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000
FXUS63 KGRR 260730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY WILL TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96. MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY
A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A VERY
CHILLY AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON HALLOWEEN WITH A CHANCE OF
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

OVERALL THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT FOR
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THE WARM FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IS FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND THE LATE NIGHT
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT DOES NOT REALLY FAVOR ROBUST
CONVECTION. THE OTHER POTENTIAL NEGATIVE FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
THE CURRENT LACK OF MOISTURE AS NOTED BY CLOUD FREE SKIES AT THIS
HOUR COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE CONUS. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DESPITE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS... STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE UNLIKELY SINCE THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY ROOTED ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LITTLE TO NO SFC INSTABILITY PROGGED. H8-H5
THETA E LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO BE NEGATIVE AND THIS DOES
SUPPORT THE RISK OF ELEVATED STORMS WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END BY NOON TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT ARRIVES RAPIDLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING COLD
FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

THE COLDER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO POUR INTO SW MI TO START THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.  H8 TEMPS OF -2C TO -3C SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME WEAK LAKE
EFFECT WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5K FT.  I BUMPED POPS UP A BIT
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW SHOULD BE WESTERLY...CARRYING THE RAIN
SHOWERS INLAND.  ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOULD WIND DOWN ON WED AS
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  IT
IS THIS WAVE THAT DROPS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA THAT SHOULD GIVE US A
BRIEF SHOT OF WINTRY WEATHER.  THE SYNOPTIC WAVE SHOULD GIVE US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THEN THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
HALLOWEEN NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD SPARK MORE LAKE EFFECT WHICH SHOULD
MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW AT TIMES... MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF WIND...WHICH COULD BRING
WINDS CHILLS AS LOW AS THE LOWER 20S FOR TRICK OR TREAT NIGHT.  THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SO MOST OF THE LAKE
EFFECT BY THEN SHOULD BE HUGGING THE COAST.  HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS
TO BUILD IN BY SATURDAY GIVING SW MI DRY WEATHER AS THE COLDEST OF
THE AIR BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN
VFR. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THEN BECOME LIGHT AGAIN TOWARD NIGHTFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE BUT WINDS WILL BE DECREASING TODAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RIDGE. WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE
CURRENT HEADLINE A BIT EARLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN THE WESTERLY FLOW COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
UPCOMING WEEK GETS A BIT MORE ACTIVE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WHICH COULD TOTAL ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WITH
ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OR SO OF RAIN. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MEANING THAT
THUNDERSTORM AFFECTED AREAS HAVE A GREATER CHANCE AND EXCEEDING
THE AFOREMENTIONED EXPECTATIONS. THAT SAID...RECENT DRY WEATHER
AND PROBABILITIES OF ANY BIG IMPACT PRECIPITATION IS LOW. NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE











000
FXUS63 KGRR 260516
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
116 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AND BRING FAIR AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER. A WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MIDWEEK. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS INVOLVE DETERMINING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL RAMP UP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. H8 LI/S ARE PROGGED TO FALL
TO -1 TO -2 BY 12Z MON BY 12Z GFS GUIDANCE. 12Z NAM GUIDANCE IS
JUST A BIT SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY
BUT ALSO SHOWS THAT H8 LI/S WILL FALL TO -1 TO -3 DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM
THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING 1000-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUITE HIGH
AT 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL COME FROM A 40-45 KT LLJ AND THEN LATER IN THE NIGHT
FROM LIFT/FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEVERE WX IS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING AND WEAK INSTABILITY.

IN THE NEARER TERM FAIR AND TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE WE WILL SEE OUR FIRST TASTE OF
WINTER IN THE HALLOWEEN TIME FRAME. I AM NOW THINKING WE MAY EVEN
SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS INLAND OF THE LAKE SHORE FROM SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SPEED UP BY THE MODELS SO MOST OF SHOWERS
WILL BE DONE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING...SO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL
GET A DRY SLOT DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD MEAN SOME SUNSHINE.

AS IS TYPICAL FOR THESE TYPES OF FORECASTS... THE KEY TO WHAT
HAPPENS LATER THIS COMING WEEK IS WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC OCEAN. ACTUALLY THERE IS ONE OF THOSE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR
KAMCHATKA THAT ROTATES AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF
THE NORTH POLE. IT THEN DEEPS SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY NEAR THE
DATELINE. AFTER THAT IS MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS FURTHER (ECMWF AND
GFS BOTH AGREE ON THIS ) AND ENDS UP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS THEN BUILDS AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA WHICH IN TURNS DEEPS THE EAST COAST TROUGH. THE MODELS
DO NOT DO WELL WITH THIS TYPE OF DIGGING ARCTIC ORIGIN UPPER WAVE.
SO I AM THINKING WHATEVER WILL HAPPEN WILL BE MORE DRAMATIC THEN ANY
OF THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING.

WHAT WE WILL SEE FROM THIS IS THE PRIMARY DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE COMES THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WITH SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. BUT
THAT IS NOT WHEN THE REALLY COLD AIR GETS HERE. THAT HAPPENS WITH
THE DIGGING 110 KNOT POLAR JET DIVES SOUTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEST SIDE
OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. THAT BRINGS -10C 850 AIR INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS OF FRIDAY. GIVEN THE +12C LAKE TEMPS...
THIS WOULD BE RATHER UNSTABLE AND ADD A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE
I HAVE TO BELIEVE WE WILL BE SEEING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT (WEST OF US-131) WITH SOME ACCUMULATION MORE
THAN POSSIBLE.  VERY CLOSE THE LAKE...NEAR AND WEST OF US-31 DUE TO
THE WARM LAKE... WOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN.

SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS EXPECT SHOWERS THURSDAY DURING THE DAY... THEN
RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN
VFR. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THEN BECOME LIGHT AGAIN TOWARD NIGHTFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS...AND WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...SO CONDITIONS MAY FALL UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
UPCOMING WEEK GETS A BIT MORE ACTIVE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WHICH COULD TOTAL ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WITH
ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OR SO OF RAIN. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MEANING THAT
THUNDERSTORM AFFECTED AREAS HAVE A GREATER CHANCE AND EXCEEDING
THE AFOREMENTIONED EXPECTATIONS. THAT SAID...RECENT DRY WEATHER
AND PROBABILITIES OF ANY BIG IMPACT PRECIPITATION IS LOW. NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 260516
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
116 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AND BRING FAIR AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER. A WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MIDWEEK. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS INVOLVE DETERMINING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL RAMP UP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. H8 LI/S ARE PROGGED TO FALL
TO -1 TO -2 BY 12Z MON BY 12Z GFS GUIDANCE. 12Z NAM GUIDANCE IS
JUST A BIT SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY
BUT ALSO SHOWS THAT H8 LI/S WILL FALL TO -1 TO -3 DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM
THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING 1000-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUITE HIGH
AT 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL COME FROM A 40-45 KT LLJ AND THEN LATER IN THE NIGHT
FROM LIFT/FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEVERE WX IS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING AND WEAK INSTABILITY.

IN THE NEARER TERM FAIR AND TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE WE WILL SEE OUR FIRST TASTE OF
WINTER IN THE HALLOWEEN TIME FRAME. I AM NOW THINKING WE MAY EVEN
SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS INLAND OF THE LAKE SHORE FROM SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SPEED UP BY THE MODELS SO MOST OF SHOWERS
WILL BE DONE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING...SO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL
GET A DRY SLOT DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD MEAN SOME SUNSHINE.

AS IS TYPICAL FOR THESE TYPES OF FORECASTS... THE KEY TO WHAT
HAPPENS LATER THIS COMING WEEK IS WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC OCEAN. ACTUALLY THERE IS ONE OF THOSE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR
KAMCHATKA THAT ROTATES AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF
THE NORTH POLE. IT THEN DEEPS SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY NEAR THE
DATELINE. AFTER THAT IS MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS FURTHER (ECMWF AND
GFS BOTH AGREE ON THIS ) AND ENDS UP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS THEN BUILDS AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA WHICH IN TURNS DEEPS THE EAST COAST TROUGH. THE MODELS
DO NOT DO WELL WITH THIS TYPE OF DIGGING ARCTIC ORIGIN UPPER WAVE.
SO I AM THINKING WHATEVER WILL HAPPEN WILL BE MORE DRAMATIC THEN ANY
OF THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING.

WHAT WE WILL SEE FROM THIS IS THE PRIMARY DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE COMES THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WITH SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. BUT
THAT IS NOT WHEN THE REALLY COLD AIR GETS HERE. THAT HAPPENS WITH
THE DIGGING 110 KNOT POLAR JET DIVES SOUTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEST SIDE
OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. THAT BRINGS -10C 850 AIR INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS OF FRIDAY. GIVEN THE +12C LAKE TEMPS...
THIS WOULD BE RATHER UNSTABLE AND ADD A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE
I HAVE TO BELIEVE WE WILL BE SEEING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT (WEST OF US-131) WITH SOME ACCUMULATION MORE
THAN POSSIBLE.  VERY CLOSE THE LAKE...NEAR AND WEST OF US-31 DUE TO
THE WARM LAKE... WOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN.

SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS EXPECT SHOWERS THURSDAY DURING THE DAY... THEN
RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN
VFR. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THEN BECOME LIGHT AGAIN TOWARD NIGHTFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS...AND WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...SO CONDITIONS MAY FALL UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
UPCOMING WEEK GETS A BIT MORE ACTIVE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WHICH COULD TOTAL ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WITH
ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OR SO OF RAIN. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MEANING THAT
THUNDERSTORM AFFECTED AREAS HAVE A GREATER CHANCE AND EXCEEDING
THE AFOREMENTIONED EXPECTATIONS. THAT SAID...RECENT DRY WEATHER
AND PROBABILITIES OF ANY BIG IMPACT PRECIPITATION IS LOW. NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 260128
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
928 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AND BRING FAIR AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER. A WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MIDWEEK. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS INVOLVE DETERMINING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL RAMP UP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. H8 LI/S ARE PROGGED TO FALL
TO -1 TO -2 BY 12Z MON BY 12Z GFS GUIDANCE. 12Z NAM GUIDANCE IS
JUST A BIT SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY
BUT ALSO SHOWS THAT H8 LI/S WILL FALL TO -1 TO -3 DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM
THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING 1000-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUITE HIGH
AT 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL COME FROM A 40-45 KT LLJ AND THEN LATER IN THE NIGHT
FROM LIFT/FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEVERE WX IS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING AND WEAK INSTABILITY.

IN THE NEARER TERM FAIR AND TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE WE WILL SEE OUR FIRST TASTE OF
WINTER IN THE HALLOWEEN TIME FRAME. I AM NOW THINKING WE MAY EVEN
SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS INLAND OF THE LAKE SHORE FROM SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SPEED UP BY THE MODELS SO MOST OF SHOWERS
WILL BE DONE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING...SO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL
GET A DRY SLOT DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD MEAN SOME SUNSHINE.

AS IS TYPICAL FOR THESE TYPES OF FORECASTS... THE KEY TO WHAT
HAPPENS LATER THIS COMING WEEK IS WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC OCEAN. ACTUALLY THERE IS ONE OF THOSE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR
KAMCHATKA THAT ROTATES AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF
THE NORTH POLE. IT THEN DEEPS SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY NEAR THE
DATELINE. AFTER THAT IS MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS FURTHER (ECWMF AND
GFS BOTH AGREE ON THIS ) AND ENDS UP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS THEN BUILDS AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA WHICH IN TURNS DEEPS THE EAST COAST TROUGH. THE MODELS
DO NOT DO WELL WITH THIS TYPE OF DIGGING ARCTIC ORIGIN UPPER WAVE.
SO I AM THINKING WHATEVER WILL HAPPEN WILL BE MORE DRAMATIC THEN ANY
OF THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING.

WHAT WE WILL SEE FROM THIS IS THE PRIMARY DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE COMES THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WITH SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. BUT
THAT IS NOT WHEN THE REALLY COLD AIR GETS HERE. THAT HAPPENS WITH
THE DIGGING 110 KNOT POLAR JET DIVES SOUTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEST SIDE
OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. THAT BRINGS -10C 850 AIR INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS OF FRIDAY. GIVEN THE +12C LAKE TEMPS...
THIS WOULD BE RATHER UNSTABLE AND ADD A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE
I HAVE TO BELIEVE WE WILL BE SEEING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT (WEST OF US-131) WITH SOME ACCUMULATION MORE
THAN POSSIBLE.  VERY CLOSE THE LAKE...NEAR AND WEST OF US-31 DUE TO
THE WARM LAKE... WOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN.

SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS EXPECT SHOWERS THURSDAY DURING THE DAY... THEN
RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE TAF SITES
THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING AND THE
TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF...THE WIND WILL BE DECREASING BY 01Z.
VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS...AND WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...SO CONDITIONS MAY FALL UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
UPCOMING WEEK GETS A BIT MORE ACTIVE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WHICH COULD TOTAL ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WITH
ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OR SO OF RAIN. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MEANING THAT
THUNDERSTORM AFFECTED AREAS HAVE A GREATER CHANCE AND EXCEEDING
THE AFOREMENTIONED EXPECTATIONS. THAT SAID...RECENT DRY WEATHER
AND PROBABILITIES OF ANY BIG IMPACT PRECIPITATION IS LOW. NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 252317
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
717 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AND BRING FAIR AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER. A WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MIDWEEK. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS INVOLVE DETERMINING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL RAMP UP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. H8 LI/S ARE PROGGED TO FALL
TO -1 TO -2 BY 12Z MON BY 12Z GFS GUIDANCE. 12Z NAM GUIDANCE IS
JUST A BIT SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY
BUT ALSO SHOWS THAT H8 LI/S WILL FALL TO -1 TO -3 DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM
THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING 1000-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUITE HIGH
AT 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL COME FROM A 40-45 KT LLJ AND THEN LATER IN THE NIGHT
FROM LIFT/FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEVERE WX IS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING AND WEAK INSTABILITY.

IN THE NEARER TERM FAIR AND TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE WE WILL SEE OUR FIRST TASTE OF
WINTER IN THE HALLOWEEN TIME FRAME. I AM NOW THINKING WE MAY EVEN
SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS INLAND OF THE LAKE SHORE FROM SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SPEED UP BY THE MODELS SO MOST OF SHOWERS
WILL BE DONE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING...SO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL
GET A DRY SLOT DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD MEAN SOME SUNSHINE.

AS IS TYPICAL FOR THESE TYPES OF FORECASTS... THE KEY TO WHAT
HAPPENS LATER THIS COMING WEEK IS WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC OCEAN. ACTUALLY THERE IS ONE OF THOSE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR
KAMCHATKA THAT ROTATES AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF
THE NORTH POLE. IT THEN DEEPS SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY NEAR THE
DATELINE. AFTER THAT IS MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS FURTHER (ECWMF AND
GFS BOTH AGREE ON THIS ) AND ENDS UP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS THEN BUILDS AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA WHICH IN TURNS DEEPS THE EAST COAST TROUGH. THE MODELS
DO NOT DO WELL WITH THIS TYPE OF DIGGING ARCTIC ORIGIN UPPER WAVE.
SO I AM THINKING WHATEVER WILL HAPPEN WILL BE MORE DRAMATIC THEN ANY
OF THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING.

WHAT WE WILL SEE FROM THIS IS THE PRIMARY DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE COMES THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WITH SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. BUT
THAT IS NOT WHEN THE REALLY COLD AIR GETS HERE. THAT HAPPENS WITH
THE DIGGING 110 KNOT POLAR JET DIVES SOUTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEST SIDE
OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. THAT BRINGS -10C 850 AIR INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS OF FRIDAY. GIVEN THE +12C LAKE TEMPS...
THIS WOULD BE RATHER UNSTABLE AND ADD A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE
I HAVE TO BELIEVE WE WILL BE SEEING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT (WEST OF US-131) WITH SOME ACCUMULATION MORE
THAN POSSIBLE.  VERY CLOSE THE LAKE...NEAR AND WEST OF US-31 DUE TO
THE WARM LAKE... WOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN.

SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS EXPECT SHOWERS THURSDAY DURING THE DAY... THEN
RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE TAF SITES
THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING AND THE
TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF...THE WIND WILL BE DECREASING BY 01Z.
VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRISK WNW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET THIS EVENING. WINDS
AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
UPCOMING WEEK GETS A BIT MORE ACTIVE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WHICH COULD TOTAL ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WITH
ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OR SO OF RAIN. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MEANING THAT
THUNDERSTORM AFFECTED AREAS HAVE A GREATER CHANCE AND EXCEEDING
THE AFOREMENTIONED EXPECTATIONS. THAT SAID...RECENT DRY WEATHER
AND PROBABILITIES OF ANY BIG IMPACT PRECIPITATION IS LOW. NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 251928
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AND BRING FAIR AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER. A WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MIDWEEK. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS INVOLVE DETERMINING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL RAMP UP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. H8 LI/S ARE PROGGED TO FALL
TO -1 TO -2 BY 12Z MON BY 12Z GFS GUIDANCE. 12Z NAM GUIDANCE IS
JUST A BIT SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY
BUT ALSO SHOWS THAT H8 LI/S WILL FALL TO -1 TO -3 DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM
THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING 1000-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUITE HIGH
AT 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL COME FROM A 40-45 KT LLJ AND THEN LATER IN THE NIGHT
FROM LIFT/FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEVERE WX IS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING AND WEAK INSTABILITY.

IN THE NEARER TERM FAIR AND TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE WE WILL SEE OUR FIRST TASTE OF
WINTER IN THE HALLOWEEN TIME FRAME. I AM NOW THINKING WE MAY EVEN
SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS INLAND OF THE LAKE SHORE FROM SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SPEED UP BY THE MODELS SO MOST OF SHOWERS
WILL BE DONE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING...SO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL
GET A DRY SLOT DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD MEAN SOME SUNSHINE.

AS IS TYPICAL FOR THESE TYPES OF FORECASTS... THE KEY TO WHAT
HAPPENS LATER THIS COMING WEEK IS WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC OCEAN. ACTUALLY THERE IS ONE OF THOSE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR
KAMCHATKA THAT ROTATES AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF
THE NORTH POLE. IT THEN DEEPS SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY NEAR THE
DATELINE. AFTER THAT IS MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS FURTHER (ECWMF AND
GFS BOTH AGREE ON THIS ) AND ENDS UP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS THEN BUILDS AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA WHICH IN TURNS DEEPS THE EAST COAST TROUGH. THE MODELS
DO NOT DO WELL WITH THIS TYPE OF DIGGING ARCTIC ORIGIN UPPER WAVE.
SO I AM THINKING WHATEVER WILL HAPPEN WILL BE MORE DRAMATIC THEN ANY
OF THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING.

WHAT WE WILL SEE FROM THIS IS THE PRIMARY DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE COMES THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WITH SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. BUT
THAT IS NOT WHEN THE REALLY COLD AIR GETS HERE. THAT HAPPENS WITH
THE DIGGING 110 KNOT POLAR JET DIVES SOUTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEST SIDE
OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. THAT BRINGS -10C 850 AIR INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS OF FRIDAY. GIVEN THE +12C LAKE TEMPS...
THIS WOULD BE RATHER UNSTABLE AND ADD A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE
I HAVE TO BELIEVE WE WILL BE SEEING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT (WEST OF US-131) WITH SOME ACCUMULATION MORE
THAN POSSIBLE.  VERY CLOSE THE LAKE...NEAR AND WEST OF US-31 DUE TO
THE WARM LAKE... WOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN.

SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS EXPECT SHOWERS THURSDAY DURING THE DAY... THEN
RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY 20Z ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH
GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA SO WINDS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BUT SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 20Z TODAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRISK WNW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET THIS EVENING. WINDS
AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
UPCOMING WEEK GETS A BIT MORE ACTIVE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WHICH COULD TOTAL ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WITH
ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OR SO OF RAIN. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MEANING THAT
THUNDERSTORM AFFECTED AREAS HAVE A GREATER CHANCE AND EXCEEDING
THE AFOREMENTIONED EXPECTATIONS. THAT SAID...RECENT DRY WEATHER
AND PROBABILITIES OF ANY BIG IMPACT PRECIPITATION IS LOW. NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...LAURENS









000
FXUS63 KGRR 251648
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1248 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A RATHER BREEZY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 60S TODAY WHICH IS ACTUALLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S ON
SUNDAY WITH DRY AND FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. A WARM FRONT SURGING INTO
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LIMITED WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH DRY TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TODAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF SUNSHINE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. 30-40 PCT POPS AREA
WIDE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEMS REASONABLE SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
SURGE OF MOISTURE. 850MB DEW POINTS RISE RAPIDLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS C. RISES OF THE MAGNITUDE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT USUALLY
RESULT ON DECENT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. THE 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS NOT OFF THE CHARTS...BUT IS SOLID...AS IS THE LLJ. A
30KT LLJ IS NOSING IN MONDAY MORNING.

THE LLJ RAMPS UP FURTHER ON MONDAY WITH 35-40 KNOTS IN PLACE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR MONDAY. DEEP
LAYER MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES ALSO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BOTH PERIODS (SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY). AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE. SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT THE MAX IS REACHED A DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WHICH IS A
USUAL RELATIVE MINIMUM IN SEVERE ACTIVITY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REACHES
50 KNOTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN ON THE SAME PAGE...SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH SW MI TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD
JET DYNAMICS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT LIKELY TO
HIGH CHANCE POPS WILL WORK WITH THIS FROPA.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...SO TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
FALLING TEMPS FROM A MORNING HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS H8 TEMPS PLUNGE TO AROUND -3C.  THIS SHOULD BE A
SHORT WINDOW HOWEVER AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS BY MID DAY
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

THEN A SHARPENING SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.  H8 TEMPS DROP EVEN FURTHER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO
AROUND -7C BY FRIDAY.  BELIEVE WE STAND A CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE INTERIOR
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS
COLDER TREND CONTINUES...IF SO WE WILL HAVE TO EXPAND THE MENTION OF
SNOW FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY 20Z ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH
GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA SO WINDS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BUT SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 20Z TODAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

OPTED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS MORNING WILL RISE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THE
CORE OF THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WAVES WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE SUBSTANTIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
UPCOMING WEEK GETS A BIT MORE ACTIVE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WHICH COULD TOTAL ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WITH
ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OR SO OF RAIN. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MEANING THAT
THUNDERSTORM AFFECTED AREAS HAVE A GREATER CHANCE AND EXCEEDING
THE AFOREMENTIONED EXPECTATIONS. THAT SAID...RECENT DRY WEATHER
AND PROBABILITIES OF ANY BIG IMPACT PRECIPITATION IS LOW. NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 251648
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1248 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A RATHER BREEZY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 60S TODAY WHICH IS ACTUALLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S ON
SUNDAY WITH DRY AND FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. A WARM FRONT SURGING INTO
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LIMITED WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH DRY TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TODAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF SUNSHINE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. 30-40 PCT POPS AREA
WIDE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEMS REASONABLE SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
SURGE OF MOISTURE. 850MB DEW POINTS RISE RAPIDLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS C. RISES OF THE MAGNITUDE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT USUALLY
RESULT ON DECENT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. THE 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS NOT OFF THE CHARTS...BUT IS SOLID...AS IS THE LLJ. A
30KT LLJ IS NOSING IN MONDAY MORNING.

THE LLJ RAMPS UP FURTHER ON MONDAY WITH 35-40 KNOTS IN PLACE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR MONDAY. DEEP
LAYER MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES ALSO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BOTH PERIODS (SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY). AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE. SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT THE MAX IS REACHED A DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WHICH IS A
USUAL RELATIVE MINIMUM IN SEVERE ACTIVITY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REACHES
50 KNOTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN ON THE SAME PAGE...SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH SW MI TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD
JET DYNAMICS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT LIKELY TO
HIGH CHANCE POPS WILL WORK WITH THIS FROPA.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...SO TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
FALLING TEMPS FROM A MORNING HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS H8 TEMPS PLUNGE TO AROUND -3C.  THIS SHOULD BE A
SHORT WINDOW HOWEVER AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS BY MID DAY
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

THEN A SHARPENING SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.  H8 TEMPS DROP EVEN FURTHER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO
AROUND -7C BY FRIDAY.  BELIEVE WE STAND A CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE INTERIOR
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS
COLDER TREND CONTINUES...IF SO WE WILL HAVE TO EXPAND THE MENTION OF
SNOW FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY 20Z ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH
GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA SO WINDS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BUT SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 20Z TODAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

OPTED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS MORNING WILL RISE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THE
CORE OF THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WAVES WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE SUBSTANTIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
UPCOMING WEEK GETS A BIT MORE ACTIVE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WHICH COULD TOTAL ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WITH
ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OR SO OF RAIN. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MEANING THAT
THUNDERSTORM AFFECTED AREAS HAVE A GREATER CHANCE AND EXCEEDING
THE AFOREMENTIONED EXPECTATIONS. THAT SAID...RECENT DRY WEATHER
AND PROBABILITIES OF ANY BIG IMPACT PRECIPITATION IS LOW. NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 251557
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1157 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A RATHER BREEZY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 60S TODAY WHICH IS ACTUALLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S ON
SUNDAY WITH DRY AND FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. A WARM FRONT SURGING INTO
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LIMITED WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH DRY TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TODAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF SUNSHINE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. 30-40 PCT POPS AREA
WIDE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEMS REASONABLE SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
SURGE OF MOISTURE. 850MB DEW POINTS RISE RAPIDLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS C. RISES OF THE MAGNITUDE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT USUALLY
RESULT ON DECENT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. THE 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS NOT OFF THE CHARTS...BUT IS SOLID...AS IS THE LLJ. A
30KT LLJ IS NOSING IN MONDAY MORNING.

THE LLJ RAMPS UP FURTHER ON MONDAY WITH 35-40 KNOTS IN PLACE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR MONDAY. DEEP
LAYER MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES ALSO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BOTH PERIODS (SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY). AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE. SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT THE MAX IS REACHED A DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WHICH IS A
USUAL RELATIVE MINIMUM IN SEVERE ACTIVITY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REACHES
50 KNOTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN ON THE SAME PAGE...SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH SW MI TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD
JET DYNAMICS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT LIKELY TO
HIGH CHANCE POPS WILL WORK WITH THIS FROPA.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...SO TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
FALLING TEMPS FROM A MORNING HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS H8 TEMPS PLUNGE TO AROUND -3C.  THIS SHOULD BE A
SHORT WINDOW HOWEVER AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS BY MID DAY
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

THEN A SHARPENING SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.  H8 TEMPS DROP EVEN FURTHER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO
AROUND -7C BY FRIDAY.  BELIEVE WE STAND A CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE INTERIOR
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS
COLDER TREND CONTINUES...IF SO WE WILL HAVE TO EXPAND THE MENTION OF
SNOW FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SOME MVFR CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT
12Z...BUT THE TREND WILL BE TO CLEAR THESE OUT THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THE MORNING. BY NOON...EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE OTHER MAIN STORY WILL BE THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TODAY. FROM
ABOUT 15Z THROUGH 23Z...12-25 KNOT WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
A FEW POSSIBLE GUSTS TOWARDS 30 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

OPTED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS MORNING WILL RISE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THE
CORE OF THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WAVES WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE SUBSTANTIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
UPCOMING WEEK GETS A BIT MORE ACTIVE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WHICH COULD TOTAL ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD THAT IS ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WITH ANOTHER QUARTER
INCH OR SO OF RAIN. PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MEANING THAT THUNDERSTORM AFFECTED
AREAS HAVE A GREATER CHANCE AND EXCEEDING THE AFOREMENTIONED
EXPECTATIONS. THAT SAID...RECENT DRY WEATHER AND PROBABILITIES OF
ANY BIG IMPACT PRECIPITATION IS LOW. NO RIVER FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 251153
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
753 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A RATHER BREEZY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 60S TODAY WHICH IS ACTUALLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S ON
SUNDAY WITH DRY AND FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. A WARM FRONT SURGING INTO
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LIMITED WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH DRY TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TODAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF SUNSHINE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. 30-40 PCT POPS AREA
WIDE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEMS REASONABLE SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
SURGE OF MOISTURE. 850MB DEW POINTS RISE RAPIDLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS C. RISES OF THE MAGNITUDE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT USUALLY
RESULT ON DECENT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. THE 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS NOT OFF THE CHARTS...BUT IS SOLID...AS IS THE LLJ. A
30KT LLJ IS NOSING IN MONDAY MORNING.

THE LLJ RAMPS UP FURTHER ON MONDAY WITH 35-40 KNOTS IN PLACE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR MONDAY. DEEP
LAYER MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES ALSO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BOTH PERIODS (SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY). AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE. SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT THE MAX IS REACHED A DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WHICH IS A
USUAL RELATIVE MINIMUM IN SEVERE ACTIVITY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REACHES
50 KNOTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN ON THE SAME PAGE...SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH SW MI TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD
JET DYNAMICS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT LIKELY TO
HIGH CHANCE POPS WILL WORK WITH THIS FROPA.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...SO TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
FALLING TEMPS FROM A MORNING HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS H8 TEMPS PLUNGE TO AROUND -3C.  THIS SHOULD BE A
SHORT WINDOW HOWEVER AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS BY MID DAY
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

THEN A SHARPENING SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.  H8 TEMPS DROP EVEN FURTHER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO
AROUND -7C BY FRIDAY.  BELIEVE WE STAND A CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE INTERIOR
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS
COLDER TREND CONTINUES...IF SO WE WILL HAVE TO EXPAND THE MENTION OF
SNOW FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SOME MVFR CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT
12Z...BUT THE TREND WILL BE TO CLEAR THESE OUT THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THE MORNING. BY NOON...EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE OTHER MAIN STORY WILL BE THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TODAY. FROM
ABOUT 15Z THROUGH 23Z...12-25 KNOT WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
A FEW POSSIBLE GUSTS TOWARDS 30 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

OPTED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS MORNING WILL RISE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THE
CORE OF THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WAVES WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE SUBSTANTIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. THAT
SAID...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. WITH RIVER LEVELS CURRENTLY AROUND NORMAL AND
WELL WITHIN BANK WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY RIVER OR FLOOD ISSUES.
PWAT VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES...SO
THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH STORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 251153
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
753 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A RATHER BREEZY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 60S TODAY WHICH IS ACTUALLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S ON
SUNDAY WITH DRY AND FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. A WARM FRONT SURGING INTO
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LIMITED WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH DRY TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TODAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF SUNSHINE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. 30-40 PCT POPS AREA
WIDE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEMS REASONABLE SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
SURGE OF MOISTURE. 850MB DEW POINTS RISE RAPIDLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS C. RISES OF THE MAGNITUDE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT USUALLY
RESULT ON DECENT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. THE 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS NOT OFF THE CHARTS...BUT IS SOLID...AS IS THE LLJ. A
30KT LLJ IS NOSING IN MONDAY MORNING.

THE LLJ RAMPS UP FURTHER ON MONDAY WITH 35-40 KNOTS IN PLACE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR MONDAY. DEEP
LAYER MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES ALSO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BOTH PERIODS (SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY). AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE. SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT THE MAX IS REACHED A DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WHICH IS A
USUAL RELATIVE MINIMUM IN SEVERE ACTIVITY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REACHES
50 KNOTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN ON THE SAME PAGE...SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH SW MI TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD
JET DYNAMICS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT LIKELY TO
HIGH CHANCE POPS WILL WORK WITH THIS FROPA.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...SO TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
FALLING TEMPS FROM A MORNING HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS H8 TEMPS PLUNGE TO AROUND -3C.  THIS SHOULD BE A
SHORT WINDOW HOWEVER AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS BY MID DAY
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

THEN A SHARPENING SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.  H8 TEMPS DROP EVEN FURTHER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO
AROUND -7C BY FRIDAY.  BELIEVE WE STAND A CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE INTERIOR
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS
COLDER TREND CONTINUES...IF SO WE WILL HAVE TO EXPAND THE MENTION OF
SNOW FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SOME MVFR CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT
12Z...BUT THE TREND WILL BE TO CLEAR THESE OUT THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THE MORNING. BY NOON...EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE OTHER MAIN STORY WILL BE THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TODAY. FROM
ABOUT 15Z THROUGH 23Z...12-25 KNOT WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
A FEW POSSIBLE GUSTS TOWARDS 30 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

OPTED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS MORNING WILL RISE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THE
CORE OF THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WAVES WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE SUBSTANTIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. THAT
SAID...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. WITH RIVER LEVELS CURRENTLY AROUND NORMAL AND
WELL WITHIN BANK WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY RIVER OR FLOOD ISSUES.
PWAT VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES...SO
THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH STORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 250737
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A RATHER BREEZY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 60S TODAY WHICH IS ACTUALLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S ON
SUNDAY WITH DRY AND FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. A WARM FRONT SURGING INTO
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LIMITED WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH DRY TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TODAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF SUNSHINE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. 30-40 PCT POPS AREA
WIDE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEMS REASONABLE SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
SURGE OF MOISTURE. 850MB DEW POINTS RISE RAPIDLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS C. RISES OF THE MAGNITUDE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT USUALLY
RESULT ON DECENT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. THE 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS NOT OFF THE CHARTS...BUT IS SOLID...AS IS THE LLJ. A
30KT LLJ IS NOSING IN MONDAY MORNING.

THE LLJ RAMPS UP FURTHER ON MONDAY WITH 35-40 KNOTS IN PLACE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR MONDAY. DEEP
LAYER MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES ALSO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BOTH PERIODS (SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY). AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE. SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT THE MAX IS REACHED A DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WHICH IS A
USUAL RELATIVE MINIMUM IN SEVERE ACTIVITY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REACHES
50 KNOTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN ON THE SAME PAGE...SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH SW MI TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD
JET DYNAMICS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT LIKELY TO
HIGH CHANCE POPS WILL WORK WITH THIS FROPA.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...SO TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
FALLING TEMPS FROM A MORNING HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS H8 TEMPS PLUNGE TO AROUND -3C.  THIS SHOULD BE A
SHORT WINDOW HOWEVER AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS BY MID DAY
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

THEN A SHARPENING SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.  H8 TEMPS DROP EVEN FURTHER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO
AROUND -7C BY FRIDAY.  BELIEVE WE STAND A CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE INTERIOR
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS
COLDER TREND CONTINUES...IF SO WE WILL HAVE TO EXPAND THE MENTION OF
SNOW FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

EXPECT SOME IFR IN FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH WIND
JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE. FEEL MOST AREAS WILL STAY IN THE IFR RANGE AND NOT FALL
BELOW 1SM. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE FOG LIFT AND BECOME A IFR
STRATUS DECK. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE MID MORNING AS THE
SUN BURNS IT OFF AND MIXING CONTINUES TO INCREASE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM 14Z ONWARD.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TOWARD 25 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THESE WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

OPTED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS MORNING WILL RISE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THE
CORE OF THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WAVES WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE SUBSTANTIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. THAT
SAID...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. WITH RIVER LEVELS CURRENTLY AROUND NORMAL AND
WELL WITHIN BANK WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY RIVER OR FLOOD ISSUES.
PWAT VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES...SO
THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH STORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE











000
FXUS63 KGRR 250525
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
125 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS IN TONIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
MOVE OUT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR MOVES UP INTO THE AREA. MORE RAIN
WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TEMPERATURES DROPPED OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THIS...COMBINED
WITH A HUMID START TO THE NIGHT ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
TO FORM. I HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO LOWERED IN SOME AREAS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE BETTER THAN ANTICIPATED COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO MAJOR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FCST. CLOUD TRENDS AND THE THREAT OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE THE FIRST
FOCUS...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF WINDOW OF PARTIAL CLEARING TO TAKE
PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT HAS HELD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE BREAKS ARE OPENING UP...AND WE
EXPECT THESE TO EXPAND AS THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO THE FCST FOR TONIGHT AND
EARLY SAT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
MO RIVER AS OF 19Z. THERE IS LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH
THIS NEXT FRONT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT/S FRONT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
AND UPPER JET SUPPORT BOTH STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WEAK LL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WORKING ON A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE PCPN TONIGHT OR
SAT MORNING.

THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 12Z SAT...AND
SHOULD EXIT THE CWFA BY ABOUT 20Z OR SO. SHORTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...THE LOWER CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPS SHOULD
SNEAK INTO THE 60S AS BEST CAA DOES NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL SAT NIGHT.
WE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEN THROUGH SUN EVENING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE BACK IN ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA LATE
ON SUN NIGHT. THE STRONG SYSTEM OFF OF THE PACIFIC NW TODAY WILL
OPEN UP A BIT AND TRANSLATE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS BY
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN A WARM FRONT TO OUR SW AND
DRIVE IT IN HERE LATE SUN NIGHT. A DECENT SURGE OF WARMTH AND
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL HELP TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW. THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ELEVATED LI/S GOING NEGATIVE OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THIS PERIOD IS ONE OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE START OF THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY TO THE END OF THE FORECAST ON HALLOWEEN. A STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THEN WE GET A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY ONLY TO HAVE A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT IN THE THURSDAY
TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

THE REMNANTS OF EXTRATROPICAL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT PACIFIC
TROPICAL STORM ANA NOW LOCATED WELL NW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
MERGES WITH THE PACIFIC SYSTEM  MOVING ON SHORE FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. TYPICALLY THE MODELS UNDERPLAY THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS SO I
WOULD IMAGINE WHAT WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE WILL BE STRONGER AND SLOWER
THEN THE MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW. THAT FAVORS THE LOWER ECMWF SO I
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. ALSO THERE IS
DECENT INSTABILITY (850 LI NEGATIVE) AND THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40
KNOTS AT 12Z NEAR SBN INCREASES TO NEAR 50 KNOTS BY DTW BY TUESDAY
EVENING. WHEN WE ADD THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A 100 KNOT 300 MB JET TO
THE PICTURE AND NEAR NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH... I HAVE TO BELIEVE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE TUESDAY.  I PUT LIKELY POPS FOR
THIS.

THAT SYSTEM TAPS SOME COLD AIR SO WE WOULD GET SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. THE REAL ISSUE IS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HERE WE
HAVE 130 TO 140 KNOT JET DIVING INTO THE ALREADY CREATED EASTERN
TROUGH. HOW THIS PLAYS OUT DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS TO THE UPSTREAM
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.  GIVEN THE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL
WATERS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AND WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA... I AM THINKING THAT SYSTEM WILL BE FARTHER WEST AND
DEEPER SO THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL BE BIGGER AND THERE WILL BE MORE
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST WEATHER BY FAR FOR THIS SEASON SO
FAR. I DID NOT PUT SNOW IN THE GRIDS YET BUT DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SNOW STARTS SHOWING UP THE GRIDS FOR HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

EXPECT SOME IFR IN FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH WIND
JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE. FEEL MOST AREAS WILL STAY IN THE IFR RANGE AND NOT FALL
BELOW 1SM. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE FOG LIFT AND BECOME A IFR
STRATUS DECK. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE MID MORNING AS THE
SUN BURNS IT OFF AND MIXING CONTINUES TO INCREASE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM 14Z ONWARD.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TOWARD 25 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THESE WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WIND WILL BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY...AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE
NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY EVENING. THE FLOW WILL BE
VEERING AND INCREASING WITH TIME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
SUPPORT SOME WAVES BIGGER THAN 4 FEET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RIVER LEVELS
ARE STARTING OUT AROUND AVERAGE WITH THE RECENT DRY WEATHER WE HAVE
HAD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PCPN UNTIL AT LEAST SUN
NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF RAIN NEXT WEEK. EACH OF THESE
RAIN EVENTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH ONLY A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH EACH EVENT. THESE AMOUNTS SPREAD OUT OVER
THE WEEK WILL NOT CAUSE ANY MAJOR RISES ON THE AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...MJS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 250325
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1125 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS IN TONIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
MOVE OUT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR MOVES UP INTO THE AREA. MORE RAIN
WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TEMPERATURES DROPPED OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THIS...COMBINED
WITH A HUMID START TO THE NIGHT ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
TO FORM. I HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO LOWERED IN SOME AREAS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE BETTER THAN ANTICIPATED COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO MAJOR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FCST. CLOUD TRENDS AND THE THREAT OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE THE FIRST
FOCUS...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF WINDOW OF PARTIAL CLEARING TO TAKE
PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT HAS HELD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE BREAKS ARE OPENING UP...AND WE
EXPECT THESE TO EXPAND AS THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO THE FCST FOR TONIGHT AND
EARLY SAT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
MO RIVER AS OF 19Z. THERE IS LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH
THIS NEXT FRONT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT/S FRONT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
AND UPPER JET SUPPORT BOTH STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WEAK LL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WORKING ON A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE PCPN TONIGHT OR
SAT MORNING.

THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 12Z SAT...AND
SHOULD EXIT THE CWFA BY ABOUT 20Z OR SO. SHORTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...THE LOWER CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPS SHOULD
SNEAK INTO THE 60S AS BEST CAA DOES NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL SAT NIGHT.
WE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEN THROUGH SUN EVENING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE BACK IN ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA LATE
ON SUN NIGHT. THE STRONG SYSTEM OFF OF THE PACIFIC NW TODAY WILL
OPEN UP A BIT AND TRANSLATE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS BY
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN A WARM FRONT TO OUR SW AND
DRIVE IT IN HERE LATE SUN NIGHT. A DECENT SURGE OF WARMTH AND
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL HELP TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW. THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ELEVATED LI/S GOING NEGATIVE OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THIS PERIOD IS ONE OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE START OF THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY TO THE END OF THE FORECAST ON HALLOWEEN. A STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THEN WE GET A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY ONLY TO HAVE A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT IN THE THURSDAY
TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

THE REMNANTS OF EXTRATROPICAL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT PACIFIC
TROPICAL STORM ANA NOW LOCATED WELL NW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
MERGES WITH THE PACIFIC SYSTEM  MOVING ON SHORE FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. TYPICALLY THE MODELS UNDERPLAY THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS SO I
WOULD IMAGINE WHAT WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE WILL BE STRONGER AND SLOWER
THEN THE MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW. THAT FAVORS THE LOWER ECMWF SO I
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. ALSO THERE IS
DECENT INSTABILITY (850 LI NEGATIVE) AND THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40
KNOTS AT 12Z NEAR SBN INCREASES TO NEAR 50 KNOTS BY DTW BY TUESDAY
EVENING. WHEN WE ADD THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A 100 KNOT 300 MB JET TO
THE PICTURE AND NEAR NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH... I HAVE TO BELIEVE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE TUESDAY.  I PUT LIKELY POPS FOR
THIS.

THAT SYSTEM TAPS SOME COLD AIR SO WE WOULD GET SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. THE REAL ISSUE IS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HERE WE
HAVE 130 TO 140 KNOT JET DIVING INTO THE ALREADY CREATED EASTERN
TROUGH. HOW THIS PLAYS OUT DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS TO THE UPSTREAM
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.  GIVEN THE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL
WATERS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AND WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA... I AM THINKING THAT SYSTEM WILL BE FARTHER WEST AND
DEEPER SO THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL BE BIGGER AND THERE WILL BE MORE
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST WEATHER BY FAR FOR THIS SEASON SO
FAR. I DID NOT PUT SNOW IN THE GRIDS YET BUT DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SNOW STARTS SHOWING UP THE GRIDS FOR HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE
IMPACT CONDITIONS TONIGHT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF SITES IN
SOUTHWEST MI.

IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT LEADING TO AVIATION IMPACTS. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KMKG AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD GO VFR FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER AS THE ENTIRE REGION COOLS
OFF..THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FOG AND STRATUS TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. I AM CONCERNED THAT THE
IMPACT CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP SOONER THAN FORECASTED. AVIATORS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE SATURDAY...BUT VFR IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WIND WILL BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY...AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE
NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY EVENING. THE FLOW WILL BE
VEERING AND INCREASING WITH TIME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
SUPPORT SOME WAVES BIGGER THAN 4 FEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RIVER LEVELS
ARE STARTING OUT AROUND AVERAGE WITH THE RECENT DRY WEATHER WE HAVE
HAD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PCPN UNTIL AT LEAST SUN
NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF RAIN NEXT WEEK. EACH OF THESE
RAIN EVENTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH ONLY A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH EACH EVENT. THESE AMOUNTS SPREAD OUT OVER
THE WEEK WILL NOT CAUSE ANY MAJOR RISES ON THE AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...MJS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 242303
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
703 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS IN TONIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
MOVE OUT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR MOVES UP INTO THE AREA. MORE RAIN
WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO MAJOR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FCST. CLOUD TRENDS AND THE THREAT OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE THE FIRST
FOCUS...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF WINDOW OF PARTIAL CLEARING TO TAKE
PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT HAS HELD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE BREAKS ARE OPENING UP...AND WE
EXPECT THESE TO EXPAND AS THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO THE FCST FOR TONIGHT AND
EARLY SAT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
MO RIVER AS OF 19Z. THERE IS LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH
THIS NEXT FRONT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT/S FRONT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
AND UPPER JET SUPPORT BOTH STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WEAK LL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WORKING ON A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE PCPN TONIGHT OR
SAT MORNING.

THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 12Z SAT...AND
SHOULD EXIT THE CWFA BY ABOUT 20Z OR SO. SHORTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...THE LOWER CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPS SHOULD
SNEAK INTO THE 60S AS BEST CAA DOES NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL SAT NIGHT.
WE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEN THROUGH SUN EVENING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE BACK IN ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA LATE
ON SUN NIGHT. THE STRONG SYSTEM OFF OF THE PACIFIC NW TODAY WILL
OPEN UP A BIT AND TRANSLATE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS BY
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN A WARM FRONT TO OUR SW AND
DRIVE IT IN HERE LATE SUN NIGHT. A DECENT SURGE OF WARMTH AND
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL HELP TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW. THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ELEVATED LI/S GOING NEGATIVE OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THIS PERIOD IS ONE OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE START OF THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY TO THE END OF THE FORECAST ON HALLOWEEN. A STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THEN WE GET A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY ONLY TO HAVE A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT IN THE THURSDAY
TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

THE REMNANTS OF EXTRATROPICAL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT PACIFIC
TROPICAL STORM ANA NOW LOCATED WELL NW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
MERGES WITH THE PACIFIC SYSTEM  MOVING ON SHORE FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. TYPICALLY THE MODELS UNDERPLAY THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS SO I
WOULD IMAGINE WHAT WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE WILL BE STRONGER AND SLOWER
THEN THE MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW. THAT FAVORS THE LOWER ECMWF SO I
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. ALSO THERE IS
DECENT INSTABILITY (850 LI NEGATIVE) AND THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40
KNOTS AT 12Z NEAR SBN INCREASES TO NEAR 50 KNOTS BY DTW BY TUESDAY
EVENING. WHEN WE ADD THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A 100 KNOT 300 MB JET TO
THE PICTURE AND NEAR NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH... I HAVE TO BELIEVE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE TUESDAY.  I PUT LIKELY POPS FOR
THIS.

THAT SYSTEM TAPS SOME COLD AIR SO WE WOULD GET SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. THE REAL ISSUE IS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HERE WE
HAVE 130 TO 140 KNOT JET DIVING INTO THE ALREADY CREATED EASTERN
TROUGH. HOW THIS PLAYS OUT DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS TO THE UPSTREAM
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.  GIVEN THE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL
WATERS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AND WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA... I AM THINKING THAT SYSTEM WILL BE FARTHER WEST AND
DEEPER SO THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL BE BIGGER AND THERE WILL BE MORE
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST WEATHER BY FAR FOR THIS SEASON SO
FAR. I DID NOT PUT SNOW IN THE GRIDS YET BUT DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SNOW STARTS SHOWING UP THE GRIDS FOR HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE
IMPACT CONDITIONS TONIGHT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF SITES IN
SOUTHWEST MI.

IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT LEADING TO AVIATION IMPACTS. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KMKG AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD GO VFR FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER AS THE ENTIRE REGION COOLS
OFF..THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FOG AND STRATUS TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. I AM CONCERNED THAT THE
IMPACT CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP SOONER THAN FORECASTED. AVIATORS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE SATURDAY...BUT VFR IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EVENT FOR
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. SW WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SAT. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS BY THEN IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT COMING THROUGH. WE
WILL SEE A BETTER CHC OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. IT IS LOOKING LIKELY
WE WILL SEE WINDS AND WAVES HIT CRITERIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE
COMING DOWN ON SUN.

IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON MON AND REMAIN UP
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AT
THAT TIME ALSO.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RIVER LEVELS
ARE STARTING OUT AROUND AVERAGE WITH THE RECENT DRY WEATHER WE HAVE
HAD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PCPN UNTIL AT LEAST SUN
NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF RAIN NEXT WEEK. EACH OF THESE
RAIN EVENTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH ONLY A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH EACH EVENT. THESE AMOUNTS SPREAD OUT OVER
THE WEEK WILL NOT CAUSE ANY MAJOR RISES ON THE AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ








000
FXUS63 KGRR 241927
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS IN TONIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
MOVE OUT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR MOVES UP INTO THE AREA. MORE RAIN
WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO MAJOR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FCST. CLOUD TRENDS AND THE THREAT OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE THE FIRST
FOCUS...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF WINDOW OF PARTIAL CLEARING TO TAKE
PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT HAS HELD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE BREAKS ARE OPENING UP...AND WE
EXPECT THESE TO EXPAND AS THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT.

WE HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO THE FCST FOR TONIGHT AND
EARLY SAT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
MO RIVER AS OF 19Z. THERE IS LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH
THIS NEXT FRONT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT/S FRONT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
AND UPPER JET SUPPORT BOTH STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WEAK LL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WORKING ON A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE PCPN TONIGHT OR
SAT MORNING.

THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 12Z SAT...AND
SHOULD EXIT THE CWFA BY ABOUT 20Z OR SO. SHORTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...THE LOWER CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPS SHOULD
SNEAK INTO THE 60S AS BEST CAA DOES NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL SAT NIGHT.
WE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEN THROUGH SUN EVENING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE BACK IN ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA LATE
ON SUN NIGHT. THE STRONG SYSTEM OFF OF THE PACIFIC NW TODAY WILL
OPEN UP A BIT AND TRANSLATE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS BY
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN A WARM FRONT TO OUR SW AND
DRIVE IT IN HERE LATE SUN NIGHT. A DECENT SURGE OF WARMTH AND
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL HELP TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW. THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ELEVATED LI/S GOING NEGATIVE OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THIS PERIOD IS ONE OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE START OF THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY TO THE END OF THE FORECAST ON HALLOWEEN. A STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THEN WE GET A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY ONLY TO HAVE A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT IN THE THURSDAY
TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

THE REMNANTS OF EXTRATROPICAL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT PACIFIC
TROPICAL STORM ANA NOW LOCATED WELL NW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
MERGES WITH THE PACIFIC SYSTEM  MOVING ON SHORE FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. TYPICALLY THE MODELS UNDERPLAY THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS SO I
WOULD IMAGINE WHAT WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE WILL BE STRONGER AND SLOWER
THEN THE MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW. THAT FAVORS THE LOWER ECMWF SO I
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. ALSO THERE IS
DECENT INSTABILITY (850 LI NEGATIVE) AND THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40
KNOTS AT 12Z NEAR SBN INCREASES TO NEAR 50 KNOTS BY DTW BY TUESDAY
EVENING. WHEN WE ADD THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A 100 KNOT 300 MB JET TO
THE PICTURE AND NEAR NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH... I HAVE TO BELIEVE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE TUESDAY.  I PUT LIKELY POPS FOR
THIS.

THAT SYSTEM TAPS SOME COLD AIR SO WE WOULD GET SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. THE REAL ISSUE IS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HERE WE
HAVE 130 TO 140 KNOT JET DIVING INTO THE ALREADY CREATED EASTERN
TROUGH. HOW THIS PLAYS OUT DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS TO THE UPSTREAM
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.  GIVEN THE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL
WATERS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AND WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA... I AM THINKING THAT SYSTEM WILL BE FARTHER WEST AND
DEEPER SO THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL BE BIGGER AND THERE WILL BE MORE
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST WEATHER BY FAR FOR THIS SEASON SO
FAR. I DID NOT PUT SNOW IN THE GRIDS YET BUT DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SNOW STARTS SHOWING UP THE GRIDS FOR HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON ONLY TO
REDEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT OR SO.

THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE IFR CIGS NORTH AND WEST
OF MKG (OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...LAKE MICHIGAN... AND NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN) OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOPS IT SEEMS THE CLEARING IS WORKING NORTHWARD OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THAT TREND GOES ALONG WITH BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
950 TO 850 MB RH FORECAST WHICH ALSO SHOWS CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. SO THAT IS WHAT I DID WITH THE
TAF FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT. THE NAMDNG5...WHICH I HAVE
NOTED DOES VERY NICELY WITH FORECASTING FOG AND FOR THAT MATTER
SO DOES THE RAP13...BOTH SHOW NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA GOING DOWN IN
FOG BY 09Z. THE PROBLEM THERE THOUGH IS THERE IS 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF
WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THAT WOULD SUGGEST TO ME A STRATUS
DECK IS MORE LIKELY. SO MY TAFS SHOW CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON
THEN I BRING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BACK LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EVENT FOR
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. SW WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SAT. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS BY THEN IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT COMING THROUGH. WE
WILL SEE A BETTER CHC OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. IT IS LOOKING LIKELY
WE WILL SEE WINDS AND WAVES HIT CRITERIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE
COMING DOWN ON SUN.

IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON MON AND REMAIN UP
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AT
THAT TIME ALSO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RIVER LEVELS
ARE STARTING OUT AROUND AVERAGE WITH THE RECENT DRY WEATHER WE HAVE
HAD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PCPN UNTIL AT LEAST SUN
NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF RAIN NEXT WEEK. EACH OF THESE
RAIN EVENTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH ONLY A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH EACH EVENT. THESE AMOUNTS SPREAD OUT OVER
THE WEEK WILL NOT CAUSE ANY MAJOR RISES ON THE AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 241809
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
209 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
WEATHER CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TOPPING OUT AROUND 60 DEGREES EACH DAY. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WARM AIR. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL PUSH TOWARDS 70 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO REAL CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUDS.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS LOCATED UPSTREAM WILL MOVE INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE CLOUDS MAY BE TRYING TO EXIT THE EASTERN
CWA LATE IN THE DAY WITH CLEARING IN THE WEST...BUT THINKING WE WILL
LIKELY HANG ON TO CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT FOR A TIME...BEFORE MOISTURE STREAMS
BACK IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SO...IN
GENERAL A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT...BUT WE SHOULD TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN
MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

THE FRONT ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO TRAVERSE THE AREA DRY. MOISTURE
IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER AND MOST OF THE
DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE IS LOCATED
IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH LITTLE IF ANY VERTICAL MOTION DOWN
OUR WAY. CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
TAKING PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.  MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM AS A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS PUMPS THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION.  A WARM
FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  ALL THE MODELS SHOW SOME
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-96.  I INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
WITH THIS FRONT. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON H8 TEMPS SURGE TO +14C WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS OF 65 TO 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...
POSSIBLY HIGHER...DEPENDENT ON IF ANY SUN COMES THROUGH BEHIND THE
FRONT.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUICKER WITH A COLD FRONT THAT APPEARS TO
COME THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING NOW.  WE SHOULD SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.  THEN...IF THE TIMING  VERIFIES WE
SHOULD SEE FALLING TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H8 TEMPS CRASH.  IN
FACT THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED COLDER BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH H8
TEMPS PLUNGING TO AROUND -1C BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE LOW POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IF THE COLDER TREND CONTINUES WE MAY NEED TO
INCREASE POPS AS SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE THEN.

THE MID WEEK PERIOD LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AS THE LONG
WAVE UPPER TROUGH EXITS AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON ONLY TO
REDEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT OR SO.

THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE IFR CIGS NORTH AND WEST
OF MKG (OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...LAKE MICHIGAN... AND NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN) OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOPS IT SEEMS THE CLEARING IS WORKING NORTHWARD OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THAT TREND GOES ALONG WITH BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
950 TO 850 MB RH FORECAST WHICH ALSO SHOWS CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. SO THAT IS WHAT I DID WITH THE
TAF FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT. THE NAMDNG5...WHICH I HAVE
NOTED DOES VERY NICELY WITH FORECASTING FOG AND FOR THAT MATTER
SO DOES THE RAP13...BOTH SHOW NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA GOING DOWN IN
FOG BY 09Z. THE PROBLEM THERE THOUGH IS THERE IS 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF
WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THAT WOULD SUGGEST TO ME A STRATUS
DECK IS MORE LIKELY. SO MY TAFS SHOW CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON
THEN I BRING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BACK LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS IN CHECK. SOUTH
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD
STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NEXT TIME FRAME
OF CONCERN WILL BE SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHERE WEST AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RAMP INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. WAVES
SHOULD BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. AT THIS POINT WILL HOLD OFF
ON A PERIOD 3 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEED THOUGH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LIMITED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW RIVER
LEVELS AND NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOLID RAIN
COMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRAVERSES THE AREA. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES WHICH
IS ABOVE THE 75 PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
EXPECTED THOUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED WITHOUT ISSUE GIVEN
LOW FLOWS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 241135
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
735 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
WEATHER CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TOPPING OUT AROUND 60 DEGREES EACH DAY. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WARM AIR. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL PUSH TOWARDS 70 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO REAL CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUDS.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS LOCATED UPSTREAM WILL MOVE INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE CLOUDS MAY BE TRYING TO EXIT THE EASTERN
CWA LATE IN THE DAY WITH CLEARING IN THE WEST...BUT THINKING WE WILL
LIKELY HANG ON TO CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT FOR A TIME...BEFORE MOISTURE STREAMS
BACK IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SO...IN
GENERAL A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT...BUT WE SHOULD TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN
MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

THE FRONT ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO TRAVERSE THE AREA DRY. MOISTURE
IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER AND MOST OF THE
DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE IS LOCATED
IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH LITTLE IF ANY VERTICAL MOTION DOWN
OUR WAY. CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
TAKING PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.  MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM AS A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS PUMPS THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION.  A WARM
FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  ALL THE MODELS SHOW SOME
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-96.  I INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
WITH THIS FRONT. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON H8 TEMPS SURGE TO +14C WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS OF 65 TO 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...
POSSIBLY HIGHER...DEPENDENT ON IF ANY SUN COMES THROUGH BEHIND THE
FRONT.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUICKER WITH A COLD FRONT THAT APPEARS TO
COME THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING NOW.  WE SHOULD SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.  THEN...IF THE TIMING  VERIFIES WE
SHOULD SEE FALLING TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H8 TEMPS CRASH.  IN
FACT THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED COLDER BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH H8
TEMPS PLUNGING TO AROUND -1C BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE LOW POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IF THE COLDER TREND CONTINUES WE MAY NEED TO
INCREASE POPS AS SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE THEN.

THE MID WEEK PERIOD LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AS THE LONG
WAVE UPPER TROUGH EXITS AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MVFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY FROM CEILINGS TODAY AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED UPSTREAM ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND THEY WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA
TODAY. NOT EXPECTING IFR AT THIS POINT...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY FOR KAZO...KGRR AND KMKG. TO THE EAST...AT KLAN AND KJXN
NOT THINKING THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST AND
KEPT THEM VFR. THE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING...FROM 20Z TO 00Z. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
FOR A TIME AFTER 00Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING BACK IN LATE
TONIGHT...AFTER 09Z OR SO. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS IN CHECK. SOUTH
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD
STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NEXT TIME FRAME
OF CONCERN WILL BE SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHERE WEST AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RAMP INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. WAVES
SHOULD BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. AT THIS POINT WILL HOLD OFF
ON A PERIOD 3 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEED THOUGH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LIMITED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW RIVER
LEVELS AND NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOLID RAIN
COMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRAVERSES THE AREA. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES WHICH
IS ABOVE THE 75 PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
EXPECTED THOUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED WITHOUT ISSUE GIVEN
LOW FLOWS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 240730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
WEATHER CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TOPPING OUT AROUND 60 DEGREES EACH DAY. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WARM AIR. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL PUSH TOWARDS 70 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO REAL CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUDS.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS LOCATED UPSTREAM WILL MOVE INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE CLOUDS MAY BE TRYING TO EXIT THE EASTERN
CWA LATE IN THE DAY WITH CLEARING IN THE WEST...BUT THINKING WE WILL
LIKELY HANG ON TO CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT FOR A TIME...BEFORE MOISTURE STREAMS
BACK IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SO...IN
GENERAL A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT...BUT WE SHOULD TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN
MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

THE FRONT ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO TRAVERSE THE AREA DRY. MOISTURE
IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER AND MOST OF THE
DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE IS LOCATED
IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH LITTLE IF ANY VERTICAL MOTION DOWN
OUR WAY. CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
TAKING PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.  MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM AS A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS PUMPS THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION.  A WARM
FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  ALL THE MODELS SHOW SOME
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-96.  I INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
WITH THIS FRONT. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON H8 TEMPS SURGE TO +14C WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS OF 65 TO 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...
POSSIBLY HIGHER...DEPENDENT ON IF ANY SUN COMES THROUGH BEHIND THE
FRONT.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUICKER WITH A COLD FRONT THAT APPEARS TO
COME THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING NOW.  WE SHOULD SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.  THEN...IF THE TIMING  VERIFIES WE
SHOULD SEE FALLING TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H8 TEMPS CRASH.  IN
FACT THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED COLDER BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH H8
TEMPS PLUNGING TO AROUND -1C BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE LOW POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IF THE COLDER TREND CONTINUES WE MAY NEED TO
INCREASE POPS AS SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE THEN.

THE MID WEEK PERIOD LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AS THE LONG
WAVE UPPER TROUGH EXITS AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. VERY
LITTLE PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THIS SHOULD
OCCUR ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST 09-10Z AND PUSH FURTHER INLAND
THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY IFR IN FAR WESTERN
MI AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND
WAS NOT PUT IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. MOST OF THE MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD MIX OUT/LIFT BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH VFR EXPECTED
THEREAFTER INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS IN CHECK. SOUTH
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD
STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NEXT TIME FRAME
OF CONCERN WILL BE SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHERE WEST AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RAMP INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. WAVES
SHOULD BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. AT THIS POINT WILL HOLD OFF
ON A PERIOD 3 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEED THOUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LIMITED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW RIVER
LEVELS AND NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOLID RAIN
COMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRAVERSES THE AREA. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES WHICH
IS ABOVE THE 75 PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
EXPECTED THOUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED WITHOUT ISSUE GIVEN
LOW FLOWS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE











000
FXUS63 KGRR 240519
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
119 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A GENERALLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF CHANCES OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
RATHER QUIET FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND
60 OR EVEN IN THE 60S THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME NEXT WEEK DURING THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS FOR TONIGHT. WILL CARRY
LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NW CWFA
INCLUDING LUDINGTON THROUGH 06Z PER LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS. AFTER 06Z WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE NRN CWFA AS THE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE
HAVE KEPT MUCH OF THE SRN CWFA DRY OVERNIGHT WHERE DRIER AIR
SHOULD PREVAIL AND LIMIT THE PRECIP THREAT TO MAINLY JUST A CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WILL NOT FALL MUCH MORE
OVERNIGHT WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER NOW MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE ONLY REAL FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN CHCS FOR
TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT/SAT AND CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY A CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING
AROUND MID EVENING ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND THEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE THE THREAT ENDS. A SOLID AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXISTS AT 19Z FROM NEAR GREEN BAY TO WEST OF MILWAUKEE.
THE EXPECTATION CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE WHOLE LINE SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND ALSO SOUTH AS A PART OF
THE TROUGH DIGS. LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIMINISHES WITH TIME...AND
THE SHOWERS WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE HERE.

WE EXPECT THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRI...BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR A PERIOD FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL BE WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AS IT
ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH AT THAT TIME. WE WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS MOVE
BACK IN FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH. THE FRI NIGHT/SAT SYSTEM HAS A LOT LESS UPPER
SUPPORT IN OUR AREA...SO WE CONTINUE TO RIDE A DRY FCST FOR THAT
TIME FRAME.

CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY ON SAT FROM NW TO SE AS THE
SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

IT WOULD SEEM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD BE WET AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FOR HALLOWEEN.

WE SEEM TO HAVE A SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN. ACTUALLY THIS
SEEMS A TOUCH UNUSUAL TO ME... TYPICALLY THE SPLIT IS OFF THE WEST
COAST AND THE JET IS UNIFIED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC... IN THIS CASE
THE SPLIT IS OVER EASTERN ASIA AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND EVEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. IF
THESE TWO STREAMS OF AIR DO NOT MERGE WITH TIME... THAT WILL KEEP
OUR TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING EITHER TOO WARM OR TOO COLD. THE
OTHER OUTCOME OF THIS IS WE GET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WITH SOME
GULF MOISTURE TO FEED THEM.

OUR SHORT STORY IS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST SHEARS
INTO TWO WAVES... THE FIRST ONE GOES NORTH OF THE CANADA BORDER
AND GIVES US A BRIEF PUSH OF COOLER AIR SUNDAY. THE SECOND PART OF
THE SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. THIS DEVELOPS A
DEEP UPPER WAVE OVER THE MID PART OF THE CONUS BY TUESDAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THIS MAY EVEN CLOSE OFF AT UPPER LEVELS OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS A
DECENT GULF INFLOW AND SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. ALL OF
THIS TELLS ME WE HAVE HAVE A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE
WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON... BUT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY / TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THAT WOULD BE WHERE THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE TOO. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND WITH IT
SO WE MAY SEE GALES IN THE NEAR SHORE DURING THE MON TO WED TIME
FRAME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH IS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING PACIFIC SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY WELL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH SOME SNOW JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. VERY
LITTLE PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THIS SHOULD
OCCUR ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST 09-10Z AND PUSH FURTHER INLAND
THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY IFR IN FAR WESTERN
MI AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND
WAS NOT PUT IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. MOST OF THE MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD MIX OUT/LIFT BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH VFR EXPECTED
THEREAFTER INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WE DO NOT EXPECT TO NEED ANY MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRI. THE PERIOD OF LATER FRI NIGHT AND MORE SO SAT AND BEYOND LOOKS
LIKE THE PERIOD IN WHICH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES IN AND
THROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC OF
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE NEXT
FRONT THAT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY ON MON NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHCS OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND
MON/ WILL INVOLVE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH. THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. EVEN
THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUE/WED DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR RAIN
PRODUCER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ








000
FXUS63 KGRR 240205
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1005 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A GENERALLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF CHANCES OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
RATHER QUIET FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND
60 OR EVEN IN THE 60S THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME NEXT WEEK DURING THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS FOR TONIGHT. WILL CARRY
LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NW CWFA
INCLUDING LUDINGTON THROUGH 06Z PER LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS. AFTER 06Z WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE NRN CWFA AS THE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE
HAVE KEPT MUCH OF THE SRN CWFA DRY OVERNIGHT WHERE DRIER AIR
SHOULD PREVAIL AND LIMIT THE PRECIP THREAT TO MAINLY JUST A CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WILL NOT FALL MUCH MORE
OVERNIGHT WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER NOW MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE ONLY REAL FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN CHCS FOR
TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT/SAT AND CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY A CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING
AROUND MID EVENING ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND THEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE THE THREAT ENDS. A SOLID AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXISTS AT 19Z FROM NEAR GREEN BAY TO WEST OF MILWAUKEE.
THE EXPECTATION CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE WHOLE LINE SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND ALSO SOUTH AS A PART OF
THE TROUGH DIGS. LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIMINISHES WITH TIME...AND
THE SHOWERS WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE HERE.

WE EXPECT THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRI...BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR A PERIOD FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL BE WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AS IT
ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH AT THAT TIME. WE WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS MOVE
BACK IN FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH. THE FRI NIGHT/SAT SYSTEM HAS A LOT LESS UPPER
SUPPORT IN OUR AREA...SO WE CONTINUE TO RIDE A DRY FCST FOR THAT
TIME FRAME.

CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY ON SAT FROM NW TO SE AS THE
SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

IT WOULD SEEM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD BE WET AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FOR HALLOWEEN.

WE SEEM TO HAVE A SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN. ACTUALLY THIS
SEEMS A TOUCH UNUSUAL TO ME... TYPICALLY THE SPLIT IS OFF THE WEST
COAST AND THE JET IS UNIFIED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC... IN THIS CASE
THE SPLIT IS OVER EASTERN ASIA AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND EVEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. IF
THESE TWO STREAMS OF AIR DO NOT MERGE WITH TIME... THAT WILL KEEP
OUR TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING EITHER TOO WARM OR TOO COLD. THE
OTHER OUTCOME OF THIS IS WE GET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WITH SOME
GULF MOISTURE TO FEED THEM.

OUR SHORT STORY IS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST SHEARS
INTO TWO WAVES... THE FIRST ONE GOES NORTH OF THE CANADA BORDER
AND GIVES US A BRIEF PUSH OF COOLER AIR SUNDAY. THE SECOND PART OF
THE SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. THIS DEVELOPS A
DEEP UPPER WAVE OVER THE MID PART OF THE CONUS BY TUESDAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THIS MAY EVEN CLOSE OFF AT UPPER LEVELS OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS A
DECENT GULF INFLOW AND SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. ALL OF
THIS TELLS ME WE HAVE HAVE A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE
WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON... BUT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY / TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THAT WOULD BE WHERE THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE TOO. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND WITH IT
SO WE MAY SEE GALES IN THE NEAR SHORE DURING THE MON TO WED TIME
FRAME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH IS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING PACIFIC SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY WELL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH SOME SNOW JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING BUT WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR
VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LESS TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT SINCE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS IMPACTING THE AREA AND WILL
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

SOME LOWER CIGS WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT COULD IMPACT MKG AND
POSSIBLY GRR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BUT ARE CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN GRR. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE CIGS FALLING TO 3000-4000 FT BY 12Z FRIDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL TREND BACK TO MOSTLY VFR BY 18Z FRIDAY ALTHOUGH
NUMEROUS CIGS OF 3000-4000 FT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LK MI EARLY THIS EVENING MAY IMPACT
MKG BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DRY UP AS THEY MOVE EAST SO DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WE DO NOT EXPECT TO NEED ANY MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRI. THE PERIOD OF LATER FRI NIGHT AND MORE SO SAT AND BEYOND LOOKS
LIKE THE PERIOD IN WHICH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES IN AND
THROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC OF
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE NEXT
FRONT THAT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY ON MON NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHCS OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND
MON/ WILL INVOLVE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH. THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. EVEN
THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUE/WED DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR RAIN
PRODUCER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ








000
FXUS63 KGRR 240205
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1005 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A GENERALLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF CHANCES OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
RATHER QUIET FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND
60 OR EVEN IN THE 60S THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME NEXT WEEK DURING THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS FOR TONIGHT. WILL CARRY
LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NW CWFA
INCLUDING LUDINGTON THROUGH 06Z PER LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS. AFTER 06Z WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE NRN CWFA AS THE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE
HAVE KEPT MUCH OF THE SRN CWFA DRY OVERNIGHT WHERE DRIER AIR
SHOULD PREVAIL AND LIMIT THE PRECIP THREAT TO MAINLY JUST A CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WILL NOT FALL MUCH MORE
OVERNIGHT WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER NOW MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE ONLY REAL FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN CHCS FOR
TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT/SAT AND CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY A CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING
AROUND MID EVENING ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND THEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE THE THREAT ENDS. A SOLID AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXISTS AT 19Z FROM NEAR GREEN BAY TO WEST OF MILWAUKEE.
THE EXPECTATION CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE WHOLE LINE SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND ALSO SOUTH AS A PART OF
THE TROUGH DIGS. LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIMINISHES WITH TIME...AND
THE SHOWERS WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE HERE.

WE EXPECT THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRI...BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR A PERIOD FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL BE WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AS IT
ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH AT THAT TIME. WE WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS MOVE
BACK IN FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH. THE FRI NIGHT/SAT SYSTEM HAS A LOT LESS UPPER
SUPPORT IN OUR AREA...SO WE CONTINUE TO RIDE A DRY FCST FOR THAT
TIME FRAME.

CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY ON SAT FROM NW TO SE AS THE
SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

IT WOULD SEEM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD BE WET AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FOR HALLOWEEN.

WE SEEM TO HAVE A SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN. ACTUALLY THIS
SEEMS A TOUCH UNUSUAL TO ME... TYPICALLY THE SPLIT IS OFF THE WEST
COAST AND THE JET IS UNIFIED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC... IN THIS CASE
THE SPLIT IS OVER EASTERN ASIA AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND EVEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. IF
THESE TWO STREAMS OF AIR DO NOT MERGE WITH TIME... THAT WILL KEEP
OUR TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING EITHER TOO WARM OR TOO COLD. THE
OTHER OUTCOME OF THIS IS WE GET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WITH SOME
GULF MOISTURE TO FEED THEM.

OUR SHORT STORY IS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST SHEARS
INTO TWO WAVES... THE FIRST ONE GOES NORTH OF THE CANADA BORDER
AND GIVES US A BRIEF PUSH OF COOLER AIR SUNDAY. THE SECOND PART OF
THE SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. THIS DEVELOPS A
DEEP UPPER WAVE OVER THE MID PART OF THE CONUS BY TUESDAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THIS MAY EVEN CLOSE OFF AT UPPER LEVELS OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS A
DECENT GULF INFLOW AND SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. ALL OF
THIS TELLS ME WE HAVE HAVE A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE
WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON... BUT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY / TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THAT WOULD BE WHERE THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE TOO. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND WITH IT
SO WE MAY SEE GALES IN THE NEAR SHORE DURING THE MON TO WED TIME
FRAME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH IS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING PACIFIC SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY WELL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH SOME SNOW JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING BUT WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR
VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LESS TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT SINCE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS IMPACTING THE AREA AND WILL
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

SOME LOWER CIGS WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT COULD IMPACT MKG AND
POSSIBLY GRR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BUT ARE CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN GRR. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE CIGS FALLING TO 3000-4000 FT BY 12Z FRIDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL TREND BACK TO MOSTLY VFR BY 18Z FRIDAY ALTHOUGH
NUMEROUS CIGS OF 3000-4000 FT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LK MI EARLY THIS EVENING MAY IMPACT
MKG BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DRY UP AS THEY MOVE EAST SO DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WE DO NOT EXPECT TO NEED ANY MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRI. THE PERIOD OF LATER FRI NIGHT AND MORE SO SAT AND BEYOND LOOKS
LIKE THE PERIOD IN WHICH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES IN AND
THROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC OF
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE NEXT
FRONT THAT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY ON MON NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHCS OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND
MON/ WILL INVOLVE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH. THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. EVEN
THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUE/WED DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR RAIN
PRODUCER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ








000
FXUS63 KGRR 232357
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
757 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A GENERALLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF CHANCES OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
RATHER QUIET FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND
60 OR EVEN IN THE 60S THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME NEXT WEEK DURING THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE ONLY REAL FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN CHCS FOR
TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT/SAT AND CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY A CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING
AROUND MID EVENING ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND THEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE THE THREAT ENDS. A SOLID AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXISTS AT 19Z FROM NEAR GREEN BAY TO WEST OF MILWAUKEE.
THE EXPECTATION CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE WHOLE LINE SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND ALSO SOUTH AS A PART OF
THE TROUGH DIGS. LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIMINISHES WITH TIME...AND
THE SHOWERS WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE HERE.

WE EXPECT THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRI...BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR A PERIOD FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL BE WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AS IT
ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH AT THAT TIME. WE WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS MOVE
BACK IN FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH. THE FRI NIGHT/SAT SYSTEM HAS A LOT LESS UPPER
SUPPORT IN OUR AREA...SO WE CONTINUE TO RIDE A DRY FCST FOR THAT
TIME FRAME.

CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY ON SAT FROM NW TO SE AS THE
SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

IT WOULD SEEM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD BE WET AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FOR HALLOWEEN.

WE SEEM TO HAVE A SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN. ACTUALLY THIS
SEEMS A TOUCH UNUSUAL TO ME... TYPICALLY THE SPLIT IS OFF THE WEST
COAST AND THE JET IS UNIFIED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC... IN THIS CASE
THE SPLIT IS OVER EASTERN ASIA AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND EVEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. IF
THESE TWO STREAMS OF AIR DO NOT MERGE WITH TIME... THAT WILL KEEP
OUR TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING EITHER TOO WARM OR TOO COLD. THE
OTHER OUTCOME OF THIS IS WE GET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WITH SOME
GULF MOISTURE TO FEED THEM.

OUR SHORT STORY IS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST SHEARS
INTO TWO WAVES... THE FIRST ONE GOES NORTH OF THE CANADA BORDER
AND GIVES US A BRIEF PUSH OF COOLER AIR SUNDAY. THE SECOND PART OF
THE SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. THIS DEVELOPS A
DEEP UPPER WAVE OVER THE MID PART OF THE CONUS BY TUESDAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THIS MAY EVEN CLOSE OFF AT UPPER LEVELS OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS A
DECENT GULF INFLOW AND SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. ALL OF
THIS TELLS ME WE HAVE HAVE A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE
WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON... BUT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY / TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THAT WOULD BE WHERE THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE TOO. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND WITH IT
SO WE MAY SEE GALES IN THE NEAR SHORE DURING THE MON TO WED TIME
FRAME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH IS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING PACIFIC SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY WELL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH SOME SNOW JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING BUT WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR
VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LESS TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT SINCE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS IMPACTING THE AREA AND WILL
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

SOME LOWER CIGS WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT COULD IMPACT MKG AND
POSSIBLY GRR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BUT ARE CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN GRR. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE CIGS FALLING TO 3000-4000 FT BY 12Z FRIDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL TREND BACK TO MOSTLY VFR BY 18Z FRIDAY ALTHOUGH
NUMEROUS CIGS OF 3000-4000 FT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LK MI EARLY THIS EVENING MAY IMPACT
MKG BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DRY UP AS THEY MOVE EAST SO DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WE DO NOT EXPECT TO NEED ANY MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRI. THE PERIOD OF LATER FRI NIGHT AND MORE SO SAT AND BEYOND LOOKS
LIKE THE PERIOD IN WHICH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES IN AND
THROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC OF
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE NEXT
FRONT THAT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY ON MON NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHCS OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND
MON/ WILL INVOLVE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH. THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. EVEN
THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUE/WED DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR RAIN
PRODUCER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ








000
FXUS63 KGRR 231924
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A GENERALLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF CHANCES OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
RATHER QUIET FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND
60 OR EVEN IN THE 60S THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME NEXT WEEK DURING THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE ONLY REAL FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN CHCS FOR
TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT/SAT AND CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY A CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING
AROUND MID EVENING ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND THEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE THE THREAT ENDS. A SOLID AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXISTS AT 19Z FROM NEAR GREEN BAY TO WEST OF MILWAUKEE.
THE EXPECTATION CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE WHOLE LINE SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND ALSO SOUTH AS A PART OF
THE TROUGH DIGS. LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIMINISHES WITH TIME...AND
THE SHOWERS WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE HERE.

WE EXPECT THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRI...BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR A PERIOD FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL BE WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AS IT
ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH AT THAT TIME. WE WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS MOVE
BACK IN FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH. THE FRI NIGHT/SAT SYSTEM HAS A LOT LESS UPPER
SUPPORT IN OUR AREA...SO WE CONTINUE TO RIDE A DRY FCST FOR THAT
TIME FRAME.

CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY ON SAT FROM NW TO SE AS THE
SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

IT WOULD SEEM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD BE WET AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FOR HALLOWEEN.

WE SEEM TO HAVE A SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN. ACTUALLY THIS
SEEMS A TOUCH UNUSUAL TO ME... TYPICALLY THE SPLIT IS OFF THE WEST
COAST AND THE JET IS UNIFIED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC... IN THIS CASE
THE SPLIT IS OVER EASTERN ASIA AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND EVEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. IF
THESE TWO STREAMS OF AIR DO NOT MERGE WITH TIME... THAT WILL KEEP
OUR TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING EITHER TO WARM OR TO COLD.  THE OTHER
OUTCOME OF THIS IS WE GET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WITH SOME GULF
MOISTURE TO FEED THEM.

OUR SHORT STORY IS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST SHEARS
INTO TWO WAVES... THE FIRST ONE GOES NORTH OF THE CANADA BOARDER AND
GIVES US A BRIEF PUSH OF COOLER AIR SUNDAY. THE SECOND PART OF THE
SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. THIS DEVELOPS A DEEP
UPPER WAVE OVER THE MID PART OF THE CONUS BY TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION THIS MAY EVEN CLOSE OFF AT UPPER LEVELS OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS A DECENT GULF INFLOW
AND SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS TELLS ME WE HAVE
HAVE A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE WARM FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON... BUT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EVENT TUESDAY / TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THAT WOULD BE
WHERE THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TOO. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND WITH IT SO WE MAY SEE GALES IN THE NEAR SHORE
DURING THE MON TO WED TIME FRAME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH IS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING PACIFIC SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY WELL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH SOME SNOW JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY MIXED OUT AND ALL TAF SITES
ARE VFR. I EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND BRINGS IN AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH IT. WHILE THERE IS CURRENTLY A RAIN AREA WITH
THIS SYSTEM... I AM THINKING THE RAIN AREA WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TAF SITES. I DID PUT VCSH
AT MKG SINCE IT WOULD SEEM THAT WOULD BE THE MOSTLY LIKELY
LOCATION TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. ONCE THE LOW
CLOUDS MOVE IN THEY WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE SO I ALLOWED THE LOW
CEILING AND VISIBILITIES TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WE DO NOT EXPECT TO NEED ANY MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRI. THE PERIOD OF LATER FRI NIGHT AND MORE SO SAT AND BEYOND LOOKS
LIKE THE PERIOD IN WHICH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES IN AND
THROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC OF
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE NEXT
FRONT THAT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY ON MON NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHCS OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND
MON/ WILL INVOLVE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH. THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. EVEN
THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUE/WED DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR RAIN
PRODUCER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 231924
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A GENERALLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF CHANCES OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
RATHER QUIET FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND
60 OR EVEN IN THE 60S THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME NEXT WEEK DURING THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE ONLY REAL FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN CHCS FOR
TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT/SAT AND CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY A CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING
AROUND MID EVENING ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND THEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE THE THREAT ENDS. A SOLID AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXISTS AT 19Z FROM NEAR GREEN BAY TO WEST OF MILWAUKEE.
THE EXPECTATION CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE WHOLE LINE SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND ALSO SOUTH AS A PART OF
THE TROUGH DIGS. LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIMINISHES WITH TIME...AND
THE SHOWERS WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE HERE.

WE EXPECT THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRI...BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR A PERIOD FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL BE WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AS IT
ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH AT THAT TIME. WE WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS MOVE
BACK IN FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH. THE FRI NIGHT/SAT SYSTEM HAS A LOT LESS UPPER
SUPPORT IN OUR AREA...SO WE CONTINUE TO RIDE A DRY FCST FOR THAT
TIME FRAME.

CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY ON SAT FROM NW TO SE AS THE
SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

IT WOULD SEEM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD BE WET AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FOR HALLOWEEN.

WE SEEM TO HAVE A SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN. ACTUALLY THIS
SEEMS A TOUCH UNUSUAL TO ME... TYPICALLY THE SPLIT IS OFF THE WEST
COAST AND THE JET IS UNIFIED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC... IN THIS CASE
THE SPLIT IS OVER EASTERN ASIA AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND EVEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. IF
THESE TWO STREAMS OF AIR DO NOT MERGE WITH TIME... THAT WILL KEEP
OUR TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING EITHER TO WARM OR TO COLD.  THE OTHER
OUTCOME OF THIS IS WE GET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WITH SOME GULF
MOISTURE TO FEED THEM.

OUR SHORT STORY IS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST SHEARS
INTO TWO WAVES... THE FIRST ONE GOES NORTH OF THE CANADA BOARDER AND
GIVES US A BRIEF PUSH OF COOLER AIR SUNDAY. THE SECOND PART OF THE
SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. THIS DEVELOPS A DEEP
UPPER WAVE OVER THE MID PART OF THE CONUS BY TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION THIS MAY EVEN CLOSE OFF AT UPPER LEVELS OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS A DECENT GULF INFLOW
AND SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS TELLS ME WE HAVE
HAVE A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE WARM FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON... BUT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EVENT TUESDAY / TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THAT WOULD BE
WHERE THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TOO. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND WITH IT SO WE MAY SEE GALES IN THE NEAR SHORE
DURING THE MON TO WED TIME FRAME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH IS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING PACIFIC SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY WELL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH SOME SNOW JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY MIXED OUT AND ALL TAF SITES
ARE VFR. I EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND BRINGS IN AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH IT. WHILE THERE IS CURRENTLY A RAIN AREA WITH
THIS SYSTEM... I AM THINKING THE RAIN AREA WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TAF SITES. I DID PUT VCSH
AT MKG SINCE IT WOULD SEEM THAT WOULD BE THE MOSTLY LIKELY
LOCATION TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. ONCE THE LOW
CLOUDS MOVE IN THEY WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE SO I ALLOWED THE LOW
CEILING AND VISIBILITIES TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WE DO NOT EXPECT TO NEED ANY MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRI. THE PERIOD OF LATER FRI NIGHT AND MORE SO SAT AND BEYOND LOOKS
LIKE THE PERIOD IN WHICH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES IN AND
THROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC OF
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE NEXT
FRONT THAT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY ON MON NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHCS OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND
MON/ WILL INVOLVE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH. THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. EVEN
THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUE/WED DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR RAIN
PRODUCER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ







000
FXUS63 KGRR 231721
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
121 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET BY OCTOBER STANDARDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TONIGHT A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WE HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO COME TO AN END ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW OBSERVATIONS AT THE AIRPORTS
STILL INDICATING VSBYS AROUND 1/4SM...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY IMPROVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. AN EXAMPLE IS KGRR
STILL REPORTING 3/4SM AT 1416Z...HOWEVER CONDITIONS AROUND MOST OF THE
AIRPORT HAVE IMPROVED MUCH MORE AT THE SAME TIME.

WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE DAY TODAY. MOST OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS COMING IN
AFTER 00Z ACROSS THE LAKESHORE. WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE
RAIN SHOWERS IN WI MOVING MORE NORTH THAN EAST...IT WILL TAKE A
WHILE FOR PCPN TO MAKE IT TO THE AREA. ALSO...A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE WILL ERODE THE PCPN AS IT TRIES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA..

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 1000 AM. FOG HAS EXPANDED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST HALF
HOUR WITH STRATUS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE FOG SATELLITE
PRODUCT WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG. HAVE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITIES IN ALL AREAS NOW AND IT WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO
AREAS NOT CURRENTLY SEEING IT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN PLACE
IN THE LOWEST 50MB/S PER THE RUC13 AND THIS SHOULD ADVECT IT EVEN
TO THE LAKESHORE AREAS WITH TIME. WE STILL HAVE ABOUT 2.5 HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...SO IT SHOULD EXPAND AND BECOME MORE DENSE. NPWGRR
IS ALREADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THE FOCUS WAS ON EXTENT OF
FOG THIS MORNING...CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FOG...THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND
FOG THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SITES ARE CURRENTLY AT A QUARTER OF A MILE
VISIBILITY SO WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WHETHER OR NOT IT EXPANDS
AND BECOMES WORTHY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS AT STRATUS FORMING.

REGARDING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...IT LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...30/40 PCT CHANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE DAKOTAS MOVES THROUGH OUT REGION TONIGHT. SOME WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS AT 850MB/S ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. FEEL
THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR EARLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
131...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND ENDING.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY COME LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER...BUT THERE IS A PUSH OF SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT
AS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WE WILL SEE ANYTHING.

OTHERWISE...QUIET TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG. WE SHOULD
BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PEELS OFF TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST.  THE CHILLY TEMPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS THIS
OCCURS WITH SOLID WARM ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...BUT WE SHOULD SEE WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS ARRIVE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WARMUP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.  THE
VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HELP PUMP
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE REGION.  THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO MID WEEK BUT IT APPEARS
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  SO THE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD PEAK IN THIS TIME FRAME.  ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS EXPECTED WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.  IT SHOULD TURN COLDER AGAIN ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY MIXED OUT AND ALL TAF SITES
ARE VFR. I EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND BRINGS IN AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH IT. WHILE THERE IS CURRENTLY A RAIN AREA WITH
THIS SYSTEM... I AM THINKING THE RAIN AREA WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TAF SITES. I DID PUT VCSH
AT MKG SINCE IT WOULD SEEM THAT WOULD BE THE MOSTLY LIKELY
LOCATION TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. ONCE THE LOW
CLOUDS MOVE IN THEY WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE SO I ALLOWED THE LOW
CEILING AND VISIBILITIES TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO MARINE CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS AND WAVES BECOMING AN ISSUE WILL BE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY...20-30 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL
BOOST WAVE HEIGHTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY
LIMITED RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TOTALS MORE THAN 0.05 ANYWHERE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER LEVELS
REMAIN LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 231419
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1019 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET BY OCTOBER STANDARDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TONIGHT A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WE HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO COME TO AN END ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW OBSERVATIONS AT THE AIRPORTS
STILL INDICATING VSBYS AROUND 1/4SM...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY IMPROVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. AN EXAMPLE IS KGRR
STILL REPORTING 3/4SM AT 1416Z...HOWEVER CONDITIONS AROUND MOST OF THE
AIRPORT HAVE IMPROVED MUCH MORE AT THE SAME TIME.

WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE DAY TODAY. MOST OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS COMING IN
AFTER 00Z ACROSS THE LAKESHORE. WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE
RAIN SHOWERS IN WI MOVING MORE NORTH THAN EAST...IT WILL TAKE A
WHILE FOR PCPN TO MAKE IT TO THE AREA. ALSO...A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE WILL ERODE THE PCPN AS IT TRIES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA..

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 1000 AM. FOG HAS EXPANDED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST HALF
HOUR WITH STRATUS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE FOG SATELLITE
PRODUCT WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG. HAVE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITIES IN ALL AREAS NOW AND IT WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO
AREAS NOT CURRENTLY SEEING IT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN PLACE
IN THE LOWEST 50MB/S PER THE RUC13 AND THIS SHOULD ADVECT IT EVEN
TO THE LAKESHORE AREAS WITH TIME. WE STILL HAVE ABOUT 2.5 HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...SO IT SHOULD EXPAND AND BECOME MORE DENSE. NPWGRR
IS ALREADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THE FOCUS WAS ON EXTENT OF
FOG THIS MORNING...CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FOG...THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND
FOG THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SITES ARE CURRENTLY AT A QUARTER OF A MILE
VISIBILITY SO WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WHETHER OR NOT IT EXPANDS
AND BECOMES WORTHY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS AT STRATUS FORMING.

REGARDING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...IT LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...30/40 PCT CHANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE DAKOTAS MOVES THROUGH OUT REGION TONIGHT. SOME WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS AT 850MB/S ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. FEEL
THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR EARLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
131...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND ENDING.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY COME LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER...BUT THERE IS A PUSH OF SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT
AS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WE WILL SEE ANYTHING.

OTHERWISE...QUIET TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG. WE SHOULD
BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PEELS OFF TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST.  THE CHILLY TEMPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS THIS
OCCURS WITH SOLID WARM ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...BUT WE SHOULD SEE WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS ARRIVE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WARMUP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.  THE
VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HELP PUMP
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE REGION.  THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO MID WEEK BUT IT APPEARS
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  SO THE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD PEAK IN THIS TIME FRAME.  ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS EXPECTED WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.  IT SHOULD TURN COLDER AGAIN ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT VFR WEATHER IS
FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
CLOUDS LOWER TO BASES AROUND 5000FT AFTER DARK. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD IN THIS EVENING AS WELL. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL TRY TO
SETTLE IN TONIGHT AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER WITH TIME.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO MARINE CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS AND WAVES BECOMING AN ISSUE WILL BE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY...20-30 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL
BOOST WAVE HEIGHTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY
LIMITED RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TOTALS MORE THAN 0.05 ANYWHERE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER LEVELS
REMAIN LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE








000
FXUS63 KGRR 231135
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
735 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET BY OCTOBER STANDARDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TONIGHT A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 1000 AM. FOG HAS EXPANDED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST HALF
HOUR WITH STRATUS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE FOG SATELLITE
PRODUCT WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG. HAVE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITIES IN ALL AREAS NOW AND IT WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO
AREAS NOT CURRENTLY SEEING IT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN PLACE
IN THE LOWEST 50MB/S PER THE RUC13 AND THIS SHOULD ADVECT IT EVEN
TO THE LAKESHORE AREAS WITH TIME. WE STILL HAVE ABOUT 2.5 HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...SO IT SHOULD EXPAND AND BECOME MORE DENSE. NPWGRR
IS ALREADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THE FOCUS WAS ON EXTENT OF
FOG THIS MORNING...CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FOG...THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND
FOG THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SITES ARE CURRENTLY AT A QUARTER OF A MILE
VISIBILITY SO WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WHETHER OR NOT IT EXPANDS
AND BECOMES WORTHY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS AT STRATUS FORMING.

REGARDING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...IT LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...30/40 PCT CHANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE DAKOTAS MOVES THROUGH OUT REGION TONIGHT. SOME WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS AT 850MB/S ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. FEEL
THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR EARLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
131...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND ENDING.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY COME LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER...BUT THERE IS A PUSH OF SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT
AS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WE WILL SEE ANYTHING.

OTHERWISE...QUIET TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG. WE SHOULD
BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PEELS OFF TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST.  THE CHILLY TEMPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS THIS
OCCURS WITH SOLID WARM ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...BUT WE SHOULD SEE WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS ARRIVE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WARMUP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.  THE
VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HELP PUMP
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE REGION.  THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO MID WEEK BUT IT APPEARS
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  SO THE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD PEAK IN THIS TIME FRAME.  ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS EXPECTED WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.  IT SHOULD TURN COLDER AGAIN ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT VFR WEATHER IS
FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
CLOUDS LOWER TO BASES AROUND 5000FT AFTER DARK. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD IN THIS EVENING AS WELL. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL TRY TO
SETTLE IN TONIGHT AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER WITH TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO MARINE CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS AND WAVES BECOMING AN ISSUE WILL BE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY...20-30 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL
BOOST WAVE HEIGHTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY
LIMITED RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TOTALS MORE THAN 0.05 ANYWHERE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER LEVELS
REMAIN LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE








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