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000
FXUS63 KGRR 190534
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1234 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SUN ON
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WARM UP
INTO THE LOWER 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...WITH MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.  RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A PERIOD OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE ABOUT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

WE HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING AS THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE PERSISTS...BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING.
LATEST DATA INDICATES THE TROUGH NOW NEAR MASON SHOULD MOVE OUT
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 08-09Z. THIS TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD BE THE END OF
THE WORST FREEZING DRIZZLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW OUT FOR THE COUNTIES MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. REPORTS STARTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE
ADVISORY COUNTIES THAT ROADS WERE BECOMING QUITE SLICK AND
NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS HAD OCCURRED RECENTLY. WEST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...PCPN HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE WITHOUT ANY ISSUES.

SFC TROUGH HAS MOVED TO A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH OF HOLLAND...TO
JUST NORTH OF MASON...AND THEN TO DETROIT. DGZ LARGELY REMAINS
UNSATURATED AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. BEHIND THE TROUGH...WINDS BECOME MORE
NRLY AND PCPN PRETTY MUCH ENDS AT THAT POINT. SFC TROUGH SHOULD BE
EXITING THE CWFA AROUND 06Z OR SO WHICH SHOULD END THE THREAT OF
THE GLAZE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WE WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
FOR THE SE PORTION OF THE CWFA. THE COUNTIES THAT WILL BE IN THE
ADVISORY WILL BE BARRY... EATON...INGHAM...CALHOUN...AND JACKSON
COUNTIES. WE ARE GETTING REPORTS THAT THERE HAVE MANY ACCIDENTS
DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING THERE. MORE DETAILS WILL FOLLOW
SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ROUGHLY ALONG A HOLLAND TO
GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING LINE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...BUT EXPECT A SLOW CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
SHOWS THE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH TO I-94 BY 10 PM. THERE IS A
NARROW WINDOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE SPEED CONVERGENCE OF WINDS
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SUPPLEMENT BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE. LIGHT SNOW
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DETAILS OF THE STORM
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION JUST PRIOR TO CHRISTMAS AND
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...NOW
TAKING IT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT.  THEY ARE ALSO
HINTING AT AN EAST COAST LOW WHICH MAY TRANSFER ENERGY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LOW.  BOTTOM LINE...THIS APPEARS TO BE A SLOW MOVING
STORM AND A FEW WOBBLES EITHER WAY WILL BE MAKE A DIFFERENCE ON
TIMING PCPN TYPE.

THE STORM BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
FAVOR A QUICKER ARRIVAL TO THE COLDER AIR.  BEST BET RIGHT NOW IS
THAT THIS MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT.  SO EXPECTING A WET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN AND A SWITCH TO SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT.  AND EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE STORM/S ENERGY MAY SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST...WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING
RIGHT INTO THE THURSDAY.  H8 TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND -8C BY CHRISTMAS
DAY SO EXPECT LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SNOW A BIT.  ALL
IN ALL IT APPEARS A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF SW MI.

UNTIL THEN...I ADDED POPS TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96.  MODELS SHOW A SHARPENING WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF IT.  WOULD
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER AN INCH.  THEN WARMER AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN THE PCPN SHOULD SWITCH TO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH OF
KJXN...KBTL AND THE KAZO REGION THROUGH 08Z. THUS IMPACTS ARE
STILL EXPECTED.  UNTIL THEN SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES.
GENERALLY MVFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TO START THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
PATCHY IFR WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 08Z MAINLY FOR KJXN.

ICING WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL ISSUE RIGHT INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND STAY LOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ065>067-073-074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...EBW/JK
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...TJT








000
FXUS63 KGRR 190534
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1234 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SUN ON
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WARM UP
INTO THE LOWER 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...WITH MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.  RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A PERIOD OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE ABOUT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

WE HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING AS THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE PERSISTS...BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING.
LATEST DATA INDICATES THE TROUGH NOW NEAR MASON SHOULD MOVE OUT
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 08-09Z. THIS TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD BE THE END OF
THE WORST FREEZING DRIZZLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW OUT FOR THE COUNTIES MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. REPORTS STARTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE
ADVISORY COUNTIES THAT ROADS WERE BECOMING QUITE SLICK AND
NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS HAD OCCURRED RECENTLY. WEST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...PCPN HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE WITHOUT ANY ISSUES.

SFC TROUGH HAS MOVED TO A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH OF HOLLAND...TO
JUST NORTH OF MASON...AND THEN TO DETROIT. DGZ LARGELY REMAINS
UNSATURATED AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. BEHIND THE TROUGH...WINDS BECOME MORE
NRLY AND PCPN PRETTY MUCH ENDS AT THAT POINT. SFC TROUGH SHOULD BE
EXITING THE CWFA AROUND 06Z OR SO WHICH SHOULD END THE THREAT OF
THE GLAZE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WE WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
FOR THE SE PORTION OF THE CWFA. THE COUNTIES THAT WILL BE IN THE
ADVISORY WILL BE BARRY... EATON...INGHAM...CALHOUN...AND JACKSON
COUNTIES. WE ARE GETTING REPORTS THAT THERE HAVE MANY ACCIDENTS
DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING THERE. MORE DETAILS WILL FOLLOW
SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ROUGHLY ALONG A HOLLAND TO
GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING LINE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...BUT EXPECT A SLOW CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
SHOWS THE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH TO I-94 BY 10 PM. THERE IS A
NARROW WINDOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE SPEED CONVERGENCE OF WINDS
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SUPPLEMENT BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE. LIGHT SNOW
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DETAILS OF THE STORM
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION JUST PRIOR TO CHRISTMAS AND
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...NOW
TAKING IT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT.  THEY ARE ALSO
HINTING AT AN EAST COAST LOW WHICH MAY TRANSFER ENERGY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LOW.  BOTTOM LINE...THIS APPEARS TO BE A SLOW MOVING
STORM AND A FEW WOBBLES EITHER WAY WILL BE MAKE A DIFFERENCE ON
TIMING PCPN TYPE.

THE STORM BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
FAVOR A QUICKER ARRIVAL TO THE COLDER AIR.  BEST BET RIGHT NOW IS
THAT THIS MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT.  SO EXPECTING A WET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN AND A SWITCH TO SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT.  AND EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE STORM/S ENERGY MAY SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST...WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING
RIGHT INTO THE THURSDAY.  H8 TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND -8C BY CHRISTMAS
DAY SO EXPECT LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SNOW A BIT.  ALL
IN ALL IT APPEARS A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF SW MI.

UNTIL THEN...I ADDED POPS TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96.  MODELS SHOW A SHARPENING WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF IT.  WOULD
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER AN INCH.  THEN WARMER AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN THE PCPN SHOULD SWITCH TO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH OF
KJXN...KBTL AND THE KAZO REGION THROUGH 08Z. THUS IMPACTS ARE
STILL EXPECTED.  UNTIL THEN SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES.
GENERALLY MVFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TO START THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
PATCHY IFR WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 08Z MAINLY FOR KJXN.

ICING WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL ISSUE RIGHT INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND STAY LOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ065>067-073-074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...EBW/JK
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...TJT







000
FXUS63 KGRR 190457
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1157 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SUN ON
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WARM UP
INTO THE LOWER 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...WITH MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.  RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A PERIOD OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE ABOUT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW OUT FOR THE COUNTIES MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. REPORTS STARTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE
ADVISORY COUNTIES THAT ROADS WERE BECOMING QUITE SLICK AND
NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS HAD OCCURRED RECENTLY. WEST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...PCPN HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE WITHOUT ANY ISSUES.

SFC TROUGH HAS MOVED TO A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH OF HOLLAND...TO
JUST NORTH OF MASON...AND THEN TO DETROIT. DGZ LARGELY REMAINS
UNSATURATED AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. BEHIND THE TROUGH...WINDS BECOME MORE
NRLY AND PCPN PRETTY MUCH ENDS AT THAT POINT. SFC TROUGH SHOULD BE
EXITING THE CWFA AROUND 06Z OR SO WHICH SHOULD END THE THREAT OF
THE GLAZE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WE WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
FOR THE SE PORTION OF THE CWFA. THE COUNTIES THAT WILL BE IN THE
ADVISORY WILL BE BARRY... EATON...INGHAM...CALHOUN...AND JACKSON
COUNTIES. WE ARE GETTING REPORTS THAT THERE HAVE MANY ACCIDENTS
DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING THERE. MORE DETAILS WILL FOLLOW
SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ROUGHLY ALONG A HOLLAND TO
GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING LINE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...BUT EXPECT A SLOW CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
SHOWS THE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH TO I-94 BY 10 PM. THERE IS A
NARROW WINDOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE SPEED CONVERGENCE OF WINDS
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SUPPLEMENT BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE. LIGHT SNOW
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DETAILS OF THE STORM
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION JUST PRIOR TO CHRISTMAS AND
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...NOW
TAKING IT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT.  THEY ARE ALSO
HINTING AT AN EAST COAST LOW WHICH MAY TRANSFER ENERGY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LOW.  BOTTOM LINE...THIS APPEARS TO BE A SLOW MOVING
STORM AND A FEW WOBBLES EITHER WAY WILL BE MAKE A DIFFERENCE ON
TIMING PCPN TYPE.

THE STORM BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
FAVOR A QUICKER ARRIVAL TO THE COLDER AIR.  BEST BET RIGHT NOW IS
THAT THIS MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT.  SO EXPECTING A WET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN AND A SWITCH TO SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT.  AND EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE STORM/S ENERGY MAY SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST...WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING
RIGHT INTO THE THURSDAY.  H8 TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND -8C BY CHRISTMAS
DAY SO EXPECT LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SNOW A BIT.  ALL
IN ALL IT APPEARS A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF SW MI.

UNTIL THEN...I ADDED POPS TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96.  MODELS SHOW A SHARPENING WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF IT.  WOULD
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER AN INCH.  THEN WARMER AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN THE PCPN SHOULD SWITCH TO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH OF
KJXN...KBTL AND THE KAZO REGION THROUGH 08Z. THUS IMPACTS ARE
STILL EXPECTED.  UNTIL THEN SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES.
GENERALLY MVFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TO START THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
PATCHY IFR WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 08Z MAINLY FOR KJXN.

ICING WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL ISSUE RIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND STAY LOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ065>067-073-
     074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...EBW/JK
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...TJT







000
FXUS63 KGRR 190457
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1157 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SUN ON
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WARM UP
INTO THE LOWER 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...WITH MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.  RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A PERIOD OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE ABOUT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW OUT FOR THE COUNTIES MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. REPORTS STARTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE
ADVISORY COUNTIES THAT ROADS WERE BECOMING QUITE SLICK AND
NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS HAD OCCURRED RECENTLY. WEST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...PCPN HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE WITHOUT ANY ISSUES.

SFC TROUGH HAS MOVED TO A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH OF HOLLAND...TO
JUST NORTH OF MASON...AND THEN TO DETROIT. DGZ LARGELY REMAINS
UNSATURATED AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. BEHIND THE TROUGH...WINDS BECOME MORE
NRLY AND PCPN PRETTY MUCH ENDS AT THAT POINT. SFC TROUGH SHOULD BE
EXITING THE CWFA AROUND 06Z OR SO WHICH SHOULD END THE THREAT OF
THE GLAZE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WE WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
FOR THE SE PORTION OF THE CWFA. THE COUNTIES THAT WILL BE IN THE
ADVISORY WILL BE BARRY... EATON...INGHAM...CALHOUN...AND JACKSON
COUNTIES. WE ARE GETTING REPORTS THAT THERE HAVE MANY ACCIDENTS
DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING THERE. MORE DETAILS WILL FOLLOW
SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ROUGHLY ALONG A HOLLAND TO
GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING LINE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...BUT EXPECT A SLOW CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
SHOWS THE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH TO I-94 BY 10 PM. THERE IS A
NARROW WINDOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE SPEED CONVERGENCE OF WINDS
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SUPPLEMENT BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE. LIGHT SNOW
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DETAILS OF THE STORM
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION JUST PRIOR TO CHRISTMAS AND
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...NOW
TAKING IT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT.  THEY ARE ALSO
HINTING AT AN EAST COAST LOW WHICH MAY TRANSFER ENERGY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LOW.  BOTTOM LINE...THIS APPEARS TO BE A SLOW MOVING
STORM AND A FEW WOBBLES EITHER WAY WILL BE MAKE A DIFFERENCE ON
TIMING PCPN TYPE.

THE STORM BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
FAVOR A QUICKER ARRIVAL TO THE COLDER AIR.  BEST BET RIGHT NOW IS
THAT THIS MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT.  SO EXPECTING A WET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN AND A SWITCH TO SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT.  AND EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE STORM/S ENERGY MAY SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST...WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING
RIGHT INTO THE THURSDAY.  H8 TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND -8C BY CHRISTMAS
DAY SO EXPECT LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SNOW A BIT.  ALL
IN ALL IT APPEARS A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF SW MI.

UNTIL THEN...I ADDED POPS TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96.  MODELS SHOW A SHARPENING WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF IT.  WOULD
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER AN INCH.  THEN WARMER AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN THE PCPN SHOULD SWITCH TO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH OF
KJXN...KBTL AND THE KAZO REGION THROUGH 08Z. THUS IMPACTS ARE
STILL EXPECTED.  UNTIL THEN SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES.
GENERALLY MVFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TO START THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
PATCHY IFR WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 08Z MAINLY FOR KJXN.

ICING WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL ISSUE RIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND STAY LOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ065>067-073-
     074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...EBW/JK
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...TJT








000
FXUS63 KGRR 190240
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
940 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SUN ON
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WARM UP
INTO THE LOWER 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...WITH MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.  RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A PERIOD OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE ABOUT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW OUT FOR THE COUNTIES MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. REPORTS STARTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE
ADVISORY COUNTIES THAT ROADS WERE BECOMING QUITE SLICK AND
NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS HAD OCCURRED RECENTLY. WEST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...PCPN HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE WITHOUT ANY ISSUES.

SFC TROUGH HAS MOVED TO A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH OF HOLLAND...TO
JUST NORTH OF MASON...AND THEN TO DETROIT. DGZ LARGELY REMAINS
UNSATURATED AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. BEHIND THE TROUGH...WINDS BECOME MORE
NRLY AND PCPN PRETTY MUCH ENDS AT THAT POINT. SFC TROUGH SHOULD BE
EXITING THE CWFA AROUND 06Z OR SO WHICH SHOULD END THE THREAT OF
THE GLAZE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WE WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
FOR THE SE PORTION OF THE CWFA. THE COUNTIES THAT WILL BE IN THE
ADVISORY WILL BE BARRY... EATON...INGHAM...CALHOUN...AND JACKSON
COUNTIES. WE ARE GETTING REPORTS THAT THERE HAVE MANY ACCIDENTS
DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING THERE. MORE DETAILS WILL FOLLOW
SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ROUGHLY ALONG A HOLLAND TO
GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING LINE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...BUT EXPECT A SLOW CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
SHOWS THE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH TO I-94 BY 10 PM. THERE IS A
NARROW WINDOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE SPEED CONVERGENCE OF WINDS
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SUPPLEMENT BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE. LIGHT SNOW
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DETAILS OF THE STORM
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION JUST PRIOR TO CHRISTMAS AND
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...NOW
TAKING IT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT.  THEY ARE ALSO
HINTING AT AN EAST COAST LOW WHICH MAY TRANSFER ENERGY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LOW.  BOTTOM LINE...THIS APPEARS TO BE A SLOW MOVING
STORM AND A FEW WOBBLES EITHER WAY WILL BE MAKE A DIFFERENCE ON
TIMING PCPN TYPE.

THE STORM BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
FAVOR A QUICKER ARRIVAL TO THE COLDER AIR.  BEST BET RIGHT NOW IS
THAT THIS MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT.  SO EXPECTING A WET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN AND A SWITCH TO SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT.  AND EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE STORM/S ENERGY MAY SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST...WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING
RIGHT INTO THE THURSDAY.  H8 TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND -8C BY CHRISTMAS
DAY SO EXPECT LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SNOW A BIT.  ALL
IN ALL IT APPEARS A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF SW MI.

UNTIL THEN...I ADDED POPS TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96.  MODELS SHOW A SHARPENING WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF IT.  WOULD
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER AN INCH.  THEN WARMER AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN THE PCPN SHOULD SWITCH TO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

A COUPLE OF AVIATION HAZARDS EXIST INTO FRIDAY. TO START IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXIST THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THERE IS A BOUNDARY
SHIFTING SOUTH OF KGRR AND KLAN. TAF SITES SOUTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IFR THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH
OF THESE LOCATIONS AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWING DOWN...AND THAT
COULD PROLONG THE IMPACT CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY.

ICING WILL EXIST IN THE CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS EVENING THROUGH 04Z APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND STAY LOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ065>067-073-
     074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...EBW/JK
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...TJT







000
FXUS63 KGRR 190240
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
940 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SUN ON
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WARM UP
INTO THE LOWER 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...WITH MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.  RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A PERIOD OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE ABOUT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW OUT FOR THE COUNTIES MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. REPORTS STARTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE
ADVISORY COUNTIES THAT ROADS WERE BECOMING QUITE SLICK AND
NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS HAD OCCURRED RECENTLY. WEST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...PCPN HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE WITHOUT ANY ISSUES.

SFC TROUGH HAS MOVED TO A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH OF HOLLAND...TO
JUST NORTH OF MASON...AND THEN TO DETROIT. DGZ LARGELY REMAINS
UNSATURATED AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. BEHIND THE TROUGH...WINDS BECOME MORE
NRLY AND PCPN PRETTY MUCH ENDS AT THAT POINT. SFC TROUGH SHOULD BE
EXITING THE CWFA AROUND 06Z OR SO WHICH SHOULD END THE THREAT OF
THE GLAZE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WE WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
FOR THE SE PORTION OF THE CWFA. THE COUNTIES THAT WILL BE IN THE
ADVISORY WILL BE BARRY... EATON...INGHAM...CALHOUN...AND JACKSON
COUNTIES. WE ARE GETTING REPORTS THAT THERE HAVE MANY ACCIDENTS
DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING THERE. MORE DETAILS WILL FOLLOW
SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ROUGHLY ALONG A HOLLAND TO
GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING LINE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...BUT EXPECT A SLOW CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
SHOWS THE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH TO I-94 BY 10 PM. THERE IS A
NARROW WINDOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE SPEED CONVERGENCE OF WINDS
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SUPPLEMENT BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE. LIGHT SNOW
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DETAILS OF THE STORM
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION JUST PRIOR TO CHRISTMAS AND
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...NOW
TAKING IT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT.  THEY ARE ALSO
HINTING AT AN EAST COAST LOW WHICH MAY TRANSFER ENERGY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LOW.  BOTTOM LINE...THIS APPEARS TO BE A SLOW MOVING
STORM AND A FEW WOBBLES EITHER WAY WILL BE MAKE A DIFFERENCE ON
TIMING PCPN TYPE.

THE STORM BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
FAVOR A QUICKER ARRIVAL TO THE COLDER AIR.  BEST BET RIGHT NOW IS
THAT THIS MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT.  SO EXPECTING A WET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN AND A SWITCH TO SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT.  AND EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE STORM/S ENERGY MAY SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST...WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING
RIGHT INTO THE THURSDAY.  H8 TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND -8C BY CHRISTMAS
DAY SO EXPECT LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SNOW A BIT.  ALL
IN ALL IT APPEARS A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF SW MI.

UNTIL THEN...I ADDED POPS TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96.  MODELS SHOW A SHARPENING WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF IT.  WOULD
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER AN INCH.  THEN WARMER AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN THE PCPN SHOULD SWITCH TO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

A COUPLE OF AVIATION HAZARDS EXIST INTO FRIDAY. TO START IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXIST THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THERE IS A BOUNDARY
SHIFTING SOUTH OF KGRR AND KLAN. TAF SITES SOUTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IFR THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH
OF THESE LOCATIONS AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWING DOWN...AND THAT
COULD PROLONG THE IMPACT CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY.

ICING WILL EXIST IN THE CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS EVENING THROUGH 04Z APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND STAY LOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ065>067-073-
     074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...EBW/JK
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...TJT








000
FXUS63 KGRR 190224
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
924 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SUN ON
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WARM UP
INTO THE LOWER 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...WITH MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.  RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A PERIOD OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE ABOUT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WE WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
FOR THE SE PORTION OF THE CWFA. THE COUNTIES THAT WILL BE IN THE
ADVISORY WILL BE BARRY... EATON...INGHAM...CALHOUN...AND JACKSON
COUNTIES. WE ARE GETTING REPORTS THAT THERE HAVE MANY ACCIDENTS
DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING THERE. MORE DETAILS WILL FOLLOW
SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ROUGHLY ALONG A HOLLAND TO
GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING LINE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...BUT EXPECT A SLOW CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
SHOWS THE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH TO I-94 BY 10 PM. THERE IS A
NARROW WINDOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE SPEED CONVERGENCE OF WINDS
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SUPPLEMENT BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE. LIGHT SNOW
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DETAILS OF THE STORM
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION JUST PRIOR TO CHRISTMAS AND
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...NOW
TAKING IT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT.  THEY ARE ALSO
HINTING AT AN EAST COAST LOW WHICH MAY TRANSFER ENERGY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LOW.  BOTTOM LINE...THIS APPEARS TO BE A SLOW MOVING
STORM AND A FEW WOBBLES EITHER WAY WILL BE MAKE A DIFFERENCE ON
TIMING PCPN TYPE.

THE STORM BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
FAVOR A QUICKER ARRIVAL TO THE COLDER AIR.  BEST BET RIGHT NOW IS
THAT THIS MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT.  SO EXPECTING A WET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN AND A SWITCH TO SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT.  AND EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE STORM/S ENERGY MAY SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST...WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING
RIGHT INTO THE THURSDAY.  H8 TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND -8C BY CHRISTMAS
DAY SO EXPECT LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SNOW A BIT.  ALL
IN ALL IT APPEARS A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF SW MI.

UNTIL THEN...I ADDED POPS TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96.  MODELS SHOW A SHARPENING WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF IT.  WOULD
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER AN INCH.  THEN WARMER AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN THE PCPN SHOULD SWITCH TO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

A COUPLE OF AVIATION HAZARDS EXIST INTO FRIDAY. TO START IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXIST THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THERE IS A BOUNDARY
SHIFTING SOUTH OF KGRR AND KLAN. TAF SITES SOUTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IFR THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH
OF THESE LOCATIONS AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWING DOWN...AND THAT
COULD PROLONG THE IMPACT CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY.

ICING WILL EXIST IN THE CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS EVENING THROUGH 04Z APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND STAY LOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...EBW/JK
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...TJT








000
FXUS63 KGRR 190224
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
924 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SUN ON
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WARM UP
INTO THE LOWER 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...WITH MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.  RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A PERIOD OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE ABOUT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WE WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
FOR THE SE PORTION OF THE CWFA. THE COUNTIES THAT WILL BE IN THE
ADVISORY WILL BE BARRY... EATON...INGHAM...CALHOUN...AND JACKSON
COUNTIES. WE ARE GETTING REPORTS THAT THERE HAVE MANY ACCIDENTS
DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING THERE. MORE DETAILS WILL FOLLOW
SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ROUGHLY ALONG A HOLLAND TO
GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING LINE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...BUT EXPECT A SLOW CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
SHOWS THE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH TO I-94 BY 10 PM. THERE IS A
NARROW WINDOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE SPEED CONVERGENCE OF WINDS
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SUPPLEMENT BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE. LIGHT SNOW
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DETAILS OF THE STORM
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION JUST PRIOR TO CHRISTMAS AND
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...NOW
TAKING IT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT.  THEY ARE ALSO
HINTING AT AN EAST COAST LOW WHICH MAY TRANSFER ENERGY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LOW.  BOTTOM LINE...THIS APPEARS TO BE A SLOW MOVING
STORM AND A FEW WOBBLES EITHER WAY WILL BE MAKE A DIFFERENCE ON
TIMING PCPN TYPE.

THE STORM BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
FAVOR A QUICKER ARRIVAL TO THE COLDER AIR.  BEST BET RIGHT NOW IS
THAT THIS MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT.  SO EXPECTING A WET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN AND A SWITCH TO SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT.  AND EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE STORM/S ENERGY MAY SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST...WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING
RIGHT INTO THE THURSDAY.  H8 TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND -8C BY CHRISTMAS
DAY SO EXPECT LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SNOW A BIT.  ALL
IN ALL IT APPEARS A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF SW MI.

UNTIL THEN...I ADDED POPS TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96.  MODELS SHOW A SHARPENING WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF IT.  WOULD
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER AN INCH.  THEN WARMER AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN THE PCPN SHOULD SWITCH TO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

A COUPLE OF AVIATION HAZARDS EXIST INTO FRIDAY. TO START IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXIST THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THERE IS A BOUNDARY
SHIFTING SOUTH OF KGRR AND KLAN. TAF SITES SOUTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IFR THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH
OF THESE LOCATIONS AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWING DOWN...AND THAT
COULD PROLONG THE IMPACT CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY.

ICING WILL EXIST IN THE CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS EVENING THROUGH 04Z APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND STAY LOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...EBW/JK
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...TJT







000
FXUS63 KGRR 182329
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
629 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SUN ON
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WARM UP
INTO THE LOWER 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...WITH MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.  RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A PERIOD OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE ABOUT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ROUGHLY ALONG A HOLLAND TO
GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING LINE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...BUT EXPECT A SLOW CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
SHOWS THE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH TO I-94 BY 10 PM. THERE IS A
NARROW WINDOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE SPEED CONVERGENCE OF WINDS
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SUPPLEMENT BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE. LIGHT SNOW
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DETAILS OF THE STORM
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION JUST PRIOR TO CHRISTMAS AND
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...NOW
TAKING IT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT.  THEY ARE ALSO
HINTING AT AN EAST COAST LOW WHICH MAY TRANSFER ENERGY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LOW.  BOTTOM LINE...THIS APPEARS TO BE A SLOW MOVING
STORM AND A FEW WOBBLES EITHER WAY WILL BE MAKE A DIFFERENCE ON
TIMING PCPN TYPE.

THE STORM BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
FAVOR A QUICKER ARRIVAL TO THE COLDER AIR.  BEST BET RIGHT NOW IS
THAT THIS MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT.  SO EXPECTING A WET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN AND A SWITCH TO SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT.  AND EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE STORM/S ENERGY MAY SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST...WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING
RIGHT INTO THE THURSDAY.  H8 TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND -8C BY CHRISTMAS
DAY SO EXPECT LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SNOW A BIT.  ALL
IN ALL IT APPEARS A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF SW MI.

UNTIL THEN...I ADDED POPS TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96.  MODELS SHOW A SHARPENING WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF IT.  WOULD
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER AN INCH.  THEN WARMER AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN THE PCPN SHOULD SWITCH TO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

A COUPLE OF AVIATION HAZARDS EXIST INTO FRIDAY. TO START IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXIST THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THERE IS A BOUNDARY
SHIFTING SOUTH OF KGRR AND KLAN. TAF SITES SOUTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IFR THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH
OF THESE LOCATIONS AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWING DOWN...AND THAT
COULD PROLONG THE IMPACT CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY.

ICING WILL EXIST IN THE CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS EVENING THROUGH 04Z APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND STAY LOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW/JK
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...TJT








000
FXUS63 KGRR 182003
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
303 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SUN ON
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WARM UP
INTO THE LOWER 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...WITH MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.  RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A PERIOD OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE ABOUT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ROUGHLY ALONG A HOLLAND TO
GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING LINE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...BUT EXPECT A SLOW CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
SHOWS THE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH TO I-94 BY 10 PM. THERE IS A
NARROW WINDOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE SPEED CONVERGENCE OF WINDS
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SUPPLEMENT BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE. LIGHT SNOW
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DETAILS OF THE STORM
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION JUST PRIOR TO CHRISTMAS AND
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...NOW
TAKING IT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT.  THEY ARE ALSO
HINTING AT AN EAST COAST LOW WHICH MAY TRANSFER ENERGY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LOW.  BOTTOM LINE...THIS APPEARS TO BE A SLOW MOVING
STORM AND A FEW WOBBLES EITHER WAY WILL BE MAKE A DIFFERENCE ON
TIMING PCPN TYPE.

THE STORM BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
FAVOR A QUICKER ARRIVAL TO THE COLDER AIR.  BEST BET RIGHT NOW IS
THAT THIS MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT.  SO EXPECTING A WET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN AND A SWITCH TO SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT.  AND EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE STORM/S ENERGY MAY SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST...WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING
RIGHT INTO THE THURSDAY.  H8 TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND -8C BY CHRISTMAS
DAY SO EXPECT LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SNOW A BIT.  ALL
IN ALL IT APPEARS A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF SW MI.

UNTIL THEN...I ADDED POPS TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96.  MODELS SHOW A SHARPENING WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF IT.  WOULD
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER AN INCH.  THEN WARMER AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN THE PCPN SHOULD SWITCH TO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

PILOTS WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE THREAT OF AIRCRAFT ICING TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT.  SOME REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED.  AND THE IN CLOUD TEMP WILL BE IN THE -8 TO -11C RANGE
BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FT.  THIS IS AN IDEAL RANGE FOR SUPER-COOLED
LIQUID TO EXIST WITHIN THESE CLOUDS. CLOUD TOPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10,000 FT MUCH OF THE DAY...SO IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO CLIMB
OUT OF THE ICING. CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER UNTIL
02-04Z WHEN THE ICING THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH.

MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINED UNDER MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PATCHY IFR IN LOWER CEILINGS AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE. EXPECT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT SHOULD END ACROSS THE I-96 TAF SITES BY
21-22Z. THIS THREAT COULD LINGER NEAR THE I-94 TAF SITES UNTIL
ABOUT 01Z.

DRIER AIR SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND EXPECT AN
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TO MOSTLY VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND STAY LOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW/JK
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...TJT








000
FXUS63 KGRR 182003
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
303 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SUN ON
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WARM UP
INTO THE LOWER 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...WITH MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.  RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A PERIOD OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE ABOUT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ROUGHLY ALONG A HOLLAND TO
GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING LINE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...BUT EXPECT A SLOW CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
SHOWS THE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH TO I-94 BY 10 PM. THERE IS A
NARROW WINDOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE SPEED CONVERGENCE OF WINDS
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SUPPLEMENT BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE. LIGHT SNOW
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DETAILS OF THE STORM
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION JUST PRIOR TO CHRISTMAS AND
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...NOW
TAKING IT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT.  THEY ARE ALSO
HINTING AT AN EAST COAST LOW WHICH MAY TRANSFER ENERGY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LOW.  BOTTOM LINE...THIS APPEARS TO BE A SLOW MOVING
STORM AND A FEW WOBBLES EITHER WAY WILL BE MAKE A DIFFERENCE ON
TIMING PCPN TYPE.

THE STORM BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
FAVOR A QUICKER ARRIVAL TO THE COLDER AIR.  BEST BET RIGHT NOW IS
THAT THIS MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT.  SO EXPECTING A WET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN AND A SWITCH TO SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT.  AND EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE STORM/S ENERGY MAY SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST...WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING
RIGHT INTO THE THURSDAY.  H8 TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND -8C BY CHRISTMAS
DAY SO EXPECT LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SNOW A BIT.  ALL
IN ALL IT APPEARS A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF SW MI.

UNTIL THEN...I ADDED POPS TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96.  MODELS SHOW A SHARPENING WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF IT.  WOULD
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER AN INCH.  THEN WARMER AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN THE PCPN SHOULD SWITCH TO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

PILOTS WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE THREAT OF AIRCRAFT ICING TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT.  SOME REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED.  AND THE IN CLOUD TEMP WILL BE IN THE -8 TO -11C RANGE
BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FT.  THIS IS AN IDEAL RANGE FOR SUPER-COOLED
LIQUID TO EXIST WITHIN THESE CLOUDS. CLOUD TOPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10,000 FT MUCH OF THE DAY...SO IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO CLIMB
OUT OF THE ICING. CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER UNTIL
02-04Z WHEN THE ICING THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH.

MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINED UNDER MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PATCHY IFR IN LOWER CEILINGS AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE. EXPECT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT SHOULD END ACROSS THE I-96 TAF SITES BY
21-22Z. THIS THREAT COULD LINGER NEAR THE I-94 TAF SITES UNTIL
ABOUT 01Z.

DRIER AIR SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND EXPECT AN
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TO MOSTLY VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND STAY LOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW/JK
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...TJT







000
FXUS63 KGRR 181940
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SUN ON
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WARM UP
INTO THE LOWER 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...WITH MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.  RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A PERIOD OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE ABOUT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ROUGHLY ALONG A HOLLAND TO
GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING LINE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...BUT EXPECT A SLOW CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
SHOWS THE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH TO I-94 BY 10 PM. THERE IS A
NARROW WINDOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE SPEED CONVERGENCE OF WINDS
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SUPPLEMENT BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE. LIGHT SNOW
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

PILOTS WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE THREAT OF AIRCRAFT ICING TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT.  SOME REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED.  AND THE IN CLOUD TEMP WILL BE IN THE -8 TO -11C RANGE
BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FT.  THIS IS AN IDEAL RANGE FOR SUPER-COOLED
LIQUID TO EXIST WITHIN THESE CLOUDS. CLOUD TOPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10,000 FT MUCH OF THE DAY...SO IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO CLIMB
OUT OF THE ICING. CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER UNTIL
02-04Z WHEN THE ICING THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH.

MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINED UNDER MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PATCHY IFR IN LOWER CEILINGS AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE. EXPECT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT SHOULD END ACROSS THE I-96 TAF SITES BY
21-22Z. THIS THREAT COULD LINGER NEAR THE I-94 TAF SITES UNTIL
ABOUT 01Z.

DRIER AIR SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND EXPECT AN
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TO MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND STAY LOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW/JK
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...TJT







000
FXUS63 KGRR 181940
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SUN ON
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WARM UP
INTO THE LOWER 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...WITH MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.  RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A PERIOD OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE ABOUT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ROUGHLY ALONG A HOLLAND TO
GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING LINE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...BUT EXPECT A SLOW CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR
SHOWS THE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH TO I-94 BY 10 PM. THERE IS A
NARROW WINDOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE SPEED CONVERGENCE OF WINDS
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SUPPLEMENT BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE. LIGHT SNOW
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

PILOTS WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE THREAT OF AIRCRAFT ICING TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT.  SOME REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED.  AND THE IN CLOUD TEMP WILL BE IN THE -8 TO -11C RANGE
BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FT.  THIS IS AN IDEAL RANGE FOR SUPER-COOLED
LIQUID TO EXIST WITHIN THESE CLOUDS. CLOUD TOPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10,000 FT MUCH OF THE DAY...SO IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO CLIMB
OUT OF THE ICING. CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER UNTIL
02-04Z WHEN THE ICING THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH.

MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINED UNDER MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PATCHY IFR IN LOWER CEILINGS AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE. EXPECT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT SHOULD END ACROSS THE I-96 TAF SITES BY
21-22Z. THIS THREAT COULD LINGER NEAR THE I-94 TAF SITES UNTIL
ABOUT 01Z.

DRIER AIR SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND EXPECT AN
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TO MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND STAY LOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW/JK
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...TJT








000
FXUS63 KGRR 181755
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1255 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HAVE RECEIVED SOME ACCIDENT REPORTS IN THE LANSING AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH ICING FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW. THERE HAS BEEN A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN RADAR RETURNS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE OVER SW LOWER MI.
THESE RETURNS ARE SOUTH OF A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED EAST THROUGH
HOLLAND AND GRAND RAPIDS AT 1045 AM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH AND IS CO-LOCATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOW THAT
MAY BE A FURTHER CATALYST FOR ICING...ESPECIALLY ON EXPOSED
ROADWAYS.

TEMPERATURES MAY INITIALLY BE SLOW TO RISE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
AS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID-UPPER 20S. THE DELAYED WARMUP MAY KEEP TRAVEL HAZARDOUS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL BE ISSUING A STATEMENT TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

PILOTS WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE THREAT OF AIRCRAFT ICING TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT.  SOME REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED.  AND THE IN CLOUD TEMP WILL BE IN THE -8 TO -11C RANGE
BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FT.  THIS IS AN IDEAL RANGE FOR SUPER-COOLED
LIQUID TO EXIST WITHIN THESE CLOUDS. CLOUD TOPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10,000 FT MUCH OF THE DAY...SO IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO CLIMB
OUT OF THE ICING. CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER UNTIL
02-04Z WHEN THE ICING THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH.

MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINED UNDER MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PATCHY IFR IN LOWER CEILINGS AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE. EXPECT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT SHOULD END ACROSS THE I-96 TAF SITES BY
21-22Z. THIS THREAT COULD LINGER NEAR THE I-94 TAF SITES UNTIL
ABOUT 01Z.

DRIER AIR SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND EXPECT AN
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TO MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

BASED ON LATEST WEBCAMS AND WW3 GUIDANCE...CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...TJT








000
FXUS63 KGRR 181755
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1255 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HAVE RECEIVED SOME ACCIDENT REPORTS IN THE LANSING AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH ICING FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW. THERE HAS BEEN A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN RADAR RETURNS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE OVER SW LOWER MI.
THESE RETURNS ARE SOUTH OF A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED EAST THROUGH
HOLLAND AND GRAND RAPIDS AT 1045 AM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH AND IS CO-LOCATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOW THAT
MAY BE A FURTHER CATALYST FOR ICING...ESPECIALLY ON EXPOSED
ROADWAYS.

TEMPERATURES MAY INITIALLY BE SLOW TO RISE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
AS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID-UPPER 20S. THE DELAYED WARMUP MAY KEEP TRAVEL HAZARDOUS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL BE ISSUING A STATEMENT TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

PILOTS WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE THREAT OF AIRCRAFT ICING TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT.  SOME REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED.  AND THE IN CLOUD TEMP WILL BE IN THE -8 TO -11C RANGE
BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FT.  THIS IS AN IDEAL RANGE FOR SUPER-COOLED
LIQUID TO EXIST WITHIN THESE CLOUDS. CLOUD TOPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10,000 FT MUCH OF THE DAY...SO IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO CLIMB
OUT OF THE ICING. CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER UNTIL
02-04Z WHEN THE ICING THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH.

MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINED UNDER MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PATCHY IFR IN LOWER CEILINGS AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE. EXPECT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT SHOULD END ACROSS THE I-96 TAF SITES BY
21-22Z. THIS THREAT COULD LINGER NEAR THE I-94 TAF SITES UNTIL
ABOUT 01Z.

DRIER AIR SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND EXPECT AN
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TO MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

BASED ON LATEST WEBCAMS AND WW3 GUIDANCE...CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...TJT







000
FXUS63 KGRR 181607
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1107 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HAVE RECEIVED SOME ACCIDENT REPORTS IN THE LANSING AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH ICING FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW. THERE HAS BEEN A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN RADAR RETURNS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE OVER SW LOWER MI.
THESE RETURNS ARE SOUTH OF A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED EAST THROUGH
HOLLAND AND GRAND RAPIDS AT 1045 AM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH AND IS CO-LOCATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOW THAT
MAY BE A FURTHER CATALYST FOR ICING...ESPECIALLY ON EXPOSED
ROADWAYS.

TEMPERATURES MAY INITIALLY BE SLOW TO RISE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
AS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID-UPPER 20S. THE DELAYED WARMUP MAY KEEP TRAVEL HAZARDOUS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL BE ISSUING A STATEMENT TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

PILOTS WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE THREAT OF AIRCRAFT ICING TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT.  SOME REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED.  AND THE IN CLOUD TEMP WILL BE IN THE -8 TO -11C RANGE
BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FT.  THIS IS AN IDEAL RANGE FOR SUPER-COOLED
LIQUID TO EXIST WITHIN THESE CLOUDS. CLOUD TOPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10,000 FT MUCH OF THE DAY...SO IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO CLIMB
OUT OF THE ICING.  CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER UNTIL MID
EVENING.

WIDESPREAD OVC STRATUS DECK WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT AND TOPS
AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR
PERHAPS A BIT OF DRIZZLE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
ANTICIPATED. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

BASED ON LATEST WEBCAMS AND WW3 GUIDANCE...CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...TJT








000
FXUS63 KGRR 181607
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1107 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HAVE RECEIVED SOME ACCIDENT REPORTS IN THE LANSING AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH ICING FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW. THERE HAS BEEN A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN RADAR RETURNS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE OVER SW LOWER MI.
THESE RETURNS ARE SOUTH OF A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED EAST THROUGH
HOLLAND AND GRAND RAPIDS AT 1045 AM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH AND IS CO-LOCATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOW THAT
MAY BE A FURTHER CATALYST FOR ICING...ESPECIALLY ON EXPOSED
ROADWAYS.

TEMPERATURES MAY INITIALLY BE SLOW TO RISE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
AS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID-UPPER 20S. THE DELAYED WARMUP MAY KEEP TRAVEL HAZARDOUS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL BE ISSUING A STATEMENT TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

PILOTS WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE THREAT OF AIRCRAFT ICING TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT.  SOME REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED.  AND THE IN CLOUD TEMP WILL BE IN THE -8 TO -11C RANGE
BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FT.  THIS IS AN IDEAL RANGE FOR SUPER-COOLED
LIQUID TO EXIST WITHIN THESE CLOUDS. CLOUD TOPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10,000 FT MUCH OF THE DAY...SO IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO CLIMB
OUT OF THE ICING.  CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER UNTIL MID
EVENING.

WIDESPREAD OVC STRATUS DECK WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT AND TOPS
AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR
PERHAPS A BIT OF DRIZZLE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
ANTICIPATED. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

BASED ON LATEST WEBCAMS AND WW3 GUIDANCE...CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...TJT







000
FXUS63 KGRR 181504
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1004 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

PILOTS WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE THREAT OF AIRCRAFT ICING TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT.  SOME REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED.  AND THE IN CLOUD TEMP WILL BE IN THE -8 TO -11C RANGE
BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FT.  THIS IS AN IDEAL RANGE FOR SUPER-COOLED
LIQUID TO EXIST WITHIN THESE CLOUDS. CLOUD TOPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10,000 FT MUCH OF THE DAY...SO IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO CLIMB
OUT OF THE ICING.  CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER UNTIL MID
EVENING.

WIDESPREAD OVC STRATUS DECK WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT AND TOPS
AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR
PERHAPS A BIT OF DRIZZLE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
ANTICIPATED. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO











000
FXUS63 KGRR 181504
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1004 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

PILOTS WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE THREAT OF AIRCRAFT ICING TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT.  SOME REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED.  AND THE IN CLOUD TEMP WILL BE IN THE -8 TO -11C RANGE
BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FT.  THIS IS AN IDEAL RANGE FOR SUPER-COOLED
LIQUID TO EXIST WITHIN THESE CLOUDS. CLOUD TOPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10,000 FT MUCH OF THE DAY...SO IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO CLIMB
OUT OF THE ICING.  CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER UNTIL MID
EVENING.

WIDESPREAD OVC STRATUS DECK WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT AND TOPS
AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR
PERHAPS A BIT OF DRIZZLE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
ANTICIPATED. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO










000
FXUS63 KGRR 181157
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD OVC STRATUS DECK WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT AND TOPS
AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR
PERHAPS A BIT OF DRIZZLE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
ANTICIPATED. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 181157
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD OVC STRATUS DECK WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT AND TOPS
AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR
PERHAPS A BIT OF DRIZZLE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
ANTICIPATED. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO








000
FXUS63 KGRR 181157
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD OVC STRATUS DECK WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT AND TOPS
AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR
PERHAPS A BIT OF DRIZZLE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
ANTICIPATED. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO








000
FXUS63 KGRR 181157
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD OVC STRATUS DECK WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT AND TOPS
AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR
PERHAPS A BIT OF DRIZZLE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
ANTICIPATED. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 180830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS CEILINGS
REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS
WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET OVERNIGHT AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 180830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS CEILINGS
REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS
WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET OVERNIGHT AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO






000
FXUS63 KGRR 180830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS CEILINGS
REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS
WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET OVERNIGHT AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 180830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ON SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...HOWEVER SOME RAIN AND OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING UP
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHCS FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL FROM OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON SATURDAY.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
FCST FOR THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND REGULAR DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS LIGHT PCPN IS IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND NRN WI. THIS TROUGH WILL
ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE OUT.

THIS TROUGH WILL ACT ON RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE VERGE OF SATURATING/
NOT SATURATING THE DGZ. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
THE RADAR WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT MIST THAT IS PATCHY IN
NATURE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED AT TIMES
AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE FEEL THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
UNTIL IT LIKELY ENDS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
-FZDZ THIS MORNING WILL BECOME -DZ AS TEMPS SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY.

WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY SOME SUNSHINE FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
WE WILL SEE NICE RIDGING BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO PCPN CHCS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
THE AREA ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COLDER AND
SHOWIER WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER CHRISTMAS BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING... AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE... WITH HOW
SOON THAT ARRIVES AND EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.

DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH IS A SFC LOW AND TROUGH THAT EVOLVES IN THE MN/IA
AREA THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MONDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT BY
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IS WHEN FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES... GOING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHERE SHOWING A PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GULF LEADING TO A 965 LOW OVER MI FOR CHRISTMAS. THAT SOLUTION HAS
DISAPPEARED IN THE NEW 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS NOW
OCCURRING WELL TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY... COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SWEEP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE REALLY COLD AIR DOES NOT FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS
LOW. IT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 28DEC BEHIND A POTENTIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SO
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR
THE PERSISTENTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS CEILINGS
REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS
WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET OVERNIGHT AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO






000
FXUS63 KGRR 180504
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1204 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WE HAVE RECENTLY UPDATED THE FCST TO LOWER THE CHCS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT DOWN TO MAINLY FLURRIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED SE OF THE AREA...AND
SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN BUILDING IN. THE TREND FOR THE NIGHT IS FOR
LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MODIFYING TEMPS ALOFT. DGZ IS IN
THE PROCESS OF BECOMING UNSATURATED...SO SNOWFLAKES WILL BECOME
MORE AND MORE SPARSE. WE DO NOT EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BECOME
AN ISSUE WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 2K FT AND ABOVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT MORE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE NE CWA. A
SHORT WAVE WAS PASSING THROUGH THIS REGION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.
THIS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 03-06Z AND SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN
LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS CEILINGS
REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS
WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET OVERNIGHT AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO









000
FXUS63 KGRR 180504
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1204 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WE HAVE RECENTLY UPDATED THE FCST TO LOWER THE CHCS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT DOWN TO MAINLY FLURRIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED SE OF THE AREA...AND
SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN BUILDING IN. THE TREND FOR THE NIGHT IS FOR
LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MODIFYING TEMPS ALOFT. DGZ IS IN
THE PROCESS OF BECOMING UNSATURATED...SO SNOWFLAKES WILL BECOME
MORE AND MORE SPARSE. WE DO NOT EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BECOME
AN ISSUE WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 2K FT AND ABOVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT MORE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE NE CWA. A
SHORT WAVE WAS PASSING THROUGH THIS REGION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.
THIS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 03-06Z AND SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN
LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS CEILINGS
REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS
WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET OVERNIGHT AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO








000
FXUS63 KGRR 180204
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
904 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WE HAVE RECENTLY UPDATED THE FCST TO LOWER THE CHCS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT DOWN TO MAINLY FLURRIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED SE OF THE AREA...AND
SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN BUILDING IN. THE TREND FOR THE NIGHT IS FOR
LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MODIFYING TEMPS ALOFT. DGZ IS IN
THE PROCESS OF BECOMING UNSATURATED...SO SNOWFLAKES WILL BECOME
MORE AND MORE SPARSE. WE DO NOT EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BECOME
AN ISSUE WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 2K FT AND ABOVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT MORE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE NE CWA. A
SHORT WAVE WAS PASSING THROUGH THIS REGION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.
THIS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 03-06Z AND SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN
LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

DO NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL NOT AFFECT VISBYS MUCH. CEILINGS REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET
AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET TONIGHT
AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET ON THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 180204
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
904 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WE HAVE RECENTLY UPDATED THE FCST TO LOWER THE CHCS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT DOWN TO MAINLY FLURRIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED SE OF THE AREA...AND
SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN BUILDING IN. THE TREND FOR THE NIGHT IS FOR
LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MODIFYING TEMPS ALOFT. DGZ IS IN
THE PROCESS OF BECOMING UNSATURATED...SO SNOWFLAKES WILL BECOME
MORE AND MORE SPARSE. WE DO NOT EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BECOME
AN ISSUE WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 2K FT AND ABOVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT MORE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE NE CWA. A
SHORT WAVE WAS PASSING THROUGH THIS REGION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.
THIS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 03-06Z AND SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN
LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

DO NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL NOT AFFECT VISBYS MUCH. CEILINGS REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET
AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET TONIGHT
AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET ON THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO








000
FXUS63 KGRR 172348
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
648 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT MORE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE NE CWA. A
SHORT WAVE WAS PASSING THROUGH THIS REGION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.
THIS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 03-06Z AND SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN
LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

DO NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL NOT AFFECT VISBYS MUCH. CEILINGS REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET
AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET TONIGHT
AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET ON THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO








000
FXUS63 KGRR 172341
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
641 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

DO NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL NOT AFFECT VISBYS MUCH. CEILINGS REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET
AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET TONIGHT
AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO








000
FXUS63 KGRR 172341
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
641 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

DO NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL NOT AFFECT VISBYS MUCH. CEILINGS REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET
AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET TONIGHT
AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 172016
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW
FALLING.  THIS HAPPENS WEDNESDAY EVENING/CHRISTMAS EVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
TOWARD EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND WILL PERK UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD GET GOING
AROUND 21Z WITH POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING. THE FLOW FAVORS
AZO HAVING THE MOST IMPACT...BUT MKG...GRR...AND BTL WILL ALSO SEE
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST BY AROUND 03Z
WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LET UP AND A RETURN TO MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 18Z THU.

WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK...GUSTING TO 20-25
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO








000
FXUS63 KGRR 172016
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW
FALLING.  THIS HAPPENS WEDNESDAY EVENING/CHRISTMAS EVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
TOWARD EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND WILL PERK UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD GET GOING
AROUND 21Z WITH POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING. THE FLOW FAVORS
AZO HAVING THE MOST IMPACT...BUT MKG...GRR...AND BTL WILL ALSO SEE
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST BY AROUND 03Z
WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LET UP AND A RETURN TO MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 18Z THU.

WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK...GUSTING TO 20-25
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO







000
FXUS63 KGRR 171748
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1248 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED A LOW THAT IS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ACCUMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY WEST OF US-131. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

FLURRIES WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE MIXED IN WILL CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE DAY..ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. MAIN
FORCING FOR EXISTING PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MOVING ANY LINGERING SNOW OUT OF MOST OF LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...WITH THE LAKE SHORE CONTINUING TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS WELL WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ATTM AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H8 TEMPS NEAR -12C MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY. THAT NORMALLY CREATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHSN. THE
ISSUE TODAY THOUGH IS THE MEAGER DGZ. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE DGZ HUGGING THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4K FT. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME THAT THE DGZ IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFLAKES. WE/LL PROBABLY GET SOME BUT I/M
COMPLETELY UNDERWHELMED BY THIS SETUP. AS SUCH I/VE CUT BACK ON POPS
A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STILL RETAINED THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
OF US-131. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR BAILS LATE THURSDAY AND SO
WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING SHOULD WIND DOWN TO
FLURRIES.

HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WE/VE
SEE LATELY WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGS A THREAT OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH LOOKS TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS HIGHS NEAR 40.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD.. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LOW TO LIFT
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THEN
DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A 965 LOW OVER THE THUMB BY CHRISTMAS MORNING
SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT IN TIME SO CONFIDENCE ON
THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER
TIME.

WEEK TWO...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WINTER TYPE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER OVER
ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS SNOW MAY FALL ON CHRISTMAS DAY (MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS TO GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SNOW ON CHRISTMAS
BUT EACH HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT REASON FOR THAT TO HAPPEN). THE
TIMING OF THE RETURN OF THE REALLY COLD AIR HAS SOME VARIANCE FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN OVER THE PAST WEEK BUT ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE THAT BY AROUND THE 28TH IT WILL GET COLD AND STAY THAT WAY
INTO THE NEW YEAR. BOTH THE 51 MEMBER ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND CFSV2
SHOW THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AND THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JANUARY
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE PATTERN FAVORS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENTS OVER SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL EVENTS. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH THIS SETUP.

BASED ON THE ECMWF 51 MEMBER 32 DAY ENSEMBLE...THE CFSV2 5 DAY
MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECWMF...THE FIM ZEUS AND THE PARALLEL GFS ALL TURN TOWARD
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND CHRISTMAS. IT SEEMS A SYSTEM
CURRENTLY COMING OFF THE AREA OF ASIA NEAR KOREA... CROSSES THE
PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...REACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
SUNDAY. IT IS THAT POINT IT STARTS BUILDING AND UPSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THAT RESULTS IN THE DOWN STREAM
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN BRINGS THE COLD AIR BACK. UNLIKE THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO WE DO NOT HAVE A STRONG EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM TO THAT GIVES THE WAVELENGTH NEEDED TO SET UP THE
SLOWER MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
TOWARD EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND WILL PERK UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD GET GOING
AROUND 21Z WITH POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING. THE FLOW FAVORS
AZO HAVING THE MOST IMPACT...BUT MKG...GRR...AND BTL WILL ALSO SEE
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST BY AROUND 03Z
WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LET UP AND A RETURN TO MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 18Z THU.

WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK...GUSTING TO 20-25
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
RESULTING IN 5 TO 10 FT WAVES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MACZKO
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93








000
FXUS63 KGRR 171748
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1248 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED A LOW THAT IS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ACCUMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY WEST OF US-131. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

FLURRIES WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE MIXED IN WILL CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE DAY..ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. MAIN
FORCING FOR EXISTING PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MOVING ANY LINGERING SNOW OUT OF MOST OF LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...WITH THE LAKE SHORE CONTINUING TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS WELL WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ATTM AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H8 TEMPS NEAR -12C MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY. THAT NORMALLY CREATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHSN. THE
ISSUE TODAY THOUGH IS THE MEAGER DGZ. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE DGZ HUGGING THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4K FT. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME THAT THE DGZ IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFLAKES. WE/LL PROBABLY GET SOME BUT I/M
COMPLETELY UNDERWHELMED BY THIS SETUP. AS SUCH I/VE CUT BACK ON POPS
A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STILL RETAINED THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
OF US-131. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR BAILS LATE THURSDAY AND SO
WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING SHOULD WIND DOWN TO
FLURRIES.

HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WE/VE
SEE LATELY WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGS A THREAT OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH LOOKS TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS HIGHS NEAR 40.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD.. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LOW TO LIFT
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THEN
DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A 965 LOW OVER THE THUMB BY CHRISTMAS MORNING
SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT IN TIME SO CONFIDENCE ON
THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER
TIME.

WEEK TWO...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WINTER TYPE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER OVER
ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS SNOW MAY FALL ON CHRISTMAS DAY (MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS TO GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SNOW ON CHRISTMAS
BUT EACH HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT REASON FOR THAT TO HAPPEN). THE
TIMING OF THE RETURN OF THE REALLY COLD AIR HAS SOME VARIANCE FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN OVER THE PAST WEEK BUT ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE THAT BY AROUND THE 28TH IT WILL GET COLD AND STAY THAT WAY
INTO THE NEW YEAR. BOTH THE 51 MEMBER ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND CFSV2
SHOW THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AND THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JANUARY
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE PATTERN FAVORS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENTS OVER SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL EVENTS. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH THIS SETUP.

BASED ON THE ECMWF 51 MEMBER 32 DAY ENSEMBLE...THE CFSV2 5 DAY
MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECWMF...THE FIM ZEUS AND THE PARALLEL GFS ALL TURN TOWARD
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND CHRISTMAS. IT SEEMS A SYSTEM
CURRENTLY COMING OFF THE AREA OF ASIA NEAR KOREA... CROSSES THE
PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...REACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
SUNDAY. IT IS THAT POINT IT STARTS BUILDING AND UPSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THAT RESULTS IN THE DOWN STREAM
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN BRINGS THE COLD AIR BACK. UNLIKE THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO WE DO NOT HAVE A STRONG EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM TO THAT GIVES THE WAVELENGTH NEEDED TO SET UP THE
SLOWER MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
TOWARD EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND WILL PERK UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD GET GOING
AROUND 21Z WITH POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING. THE FLOW FAVORS
AZO HAVING THE MOST IMPACT...BUT MKG...GRR...AND BTL WILL ALSO SEE
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST BY AROUND 03Z
WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LET UP AND A RETURN TO MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 18Z THU.

WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK...GUSTING TO 20-25
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
RESULTING IN 5 TO 10 FT WAVES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MACZKO
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93







000
FXUS63 KGRR 171615
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1115 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED A LOW THAT IS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ACCUMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY WEST OF US-131. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

FLURRIES WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE MIXED IN WILL CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE DAY..ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. MAIN
FORCING FOR EXISTING PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MOVING ANY LINGERING SNOW OUT OF MOST OF LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...WITH THE LAKE SHORE CONTINUING TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS WELL WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ATTM AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H8 TEMPS NEAR -12C MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY. THAT NORMALLY CREATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHSN. THE
ISSUE TODAY THOUGH IS THE MEAGER DGZ. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE DGZ HUGGING THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4K FT. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME THAT THE DGZ IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFLAKES. WE/LL PROBABLY GET SOME BUT I/M
COMPLETELY UNDERWHELMED BY THIS SETUP. AS SUCH I/VE CUT BACK ON POPS
A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STILL RETAINED THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
OF US-131. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR BAILS LATE THURSDAY AND SO
WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING SHOULD WIND DOWN TO
FLURRIES.

HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WE/VE
SEE LATELY WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGS A THREAT OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH LOOKS TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS HIGHS NEAR 40.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD.. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LOW TO LIFT
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THEN
DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A 965 LOW OVER THE THUMB BY CHRISTMAS MORNING
SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT IN TIME SO CONFIDENCE ON
THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER
TIME.

WEEK TWO...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WINTER TYPE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER OVER
ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS SNOW MAY FALL ON CHRISTMAS DAY (MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS TO GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SNOW ON CHRISTMAS
BUT EACH HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT REASON FOR THAT TO HAPPEN). THE
TIMING OF THE RETURN OF THE REALLY COLD AIR HAS SOME VARIANCE FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN OVER THE PAST WEEK BUT ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE THAT BY AROUND THE 28TH IT WILL GET COLD AND STAY THAT WAY
INTO THE NEW YEAR. BOTH THE 51 MEMBER ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND CFSV2
SHOW THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AND THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JANUARY
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE PATTERN FAVORS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENTS OVER SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL EVENTS. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH THIS SETUP.

BASED ON THE ECMWF 51 MEMBER 32 DAY ENSEMBLE...THE CFSV2 5 DAY
MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECWMF...THE FIM ZEUS AND THE PARALLEL GFS ALL TURN TOWARD
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND CHRISTMAS. IT SEEMS A SYSTEM
CURRENTLY COMING OFF THE AREA OF ASIA NEAR KOREA... CROSSES THE
PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...REACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
SUNDAY. IT IS THAT POINT IT STARTS BUILDING AND UPSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THAT RESULTS IN THE DOWN STREAM
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN BRINGS THE COLD AIR BACK. UNLIKE THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO WE DO NOT HAVE A STRONG EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM TO THAT GIVES THE WAVELENGTH NEEDED TO SET UP THE
SLOWER MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SHALLOW STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR CIGS OF 2000-3000 FT AND TOPS
AROUND 5000 FT ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES. VSBYS SHOULD BE MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE SIX MILES
ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO 3-5 MILES IN LIGHT SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT GRR/MKG/AZO.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
RESULTING IN 5 TO 10 FT WAVES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MACZKO
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93







000
FXUS63 KGRR 171615
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1115 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED A LOW THAT IS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ACCUMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY WEST OF US-131. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

FLURRIES WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE MIXED IN WILL CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE DAY..ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. MAIN
FORCING FOR EXISTING PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MOVING ANY LINGERING SNOW OUT OF MOST OF LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...WITH THE LAKE SHORE CONTINUING TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS WELL WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ATTM AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H8 TEMPS NEAR -12C MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY. THAT NORMALLY CREATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHSN. THE
ISSUE TODAY THOUGH IS THE MEAGER DGZ. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE DGZ HUGGING THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4K FT. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME THAT THE DGZ IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFLAKES. WE/LL PROBABLY GET SOME BUT I/M
COMPLETELY UNDERWHELMED BY THIS SETUP. AS SUCH I/VE CUT BACK ON POPS
A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STILL RETAINED THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
OF US-131. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR BAILS LATE THURSDAY AND SO
WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING SHOULD WIND DOWN TO
FLURRIES.

HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WE/VE
SEE LATELY WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGS A THREAT OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH LOOKS TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS HIGHS NEAR 40.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD.. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LOW TO LIFT
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THEN
DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A 965 LOW OVER THE THUMB BY CHRISTMAS MORNING
SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT IN TIME SO CONFIDENCE ON
THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER
TIME.

WEEK TWO...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WINTER TYPE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER OVER
ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS SNOW MAY FALL ON CHRISTMAS DAY (MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS TO GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SNOW ON CHRISTMAS
BUT EACH HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT REASON FOR THAT TO HAPPEN). THE
TIMING OF THE RETURN OF THE REALLY COLD AIR HAS SOME VARIANCE FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN OVER THE PAST WEEK BUT ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE THAT BY AROUND THE 28TH IT WILL GET COLD AND STAY THAT WAY
INTO THE NEW YEAR. BOTH THE 51 MEMBER ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND CFSV2
SHOW THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AND THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JANUARY
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE PATTERN FAVORS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENTS OVER SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL EVENTS. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH THIS SETUP.

BASED ON THE ECMWF 51 MEMBER 32 DAY ENSEMBLE...THE CFSV2 5 DAY
MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECWMF...THE FIM ZEUS AND THE PARALLEL GFS ALL TURN TOWARD
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND CHRISTMAS. IT SEEMS A SYSTEM
CURRENTLY COMING OFF THE AREA OF ASIA NEAR KOREA... CROSSES THE
PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...REACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
SUNDAY. IT IS THAT POINT IT STARTS BUILDING AND UPSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THAT RESULTS IN THE DOWN STREAM
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN BRINGS THE COLD AIR BACK. UNLIKE THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO WE DO NOT HAVE A STRONG EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM TO THAT GIVES THE WAVELENGTH NEEDED TO SET UP THE
SLOWER MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SHALLOW STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR CIGS OF 2000-3000 FT AND TOPS
AROUND 5000 FT ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES. VSBYS SHOULD BE MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE SIX MILES
ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO 3-5 MILES IN LIGHT SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT GRR/MKG/AZO.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
RESULTING IN 5 TO 10 FT WAVES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MACZKO
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93








000
FXUS63 KGRR 171146
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
646 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED A LOW THAT IS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ACCUMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY WEST OF US-131. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ATTM AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H8 TEMPS NEAR -12C MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY. THAT NORMALLY CREATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHSN. THE
ISSUE TODAY THOUGH IS THE MEAGER DGZ. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE DGZ HUGGING THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4K FT. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME THAT THE DGZ IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFLAKES. WE/LL PROBABLY GET SOME BUT I/M
COMPLETELY UNDERWHELMED BY THIS SETUP. AS SUCH I/VE CUT BACK ON POPS
A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STILL RETAINED THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
OF US-131. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR BAILS LATE THURSDAY AND SO
WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING SHOULD WIND DOWN TO
FLURRIES.

HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WE/VE
SEE LATELY WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGS A THREAT OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH LOOKS TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS HIGHS NEAR 40.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD.. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LOW TO LIFT
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THEN
DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A 965 LOW OVER THE THUMB BY CHRISTMAS MORNING
SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT IN TIME SO CONFIDENCE ON
THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER
TIME.

WEEK TWO...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WINTER TYPE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER OVER
ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS SNOW MAY FALL ON CHRISTMAS DAY (MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS TO GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SNOW ON CHRISTMAS
BUT EACH HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT REASON FOR THAT TO HAPPEN). THE
TIMING OF THE RETURN OF THE REALLY COLD AIR HAS SOME VARIANCE FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN OVER THE PAST WEEK BUT ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE THAT BY AROUND THE 28TH IT WILL GET COLD AND STAY THAT WAY
INTO THE NEW YEAR. BOTH THE 51 MEMBER ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND CFSV2
SHOW THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AND THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JANUARY
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE PATTERN FAVORS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENTS OVER SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL EVENTS. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH THIS SETUP.

BASED ON THE ECMWF 51 MEMBER 32 DAY ENSEMBLE...THE CFSV2 5 DAY
MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECWMF...THE FIM ZEUS AND THE PARALLEL GFS ALL TURN TOWARD
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND CHRISTMAS. IT SEEMS A SYSTEM
CURRENTLY COMING OFF THE AREA OF ASIA NEAR KOREA... CROSSES THE
PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...REACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
SUNDAY. IT IS THAT POINT IT STARTS BUILDING AND UPSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THAT RESULTS IN THE DOWN STREAM
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN BRINGS THE COLD AIR BACK. UNLIKE THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO WE DO NOT HAVE A STRONG EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM TO THAT GIVES THE WAVELENGTH NEEDED TO SET UP THE
SLOWER MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SHALLOW STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR CIGS OF 2000-3000 FT AND TOPS
AROUND 5000 FT ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES. VSBYS SHOULD BE MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE SIX MILES
ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO 3-5 MILES IN LIGHT SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT GRR/MKG/AZO.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
RESULTING IN 5 TO 10 FT WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93








000
FXUS63 KGRR 171119
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
WEEK TWO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED A LOW THAT IS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ACCUMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY WEST OF US-131. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ATTM AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H8 TEMPS NEAR -12C MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY. THAT NORMALLY CREATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHSN. THE
ISSUE TODAY THOUGH IS THE MEAGER DGZ. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE DGZ HUGGING THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4K FT. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME THAT THE DGZ IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFLAKES. WE/LL PROBABLY GET SOME BUT I/M
COMPLETELY UNDERWHELMED BY THIS SETUP. AS SUCH I/VE CUT BACK ON POPS
A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STILL RETAINED THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
OF US-131. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR BAILS LATE THURSDAY AND SO
WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING SHOULD WIND DOWN TO
FLURRIES.

HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WE/VE
SEE LATELY WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGS A THREAT OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH LOOKS TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS HIGHS NEAR 40.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD.. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LOW TO LIFT
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THEN
DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A 965 LOW OVER THE THUMB BY CHRISTMAS MORNING
SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT IN TIME SO CONFIDENCE ON
THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER
TIME.

WEEK TWO...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WINTER TYPE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER OVER
ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS SNOW MAY FALL ON CHRISTMAS DAY (MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS TO GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SNOW ON CHRISTMAS
BUT EACH HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT REASON FOR THAT TO HAPPEN). THE
TIMING OF THE RETURN OF THE REALLY COLD AIR HAS SOME VARIANCE FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN OVER THE PAST WEEK BUT ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE THAT BY AROUND THE 28TH IT WILL GET COLD AND STAY THAT WAY
INTO THE NEW YEAR. BOTH THE 51 MEMBER ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND CFSV2
SHOW THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AND THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JANUARY
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE PATTERN FAVORS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENTS OVER SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL EVENTS. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH THIS SETUP.

BASED ON THE ECMWF 51 MEMBER 32 DAY ENSEMBLE...THE CFSV2 5 DAY
MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECWMF...THE FIM ZEUS AND THE PARALLEL GFS ALL TURN TOWARD
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND CHRISTMAS. IT SEEMS A SYSTEM
CURRENTLY COMING OFF THE AREA OF ASIA NEAR KOREA... CROSSES THE
PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...REACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
SUNDAY. IT IS THAT POINT IT STARTS BUILDING AND UPSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THAT RESULTS IN THE DOWN STREAM
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN BRINGS THE COLD AIR BACK. UNLIKE THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO WE DO NOT HAVE A STRONG EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM TO THAT GIVES THE WAVELENGTH NEEDED TO SET UP THE
SLOWER MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
RESULTING
IN 5 TO 10 FT WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
WEEK TWO...WDM
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93














000
FXUS63 KGRR 171119
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
WEEK TWO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED A LOW THAT IS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ACCUMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY WEST OF US-131. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ATTM AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H8 TEMPS NEAR -12C MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY. THAT NORMALLY CREATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHSN. THE
ISSUE TODAY THOUGH IS THE MEAGER DGZ. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE DGZ HUGGING THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4K FT. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME THAT THE DGZ IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFLAKES. WE/LL PROBABLY GET SOME BUT I/M
COMPLETELY UNDERWHELMED BY THIS SETUP. AS SUCH I/VE CUT BACK ON POPS
A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STILL RETAINED THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
OF US-131. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR BAILS LATE THURSDAY AND SO
WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING SHOULD WIND DOWN TO
FLURRIES.

HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WE/VE
SEE LATELY WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGS A THREAT OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH LOOKS TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS HIGHS NEAR 40.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD.. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LOW TO LIFT
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THEN
DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A 965 LOW OVER THE THUMB BY CHRISTMAS MORNING
SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT IN TIME SO CONFIDENCE ON
THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER
TIME.

WEEK TWO...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WINTER TYPE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER OVER
ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS SNOW MAY FALL ON CHRISTMAS DAY (MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS TO GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SNOW ON CHRISTMAS
BUT EACH HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT REASON FOR THAT TO HAPPEN). THE
TIMING OF THE RETURN OF THE REALLY COLD AIR HAS SOME VARIANCE FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN OVER THE PAST WEEK BUT ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE THAT BY AROUND THE 28TH IT WILL GET COLD AND STAY THAT WAY
INTO THE NEW YEAR. BOTH THE 51 MEMBER ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND CFSV2
SHOW THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AND THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JANUARY
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE PATTERN FAVORS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENTS OVER SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL EVENTS. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH THIS SETUP.

BASED ON THE ECMWF 51 MEMBER 32 DAY ENSEMBLE...THE CFSV2 5 DAY
MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECWMF...THE FIM ZEUS AND THE PARALLEL GFS ALL TURN TOWARD
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND CHRISTMAS. IT SEEMS A SYSTEM
CURRENTLY COMING OFF THE AREA OF ASIA NEAR KOREA... CROSSES THE
PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...REACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
SUNDAY. IT IS THAT POINT IT STARTS BUILDING AND UPSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THAT RESULTS IN THE DOWN STREAM
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN BRINGS THE COLD AIR BACK. UNLIKE THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO WE DO NOT HAVE A STRONG EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM TO THAT GIVES THE WAVELENGTH NEEDED TO SET UP THE
SLOWER MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
RESULTING
IN 5 TO 10 FT WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
WEEK TWO...WDM
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93













000
FXUS63 KGRR 170830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED A LOW THAT IS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ACCUMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY WEST OF US-131. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ATTM AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H8 TEMPS NEAR -12C MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY. THAT NORMALLY CREATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHSN. THE
ISSUE TODAY THOUGH IS THE MEAGER DGZ. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE DGZ HUGGING THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4K FT. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME THAT THE DGZ IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFLAKES. WE/LL PROBABLY GET SOME BUT I/M
COMPLETELY UNDERWHELMED BY THIS SETUP. AS SUCH I/VE CUT BACK ON POPS
A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STILL RETAINED THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
OF US-131. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR BAILS LATE THURSDAY AND SO
WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING SHOULD WIND DOWN TO
FLURRIES.

HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WE/VE
SEE LATELY WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGS A THREAT OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH LOOKS TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS HIGHS NEAR 40.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD.. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LOW TO LIFT
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THEN
DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A 965 LOW OVER THE THUMB BY CHRISTMAS MORNING
SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT IN TIME SO CONFIDENCE ON
THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
RESULTING
IN 5 TO 10 FT WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93










000
FXUS63 KGRR 170830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED A LOW THAT IS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ACCUMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY WEST OF US-131. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ATTM AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H8 TEMPS NEAR -12C MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY. THAT NORMALLY CREATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHSN. THE
ISSUE TODAY THOUGH IS THE MEAGER DGZ. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE DGZ HUGGING THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4K FT. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME THAT THE DGZ IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFLAKES. WE/LL PROBABLY GET SOME BUT I/M
COMPLETELY UNDERWHELMED BY THIS SETUP. AS SUCH I/VE CUT BACK ON POPS
A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STILL RETAINED THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
OF US-131. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR BAILS LATE THURSDAY AND SO
WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING SHOULD WIND DOWN TO
FLURRIES.

HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WE/VE
SEE LATELY WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGS A THREAT OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH LOOKS TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS HIGHS NEAR 40.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD.. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LOW TO LIFT
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THEN
DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A 965 LOW OVER THE THUMB BY CHRISTMAS MORNING
SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT IN TIME SO CONFIDENCE ON
THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
RESULTING
IN 5 TO 10 FT WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93











000
FXUS63 KGRR 170830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED A LOW THAT IS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ACCUMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY WEST OF US-131. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ATTM AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H8 TEMPS NEAR -12C MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY. THAT NORMALLY CREATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHSN. THE
ISSUE TODAY THOUGH IS THE MEAGER DGZ. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE DGZ HUGGING THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4K FT. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO ME THAT THE DGZ IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFLAKES. WE/LL PROBABLY GET SOME BUT I/M
COMPLETELY UNDERWHELMED BY THIS SETUP. AS SUCH I/VE CUT BACK ON POPS
A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STILL RETAINED THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
OF US-131. THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR BAILS LATE THURSDAY AND SO
WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL GOING SHOULD WIND DOWN TO
FLURRIES.

HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WE/VE
SEE LATELY WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGS A THREAT OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH LOOKS TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS HIGHS NEAR 40.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD.. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LOW TO LIFT
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THEN
DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A 965 LOW OVER THE THUMB BY CHRISTMAS MORNING
SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT IN TIME SO CONFIDENCE ON
THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
RESULTING
IN 5 TO 10 FT WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93










000
FXUS63 KGRR 170451
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1151 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

RAIN CHANGES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. QUIET WEATHER
WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SHOULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THAT
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
MY CURRENT THINKING IS AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE
COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT TRAILING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY END FOR A WHILE SOUTH OF MUSKEGON
(AFTER MIDNIGHT) BUT WILL RESUME BY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT I DO EXPECT 1 TO
3 INCHES TO FALL OVER THE 48 HOURS OF THIS EVENT.

WE HAVE A CLOSED COLD CORE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -10C. THE SURFACE AIR COMING OFF SHORE
FROM WISCONSIN SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
TOMORROW SO THAT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION NEEDED FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE NAM
DOES SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE (30 TO 50 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE).
THE CLOUD TOPS DO REACH THE DGZ BUT JUST BARELY SO I DO EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SO MOST AREAS WEST OF US-131 SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW. THIS ALL COMES
TO AN END BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.  THIS STILL APPEARS TO KEEP A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  WE MAY DRAG DOWN
ENOUGH COOL AIR FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE GULF COAST
SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  BUT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY THESE WILL PROBABLY NOT END TO BE
MUCH MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH.  MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCH UP INTO THE 30S OR APPROACH
40 FOR MON/TUE.  GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS TIME FRAME.  IT
APPEARS A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIXED
PCPN COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER TEMP REGIMES SUGGEST ANY MIX SHOULD LARGELY TURN
TO JUST A COLD RAIN BY TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY SO I WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS
ARE JUST COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS I WRITE THIS AND BY 7
PM I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
ACROSS OUR NEAR SHORE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 7
PM TONIGHT AND 7 AM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
MIXED LAYER DURING THAT TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
COME IN BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 24 HOUR OBSERVED
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WERE ALL LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. SMALL RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS...BUT
NOTHING MORE. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 170451
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1151 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

RAIN CHANGES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. QUIET WEATHER
WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SHOULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THAT
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
MY CURRENT THINKING IS AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE
COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT TRAILING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY END FOR A WHILE SOUTH OF MUSKEGON
(AFTER MIDNIGHT) BUT WILL RESUME BY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT I DO EXPECT 1 TO
3 INCHES TO FALL OVER THE 48 HOURS OF THIS EVENT.

WE HAVE A CLOSED COLD CORE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -10C. THE SURFACE AIR COMING OFF SHORE
FROM WISCONSIN SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
TOMORROW SO THAT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION NEEDED FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE NAM
DOES SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE (30 TO 50 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE).
THE CLOUD TOPS DO REACH THE DGZ BUT JUST BARELY SO I DO EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SO MOST AREAS WEST OF US-131 SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW. THIS ALL COMES
TO AN END BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.  THIS STILL APPEARS TO KEEP A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  WE MAY DRAG DOWN
ENOUGH COOL AIR FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE GULF COAST
SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  BUT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY THESE WILL PROBABLY NOT END TO BE
MUCH MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH.  MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCH UP INTO THE 30S OR APPROACH
40 FOR MON/TUE.  GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS TIME FRAME.  IT
APPEARS A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIXED
PCPN COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER TEMP REGIMES SUGGEST ANY MIX SHOULD LARGELY TURN
TO JUST A COLD RAIN BY TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY SO I WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS
ARE JUST COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS I WRITE THIS AND BY 7
PM I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
ACROSS OUR NEAR SHORE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 7
PM TONIGHT AND 7 AM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
MIXED LAYER DURING THAT TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
COME IN BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 24 HOUR OBSERVED
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WERE ALL LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. SMALL RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS...BUT
NOTHING MORE. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 170451
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1151 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

RAIN CHANGES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. QUIET WEATHER
WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SHOULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THAT
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
MY CURRENT THINKING IS AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE
COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT TRAILING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY END FOR A WHILE SOUTH OF MUSKEGON
(AFTER MIDNIGHT) BUT WILL RESUME BY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT I DO EXPECT 1 TO
3 INCHES TO FALL OVER THE 48 HOURS OF THIS EVENT.

WE HAVE A CLOSED COLD CORE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -10C. THE SURFACE AIR COMING OFF SHORE
FROM WISCONSIN SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
TOMORROW SO THAT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION NEEDED FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE NAM
DOES SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE (30 TO 50 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE).
THE CLOUD TOPS DO REACH THE DGZ BUT JUST BARELY SO I DO EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SO MOST AREAS WEST OF US-131 SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW. THIS ALL COMES
TO AN END BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.  THIS STILL APPEARS TO KEEP A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  WE MAY DRAG DOWN
ENOUGH COOL AIR FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE GULF COAST
SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  BUT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY THESE WILL PROBABLY NOT END TO BE
MUCH MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH.  MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCH UP INTO THE 30S OR APPROACH
40 FOR MON/TUE.  GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS TIME FRAME.  IT
APPEARS A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIXED
PCPN COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER TEMP REGIMES SUGGEST ANY MIX SHOULD LARGELY TURN
TO JUST A COLD RAIN BY TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY SO I WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS
ARE JUST COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS I WRITE THIS AND BY 7
PM I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
ACROSS OUR NEAR SHORE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 7
PM TONIGHT AND 7 AM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
MIXED LAYER DURING THAT TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
COME IN BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 24 HOUR OBSERVED
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WERE ALL LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. SMALL RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS...BUT
NOTHING MORE. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 170451
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1151 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

RAIN CHANGES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. QUIET WEATHER
WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SHOULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THAT
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
MY CURRENT THINKING IS AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE
COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT TRAILING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY END FOR A WHILE SOUTH OF MUSKEGON
(AFTER MIDNIGHT) BUT WILL RESUME BY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT I DO EXPECT 1 TO
3 INCHES TO FALL OVER THE 48 HOURS OF THIS EVENT.

WE HAVE A CLOSED COLD CORE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -10C. THE SURFACE AIR COMING OFF SHORE
FROM WISCONSIN SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
TOMORROW SO THAT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION NEEDED FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE NAM
DOES SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE (30 TO 50 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE).
THE CLOUD TOPS DO REACH THE DGZ BUT JUST BARELY SO I DO EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SO MOST AREAS WEST OF US-131 SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW. THIS ALL COMES
TO AN END BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.  THIS STILL APPEARS TO KEEP A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  WE MAY DRAG DOWN
ENOUGH COOL AIR FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE GULF COAST
SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  BUT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY THESE WILL PROBABLY NOT END TO BE
MUCH MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH.  MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCH UP INTO THE 30S OR APPROACH
40 FOR MON/TUE.  GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS TIME FRAME.  IT
APPEARS A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIXED
PCPN COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER TEMP REGIMES SUGGEST ANY MIX SHOULD LARGELY TURN
TO JUST A COLD RAIN BY TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY SO I WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS
ARE JUST COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS I WRITE THIS AND BY 7
PM I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
ACROSS OUR NEAR SHORE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 7
PM TONIGHT AND 7 AM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
MIXED LAYER DURING THAT TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
COME IN BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 24 HOUR OBSERVED
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WERE ALL LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. SMALL RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS...BUT
NOTHING MORE. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 162334
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
634 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

RAIN CHANGES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. QUIET WEATHER
WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SHOULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THAT
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
MY CURRENT THINKING IS AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE
COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT TRAILING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY END FOR A WHILE SOUTH OF MUSKEGON
(AFTER MIDNIGHT) BUT WILL RESUME BY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT I DO EXPECT 1 TO
3 INCHES TO FALL OVER THE 48 HOURS OF THIS EVENT.

WE HAVE A CLOSED COLD CORE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -10C. THE SURFACE AIR COMING OFF SHORE
FROM WISCONSIN SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
TOMORROW SO THAT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION NEEDED FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE NAM
DOES SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE (30 TO 50 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE).
THE CLOUD TOPS DO REACH THE DGZ BUT JUST BARELY SO I DO EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SO MOST AREAS WEST OF US-131 SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW. THIS ALL COMES
TO AN END BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.  THIS STILL APPEARS TO KEEP A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  WE MAY DRAG DOWN
ENOUGH COOL AIR FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE GULF COAST
SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  BUT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY THESE WILL PROBABLY NOT END TO BE
MUCH MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH.  MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCH UP INTO THE 30S OR APPROACH
40 FOR MON/TUE.  GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS TIME FRAME.  IT
APPEARS A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIXED
PCPN COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER TEMP REGIMES SUGGEST ANY MIX SHOULD LARGELY TURN
TO JUST A COLD RAIN BY TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AS SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS BEGIN MIX WITH WET SNOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF
IFR CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW. WINDS WILL BE
WEST AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY SO I WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS
ARE JUST COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS I WRITE THIS AND BY 7
PM I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
ACROSS OUR NEAR SHORE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 7
PM TONIGHT AND 7 AM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
MIXED LAYER DURING THAT TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
COME IN BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 24 HOUR OBSERVED
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WERE ALL LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. SMALL RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS...BUT
NOTHING MORE. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM





000
FXUS63 KGRR 162334
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
634 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

RAIN CHANGES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. QUIET WEATHER
WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SHOULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THAT
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
MY CURRENT THINKING IS AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE
COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT TRAILING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY END FOR A WHILE SOUTH OF MUSKEGON
(AFTER MIDNIGHT) BUT WILL RESUME BY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT I DO EXPECT 1 TO
3 INCHES TO FALL OVER THE 48 HOURS OF THIS EVENT.

WE HAVE A CLOSED COLD CORE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -10C. THE SURFACE AIR COMING OFF SHORE
FROM WISCONSIN SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
TOMORROW SO THAT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION NEEDED FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE NAM
DOES SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE (30 TO 50 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE).
THE CLOUD TOPS DO REACH THE DGZ BUT JUST BARELY SO I DO EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SO MOST AREAS WEST OF US-131 SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW. THIS ALL COMES
TO AN END BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.  THIS STILL APPEARS TO KEEP A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  WE MAY DRAG DOWN
ENOUGH COOL AIR FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE GULF COAST
SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  BUT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY THESE WILL PROBABLY NOT END TO BE
MUCH MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH.  MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCH UP INTO THE 30S OR APPROACH
40 FOR MON/TUE.  GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS TIME FRAME.  IT
APPEARS A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIXED
PCPN COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER TEMP REGIMES SUGGEST ANY MIX SHOULD LARGELY TURN
TO JUST A COLD RAIN BY TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AS SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS BEGIN MIX WITH WET SNOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF
IFR CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW. WINDS WILL BE
WEST AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY SO I WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS
ARE JUST COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS I WRITE THIS AND BY 7
PM I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
ACROSS OUR NEAR SHORE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 7
PM TONIGHT AND 7 AM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
MIXED LAYER DURING THAT TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
COME IN BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 24 HOUR OBSERVED
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WERE ALL LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. SMALL RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS...BUT
NOTHING MORE. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM






000
FXUS63 KGRR 162031
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

RAIN CHANGES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. QUIET WEATHER
WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SHOULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THAT
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
MY CURRENT THINKING IS AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE
COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT TRAILING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY END FOR A WHILE SOUTH OF MUSKEGON
(AFTER MIDNIGHT) BUT WILL RESUME BY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ACCUMUATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT I DO EXPECT 1 TO
3 INCHES TO FALL OVER THE 48 HOURS OF THIS EVENT.

WE HAVE A CLOSED COLD CORE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -10C. THE SURFACE AIR COMING OFF SHORE
FROM WISCONIN SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
TOMORROW SO THAT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH SURFACE
INSTABLTIY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION NEEDED FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE NAM
DOES SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE (30 TO 50 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE).
THE CLOUD TOPS DO REACH THE DGZ BUT JUST BARELY SO I DO EXPECT
ACCULATING SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SO MOST AREAS WEST OF US-131 SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW. THIS ALL COMES
TO AN END BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA.



.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.  THIS STILL APPEARS TO KEEP A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  WE MAY DRAG DOWN
ENOUGH COOL AIR FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE GULF COAST
SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  BUT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY THESE WILL PROBABLY NOT END TO BE
MUCH MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH.  MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCH UP INTO THE 30S OR APPROACH
40 FOR MON/TUE.  GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS TIME FRAME.  IT
APPEARS A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIXED
PCPN COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER TEMP REGIMES SUGGEST ANY MIX SHOULD LARGELY TURN
TO JUST A COLD RAIN BY TUESDAY

&&

.WEEK TW0...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE
DEC 16 2014

WINTER TYPE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER OVER
ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS SNOW MAY FALL ON CHRISTMAS DAY (MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS TO GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHGIAN SNOW ON CHRISTMAS
BUT EACH HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT REASON FOR THAT TO HAPPEN). THE
TIMING OF THE RETURN OF THE REALLY COLD AIR HAS SOME VARIANCE FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN OVER THE PAST WEEK BUT ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE THAT BY AROUND THE 28TH IT WILL GET COLD AND STAY THAT WAY
INTO THE NEW YEAR. BOTH THE 51 MEMEMBER ECMWF ENSMEBLE AND CFSV2
SHOW THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AND THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JANUARY
5 TO 10 DEGEREES BELOW NORMAL. THE PATTERN FAVORS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENTS OVER SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL EVENTS. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH THIS SETUP.

BASED ON THE ECMWF 51 MEMBER 32 DAY ENSEMLBE...THE CFSV2 5 DAY
MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECWMF...THE FIM ZEUS AND THE PARALLEL GFS ALL TURN TOWARD
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND CHRISTMAS. IT SEEMS A SYSTEM
CURRENTLY COMING OFF THE AREA OF ASIA NEAR KOREA... CROSSES THE
PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...REACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
SUNDAY. IT IS THAT POINT IT STARTS BUILDING AND UPSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THAT RESULTS IN THE DOWN STREAM
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN BRINGS THE COLD AIR BACK. UNLIKE THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO WE DO NOT HAVE A STRONG EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM TO THAT GIVES THE WAVELENGTH NEED TO SET UP THE
SLOWER MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINED UNDER IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS AS OF 17Z.
EXPECT ONLY A SLOW IMPROVE IN THIS. COLDER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS
WILL ARRIVE EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ALONG WITH THESE FACTORS...
THE IFR SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT THAT MOST OF
THE IFR WILL LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 06Z.

AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MEAN LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE 290-300 WHICH FAVORS AZO SEEING THE BEST CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME IFR REDEVELOPING. MKG...GRR...AND BTL
MAY ALSO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO WED MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY SO I WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVIOSRY AS IS. WINDS
ARE JUST COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEAST AS I WRITE THIS AND BY 7
PM I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
ACROSS OUR NEAR SHORE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 7
PM TONIGHT AND 7 AM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
MIXED LAYER DURING THAT TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
COME IN BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 24 HOUR OBSERVED
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WERE ALL LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. SMALL RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS...BUT
NOTHING MORE. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 162031
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

RAIN CHANGES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. QUIET WEATHER
WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SHOULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THAT
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
MY CURRENT THINKING IS AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE
COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT TRAILING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY END FOR A WHILE SOUTH OF MUSKEGON
(AFTER MIDNIGHT) BUT WILL RESUME BY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ACCUMUATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT I DO EXPECT 1 TO
3 INCHES TO FALL OVER THE 48 HOURS OF THIS EVENT.

WE HAVE A CLOSED COLD CORE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -10C. THE SURFACE AIR COMING OFF SHORE
FROM WISCONIN SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
TOMORROW SO THAT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH SURFACE
INSTABLTIY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION NEEDED FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE NAM
DOES SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE (30 TO 50 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE).
THE CLOUD TOPS DO REACH THE DGZ BUT JUST BARELY SO I DO EXPECT
ACCULATING SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SO MOST AREAS WEST OF US-131 SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW. THIS ALL COMES
TO AN END BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA.



.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.  THIS STILL APPEARS TO KEEP A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  WE MAY DRAG DOWN
ENOUGH COOL AIR FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE GULF COAST
SYSTEM SLIDES UP THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  BUT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY THESE WILL PROBABLY NOT END TO BE
MUCH MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH.  MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCH UP INTO THE 30S OR APPROACH
40 FOR MON/TUE.  GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS TIME FRAME.  IT
APPEARS A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIXED
PCPN COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER TEMP REGIMES SUGGEST ANY MIX SHOULD LARGELY TURN
TO JUST A COLD RAIN BY TUESDAY

&&

.WEEK TW0...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE
DEC 16 2014

WINTER TYPE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER OVER
ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS SNOW MAY FALL ON CHRISTMAS DAY (MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS TO GIVE SOUTHWEST MICHGIAN SNOW ON CHRISTMAS
BUT EACH HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT REASON FOR THAT TO HAPPEN). THE
TIMING OF THE RETURN OF THE REALLY COLD AIR HAS SOME VARIANCE FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN OVER THE PAST WEEK BUT ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE THAT BY AROUND THE 28TH IT WILL GET COLD AND STAY THAT WAY
INTO THE NEW YEAR. BOTH THE 51 MEMEMBER ECMWF ENSMEBLE AND CFSV2
SHOW THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AND THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JANUARY
5 TO 10 DEGEREES BELOW NORMAL. THE PATTERN FAVORS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENTS OVER SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL EVENTS. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH THIS SETUP.

BASED ON THE ECMWF 51 MEMBER 32 DAY ENSEMLBE...THE CFSV2 5 DAY
MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECWMF...THE FIM ZEUS AND THE PARALLEL GFS ALL TURN TOWARD
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND CHRISTMAS. IT SEEMS A SYSTEM
CURRENTLY COMING OFF THE AREA OF ASIA NEAR KOREA... CROSSES THE
PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...REACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
SUNDAY. IT IS THAT POINT IT STARTS BUILDING AND UPSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THAT RESULTS IN THE DOWN STREAM
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN BRINGS THE COLD AIR BACK. UNLIKE THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO WE DO NOT HAVE A STRONG EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM TO THAT GIVES THE WAVELENGTH NEED TO SET UP THE
SLOWER MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINED UNDER IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS AS OF 17Z.
EXPECT ONLY A SLOW IMPROVE IN THIS. COLDER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS
WILL ARRIVE EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ALONG WITH THESE FACTORS...
THE IFR SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT THAT MOST OF
THE IFR WILL LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 06Z.

AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MEAN LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE 290-300 WHICH FAVORS AZO SEEING THE BEST CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME IFR REDEVELOPING. MKG...GRR...AND BTL
MAY ALSO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO WED MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY SO I WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVIOSRY AS IS. WINDS
ARE JUST COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEAST AS I WRITE THIS AND BY 7
PM I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
ACROSS OUR NEAR SHORE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 7
PM TONIGHT AND 7 AM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
MIXED LAYER DURING THAT TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
COME IN BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 24 HOUR OBSERVED
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WERE ALL LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. SMALL RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS...BUT
NOTHING MORE. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 161731
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1231 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY SPREADING RAIN
SHOWERS AS IT GOES. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM LATER THIS
EVENING AND THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW.
THIS WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH MUCH
COLDER THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN LATELY...THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF US-131.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FOG HAS BECOME DENSE OVER A GOOD PART OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST RAP MODEL DATA...THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE
WHERE THE WINDS ARE CALM...WHICH IS UNDER THE SURFACE LOW. THIS
AREA OF CALM WINDS SHIFTS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OVER TIME AND BY
16Z IS OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA....REED CITY TO CLAIR TO NEAR ALMA.
AFTER THAT IT IS GONE. SO I BELIEVE THE FOG AREA WILL PERSIST A
GOOD PART OF THE MORNING BUT ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD HAVE ONLY 2
TO 3 HOURS OF LOW VISIBILITIES. GIVEN THE SHORT TIME WINDOW FOR
THIS FOG I AS THINKING NOT TO ISSUE A FOG ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.
WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ON THE FOG AND
WE WILL CALL THAT GOOD FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE THE ON GOING FORECAST IS GOOD...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

REGIONAL RADAR AND IR LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW JUST CROSSING
THE MISSISSIPPI. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHWARD FROM
INDIANA AND WE/LL BE LOOKING AT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN ISN/T ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHTNING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA.
MODELS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER FAR WESTERN
LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING BUT IT PROBABLY TOO FAR AWAY TO RESULT IN
THUNDER IN OUR CWA.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TURN THE LINGERING
PCPN TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. H8 TEMPS FALL TO -12C WEDNESDAY AND THIS
NORMALLY CREATES SUFFICIENT OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SNOW
SHOWERS. THE ISSUE THIS TIME THOUGH IS THE SHALLOW MOISTURE. THE
DGZ IS VERY SMALL AND RESIDES AT THE TOP OF THE SHALLOW MOISTURE
AROUND 4K FT. IT/S PROBABLY ENOUGH TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS...AND
LIGHT ACCUMS WEST OF US-131 BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT. THE SHSN
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

MORE QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THE POLAR
JET STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND THE SRN STREAM BRANCH REMAINS
SOUTH... SO STILL NO MAJOR WINTER SYSTEMS OR ARCTIC AIR IN OUR
FUTURE.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER AS STRATUS/FOG/DRIZZLE COULD BE
AN ISSUE AGAIN UNDER THE SFC HIGH. FOR NOW WILL BE OPTIMISTIC WITH
PARTLY SUNNY WORDING BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINED UNDER IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS AS OF 17Z.
EXPECT ONLY A SLOW IMPROVE IN THIS. COLDER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS
WILL ARRIVE EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ALONG WITH THESE FACTORS...
THE IFR SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT THAT MOST OF
THE IFR WILL LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 06Z.

AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MEAN LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE 290-300 WHICH FAVORS AZO SEEING THE BEST CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME IFR REDEVELOPING. MKG...GRR...AND BTL
MAY ALSO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO WED MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW MOVES BY THIS AFTERNOON. ISSUED A SCA
TO COVER INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93







000
FXUS63 KGRR 161731
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1231 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY SPREADING RAIN
SHOWERS AS IT GOES. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM LATER THIS
EVENING AND THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW.
THIS WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH MUCH
COLDER THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN LATELY...THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF US-131.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FOG HAS BECOME DENSE OVER A GOOD PART OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST RAP MODEL DATA...THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE
WHERE THE WINDS ARE CALM...WHICH IS UNDER THE SURFACE LOW. THIS
AREA OF CALM WINDS SHIFTS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OVER TIME AND BY
16Z IS OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA....REED CITY TO CLAIR TO NEAR ALMA.
AFTER THAT IT IS GONE. SO I BELIEVE THE FOG AREA WILL PERSIST A
GOOD PART OF THE MORNING BUT ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD HAVE ONLY 2
TO 3 HOURS OF LOW VISIBILITIES. GIVEN THE SHORT TIME WINDOW FOR
THIS FOG I AS THINKING NOT TO ISSUE A FOG ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.
WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ON THE FOG AND
WE WILL CALL THAT GOOD FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE THE ON GOING FORECAST IS GOOD...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

REGIONAL RADAR AND IR LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW JUST CROSSING
THE MISSISSIPPI. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHWARD FROM
INDIANA AND WE/LL BE LOOKING AT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN ISN/T ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHTNING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA.
MODELS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER FAR WESTERN
LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING BUT IT PROBABLY TOO FAR AWAY TO RESULT IN
THUNDER IN OUR CWA.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TURN THE LINGERING
PCPN TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. H8 TEMPS FALL TO -12C WEDNESDAY AND THIS
NORMALLY CREATES SUFFICIENT OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SNOW
SHOWERS. THE ISSUE THIS TIME THOUGH IS THE SHALLOW MOISTURE. THE
DGZ IS VERY SMALL AND RESIDES AT THE TOP OF THE SHALLOW MOISTURE
AROUND 4K FT. IT/S PROBABLY ENOUGH TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS...AND
LIGHT ACCUMS WEST OF US-131 BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT. THE SHSN
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

MORE QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THE POLAR
JET STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND THE SRN STREAM BRANCH REMAINS
SOUTH... SO STILL NO MAJOR WINTER SYSTEMS OR ARCTIC AIR IN OUR
FUTURE.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER AS STRATUS/FOG/DRIZZLE COULD BE
AN ISSUE AGAIN UNDER THE SFC HIGH. FOR NOW WILL BE OPTIMISTIC WITH
PARTLY SUNNY WORDING BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINED UNDER IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS AS OF 17Z.
EXPECT ONLY A SLOW IMPROVE IN THIS. COLDER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS
WILL ARRIVE EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ALONG WITH THESE FACTORS...
THE IFR SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT THAT MOST OF
THE IFR WILL LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 06Z.

AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MEAN LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE 290-300 WHICH FAVORS AZO SEEING THE BEST CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME IFR REDEVELOPING. MKG...GRR...AND BTL
MAY ALSO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO WED MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW MOVES BY THIS AFTERNOON. ISSUED A SCA
TO COVER INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93








000
FXUS63 KGRR 161341
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
841 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY SPREADING RAIN
SHOWERS AS IT GOES. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM LATER THIS
EVENING AND THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW.
THIS WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH MUCH
COLDER THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN LATELY...THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF US-131.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FOG HAS BECOME DENSE OVER A GOOD PART OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST RAP MODEL DATA...THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE
WHERE THE WINDS ARE CALM...WHICH IS UNDER THE SURFACE LOW. THIS
AREA OF CALM WINDS SHIFTS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OVER TIME AND BY
16Z IS OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA....REED CITY TO CLAIR TO NEAR ALMA.
AFTER THAT IT IS GONE. SO I BELIEVE THE FOG AREA WILL PERSIST A
GOOD PART OF THE MORNING BUT ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD HAVE ONLY 2
TO 3 HOURS OF LOW VISIBILITIES. GIVEN THE SHORT TIME WINDOW FOR
THIS FOG I AS THINKING NOT TO ISSUE A FOG ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.
WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ON THE FOG AND
WE WILL CALL THAT GOOD FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE THE ON GOING FORECAST IS GOOD...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

REGIONAL RADAR AND IR LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW JUST CROSSING
THE MISSISSIPPI. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHWARD FROM
INDIANA AND WE/LL BE LOOKING AT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN ISN/T ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHTNING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA.
MODELS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER FAR WESTERN
LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING BUT IT PROBABLY TOO FAR AWAY TO RESULT IN
THUNDER IN OUR CWA.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TURN THE LINGERING
PCPN TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. H8 TEMPS FALL TO -12C WEDNESDAY AND THIS
NORMALLY CREATES SUFFICIENT OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SNOW
SHOWERS. THE ISSUE THIS TIME THOUGH IS THE SHALLOW MOISTURE. THE
DGZ IS VERY SMALL AND RESIDES AT THE TOP OF THE SHALLOW MOISTURE
AROUND 4K FT. IT/S PROBABLY ENOUGH TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS...AND
LIGHT ACCUMS WEST OF US-131 BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT. THE SHSN
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

MORE QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THE POLAR
JET STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND THE SRN STREAM BRANCH REMAINS
SOUTH... SO STILL NO MAJOR WINTER SYSTEMS OR ARCTIC AIR IN OUR
FUTURE.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER AS STRATUS/FOG/DRIZZLE COULD BE
AN ISSUE AGAIN UNDER THE SFC HIGH. FOR NOW WILL BE OPTIMISTIC WITH
PARTLY SUNNY WORDING BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FT
AND VSBYS BELOW 2 MILES IN LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT INTO IFR CATEGORY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC
LOW WHICH IS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WORKS EAST AND WINDS
SHIFT/INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR
CATEGORY IS LIKELY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW.
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TONIGHT AT 15-25 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW MOVES BY THIS AFTERNOON. ISSUED A SCA
TO COVER INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93







000
FXUS63 KGRR 161341
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
841 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY SPREADING RAIN
SHOWERS AS IT GOES. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM LATER THIS
EVENING AND THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW.
THIS WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH MUCH
COLDER THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN LATELY...THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF US-131.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FOG HAS BECOME DENSE OVER A GOOD PART OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST RAP MODEL DATA...THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE
WHERE THE WINDS ARE CALM...WHICH IS UNDER THE SURFACE LOW. THIS
AREA OF CALM WINDS SHIFTS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OVER TIME AND BY
16Z IS OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA....REED CITY TO CLAIR TO NEAR ALMA.
AFTER THAT IT IS GONE. SO I BELIEVE THE FOG AREA WILL PERSIST A
GOOD PART OF THE MORNING BUT ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD HAVE ONLY 2
TO 3 HOURS OF LOW VISIBILITIES. GIVEN THE SHORT TIME WINDOW FOR
THIS FOG I AS THINKING NOT TO ISSUE A FOG ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.
WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ON THE FOG AND
WE WILL CALL THAT GOOD FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE THE ON GOING FORECAST IS GOOD...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

REGIONAL RADAR AND IR LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW JUST CROSSING
THE MISSISSIPPI. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHWARD FROM
INDIANA AND WE/LL BE LOOKING AT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN ISN/T ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHTNING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA.
MODELS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER FAR WESTERN
LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING BUT IT PROBABLY TOO FAR AWAY TO RESULT IN
THUNDER IN OUR CWA.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TURN THE LINGERING
PCPN TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. H8 TEMPS FALL TO -12C WEDNESDAY AND THIS
NORMALLY CREATES SUFFICIENT OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SNOW
SHOWERS. THE ISSUE THIS TIME THOUGH IS THE SHALLOW MOISTURE. THE
DGZ IS VERY SMALL AND RESIDES AT THE TOP OF THE SHALLOW MOISTURE
AROUND 4K FT. IT/S PROBABLY ENOUGH TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS...AND
LIGHT ACCUMS WEST OF US-131 BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT. THE SHSN
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

MORE QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THE POLAR
JET STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND THE SRN STREAM BRANCH REMAINS
SOUTH... SO STILL NO MAJOR WINTER SYSTEMS OR ARCTIC AIR IN OUR
FUTURE.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER AS STRATUS/FOG/DRIZZLE COULD BE
AN ISSUE AGAIN UNDER THE SFC HIGH. FOR NOW WILL BE OPTIMISTIC WITH
PARTLY SUNNY WORDING BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FT
AND VSBYS BELOW 2 MILES IN LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT INTO IFR CATEGORY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC
LOW WHICH IS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WORKS EAST AND WINDS
SHIFT/INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR
CATEGORY IS LIKELY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW.
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TONIGHT AT 15-25 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW MOVES BY THIS AFTERNOON. ISSUED A SCA
TO COVER INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93








000
FXUS63 KGRR 161157
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
657 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY SPREADING RAIN
SHOWERS AS IT GOES. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM LATER THIS
EVENING AND THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW.
THIS WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH MUCH
COLDER THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN LATELY...THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF US-131.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

REGIONAL RADAR AND IR LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW JUST CROSSING
THE MISSISSIPPI. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHWARD FROM
INDIANA AND WE/LL BE LOOKING AT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN ISN/T ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHTNING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA.
MODELS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER FAR WESTERN
LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING BUT IT PROBABLY TOO FAR AWAY TO RESULT IN
THUNDER IN OUR CWA.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TURN THE LINGERING
PCPN TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. H8 TEMPS FALL TO -12C WEDNESDAY AND THIS
NORMALLY CREATES SUFFICIENT OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SNOW
SHOWERS. THE ISSUE THIS TIME THOUGH IS THE SHALLOW MOISTURE. THE
DGZ IS VERY SMALL AND RESIDES AT THE TOP OF THE SHALLOW MOISTURE
AROUND 4K FT. IT/S PROBABLY ENOUGH TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS...AND
LIGHT ACCUMS WEST OF US-131 BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT. THE SHSN
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

MORE QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THE POLAR
JET STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND THE SRN STREAM BRANCH REMAINS
SOUTH... SO STILL NO MAJOR WINTER SYSTEMS OR ARCTIC AIR IN OUR
FUTURE.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER AS STRATUS/FOG/DRIZZLE COULD BE
AN ISSUE AGAIN UNDER THE SFC HIGH. FOR NOW WILL BE OPTIMISTIC WITH
PARTLY SUNNY WORDING BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FT
AND VSBYS BELOW 2 MILES IN LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT INTO IFR CATEGORY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC
LOW WHICH IS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WORKS EAST AND WINDS
SHIFT/INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR
CATEGORY IS LIKELY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW.
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TONIGHT AT 15-25 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW MOVES BY THIS AFTERNOON. ISSUED A SCA
TO COVER INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93








000
FXUS63 KGRR 161157
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
657 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY SPREADING RAIN
SHOWERS AS IT GOES. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM LATER THIS
EVENING AND THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW.
THIS WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH MUCH
COLDER THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN LATELY...THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF US-131.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

REGIONAL RADAR AND IR LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW JUST CROSSING
THE MISSISSIPPI. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHWARD FROM
INDIANA AND WE/LL BE LOOKING AT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN ISN/T ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHTNING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA.
MODELS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER FAR WESTERN
LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING BUT IT PROBABLY TOO FAR AWAY TO RESULT IN
THUNDER IN OUR CWA.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TURN THE LINGERING
PCPN TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. H8 TEMPS FALL TO -12C WEDNESDAY AND THIS
NORMALLY CREATES SUFFICIENT OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SNOW
SHOWERS. THE ISSUE THIS TIME THOUGH IS THE SHALLOW MOISTURE. THE
DGZ IS VERY SMALL AND RESIDES AT THE TOP OF THE SHALLOW MOISTURE
AROUND 4K FT. IT/S PROBABLY ENOUGH TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS...AND
LIGHT ACCUMS WEST OF US-131 BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT. THE SHSN
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

MORE QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THE POLAR
JET STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND THE SRN STREAM BRANCH REMAINS
SOUTH... SO STILL NO MAJOR WINTER SYSTEMS OR ARCTIC AIR IN OUR
FUTURE.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER AS STRATUS/FOG/DRIZZLE COULD BE
AN ISSUE AGAIN UNDER THE SFC HIGH. FOR NOW WILL BE OPTIMISTIC WITH
PARTLY SUNNY WORDING BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FT
AND VSBYS BELOW 2 MILES IN LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT INTO IFR CATEGORY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC
LOW WHICH IS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WORKS EAST AND WINDS
SHIFT/INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR
CATEGORY IS LIKELY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW.
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TONIGHT AT 15-25 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW MOVES BY THIS AFTERNOON. ISSUED A SCA
TO COVER INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93







000
FXUS63 KGRR 160821
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY SPREADING RAIN
SHOWERS AS IT GOES. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM LATER THIS
EVENING AND THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW.
THIS WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH MUCH
COLDER THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN LATELY...THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF US-131.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

REGIONAL RADAR AND IR LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW JUST CROSSING
THE MISSISSIPPI. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHWARD FROM
INDIANA AND WE/LL BE LOOKING AT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN ISN/T ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHTNING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA.
MODELS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER FAR WESTERN
LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING BUT IT PROBABLY TOO FAR AWAY TO RESULT IN
THUNDER IN OUR CWA.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TURN THE LINGERING
PCPN TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. H8 TEMPS FALL TO -12C WEDNESDAY AND THIS
NORMALLY CREATES SUFFICIENT OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SNOW
SHOWERS. THE ISSUE THIS TIME THOUGH IS THE SHALLOW MOISTURE. THE
DGZ IS VERY SMALL AND RESIDES AT THE TOP OF THE SHALLOW MOISTURE
AROUND 4K FT. IT/S PROBABLY ENOUGH TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS...AND
LIGHT ACCUMS WEST OF US-131 BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT. THE SHSN
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

MORE QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THE POLAR
JET STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND THE SRN STREAM BRANCH REMAINS
SOUTH... SO STILL NO MAJOR WINTER SYSTEMS OR ARCTIC AIR IN OUR
FUTURE.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER AS STRATUS/FOG/DRIZZLE COULD BE
AN ISSUE AGAIN UNDER THE SFC HIGH. FOR NOW WILL BE OPTIMISTIC WITH
PARTLY SUNNY WORDING BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AOB 10 KNOTS THEN TURN SOUTHWEST TO WEST
DURING TUESDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW MOVES BY THIS AFTERNOON. ISSUED A SCA
TO COVER INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93











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