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000
FXUS63 KGRR 210201
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
901 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WITH
LOWS IN THE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CLOSER TO 20
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WILL FINALLY END THE
SNOW SHOWERS BY MID MORNING AND BRING SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND THAT WILL MEAN FREEZING RAIN CHANGING
TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING THEN LIGHT RAIN THE REST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT
RAIN TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH GUSTY WINDS. MONDAY THE COLD AIR
COMES BACK AND RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE IN PLACE
AGAIN THE COLD AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST
OF THANKSGIVING WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WE ARE IN THE PROCESS OF CHIPPING AWAY AT THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THIS EVENING BY TAKING OUT THE FOUR NRN COUNTIES IN THE
ADVISORY. WE WILL BE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY UP FOR
THE TIME BEING THINKING THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE REMAINDER
OF IT WILL BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED WITH THE OVERNIGHT FCST PACKAGE.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS UP NORTH THIS
EVENING. THE BEST BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM OTTAWA
COUNTY...AND INTO SRN KENT...FAR NE ALLEGAN...AND FAR NW BARRY
COUNTY AS OF 02Z. THIS BAND IS SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEST WITH TIME
AS THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NW TONIGHT.

ALL SNOW BANDS WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA RESULTING IN LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WE WILL
SEE SOME ACCUMULATION WITH THIS BAND SINKING SOUTH EARLY ON...BUT
THE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 553 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATED TO END THE ADVISORY EARLY FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES. KGRR-
88D HAS SHOWN A STEADY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE EAST OF GRAND
RAPIDS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE TWO BIG ISSUES FOR THIS FORECAST IS WHEN WILL THE SNOW SHOWERS
FINALLY END AND WILL WE HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN
SATURDAY MORNING?

A POWERFUL 160 TO 180 KNOT PACIFIC JET CORE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST COAST AS I WRITE THIS. THAT JET CORE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND IN TURN BOOTS THE DEEP UPPER LOW
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS
ALLOWS THE ASSOCIATED SYSTEM WITH THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET CORE TO
DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH COMES OUT OF THAT FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS WHAT CREATES THE WARM UP AND RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT ON FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
HAS BEEN EXCELLENT THE PAST FEW DAYS. SO THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION
WE WILL GET THE WARM AIR SURGE THIS WEEKEND...MELTING MOST OF THE
SNOW COVER.

THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR DOES NOT COME IN UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THE UPPER JET AXIS DOES NOT CROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
UNTIL MID MORNING FRIDAY. SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER AS WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DEPARTS...WINDS WILL TURN
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THAT WILL REORGANIZE THE SNOW SHOWERS TO
BE MORE MOSTLY NEAR US-131 ONCE THE SUN SETS. I COULD STILL SEE 3
TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FALL IN SOME AREAS FROM THESE SNOW BEFORE
THIS ALL COMES TO AN END BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY I WOULD EXPECT
SOME SUNSHINE TO RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL IN THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR WHICH MEANS A STRONG SHALLOW INVERSION... SO
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD...EVEN WITH THE SUN COMING OUT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THE DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS AS
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HEADS FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THE
1000 TO 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE AMID THIS WAY. THE LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS BRINGS THE 900 TO 800 MB DEW POINTS
INTO THE LOWER 40S BY SATURDAY MORNING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO NEAR .7 INCHES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THAT WILL HELP THE CAUSE OF BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. ALL OF THIS TELLS ME WE WILL LIKELY SEE PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY MORNING (STARTING BEFORE SUNRISE) AND THAT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. SINCE THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO... LIKELY WE WILL SEE
A FEW HOURS OF MIXED FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. BY MID DAY
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA SO
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE WARM AIR
COMING IN OVER THE SNOW PACK I WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG TO (I DID NOT
YET PUT THIS IN OUR GRIDS THROUGH).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THEY ARE CURRENTLY...BUT STILL RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 40S AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL SEE QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SPREAD RAIN OVER THE CWA SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT.
TOTAL RAINFALL NEAR AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR FLOODING. IT/S ALSO GOING TO ADD WEIGHT TO ROOFS AS THE
SNOW PACK ABSORBS IT. TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT REMAIN IN THE 40S. AFTER THE LOW MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FLOW IN BEHIND IT. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY.

A VERY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY TUESDAY ENSURING A SUPPLY OF COLD AIR FLOWS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. H8 TEMPS BY 0Z TUESDAY ARE PROGD TO BE NEAR -10C AND FALL TO
AROUND -15C BY TUESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MOST PLACES WITH PATCHY IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN ABOUT
40 MILES EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. EXPECT VFR
EVERYWHERE STARTING FRIDAY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING AND
STRATUS CLOUDS FINALLY BREAKING UP.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LET UP AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BUT ONCE THE HIGH MOVES
TO THE EAST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN THE NEED FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WE ARE STILL MONITORING THE FLOOD THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND AS
AROUND A INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER OUR CURRENT SNOW
PACK. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NCRFC INDICATES NONE OF OUR
RIVERS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BUT WE MAY WELL HAVE SOME
MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING NONE THE LESS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ050-056-057-
     064-065-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 210201
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
901 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WITH
LOWS IN THE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CLOSER TO 20
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WILL FINALLY END THE
SNOW SHOWERS BY MID MORNING AND BRING SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND THAT WILL MEAN FREEZING RAIN CHANGING
TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING THEN LIGHT RAIN THE REST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT
RAIN TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH GUSTY WINDS. MONDAY THE COLD AIR
COMES BACK AND RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE IN PLACE
AGAIN THE COLD AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST
OF THANKSGIVING WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WE ARE IN THE PROCESS OF CHIPPING AWAY AT THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THIS EVENING BY TAKING OUT THE FOUR NRN COUNTIES IN THE
ADVISORY. WE WILL BE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY UP FOR
THE TIME BEING THINKING THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE REMAINDER
OF IT WILL BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED WITH THE OVERNIGHT FCST PACKAGE.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS UP NORTH THIS
EVENING. THE BEST BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM OTTAWA
COUNTY...AND INTO SRN KENT...FAR NE ALLEGAN...AND FAR NW BARRY
COUNTY AS OF 02Z. THIS BAND IS SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEST WITH TIME
AS THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NW TONIGHT.

ALL SNOW BANDS WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA RESULTING IN LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WE WILL
SEE SOME ACCUMULATION WITH THIS BAND SINKING SOUTH EARLY ON...BUT
THE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 553 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATED TO END THE ADVISORY EARLY FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES. KGRR-
88D HAS SHOWN A STEADY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE EAST OF GRAND
RAPIDS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE TWO BIG ISSUES FOR THIS FORECAST IS WHEN WILL THE SNOW SHOWERS
FINALLY END AND WILL WE HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN
SATURDAY MORNING?

A POWERFUL 160 TO 180 KNOT PACIFIC JET CORE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST COAST AS I WRITE THIS. THAT JET CORE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND IN TURN BOOTS THE DEEP UPPER LOW
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS
ALLOWS THE ASSOCIATED SYSTEM WITH THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET CORE TO
DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH COMES OUT OF THAT FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS WHAT CREATES THE WARM UP AND RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT ON FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
HAS BEEN EXCELLENT THE PAST FEW DAYS. SO THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION
WE WILL GET THE WARM AIR SURGE THIS WEEKEND...MELTING MOST OF THE
SNOW COVER.

THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR DOES NOT COME IN UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THE UPPER JET AXIS DOES NOT CROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
UNTIL MID MORNING FRIDAY. SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER AS WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DEPARTS...WINDS WILL TURN
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THAT WILL REORGANIZE THE SNOW SHOWERS TO
BE MORE MOSTLY NEAR US-131 ONCE THE SUN SETS. I COULD STILL SEE 3
TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FALL IN SOME AREAS FROM THESE SNOW BEFORE
THIS ALL COMES TO AN END BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY I WOULD EXPECT
SOME SUNSHINE TO RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL IN THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR WHICH MEANS A STRONG SHALLOW INVERSION... SO
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD...EVEN WITH THE SUN COMING OUT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THE DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS AS
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HEADS FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THE
1000 TO 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE AMID THIS WAY. THE LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS BRINGS THE 900 TO 800 MB DEW POINTS
INTO THE LOWER 40S BY SATURDAY MORNING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO NEAR .7 INCHES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THAT WILL HELP THE CAUSE OF BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. ALL OF THIS TELLS ME WE WILL LIKELY SEE PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY MORNING (STARTING BEFORE SUNRISE) AND THAT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. SINCE THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO... LIKELY WE WILL SEE
A FEW HOURS OF MIXED FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. BY MID DAY
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA SO
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE WARM AIR
COMING IN OVER THE SNOW PACK I WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG TO (I DID NOT
YET PUT THIS IN OUR GRIDS THROUGH).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THEY ARE CURRENTLY...BUT STILL RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 40S AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL SEE QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SPREAD RAIN OVER THE CWA SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT.
TOTAL RAINFALL NEAR AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR FLOODING. IT/S ALSO GOING TO ADD WEIGHT TO ROOFS AS THE
SNOW PACK ABSORBS IT. TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT REMAIN IN THE 40S. AFTER THE LOW MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FLOW IN BEHIND IT. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY.

A VERY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY TUESDAY ENSURING A SUPPLY OF COLD AIR FLOWS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. H8 TEMPS BY 0Z TUESDAY ARE PROGD TO BE NEAR -10C AND FALL TO
AROUND -15C BY TUESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MOST PLACES WITH PATCHY IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN ABOUT
40 MILES EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. EXPECT VFR
EVERYWHERE STARTING FRIDAY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING AND
STRATUS CLOUDS FINALLY BREAKING UP.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LET UP AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BUT ONCE THE HIGH MOVES
TO THE EAST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN THE NEED FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WE ARE STILL MONITORING THE FLOOD THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND AS
AROUND A INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER OUR CURRENT SNOW
PACK. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NCRFC INDICATES NONE OF OUR
RIVERS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BUT WE MAY WELL HAVE SOME
MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING NONE THE LESS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ050-056-057-
     064-065-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM









000
FXUS63 KGRR 202335
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
635 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WITH
LOWS IN THE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CLOSER TO 20
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WILL FINALLY END THE
SNOW SHOWERS BY MID MORNING AND BRING SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND THAT WILL MEAN FREEZING RAIN CHANGING
TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING THEN LIGHT RAIN THE REST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT
RAIN TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH GUSTY WINDS. MONDAY THE COLD AIR
COMES BACK AND RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE IN PLACE
AGAIN THE COLD AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST
OF THANKSGIVING WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATED TO END THE ADVISORY EARLY FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES. KGRR-
88D HAS SHOWN A STEADY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE EAST OF GRAND
RAPIDS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE TWO BIG ISSUES FOR THIS FORECAST IS WHEN WILL THE SNOW SHOWERS
FINALLY END AND WILL WE HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN
SATURDAY MORNING?

A POWERFUL 160 TO 180 KNOT PACIFIC JET CORE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST COAST AS I WRITE THIS. THAT JET CORE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND IN TURN BOOTS THE DEEP UPPER LOW
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS
ALLOWS THE ASSOCIATED SYSTEM WITH THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET CORE TO
DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH COMES OUT OF THAT FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS WHAT CREATES THE WARM UP AND RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT ON FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
HAS BEEN EXCELLENT THE PAST FEW DAYS. SO THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION
WE WILL GET THE WARM AIR SURGE THIS WEEKEND...MELTING MOST OF THE
SNOW COVER.

THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR DOES NOT COME IN UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THE UPPER JET AXIS DOES NOT CROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
UNTIL MID MORNING FRIDAY. SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER AS WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DEPARTS...WINDS WILL TURN
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THAT WILL REORGANIZE THE SNOW SHOWERS TO
BE MORE MOSTLY NEAR US-131 ONCE THE SUN SETS. I COULD STILL SEE 3
TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FALL IN SOME AREAS FROM THESE SNOW BEFORE
THIS ALL COMES TO AN END BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY I WOULD EXPECT
SOME SUNSHINE TO RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL IN THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR WHICH MEANS A STRONG SHALLOW INVERSION... SO
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD...EVEN WITH THE SUN COMING OUT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THE DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS AS
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HEADS FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THE
1000 TO 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE AMID THIS WAY. THE LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS BRINGS THE 900 TO 800 MB DEW POINTS
INTO THE LOWER 40S BY SATURDAY MORNING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO NEAR .7 INCHES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THAT WILL HELP THE CAUSE OF BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. ALL OF THIS TELLS ME WE WILL LIKELY SEE PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY MORNING (STARTING BEFORE SUNRISE) AND THAT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. SINCE THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO... LIKELY WE WILL SEE
A FEW HOURS OF MIXED FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. BY MID DAY
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA SO
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE WARM AIR
COMING IN OVER THE SNOW PACK I WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG TO (I DID NOT
YET PUT THIS IN OUR GRIDS THROUGH).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THEY ARE CURRENTLY...BUT STILL RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 40S AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL SEE QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SPREAD RAIN OVER THE CWA SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT.
TOTAL RAINFALL NEAR AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR FLOODING. IT/S ALSO GOING TO ADD WEIGHT TO ROOFS AS THE
SNOW PACK ABSORBS IT. TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT REMAIN IN THE 40S. AFTER THE LOW MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FLOW IN BEHIND IT. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY.

A VERY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY TUESDAY ENSURING A SUPPLY OF COLD AIR FLOWS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. H8 TEMPS BY 0Z TUESDAY ARE PROGD TO BE NEAR -10C AND FALL TO
AROUND -15C BY TUESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MOST PLACES WITH PATCHY IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN ABOUT
40 MILES EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. EXPECT VFR
EVERYWHERE STARTING FRIDAY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING AND
STRATUS CLOUDS FINALLY BREAKING UP.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LET UP AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BUT ONCE THE HIGH MOVES
TO THE EAST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN THE NEED FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WE ARE STILL MONITORING THE FLOOD THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND AS
AROUND A INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER OUR CURRENT SNOW
PACK. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NCRFC INDICATES NONE OF OUR
RIVERS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BUT WE MAY WELL HAVE SOME
MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING NONE THE LESS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 202256
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
556 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WITH
LOWS IN THE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CLOSER TO 20
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WILL FINALLY END THE
SNOW SHOWERS BY MID MORNING AND BRING SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND THAT WILL MEAN FREEZING RAIN CHANGING
TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING THEN LIGHT RAIN THE REST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT
RAIN TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH GUSTY WINDS. MONDAY THE COLD AIR
COMES BACK AND RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE IN PLACE
AGAIN THE COLD AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST
OF THANKSGIVING WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATED TO END THE ADVISORY EARLY FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES. KGRR-
88D HAS SHOWN A STEADY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE EAST OF GRAND
RAPIDS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE TWO BIG ISSUES FOR THIS FORECAST IS WHEN WILL THE SNOW SHOWERS
FINALLY END AND WILL WE HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN
SATURDAY MORNING?

A POWERFUL 160 TO 180 KNOT PACIFIC JET CORE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST COAST AS I WRITE THIS. THAT JET CORE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND IN TURN BOOTS THE DEEP UPPER LOW
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS
ALLOWS THE ASSOCIATED SYSTEM WITH THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET CORE TO
DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH COMES OUT OF THAT FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS WHAT CREATES THE WARM UP AND RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT ON FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
HAS BEEN EXCELLENT THE PAST FEW DAYS. SO THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION
WE WILL GET THE WARM AIR SURGE THIS WEEKEND...MELTING MOST OF THE
SNOW COVER.

THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR DOES NOT COME IN UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THE UPPER JET AXIS DOES NOT CROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
UNTIL MID MORNING FRIDAY. SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER AS WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DEPARTS...WINDS WILL TURN
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THAT WILL REORGANIZE THE SNOW SHOWERS TO
BE MORE MOSTLY NEAR US-131 ONCE THE SUN SETS. I COULD STILL SEE 3
TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FALL IN SOME AREAS FROM THESE SNOW BEFORE
THIS ALL COMES TO AN END BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY I WOULD EXPECT
SOME SUNSHINE TO RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL IN THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR WHICH MEANS A STRONG SHALLOW INVERSION... SO
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD...EVEN WITH THE SUN COMING OUT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THE DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS AS
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HEADS FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THE
1000 TO 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE AMID THIS WAY. THE LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS BRINGS THE 900 TO 800 MB DEW POINTS
INTO THE LOWER 40S BY SATURDAY MORNING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO NEAR .7 INCHES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THAT WILL HELP THE CAUSE OF BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. ALL OF THIS TELLS ME WE WILL LIKELY SEE PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY MORNING (STARTING BEFORE SUNRISE) AND THAT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. SINCE THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO... LIKELY WE WILL SEE
A FEW HOURS OF MIXED FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. BY MID DAY
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA SO
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE WARM AIR
COMING IN OVER THE SNOW PACK I WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG TO (I DID NOT
YET PUT THIS IN OUR GRIDS THROUGH).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THEY ARE CURRENTLY...BUT STILL RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 40S AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL SEE QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SPREAD RAIN OVER THE CWA SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT.
TOTAL RAINFALL NEAR AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR FLOODING. IT/S ALSO GOING TO ADD WEIGHT TO ROOFS AS THE
SNOW PACK ABSORBS IT. TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT REMAIN IN THE 40S. AFTER THE LOW MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FLOW IN BEHIND IT. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY.

A VERY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY TUESDAY ENSURING A SUPPLY OF COLD AIR FLOWS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. H8 TEMPS BY 0Z TUESDAY ARE PROGD TO BE NEAR -10C AND FALL TO
AROUND -15C BY TUESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIDE VARIABILITY IS EXPECTED IN VSBY AS THE SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE IN AND OUT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING BUT GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LET UP AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BUT ONCE THE HIGH MOVES
TO THE EAST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN THE NEED FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WE ARE STILL MONITORING THE FLOOD THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND AS
AROUND A INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER OUR CURRENT SNOW
PACK. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NCRFC INDICATES NONE OF OUR
RIVERS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BUT WE MAY WELL HAVE SOME
MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING NONE THE LESS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 202256
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
556 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WITH
LOWS IN THE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CLOSER TO 20
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WILL FINALLY END THE
SNOW SHOWERS BY MID MORNING AND BRING SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND THAT WILL MEAN FREEZING RAIN CHANGING
TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING THEN LIGHT RAIN THE REST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT
RAIN TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH GUSTY WINDS. MONDAY THE COLD AIR
COMES BACK AND RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE IN PLACE
AGAIN THE COLD AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST
OF THANKSGIVING WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATED TO END THE ADVISORY EARLY FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES. KGRR-
88D HAS SHOWN A STEADY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE EAST OF GRAND
RAPIDS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE TWO BIG ISSUES FOR THIS FORECAST IS WHEN WILL THE SNOW SHOWERS
FINALLY END AND WILL WE HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN
SATURDAY MORNING?

A POWERFUL 160 TO 180 KNOT PACIFIC JET CORE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST COAST AS I WRITE THIS. THAT JET CORE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND IN TURN BOOTS THE DEEP UPPER LOW
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS
ALLOWS THE ASSOCIATED SYSTEM WITH THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET CORE TO
DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH COMES OUT OF THAT FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS WHAT CREATES THE WARM UP AND RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT ON FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
HAS BEEN EXCELLENT THE PAST FEW DAYS. SO THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION
WE WILL GET THE WARM AIR SURGE THIS WEEKEND...MELTING MOST OF THE
SNOW COVER.

THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR DOES NOT COME IN UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THE UPPER JET AXIS DOES NOT CROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
UNTIL MID MORNING FRIDAY. SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER AS WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DEPARTS...WINDS WILL TURN
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THAT WILL REORGANIZE THE SNOW SHOWERS TO
BE MORE MOSTLY NEAR US-131 ONCE THE SUN SETS. I COULD STILL SEE 3
TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FALL IN SOME AREAS FROM THESE SNOW BEFORE
THIS ALL COMES TO AN END BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY I WOULD EXPECT
SOME SUNSHINE TO RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL IN THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR WHICH MEANS A STRONG SHALLOW INVERSION... SO
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD...EVEN WITH THE SUN COMING OUT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THE DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS AS
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HEADS FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THE
1000 TO 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE AMID THIS WAY. THE LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS BRINGS THE 900 TO 800 MB DEW POINTS
INTO THE LOWER 40S BY SATURDAY MORNING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO NEAR .7 INCHES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THAT WILL HELP THE CAUSE OF BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. ALL OF THIS TELLS ME WE WILL LIKELY SEE PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY MORNING (STARTING BEFORE SUNRISE) AND THAT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. SINCE THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO... LIKELY WE WILL SEE
A FEW HOURS OF MIXED FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. BY MID DAY
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA SO
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE WARM AIR
COMING IN OVER THE SNOW PACK I WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG TO (I DID NOT
YET PUT THIS IN OUR GRIDS THROUGH).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THEY ARE CURRENTLY...BUT STILL RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 40S AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL SEE QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SPREAD RAIN OVER THE CWA SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT.
TOTAL RAINFALL NEAR AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR FLOODING. IT/S ALSO GOING TO ADD WEIGHT TO ROOFS AS THE
SNOW PACK ABSORBS IT. TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT REMAIN IN THE 40S. AFTER THE LOW MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FLOW IN BEHIND IT. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY.

A VERY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY TUESDAY ENSURING A SUPPLY OF COLD AIR FLOWS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. H8 TEMPS BY 0Z TUESDAY ARE PROGD TO BE NEAR -10C AND FALL TO
AROUND -15C BY TUESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIDE VARIABILITY IS EXPECTED IN VSBY AS THE SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE IN AND OUT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING BUT GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LET UP AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BUT ONCE THE HIGH MOVES
TO THE EAST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN THE NEED FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WE ARE STILL MONITORING THE FLOOD THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND AS
AROUND A INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER OUR CURRENT SNOW
PACK. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NCRFC INDICATES NONE OF OUR
RIVERS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BUT WE MAY WELL HAVE SOME
MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING NONE THE LESS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 202021
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WITH
LOWS IN THE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CLOSER TO 20
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WILL FINALLY END THE
SNOW SHOWERS BY MID MORNING AND BRING SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND THAT WILL MEAN FREEZING RAIN CHANGING
TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING THEN LIGHT RAIN THE REST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT
RAIN TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH GUSTY WINDS. MONDAY THE COLD AIR
COMES BACK AND RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE IN PLACE
AGAIN THE COLD AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST
OF THANKSGIVING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE TWO BIG ISSUES FOR THIS FORECAST IS WHEN WILL THE SNOW SHOWERS
FINALLY END AND WILL WE HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN
SATURDAY MORNING?

A POWERFUL 160 TO 180 KNOT PACIFIC JET CORE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST COAST AS I WRITE THIS. THAT JET CORE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND IN TURN BOOTS THE DEEP UPPER LOW
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS
ALLOWS THE ASSOCIATED SYSTEM WITH THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET CORE TO
DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH COMES OUT OF THAT FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS WHAT CREATES THE WARM UP AND RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT ON FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
HAS BEEN EXCELLENT THE PAST FEW DAYS. SO THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION
WE WILL GET THE WARM AIR SURGE THIS WEEKEND...MELTING MOST OF THE
SNOW COVER.

THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR DOES NOT COME IN UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THE UPPER JET AXIS DOES NOT CROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
UNTIL MID MORNING FRIDAY. SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER AS WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DEPARTS...WINDS WILL TURN
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THAT WILL REORGANIZE THE SNOW SHOWERS TO
BE MORE MOSTLY NEAR US-131 ONCE THE SUN SETS. I COULD STILL SEE 3
TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FALL IN SOME AREAS FROM THESE SNOW BEFORE
THIS ALL COMES TO AN END BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY I WOULD EXPECT
SOME SUNSHINE TO RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL IN THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR WHICH MEANS A STRONG SHALLOW INVERSION... SO
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD...EVEN WITH THE SUN COMING OUT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THE DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS AS
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HEADS FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THE
1000 TO 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE AMID THIS WAY. THE LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS BRINGS THE 900 TO 800 MB DEW POINTS
INTO THE LOWER 40S BY SATURDAY MORNING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO NEAR .7 INCHES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THAT WILL HELP THE CAUSE OF BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. ALL OF THIS TELLS ME WE WILL LIKELY SEE PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY MORNING (STARTING BEFORE SUNRISE) AND THAT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. SINCE THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO... LIKELY WE WILL SEE
A FEW HOURS OF MIXED FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. BY MID DAY
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA SO
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE WARM AIR
COMING IN OVER THE SNOW PACK I WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG TO (I DID NOT
YET PUT THIS IN OUR GRIDS THROUGH).


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THEY ARE CURRENTLY...BUT STILL RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 40S AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL SEE QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SPREAD RAIN OVER THE CWA SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT.
TOTAL RAINFALL NEAR AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR FLOODING. IT/S ALSO GOING TO ADD WEIGHT TO ROOFS AS THE
SNOW PACK ABSORBS IT. TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT REMAIN IN THE 40S. AFTER THE LOW MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FLOW IN BEHIND IT. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY.

A VERY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY TUESDAY ENSURING A SUPPLY OF COLD AIR FLOWS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. H8 TEMPS BY 0Z TUESDAY ARE PROGD TO BE NEAR -10C AND FALL TO
AROUND -15C BY TUESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIDE VARIABILITY IS EXPECTED IN VSBY AS THE SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE IN AND OUT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING BUT GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LET UP AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BUT ONCE THE HIGH MOVES
TO THE EAST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN THE NEED FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WE ARE STILL MONITORING THE FLOOD THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND AS
AROUND A INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER OUR CURRENT SNOW
PACK. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NCRFC INDICATES NONE OF OUR
RIVERS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BUT WE MAY WELL HAVE SOME
MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING NONE THE LESS.


&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ058-
     059-066-067-073-074.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 202021
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WITH
LOWS IN THE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CLOSER TO 20
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WILL FINALLY END THE
SNOW SHOWERS BY MID MORNING AND BRING SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND THAT WILL MEAN FREEZING RAIN CHANGING
TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING THEN LIGHT RAIN THE REST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT
RAIN TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH GUSTY WINDS. MONDAY THE COLD AIR
COMES BACK AND RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE IN PLACE
AGAIN THE COLD AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST
OF THANKSGIVING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE TWO BIG ISSUES FOR THIS FORECAST IS WHEN WILL THE SNOW SHOWERS
FINALLY END AND WILL WE HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN
SATURDAY MORNING?

A POWERFUL 160 TO 180 KNOT PACIFIC JET CORE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST COAST AS I WRITE THIS. THAT JET CORE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND IN TURN BOOTS THE DEEP UPPER LOW
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS
ALLOWS THE ASSOCIATED SYSTEM WITH THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET CORE TO
DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH COMES OUT OF THAT FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS WHAT CREATES THE WARM UP AND RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT ON FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
HAS BEEN EXCELLENT THE PAST FEW DAYS. SO THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION
WE WILL GET THE WARM AIR SURGE THIS WEEKEND...MELTING MOST OF THE
SNOW COVER.

THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR DOES NOT COME IN UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THE UPPER JET AXIS DOES NOT CROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
UNTIL MID MORNING FRIDAY. SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER AS WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DEPARTS...WINDS WILL TURN
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THAT WILL REORGANIZE THE SNOW SHOWERS TO
BE MORE MOSTLY NEAR US-131 ONCE THE SUN SETS. I COULD STILL SEE 3
TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FALL IN SOME AREAS FROM THESE SNOW BEFORE
THIS ALL COMES TO AN END BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY I WOULD EXPECT
SOME SUNSHINE TO RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL IN THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR WHICH MEANS A STRONG SHALLOW INVERSION... SO
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD...EVEN WITH THE SUN COMING OUT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THE DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS AS
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HEADS FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THE
1000 TO 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE AMID THIS WAY. THE LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS BRINGS THE 900 TO 800 MB DEW POINTS
INTO THE LOWER 40S BY SATURDAY MORNING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO NEAR .7 INCHES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THAT WILL HELP THE CAUSE OF BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. ALL OF THIS TELLS ME WE WILL LIKELY SEE PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY MORNING (STARTING BEFORE SUNRISE) AND THAT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. SINCE THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO... LIKELY WE WILL SEE
A FEW HOURS OF MIXED FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. BY MID DAY
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA SO
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE WARM AIR
COMING IN OVER THE SNOW PACK I WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG TO (I DID NOT
YET PUT THIS IN OUR GRIDS THROUGH).


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THEY ARE CURRENTLY...BUT STILL RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 40S AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL SEE QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SPREAD RAIN OVER THE CWA SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT.
TOTAL RAINFALL NEAR AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR FLOODING. IT/S ALSO GOING TO ADD WEIGHT TO ROOFS AS THE
SNOW PACK ABSORBS IT. TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT REMAIN IN THE 40S. AFTER THE LOW MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FLOW IN BEHIND IT. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY.

A VERY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY TUESDAY ENSURING A SUPPLY OF COLD AIR FLOWS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. H8 TEMPS BY 0Z TUESDAY ARE PROGD TO BE NEAR -10C AND FALL TO
AROUND -15C BY TUESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIDE VARIABILITY IS EXPECTED IN VSBY AS THE SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE IN AND OUT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING BUT GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LET UP AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BUT ONCE THE HIGH MOVES
TO THE EAST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN THE NEED FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WE ARE STILL MONITORING THE FLOOD THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND AS
AROUND A INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER OUR CURRENT SNOW
PACK. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NCRFC INDICATES NONE OF OUR
RIVERS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BUT WE MAY WELL HAVE SOME
MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING NONE THE LESS.


&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ058-
     059-066-067-073-074.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 201739
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1239 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO A FEW FLURRIES FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES FINALLY UNDERGO A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

I PLAN NO CHANGES IN OUR HEADLINES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. I DID
INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS SINCE OUR 88D IS SHOWING 1 TO 2 INCH PER
HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE SNOW BAND THE EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MUSKEGON TO GRAND RAPIDS TO IONIA AT 11 AM. THAT BAND IS MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE POLAR JET AND IT DOES
NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE DAY TODAY. SO THE AREA FROM NEAR MUSKEGON
TO CENTRAL KENT COUNTY INTO IONIA COUNTIES COULD SEE 3 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL TODAY. THIS IS THE SAME SNOW BAND THAT HEADS EAST INTO
SHIWASSEE AND GENESSE COUNTY. HELPING THE CAUSE IS 35 KNOT WINDS
AT 850 MB FROM THE WEST WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THIS
EVENING.

TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA THE
LAKE CLOUD LEVEL WIND TURN MORE NORTHWEST AND THAT REFORMS THE
AXIS OF THE SNOW BAND TO MORE NORTH/SOUTH ALONG US-131. SNOWFALL
THEN SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY AS IT IS TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EASTWARD ALONG THE I-96
AND I-94 CORRIDORS AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FAVORS HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TODAY DUE TO BRISK 20-30KT LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH BETTER
BANDS NOW STREAMING ACROSS IONIA COUNTY AND EDGING INTO CLINTON.
WILL HAVE THIS NEW HEADLINE EXPIRING AT 7 PM THIS EVENING WHEN THE
WINDS RELAX. NO CHANGE TO THE EXISTING HEADLINE WHICH GOES THROUGH
7 AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WEST TO WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH H8 TEMPS STILL DOWN AROUND -16 TO
-18 C YIELDING HIGH DELTA T/S AND MODERATE TO HIGH LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY. THE BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE SNOW
SHOWERS INLAND.

HOWEVER THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND ARE
MAINLY JUST LIGHT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO LOWER SLOWLY FROM AROUND 7-8 KFT AGL TO ONLY AROUND
4-5 KFT AGL BY LATE THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2 AND
LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
WHERE SOME MODERATE 1000-850 MB CONVERGENCE LINGERS TODAY... TO ONLY
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES. THE
ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR OUR WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES LOOKS
GOOD AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO
TIERS OF COUNTIES WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WELL INLAND.

ANY LIGHT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EARLY FRIDAY WILL COME
TO AN END AS H8 TEMPS MODERATE CONSIDERABLY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAX TEMPS STILL ONLY REACHING
THE 20S.

A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (AFTER
MIDNIGHT) THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THIS IN A SW FLOW WAA REGIME AS WARMER AIR ALOFT OVERRUNS THE
COLDER AIR NEAR THE SFC. -FZRA ACCUMULATIONS OF FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE P-TYPE TRANSITIONS TO PLAIN
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMP PROFILES MODERATE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A WARM UP WITH RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A BRIEF THAW BEFORE
ANOTHER COOL DOWN WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TOP OF A SNOW PACK
CONTAINING UP TO AN INCH OF WATER EQUIVALENT AROUND GRR. SOME MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE BUT SINCE THE DEEPER SNOW PACK DOES NOT
COVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUSPECT THIS WILL NOT BE TOO BIG OF A DEAL AS
FAR AS THE MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CONCERNED.

THE UPCOMING ROLLER COASTER PATTERN IS COURTESY OF A DEEPENING SFC
LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN THE NEGATIVE
TILT SHORTWAVE AND SFC OCCLUSION LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE. SFC
DEW POINTS OF 45 TO 50 MOVING OVER THE SNOW COVER SHOULD LEAD TO
AREAS OF FOG SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE SFC LOW DEEPENS TO 975 MB AS IT TRACKS NORTH ACROSS ERN WI INTO
UPR MI LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING QUICKLY TO AROUND -12C. SEVERAL INCHES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIDE VARIABILITY IS EXPECTED IN VSBYS AS THE SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE IN AND OUT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING BUT GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. WNW WIND SPEEDS WILL RAMP BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE FORCE LATER TODAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER AND
PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. A STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING A MODERATING
TREND OF TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH RAIN. THE
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME RIVER LEVELS
TO RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ058-
     059-066-067-073-074.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 201739
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1239 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO A FEW FLURRIES FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES FINALLY UNDERGO A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

I PLAN NO CHANGES IN OUR HEADLINES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. I DID
INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS SINCE OUR 88D IS SHOWING 1 TO 2 INCH PER
HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE SNOW BAND THE EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MUSKEGON TO GRAND RAPIDS TO IONIA AT 11 AM. THAT BAND IS MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE POLAR JET AND IT DOES
NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE DAY TODAY. SO THE AREA FROM NEAR MUSKEGON
TO CENTRAL KENT COUNTY INTO IONIA COUNTIES COULD SEE 3 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL TODAY. THIS IS THE SAME SNOW BAND THAT HEADS EAST INTO
SHIWASSEE AND GENESSE COUNTY. HELPING THE CAUSE IS 35 KNOT WINDS
AT 850 MB FROM THE WEST WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THIS
EVENING.

TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA THE
LAKE CLOUD LEVEL WIND TURN MORE NORTHWEST AND THAT REFORMS THE
AXIS OF THE SNOW BAND TO MORE NORTH/SOUTH ALONG US-131. SNOWFALL
THEN SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY AS IT IS TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EASTWARD ALONG THE I-96
AND I-94 CORRIDORS AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FAVORS HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TODAY DUE TO BRISK 20-30KT LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH BETTER
BANDS NOW STREAMING ACROSS IONIA COUNTY AND EDGING INTO CLINTON.
WILL HAVE THIS NEW HEADLINE EXPIRING AT 7 PM THIS EVENING WHEN THE
WINDS RELAX. NO CHANGE TO THE EXISTING HEADLINE WHICH GOES THROUGH
7 AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WEST TO WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH H8 TEMPS STILL DOWN AROUND -16 TO
-18 C YIELDING HIGH DELTA T/S AND MODERATE TO HIGH LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY. THE BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE SNOW
SHOWERS INLAND.

HOWEVER THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND ARE
MAINLY JUST LIGHT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO LOWER SLOWLY FROM AROUND 7-8 KFT AGL TO ONLY AROUND
4-5 KFT AGL BY LATE THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2 AND
LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
WHERE SOME MODERATE 1000-850 MB CONVERGENCE LINGERS TODAY... TO ONLY
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES. THE
ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR OUR WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES LOOKS
GOOD AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO
TIERS OF COUNTIES WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WELL INLAND.

ANY LIGHT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EARLY FRIDAY WILL COME
TO AN END AS H8 TEMPS MODERATE CONSIDERABLY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAX TEMPS STILL ONLY REACHING
THE 20S.

A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (AFTER
MIDNIGHT) THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THIS IN A SW FLOW WAA REGIME AS WARMER AIR ALOFT OVERRUNS THE
COLDER AIR NEAR THE SFC. -FZRA ACCUMULATIONS OF FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE P-TYPE TRANSITIONS TO PLAIN
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMP PROFILES MODERATE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A WARM UP WITH RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A BRIEF THAW BEFORE
ANOTHER COOL DOWN WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TOP OF A SNOW PACK
CONTAINING UP TO AN INCH OF WATER EQUIVALENT AROUND GRR. SOME MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE BUT SINCE THE DEEPER SNOW PACK DOES NOT
COVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUSPECT THIS WILL NOT BE TOO BIG OF A DEAL AS
FAR AS THE MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CONCERNED.

THE UPCOMING ROLLER COASTER PATTERN IS COURTESY OF A DEEPENING SFC
LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN THE NEGATIVE
TILT SHORTWAVE AND SFC OCCLUSION LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE. SFC
DEW POINTS OF 45 TO 50 MOVING OVER THE SNOW COVER SHOULD LEAD TO
AREAS OF FOG SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE SFC LOW DEEPENS TO 975 MB AS IT TRACKS NORTH ACROSS ERN WI INTO
UPR MI LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING QUICKLY TO AROUND -12C. SEVERAL INCHES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIDE VARIABILITY IS EXPECTED IN VSBYS AS THE SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE IN AND OUT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING BUT GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. WNW WIND SPEEDS WILL RAMP BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE FORCE LATER TODAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER AND
PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. A STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING A MODERATING
TREND OF TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH RAIN. THE
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME RIVER LEVELS
TO RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ058-
     059-066-067-073-074.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 201610
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1110 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO A FEW FLURRIES FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES FINALLY UNDERGO A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

I PLAN NO CHANGES IN OUR HEADLINES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. I DID
INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS SINCE OUR 88D IS SHOWING 1 TO 2 INCH PER
HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE SNOW BAND THE EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MUSKEGON TO GRAND RAPIDS TO IONIA AT 11 AM. THAT BAND IS MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE POLAR JET AND IT DOES
NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE DAY TODAY. SO THE AREA FROM NEAR MUSKEGON
TO CENTRAL KENT COUNTY INTO IONIA COUNTIES COULD SEE 3 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL TODAY. THIS IS THE SAME SNOW BAND THAT HEADS EAST INTO
SHIWASSEE AND GENESSE COUNTY. HELPING THE CAUSE IS 35 KNOT WINDS
AT 850 MB FROM THE WEST WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THIS
EVENING.

TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA THE
LAKE CLOUD LEVEL WIND TURN MORE NORTHWEST AND THAT REFORMS THE
AXIS OF THE SNOW BAND TO MORE NORTH/SOUTH ALONG US-131. SNOWFALL
THEN SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY AS IT IS TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EASTWARD ALONG THE I-96
AND I-94 CORRIDORS AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FAVORS HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TODAY DUE TO BRISK 20-30KT LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH BETTER
BANDS NOW STREAMING ACROSS IONIA COUNTY AND EDGING INTO CLINTON.
WILL HAVE THIS NEW HEADLINE EXPIRING AT 7 PM THIS EVENING WHEN THE
WINDS RELAX. NO CHANGE TO THE EXISTING HEADLINE WHICH GOES THROUGH
7 AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WEST TO WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH H8 TEMPS STILL DOWN AROUND -16 TO
-18 C YIELDING HIGH DELTA T/S AND MODERATE TO HIGH LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY. THE BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE SNOW
SHOWERS INLAND.

HOWEVER THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND ARE
MAINLY JUST LIGHT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO LOWER SLOWLY FROM AROUND 7-8 KFT AGL TO ONLY AROUND
4-5 KFT AGL BY LATE THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2 AND
LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
WHERE SOME MODERATE 1000-850 MB CONVERGENCE LINGERS TODAY... TO ONLY
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES. THE
ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR OUR WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES LOOKS
GOOD AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO
TIERS OF COUNTIES WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WELL INLAND.

ANY LIGHT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EARLY FRIDAY WILL COME
TO AN END AS H8 TEMPS MODERATE CONSIDERABLY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAX TEMPS STILL ONLY REACHING
THE 20S.

A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (AFTER
MIDNIGHT) THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THIS IN A SW FLOW WAA REGIME AS WARMER AIR ALOFT OVERRUNS THE
COLDER AIR NEAR THE SFC. -FZRA ACCUMULATIONS OF FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE P-TYPE TRANSITIONS TO PLAIN
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMP PROFILES MODERATE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A WARM UP WITH RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A BRIEF THAW BEFORE
ANOTHER COOL DOWN WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TOP OF A SNOW PACK
CONTAINING UP TO AN INCH OF WATER EQUIVALENT AROUND GRR. SOME MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE BUT SINCE THE DEEPER SNOW PACK DOES NOT
COVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUSPECT THIS WILL NOT BE TOO BIG OF A DEAL AS
FAR AS THE MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CONCERNED.

THE UPCOMING ROLLER COASTER PATTERN IS COURTESY OF A DEEPENING SFC
LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN THE NEGATIVE
TILT SHORTWAVE AND SFC OCCLUSION LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE. SFC
DEW POINTS OF 45 TO 50 MOVING OVER THE SNOW COVER SHOULD LEAD TO
AREAS OF FOG SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE SFC LOW DEEPENS TO 975 MB AS IT TRACKS NORTH ACROSS ERN WI INTO
UPR MI LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING QUICKLY TO AROUND -12C. SEVERAL INCHES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FREQUENT IFR VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25
KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER
TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY... WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. WNW WIND SPEEDS WILL RAMP BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE FORCE LATER TODAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER AND
PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. A STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING A MODERATING
TREND OF TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH RAIN. THE
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME RIVER LEVELS
TO RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ058-
     059-066-067-073-074.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 201610
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1110 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO A FEW FLURRIES FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES FINALLY UNDERGO A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

I PLAN NO CHANGES IN OUR HEADLINES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. I DID
INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS SINCE OUR 88D IS SHOWING 1 TO 2 INCH PER
HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE SNOW BAND THE EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MUSKEGON TO GRAND RAPIDS TO IONIA AT 11 AM. THAT BAND IS MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE POLAR JET AND IT DOES
NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE DAY TODAY. SO THE AREA FROM NEAR MUSKEGON
TO CENTRAL KENT COUNTY INTO IONIA COUNTIES COULD SEE 3 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL TODAY. THIS IS THE SAME SNOW BAND THAT HEADS EAST INTO
SHIWASSEE AND GENESSE COUNTY. HELPING THE CAUSE IS 35 KNOT WINDS
AT 850 MB FROM THE WEST WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THIS
EVENING.

TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA THE
LAKE CLOUD LEVEL WIND TURN MORE NORTHWEST AND THAT REFORMS THE
AXIS OF THE SNOW BAND TO MORE NORTH/SOUTH ALONG US-131. SNOWFALL
THEN SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY AS IT IS TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EASTWARD ALONG THE I-96
AND I-94 CORRIDORS AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FAVORS HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TODAY DUE TO BRISK 20-30KT LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH BETTER
BANDS NOW STREAMING ACROSS IONIA COUNTY AND EDGING INTO CLINTON.
WILL HAVE THIS NEW HEADLINE EXPIRING AT 7 PM THIS EVENING WHEN THE
WINDS RELAX. NO CHANGE TO THE EXISTING HEADLINE WHICH GOES THROUGH
7 AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WEST TO WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH H8 TEMPS STILL DOWN AROUND -16 TO
-18 C YIELDING HIGH DELTA T/S AND MODERATE TO HIGH LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY. THE BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE SNOW
SHOWERS INLAND.

HOWEVER THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND ARE
MAINLY JUST LIGHT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO LOWER SLOWLY FROM AROUND 7-8 KFT AGL TO ONLY AROUND
4-5 KFT AGL BY LATE THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2 AND
LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
WHERE SOME MODERATE 1000-850 MB CONVERGENCE LINGERS TODAY... TO ONLY
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES. THE
ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR OUR WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES LOOKS
GOOD AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO
TIERS OF COUNTIES WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WELL INLAND.

ANY LIGHT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EARLY FRIDAY WILL COME
TO AN END AS H8 TEMPS MODERATE CONSIDERABLY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAX TEMPS STILL ONLY REACHING
THE 20S.

A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (AFTER
MIDNIGHT) THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THIS IN A SW FLOW WAA REGIME AS WARMER AIR ALOFT OVERRUNS THE
COLDER AIR NEAR THE SFC. -FZRA ACCUMULATIONS OF FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE P-TYPE TRANSITIONS TO PLAIN
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMP PROFILES MODERATE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A WARM UP WITH RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A BRIEF THAW BEFORE
ANOTHER COOL DOWN WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TOP OF A SNOW PACK
CONTAINING UP TO AN INCH OF WATER EQUIVALENT AROUND GRR. SOME MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE BUT SINCE THE DEEPER SNOW PACK DOES NOT
COVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUSPECT THIS WILL NOT BE TOO BIG OF A DEAL AS
FAR AS THE MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CONCERNED.

THE UPCOMING ROLLER COASTER PATTERN IS COURTESY OF A DEEPENING SFC
LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN THE NEGATIVE
TILT SHORTWAVE AND SFC OCCLUSION LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE. SFC
DEW POINTS OF 45 TO 50 MOVING OVER THE SNOW COVER SHOULD LEAD TO
AREAS OF FOG SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE SFC LOW DEEPENS TO 975 MB AS IT TRACKS NORTH ACROSS ERN WI INTO
UPR MI LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING QUICKLY TO AROUND -12C. SEVERAL INCHES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FREQUENT IFR VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25
KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER
TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY... WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. WNW WIND SPEEDS WILL RAMP BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE FORCE LATER TODAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER AND
PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. A STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING A MODERATING
TREND OF TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH RAIN. THE
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME RIVER LEVELS
TO RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ058-
     059-066-067-073-074.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 201230
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
730 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO A FEW FLURRIES FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES FINALLY UNDERGO A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EASTWARD ALONG THE I-96
AND I-94 CORRIDORS AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FAVORS HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TODAY DUE TO BRISK 20-30KT LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH BETTER
BANDS NOW STREAMING ACROSS IONIA COUNTY AND EDGING INTO CLINTON.
WILL HAVE THIS NEW HEADLINE EXPIRING AT 7 PM THIS EVENING WHEN THE
WINDS RELAX. NO CHANGE TO THE EXISTING HEADLINE WHICH GOES THROUGH
7 AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WEST TO WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH H8 TEMPS STILL DOWN AROUND -16 TO
-18 C YIELDING HIGH DELTA T/S AND MODERATE TO HIGH LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY. THE BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE SNOW
SHOWERS INLAND.

HOWEVER THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND ARE
MAINLY JUST LIGHT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO LOWER SLOWLY FROM AROUND 7-8 KFT AGL TO ONLY AROUND
4-5 KFT AGL BY LATE THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2 AND
LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
WHERE SOME MODERATE 1000-850 MB CONVERGENCE LINGERS TODAY... TO ONLY
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES. THE
ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR OUR WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES LOOKS
GOOD AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO
TIERS OF COUNTIES WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WELL INLAND.

ANY LIGHT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EARLY FRIDAY WILL COME
TO AN END AS H8 TEMPS MODERATE CONSIDERABLY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAX TEMPS STILL ONLY REACHING
THE 20S.

A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (AFTER
MIDNIGHT) THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THIS IN A SW FLOW WAA REGIME AS WARMER AIR ALOFT OVERRUNS THE
COLDER AIR NEAR THE SFC. -FZRA ACCUMULATIONS OF FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE P-TYPE TRANSITIONS TO PLAIN
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMP PROFILES MODERATE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A WARM UP WITH RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A BRIEF THAW BEFORE
ANOTHER COOL DOWN WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TOP OF A SNOW PACK
CONTAINING UP TO AN INCH OF WATER EQUIVALENT AROUND GRR. SOME MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE BUT SINCE THE DEEPER SNOW PACK DOES NOT
COVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUSPECT THIS WILL NOT BE TOO BIG OF A DEAL AS
FAR AS THE MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CONCERNED.

THE UPCOMING ROLLER COASTER PATTERN IS COURTESY OF A DEEPENING SFC
LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN THE NEGATIVE
TILT SHORTWAVE AND SFC OCCLUSION LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE. SFC
DEW POINTS OF 45 TO 50 MOVING OVER THE SNOW COVER SHOULD LEAD TO
AREAS OF FOG SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE SFC LOW DEEPENS TO 975 MB AS IT TRACKS NORTH ACROSS ERN WI INTO
UPR MI LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING QUICKLY TO AROUND -12C. SEVERAL INCHES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FREQUENT IFR VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25
KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER
TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY... WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. WNW WIND SPEEDS WILL RAMP BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE FORCE LATER TODAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER AND
PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. A STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING A MODERATING
TREND OF TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH RAIN. THE
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME RIVER LEVELS
TO RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ058-
     059-066-067-073-074.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 201230
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
730 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO A FEW FLURRIES FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES FINALLY UNDERGO A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EASTWARD ALONG THE I-96
AND I-94 CORRIDORS AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FAVORS HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TODAY DUE TO BRISK 20-30KT LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH BETTER
BANDS NOW STREAMING ACROSS IONIA COUNTY AND EDGING INTO CLINTON.
WILL HAVE THIS NEW HEADLINE EXPIRING AT 7 PM THIS EVENING WHEN THE
WINDS RELAX. NO CHANGE TO THE EXISTING HEADLINE WHICH GOES THROUGH
7 AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WEST TO WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH H8 TEMPS STILL DOWN AROUND -16 TO
-18 C YIELDING HIGH DELTA T/S AND MODERATE TO HIGH LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY. THE BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE SNOW
SHOWERS INLAND.

HOWEVER THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND ARE
MAINLY JUST LIGHT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO LOWER SLOWLY FROM AROUND 7-8 KFT AGL TO ONLY AROUND
4-5 KFT AGL BY LATE THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2 AND
LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
WHERE SOME MODERATE 1000-850 MB CONVERGENCE LINGERS TODAY... TO ONLY
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES. THE
ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR OUR WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES LOOKS
GOOD AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO
TIERS OF COUNTIES WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WELL INLAND.

ANY LIGHT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EARLY FRIDAY WILL COME
TO AN END AS H8 TEMPS MODERATE CONSIDERABLY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAX TEMPS STILL ONLY REACHING
THE 20S.

A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (AFTER
MIDNIGHT) THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THIS IN A SW FLOW WAA REGIME AS WARMER AIR ALOFT OVERRUNS THE
COLDER AIR NEAR THE SFC. -FZRA ACCUMULATIONS OF FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE P-TYPE TRANSITIONS TO PLAIN
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMP PROFILES MODERATE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A WARM UP WITH RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A BRIEF THAW BEFORE
ANOTHER COOL DOWN WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TOP OF A SNOW PACK
CONTAINING UP TO AN INCH OF WATER EQUIVALENT AROUND GRR. SOME MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE BUT SINCE THE DEEPER SNOW PACK DOES NOT
COVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUSPECT THIS WILL NOT BE TOO BIG OF A DEAL AS
FAR AS THE MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CONCERNED.

THE UPCOMING ROLLER COASTER PATTERN IS COURTESY OF A DEEPENING SFC
LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN THE NEGATIVE
TILT SHORTWAVE AND SFC OCCLUSION LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE. SFC
DEW POINTS OF 45 TO 50 MOVING OVER THE SNOW COVER SHOULD LEAD TO
AREAS OF FOG SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE SFC LOW DEEPENS TO 975 MB AS IT TRACKS NORTH ACROSS ERN WI INTO
UPR MI LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING QUICKLY TO AROUND -12C. SEVERAL INCHES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FREQUENT IFR VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25
KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER
TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY... WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. WNW WIND SPEEDS WILL RAMP BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE FORCE LATER TODAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER AND
PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. A STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING A MODERATING
TREND OF TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH RAIN. THE
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME RIVER LEVELS
TO RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ058-
     059-066-067-073-074.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 201143
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
643 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO A FEW FLURRIES FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES FINALLY UNDERGO A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WEST TO WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH H8 TEMPS STILL DOWN AROUND -16 TO
-18 C YIELDING HIGH DELTA T/S AND MODERATE TO HIGH LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY. THE BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE SNOW
SHOWERS INLAND.

HOWEVER THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND ARE
MAINLY JUST LIGHT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO LOWER SLOWLY FROM AROUND 7-8 KFT AGL TO ONLY AROUND
4-5 KFT AGL BY LATE THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2 AND
LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
WHERE SOME MODERATE 1000-850 MB CONVERGENCE LINGERS TODAY... TO ONLY
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES. THE
ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR OUR WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES LOOKS
GOOD AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO
TIERS OF COUNTIES WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WELL INLAND.

ANY LIGHT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EARLY FRIDAY WILL COME
TO AN END AS H8 TEMPS MODERATE CONSIDERABLY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAX TEMPS STILL ONLY REACHING
THE 20S.

A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (AFTER
MIDNIGHT) THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THIS IN A SW FLOW WAA REGIME AS WARMER AIR ALOFT OVERRUNS THE
COLDER AIR NEAR THE SFC. -FZRA ACCUMULATIONS OF FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE P-TYPE TRANSITIONS TO PLAIN
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMP PROFILES MODERATE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A WARM UP WITH RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A BRIEF THAW BEFORE
ANOTHER COOL DOWN WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TOP OF A SNOW PACK
CONTAINING UP TO AN INCH OF WATER EQUIVALENT AROUND GRR. SOME MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE BUT SINCE THE DEEPER SNOW PACK DOES NOT
COVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUSPECT THIS WILL NOT BE TOO BIG OF A DEAL AS
FAR AS THE MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CONCERNED.

THE UPCOMING ROLLER COASTER PATTERN IS COURTESY OF A DEEPENING SFC
LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN THE NEGATIVE
TILT SHORTWAVE AND SFC OCCLUSION LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE. SFC
DEW POINTS OF 45 TO 50 MOVING OVER THE SNOW COVER SHOULD LEAD TO
AREAS OF FOG SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE SFC LOW DEEPENS TO 975 MB AS IT TRACKS NORTH ACROSS ERN WI INTO
UPR MI LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING QUICKLY TO AROUND -12C. SEVERAL INCHES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FREQUENT IFR VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25
KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER
TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY... WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. WNW WIND SPEEDS WILL RAMP BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE FORCE LATER TODAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER AND
PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. A STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING A MODERATING
TREND OF TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH RAIN. THE
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME RIVER LEVELS
TO RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 201143
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
643 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO A FEW FLURRIES FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES FINALLY UNDERGO A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WEST TO WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH H8 TEMPS STILL DOWN AROUND -16 TO
-18 C YIELDING HIGH DELTA T/S AND MODERATE TO HIGH LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY. THE BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE SNOW
SHOWERS INLAND.

HOWEVER THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND ARE
MAINLY JUST LIGHT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO LOWER SLOWLY FROM AROUND 7-8 KFT AGL TO ONLY AROUND
4-5 KFT AGL BY LATE THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2 AND
LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
WHERE SOME MODERATE 1000-850 MB CONVERGENCE LINGERS TODAY... TO ONLY
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES. THE
ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR OUR WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES LOOKS
GOOD AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO
TIERS OF COUNTIES WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WELL INLAND.

ANY LIGHT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EARLY FRIDAY WILL COME
TO AN END AS H8 TEMPS MODERATE CONSIDERABLY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAX TEMPS STILL ONLY REACHING
THE 20S.

A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (AFTER
MIDNIGHT) THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THIS IN A SW FLOW WAA REGIME AS WARMER AIR ALOFT OVERRUNS THE
COLDER AIR NEAR THE SFC. -FZRA ACCUMULATIONS OF FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE P-TYPE TRANSITIONS TO PLAIN
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMP PROFILES MODERATE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A WARM UP WITH RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A BRIEF THAW BEFORE
ANOTHER COOL DOWN WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TOP OF A SNOW PACK
CONTAINING UP TO AN INCH OF WATER EQUIVALENT AROUND GRR. SOME MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE BUT SINCE THE DEEPER SNOW PACK DOES NOT
COVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUSPECT THIS WILL NOT BE TOO BIG OF A DEAL AS
FAR AS THE MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CONCERNED.

THE UPCOMING ROLLER COASTER PATTERN IS COURTESY OF A DEEPENING SFC
LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN THE NEGATIVE
TILT SHORTWAVE AND SFC OCCLUSION LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE. SFC
DEW POINTS OF 45 TO 50 MOVING OVER THE SNOW COVER SHOULD LEAD TO
AREAS OF FOG SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE SFC LOW DEEPENS TO 975 MB AS IT TRACKS NORTH ACROSS ERN WI INTO
UPR MI LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING QUICKLY TO AROUND -12C. SEVERAL INCHES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FREQUENT IFR VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25
KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER
TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY... WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. WNW WIND SPEEDS WILL RAMP BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE FORCE LATER TODAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER AND
PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. A STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING A MODERATING
TREND OF TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH RAIN. THE
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME RIVER LEVELS
TO RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 200808
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO A FEW FLURRIES FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES FINALLY UNDERGO A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

WEST TO WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH H8 TEMPS STILL DOWN AROUND -16 TO
-18 C YIELDING HIGH DELTA T/S AND MODERATE TO HIGH LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY. THE BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE SNOW
SHOWERS INLAND.

HOWEVER THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND ARE
MAINLY JUST LIGHT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO LOWER SLOWLY FROM AROUND 7-8 KFT AGL TO ONLY AROUND
4-5 KFT AGL BY LATE THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2 AND
LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
WHERE SOME MODERATE 1000-850 MB CONVERGENCE LINGERS TODAY... TO ONLY
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES. THE
ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR OUR WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES LOOKS
GOOD AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO
TIERS OF COUNTIES WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WELL INLAND.

ANY LIGHT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EARLY FRIDAY WILL COME
TO AN END AS H8 TEMPS MODERATE CONSIDERABLY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAX TEMPS STILL ONLY REACHING
THE 20S.

A CONSENSUS OF 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (AFTER
MIDNIGHT) THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THIS IN A SW FLOW WAA REGIME AS WARMER AIR ALOFT OVERRUNS THE
COLDER AIR NEAR THE SFC. -FZRA ACCUMULATIONS OF FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE P-TYPE TRANSITIONS TO PLAIN
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMP PROFILES MODERATE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A WARM UP WITH RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A BRIEF THAW BEFORE
ANOTHER COOL DOWN WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TOP OF A SNOW PACK
CONTAINING UP TO AN INCH OF WATER EQUIVALENT AROUND GRR. SOME MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE BUT SINCE THE DEEPER SNOW PACK DOES NOT
COVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUSPECT THIS WILL NOT BE TOO BIG OF A DEAL AS
FAR AS THE MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CONCERNED.

THE UPCOMING ROLLER COASTER PATTERN IS COURTESY OF A DEEPENING SFC
LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN THE NEGATIVE
TILT SHORTWAVE AND SFC OCCLUSION LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE. SFC
DEW POINTS OF 45 TO 50 MOVING OVER THE SNOW COVER SHOULD LEAD TO
AREAS OF FOG SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE SFC LOW DEEPENS TO 975 MB AS IT TRACKS NORTH ACROSS ERN WI INTO
UPR MI LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING QUICKLY TO AROUND -12C. SEVERAL INCHES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME
PATCHY IFR IN HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THESE WILL BE
FEWER THAN ON WEDNESDAY. WEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. WNW WIND SPEEDS WILL RAMP BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE FORCE LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER AND
PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. A STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING A MODERATING
TREND OF TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH RAIN. THE
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME RIVER LEVELS
TO RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MIZ037-038-043-044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>849.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH 7 AM
     FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS









000
FXUS63 KGRR 200502
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1202 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING OVER
MOST AREAS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AREA NORTH AND EAST OF LANSING
WILL SEE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20 THURSDAY.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING...THERE
MAY EVEN BE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL REMAIN
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR
TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN...THAT MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN
AS A MIXED RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

THE COLD AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURE RETURNING.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW DUE TO BRISK WEST WINDS.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR
TWO ARE EXPECTED... WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THAT RANGE
MAINLY NEAR TO WEST OF A LINE FROM KGRR TO KAZO. OUR ONGOING
ADVISORY HEADLINE LOOKS GOOD AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LITTLE QUESTION WE WILL SEE SNOW THIS EVENING. ONCE THE OCCLUDED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECT THE SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER MODE. THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. I CONTINUED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WE ISSUED AROUND NOON THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY
MORNING.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM FEATURES A STRONGLY DIGGING 95 KNOT 300 MB JET
CORE THAT STAYS SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. THAT WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN DEEP IN THE
COLD AIR AND WITH PREVAILING WEST WINDS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
ASSURED. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW STRONG LIFT IN THE DGZ
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING WILL INCREASE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 10000 FT
AGL. THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACTIVITY. I WOULD EXPECT 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL IN THE
AREA BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96 FROM THE LAKE SHORE TO ABOUT 30 MILES
EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 30 TO 35 KNOT
WINDS IN CLOUD LAYER WILL HELP BLOW THE SNOW BANDS WELL INLAND SO
EVEN LANSING AND JACKSON SHOULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW FROM THIS EVENT.

ONCE THE UPPER JET MOVES BACK NORTH OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD END AND WE MAY EVEN SEE A
LITTLE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND THAT
COULD SPELL SOME PROBLEMS TRAVEL WISE FOR A FEW HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT 12Z SATURDAY SHOW A PRONOUNCED WARMING AT H85 WITH
BELOW 0C TEMPS NEAR THE SFC. THIS IS A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLEET DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COLD
LAYER NEAR THE GROUND IS. BY 18Z TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING AND ALL PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN. SOME ROADS MAY BE SLIPPERY
THOUGH DURING THE MORNING.

THE WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND ALL OF THE PCPN WILL BE
RAIN. AN INCH OR BETTER IS POSSIBLE WHICH IN AND OF ITSELF COULD
CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS. WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ADD AN INCH OF RAIN AND ROOF
LOAD ISSUES MAY START TO CROP UP. ADDITIONALLY...THE RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN SOME SNOW-CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THUS MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE SUPPLY OF WARM AIR ACROSS
THE CWA. LOOK FOR RAIN FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE LOW
OCCLUDES AND COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SNOW BEGINS TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT COLD
AIR FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME
PATCHY IFR IN HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THESE WILL BE
FEWER THAN ON WEDNESDAY. WEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

I CONTINUED THE GALE WARING AS FORECAST UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY...
LIKELY WE WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THEN TILL 7 AM
FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

THE NCRFC ONCE AGAIN RAN THEIR RIVER MODELS FOR US TO SEE JUST HOW
MUCH OF AN IMPACT THE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND ON TOP OF
ALL THE SNOW WE NOW HAVE ON THE GROUND WILL HAVE ON AREA RIVERS.
IT WOULD SEEM WE WILL MOSTLY SEE RIVERS RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE
BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. ANOTHER ISSUE HERE MAY BE
ICE CLOGGED DRAINS AND WATER LOADING ON ROOFS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAURENS
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 200502
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1202 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING OVER
MOST AREAS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AREA NORTH AND EAST OF LANSING
WILL SEE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20 THURSDAY.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING...THERE
MAY EVEN BE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL REMAIN
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR
TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN...THAT MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN
AS A MIXED RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

THE COLD AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURE RETURNING.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW DUE TO BRISK WEST WINDS.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR
TWO ARE EXPECTED... WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THAT RANGE
MAINLY NEAR TO WEST OF A LINE FROM KGRR TO KAZO. OUR ONGOING
ADVISORY HEADLINE LOOKS GOOD AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LITTLE QUESTION WE WILL SEE SNOW THIS EVENING. ONCE THE OCCLUDED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECT THE SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER MODE. THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. I CONTINUED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WE ISSUED AROUND NOON THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY
MORNING.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM FEATURES A STRONGLY DIGGING 95 KNOT 300 MB JET
CORE THAT STAYS SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. THAT WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN DEEP IN THE
COLD AIR AND WITH PREVAILING WEST WINDS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
ASSURED. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW STRONG LIFT IN THE DGZ
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING WILL INCREASE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 10000 FT
AGL. THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACTIVITY. I WOULD EXPECT 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL IN THE
AREA BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96 FROM THE LAKE SHORE TO ABOUT 30 MILES
EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 30 TO 35 KNOT
WINDS IN CLOUD LAYER WILL HELP BLOW THE SNOW BANDS WELL INLAND SO
EVEN LANSING AND JACKSON SHOULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW FROM THIS EVENT.

ONCE THE UPPER JET MOVES BACK NORTH OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD END AND WE MAY EVEN SEE A
LITTLE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND THAT
COULD SPELL SOME PROBLEMS TRAVEL WISE FOR A FEW HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT 12Z SATURDAY SHOW A PRONOUNCED WARMING AT H85 WITH
BELOW 0C TEMPS NEAR THE SFC. THIS IS A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLEET DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COLD
LAYER NEAR THE GROUND IS. BY 18Z TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING AND ALL PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN. SOME ROADS MAY BE SLIPPERY
THOUGH DURING THE MORNING.

THE WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND ALL OF THE PCPN WILL BE
RAIN. AN INCH OR BETTER IS POSSIBLE WHICH IN AND OF ITSELF COULD
CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS. WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ADD AN INCH OF RAIN AND ROOF
LOAD ISSUES MAY START TO CROP UP. ADDITIONALLY...THE RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN SOME SNOW-CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THUS MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE SUPPLY OF WARM AIR ACROSS
THE CWA. LOOK FOR RAIN FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE LOW
OCCLUDES AND COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SNOW BEGINS TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT COLD
AIR FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME
PATCHY IFR IN HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THESE WILL BE
FEWER THAN ON WEDNESDAY. WEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

I CONTINUED THE GALE WARING AS FORECAST UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY...
LIKELY WE WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THEN TILL 7 AM
FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

THE NCRFC ONCE AGAIN RAN THEIR RIVER MODELS FOR US TO SEE JUST HOW
MUCH OF AN IMPACT THE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND ON TOP OF
ALL THE SNOW WE NOW HAVE ON THE GROUND WILL HAVE ON AREA RIVERS.
IT WOULD SEEM WE WILL MOSTLY SEE RIVERS RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE
BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. ANOTHER ISSUE HERE MAY BE
ICE CLOGGED DRAINS AND WATER LOADING ON ROOFS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAURENS
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 200247
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
947 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING OVER
MOST AREAS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AREA NORTH AND EAST OF LANSING
WILL SEE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20 THURSDAY.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING...THERE
MAY EVEN BE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL REMAIN
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR
TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN...THAT MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN
AS A MIXED RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

THE COLD AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURE RETURNING.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW DUE TO BRISK WEST WINDS.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR
TWO ARE EXPECTED... WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THAT RANGE
MAINLY NEAR TO WEST OF A LINE FROM KGRR TO KAZO. OUR ONGOING
ADVISORY HEADLINE LOOKS GOOD AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LITTLE QUESTION WE WILL SEE SNOW THIS EVENING. ONCE THE OCCLUDED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECT THE SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER MODE. THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. I CONTINUED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WE ISSUED AROUND NOON THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY
MORNING.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM FEATURES A STRONGLY DIGGING 95 KNOT 300 MB JET
CORE THAT STAYS SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. THAT WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN DEEP IN THE
COLD AIR AND WITH PREVAILING WEST WINDS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
ASSURED. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW STRONG LIFT IN THE DGZ
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING WILL INCREASE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 10000 FT
AGL. THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACTIVITY. I WOULD EXPECT 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL IN THE
AREA BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96 FROM THE LAKE SHORE TO ABOUT 30 MILES
EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 30 TO 35 KNOT
WINDS IN CLOUD LAYER WILL HELP BLOW THE SNOW BANDS WELL INLAND SO
EVEN LANSING AND JACKSON SHOULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW FROM THIS EVENT.

ONCE THE UPPER JET MOVES BACK NORTH OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD END AND WE MAY EVEN SEE A
LITTLE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND THAT
COULD SPELL SOME PROBLEMS TRAVEL WISE FOR A FEW HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT 12Z SATURDAY SHOW A PRONOUNCED WARMING AT H85 WITH
BELOW 0C TEMPS NEAR THE SFC. THIS IS A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLEET DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COLD
LAYER NEAR THE GROUND IS. BY 18Z TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING AND ALL PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN. SOME ROADS MAY BE SLIPPERY
THOUGH DURING THE MORNING.

THE WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND ALL OF THE PCPN WILL BE
RAIN. AN INCH OR BETTER IS POSSIBLE WHICH IN AND OF ITSELF COULD
CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS. WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ADD AN INCH OF RAIN AND ROOF
LOAD ISSUES MAY START TO CROP UP. ADDITIONALLY...THE RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN SOME SNOW-CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THUS MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE SUPPLY OF WARM AIR ACROSS
THE CWA. LOOK FOR RAIN FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE LOW
OCCLUDES AND COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SNOW BEGINS TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT COLD
AIR FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

IFR WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING FROM MKG TO GRR WITH PERIODS OF IFR
AT LAN AND FROM AZO TO JXN. WEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

I CONTINUED THE GALE WARING AS FORECAST UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY...
LIKELY WE WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THEN TILL 7 AM
FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

THE NCRFC ONCE AGAIN RAN THEIR RIVER MODELS FOR US TO SEE JUST HOW
MUCH OF AN IMPACT THE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND ON TOP OF
ALL THE SNOW WE NOW HAVE ON THE GROUND WILL HAVE ON AREA RIVERS.
IT WOULD SEEM WE WILL MOSTLY SEE RIVERS RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE
BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. ANOTHER ISSUE HERE MAY BE
ICE CLOGGED DRAINS AND WATER LOADING ON ROOFS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAURENS
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 200247
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
947 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING OVER
MOST AREAS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AREA NORTH AND EAST OF LANSING
WILL SEE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20 THURSDAY.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING...THERE
MAY EVEN BE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL REMAIN
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR
TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN...THAT MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN
AS A MIXED RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

THE COLD AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURE RETURNING.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW DUE TO BRISK WEST WINDS.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR
TWO ARE EXPECTED... WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THAT RANGE
MAINLY NEAR TO WEST OF A LINE FROM KGRR TO KAZO. OUR ONGOING
ADVISORY HEADLINE LOOKS GOOD AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LITTLE QUESTION WE WILL SEE SNOW THIS EVENING. ONCE THE OCCLUDED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECT THE SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER MODE. THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. I CONTINUED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WE ISSUED AROUND NOON THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY
MORNING.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM FEATURES A STRONGLY DIGGING 95 KNOT 300 MB JET
CORE THAT STAYS SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. THAT WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN DEEP IN THE
COLD AIR AND WITH PREVAILING WEST WINDS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
ASSURED. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW STRONG LIFT IN THE DGZ
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING WILL INCREASE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 10000 FT
AGL. THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACTIVITY. I WOULD EXPECT 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL IN THE
AREA BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96 FROM THE LAKE SHORE TO ABOUT 30 MILES
EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 30 TO 35 KNOT
WINDS IN CLOUD LAYER WILL HELP BLOW THE SNOW BANDS WELL INLAND SO
EVEN LANSING AND JACKSON SHOULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW FROM THIS EVENT.

ONCE THE UPPER JET MOVES BACK NORTH OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD END AND WE MAY EVEN SEE A
LITTLE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND THAT
COULD SPELL SOME PROBLEMS TRAVEL WISE FOR A FEW HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT 12Z SATURDAY SHOW A PRONOUNCED WARMING AT H85 WITH
BELOW 0C TEMPS NEAR THE SFC. THIS IS A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLEET DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COLD
LAYER NEAR THE GROUND IS. BY 18Z TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING AND ALL PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN. SOME ROADS MAY BE SLIPPERY
THOUGH DURING THE MORNING.

THE WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND ALL OF THE PCPN WILL BE
RAIN. AN INCH OR BETTER IS POSSIBLE WHICH IN AND OF ITSELF COULD
CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS. WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ADD AN INCH OF RAIN AND ROOF
LOAD ISSUES MAY START TO CROP UP. ADDITIONALLY...THE RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN SOME SNOW-CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THUS MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE SUPPLY OF WARM AIR ACROSS
THE CWA. LOOK FOR RAIN FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE LOW
OCCLUDES AND COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SNOW BEGINS TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT COLD
AIR FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

IFR WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING FROM MKG TO GRR WITH PERIODS OF IFR
AT LAN AND FROM AZO TO JXN. WEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

I CONTINUED THE GALE WARING AS FORECAST UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY...
LIKELY WE WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THEN TILL 7 AM
FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

THE NCRFC ONCE AGAIN RAN THEIR RIVER MODELS FOR US TO SEE JUST HOW
MUCH OF AN IMPACT THE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND ON TOP OF
ALL THE SNOW WE NOW HAVE ON THE GROUND WILL HAVE ON AREA RIVERS.
IT WOULD SEEM WE WILL MOSTLY SEE RIVERS RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE
BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. ANOTHER ISSUE HERE MAY BE
ICE CLOGGED DRAINS AND WATER LOADING ON ROOFS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAURENS
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 200247
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
947 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING OVER
MOST AREAS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AREA NORTH AND EAST OF LANSING
WILL SEE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20 THURSDAY.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING...THERE
MAY EVEN BE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL REMAIN
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR
TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN...THAT MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN
AS A MIXED RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

THE COLD AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURE RETURNING.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW DUE TO BRISK WEST WINDS.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR
TWO ARE EXPECTED... WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THAT RANGE
MAINLY NEAR TO WEST OF A LINE FROM KGRR TO KAZO. OUR ONGOING
ADVISORY HEADLINE LOOKS GOOD AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LITTLE QUESTION WE WILL SEE SNOW THIS EVENING. ONCE THE OCCLUDED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECT THE SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER MODE. THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. I CONTINUED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WE ISSUED AROUND NOON THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY
MORNING.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM FEATURES A STRONGLY DIGGING 95 KNOT 300 MB JET
CORE THAT STAYS SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. THAT WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN DEEP IN THE
COLD AIR AND WITH PREVAILING WEST WINDS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
ASSURED. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW STRONG LIFT IN THE DGZ
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING WILL INCREASE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 10000 FT
AGL. THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACTIVITY. I WOULD EXPECT 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL IN THE
AREA BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96 FROM THE LAKE SHORE TO ABOUT 30 MILES
EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 30 TO 35 KNOT
WINDS IN CLOUD LAYER WILL HELP BLOW THE SNOW BANDS WELL INLAND SO
EVEN LANSING AND JACKSON SHOULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW FROM THIS EVENT.

ONCE THE UPPER JET MOVES BACK NORTH OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD END AND WE MAY EVEN SEE A
LITTLE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND THAT
COULD SPELL SOME PROBLEMS TRAVEL WISE FOR A FEW HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT 12Z SATURDAY SHOW A PRONOUNCED WARMING AT H85 WITH
BELOW 0C TEMPS NEAR THE SFC. THIS IS A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLEET DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COLD
LAYER NEAR THE GROUND IS. BY 18Z TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING AND ALL PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN. SOME ROADS MAY BE SLIPPERY
THOUGH DURING THE MORNING.

THE WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND ALL OF THE PCPN WILL BE
RAIN. AN INCH OR BETTER IS POSSIBLE WHICH IN AND OF ITSELF COULD
CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS. WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ADD AN INCH OF RAIN AND ROOF
LOAD ISSUES MAY START TO CROP UP. ADDITIONALLY...THE RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN SOME SNOW-CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THUS MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE SUPPLY OF WARM AIR ACROSS
THE CWA. LOOK FOR RAIN FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE LOW
OCCLUDES AND COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SNOW BEGINS TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT COLD
AIR FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

IFR WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING FROM MKG TO GRR WITH PERIODS OF IFR
AT LAN AND FROM AZO TO JXN. WEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

I CONTINUED THE GALE WARING AS FORECAST UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY...
LIKELY WE WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THEN TILL 7 AM
FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

THE NCRFC ONCE AGAIN RAN THEIR RIVER MODELS FOR US TO SEE JUST HOW
MUCH OF AN IMPACT THE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND ON TOP OF
ALL THE SNOW WE NOW HAVE ON THE GROUND WILL HAVE ON AREA RIVERS.
IT WOULD SEEM WE WILL MOSTLY SEE RIVERS RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE
BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. ANOTHER ISSUE HERE MAY BE
ICE CLOGGED DRAINS AND WATER LOADING ON ROOFS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAURENS
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 200247
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
947 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING OVER
MOST AREAS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AREA NORTH AND EAST OF LANSING
WILL SEE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20 THURSDAY.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING...THERE
MAY EVEN BE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL REMAIN
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR
TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN...THAT MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN
AS A MIXED RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

THE COLD AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURE RETURNING.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW DUE TO BRISK WEST WINDS.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR
TWO ARE EXPECTED... WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THAT RANGE
MAINLY NEAR TO WEST OF A LINE FROM KGRR TO KAZO. OUR ONGOING
ADVISORY HEADLINE LOOKS GOOD AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LITTLE QUESTION WE WILL SEE SNOW THIS EVENING. ONCE THE OCCLUDED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECT THE SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER MODE. THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. I CONTINUED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WE ISSUED AROUND NOON THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY
MORNING.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM FEATURES A STRONGLY DIGGING 95 KNOT 300 MB JET
CORE THAT STAYS SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. THAT WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN DEEP IN THE
COLD AIR AND WITH PREVAILING WEST WINDS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
ASSURED. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW STRONG LIFT IN THE DGZ
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING WILL INCREASE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 10000 FT
AGL. THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACTIVITY. I WOULD EXPECT 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL IN THE
AREA BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96 FROM THE LAKE SHORE TO ABOUT 30 MILES
EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 30 TO 35 KNOT
WINDS IN CLOUD LAYER WILL HELP BLOW THE SNOW BANDS WELL INLAND SO
EVEN LANSING AND JACKSON SHOULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW FROM THIS EVENT.

ONCE THE UPPER JET MOVES BACK NORTH OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD END AND WE MAY EVEN SEE A
LITTLE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND THAT
COULD SPELL SOME PROBLEMS TRAVEL WISE FOR A FEW HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT 12Z SATURDAY SHOW A PRONOUNCED WARMING AT H85 WITH
BELOW 0C TEMPS NEAR THE SFC. THIS IS A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLEET DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COLD
LAYER NEAR THE GROUND IS. BY 18Z TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING AND ALL PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN. SOME ROADS MAY BE SLIPPERY
THOUGH DURING THE MORNING.

THE WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND ALL OF THE PCPN WILL BE
RAIN. AN INCH OR BETTER IS POSSIBLE WHICH IN AND OF ITSELF COULD
CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS. WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ADD AN INCH OF RAIN AND ROOF
LOAD ISSUES MAY START TO CROP UP. ADDITIONALLY...THE RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN SOME SNOW-CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THUS MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE SUPPLY OF WARM AIR ACROSS
THE CWA. LOOK FOR RAIN FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE LOW
OCCLUDES AND COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SNOW BEGINS TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT COLD
AIR FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

IFR WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING FROM MKG TO GRR WITH PERIODS OF IFR
AT LAN AND FROM AZO TO JXN. WEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

I CONTINUED THE GALE WARING AS FORECAST UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY...
LIKELY WE WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THEN TILL 7 AM
FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

THE NCRFC ONCE AGAIN RAN THEIR RIVER MODELS FOR US TO SEE JUST HOW
MUCH OF AN IMPACT THE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND ON TOP OF
ALL THE SNOW WE NOW HAVE ON THE GROUND WILL HAVE ON AREA RIVERS.
IT WOULD SEEM WE WILL MOSTLY SEE RIVERS RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE
BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. ANOTHER ISSUE HERE MAY BE
ICE CLOGGED DRAINS AND WATER LOADING ON ROOFS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAURENS
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 192348
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
648 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING OVER
MOST AREAS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AREA NORTH AND EAST OF LANSING
WILL SEE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20 THURSDAY.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING...THERE
MAY EVEN BE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL REMAIN
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR
TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN...THAT MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN
AS A MIXED RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

THE COLD AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURE RETURNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LITTLE QUESTION WE WILL SEE SNOW THIS EVENING. ONCE THE OCCLUDED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECT THE SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER MODE. THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. I CONTINUED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WE ISSUED AROUND NOON THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY
MORNING.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM FEATURES A STRONGLY DIGGING 95 KNOT 300 MB JET
CORE THAT STAYS SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. THAT WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN DEEP IN THE
COLD AIR AND WITH PREVAILING WEST WINDS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
ASSURED. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW STRONG LIFT IN THE DGZ
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING WILL INCREASE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 10000 FT
AGL. THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACTIVITY. I WOULD EXPECT 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL IN THE
AREA BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96 FROM THE LAKE SHORE TO ABOUT 30 MILES
EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 30 TO 35 KNOT
WINDS IN CLOUD LAYER WILL HELP BLOW THE SNOW BANDS WELL INLAND SO
EVEN LANSING AND JACKSON SHOULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW FROM THIS EVENT.

ONCE THE UPPER JET MOVES BACK NORTH OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD END AND WE MAY EVEN SEE A
LITTLE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND THAT
COULD SPELL SOME PROBLEMS TRAVEL WISE FOR A FEW HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT 12Z SATURDAY SHOW A PRONOUNCED WARMING AT H85 WITH
BELOW 0C TEMPS NEAR THE SFC. THIS IS A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLEET DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COLD
LAYER NEAR THE GROUND IS. BY 18Z TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING AND ALL PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN. SOME ROADS MAY BE SLIPPERY
THOUGH DURING THE MORNING.

THE WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND ALL OF THE PCPN WILL BE
RAIN. AN INCH OR BETTER IS POSSIBLE WHICH IN AND OF ITSELF COULD
CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS. WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ADD AN INCH OF RAIN AND ROOF
LOAD ISSUES MAY START TO CROP UP. ADDITIONALLY...THE RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN SOME SNOW-CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THUS MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE SUPPLY OF WARM AIR ACROSS
THE CWA. LOOK FOR RAIN FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE LOW
OCCLUDES AND COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SNOW BEGINS TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT COLD
AIR FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

IFR WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING FROM MKG TO GRR WITH PERIODS OF IFR
AT LAN AND FROM AZO TO JXN. WEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

I CONTINUED THE GALE WARING AS FORECAST UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY...
LIKELY WE WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THEN TILL 7 AM
FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

THE NCRFC ONCE AGAIN RAN THEIR RIVER MODELS FOR US TO SEE JUST HOW
MUCH OF AN IMPACT THE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND ON TOP OF
ALL THE SNOW WE NOW HAVE ON THE GROUND WILL HAVE ON AREA RIVERS.
IT WOULD SEEM WE WILL MOSTLY SEE RIVERS RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE
BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. ANOTHER ISSUE HERE MAY BE
ICE CLOGGED DRAINS AND WATER LOADING ON ROOFS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 192348
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
648 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING OVER
MOST AREAS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AREA NORTH AND EAST OF LANSING
WILL SEE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20 THURSDAY.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING...THERE
MAY EVEN BE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL REMAIN
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR
TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN...THAT MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN
AS A MIXED RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

THE COLD AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURE RETURNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LITTLE QUESTION WE WILL SEE SNOW THIS EVENING. ONCE THE OCCLUDED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECT THE SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER MODE. THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. I CONTINUED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WE ISSUED AROUND NOON THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY
MORNING.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM FEATURES A STRONGLY DIGGING 95 KNOT 300 MB JET
CORE THAT STAYS SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. THAT WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN DEEP IN THE
COLD AIR AND WITH PREVAILING WEST WINDS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
ASSURED. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW STRONG LIFT IN THE DGZ
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING WILL INCREASE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 10000 FT
AGL. THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACTIVITY. I WOULD EXPECT 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL IN THE
AREA BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96 FROM THE LAKE SHORE TO ABOUT 30 MILES
EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 30 TO 35 KNOT
WINDS IN CLOUD LAYER WILL HELP BLOW THE SNOW BANDS WELL INLAND SO
EVEN LANSING AND JACKSON SHOULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW FROM THIS EVENT.

ONCE THE UPPER JET MOVES BACK NORTH OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD END AND WE MAY EVEN SEE A
LITTLE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND THAT
COULD SPELL SOME PROBLEMS TRAVEL WISE FOR A FEW HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT 12Z SATURDAY SHOW A PRONOUNCED WARMING AT H85 WITH
BELOW 0C TEMPS NEAR THE SFC. THIS IS A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLEET DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COLD
LAYER NEAR THE GROUND IS. BY 18Z TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING AND ALL PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN. SOME ROADS MAY BE SLIPPERY
THOUGH DURING THE MORNING.

THE WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND ALL OF THE PCPN WILL BE
RAIN. AN INCH OR BETTER IS POSSIBLE WHICH IN AND OF ITSELF COULD
CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS. WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ADD AN INCH OF RAIN AND ROOF
LOAD ISSUES MAY START TO CROP UP. ADDITIONALLY...THE RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN SOME SNOW-CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THUS MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE SUPPLY OF WARM AIR ACROSS
THE CWA. LOOK FOR RAIN FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE LOW
OCCLUDES AND COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SNOW BEGINS TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT COLD
AIR FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

IFR WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING FROM MKG TO GRR WITH PERIODS OF IFR
AT LAN AND FROM AZO TO JXN. WEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

I CONTINUED THE GALE WARING AS FORECAST UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY...
LIKELY WE WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THEN TILL 7 AM
FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

THE NCRFC ONCE AGAIN RAN THEIR RIVER MODELS FOR US TO SEE JUST HOW
MUCH OF AN IMPACT THE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND ON TOP OF
ALL THE SNOW WE NOW HAVE ON THE GROUND WILL HAVE ON AREA RIVERS.
IT WOULD SEEM WE WILL MOSTLY SEE RIVERS RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE
BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. ANOTHER ISSUE HERE MAY BE
ICE CLOGGED DRAINS AND WATER LOADING ON ROOFS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 192028
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING OVER
MOST AREAS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AREA NORTH AND EAST OF LANSING
WILL SEE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20 THURSDAY.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING...THERE
MAY EVEN BE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL REMAIN
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR
TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN...THAT MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN
AS A MIXED RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

THE COLD AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURE RETURNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LITTLE QUESTION WE WILL SEE SNOW THIS EVENING. ONCE THE OCCLUDED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECT THE SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER MODE. THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. I CONTINUED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WE ISSUED AROUND NOON THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY
MORNING.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM FEATURES A STRONGLY DIGGING 95 KNOT 300 MB JET
CORE THAT STAYS SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. THAT WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN DEEP IN THE
COLD AIR AND WITH PREVAILING WEST WINDS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
ASSURED. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW STRONG LIFT IN THE DGZ
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING WILL INCREASE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 10000 FT
AGL. THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACTIVITY. I WOULD EXPECT 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL IN THE
AREA BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96 FROM THE LAKE SHORE TO ABOUT 30 MILES
EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 30 TO 35 KNOT
WINDS IN CLOUD LAYER WILL HELP BLOW THE SNOW BANDS WELL INLAND SO
EVEN LANSING AND JACKSON SHOULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW FROM THIS EVENT.

ONCE THE UPPER JET MOVES BACK NORTH OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD END AND WE MAY EVEN SEE A
LITTLE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.



.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND THAT
COULD SPELL SOME PROBLEMS TRAVEL WISE FOR A FEW HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT 12Z SATURDAY SHOW A PRONOUNCED WARMING AT H85 WITH
BELOW 0C TEMPS NEAR THE SFC. THIS IS A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLEET DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COLD
LAYER NEAR THE GROUND IS. BY 18Z TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING AND ALL PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN. SOME ROADS MAY BE SLIPPERY
THOUGH DURING THE MORNING.

THE WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND ALL OF THE PCPN WILL BE
RAIN. AN INCH OR BETTER IS POSSIBLE WHICH IN AND OF ITSELF COULD
CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS. WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ADD AN INCH OF RAIN AND ROOF
LOAD ISSUES MAY START TO CROP UP. ADDITIONALLY...THE RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN SOME SNOW-CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THUS MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE SUPPLY OF WARM AIR ACROSS
THE CWA. LOOK FOR RAIN FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE LOW
OCCLUDES AND COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SNOW BEGINS TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT COLD
AIR FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

ONE BATCH OF SNOW IS MOVING OUT AND MORE WILL DEVELOP AFTER A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WE/LL SEE VSBYS RISE AS LIGHT
SNOW TEMPORARILY DIMINISHES. HOWEVER MORE SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
PRIOR TO 00Z. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SWITCH FROM SOUTHERLY TO WSWLY AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

I CONTINUED THE GALE WARING AS FORECAST UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY...
LIKELY WE WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THEN TILL 7 AM
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

THE NCRFC ONCE AGAIN RAN THEIR RIVER MODELS FOR US TO SEE JUST HOW
MUCH OF AN IMPACT THE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND ON TOP OF
ALL THE SNOW WE NOW HAVE ON THE GROUND WILL HAVE ON AREA RIVERS.
IT WOULD SEEM WE WILL MOSTLY SEE RIVERS RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE
BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. ANOTHER ISSUE HERE MAY BE
ICE CLOGGED DRAINS AND WATER LOADING ON ROOFS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 192028
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING OVER
MOST AREAS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AREA NORTH AND EAST OF LANSING
WILL SEE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20 THURSDAY.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING...THERE
MAY EVEN BE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL REMAIN
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR
TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN...THAT MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN
AS A MIXED RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

THE COLD AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURE RETURNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LITTLE QUESTION WE WILL SEE SNOW THIS EVENING. ONCE THE OCCLUDED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECT THE SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER MODE. THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. I CONTINUED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WE ISSUED AROUND NOON THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY
MORNING.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM FEATURES A STRONGLY DIGGING 95 KNOT 300 MB JET
CORE THAT STAYS SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. THAT WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN DEEP IN THE
COLD AIR AND WITH PREVAILING WEST WINDS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
ASSURED. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW STRONG LIFT IN THE DGZ
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING WILL INCREASE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 10000 FT
AGL. THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACTIVITY. I WOULD EXPECT 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL IN THE
AREA BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96 FROM THE LAKE SHORE TO ABOUT 30 MILES
EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 30 TO 35 KNOT
WINDS IN CLOUD LAYER WILL HELP BLOW THE SNOW BANDS WELL INLAND SO
EVEN LANSING AND JACKSON SHOULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW FROM THIS EVENT.

ONCE THE UPPER JET MOVES BACK NORTH OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD END AND WE MAY EVEN SEE A
LITTLE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.



.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND THAT
COULD SPELL SOME PROBLEMS TRAVEL WISE FOR A FEW HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT 12Z SATURDAY SHOW A PRONOUNCED WARMING AT H85 WITH
BELOW 0C TEMPS NEAR THE SFC. THIS IS A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLEET DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COLD
LAYER NEAR THE GROUND IS. BY 18Z TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING AND ALL PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN. SOME ROADS MAY BE SLIPPERY
THOUGH DURING THE MORNING.

THE WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND ALL OF THE PCPN WILL BE
RAIN. AN INCH OR BETTER IS POSSIBLE WHICH IN AND OF ITSELF COULD
CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS. WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ADD AN INCH OF RAIN AND ROOF
LOAD ISSUES MAY START TO CROP UP. ADDITIONALLY...THE RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN SOME SNOW-CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THUS MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE SUPPLY OF WARM AIR ACROSS
THE CWA. LOOK FOR RAIN FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE LOW
OCCLUDES AND COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SNOW BEGINS TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT COLD
AIR FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

ONE BATCH OF SNOW IS MOVING OUT AND MORE WILL DEVELOP AFTER A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WE/LL SEE VSBYS RISE AS LIGHT
SNOW TEMPORARILY DIMINISHES. HOWEVER MORE SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
PRIOR TO 00Z. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SWITCH FROM SOUTHERLY TO WSWLY AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

I CONTINUED THE GALE WARING AS FORECAST UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY...
LIKELY WE WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THEN TILL 7 AM
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

THE NCRFC ONCE AGAIN RAN THEIR RIVER MODELS FOR US TO SEE JUST HOW
MUCH OF AN IMPACT THE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND ON TOP OF
ALL THE SNOW WE NOW HAVE ON THE GROUND WILL HAVE ON AREA RIVERS.
IT WOULD SEEM WE WILL MOSTLY SEE RIVERS RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE
BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. ANOTHER ISSUE HERE MAY BE
ICE CLOGGED DRAINS AND WATER LOADING ON ROOFS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 191744
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1244 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BRING MORE SNOW TODAY WITH MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO FOLLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
FINALLY MODERATE THIS WEEKEND. A POTENTIALLY VERY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

I AM GOING TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONE ROW OF
COUNTIES INLAND AND RUN IT THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY.

BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL INFORMATION AND CONSIDERING THE WEST
WINDS WITH STRONG INSTABILITY I BELIEVE THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM NEAR MUSKEGON TO GRAND
RAPIDS TO KALAMAZOO FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS A SHORTWAVE THAT COMES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING THAT WILL
INCREASE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 10000 FT... MORE THAN ENOUGH
FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH (BUFKIT MIXED LAYER) SO WE MAY HAVE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.
THE NAM SHOWS THETA E LAPSE RATES GOING SIGNIFICANTLY NEGATIVE
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT THURSDAY (EARLY FRIDAY MORNING)
TO US-131. ALL OF THIS SUGGEST TO ME WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN CWA.
HENCE THE INCREASED THREAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NEAR TO WEST OF
US-131 EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTH TO SW FLOW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
LATER THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVIER AT TIMES FROM NEAR
GRAND HAVEN AND KMKG NORTHWARD TO KLDM WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME WEST EAST ORIENTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS H8 TEMPS GRADUALLY FALL
BACK TO AROUND -15 TO -17 C BY 12Z THURSDAY.

HOWEVER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WILL NOT
BE NEARLY AS SIGNIFICANT AS COMPARED TO THE SNOWFALL MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY DUE LARGELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
LESS OMEGAS.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA TO AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES FROM NEAR
GRAND HAVEN AND KMKG NORTH TO LUDINGTON. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AND GIVEN THE NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT
BANDS.

IN TERMS OF HEADLINES... OUR EXISTING WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINE
FOR ALL OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKED
GOOD AND REMAINED UNCHANGED. MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL FOCUS ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF
OUR AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REST OF OUR
AREA TODAY WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

A LOT GOING ON IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A PATTERN
SHIFT TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A WARM UP TO THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WARMER AIR IS SURGING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THIS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE +8C ISOTHERM AT 850MB/S MAKES
IT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY WHICH IS IN STARK CONTRAST
TO THE -20C WE SAW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS PAST EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN AS THIS WARMER AIR SURGES IN IS MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE LOW LEVELS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE STUBBORN HANGING
ONTO THE COLD AIR WITH THE SNOW PACK...BUT THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION AND THEN A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN.

AT THIS POINT EXPECTING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SATURDAY MORNING A MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING A SOAKING RAIN IS
EXPECTED...ON TOP OF A SNOW PACK THAT HAS BUILT UP TO AROUND A FOOT
IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS OF KALAMAZOO...VAN BUREN...ALLEGAN...OTTAWA
AND KENT COUNTIES. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF
AN INCH IN BROAD...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWATS RISE TO AROUND AN INCH
WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOW PACK WATER EQUIVALENTS AS WELL AS
ZEROING IN ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE. SOME MINOR
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A TRANSITION BACK TO COLDER WEATHER SWEEPS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

ONE BATCH OF SNOW IS MOVING OUT AND MORE WILL DEVELOP AFTER A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WE/LL SEE VSBYS RISE AS LIGHT
SNOW TEMPORARILY DIMINISHES. HOWEVER MORE SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
PRIOR TO 00Z. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SWITCH FROM SOUTHERLY TO WSWLY AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SOUTH TO SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON TO GALE FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT RESULTING IN CONTINUED HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS THAT WILL BUILD
THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 TO 10 FEET AND TO 8 TO 12 FEET TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THEREFORE UPGRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR IN PLACE
AND ALL PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HYDRO ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A POTENTIALLY STRONG
SYSTEM THAT WOULD BRING RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH MELTING SNOW WILL POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO ISSUES BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 191744
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1244 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BRING MORE SNOW TODAY WITH MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO FOLLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
FINALLY MODERATE THIS WEEKEND. A POTENTIALLY VERY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

I AM GOING TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONE ROW OF
COUNTIES INLAND AND RUN IT THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY.

BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL INFORMATION AND CONSIDERING THE WEST
WINDS WITH STRONG INSTABILITY I BELIEVE THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM NEAR MUSKEGON TO GRAND
RAPIDS TO KALAMAZOO FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS A SHORTWAVE THAT COMES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING THAT WILL
INCREASE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 10000 FT... MORE THAN ENOUGH
FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH (BUFKIT MIXED LAYER) SO WE MAY HAVE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.
THE NAM SHOWS THETA E LAPSE RATES GOING SIGNIFICANTLY NEGATIVE
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT THURSDAY (EARLY FRIDAY MORNING)
TO US-131. ALL OF THIS SUGGEST TO ME WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN CWA.
HENCE THE INCREASED THREAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NEAR TO WEST OF
US-131 EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTH TO SW FLOW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
LATER THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVIER AT TIMES FROM NEAR
GRAND HAVEN AND KMKG NORTHWARD TO KLDM WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME WEST EAST ORIENTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS H8 TEMPS GRADUALLY FALL
BACK TO AROUND -15 TO -17 C BY 12Z THURSDAY.

HOWEVER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WILL NOT
BE NEARLY AS SIGNIFICANT AS COMPARED TO THE SNOWFALL MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY DUE LARGELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
LESS OMEGAS.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA TO AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES FROM NEAR
GRAND HAVEN AND KMKG NORTH TO LUDINGTON. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AND GIVEN THE NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT
BANDS.

IN TERMS OF HEADLINES... OUR EXISTING WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINE
FOR ALL OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKED
GOOD AND REMAINED UNCHANGED. MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL FOCUS ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF
OUR AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REST OF OUR
AREA TODAY WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

A LOT GOING ON IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A PATTERN
SHIFT TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A WARM UP TO THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WARMER AIR IS SURGING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THIS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE +8C ISOTHERM AT 850MB/S MAKES
IT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY WHICH IS IN STARK CONTRAST
TO THE -20C WE SAW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS PAST EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN AS THIS WARMER AIR SURGES IN IS MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE LOW LEVELS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE STUBBORN HANGING
ONTO THE COLD AIR WITH THE SNOW PACK...BUT THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION AND THEN A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN.

AT THIS POINT EXPECTING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SATURDAY MORNING A MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING A SOAKING RAIN IS
EXPECTED...ON TOP OF A SNOW PACK THAT HAS BUILT UP TO AROUND A FOOT
IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS OF KALAMAZOO...VAN BUREN...ALLEGAN...OTTAWA
AND KENT COUNTIES. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF
AN INCH IN BROAD...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWATS RISE TO AROUND AN INCH
WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOW PACK WATER EQUIVALENTS AS WELL AS
ZEROING IN ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE. SOME MINOR
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A TRANSITION BACK TO COLDER WEATHER SWEEPS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

ONE BATCH OF SNOW IS MOVING OUT AND MORE WILL DEVELOP AFTER A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WE/LL SEE VSBYS RISE AS LIGHT
SNOW TEMPORARILY DIMINISHES. HOWEVER MORE SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
PRIOR TO 00Z. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SWITCH FROM SOUTHERLY TO WSWLY AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SOUTH TO SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON TO GALE FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT RESULTING IN CONTINUED HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS THAT WILL BUILD
THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 TO 10 FEET AND TO 8 TO 12 FEET TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THEREFORE UPGRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR IN PLACE
AND ALL PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HYDRO ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A POTENTIALLY STRONG
SYSTEM THAT WOULD BRING RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH MELTING SNOW WILL POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO ISSUES BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 191654
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1154 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BRING MORE SNOW TODAY WITH MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO FOLLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
FINALLY MODERATE THIS WEEKEND. A POTENTIALLY VERY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

I AM GOING TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONE ROW OF
COUNTIES INLAND AND RUN IT THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY.

BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL INFORMATION AND CONSIDERING THE WEST
WINDS WITH STRONG INSTABILITY I BELIEVE THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM NEAR MUSKEGON TO GRAND
RAPIDS TO KALAMAZOO FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS A SHORTWAVE THAT COMES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING THAT WILL
INCREASE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 10000 FT... MORE THAN ENOUGH
FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH (BUFKIT MIXED LAYER) SO WE MAY HAVE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.
THE NAM SHOWS THETA E LAPSE RATES GOING SIGNIFICANTLY NEGATIVE
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT THURSDAY (EARLY FRIDAY MORNING)
TO US-131. ALL OF THIS SUGGEST TO ME WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN CWA.
HENCE THE INCREASED THREAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NEAR TO WEST OF
US-131 EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTH TO SW FLOW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
LATER THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVIER AT TIMES FROM NEAR
GRAND HAVEN AND KMKG NORTHWARD TO KLDM WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME WEST EAST ORIENTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS H8 TEMPS GRADUALLY FALL
BACK TO AROUND -15 TO -17 C BY 12Z THURSDAY.

HOWEVER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WILL NOT
BE NEARLY AS SIGNIFICANT AS COMPARED TO THE SNOWFALL MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY DUE LARGELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
LESS OMEGAS.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA TO AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES FROM NEAR
GRAND HAVEN AND KMKG NORTH TO LUDINGTON. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AND GIVEN THE NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT
BANDS.

IN TERMS OF HEADLINES... OUR EXISTING WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINE
FOR ALL OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKED
GOOD AND REMAINED UNCHANGED. MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL FOCUS ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF
OUR AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REST OF OUR
AREA TODAY WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

A LOT GOING ON IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A PATTERN
SHIFT TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A WARM UP TO THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WARMER AIR IS SURGING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THIS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE +8C ISOTHERM AT 850MB/S MAKES
IT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY WHICH IS IN STARK CONTRAST
TO THE -20C WE SAW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS PAST EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN AS THIS WARMER AIR SURGES IN IS MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE LOW LEVELS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE STUBBORN HANGING
ONTO THE COLD AIR WITH THE SNOW PACK...BUT THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION AND THEN A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN.

AT THIS POINT EXPECTING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SATURDAY MORNING A MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING A SOAKING RAIN IS
EXPECTED...ON TOP OF A SNOW PACK THAT HAS BUILT UP TO AROUND A FOOT
IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS OF KALAMAZOO...VAN BUREN...ALLEGAN...OTTAWA
AND KENT COUNTIES. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF
AN INCH IN BROAD...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWATS RISE TO AROUND AN INCH
WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOW PACK WATER EQUIVALENTS AS WELL AS
ZEROING IN ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE. SOME MINOR
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A TRANSITION BACK TO COLDER WEATHER SWEEPS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

A ROUND OF SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS GRADUALLY BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS BACK TO MANY LOCATIONS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY WILL
CONTINUE...AFFECTING ONLY KMKG (THROUGH 19Z) AS THE FLOW HAS GONE
SOUTHERLY. FROM MID AFTERNOON ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD HOWEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL REGENERATE AND WILL BE
DRIVEN INLAND THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING (OTHER THAN KMKG) WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TOWARDS MIDDAY. MVFR WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TOWARDS
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH VFR INLAND.

WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AT 15-30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN
20Z-22Z FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SOUTH TO SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON TO GALE FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT RESULTING IN CONTINUED HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS THAT WILL BUILD
THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 TO 10 FEET AND TO 8 TO 12 FEET TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THEREFORE UPGRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR IN PLACE
AND ALL PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HYDRO ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A POTENTIALLY STRONG
SYSTEM THAT WOULD BRING RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH MELTING SNOW WILL POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO ISSUES BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 191654
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1154 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BRING MORE SNOW TODAY WITH MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO FOLLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
FINALLY MODERATE THIS WEEKEND. A POTENTIALLY VERY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

I AM GOING TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONE ROW OF
COUNTIES INLAND AND RUN IT THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY.

BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL INFORMATION AND CONSIDERING THE WEST
WINDS WITH STRONG INSTABILITY I BELIEVE THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM NEAR MUSKEGON TO GRAND
RAPIDS TO KALAMAZOO FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS A SHORTWAVE THAT COMES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING THAT WILL
INCREASE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 10000 FT... MORE THAN ENOUGH
FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH (BUFKIT MIXED LAYER) SO WE MAY HAVE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.
THE NAM SHOWS THETA E LAPSE RATES GOING SIGNIFICANTLY NEGATIVE
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT THURSDAY (EARLY FRIDAY MORNING)
TO US-131. ALL OF THIS SUGGEST TO ME WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN CWA.
HENCE THE INCREASED THREAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NEAR TO WEST OF
US-131 EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTH TO SW FLOW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
LATER THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVIER AT TIMES FROM NEAR
GRAND HAVEN AND KMKG NORTHWARD TO KLDM WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME WEST EAST ORIENTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS H8 TEMPS GRADUALLY FALL
BACK TO AROUND -15 TO -17 C BY 12Z THURSDAY.

HOWEVER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WILL NOT
BE NEARLY AS SIGNIFICANT AS COMPARED TO THE SNOWFALL MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY DUE LARGELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
LESS OMEGAS.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA TO AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES FROM NEAR
GRAND HAVEN AND KMKG NORTH TO LUDINGTON. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AND GIVEN THE NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT
BANDS.

IN TERMS OF HEADLINES... OUR EXISTING WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINE
FOR ALL OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKED
GOOD AND REMAINED UNCHANGED. MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL FOCUS ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF
OUR AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REST OF OUR
AREA TODAY WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

A LOT GOING ON IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A PATTERN
SHIFT TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A WARM UP TO THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WARMER AIR IS SURGING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THIS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE +8C ISOTHERM AT 850MB/S MAKES
IT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY WHICH IS IN STARK CONTRAST
TO THE -20C WE SAW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS PAST EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN AS THIS WARMER AIR SURGES IN IS MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE LOW LEVELS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE STUBBORN HANGING
ONTO THE COLD AIR WITH THE SNOW PACK...BUT THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION AND THEN A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN.

AT THIS POINT EXPECTING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SATURDAY MORNING A MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING A SOAKING RAIN IS
EXPECTED...ON TOP OF A SNOW PACK THAT HAS BUILT UP TO AROUND A FOOT
IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS OF KALAMAZOO...VAN BUREN...ALLEGAN...OTTAWA
AND KENT COUNTIES. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF
AN INCH IN BROAD...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWATS RISE TO AROUND AN INCH
WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOW PACK WATER EQUIVALENTS AS WELL AS
ZEROING IN ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE. SOME MINOR
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A TRANSITION BACK TO COLDER WEATHER SWEEPS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

A ROUND OF SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS GRADUALLY BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS BACK TO MANY LOCATIONS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY WILL
CONTINUE...AFFECTING ONLY KMKG (THROUGH 19Z) AS THE FLOW HAS GONE
SOUTHERLY. FROM MID AFTERNOON ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD HOWEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL REGENERATE AND WILL BE
DRIVEN INLAND THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING (OTHER THAN KMKG) WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TOWARDS MIDDAY. MVFR WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TOWARDS
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH VFR INLAND.

WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AT 15-30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN
20Z-22Z FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SOUTH TO SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON TO GALE FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT RESULTING IN CONTINUED HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS THAT WILL BUILD
THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 TO 10 FEET AND TO 8 TO 12 FEET TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THEREFORE UPGRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR IN PLACE
AND ALL PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HYDRO ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A POTENTIALLY STRONG
SYSTEM THAT WOULD BRING RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH MELTING SNOW WILL POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO ISSUES BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 191200
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
700 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BRING MORE SNOW TODAY WITH MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO FOLLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
FINALLY MODERATE THIS WEEKEND. A POTENTIALLY VERY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NEAR TO WEST OF
US-131 EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTH TO SW FLOW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
LATER THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVIER AT TIMES FROM NEAR
GRAND HAVEN AND KMKG NORTHWARD TO KLDM WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME WEST EAST ORIENTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS H8 TEMPS GRADUALLY FALL
BACK TO AROUND -15 TO -17 C BY 12Z THURSDAY.

HOWEVER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WILL NOT
BE NEARLY AS SIGNIFICANT AS COMPARED TO THE SNOWFALL MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY DUE LARGELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
LESS OMEGAS.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA TO AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES FROM NEAR
GRAND HAVEN AND KMKG NORTH TO LUDINGTON. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AND GIVEN THE NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT
BANDS.

IN TERMS OF HEADLINES... OUR EXISTING WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINE
FOR ALL OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKED
GOOD AND REMAINED UNCHANGED. MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL FOCUS ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF
OUR AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REST OF OUR
AREA TODAY WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

A LOT GOING ON IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A PATTERN
SHIFT TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A WARM UP TO THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WARMER AIR IS SURGING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THIS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE +8C ISOTHERM AT 850MB/S MAKES
IT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY WHICH IS IN STARK CONTRAST
TO THE -20C WE SAW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS PAST EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN AS THIS WARMER AIR SURGES IN IS MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE LOW LEVELS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE STUBBORN HANGING
ONTO THE COLD AIR WITH THE SNOW PACK...BUT THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION AND THEN A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN.

AT THIS POINT EXPECTING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SATURDAY MORNING A MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING A SOAKING RAIN IS
EXPECTED...ON TOP OF A SNOW PACK THAT HAS BUILT UP TO AROUND A FOOT
IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS OF KALAMAZOO...VAN BUREN...ALLEGAN...OTTAWA
AND KENT COUNTIES. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF
AN INCH IN BROAD...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWATS RISE TO AROUND AN INCH
WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOW PACK WATER EQUIVALENTS AS WELL AS
ZEROING IN ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE. SOME MINOR
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A TRANSITION BACK TO COLDER WEATHER SWEEPS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

A ROUND OF SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS GRADUALLY BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS BACK TO MANY LOCATIONS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY WILL
CONTINUE...AFFECTING ONLY KMKG (THROUGH 19Z) AS THE FLOW HAS GONE
SOUTHERLY. FROM MID AFTERNOON ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD HOWEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL REGENERATE AND WILL BE
DRIVEN INLAND THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING (OTHER THAN KMKG) WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TOWARDS MIDDAY. MVFR WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TOWARDS
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH VFR INLAND.

WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AT 15-30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN
20Z-22Z FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SOUTH TO SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON TO GALE FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT RESULTING IN CONTINUED HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS THAT WILL BUILD
THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 TO 10 FEET AND TO 8 TO 12 FEET TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THEREFORE UPGRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR IN PLACE
AND ALL PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HYDRO ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A POTENTIALLY STRONG
SYSTEM THAT WOULD BRING RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH MELTING SNOW WILL POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO ISSUES BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 191200
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
700 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BRING MORE SNOW TODAY WITH MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO FOLLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
FINALLY MODERATE THIS WEEKEND. A POTENTIALLY VERY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NEAR TO WEST OF
US-131 EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTH TO SW FLOW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
LATER THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVIER AT TIMES FROM NEAR
GRAND HAVEN AND KMKG NORTHWARD TO KLDM WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME WEST EAST ORIENTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS H8 TEMPS GRADUALLY FALL
BACK TO AROUND -15 TO -17 C BY 12Z THURSDAY.

HOWEVER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WILL NOT
BE NEARLY AS SIGNIFICANT AS COMPARED TO THE SNOWFALL MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY DUE LARGELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
LESS OMEGAS.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA TO AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES FROM NEAR
GRAND HAVEN AND KMKG NORTH TO LUDINGTON. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AND GIVEN THE NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT
BANDS.

IN TERMS OF HEADLINES... OUR EXISTING WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINE
FOR ALL OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKED
GOOD AND REMAINED UNCHANGED. MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL FOCUS ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF
OUR AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REST OF OUR
AREA TODAY WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

A LOT GOING ON IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A PATTERN
SHIFT TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A WARM UP TO THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WARMER AIR IS SURGING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THIS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE +8C ISOTHERM AT 850MB/S MAKES
IT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY WHICH IS IN STARK CONTRAST
TO THE -20C WE SAW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS PAST EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN AS THIS WARMER AIR SURGES IN IS MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE LOW LEVELS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE STUBBORN HANGING
ONTO THE COLD AIR WITH THE SNOW PACK...BUT THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION AND THEN A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN.

AT THIS POINT EXPECTING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SATURDAY MORNING A MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING A SOAKING RAIN IS
EXPECTED...ON TOP OF A SNOW PACK THAT HAS BUILT UP TO AROUND A FOOT
IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS OF KALAMAZOO...VAN BUREN...ALLEGAN...OTTAWA
AND KENT COUNTIES. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF
AN INCH IN BROAD...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWATS RISE TO AROUND AN INCH
WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOW PACK WATER EQUIVALENTS AS WELL AS
ZEROING IN ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE. SOME MINOR
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A TRANSITION BACK TO COLDER WEATHER SWEEPS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

A ROUND OF SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS GRADUALLY BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS BACK TO MANY LOCATIONS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY WILL
CONTINUE...AFFECTING ONLY KMKG (THROUGH 19Z) AS THE FLOW HAS GONE
SOUTHERLY. FROM MID AFTERNOON ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD HOWEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL REGENERATE AND WILL BE
DRIVEN INLAND THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING (OTHER THAN KMKG) WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TOWARDS MIDDAY. MVFR WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TOWARDS
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH VFR INLAND.

WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AT 15-30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN
20Z-22Z FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SOUTH TO SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON TO GALE FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT RESULTING IN CONTINUED HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS THAT WILL BUILD
THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 TO 10 FEET AND TO 8 TO 12 FEET TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THEREFORE UPGRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR IN PLACE
AND ALL PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HYDRO ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A POTENTIALLY STRONG
SYSTEM THAT WOULD BRING RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH MELTING SNOW WILL POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO ISSUES BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS







000
FXUS63 KGRR 190830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BRING MORE SNOW TODAY WITH MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO FOLLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
FINALLY MODERATE THIS WEEKEND. A POTENTIALLY VERY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NEAR TO WEST OF
US-131 EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTH TO SW FLOW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
LATER THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVIER AT TIMES FROM NEAR
GRAND HAVEN AND KMKG NORTHWARD TO KLDM WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME WEST EAST ORIENTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS H8 TEMPS GRADUALLY FALL
BACK TO AROUND -15 TO -17 C BY 12Z THURSDAY.

HOWEVER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WILL NOT
BE NEARLY AS SIGNIFICANT AS COMPARED TO THE SNOWFALL MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY DUE LARGELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
LESS OMEGAS.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA TO AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES FROM NEAR
GRAND HAVEN AND KMKG NORTH TO LUDINGTON. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AND GIVEN THE NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT
BANDS.

IN TERMS OF HEADLINES... OUR EXISTING WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINE
FOR ALL OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKED
GOOD AND REMAINED UNCHANGED. MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL FOCUS ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF
OUR AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REST OF OUR
AREA TODAY WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

A LOT GOING ON IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A PATTERN
SHIFT TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A WARM UP TO THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WARMER AIR IS SURGING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THIS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE +8C ISOTHERM AT 850MB/S MAKES
IT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY WHICH IS IN STARK CONTRAST
TO THE -20C WE SAW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS PAST EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN AS THIS WARMER AIR SURGES IN IS MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE LOW LEVELS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE STUBBORN HANGING
ONTO THE COLD AIR WITH THE SNOW PACK...BUT THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION AND THEN A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN.

AT THIS POINT EXPECTING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SATURDAY MORNING A MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN MONDAY MORNING A SOAKING RAIN IS
EXPECTED...ON TOP OF A SNOW PACK THAT HAS BUILT UP TO AROUND A FOOT
IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS OF KALAMAZOO...VAN BUREN...ALLEGAN...OTTAWA
AND KENT COUNTIES. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF
AN INCH IN BROAD...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWATS RISE TO AROUND AN INCH
WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOW PACK WATER EQUIVALENTS AS WELL AS
ZEROING IN ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE. SOME MINOR
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A TRANSITION BACK TO COLDER WEATHER SWEEPS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BRING WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR EXCEPT AREAS
FROM MKG TO GRR WHERE IFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME FROM BTL TO JXN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SOUTH TO SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON TO GALE FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT RESULTING IN CONTINUED HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS THAT WILL BUILD
THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 TO 10 FEET AND TO 8 TO 12 FEET TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THEREFORE UPGRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR IN PLACE
AND ALL PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HYDRO ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A POTENTIALLY STRONG
SYSTEM THAT WOULD BRING RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH MELTING SNOW WILL POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO ISSUES BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.
     GALE WARNING 3 PM EST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 190830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BRING MORE SNOW TODAY WITH MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO FOLLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
FINALLY MODERATE THIS WEEKEND. A POTENTIALLY VERY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NEAR TO WEST OF
US-131 EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTH TO SW FLOW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
LATER THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVIER AT TIMES FROM NEAR
GRAND HAVEN AND KMKG NORTHWARD TO KLDM WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME WEST EAST ORIENTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS H8 TEMPS GRADUALLY FALL
BACK TO AROUND -15 TO -17 C BY 12Z THURSDAY.

HOWEVER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WILL NOT
BE NEARLY AS SIGNIFICANT AS COMPARED TO THE SNOWFALL MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY DUE LARGELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
LESS OMEGAS.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA TO AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES FROM NEAR
GRAND HAVEN AND KMKG NORTH TO LUDINGTON. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AND GIVEN THE NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT
BANDS.

IN TERMS OF HEADLINES... OUR EXISTING WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINE
FOR ALL OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKED
GOOD AND REMAINED UNCHANGED. MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL FOCUS ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF
OUR AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REST OF OUR
AREA TODAY WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

A LOT GOING ON IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A PATTERN
SHIFT TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A WARM UP TO THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WARMER AIR IS SURGING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THIS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE +8C ISOTHERM AT 850MB/S MAKES
IT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY WHICH IS IN STARK CONTRAST
TO THE -20C WE SAW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS PAST EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN AS THIS WARMER AIR SURGES IN IS MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE LOW LEVELS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE STUBBORN HANGING
ONTO THE COLD AIR WITH THE SNOW PACK...BUT THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION AND THEN A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN.

AT THIS POINT EXPECTING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SATURDAY MORNING A MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN MONDAY MORNING A SOAKING RAIN IS
EXPECTED...ON TOP OF A SNOW PACK THAT HAS BUILT UP TO AROUND A FOOT
IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS OF KALAMAZOO...VAN BUREN...ALLEGAN...OTTAWA
AND KENT COUNTIES. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF
AN INCH IN BROAD...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWATS RISE TO AROUND AN INCH
WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOW PACK WATER EQUIVALENTS AS WELL AS
ZEROING IN ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE. SOME MINOR
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A TRANSITION BACK TO COLDER WEATHER SWEEPS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BRING WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR EXCEPT AREAS
FROM MKG TO GRR WHERE IFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME FROM BTL TO JXN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SOUTH TO SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON TO GALE FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT RESULTING IN CONTINUED HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS THAT WILL BUILD
THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 TO 10 FEET AND TO 8 TO 12 FEET TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THEREFORE UPGRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR IN PLACE
AND ALL PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HYDRO ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A POTENTIALLY STRONG
SYSTEM THAT WOULD BRING RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH MELTING SNOW WILL POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO ISSUES BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.
     GALE WARNING 3 PM EST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS









000
FXUS63 KGRR 190507
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1207 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE CURRENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING ADDITIONAL ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT WILL TRANSITION
INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY...TAPERING TO FLURRIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER AIR WITH RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL LIKELY START AS
FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

THE COLD AIR RETURNS LATER MONDAY SO THE RAIN CHANGES BACK TO SNOW
SHOWERS. EXPECT COLDER WEATHER INTO THANKSGIVING WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THEY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AS DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND ALSO A GRADUALLY SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION
BACK TO THE SW THEN SSW TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS TO SHIFT IN ORIENTATION SUCH THAT THEY WILL
BE MOST FOCUSED AND PREVALENT ACROSS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WARNING HEADLINES WERE ALL ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 9
PM. THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OUR
LAKESHORE COUNTIES THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY. WE HAVE ALSO ISSUED A
WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINE THAT IS IN EFFECT FROM NOW THROUGH 3
AM WEDNESDAY FOR NEWAYGO... KENT... BARRY... KALAMAZOO AND
MONTCALM COUNTIES. THIS SINCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THOSE COUNTIES UNTIL THE WINDS FINALLY BACK MORE TO THE SSW DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AT WHICH POINT THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MAINLY WEST OF US-131 ACROSS OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 259 PM
EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE GREATEST IMPACT TO TRAVEL IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL LIKELY
BE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY FROM HOLLAND TOWARD LUDINGTON
WITH HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. WINDS PICK
UP LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT MORE WESTERLY...BRINGING STEADIER SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN INTO THE GRAND RAPIDS AREA AND LOCATIONS
NEAR/WEST OF US 131. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.

BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WAA WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP AS WINDS SHOULD
BECOME DUE SOUTH OR EVEN SSE FROM MUSKEGON NORTHWARD ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE SHORELINE AROUND 18Z
WEDNESDAY AND IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME THAT THINGS COULD GET
RATHER INTERESTING. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF ARW AND NAMDNG5
SUGGEST A DOMINANT BAND OR EVEN A MESOLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR
BIG AND LITTLE SABLE POINTS IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG SFC
CONVERGENCE AS WINDS GO WESTERLY OVER THE LAKE BUT STAY SSE OVER THE
LAKESHORE REGION. THAT BEING SAID...NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
BULLSEYE OF OMEGAS AT MKG AND LDM BELOW THE DGZ BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...THANKS TO WAA BUMPING UP THE DGZ A FEW THOUSAND FEET
HIGHER DURING THE DAY...SO THIS COULD MITIGATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS.

I WOULD ENVISION A DOMINANT LAKE BAND THAT MOVES PARTICULARLY INTO
MASON AND OCEANA COUNTIES BUT COULD EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH INTO
MUSKEGON AND OTTAWA COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT HEADS EAST. DURING THE 15Z TO 21Z TIME
FRAME...IT COULD GET RATHER DICEY ANYWHERE ALONG THE LAKESHORE BUT
PARTICULARLY FROM HOLLAND TO LUDINGTON AS THIS BAND MOVES ON SHORE.
BRIEFLY VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS...WITH
1"-2" PER HOUR POSSIBLE. DOMINANT BANDS AND MESOLOWS CAN PRODUCE
VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME...LEADING TO VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS. BUT SINCE THIS BAND
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME...THE LOWER RESIDENCE TIME MAY KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS IN CHECK.

AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ANY DOMINANT BAND WILL
COME TO AN END AS MULTI-BAND SNOW SHOWERS SET UP ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN. INLAND...WE ARE LOOKING AT GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
WHILE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE THOSE GUSTS COULD BE 30-35 MPH. THE
DGZ WILL BE FULLY SATURATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THOUGH LIFT WILL
BE WANING A BIT ON THURSDAY. THAT BEING SAID THE 1000MB-700MB LAPSE
RATES DO STEEPEN FROM 5-6C/KM ON WEDNESDAY TO 6-7C/KM ON THURSDAY.
0-2KM THETA E LAPSE RATES DO GO NEGATIVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS ADVERTISED WITH TOTALS BY THURSDAY EVENING AROUND
4"-7" OR A BIT HIGHER NEAR/WEST OF US 131.

AFTER A QUIETER FRIDAY...RAPID WAA ENSUES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THIS OCCURS. COULD BE SOME IMPACTS TO TRAVEL FOR
A BRIEF TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE
NOV 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL FEATURE A TEMPORARY PATTERN
SHIFT FOR THE AREA BRINGING WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO MON. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL THEN SETTLE BACK INTO A
COOLER PATTERN WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THEN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD ON TUE.

THE TRANSITION TO THE TEMPORARY WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN COULD BE A
BIT TRICKY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY
SAT. WE WILL SEE A STRONG SHORT WAVE COMING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST
COAST ON THU EVENTUALLY LIFT NE TOWARD SAT AS ANOTHER LONGER WAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND ABSORBS IT. THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE
PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT THE COLDER AIR AT THE SFC WILL
TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO BE USHERED OUT. THE WARMER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WIN OUT AS A DEEP SRLY FLOW MOVES IN.

THERE WILL THEN BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MON AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES AND ADVECTS WARM AND MOIST AIR
NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WILL HELP TO MELT A GOOD DEAL OF THE
RECENT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS ON THIS.

COLDER AIR WILL THEN MAKE A RETURN ON MON AND CONTINUE INTO
TUE...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE WEEKEND
WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BRING WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR EXCEPT AREAS
FROM MKG TO GRR WHERE IFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME FROM BTL TO JXN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

NONE OF OUR REPORTING STATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING GALES THIS
AFTERNOON SO I CANCELED THE GALE WARNING AND ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FROM NOW THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL HAVE A SHORT
WINDOW OF GALES WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT TO KEEP HEADLINES SIMPLE FOR
NOW WE WENT WITH THE DOMINATE WIND SPEED WHICH IS BELOW GALE
FORCE. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL UPGRADE TO GALES SO WHAT FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES TO THIS WITH LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

I AM RATHER CONCERNED ABOUT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND AS
STRONG STORM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE CURRENT SNOW PACK WITH FROZEN GROUND. AFTER COORDINATION
WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER... WE DECIDED THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING IS THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT IT
IS MINOR BUT WE WILL HAVE TO STAY ON TOP OF THIS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ044-051-057-065-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAURENS
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 190507
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1207 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE CURRENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING ADDITIONAL ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT WILL TRANSITION
INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY...TAPERING TO FLURRIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER AIR WITH RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL LIKELY START AS
FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

THE COLD AIR RETURNS LATER MONDAY SO THE RAIN CHANGES BACK TO SNOW
SHOWERS. EXPECT COLDER WEATHER INTO THANKSGIVING WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THEY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AS DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND ALSO A GRADUALLY SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION
BACK TO THE SW THEN SSW TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS TO SHIFT IN ORIENTATION SUCH THAT THEY WILL
BE MOST FOCUSED AND PREVALENT ACROSS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WARNING HEADLINES WERE ALL ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 9
PM. THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OUR
LAKESHORE COUNTIES THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY. WE HAVE ALSO ISSUED A
WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINE THAT IS IN EFFECT FROM NOW THROUGH 3
AM WEDNESDAY FOR NEWAYGO... KENT... BARRY... KALAMAZOO AND
MONTCALM COUNTIES. THIS SINCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THOSE COUNTIES UNTIL THE WINDS FINALLY BACK MORE TO THE SSW DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AT WHICH POINT THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MAINLY WEST OF US-131 ACROSS OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 259 PM
EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE GREATEST IMPACT TO TRAVEL IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL LIKELY
BE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY FROM HOLLAND TOWARD LUDINGTON
WITH HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. WINDS PICK
UP LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT MORE WESTERLY...BRINGING STEADIER SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN INTO THE GRAND RAPIDS AREA AND LOCATIONS
NEAR/WEST OF US 131. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.

BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WAA WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP AS WINDS SHOULD
BECOME DUE SOUTH OR EVEN SSE FROM MUSKEGON NORTHWARD ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE SHORELINE AROUND 18Z
WEDNESDAY AND IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME THAT THINGS COULD GET
RATHER INTERESTING. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF ARW AND NAMDNG5
SUGGEST A DOMINANT BAND OR EVEN A MESOLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR
BIG AND LITTLE SABLE POINTS IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG SFC
CONVERGENCE AS WINDS GO WESTERLY OVER THE LAKE BUT STAY SSE OVER THE
LAKESHORE REGION. THAT BEING SAID...NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
BULLSEYE OF OMEGAS AT MKG AND LDM BELOW THE DGZ BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...THANKS TO WAA BUMPING UP THE DGZ A FEW THOUSAND FEET
HIGHER DURING THE DAY...SO THIS COULD MITIGATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS.

I WOULD ENVISION A DOMINANT LAKE BAND THAT MOVES PARTICULARLY INTO
MASON AND OCEANA COUNTIES BUT COULD EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH INTO
MUSKEGON AND OTTAWA COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT HEADS EAST. DURING THE 15Z TO 21Z TIME
FRAME...IT COULD GET RATHER DICEY ANYWHERE ALONG THE LAKESHORE BUT
PARTICULARLY FROM HOLLAND TO LUDINGTON AS THIS BAND MOVES ON SHORE.
BRIEFLY VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS...WITH
1"-2" PER HOUR POSSIBLE. DOMINANT BANDS AND MESOLOWS CAN PRODUCE
VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME...LEADING TO VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS. BUT SINCE THIS BAND
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME...THE LOWER RESIDENCE TIME MAY KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS IN CHECK.

AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ANY DOMINANT BAND WILL
COME TO AN END AS MULTI-BAND SNOW SHOWERS SET UP ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN. INLAND...WE ARE LOOKING AT GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
WHILE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE THOSE GUSTS COULD BE 30-35 MPH. THE
DGZ WILL BE FULLY SATURATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THOUGH LIFT WILL
BE WANING A BIT ON THURSDAY. THAT BEING SAID THE 1000MB-700MB LAPSE
RATES DO STEEPEN FROM 5-6C/KM ON WEDNESDAY TO 6-7C/KM ON THURSDAY.
0-2KM THETA E LAPSE RATES DO GO NEGATIVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS ADVERTISED WITH TOTALS BY THURSDAY EVENING AROUND
4"-7" OR A BIT HIGHER NEAR/WEST OF US 131.

AFTER A QUIETER FRIDAY...RAPID WAA ENSUES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THIS OCCURS. COULD BE SOME IMPACTS TO TRAVEL FOR
A BRIEF TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE
NOV 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL FEATURE A TEMPORARY PATTERN
SHIFT FOR THE AREA BRINGING WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO MON. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL THEN SETTLE BACK INTO A
COOLER PATTERN WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THEN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD ON TUE.

THE TRANSITION TO THE TEMPORARY WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN COULD BE A
BIT TRICKY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY
SAT. WE WILL SEE A STRONG SHORT WAVE COMING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST
COAST ON THU EVENTUALLY LIFT NE TOWARD SAT AS ANOTHER LONGER WAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND ABSORBS IT. THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE
PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT THE COLDER AIR AT THE SFC WILL
TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO BE USHERED OUT. THE WARMER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WIN OUT AS A DEEP SRLY FLOW MOVES IN.

THERE WILL THEN BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MON AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES AND ADVECTS WARM AND MOIST AIR
NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WILL HELP TO MELT A GOOD DEAL OF THE
RECENT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS ON THIS.

COLDER AIR WILL THEN MAKE A RETURN ON MON AND CONTINUE INTO
TUE...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE WEEKEND
WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BRING WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR EXCEPT AREAS
FROM MKG TO GRR WHERE IFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME FROM BTL TO JXN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

NONE OF OUR REPORTING STATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING GALES THIS
AFTERNOON SO I CANCELED THE GALE WARNING AND ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FROM NOW THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL HAVE A SHORT
WINDOW OF GALES WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT TO KEEP HEADLINES SIMPLE FOR
NOW WE WENT WITH THE DOMINATE WIND SPEED WHICH IS BELOW GALE
FORCE. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL UPGRADE TO GALES SO WHAT FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES TO THIS WITH LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

I AM RATHER CONCERNED ABOUT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND AS
STRONG STORM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE CURRENT SNOW PACK WITH FROZEN GROUND. AFTER COORDINATION
WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER... WE DECIDED THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING IS THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT IT
IS MINOR BUT WE WILL HAVE TO STAY ON TOP OF THIS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ044-051-057-065-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAURENS
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 190213
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
913 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE CURRENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING ADDITIONAL ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT WILL TRANSITION
INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY...TAPERING TO FLURRIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER AIR WITH RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL LIKELY START AS
FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

THE COLD AIR RETURNS LATER MONDAY SO THE RAIN CHANGES BACK TO SNOW
SHOWERS. EXPECT COLDER WEATHER INTO THANKSGIVING WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THEY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AS DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND ALSO A GRADUALLY SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION
BACK TO THE SW THEN SSW TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS TO SHIFT IN ORIENTATION SUCH THAT THEY WILL
BE MOST FOCUSED AND PREVALENT ACROSS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WARNING HEADLINES WERE ALL ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 9
PM. THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OUR
LAKESHORE COUNTIES THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY. WE HAVE ALSO ISSUED A
WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINE THAT IS IN EFFECT FROM NOW THROUGH 3
AM WEDNESDAY FOR NEWAYGO... KENT... BARRY... KALAMAZOO AND
MONTCALM COUNTIES. THIS SINCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THOSE COUNTIES UNTIL THE WINDS FINALLY BACK MORE TO THE SSW DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AT WHICH POINT THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MAINLY WEST OF US-131 ACROSS OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 259 PM
EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE GREATEST IMPACT TO TRAVEL IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL LIKELY
BE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY FROM HOLLAND TOWARD LUDINGTON
WITH HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. WINDS PICK
UP LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT MORE WESTERLY...BRINGING STEADIER SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN INTO THE GRAND RAPIDS AREA AND LOCATIONS
NEAR/WEST OF US 131. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.

BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WAA WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP AS WINDS SHOULD
BECOME DUE SOUTH OR EVEN SSE FROM MUSKEGON NORTHWARD ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE SHORELINE AROUND 18Z
WEDNESDAY AND IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME THAT THINGS COULD GET
RATHER INTERESTING. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF ARW AND NAMDNG5
SUGGEST A DOMINANT BAND OR EVEN A MESOLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR
BIG AND LITTLE SABLE POINTS IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG SFC
CONVERGENCE AS WINDS GO WESTERLY OVER THE LAKE BUT STAY SSE OVER THE
LAKESHORE REGION. THAT BEING SAID...NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
BULLSEYE OF OMEGAS AT MKG AND LDM BELOW THE DGZ BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...THANKS TO WAA BUMPING UP THE DGZ A FEW THOUSAND FEET
HIGHER DURING THE DAY...SO THIS COULD MITIGATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS.

I WOULD ENVISION A DOMINANT LAKE BAND THAT MOVES PARTICULARLY INTO
MASON AND OCEANA COUNTIES BUT COULD EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH INTO
MUSKEGON AND OTTAWA COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT HEADS EAST. DURING THE 15Z TO 21Z TIME
FRAME...IT COULD GET RATHER DICEY ANYWHERE ALONG THE LAKESHORE BUT
PARTICULARLY FROM HOLLAND TO LUDINGTON AS THIS BAND MOVES ON SHORE.
BRIEFLY VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS...WITH
1"-2" PER HOUR POSSIBLE. DOMINANT BANDS AND MESOLOWS CAN PRODUCE
VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME...LEADING TO VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS. BUT SINCE THIS BAND
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME...THE LOWER RESIDENCE TIME MAY KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS IN CHECK.

AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ANY DOMINANT BAND WILL
COME TO AN END AS MULTI-BAND SNOW SHOWERS SET UP ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN. INLAND...WE ARE LOOKING AT GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
WHILE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE THOSE GUSTS COULD BE 30-35 MPH. THE
DGZ WILL BE FULLY SATURATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THOUGH LIFT WILL
BE WANING A BIT ON THURSDAY. THAT BEING SAID THE 1000MB-700MB LAPSE
RATES DO STEEPEN FROM 5-6C/KM ON WEDNESDAY TO 6-7C/KM ON THURSDAY.
0-2KM THETA E LAPSE RATES DO GO NEGATIVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS ADVERTISED WITH TOTALS BY THURSDAY EVENING AROUND
4"-7" OR A BIT HIGHER NEAR/WEST OF US 131.

AFTER A QUIETER FRIDAY...RAPID WAA ENSUES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THIS OCCURS. COULD BE SOME IMPACTS TO TRAVEL FOR
A BRIEF TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE
NOV 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL FEATURE A TEMPORARY PATTERN
SHIFT FOR THE AREA BRINGING WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO MON. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL THEN SETTLE BACK INTO A
COOLER PATTERN WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THEN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD ON TUE.

THE TRANSITION TO THE TEMPORARY WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN COULD BE A
BIT TRICKY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY
SAT. WE WILL SEE A STRONG SHORT WAVE COMING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST
COAST ON THU EVENTUALLY LIFT NE TOWARD SAT AS ANOTHER LONGER WAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND ABSORBS IT. THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE
PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT THE COLDER AIR AT THE SFC WILL
TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO BE USHERED OUT. THE WARMER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WIN OUT AS A DEEP SRLY FLOW MOVES IN.

THERE WILL THEN BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MON AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES AND ADVECTS WARM AND MOIST AIR
NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WILL HELP TO MELT A GOOD DEAL OF THE
RECENT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS ON THIS.

COLDER AIR WILL THEN MAKE A RETURN ON MON AND CONTINUE INTO
TUE...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE WEEKEND
WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR...WITH SOME IFR FROM MKG TO GRR.
EXPECT VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM BTL TO JXN AND NORTH
TO LAN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

NONE OF OUR REPORTING STATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING GALES THIS
AFTERNOON SO I CANCELED THE GALE WARNING AND ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FROM NOW THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL HAVE A SHORT
WINDOW OF GALES WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT TO KEEP HEADLINES SIMPLE FOR
NOW WE WENT WITH THE DOMINATE WIND SPEED WHICH IS BELOW GALE
FORCE. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL UPGRADE TO GALES SO WHAT FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES TO THIS WITH LATER FORECASTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

I AM RATHER CONCERNED ABOUT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND AS
STRONG STORM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE CURRENT SNOW PACK WITH FROZEN GROUND. AFTER COORDINATION
WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER... WE DECIDED THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING IS THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT IT
IS MINOR BUT WE WILL HAVE TO STAY ON TOP OF THIS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ044-051-
     057-065-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAURENS
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 190213
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
913 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE CURRENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING ADDITIONAL ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT WILL TRANSITION
INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY...TAPERING TO FLURRIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER AIR WITH RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL LIKELY START AS
FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

THE COLD AIR RETURNS LATER MONDAY SO THE RAIN CHANGES BACK TO SNOW
SHOWERS. EXPECT COLDER WEATHER INTO THANKSGIVING WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THEY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AS DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND ALSO A GRADUALLY SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION
BACK TO THE SW THEN SSW TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS TO SHIFT IN ORIENTATION SUCH THAT THEY WILL
BE MOST FOCUSED AND PREVALENT ACROSS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WARNING HEADLINES WERE ALL ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 9
PM. THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OUR
LAKESHORE COUNTIES THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY. WE HAVE ALSO ISSUED A
WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINE THAT IS IN EFFECT FROM NOW THROUGH 3
AM WEDNESDAY FOR NEWAYGO... KENT... BARRY... KALAMAZOO AND
MONTCALM COUNTIES. THIS SINCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THOSE COUNTIES UNTIL THE WINDS FINALLY BACK MORE TO THE SSW DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AT WHICH POINT THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MAINLY WEST OF US-131 ACROSS OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 259 PM
EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE GREATEST IMPACT TO TRAVEL IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL LIKELY
BE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY FROM HOLLAND TOWARD LUDINGTON
WITH HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. WINDS PICK
UP LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT MORE WESTERLY...BRINGING STEADIER SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN INTO THE GRAND RAPIDS AREA AND LOCATIONS
NEAR/WEST OF US 131. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.

BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WAA WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP AS WINDS SHOULD
BECOME DUE SOUTH OR EVEN SSE FROM MUSKEGON NORTHWARD ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE SHORELINE AROUND 18Z
WEDNESDAY AND IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME THAT THINGS COULD GET
RATHER INTERESTING. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF ARW AND NAMDNG5
SUGGEST A DOMINANT BAND OR EVEN A MESOLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR
BIG AND LITTLE SABLE POINTS IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG SFC
CONVERGENCE AS WINDS GO WESTERLY OVER THE LAKE BUT STAY SSE OVER THE
LAKESHORE REGION. THAT BEING SAID...NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
BULLSEYE OF OMEGAS AT MKG AND LDM BELOW THE DGZ BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...THANKS TO WAA BUMPING UP THE DGZ A FEW THOUSAND FEET
HIGHER DURING THE DAY...SO THIS COULD MITIGATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS.

I WOULD ENVISION A DOMINANT LAKE BAND THAT MOVES PARTICULARLY INTO
MASON AND OCEANA COUNTIES BUT COULD EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH INTO
MUSKEGON AND OTTAWA COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT HEADS EAST. DURING THE 15Z TO 21Z TIME
FRAME...IT COULD GET RATHER DICEY ANYWHERE ALONG THE LAKESHORE BUT
PARTICULARLY FROM HOLLAND TO LUDINGTON AS THIS BAND MOVES ON SHORE.
BRIEFLY VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS...WITH
1"-2" PER HOUR POSSIBLE. DOMINANT BANDS AND MESOLOWS CAN PRODUCE
VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME...LEADING TO VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS. BUT SINCE THIS BAND
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME...THE LOWER RESIDENCE TIME MAY KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS IN CHECK.

AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ANY DOMINANT BAND WILL
COME TO AN END AS MULTI-BAND SNOW SHOWERS SET UP ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN. INLAND...WE ARE LOOKING AT GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
WHILE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE THOSE GUSTS COULD BE 30-35 MPH. THE
DGZ WILL BE FULLY SATURATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THOUGH LIFT WILL
BE WANING A BIT ON THURSDAY. THAT BEING SAID THE 1000MB-700MB LAPSE
RATES DO STEEPEN FROM 5-6C/KM ON WEDNESDAY TO 6-7C/KM ON THURSDAY.
0-2KM THETA E LAPSE RATES DO GO NEGATIVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS ADVERTISED WITH TOTALS BY THURSDAY EVENING AROUND
4"-7" OR A BIT HIGHER NEAR/WEST OF US 131.

AFTER A QUIETER FRIDAY...RAPID WAA ENSUES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THIS OCCURS. COULD BE SOME IMPACTS TO TRAVEL FOR
A BRIEF TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE
NOV 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL FEATURE A TEMPORARY PATTERN
SHIFT FOR THE AREA BRINGING WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO MON. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL THEN SETTLE BACK INTO A
COOLER PATTERN WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THEN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD ON TUE.

THE TRANSITION TO THE TEMPORARY WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN COULD BE A
BIT TRICKY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY
SAT. WE WILL SEE A STRONG SHORT WAVE COMING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST
COAST ON THU EVENTUALLY LIFT NE TOWARD SAT AS ANOTHER LONGER WAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND ABSORBS IT. THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE
PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT THE COLDER AIR AT THE SFC WILL
TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO BE USHERED OUT. THE WARMER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WIN OUT AS A DEEP SRLY FLOW MOVES IN.

THERE WILL THEN BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MON AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES AND ADVECTS WARM AND MOIST AIR
NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WILL HELP TO MELT A GOOD DEAL OF THE
RECENT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS ON THIS.

COLDER AIR WILL THEN MAKE A RETURN ON MON AND CONTINUE INTO
TUE...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE WEEKEND
WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR...WITH SOME IFR FROM MKG TO GRR.
EXPECT VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM BTL TO JXN AND NORTH
TO LAN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

NONE OF OUR REPORTING STATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING GALES THIS
AFTERNOON SO I CANCELED THE GALE WARNING AND ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FROM NOW THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL HAVE A SHORT
WINDOW OF GALES WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT TO KEEP HEADLINES SIMPLE FOR
NOW WE WENT WITH THE DOMINATE WIND SPEED WHICH IS BELOW GALE
FORCE. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL UPGRADE TO GALES SO WHAT FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES TO THIS WITH LATER FORECASTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

I AM RATHER CONCERNED ABOUT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND AS
STRONG STORM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE CURRENT SNOW PACK WITH FROZEN GROUND. AFTER COORDINATION
WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER... WE DECIDED THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING IS THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT IT
IS MINOR BUT WE WILL HAVE TO STAY ON TOP OF THIS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ044-051-
     057-065-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAURENS
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 182347
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
647 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE CURRENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING ADDITIONAL ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT WILL TRANSITION
INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY...TAPERING TO FLURRIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER AIR WITH RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL LIKELY START AS
FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

THE COLD AIR RETURNS LATER MONDAY SO THE RAIN CHANGES BACK TO SNOW
SHOWERS. EXPECT COLDER WEATHER INTO THANKSGIVING WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 259 PM
EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE GREATEST IMPACT TO TRAVEL IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL LIKELY
BE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY FROM HOLLAND TOWARD LUDINGTON
WITH HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. WINDS PICK
UP LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT MORE WESTERLY...BRINGING STEADIER SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN INTO THE GRAND RAPIDS AREA AND LOCATIONS
NEAR/WEST OF US 131. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.

BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WAA WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP AS WINDS SHOULD
BECOME DUE SOUTH OR EVEN SSE FROM MUSKEGON NORTHWARD ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE SHORELINE AROUND 18Z
WEDNESDAY AND IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME THAT THINGS COULD GET
RATHER INTERESTING. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF ARW AND NAMDNG5
SUGGEST A DOMINANT BAND OR EVEN A MESOLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR
BIG AND LITTLE SABLE POINTS IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG SFC
CONVERGENCE AS WINDS GO WESTERLY OVER THE LAKE BUT STAY SSE OVER THE
LAKESHORE REGION. THAT BEING SAID...NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
BULLSEYE OF OMEGAS AT MKG AND LDM BELOW THE DGZ BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...THANKS TO WAA BUMPING UP THE DGZ A FEW THOUSAND FEET
HIGHER DURING THE DAY...SO THIS COULD MITIGATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS.

I WOULD ENVISION A DOMINANT LAKE BAND THAT MOVES PARTICULARLY INTO
MASON AND OCEANA COUNTIES BUT COULD EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH INTO
MUSKEGON AND OTTAWA COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT HEADS EAST. DURING THE 15Z TO 21Z TIME
FRAME...IT COULD GET RATHER DICEY ANYWHERE ALONG THE LAKESHORE BUT
PARTICULARLY FROM HOLLAND TO LUDINGTON AS THIS BAND MOVES ON SHORE.
BRIEFLY VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS...WITH
1"-2" PER HOUR POSSIBLE. DOMINANT BANDS AND MESOLOWS CAN PRODUCE
VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME...LEADING TO VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS. BUT SINCE THIS BAND
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME...THE LOWER RESIDENCE TIME MAY KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS IN CHECK.

AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ANY DOMINANT BAND WILL
COME TO AN END AS MULTI-BAND SNOW SHOWERS SET UP ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN. INLAND...WE ARE LOOKING AT GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
WHILE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE THOSE GUSTS COULD BE 30-35 MPH. THE
DGZ WILL BE FULLY SATURATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THOUGH LIFT WILL
BE WANING A BIT ON THURSDAY. THAT BEING SAID THE 1000MB-700MB LAPSE
RATES DO STEEPEN FROM 5-6C/KM ON WEDNESDAY TO 6-7C/KM ON THURSDAY.
0-2KM THETA E LAPSE RATES DO GO NEGATIVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS ADVERTISED WITH TOTALS BY THURSDAY EVENING AROUND
4"-7" OR A BIT HIGHER NEAR/WEST OF US 131.

AFTER A QUIETER FRIDAY...RAPID WAA ENSUES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THIS OCCURS. COULD BE SOME IMPACTS TO TRAVEL FOR
A BRIEF TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE
NOV 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL FEATURE A TEMPORARY PATTERN
SHIFT FOR THE AREA BRINGING WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO MON. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL THEN SETTLE BACK INTO A
COOLER PATTERN WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THEN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD ON TUE.

THE TRANSITION TO THE TEMPORARY WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN COULD BE A
BIT TRICKY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY
SAT. WE WILL SEE A STRONG SHORT WAVE COMING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST
COAST ON THU EVENTUALLY LIFT NE TOWARD SAT AS ANOTHER LONGER WAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND ABSORBS IT. THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE
PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT THE COLDER AIR AT THE SFC WILL
TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO BE USHERED OUT. THE WARMER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WIN OUT AS A DEEP SRLY FLOW MOVES IN.

THERE WILL THEN BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MON AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES AND ADVECTS WARM AND MOIST AIR
NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WILL HELP TO MELT A GOOD DEAL OF THE
RECENT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS ON THIS.

COLDER AIR WILL THEN MAKE A RETURN ON MON AND CONTINUE INTO
TUE...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE WEEKEND
WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR...WITH SOME IFR FROM MKG TO GRR.
EXPECT VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM BTL TO JXN AND NORTH
TO LAN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

NONE OF OUR REPORTING STATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING GALES THIS
AFTERNOON SO I CANCELED THE GALE WARNING AND ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FROM NOW THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL HAVE A SHORT
WINDOW OF GALES WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT TO KEEP HEADLINES SIMPLE FOR
NOW WE WENT WITH THE DOMINATE WIND SPEED WHICH IS BELOW GALE
FORCE. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL UPGRADE TO GALES SO WHAT FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES TO THIS WITH LATER FORECASTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

I AM RATHER CONCERNED ABOUT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND AS
STRONG STORM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE CURRENT SNOW PACK WITH FROZEN GROUND. AFTER COORDINATION
WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER... WE DECIDED THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING IS THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT IT
IS MINOR BUT WE WILL HAVE TO STAY ON TOP OF THIS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-044-050-056>058-064>066-071>073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 182347
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
647 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE CURRENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING ADDITIONAL ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT WILL TRANSITION
INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY...TAPERING TO FLURRIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER AIR WITH RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL LIKELY START AS
FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

THE COLD AIR RETURNS LATER MONDAY SO THE RAIN CHANGES BACK TO SNOW
SHOWERS. EXPECT COLDER WEATHER INTO THANKSGIVING WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 259 PM
EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE GREATEST IMPACT TO TRAVEL IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL LIKELY
BE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY FROM HOLLAND TOWARD LUDINGTON
WITH HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. WINDS PICK
UP LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT MORE WESTERLY...BRINGING STEADIER SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN INTO THE GRAND RAPIDS AREA AND LOCATIONS
NEAR/WEST OF US 131. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.

BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WAA WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP AS WINDS SHOULD
BECOME DUE SOUTH OR EVEN SSE FROM MUSKEGON NORTHWARD ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE SHORELINE AROUND 18Z
WEDNESDAY AND IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME THAT THINGS COULD GET
RATHER INTERESTING. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF ARW AND NAMDNG5
SUGGEST A DOMINANT BAND OR EVEN A MESOLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR
BIG AND LITTLE SABLE POINTS IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG SFC
CONVERGENCE AS WINDS GO WESTERLY OVER THE LAKE BUT STAY SSE OVER THE
LAKESHORE REGION. THAT BEING SAID...NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
BULLSEYE OF OMEGAS AT MKG AND LDM BELOW THE DGZ BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...THANKS TO WAA BUMPING UP THE DGZ A FEW THOUSAND FEET
HIGHER DURING THE DAY...SO THIS COULD MITIGATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS.

I WOULD ENVISION A DOMINANT LAKE BAND THAT MOVES PARTICULARLY INTO
MASON AND OCEANA COUNTIES BUT COULD EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH INTO
MUSKEGON AND OTTAWA COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT HEADS EAST. DURING THE 15Z TO 21Z TIME
FRAME...IT COULD GET RATHER DICEY ANYWHERE ALONG THE LAKESHORE BUT
PARTICULARLY FROM HOLLAND TO LUDINGTON AS THIS BAND MOVES ON SHORE.
BRIEFLY VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS...WITH
1"-2" PER HOUR POSSIBLE. DOMINANT BANDS AND MESOLOWS CAN PRODUCE
VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME...LEADING TO VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS. BUT SINCE THIS BAND
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME...THE LOWER RESIDENCE TIME MAY KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS IN CHECK.

AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ANY DOMINANT BAND WILL
COME TO AN END AS MULTI-BAND SNOW SHOWERS SET UP ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN. INLAND...WE ARE LOOKING AT GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
WHILE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE THOSE GUSTS COULD BE 30-35 MPH. THE
DGZ WILL BE FULLY SATURATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THOUGH LIFT WILL
BE WANING A BIT ON THURSDAY. THAT BEING SAID THE 1000MB-700MB LAPSE
RATES DO STEEPEN FROM 5-6C/KM ON WEDNESDAY TO 6-7C/KM ON THURSDAY.
0-2KM THETA E LAPSE RATES DO GO NEGATIVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS ADVERTISED WITH TOTALS BY THURSDAY EVENING AROUND
4"-7" OR A BIT HIGHER NEAR/WEST OF US 131.

AFTER A QUIETER FRIDAY...RAPID WAA ENSUES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THIS OCCURS. COULD BE SOME IMPACTS TO TRAVEL FOR
A BRIEF TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE
NOV 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL FEATURE A TEMPORARY PATTERN
SHIFT FOR THE AREA BRINGING WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO MON. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL THEN SETTLE BACK INTO A
COOLER PATTERN WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THEN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD ON TUE.

THE TRANSITION TO THE TEMPORARY WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN COULD BE A
BIT TRICKY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY
SAT. WE WILL SEE A STRONG SHORT WAVE COMING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST
COAST ON THU EVENTUALLY LIFT NE TOWARD SAT AS ANOTHER LONGER WAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND ABSORBS IT. THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE
PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT THE COLDER AIR AT THE SFC WILL
TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO BE USHERED OUT. THE WARMER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WIN OUT AS A DEEP SRLY FLOW MOVES IN.

THERE WILL THEN BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MON AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES AND ADVECTS WARM AND MOIST AIR
NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WILL HELP TO MELT A GOOD DEAL OF THE
RECENT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS ON THIS.

COLDER AIR WILL THEN MAKE A RETURN ON MON AND CONTINUE INTO
TUE...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE WEEKEND
WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR...WITH SOME IFR FROM MKG TO GRR.
EXPECT VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM BTL TO JXN AND NORTH
TO LAN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

NONE OF OUR REPORTING STATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING GALES THIS
AFTERNOON SO I CANCELED THE GALE WARNING AND ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FROM NOW THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL HAVE A SHORT
WINDOW OF GALES WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT TO KEEP HEADLINES SIMPLE FOR
NOW WE WENT WITH THE DOMINATE WIND SPEED WHICH IS BELOW GALE
FORCE. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL UPGRADE TO GALES SO WHAT FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES TO THIS WITH LATER FORECASTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

I AM RATHER CONCERNED ABOUT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND AS
STRONG STORM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE CURRENT SNOW PACK WITH FROZEN GROUND. AFTER COORDINATION
WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER... WE DECIDED THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING IS THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT IT
IS MINOR BUT WE WILL HAVE TO STAY ON TOP OF THIS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-044-050-056>058-064>066-071>073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 181959
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE CURRENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING ADDITIONAL ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT WILL TRANSITION
INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY...TAPERING TO FLURRIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER AIR WITH RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL LIKELY START AS
FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

THE COLD AIR RETURNS LATER MONDAY SO THE RAIN CHANGES BACK TO SNOW
SHOWERS. EXPECT COLDER WEATHER INTO THANKSGIVING WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLE.


&&

.STORM TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

WE WILL DROP THE ADVISORIES WITH THE FORECAST UPDATE WITH OUR 330
PM FORECAST ISSUANCE BUT MAINTAIN THE WARNING HEADLINES INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. WE WILL THEN TRANSITION HEADLINES INTO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BEING DEEP WITHIN UPPER LEVEL COLD AIR POOL AND HAVING THE POLAR
JET WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN TONIGHT... WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
INVERSION HEIGHTS DEEP ENOUGH SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT. WHAT CHANGES TONIGHT IS THAT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH
CAUSING THE AXIS OF THE SNOW BANDS TO SHIFT FROM PRIMARILY FROM
WEST EAST AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS... TO A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORDINATION BY MIDNIGHT THEN NEARLY SOUTH TO
NORTH BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT
ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN CAUSE
THE SNOW SHOWERS TO STRENTHEN ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING BUT THAT WILL
EXIT THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. EVEN SO SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WARNING COUNTIES MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT TOWARD MORNING
SYSTEM SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.


.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 259 PM
EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE GREATEST IMPACT TO TRAVEL IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL LIKELY
BE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY FROM HOLLAND TOWARD LUDINGTON
WITH HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. WINDS PICK
UP LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT MORE WESTERLY...BRINGING STEADIER SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN INTO THE GRAND RAPIDS AREA AND LOCATIONS
NEAR/WEST OF US 131. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.

BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WAA WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP AS WINDS SHOULD
BECOME DUE SOUTH OR EVEN SSE FROM MUSKEGON NORTHWARD ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE SHORELINE AROUND 18Z
WEDNESDAY AND IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME THAT THINGS COULD GET
RATHER INTERESTING. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF ARW AND NAMDNG5
SUGGEST A DOMINANT BAND OR EVEN A MESOLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR
BIG AND LITTLE SABLE POINTS IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG SFC
CONVERGENCE AS WINDS GO WESTERLY OVER THE LAKE BUT STAY SSE OVER THE
LAKESHORE REGION. THAT BEING SAID...NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
BULLSEYE OF OMEGAS AT MKG AND LDM BELOW THE DGZ BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...THANKS TO WAA BUMPING UP THE DGZ A FEW THOUSAND FEET
HIGHER DURING THE DAY...SO THIS COULD MITIGATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS.

I WOULD ENVISION A DOMINANT LAKE BAND THAT MOVES PARTICULARLY INTO
MASON AND OCEANA COUNTIES BUT COULD EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH INTO
MUSKEGON AND OTTAWA COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT HEADS EAST. DURING THE 15Z TO 21Z TIME
FRAME...IT COULD GET RATHER DICEY ANYWHERE ALONG THE LAKESHORE BUT
PARTICULARLY FROM HOLLAND TO LUDINGTON AS THIS BAND MOVES ON SHORE.
BRIEFLY VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS...WITH
1"-2" PER HOUR POSSIBLE. DOMINANT BANDS AND MESOLOWS CAN PRODUCE
VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME...LEADING TO VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS. BUT SINCE THIS BAND
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME...THE LOWER RESIDENCE TIME MAY KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS IN CHECK.

AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ANY DOMINANT BAND WILL
COME TO AN END AS MULTI-BAND SNOW SHOWERS SET UP ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN. INLAND...WE ARE LOOKING AT GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
WHILE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE THOSE GUSTS COULD BE 30-35 MPH. THE
DGZ WILL BE FULLY SATURATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THOUGH LIFT WILL
BE WANING A BIT ON THURSDAY. THAT BEING SAID THE 1000MB-700MB LAPSE
RATES DO STEEPEN FROM 5-6C/KM ON WEDNESDAY TO 6-7C/KM ON THURSDAY.
0-2KM THETA E LAPSE RATES DO GO NEGATIVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS ADVERTISED WITH TOTALS BY THURSDAY EVENING AROUND
4"-7" OR A BIT HIGHER NEAR/WEST OF US 131.

AFTER A QUIETER FRIDAY...RAPID WAA ENSUES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THIS OCCURS. COULD BE SOME IMPACTS TO TRAVEL FOR
A BRIEF TIME.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE
NOV 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL FEATURE A TEMPORARY PATTERN
SHIFT FOR THE AREA BRINGING WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO MON. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL THEN SETTLE BACK INTO A
COOLER PATTERN WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THEN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD ON TUE.

THE TRANSITION TO THE TEMPORARY WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN COULD BE A
BIT TRICKY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY
SAT. WE WILL SEE A STRONG SHORT WAVE COMING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST
COAST ON THU EVENTUALLY LIFT NE TOWARD SAT AS ANOTHER LONGER WAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND ABSORBS IT. THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE
PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT THE COLDER AIR AT THE SFC WILL
TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO BE USHERED OUT. THE WARMER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WIN OUT AS A DEEP SRLY FLOW MOVES IN.

THERE WILL THEN BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MON AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES AND ADVECTS WARM AND MOIST AIR
NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WILL HELP TO MELT A GOOD DEAL OF THE
RECENT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS ON THIS.

COLDER AIR WILL THEN MAKE A RETURN ON MON AND CONTINUE INTO
TUE...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE WEEKEND
WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE MKG AND GRR TAF SITES WILL LARGELY REMAIN IFR WITH SNOW INTO
THURSDAY (ANY BREAKS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND BEYOND THE TIME
RESOLUTION WE CURRENTLY HAVE IN OUR MODELS TO EFFECTIVELY FORECAST).
MEANWHILE AZO AND BTL SHOULD SEE THE SNOW COME TO AN END EARLY
EVENING AS WINDS START TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AT CLOUD LEVEL. I
WOULD EXPECT VFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES (AZO...BTL..JXN AND LAN)
THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW. THAT SYSTEM SHOULD BRING IFR CIGS/VSBY IN SNOW TO
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

NONE OF OUR REPORTING STATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING GALES THIS
AFTERNOON SO I CANCELED THE GALE WARNING AND ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FROM NOW THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL HAVE A SHORT
WINDOW OF GALES WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT TO KEEP HEADLINES SIMPLE FOR
NOW WE WENT WITH THE DOMINATE WIND SPEED WHICH IS BELOW GALE
FORCE. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL UPGRADE TO GALES SO WHAT FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES TO THIS WITH LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

I AM RATHER CONCERNED ABOUT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND AS
STRONG STORM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE CURRENT SNOW PACK WITH FROZEN GROUND. AFTER COORDINATION
WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER... WE DECIDED THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING IS THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT IT
IS MINOR BUT WE WILL HAVE TO STAY ON TOP OF THIS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-044-050-056>058-064>066-071>073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







000
FXUS63 KGRR 181959
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE CURRENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING ADDITIONAL ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT WILL TRANSITION
INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY...TAPERING TO FLURRIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER AIR WITH RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL LIKELY START AS
FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

THE COLD AIR RETURNS LATER MONDAY SO THE RAIN CHANGES BACK TO SNOW
SHOWERS. EXPECT COLDER WEATHER INTO THANKSGIVING WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLE.


&&

.STORM TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

WE WILL DROP THE ADVISORIES WITH THE FORECAST UPDATE WITH OUR 330
PM FORECAST ISSUANCE BUT MAINTAIN THE WARNING HEADLINES INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. WE WILL THEN TRANSITION HEADLINES INTO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BEING DEEP WITHIN UPPER LEVEL COLD AIR POOL AND HAVING THE POLAR
JET WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN TONIGHT... WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
INVERSION HEIGHTS DEEP ENOUGH SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT. WHAT CHANGES TONIGHT IS THAT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH
CAUSING THE AXIS OF THE SNOW BANDS TO SHIFT FROM PRIMARILY FROM
WEST EAST AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS... TO A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORDINATION BY MIDNIGHT THEN NEARLY SOUTH TO
NORTH BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT
ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN CAUSE
THE SNOW SHOWERS TO STRENTHEN ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING BUT THAT WILL
EXIT THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. EVEN SO SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WARNING COUNTIES MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT TOWARD MORNING
SYSTEM SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.


.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 259 PM
EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE GREATEST IMPACT TO TRAVEL IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL LIKELY
BE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY FROM HOLLAND TOWARD LUDINGTON
WITH HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. WINDS PICK
UP LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT MORE WESTERLY...BRINGING STEADIER SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN INTO THE GRAND RAPIDS AREA AND LOCATIONS
NEAR/WEST OF US 131. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.

BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WAA WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP AS WINDS SHOULD
BECOME DUE SOUTH OR EVEN SSE FROM MUSKEGON NORTHWARD ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE SHORELINE AROUND 18Z
WEDNESDAY AND IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME THAT THINGS COULD GET
RATHER INTERESTING. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF ARW AND NAMDNG5
SUGGEST A DOMINANT BAND OR EVEN A MESOLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR
BIG AND LITTLE SABLE POINTS IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG SFC
CONVERGENCE AS WINDS GO WESTERLY OVER THE LAKE BUT STAY SSE OVER THE
LAKESHORE REGION. THAT BEING SAID...NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
BULLSEYE OF OMEGAS AT MKG AND LDM BELOW THE DGZ BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...THANKS TO WAA BUMPING UP THE DGZ A FEW THOUSAND FEET
HIGHER DURING THE DAY...SO THIS COULD MITIGATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS.

I WOULD ENVISION A DOMINANT LAKE BAND THAT MOVES PARTICULARLY INTO
MASON AND OCEANA COUNTIES BUT COULD EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH INTO
MUSKEGON AND OTTAWA COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT HEADS EAST. DURING THE 15Z TO 21Z TIME
FRAME...IT COULD GET RATHER DICEY ANYWHERE ALONG THE LAKESHORE BUT
PARTICULARLY FROM HOLLAND TO LUDINGTON AS THIS BAND MOVES ON SHORE.
BRIEFLY VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS...WITH
1"-2" PER HOUR POSSIBLE. DOMINANT BANDS AND MESOLOWS CAN PRODUCE
VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME...LEADING TO VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS. BUT SINCE THIS BAND
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME...THE LOWER RESIDENCE TIME MAY KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS IN CHECK.

AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ANY DOMINANT BAND WILL
COME TO AN END AS MULTI-BAND SNOW SHOWERS SET UP ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN. INLAND...WE ARE LOOKING AT GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
WHILE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE THOSE GUSTS COULD BE 30-35 MPH. THE
DGZ WILL BE FULLY SATURATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THOUGH LIFT WILL
BE WANING A BIT ON THURSDAY. THAT BEING SAID THE 1000MB-700MB LAPSE
RATES DO STEEPEN FROM 5-6C/KM ON WEDNESDAY TO 6-7C/KM ON THURSDAY.
0-2KM THETA E LAPSE RATES DO GO NEGATIVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS ADVERTISED WITH TOTALS BY THURSDAY EVENING AROUND
4"-7" OR A BIT HIGHER NEAR/WEST OF US 131.

AFTER A QUIETER FRIDAY...RAPID WAA ENSUES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THIS OCCURS. COULD BE SOME IMPACTS TO TRAVEL FOR
A BRIEF TIME.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE
NOV 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL FEATURE A TEMPORARY PATTERN
SHIFT FOR THE AREA BRINGING WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO MON. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL THEN SETTLE BACK INTO A
COOLER PATTERN WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THEN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD ON TUE.

THE TRANSITION TO THE TEMPORARY WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN COULD BE A
BIT TRICKY FOR A SHORT TIME WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY
SAT. WE WILL SEE A STRONG SHORT WAVE COMING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST
COAST ON THU EVENTUALLY LIFT NE TOWARD SAT AS ANOTHER LONGER WAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND ABSORBS IT. THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE
PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT THE COLDER AIR AT THE SFC WILL
TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO BE USHERED OUT. THE WARMER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WIN OUT AS A DEEP SRLY FLOW MOVES IN.

THERE WILL THEN BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MON AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES AND ADVECTS WARM AND MOIST AIR
NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WILL HELP TO MELT A GOOD DEAL OF THE
RECENT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS ON THIS.

COLDER AIR WILL THEN MAKE A RETURN ON MON AND CONTINUE INTO
TUE...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE WEEKEND
WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE MKG AND GRR TAF SITES WILL LARGELY REMAIN IFR WITH SNOW INTO
THURSDAY (ANY BREAKS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND BEYOND THE TIME
RESOLUTION WE CURRENTLY HAVE IN OUR MODELS TO EFFECTIVELY FORECAST).
MEANWHILE AZO AND BTL SHOULD SEE THE SNOW COME TO AN END EARLY
EVENING AS WINDS START TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AT CLOUD LEVEL. I
WOULD EXPECT VFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES (AZO...BTL..JXN AND LAN)
THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW. THAT SYSTEM SHOULD BRING IFR CIGS/VSBY IN SNOW TO
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

NONE OF OUR REPORTING STATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING GALES THIS
AFTERNOON SO I CANCELED THE GALE WARNING AND ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FROM NOW THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL HAVE A SHORT
WINDOW OF GALES WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT TO KEEP HEADLINES SIMPLE FOR
NOW WE WENT WITH THE DOMINATE WIND SPEED WHICH IS BELOW GALE
FORCE. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL UPGRADE TO GALES SO WHAT FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES TO THIS WITH LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

I AM RATHER CONCERNED ABOUT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND AS
STRONG STORM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE CURRENT SNOW PACK WITH FROZEN GROUND. AFTER COORDINATION
WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER... WE DECIDED THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING IS THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT IT
IS MINOR BUT WE WILL HAVE TO STAY ON TOP OF THIS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-044-050-056>058-064>066-071>073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM








000
FXUS63 KGRR 181749
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1249 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SNOW WEDNESDAY
THAT COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR GRAND HAVEN
NORTHWARD TO LUDINGTON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FINALLY MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

OUR CURRENT PLAN IS TO KEEP OUR WARNING HEADLINES AS IS THROUGH 9
PM TONIGHT AS I DO NOT SEE CONDITIONS REALLY IMPROVING MUCH UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET. THEN WE WILL HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
OTTAWA...MUSKEGON...OCEANA...AND MASON FROM 9 PM THROUGH 7 PM ON
WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL CAPTURE THE DOMINANT LAKE SNOW BAND THAT
MOVES ON SHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR AND WEST OF US-31.

WE WILL KILL THE CURRENT ADVISORIES WITH THE 4 PM ZONES. THIS IS
BASED ON LOOKING AT BOTH THE CURRENT HIGHWAY SPEEDS (NEAR NORMAL
ON M-127 BUT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED ALONG I-94 AND I-96 WEST OF
LANSING AND JACKSON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH H8 TEMPS
WAY DOWN AROUND -17 TO -18 C RESULTING IN EXTREME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WITH HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES ACROSS THE COUNTIES IN THE WARNING AREA AND PARTICULARLY
NEAR TO JUST WEST OF US-131. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH BRISK WEST
WINDS THAT WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FINALLY SLOWLY LOWER. THE BANDS WILL ALSO
SHIFT ORIENTATION TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE SW.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS EVENT FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WARNING AREA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS EVENT ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONLY AROUND AN INCH TO
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES. WE HAVE DECIDED TO DROP CLARE... ISABELLA
AND GRATIOT COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING SINCE
NEARLY ALL SNOW OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE IS STAYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST OF
THOSE COUNTIES.

A CLASSIC SSW TO SW FLOW LAKE ENHANCED HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY
FOR WEDNESDAY FROM NEAR GRAND HAVEN NORTHWARD ALONG THE LAKE MI
SHORELINE WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND RESULT IN
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED LES BANDS THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE IT WELL
INLAND GIVEN BRISK WEST WINDS.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY RANGING
FROM AROUND 5 TO 10 INCHES NEAR US-31 FROM HOLLAND NORTHWARD TO
LUDINGTON TO AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES FURTHER INLAND. THE WESTERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH H8 TEMPS STILL DOWN AROUND -16 C ALONG WITH SOME
LIFT INTO THE DGZ AND DEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE SHORT TERM.
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PULLING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A SLOW DEMISE TO THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW THROUGH THOSE TWO PERIODS. 850MB TEMPS MODERATE...SO EXPECT
THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY PREVALENT
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DWINDLE AND END ON FRIDAY.

A REPRIEVE FROM PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED...FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A WARM AIR ADVECTION SURGE BRINGS A MIX BACK IN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICKER TREND IN THE MODELS ON THIS RETURN PRECIP
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN A ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER ACROSS THE
LOWER 48.

EXPECTING SOME TRANSITION TYPE PRECIP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE SURGING INTO A COLD LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS GIVEN OUR DEEPENING SNOW PACK. HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
FORECAST...BUT FREEZING RAIN WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER.
AS MODEL DATA ZERO/S IN ON TRENDS WE MAY NEED TO ADD FREEZING PRECIP
INTO THE FORECAST.

MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON THE SLOPPY SIDE
AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN VIA BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF. RAIN ONTO A MELTING SNOW PACK WILL BRING AN EARLY SPRING FEEL
AS OPPOSED TO LATE NOVEMBER.

MONDAY...COLDER AIR WRAPS BACK INTO THE AREA AND EXPECTING THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW. BY 00Z TUES 850MB
TEMPS THAT WERE UP AROUND +6C SAT NIGHT/SUN WILL BE DROPPING BACK
INTO THE -4C TO -8C RANGE.

A DEEP WINTER FEEL TO START THIS WEEK WILL SWITCH TO A SPRING FEEL
WITH A MELTING SNOW BACK LATE THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING
BACK INTO THE 40S FOR SUNDAY...WHICH IS ACTUALLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE MKG AND GRR TAF SITES WILL LARGELY REMAIN IFR WITH SNOW INTO
THURSDAY (ANY BREAKS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND BEYOND THE TIME
RESOLUTION WE CURRENTLY HAVE IN OUR MODELS TO EFFECTIVELY FORECAST).
MEANWHILE AZO AND BTL SHOULD SEE THE SNOW COME TO AN END EARLY
EVENING AS WINDS START TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AT CLOUD LEVEL. I
WOULD EXPECT VFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES (AZO...BTL..JXN AND LAN)
THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW. THAT SYSTEM SHOULD BRING IFR CIGS/VSBY IN SNOW TO
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z.



&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE DEALT WITH BY FUTURE SHIFTS AFTER
THE GALE EVENT TODAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX AND ALL PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME ICE MAY DEVELOP ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS WEEK WITH THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS.
TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH RAIN/SNOW MELT MAY POTENTIALLY CAUSE A FEW MINOR
HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-044-050-056>058-064>066-071>073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ037-043-050-056.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 181653
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1153 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SNOW WEDNESDAY
THAT COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR GRAND HAVEN
NORTHWARD TO LUDINGTON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FINALLY MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

OUR CURRENT PLAN IS TO KEEP OUR WARNING HEADLINES AS IS THROUGH 9
PM TONIGHT AS I DO NOT SEE CONDITIONS REALLY IMPROVING MUCH UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET. THEN WE WILL HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
OTTAWA...MUSKEGON...OCEANA...AND MASON FROM 9 PM THROUGH 7 PM ON
WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL CAPTURE THE DOMINANT LAKE SNOW BAND THAT
MOVES ON SHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR AND WEST OF US-31.

WE WILL KILL THE CURRENT ADVISORIES WITH THE 4 PM ZONES. THIS IS
BASED ON LOOKING AT BOTH THE CURRENT HIGHWAY SPEEDS (NEAR NORMAL
ON M-127 BUT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED ALONG I-94 AND I-96 WEST OF
LANSING AND JACKSON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH H8 TEMPS
WAY DOWN AROUND -17 TO -18 C RESULTING IN EXTREME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WITH HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES ACROSS THE COUNTIES IN THE WARNING AREA AND PARTICULARLY
NEAR TO JUST WEST OF US-131. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH BRISK WEST
WINDS THAT WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FINALLY SLOWLY LOWER. THE BANDS WILL ALSO
SHIFT ORIENTATION TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE SW.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS EVENT FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WARNING AREA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS EVENT ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONLY AROUND AN INCH TO
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES. WE HAVE DECIDED TO DROP CLARE... ISABELLA
AND GRATIOT COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING SINCE
NEARLY ALL SNOW OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE IS STAYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST OF
THOSE COUNTIES.

A CLASSIC SSW TO SW FLOW LAKE ENHANCED HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY
FOR WEDNESDAY FROM NEAR GRAND HAVEN NORTHWARD ALONG THE LAKE MI
SHORELINE WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND RESULT IN
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED LES BANDS THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE IT WELL
INLAND GIVEN BRISK WEST WINDS.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY RANGING
FROM AROUND 5 TO 10 INCHES NEAR US-31 FROM HOLLAND NORTHWARD TO
LUDINGTON TO AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES FURTHER INLAND. THE WESTERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH H8 TEMPS STILL DOWN AROUND -16 C ALONG WITH SOME
LIFT INTO THE DGZ AND DEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE SHORT TERM.
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PULLING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A SLOW DEMISE TO THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW THROUGH THOSE TWO PERIODS. 850MB TEMPS MODERATE...SO EXPECT
THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY PREVALENT
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DWINDLE AND END ON FRIDAY.

A REPRIEVE FROM PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED...FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A WARM AIR ADVECTION SURGE BRINGS A MIX BACK IN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICKER TREND IN THE MODELS ON THIS RETURN PRECIP
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN A ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER ACROSS THE
LOWER 48.

EXPECTING SOME TRANSITION TYPE PRECIP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE SURGING INTO A COLD LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS GIVEN OUR DEEPENING SNOW PACK. HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
FORECAST...BUT FREEZING RAIN WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER.
AS MODEL DATA ZERO/S IN ON TRENDS WE MAY NEED TO ADD FREEZING PRECIP
INTO THE FORECAST.

MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON THE SLOPPY SIDE
AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN VIA BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF. RAIN ONTO A MELTING SNOW PACK WILL BRING AN EARLY SPRING FEEL
AS OPPOSED TO LATE NOVEMBER.

MONDAY...COLDER AIR WRAPS BACK INTO THE AREA AND EXPECTING THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW. BY 00Z TUES 850MB
TEMPS THAT WERE UP AROUND +6C SAT NIGHT/SUN WILL BE DROPPING BACK
INTO THE -4C TO -8C RANGE.

A DEEP WINTER FEEL TO START THIS WEEK WILL SWITCH TO A SPRING FEEL
WITH A MELTING SNOW BACK LATE THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING
BACK INTO THE 40S FOR SUNDAY...WHICH IS ACTUALLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 707 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INLAND OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN TODAY RESULTING IN POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS. AT
BEST...MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MANY SITES
EXPERIENCING IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS. KMKG...KGRR...KAZO WILL
BE MOST IMPACTED...WITH KLAN AND KBTL NOT FAR BEHIND. KJXN WILL SEE THE
BEST CONDITIONS OUT OF OUR TAF SITES...BUT AGAIN AT AT BEST MVFR.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING TO MVFR AT MOST
SITES AS THE LAKE EFFECT TAPERS OFF A BIT. LATE TONIGHT THOUGH
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA...WITH KMKG TRENDING
TOWARD IFR AND POTENTIALLY LOWER LATE/TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG THROUGH THE DAY WITH 15-25
KNOT WINDS BEING COMMONPLACE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE DEALT WITH BY FUTURE SHIFTS AFTER
THE GALE EVENT TODAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX AND ALL PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME ICE MAY DEVELOP ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS WEEK WITH THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS.
TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH RAIN/SNOW MELT MAY POTENTIALLY CAUSE A FEW MINOR
HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-044-050-056>058-064>066-071>073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ039-
     045-051-059-067-074.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 181207
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
707 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SNOW WEDNESDAY
THAT COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR GRAND HAVEN
NORTHWARD TO LUDINGTON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FINALLY MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH H8 TEMPS
WAY DOWN AROUND -17 TO -18 C RESULTING IN EXTREME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WITH HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES ACROSS THE COUNTIES IN THE WARNING AREA AND PARTICULARLY
NEAR TO JUST WEST OF US-131. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH BRISK WEST
WINDS THAT WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FINALLY SLOWLY LOWER. THE BANDS WILL ALSO
SHIFT ORIENTATION TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE SW.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS EVENT FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WARNING AREA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS EVENT ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONLY AROUND AN INCH TO
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES. WE HAVE DECIDED TO DROP CLARE... ISABELLA
AND GRATIOT COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING SINCE
NEARLY ALL SNOW OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE IS STAYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST OF
THOSE COUNTIES.

A CLASSIC SSW TO SW FLOW LAKE ENHANCED HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY
FOR WEDNESDAY FROM NEAR GRAND HAVEN NORTHWARD ALONG THE LAKE MI
SHORELINE WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND RESULT IN
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED LES BANDS THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE IT WELL
INLAND GIVEN BRISK WEST WINDS.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY RANGING
FROM AROUND 5 TO 10 INCHES NEAR US-31 FROM HOLLAND NORTHWARD TO
LUDINGTON TO AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES FURTHER INLAND. THE WESTERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH H8 TEMPS STILL DOWN AROUND -16 C ALONG WITH SOME
LIFT INTO THE DGZ AND DEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE SHORT TERM.
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PULLING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A SLOW DEMISE TO THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW THROUGH THOSE TWO PERIODS. 850MB TEMPS MODERATE...SO EXPECT
THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY PREVALENT
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DWINDLE AND END ON FRIDAY.

A REPRIEVE FROM PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED...FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A WARM AIR ADVECTION SURGE BRINGS A MIX BACK IN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICKER TREND IN THE MODELS ON THIS RETURN PRECIP
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN A ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER ACROSS THE
LOWER 48.

EXPECTING SOME TRANSITION TYPE PRECIP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE SURGING INTO A COLD LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS GIVEN OUR DEEPENING SNOW PACK. HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
FORECAST...BUT FREEZING RAIN WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER.
AS MODEL DATA ZERO/S IN ON TRENDS WE MAY NEED TO ADD FREEZING PRECIP
INTO THE FORECAST.

MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON THE SLOPPY SIDE
AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN VIA BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF. RAIN ONTO A MELTING SNOW PACK WILL BRING AN EARLY SPRING FEEL
AS OPPOSED TO LATE NOVEMBER.

MONDAY...COLDER AIR WRAPS BACK INTO THE AREA AND EXPECTING THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW. BY 00Z TUES 850MB
TEMPS THAT WERE UP AROUND +6C SAT NIGHT/SUN WILL BE DROPPING BACK
INTO THE -4C TO -8C RANGE.

A DEEP WINTER FEEL TO START THIS WEEK WILL SWITCH TO A SPRING FEEL
WITH A MELTING SNOW BACK LATE THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING
BACK INTO THE 40S FOR SUNDAY...WHICH IS ACTUALLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 707 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INLAND OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN TODAY RESULTING IN POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS. AT
BEST...MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MANY SITES
EXPERIENCING IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS. KMKG...KGRR...KAZO WILL
BE MOST IMPACTED...WITH KLAN AND KBTL NOT FAR BEHIND. KJXN WILL SEE THE
BEST CONDITIONS OUT OF OUR TAF SITES...BUT AGAIN AT AT BEST MVFR.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING TO MVFR AT MOST
SITES AS THE LAKE EFFECT TAPERS OFF A BIT. LATE TONIGHT THOUGH
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA...WITH KMKG TRENDING
TOWARD IFR AND POTENTIALLY LOWER LATE/TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG THROUGH THE DAY WITH 15-25
KNOT WINDS BEING COMMONPLACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE DEALT WITH BY FUTURE SHIFTS AFTER
THE GALE EVENT TODAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX AND ALL PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME ICE MAY DEVELOP ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS WEEK WITH THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS.
TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH RAIN/SNOW MELT MAY POTENTIALLY CAUSE A FEW MINOR
HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-044-050-056>058-064>066-071>073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ039-
     045-051-059-067-074.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS








000
FXUS63 KGRR 180829
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SNOW WEDNESDAY
THAT COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLLY FROM NEAR GRAND HAVEN
NORTHWARD TO LUDINGTON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FINALLY MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH H8 TEMPS
WAY DOWN AROUND -17 TO -18 C RESULTING IN EXTREME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WITH HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES ACROSS THE COUNTIES IN THE WARNING AREA AND PARTICULARLY
NEAR TO JUST WEST OF US-131. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH BRISK WEST
WINDS THAT WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FINALLY SLOWLY LOWER. THE BANDS WILL ALSO
SHIFT ORIENTATION TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE SW.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS EVENT FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WARNING AREA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS EVENT ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONLY AROUND AN INCH TO
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES. WE HAVE DECIDED TO DROP CLARE... ISABELLA
AND GRATIOT COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING SINCE
NEARLY ALL SNOW OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE IS STAYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST OF
THOSE COUNTIES.

A CLASSIC SSW TO SW FLOW LAKE ENHANCED HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY
FOR WEDNESDAY FROM NEAR GRAND HAVEN NORTHWARD ALONG THE LAKE MI
SHORRLINE WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND RESULT IN
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED LES BANDS THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE IT WELL
INLAND GIVEN BRISK WEST WINDS.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY RANGING
FROM AROUND 5 TO 10 INCHES NEAR US-31 FROM HOLLAND NORTHWARD TO
LUDINGTON TO AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES FURTHER INLAND. THE WESTERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH H8 TEMPS STILL DOWN AROUND -16 C ALONG WITH SOME
LIFT INTO THE DGZ AND DEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE SHORT TERM.
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PULLING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A SLOW DEMISE TO THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW THROUGH THOSE TWO PERIODS. 850MB TEMPS MODERATE...SO EXPECT
THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY PREVALENT
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DWINDLE AND END ON FRIDAY.

A REPRIEVE FROM PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED...FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A WARM AIR ADVECTION SURGE BRINGS A MIX BACK IN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICKER TREND IN THE MODELS ON THIS RETURN PRECIP
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN A ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER ACROSS THE
LOWER 48.

EXPECTING SOME TRANSITION TYPE PRECIP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE SURGING INTO A COLD LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS GIVEN OUR DEEPENING SNOW PACK. HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
FORECAST...BUT FREEZING RAIN WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER.
AS MODEL DATA ZERO/S IN ON TRENDS WE MAY NEED TO ADD FREEZING PRECIP
INTO THE FORECAST.

MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON THE SLOPPY SIDE
AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN VIA BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF. RAIN ONTO A MELTING SNOW PACK WILL BRING AN EARLY SPRING FEEL
AS OPPOSED TO LATE NOVEMBER.

MONDAY...COLDER AIR WRAPS BACK INTO THE AREA AND EXPECTING THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW. BY 00Z TUES 850MB
TEMPS THAT WERE UP AROUND +6C SAT NIGHT/SUN WILL BE DROPPING BACK
INTO THE -4C TO -8C RANGE.

A DEEP WINTER FEEL TO START THIS WEEK WILL SWITCH TO A SPRING FEEL
WITH A MELTING SNOW BACK LATE THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING
BACK INTO THE 40S FOR SUNDAY...WHICH IS ACTUALLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014

PERSISTENT IFR TO LIFR VSBYS IN HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT LAN... AND MORE SO AT JXN... AS THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL NOT BE AS NUMEROUS/FREQUENT FARTHER
INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. THAT SAID... WHEN HEAVIER BANDS DO MOVE
OVER LAN AND JXN THE VSBYS MAY STILL DROP BRIEFLY BELOW 1/2 MILE.
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LK MI SHORELINE INCLUDING MKG.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE DEALT WITH BY FUTURE SHIFTS AFTER
THE GALE EVENT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX AND ALL PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME ICE MAY DEVELOP ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS WEEK WITH THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS.
TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH RAIN/SNOW MELT MAY POTENTIALLY CAUSE A FEW MINOR
HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-038-
     043-044-050-056>058-064>066-071>073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ039-
     045-051-059-067-074.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS









000
FXUS63 KGRR 180503
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1203 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014

A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR NOVEMBER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS COLD AIR COMBINED WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THAT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES WILL
PRODUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF U.S.-131 AND
FROM I-96 TO I-94...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOWFALL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO
U.S.-31 ALONG THE LAKESHORE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE AS INTENSE AS
THE CURRENT SNOW SHOWERS.

A POTENTIAL WARMUP IS ON THE WAY FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN TEMPERATURES COULD WARM WELL INTO THE 40S. RAIN WILL
BECOME POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AFTER SOME RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014

NO HEADLINE OR SIGNIFICANT FCST CHANGES ARE NECESSARY THIS
EVENING. KGRR/RGNL RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
WITH BRISK WEST WINDS CARRYING THE BANDS WELL INLAND. SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND STRONG 1000-850 MB CONVERGENCE AT TIMES ALONG
WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN AROUND -17 TO -18 C. CONDITIONS ARE NOT NEARLY
AS BAD ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT... BUT BRISK WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LES BANDS
THAT FAR EAST FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.STORM TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014

WE WILL BE MAINTAINING THE HEADLINES AS IS WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE
THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FCST AS
LATEST TRENDS IN THE DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS
THINKING. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ADD IN A CHC OF THUNDER TO THE FCST
ALONG THE LAKESHORE WITH THE EXTREME INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE
AREA. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS TO RAMP UP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE EVEN
MORE WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW BECOMING LIKELY.

THE CAUSE FOR THE RAMP UP IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WIND IS A SHORT
WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS IL HEADING THIS WAY. INVERSION HEIGHTS
ARE INCREASING AS THIS IS BEING WRITTEN AS IS THE MOISTURE. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND THE AREA
WILL BECOME SOLIDLY UNDER THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW AND CYCLONIC
FLOW AT THAT TIME. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF TUE MORNING. THE 1000-850 MB MEAN LAYER FLOW WILL
REMAIN WRLY THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUE. WE
COULD SEE SOMEWHAT OF A DOMINANT BAND SET UP BETWEEN I-96 AND I-94
AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE LAKE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF THUNDER IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AND A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND DOWNWIND OF THE
WIDEST PART OF THE LAKE. 500 MB TEMPS OF -40 TO -44C /SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPS IN THE NRN HEMISPHERE/ WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE LAKE TEMPS OF +6C OR SO WILL
PRODUCE EXTREME DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY JUST DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE IS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE
THAT ACTUALLY REACHES UP ABOVE THE -20C ISOTHERM.

WE WILL SEE A SLOW AND GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ON TUE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. WE WILL SEE
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER A BIT AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY AT THAT TIME.

WE WILL ALSO SEE THE BAND OF BETTER SNOW SHOWERS SHIFT FROM THE
FAVORED WRLY FLOW AREAS TO MORE SSW FLOW FAVORED AREAS ON TUE NIGHT.
THIS SHIFT IN THE MEAN LAYER FLOW TAKES PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DIVE IN FOR WED. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
RELATIVELY LIGHTER SIDE EARLIER TUE NIGHT BEFORE INTENSIFYING TOWARD
WED MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATE.

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

EVEN AS ONE SNOW EVENT MOVES OUT YET ANOTHER FOLLOWS IN QUICK
SUCCESSION. THIS EVENT MAY WELL NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
IT BUT WE WILL NOT DEAL WITH THIS YET AS IT WOULD LIKELY BE CONFUSED
WITH THE CURRENT EVENT.

WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW CAUSING THIS CURRENT EVENT. AS THAT SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...IT WILL BE CROSSING LAKE
MICHIGAN. THAT WILL RESULT IN SNOW EVENT WITH SHIFTING WINDS...
FIRST SOUTHERLY HEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY...THEN WESTERLY ONCE THE SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED THROUGH
(DURING THE EARLY EVENING). THEN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND DEPARTING
SYSTEM WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE INITIAL PART OF IS EVENT IS A CLASSIC SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT WHICH
WILL FEATURE A NARROW HEAVY SNOW BAND CLOSE THE LAKE SHORE...MOSTLY
NORTH OF SOUTH HAVEN... ON WEDNESDAY FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT LOW LEVEL
CAUSING STRONG CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE DURING THIS TIME. THE
DGZ IN NEARLY TWICE AS DEEP WED AFTERNOON NEAR THEN SNOW BAND THAN
IT WILL BE AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TOMORROW. WHAT LIMITS THIS SNOW BAND
IS IT DOES NOT STAY IN THE SAME PLACE FOR MORE THAN 6 HOURS AND
THERE IS NOT NEARLY AS MUCH INSTABILITY (SURFACE BASED CAPE). EVEN
SO... WITH THE DEEPER MOIST LAYER AND NARROW BAND...I STILL BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE A BAND HAVE HEAVY SNOW FROM SAY GRAND HAVEN TO NORTH
OF LUDINGTON.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS TURN TO THE WEST THE SNOW
BANDS WILL MOVE ONSHORE A SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.
THIS SECOND PART OF THE EVEN WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS OF THURSDAY. WITH 850
TEMPERATURES BELOW -15C AND THE LAKE NEAR 5C... THERE WILL BE MORE
THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT.  THE DGZ REMAINS SATURATED
THROUGH THE EVENT AND THERE IS SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN THE DGZ TOO....SO
LITTLE QUESTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER THE EVEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE SNOW
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWER BANDS... NOT A DOMINANT LAKE BAND SO THE
INTENSITY OF THE SNOW WILL NOT BE AS HIGH. IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD
THROUGH SO WE WILL LIKELY SEE BLOWING SNOW...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL OVER WESTERN SECTIONS NONE THE LESS. I AM THINKING 4 TO 10
INCHES NEAR US-31...NORTH OF SOUTH HAVEN... AND 2 TO 5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE FROM THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014

HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE GOING FORECAST AND FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. AS THE HIGH PASSES TO THE
EAST... WARMER AIR WILL FLOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF
A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. HAVE RAIN AND SNOW
FORECAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER... THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FEEL THE CHANCE OF SNOW IS OVERDONE A LITTLE WITH
THIS WARMER SYSTEM. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN
INCH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A LITTLE WETTER THAN NORMAL
AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S AND NORMAL LOWS
ARE AROUND 30 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014

PERSISTENT IFR TO LIFR VSBYS IN HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT LAN... AND MORE SO AT JXN... AS THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL NOT BE AS NUMEROUS/FREQUENT FARTHER
INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. THAT SAID... WHEN HEAVIER BANDS DO MOVE
OVER LAN AND JXN THE VSBYS MAY STILL DROP BRIEFLY BELOW 1/2 MILE.
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LK MI SHORELINE INCLUDING MKG.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014

WE WILL BE LEAVING THE GALE WARNING AS IS WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE.
LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT GALES WILL BE OCCURRING
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE COMING UP ON SCHEDULE
ACROSS THE AREA. GALES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING DOWN INTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CATEGORY. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WED AND WED NIGHT TIME
FRAME. THIS WILL BE DEALT WITH AFTER THIS CURRENT EVENT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
RIVER FLOWS AND LEVELS ARE RUNNING GENERALLY AROUND AVERAGE. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY...AND COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT ALLOW FOR ANY MELTING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
A LITTLE BIT OF ICE COULD START FORMING ON THE STREAMS AND RIVERS
WITH THE VERY COLD AIR MASS FOR NOVEMBER IN PLACE.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HYDRO TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS WE ARE
LOOKING AT A WARM UP ALONG WITH RAINFALL. SNOW MELT ALONG WITH THE
RAINFALL COULD END UP IN THE RIVERS AND INCREASING THE FLOWS. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS ON THE DEGREE OF WARMTH
AND AMOUNT OF RAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056>058-064>066-071>073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ039-040-
     045-046-051-052-059-067-074.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAURENS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ








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