry day. A persistent southerly flow of air will
bring very warm and humid conditions for the mid to late week period
along with a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

The sfc front remains to our west today and will be the primary
focus for convection. Will have a dry fcst with the exception of low
chance pops north of mkg late in the day as the front gets a bit
closer. Otherwise the stable southwest flow off lake michigan,
lack of any focus for convection, and capes of only a few hundred
joules support a dry fcst.

Even tonight as the front comes into the area the coverage of rain
should be minimal as diurnal component is lost, and will carry only
low chance pops. Actually the sfc front weakens overhead and becomes
rather ill-defined, then begins to rebound north as a warm front on
Wednesday. Better instability is progged on Wednesday with sfc based
capes near 2000 J/KG. However it`s unclear if the warm front will
still be in our area or will have lifted into nrn lower mi. Diurnal
convection should tend to favor the sfc convergence along this
boundary.

The best chance of showers and storms in the short term period is on
Wednesday night as a shortwave and 40 kt low level jet impact
the area. Will carry likely pops during this time. After this
activity moves out of the area Thursday morning, some scattered
diurnal convection could re-fire east of the lake breeze front in the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

Little change to the extended portion of the forecast.  The area
will remain warmer than normal, but periodic rains will be possible.

Upper ridging will still prevail over the eastern U.S. through the
weekend and into next week. This will continue to pump a warm and
moist air mass into the Great Lakes. This will keep daytime temps in
the upper 70s to mid 80s each day.  There should also be a period
from Thursday Night into Saturday where we should be rather humid,
with dew points expected to be in the 60s.

Showers and thunderstorms will be a possibility however through the
period.  The best chance of pcpn seems to be Friday and Saturday
when a northward moving low level jet sets up over the western Great
Lakes.  This will put Lower Michigan in an area of low level
convergence that will work with instability across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 750 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

VFR will continue to prevail today and tonight with very dry air
still in place. the risk for a shower or storm tonight related to
incoming decaying front is too low to have in the tafs. It is
possible that some fog could develop after 09z Wednesday due to
progged higher dew points but confidence is rather low at this
time. Best chance of that would be at mkg.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

Arrival of higher dew points over the cool lake michigan waters may
lead to areas of dense marine fog as we go through the week. Winds
and waves are expected to remain below advisory criteria in the
short term.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 607 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

Given a summertime convective mode setting up across the region,
localized heavy rain is a possibility at times. While it certainly
won`t rain each day in every location, basin average rainfall may
end up being around an inch through the weekend, but locally more
than that could fall given mainly unidirectional flow...relatively
modest mean flow...and weaker low and mid level winds through the
period. Beginning Wednesday night...precipitable water values of
1.25-1.75 are expected and this will last through the holiday
weekend. Dew points in the 60s will advect in and could approach
70 on Friday. Flooding of main stem rivers does not seem likely at
this point given the synoptic setup, but quick rises of smaller
streams and rivers is a possibility.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Meade
SHORT TERM...Meade
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Meade
HYDROLOGY...Hoving
MARINE...Meade





000
FXUS63 KGRR 240551
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
151 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

It will be warm and gradually become increasingly humid this week
into the holiday weekend. There is just a small chance of a
shower or thunderstorm as early as Tuesday afternoon and evening.
A better chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will come
late in the week and into the holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Our primary short term fcst challenge is to determine potential
for any convection Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. A
frontal boundary moving in from the northwest will focus
development of a few rain showers and perhaps an isolated weak
thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.

Instability tomorrow afternoon and evening looks weak and
southwest winds off cold lake waters will also keep things even
more stable closer to the Lake Michigan shoreline. So we will
maintain only low pops for a shower or isolated storm tomorrow
afternoon through tomorrow night. Many locations in our fcst area
will not receive measurable rainfall in this time frame.

There will be a slightly better chance for a few showers and
storms late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night in the
vicinity of a warm front. A more humid airmass will be in place by
then with dew points by then rising through the mid to upper 50`s
and into the lower 60`s. Weak instability will develop with sb cape
values reaching around 1000 j/kg.

Potential for stronger convection Wednesday is mitigated by several
factors including lack of stronger shear or stronger forcing
mechanism and lack of favorable upper dynamics. In fact weak
shortwave ridging will move overhead. Rh progs suggest potential for
a fair amount of cloud cover that would also keep instability in
check. In fact 12z ECMWF guidance keeps our area dry
Wednesday morning/aftn.

In the near term high pressure will continue to produce mostly clear
skies through this evening as suggested by rgnl ir sat trends and
12z guidance time height RH progs. Mid to high level clouds will
gradually stream in from the west very late tonight and tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Overall the pattern looks warm and unsettled through the period.
Deep southwest flow will be in place through the period...which will
act to keep the temperatures well above normal. With the Gulf of
Mexico open...this will support increasingly humid conditions as
well.

The GFS generates considerable Cape on Thursday with SB values well
over 3k j/kg both Thu and Fri.  However the GFS creates a cap and
shows a stronger mid level ridge.  This would act to limit the
convective risk...and focus it further west of the CWA.  The new
High Res Euro shows tries to show this as well.  Any lifting
mechanisms remain weak.  The High Res Euro shows a low level jet
across southern lower MI Fri. As a result...will keep mainly a
chance for thunderstorms going.

Models are showing better deep layer shear on Saturday along with
favorable instability.  The main reason for this is the mid level
low over the Southwest U.S. is shown to be lifting out and tracking
through the Western Great Lakes then.  If this occurs...an increased
risk for severe would exist.  The High Res Euro is now showing a
cold front pushing out of the Upper Plains and into the Western
Great Lakes on Memorial Day. This would increase the risk for storms
here in MI.  Will keep the mention of storms going over the holiday
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

VFR weather will continue through the next 24 hours. There will be
some increase in the clouds late in the period, but these are
expected to be AOA 5K feet.

SW winds will increase to 10-15 knots by early afternoon, then
diminish again by early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

The potential for areas of marine fog to develop will increase
beginning as early as Tuesday with greater potential for fog mid to
late week as a warmer and more humid airmass overruns cold Lake
Michigan waters. Winds and waves will remain below small craft
criteria through midweek and wave heights will mainly be aob 2 feet.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1229 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

South to southwest flow will develop by Tuesday, allowing for a
moisture laden airmass to park itself through the heart of the
Midwest. This will ultimately lead to an active, wetter pattern
through much of the upcoming week. Though it is not expected to be
continually raining, multiple waves/disturbances will travel from
southwest to northeast through the Great Lakes Region and provide
periods of wet weather. Some long term forecast precipitation
estimates are 2+ inches, in addition to the fact that locally
heavier rain is fairly typical in this type of setup. Despite
recent dry weather, river levels are running slightly above normal
in some locations and could return to near/above bankfull levels,
pending the actual results through next Sunday.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Laurens
SHORT TERM...Laurens
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...Laurens





000
FXUS63 KGRR 232338
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
738 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

It will be warm and gradually become increasingly humid this week
into the holiday weekend. There is just a small chance of a
shower or thunderstorm as early as Tuesday afternoon and evening.
A better chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will come
late in the week and into the holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Our primary short term fcst challenge is to determine potential
for any convection Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. A
frontal boundary moving in from the northwest will focus
development of a few rain showers and perhaps an isolated weak
thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.

Instability tomorrow afternoon and evening looks weak and
southwest winds off cold lake waters will also keep things even
more stable closer to the Lake Michigan shoreline. So we will
maintain only low pops for a shower or isolated storm tomorrow
afternoon through tomorrow night. Many locations in our fcst area
will not receive measurable rainfall in this time frame.

There will be a slightly better chance for a few showers and
storms late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night in the
vicinity of a warm front. A more humid airmass will be in place by
then with dew points by then rising through the mid to upper 50`s
and into the lower 60`s. Weak instability will develop with sb cape
values reaching around 1000 j/kg.

Potential for stronger convection Wednesday is mitigated by several
factors including lack of stronger shear or stronger forcing
mechanism and lack of favorable upper dynamics. In fact weak
shortwave ridging will move overhead. Rh progs suggest potential for
a fair amount of cloud cover that would also keep instability in
check. In fact 12z ecwmf guidance keeps our area dry
Wednesday morning/aftn.

In the near term high pressure will continue to produce mostly clear
skies through this evening as suggested by rgnl ir sat trends and
12z guidance time height rh progs. Mid to high level clouds will
gradually stream in from the west very late tonight and tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Overall the pattern looks warm and unsettled through the period.
Deep southwest flow will be in place through the period...which will
act to keep the temperatures well above normal. With the Gulf of
Mexico open...this will support increasingly humid conditions as
well.

The GFS generates considerable Cape on Thursday with SB values well
over 3k j/kg both Thu and Fri.  However the GFS creates a cap and
shows a stronger mid level ridge.  This would act to limit the
convective risk...and focus it further west of the CWA.  The new
High Res Euro shows tries to show this as well.  Any lifting
mechanisms remain weak.  The High Res Euro shows a low level jet
across southern lower MI Fri. As a result...will keep mainly a
chance for thunderstorms going.

Models are showing better deep layer shear on Saturday along with
favorable instability.  The main reason for this is the mid level
low over the Southwest U.S. is shown to be lifting out and tracking
through the Western Great Lakes then.  If this occurs...an increased
risk for severe would exist.  The High Res Euro is now showing a
cold front pushing out of the Upper Plains and into the Western
Great Lakes on Memorial Day. This would increase the risk for storms
here in MI.  Will keep the mention of storms going over the holiday
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 738 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

There will be just one more day of solid VFR conditions at the
Southwest Michigan TAF sites. the surface high will move east of
the area tuesday. that will allow an increasingly moist southerly
wind flow to develop. Clouds will increase at mid and high levels
later in the day tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

The potential for areas of marine fog to develop will increase
beginning as early as Tuesday with greater potential for fog mid to
late week as a warmer and more humid airmass overruns cold Lake
Michigan waters. Winds and waves will remain below small craft
criteria through midweek and wave heights will mainly be aob 2 feet.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1229 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

South to southwest flow will develop by Tuesday, allowing for a
moisture laden airmass to park itself through the heart of the
Midwest. This will ultimately lead to an active, wetter pattern
through much of the upcoming week. Though it is not expected to be
continually raining, multiple waves/disturbances will travel from
southwest to northeast through the Great Lakes Region and provide
periods of wet weather. Some long term forecast precipitation
estimates are 2+ inches, in addition to the fact that locally
heavier rain is fairly typical in this type of setup. Despite
recent dry weather, river levels are running slightly above normal
in some locations and could return to near/above bankfull levels,
pending the actual results through next Sunday.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Laurens
SHORT TERM...Laurens
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...Laurens





000
FXUS63 KGRR 231128
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
728 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Warm weather with highs near 80 inland from Lake Michigan will
prevail this week into the upcoming holiday weekend. Increasingly
humid conditions will bring a daily risk of showers and
thunderstorms starting Tuesday. However the coverage and duration of
rain will be limited so the week will not be a wash out by any
means.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High amplitude upper level ridge will keep us dry and sunny today.
The combination of a dry air mass with dew points in the 30s to low
40s and full sun could result in superadiabtic lapse rates near the
ground, leading to highs a bit above guidance. Lower 80s for highs
are a good possibility however increasing south winds will lead to
rather cool conditions for the lakeshore north of Muskegon with
highs only in the lower 70s.

Break down of the upper ridge on Tuesday allows a weak lobe of
vorticity to float through the area. Sfc dew points creep up and
afternoon capes of 500-1000 J/KG are progged. This may allow some
widely scattered diurnal weak convection to develop but the best
coverage should be west and north of our area near the sfc front.

The sfc front leans in from the northwest on Tuesday night but
appears to wash out as it does so. Not much of a low level jet to
work with either, so still only chc/sctd pops. On Wednesday it looks
like the sfc front will be oriented in a west-east fashion south of
I-96. Best risk of showers/storms should be near I-94 where better
sfc convergence and instability will be present.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Confidence continues to increase that the area will see a warm and
unsettled weather pattern take shape for the long term. We will see
a secondary ridge axis push east of the cwfa by the time the long
term begins on Wed night. A low level jet and approaching warm front
will be more than sufficient to bring a good threat of showers and
storms to the area.

The chance of showers and storms will not disappear entirely from
Thu through early Friday, but the threat will lower some compared to
Wed night. Deep layer sw flow will be in place, allowing for short
wave troughs to remain possible and touch a few showers/storms off.
Some breaks in the clouds will allow for some better instability to
build during the day.

The threat for pcpn will increase once again on Fri. This occurs as
another better defined wave is expected to come out of the plains
states, and push another warm front into the area. Continued srly
flow will ensure that plenty of moisture will remain in place. This
will last into early Saturday before the front and low level jet
push north of the area. A few showers and storms will remain
possible into Sun as the sfc low and associated cold front will be
on our doorstep.

We will remain rather warm through the period as the upper jet
stream will remain to our North and West. H850 temps well into the
teens C will support highs around 80 with some peeks of sunshine at
times. It will be somewhat humid with dew points expected to be up
around 60F.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 728 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High confidence in VFR conditions continuing today and tonight
with clear skies and south winds under 10 knots. Some locally
higher onshore winds possible at MKG in the afternoon and early
evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

The risk of marine fog will increase starting Tuesday afternoon
with the arrival of sfc dew points over 50. Lake temps are still
quite chilly with readings of 45 to 50. Otherwise winds and waves
are expected to remain below small craft advisory criteria the
next few days.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

We will see yet another day of elevated fire danger across the area
with the warming temperatures and continued dry air mass in place.
The most elevated danger will be up north where green-up is not as
far along. Fortunately winds are not expected to be much of a factor
today. Winds will be a little more of a factor on Tuesday, however
dew points should be also coming up with the steady srly winds
tapping Gulf of Mexico moisture.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1229 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

South to southwest flow will develop by Tuesday, allowing for a
moisture laden airmass to park itself through the heart of the
Midwest. This will ultimately lead to an active, wetter pattern
through much of the upcoming week. Though it is not expected to be
continually raining, multiple waves/disturbances will travel from
southwest to northeast through the Great Lakes Region and provide
periods of wet weather. Some long term forecast precipitation
estimates are 2+ inches, in addition to the fact that locally
heavier rain is fairly typical in this type of setup. Despite
recent dry weather, river levels are running slightly above normal
in some locations and could return to near/above bankfull levels,
pending the actual results through next Sunday.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Meade
SHORT TERM...Meade
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...Meade
FIRE WEATHER...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...Meade





000
FXUS63 KGRR 230730
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
330 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/FireWeather/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Warm weather with highs near 80 inland from Lake Michigan will
prevail this week into the upcoming holiday weekend. Increasingly
humid conditions will bring a daily risk of showers and
thunderstorms starting Tuesday. However the coverage and duration of
rain will be limited so the week will not be a wash out by any
means.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High amplitude upper level ridge will keep us dry and sunny today.
The combination of a dry air mass with dew points in the 30s to low
40s and full sun could result in superadiabtic lapse rates near the
ground, leading to highs a bit above guidance. Lower 80s for highs
are a good possibility however increasing south winds will lead to
rather cool conditions for the lakeshore north of Muskegon with
highs only in the lower 70s.

Break down of the upper ridge on Tuesday allows a weak lobe of
vorticity to float through the area. Sfc dew points creep up and
afternoon capes of 500-1000 J/KG are progged. This may allow some
widely scattered diurnal weak convection to develop but the best
coverage should be west of north of our area near the sfc front.

The sfc front leans in from the northwest on Tuesday night but
appears to wash out as it does so. Not much of a low level jet to
work with either, so still only chc/sctd pops. On Wednesday it looks
like the sfc front will be oriented in a west-east fashion south of
I-96. Best risk of showers/storms should be near I-94 where better
sfc convergence and instability will be present.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Confidence continues to increase that the area will see a warm and
unsettled weather pattern take shape for the long term. We will see
a secondary ridge axis push east of the cwfa by the time the long
term begins on Wed night. A low level jet and approaching warm front
will be more than sufficient to bring a good threat of showers and
storms to the area.

The chance of showers and storms will not disappear entirely from
Thu through early Friday, but the threat will lower some compared to
Wed night. Deep layer sw flow will be in place, allowing for short
wave troughs to remain possible and touch a few showers/storms off.
Some breaks in the clouds will allow for some better instability to
build during the day.

The threat for pcpn will increase once again on Fri. This occurs as
another better defined wave is expected to come out of the plains
states, and push another warm front into the area. Continued srly
flow will ensure that plenty of moisture will remain in place. This
will last into early Saturday before the front and low level jet
push north of the area. A few showers and storms will remain
possible into Sun as the sfc low and associated cold front will be
on our doorstep.

We will remain rather warm through the period as the upper jet
stream will remain to our North and West. H850 temps well into the
teens C will support highs around 80 with some peeks of sunshine at
times. It will be somewhat humid with dew points expected to be up
around 60F.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Another forecast period in which minimal impacts to aviation
interests are expected. Skies are mainly clear, and winds have
gone light. Chance for fog is very low with the very dry air mass
is place. Only a few cumulus clouds are expected this afternoon.
Winds will generally be from the S under 10 knots. KMKG will have
another lake breeze with wind speeds a little higher there. Winds
will die down around sunset tonight with mainly clear skies.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

The risk of fog will increase starting Tuesday afternoon with the
arrival of sfc dew points over 50. Lake temps are still quite chilly
with readings of 45 to 50. Otherwise winds and waves are expected to
remain below small craft advisory criteria the next few days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

We will see yet another day of elevated fire danger across the area
with the warming temperatures and continued dry air mass in place.
The most elevated danger will be up north where green-up is not as
far along. Fortunately winds are not expected to be much of a factor
today. Winds will be a little more of a factor on Tuesday, however
dew points should be also coming up with the steady srly winds
tapping Gulf of Mexico moisture.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1229 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

South to southwest flow will develop by Tuesday, allowing for a
moisture laden airmass to park itself through the heart of the
Midwest. This will ultimately lead to an active, wetter pattern
through much of the upcoming week. Though it is not expected to be
continually raining, multiple waves/disturbances will travel from
southwest to northeast through the Great Lakes Region and provide
periods of wet weather. Some long term forecast precipitation
estimates are 2+ inches, in addition to the fact that locally
heavier rain is fairly typical in this type of setup. Despite
recent dry weather, river levels are running slightly above normal
in some locations and could return to near/above bankfull levels,
pending the actual results through next Sunday.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Meade
SHORT TERM...Meade
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
FIRE WEATHER...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...Meade





000
FXUS63 KGRR 230105
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
905 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Update

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather
pattern through Monday and result in mostly clear skies. The
moderating trend of temperatures will continue the next several
days. There is a small chance of a shower or thunderstorm
beginning late Tuesday with a better chance for showers and storms
for mid to late week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

I have lowered the low temperature forecast for tonight across
most of the area by around 5 degrees. I did that due to surface
dew points currently in the mid 30s east to mid 40s west. With
light winds and clear skies...temperatures should have little
problem falling to near lowest afternoon dew point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

The primary short term fcst challenge is to determine
probabilities for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

Fair wx will continue tonight through midday Tuesday as high
pressure continues to dominate the wx pattern. 12z model guidance
consensus time height rh progs suggest skies will remain mostly
clear through Monday evening and the nam cu scheme shows zero
potential for cu tomorrow aftn with a dry airmass in the low to
mid levels of the atmosphere.

A low pressure system moving ese from the upper midwest will bring
a chance of showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms as early
as Tuesday afternoon and evening. The area mainly west of US-131
should stay quite stable due to the increasing sw flow off
relatively cold lake waters. However an axis of weak instability
does develop from near US-131 eastward. So we expect scattered
showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms to develop Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening.

We will maintain mention of a small chc of showers and storms in
the fcst through Tuesday night as 12z gfs guidance shows potential
for weak elevated instability to linger through the night
particularly over our southern fcst area. Some of the other short
range guidance solutions look more stable so the overall
convective threat Tuesday night looks fairly low.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

The long term pattern continues to look warm and unsettled. The main
challenges deal with the timing and strength of any storms. Starting
with Wednesday...a low level jet is shown to be pushing in from the
southwest. Instability is forecasted which will likely lead to the
formation of showers and thunderstorms...especially Wednesday
evening.  Pwat values climb to up around 1.5 inches which is well
above normal. Thus some of the storms could have locally heavy
rainfall.

Increased uncertainty exist with the Thursday forecast.  The High
Res Euro supports a lull in the storms on Thursday as little in the
way of forcing is shown. The GFS winds up another low level jet with
a mid level shortwave.  The associated stronger deep layer shear
would warrant some organized convection.  Will maintain the risk for
storms with all models showing elevated pwat values and instability.
Will need to  monitor trends closely.

Another low level jet is forecasted to arrive later Friday into
Friday night.  This...combined with the instability and unseasonably
high pwat values will likely lead to another round of thunderstorms
for most locations.  Deep layer shear is also shown to increase on
Saturday as the low level jet persists...somewhat elevating the risk
for organized storms.  This increase in shear is associated with the
mid level low kicking out of the Southwest U.S. which tracks through
the western Great Lakes region on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 736 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Light winds and clear skies will prevail into monday evening due
to the proximity of the surface high being just east of this area
into monday afternoon. Surface winds will be driven more by the
land/lake breeze than synotpic scale forcing.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Wave heights will remain aob two feet through early this week due to
fairly light winds with high pressure still in control of the wx
pattern. Southwest winds will increase a bit by Tuesday.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1229 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

South to southwest flow will develop by Tuesday, allowing for a
moisture laden airmass to park itself through the heart of the
Midwest. This will ultimately lead to an active, wetter pattern
through much of the upcoming week. Though it is not expected to be
continually raining, multiple waves/disturbances will travel from
southwest to northeast through the Great Lakes Region and provide
periods of wet weather. Some long term forecast precipitation
estimates are 2+ inches, in addition to the fact that locally
heavier rain is fairly typical in this type of setup. Despite
recent dry weather, river levels are running slightly above normal
in some locations and could return to near/above bankfull levels,
pending the actual results through next Sunday.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...Laurens
SHORT TERM...Laurens
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...Laurens





000
FXUS63 KGRR 222336
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
736 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather
pattern through Monday and result in mostly clear skies. The
moderating trend of temperatures will continue the next several
days. There is a small chance of a shower or thunderstorm
beginning late Tuesday with a better chance for showers and storms
for mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

The primary short term fcst challenge is to determine
probabilities for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

Fair wx will continue tonight through midday Tuesday as high
pressure continues to dominate the wx pattern. 12z model guidance
consensus time height rh progs suggest skies will remain mostly
clear through Monday evening and the nam cu scheme shows zero
potential for cu tomorrow aftn with a dry airmass in the low to
mid levels of the atmosphere.

A low pressure system moving ese from the upper midwest will bring
a chance of showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms as early
as Tuesday afternoon and evening. The area mainly west of US-131
should stay quite stable due to the increasing sw flow off
relatively cold lake waters. However an axis of weak instability
does develop from near US-131 eastward. So we expect scattered
showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms to develop Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening.

We will maintain mention of a small chc of showers and storms in
the fcst through Tuesday night as 12z gfs guidance shows potential
for weak elevated instability to linger through the night
particularly over our southern fcst area. Some of the other short
range guidance solutions look more stable so the overall
convective threat Tuesday night looks fairly low.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

The long term pattern continues to look warm and unsettled. The main
challenges deal with the timing and strength of any storms. Starting
with Wednesday...a low level jet is shown to be pushing in from the
southwest. Instability is forecasted which will likely lead to the
formation of showers and thunderstorms...especially Wednesday
evening.  Pwat values climb to up around 1.5 inches which is well
above normal. Thus some of the storms could have locally heavy
rainfall.

Increased uncertainty exist with the Thursday forecast.  The High
Res Euro supports a lull in the storms on Thursday as little in the
way of forcing is shown. The GFS winds up another low level jet with
a mid level shortwave.  The associated stronger deep layer shear
would warrant some organized convection.  Will maintain the risk for
storms with all models showing elevated pwat values and instability.
Will need to  monitor trends closely.

Another low level jet is forecasted to arrive later Friday into
Friday night.  This...combined with the instability and unseasonably
high pwat values will likely lead to another round of thunderstorms
for most locations.  Deep layer shear is also shown to increase on
Saturday as the low level jet persists...somewhat elevating the risk
for organized storms.  This increase in shear is associated with the
mid level low kicking out of the Southwest U.S. which tracks through
the western Great Lakes region on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 736 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Light winds and clear skies will prevail into monday evening due
to the proximity of the surface high being just east of this area
into monday afternoon. Surface winds will be driven more by the
land/lake breeze than synotpic scale forcing.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Wave heights will remain aob two feet through early this week due to
fairly light winds with high pressure still in control of the wx
pattern. Southwest winds will increase a bit by Tuesday.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1229 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

South to southwest flow will develop by Tuesday, allowing for a
moisture laden airmass to park itself through the heart of the
Midwest. This will ultimately lead to an active, wetter pattern
through much of the upcoming week. Though it is not expected to be
continually raining, multiple waves/disturbances will travel from
southwest to northeast through the Great Lakes Region and provide
periods of wet weather. Some long term forecast precipitation
estimates are 2+ inches, in addition to the fact that locally
heavier rain is fairly typical in this type of setup. Despite
recent dry weather, river levels are running slightly above normal
in some locations and could return to near/above bankfull levels,
pending the actual results through next Sunday.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Laurens
SHORT TERM...Laurens
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...Laurens





000
FXUS63 KGRR 221917
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
315 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather
pattern through Monday and result in mostly clear skies. The
moderating trend of temperatures will continue the next several
days. There is a small chance of a shower or thunderstorm
beginning late Tuesday with a better chance for showers and storms
for mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

The primary short term fcst challenge is to determine
probabilities for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

Fair wx will continue tonight through midday Tuesday as high
pressure continues to dominate the wx pattern. 12z model guidance
consensus time height rh progs suggest skies will remain mostly
clear through Monday evening and the nam cu scheme shows zero
potential for cu tomorrow aftn with a dry airmass in the low to
mid levels of the atmosphere.

A low pressure system moving ese from the upper midwest will bring
a chance of showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms as early
as Tuesday afternoon and evening. The area mainly west of US-131
should stay quite stable due to the increasing sw flow off
relatively cold lake waters. However an axis of weak instability
does develop from near US-131 eastward. So we expect scattered
showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms to develop Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening.

We will maintain mention of a small chc of showers and storms in
the fcst through Tuesday night as 12z gfs guidance shows potential
for weak elevated instability to linger through the night
particularly over our southern fcst area. Some of the other short
range guidance solutions look more stable so the overall
convective threat Tuesday night looks fairly low.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

The long term pattern continues to look warm and unsettled. The main
challenges deal with the timing and strength of any storms. Starting
with Wednesday...a low level jet is shown to be pushing in from the
southwest. Instability is forecasted which will likely lead to the
formation of showers and thunderstorms...especially Wednesday
evening.  Pwat values climb to up around 1.5 inches which is well
above normal. Thus some of the storms could have locally heavy
rainfall.

Increased uncertainty exist with the Thursday forecast.  The High
Res Euro supports a lull in the storms on Thursday as little in the
way of forcing is shown. The GFS winds up another low level jet with
a mid level shortwave.  The associated stronger deep layer shear
would warrant some organized convection.  Will maintain the risk for
storms with all models showing elevated pwat values and instability.
Will need to  monitor trends closely.

Another low level jet is forecasted to arrive later Friday into
Friday night.  This...combined with the instability and unseasonably
high pwat values will likely lead to another round of thunderstorms
for most locations.  Deep layer shear is also shown to increase on
Saturday as the low level jet persists...somewhat elevating the risk
for organized storms.  This increase in shear is associated with the
mid level low kicking out of the Southwest U.S. which tracks through
the western Great Lakes region on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Overall vfr weather to prevail into Monday. The atmosphere remains
dry...which will limit the cloud cover. The wind could be variable
this afternoon...but a general north to northeast flow should
dominate. Near the lakeshore...for KMKG...an onshore wind is
forecasted to develop as the inland areas warm up during the day
today.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Wave heights will remain aob two feet through early this week due to
fairly light winds with high pressure still in control of the wx
pattern. Southwest winds will increase a bit by Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1229 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

South to southwest flow will develop by Tuesday, allowing for a
moisture laden airmass to park itself through the heart of the
Midwest. This will ultimately lead to an active, wetter pattern
through much of the upcoming week. Though it is not expected to be
continually raining, multiple waves/disturbances will travel from
southwest to northeast through the Great Lakes Region and provide
periods of wet weather. Some long term forecast precipitation
estimates are 2+ inches, in addition to the fact that locally
heavier rain is fairly typical in this type of setup. Despite
recent dry weather, river levels are running slightly above normal
in some locations and could return to near/above bankfull levels,
pending the actual results through next Sunday.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Laurens
SHORT TERM...Laurens
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...Laurens





000
FXUS63 KGRR 221140
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
740 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern
through Monday and result in mostly clear skies and a continued
moderating trend of temperatures. High temperatures close to 80
are expected for much of the area through Friday, which is 5 to
10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms return late Tuesday and persist through
Saturday with the best chances Wednesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

No impact weather is anticipated. I introduced a slight chance
for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, which is a
slightly earlier onset than the previous forecast. Otherwise, no
noteworthy changes were made. Would not be surprised to see us
reaching the low 80s both Monday and Tuesday afternoons, but have
kept the forecast closer to 80 for now.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

The long term portion of the forecast continues to look rather
unsettled and warm for Lower Michigan. We will see the long wave
upper ridge axis shift east of the area by Tue night. This will
allow for a southwest flow aloft to become established over the area
all of the way from the desert southwest.

Short wave troughs will be riding this sw flow aloft up into the
area. Low level srly flow will provide for sufficient moisture
advection from the Gulf of Mexico. We will see intervals of showers
and storms beginning Tuesday night and lasting right on through
Saturday. This does not mean it will be raining all of the time. The
threat of rain will be there everyday, however the timing of
individual waves is impossible to fcst at this time.

The core of the jet stream will remain to our west through the
entire long term. This will ensure that temps will remain warm
through the period with the low level srly flow remaining locked in
place. If enough peaks of sun occur between waves of rain, 80
degrees will be attainable on multiple occasions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 740 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Very high confidence for VFR conditions through the period. We
will see clouds with bases at or above 9000 ft move south out of
the area today with clear conditions afterwards. Winds will be
light much of the day although the MKG terminal will have somewhat
stronger winds from the northwest associated with the lake breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

No concerns in the short term. However, winds from the south will
increase Monday into Monday night allowing waves to build. Higher
waves are expect mainly north of Muskegon where the fetch will be
more favorable.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1059 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

There are no river advisories to mention in todays discussion. The
extended period of dry weather has proven beneficial and all sites
are now below bankfull. Dry conditions will continue through at
least Monday. Chances for precipitation increase by Tuesday of
next week and may very well extend through mid and late week.
Model guidance has trended much further west with the upper level
disturbance in time, ultimately elongating the stream of moisture
from the Gulf Coast. Therefore, while moisture levels increase to
1.5-2 times their normal values, the duration and magnitude of
next week`s precipitation is still uncertain. River levels are now
running near to slightly above normal and recent green up may help
to mitigate additional flood potential.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...TJT





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