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000
FXUS63 KGRR 012357
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
757 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
MILD SUMMER WEATHER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
STORM ON SATURDAY ALONG U.S.-10 AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TRIES TO
MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE ONLY ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS DEALING
WITH THE CLOUD TRENDS INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS
FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

WE HAVE SEEN THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA
INTO MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE CLOUDS VS. THE STRATUS THAT WAS IN
PLACE EARLIER THIS MORNING. IT IS TAKING A LITTLE WHILE LONGER
ACROSS THE NW WHERE THE COOLER AIR OFF OF THE LAKE IS NOT ALLOWING
THE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT AS MUCH AS ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

WE ARE EXPECTING THAT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO IS THAT IT WILL TAKE
UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW FOR THE CLEARING LINE
ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN TO MOVE THROUGH THERE.

AFTER THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT THIS EVENING...WE ARE LOOKING AT A
PERIOD OF INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL REMAIN ALMOST
OVERHEAD BEING DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN RIDGE AND WITH THE GULF
MOISTURE BEING BOTTLED UP SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

I AM LOOKING AT THE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY NEAR
ROUTE 10 WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH IS THE
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT COMES THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. I
EXPECT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT. TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS
AN ISSUE THOUGH.

THE MAIN ISSUE IS A REX BLOCK OVER THE BERING SEA LATE THIS WEEK
THAT FORCES MOST OF THE JET ENERGY OVER THE TOP WITH MEANS IT HAS TO
GO THROUGH THE ARCTIC TO GET HERE. THAT RESULTS IN A STRONGLY
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT CREATES A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.  GIVEN THE SIZE OF THESE SYSTEM AND THAT WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT A REX BLOCK...I COULD SEE SLOWING DOWN EVEN MORE THAT
WE ARE NOW SHOWING. IN ANY EVENT THIS WILL BE POLAR AIR MIXING WITH
TROPICAL AIR...WHEN THIS DOES FINALLY HAPPEN I WOULD EXPECT STRONG
STORMS.

A WEAK WAVE TOPS THE UPPER RIDGE AND NUDGES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION ON THAT
WEAK FRONT NEAR ROUTE 10 SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO I PUT LOW CHANCE POPS
THERE.

THE 500 HEIGHTS...1000/850 THICKNESS TOOLS...1000/925 MB THICKNESS
TOOLS ALL TELL ME HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE  MID 80S THIS WEEKEND...IF
NOT WARMER. I INCREASED THE HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREE SAT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION
MIGHT BE AT JXN WHERE THIN STRATUS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FEET
AGL ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BLO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WE WILL BE TAKING DOWN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE COME
DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THESE HEADLINES TO EXPIRE ON TIME THIS
AFTERNOON.

IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WE WILL NOT SEE ANY APPRECIABLE WIND AFTER THIS
AFTERNOON...THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS AT OR BELOW 15
KNOTS MOST OF IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A NARROW SWATH OF ABOUT 1 INCH OF RAIN FELL NEAR AND SOUTH OF
LANSING ON TUESDAY. THIS WATER WILL COLLECT IN THE SYCAMORE CREEK
AND UPPER GRAND RIVER BASIN. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES NEAR HOLT AND
IONIA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES
NEAR COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO AND NEW RICHMOND CONTINUE... AND RIVER
LEVELS THERE ARE SLOWLY RECEDING. ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 011925
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
MILD SUMMER WEATHER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
STORM ON SATURDAY ALONG U.S.-10 AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TRIES TO
MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE ONLY ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS DEALING
WITH THE CLOUD TRENDS INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS
FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

WE HAVE SEEN THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA
INTO MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE CLOUDS VS. THE STRATUS THAT WAS IN
PLACE EARLIER THIS MORNING. IT IS TAKING A LITTLE WHILE LONGER
ACROSS THE NW WHERE THE COOLER AIR OFF OF THE LAKE IS NOT ALLOWING
THE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT AS MUCH AS ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

WE ARE EXPECTING THAT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO IS THAT IT WILL TAKE
UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW FOR THE CLEARING LINE
ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN TO MOVE THROUGH THERE.

AFTER THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT THIS EVENING...WE ARE LOOKING AT A
PERIOD OF INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL REMAIN ALMOST
OVERHEAD BEING DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN RIDGE AND WITH THE GULF
MOISTURE BEING BOTTLED UP SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

I AM LOOKING AT THE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY NEAR
ROUTE 10 WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH IS THE
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT COMES THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. I
EXPECT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT. TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS
AN ISSUE THOUGH.

THE MAIN ISSUE IS A REX BLOCK OVER THE BERING SEA LATE THIS WEEK
THAT FORCES MOST OF THE JET ENERGY OVER THE TOP WITH MEANS IT HAS TO
GO THROUGH THE ARCTIC TO GET HERE. THAT RESULTS IN A STRONGLY
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT CREATES A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.  GIVEN THE SIZE OF THESE SYSTEM AND THAT WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT A REX BLOCK...I COULD SEE SLOWING DOWN EVEN MORE THAT
WE ARE NOW SHOWING. IN ANY EVENT THIS WILL BE POLAR AIR MIXING WITH
TROPICAL AIR...WHEN THIS DOES FINALLY HAPPEN I WOULD EXPECT STRONG
STORMS.

A WEAK WAVE TOPS THE UPPER RIDGE AND NUDGES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION ON THAT
WEAK FRONT NEAR ROUTE 10 SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO I PUT LOW CHANCE POPS
THERE.

THE 500 HEIGHTS...1000/850 THICKNESS TOOLS...1000/925 MB THICKNESS
TOOLS ALL TELL ME HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE  MID 80S THIS WEEKEND...IF
NOT WARMER. I INCREASED THE HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREE SAT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

CURRENTLY (1745Z) WE HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES BUT THE CLOUDS ARE ERODING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE POLAR
JET SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. I AM EXPECTING MOST OF THE TAF
SITES TO BECOME VFR (MOSTLY CLEAR) BY 23Z. THE LAN AND JXN ARE
DEEPER INTO THE LOW CLOUDS...THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER THERE.
EVEN THERE BY 01Z OR SO THEY TOO SHOULD BECOME VFR.

THE GLITCH IN THE FORECAST IS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE NAM
AND LESS SO THE RAP MODEL THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK IN
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST (OFF LAKE HURON) LATER TONIGHT.
I...LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AM NOT SURE ABOUT THIS SO FOR NOW
I HAVE THE CLOUDS COMING BACK INTO LAN AND BTL LATER TONIGHT.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY 15Z OR SO THURSDAY AS THE
POLAR JET FINALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WE WILL BE TAKING DOWN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE COME
DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THESE HEADLINES TO EXPIRE ON TIME THIS
AFTERNOON.

IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WE WILL NOT SEE ANY APPRECIABLE WIND AFTER THIS
AFTERNOON...THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS AT OR BELOW 15
KNOTS MOST OF IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A NARROW SWATH OF ABOUT 1 INCH OF RAIN FELL NEAR AND SOUTH OF
LANSING ON TUESDAY. THIS WATER WILL COLLECT IN THE SYCAMORE CREEK
AND UPPER GRAND RIVER BASIN. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES NEAR HOLT AND
IONIA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES
NEAR COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO AND NEW RICHMOND CONTINUE... AND RIVER
LEVELS THERE ARE SLOWLY RECEDING. ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ848-
     849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 011925
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
MILD SUMMER WEATHER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
STORM ON SATURDAY ALONG U.S.-10 AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TRIES TO
MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE ONLY ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS DEALING
WITH THE CLOUD TRENDS INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS
FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

WE HAVE SEEN THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA
INTO MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE CLOUDS VS. THE STRATUS THAT WAS IN
PLACE EARLIER THIS MORNING. IT IS TAKING A LITTLE WHILE LONGER
ACROSS THE NW WHERE THE COOLER AIR OFF OF THE LAKE IS NOT ALLOWING
THE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT AS MUCH AS ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

WE ARE EXPECTING THAT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO IS THAT IT WILL TAKE
UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW FOR THE CLEARING LINE
ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN TO MOVE THROUGH THERE.

AFTER THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT THIS EVENING...WE ARE LOOKING AT A
PERIOD OF INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL REMAIN ALMOST
OVERHEAD BEING DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN RIDGE AND WITH THE GULF
MOISTURE BEING BOTTLED UP SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

I AM LOOKING AT THE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY NEAR
ROUTE 10 WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH IS THE
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT COMES THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. I
EXPECT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT. TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS
AN ISSUE THOUGH.

THE MAIN ISSUE IS A REX BLOCK OVER THE BERING SEA LATE THIS WEEK
THAT FORCES MOST OF THE JET ENERGY OVER THE TOP WITH MEANS IT HAS TO
GO THROUGH THE ARCTIC TO GET HERE. THAT RESULTS IN A STRONGLY
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT CREATES A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.  GIVEN THE SIZE OF THESE SYSTEM AND THAT WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT A REX BLOCK...I COULD SEE SLOWING DOWN EVEN MORE THAT
WE ARE NOW SHOWING. IN ANY EVENT THIS WILL BE POLAR AIR MIXING WITH
TROPICAL AIR...WHEN THIS DOES FINALLY HAPPEN I WOULD EXPECT STRONG
STORMS.

A WEAK WAVE TOPS THE UPPER RIDGE AND NUDGES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION ON THAT
WEAK FRONT NEAR ROUTE 10 SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO I PUT LOW CHANCE POPS
THERE.

THE 500 HEIGHTS...1000/850 THICKNESS TOOLS...1000/925 MB THICKNESS
TOOLS ALL TELL ME HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE  MID 80S THIS WEEKEND...IF
NOT WARMER. I INCREASED THE HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREE SAT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

CURRENTLY (1745Z) WE HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES BUT THE CLOUDS ARE ERODING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE POLAR
JET SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. I AM EXPECTING MOST OF THE TAF
SITES TO BECOME VFR (MOSTLY CLEAR) BY 23Z. THE LAN AND JXN ARE
DEEPER INTO THE LOW CLOUDS...THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER THERE.
EVEN THERE BY 01Z OR SO THEY TOO SHOULD BECOME VFR.

THE GLITCH IN THE FORECAST IS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE NAM
AND LESS SO THE RAP MODEL THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK IN
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST (OFF LAKE HURON) LATER TONIGHT.
I...LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AM NOT SURE ABOUT THIS SO FOR NOW
I HAVE THE CLOUDS COMING BACK INTO LAN AND BTL LATER TONIGHT.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY 15Z OR SO THURSDAY AS THE
POLAR JET FINALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WE WILL BE TAKING DOWN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE COME
DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THESE HEADLINES TO EXPIRE ON TIME THIS
AFTERNOON.

IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WE WILL NOT SEE ANY APPRECIABLE WIND AFTER THIS
AFTERNOON...THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS AT OR BELOW 15
KNOTS MOST OF IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A NARROW SWATH OF ABOUT 1 INCH OF RAIN FELL NEAR AND SOUTH OF
LANSING ON TUESDAY. THIS WATER WILL COLLECT IN THE SYCAMORE CREEK
AND UPPER GRAND RIVER BASIN. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES NEAR HOLT AND
IONIA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES
NEAR COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO AND NEW RICHMOND CONTINUE... AND RIVER
LEVELS THERE ARE SLOWLY RECEDING. ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ848-
     849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KGRR 011752
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
152 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TRY TO IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 70 WILL BE WELL BELOW THE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE UP AROUND 80. A DRY FORECAST
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND ON TAP. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. A LOW STRATUS DECK IS
PLAGUING MOST OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE
SW CORNER...AND ALONG THE U.S.-131 CORRIDOR NORTH OF KGRR. WE
EXPECT THAT THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND AS HEATING
TAKES PLACE AND EARLY JULY SUN ANGLE SHOULD DO A NUMBER ON THE
MOISTURE. STRONG INVERSION AROUND 5K FEET WILL CAP ANY VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF CU THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO PCPN EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE IS CLOUD COVER. AS
OF 300AM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPILLED SOUTH THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. NORTH FLOW HAS PUSHED THE CLOUD COVER ALL THE WAY TO
NEAR A SOUTH HAVEN TO KALAMAZOO LINE. ALL OTHER AREAS ARE SOCKED IN
WITH LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY BELOW 1000FT.

THE NAM 950MB MOISTURE PROG HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS STICKING AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
SEEN INLAND...BUT THE NAM INDICATES LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON NEAR THE
LAKE ESPECIALLY FROM HOLLAND SOUTH ALL DAY. IN GENERAL HAVE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST GOING...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE CLOUDS TRY TO HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

CLOUDS WILL DICTATE HIGHS FOR TODAY OBVIOUSLY AND WENT AROUND 70 IN
MOST AREAS. A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH A WIND OFF THE
WATER.

THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LOW LEVEL RH MODEL PROGS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY
TRY TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT TO COVER THIS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HIGHS NUDGE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ON THURSDAY AND
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY.

BOTTOM LINE...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ONLY PROBLEM WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY...WHICH MAY TRY TO STRETCH
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAA TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
THAT WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
LATE MONDAY.

SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRENDS
INDICATE A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST
OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. LOWERED POPS ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY UNTIL FROPA OCCURS. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

CURRENTLY (1745Z) WE HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES BUT THE CLOUDS ARE ERODING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE POLAR
JET SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. I AM EXPECTING MOST OF THE TAF
SITES TO BECOME VFR (MOSTLY CLEAR) BY 23Z. THE LAN AND JXN ARE
DEEPER INTO THE LOW CLOUDS...THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER THERE.
EVEN THERE BY 01Z OR SO THEY TOO SHOULD BECOME VFR.

THE GLITCH IN THE FORECAST IS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE NAM
AND LESS SO THE RAP MODEL THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK IN
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST (OFF LAKE HURON) LATER TONIGHT.
I...LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AM NOT SURE ABOUT THIS SO FOR NOW
I HAVE THE CLOUDS COMING BACK INTO LAN AND BTL LATER TONIGHT.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY 15Z OR SO THURSDAY AS THE
POLAR JET FINALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NRN TWO MARINE ZONES
AND ALSO A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR THE ADJOINING COUNTIES. A
SHIP OB OFF OF LITTLE SABLE POINT REPORTING 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG
WITH THE BUOY OFF OF LUDINGTON REPORTING ALMOST 5 FT WAVES
NECESSITATED THE HEADLINES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EXPOSURE OFF
OF A LONG FETCH AND MAYBE SOME SHORELINE CONVERGENCE WITH THE NNW
FLOW.

THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE WORST CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AROUND RIGHT
NOW UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. AN IMPROVING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED
FOR THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A NARROW SWATH OF ABOUT 1 INCH OF RAIN FELL NEAR AND SOUTH OF
LANSING ON TUESDAY. THIS WATER WILL COLLECT IN THE SYCAMORE CREEK
AND UPPER GRAND RIVER BASIN. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES NEAR HOLT AND
IONIA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES
NEAR COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO AND NEW RICHMOND CONTINUE... AND RIVER
LEVELS THERE ARE SLOWLY RECEDING. ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ848-
     849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 011752
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
152 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TRY TO IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 70 WILL BE WELL BELOW THE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE UP AROUND 80. A DRY FORECAST
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND ON TAP. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. A LOW STRATUS DECK IS
PLAGUING MOST OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE
SW CORNER...AND ALONG THE U.S.-131 CORRIDOR NORTH OF KGRR. WE
EXPECT THAT THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND AS HEATING
TAKES PLACE AND EARLY JULY SUN ANGLE SHOULD DO A NUMBER ON THE
MOISTURE. STRONG INVERSION AROUND 5K FEET WILL CAP ANY VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF CU THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO PCPN EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE IS CLOUD COVER. AS
OF 300AM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPILLED SOUTH THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. NORTH FLOW HAS PUSHED THE CLOUD COVER ALL THE WAY TO
NEAR A SOUTH HAVEN TO KALAMAZOO LINE. ALL OTHER AREAS ARE SOCKED IN
WITH LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY BELOW 1000FT.

THE NAM 950MB MOISTURE PROG HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS STICKING AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
SEEN INLAND...BUT THE NAM INDICATES LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON NEAR THE
LAKE ESPECIALLY FROM HOLLAND SOUTH ALL DAY. IN GENERAL HAVE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST GOING...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE CLOUDS TRY TO HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

CLOUDS WILL DICTATE HIGHS FOR TODAY OBVIOUSLY AND WENT AROUND 70 IN
MOST AREAS. A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH A WIND OFF THE
WATER.

THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LOW LEVEL RH MODEL PROGS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY
TRY TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT TO COVER THIS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HIGHS NUDGE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ON THURSDAY AND
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY.

BOTTOM LINE...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ONLY PROBLEM WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY...WHICH MAY TRY TO STRETCH
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAA TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
THAT WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
LATE MONDAY.

SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRENDS
INDICATE A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST
OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. LOWERED POPS ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY UNTIL FROPA OCCURS. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

CURRENTLY (1745Z) WE HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES BUT THE CLOUDS ARE ERODING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE POLAR
JET SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. I AM EXPECTING MOST OF THE TAF
SITES TO BECOME VFR (MOSTLY CLEAR) BY 23Z. THE LAN AND JXN ARE
DEEPER INTO THE LOW CLOUDS...THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER THERE.
EVEN THERE BY 01Z OR SO THEY TOO SHOULD BECOME VFR.

THE GLITCH IN THE FORECAST IS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE NAM
AND LESS SO THE RAP MODEL THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK IN
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST (OFF LAKE HURON) LATER TONIGHT.
I...LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AM NOT SURE ABOUT THIS SO FOR NOW
I HAVE THE CLOUDS COMING BACK INTO LAN AND BTL LATER TONIGHT.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY 15Z OR SO THURSDAY AS THE
POLAR JET FINALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NRN TWO MARINE ZONES
AND ALSO A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR THE ADJOINING COUNTIES. A
SHIP OB OFF OF LITTLE SABLE POINT REPORTING 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG
WITH THE BUOY OFF OF LUDINGTON REPORTING ALMOST 5 FT WAVES
NECESSITATED THE HEADLINES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EXPOSURE OFF
OF A LONG FETCH AND MAYBE SOME SHORELINE CONVERGENCE WITH THE NNW
FLOW.

THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE WORST CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AROUND RIGHT
NOW UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. AN IMPROVING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED
FOR THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A NARROW SWATH OF ABOUT 1 INCH OF RAIN FELL NEAR AND SOUTH OF
LANSING ON TUESDAY. THIS WATER WILL COLLECT IN THE SYCAMORE CREEK
AND UPPER GRAND RIVER BASIN. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES NEAR HOLT AND
IONIA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES
NEAR COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO AND NEW RICHMOND CONTINUE... AND RIVER
LEVELS THERE ARE SLOWLY RECEDING. ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ848-
     849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KGRR 011612
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TRY TO IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 70 WILL BE WELL BELOW THE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE UP AROUND 80. A DRY FORECAST
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND ON TAP. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. A LOW STRATUS DECK IS
PLAGUING MOST OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE
SW CORNER...AND ALONG THE U.S.-131 CORRIDOR NORTH OF KGRR. WE
EXPECT THAT THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND AS HEATING
TAKES PLACE AND EARLY JULY SUN ANGLE SHOULD DO A NUMBER ON THE
MOISTURE. STRONG INVERSION AROUND 5K FEET WILL CAP ANY VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF CU THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO PCPN EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE IS CLOUD COVER. AS
OF 300AM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPILLED SOUTH THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. NORTH FLOW HAS PUSHED THE CLOUD COVER ALL THE WAY TO
NEAR A SOUTH HAVEN TO KALAMAZOO LINE. ALL OTHER AREAS ARE SOCKED IN
WITH LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY BELOW 1000FT.

THE NAM 950MB MOISTURE PROG HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS STICKING AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
SEEN INLAND...BUT THE NAM INDICATES LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON NEAR THE
LAKE ESPECIALLY FROM HOLLAND SOUTH ALL DAY. IN GENERAL HAVE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST GOING...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE CLOUDS TRY TO HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

CLOUDS WILL DICTATE HIGHS FOR TODAY OBVIOUSLY AND WENT AROUND 70 IN
MOST AREAS. A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH A WIND OFF THE
WATER.

THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LOW LEVEL RH MODEL PROGS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY
TRY TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT TO COVER THIS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HIGHS NUDGE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ON THURSDAY AND
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY.

BOTTOM LINE...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ONLY PROBLEM WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY...WHICH MAY TRY TO STRETCH
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAA TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
THAT WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
LATE MONDAY.

SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRENDS
INDICATE A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST
OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. LOWERED POPS ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY UNTIL FROPA OCCURS. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS
BETWEEN 500FT AND 900FT. FOG HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD WITH SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES ALONG INTERSTATE 94.

THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS BY MIDDAY WITH CONDITIONS TRYING TO TREND VFR MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. BOTTOM LINE...A SLOW LIFTING OF THE CEILINGS AS
WELL AS SOME EROSION OF THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY INLAND.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT HAVE VFR CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE MODEL DATA THAT SUGGEST
THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY HANG ON OR REAPPEAR TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT
HAVE MAINTAINED A VFR FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NRN TWO MARINE ZONES
AND ALSO A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR THE ADJOINING COUNTIES. A
SHIP OB OFF OF LITTLE SABLE POINT REPORTING 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG
WITH THE BUOY OFF OF LUDINGTON REPORTING ALMOST 5 FT WAVES
NECESSITATED THE HEADLINES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EXPOSURE OFF
OF A LONG FETCH AND MAYBE SOME SHORELINE CONVERGENCE WITH THE NNW
FLOW.

THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE WORST CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AROUND RIGHT
NOW UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. AN IMPROVING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED
FOR THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A NARROW SWATH OF ABOUT 1 INCH OF RAIN FELL NEAR AND SOUTH OF
LANSING ON TUESDAY. THIS WATER WILL COLLECT IN THE SYCAMORE CREEK
AND UPPER GRAND RIVER BASIN. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES NEAR HOLT AND
IONIA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES
NEAR COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO AND NEW RICHMOND CONTINUE... AND RIVER
LEVELS THERE ARE SLOWLY RECEDING. ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ848-
     849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 011612
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TRY TO IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 70 WILL BE WELL BELOW THE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE UP AROUND 80. A DRY FORECAST
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND ON TAP. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. A LOW STRATUS DECK IS
PLAGUING MOST OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE
SW CORNER...AND ALONG THE U.S.-131 CORRIDOR NORTH OF KGRR. WE
EXPECT THAT THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND AS HEATING
TAKES PLACE AND EARLY JULY SUN ANGLE SHOULD DO A NUMBER ON THE
MOISTURE. STRONG INVERSION AROUND 5K FEET WILL CAP ANY VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF CU THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO PCPN EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE IS CLOUD COVER. AS
OF 300AM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPILLED SOUTH THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. NORTH FLOW HAS PUSHED THE CLOUD COVER ALL THE WAY TO
NEAR A SOUTH HAVEN TO KALAMAZOO LINE. ALL OTHER AREAS ARE SOCKED IN
WITH LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY BELOW 1000FT.

THE NAM 950MB MOISTURE PROG HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS STICKING AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
SEEN INLAND...BUT THE NAM INDICATES LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON NEAR THE
LAKE ESPECIALLY FROM HOLLAND SOUTH ALL DAY. IN GENERAL HAVE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST GOING...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE CLOUDS TRY TO HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

CLOUDS WILL DICTATE HIGHS FOR TODAY OBVIOUSLY AND WENT AROUND 70 IN
MOST AREAS. A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH A WIND OFF THE
WATER.

THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LOW LEVEL RH MODEL PROGS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY
TRY TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT TO COVER THIS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HIGHS NUDGE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ON THURSDAY AND
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY.

BOTTOM LINE...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ONLY PROBLEM WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY...WHICH MAY TRY TO STRETCH
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAA TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
THAT WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
LATE MONDAY.

SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRENDS
INDICATE A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST
OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. LOWERED POPS ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY UNTIL FROPA OCCURS. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS
BETWEEN 500FT AND 900FT. FOG HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD WITH SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES ALONG INTERSTATE 94.

THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS BY MIDDAY WITH CONDITIONS TRYING TO TREND VFR MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. BOTTOM LINE...A SLOW LIFTING OF THE CEILINGS AS
WELL AS SOME EROSION OF THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY INLAND.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT HAVE VFR CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE MODEL DATA THAT SUGGEST
THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY HANG ON OR REAPPEAR TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT
HAVE MAINTAINED A VFR FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NRN TWO MARINE ZONES
AND ALSO A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR THE ADJOINING COUNTIES. A
SHIP OB OFF OF LITTLE SABLE POINT REPORTING 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG
WITH THE BUOY OFF OF LUDINGTON REPORTING ALMOST 5 FT WAVES
NECESSITATED THE HEADLINES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EXPOSURE OFF
OF A LONG FETCH AND MAYBE SOME SHORELINE CONVERGENCE WITH THE NNW
FLOW.

THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE WORST CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AROUND RIGHT
NOW UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. AN IMPROVING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED
FOR THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A NARROW SWATH OF ABOUT 1 INCH OF RAIN FELL NEAR AND SOUTH OF
LANSING ON TUESDAY. THIS WATER WILL COLLECT IN THE SYCAMORE CREEK
AND UPPER GRAND RIVER BASIN. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES NEAR HOLT AND
IONIA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES
NEAR COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO AND NEW RICHMOND CONTINUE... AND RIVER
LEVELS THERE ARE SLOWLY RECEDING. ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ848-
     849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KGRR 011512
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1112 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TRY TO IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 70 WILL BE WELL BELOW THE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE UP AROUND 80. A DRY FORECAST
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND ON TAP. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. A LOW STRATUS DECK IS
PLAGUING MOST OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE
SW CORNER...AND ALONG THE U.S.-131 CORRIDOR NORTH OF KGRR. WE
EXPECT THAT THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND AS HEATING
TAKES PLACE AND EARLY JULY SUN ANGLE SHOULD DO A NUMBER ON THE
MOISTURE. STRONG INVERSION AROUND 5K FEET WILL CAP ANY VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF CU THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO PCPN EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE IS CLOUD COVER. AS
OF 300AM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPILLED SOUTH THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. NORTH FLOW HAS PUSHED THE CLOUD COVER ALL THE WAY TO
NEAR A SOUTH HAVEN TO KALAMAZOO LINE. ALL OTHER AREAS ARE SOCKED IN
WITH LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY BELOW 1000FT.

THE NAM 950MB MOISTURE PROG HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS STICKING AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
SEEN INLAND...BUT THE NAM INDICATES LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON NEAR THE
LAKE ESPECIALLY FROM HOLLAND SOUTH ALL DAY. IN GENERAL HAVE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST GOING...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE CLOUDS TRY TO HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

CLOUDS WILL DICTATE HIGHS FOR TODAY OBVIOUSLY AND WENT AROUND 70 IN
MOST AREAS. A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH A WIND OFF THE
WATER.

THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LOW LEVEL RH MODEL PROGS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY
TRY TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT TO COVER THIS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HIGHS NUDGE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ON THURSDAY AND
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY.

BOTTOM LINE...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ONLY PROBLEM WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY...WHICH MAY TRY TO STRETCH
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED
JUL 1 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAA TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
THAT WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
LATE MONDAY.

SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRENDS
INDICATE A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST
OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. LOWERED POPS ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY UNTIL FROPA OCCURS. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS
BETWEEN 500FT AND 900FT. FOG HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD WITH SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES ALONG INTERSTATE 94.

THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS BY MIDDAY WITH CONDITIONS TRYING TO TREND VFR MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. BOTTOM LINE...A SLOW LIFTING OF THE CEILINGS AS
WELL AS SOME EROSION OF THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY INLAND.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT HAVE VFR CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE MODEL DATA THAT SUGGEST
THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY HANG ON OR REAPPEAR TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT
HAVE MAINTAINED A VFR FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NRN TWO MARINE ZONES
AND ALSO A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR THE ADJOINING COUNTIES. A
SHIP OB OFF OF LITTLE SABLE POINT REPORTING 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG
WITH THE BUOY OFF OF LUDINGTON REPORTING ALMOST 5 FT WAVES
NECESSITATED THE HEADLINES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EXPOSURE OFF
OF A LONG FETCH AND MAYBE SOME SHORELINE CONVERGENCE WITH THE NNW
FLOW.

THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE WORST CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AROUND RIGHT
NOW UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. AN IMPROVING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED
FOR THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR IONIA... COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO...
AND NEW RICHMOND... AS RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES... BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD END UP
BEING WELL UNDER A HALF INCH FOR MOST DRAINAGE BASINS. LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON RIVERS IS EXPECTED FROM THE RAIN TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ848-
     849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ




000
FXUS63 KGRR 011512
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1112 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TRY TO IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 70 WILL BE WELL BELOW THE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE UP AROUND 80. A DRY FORECAST
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND ON TAP. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. A LOW STRATUS DECK IS
PLAGUING MOST OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE
SW CORNER...AND ALONG THE U.S.-131 CORRIDOR NORTH OF KGRR. WE
EXPECT THAT THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND AS HEATING
TAKES PLACE AND EARLY JULY SUN ANGLE SHOULD DO A NUMBER ON THE
MOISTURE. STRONG INVERSION AROUND 5K FEET WILL CAP ANY VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF CU THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO PCPN EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE IS CLOUD COVER. AS
OF 300AM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPILLED SOUTH THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. NORTH FLOW HAS PUSHED THE CLOUD COVER ALL THE WAY TO
NEAR A SOUTH HAVEN TO KALAMAZOO LINE. ALL OTHER AREAS ARE SOCKED IN
WITH LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY BELOW 1000FT.

THE NAM 950MB MOISTURE PROG HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS STICKING AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
SEEN INLAND...BUT THE NAM INDICATES LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON NEAR THE
LAKE ESPECIALLY FROM HOLLAND SOUTH ALL DAY. IN GENERAL HAVE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST GOING...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE CLOUDS TRY TO HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

CLOUDS WILL DICTATE HIGHS FOR TODAY OBVIOUSLY AND WENT AROUND 70 IN
MOST AREAS. A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH A WIND OFF THE
WATER.

THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LOW LEVEL RH MODEL PROGS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY
TRY TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT TO COVER THIS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HIGHS NUDGE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ON THURSDAY AND
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY.

BOTTOM LINE...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ONLY PROBLEM WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY...WHICH MAY TRY TO STRETCH
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED
JUL 1 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAA TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
THAT WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
LATE MONDAY.

SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRENDS
INDICATE A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST
OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. LOWERED POPS ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY UNTIL FROPA OCCURS. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS
BETWEEN 500FT AND 900FT. FOG HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD WITH SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES ALONG INTERSTATE 94.

THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS BY MIDDAY WITH CONDITIONS TRYING TO TREND VFR MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. BOTTOM LINE...A SLOW LIFTING OF THE CEILINGS AS
WELL AS SOME EROSION OF THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY INLAND.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT HAVE VFR CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE MODEL DATA THAT SUGGEST
THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY HANG ON OR REAPPEAR TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT
HAVE MAINTAINED A VFR FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NRN TWO MARINE ZONES
AND ALSO A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR THE ADJOINING COUNTIES. A
SHIP OB OFF OF LITTLE SABLE POINT REPORTING 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG
WITH THE BUOY OFF OF LUDINGTON REPORTING ALMOST 5 FT WAVES
NECESSITATED THE HEADLINES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EXPOSURE OFF
OF A LONG FETCH AND MAYBE SOME SHORELINE CONVERGENCE WITH THE NNW
FLOW.

THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE WORST CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AROUND RIGHT
NOW UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. AN IMPROVING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED
FOR THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR IONIA... COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO...
AND NEW RICHMOND... AS RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES... BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD END UP
BEING WELL UNDER A HALF INCH FOR MOST DRAINAGE BASINS. LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON RIVERS IS EXPECTED FROM THE RAIN TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ848-
     849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ





000
FXUS63 KGRR 011143
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
743 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TRY TO IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 70 WILL BE WELL BELOW THE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE UP AROUND 80. A DRY FORECAST
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND ON TAP. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE IS CLOUD COVER. AS
OF 300AM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPILLED SOUTH THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. NORTH FLOW HAS PUSHED THE CLOUD COVER ALL THE WAY TO
NEAR A SOUTH HAVEN TO KALAMAZOO LINE. ALL OTHER AREAS ARE SOCKED IN
WITH LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY BELOW 1000FT.

THE NAM 950MB MOISTURE PROG HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS STICKING AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
SEEN INLAND...BUT THE NAM INDICATES LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON NEAR THE
LAKE ESPECIALLY FROM HOLLAND SOUTH ALL DAY. IN GENERAL HAVE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST GOING...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE CLOUDS TRY TO HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

CLOUDS WILL DICTATE HIGHS FOR TODAY OBVIOUSLY AND WENT AROUND 70 IN
MOST AREAS. A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH A WIND OFF THE
WATER.

THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LOW LEVEL RH MODEL PROGS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY
TRY TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT TO COVER THIS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HIGHS NUDGE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ON THURSDAY AND
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY.

BOTTOM LINE...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ONLY PROBLEM WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY...WHICH MAY TRY TO STRETCH
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED
JUL 1 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAA TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
THAT WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
LATE MONDAY.

SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRENDS
INDICATE A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST
OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. LOWERED POPS ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY UNTIL FROPA OCCURS. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS
BETWEEN 500FT AND 900FT. FOG HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD WITH SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES ALONG INTERSTATE 94.

THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS BY MIDDAY WITH CONDITIONS TRYING TO TREND VFR MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. BOTTOM LINE...A SLOW LIFTING OF THE CEILINGS AS
WELL AS SOME EROSION OF THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY INLAND.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT HAVE VFR CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE MODEL DATA THAT SUGGEST
THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY HANG ON OR REAPPEAR TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT
HAVE MAINTAINED A VFR FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WINDS AND WAVES ROSE UP OVERNIGHT AND WERE IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE FOR A TIME. CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED JUST A BIT THIS
MORNING WITH MORE OF A MODERATE SWIM RISK AND 2 TO 4 FOOTERS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE
NORTH FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING BEFORE SLACKING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY/BEACH
HAZARDS LEVELS FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FLOW REGIME IN
PLACE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR IONIA... COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO...
AND NEW RICHMOND... AS RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES... BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD END UP
BEING WELL UNDER A HALF INCH FOR MOST DRAINAGE BASINS. LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON RIVERS IS EXPECTED FROM THE RAIN TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 011143
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
743 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TRY TO IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 70 WILL BE WELL BELOW THE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE UP AROUND 80. A DRY FORECAST
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND ON TAP. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE IS CLOUD COVER. AS
OF 300AM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPILLED SOUTH THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. NORTH FLOW HAS PUSHED THE CLOUD COVER ALL THE WAY TO
NEAR A SOUTH HAVEN TO KALAMAZOO LINE. ALL OTHER AREAS ARE SOCKED IN
WITH LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY BELOW 1000FT.

THE NAM 950MB MOISTURE PROG HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS STICKING AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
SEEN INLAND...BUT THE NAM INDICATES LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON NEAR THE
LAKE ESPECIALLY FROM HOLLAND SOUTH ALL DAY. IN GENERAL HAVE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST GOING...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE CLOUDS TRY TO HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

CLOUDS WILL DICTATE HIGHS FOR TODAY OBVIOUSLY AND WENT AROUND 70 IN
MOST AREAS. A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH A WIND OFF THE
WATER.

THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LOW LEVEL RH MODEL PROGS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY
TRY TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT TO COVER THIS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HIGHS NUDGE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ON THURSDAY AND
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY.

BOTTOM LINE...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ONLY PROBLEM WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY...WHICH MAY TRY TO STRETCH
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED
JUL 1 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAA TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
THAT WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
LATE MONDAY.

SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRENDS
INDICATE A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST
OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. LOWERED POPS ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY UNTIL FROPA OCCURS. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS
BETWEEN 500FT AND 900FT. FOG HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD WITH SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES ALONG INTERSTATE 94.

THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS BY MIDDAY WITH CONDITIONS TRYING TO TREND VFR MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. BOTTOM LINE...A SLOW LIFTING OF THE CEILINGS AS
WELL AS SOME EROSION OF THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY INLAND.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT HAVE VFR CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE MODEL DATA THAT SUGGEST
THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY HANG ON OR REAPPEAR TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT
HAVE MAINTAINED A VFR FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WINDS AND WAVES ROSE UP OVERNIGHT AND WERE IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE FOR A TIME. CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED JUST A BIT THIS
MORNING WITH MORE OF A MODERATE SWIM RISK AND 2 TO 4 FOOTERS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE
NORTH FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING BEFORE SLACKING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY/BEACH
HAZARDS LEVELS FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FLOW REGIME IN
PLACE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR IONIA... COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO...
AND NEW RICHMOND... AS RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES... BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD END UP
BEING WELL UNDER A HALF INCH FOR MOST DRAINAGE BASINS. LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON RIVERS IS EXPECTED FROM THE RAIN TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 011143
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
743 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TRY TO IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 70 WILL BE WELL BELOW THE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE UP AROUND 80. A DRY FORECAST
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND ON TAP. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE IS CLOUD COVER. AS
OF 300AM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPILLED SOUTH THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. NORTH FLOW HAS PUSHED THE CLOUD COVER ALL THE WAY TO
NEAR A SOUTH HAVEN TO KALAMAZOO LINE. ALL OTHER AREAS ARE SOCKED IN
WITH LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY BELOW 1000FT.

THE NAM 950MB MOISTURE PROG HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS STICKING AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
SEEN INLAND...BUT THE NAM INDICATES LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON NEAR THE
LAKE ESPECIALLY FROM HOLLAND SOUTH ALL DAY. IN GENERAL HAVE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST GOING...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE CLOUDS TRY TO HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

CLOUDS WILL DICTATE HIGHS FOR TODAY OBVIOUSLY AND WENT AROUND 70 IN
MOST AREAS. A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH A WIND OFF THE
WATER.

THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LOW LEVEL RH MODEL PROGS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY
TRY TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT TO COVER THIS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HIGHS NUDGE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ON THURSDAY AND
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY.

BOTTOM LINE...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ONLY PROBLEM WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY...WHICH MAY TRY TO STRETCH
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED
JUL 1 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAA TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
THAT WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
LATE MONDAY.

SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRENDS
INDICATE A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST
OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. LOWERED POPS ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY UNTIL FROPA OCCURS. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS
BETWEEN 500FT AND 900FT. FOG HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD WITH SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES ALONG INTERSTATE 94.

THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS BY MIDDAY WITH CONDITIONS TRYING TO TREND VFR MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. BOTTOM LINE...A SLOW LIFTING OF THE CEILINGS AS
WELL AS SOME EROSION OF THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY INLAND.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT HAVE VFR CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE MODEL DATA THAT SUGGEST
THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY HANG ON OR REAPPEAR TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT
HAVE MAINTAINED A VFR FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WINDS AND WAVES ROSE UP OVERNIGHT AND WERE IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE FOR A TIME. CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED JUST A BIT THIS
MORNING WITH MORE OF A MODERATE SWIM RISK AND 2 TO 4 FOOTERS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE
NORTH FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING BEFORE SLACKING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY/BEACH
HAZARDS LEVELS FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FLOW REGIME IN
PLACE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR IONIA... COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO...
AND NEW RICHMOND... AS RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES... BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD END UP
BEING WELL UNDER A HALF INCH FOR MOST DRAINAGE BASINS. LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON RIVERS IS EXPECTED FROM THE RAIN TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 010728
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TRY TO IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 70 WILL BE WELL BELOW THE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE UP AROUND 80. A DRY FORECAST
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND ON TAP. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE IS CLOUD COVER. AS
OF 300AM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPILLED SOUTH THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. NORTH FLOW HAS PUSHED THE CLOUD COVER ALL THE WAY TO
NEAR A SOUTH HAVEN TO KALAMAZOO LINE. ALL OTHER AREAS ARE SOCKED IN
WITH LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY BELOW 1000FT.

THE NAM 950MB MOISTURE PROG HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS STICKING AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
SEEN INLAND...BUT THE NAM INDICATES LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON NEAR THE
LAKE ESPECIALLY FROM HOLLAND SOUTH ALL DAY. IN GENERAL HAVE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST GOING...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE CLOUDS TRY TO HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

CLOUDS WILL DICTATE HIGHS FOR TODAY OBVIOUSLY AND WENT AROUND 70 IN
MOST AREAS. A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH A WIND OFF THE
WATER.

THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LOW LEVEL RH MODEL PROGS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY
TRY TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT TO COVER THIS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HIGHS NUDGE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ON THURSDAY AND
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY.

BOTTOM LINE...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ONLY PROBLEM WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY...WHICH MAY TRY TO STRETCH
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED
JUL 1 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAA TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
THAT WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
LATE MONDAY.

SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRENDS
INDICATE A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST
OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. LOWERED POPS ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY UNTIL FROPA OCCURS. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT DUE TO FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THEN CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WINDS AND WAVES ROSE UP OVERNIGHT AND WERE IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE FOR A TIME. CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED JUST A BIT THIS
MORNING WITH MORE OF A MODERATE SWIM RISK AND 2 TO 4 FOOTERS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE
NORTH FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING BEFORE SLACKING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY/BEACH
HAZARDS LEVELS FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FLOW REGIME IN
PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR IONIA... COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO...
AND NEW RICHMOND... AS RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES... BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD END UP
BEING WELL UNDER A HALF INCH FOR MOST DRAINAGE BASINS. LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON RIVERS IS EXPECTED FROM THE RAIN TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 010408
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1205 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIR WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY TO THE LOWER
80S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY DEAL WITH
CLOUD TRENDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION DENOTING THE CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. AS EXPECTED WE/VE SEEN AN UPTICK IN
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY
WX IS EXPECTED. RH PROGS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK PARTLY CLOUDY AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 70
TOMORROW AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 45 TO 55.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

IT WOULD SEEM OUR 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LITTLE THREAT FOR RAIN UNTIL
MONDAY.

WHILE IT IS TRUE THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A
RIDGE IN THE WEST IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF
JULY  (SEE CSFV2) WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE COMING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND SO THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY REAL ISSUE I SEE AT THIS POINT IS JUST HOW FAST THE NEXT
COLD FRONT GETS TO MICHIGAN. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO TOP
THE WESTERN RIDGE DURING THIS WEEKEND. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW
QUICKLY DOES THIS SYSTEM DIG INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN SLOWER. GIVEN
THIS IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW TOPPING AN UPPER RIDGE...SLOWER MAY BE
BETTER. STILL THIS IF NEARLY A WEEK OUT SO FOR NOW I WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS KNOWING THIS MAY BE DELAYED WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

ONE OTHER MINOR ISSUE IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES... WE ARE GOING FOR
HIGHS NEAR 80 OVER THE WEEKEND... GIVEN THE PATTERN WE WILL BE IN
AND THE FORECAST 1000/850 THICKNESS.... I COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID
80S AS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. WE WILL WATCH FOR THAT TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT DUE TO FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THEN CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHEST TONIGHT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
REACHED...BUT IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. AS SUCH WE WILL NOT ISSUE A
ADVISORY. TWO TO FOUR FOOT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE THE
HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND WAVES DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR IONIA... COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO...
AND NEW RICHMOND... AS RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES... BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD END UP
BEING WELL UNDER A HALF INCH FOR MOST DRAINAGE BASINS. LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON RIVERS IS EXPECTED FROM THE RAIN TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 010408
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1205 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIR WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY TO THE LOWER
80S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY DEAL WITH
CLOUD TRENDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION DENOTING THE CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. AS EXPECTED WE/VE SEEN AN UPTICK IN
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY
WX IS EXPECTED. RH PROGS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK PARTLY CLOUDY AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 70
TOMORROW AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 45 TO 55.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

IT WOULD SEEM OUR 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LITTLE THREAT FOR RAIN UNTIL
MONDAY.

WHILE IT IS TRUE THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A
RIDGE IN THE WEST IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF
JULY  (SEE CSFV2) WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE COMING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND SO THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY REAL ISSUE I SEE AT THIS POINT IS JUST HOW FAST THE NEXT
COLD FRONT GETS TO MICHIGAN. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO TOP
THE WESTERN RIDGE DURING THIS WEEKEND. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW
QUICKLY DOES THIS SYSTEM DIG INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN SLOWER. GIVEN
THIS IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW TOPPING AN UPPER RIDGE...SLOWER MAY BE
BETTER. STILL THIS IF NEARLY A WEEK OUT SO FOR NOW I WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS KNOWING THIS MAY BE DELAYED WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

ONE OTHER MINOR ISSUE IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES... WE ARE GOING FOR
HIGHS NEAR 80 OVER THE WEEKEND... GIVEN THE PATTERN WE WILL BE IN
AND THE FORECAST 1000/850 THICKNESS.... I COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID
80S AS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. WE WILL WATCH FOR THAT TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT DUE TO FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THEN CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHEST TONIGHT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
REACHED...BUT IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. AS SUCH WE WILL NOT ISSUE A
ADVISORY. TWO TO FOUR FOOT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE THE
HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND WAVES DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR IONIA... COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO...
AND NEW RICHMOND... AS RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES... BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD END UP
BEING WELL UNDER A HALF INCH FOR MOST DRAINAGE BASINS. LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON RIVERS IS EXPECTED FROM THE RAIN TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04





000
FXUS63 KGRR 302351
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
751 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIR WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY TO THE LOWER
80S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY DEAL WITH
CLOUD TRENDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION DENOTING THE CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. AS EXPECTED WE/VE SEEN AN UPTICK IN
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY
WX IS EXPECTED. RH PROGS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK PARTLY CLOUDY AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 70
TOMORROW AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 45 TO 55.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

IT WOULD SEEM OUR 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LITTLE THREAT FOR RAIN UNTIL
MONDAY.

WHILE IT IS TRUE THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A
RIDGE IN THE WEST IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF
JULY  (SEE CSFV2) WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE COMING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND SO THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY REAL ISSUE I SEE AT THIS POINT IS JUST HOW FAST THE NEXT
COLD FRONT GETS TO MICHIGAN. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO TOP
THE WESTERN RIDGE DURING THIS WEEKEND. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW
QUICKLY DOES THIS SYSTEM DIG INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN SLOWER. GIVEN
THIS IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW TOPPING AN UPPER RIDGE...SLOWER MAY BE
BETTER. STILL THIS IF NEARLY A WEEK OUT SO FOR NOW I WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS KNOWING THIS MAY BE DELAYED WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

ONE OTHER MINOR ISSUE IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES... WE ARE GOING FOR
HIGHS NEAR 80 OVER THE WEEKEND... GIVEN THE PATTERN WE WILL BE IN
AND THE FORECAST 1000/850 THICKNESS.... I COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID
80S AS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. WE WILL WATCH FOR THAT TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AROUND 06Z WHEN STRATUS WILL RETURN WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET AGL. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHWEST AOB 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHEST TONIGHT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
REACHED...BUT IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. AS SUCH WE WILL NOT ISSUE A
ADVISORY. TWO TO FOUR FOOT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE THE
HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND WAVES DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR IONIA... COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO...
AND NEW RICHMOND... AS RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES... BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD END UP
BEING WELL UNDER A HALF INCH FOR MOST DRAINAGE BASINS. LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON RIVERS IS EXPECTED FROM THE RAIN TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04





000
FXUS63 KGRR 302351
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
751 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIR WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY TO THE LOWER
80S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY DEAL WITH
CLOUD TRENDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION DENOTING THE CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. AS EXPECTED WE/VE SEEN AN UPTICK IN
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY
WX IS EXPECTED. RH PROGS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK PARTLY CLOUDY AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 70
TOMORROW AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 45 TO 55.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

IT WOULD SEEM OUR 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LITTLE THREAT FOR RAIN UNTIL
MONDAY.

WHILE IT IS TRUE THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A
RIDGE IN THE WEST IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF
JULY  (SEE CSFV2) WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE COMING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND SO THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY REAL ISSUE I SEE AT THIS POINT IS JUST HOW FAST THE NEXT
COLD FRONT GETS TO MICHIGAN. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO TOP
THE WESTERN RIDGE DURING THIS WEEKEND. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW
QUICKLY DOES THIS SYSTEM DIG INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN SLOWER. GIVEN
THIS IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW TOPPING AN UPPER RIDGE...SLOWER MAY BE
BETTER. STILL THIS IF NEARLY A WEEK OUT SO FOR NOW I WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS KNOWING THIS MAY BE DELAYED WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

ONE OTHER MINOR ISSUE IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES... WE ARE GOING FOR
HIGHS NEAR 80 OVER THE WEEKEND... GIVEN THE PATTERN WE WILL BE IN
AND THE FORECAST 1000/850 THICKNESS.... I COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID
80S AS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. WE WILL WATCH FOR THAT TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AROUND 06Z WHEN STRATUS WILL RETURN WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET AGL. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHWEST AOB 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHEST TONIGHT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
REACHED...BUT IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. AS SUCH WE WILL NOT ISSUE A
ADVISORY. TWO TO FOUR FOOT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE THE
HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND WAVES DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR IONIA... COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO...
AND NEW RICHMOND... AS RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES... BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD END UP
BEING WELL UNDER A HALF INCH FOR MOST DRAINAGE BASINS. LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON RIVERS IS EXPECTED FROM THE RAIN TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 301906
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIR WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY TO THE LOWER
80S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY DEAL WITH
CLOUD TRENDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION DENOTING THE CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. AS EXPECTED WE/VE SEEN AN UPTICK IN
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY
WX IS EXPECTED. RH PROGS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK PARTLY CLOUDY AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 70
TOMORROW AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 45 TO 55.




.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

IT WOULD SEEM OUR 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LITTLE THREAT FOR RAIN UNTIL
MONDAY.

WHILE IT IS TRUE THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A
RIDGE IN THE WEST IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF
JULY  (SEE CSFV2) WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE COMING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND SO THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY REAL ISSUE I SEE AT THIS POINT IS JUST HOW FAST THE NEXT
COLD FRONT GETS TO MICHIGAN. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO TOP
THE WESTERN RIDGE DURING THIS WEEKEND. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW
QUICKLY DOES THIS SYSTEM DIG INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN SLOWER. GIVEN
THIS IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW TOPPING AN UPPER RIDGE...SLOWER MAY BE
BETTER. STILL THIS IF NEARLY A WEEK OUT SO FOR NOW I WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS KNOWING THIS MAY BE DELAYED WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

ONE OTHER MINOR ISSUE IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES... WE ARE GOING FOR
HIGHS NEAR 80 OVER THE WEEKEND... GIVEN THE PATTERN WE WILL BE IN
AND THE FORECAST 1000/850 THICKNESS.... I COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID
80S AS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. WE WILL WATCH FOR THAT TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXTENSIVE IFR WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COVER THE WESTERN
TAF SITES WHICH ARE NEAR OR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MKG BEING BY
THE LAKE SHORE HAS BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN FOG INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS AND LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE OTHER TAF SITES AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THEM DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. LANSING AND JACKSON MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...TILL AROUND 21Z OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY CLEAR
BY MID EVENING BRING VFR TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF SITES BUT AS
A SECOND AREA OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT THE LOW CLOUDS
RETURN... ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE AT LEAST IFR FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHEST TONIGHT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
REACHED...BUT IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. AS SUCH WE WILL NOT ISSUE A
ADVISORY. TWO TO FOUR FOOT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE THE
HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND WAVES DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR IONIA... COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO...
AND NEW RICHMOND... AS RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES... BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD END UP
BEING WELL UNDER A HALF INCH FOR MOST DRAINAGE BASINS. LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON RIVERS IS EXPECTED FROM THE RAIN TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 301653
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1253 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY AS THEY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND A FRONT.
JUST LIKE ON MONDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT TOWARDS LANSING AND JACKSON ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY DRY. A PLEASANT AND DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE FOURTH WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR
THE FOURTH AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY
AND THE PREVALENCE OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY...THEY ACTUALLY LOOK A BIT
BETTER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN. THE UPPER WAVE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS EVEN A
SURFACE REFLECTION WITH A LOW CENTERED OVER THE U.P AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH OVER EASTERN WISC AND ILL. THE TROUGH AND UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. RAP GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES WILL RISE
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING A DIURNAL FLARE ONCE AGAIN TO THE SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH IS
COMMON WITH SUMMER UPPER TROUGHS OF THIS MAGNITUDE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHTNING.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF/PRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS
SUNSET. MODELS ARE TRYING TO SUGGEST LOWER CLOUDS SETTLING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME
AND ITS VERY PLAUSIBLE WE SEE THIS CLOUD COVER EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. GFS 950-900MB LAYER MOISTURE BEARS THIS OUT NICELY.

SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TOWARDS LAN/JXN ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SOLIDLY STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. A COOL NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER WED NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO UNDERGO A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND AND REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXTENSIVE IFR WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COVER THE WESTERN
TAF SITES WHICH ARE NEAR OR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MKG BEING BY
THE LAKE SHORE HAS BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN FOG INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS AND LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE OTHER TAF SITES AS THE COLF FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THEM DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. LANING AND JACKSON MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...TILL AROUND 21Z OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BREIFLY CLEAR
BY MID EVEING BRING VFR TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF SITES BUT AS
A SECOND AREA OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT THE LOW CLOUDS
RETURN... ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE AT LEAST IFR FRIDAY MORNIG.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO THE BRIEF TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA AND AN
ADVANCING HIGH FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. WINDS WILL NUDGE INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND WAVES WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FEEL WE WILL STAY
BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS WELL AS BHS CRITERIA. BIGGEST TIME FRAME OF
CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER TONIGHT
EXPECTING WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN AT SOME POINTS IN THE GRAND
AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS. RIVER LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FALLING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... BUT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LOW AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE LARGER RIVERS. NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 301653
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1253 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY AS THEY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND A FRONT.
JUST LIKE ON MONDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT TOWARDS LANSING AND JACKSON ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY DRY. A PLEASANT AND DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE FOURTH WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR
THE FOURTH AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY
AND THE PREVALENCE OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY...THEY ACTUALLY LOOK A BIT
BETTER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN. THE UPPER WAVE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS EVEN A
SURFACE REFLECTION WITH A LOW CENTERED OVER THE U.P AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH OVER EASTERN WISC AND ILL. THE TROUGH AND UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. RAP GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES WILL RISE
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING A DIURNAL FLARE ONCE AGAIN TO THE SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH IS
COMMON WITH SUMMER UPPER TROUGHS OF THIS MAGNITUDE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHTNING.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF/PRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS
SUNSET. MODELS ARE TRYING TO SUGGEST LOWER CLOUDS SETTLING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME
AND ITS VERY PLAUSIBLE WE SEE THIS CLOUD COVER EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. GFS 950-900MB LAYER MOISTURE BEARS THIS OUT NICELY.

SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TOWARDS LAN/JXN ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SOLIDLY STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. A COOL NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER WED NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO UNDERGO A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND AND REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXTENSIVE IFR WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COVER THE WESTERN
TAF SITES WHICH ARE NEAR OR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MKG BEING BY
THE LAKE SHORE HAS BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN FOG INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS AND LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE OTHER TAF SITES AS THE COLF FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THEM DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. LANING AND JACKSON MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...TILL AROUND 21Z OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BREIFLY CLEAR
BY MID EVEING BRING VFR TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF SITES BUT AS
A SECOND AREA OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT THE LOW CLOUDS
RETURN... ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE AT LEAST IFR FRIDAY MORNIG.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO THE BRIEF TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA AND AN
ADVANCING HIGH FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. WINDS WILL NUDGE INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND WAVES WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FEEL WE WILL STAY
BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS WELL AS BHS CRITERIA. BIGGEST TIME FRAME OF
CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER TONIGHT
EXPECTING WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN AT SOME POINTS IN THE GRAND
AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS. RIVER LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FALLING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... BUT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LOW AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE LARGER RIVERS. NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 301157
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
757 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY AS THEY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND A FRONT.
JUST LIKE ON MONDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT TOWARDS LANSING AND JACKSON ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY DRY. A PLEASANT AND DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE FOURTH WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR
THE FOURTH AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY
AND THE PREVALENCE OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY...THEY ACTUALLY LOOK A BIT
BETTER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN. THE UPPER WAVE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS EVEN A
SURFACE REFLECTION WITH A LOW CENTERED OVER THE U.P AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH OVER EASTERN WISC AND ILL. THE TROUGH AND UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. RAP GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES WILL RISE
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING A DIURNAL FLARE ONCE AGAIN TO THE SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH IS
COMMON WITH SUMMER UPPER TROUGHS OF THIS MAGNITUDE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHTNING.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF/PRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS
SUNSET. MODELS ARE TRYING TO SUGGEST LOWER CLOUDS SETTLING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME
AND ITS VERY PLAUSIBLE WE SEE THIS CLOUD COVER EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. GFS 950-900MB LAYER MOISTURE BEARS THIS OUT NICELY.

SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TOWARDS LAN/JXN ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SOLIDLY STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. A COOL NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER WED NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO UNDERGO A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND AND REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 756 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES
TODAY. HAVE VCSH WORDING IN MOST PLACES THIS MORNING TRENDING TO
VCTS WORDING THIS AFTERNOON. NOT SURE COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO GO PREDOMINATE SHOWER OR STORM WORDING AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE.
HAVE PRECIP ENDING AT 02Z AT ALL SITES.

CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT FROM MVFR THIS MORNING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP BACK DOWN TO MVFR TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING BIG ISSUES WITH
VISIBILITY AND IN FACT HAVE VFR VSBYS THROUGHOUT THE TAF. VSBYS
WILL DROP AT LEAST INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TOWARD THE LAKE AT KMKG.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO THE BRIEF TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA AND AN
ADVANCING HIGH FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. WINDS WILL NUDGE INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND WAVES WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FEEL WE WILL STAY
BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS WELL AS BHS CRITERIA. BIGGEST TIME FRAME OF
CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER TONIGHT
EXPECTING WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN AT SOME POINTS IN THE GRAND
AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS. RIVER LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FALLING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... BUT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LOW AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE LARGER RIVERS. NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 301157
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
757 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY AS THEY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND A FRONT.
JUST LIKE ON MONDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT TOWARDS LANSING AND JACKSON ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY DRY. A PLEASANT AND DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE FOURTH WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR
THE FOURTH AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY
AND THE PREVALENCE OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY...THEY ACTUALLY LOOK A BIT
BETTER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN. THE UPPER WAVE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS EVEN A
SURFACE REFLECTION WITH A LOW CENTERED OVER THE U.P AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH OVER EASTERN WISC AND ILL. THE TROUGH AND UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. RAP GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES WILL RISE
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING A DIURNAL FLARE ONCE AGAIN TO THE SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH IS
COMMON WITH SUMMER UPPER TROUGHS OF THIS MAGNITUDE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHTNING.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF/PRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS
SUNSET. MODELS ARE TRYING TO SUGGEST LOWER CLOUDS SETTLING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME
AND ITS VERY PLAUSIBLE WE SEE THIS CLOUD COVER EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. GFS 950-900MB LAYER MOISTURE BEARS THIS OUT NICELY.

SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TOWARDS LAN/JXN ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SOLIDLY STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. A COOL NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER WED NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO UNDERGO A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND AND REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 756 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES
TODAY. HAVE VCSH WORDING IN MOST PLACES THIS MORNING TRENDING TO
VCTS WORDING THIS AFTERNOON. NOT SURE COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO GO PREDOMINATE SHOWER OR STORM WORDING AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE.
HAVE PRECIP ENDING AT 02Z AT ALL SITES.

CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT FROM MVFR THIS MORNING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP BACK DOWN TO MVFR TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING BIG ISSUES WITH
VISIBILITY AND IN FACT HAVE VFR VSBYS THROUGHOUT THE TAF. VSBYS
WILL DROP AT LEAST INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TOWARD THE LAKE AT KMKG.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO THE BRIEF TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA AND AN
ADVANCING HIGH FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. WINDS WILL NUDGE INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND WAVES WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FEEL WE WILL STAY
BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS WELL AS BHS CRITERIA. BIGGEST TIME FRAME OF
CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER TONIGHT
EXPECTING WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN AT SOME POINTS IN THE GRAND
AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS. RIVER LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FALLING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... BUT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LOW AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE LARGER RIVERS. NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 300730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY AS THEY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND A FRONT.
JUST LIKE ON MONDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT TOWARDS LANSING AND JACKSON ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY DRY. A PLEASANT AND DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE FOURTH WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR
THE FOURTH AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY
AND THE PREVALENCE OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY...THEY ACTUALLY LOOK A BIT
BETTER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN. THE UPPER WAVE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS EVEN A
SURFACE REFLECTION WITH A LOW CENTERED OVER THE U.P AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH OVER EASTERN WISC AND ILL. THE TROUGH AND UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. RAP GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES WILL RISE
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING A DIURNAL FLARE ONCE AGAIN TO THE SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH IS
COMMON WITH SUMMER UPPER TROUGHS OF THIS MAGNITUDE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHTNING.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF/PRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS
SUNSET. MODELS ARE TRYING TO SUGGEST LOWER CLOUDS SETTLING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME
AND ITS VERY PLAUSIBLE WE SEE THIS CLOUD COVER EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. GFS 950-900MB LAYER MOISTURE BEARS THIS OUT NICELY.

SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TOWARDS LAN/JXN ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SOLIDLY STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. A COOL NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER WED NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO UNDERGO A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND AND REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO PRIMARILY
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. STRONGEST STORMS
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL... BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS... LIGHTNING AND
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND COULD IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BUT WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO THE BRIEF TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA AND AN
ADVANCING HIGH FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. WINDS WILL NUDGE INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND WAVES WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FEEL WE WILL STAY
BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS WELL AS BHS CRITERIA. BIGGEST TIME FRAME OF
CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER TONIGHT
EXPECTING WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN AT SOME POINTS IN THE GRAND
AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS. RIVER LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FALLING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... BUT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LOW AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE LARGER RIVERS. NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 300730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY AS THEY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND A FRONT.
JUST LIKE ON MONDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT TOWARDS LANSING AND JACKSON ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY DRY. A PLEASANT AND DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE FOURTH WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR
THE FOURTH AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY
AND THE PREVALENCE OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY...THEY ACTUALLY LOOK A BIT
BETTER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN. THE UPPER WAVE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS EVEN A
SURFACE REFLECTION WITH A LOW CENTERED OVER THE U.P AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH OVER EASTERN WISC AND ILL. THE TROUGH AND UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. RAP GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES WILL RISE
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING A DIURNAL FLARE ONCE AGAIN TO THE SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH IS
COMMON WITH SUMMER UPPER TROUGHS OF THIS MAGNITUDE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHTNING.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF/PRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS
SUNSET. MODELS ARE TRYING TO SUGGEST LOWER CLOUDS SETTLING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME
AND ITS VERY PLAUSIBLE WE SEE THIS CLOUD COVER EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. GFS 950-900MB LAYER MOISTURE BEARS THIS OUT NICELY.

SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TOWARDS LAN/JXN ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SOLIDLY STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. A COOL NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER WED NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO UNDERGO A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND AND REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO PRIMARILY
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. STRONGEST STORMS
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL... BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS... LIGHTNING AND
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND COULD IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BUT WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO THE BRIEF TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA AND AN
ADVANCING HIGH FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. WINDS WILL NUDGE INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND WAVES WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FEEL WE WILL STAY
BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS WELL AS BHS CRITERIA. BIGGEST TIME FRAME OF
CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER TONIGHT
EXPECTING WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN AT SOME POINTS IN THE GRAND
AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS. RIVER LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FALLING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... BUT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LOW AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE LARGER RIVERS. NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 300730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY AS THEY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND A FRONT.
JUST LIKE ON MONDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT TOWARDS LANSING AND JACKSON ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY DRY. A PLEASANT AND DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE FOURTH WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR
THE FOURTH AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY
AND THE PREVALENCE OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY...THEY ACTUALLY LOOK A BIT
BETTER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN. THE UPPER WAVE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS EVEN A
SURFACE REFLECTION WITH A LOW CENTERED OVER THE U.P AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH OVER EASTERN WISC AND ILL. THE TROUGH AND UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. RAP GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES WILL RISE
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING A DIURNAL FLARE ONCE AGAIN TO THE SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH IS
COMMON WITH SUMMER UPPER TROUGHS OF THIS MAGNITUDE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHTNING.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF/PRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS
SUNSET. MODELS ARE TRYING TO SUGGEST LOWER CLOUDS SETTLING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME
AND ITS VERY PLAUSIBLE WE SEE THIS CLOUD COVER EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. GFS 950-900MB LAYER MOISTURE BEARS THIS OUT NICELY.

SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TOWARDS LAN/JXN ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SOLIDLY STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. A COOL NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER WED NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO UNDERGO A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND AND REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO PRIMARILY
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. STRONGEST STORMS
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL... BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS... LIGHTNING AND
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND COULD IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BUT WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO THE BRIEF TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA AND AN
ADVANCING HIGH FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. WINDS WILL NUDGE INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND WAVES WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FEEL WE WILL STAY
BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS WELL AS BHS CRITERIA. BIGGEST TIME FRAME OF
CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER TONIGHT
EXPECTING WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN AT SOME POINTS IN THE GRAND
AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS. RIVER LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FALLING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... BUT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LOW AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE LARGER RIVERS. NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 300730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY AS THEY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND A FRONT.
JUST LIKE ON MONDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT TOWARDS LANSING AND JACKSON ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY DRY. A PLEASANT AND DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE FOURTH WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR
THE FOURTH AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY
AND THE PREVALENCE OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY...THEY ACTUALLY LOOK A BIT
BETTER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN. THE UPPER WAVE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS EVEN A
SURFACE REFLECTION WITH A LOW CENTERED OVER THE U.P AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH OVER EASTERN WISC AND ILL. THE TROUGH AND UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. RAP GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES WILL RISE
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING A DIURNAL FLARE ONCE AGAIN TO THE SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH IS
COMMON WITH SUMMER UPPER TROUGHS OF THIS MAGNITUDE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHTNING.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF/PRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS
SUNSET. MODELS ARE TRYING TO SUGGEST LOWER CLOUDS SETTLING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME
AND ITS VERY PLAUSIBLE WE SEE THIS CLOUD COVER EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. GFS 950-900MB LAYER MOISTURE BEARS THIS OUT NICELY.

SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TOWARDS LAN/JXN ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SOLIDLY STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. A COOL NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER WED NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO UNDERGO A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND AND REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO PRIMARILY
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. STRONGEST STORMS
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL... BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS... LIGHTNING AND
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND COULD IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BUT WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO THE BRIEF TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA AND AN
ADVANCING HIGH FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. WINDS WILL NUDGE INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND WAVES WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FEEL WE WILL STAY
BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS WELL AS BHS CRITERIA. BIGGEST TIME FRAME OF
CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER TONIGHT
EXPECTING WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN AT SOME POINTS IN THE GRAND
AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS. RIVER LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FALLING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... BUT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LOW AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE LARGER RIVERS. NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 300359
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1158 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
WEDNESDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THEN
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY... AFTER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK AND WARM TO AROUND NORMAL ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST OF THE CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WEAK WAVES WILL BE FLOWING MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING UP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY AS A
WAVE COMES THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD ENHANCE THE
INSTABILITY. EVEN THEN... SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LIGHTNING... SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE AND DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE 50S. THAT MEANS HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE
RELATIVE TO SUMMER NORMS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT COMBINATION USUALLY
RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON CU AND MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHTS. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME
UPWELLING OVER THE NEAR SHORE...SO WATER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CHILLY OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WAVES WILL BE LOW
DUE TO WEAK WINDS UNDER THE HIGH.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO PRIMARILY
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. STRONGEST STORMS
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL... BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS... LIGHTNING AND
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND COULD IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BUT WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WE COULD SEE 2 TO 3 FOOT WAVES ON
LAKE MICHIGAN... AS NORTH FLOW PICKS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
EXPECTING WAVES BELOW 2 FEET WITH LIMITED CONCERNS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN AT SOME POINTS IN THE GRAND
AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS. RIVER LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FALLING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... BUT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LOW AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE LARGER RIVERS. NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...63
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...63




000
FXUS63 KGRR 300359
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1158 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
WEDNESDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THEN
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY... AFTER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK AND WARM TO AROUND NORMAL ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST OF THE CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WEAK WAVES WILL BE FLOWING MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING UP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY AS A
WAVE COMES THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD ENHANCE THE
INSTABILITY. EVEN THEN... SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LIGHTNING... SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE AND DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE 50S. THAT MEANS HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE
RELATIVE TO SUMMER NORMS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT COMBINATION USUALLY
RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON CU AND MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHTS. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME
UPWELLING OVER THE NEAR SHORE...SO WATER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CHILLY OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WAVES WILL BE LOW
DUE TO WEAK WINDS UNDER THE HIGH.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO PRIMARILY
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. STRONGEST STORMS
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL... BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS... LIGHTNING AND
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND COULD IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BUT WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WE COULD SEE 2 TO 3 FOOT WAVES ON
LAKE MICHIGAN... AS NORTH FLOW PICKS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
EXPECTING WAVES BELOW 2 FEET WITH LIMITED CONCERNS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN AT SOME POINTS IN THE GRAND
AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS. RIVER LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FALLING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... BUT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LOW AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE LARGER RIVERS. NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...63
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...63





000
FXUS63 KGRR 292340
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
740 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
WEDNESDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THEN
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY... AFTER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK AND WARM TO AROUND NORMAL ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST OF THE CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WEAK WAVES WILL BE FLOWING MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING UP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY AS A
WAVE COMES THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD ENHANCE THE
INSTABILITY. EVEN THEN... SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LIGHTNING... SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE AND DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE 50S. THAT MEANS HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE
RELATIVE TO SUMMER NORMS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT COMBINATION USUALLY
RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON CU AND MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHTS. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME
UPWELLING OVER THE NEAR SHORE...SO WATER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CHILLY OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WAVES WILL BE LOW
DUE TO WEAK WINDS UNDER THE HIGH.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z ACROSS ALL
SOUTHWEST LOWER MI TAF SITES DUE TO FOG. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OUT
THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TONIGHT. EXISTING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM 07Z-12Z
TUESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 10Z. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 14Z THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PEAK HEATING DURING THE DAYTIME WILL PROVIDE ENERGY FOR
STORMS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE STATE. STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND COULD IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES. HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL
WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WE COULD SEE 2 TO 3 FOOT WAVES ON
LAKE MICHIGAN... AS NORTH FLOW PICKS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
EXPECTING WAVES BELOW 2 FEET WITH LIMITED CONCERNS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN AT SOME POINTS IN THE GRAND
AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS. RIVER LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FALLING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... BUT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LOW AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE LARGER RIVERS. NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...63
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...63




000
FXUS63 KGRR 292340
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
740 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
WEDNESDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THEN
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY... AFTER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK AND WARM TO AROUND NORMAL ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST OF THE CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WEAK WAVES WILL BE FLOWING MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING UP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY AS A
WAVE COMES THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD ENHANCE THE
INSTABILITY. EVEN THEN... SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LIGHTNING... SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE AND DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE 50S. THAT MEANS HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE
RELATIVE TO SUMMER NORMS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT COMBINATION USUALLY
RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON CU AND MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHTS. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME
UPWELLING OVER THE NEAR SHORE...SO WATER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CHILLY OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WAVES WILL BE LOW
DUE TO WEAK WINDS UNDER THE HIGH.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z ACROSS ALL
SOUTHWEST LOWER MI TAF SITES DUE TO FOG. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OUT
THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TONIGHT. EXISTING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM 07Z-12Z
TUESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 10Z. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 14Z THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PEAK HEATING DURING THE DAYTIME WILL PROVIDE ENERGY FOR
STORMS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE STATE. STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND COULD IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES. HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL
WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WE COULD SEE 2 TO 3 FOOT WAVES ON
LAKE MICHIGAN... AS NORTH FLOW PICKS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
EXPECTING WAVES BELOW 2 FEET WITH LIMITED CONCERNS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN AT SOME POINTS IN THE GRAND
AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS. RIVER LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FALLING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... BUT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LOW AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE LARGER RIVERS. NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...63
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...63




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291921
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
WEDNESDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THEN
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY... AFTER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK AND WARM TO AROUND NORMAL ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST OF THE CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WEAK WAVES WILL BE FLOWING MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING UP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY AS A
WAVE COMES THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD ENHANCE THE
INSTABILITY. EVEN THEN... SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LIGHTNING... SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE AND DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE 50S. THAT MEANS HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE
RELATIVE TO SUMMER NORMS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT COMBINATION USUALLY
RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON CU AND MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHTS. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME
UPWELLING OVER THE NEAR SHORE...SO WATER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CHILLY OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WAVES WILL BE LOW
DUE TO WEAK WINDS UNDER THE HIGH.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

AS EXPECTED...SCT SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING. MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON.

MVFR/IFR FOG/CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FROM RECENT RAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WE COULD SEE 2 TO 3 FOOT WAVES ON
LAKE MICHIGAN... AS NORTH FLOW PICKS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
EXPECTING WAVES BELOW 2 FEET WITH LIMITED CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN AT SOME POINTS IN THE GRAND
AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS. RIVER LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FALLING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... BUT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LOW AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE LARGER RIVERS. NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...63
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...63




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291821
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
221 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

A BIT OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK AS WE SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THEY
WILL BE DRIVEN SOMEWHAT BY THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGHS INTO MID
WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WAS ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
ANOTHER ONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. TODAY/S
SHORTWAVE IS SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE
TUESDAY/S IS CLEARLY NOTED OVER MANITOBA IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

EACH SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH A DIURNAL FLARE TO THE PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. THE
GFS SHOULD CAPE VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE
TODAY AND ON TUESDAY AND RISING INTO THE 500-1000 RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHER POPS 30-60 PCT DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS WITH
CHANCES DROPPING TO ZERO-20 PCT OVERNIGHT. RIDGING IS TRYING TO
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY SO THINK CHANCES ARE A LITTLE BIT LESS THEN.

OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINS...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BUBBLE UP EACH DAY. THINKING TUESDAY IS REALLY OUR
BEST CHANCE AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SHOULD CORRESPOND TO NEAR PEAK
HEATING. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR VALUES ARE PRETTY LIGHT/LOW...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL POSSIBLY AND
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUD COVER AND SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE
IN THE WEEK.

AT THIS TIME AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT MAINLY DRY WX CAN BE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING AT THE
SFC BUILDS IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AND REACH THE LOWER 80S BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

AS EXPECTED...SCT SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING. MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON.

MVFR/IFR FOG/CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FROM RECENT RAINS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

OVERALL LIMITED MARINE CONCERNS WITH A FAIRLY WEAK WIND REGIME IN
PLACE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WAVES SHOULD GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT IT DOES APPEAR NORTH WINDS
KICK UP TOWARDS 15 KNOTS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME 2-3
FOOTERS AT THE PEAK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN AT SOME POINTS IN THE GRAND
AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS. RIVER LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FALLING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... BUT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LOW AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE LARGER RIVERS. NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291821
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
221 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

A BIT OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK AS WE SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THEY
WILL BE DRIVEN SOMEWHAT BY THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGHS INTO MID
WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WAS ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
ANOTHER ONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. TODAY/S
SHORTWAVE IS SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE
TUESDAY/S IS CLEARLY NOTED OVER MANITOBA IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

EACH SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH A DIURNAL FLARE TO THE PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. THE
GFS SHOULD CAPE VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE
TODAY AND ON TUESDAY AND RISING INTO THE 500-1000 RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHER POPS 30-60 PCT DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS WITH
CHANCES DROPPING TO ZERO-20 PCT OVERNIGHT. RIDGING IS TRYING TO
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY SO THINK CHANCES ARE A LITTLE BIT LESS THEN.

OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINS...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BUBBLE UP EACH DAY. THINKING TUESDAY IS REALLY OUR
BEST CHANCE AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SHOULD CORRESPOND TO NEAR PEAK
HEATING. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR VALUES ARE PRETTY LIGHT/LOW...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL POSSIBLY AND
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUD COVER AND SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE
IN THE WEEK.

AT THIS TIME AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT MAINLY DRY WX CAN BE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING AT THE
SFC BUILDS IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AND REACH THE LOWER 80S BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

AS EXPECTED...SCT SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING. MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON.

MVFR/IFR FOG/CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FROM RECENT RAINS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

OVERALL LIMITED MARINE CONCERNS WITH A FAIRLY WEAK WIND REGIME IN
PLACE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WAVES SHOULD GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT IT DOES APPEAR NORTH WINDS
KICK UP TOWARDS 15 KNOTS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME 2-3
FOOTERS AT THE PEAK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN AT SOME POINTS IN THE GRAND
AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS. RIVER LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FALLING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... BUT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LOW AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE LARGER RIVERS. NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 291740
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
140 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

A BIT OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK AS WE SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THEY
WILL BE DRIVEN SOMEWHAT BY THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGHS INTO MID
WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WAS ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
ANOTHER ONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. TODAY/S
SHORTWAVE IS SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE
TUESDAY/S IS CLEARLY NOTED OVER MANITOBA IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

EACH SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH A DIURNAL FLARE TO THE PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. THE
GFS SHOULD CAPE VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE
TODAY AND ON TUESDAY AND RISING INTO THE 500-1000 RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHER POPS 30-60 PCT DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS WITH
CHANCES DROPPING TO ZERO-20 PCT OVERNIGHT. RIDGING IS TRYING TO
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY SO THINK CHANCES ARE A LITTLE BIT LESS THEN.

OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINS...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BUBBLE UP EACH DAY. THINKING TUESDAY IS REALLY OUR
BEST CHANCE AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SHOULD CORRESPOND TO NEAR PEAK
HEATING. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR VALUES ARE PRETTY LIGHT/LOW...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL POSSIBLY AND
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUD COVER AND SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE
IN THE WEEK.

AT THIS TIME AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT MAINLY DRY WX CAN BE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING AT THE
SFC BUILDS IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AND REACH THE LOWER 80S BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

AS EXPECTED...SCT SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING. MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON.

MVFR/IFR FOG/CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FROM RECENT RAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

OVERALL LIMITED MARINE CONCERNS WITH A FAIRLY WEAK WIND REGIME IN
PLACE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WAVES SHOULD GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT IT DOES APPEAR NORTH WINDS
KICK UP TOWARDS 15 KNOTS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME 2-3
FOOTERS AT THE PEAK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN THE GRAND AND KALAMAZOO
BASINS AS RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN SOME LOCATIONS. BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 291740
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
140 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

A BIT OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK AS WE SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THEY
WILL BE DRIVEN SOMEWHAT BY THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGHS INTO MID
WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WAS ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
ANOTHER ONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. TODAY/S
SHORTWAVE IS SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE
TUESDAY/S IS CLEARLY NOTED OVER MANITOBA IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

EACH SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH A DIURNAL FLARE TO THE PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. THE
GFS SHOULD CAPE VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE
TODAY AND ON TUESDAY AND RISING INTO THE 500-1000 RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHER POPS 30-60 PCT DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS WITH
CHANCES DROPPING TO ZERO-20 PCT OVERNIGHT. RIDGING IS TRYING TO
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY SO THINK CHANCES ARE A LITTLE BIT LESS THEN.

OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINS...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BUBBLE UP EACH DAY. THINKING TUESDAY IS REALLY OUR
BEST CHANCE AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SHOULD CORRESPOND TO NEAR PEAK
HEATING. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR VALUES ARE PRETTY LIGHT/LOW...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL POSSIBLY AND
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUD COVER AND SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE
IN THE WEEK.

AT THIS TIME AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT MAINLY DRY WX CAN BE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING AT THE
SFC BUILDS IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AND REACH THE LOWER 80S BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

AS EXPECTED...SCT SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING. MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON.

MVFR/IFR FOG/CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FROM RECENT RAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

OVERALL LIMITED MARINE CONCERNS WITH A FAIRLY WEAK WIND REGIME IN
PLACE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WAVES SHOULD GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT IT DOES APPEAR NORTH WINDS
KICK UP TOWARDS 15 KNOTS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME 2-3
FOOTERS AT THE PEAK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN THE GRAND AND KALAMAZOO
BASINS AS RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN SOME LOCATIONS. BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291150
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
750 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

A BIT OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK AS WE SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THEY
WILL BE DRIVEN SOMEWHAT BY THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGHS INTO MID
WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WAS ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
ANOTHER ONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. TODAY/S
SHORTWAVE IS SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE
TUESDAY/S IS CLEARLY NOTED OVER MANITOBA IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

EACH SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH A DIURNAL FLARE TO THE PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. THE
GFS SHOULD CAPE VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE
TODAY AND ON TUESDAY AND RISING INTO THE 500-1000 RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHER POPS 30-60 PCT DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS WITH
CHANCES DROPPING TO ZERO-20 PCT OVERNIGHT. RIDGING IS TRYING TO
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY SO THINK CHANCES ARE A LITTLE BIT LESS THEN.

OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINS...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BUBBLE UP EACH DAY. THINKING TUESDAY IS REALLY OUR
BEST CHANCE AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SHOULD CORRESPOND TO NEAR PEAK
HEATING. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR VALUES ARE PRETTY LIGHT/LOW...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL POSSIBLY AND
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUD COVER AND SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE
IN THE WEEK.

AT THIS TIME AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT MAINLY DRY WX CAN BE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING AT THE
SFC BUILDS IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AND REACH THE LOWER 80S BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. CEILINGS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY FROM 8000FT AND ABOVE THIS
MORNING TO AROUND 3500 FT THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONSIDERED INCLUDING THUNDER AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THOUGH.

TONIGHT...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR WITH SOME FOG AS
WELL. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO GO IFR OR LOWER
OVERNIGHT...BUT HELD OFF ON GOING THAT LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

OVERALL LIMITED MARINE CONCERNS WITH A FAIRLY WEAK WIND REGIME IN
PLACE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WAVES SHOULD GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT IT DOES APPEAR NORTH WINDS
KICK UP TOWARDS 15 KNOTS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME 2-3
FOOTERS AT THE PEAK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN THE GRAND AND KALAMAZOO
BASINS AS RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN SOME LOCATIONS. BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 291150
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
750 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

A BIT OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK AS WE SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THEY
WILL BE DRIVEN SOMEWHAT BY THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGHS INTO MID
WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WAS ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
ANOTHER ONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. TODAY/S
SHORTWAVE IS SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE
TUESDAY/S IS CLEARLY NOTED OVER MANITOBA IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

EACH SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH A DIURNAL FLARE TO THE PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. THE
GFS SHOULD CAPE VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE
TODAY AND ON TUESDAY AND RISING INTO THE 500-1000 RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHER POPS 30-60 PCT DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS WITH
CHANCES DROPPING TO ZERO-20 PCT OVERNIGHT. RIDGING IS TRYING TO
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY SO THINK CHANCES ARE A LITTLE BIT LESS THEN.

OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINS...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BUBBLE UP EACH DAY. THINKING TUESDAY IS REALLY OUR
BEST CHANCE AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SHOULD CORRESPOND TO NEAR PEAK
HEATING. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR VALUES ARE PRETTY LIGHT/LOW...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL POSSIBLY AND
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUD COVER AND SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE
IN THE WEEK.

AT THIS TIME AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT MAINLY DRY WX CAN BE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING AT THE
SFC BUILDS IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AND REACH THE LOWER 80S BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. CEILINGS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY FROM 8000FT AND ABOVE THIS
MORNING TO AROUND 3500 FT THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONSIDERED INCLUDING THUNDER AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THOUGH.

TONIGHT...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR WITH SOME FOG AS
WELL. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO GO IFR OR LOWER
OVERNIGHT...BUT HELD OFF ON GOING THAT LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

OVERALL LIMITED MARINE CONCERNS WITH A FAIRLY WEAK WIND REGIME IN
PLACE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WAVES SHOULD GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT IT DOES APPEAR NORTH WINDS
KICK UP TOWARDS 15 KNOTS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME 2-3
FOOTERS AT THE PEAK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN THE GRAND AND KALAMAZOO
BASINS AS RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN SOME LOCATIONS. BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 290729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

A BIT OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK AS WE SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THEY
WILL BE DRIVEN SOMEWHAT BY THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGHS INTO MID
WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WAS ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
ANOTHER ONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. TODAY/S
SHORTWAVE IS SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE
TUESDAY/S IS CLEARLY NOTED OVER MANITOBA IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

EACH SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH A DIURNAL FLARE TO THE PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. THE
GFS SHOULD CAPE VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE
TODAY AND ON TUESDAY AND RISING INTO THE 500-1000 RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHER POPS 30-60 PCT DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS WITH
CHANCES DROPPING TO ZERO-20 PCT OVERNIGHT. RIDGING IS TRYING TO
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY SO THINK CHANCES ARE A LITTLE BIT LESS THEN.

OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINS...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BUBBLE UP EACH DAY. THINKING TUESDAY IS REALLY OUR
BEST CHANCE AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SHOULD CORRESPOND TO NEAR PEAK
HEATING. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR VALUES ARE PRETTY LIGHT/LOW...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL POSSIBLY AND
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUD COVER AND SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE
IN THE WEEK.

AT THIS TIME AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT MAINLY DRY WX CAN BE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING AT THE
SFC BUILDS IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AND REACH THE LOWER 80S BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND LATER TODAY. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 12Z MONDAY MAINLY AT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS DUE TO LOWERING
CIGS AND SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO FORECAST
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME SINCE CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY UP
AROUND 3.5 TO 5 KFT AGL MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS THE NEXT 24 HRS SHOULD STAY
AOB 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

OVERALL LIMITED MARINE CONCERNS WITH A FAIRLY WEAK WIND REGIME IN
PLACE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WAVES SHOULD GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT IT DOES APPEAR NORTH WINDS
KICK UP TOWARDS 15 KNOTS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME 2-3
FOOTERS AT THE PEAK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN THE GRAND AND KALAMAZOO
BASINS AS RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN SOME LOCATIONS. BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE





000
FXUS63 KGRR 290729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

A BIT OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK AS WE SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THEY
WILL BE DRIVEN SOMEWHAT BY THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGHS INTO MID
WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WAS ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
ANOTHER ONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. TODAY/S
SHORTWAVE IS SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE
TUESDAY/S IS CLEARLY NOTED OVER MANITOBA IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

EACH SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH A DIURNAL FLARE TO THE PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. THE
GFS SHOULD CAPE VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE
TODAY AND ON TUESDAY AND RISING INTO THE 500-1000 RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHER POPS 30-60 PCT DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS WITH
CHANCES DROPPING TO ZERO-20 PCT OVERNIGHT. RIDGING IS TRYING TO
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY SO THINK CHANCES ARE A LITTLE BIT LESS THEN.

OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINS...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BUBBLE UP EACH DAY. THINKING TUESDAY IS REALLY OUR
BEST CHANCE AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SHOULD CORRESPOND TO NEAR PEAK
HEATING. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR VALUES ARE PRETTY LIGHT/LOW...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL POSSIBLY AND
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUD COVER AND SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE
IN THE WEEK.

AT THIS TIME AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT MAINLY DRY WX CAN BE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING AT THE
SFC BUILDS IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AND REACH THE LOWER 80S BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND LATER TODAY. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 12Z MONDAY MAINLY AT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS DUE TO LOWERING
CIGS AND SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO FORECAST
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME SINCE CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY UP
AROUND 3.5 TO 5 KFT AGL MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS THE NEXT 24 HRS SHOULD STAY
AOB 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

OVERALL LIMITED MARINE CONCERNS WITH A FAIRLY WEAK WIND REGIME IN
PLACE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WAVES SHOULD GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT IT DOES APPEAR NORTH WINDS
KICK UP TOWARDS 15 KNOTS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME 2-3
FOOTERS AT THE PEAK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN THE GRAND AND KALAMAZOO
BASINS AS RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN SOME LOCATIONS. BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE




000
FXUS63 KGRR 290421
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1221 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEK. THAT
MEANS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF RAIN. WE/LL SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE SEVERAL DAYS. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI FROM MINNESOTA SOUTH TOWARD ST LOUIS. THIS CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA. THIS LOW IS PROGD TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW TO INDIANA BY MONDAY. THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE MI/IN BORDER. HOWEVER SOME OF
IT WILL MAKE IT NORTH OF THE BORDER AND SO WE/LL HAVE LIKELY POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTH
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY AND THAT/S WHEN WE`LL HAVE OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR PCPN. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
WE/LL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER JET...SO CHANCES OF HEARING
THUNDER AREN`T GREAT BUT NOT ZERO.



.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND
AN EXITING SHARP UPPER TROUGH. A STRONG UPPER PV ANOMALY SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WELL OFF THE NW U.S. COAST AND
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS TO CREST THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AND REACH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN WE HAVE THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW QUICKLY RAIN EXITS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER IN DOING THIS THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
TYPICAL. OFTEN IN THESE SITUATIONS WITH AN OPEN UPPER WAVE THE
FASTER SOLUTION WINS...SO WE MAY SEE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND LATER TODAY. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 12Z MONDAY MAINLY AT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS DUE TO LOWERING
CIGS AND SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO FORECAST
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME SINCE CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY UP
AROUND 3.5 TO 5 KFT AGL MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS THE NEXT 24 HRS SHOULD STAY
AOB 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH MEANS FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES OVER THE
NEARSHORE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN THE GRAND AND KALAMAZOO
BASINS AS RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN SOME LOCATIONS. BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 290421
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1221 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEK. THAT
MEANS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF RAIN. WE/LL SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE SEVERAL DAYS. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI FROM MINNESOTA SOUTH TOWARD ST LOUIS. THIS CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA. THIS LOW IS PROGD TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW TO INDIANA BY MONDAY. THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE MI/IN BORDER. HOWEVER SOME OF
IT WILL MAKE IT NORTH OF THE BORDER AND SO WE/LL HAVE LIKELY POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTH
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY AND THAT/S WHEN WE`LL HAVE OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR PCPN. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
WE/LL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER JET...SO CHANCES OF HEARING
THUNDER AREN`T GREAT BUT NOT ZERO.



.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND
AN EXITING SHARP UPPER TROUGH. A STRONG UPPER PV ANOMALY SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WELL OFF THE NW U.S. COAST AND
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS TO CREST THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AND REACH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN WE HAVE THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW QUICKLY RAIN EXITS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER IN DOING THIS THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
TYPICAL. OFTEN IN THESE SITUATIONS WITH AN OPEN UPPER WAVE THE
FASTER SOLUTION WINS...SO WE MAY SEE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND LATER TODAY. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 12Z MONDAY MAINLY AT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS DUE TO LOWERING
CIGS AND SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO FORECAST
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME SINCE CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY UP
AROUND 3.5 TO 5 KFT AGL MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS THE NEXT 24 HRS SHOULD STAY
AOB 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH MEANS FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES OVER THE
NEARSHORE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN THE GRAND AND KALAMAZOO
BASINS AS RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN SOME LOCATIONS. BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04





000
FXUS63 KGRR 290421
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1221 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEK. THAT
MEANS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF RAIN. WE/LL SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE SEVERAL DAYS. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI FROM MINNESOTA SOUTH TOWARD ST LOUIS. THIS CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA. THIS LOW IS PROGD TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW TO INDIANA BY MONDAY. THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE MI/IN BORDER. HOWEVER SOME OF
IT WILL MAKE IT NORTH OF THE BORDER AND SO WE/LL HAVE LIKELY POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTH
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY AND THAT/S WHEN WE`LL HAVE OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR PCPN. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
WE/LL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER JET...SO CHANCES OF HEARING
THUNDER AREN`T GREAT BUT NOT ZERO.



.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND
AN EXITING SHARP UPPER TROUGH. A STRONG UPPER PV ANOMALY SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WELL OFF THE NW U.S. COAST AND
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS TO CREST THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AND REACH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN WE HAVE THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW QUICKLY RAIN EXITS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER IN DOING THIS THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
TYPICAL. OFTEN IN THESE SITUATIONS WITH AN OPEN UPPER WAVE THE
FASTER SOLUTION WINS...SO WE MAY SEE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND LATER TODAY. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 12Z MONDAY MAINLY AT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS DUE TO LOWERING
CIGS AND SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO FORECAST
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME SINCE CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY UP
AROUND 3.5 TO 5 KFT AGL MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS THE NEXT 24 HRS SHOULD STAY
AOB 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH MEANS FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES OVER THE
NEARSHORE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN THE GRAND AND KALAMAZOO
BASINS AS RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN SOME LOCATIONS. BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04




000
FXUS63 KGRR 290421
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1221 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEK. THAT
MEANS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF RAIN. WE/LL SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE SEVERAL DAYS. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI FROM MINNESOTA SOUTH TOWARD ST LOUIS. THIS CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA. THIS LOW IS PROGD TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW TO INDIANA BY MONDAY. THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE MI/IN BORDER. HOWEVER SOME OF
IT WILL MAKE IT NORTH OF THE BORDER AND SO WE/LL HAVE LIKELY POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTH
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY AND THAT/S WHEN WE`LL HAVE OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR PCPN. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
WE/LL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER JET...SO CHANCES OF HEARING
THUNDER AREN`T GREAT BUT NOT ZERO.



.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND
AN EXITING SHARP UPPER TROUGH. A STRONG UPPER PV ANOMALY SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WELL OFF THE NW U.S. COAST AND
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS TO CREST THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AND REACH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN WE HAVE THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW QUICKLY RAIN EXITS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER IN DOING THIS THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
TYPICAL. OFTEN IN THESE SITUATIONS WITH AN OPEN UPPER WAVE THE
FASTER SOLUTION WINS...SO WE MAY SEE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND LATER TODAY. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 12Z MONDAY MAINLY AT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS DUE TO LOWERING
CIGS AND SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO FORECAST
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME SINCE CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY UP
AROUND 3.5 TO 5 KFT AGL MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS THE NEXT 24 HRS SHOULD STAY
AOB 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH MEANS FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES OVER THE
NEARSHORE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN THE GRAND AND KALAMAZOO
BASINS AS RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN SOME LOCATIONS. BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04





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