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000
FXUS63 KGRR 301114
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
714 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER IS IN STORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND FRESH WESTERLY BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S HAVE PUSHED INTO SW LWR MI SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SOME STELLAR SUMMER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIR
MASS/STEEP LAPSE RATES LEADS TO EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF
STRONGER 25-30 KTS WINDS AT 3000-5000 FT.

OCCASIONAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GRTLKS REGION AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGHS MAY SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM BOTH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. HOWEVER
THE BIG LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE MODERATE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW OFF LK MI SENDING STABLE AIR WELL INLAND AND PREVENTING ANY
DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TYPICALLY THIS KEEPS THE BULK OF SW
LWR MI DRY WITH A LOW POTENTIAL USUALLY LIMITED TO JUST THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND CLARE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A POTENTIALLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND AS THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING A RIDGE OUT
WEST AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS FOR THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL WITH A CONTINUED CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR AVIATION INTERESTS TODAY IS THE WINDS. EXPECT
WESTERLY SFC WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS BY NOON WITH
GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. CLR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THIS IS HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE VERY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/BEACH
HAZARD STATEMENT TODAY. LACK OF COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THINGS
FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. THE LATEST RUC WIND GUIDANCE HAS
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER LK MI OCCURRING THIS MORNING... OUT OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST... THEN DECREASING AFTER THAT WHILE ACTUALLY
BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

THE IDEA IS THAT ONCE THE STRONGER HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING
COMMENCES OVER THE LAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WE END UP SEEING A
REVERSAL IN THE LAND/LAKE PRESSURE AND WIND REGIME... LEADING TO
A DECREASING TREND OVER THE WATER WHILE INCREASING OVER THE LAND.

LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOLID 3 FOOTERS OCCURRING AT 3 AM AND
WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF SPIKE TO AROUND 4 FEET BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 AM AND NOON. WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
POST HEADLINES IF BUOY WAVE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO TREND UP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS... WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S... A DRY AIR MASS... AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXTREMELY LOW THROUGH SATURDAY AND IT HAS BEEN PREDOMINATELY DRY
FOR THE PAST 10 DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE... BUT ONLY PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE RIVERS. RIVERS MAY SHOW RISES... BUT SHOULD NOT REACH BANK
FULL LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MEADE
FIRE WEATHER...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 301114
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
714 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER IS IN STORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND FRESH WESTERLY BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S HAVE PUSHED INTO SW LWR MI SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SOME STELLAR SUMMER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIR
MASS/STEEP LAPSE RATES LEADS TO EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF
STRONGER 25-30 KTS WINDS AT 3000-5000 FT.

OCCASIONAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GRTLKS REGION AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGHS MAY SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM BOTH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. HOWEVER
THE BIG LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE MODERATE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW OFF LK MI SENDING STABLE AIR WELL INLAND AND PREVENTING ANY
DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TYPICALLY THIS KEEPS THE BULK OF SW
LWR MI DRY WITH A LOW POTENTIAL USUALLY LIMITED TO JUST THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND CLARE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A POTENTIALLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND AS THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING A RIDGE OUT
WEST AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS FOR THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL WITH A CONTINUED CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR AVIATION INTERESTS TODAY IS THE WINDS. EXPECT
WESTERLY SFC WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS BY NOON WITH
GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. CLR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THIS IS HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE VERY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/BEACH
HAZARD STATEMENT TODAY. LACK OF COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THINGS
FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. THE LATEST RUC WIND GUIDANCE HAS
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER LK MI OCCURRING THIS MORNING... OUT OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST... THEN DECREASING AFTER THAT WHILE ACTUALLY
BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

THE IDEA IS THAT ONCE THE STRONGER HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING
COMMENCES OVER THE LAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WE END UP SEEING A
REVERSAL IN THE LAND/LAKE PRESSURE AND WIND REGIME... LEADING TO
A DECREASING TREND OVER THE WATER WHILE INCREASING OVER THE LAND.

LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOLID 3 FOOTERS OCCURRING AT 3 AM AND
WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF SPIKE TO AROUND 4 FEET BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 AM AND NOON. WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
POST HEADLINES IF BUOY WAVE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO TREND UP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS... WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S... A DRY AIR MASS... AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXTREMELY LOW THROUGH SATURDAY AND IT HAS BEEN PREDOMINATELY DRY
FOR THE PAST 10 DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE... BUT ONLY PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE RIVERS. RIVERS MAY SHOW RISES... BUT SHOULD NOT REACH BANK
FULL LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MEADE
FIRE WEATHER...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 301114
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
714 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER IS IN STORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND FRESH WESTERLY BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S HAVE PUSHED INTO SW LWR MI SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SOME STELLAR SUMMER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIR
MASS/STEEP LAPSE RATES LEADS TO EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF
STRONGER 25-30 KTS WINDS AT 3000-5000 FT.

OCCASIONAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GRTLKS REGION AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGHS MAY SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM BOTH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. HOWEVER
THE BIG LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE MODERATE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW OFF LK MI SENDING STABLE AIR WELL INLAND AND PREVENTING ANY
DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TYPICALLY THIS KEEPS THE BULK OF SW
LWR MI DRY WITH A LOW POTENTIAL USUALLY LIMITED TO JUST THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND CLARE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A POTENTIALLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND AS THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING A RIDGE OUT
WEST AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS FOR THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL WITH A CONTINUED CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR AVIATION INTERESTS TODAY IS THE WINDS. EXPECT
WESTERLY SFC WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS BY NOON WITH
GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. CLR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THIS IS HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE VERY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/BEACH
HAZARD STATEMENT TODAY. LACK OF COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THINGS
FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. THE LATEST RUC WIND GUIDANCE HAS
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER LK MI OCCURRING THIS MORNING... OUT OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST... THEN DECREASING AFTER THAT WHILE ACTUALLY
BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

THE IDEA IS THAT ONCE THE STRONGER HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING
COMMENCES OVER THE LAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WE END UP SEEING A
REVERSAL IN THE LAND/LAKE PRESSURE AND WIND REGIME... LEADING TO
A DECREASING TREND OVER THE WATER WHILE INCREASING OVER THE LAND.

LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOLID 3 FOOTERS OCCURRING AT 3 AM AND
WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF SPIKE TO AROUND 4 FEET BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 AM AND NOON. WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
POST HEADLINES IF BUOY WAVE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO TREND UP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS... WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S... A DRY AIR MASS... AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXTREMELY LOW THROUGH SATURDAY AND IT HAS BEEN PREDOMINATELY DRY
FOR THE PAST 10 DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE... BUT ONLY PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE RIVERS. RIVERS MAY SHOW RISES... BUT SHOULD NOT REACH BANK
FULL LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MEADE
FIRE WEATHER...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 301114
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
714 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER IS IN STORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND FRESH WESTERLY BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S HAVE PUSHED INTO SW LWR MI SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SOME STELLAR SUMMER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIR
MASS/STEEP LAPSE RATES LEADS TO EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF
STRONGER 25-30 KTS WINDS AT 3000-5000 FT.

OCCASIONAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GRTLKS REGION AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGHS MAY SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM BOTH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. HOWEVER
THE BIG LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE MODERATE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW OFF LK MI SENDING STABLE AIR WELL INLAND AND PREVENTING ANY
DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TYPICALLY THIS KEEPS THE BULK OF SW
LWR MI DRY WITH A LOW POTENTIAL USUALLY LIMITED TO JUST THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND CLARE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A POTENTIALLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND AS THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING A RIDGE OUT
WEST AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS FOR THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL WITH A CONTINUED CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR AVIATION INTERESTS TODAY IS THE WINDS. EXPECT
WESTERLY SFC WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS BY NOON WITH
GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. CLR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THIS IS HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE VERY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/BEACH
HAZARD STATEMENT TODAY. LACK OF COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THINGS
FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. THE LATEST RUC WIND GUIDANCE HAS
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER LK MI OCCURRING THIS MORNING... OUT OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST... THEN DECREASING AFTER THAT WHILE ACTUALLY
BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

THE IDEA IS THAT ONCE THE STRONGER HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING
COMMENCES OVER THE LAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WE END UP SEEING A
REVERSAL IN THE LAND/LAKE PRESSURE AND WIND REGIME... LEADING TO
A DECREASING TREND OVER THE WATER WHILE INCREASING OVER THE LAND.

LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOLID 3 FOOTERS OCCURRING AT 3 AM AND
WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF SPIKE TO AROUND 4 FEET BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 AM AND NOON. WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
POST HEADLINES IF BUOY WAVE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO TREND UP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS... WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S... A DRY AIR MASS... AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXTREMELY LOW THROUGH SATURDAY AND IT HAS BEEN PREDOMINATELY DRY
FOR THE PAST 10 DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE... BUT ONLY PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE RIVERS. RIVERS MAY SHOW RISES... BUT SHOULD NOT REACH BANK
FULL LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MEADE
FIRE WEATHER...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 300730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER IS IN STORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND FRESH WESTERLY BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S HAVE PUSHED INTO SW LWR MI SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SOME STELLAR SUMMER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIR
MASS LEADS TO EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER 25-30 KTS
WINDS AT 3000-5000 FT.

OCCASIONAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GRTLKS REGION AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGHS MAY SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM BOTH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. HOWEVER
THE BIG LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW OFF LK MI
SENDING STABLE AIR WELL INLAND AND PREVENTING ANY DECENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. TYPICALLY THIS KEEPS THE BULK OF SW LWR MI DRY WITH A
LOW POTENTIAL USUALLY LIMITED TO JUST THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWFA AROUND CLARE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A POTENTIALLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND AS THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING A RIDGE OUT WEST
AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
A CONTINUED CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SUSTAINED AT 15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/BEACH
HAZARD STATEMENT TODAY. THE LATEST RUC WIND GUIDANCE HAS THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER LK MI OCCURRING THIS MORNING... OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST... THEN DECREASING AFTER THAT WHILE BACKING TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

THE IDEA IS THAT ONCE THE STRONGER HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING
COMMENCES OVER THE LAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WE END UP SEEING A
REVERSAL IN THE LAND/LAKE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND REGIME LEADING
TO A DECREASING TREND OVER THE WATER.

LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOLID 3 FOOTERS OCCURRING AT 3 AM AND
WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF SPIKE TO AROUND 4 FEET BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 AM AND NOON. WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
POST HEADLINES IF BUOY WAVE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO TREND UP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE... BUT ONLY PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE RIVERS. RIVERS MAY SHOW RISES... BUT SHOULD NOT REACH BANK
FULL LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 300730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER IS IN STORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND FRESH WESTERLY BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S HAVE PUSHED INTO SW LWR MI SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SOME STELLAR SUMMER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIR
MASS LEADS TO EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER 25-30 KTS
WINDS AT 3000-5000 FT.

OCCASIONAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GRTLKS REGION AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGHS MAY SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM BOTH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. HOWEVER
THE BIG LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW OFF LK MI
SENDING STABLE AIR WELL INLAND AND PREVENTING ANY DECENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. TYPICALLY THIS KEEPS THE BULK OF SW LWR MI DRY WITH A
LOW POTENTIAL USUALLY LIMITED TO JUST THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWFA AROUND CLARE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A POTENTIALLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND AS THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING A RIDGE OUT WEST
AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
A CONTINUED CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SUSTAINED AT 15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/BEACH
HAZARD STATEMENT TODAY. THE LATEST RUC WIND GUIDANCE HAS THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER LK MI OCCURRING THIS MORNING... OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST... THEN DECREASING AFTER THAT WHILE BACKING TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

THE IDEA IS THAT ONCE THE STRONGER HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING
COMMENCES OVER THE LAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WE END UP SEEING A
REVERSAL IN THE LAND/LAKE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND REGIME LEADING
TO A DECREASING TREND OVER THE WATER.

LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOLID 3 FOOTERS OCCURRING AT 3 AM AND
WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF SPIKE TO AROUND 4 FEET BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 AM AND NOON. WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
POST HEADLINES IF BUOY WAVE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO TREND UP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE... BUT ONLY PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE RIVERS. RIVERS MAY SHOW RISES... BUT SHOULD NOT REACH BANK
FULL LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 300730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER IS IN STORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND FRESH WESTERLY BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S HAVE PUSHED INTO SW LWR MI SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SOME STELLAR SUMMER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIR
MASS LEADS TO EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER 25-30 KTS
WINDS AT 3000-5000 FT.

OCCASIONAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GRTLKS REGION AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGHS MAY SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM BOTH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. HOWEVER
THE BIG LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW OFF LK MI
SENDING STABLE AIR WELL INLAND AND PREVENTING ANY DECENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. TYPICALLY THIS KEEPS THE BULK OF SW LWR MI DRY WITH A
LOW POTENTIAL USUALLY LIMITED TO JUST THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWFA AROUND CLARE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A POTENTIALLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND AS THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING A RIDGE OUT WEST
AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
A CONTINUED CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SUSTAINED AT 15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/BEACH
HAZARD STATEMENT TODAY. THE LATEST RUC WIND GUIDANCE HAS THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER LK MI OCCURRING THIS MORNING... OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST... THEN DECREASING AFTER THAT WHILE BACKING TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

THE IDEA IS THAT ONCE THE STRONGER HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING
COMMENCES OVER THE LAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WE END UP SEEING A
REVERSAL IN THE LAND/LAKE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND REGIME LEADING
TO A DECREASING TREND OVER THE WATER.

LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOLID 3 FOOTERS OCCURRING AT 3 AM AND
WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF SPIKE TO AROUND 4 FEET BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 AM AND NOON. WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
POST HEADLINES IF BUOY WAVE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO TREND UP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE... BUT ONLY PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE RIVERS. RIVERS MAY SHOW RISES... BUT SHOULD NOT REACH BANK
FULL LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 300430
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1230 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED EAST OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. DRIER AIR IS NOW POISED TO MOVE OVER MICHIGAN AND PRODUCE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR STORM FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT. NOW THAT THE
COLD FRONT AS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. ALREADY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
HAVE MOVED OVER THE NW CWA. A COMFORTABLE COUPLE OF DAYS IS EXPECTED
WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH NEARBY. HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A STORM BUT IS NOT A BIG SYSTEM
AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LLJ FRIDAY
NIGHT IS WEAK AND PWATS ARE CLOSER TO AN INCH. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

OUR OVERALL MESSAGE FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK HAS
REALLY BEEN RATHER CONSISTANT. WE EXPECT THE WEATHER PATTERN TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND TEMPERATURE WILL GRADUALLY COOL OVER TIME.
STILL THROUGH... AND WE ALSO HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS...WHILE WE WILL
LIKELY BE SEEING SOME RAINFALL IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME THE AMOUNT OF RAIN IN ANY ONE PLACE WILL BE LIGHT...THAT IS
LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

WE ALREADY HAVE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THAT WE HAVE
BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR OVER A WEEK NOW. OVER TIME A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN THE EAST COAST TROUGH... EACH SHOTWAVE
BRING DOWN COLDER AIR THAN THE ONE BEFOR IT. FINALLY THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM THAT COMES THROUGH IN THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN
SINCE EARLY JULY.

AS FOR SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD MEAN
EVEN COLDER TEMPEATURES. THERE IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTH
POLE (THIS MORNING)...JUST NORTH OF ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY
DEVELOPES SOUTHEAST OVER TIME... BY TUESDAY IT WILL BE APPROCHING
HUDSON BAY. IF THIS CAN COME DOWN A TOUCH FARTHER SOUTH... WE WILL
SEE THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL MONTHS.

AS FOR THE DAILY WEATHER...THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO SYSTEMS THAT WE
ARE WATCHING. THE FIRST ONE COMES THROUGH SUNDAY THEN THE MORE
SIGNIFCANT ONE ON TUESDAY. EACH ARE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WITH
DECENT COLD FRONTS FOLLOWING THEM. EACH WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT (BUT LIMITED RAINFALL) AND EACH WILL
HAVE COOLER AIR THEN THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT BROUGHT. HIGHS WILL
FALL INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY. AFTER ABOUT 2 WEEKS OF HIGHS IN THE
80S EACH DAY(AWAY FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE)...THAT STREAK SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY.

BOTTOM LINE...THINK RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SUSTAINED AT 15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND WAVES WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET. IT/S
POSSIBLE THAT WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO
3 TO 5 FEET...BUT THAT WAS FAR FROM CERTAIN. SO A SCA WAS NOT
ISSUED...BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE... BUT ONLY PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE RIVERS. RIVERS MAY SHOW RISES... BUT SHOULD NOT REACH BANK
FULL LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 300430
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1230 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED EAST OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. DRIER AIR IS NOW POISED TO MOVE OVER MICHIGAN AND PRODUCE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR STORM FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT. NOW THAT THE
COLD FRONT AS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. ALREADY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
HAVE MOVED OVER THE NW CWA. A COMFORTABLE COUPLE OF DAYS IS EXPECTED
WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH NEARBY. HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A STORM BUT IS NOT A BIG SYSTEM
AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LLJ FRIDAY
NIGHT IS WEAK AND PWATS ARE CLOSER TO AN INCH. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

OUR OVERALL MESSAGE FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK HAS
REALLY BEEN RATHER CONSISTANT. WE EXPECT THE WEATHER PATTERN TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND TEMPERATURE WILL GRADUALLY COOL OVER TIME.
STILL THROUGH... AND WE ALSO HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS...WHILE WE WILL
LIKELY BE SEEING SOME RAINFALL IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME THE AMOUNT OF RAIN IN ANY ONE PLACE WILL BE LIGHT...THAT IS
LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

WE ALREADY HAVE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THAT WE HAVE
BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR OVER A WEEK NOW. OVER TIME A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN THE EAST COAST TROUGH... EACH SHOTWAVE
BRING DOWN COLDER AIR THAN THE ONE BEFOR IT. FINALLY THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM THAT COMES THROUGH IN THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN
SINCE EARLY JULY.

AS FOR SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD MEAN
EVEN COLDER TEMPEATURES. THERE IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTH
POLE (THIS MORNING)...JUST NORTH OF ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY
DEVELOPES SOUTHEAST OVER TIME... BY TUESDAY IT WILL BE APPROCHING
HUDSON BAY. IF THIS CAN COME DOWN A TOUCH FARTHER SOUTH... WE WILL
SEE THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL MONTHS.

AS FOR THE DAILY WEATHER...THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO SYSTEMS THAT WE
ARE WATCHING. THE FIRST ONE COMES THROUGH SUNDAY THEN THE MORE
SIGNIFCANT ONE ON TUESDAY. EACH ARE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WITH
DECENT COLD FRONTS FOLLOWING THEM. EACH WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT (BUT LIMITED RAINFALL) AND EACH WILL
HAVE COOLER AIR THEN THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT BROUGHT. HIGHS WILL
FALL INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY. AFTER ABOUT 2 WEEKS OF HIGHS IN THE
80S EACH DAY(AWAY FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE)...THAT STREAK SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY.

BOTTOM LINE...THINK RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SUSTAINED AT 15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND WAVES WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET. IT/S
POSSIBLE THAT WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO
3 TO 5 FEET...BUT THAT WAS FAR FROM CERTAIN. SO A SCA WAS NOT
ISSUED...BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE... BUT ONLY PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE RIVERS. RIVERS MAY SHOW RISES... BUT SHOULD NOT REACH BANK
FULL LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04





000
FXUS63 KGRR 292325
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
725 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED EAST OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. DRIER AIR IS NOW POISED TO MOVE OVER MICHIGAN AND PRODUCE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR STORM FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT. NOW THAT THE
COLD FRONT AS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. ALREADY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
HAVE MOVED OVER THE NW CWA. A COMFORTABLE COUPLE OF DAYS IS EXPECTED
WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH NEARBY. HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A STORM BUT IS NOT A BIG SYSTEM
AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LLJ FRIDAY
NIGHT IS WEAK AND PWATS ARE CLOSER TO AN INCH. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

OUR OVERALL MESSAGE FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK HAS
REALLY BEEN RATHER CONSISTANT. WE EXPECT THE WEATHER PATTERN TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND TEMPERATURE WILL GRADUALLY COOL OVER TIME.
STILL THROUGH... AND WE ALSO HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS...WHILE WE WILL
LIKELY BE SEEING SOME RAINFALL IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME THE AMOUNT OF RAIN IN ANY ONE PLACE WILL BE LIGHT...THAT IS
LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

WE ALREADY HAVE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THAT WE HAVE
BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR OVER A WEEK NOW. OVER TIME A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN THE EAST COAST TROUGH... EACH SHOTWAVE
BRING DOWN COLDER AIR THAN THE ONE BEFOR IT. FINALLY THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM THAT COMES THROUGH IN THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN
SINCE EARLY JULY.

AS FOR SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD MEAN
EVEN COLDER TEMPEATURES. THERE IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTH
POLE (THIS MORNING)...JUST NORTH OF ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY
DEVELOPES SOUTHEAST OVER TIME... BY TUESDAY IT WILL BE APPROCHING
HUDSON BAY. IF THIS CAN COME DOWN A TOUCH FARTHER SOUTH... WE WILL
SEE THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL MONTHS.

AS FOR THE DAILY WEATHER...THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO SYSTEMS THAT WE
ARE WATCHING. THE FIRST ONE COMES THROUGH SUNDAY THEN THE MORE
SIGNIFCANT ONE ON TUESDAY. EACH ARE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WITH
DECENT COLD FRONTS FOLLOWING THEM. EACH WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT (BUT LIMITED RAINFALL) AND EACH WILL
HAVE COOLER AIR THEN THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT BROUGHT. HIGHS WILL
FALL INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY. AFTER ABOUT 2 WEEKS OF HIGHS IN THE
80S EACH DAY(AWAY FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE)...THAT STREAK SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY.

BOTTOM LINE...THINK RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AFTER 13-14Z AND PEAK FROM AROUND NOON THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND WAVES WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET. IT/S
POSSIBLE THAT WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO
3 TO 5 FEET...BUT THAT WAS FAR FROM CERTAIN. SO A SCA WAS NOT
ISSUED...BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE... BUT ONLY PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE RIVERS. RIVERS MAY SHOW RISES... BUT SHOULD NOT REACH BANK
FULL LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04





000
FXUS63 KGRR 292325
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
725 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED EAST OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. DRIER AIR IS NOW POISED TO MOVE OVER MICHIGAN AND PRODUCE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR STORM FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT. NOW THAT THE
COLD FRONT AS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. ALREADY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
HAVE MOVED OVER THE NW CWA. A COMFORTABLE COUPLE OF DAYS IS EXPECTED
WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH NEARBY. HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A STORM BUT IS NOT A BIG SYSTEM
AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LLJ FRIDAY
NIGHT IS WEAK AND PWATS ARE CLOSER TO AN INCH. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

OUR OVERALL MESSAGE FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK HAS
REALLY BEEN RATHER CONSISTANT. WE EXPECT THE WEATHER PATTERN TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND TEMPERATURE WILL GRADUALLY COOL OVER TIME.
STILL THROUGH... AND WE ALSO HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS...WHILE WE WILL
LIKELY BE SEEING SOME RAINFALL IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME THE AMOUNT OF RAIN IN ANY ONE PLACE WILL BE LIGHT...THAT IS
LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

WE ALREADY HAVE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THAT WE HAVE
BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR OVER A WEEK NOW. OVER TIME A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN THE EAST COAST TROUGH... EACH SHOTWAVE
BRING DOWN COLDER AIR THAN THE ONE BEFOR IT. FINALLY THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM THAT COMES THROUGH IN THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN
SINCE EARLY JULY.

AS FOR SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD MEAN
EVEN COLDER TEMPEATURES. THERE IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTH
POLE (THIS MORNING)...JUST NORTH OF ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY
DEVELOPES SOUTHEAST OVER TIME... BY TUESDAY IT WILL BE APPROCHING
HUDSON BAY. IF THIS CAN COME DOWN A TOUCH FARTHER SOUTH... WE WILL
SEE THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL MONTHS.

AS FOR THE DAILY WEATHER...THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO SYSTEMS THAT WE
ARE WATCHING. THE FIRST ONE COMES THROUGH SUNDAY THEN THE MORE
SIGNIFCANT ONE ON TUESDAY. EACH ARE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WITH
DECENT COLD FRONTS FOLLOWING THEM. EACH WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT (BUT LIMITED RAINFALL) AND EACH WILL
HAVE COOLER AIR THEN THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT BROUGHT. HIGHS WILL
FALL INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY. AFTER ABOUT 2 WEEKS OF HIGHS IN THE
80S EACH DAY(AWAY FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE)...THAT STREAK SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY.

BOTTOM LINE...THINK RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AFTER 13-14Z AND PEAK FROM AROUND NOON THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND WAVES WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET. IT/S
POSSIBLE THAT WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO
3 TO 5 FEET...BUT THAT WAS FAR FROM CERTAIN. SO A SCA WAS NOT
ISSUED...BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE... BUT ONLY PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE RIVERS. RIVERS MAY SHOW RISES... BUT SHOULD NOT REACH BANK
FULL LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291928
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED EAST OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. DRIER AIR IS NOW POISED TO MOVE OVER MICHIGAN AND PRODUCE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR STORM FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT. NOW THAT THE
COLD FRONT AS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. ALREADY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
HAVE MOVED OVER THE NW CWA. A COMFORTABLE COUPLE OF DAYS IS EXPECTED
WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH NEARBY. HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A STORM BUT IS NOT A BIG SYSTEM
AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LLJ FRIDAY
NIGHT IS WEAK AND PWATS ARE CLOSER TO AN INCH. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

OUR OVERALL MESSAGE FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK HAS
REALLY BEEN RATHER CONSISTANT. WE EXPECT THE WEATHER PATTERN TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND TEMPERATURE WILL GRADUALLY COOL OVER TIME.
STILL THROUGH... AND WE ALSO HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS...WHILE WE WILL
LIKELY BE SEEING SOME RAINFALL IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME THE AMOUNT OF RAIN IN ANY ONE PLACE WILL BE LIGHT...THAT IS
LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

WE ALREADY HAVE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THAT WE HAVE
BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR OVER A WEEK NOW. OVER TIME A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN THE EAST COAST TROUGH... EACH SHOTWAVE
BRING DOWN COLDER AIR THAN THE ONE BEFOR IT. FINALLY THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM THAT COMES THROUGH IN THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN
SINCE EARLY JULY.

AS FOR SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD MEAN
EVEN COLDER TEMPEATURES. THERE IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTH
POLE (THIS MORNING)...JUST NORTH OF ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY
DEVELOPES SOUTHEAST OVER TIME... BY TUESDAY IT WILL BE APPROCHING
HUDSON BAY. IF THIS CAN COME DOWN A TOUCH FARTHER SOUTH... WE WILL
SEE THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL MONTHS.

AS FOR THE DAILY WEATHER...THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO SYSTEMS THAT WE
ARE WATCHING. THE FIRST ONE COMES THROUGH SUNDAY THEN THE MORE
SIGNIFCANT ONE ON TUESDAY. EACH ARE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WITH
DECENT COLD FRONTS FOLLOWING THEM. EACH WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT (BUT LIMITED RAINFALL) AND EACH WILL
HAVE COOLER AIR THEN THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT BROUGHT. HIGHS WILL
FALL INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY. AFTER ABOUT 2 WEEKS OF HIGHS IN THE
80S EACH DAY(AWAY FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE)...THAT STREAK SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY.

BOTTOM LINE...THINK RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS THAT TRAIL THE FRONT...THIS
WILL LAST ABOUT 2 HOURS AT ANY ONE STATION. IT HAS ALREADY CLEARED
THE MKG TAF SITE AND SHOULD BE CLEARING THE GRR...AZO AND BTL TAF
SITES BY 20Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
SO THE LAN AND JXN TAF SITES COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM PRIOR TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PASSING THROUGH THOSE
TAF SITES BY 21Z.

TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST UNDER
10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY THURSDAY
AS COOLER AIR AT MID LEVELS MOVES IN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OR
AT LEAST NEARLY  SO.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND WAVES WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET. IT/S
POSSIBLE THAT WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO
3 TO 5 FEET...BUT THAT WAS FAR FROM CERTAIN. SO A SCA WAS NOT
ISSUED...BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE... BUT ONLY PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE RIVERS. RIVERS MAY SHOW RISES... BUT SHOULD NOT REACH BANK
FULL LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04





000
FXUS63 KGRR 291928
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED EAST OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. DRIER AIR IS NOW POISED TO MOVE OVER MICHIGAN AND PRODUCE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR STORM FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT. NOW THAT THE
COLD FRONT AS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. ALREADY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
HAVE MOVED OVER THE NW CWA. A COMFORTABLE COUPLE OF DAYS IS EXPECTED
WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH NEARBY. HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A STORM BUT IS NOT A BIG SYSTEM
AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LLJ FRIDAY
NIGHT IS WEAK AND PWATS ARE CLOSER TO AN INCH. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

OUR OVERALL MESSAGE FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK HAS
REALLY BEEN RATHER CONSISTANT. WE EXPECT THE WEATHER PATTERN TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND TEMPERATURE WILL GRADUALLY COOL OVER TIME.
STILL THROUGH... AND WE ALSO HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS...WHILE WE WILL
LIKELY BE SEEING SOME RAINFALL IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME THE AMOUNT OF RAIN IN ANY ONE PLACE WILL BE LIGHT...THAT IS
LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

WE ALREADY HAVE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THAT WE HAVE
BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR OVER A WEEK NOW. OVER TIME A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN THE EAST COAST TROUGH... EACH SHOTWAVE
BRING DOWN COLDER AIR THAN THE ONE BEFOR IT. FINALLY THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM THAT COMES THROUGH IN THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN
SINCE EARLY JULY.

AS FOR SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD MEAN
EVEN COLDER TEMPEATURES. THERE IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTH
POLE (THIS MORNING)...JUST NORTH OF ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY
DEVELOPES SOUTHEAST OVER TIME... BY TUESDAY IT WILL BE APPROCHING
HUDSON BAY. IF THIS CAN COME DOWN A TOUCH FARTHER SOUTH... WE WILL
SEE THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL MONTHS.

AS FOR THE DAILY WEATHER...THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO SYSTEMS THAT WE
ARE WATCHING. THE FIRST ONE COMES THROUGH SUNDAY THEN THE MORE
SIGNIFCANT ONE ON TUESDAY. EACH ARE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WITH
DECENT COLD FRONTS FOLLOWING THEM. EACH WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT (BUT LIMITED RAINFALL) AND EACH WILL
HAVE COOLER AIR THEN THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT BROUGHT. HIGHS WILL
FALL INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY. AFTER ABOUT 2 WEEKS OF HIGHS IN THE
80S EACH DAY(AWAY FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE)...THAT STREAK SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY.

BOTTOM LINE...THINK RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS THAT TRAIL THE FRONT...THIS
WILL LAST ABOUT 2 HOURS AT ANY ONE STATION. IT HAS ALREADY CLEARED
THE MKG TAF SITE AND SHOULD BE CLEARING THE GRR...AZO AND BTL TAF
SITES BY 20Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
SO THE LAN AND JXN TAF SITES COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM PRIOR TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PASSING THROUGH THOSE
TAF SITES BY 21Z.

TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST UNDER
10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY THURSDAY
AS COOLER AIR AT MID LEVELS MOVES IN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OR
AT LEAST NEARLY  SO.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND WAVES WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET. IT/S
POSSIBLE THAT WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO
3 TO 5 FEET...BUT THAT WAS FAR FROM CERTAIN. SO A SCA WAS NOT
ISSUED...BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE... BUT ONLY PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE RIVERS. RIVERS MAY SHOW RISES... BUT SHOULD NOT REACH BANK
FULL LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291723
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
123 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN MORE COMFORTABLE LESS HUMID AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

DECREASED POPS A BIT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ATTM AND MAY KICK OFF A STORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND TWO INCHES MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUSPECT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THIS MORNING ACROSS SW LWR MI AS
MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION IMPACTS IOWA AND ILLINOIS.

OUR BEST PROSPECT FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 WHERE SB CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG ARE
PROGGED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SFC TO 3 KM VALUES AROUND 8.5C NEAR
JXN. BASED ON THE HIGH PWAT VALUES OF UP TO 2.25 INCHES WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED WET MICROBURST DAMAGING WIND EVENT.

CONVECTION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST 18Z-22Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT THEN DECREASING CLOUDS AND FALLING SFC DEW PTS EXPECTED.
BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ONCE DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES.
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL POPS MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED IN LATER FCSTS AS NEXT WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH DROPS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVER THE THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
REGARD TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
RAIN THROUGH SAT...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND SAT TIME
FRAME FOR NOW. WE WILL SEE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRI SLIP SE OF THE AREA FRI EVENING. WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS FRONT...HOWEVER THE
CHC IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRI FRONT WILL ONLY DIMINISH BY SAT AS THE
FRONT MOVES OUT. THERE IS NOT REALLY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND
THIS...SO WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE CHCS OF RAIN DOES GO UP ON SUN...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON TUE. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGHING CENTERED WELL NORTH IN CANADA. WE WILL SEE
THE JET CORE DROP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES
HELPING THIS CAUSE. BEING CLOSER TO THE JET...WE WILL HAVE MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SHORT WAVES TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA. WE
WILL ALSO SEE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE TO
BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR RAIN. EXACT TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS IS USUAL IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS.

TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO BE TOO BAD IN THIS PATTERN. THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE STATE...NORTH OF
THE JET CORE. WE WILL SEE AVERAGE TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR OUR AREA. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS THAT TRAIL THE FRONT...THIS
WILL LAST ABOUT 2 HOURS AT ANY ONE STATION. IT HAS ALREADY CLEARED
THE MKG TAF SITE AND SHOULD BE CLEARING THE GRR...AZO AND BTL TAF
SITES BY 20Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
SO THE LAN AND JXN TAF SITES COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM PRIOR TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PASSING THROUGH THOSE
TAF SITES BY 21Z.

TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST UNDER
10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY THURSDAY
AS COOLER AIR AT MID LEVELS MOVES IN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OR
AT LEAST NEARLY  SO.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THIS SITUATION COULD ALSO
SUPPORT BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT
WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL ATTRACTIVE BEACH CONDITIONS
SUPPORTIVE OF A HIGH BEACH POPULATION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE... BUT ONLY PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE RIVERS. RIVERS MAY SHOW RISES... BUT SHOULD NOT REACH BANK
FULL LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 291723
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
123 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN MORE COMFORTABLE LESS HUMID AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

DECREASED POPS A BIT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ATTM AND MAY KICK OFF A STORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND TWO INCHES MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUSPECT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THIS MORNING ACROSS SW LWR MI AS
MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION IMPACTS IOWA AND ILLINOIS.

OUR BEST PROSPECT FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 WHERE SB CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG ARE
PROGGED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SFC TO 3 KM VALUES AROUND 8.5C NEAR
JXN. BASED ON THE HIGH PWAT VALUES OF UP TO 2.25 INCHES WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED WET MICROBURST DAMAGING WIND EVENT.

CONVECTION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST 18Z-22Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT THEN DECREASING CLOUDS AND FALLING SFC DEW PTS EXPECTED.
BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ONCE DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES.
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL POPS MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED IN LATER FCSTS AS NEXT WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH DROPS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVER THE THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
REGARD TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
RAIN THROUGH SAT...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND SAT TIME
FRAME FOR NOW. WE WILL SEE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRI SLIP SE OF THE AREA FRI EVENING. WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS FRONT...HOWEVER THE
CHC IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRI FRONT WILL ONLY DIMINISH BY SAT AS THE
FRONT MOVES OUT. THERE IS NOT REALLY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND
THIS...SO WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE CHCS OF RAIN DOES GO UP ON SUN...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON TUE. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGHING CENTERED WELL NORTH IN CANADA. WE WILL SEE
THE JET CORE DROP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES
HELPING THIS CAUSE. BEING CLOSER TO THE JET...WE WILL HAVE MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SHORT WAVES TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA. WE
WILL ALSO SEE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE TO
BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR RAIN. EXACT TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS IS USUAL IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS.

TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO BE TOO BAD IN THIS PATTERN. THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE STATE...NORTH OF
THE JET CORE. WE WILL SEE AVERAGE TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR OUR AREA. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS THAT TRAIL THE FRONT...THIS
WILL LAST ABOUT 2 HOURS AT ANY ONE STATION. IT HAS ALREADY CLEARED
THE MKG TAF SITE AND SHOULD BE CLEARING THE GRR...AZO AND BTL TAF
SITES BY 20Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
SO THE LAN AND JXN TAF SITES COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM PRIOR TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PASSING THROUGH THOSE
TAF SITES BY 21Z.

TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST UNDER
10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY THURSDAY
AS COOLER AIR AT MID LEVELS MOVES IN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OR
AT LEAST NEARLY  SO.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THIS SITUATION COULD ALSO
SUPPORT BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT
WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL ATTRACTIVE BEACH CONDITIONS
SUPPORTIVE OF A HIGH BEACH POPULATION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE... BUT ONLY PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE RIVERS. RIVERS MAY SHOW RISES... BUT SHOULD NOT REACH BANK
FULL LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291723
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
123 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN MORE COMFORTABLE LESS HUMID AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

DECREASED POPS A BIT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ATTM AND MAY KICK OFF A STORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND TWO INCHES MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUSPECT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THIS MORNING ACROSS SW LWR MI AS
MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION IMPACTS IOWA AND ILLINOIS.

OUR BEST PROSPECT FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 WHERE SB CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG ARE
PROGGED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SFC TO 3 KM VALUES AROUND 8.5C NEAR
JXN. BASED ON THE HIGH PWAT VALUES OF UP TO 2.25 INCHES WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED WET MICROBURST DAMAGING WIND EVENT.

CONVECTION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST 18Z-22Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT THEN DECREASING CLOUDS AND FALLING SFC DEW PTS EXPECTED.
BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ONCE DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES.
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL POPS MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED IN LATER FCSTS AS NEXT WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH DROPS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVER THE THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
REGARD TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
RAIN THROUGH SAT...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND SAT TIME
FRAME FOR NOW. WE WILL SEE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRI SLIP SE OF THE AREA FRI EVENING. WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS FRONT...HOWEVER THE
CHC IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRI FRONT WILL ONLY DIMINISH BY SAT AS THE
FRONT MOVES OUT. THERE IS NOT REALLY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND
THIS...SO WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE CHCS OF RAIN DOES GO UP ON SUN...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON TUE. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGHING CENTERED WELL NORTH IN CANADA. WE WILL SEE
THE JET CORE DROP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES
HELPING THIS CAUSE. BEING CLOSER TO THE JET...WE WILL HAVE MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SHORT WAVES TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA. WE
WILL ALSO SEE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE TO
BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR RAIN. EXACT TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS IS USUAL IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS.

TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO BE TOO BAD IN THIS PATTERN. THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE STATE...NORTH OF
THE JET CORE. WE WILL SEE AVERAGE TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR OUR AREA. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS THAT TRAIL THE FRONT...THIS
WILL LAST ABOUT 2 HOURS AT ANY ONE STATION. IT HAS ALREADY CLEARED
THE MKG TAF SITE AND SHOULD BE CLEARING THE GRR...AZO AND BTL TAF
SITES BY 20Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
SO THE LAN AND JXN TAF SITES COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM PRIOR TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PASSING THROUGH THOSE
TAF SITES BY 21Z.

TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST UNDER
10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY THURSDAY
AS COOLER AIR AT MID LEVELS MOVES IN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OR
AT LEAST NEARLY  SO.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THIS SITUATION COULD ALSO
SUPPORT BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT
WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL ATTRACTIVE BEACH CONDITIONS
SUPPORTIVE OF A HIGH BEACH POPULATION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE... BUT ONLY PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE RIVERS. RIVERS MAY SHOW RISES... BUT SHOULD NOT REACH BANK
FULL LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 291723
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
123 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN MORE COMFORTABLE LESS HUMID AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

DECREASED POPS A BIT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ATTM AND MAY KICK OFF A STORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND TWO INCHES MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUSPECT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THIS MORNING ACROSS SW LWR MI AS
MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION IMPACTS IOWA AND ILLINOIS.

OUR BEST PROSPECT FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 WHERE SB CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG ARE
PROGGED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SFC TO 3 KM VALUES AROUND 8.5C NEAR
JXN. BASED ON THE HIGH PWAT VALUES OF UP TO 2.25 INCHES WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED WET MICROBURST DAMAGING WIND EVENT.

CONVECTION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST 18Z-22Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT THEN DECREASING CLOUDS AND FALLING SFC DEW PTS EXPECTED.
BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ONCE DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES.
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL POPS MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED IN LATER FCSTS AS NEXT WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH DROPS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVER THE THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
REGARD TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
RAIN THROUGH SAT...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND SAT TIME
FRAME FOR NOW. WE WILL SEE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRI SLIP SE OF THE AREA FRI EVENING. WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS FRONT...HOWEVER THE
CHC IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRI FRONT WILL ONLY DIMINISH BY SAT AS THE
FRONT MOVES OUT. THERE IS NOT REALLY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND
THIS...SO WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE CHCS OF RAIN DOES GO UP ON SUN...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON TUE. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGHING CENTERED WELL NORTH IN CANADA. WE WILL SEE
THE JET CORE DROP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES
HELPING THIS CAUSE. BEING CLOSER TO THE JET...WE WILL HAVE MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SHORT WAVES TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA. WE
WILL ALSO SEE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE TO
BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR RAIN. EXACT TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS IS USUAL IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS.

TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO BE TOO BAD IN THIS PATTERN. THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE STATE...NORTH OF
THE JET CORE. WE WILL SEE AVERAGE TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR OUR AREA. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS THAT TRAIL THE FRONT...THIS
WILL LAST ABOUT 2 HOURS AT ANY ONE STATION. IT HAS ALREADY CLEARED
THE MKG TAF SITE AND SHOULD BE CLEARING THE GRR...AZO AND BTL TAF
SITES BY 20Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
SO THE LAN AND JXN TAF SITES COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM PRIOR TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PASSING THROUGH THOSE
TAF SITES BY 21Z.

TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST UNDER
10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY THURSDAY
AS COOLER AIR AT MID LEVELS MOVES IN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OR
AT LEAST NEARLY  SO.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THIS SITUATION COULD ALSO
SUPPORT BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT
WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL ATTRACTIVE BEACH CONDITIONS
SUPPORTIVE OF A HIGH BEACH POPULATION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE... BUT ONLY PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE RIVERS. RIVERS MAY SHOW RISES... BUT SHOULD NOT REACH BANK
FULL LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291551
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1151 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN MORE COMFORTABLE LESS HUMID AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

DECREASED POPS A BIT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ATTM AND MAY KICK OFF A STORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND TWO INCHES MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUSPECT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THIS MORNING ACROSS SW LWR MI AS
MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION IMPACTS IOWA AND ILLINOIS.

OUR BEST PROSPECT FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 WHERE SB CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG ARE
PROGGED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SFC TO 3 KM VALUES AROUND 8.5C NEAR
JXN. BASED ON THE HIGH PWAT VALUES OF UP TO 2.25 INCHES WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED WET MICROBURST DAMAGING WIND EVENT.

CONVECTION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST 18Z-22Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT THEN DECREASING CLOUDS AND FALLING SFC DEW PTS EXPECTED.
BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ONCE DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES.
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL POPS MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED IN LATER FCSTS AS NEXT WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH DROPS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVER THE THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
REGARD TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
RAIN THROUGH SAT...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND SAT TIME
FRAME FOR NOW. WE WILL SEE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRI SLIP SE OF THE AREA FRI EVENING. WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS FRONT...HOWEVER THE
CHC IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRI FRONT WILL ONLY DIMINISH BY SAT AS THE
FRONT MOVES OUT. THERE IS NOT REALLY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND
THIS...SO WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE CHCS OF RAIN DOES GO UP ON SUN...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON TUE. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGHING CENTERED WELL NORTH IN CANADA. WE WILL SEE
THE JET CORE DROP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES
HELPING THIS CAUSE. BEING CLOSER TO THE JET...WE WILL HAVE MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SHORT WAVES TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA. WE
WILL ALSO SEE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE TO
BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR RAIN. EXACT TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS IS USUAL IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS.

TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO BE TOO BAD IN THIS PATTERN. THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE STATE...NORTH OF
THE JET CORE. WE WILL SEE AVERAGE TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR OUR AREA. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART TODAY DESPITE A COLD FRONT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. HOWEVER SOME BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE/WHEN THE SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING. THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 17Z TO 22Z
EAST OF A GRR-AZO LINE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z WITH WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST TO 12-22KTS. CLR SKIES AND WEST WINDS
OF 5-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THIS SITUATION COULD ALSO
SUPPORT BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT
WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL ATTRACTIVE BEACH CONDITIONS
SUPPORTIVE OF A HIGH BEACH POPULATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE... BUT ONLY PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE RIVERS. RIVERS MAY SHOW RISES... BUT SHOULD NOT REACH BANK
FULL LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291445
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1045 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN MORE COMFORTABLE LESS HUMID AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

DECREASED POPS A BIT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ATTM AND MAY KICK OFF A STORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND TWO INCHES MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUSPECT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THIS MORNING ACROSS SW LWR MI AS
MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION IMPACTS IOWA AND ILLINOIS.

OUR BEST PROSPECT FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 WHERE SB CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG ARE
PROGGED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SFC TO 3 KM VALUES AROUND 8.5C NEAR
JXN. BASED ON THE HIGH PWAT VALUES OF UP TO 2.25 INCHES WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED WET MICROBURST DAMAGING WIND EVENT.

CONVECTION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST 18Z-22Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT THEN DECREASING CLOUDS AND FALLING SFC DEW PTS EXPECTED.
BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ONCE DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES.
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL POPS MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED IN LATER FCSTS AS NEXT WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH DROPS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVER THE THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
REGARD TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
RAIN THROUGH SAT...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND SAT TIME
FRAME FOR NOW. WE WILL SEE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRI SLIP SE OF THE AREA FRI EVENING. WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS FRONT...HOWEVER THE
CHC IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRI FRONT WILL ONLY DIMINISH BY SAT AS THE
FRONT MOVES OUT. THERE IS NOT REALLY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND
THIS...SO WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE CHCS OF RAIN DOES GO UP ON SUN...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON TUE. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGHING CENTERED WELL NORTH IN CANADA. WE WILL SEE
THE JET CORE DROP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES
HELPING THIS CAUSE. BEING CLOSER TO THE JET...WE WILL HAVE MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SHORT WAVES TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA. WE
WILL ALSO SEE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE TO
BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR RAIN. EXACT TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS IS USUAL IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS.

TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO BE TOO BAD IN THIS PATTERN. THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE STATE...NORTH OF
THE JET CORE. WE WILL SEE AVERAGE TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR OUR AREA. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART TODAY DESPITE A COLD FRONT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. HOWEVER SOME BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE/WHEN THE SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING. THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 17Z TO 22Z
EAST OF A GRR-AZO LINE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z WITH WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST TO 12-22KTS. CLR SKIES AND WEST WINDS
OF 5-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THIS SITUATION COULD ALSO
SUPPORT BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT
WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL ATTRACTIVE BEACH CONDITIONS
SUPPORTIVE OF A HIGH BEACH POPULATION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER A
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 291445
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1045 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN MORE COMFORTABLE LESS HUMID AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

DECREASED POPS A BIT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ATTM AND MAY KICK OFF A STORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND TWO INCHES MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUSPECT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THIS MORNING ACROSS SW LWR MI AS
MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION IMPACTS IOWA AND ILLINOIS.

OUR BEST PROSPECT FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 WHERE SB CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG ARE
PROGGED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SFC TO 3 KM VALUES AROUND 8.5C NEAR
JXN. BASED ON THE HIGH PWAT VALUES OF UP TO 2.25 INCHES WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED WET MICROBURST DAMAGING WIND EVENT.

CONVECTION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST 18Z-22Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT THEN DECREASING CLOUDS AND FALLING SFC DEW PTS EXPECTED.
BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ONCE DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES.
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL POPS MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED IN LATER FCSTS AS NEXT WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH DROPS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVER THE THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
REGARD TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
RAIN THROUGH SAT...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND SAT TIME
FRAME FOR NOW. WE WILL SEE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRI SLIP SE OF THE AREA FRI EVENING. WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS FRONT...HOWEVER THE
CHC IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRI FRONT WILL ONLY DIMINISH BY SAT AS THE
FRONT MOVES OUT. THERE IS NOT REALLY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND
THIS...SO WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE CHCS OF RAIN DOES GO UP ON SUN...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON TUE. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGHING CENTERED WELL NORTH IN CANADA. WE WILL SEE
THE JET CORE DROP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES
HELPING THIS CAUSE. BEING CLOSER TO THE JET...WE WILL HAVE MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SHORT WAVES TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA. WE
WILL ALSO SEE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE TO
BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR RAIN. EXACT TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS IS USUAL IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS.

TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO BE TOO BAD IN THIS PATTERN. THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE STATE...NORTH OF
THE JET CORE. WE WILL SEE AVERAGE TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR OUR AREA. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART TODAY DESPITE A COLD FRONT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. HOWEVER SOME BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE/WHEN THE SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING. THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 17Z TO 22Z
EAST OF A GRR-AZO LINE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z WITH WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST TO 12-22KTS. CLR SKIES AND WEST WINDS
OF 5-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THIS SITUATION COULD ALSO
SUPPORT BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT
WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL ATTRACTIVE BEACH CONDITIONS
SUPPORTIVE OF A HIGH BEACH POPULATION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER A
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291445
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1045 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN MORE COMFORTABLE LESS HUMID AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

DECREASED POPS A BIT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ATTM AND MAY KICK OFF A STORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND TWO INCHES MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUSPECT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THIS MORNING ACROSS SW LWR MI AS
MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION IMPACTS IOWA AND ILLINOIS.

OUR BEST PROSPECT FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 WHERE SB CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG ARE
PROGGED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SFC TO 3 KM VALUES AROUND 8.5C NEAR
JXN. BASED ON THE HIGH PWAT VALUES OF UP TO 2.25 INCHES WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED WET MICROBURST DAMAGING WIND EVENT.

CONVECTION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST 18Z-22Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT THEN DECREASING CLOUDS AND FALLING SFC DEW PTS EXPECTED.
BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ONCE DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES.
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL POPS MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED IN LATER FCSTS AS NEXT WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH DROPS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVER THE THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
REGARD TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
RAIN THROUGH SAT...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND SAT TIME
FRAME FOR NOW. WE WILL SEE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRI SLIP SE OF THE AREA FRI EVENING. WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS FRONT...HOWEVER THE
CHC IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRI FRONT WILL ONLY DIMINISH BY SAT AS THE
FRONT MOVES OUT. THERE IS NOT REALLY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND
THIS...SO WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE CHCS OF RAIN DOES GO UP ON SUN...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON TUE. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGHING CENTERED WELL NORTH IN CANADA. WE WILL SEE
THE JET CORE DROP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES
HELPING THIS CAUSE. BEING CLOSER TO THE JET...WE WILL HAVE MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SHORT WAVES TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA. WE
WILL ALSO SEE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE TO
BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR RAIN. EXACT TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS IS USUAL IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS.

TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO BE TOO BAD IN THIS PATTERN. THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE STATE...NORTH OF
THE JET CORE. WE WILL SEE AVERAGE TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR OUR AREA. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART TODAY DESPITE A COLD FRONT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. HOWEVER SOME BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE/WHEN THE SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING. THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 17Z TO 22Z
EAST OF A GRR-AZO LINE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z WITH WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST TO 12-22KTS. CLR SKIES AND WEST WINDS
OF 5-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THIS SITUATION COULD ALSO
SUPPORT BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT
WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL ATTRACTIVE BEACH CONDITIONS
SUPPORTIVE OF A HIGH BEACH POPULATION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER A
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291146
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
746 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN MORE COMFORTABLE LESS HUMID AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND TWO INCHES MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUSPECT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THIS MORNING ACROSS SW LWR MI AS
MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION IMPACTS IOWA AND ILLINOIS.

OUR BEST PROSPECT FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 WHERE SB CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG ARE
PROGGED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SFC TO 3 KM VALUES AROUND 8.5C NEAR
JXN. BASED ON THE HIGH PWAT VALUES OF UP TO 2.25 INCHES WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED WET MICROBURST DAMAGING WIND EVENT.

CONVECTION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST 18Z-22Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT THEN DECREASING CLOUDS AND FALLING SFC DEW PTS EXPECTED.
BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ONCE DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES.
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL POPS MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED IN LATER FCSTS AS NEXT WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH DROPS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVER THE THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
REGARD TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
RAIN THROUGH SAT...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND SAT TIME
FRAME FOR NOW. WE WILL SEE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRI SLIP SE OF THE AREA FRI EVENING. WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS FRONT...HOWEVER THE
CHC IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRI FRONT WILL ONLY DIMINISH BY SAT AS THE
FRONT MOVES OUT. THERE IS NOT REALLY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND
THIS...SO WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE CHCS OF RAIN DOES GO UP ON SUN...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON TUE. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGHING CENTERED WELL NORTH IN CANADA. WE WILL SEE
THE JET CORE DROP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES
HELPING THIS CAUSE. BEING CLOSER TO THE JET...WE WILL HAVE MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SHORT WAVES TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA. WE
WILL ALSO SEE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE TO
BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR RAIN. EXACT TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS IS USUAL IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS.

TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO BE TOO BAD IN THIS PATTERN. THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE STATE...NORTH OF
THE JET CORE. WE WILL SEE AVERAGE TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR OUR AREA. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND TWO INCHES MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUSPECT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THIS MORNING ACROSS SW LWR MI AS
MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION IMPACTS IOWA AND ILLINOIS.

OUR BEST PROSPECTS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 WHERE SB CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG ARE
PROGGED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RUC FCST SNDGS EXHIBIT STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SFC TO 3 KM AROUND 8.5C NEAR JXN.  BASED ON
THE HIGH PWAT VALUES OF UP TO 2.25 INCHES WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OF
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED
WET MICROBURST DAMAGING WIND EVENT.

CONVECTION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST 18Z-22Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT THEN DECREASING CLOUDS AND FALLING SFC DEW PTS EXPECTED.
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY ONCE DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES.
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL POPS MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED IN LATER FCSTS AS NEXT WEAK FRONT/TROUGH DROPS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVER THE THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
REGARD TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
RAIN THROUGH SAT...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND SAT TIME
FRAME FOR NOW. WE WILL SEE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRI SLIP SE OF THE AREA FRI EVENING. WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS FRONT...HOWEVER THE
CHC IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRI FRONT WILL ONLY DIMINISH BY SAT AS THE
FRONT MOVES OUT. THERE IS NOT REALLY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND
THIS...SO WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE CHCS OF RAIN DOES GO UP ON SUN...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON TUE. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGHING CENTERED WELL NORTH IN CANADA. WE WILL SEE
THE JET CORE DROP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES
HELPING THIS CAUSE. BEING CLOSER TO THE JET...WE WILL HAVE MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SHORT WAVES TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA. WE
WILL ALSO SEE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE TO
BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR RAIN. EXACT TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS IS USUAL IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS.

TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO BE TOO BAD IN THIS PATTERN. THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE STATE...NORTH OF
THE JET CORE. WE WILL SEE AVERAGE TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR OUR AREA. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART TODAY DESPITE A COLD FRONT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. HOWEVER SOME BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE/WHEN THE SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING. THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 17Z TO 22Z
EAST OF A GRR-AZO LINE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z WITH WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST TO 12-22KTS. CLR SKIES AND WEST WINDS
OF 5-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THIS SITUATION COULD ALSO
SUPPORT BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT
WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL ATTRACTIVE BEACH CONDITIONS
SUPPORTIVE OF A HIGH BEACH POPULATION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER A
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 291146
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
746 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN MORE COMFORTABLE LESS HUMID AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND TWO INCHES MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUSPECT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THIS MORNING ACROSS SW LWR MI AS
MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION IMPACTS IOWA AND ILLINOIS.

OUR BEST PROSPECT FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 WHERE SB CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG ARE
PROGGED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SFC TO 3 KM VALUES AROUND 8.5C NEAR
JXN. BASED ON THE HIGH PWAT VALUES OF UP TO 2.25 INCHES WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED WET MICROBURST DAMAGING WIND EVENT.

CONVECTION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST 18Z-22Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT THEN DECREASING CLOUDS AND FALLING SFC DEW PTS EXPECTED.
BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ONCE DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES.
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL POPS MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED IN LATER FCSTS AS NEXT WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH DROPS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVER THE THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
REGARD TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
RAIN THROUGH SAT...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND SAT TIME
FRAME FOR NOW. WE WILL SEE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRI SLIP SE OF THE AREA FRI EVENING. WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS FRONT...HOWEVER THE
CHC IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRI FRONT WILL ONLY DIMINISH BY SAT AS THE
FRONT MOVES OUT. THERE IS NOT REALLY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND
THIS...SO WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE CHCS OF RAIN DOES GO UP ON SUN...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON TUE. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGHING CENTERED WELL NORTH IN CANADA. WE WILL SEE
THE JET CORE DROP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES
HELPING THIS CAUSE. BEING CLOSER TO THE JET...WE WILL HAVE MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SHORT WAVES TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA. WE
WILL ALSO SEE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE TO
BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR RAIN. EXACT TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS IS USUAL IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS.

TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO BE TOO BAD IN THIS PATTERN. THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE STATE...NORTH OF
THE JET CORE. WE WILL SEE AVERAGE TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR OUR AREA. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND TWO INCHES MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUSPECT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THIS MORNING ACROSS SW LWR MI AS
MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION IMPACTS IOWA AND ILLINOIS.

OUR BEST PROSPECTS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 WHERE SB CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG ARE
PROGGED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RUC FCST SNDGS EXHIBIT STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SFC TO 3 KM AROUND 8.5C NEAR JXN.  BASED ON
THE HIGH PWAT VALUES OF UP TO 2.25 INCHES WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OF
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED
WET MICROBURST DAMAGING WIND EVENT.

CONVECTION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST 18Z-22Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT THEN DECREASING CLOUDS AND FALLING SFC DEW PTS EXPECTED.
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY ONCE DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES.
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL POPS MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED IN LATER FCSTS AS NEXT WEAK FRONT/TROUGH DROPS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVER THE THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
REGARD TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
RAIN THROUGH SAT...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND SAT TIME
FRAME FOR NOW. WE WILL SEE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRI SLIP SE OF THE AREA FRI EVENING. WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS FRONT...HOWEVER THE
CHC IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRI FRONT WILL ONLY DIMINISH BY SAT AS THE
FRONT MOVES OUT. THERE IS NOT REALLY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND
THIS...SO WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE CHCS OF RAIN DOES GO UP ON SUN...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON TUE. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGHING CENTERED WELL NORTH IN CANADA. WE WILL SEE
THE JET CORE DROP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES
HELPING THIS CAUSE. BEING CLOSER TO THE JET...WE WILL HAVE MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SHORT WAVES TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA. WE
WILL ALSO SEE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE TO
BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR RAIN. EXACT TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS IS USUAL IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS.

TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO BE TOO BAD IN THIS PATTERN. THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE STATE...NORTH OF
THE JET CORE. WE WILL SEE AVERAGE TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR OUR AREA. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART TODAY DESPITE A COLD FRONT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. HOWEVER SOME BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE/WHEN THE SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING. THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 17Z TO 22Z
EAST OF A GRR-AZO LINE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z WITH WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST TO 12-22KTS. CLR SKIES AND WEST WINDS
OF 5-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THIS SITUATION COULD ALSO
SUPPORT BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT
WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL ATTRACTIVE BEACH CONDITIONS
SUPPORTIVE OF A HIGH BEACH POPULATION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER A
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 291146
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
746 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN MORE COMFORTABLE LESS HUMID AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND TWO INCHES MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUSPECT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THIS MORNING ACROSS SW LWR MI AS
MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION IMPACTS IOWA AND ILLINOIS.

OUR BEST PROSPECT FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 WHERE SB CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG ARE
PROGGED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SFC TO 3 KM VALUES AROUND 8.5C NEAR
JXN. BASED ON THE HIGH PWAT VALUES OF UP TO 2.25 INCHES WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED WET MICROBURST DAMAGING WIND EVENT.

CONVECTION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST 18Z-22Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT THEN DECREASING CLOUDS AND FALLING SFC DEW PTS EXPECTED.
BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ONCE DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES.
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL POPS MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED IN LATER FCSTS AS NEXT WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH DROPS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVER THE THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
REGARD TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
RAIN THROUGH SAT...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND SAT TIME
FRAME FOR NOW. WE WILL SEE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRI SLIP SE OF THE AREA FRI EVENING. WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS FRONT...HOWEVER THE
CHC IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRI FRONT WILL ONLY DIMINISH BY SAT AS THE
FRONT MOVES OUT. THERE IS NOT REALLY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND
THIS...SO WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE CHCS OF RAIN DOES GO UP ON SUN...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON TUE. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGHING CENTERED WELL NORTH IN CANADA. WE WILL SEE
THE JET CORE DROP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES
HELPING THIS CAUSE. BEING CLOSER TO THE JET...WE WILL HAVE MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SHORT WAVES TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA. WE
WILL ALSO SEE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE TO
BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR RAIN. EXACT TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS IS USUAL IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS.

TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO BE TOO BAD IN THIS PATTERN. THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE STATE...NORTH OF
THE JET CORE. WE WILL SEE AVERAGE TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR OUR AREA. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND TWO INCHES MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUSPECT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THIS MORNING ACROSS SW LWR MI AS
MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION IMPACTS IOWA AND ILLINOIS.

OUR BEST PROSPECTS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 WHERE SB CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG ARE
PROGGED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RUC FCST SNDGS EXHIBIT STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SFC TO 3 KM AROUND 8.5C NEAR JXN.  BASED ON
THE HIGH PWAT VALUES OF UP TO 2.25 INCHES WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OF
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED
WET MICROBURST DAMAGING WIND EVENT.

CONVECTION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST 18Z-22Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT THEN DECREASING CLOUDS AND FALLING SFC DEW PTS EXPECTED.
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY ONCE DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES.
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL POPS MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED IN LATER FCSTS AS NEXT WEAK FRONT/TROUGH DROPS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVER THE THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
REGARD TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
RAIN THROUGH SAT...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND SAT TIME
FRAME FOR NOW. WE WILL SEE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRI SLIP SE OF THE AREA FRI EVENING. WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS FRONT...HOWEVER THE
CHC IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRI FRONT WILL ONLY DIMINISH BY SAT AS THE
FRONT MOVES OUT. THERE IS NOT REALLY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND
THIS...SO WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE CHCS OF RAIN DOES GO UP ON SUN...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON TUE. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGHING CENTERED WELL NORTH IN CANADA. WE WILL SEE
THE JET CORE DROP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES
HELPING THIS CAUSE. BEING CLOSER TO THE JET...WE WILL HAVE MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SHORT WAVES TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA. WE
WILL ALSO SEE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE TO
BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR RAIN. EXACT TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS IS USUAL IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS.

TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO BE TOO BAD IN THIS PATTERN. THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE STATE...NORTH OF
THE JET CORE. WE WILL SEE AVERAGE TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR OUR AREA. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART TODAY DESPITE A COLD FRONT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. HOWEVER SOME BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE/WHEN THE SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING. THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 17Z TO 22Z
EAST OF A GRR-AZO LINE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z WITH WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST TO 12-22KTS. CLR SKIES AND WEST WINDS
OF 5-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THIS SITUATION COULD ALSO
SUPPORT BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT
WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL ATTRACTIVE BEACH CONDITIONS
SUPPORTIVE OF A HIGH BEACH POPULATION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER A
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 290730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN MORE COMFORTABLE LESS HUMID AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

 &&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND TWO INCHES MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUSPECT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THIS MORNING ACROSS SW LWR MI AS
MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION IMPACTS IOWA AND ILLINOIS.

OUR BEST PROSPECTS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 WHERE SB CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG ARE
PROGGED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RUC FCST SNDGS EXHIBIT STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SFC TO 3 KM AROUND 8.5C NEAR JXN.  BASED ON
THE HIGH PWAT VALUES OF UP TO 2.25 INCHES WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OF
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED
WET MICROBURST DAMAGING WIND EVENT.

CONVECTION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST 18Z-22Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT THEN DECREASING CLOUDS AND FALLING SFC DEW PTS EXPECTED.
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY ONCE DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES.
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL POPS MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED IN LATER FCSTS AS NEXT WEAK FRONT/TROUGH DROPS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVER THE THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
REGARD TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
RAIN THROUGH SAT...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND SAT TIME
FRAME FOR NOW. WE WILL SEE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRI SLIP SE OF THE AREA FRI EVENING. WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS FRONT...HOWEVER THE
CHC IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRI FRONT WILL ONLY DIMINISH BY SAT AS THE
FRONT MOVES OUT. THERE IS NOT REALLY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND
THIS...SO WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE CHCS OF RAIN DOES GO UP ON SUN...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON TUE. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGHING CENTERED WELL NORTH IN CANADA. WE WILL SEE
THE JET CORE DROP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES
HELPING THIS CAUSE. BEING CLOSER TO THE JET...WE WILL HAVE MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SHORT WAVES TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA. WE
WILL ALSO SEE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE TO
BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR RAIN. EXACT TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS IS USUAL IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS.

TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO BE TOO BAD IN THIS PATTERN. THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE STATE...NORTH OF
THE JET CORE. WE WILL SEE AVERAGE TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR OUR AREA. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS WITH THE 06Z FCST IS THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS WITH A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY.

WE HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A COUPLE POP UP SHOWERS NEAR KMKG FOR THE
FIRST HOUR OF THE VALID FCST PERIOD. THESE WILL PRODUCE SOME LOCAL
MVFR IN RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KMKG...BUT WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY
AND WILL LIKELY NOT HIT THE OTHER SITES.

WE EXPECTED A SCT LINE OF SHOWERS TO FORM WEST OF THE AREA TOWARD
12Z AND THEN SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. NOT SURE ALL OF THE
SITES WILL BE DIRECTLY HIT...SO WE HAVE USED A VCSH TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL. IF A SITE GETS HIT BY A SHOWER...SOME MVFR OR EVEN
BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD BE STORMS
TOWARD KLAN AND KJXN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EVERYTHING MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA BY AROUND 22Z.

SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT/SHOWERS.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THIS SITUATION COULD ALSO
SUPPORT BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT
WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL ATTRACTIVE BEACH CONDITIONS
SUPPORTIVE OF A HIGH BEACH POPULATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER A
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 290550
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
150 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS UNLIKELY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM DOESN`T IMPRESS ME. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN WISCONSIN HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY DUE TO ITS MOVING INTO THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM.

THE CORE OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WELL NORTH IN WESTERN
ONTARIO AND THAT WILL RESULT IN NOT MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. DESPITE SBCAPE AROUND 1200
J/KG...LI`S ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND THE CWA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET...ALSO NOT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER STORMS.
THERE ISN`T MUCH OF A LLJ EITHER. THE ONE THING THAT THE SYSTEM DOES
HAVE GOING FOR IT IS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.35
INCHES. SO WE MAY HAVE A LOW TOPPED SHOWER SCENARIO WITH BURSTS OF
HEAVIER RAIN. PCPN SHOULD WIND DOWN BY AFTERNOON AFTER WHICH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

I AM GOING TO CONTINUE TO SAY WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING...THE TREND IS
TOWARD COOLER AND WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS (NOT SO MUCH THUNDERSTORMS
EITHER).

IT LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR A UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP AND
STALL OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THIS IS A RATHER UNUSUAL WEATHER
PATTERN FOR LATE JULY OR EARLY AUGUST. THE NAERFS SHOWS THE RETURN
PERIOD OF SUCH AN EVENT (DEEP UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY) TO BE ONE
DAY IN 10 YEARS. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND CAN
BE RELIED ON... WHAT IS QUESTIONABLE IS THE DETAILED SURFACE WEATHER
WE WILL SEE FROM THIS UNUSUAL PATTERN. TYPICALLY THE MODELS DO NOT DO
WELL IN FORECASTING SUCH UNUSUAL PATTERNS. ONE CAN CLEARLY SEE THIS
IN HOW EACH MODEL RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION THAN THE
RUN BEFORE. FROM MODEL TO MODEL THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES AND THE STRENGTH OF THOSE SHORTWAVES
TOO.

I WOULD TOTALLY NOT RELY ON OUR FORECAST POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND. I
REALLY THINK THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THOSE SHORTWAVES AND THE STRENGTH THEREOF. WE HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... BUT THERE IS A SYSTEM COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND IT MAY WELL HAVE SHOWERS WITH IT. IN FACT I
WOULD EXPECT OUR POPS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FRIDAY OVER
TIME. SIMILARLY FOR SATURDAY TOO...BUT THAT COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
SUNDAY... JUST DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES.

ALSO LIKE I HAVE BEEN SAYING I THINK BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE
WILL BE SEEING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. WITH AN UPPER
LOW THAT DEEP SO CLOSE TO US IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE SOME OF THAT COLD
AIR WOULD NOT FINALLY MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. ACTUALLY THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING THIS BUT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF DID
NOT SHOW THIS...WHILE THE 12Z RUN FROM YESTERDAY DID.

BOTTOM LINE THINK...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS WITH THE 06Z FCST IS THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS WITH A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY.

WE HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A COUPLE POP UP SHOWERS NEAR KMKG FOR THE
FIRST HOUR OF THE VALID FCST PERIOD. THESE WILL PRODUCE SOME LOCAL
MVFR IN RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KMKG...BUT WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY
AND WILL LIKELY NOT HIT THE OTHER SITES.

WE EXPECTED A SCT LINE OF SHOWERS TO FORM WEST OF THE AREA TOWARD
12Z AND THEN SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. NOT SURE ALL OF THE
SITES WILL BE DIRECTLY HIT...SO WE HAVE USED A VCSH TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL. IF A SITE GETS HIT BY A SHOWER...SOME MVFR OR EVEN
BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD BE STORMS
TOWARD KLAN AND KJXN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EVERYTHING MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA BY AROUND 22Z.

SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT/SHOWERS.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WEST WINDS WILL BOOST
WAVE HEIGHTS TO AROUND 2 FEET. THUS NO HAZARDS IN THE SHORT TERM.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER A
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 290550
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
150 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS UNLIKELY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM DOESN`T IMPRESS ME. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN WISCONSIN HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY DUE TO ITS MOVING INTO THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM.

THE CORE OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WELL NORTH IN WESTERN
ONTARIO AND THAT WILL RESULT IN NOT MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. DESPITE SBCAPE AROUND 1200
J/KG...LI`S ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND THE CWA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET...ALSO NOT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER STORMS.
THERE ISN`T MUCH OF A LLJ EITHER. THE ONE THING THAT THE SYSTEM DOES
HAVE GOING FOR IT IS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.35
INCHES. SO WE MAY HAVE A LOW TOPPED SHOWER SCENARIO WITH BURSTS OF
HEAVIER RAIN. PCPN SHOULD WIND DOWN BY AFTERNOON AFTER WHICH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

I AM GOING TO CONTINUE TO SAY WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING...THE TREND IS
TOWARD COOLER AND WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS (NOT SO MUCH THUNDERSTORMS
EITHER).

IT LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR A UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP AND
STALL OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THIS IS A RATHER UNUSUAL WEATHER
PATTERN FOR LATE JULY OR EARLY AUGUST. THE NAERFS SHOWS THE RETURN
PERIOD OF SUCH AN EVENT (DEEP UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY) TO BE ONE
DAY IN 10 YEARS. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND CAN
BE RELIED ON... WHAT IS QUESTIONABLE IS THE DETAILED SURFACE WEATHER
WE WILL SEE FROM THIS UNUSUAL PATTERN. TYPICALLY THE MODELS DO NOT DO
WELL IN FORECASTING SUCH UNUSUAL PATTERNS. ONE CAN CLEARLY SEE THIS
IN HOW EACH MODEL RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION THAN THE
RUN BEFORE. FROM MODEL TO MODEL THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES AND THE STRENGTH OF THOSE SHORTWAVES
TOO.

I WOULD TOTALLY NOT RELY ON OUR FORECAST POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND. I
REALLY THINK THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THOSE SHORTWAVES AND THE STRENGTH THEREOF. WE HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... BUT THERE IS A SYSTEM COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND IT MAY WELL HAVE SHOWERS WITH IT. IN FACT I
WOULD EXPECT OUR POPS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FRIDAY OVER
TIME. SIMILARLY FOR SATURDAY TOO...BUT THAT COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
SUNDAY... JUST DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES.

ALSO LIKE I HAVE BEEN SAYING I THINK BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE
WILL BE SEEING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. WITH AN UPPER
LOW THAT DEEP SO CLOSE TO US IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE SOME OF THAT COLD
AIR WOULD NOT FINALLY MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. ACTUALLY THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING THIS BUT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF DID
NOT SHOW THIS...WHILE THE 12Z RUN FROM YESTERDAY DID.

BOTTOM LINE THINK...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS WITH THE 06Z FCST IS THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS WITH A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY.

WE HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A COUPLE POP UP SHOWERS NEAR KMKG FOR THE
FIRST HOUR OF THE VALID FCST PERIOD. THESE WILL PRODUCE SOME LOCAL
MVFR IN RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KMKG...BUT WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY
AND WILL LIKELY NOT HIT THE OTHER SITES.

WE EXPECTED A SCT LINE OF SHOWERS TO FORM WEST OF THE AREA TOWARD
12Z AND THEN SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. NOT SURE ALL OF THE
SITES WILL BE DIRECTLY HIT...SO WE HAVE USED A VCSH TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL. IF A SITE GETS HIT BY A SHOWER...SOME MVFR OR EVEN
BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD BE STORMS
TOWARD KLAN AND KJXN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EVERYTHING MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA BY AROUND 22Z.

SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT/SHOWERS.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WEST WINDS WILL BOOST
WAVE HEIGHTS TO AROUND 2 FEET. THUS NO HAZARDS IN THE SHORT TERM.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER A
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04





000
FXUS63 KGRR 290115 CCA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
915 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS UNLIKELY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM DOESN`T IMPRESS ME. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN WISCONSIN HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY DUE TO ITS MOVING INTO THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM.

THE CORE OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WELL NORTH IN WESTERN
ONTARIO AND THAT WILL RESULT IN NOT MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. DESPITE SBCAPE AROUND 1200
J/KG...LI`S ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND THE CWA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET...ALSO NOT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER STORMS.
THERE ISN`T MUCH OF A LLJ EITHER. THE ONE THING THAT THE SYSTEM DOES
HAVE GOING FOR IT IS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.35
INCHES. SO WE MAY HAVE A LOW TOPPED SHOWER SCENARIO WITH BURSTS OF
HEAVIER RAIN. PCPN SHOULD WIND DOWN BY AFTERNOON AFTER WHICH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

I AM GOING TO CONTINUE TO SAY WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING...THE TREND IS
TOWARD COOLER AND WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS (NOT SO MUCH THUNDERSTORMS
EITHER).

IT LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR A UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP AND
STALL OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THIS IS A RATHER UNUSUAL WEATHER
PATTERN FOR LATE JULY OR EARLY AUGUST. THE NAERFS SHOWS THE RETURN
PERIOD OF SUCH AN EVENT (DEEP UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY) TO BE ONE
DAY IN 10 YEARS. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND CAN
BE RELIED ON... WHAT IS QUESTIONABLE IS THE DETAILED SURFACE WEATHER
WE WILL SEE FROM THIS UNUSUAL PATTERN. TYPICALLY THE MODELS DO NOT DO
WELL IN FORECASTING SUCH UNUSUAL PATTERNS. ONE CAN CLEARLY SEE THIS
IN HOW EACH MODEL RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION THAN THE
RUN BEFORE. FROM MODEL TO MODEL THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES AND THE STRENGTH OF THOSE SHORTWAVES
TOO.

I WOULD TOTALLY NOT RELY ON OUR FORECAST POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND. I
REALLY THINK THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THOSE SHORTWAVES AND THE STRENGTH THEREOF. WE HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... BUT THERE IS A SYSTEM COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND IT MAY WELL HAVE SHOWERS WITH IT. IN FACT I
WOULD EXPECT OUR POPS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FRIDAY OVER
TIME. SIMILARLY FOR SATURDAY TOO...BUT THAT COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
SUNDAY... JUST DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES.

ALSO LIKE I HAVE BEEN SAYING I THINK BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE
WILL BE SEEING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. WITH AN UPPER
LOW THAT DEEP SO CLOSE TO US IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE SOME OF THAT COLD
AIR WOULD NOT FINALLY MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. ACTUALLY THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING THIS BUT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF DID
NOT SHOW THIS...WHILE THE 12Z RUN FROM YESTERDAY DID.

BOTTOM LINE THINK...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 802 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN BETWEEN 09-12Z WED. ANY
STORMS/HEAVIER SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND APPROACH KMKG AFTER 09Z WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. AS SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA...SOME INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z TOWARD KLAN AND KJXN. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. VERY
BRIEF IFR IS EVEN POSSIBLE PRIMARILY BETWEEN 15-18Z. BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS IS
LOW AT THIS TIME. PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 18-00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WEST WINDS WILL BOOST
WAVE HEIGHTS TO AROUND 2 FEET. THUS NO HAZARDS IN THE SHORT TERM.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER A
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 290115 CCA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
915 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS UNLIKELY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM DOESN`T IMPRESS ME. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN WISCONSIN HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY DUE TO ITS MOVING INTO THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM.

THE CORE OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WELL NORTH IN WESTERN
ONTARIO AND THAT WILL RESULT IN NOT MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. DESPITE SBCAPE AROUND 1200
J/KG...LI`S ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND THE CWA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET...ALSO NOT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER STORMS.
THERE ISN`T MUCH OF A LLJ EITHER. THE ONE THING THAT THE SYSTEM DOES
HAVE GOING FOR IT IS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.35
INCHES. SO WE MAY HAVE A LOW TOPPED SHOWER SCENARIO WITH BURSTS OF
HEAVIER RAIN. PCPN SHOULD WIND DOWN BY AFTERNOON AFTER WHICH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

I AM GOING TO CONTINUE TO SAY WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING...THE TREND IS
TOWARD COOLER AND WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS (NOT SO MUCH THUNDERSTORMS
EITHER).

IT LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR A UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP AND
STALL OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THIS IS A RATHER UNUSUAL WEATHER
PATTERN FOR LATE JULY OR EARLY AUGUST. THE NAERFS SHOWS THE RETURN
PERIOD OF SUCH AN EVENT (DEEP UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY) TO BE ONE
DAY IN 10 YEARS. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND CAN
BE RELIED ON... WHAT IS QUESTIONABLE IS THE DETAILED SURFACE WEATHER
WE WILL SEE FROM THIS UNUSUAL PATTERN. TYPICALLY THE MODELS DO NOT DO
WELL IN FORECASTING SUCH UNUSUAL PATTERNS. ONE CAN CLEARLY SEE THIS
IN HOW EACH MODEL RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION THAN THE
RUN BEFORE. FROM MODEL TO MODEL THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES AND THE STRENGTH OF THOSE SHORTWAVES
TOO.

I WOULD TOTALLY NOT RELY ON OUR FORECAST POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND. I
REALLY THINK THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THOSE SHORTWAVES AND THE STRENGTH THEREOF. WE HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... BUT THERE IS A SYSTEM COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND IT MAY WELL HAVE SHOWERS WITH IT. IN FACT I
WOULD EXPECT OUR POPS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FRIDAY OVER
TIME. SIMILARLY FOR SATURDAY TOO...BUT THAT COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
SUNDAY... JUST DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES.

ALSO LIKE I HAVE BEEN SAYING I THINK BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE
WILL BE SEEING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. WITH AN UPPER
LOW THAT DEEP SO CLOSE TO US IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE SOME OF THAT COLD
AIR WOULD NOT FINALLY MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. ACTUALLY THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING THIS BUT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF DID
NOT SHOW THIS...WHILE THE 12Z RUN FROM YESTERDAY DID.

BOTTOM LINE THINK...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 802 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN BETWEEN 09-12Z WED. ANY
STORMS/HEAVIER SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND APPROACH KMKG AFTER 09Z WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. AS SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA...SOME INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z TOWARD KLAN AND KJXN. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. VERY
BRIEF IFR IS EVEN POSSIBLE PRIMARILY BETWEEN 15-18Z. BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS IS
LOW AT THIS TIME. PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 18-00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WEST WINDS WILL BOOST
WAVE HEIGHTS TO AROUND 2 FEET. THUS NO HAZARDS IN THE SHORT TERM.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER A
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04





000
FXUS63 KGRR 290002
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
802 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS UNLIKELY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM DOESN`T IMPRESS ME. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN WISCONSIN HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY DUE TO ITS MOVING INTO THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM.

THE CORE OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WELL NORTH IN WESTERN
ONTARIO AND THAT WILL RESULT IN NOT MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. DESPITE SBCAPE AROUND 1200
J/KG...LI`S ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND THE CWA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET...ALSO NOT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER STORMS.
THERE ISN`T MUCH OF A LLJ EITHER. THE ONE THING THAT THE SYSTEM DOES
HAVE GOING FOR IT IS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.35
INCHES. SO WE MAY HAVE A LOW TOPPED SHOWER SCENARIO WITH BURSTS OF
HEAVIER RAIN. PCPN SHOULD WIND DOWN BY AFTERNOON AFTER WHICH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

I AM GOING TO CONTINUE TO SAY WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING...THE TREND IS
TOWARD COOLER AND WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS (NOT SO MUCH THUNDERSTORMS
EITHER).

IT LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR A UNSUALLY DEEP UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP AND
STALL OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THIS IS A RATHER UNUSUAL WEATHER
PATTERN FOR LATE JULY OR EARLY AUGUST. THE NAERFS SHOWS THE RETURN
PERIOD OF SUCH AN EVENT (DEEP UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY) TO BE ONE
DAY IN 10 YEARS. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND CAN
BE RELIED ON... WHAT IS QUESTIONABLE IS THE DETAILED SURFACE WEATHER
WE WILL SEE FROM THIS UNUSAL PATTERN. TYPICALLY THE MODELS DO NOT DO
WELL IN FORECASTING SUCH USUSUAL PATTERNS. ONE CAN CLEARLY SEE THIS
IN HOW EACH MODEL RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION THAN THE
RUN BEFORE. FROM MODEL TO MODEL THERE ARE SIGNIFCANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES AND THE STRENGHT OF THOSE SHORTWAVES
TOO.

I WOULD TOTALLY NOT RELAY ON OUR FORECAST POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND. I
REALLY THINK THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THOSE SHORTWAVES AND THE STRENGTH THEREOF. WE HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... BUT THERE IS A SYSTEM COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND IT MAY WELL HAVE SHOWERS WITH IT. IN FACT I
WOULD EXPECT OUR POPS TO INCREASE SIGNIFCANTLY FOR FRIDAY OVER TIME.
SIMILARLY FOR SATURDAY TOO...BUT THAT COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
SUNDAY... JUST DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES.

ALSO LIKE I HAVE BEEN SAYING I THINK BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE
WILL BE SEEING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. WITH AN UPPER
LOW THAT DEEP SO CLOSE TO US IT IS HARD TO IMAINGE SOME OF THAT COLD
AIR WOULD NOT FINALLY MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. ACTUALLY THE LATEST
GFS AND ECWMF ARE NOW SHOWING THIS BUT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF DID
NOT SHOW THIS...WHILE THE 12Z RUN FROM YESTERDAY DID.

BOTTOM LINE THINK...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 802 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN BETWEEN 09-12Z WED. ANY
STORMS/HEAVIER SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND APPROACH KMKG AFTER 09Z WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. AS SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA...SOME INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z TOWARD KLAN AND KJXN. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. VERY
BRIEF IFR IS EVEN POSSIBLE PRIMARILY BETWEEN 15-18Z. BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS IS
LOW AT THIS TIME. PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 18-00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WEST WINDS WILL BOOST
WAVE HEIGHTS TO AROUND 2 FEET. THUS NO HAZARDS IN THE SHORT TERM.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER A
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04





000
FXUS63 KGRR 290002
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
802 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS UNLIKELY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM DOESN`T IMPRESS ME. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN WISCONSIN HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY DUE TO ITS MOVING INTO THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM.

THE CORE OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WELL NORTH IN WESTERN
ONTARIO AND THAT WILL RESULT IN NOT MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. DESPITE SBCAPE AROUND 1200
J/KG...LI`S ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND THE CWA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET...ALSO NOT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER STORMS.
THERE ISN`T MUCH OF A LLJ EITHER. THE ONE THING THAT THE SYSTEM DOES
HAVE GOING FOR IT IS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.35
INCHES. SO WE MAY HAVE A LOW TOPPED SHOWER SCENARIO WITH BURSTS OF
HEAVIER RAIN. PCPN SHOULD WIND DOWN BY AFTERNOON AFTER WHICH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

I AM GOING TO CONTINUE TO SAY WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING...THE TREND IS
TOWARD COOLER AND WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS (NOT SO MUCH THUNDERSTORMS
EITHER).

IT LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR A UNSUALLY DEEP UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP AND
STALL OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THIS IS A RATHER UNUSUAL WEATHER
PATTERN FOR LATE JULY OR EARLY AUGUST. THE NAERFS SHOWS THE RETURN
PERIOD OF SUCH AN EVENT (DEEP UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY) TO BE ONE
DAY IN 10 YEARS. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND CAN
BE RELIED ON... WHAT IS QUESTIONABLE IS THE DETAILED SURFACE WEATHER
WE WILL SEE FROM THIS UNUSAL PATTERN. TYPICALLY THE MODELS DO NOT DO
WELL IN FORECASTING SUCH USUSUAL PATTERNS. ONE CAN CLEARLY SEE THIS
IN HOW EACH MODEL RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION THAN THE
RUN BEFORE. FROM MODEL TO MODEL THERE ARE SIGNIFCANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES AND THE STRENGHT OF THOSE SHORTWAVES
TOO.

I WOULD TOTALLY NOT RELAY ON OUR FORECAST POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND. I
REALLY THINK THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THOSE SHORTWAVES AND THE STRENGTH THEREOF. WE HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... BUT THERE IS A SYSTEM COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND IT MAY WELL HAVE SHOWERS WITH IT. IN FACT I
WOULD EXPECT OUR POPS TO INCREASE SIGNIFCANTLY FOR FRIDAY OVER TIME.
SIMILARLY FOR SATURDAY TOO...BUT THAT COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
SUNDAY... JUST DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES.

ALSO LIKE I HAVE BEEN SAYING I THINK BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE
WILL BE SEEING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. WITH AN UPPER
LOW THAT DEEP SO CLOSE TO US IT IS HARD TO IMAINGE SOME OF THAT COLD
AIR WOULD NOT FINALLY MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. ACTUALLY THE LATEST
GFS AND ECWMF ARE NOW SHOWING THIS BUT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF DID
NOT SHOW THIS...WHILE THE 12Z RUN FROM YESTERDAY DID.

BOTTOM LINE THINK...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 802 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN BETWEEN 09-12Z WED. ANY
STORMS/HEAVIER SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND APPROACH KMKG AFTER 09Z WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. AS SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA...SOME INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z TOWARD KLAN AND KJXN. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. VERY
BRIEF IFR IS EVEN POSSIBLE PRIMARILY BETWEEN 15-18Z. BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS IS
LOW AT THIS TIME. PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 18-00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WEST WINDS WILL BOOST
WAVE HEIGHTS TO AROUND 2 FEET. THUS NO HAZARDS IN THE SHORT TERM.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER A
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 281920
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS UNLIKELY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM DOESN`T IMPRESS ME. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN WISCONSIN HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY DUE TO ITS MOVING INTO THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM.

THE CORE OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WELL NORTH IN WESTERN
ONTARIO AND THAT WILL RESULT IN NOT MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. DESPITE SBCAPE AROUND 1200
J/KG...LI`S ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND THE CWA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET...ALSO NOT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER STORMS.
THERE ISN`T MUCH OF A LLJ EITHER. THE ONE THING THAT THE SYSTEM DOES
HAVE GOING FOR IT IS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.35
INCHES. SO WE MAY HAVE A LOW TOPPED SHOWER SCENARIO WITH BURSTS OF
HEAVIER RAIN. PCPN SHOULD WIND DOWN BY AFTERNOON AFTER WHICH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

I AM GOING TO CONTINUE TO SAY WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING...THE TREND IS
TOWARD COOLER AND WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS (NOT SO MUCH THUNDERSTORMS
EITHER).

IT LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR A UNSUALLY DEEP UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP AND
STALL OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THIS IS A RATHER UNUSUAL WEATHER
PATTERN FOR LATE JULY OR EARLY AUGUST. THE NAERFS SHOWS THE RETURN
PERIOD OF SUCH AN EVENT (DEEP UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY) TO BE ONE
DAY IN 10 YEARS. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND CAN
BE RELIED ON... WHAT IS QUESTIONABLE IS THE DETAILED SURFACE WEATHER
WE WILL SEE FROM THIS UNUSAL PATTERN. TYPICALLY THE MODELS DO NOT DO
WELL IN FORECASTING SUCH USUSUAL PATTERNS. ONE CAN CLEARLY SEE THIS
IN HOW EACH MODEL RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION THAN THE
RUN BEFORE. FROM MODEL TO MODEL THERE ARE SIGNIFCANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES AND THE STRENGHT OF THOSE SHORTWAVES
TOO.

I WOULD TOTALLY NOT RELAY ON OUR FORECAST POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND. I
REALLY THINK THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THOSE SHORTWAVES AND THE STRENGTH THEREOF. WE HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... BUT THERE IS A SYSTEM COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND IT MAY WELL HAVE SHOWERS WITH IT. IN FACT I
WOULD EXPECT OUR POPS TO INCREASE SIGNIFCANTLY FOR FRIDAY OVER TIME.
SIMILARLY FOR SATURDAY TOO...BUT THAT COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
SUNDAY... JUST DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES.

ALSO LIKE I HAVE BEEN SAYING I THINK BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE
WILL BE SEEING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. WITH AN UPPER
LOW THAT DEEP SO CLOSE TO US IT IS HARD TO IMAINGE SOME OF THAT COLD
AIR WOULD NOT FINALLY MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. ACTUALLY THE LATEST
GFS AND ECWMF ARE NOW SHOWING THIS BUT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF DID
NOT SHOW THIS...WHILE THE 12Z RUN FROM YESTERDAY DID.

BOTTOM LINE THINK...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OF
OUR TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z WEDNESDAY. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WISCONSIN...EASTERN IOWAN AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THANKS TO THE
DEEP INFLOW OF DRY AIR OFF THE CANADIAN SHIELD...BELOW 10000 FT
AGL THIS AFTERNOON. AT MOST EXPECT LAYER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS
THE CLOUDS THAT REMAIN FROM THOSE SHOWERS MOVE OVERHEAD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEST OF CHICAGO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HEAD TOWARD SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN JUST AFTER SUNRISE. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO RUN
INTO DRY AIR IN FRONT OF IT AND HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING ACROSS THE
TAF SITES...HOWEVER THIS TIME THERE IS A FRONT HELPING THE CAUSE
SOME. AS A RESULT I PUT VCSH AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE MID
MORNING HOURS. FOR LAN AND JXN...BEING FARTHER EAST... I PUT VCTS
SINCE BY THE TIME THE SHOWERS WOULD GET THAT FAR EAST...THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IF THERE WOULD BE ANY
MVFR OR IFR... IT WOULD BE WITH THOSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WEST WINDS WILL BOOST
WAVE HEIGHTS TO AROUND 2 FEET. THUS NO HAZARDS IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER A
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04





000
FXUS63 KGRR 281920
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS UNLIKELY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM DOESN`T IMPRESS ME. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN WISCONSIN HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY DUE TO ITS MOVING INTO THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM.

THE CORE OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WELL NORTH IN WESTERN
ONTARIO AND THAT WILL RESULT IN NOT MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. DESPITE SBCAPE AROUND 1200
J/KG...LI`S ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND THE CWA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET...ALSO NOT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER STORMS.
THERE ISN`T MUCH OF A LLJ EITHER. THE ONE THING THAT THE SYSTEM DOES
HAVE GOING FOR IT IS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.35
INCHES. SO WE MAY HAVE A LOW TOPPED SHOWER SCENARIO WITH BURSTS OF
HEAVIER RAIN. PCPN SHOULD WIND DOWN BY AFTERNOON AFTER WHICH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

I AM GOING TO CONTINUE TO SAY WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING...THE TREND IS
TOWARD COOLER AND WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS (NOT SO MUCH THUNDERSTORMS
EITHER).

IT LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR A UNSUALLY DEEP UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP AND
STALL OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THIS IS A RATHER UNUSUAL WEATHER
PATTERN FOR LATE JULY OR EARLY AUGUST. THE NAERFS SHOWS THE RETURN
PERIOD OF SUCH AN EVENT (DEEP UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY) TO BE ONE
DAY IN 10 YEARS. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND CAN
BE RELIED ON... WHAT IS QUESTIONABLE IS THE DETAILED SURFACE WEATHER
WE WILL SEE FROM THIS UNUSAL PATTERN. TYPICALLY THE MODELS DO NOT DO
WELL IN FORECASTING SUCH USUSUAL PATTERNS. ONE CAN CLEARLY SEE THIS
IN HOW EACH MODEL RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION THAN THE
RUN BEFORE. FROM MODEL TO MODEL THERE ARE SIGNIFCANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES AND THE STRENGHT OF THOSE SHORTWAVES
TOO.

I WOULD TOTALLY NOT RELAY ON OUR FORECAST POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND. I
REALLY THINK THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THOSE SHORTWAVES AND THE STRENGTH THEREOF. WE HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... BUT THERE IS A SYSTEM COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND IT MAY WELL HAVE SHOWERS WITH IT. IN FACT I
WOULD EXPECT OUR POPS TO INCREASE SIGNIFCANTLY FOR FRIDAY OVER TIME.
SIMILARLY FOR SATURDAY TOO...BUT THAT COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
SUNDAY... JUST DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES.

ALSO LIKE I HAVE BEEN SAYING I THINK BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE
WILL BE SEEING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. WITH AN UPPER
LOW THAT DEEP SO CLOSE TO US IT IS HARD TO IMAINGE SOME OF THAT COLD
AIR WOULD NOT FINALLY MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. ACTUALLY THE LATEST
GFS AND ECWMF ARE NOW SHOWING THIS BUT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF DID
NOT SHOW THIS...WHILE THE 12Z RUN FROM YESTERDAY DID.

BOTTOM LINE THINK...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OF
OUR TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z WEDNESDAY. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WISCONSIN...EASTERN IOWAN AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THANKS TO THE
DEEP INFLOW OF DRY AIR OFF THE CANADIAN SHIELD...BELOW 10000 FT
AGL THIS AFTERNOON. AT MOST EXPECT LAYER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS
THE CLOUDS THAT REMAIN FROM THOSE SHOWERS MOVE OVERHEAD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEST OF CHICAGO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HEAD TOWARD SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN JUST AFTER SUNRISE. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO RUN
INTO DRY AIR IN FRONT OF IT AND HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING ACROSS THE
TAF SITES...HOWEVER THIS TIME THERE IS A FRONT HELPING THE CAUSE
SOME. AS A RESULT I PUT VCSH AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE MID
MORNING HOURS. FOR LAN AND JXN...BEING FARTHER EAST... I PUT VCTS
SINCE BY THE TIME THE SHOWERS WOULD GET THAT FAR EAST...THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IF THERE WOULD BE ANY
MVFR OR IFR... IT WOULD BE WITH THOSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WEST WINDS WILL BOOST
WAVE HEIGHTS TO AROUND 2 FEET. THUS NO HAZARDS IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER A
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 281803
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
203 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THE INCOMING FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS. IT HAS BEEN OVER A WEEK NOW WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL SO
WE COULD USE SOME RAIN.

UNFORTUNATELY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH TO OFFER IN
TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. THAT SAID THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR TWO INCHES WHICH DOES SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE SERIOUSLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST... TRACKING FROM THE
NRN PLAINS NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS RESULTS IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20 KTS...GREATLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION WEDNESDAY
BEFORE FROPA AS MU CAPE PROGS SHOW NEAR 2000 J/KG SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS AROUND JXN BEFORE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PUSHES
CONVECTION COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. THE
LAKESHORE SHOULD BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN INLAND AREAS AGAIN WITH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD COOL THE BEACHES A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS FOR A DELAY IN
SOLID PCPN CHCS TO SAT NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE CHC OF RAIN FOR FRI IS NOT ZERO...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO BE LOW
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A WEAK FRONT
DOES LOOK TO DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AS
UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE A BETTER HOLD ON THE AREA. THE ISSUE
WITH PCPN WITH THIS FRONT IS THAT THE UPPER ENERGY STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE W/NW. THE WRLY FLOW WILL ALSO LIMIT PCPN CHCS BEING
DOWNWIND OF THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

SAT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA NOW WITH THE WEAK FRONT COMING
THROUGH ON FRI AND THE NEXT SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL SAT
NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THAT MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND
THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS DROP ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND REMAIN IN
THE MID TEENS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SUN AND MON DO CONTINUE TO LOOK SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL
CHCS FOR RAIN EACH OF THE DAYS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHC THAT WE
WILL SEE WAVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE PCPN CHCS A BOOST. IN
ADDITION...THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING IN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH BETTER WIND FIELDS ALOFT HELPING SHEAR
VALUES...AND SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THESE WAVES. PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR THE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OF
OUR TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z WEDNESDAY. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WISCONSIN...EASTERN IOWAN AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THANKS TO THE
DEEP INFLOW OF DRY AIR OFF THE CANADIAN SHIELD...BELOW 10000 FT
AGL THIS AFTERNOON. AT MOST EXPECT LAYER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS
THE CLOUDS THAT REMAIN FROM THOSE SHOWERS MOVE OVERHEAD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEST OF CHICAGO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HEAD TOWARD SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN JUST AFTER SUNRISE. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO RUN
INTO DRY AIR IN FRONT OF IT AND HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING ACROSS THE
TAF SITES...HOWEVER THIS TIME THERE IS A FRONT HELPING THE CAUSE
SOME. AS A RESULT I PUT VCSH AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE MID
MORNING HOURS. FOR LAN AND JXN...BEING FARTHER EAST... I PUT VCTS
SINCE BY THE TIME THE SHOWERS WOULD GET THAT FAR EAST...THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IF THERE WOULD BE ANY
MVFR OR IFR... IT WOULD BE WITH THOSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD WAVES... BUT PROBABLY ONLY TO 1 TO 3 FEET NORTH
OF HOLLAND. THE WESTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF 2
TO 4 FOOTERS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER A
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 281803
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
203 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THE INCOMING FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS. IT HAS BEEN OVER A WEEK NOW WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL SO
WE COULD USE SOME RAIN.

UNFORTUNATELY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH TO OFFER IN
TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. THAT SAID THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR TWO INCHES WHICH DOES SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE SERIOUSLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST... TRACKING FROM THE
NRN PLAINS NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS RESULTS IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20 KTS...GREATLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION WEDNESDAY
BEFORE FROPA AS MU CAPE PROGS SHOW NEAR 2000 J/KG SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS AROUND JXN BEFORE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PUSHES
CONVECTION COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. THE
LAKESHORE SHOULD BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN INLAND AREAS AGAIN WITH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD COOL THE BEACHES A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS FOR A DELAY IN
SOLID PCPN CHCS TO SAT NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE CHC OF RAIN FOR FRI IS NOT ZERO...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO BE LOW
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A WEAK FRONT
DOES LOOK TO DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AS
UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE A BETTER HOLD ON THE AREA. THE ISSUE
WITH PCPN WITH THIS FRONT IS THAT THE UPPER ENERGY STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE W/NW. THE WRLY FLOW WILL ALSO LIMIT PCPN CHCS BEING
DOWNWIND OF THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

SAT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA NOW WITH THE WEAK FRONT COMING
THROUGH ON FRI AND THE NEXT SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL SAT
NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THAT MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND
THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS DROP ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND REMAIN IN
THE MID TEENS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SUN AND MON DO CONTINUE TO LOOK SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL
CHCS FOR RAIN EACH OF THE DAYS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHC THAT WE
WILL SEE WAVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE PCPN CHCS A BOOST. IN
ADDITION...THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING IN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH BETTER WIND FIELDS ALOFT HELPING SHEAR
VALUES...AND SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THESE WAVES. PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR THE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OF
OUR TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z WEDNESDAY. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WISCONSIN...EASTERN IOWAN AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THANKS TO THE
DEEP INFLOW OF DRY AIR OFF THE CANADIAN SHIELD...BELOW 10000 FT
AGL THIS AFTERNOON. AT MOST EXPECT LAYER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS
THE CLOUDS THAT REMAIN FROM THOSE SHOWERS MOVE OVERHEAD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEST OF CHICAGO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HEAD TOWARD SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN JUST AFTER SUNRISE. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO RUN
INTO DRY AIR IN FRONT OF IT AND HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING ACROSS THE
TAF SITES...HOWEVER THIS TIME THERE IS A FRONT HELPING THE CAUSE
SOME. AS A RESULT I PUT VCSH AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE MID
MORNING HOURS. FOR LAN AND JXN...BEING FARTHER EAST... I PUT VCTS
SINCE BY THE TIME THE SHOWERS WOULD GET THAT FAR EAST...THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IF THERE WOULD BE ANY
MVFR OR IFR... IT WOULD BE WITH THOSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD WAVES... BUT PROBABLY ONLY TO 1 TO 3 FEET NORTH
OF HOLLAND. THE WESTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF 2
TO 4 FOOTERS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER A
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 281803
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
203 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THE INCOMING FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS. IT HAS BEEN OVER A WEEK NOW WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL SO
WE COULD USE SOME RAIN.

UNFORTUNATELY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH TO OFFER IN
TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. THAT SAID THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR TWO INCHES WHICH DOES SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE SERIOUSLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST... TRACKING FROM THE
NRN PLAINS NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS RESULTS IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20 KTS...GREATLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION WEDNESDAY
BEFORE FROPA AS MU CAPE PROGS SHOW NEAR 2000 J/KG SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS AROUND JXN BEFORE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PUSHES
CONVECTION COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. THE
LAKESHORE SHOULD BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN INLAND AREAS AGAIN WITH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD COOL THE BEACHES A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS FOR A DELAY IN
SOLID PCPN CHCS TO SAT NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE CHC OF RAIN FOR FRI IS NOT ZERO...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO BE LOW
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A WEAK FRONT
DOES LOOK TO DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AS
UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE A BETTER HOLD ON THE AREA. THE ISSUE
WITH PCPN WITH THIS FRONT IS THAT THE UPPER ENERGY STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE W/NW. THE WRLY FLOW WILL ALSO LIMIT PCPN CHCS BEING
DOWNWIND OF THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

SAT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA NOW WITH THE WEAK FRONT COMING
THROUGH ON FRI AND THE NEXT SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL SAT
NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THAT MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND
THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS DROP ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND REMAIN IN
THE MID TEENS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SUN AND MON DO CONTINUE TO LOOK SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL
CHCS FOR RAIN EACH OF THE DAYS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHC THAT WE
WILL SEE WAVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE PCPN CHCS A BOOST. IN
ADDITION...THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING IN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH BETTER WIND FIELDS ALOFT HELPING SHEAR
VALUES...AND SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THESE WAVES. PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR THE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OF
OUR TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z WEDNESDAY. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WISCONSIN...EASTERN IOWAN AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THANKS TO THE
DEEP INFLOW OF DRY AIR OFF THE CANADIAN SHIELD...BELOW 10000 FT
AGL THIS AFTERNOON. AT MOST EXPECT LAYER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS
THE CLOUDS THAT REMAIN FROM THOSE SHOWERS MOVE OVERHEAD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEST OF CHICAGO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HEAD TOWARD SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN JUST AFTER SUNRISE. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO RUN
INTO DRY AIR IN FRONT OF IT AND HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING ACROSS THE
TAF SITES...HOWEVER THIS TIME THERE IS A FRONT HELPING THE CAUSE
SOME. AS A RESULT I PUT VCSH AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE MID
MORNING HOURS. FOR LAN AND JXN...BEING FARTHER EAST... I PUT VCTS
SINCE BY THE TIME THE SHOWERS WOULD GET THAT FAR EAST...THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IF THERE WOULD BE ANY
MVFR OR IFR... IT WOULD BE WITH THOSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD WAVES... BUT PROBABLY ONLY TO 1 TO 3 FEET NORTH
OF HOLLAND. THE WESTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF 2
TO 4 FOOTERS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER A
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 281650
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THE INCOMING FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS. IT HAS BEEN OVER A WEEK NOW WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL SO
WE COULD USE SOME RAIN.

UNFORTUNATELY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH TO OFFER IN
TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. THAT SAID THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR TWO INCHES WHICH DOES SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE SERIOUSLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST... TRACKING FROM THE
NRN PLAINS NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS RESULTS IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20 KTS...GREATLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION WEDNESDAY
BEFORE FROPA AS MU CAPE PROGS SHOW NEAR 2000 J/KG SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS AROUND JXN BEFORE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PUSHES
CONVECTION COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. THE
LAKESHORE SHOULD BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN INLAND AREAS AGAIN WITH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD COOL THE BEACHES A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS FOR A DELAY IN
SOLID PCPN CHCS TO SAT NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE CHC OF RAIN FOR FRI IS NOT ZERO...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO BE LOW
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A WEAK FRONT
DOES LOOK TO DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AS
UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE A BETTER HOLD ON THE AREA. THE ISSUE
WITH PCPN WITH THIS FRONT IS THAT THE UPPER ENERGY STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE W/NW. THE WRLY FLOW WILL ALSO LIMIT PCPN CHCS BEING
DOWNWIND OF THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

SAT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA NOW WITH THE WEAK FRONT COMING
THROUGH ON FRI AND THE NEXT SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL SAT
NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THAT MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND
THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS DROP ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND REMAIN IN
THE MID TEENS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SUN AND MON DO CONTINUE TO LOOK SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL
CHCS FOR RAIN EACH OF THE DAYS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHC THAT WE
WILL SEE WAVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE PCPN CHCS A BOOST. IN
ADDITION...THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING IN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH BETTER WIND FIELDS ALOFT HELPING SHEAR
VALUES...AND SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THESE WAVES. PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR THE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

PATCHY MVFR/IFR GROUND FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z OTHERWISE VFR WEATHER
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z ALTHOUGH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
12,000 FT MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND 4000 FT AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH MKG
TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY. A TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER BUT
THE PROBABILTY IS TOO LOW TO HAVE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD WAVES... BUT PROBABLY ONLY TO 1 TO 3 FEET NORTH
OF HOLLAND. THE WESTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF 2
TO 4 FOOTERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER A
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 281650
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THE INCOMING FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS. IT HAS BEEN OVER A WEEK NOW WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL SO
WE COULD USE SOME RAIN.

UNFORTUNATELY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH TO OFFER IN
TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. THAT SAID THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR TWO INCHES WHICH DOES SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE SERIOUSLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST... TRACKING FROM THE
NRN PLAINS NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS RESULTS IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20 KTS...GREATLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION WEDNESDAY
BEFORE FROPA AS MU CAPE PROGS SHOW NEAR 2000 J/KG SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS AROUND JXN BEFORE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PUSHES
CONVECTION COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. THE
LAKESHORE SHOULD BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN INLAND AREAS AGAIN WITH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD COOL THE BEACHES A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS FOR A DELAY IN
SOLID PCPN CHCS TO SAT NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE CHC OF RAIN FOR FRI IS NOT ZERO...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO BE LOW
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A WEAK FRONT
DOES LOOK TO DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AS
UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE A BETTER HOLD ON THE AREA. THE ISSUE
WITH PCPN WITH THIS FRONT IS THAT THE UPPER ENERGY STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE W/NW. THE WRLY FLOW WILL ALSO LIMIT PCPN CHCS BEING
DOWNWIND OF THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

SAT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA NOW WITH THE WEAK FRONT COMING
THROUGH ON FRI AND THE NEXT SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL SAT
NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THAT MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND
THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS DROP ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND REMAIN IN
THE MID TEENS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SUN AND MON DO CONTINUE TO LOOK SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL
CHCS FOR RAIN EACH OF THE DAYS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHC THAT WE
WILL SEE WAVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE PCPN CHCS A BOOST. IN
ADDITION...THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING IN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH BETTER WIND FIELDS ALOFT HELPING SHEAR
VALUES...AND SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THESE WAVES. PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR THE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

PATCHY MVFR/IFR GROUND FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z OTHERWISE VFR WEATHER
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z ALTHOUGH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
12,000 FT MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND 4000 FT AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH MKG
TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY. A TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER BUT
THE PROBABILTY IS TOO LOW TO HAVE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD WAVES... BUT PROBABLY ONLY TO 1 TO 3 FEET NORTH
OF HOLLAND. THE WESTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF 2
TO 4 FOOTERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER A
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 281650
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THE INCOMING FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS. IT HAS BEEN OVER A WEEK NOW WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL SO
WE COULD USE SOME RAIN.

UNFORTUNATELY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH TO OFFER IN
TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. THAT SAID THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR TWO INCHES WHICH DOES SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE SERIOUSLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST... TRACKING FROM THE
NRN PLAINS NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS RESULTS IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20 KTS...GREATLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION WEDNESDAY
BEFORE FROPA AS MU CAPE PROGS SHOW NEAR 2000 J/KG SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS AROUND JXN BEFORE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PUSHES
CONVECTION COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. THE
LAKESHORE SHOULD BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN INLAND AREAS AGAIN WITH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD COOL THE BEACHES A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS FOR A DELAY IN
SOLID PCPN CHCS TO SAT NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE CHC OF RAIN FOR FRI IS NOT ZERO...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO BE LOW
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A WEAK FRONT
DOES LOOK TO DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AS
UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE A BETTER HOLD ON THE AREA. THE ISSUE
WITH PCPN WITH THIS FRONT IS THAT THE UPPER ENERGY STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE W/NW. THE WRLY FLOW WILL ALSO LIMIT PCPN CHCS BEING
DOWNWIND OF THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

SAT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA NOW WITH THE WEAK FRONT COMING
THROUGH ON FRI AND THE NEXT SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL SAT
NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THAT MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND
THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS DROP ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND REMAIN IN
THE MID TEENS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SUN AND MON DO CONTINUE TO LOOK SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL
CHCS FOR RAIN EACH OF THE DAYS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHC THAT WE
WILL SEE WAVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE PCPN CHCS A BOOST. IN
ADDITION...THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING IN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH BETTER WIND FIELDS ALOFT HELPING SHEAR
VALUES...AND SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THESE WAVES. PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR THE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

PATCHY MVFR/IFR GROUND FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z OTHERWISE VFR WEATHER
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z ALTHOUGH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
12,000 FT MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND 4000 FT AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH MKG
TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY. A TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER BUT
THE PROBABILTY IS TOO LOW TO HAVE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD WAVES... BUT PROBABLY ONLY TO 1 TO 3 FEET NORTH
OF HOLLAND. THE WESTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF 2
TO 4 FOOTERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER A
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 281036
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
636 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THE INCOMING FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS. IT HAS BEEN OVER A WEEK NOW WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL SO
WE COULD USE SOME RAIN.

UNFORTUNATELY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH TO OFFER IN
TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. THAT SAID THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR TWO INCHES WHICH DOES SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE SERIOUSLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST... TRACKING FROM THE
NRN PLAINS NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS RESULTS IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20 KTS...GREATLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION WEDNESDAY
BEFORE FROPA AS MU CAPE PROGS SHOW NEAR 2000 J/KG SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS AROUND JXN BEFORE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PUSHES
CONVECTION COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. THE
LAKESHORE SHOULD BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN INLAND AREAS AGAIN WITH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD COOL THE BEACHES A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS FOR A DELAY IN
SOLID PCPN CHCS TO SAT NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE CHC OF RAIN FOR FRI IS NOT ZERO...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO BE LOW
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A WEAK FRONT
DOES LOOK TO DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AS
UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE A BETTER HOLD ON THE AREA. THE ISSUE
WITH PCPN WITH THIS FRONT IS THAT THE UPPER ENERGY STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE W/NW. THE WRLY FLOW WILL ALSO LIMIT PCPN CHCS BEING
DOWNWIND OF THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

SAT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA NOW WITH THE WEAK FRONT COMING
THROUGH ON FRI AND THE NEXT SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL SAT
NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THAT MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND
THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS DROP ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND REMAIN IN
THE MID TEENS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SUN AND MON DO CONTINUE TO LOOK SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL
CHCS FOR RAIN EACH OF THE DAYS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHC THAT WE
WILL SEE WAVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE PCPN CHCS A BOOST. IN
ADDITION...THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING IN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH BETTER WIND FIELDS ALOFT HELPING SHEAR
VALUES...AND SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THESE WAVES. PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR THE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

PATCHY MVFR/IFR GROUND FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z OTHERWISE VFR WEATHER
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z ALTHOUGH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
12,000 FT MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND 4000 FT AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH MKG
TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY. A TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER BUT
THE PROBABILTY IS TOO LOW TO HAVE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD WAVES... BUT PROBABLY ONLY TO 1 TO 3 FEET NORTH
OF HOLLAND. THE WESTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF 2
TO 4 FOOTERS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND ARE WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 281036
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
636 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THE INCOMING FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS. IT HAS BEEN OVER A WEEK NOW WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL SO
WE COULD USE SOME RAIN.

UNFORTUNATELY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH TO OFFER IN
TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. THAT SAID THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR TWO INCHES WHICH DOES SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE SERIOUSLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST... TRACKING FROM THE
NRN PLAINS NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS RESULTS IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20 KTS...GREATLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION WEDNESDAY
BEFORE FROPA AS MU CAPE PROGS SHOW NEAR 2000 J/KG SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS AROUND JXN BEFORE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PUSHES
CONVECTION COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. THE
LAKESHORE SHOULD BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN INLAND AREAS AGAIN WITH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD COOL THE BEACHES A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS FOR A DELAY IN
SOLID PCPN CHCS TO SAT NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE CHC OF RAIN FOR FRI IS NOT ZERO...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO BE LOW
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A WEAK FRONT
DOES LOOK TO DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AS
UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE A BETTER HOLD ON THE AREA. THE ISSUE
WITH PCPN WITH THIS FRONT IS THAT THE UPPER ENERGY STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE W/NW. THE WRLY FLOW WILL ALSO LIMIT PCPN CHCS BEING
DOWNWIND OF THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

SAT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA NOW WITH THE WEAK FRONT COMING
THROUGH ON FRI AND THE NEXT SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL SAT
NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THAT MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND
THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS DROP ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND REMAIN IN
THE MID TEENS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SUN AND MON DO CONTINUE TO LOOK SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL
CHCS FOR RAIN EACH OF THE DAYS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHC THAT WE
WILL SEE WAVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE PCPN CHCS A BOOST. IN
ADDITION...THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING IN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH BETTER WIND FIELDS ALOFT HELPING SHEAR
VALUES...AND SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THESE WAVES. PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR THE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

PATCHY MVFR/IFR GROUND FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z OTHERWISE VFR WEATHER
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z ALTHOUGH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
12,000 FT MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND 4000 FT AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH MKG
TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY. A TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER BUT
THE PROBABILTY IS TOO LOW TO HAVE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD WAVES... BUT PROBABLY ONLY TO 1 TO 3 FEET NORTH
OF HOLLAND. THE WESTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF 2
TO 4 FOOTERS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND ARE WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 281036
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
636 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THE INCOMING FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS. IT HAS BEEN OVER A WEEK NOW WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL SO
WE COULD USE SOME RAIN.

UNFORTUNATELY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH TO OFFER IN
TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. THAT SAID THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR TWO INCHES WHICH DOES SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE SERIOUSLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST... TRACKING FROM THE
NRN PLAINS NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS RESULTS IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20 KTS...GREATLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION WEDNESDAY
BEFORE FROPA AS MU CAPE PROGS SHOW NEAR 2000 J/KG SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS AROUND JXN BEFORE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PUSHES
CONVECTION COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. THE
LAKESHORE SHOULD BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN INLAND AREAS AGAIN WITH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD COOL THE BEACHES A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS FOR A DELAY IN
SOLID PCPN CHCS TO SAT NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE CHC OF RAIN FOR FRI IS NOT ZERO...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO BE LOW
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A WEAK FRONT
DOES LOOK TO DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AS
UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE A BETTER HOLD ON THE AREA. THE ISSUE
WITH PCPN WITH THIS FRONT IS THAT THE UPPER ENERGY STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE W/NW. THE WRLY FLOW WILL ALSO LIMIT PCPN CHCS BEING
DOWNWIND OF THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

SAT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA NOW WITH THE WEAK FRONT COMING
THROUGH ON FRI AND THE NEXT SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL SAT
NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THAT MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND
THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS DROP ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND REMAIN IN
THE MID TEENS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SUN AND MON DO CONTINUE TO LOOK SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL
CHCS FOR RAIN EACH OF THE DAYS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHC THAT WE
WILL SEE WAVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE PCPN CHCS A BOOST. IN
ADDITION...THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING IN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH BETTER WIND FIELDS ALOFT HELPING SHEAR
VALUES...AND SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THESE WAVES. PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR THE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

PATCHY MVFR/IFR GROUND FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z OTHERWISE VFR WEATHER
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z ALTHOUGH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
12,000 FT MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND 4000 FT AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH MKG
TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY. A TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER BUT
THE PROBABILTY IS TOO LOW TO HAVE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD WAVES... BUT PROBABLY ONLY TO 1 TO 3 FEET NORTH
OF HOLLAND. THE WESTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF 2
TO 4 FOOTERS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND ARE WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 281036
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
636 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THE INCOMING FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS. IT HAS BEEN OVER A WEEK NOW WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL SO
WE COULD USE SOME RAIN.

UNFORTUNATELY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH TO OFFER IN
TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. THAT SAID THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR TWO INCHES WHICH DOES SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE SERIOUSLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST... TRACKING FROM THE
NRN PLAINS NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS RESULTS IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20 KTS...GREATLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION WEDNESDAY
BEFORE FROPA AS MU CAPE PROGS SHOW NEAR 2000 J/KG SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS AROUND JXN BEFORE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PUSHES
CONVECTION COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. THE
LAKESHORE SHOULD BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN INLAND AREAS AGAIN WITH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD COOL THE BEACHES A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS FOR A DELAY IN
SOLID PCPN CHCS TO SAT NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE CHC OF RAIN FOR FRI IS NOT ZERO...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO BE LOW
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A WEAK FRONT
DOES LOOK TO DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AS
UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE A BETTER HOLD ON THE AREA. THE ISSUE
WITH PCPN WITH THIS FRONT IS THAT THE UPPER ENERGY STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE W/NW. THE WRLY FLOW WILL ALSO LIMIT PCPN CHCS BEING
DOWNWIND OF THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

SAT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA NOW WITH THE WEAK FRONT COMING
THROUGH ON FRI AND THE NEXT SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL SAT
NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THAT MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND
THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS DROP ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND REMAIN IN
THE MID TEENS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SUN AND MON DO CONTINUE TO LOOK SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL
CHCS FOR RAIN EACH OF THE DAYS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHC THAT WE
WILL SEE WAVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE PCPN CHCS A BOOST. IN
ADDITION...THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING IN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH BETTER WIND FIELDS ALOFT HELPING SHEAR
VALUES...AND SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THESE WAVES. PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR THE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

PATCHY MVFR/IFR GROUND FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z OTHERWISE VFR WEATHER
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z ALTHOUGH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
12,000 FT MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND 4000 FT AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH MKG
TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY. A TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER BUT
THE PROBABILTY IS TOO LOW TO HAVE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD WAVES... BUT PROBABLY ONLY TO 1 TO 3 FEET NORTH
OF HOLLAND. THE WESTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF 2
TO 4 FOOTERS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND ARE WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 280730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH TEMPERTURES NEAR 90 CAN BE EXPECTED
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THE INCOMING FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS. IT HAS BEEN OVER A WEEK NOW WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL SO
WE COULD USE SOME RAIN.

UNFORTUNATELY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH TO OFFER IN
TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. THAT SAID THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR TWO INCHES WHICH DOES SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE SERIOUSLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST... TRACKING FROM THE
NRN PLAINS NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS RESULTS IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20 KTS GREATLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION WEDNESDAY
BEFORE FROPA AS MU CAPE PROGS SHOW NEAR 2000 J/KG SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS AROUND JXN BEFORE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PUSHES
CONVECTION COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. THE
LAKESHORE SHOULD BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN INLAND AREAS AGAIN WITH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD COOL THE BEACHES A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS FOR A DELAY IN
SOLID PCPN CHCS TO SAT NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE CHC OF RAIN FOR FRI IS NOT ZERO...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO BE LOW
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A WEAK FRONT
DOES LOOK TO DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AS
UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE A BETTER HOLD ON THE AREA. THE ISSUE
WITH PCPN WITH THIS FRONT IS THAT THE UPPER ENERGY STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE W/NW. THE WRLY FLOW WILL ALSO LIMIT PCPN CHCS BEING
DOWNWIND OF THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

SAT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA NOW WITH THE WEAK FRONT COMING
THROUGH ON FRI AND THE NEXT SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL SAT
NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THAT MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND
THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS DROP ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND REMAIN IN
THE MID TEENS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SUN AND MON DO CONTINUE TO LOOK SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL
CHCS FOR RAIN EACH OF THE DAYS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHC THAT WE
WILL SEE WAVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE PCPN CHCS A BOOST. IN
ADDITION...THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING IN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH BETTER WIND FIELDS ALOFT HELPING SHEAR
VALUES...AND SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THESE WAVES. PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR THE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS TO AVIATION
INTERESTS THROUGH 06Z WED. THE ONLY THING OF POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANCE
WILL BE ANOTHER CHC OF SOME FOG EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MAINLY BTL
AND KJXN. CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WHEN SOME FOG WAS
EXPERIENCED THERE. ALSO...KBTL IS ALREADY DOWN TO 7SM AS OF 0530Z.

AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SE WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL
RULE. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT KMKG IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THEN DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET TUE EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD WAVES... BUT PROBABLY ONLY TO 1 TO 3 FEET NORTH
OF HOLLAND. THE WESTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF 2
TO 4 FOOTERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND ARE WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 280730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH TEMPERTURES NEAR 90 CAN BE EXPECTED
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THE INCOMING FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS. IT HAS BEEN OVER A WEEK NOW WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL SO
WE COULD USE SOME RAIN.

UNFORTUNATELY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH TO OFFER IN
TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. THAT SAID THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR TWO INCHES WHICH DOES SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE SERIOUSLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST... TRACKING FROM THE
NRN PLAINS NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS RESULTS IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20 KTS GREATLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION WEDNESDAY
BEFORE FROPA AS MU CAPE PROGS SHOW NEAR 2000 J/KG SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS AROUND JXN BEFORE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PUSHES
CONVECTION COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. THE
LAKESHORE SHOULD BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN INLAND AREAS AGAIN WITH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD COOL THE BEACHES A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS FOR A DELAY IN
SOLID PCPN CHCS TO SAT NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE CHC OF RAIN FOR FRI IS NOT ZERO...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO BE LOW
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A WEAK FRONT
DOES LOOK TO DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AS
UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE A BETTER HOLD ON THE AREA. THE ISSUE
WITH PCPN WITH THIS FRONT IS THAT THE UPPER ENERGY STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE W/NW. THE WRLY FLOW WILL ALSO LIMIT PCPN CHCS BEING
DOWNWIND OF THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

SAT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA NOW WITH THE WEAK FRONT COMING
THROUGH ON FRI AND THE NEXT SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL SAT
NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THAT MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND
THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS DROP ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND REMAIN IN
THE MID TEENS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SUN AND MON DO CONTINUE TO LOOK SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL
CHCS FOR RAIN EACH OF THE DAYS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHC THAT WE
WILL SEE WAVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE PCPN CHCS A BOOST. IN
ADDITION...THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING IN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH BETTER WIND FIELDS ALOFT HELPING SHEAR
VALUES...AND SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THESE WAVES. PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR THE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS TO AVIATION
INTERESTS THROUGH 06Z WED. THE ONLY THING OF POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANCE
WILL BE ANOTHER CHC OF SOME FOG EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MAINLY BTL
AND KJXN. CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WHEN SOME FOG WAS
EXPERIENCED THERE. ALSO...KBTL IS ALREADY DOWN TO 7SM AS OF 0530Z.

AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SE WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL
RULE. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT KMKG IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THEN DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET TUE EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD WAVES... BUT PROBABLY ONLY TO 1 TO 3 FEET NORTH
OF HOLLAND. THE WESTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF 2
TO 4 FOOTERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND ARE WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 280730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH TEMPERTURES NEAR 90 CAN BE EXPECTED
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THE INCOMING FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS. IT HAS BEEN OVER A WEEK NOW WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL SO
WE COULD USE SOME RAIN.

UNFORTUNATELY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH TO OFFER IN
TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. THAT SAID THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR TWO INCHES WHICH DOES SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE SERIOUSLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST... TRACKING FROM THE
NRN PLAINS NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS RESULTS IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20 KTS GREATLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION WEDNESDAY
BEFORE FROPA AS MU CAPE PROGS SHOW NEAR 2000 J/KG SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS AROUND JXN BEFORE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PUSHES
CONVECTION COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. THE
LAKESHORE SHOULD BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN INLAND AREAS AGAIN WITH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD COOL THE BEACHES A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS FOR A DELAY IN
SOLID PCPN CHCS TO SAT NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE CHC OF RAIN FOR FRI IS NOT ZERO...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO BE LOW
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A WEAK FRONT
DOES LOOK TO DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AS
UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE A BETTER HOLD ON THE AREA. THE ISSUE
WITH PCPN WITH THIS FRONT IS THAT THE UPPER ENERGY STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE W/NW. THE WRLY FLOW WILL ALSO LIMIT PCPN CHCS BEING
DOWNWIND OF THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

SAT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA NOW WITH THE WEAK FRONT COMING
THROUGH ON FRI AND THE NEXT SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL SAT
NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THAT MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND
THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS DROP ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND REMAIN IN
THE MID TEENS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SUN AND MON DO CONTINUE TO LOOK SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL
CHCS FOR RAIN EACH OF THE DAYS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHC THAT WE
WILL SEE WAVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE PCPN CHCS A BOOST. IN
ADDITION...THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING IN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH BETTER WIND FIELDS ALOFT HELPING SHEAR
VALUES...AND SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THESE WAVES. PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR THE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS TO AVIATION
INTERESTS THROUGH 06Z WED. THE ONLY THING OF POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANCE
WILL BE ANOTHER CHC OF SOME FOG EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MAINLY BTL
AND KJXN. CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WHEN SOME FOG WAS
EXPERIENCED THERE. ALSO...KBTL IS ALREADY DOWN TO 7SM AS OF 0530Z.

AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SE WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL
RULE. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT KMKG IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THEN DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET TUE EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD WAVES... BUT PROBABLY ONLY TO 1 TO 3 FEET NORTH
OF HOLLAND. THE WESTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF 2
TO 4 FOOTERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND ARE WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 280730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH TEMPERTURES NEAR 90 CAN BE EXPECTED
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THE INCOMING FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS. IT HAS BEEN OVER A WEEK NOW WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL SO
WE COULD USE SOME RAIN.

UNFORTUNATELY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH TO OFFER IN
TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. THAT SAID THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR TWO INCHES WHICH DOES SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE SERIOUSLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST... TRACKING FROM THE
NRN PLAINS NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS RESULTS IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20 KTS GREATLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION WEDNESDAY
BEFORE FROPA AS MU CAPE PROGS SHOW NEAR 2000 J/KG SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS AROUND JXN BEFORE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PUSHES
CONVECTION COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. THE
LAKESHORE SHOULD BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN INLAND AREAS AGAIN WITH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD COOL THE BEACHES A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS FOR A DELAY IN
SOLID PCPN CHCS TO SAT NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE CHC OF RAIN FOR FRI IS NOT ZERO...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO BE LOW
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A WEAK FRONT
DOES LOOK TO DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AS
UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE A BETTER HOLD ON THE AREA. THE ISSUE
WITH PCPN WITH THIS FRONT IS THAT THE UPPER ENERGY STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE W/NW. THE WRLY FLOW WILL ALSO LIMIT PCPN CHCS BEING
DOWNWIND OF THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

SAT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA NOW WITH THE WEAK FRONT COMING
THROUGH ON FRI AND THE NEXT SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL SAT
NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THAT MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND
THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS DROP ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND REMAIN IN
THE MID TEENS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SUN AND MON DO CONTINUE TO LOOK SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL
CHCS FOR RAIN EACH OF THE DAYS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHC THAT WE
WILL SEE WAVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE PCPN CHCS A BOOST. IN
ADDITION...THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING IN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH BETTER WIND FIELDS ALOFT HELPING SHEAR
VALUES...AND SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THESE WAVES. PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR THE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS TO AVIATION
INTERESTS THROUGH 06Z WED. THE ONLY THING OF POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANCE
WILL BE ANOTHER CHC OF SOME FOG EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MAINLY BTL
AND KJXN. CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WHEN SOME FOG WAS
EXPERIENCED THERE. ALSO...KBTL IS ALREADY DOWN TO 7SM AS OF 0530Z.

AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SE WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL
RULE. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT KMKG IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THEN DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET TUE EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD WAVES... BUT PROBABLY ONLY TO 1 TO 3 FEET NORTH
OF HOLLAND. THE WESTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF 2
TO 4 FOOTERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND ARE WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 280534
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
134 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. WEAKENING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY CROSS
THE LAKE WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY IMPACTING THE LAKESHORE
REGION. SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN LOWER MI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN CENTERS ON THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE LAKESHORE...ANY RISK FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN CWA.
OVERALL...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW.

A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A SFC COLD
FRONT INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
RESIDES CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE U.P. AND POINTS NORTH.
THE LLJ WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED IN THE 30-35 KTS RANGE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
BY 12Z WED AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GEM. WHATEVER FLOATS
IN FROM WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY SURVIVE PART OF THE
JOURNEY ACROSS THE LAKE BUT THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN. HI RES MODELS
INCLUDING THE NAMDNG AND WRF-ARW (EAST) REVEAL THIS TREND NICELY
WITH THE SIM Z PLOTS FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA FOR
THE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. PROBABLY MORE
SHOWERS THAN ANYTHING ELSE WITH ONLY ISOLATED TSRA MENTIONED AT
THIS TIME...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE DECAYING MORNING CONVECTION...FOCUS TURNS TOWARD THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD PRIOR TO FROPA FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD GRR AROUND 18Z OR
SO. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...THE TIMING OF FROPA MAY
AFFORD THE EASTERN CWA TIME TO DESTABILIZE FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS TO OCCUR...BUT LEADING HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY
DAMPEN INSTABILITY. THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY FEATURE SOME HAIL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

OUTSIDE OF THIS WEATHER...EXPECTING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE PRESENT THOUGH THEY SHOULDN`T IMPACT TEMPERATURES MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

THINK COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND WELL
BEYOND THAT ACTUALLY. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY DRY DAY.

THIS IS A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN
TROUGH...WHICH IT WOULD SEEM TO ME... SHOULD BE AROUND FOR ABOUT
AT LEAST TWO WEEKS. OVER TIME IT WILL TURN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TOO. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY.
EACH OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DEEPEN THE EASTERN TROUGH JUST A
LITTLE MORE. THEY ALSO WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND EACH COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
BEHIND IT.

TIMING EACH WAVE AT THIS POINT IS QUESTIONABLE AT BEST. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN ON EACH OF THE MODELS AS TO
WHICH SHORT WAVES RESULT IN SHOWERS AND WHICH DO NOT AND HOW MUCH
COOL AIR FOLLOWS EACH SHORTWAVE. IT MAY BE THAT NOT ONLY WILL WE
SEE A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES (MODELS SEEM TOO WARM TO ME
FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES) BUT A TREND TOWARD WETTER WEATHER TOO. I
COULD SEE RAIN FALLING NEARLY EVERY DAY OVER OUR CWA STARTING
FRIDAY. THESE PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL LAST WELL PAST THE FORECAST
TIME FRAME TOO. AT THIS POINT I DO NOT SEE ANY ONE SYSTEM GIVING
US A LARGE AMOUNT OF RAIN...JUST THAT EACH DAY THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS AROUND. BOTTOM LINE THINK COOLER WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS TO AVIATION
INTERESTS THROUGH 06Z WED. THE ONLY THING OF POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANCE
WILL BE ANOTHER CHC OF SOME FOG EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MAINLY BTL
AND KJXN. CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WHEN SOME FOG WAS
EXPERIENCED THERE. ALSO...KBTL IS ALREADY DOWN TO 7SM AS OF 0530Z.

AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SE WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL
RULE. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT KMKG IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THEN DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET TUE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MARINERS CAN EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT VEERING WEST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING MAY POSE A THREAT MAINLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND ARE WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...HOVING





000
FXUS63 KGRR 280534
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
134 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. WEAKENING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY CROSS
THE LAKE WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY IMPACTING THE LAKESHORE
REGION. SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN LOWER MI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN CENTERS ON THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE LAKESHORE...ANY RISK FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN CWA.
OVERALL...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW.

A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A SFC COLD
FRONT INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
RESIDES CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE U.P. AND POINTS NORTH.
THE LLJ WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED IN THE 30-35 KTS RANGE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
BY 12Z WED AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GEM. WHATEVER FLOATS
IN FROM WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY SURVIVE PART OF THE
JOURNEY ACROSS THE LAKE BUT THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN. HI RES MODELS
INCLUDING THE NAMDNG AND WRF-ARW (EAST) REVEAL THIS TREND NICELY
WITH THE SIM Z PLOTS FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA FOR
THE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. PROBABLY MORE
SHOWERS THAN ANYTHING ELSE WITH ONLY ISOLATED TSRA MENTIONED AT
THIS TIME...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE DECAYING MORNING CONVECTION...FOCUS TURNS TOWARD THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD PRIOR TO FROPA FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD GRR AROUND 18Z OR
SO. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...THE TIMING OF FROPA MAY
AFFORD THE EASTERN CWA TIME TO DESTABILIZE FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS TO OCCUR...BUT LEADING HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY
DAMPEN INSTABILITY. THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY FEATURE SOME HAIL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

OUTSIDE OF THIS WEATHER...EXPECTING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE PRESENT THOUGH THEY SHOULDN`T IMPACT TEMPERATURES MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

THINK COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND WELL
BEYOND THAT ACTUALLY. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY DRY DAY.

THIS IS A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN
TROUGH...WHICH IT WOULD SEEM TO ME... SHOULD BE AROUND FOR ABOUT
AT LEAST TWO WEEKS. OVER TIME IT WILL TURN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TOO. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY.
EACH OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DEEPEN THE EASTERN TROUGH JUST A
LITTLE MORE. THEY ALSO WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND EACH COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
BEHIND IT.

TIMING EACH WAVE AT THIS POINT IS QUESTIONABLE AT BEST. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN ON EACH OF THE MODELS AS TO
WHICH SHORT WAVES RESULT IN SHOWERS AND WHICH DO NOT AND HOW MUCH
COOL AIR FOLLOWS EACH SHORTWAVE. IT MAY BE THAT NOT ONLY WILL WE
SEE A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES (MODELS SEEM TOO WARM TO ME
FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES) BUT A TREND TOWARD WETTER WEATHER TOO. I
COULD SEE RAIN FALLING NEARLY EVERY DAY OVER OUR CWA STARTING
FRIDAY. THESE PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL LAST WELL PAST THE FORECAST
TIME FRAME TOO. AT THIS POINT I DO NOT SEE ANY ONE SYSTEM GIVING
US A LARGE AMOUNT OF RAIN...JUST THAT EACH DAY THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS AROUND. BOTTOM LINE THINK COOLER WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS TO AVIATION
INTERESTS THROUGH 06Z WED. THE ONLY THING OF POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANCE
WILL BE ANOTHER CHC OF SOME FOG EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MAINLY BTL
AND KJXN. CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WHEN SOME FOG WAS
EXPERIENCED THERE. ALSO...KBTL IS ALREADY DOWN TO 7SM AS OF 0530Z.

AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SE WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL
RULE. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT KMKG IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THEN DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET TUE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MARINERS CAN EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT VEERING WEST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING MAY POSE A THREAT MAINLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND ARE WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...HOVING





000
FXUS63 KGRR 280534
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
134 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. WEAKENING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY CROSS
THE LAKE WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY IMPACTING THE LAKESHORE
REGION. SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN LOWER MI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN CENTERS ON THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE LAKESHORE...ANY RISK FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN CWA.
OVERALL...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW.

A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A SFC COLD
FRONT INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
RESIDES CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE U.P. AND POINTS NORTH.
THE LLJ WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED IN THE 30-35 KTS RANGE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
BY 12Z WED AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GEM. WHATEVER FLOATS
IN FROM WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY SURVIVE PART OF THE
JOURNEY ACROSS THE LAKE BUT THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN. HI RES MODELS
INCLUDING THE NAMDNG AND WRF-ARW (EAST) REVEAL THIS TREND NICELY
WITH THE SIM Z PLOTS FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA FOR
THE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. PROBABLY MORE
SHOWERS THAN ANYTHING ELSE WITH ONLY ISOLATED TSRA MENTIONED AT
THIS TIME...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE DECAYING MORNING CONVECTION...FOCUS TURNS TOWARD THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD PRIOR TO FROPA FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD GRR AROUND 18Z OR
SO. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...THE TIMING OF FROPA MAY
AFFORD THE EASTERN CWA TIME TO DESTABILIZE FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS TO OCCUR...BUT LEADING HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY
DAMPEN INSTABILITY. THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY FEATURE SOME HAIL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

OUTSIDE OF THIS WEATHER...EXPECTING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE PRESENT THOUGH THEY SHOULDN`T IMPACT TEMPERATURES MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

THINK COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND WELL
BEYOND THAT ACTUALLY. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY DRY DAY.

THIS IS A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN
TROUGH...WHICH IT WOULD SEEM TO ME... SHOULD BE AROUND FOR ABOUT
AT LEAST TWO WEEKS. OVER TIME IT WILL TURN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TOO. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY.
EACH OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DEEPEN THE EASTERN TROUGH JUST A
LITTLE MORE. THEY ALSO WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND EACH COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
BEHIND IT.

TIMING EACH WAVE AT THIS POINT IS QUESTIONABLE AT BEST. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN ON EACH OF THE MODELS AS TO
WHICH SHORT WAVES RESULT IN SHOWERS AND WHICH DO NOT AND HOW MUCH
COOL AIR FOLLOWS EACH SHORTWAVE. IT MAY BE THAT NOT ONLY WILL WE
SEE A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES (MODELS SEEM TOO WARM TO ME
FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES) BUT A TREND TOWARD WETTER WEATHER TOO. I
COULD SEE RAIN FALLING NEARLY EVERY DAY OVER OUR CWA STARTING
FRIDAY. THESE PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL LAST WELL PAST THE FORECAST
TIME FRAME TOO. AT THIS POINT I DO NOT SEE ANY ONE SYSTEM GIVING
US A LARGE AMOUNT OF RAIN...JUST THAT EACH DAY THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS AROUND. BOTTOM LINE THINK COOLER WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS TO AVIATION
INTERESTS THROUGH 06Z WED. THE ONLY THING OF POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANCE
WILL BE ANOTHER CHC OF SOME FOG EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MAINLY BTL
AND KJXN. CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WHEN SOME FOG WAS
EXPERIENCED THERE. ALSO...KBTL IS ALREADY DOWN TO 7SM AS OF 0530Z.

AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SE WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL
RULE. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT KMKG IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THEN DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET TUE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MARINERS CAN EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT VEERING WEST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING MAY POSE A THREAT MAINLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND ARE WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...HOVING




000
FXUS63 KGRR 272335
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
735 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. WEAKENING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY CROSS
THE LAKE WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY IMPACTING THE LAKESHORE
REGION. SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN LOWER MI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN CENTERS ON THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE LAKESHORE...ANY RISK FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN CWA.
OVERALL...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW.

A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A SFC COLD
FRONT INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
RESIDES CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE U.P. AND POINTS NORTH.
THE LLJ WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED IN THE 30-35 KTS RANGE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
BY 12Z WED AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GEM. WHATEVER FLOATS
IN FROM WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY SURVIVE PART OF THE
JOURNEY ACROSS THE LAKE BUT THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN. HI RES MODELS
INCLUDING THE NAMDNG AND WRF-ARW (EAST) REVEAL THIS TREND NICELY
WITH THE SIM Z PLOTS FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA FOR
THE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. PROBABLY MORE
SHOWERS THAN ANYTHING ELSE WITH ONLY ISOLATED TSRA MENTIONED AT
THIS TIME...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE DECAYING MORNING CONVECTION...FOCUS TURNS TOWARD THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD PRIOR TO FROPA FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD GRR AROUND 18Z OR
SO. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...THE TIMING OF FROPA MAY
AFFORD THE EASTERN CWA TIME TO DESTABILIZE FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS TO OCCUR...BUT LEADING HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY
DAMPEN INSTABILITY. THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY FEATURE SOME HAIL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

OUTSIDE OF THIS WEATHER...EXPECTING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE PRESENT THOUGH THEY SHOULDN`T IMPACT TEMPERATURES MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

THINK COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND WELL
BEYOND THAT ACTUALLY. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY DRY DAY.

THIS IS A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN
TROUGH...WHICH IT WOULD SEEM TO ME... SHOULD BE AROUND FOR ABOUT
AT LEAST TWO WEEKS. OVER TIME IT WILL TURN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TOO. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY.
EACH OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DEEPEN THE EASTERN TROUGH JUST A
LITTLE MORE. THEY ALSO WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND EACH COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
BEHIND IT.

TIMING EACH WAVE AT THIS POINT IS QUESTIONABLE AT BEST. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN ON EACH OF THE MODELS AS TO
WHICH SHORTHWAVES RESULT IN SHOWERS AND WHICH DO NOT AND HOW MUCH
COOL AIR FOLLOWS EACH SHORTWAVE. IT MAY BE THAT NOT ONLY WILL WE
SEE A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES (MODELS SEEM TOO WARM TO
ME FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES) BUT A TREND TOWARD WETTER WEATHER
TOO. I COULD SEE RAIN FALLING NEARLY EVERY DAY OVER OUR CWA
STARTING FRIDAY. THESE PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL LAST WELL PAST THE
FORECAST TIME FRAME TOO. AT THIS POINT I DO NOT SEE ANY ONE SYSTEM
GIVING US A LARGE AMOUNT OF RAIN...JUST THAT EACH DAY THERE WILL
BE SHOWERS AROUND. BOTTOM LINE THINK COOLER WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY
EVENING. ONLY SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO 5-8
KTS AFTER 14Z TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MARINERS CAN EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT VEERING WEST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING MAY POSE A THREAT MAINLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND ARE WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...HOVING





000
FXUS63 KGRR 271925
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. WEAKENING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY CROSS
THE LAKE WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY IMPACTING THE LAKESHORE
REGION. SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN LOWER MI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN CENTERS ON THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE LAKESHORE...ANY RISK FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN CWA.
OVERALL...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW.

A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A SFC COLD
FRONT INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
RESIDES CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE U.P. AND POINTS NORTH.
THE LLJ WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED IN THE 30-35 KTS RANGE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
BY 12Z WED AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GEM. WHATEVER FLOATS
IN FROM WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY SURVIVE PART OF THE
JOURNEY ACROSS THE LAKE BUT THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN. HI RES MODELS
INCLUDING THE NAMDNG AND WRF-ARW (EAST) REVEAL THIS TREND NICELY
WITH THE SIM Z PLOTS FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA FOR
THE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. PROBABLY MORE
SHOWERS THAN ANYTHING ELSE WITH ONLY ISOLATED TSRA MENTIONED AT
THIS TIME...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE DECAYING MORNING CONVECTION...FOCUS TURNS TOWARD THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD PRIOR TO FROPA FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD GRR AROUND 18Z OR
SO. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...THE TIMING OF FROPA MAY
AFFORD THE EASTERN CWA TIME TO DESTABILIZE FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS TO OCCUR...BUT LEADING HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY
DAMPEN INSTABILITY. THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY FEATURE SOME HAIL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

OUTSIDE OF THIS WEATHER...EXPECTING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE PRESENT THOUGH THEY SHOULDN`T IMPACT TEMPERATURES MUCH.

&&


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

THINK COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND WELL
BEYOND THAT ACTUALLY. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY DRY DAY.

THIS IS A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN
TROUGH...WHICH IT WOULD SEEM TO ME... SHOULD BE AROUND FOR ABOUT
AT LEAST TWO WEEKS. OVER TIME IT WILL TURN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TOO. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY.
EACH OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DEEPEN THE EASTERN TROUGH JUST A
LITTLE MORE. THEY ALSO WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND EACH COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
BEHIND IT.

TIMING EACH WAVE AT THIS POINT IS QUESTIONABLE AT BEST. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN ON EACH OF THE MODELS AS TO
WHICH SHORTHWAVES RESULT IN SHOWERS AND WHICH DO NOT AND HOW MUCH
COOL AIR FOLLOWS EACH SHORTWAVE. IT MAY BE THAT NOT ONLY WILL WE
SEE A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES (MODELS SEEM TOO WARM TO
ME FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES) BUT A TREND TOWARD WETTER WEATHER
TOO. I COULD SEE RAIN FALLING NEARLY EVERY DAY OVER OUR CWA
STARTING FRIDAY. THESE PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL LAST WELL PAST THE
FORECAST TIME FRAME TOO. AT THIS POINT I DO NOT SEE ANY ONE SYSTEM
GIVING US A LARGE AMOUNT OF RAIN...JUST THAT EACH DAY THERE WILL
BE SHOWERS AROUND. BOTTOM LINE THINK COOLER WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 10K.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MARINERS CAN EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT VEERING WEST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING MAY POSE A THREAT MAINLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND ARE WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM KS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...HOVING




000
FXUS63 KGRR 271925
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. WEAKENING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY CROSS
THE LAKE WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY IMPACTING THE LAKESHORE
REGION. SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN LOWER MI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN CENTERS ON THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE LAKESHORE...ANY RISK FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN CWA.
OVERALL...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW.

A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A SFC COLD
FRONT INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
RESIDES CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE U.P. AND POINTS NORTH.
THE LLJ WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED IN THE 30-35 KTS RANGE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
BY 12Z WED AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GEM. WHATEVER FLOATS
IN FROM WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY SURVIVE PART OF THE
JOURNEY ACROSS THE LAKE BUT THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN. HI RES MODELS
INCLUDING THE NAMDNG AND WRF-ARW (EAST) REVEAL THIS TREND NICELY
WITH THE SIM Z PLOTS FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA FOR
THE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. PROBABLY MORE
SHOWERS THAN ANYTHING ELSE WITH ONLY ISOLATED TSRA MENTIONED AT
THIS TIME...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE DECAYING MORNING CONVECTION...FOCUS TURNS TOWARD THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD PRIOR TO FROPA FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD GRR AROUND 18Z OR
SO. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...THE TIMING OF FROPA MAY
AFFORD THE EASTERN CWA TIME TO DESTABILIZE FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS TO OCCUR...BUT LEADING HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY
DAMPEN INSTABILITY. THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY FEATURE SOME HAIL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

OUTSIDE OF THIS WEATHER...EXPECTING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE PRESENT THOUGH THEY SHOULDN`T IMPACT TEMPERATURES MUCH.

&&


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

THINK COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND WELL
BEYOND THAT ACTUALLY. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY DRY DAY.

THIS IS A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN
TROUGH...WHICH IT WOULD SEEM TO ME... SHOULD BE AROUND FOR ABOUT
AT LEAST TWO WEEKS. OVER TIME IT WILL TURN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TOO. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY.
EACH OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DEEPEN THE EASTERN TROUGH JUST A
LITTLE MORE. THEY ALSO WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND EACH COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
BEHIND IT.

TIMING EACH WAVE AT THIS POINT IS QUESTIONABLE AT BEST. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN ON EACH OF THE MODELS AS TO
WHICH SHORTHWAVES RESULT IN SHOWERS AND WHICH DO NOT AND HOW MUCH
COOL AIR FOLLOWS EACH SHORTWAVE. IT MAY BE THAT NOT ONLY WILL WE
SEE A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES (MODELS SEEM TOO WARM TO
ME FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES) BUT A TREND TOWARD WETTER WEATHER
TOO. I COULD SEE RAIN FALLING NEARLY EVERY DAY OVER OUR CWA
STARTING FRIDAY. THESE PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL LAST WELL PAST THE
FORECAST TIME FRAME TOO. AT THIS POINT I DO NOT SEE ANY ONE SYSTEM
GIVING US A LARGE AMOUNT OF RAIN...JUST THAT EACH DAY THERE WILL
BE SHOWERS AROUND. BOTTOM LINE THINK COOLER WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 10K.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MARINERS CAN EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT VEERING WEST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING MAY POSE A THREAT MAINLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND ARE WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM KS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...HOVING





000
FXUS63 KGRR 271749
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
149 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING TO AROUND 90 BOTH TODAY AND ON TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. IT WILL TURN A
BIT COOLER AND DRIER FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES BACK INTO
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
COMING THROUGH DURING THE DIURNAL MINIMUM OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING.
EXPECTING SOME FADING CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA
OVERNIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH AROUND 500 J/KG PROGD BY THE GFS. THE LEFT OVER MORNING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
TEMPER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE GFS DOES INDICATE
AIRMASS RECOVERY THOUGH WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES RISING TO IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THINK THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASONS.

NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT
IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INSTABILITY IS GOING
TO BE QUESTIONABLE. BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR LAGS THE FRONT...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED STORMS. SCATTERED SINGLE CELL AND MULTI-CELL
STORMS MOST LIKELY. THE WAY WE COULD SEE STRONG STORMS IS IF THE
PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT IS LESS THAN PROGD AND WE CAN DESTABILIZE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AND
WE WILL STILL HAVE WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE.

STILL LOOKING AT HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY. MOST LIKELY
AROUND 90 IN MOST AREAS TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES WHERE A LAKE BREEZE PUSHES IN THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY I AM
STILL A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT UPSTREAM CLOUDS PRESSING IN. AROUND 90
SEEMS FAIR FOR TUESDAY AS WELL THOUGH WITH WARM 850MB TEMPS IN THE
+18 T0 +19 C RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. THE END OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO
BECOME A BIT UNSETTLED WITH CHCS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVING FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

WE CONTINUE TO THINK THAT THE RAIN CHCS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HAVING THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z THU. WE DO
SEE GENERAL TROUGHING MOVE IN AT THE UPPER LEVELS...BUT THE JET CORE
REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWFA SO ADDITIONAL RAIN LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY. WE

WILL SEE THE DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD WEATHER LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING LOWER MICHIGAN UNDER NW FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. SHORT WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND DAMPEN COMING OVER THE
RIDGE. THE GOOD MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN LOCKED UP SOUTH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

WE WILL SEE THE CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE A BIT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST RETROGRADES WEST AND FLATTENS A
BIT...RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA. WE WILL SEE
SHORT WAVES SURVIVE A LITTLE BETTER AND AFFECT THE AREA. THESE
THINGS COMBINED WITH SOME MOIST ADVECTION COMING FROM THE GULF WILL
HELP TO INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 10K.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VERY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SPEEDS MAY
BRIEFLY TOUCH THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. WAVES WILL BE A FOOT OR LESS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT ON TUESDAY NOW AS WELL AS THE GRADIENT
REALLY DOESNT BUILD IN UNTIL AFTER DARK. TWO FOOTERS OR
LESS ON TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PUSH WAVES
INTO THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE IT APPEARS. WINDS WILL COME UP OUT OF THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WAVES THAT MAY BUILD
INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND ARE WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM KS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 271749
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
149 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING TO AROUND 90 BOTH TODAY AND ON TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. IT WILL TURN A
BIT COOLER AND DRIER FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES BACK INTO
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
COMING THROUGH DURING THE DIURNAL MINIMUM OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING.
EXPECTING SOME FADING CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA
OVERNIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH AROUND 500 J/KG PROGD BY THE GFS. THE LEFT OVER MORNING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
TEMPER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE GFS DOES INDICATE
AIRMASS RECOVERY THOUGH WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES RISING TO IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THINK THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASONS.

NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT
IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INSTABILITY IS GOING
TO BE QUESTIONABLE. BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR LAGS THE FRONT...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED STORMS. SCATTERED SINGLE CELL AND MULTI-CELL
STORMS MOST LIKELY. THE WAY WE COULD SEE STRONG STORMS IS IF THE
PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT IS LESS THAN PROGD AND WE CAN DESTABILIZE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AND
WE WILL STILL HAVE WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE.

STILL LOOKING AT HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY. MOST LIKELY
AROUND 90 IN MOST AREAS TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES WHERE A LAKE BREEZE PUSHES IN THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY I AM
STILL A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT UPSTREAM CLOUDS PRESSING IN. AROUND 90
SEEMS FAIR FOR TUESDAY AS WELL THOUGH WITH WARM 850MB TEMPS IN THE
+18 T0 +19 C RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. THE END OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO
BECOME A BIT UNSETTLED WITH CHCS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVING FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

WE CONTINUE TO THINK THAT THE RAIN CHCS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HAVING THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z THU. WE DO
SEE GENERAL TROUGHING MOVE IN AT THE UPPER LEVELS...BUT THE JET CORE
REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWFA SO ADDITIONAL RAIN LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY. WE

WILL SEE THE DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD WEATHER LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING LOWER MICHIGAN UNDER NW FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. SHORT WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND DAMPEN COMING OVER THE
RIDGE. THE GOOD MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN LOCKED UP SOUTH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

WE WILL SEE THE CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE A BIT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST RETROGRADES WEST AND FLATTENS A
BIT...RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA. WE WILL SEE
SHORT WAVES SURVIVE A LITTLE BETTER AND AFFECT THE AREA. THESE
THINGS COMBINED WITH SOME MOIST ADVECTION COMING FROM THE GULF WILL
HELP TO INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 10K.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VERY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SPEEDS MAY
BRIEFLY TOUCH THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. WAVES WILL BE A FOOT OR LESS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT ON TUESDAY NOW AS WELL AS THE GRADIENT
REALLY DOESNT BUILD IN UNTIL AFTER DARK. TWO FOOTERS OR
LESS ON TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PUSH WAVES
INTO THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE IT APPEARS. WINDS WILL COME UP OUT OF THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WAVES THAT MAY BUILD
INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND ARE WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM KS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 271550
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1150 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING TO AROUND 90 BOTH TODAY AND ON TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. IT WILL TURN A
BIT COOLER AND DRIER FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES BACK INTO
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
COMING THROUGH DURING THE DIURNAL MINIMUM OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING.
EXPECTING SOME FADING CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA
OVERNIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH AROUND 500 J/KG PROGD BY THE GFS. THE LEFT OVER MORNING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
TEMPER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE GFS DOES INDICATE
AIRMASS RECOVERY THOUGH WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES RISING TO IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THINK THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASONS.

NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT
IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INSTABILITY IS GOING
TO BE QUESTIONABLE. BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR LAGS THE FRONT...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED STORMS. SCATTERED SINGLE CELL AND MULTI-CELL
STORMS MOST LIKELY. THE WAY WE COULD SEE STRONG STORMS IS IF THE
PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT IS LESS THAN PROGD AND WE CAN DESTABILIZE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AND
WE WILL STILL HAVE WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE.

STILL LOOKING AT HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY. MOST LIKELY
AROUND 90 IN MOST AREAS TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES WHERE A LAKE BREEZE PUSHES IN THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY I AM
STILL A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT UPSTREAM CLOUDS PRESSING IN. AROUND 90
SEEMS FAIR FOR TUESDAY AS WELL THOUGH WITH WARM 850MB TEMPS IN THE
+18 T0 +19 C RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. THE END OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO
BECOME A BIT UNSETTLED WITH CHCS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVING FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

WE CONTINUE TO THINK THAT THE RAIN CHCS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HAVING THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z THU. WE DO
SEE GENERAL TROUGHING MOVE IN AT THE UPPER LEVELS...BUT THE JET CORE
REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWFA SO ADDITIONAL RAIN LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY. WE

WILL SEE THE DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD WEATHER LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING LOWER MICHIGAN UNDER NW FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. SHORT WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND DAMPEN COMING OVER THE
RIDGE. THE GOOD MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN LOCKED UP SOUTH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

WE WILL SEE THE CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE A BIT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST RETROGRADES WEST AND FLATTENS A
BIT...RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA. WE WILL SEE
SHORT WAVES SURVIVE A LITTLE BETTER AND AFFECT THE AREA. THESE
THINGS COMBINED WITH SOME MOIST ADVECTION COMING FROM THE GULF WILL
HELP TO INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 10K.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VERY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SPEEDS MAY
BRIEFLY TOUCH THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. WAVES WILL BE A FOOT OR LESS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT ON TUESDAY NOW AS WELL AS THE GRADIENT
REALLY DOESNT BUILD IN UNTIL AFTER DARK. TWO FOOTERS OR
LESS ON TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PUSH WAVES
INTO THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE IT APPEARS. WINDS WILL COME UP OUT OF THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WAVES THAT MAY BUILD
INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HYDRO WORLD CONTINUES TO BE UNEVENTFUL WITH NO CONCERNS UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE MID-WEEK EVENT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER RAINFALL...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE WHEN
THE TIME COMES. STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE RUNNING WELL BELOW ANY
PRODUCT CRITERIA AND WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE WHAT IS FORECAST.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM KS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 271550
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1150 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING TO AROUND 90 BOTH TODAY AND ON TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. IT WILL TURN A
BIT COOLER AND DRIER FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES BACK INTO
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
COMING THROUGH DURING THE DIURNAL MINIMUM OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING.
EXPECTING SOME FADING CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA
OVERNIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH AROUND 500 J/KG PROGD BY THE GFS. THE LEFT OVER MORNING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
TEMPER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE GFS DOES INDICATE
AIRMASS RECOVERY THOUGH WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES RISING TO IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THINK THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASONS.

NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT
IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INSTABILITY IS GOING
TO BE QUESTIONABLE. BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR LAGS THE FRONT...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED STORMS. SCATTERED SINGLE CELL AND MULTI-CELL
STORMS MOST LIKELY. THE WAY WE COULD SEE STRONG STORMS IS IF THE
PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT IS LESS THAN PROGD AND WE CAN DESTABILIZE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AND
WE WILL STILL HAVE WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE.

STILL LOOKING AT HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY. MOST LIKELY
AROUND 90 IN MOST AREAS TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES WHERE A LAKE BREEZE PUSHES IN THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY I AM
STILL A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT UPSTREAM CLOUDS PRESSING IN. AROUND 90
SEEMS FAIR FOR TUESDAY AS WELL THOUGH WITH WARM 850MB TEMPS IN THE
+18 T0 +19 C RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. THE END OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO
BECOME A BIT UNSETTLED WITH CHCS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVING FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

WE CONTINUE TO THINK THAT THE RAIN CHCS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HAVING THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z THU. WE DO
SEE GENERAL TROUGHING MOVE IN AT THE UPPER LEVELS...BUT THE JET CORE
REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWFA SO ADDITIONAL RAIN LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY. WE

WILL SEE THE DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD WEATHER LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING LOWER MICHIGAN UNDER NW FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. SHORT WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND DAMPEN COMING OVER THE
RIDGE. THE GOOD MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN LOCKED UP SOUTH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

WE WILL SEE THE CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE A BIT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST RETROGRADES WEST AND FLATTENS A
BIT...RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA. WE WILL SEE
SHORT WAVES SURVIVE A LITTLE BETTER AND AFFECT THE AREA. THESE
THINGS COMBINED WITH SOME MOIST ADVECTION COMING FROM THE GULF WILL
HELP TO INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 10K.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VERY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SPEEDS MAY
BRIEFLY TOUCH THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. WAVES WILL BE A FOOT OR LESS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT ON TUESDAY NOW AS WELL AS THE GRADIENT
REALLY DOESNT BUILD IN UNTIL AFTER DARK. TWO FOOTERS OR
LESS ON TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PUSH WAVES
INTO THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE IT APPEARS. WINDS WILL COME UP OUT OF THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WAVES THAT MAY BUILD
INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HYDRO WORLD CONTINUES TO BE UNEVENTFUL WITH NO CONCERNS UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE MID-WEEK EVENT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER RAINFALL...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE WHEN
THE TIME COMES. STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE RUNNING WELL BELOW ANY
PRODUCT CRITERIA AND WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE WHAT IS FORECAST.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM KS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE




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